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theturncoattournament · 5 months ago

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The Best New Main Character Tournament (Round 4/Quarterfinal Poll)

Note: I recommend reading this blog's pinned post that explains what this tournament is about before voting

The four most voted for characters on this poll will proceed to the semifinal round; the two least voted for will be knocked out of the competition.

PROPAGANDA:

Palamedes Sextus- You'd have Palamedes and Camilla solving the mysteries of Canaan House and tracking down the murderer, you've got his emotional turmoil at being rejected by the love of his life, you have his sheer bafflement at his good friend Protesilaus taking up a vow of silence and repeatedly attacking this other huge, silent weirdo who showed up. It would also be the best detective novel ending, in that he'd give his solution speech about who the culprit was and how they did it, then immediately explodes. Book over.

Descole- He's the antagonist of the prequel trilogy of games and often helps add to the mysteries to solve. I would love to see his perspective of all he did throughout those games.

Garrus Vakarian- None submitted

Eli 'Weevil' Navarro- Francis Capra is a fantastic and immensely underrated actor and he deserves his own show. Weevil is truly the best character and the under-utilised potential of the parts of his life that should have been relevant and weren't will haunt me until I die (worse because he was a major character/series regular). Please, I am begging you, force Rob Thomas to put his money where his mouth is in actually reckoning with the class (+race) inequality the show is always nominally condemning and then reinforcing every time they give racist millionaire characters a giant narrative spotlight and a seventeenth chance instead of paying attention to their POC regulars with so much more potential

Vee- There is just so much potential! It could be a cute cartoon about an awkward little shapeshifter trying to behave like a human. From time to time, a backstory episode about her past as a basilisk and her escape out of the Boiling Isles. Their closest friend is Masha, who slowly discovers their secret, and becomes their confident, like MoringMark Comics from 2022-10-20. (And of course, romance). With the return of Luz in the the human realm, it could be more psychological, exploring complex feeling toward her (envy, but also affection). But yeah, imagine a cute slice-of-life cartoon with the cutest character of the show! Completely in the mood found family, "weirdos staying together" and "being understood"!

Kim Kitsuragi- None submitted

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sneakyhomunculous · 5 years ago

