#because it's so important to what's wrong with the ST that she is totally irrelevant to the actual victory

[frumfrumfroo]

I see so many stupid takes on what a “revised” ST storyline would look like. Granted, almost all of these are still better than the dumpster fire that is TROS. But a lot of these still don’t make sense because a lot of people still miss what I think you articulate so well in many of your metas: that the ST is about the Skywalker family, the unresolved trauma, and with Ben Solo as the heir and person who should tie up all the loose ends (I can’t put it as elegantly as you do, but the whole thing you have repeatedly said about him living and having children, reconciliation of Anakin and the Skywalker “name” to society, repairing the unresolved issues Leia had with her father, etc etc). I just saw another stupid take where Rey is Obi Wan’s secret daughter who has been abandoned (wow way to go shitting on Obi Wan’s character) and therefore has anger issues, hates the Jedi and worships Vader, Ben is not force sensitive and grows up a diplomat learning from Leia, Finn is a Jedi randomly, Poe is a pilot for no reason I can think of or why he even exists, and Rey needs to be saved by Ben (how? Why? Why not by Finn if Finn is the Jedi and Ben is doing just fine in life.) Oh and the dyad is created by Obi and Anakin’s ghosts, and also Rey is asexual bc she is too angry—I support asexual character representation but not if it is a manifestation of maladaptive behaviors rather than a healthy state of being). I mean, all of that could be interesting, maybe in an Obi Wan family saga spinoff series, but I fail to see how this is about the Skywalkers or ties in thematically to the central characters of OT/PT. Like why should we care? I suppose if we learned that Leia did reconcile with her father, and the galaxy at large knew of Anakin’s redemption, and Ben didn’t grow up with this fear of fatalism, fine I can see perhaps that storyline “working” but again...it wouldn’t really be about the Skywalkers anymore, who in that version seem to all be well adjustsd, happy fufilled functional people. But why not then just call that story a complete new series instead of a sequel...(and btw that “version” has almost no mention of Luke, and most OG fans are interested in seeing where their original heros ended up etc etc). I fail to see why Rey even needs to be around in these “alternate” versions. Just make a completely new story set in SW world but not a “sequel” then, that would be fine. Anyway, every time I see stuff like this, I come to your blog to re-read your metas because you are one of the very few people who GETS the story. Please preach some more to the choir (if inspiration strikes). I need to be reminded that there actual people in the fandom who cares about Ben, the Skywalkers, thematic coherence, and GOOD STORYTELLLING. Anyway thank you so much for your detailed and insightful analyses. They are truly a delight and a balm. If it’s not too much trouble, could you by chance link to some of your own fave metas you’ve written, or that you think are the most important to understanding the ST and Ben etc? Do you recommend any other bloggers whose metas on Ben and ST you feel are good and enjoy? Thank you!

Thank-you so much, anon! 🥰

Yes, the problem with so many ‘fix-it’ ideas or ideas of what the ST ‘should’ have been is that they have nothing to do with the Skywalker Saga or its themes. If you just want to write about new characters in the GFFA and not meaningfully continue the same narrative about the family and the question the Skywalkers exist to ask, then it’s not part of the same story. Which is fine, but it’s not a sequel. You can’t unpick the end of RotJ and destroy the resolution of the original character arcs if you’re then going to make them glorified cameos to give your unrelated newbies a pep talk without providing a fuller and more complete statement of the original message and the original arcs. That’s an either/or choice. Either actually make a sequel and deal with the implications of that or don’t.

The most stark contrast between TLJ and TFA/TROS is that TLJ is written as a fully equal and living part of the story, it treats the characters as characters and takes for granted that it is part of the saga not just a tribute to it. There are elements that are meta, it does comment, but it doesn’t approach the OT heroes as icons frozen in amber incapable of change or allow its new characters to act like fans of the films rather than people who live in the universe. And this is why it’s so much better and so much more memorable. It’s an actual story which stands on its own two feet.

Probably my most key posts on SW’s themes and worldview are in the tags space crime and punishment and the legacy. My Ben tag covers a lot those two miss and also has reblogs from other people whose meta I would really recommend (especially benperorsolo). This is a round up I did mostly about Rey’s arc/place in the story, but it’s pre-tros and missing some links. Her tag has more on sw protagonists and why I think none of the ‘alternatives’ people offer for Rey Nobody and Reylo work.

I think I linked most of my individual favourite posts in this answer lol.

