#back in the day it was 5 dollars or euro max WHAT HAPPENED! | Explore Tumblr posts and blogs

thisislizheather · 5 years ago

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December Dalliances 2019

It’s over, the holidays are over. Usually that makes me unhappy but this year they felt like the perfect amount of time. I’m crazy ready to start a new year. I remember being a kid and thinking, “In 2020, I’ll be 35… oh no” And now that it’s here, I’m pretty excited about it. I think it’s because there are so many things to look forward to this year (going to a wedding in the Catskills with Nathan & Baby Dog, going to London to see my friend Sarah, going to Barcelona with Gary, seeing where him and his family live in Glasgow, seeing a Euro Cup semi-final game in Amsterdam with my brothers, spending the day in Lisbon, spending quite a bit of time on the coast in Portugal, going on an anniversary trip in August). So. Excited. For. Everything.

But enough about the future, let’s delve into the recent past for a minute. Here’s what happened in December that was notable:

I made these Chickpea Pitas that were very good, I used wholewheat tortillas instead of pita and it still tasted great.

I have so many creams and lotions, please no one ever buy me another one. I just started using this Vichy Collagen cream (that I got two Christmases ago!) as a morning face cream and it’s wonderful. Very soft. Not sticky or greasy. Fully recommend. Especially for winter mornings.

I have no idea how I got them, but I had a stack of Dr. Dennis Gross (terrible name to put on a product) Alpha Beta Extra Strength Daily Peel packets that have been hanging around my beauty box (which is a storage box full of beauty samples and gifts and things I intend to one day use but haven’t yet) - so I just started using them once a week and whoa. They be tingly. Is that a good thing? I guess? I know nothing about skincare. In any case, they feel like they’re doing something magical when I use them but that’s about it. Are they worth $88 American dollars for a pack? God, no. But if you get a chance to use them as a sample or something, go for it. What do these wipes DO exactly? I’m told they’re “anti-aging.” Sidenote: I hate products that only promote that. How could you ever prove something is anti-aging?! You can’t! Unless you use it for 5-10 years and have before & after shots. And no one is going to do that. It’s bullshit. I’d respect the product more if it just said, “We don’t know what it does, but it feels fun on your face. Give a try!”

No one can stop me from loving old-school animation. The giant eyes and heads on today’s animation is horrifying to me and makes me miss the days of the 1992 version of Aladdin and the way kid’s movies used to look. I came across this old made-for-TV-movie Annabelle’s Wish and though it was nothing spectacular, I love the way it looked.

I tried the Japanese cheesecake that I’ve heard so much about: Uncle Tetsu in Square One. Verdict? It’s not cheesecake. But that’s not a bad thing. It really just tasted like a light, cheesy bread - but with none of the fulfillment of being too cheesy.

Looking forward to a new season of Curb on the 17th.

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One thing that’s pissed me off this month: PINK (the Victoria’s Secret brand) no longer carries underwear in size XL. They just stopped making them. It happened at some point last year. And I mean, I was already not a fan of regular Victoria’s Secret, but now? This is insane. For a brand that already has existing problems with inclusion, are you fucking kidding me? I’ll never go back into any of their stores. I hate that I’ve supported them for as long as I have.

I watched a couple of the newest SNLs over the Christmas break and the absolute best part of all of them? These performances.

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Lizzo, her dancers, her musicians, everything: perfection. Not only are they great performances, but seeing women who have regular fucking bodies? I need it. I need it bad. I’m a 34 year old woman and I still need to see this. I needed this when I was a teenager, I needed this when I was a kid. I could go on and on about why this is needed, but hopefully you just get it.

I rewatched Mean Streets because I genuinely couldn’t remember if I like Scorsese movies or not and… some are good? Best part of this movie:

I tried some wasabi Kit-Kats from Japan and yowza. They good.

This sounds like a broken record but I watched the newest season of Fuller House and I still don’t know why I watch this show when I know it isn’t good. I have a problem. Although it did bring me to this song that I now love.

I just bought this incredible throw blanket for the couch from Indigo (that is wildly on sale right now), I suggest you get one.

End of the year posts can get a little cheesy or heavy or preachy, but I absolutely loved this one from Ijeoma Oluo.