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Thrill of the Hunt

Hey everyone, I just want to get some of my thoughts down onto the page. This is mostly just me rambling my thoughts on the current state of OP and Competitive Magic in general. Disclaimer: I have been a lifelong competitive player. My first games of magic were FNM booster drafts 15+ years ago against some unbelievable competition. From day 1 I was drawn in to the fierce competition in the game. I know that I am privileged; Undeniably lucky and advantaged in every way before I even get in the que. I’m a white cis male who grew up middle class in the US with supportive parents. I was able to spend my free time cutting my teeth on Magic Online and traveling to local PTQs/GPs. But this post is not going to be about where you are from; or what challenges you may face personally; or what hurdles your demographic have had to overcome. All of that stuff is completely true and valid. I will touch on it lightly, and I am happy that things are being done to address some of those issues in Magic. That being said; This is going to be solely about the drive for fair competition that burns inside of every single one of us. Inside every single person reading this; Every person that has played this game for probably half of their life or more. For every person that has spent 1000s of waking and/or dreaming hours thinking about decklists, new formats, new ideas, old formats, old theory, new theory; All the while completely forgetting that their is any life outside of competitive Magic The Gathering. For every person that plays this game in search of something they can’t really define. It’s not exactly the validation of self improvement; or the highs of the good finishes. Or even the good times with friends and all the learning we get to do along the way. It’s simply the constant burning desire for competition. Going into battle against a sea of villains who are all fighting for the same thing you are. That upper hand in this ruthless game of marginal edges. I was never part of the “Old Boys Club”. I was always an outsider; a local end boss at best. In my 15 years of being a competitive player; I have played in only 20 or so GPs, 7 PTs and a few SCG tournaments (5 or so). I have always had other commitments (School, Full time Job, Wife and 3 kids), and I never focused 100% on magic as a job or anything. Despite all of this, I was always totally enthralled by the Pro Tour. I know I am not alone. I spent years traveling to PTQs in the South and found that there were 100s of local players who wanted the exact same thing as me. 1000s worldwide all chasing the same dream. The dream of mastering this beautiful game and moving up to the very highest level. The Pro Tour was an enigma; until you played in it. Once you did, you realized how right you were all along. The entire reason you played the game was for your shot in those 16 (17! 👌🏻💪🏻) rounds. The current state of the PT/Wizards Organized Play is still mostly a disaster. Everyone sort of knows this, but it seems that most people don’t care to admit it. (They usually either benefit directly from the current system, or they are incentivized to “be cordial” in hopes of one day benefiting from the climb up the ranks of the popularity contest. They say nothing or even back up the new status quo.) Shoutout to the true hero’s like GerryT and Lucas Berthoud. They benefited from the RNG in the system and still stood up for the fairness of competition. To the Edel’s and Soorani’s; keep fighting the good fight. I will always tell it like it is. At this point they are going further and further into the wrong direction. Magic is completely peaking; unfortunately OP is floundering around hopelessly. The only way to make anything happen right now is to win tournaments. No 2nd places. No top 8s. No good run,nice 11-5 see u in a few months. You have to be ruthless and collect trophies. If you don’t do this, at the moment you are an afterthought. That being said, I am coming for the trophies. When I win the Players Tour Finals 1 and then the World Championship you don’t have to worry; I will still be screaming for organized play to be about open and fair competition. The reality is simple; The highest echelon of competition is now DIRECTLY mingled with one giant absurd petty ridiculous unbelievable comically hilariously awkwardly stupidly infuriating POPULARITY CONTEST. This is mind boggling for so many reasons. It doesn’t have to be this way! No system is ever going to be perfect. It’s impossible to make everyone happy. It’s impossible to be 100% fair. But you could at least fake it? Just try a little bit?? Having invitationals is awesome. Invite Savjz and Day9 and then whoever you want to help out with the diversity issue. But don’t tie them directly in to the Pro Tour results??? And then make them 3x important as the Paper Pro tour Results???? It literally makes so little sense and is so infurating I cannot believe how little has been said about it. I know Wily and Lucas Kai etc. talk about it often. But 25+ of the MPL all pretty much silent on it. Even the people on the bubble aren’t raising hell!!? I can’t imagine being someone who grinds and did well in multiple paper MCs this year, who is now on the bubble of rivals or MPL (that they found out about randomly over halfway through the season) and not invited to most or any of these Arena MCs!! They are OBSCENE tournaments already; 750K prizepool for a small group of players. The EV is unbelievable. And they just PILE on the Mythic Points or whatever BS