[llycaons]

I finished lof !!! I had such a great time, it’s a fun show with a sweet ending, nothing too heavy or complicated. about 50/51 -

lbr what was even happening during these past few episodes? major plot points and antagonist motivations that are brought up only at the very end of the show? protags making massive leaps of logic that have barely any evidence? the complete disappearance of the five tokens despite their sentimental value to several of the characters? sts battling a bell while his shadow self contemplates a go piece that is never explained? xy drugging his fiancee so he can die without putting her at risk???

the storm scene was really good and had great lines but he looked so silly sitting there and then tipping over ndsfsha no it’s fine they’re cute I’m happy

I wonder if wyb based any of his performance on what xz did as wwx. their mannerisms feel similar

ying hecong!!! bringing poison to the battle!!

yeah you can’t go wrong with a big battle as a finale. it really does feel like redwall. redwall fans, watch lof

zf’s battle with sts was really well-done! the fight scene at the gates was also excellent but her one-on-one in the courtyard with the bells felt so significant, just perfect for a big finale scene. the editing was pretty good too!

that ending where everyone is in their place and paired up and happy and the parents are alive and zf/xy are travelling and then teach students...tongming coming back briefly and asking to see his disciple...it’s nice

I do not know what lord gantang and xy were talking about wrt the go pieces. that’s fine. im just glad both her parents made it and are okay and at the strongholds. community family etc.

it’s really cool how chuchu has her own thing going on I just wish li sheng wasn’t there with her. but he’s a good leader! he went through a lot of growth, maybe even more than zf

while I agree zf’s arc kind of revolves around xy, almost all of his revolves around her too. he based many of his decisions on her, learned to stop running away so much because of her, found his home and purpose because that’s where she was. his wandering/attachment to his freedom and the scene where he avenged his father are kind of his only other motivations? while she has justice and her sword forms

I did like it more when they were both on their own and dealing with things without taking into account each other tho

the villains were SO FUN where else can I find someone like tong tianyang with his eyepatch and his chewing the scenery and his flair for dramatics

sts was a really great villain. intimidating. cold but with a partner he cared about. kind of sexy. totally murderous. his actor did a great job.

the plot kind of wandered around a bit. I thought the show started off really strong and it was at its weakest when it strayed away from characters connected to 48 strongholds. I wish we spent more time there! home base! it was such an important place and it would have been nice to soent more time with its people and learn more about it.

mxq should have lived...and ninth madam duan. otherwise I wasn’t too upset with all the mentor deaths. I’m glad li jinrong made it

okay 51 is so funny first there’s third prince trying to shoot a rabbit, I knew he was homophobic I just KNEW it, cut to sts holding it like a pet with his mysterious villain powers, then third prince tries to run but trips over a rock like the useless idiot he is, then he gets taken captive, and it literally does not matter at all?

I guess the idea was that sts wanted to overthrow the dynasty but zichen being held hostage made zero difference to any of the character’s actions and did not matter to the finale at all and also he never showed up again sjadksjadlasjdsd irrelevant to the end huh

actually the big adventure, battle, happy ending really does remind me of fma too. it’s a good adventure series! not exactly a character drama, but super enjoyable

like I really wish li yan had developed more but most of the characters were fairly static. ych changed drastically into a much more likeable and helpful person right after meeting YJ and LY, but besides him, I guess zf, li sheng, and xy were the only characters to really change

and I really think zf should have had more development and more internality! she was the main character of a show that has almost 50 hours of runtime! whereas some show are barely a few hours long and their protags undergo massive changes (see: otgw’s wirt). so it’s a shame she was so one-dimensional. when i started the show, I was so excited to meet an arrogant and tough female mc who took no bullshit. I guess her arc would be to learn to value things outside her martial arts? hero ji talked about that a little, I thought they’d come back to it

the romance was really sweet!! I liked it from the beginning although some of the scenes were uncomfortable since xy is older than zf and initially much more experienced while she was this naive newcomer to the outside world. and I wish he’d actually talked with her instead of drugging her in 50. but overall they were really cute! they had chemistry they were friends they were totally devoted to each other they got married!

the LY/YJ/YCH trio was great. I kind of saw it coming that LY and YJ would get paired off but ah well, they’re cute. does ych not use poison anymore as a doctor? that was such a unique trait I liked it

the end where everyone, in every scene, was talking about how they’ve brought peace to the people and the common people don’t have to worry about war anymore and HEY DID YOU HEAR the heroes have brought peace to the common people THE PEOPLE CAN LIVE IN PEACE no that’s significant it really is

[westcoastprancer]

My Auto-Spaz-Ography

***WARNING - WAY TOO MUCH UNNECESSARY PROFANITY***

Getting past the only child bullshit...sue me I guess? Not my fault my parents could only handle one of me. Pretty annoying growing up hearing from morons that I must be a spoiled little shit...