After using one Tarte eyeshadow palette for literally all of 2019, I branched out and got two new palettes. This Huda Beauty one (love it, great for going out) and this Colorpop one that is stunning but absolutely does not last throughout the night.

No idea how Sephora had this as a reward, but I got a mini version of a Pat McGrath mascara and I love it. Also, SO IN LOVE with these balms.

While in Mississauga, I went to The Dr. Seuss Experience and oh man, it’s wildly overpriced for what it is. I mean, it’s in an old Sport Chek for christsake. Should’ve cost $5/person, MAX.

Excited to see this movie (below), love a winter horror movie.

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I saw Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and it’s very okay. Definitely not among the best movies I saw in 2019. Also, I think I really don’t like Quentin Tarantino. Gotta remember that next time. Overrated hack.

I love to read about food and I love this “Best Meals Eaten This Decade” list.

There’s this postal store in the East Village that I’m quickly falling in love with. They act like a post office, but they also sell various independent lines of greeting cards and small gifts. Love this place.

I tried a sample of Glossier’s Cloud Paint and I think I might splurge and get one. I’m still not sold on the idea of using my fingers to rub product on my cheeks (I’m totally fine using my fingers on my eyelids though for some reason), but we’ll see. I’m going to go to the flagship store to try on some colours. Will report back.

Absolutely love this piece entitled The Age of The Instagram Face.

Some new recipes that I tried for Christmas: I made this heavenly white wine gravy (must remember to make again), this spinach Christmas tree with marinara sauce on the side for dipping that was a huge hit and these pumpkin cheesecake cups.

I must have mentioned them before, but the roast beef sandwiches at San Remo’s in Etobicoke = heaven on earth.

Keep this in mind.

I went to Lilia for the second time and yes, it’s a very good restaurant. Their bread special is fucking unreal and the agnolotti is stellar, I just wish it weren’t in Brooklyn. I know for sure now that L’Artusi is my favourite place for pasta, but this one is definitely top five.

Here are two great things to do when a new year has begun.

I recapped what happened in autumn and it’s only slightly pathetic.

I made a list of things I’d like to do this winter.

Here are some of my favourite photos from the past year.

I made a little Christmas video (below) of my holidays that I’ve already watched too many times.

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Some things that I’m looking forward to this month: I’m on the hunt for a new coat (specifically a somewhat-fancy coat, perhaps faux-fur) because I hate not having anything dressy to wear outdoors, I’m really excited to share my resolutions for the year (post coming soon), I’m so interested in getting a lash lift but they’re too expensive so I’ll continue to debate it in my mind, excited about Restaurant Week starting, I finally got Jenny Slate’s new book so I’m looking forward to reading that, and honestly the main thing I want is snow. That’s it. The quietness that comes with it. The bitter air it brings. I want it all and I want it now.

If you’ve got any interest in reading last month’s roundup, you can see what went down in November over here!

#this is liz heather #Liz Heather #December 2019 #monthly post

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preciousmetals0 · 5 years ago

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Bitcoin Threat, CoinMarketCap Bought, Trump Hint, Apple Rumor: Hodler’s Digest, March 30–April 5

Bitcoin Threat, CoinMarketCap Bought, Trump Hint, Apple Rumor: Hodler’s Digest, March 30–April 5:

Coming every Sunday, Hodler’s Digest will help you track every single important news story that happened this week. The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more — a week on Cointelegraph in one link.

Top Stories This Week

Bitcoin flips bullish — but here’s why BTC price may still hit $3,900

BTC has gained more than 10% in the past week, fueling hope that there’s a bullish future ahead for the world’s biggest cryptocurrency. Unfortunately, it’s never that simple. There was a valiant effort to smash through the critical resistance level of $7,200 — but this triggered a huge rejection. Perhaps it’s a little too soon to expect a miraculous bounceback to $8,000 and beyond. In other developments, a survey suggests traditional financial institutions are becoming increasingly interested in taking advantage of the recent crypto plunge. A whopping 97% are considering trading digital assets within the next two years. Also this week, the billionaire CEO of Social Capital said it could be Bitcoin’s time to shine and predicted the cryptocurrency could eventually be seen as a “flight to safety.”