system they use. It’s like worth double or more points of the Paper PTs 🤦🏻‍♂️😂😵 Siggy and I were talking while I was waiting to play my Quarterfinal match of the last fucking Pro Tour. I was in the top 8!! Siggy had just gotten 10th. I told him how bittersweet it is. With PTs mattering less and no1 caring anymore; I don’t feel as excited as I expected I would. It helped me focus as I know that winning is the only result that matters. I can get 2nd and no1 will remember me. I will not be invited to the next Pro Tour on Arena in a month. In 2 paper PTs from now I will not be there at all unless I top 8 the next one too!! (Or I get on the good side of some Wizards people maybe, or up my clout and twitter followers.) People say this stuff as a joke, but even in this PT top 8 I felt alienated a bit. Ondrej was getting literal hugs from all of the staff before the quarters even started because they know him from inviting him to things, because he calls himself Honey and smiles and is nice and streams. I love Ondrej and I believe he’s a really great player and deserves to be playing these tournaments anyway; It’s just wild to me that at the literal highest possible level of competition it’s still about some things other than the competition. Lucas and others have covered it, but in no other games/esports is this the case. When you watch the TI; or even the Fortnite World Championship... You don’t see famous players or clout farmers. You see unbelievable talent and dedication, the absolute best of the best who clearly earned their way. You don’t see Marshmello and Drake; or even Ninja and his buddies. You see 100 kids between the ages of 13-20 you’ve never heard of; who are all so unbelievably good it will give you the chills. Siggy said something along the lines of “Yeah it is really weird; I got 10th for 5k which is just an unbelievable result obviously. But the Arena PT next month is worth like 5x. You get 7500$ for dead last! And so many points!!” Congrats Siggy, but I won’t be playing in the Arena PT. Neither will 1000s of players who have played in the handfuls of paper PTs over the past few years. SEPERATE THEM! Have all the Arena Invitationals you want. Spend as much money on that as you want. We can take the slaps in the face it’s no big deal. “250k PLAYERS TOUR FINALS! Qualify by winning FIRST PLACE in a GP this season!!! Only 128 Players very exclusive wow wow cool we have to kill the pro tour to make this happen but it’s awesome woohoooooo” “Cominggggg to Long Beach Californiaaaaaaa Your 3Million$$$$$ Arena Mythic Professional Tour Championship of the Universe!!!!!!!!!!! 38 Unbelievable challengers will be taking on this new format and chopping up the 3 million$ plus 100s of Mythic pojnts catapaulting them all into the MPL conversation while you argue on twitter about who should have been invited; as if it fucking matters. As if we read that shit at all!!! If we fucking cared about what you think maybe we would respond to you sometimes 😂💪🏻😬👌🏻👌🏻💯” Just relax; stop giving away rivals/MPL points in tournaments that are invite based and already so high profile with massive prize pools. (This doesn’t affect me at all by the way; I am not even close on points it’s just very obviously the right thing to do and it’s unbelievable they aren’t acknowledging it and just continuing to invite whoever they feel like). Ok enough clowning... but for real though. What in the fuck is this popularity contest bullshit?? How is this being joked about so lightly, it’s an abomifuckingnation! Invite whoever you want, just pick some people based on some predetermined merit. Give people a chance. Something to shoot for. Have open tournaments for people from Australia and Latin America. Have open qualifier tournaments for females/NB Invite people who deserve to be there from previous PT performance like Allen Wu or Eli Loveman or Matt Sperling or Sebastian Pozzo or TheSneakyhomunculous or Jack MF Dobbin or Lan d Ho and Mark herberholz for all I care. Just give the people some feedback on anything ever! Ok enough is actually enough I could write forever about OP and what I wish they would do. But really all we can ask for is fair competition and clear communication. People will complain about anything and everything, but if Wizards would just be open and honest while communicating and promoting fair competition at the highest levels... I couldn’t give 2 shits how little money the tournaments pay or where we have to play them. We just want to have a fighting chance to play against Paulo and Luis and Kai and Yuki and Allen Wu and Zvi and Gab and Seth and Li and Lucas and Shota. Aside: Arena is also a disaster at this point. How can they not implement a friends list? Any programming/computer scientist people know what the fuck is going on? It’s been 2 years now and they are still printing $ faster than a magic streamer from outside the US with 10k+ twitter followers can print with 500000 Arena PTs on the horizon! And they still can’t fix anything ever? How is there no spectator mode or tourney mode? How is building a sealed deck still impossible? How is the best fucking computer you can find lagging after 5 matches no matter what? We gotta figure this shit out m8. Arena should have nice big competitive in client tournaments every day. At least one or two a week. Instead we can’t even draft the fucking current format? The bots can’t fucking click on Merfolk Secretkeeper? 3 cards in pack they really click deafening silence over the secretkeeper???? God dammit GG’s no re sorry u had to read this. TL;DR Old Man Yells at Clouds