Can’t really argue there. Aside from self-inflicted hunger (you know...that junior high self image bullshit..starve and lose 5 lbs in a weekend), I’ve never gone hungry. I’ve never been cold, without clothes, or a roof over my head. I was taught values. So yeah, I am fucking spoiled rotten. No apologies there.

People who continuously stay “stuck” royally piss me off. These weirdos are toxic. Avoid them at all costs. They will not change. You will thank me for this piece of advice sometime in your life. Everybody’s got a problem. So do I. Set goals for yourself. Get the fuck off your sad ass every couple weeks. Find your best friend (if you don’t have one of those...you should seriously consider working on finding one) get trashed, talk it out and let that shit go for a while. If you’re stuck in a rut for more than 2-3 months, get help. Seriously. It’s not embarrassing. It’s way more shitty in the long run when you turn out to be the aforementioned person who just stays fucking “stuck”. On another note, subject of the week has been middle aged divorced broads with kids and how sly and bitchy they are. If they go ape shit on me before getting their facts straight, imagine what they do to all these poor men? No fucking wonder a good, non hot dog throwing down hallway status, loyal, no bullshit broad like me can’t find a solid dude. The good dudes are out there getting berated by these broads they knocked up and can’t get out of it now because...you know...the kids and stuff. I’m glad I took a different path. Can’t imagine being in that desperate place looking for affection because I am 37-47 year old wrinkly, loosey goosey broad thinking I was tossed aside by a shitty man, when I am the nutbag...just looking for attention. It’s easy to get laid. No strings. No problems. Many people make it way too complicated. My friend’s brother is hilarious. He is kinda a douche and I love his stories about profiling chicks. My favorite was when he told this broad at the bar she looked beautiful and she said how he made her day! (First red flag) They go to exchange numbers and she once again tells him what a nice time she had meeting him ( nothing wrong with that) but then goes on daily wishing him a good day. That’s another desperate sign. Come to find out...middle aged. Divorced. Kids. Lonely in the panties. You know the drill. I used to host this radio show called Cryin’ Lovin’ Laughin’ or Leavin’ so I learned these things sort of young. You remember the patterns of people. You know warning signs of crazy. Here’s the most invaluable lesson, most people are batshit crazy. Keep the wall up a while. Test people. I have caught so many good people (so I thought) in lies through the years. Even little irrelevant lies. It doesn’t matter if it’s a friend, relative, colleague, or significant other. When you catch someone in a lie of even the smallest, you wonder what else they are capable of lying about. It changes everything. Be like me. Don’t lie. Sometimes it’s hard, but then you have nothing to hide and having the truth on your side keeps you out of some really shitty situations.Even if it is so embarrassing and you have to put a towel over your head to face the truth...do it. If you don’t believe a word of anything else I say...believe me when I tell you about people. The good and the bad. Just take the time to get to know a person. You don’t want a lazy middle aged squinty eyed salmoncake real estate selling Mom moving her and her kids asses into your house all of a sudden. You ain’t that desperate. Oh and dudes, I’m coming for you...don’t act desperate either. Just don’t. I tend to take your sides on this shit because dudes on the other sides of things are usually just happy to be free, so their demeanor is totally different. But that doesn’t mean I won’t flip sides on you if you guys start getting weird. Covid seems to have made everyone crazy.

Even in a good mood, there is nothing better than a super depressing 90’s country song...am I right? It’s that sad shit that always gets me in my damn near non-existent soul. Look, I randomly placed 6th out of 20 on a totally impromptu Roast Battle at the Laugh Factory in LA one night. One of the roastmasters told me I did so well for my first time because I have no soul. HA HA HA...that one fucking stuck with me. Back to the point - if you can’t sit down with a couple good homies now and then and blast “Alibis” on 10 while chugging Crown, you should really address some things in your monotonous life. Just sayin for someone who doesn’t do the bar scene much anymore and barely has feelings...I know every color of every neon sign. I’m always hashin out a heartache in the back of my mind. Makes me remember not to go there ever again. People suck. I feel like I have already mentioned this. I’m not a “hard” person. I’m a realist. I don’t want to miss fantastic opportunities with people, but I also know those people are few and far between so I really keep my guard up. The right people always tear it down in time. 