Binance announces CoinMarketCap acquisition

Big news in the crypto sector this week: One of the biggest mergers in the industry’s history has been signed on the dotted line. Binance, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, has acquired CoinMarketCap, one of the most-referenced crypto data websites. The value of the deal is undisclosed, but it’s rumored to have cost Binance a cool $400 million. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao told Cointelegraph that negotiations had been ongoing for several months, adding: “The acquisition will enable us to build on each other’s strengths and further grow and instill transparency in the industry.” Both companies have stressed that CoinMarketCap will continue to operate independently, meaning Binance will have no bearing on cryptocurrency rankings. CMC’s interim CEO, Carylyne Chan, added: “We’ll stick to our listing requirements and make sure that everything is fair and unbiased to anyone who wants to list anything on CoinMarketCap.”

Not April Fool’s — Trump hints at $9 oil after accidental Bitcoin plug

Last week, Trump had inadvertently advertised Bitcoin after appearing to suggest he supports manipulating the U.S. dollar. This week, the U.S. president raised eyebrows by indicating that he expects oil to crash to just $9. It comes as Russia and Saudi Arabia continue their tiff, with both of them planning to increase oil production this month despite a plunge in demand caused by the coronavirus. WTI crude prices have tumbled by more than 50% in the past 30 days alone — and are down 68% year to date. Trump said: “Look, it’s $22, but it’s really much cheaper than that if you want to negotiate — nobody’s seen that. That’s like from the 1950s, it really is — to think that it was $50, $60, $70, $80 — and now it’s $22, but you know, if you put a good bid in at $9, I think you could probably get what you wanted, right?” The last time oil circled $10 was actually in 1998.

Pandemic is changing Bitcoin usage in “unexpected ways,” says Chainalysis

The coronavirus pandemic and the global economic slowdown are affecting Bitcoin consumer habits in surprising ways, according to a new report by Chainalysis. The blockchain intelligence firm says BTC merchant services have shown resilience in recent weeks — and although overall levels of spending have fallen, they haven’t declined as dramatically as expected. Darknet markets are having a particularly miserable time. Their revenues have decreased substantially, possibly because the global supply chains of illicit substances such as recreational drugs have been badly hit by the COVID-19 crisis. The Hubei province, the epicenter of the pandemic, is also a hub of the global fentanyl trade — and according to Chainalysis, the disruption “could be hampering darknet vendors’ ability to do business.”

Did Apple just kill crypto “burner wallets?”

Burner wallets — non-custodial wallets that store a user’s private key in the browser’s local storage — may have just been killed off by Apple. It’s feared that recent changes to Intelligent Tracking Protection in the iOS on iPhones will jeopardize this model for good. The change is designed to enhance user privacy, with client-side cookies expiring after seven days. This implies that burner wallets will be destroyed after that short period. One workaround appears to be adding a burner wallet to the iPhone’s home screen, but software engineers have warned that this doesn’t appear to be an easy task.

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin is at $6,790.33, Ether at $144.33 and XRP at $0.18. The total market cap is at $191,021,323,529.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are Swipe, Digitex Futures and Quant. The top three altcoin losers of the week are Status, WAX and STASIS EURO.

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraph’s market analysis.

Most Memorable Quotations

“Our customers typically buy 60% more than they sell but during the crash this jumped to 67%, taking advantage of market troughs and representing strong demand for crypto assets even during extreme volatility.”

Coinbase, crypto exchange

“I predict — and this is not only the ultimate use case but the ultimate irony — that once people realize that they cannot get gold, they’ll start flocking en masse into Bitcoin.”

Max Keiser, TV host

“BTC does offer an alternative store of value, and there is no question about that. The issue is: How good is it? It all depends upon when you buy and when you sell, and so there remains a huge element of luck.”

Kevin Dowd, professor of finance and economics, Durham University

“Bitcoin was innovated to become a safe haven during times just like this. So why aren’t we seeing Bitcoin become the safe haven that it was developed to be and was for a number of years?”

Jeffrey Tucker, American Institute for Economic Research

“Binance has no bearing on CoinMarketCap rankings. CoinMarketCap stays committed to providing the most accurate, timely and quality cryptocurrency data in the industry while benefiting from Binance’s expertise, resources and scale.”

Changpeng Zhao, Binance CEO

“The beautiful thing about our country is $6.2 trillion — because it is 2.2 plus 4 — it’s $6.2 trillion, and we can handle that easily because of who we are, what we are. It’s our money; we are the ones, it’s our currency.”