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tobin19641109-blog · 5 years ago

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volleyball sweep over spartans In 2019

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junker-town · 7 years ago

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2016 was EMU’s best football season since the 1980s, and 2017 could top it

How close are we getting to the Eagles’ ceiling?

This preview originally published March 27 and has since been updated.

Plenty of nerds have gotten into sports analytics with the thought of being able to expose everything that old-school coaches and analysts don't understand. Bill James found material for such a thing in baseball, and we've seen shifts in how basketball is played as the nerds have infiltrated the sport.

Football's trickier. As more granular sets of data — comprehensive charting data, player tracking data, etc. — become available, maybe we'll get closer to changing the game. But for now, especially from a projections standpoint, football still features plenty of mysteries.

Looking at the numbers, there was no reason to think Eastern Michigan had any hope of improving in 2016. The Eagles had been among the surest things in all of football, and for all the wrong reasons.

In a conference that features far more parity than most, EMU had only ranked higher than ninth in the MAC in S&P+ once between 2006 and 2015. In that span, they had finished with either one or two wins six times. Their offense oscillated between below average and awful; the defense was almost always awful.

That Chris Creighton took on the EMU job was admirable, if potentially foolish. The former Ottawa, Wabash, and Drake head coach had three times created something out of very little. He twice brought Ottawa to the NAIA playoffs, and he twice got Wabash to the Division III quarterfinals. He won at least eight games four times at Drake. His ability to craft solid teams in schools that weren’t going to feature standout talent was noteworthy.

Still, he was 3-21 in his first two years at EMU. He had taken over for Ron English, and while he had found a little offensive traction in 2015, his defense was the worst in FBS. EMU returned a decent level of production in 2016, but ... it was production from a bad team.

The only reason for hope in 2016 was the mythical third-year leap.

If something big is going to happen, the odds are good that it will have happened by the end of a head coach's third year on the job.

Since 2006, 46 teams have improved by at least 14 adjusted points per game (per S&P+) from one year to the next. That's about four to five big leaps per season for the entire country. From this group of 46, 36 were led by coaches that were either in their first (10), second (13), or third (13) years.

Quite often, we don't see third-year magic coming.

If experience and depth are keys to the third-year jump, EMU will have a lot. The Eagles return their starting quarterback, an explosive sophomore running back, four of their top six receiving targets, and every offensive lineman, and they are loaded with juniors and seniors at every level of the defense.

You can learn most of what you need about a football team by looking at recent history, returning production, and recruiting. Those are the factors involved in my S&P+ projections, and they can hone in on how a team is going to perform. But those good-old, intangible qualities like “culture” and “chemistry” still matter. And the margins between success and failure — when you’ve got 11 players on the field, and your guys have about the same size and athletic qualities as your opponent’s — are minuscule.

So third-year leaps sometimes happen. And one definitely took place in Ypsilanti. In terms of adjusted points per game, the defense improved by eight points, the offense by 5.5. A team that had managed to play in (and lose) two one-possession games in 2015, played in seven in 2016 and won five.

EMU wasn’t great, but the Eagles looked like a real FBS program. They ranked 82nd in S&P+, ahead of power conference bowl teams like Boston College and Maryland. They beat a Wyoming that nearly won the Mountain West. They beat MAC bowl teams Ohio and Central Michigan. They beat teams, period. After going 7-41 from 2012-15, they went 7-6.

And they did it with a team young enough to return almost everybody. The offensive line has some restructuring to do, but the quarterback and skill guys are back, as are nine defensive starters.

After years of finding out EMU’s floor was lower than any FBS program’s should be, we might now find out something else: the Eagles’ ceiling.

2016 in review

2016 EMU statistical profile.

EMU was one of the least volatile teams in the country. The Eagles did have a peak (Wyoming) and a couple of valleys (Missouri, Miami (Ohio)), but in nine of 13 games, they played between the 34th and 59th percentiles. And their opponent-adjusted averages were about the same against better teams as they were against worse teams.

EMU vs. S&P+ top 75 (1-4) — Avg. percentile performance: 39% (~top 80) | Avg. yards per play: Opp 6.6, EMU 5.6

EMU vs. No. 76-plus (6-2) — Avg. percentile performance: 44% (~top 70) | Avg. yards per play: EMU 6.1, Opp 5.4

Volatility is often a sign of youth, of a team honing in on its upside. Perhaps the fact that EMU established stability with few senior starters is a sign that the Eagles were already close to their upside. Still, this level of maturity, despite a midseason quarterback change and an injury to 2015’s best offensive player, was striking.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Plans change quickly. EMU headed into 2016 with an exciting backfield of quarterback Brogan Roback and running back Shaq Vann. Roback, a former star recruit, had thrown for 2,300 yards in 2015 while Vann had a freshman season with 850 combined rushing and receiving yards.