People who get offended by profanity seriously piss me off more than a hive of wasps chasing me. Let me be clear...if I wasn’t dropping at least 72 f-bombs a day...I’m not sure where I would be in life. It’s turning all negative events in my life into positivity. I mean when you think about the F word. No matter how you slice or dice it...it does have a positive meaning in any context. “Go fuck yourself.” - Ok! “Fuck that!” - With what?! “Fuck You!” - Time and place please? Etc… Do you know what I am fucking saying?

Seriously asked my father the other day why he didn’t own Hilton chains or something. I’m sick of this fucking sweaty ass work too hard lifestyle with hardly any time to do fun shit. The idea of being some stuck up heiress with holes in my pockets sound fucking fantastic to me sometimes. Maybe just not the stuck up part. Could you imagine me that way? Snap my fingers and a drink comes! First class flights to St. Croix with my inner posse.  Living the goddamn dream. Me and my doggies on a private island!

I’ve become a bit dramatic, I think. For an extremely hard headed Portagee, I can still call myself out when needed. It’s kinda weird not living alone anymore. I’ve got a badass homie around now (wish I would have met years ago) who actually gives a shit how my day was. So I kinda get called out now on my bullshit. (Side note: It’s important to keep company around you who doesn’t enable your negative traits. Your best friends will call you on your shit and help you grow.) Sometimes I’ll lay down and pout all day over some shit that is NOTHING. Just get stoned and forget the fuck about it. I’m sure this is something I’ve been doing for years. Never caught it til now. Checklist to work on. No one likes even a small percentage of a drama queen. Yuck.

Amazing the shit I think of while stoned. What’s the point of dating? Attach yourself to another person for life? Is that even natural? Attach yourself to yourself...not American Pie style you pervert. Attach yourself to doggies. I cannot stress enough how fulfilling life is raising pups. Watching them grow and learn. I’m not even talking about the ones you raise from babies. Even at an older age, your dog will still learn and grow with mental stimulation and affection. It’s so amazing to watch the new things they learn and pick up on. If you treat your dogs well, they will treat you double as well until death do you part. Sure, it’s shitty you get so attached and they don’t live very long, but it teaches you perseverance. True value of cherishing your pals and moving on in your life always keeping a piece of them with you. Sounds fucking gut wrenching sad. It is, but I promise you the time you spend with your pups outweighs the sadness in the end.( If you’re planning on spending zero time with your animal, leave your pet in constant confined spaces, starve or beat it...don’t fucking get one. Don’t even get close to one. They are better off in the wild than with your crazy ass. You ain’t right.)

You can’t be a lying dickface all the time and expect everyone to be nice to you. Saw a good one on Family Guy that touched my sweet heart a little. Stewie to Brian: “You’re not my friend. Friends come and go. You’re family. That’s for life.” Sounds so sweet. In fact I wanted to call my bestie and tell him that. Then I snapped out and realized “family” can be a super toxic F word. Sad thing is I have a pretty big “family” on each side, yet the older I get, I have realized my only family is my parents. In fact, I have created my own family full of non-blood relatives. Life is wonderful in the positive environment I have created for myself through the years. It’s amazing to form bonds with amazing people who have no ulterior motives like wills and money. Fucking money brings out the true colors in people. It’s sad. People spend their whole lives trippin balls over money. That must suck. 

Those dorks at Central Catholic. Even at 15 made me laugh like hell. They’d interview the football “stars” getting full rides to Notre Dame and shit. My favorite was when asked about their favorite band... “Creed man. Such great “hard rock” with such powerful, positive messages.” Those dudes are probably miserable in their physical therapists jobs with their cheating whore wives who come home smelling like ratty vaginas. Someone had to fucking say it. Embarrassing confession: “My Sacrifice” is a FANFUCKINGTASTIC song!

I have a hard time with people. I try my best. I always learn and continue to grow. I got that goin for myself. People suck. People are cruel. (3rd time I’ve said this today?)  People take no time to disappoint me for the most part. If you’re kind to me, I will be twice as kind to you. If you’re a fuckface to me, expect me to be an extra double fuck with a cherry on top. Add some nuts too and suck on that shit. I’m a badass person to have in your life and on your team. If you’re lucky enough to make it into my inner circle, I’ll probably be one of the best friend’s you’ve ever made. If you can’t look at yourself in the mirror and see the person that you would like to be friends with, you need to make some changes. It took me a long time to become my own best friend. If you can’t be solid with spending time with yourself, you can’t be solid with anyone and you’ll eventually become a dead weight. Take the time to get to know yourself and work on it...for me it’s constant. I know there is other people with my qualities in the world. If you find one, take the time to learn about them and ease your way into friendship slowly. Actions speak louder than words. Prove yourself to be a good human. Be patient. The best relationship of any type comes with time and work.