Donald Trump, U.S. president

“How much did we pay Trump to advertise Bitcoin?”

Samson Mow, Blockstream CSO

Prediction of the Week

Mike Novogratz may “hang his spurs” if Bitcoin doesn’t hit $20,000 in 2020

Every week on Hodler’s Digest, we see endless predictions on where Bitcoin is going to be in the coming years — $1,000, $100,000, $250,000, $1 million… The list is endless. There’s a bit of a twist this week. Mike Novogratz, a frequent flier in this column, has reaffirmed his belief that Bitcoin will reach an all-time high this year — and warned he might give up on BTC altogether if it doesn’t. The CEO of Galaxy Digital, a well-known Bitcoin bull, expressed his confidence that Bitcoin’s price will at least double by October. He also told CNBC: “This is the year of Bitcoin, and if it doesn’t go up now by the end of the year, I might just hang my spurs.” It is worth bearing in mind that Novogratz has made inaccurate forecasts before. He incorrectly predicted that Bitcoin would be back at $20,000 before the end of 2019.

FUD of the Week

French soccer star claims crypto scam impersonated him

Paris Saint-Germain player Kylian Mbappé has claimed that his name has been used without his permission on a cryptocurrency scam network. The French striker alleges that false statements attributed to him have appeared in advertising campaigns where he is wrongly quoted as saying that people could become millionaires in two or three months. Crypto scam articles have also started circulating with the title: “The latest Kylian Mbappé investment that put pressure on experts and scared big banks.” Local authorities are now investigating the scam and said: “These pages are used to impersonate future victims, save your contact details, then an alleged vendor calls them to explain the procedure for investing, but there is never a product that is invested in.” Mbappé has fallen victim to this before. Last April, his official Twitter account was hacked, and tweets were posted where his followers were encouraged to make investments in crypto scams.

Philippine SEC warns of international Ponzi scheme offering 300% daily returns

A crypto Ponzi scheme is targeting Filipino, Australian and European investors, according to the Philippines Securities and Exchange Commission. The scheme — known as “Bitcoin Revolution” — offers investors exorbitant compounding daily returns on deposited funds. It claims to offer software that produces trades with a success rate of between 88% and 95%, offering a path to seven-figure gains in just 61 days. From an initial deposit of just $250, the scammers claim that investors can earn 300% per day or 9,000% per month. The SEC is warning that anyone involved in the scam will face up to 21 years of imprisonment and/or maximum fines of $100,000.

FBI arrests Russian rapper for crypto money laundering, cites damning Instagram

A Russian national has been arrested on suspicion of money laundering, with U.S. authorities pointing to an Instagram account that promoted his rap career as evidence against him. FBI investigators claim Maksim Boiko laundered money using cryptocurrencies, including via the disgraced BTC-e exchange. It’s also alleged that he conspired with QQAAZZ, a transnational organized crime organization. Boiko entered the U.S on Jan. 19, carrying $20,000 in cash. He told airport security that the money had come from investments in Bitcoin and rental properties in Russia. Data from BTC-e showed his account had received deposits worth $387,964 — and pictures uploaded to his Instagram show him holding large wads of cash. The rapper has, er, 341 YouTube subscribers and 2,619 Instagram followers.

Best Cointelegraph Features

Crypto community largely approves of Binance acquiring CoinMarketCap

The reaction has mostly been upbeat following Binance’s acquisition of CoinMarketCap. Shiraz Jagati has had his finger on the pulse of reactions from across the industry.

Remaining anonymous: which crypto privacy solution works best?

Various methods to achieve privacy in crypto transactions have been developed over the years. Andrey Shevchenko takes a look at some of the best-known solutions and explores their pros and cons.

How I taught a total stranger in Kenya about Bitcoin

Steven Msoh has written for Cointelegraph Magazine about educating random strangers about Bitcoin in Kenya — a country where the mobile money system M-Pesa dominates the market.

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goldira01 · 5 years ago

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Top Stories This Week

Bitcoin flips bullish — but here’s why BTC price may still hit $3,900

Binance announces CoinMarketCap acquisition

Not April Fool’s — Trump hints at $9 oil after accidental Bitcoin plug

Pandemic is changing Bitcoin usage in “unexpected ways,” says Chainalysis

Did Apple just kill crypto “burner wallets?”