Roback got himself suspended for a violation of team rules in August and missed the first two games. Vann rushed for 156 yards in the season opener against Mississippi Valley State but was lost for the season with injury in Week 2.

In Roback’s absence, junior college transfer Todd Porter thrived, throwing for 458 yards against MVSU and Missouri. He played well against Charlotte, but threw four picks against Wyoming. Roback subbed in and led the Eagles on a game-winning drive. The two split time against BGSU the next week, and Porter didn’t throw a pass the rest of the year.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Brogan Roback

That EMU was equipped to handle uncertainty at QB and injury at running back was impressive. But Roback’s return — and his ability to avoid picks (seven in 372 passes compared to Porter’s nine in 142) — sparked an efficiency boom. EMU ranked 30th in passing success rate and sixth in Adj. Sack Rate. The Eagles also ranked 35th in stuff rate (runs tops at or behind the line). Maybe their biggest offensive strength was the ability to avoid moving backward.

We’ll learn how much of that strength had to do with the line. All-conference tackles Cole Gardner and Andrew Wylie are gone, as are center Jake Hurcombe and part-time starting guard Darien Terrell. Three players with starting experience return, including junior guard Jimmy leatiota, but if the Eagles suffer more glitches up front, the efficiency could falter.

Luckily, EMU will get its big-play guys back. Vann rushed for 129 yards in the Eagles’ randomly awesome 2015 win at Wyoming, and he was averaging 6.4 yards per play for the season until a couple of late-season duds.

In Vann’s 2016 absence, a couple explosive weapons emerged. Three-star sophomore Breck Turner had moments — three carries for 50 yards against Wyoming, 17 for 107 against BGSU, eight for 48 against Old Dominion — and receiver Dieuly Aristilde came out of nowhere to become a major option. After recording one catch for 20 yards in the first eight games, he caught 24 for 472 over the final five.

Vann’s return could change Ian Eriksen’s role. Eriksen became EMU’s go-to rusher, falling forward for three to five yards at a time. Vann has more upside, but Eriksen offers stability, as do receivers Sergio Bailey II and Antoine Porter, who combined for a 54 percent success rate over 13 targets per game. Big senior Johnnie Niupalau had a 57 percent success rate as well.

With Roback distributing the ball to diverse weapons, EMU could be poised to improve on its No. 58 ranking in Off. S&P+. Hell, if Aristilde’s breakout was a sign of things to come, this could be a top-30 offense. But it all depends on that line.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Ian Eriksen

Defense

It’s all about expectations. When Neal Neathery’s 2015 UTSA defense ranked 104th in Def. S&P+, it was a disappointment. After ranking 61st and 53rd over the previous two years, Neathery couldn’t engineer attacking quality with a new batch of Roadrunner starters.

Neathery’s 2016 EMU defense ranked 102nd. And it was a thrill.

Neathery was Creighton’s coordinator at Drake, and the duo were reunited in Ypsilanti last fall. Neathery probably didn’t get to be as aggressive as he wanted to be, but he crafted a defense that was excellent at big-play prevention. EMU allowed just 49 rushes over 10-plus yards, 12th in FBS, and allowed a decent 12.4 yards per completion.

Granted, efficiency was a problem. The Eagles allowed the worst success rate in the MAC.

Still, simply being good at anything was a step forward. EMU’s offense and decent special teams unit helped to create solid field position for the defense. And the defense was mostly able to force opponents to work methodically down the field.

From a havoc standpoint, it’s a good news, bad news situation in 2017. EMU boasted an excellent pass rusher in Pat O’Connor (14.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks), which was key to getting off the field on passing downs. He’s gone. So is corner DaQuan Pace, by far last year’s most disruptive corner.