Let’s see…

Don’t be a fucking retail investor.

Don’t be a fucking commie.

Don’t be a fucking douchebag. 

Don’t fucking settle.

Don't stop bettering yourself for you and those you care for.

Don’t stop fucking being YOU!

LO

[thisdaynews]

Why Warren’s Big Crowds Are a Big Deal

New Post has been published on https://thebiafrastar.com/why-warrens-big-crowds-are-a-big-deal/

Why Warren’s Big Crowds Are a Big Deal

Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

2020 Elections

The data gurus say her long selfie lines with supporters don’t mean anything. They’re wrong.

After Elizabeth Warren was said to draw a crowd of more than 20,000 people to New York City’s Washington Square Park last week, top political number crunchers were quick to scoff. CNN’s poll analyst Harry Enten vented on Twitter, “Are we really doing this thing on crowd sizes?” HuffPost polling editor Ariel Edwards-Levy did the same: “Good morning, crowd size still is not predictive of electoral results, thank you.” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver said on MSNBC that “crowd sizes are one of the last things I’d look at” when assessing a candidate’s level of support.

Warren has a lot more than crowds going for her these days. She is having her best week of 2020 primary polling yet, seizing the top spot in Monmouth University’s New Hampshire poll on Tuesday and in theDes Moines Register/CNN Iowa poll this weekend. But the crowds did come first, and despite the scoffing, they weren’t irrelevant to her rise.

Story Continued Below

Unlike data gurus, political reporters tend to think that crowd sizes really do matter, and they often write about them in breathless tones. TheNew York Timesin particular has delved deep into what makes Warren’s big rallies so big. TheTimespodcast “The Daily” dissected the “Anatomy of a Warren Rally” from inside the Washington Square Park crowd, and marveled at how Warren’s followers lustily chanted “two cents” in support of a wealth tax, and how determined they were to wait in post-rally photo lines for a snapshot with the candidate. Two months earlier, theTimespublished a multimedia analysis of the complicated “selfie” line logistics (while quibbling that the photos are taken by a Warren staffer, and therefore, are not selfies.)

So who’s right in thisMoneyball-like debate—the reporters who want to assess a candidate and her supporters in person, or the analytics gurus who scoff at the effort? Do crowd sizes matter?

Um, of course they do. No, they’re not instruments that predict the political future. But so what? Nothing is. As Warren is the latest to prove, crowds are a highly effective tool for earning legitimacy and breaking out of the pack. And, just maybe, they matter even more in the social media era, because big crowds can help campaigns build a get-out-the-vote volunteer army.

Our beloved political data nerds aren’t totally wrong, but they are overstating their case. As FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich wrote earlier this month, “Polls are much more accurate at forecasting elections than crowd-size estimates, which don’t tell us all that much.” But polls are not exactly clairvoyant four months before Election Day. And even if crowds aren’t predictive of who’s going to win the nomination, that doesn’t make them meaningless. It’s clear they mean something.

How could Warren be where she is today—first place in Iowa and New Hampshire, second place nationally—without her crowds? She began her campaign in the low single-digits, awkwardly apologizing for trying to prove her Native American ancestry with a DNA test, and suffering from possibly sexist speculation that she lacked “likability.” As her crowds grew into the thousands, and as her selfie lines became tests of endurance, she was presenting visual evidence that many people liked her, and then some. In the view of political scientist Rachel Bitecofer, big crowds are a way to measure a candidate’s charisma. “In fact, it may be the only way to quantify charisma,” Bitecofer says. “And charisma matters.”

Still, Bernie Sanders’ big crowds weren’t enough for him to win in 2016, nor were Howard Dean’s in 2004. The question for Warren and her crowds in 2020 is whether she can turn enough of her rallygoers into effective campaign workers who can get out the vote, in the places where she needs the most help. Not every rallygoer is positioned to do that. Warren may continue to have the biggest crowds. The more important question is: Compared to her progressive insurgent predecessors, will she havebettercrowds?