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin is at $6,790.33, Ether at $144.33 and XRP at $0.18. The total market cap is at $191,021,323,529.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are Swipe, Digitex Futures and Quant. The top three altcoin losers of the week are Status, WAX and STASIS EURO.

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraph’s market analysis.

Most Memorable Quotations

Coinbase, crypto exchange

“I predict — and this is not only the ultimate use case but the ultimate irony — that once people realize that they cannot get gold, they’ll start flocking en masse into Bitcoin.”

Max Keiser, TV host

Kevin Dowd, professor of finance and economics, Durham University

“Bitcoin was innovated to become a safe haven during times just like this. So why aren’t we seeing Bitcoin become the safe haven that it was developed to be and was for a number of years?”

Jeffrey Tucker, American Institute for Economic Research

Changpeng Zhao, Binance CEO

Donald Trump, U.S. president

“How much did we pay Trump to advertise Bitcoin?”

Samson Mow, Blockstream CSO

Prediction of the Week

Mike Novogratz may “hang his spurs” if Bitcoin doesn’t hit $20,000 in 2020

FUD of the Week

French soccer star claims crypto scam impersonated him

Philippine SEC warns of international Ponzi scheme offering 300% daily returns

FBI arrests Russian rapper for crypto money laundering, cites damning Instagram

Best Cointelegraph Features

Crypto community largely approves of Binance acquiring CoinMarketCap

The reaction has mostly been upbeat following Binance’s acquisition of CoinMarketCap. Shiraz Jagati has had his finger on the pulse of reactions from across the industry.

Remaining anonymous: which crypto privacy solution works best?

Various methods to achieve privacy in crypto transactions have been developed over the years. Andrey Shevchenko takes a look at some of the best-known solutions and explores their pros and cons.

How I taught a total stranger in Kenya about Bitcoin

Steven Msoh has written for Cointelegraph Magazine about educating random strangers about Bitcoin in Kenya — a country where the mobile money system M-Pesa dominates the market.

#Timor Invest

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dorcasrempel · 6 years ago

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Reducing false positives in credit card fraud detection

Have you ever used your credit card at a new store or location only to have it declined? Has a sale ever been blocked because you charged a higher amount than usual?

Consumers’ credit cards are declined surprisingly often in legitimate transactions. One cause is that fraud-detecting technologies used by a consumer’s bank have incorrectly flagged the sale as suspicious. Now MIT researchers have employed a new machine-learning technique to drastically reduce these false positives, saving banks money and easing customer frustration.

Using machine learning to detect financial fraud dates back to the early 1990s and has advanced over the years. Researchers train models to extract behavioral patterns from past transactions, called “features,” that signal fraud. When you swipe your card, the card pings the model and, if the features match fraud behavior, the sale gets blocked.

Behind the scenes, however, data scientists must dream up those features, which mostly center on blanket rules for amount and location. If any given customer spends more than, say, $2,000 on one purchase, or makes numerous purchases in the same day, they may be flagged. But because consumer spending habits vary, even in individual accounts, these models are sometime inaccurate: A 2015 report from Javelin Strategy and Research estimates that only one in five fraud predictions is correct and that the errors can cost a bank $118 billion in lost revenue, as declined customers then refrain from using that credit card.

The MIT researchers have developed an “automated feature engineering” approach that extracts more than 200 detailed features for each individual transaction — say, if a user was present during purchases, and the average amount spent on certain days at certain vendors. By doing so, it can better pinpoint when a specific card holder’s spending habits deviate from the norm.

Tested on a dataset of 1.8 million transactions from a large bank, the model reduced false positive predictions by 54 percent over traditional models, which the researchers estimate could have saved the bank 190,000 euros (around $220,000) in lost revenue.

“The big challenge in this industry is false positives,” says Kalyan Veeramachaneni, a principal research scientist at MIT’s Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (LIDS) and co-author of a paper describing the model, which was presented at the recent European Conference for Machine Learning. “We can say there’s a direct connection between feature engineering and [reducing] false positives. … That’s the most impactful thing to improve accuracy of these machine-learning models.”

Paper co-authors are: lead author Roy Wedge, a former researcher in the Data to AI Lab at LIDS; James Max Kanter ’15, SM ’15; and Santiago Moral Rubio and Sergio Iglesias Perez of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria.