In Anthony Brown, though, Neathery might have the kind of disruptive safety he didn’t last year. Brown combined 7.5 TFLs with five passes defensed in 2015 before missing last season, and he joins what could be a hell of a set of safeties. Seniors Jason Beck and Ikie Calderon and sophomore Vince Calhoun have quite a bit to offer there. And last year’s No. 2 and 3 corners, sophomores Kevin McGill and Jalen Phelps, still have room to grow. Three-star JUCO transfer Shaq Jones might be able to help, too.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Ikie Calderon

In theory, the pass rush could still have some oomph; ends Jeremiah Harris and Maxx Crosby also combined for 14.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks, and redshirt freshman Justice Williams was a three-star recruit.

Neathery’s 4-2-5 defense is best when the line can generate disruption without help from the linebackers — whose isn’t? — and EMU linebackers only combined for 8.5 tackles for loss last year. If that number goes up, that might not necessarily be a good thing.

Special Teams

EMU didn’t get much out of its return game but still ranked a decent 65th in Special Teams S&P+ because of two legs: Austin Barnes’ and Paul Fricano’s. Barnes averaged 43.5 yards per punt with 27 of 63 boots landing inside the 20; Fricano was automatic on place-kicks inside of 40 yards and decent outside of 40.

Both return in 2017 [update: actually, Barnes has transferred to ECU]. A little bit more damage in the return game, and EMU will have a downright decent special teams unit.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 1-Sep Charlotte 127 13.8 79% 9-Sep at Rutgers 92 -3.9 41% 23-Sep Ohio 103 4.2 60% 30-Sep at Kentucky 41 -17.1 16% 7-Oct at Toledo 59 -14.5 20% 14-Oct at Army 102 -1.2 47% 21-Oct Western Michigan 74 -4.1 41% 26-Oct at Northern Illinois 86 -4.8 39% 2-Nov Ball State 90 0.9 52% 8-Nov at Central Michigan 97 -2.4 45% 15-Nov at Miami (Ohio) 88 -4.5 40% 21-Nov Bowling Green 95 2.2 55%

Projected S&P+ Rk 96 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 64 / 115 Projected wins 5.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -4.3 (82) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 126 / 124 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 1 / 3.0 2016 TO Luck/Game -0.8 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 80% (92%, 69%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 6.4 (0.6)

The gold standard for EMU at the FBS level is 1987. That year, a bruising run game — Gary Patton, Bob Foster, and quarterback Ron Adams combined for 2,200 yards — and solid defense led to a 9-2 finish and California Bowl bid. Once there, the 17-point underdog Hurons took down San Jose State via a late 32-yard pass from Adams to Craig Ostrander.

It was EMU’s only bowl win and one of only two bowl appearances. Granted, with today’s bowl proliferation, Jim Harkema’s 1980s teams would have reached more than one — they had a winning record every year from 1986-89 — but still, this this program has struggled to generate traction through the years.

If it’s ever going to happen, though, why wouldn’t it happen now?

Yes, EMU has some questions on the lines. Yes, the Eagles were iffy defensively. Yes, they may have already come pretty close to their ceiling. But what about this team suggests it won’t be EMU’s best since the 1980s?

Those anti-social stats have an answer to that question, and it’s basically: “Because they’re EMU.” The Eagles still have little recent success to fall back on, and while Creighton has put exciting players on the field, recruiting rankings aren’t the Eagles’ friend.

Sometimes it takes projections a while to catch up, though. EMU was projected dead last in FBS last year but clicked. I’m not going to go crazy and predict EMU to win the MAC, but the Eagles have an excellent chance of exceeding their No. 96 projection.

Still, the schedule is a bit of a buzzkill. EMU must play at Rutgers, Kentucky, Toledo, Army, NIU, CMU, and Miami (Ohio), i.e. five bowl teams, four potential top-half-of-the-MAC teams, and two power conference squads. Nine of 12 games have a win probability between 39 and 60 percent, and EMU will probably have to win at least five of them to bowl again.

I bet it happens. I find myself semi-confident in an Eastern Michigan team. This is a strange world sometimes.

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