In a tight race, a strong get-out-the-vote operation is essential, and that requires a field operation that is intimately familiar with the local terrain. In their definitive guidebookGet Out the Vote,political science professors Donald P. Green and Alan S. Gerber wrote: “The more personal the interaction between a campaign and potential voter, the more it raises a person’s chances of voting. Door-to-door canvassing by friends and neighbors is the gold standard mobilization tactic.” Warren’s selfie lines are a digital innovation on how to recruit your supporters to engage in peer-to-peer politicking, through social media sharing of the coveted snapshots.

However, not all volunteers are of equal value. Not only does political science research indicate that friends and neighbors make better canvassers than out-of-towners, but also that canvassing is more effective when volunteers are demographically similar to the targeted voters. And even sophisticated, data-savvy campaigns can have trouble strategically deploying volunteers.

In the 2004 Iowa caucuses, crowd quality beat crowd quantity. Howard Dean had long been generating the biggest crowds that year, and then tried to win in the final weeks by parachuting in his biggest fans from out of state to canvas. Dean’s orange-hat brigade inadvertently advertised to Iowans that his surrogates weren’t their friends and neighbors.

Meanwhile, Dean’s rival John Kerry, during a period when his polls were ebbing, quietly built a team of “captains” who actually knew their fellow Iowans, which helped to propel him to a come-from-behind victory. Political scientist Thomas Schaller commented at the time that the Kerry win showed that while “there is much to be said for building support through a bottom-up, follower-based movement, there remains a premium on having a top-down, leadership-driven apparatus to harness that support.”

This cycle, Warren is trying to be the leader in both quantityandquality. Her recent big crowds—10,000-plus in Seattle, St. Paul, and New York City (the Warren campaign’s 20,000 estimate for Washington Square Park was not confirmed by city officials)—have congregated in deep-blue cities that are not part of the February voting contests. But Warren followed her flex in Washington Square Park with a healthy 2,000-person audience at the University of Iowa in Iowa City.

Where we haven’t heard reports of a strong Warren field operation is in South Carolina—the fourth February state, and the one with a Democratic electorate demographically distinct from the other three. According to entrance and exit poll data from 2016, Iowa and New Hampshire have Democratic electorates that are almost uniformly white, at least half-college educated and slightly more than two-thirds liberal. Nevada’s is not nearly as white, but is almost half-college educated and is 70 percent liberal. South Carolina is majority-black. Sixty percent of its voters lack a college degree and almost half identify as moderate or conservative.

Warren’s rise in the polls has been powered by support from stoutly liberal college-educated whites. Her two-point lead in theDes Moines Register/CNN poll is largely thanks to the 48 percent plurality she got from “very liberal” Iowans. So when Warren draws a big crowd at an Iowa university, she is getting access to potential volunteers who are, in all likelihood, demographically and politically aligned with much of the state’s Democratic electorate.

A college crowd in South Carolina is a different story. The last time Warren was in South Carolina, which was last month, she drew 925 people to the University of South Carolina Aiken, packing a gymnasium to capacity and prompting Warren to give an additional speech to the overflow crowd. But, according to the South Carolina newspaperThe State, the audience was “majority white and many traveled from outside Aiken.” When Warren addressed a black church in Columbia the following day,TheWashington Postreported the event was “sparsely attended.” This weekend, Warren will try again, returning to South Carolina for a town hall at the historically black Clinton College.

To win the nomination, Warren almost certainly needs to make inroads with African-Americans and non-college voters, in South Carolina and elsewhere, where bigger and bigger crowds may not her best weapon. As FiveThirtyEight’s Rakich recently highlighted, a 2018 Pew poll found that those who said they had attended a political rally in the last five years tend to be ideologically liberal and college-educated.

That may help explain why boisterous crowds didn’t help Sanders in 2016 move beyond his natural base of youthful progressives. By the later stages of the campaign, his repetitive rallies may even have created a counterproductive image of insularity. Barack Obama’s enormous crowds in the 2008 primary, of course, were an unmitigated success story. But as an African-American candidate, it was easier for him to fuse a coalition of white, liberal college-educated rallygoers with black voters. If Bernie’s “27 dollars” call-and-response wasn’t enough to grow a diverse coalition, Warren may not be able to either with her “two cents.”

In the early stages of a campaign, neither polls nor crowds are predictive of the final outcome. That doesn’t make them meaningless. Warren’s crowds don’t make her a sure winner, but neither do her new leads in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. And if you need to break out of a crowded field, it sure helps to have a crowd.

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