Extracting “deep” features

Three years ago, Veeramachaneni and Kanter developed Deep Feature Synthesis (DFS), an automated approach that extracts highly detailed features from any data, and decided to apply it to financial transactions.

Enterprises will sometimes host competitions where they provide a limited dataset along with a prediction problem such as fraud. Data scientists develop prediction models, and a cash prize goes to the most accurate model. The researchers entered one such competition and achieved top scores with DFS.

However, they realized the approach could reach its full potential if trained on several sources of raw data. “If you look at what data companies release, it’s a tiny sliver of what they actually have,” Veeramachaneni says. “Our question was, ‘How do we take this approach to actual businesses?’”

Backed by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s Data-Driven Discovery of Models program, Kanter and his team at FeatureLabs — a spinout commercializing the technology — developed an open-source library for automated feature extraction, called Featuretools, which was used in this research.

The researchers obtained a three-year dataset provided by an international bank, which included granular information about transaction amount, times, locations, vendor types, and terminals used. It contained about 900 million transactions from around 7 million individual cards. Of those transactions, around 122,000 were confirmed as fraud. The researchers trained and tested their model on subsets of that data.

In training, the model looks for patterns of transactions and among cards that match cases of fraud. It then automatically combines all the different variables it finds into “deep” features that provide a highly detailed look at each transaction. From the dataset, the DFS model extracted 237 features for each transaction. Those represent highly customized variables for card holders, Veeramachaneni says. “Say, on Friday, it’s usual for a customer to spend $5 or $15 dollars at Starbucks,” he says. “That variable will look like, ‘How much money was spent in a coffee shop on a Friday morning?’”

It then creates an if/then decision tree for that account of features that do and don’t point to fraud. When a new transaction is run through the decision tree, the model decides in real time whether or not the transaction is fraudulent.

Pitted against a traditional model used by a bank, the DFS model generated around 133,000 false positives versus 289,000 false positives, about 54 percent fewer incidents. That, along with a smaller number of false negatives detected — actual fraud that wasn’t detected — could save the bank an estimated 190,000 euros, the researchers estimate.

Stacking primitives

The backbone of the model consists of creatively stacked “primitives,” simple functions that take two inputs and give an output. For example, calculating an average of two numbers is one primitive. That can be combined with a primitive that looks at the time stamp of two transactions to get an average time between transactions. Stacking another primitive that calculates the distance between two addresses from those transactions gives an average time between two purchases at two specific locations. Another primitive could determine if the purchase was made on a weekday or weekend, and so on.

“Once we have those primitives, there is no stopping us for stacking them … and you start to see these interesting variables you didn’t think of before. If you dig deep into the algorithm, primitives are the secret sauce,” Veeramachaneni says.

One important feature that the model generates, Veeramachaneni notes, is calculating the distance between those two locations and whether they happened in person or remotely. If someone who buys something at, say, the Stata Center in person and, a half hour later, buys something in person 200 miles away, then it’s a high probability of fraud. But if one purchase occurred through mobile phone, the fraud probability drops.

“There are so many features you can extract that characterize behaviors you see in past data that relate to fraud or nonfraud use cases,” Veeramachaneni says.

Reducing false positives in credit card fraud detection syndicated from https://osmowaterfilters.blogspot.com/

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kansascityhappenings · 7 years ago

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Joe’s Weather Blog: All eyes on Irma (THU-9/7)

Once again with a lack of weather in the KC area for the foreseeable future…this blog will be dedicated to the Irma situation. There is all sorts of potential with the storm and most of it is bad…and potentially very bad. There has been so much of a change in south FL over the past 20+ years…since the last category 5 hurricane hit (Andrew) in 1992…that concern is very high…from a property standpoint and a people standpoint.

Back home…we actually set a record low this morning…down to 46°. The previous record low was 47°. My forecast from this past weekend nailed this…which is a good feeling! Here is a quick forecast for KC…

Today: Mostly sunny and mild with highs near 75-80° Friday>Sunday: Mostly sunny and warm with highs 80-85°

Discussion:

Irma:

So it’s all about Irma…actually there are two other hurricanes out there as well…Katia and Jose…Jose may become another major hurricane by the times things are all said and done and sadly hurricane watches have been issued for Barbuda and Anguilla. Barbuda was 90%+ devastated and the Prime Minister of the island nation may evacuate the entire island because of inhabitable conditions especially with a 2nd storm potential now. Katia is in the SW Gulf of Mexico heading into Mexico later tomorrow…Jose is on the right side of the satellite pictures above…could be a Bermuda threat towards the middle of next week…then there’s Irma north of the Dominican Republic

Irma is still a powerful category 5 hurricane. There have been some very minor fluctuations in the max winds associated with the storm…from 185>175 mph.

#Irma had winds of 185 mph for 37 hr, the longest a TC was that strong anywhere around globe in satellite era (since 1966). Irma now 175 mph pic.twitter.com/VkLaakwmhN

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 7, 2017

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The storm is heading directly for the Turks and Caicos Islands it appears…and from the pictures coming from the Islands already hit…odds are near total destruction may occur there depending on the strength of the buildings.

From there there hasn’t been a lot of change in the thinking that has been with us for days now…timing and where a more pronounced north turn occurs will determine how bad things get in Florida.

There is still an outcome where things aren’t that terrible…but it would rely on Irma passing some 100 miles off the SE coast of FL…doable but right now…the least likely scenario.

The next scenario is somewhat possible…a closer passage of the eye of the storm…but still 50 miles off the coast line…this would create flooding potential and tornado potential in some area…Miami is a terribly flood prone city to begin with…add in higher tides and some storm surge and flooding will be an issue regardless.

The next potential is by far the most destructive and potentially the most devastating to the state…an eye passage just barely west of Miami…then a move somewhat up the coast through West Palm Beach…then perhaps a somewhat off the coast northwards track.

The only Category 5 hurricanes to hit the U.S. are Andrew in 1992, Camille in 1969 and an unnamed storm in 1935. https://t.co/gnUOwFYkEY pic.twitter.com/mXe7n5SzV8

— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) September 7, 2017

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This path is the current forecast and is highlighted by the EURO model from overnight at least. Hurricane Watches have been issued for Southern Florida as of late this morning.

Earlier in the blog I mentioned that because of the changes that have taken place in Florida since the last bad hurricane (Andrew)…there a lot of people who haven’t been through this before…look at all the folks who have either moved within the state or moved to the state in the last 15+ years

Population in Central & South Florida alone has grown by 4M since 2000. Many new people & exposure which explains heightened concerns. #Irma pic.twitter.com/1fCj21TVk6

— Steve Bowen (@SteveBowenWx) September 5, 2017

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Perhaps because of this…and I think more likely because of what happened with Harvey…there are a lot of folks wanting to not even mess with the potential of this storm…check out the northbound traffic in the state via Google Traffic. Those red roads are very heavy traffic conditions…all heading north

Model solutions continue to be consistent with themselves. The GFS (from last night) has the storm offshore while the EURO brings it onshore…

https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=3f44df74-93e2-11e7-b263-0edaf8f81e27

The difference is the potential of $200 billion or more. The potential is a big difference from Harvey in terms of the way things are damaged…yes flooding will be an issue in southern FL…but the wind destruction and the storm surge destruction along the coast is the big $$$ damage potential. There are so many trailer/mobile homes down in that part of state…those things can’t take 100 MPH winds…according to the census Florida has over 750,000 mobile homes…the highest percentage is around Jacksonville, FL…when checked in 2000…there were over 40,000 mobile/manufactured homes in Miami and Dade Co in southern FL.

You can see the potential for disaster.

One note to those of you who watch the model data…the EURO vastly outperformed the GFS model for Harvey…and so far at least.,..it’s outperforming the GFS for Irma. See this twet below…thge GFS model is denoted by the AVNO moniker. Also note that despite the model..there have been huge location errors at the 72 hour forecast…100-250(!) miles. That difference equates to billions of dollars in damage right now in terms of where things end up.

Courtesy of Brian Tang at U Albany, track errors for #IRMA so far, #ECMWF =the best but not homogeneous sample, less cases than other models pic.twitter.com/n3Dif48eNf

— Kieran Bhatia (@KieranBhatia) September 7, 2017

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More on the storm over the next few days (obviously)

Joe

from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports http://fox4kc.com/2017/09/07/joes-weather-blog-all-eyes-on-irma-thu-97/

from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2017/09/07/joes-weather-blog-all-eyes-on-irma-thu-97/

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