#as well as in two covid groups where ppl had similar issues with the first test I used that were later confirmed for them as pcr negative | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

purplepints · 5 years

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I've seen several articles repeating a very important piece of info about numbers and perception of danger or infection due to the release by different countries and groups.

Since it's been recognized, South Korea has been testing people regardless of symptoms. Italy has been testing people with symptoms and the US has hardly been testing at all.

So when you hear any of the "There are X,000 confirmed cases and X deaths"-type announcements, realize that in many places around the world these are NOT the actual numbers. It is the number of people who have been tested & diagnosed positive (lab confirmed COVID-19) and not the actual number of people who have it. Not even close. They're likely not double or triple those numbers, either. It's probably at least quadruple at a bare minimum, with numbers skyrocketing in larger cities.

Just like so many other illnesses, people catch something and that illness starts to set up shop. It takes a bit of time for it to trigger our protections or otherwise draw attention to something being wrong. Before people are even feeling sick, they are already contagious and remain so until the viral load is too low to be a viable danger, which is normally after your symptoms are almost gone. This means you could be contagious for several weeks. This isn't odd, it's just how viruses work and you've likely had this same chain of events occur in your own body when you've caught something. We've all been ticking bombs, we just haven't carried this dangerous of a payload inside our cells before. That hang time where you feel fine but are spreading the disease is the scariest thing about contagious diseases of this type, and is why seclusion and quarantine measures are absolutely vital to halt the spread.

No one is immune to Covid-19.

There is no vaccine or preventative measure.

There is no anti-viral available for it.

It is devastating and it is deadly.

Until broad-scale testing is done and tests are being processed quickly, the number of people with COVID-19 can be estimated but not confirmed. I'm not saying this to make you fly into a panic, I'm saying it because we as humans tend to hear numbers first and think about what they actually respresent second, if at all. We have lagged behind in testing and the tests we did have were faulty, we dragged our heels on allowing additional qualified labs to assist with processing tests, and the information coming from our government covers the entire spectrum : accurate, inaccurate, partial, panicked, apathetic, dismissive, confusing, conflicting....it's not reassuring and it is glaringly obvious we are woefully unprepared. Our country is literally shutting down because we don't have other options.

In the US, our situation is, to put it mildly, a clusterfuck.

How so? Through a combination of things, some of which are:

- We are not testing anywhere as broadly as we should be.

- People are not being informed about the seriousness of COVID-19 (think it is same as flu, that young people can't catch it, that flu shots protect etc) and don't understand the difference between viruses and other types of infections.

- People do not understand how long it takes to identify new viruses, why some strains are different, why similar symptoms do not mean similar diseases, how fast viruses can mutate it adapt of how quickly that can be identified.

- People here don't always understand why different departments or sub-offices in departments can be absolutely vital to their lives, and so often don't notice or care when budgets are slashed, research is stopped, responsibilities shoved onto other already burdened departments, whatever. Not knowing how government works is a sad hallmark of American life and this is going to show us how bad this apathy really is.

- People see the number of departments & offices as bloated government spending, so rarely speak up when any are shut down or downsized.

- Large numbers of people in the USA ignore science, decades of information & factual conclusions and warnings of impact even if it can or does affect them personally.

- Large numbers of people in the US were unaware until very recently that the CDC was decimated by Trump specifically. The EPIDEMIC response division was completely eliminated.

- People in the USA in the whole don't understand how various agencies in the government work together or share information on collaborative projects, so when parts of the USDA were forced from Washington DC to Kansas City, it went unremarked upon and the hundreds of positions remaining unfilled in that department alone are a huge concern. Add in the short-staffing of other agencies and this mean that we may not be able to determine how current events can impact food security, transportation, storage or identify economic issues that farmers may face that relate to COVID-19.

- People are not following suggestions of self quarantine or avoidance, instead since they're off work/school /etc heading to places where hundreds+ mingle or to restaurants & bars where 5-10ft distance between people isn't really possible (not to mention the lack of handwashing, shared faucets, knobs, exits/entrance, soiled glasses & silverware, recycled air blah blah) and when all those places are shut down, we all know there will likely be groups who decide to throw parties or pop-up gatherings because they're bored or whatever, and the first time one of those gets busted by cops or National Guard in masks/gear there's going to be a wild few days.

- Different officials in different states have given different direction regarding actions toward COVID-19, with some pleading for everyone to stay home, period, while others were saying going out should be encouraged because....? Conflicting information creates chaos.

- Not grasping that the reason these precautions are implemented is to slow or halt spread of disease and to limit exposure to people who are at higher risk of dying and to help medical efforts (more sick Med personnel = less ability to treat the sick), because the frequently repeated soundbites & headlines are variants on "old and sick people are at risk, everyone else will be fine". The longer it continues to spread among people means the more difficult it will be to stop long term and the more opportunity for it to mutate. Even if you recover just fine, if you were out spreading it, it is still active in the area, which means people who disregard precautions could catch it multiple times which lowers recovery chances, because young *and healthy* is the phrase, and if you just had COVID-19 for two weeks and fought it off, your immune system is tired and your body needs time to recover. Catching it within a few weeks of surviving it? You won't like those odds.

- In the US much of our culture, belief and ideals of value or worth are tied directly to our place in the work force. This is a line we have swallowed hook and sinker, to the point where it is commonly thought that workers in lower paying jobs or work that doesn't require a college degree are less of a person and less valuable that someone making more money. Now a gigantic amount of those employees are without jobs, and they will continue to be the first ones cut from payrolls, fired and unable to find new jobs because those jobs don't currently exist. Young or not, they can all be added to vulnerable groups because they don't have Healthcare, they don't have months of savings to buy food or pay bills, they may not qualify for unemployment or other assistance.

- We are not stressing that all diseases that spread in similar fashion are still active just like always, so it isn't just about COVID-19. People who catch diseases like regular a/b flu strains, streph throat, bronchitis, etc need doctors too, and those conditions being active mean more groups are put at risk if they catch a 'regular' illness which allows COVID-19 easier access, regardless of age. You can have more than one disease at a time!!

That's just the tip of the yikesberg, y'all.

To reiterate, anyone saying "well we only have like X,000 cases in the US" is wrong. We only have X,000 tested and officially confirmed cases, and we have not increased testing or taken efficient measures of seclusion or quarantine nor provided clear, direct information regarding what is happening. States are also putting out info conflicting with the Feds and other States, too and we are not moving fast enough to get the information we need to effectively head off the spread, contain areas and educate the population.

Again, when they do the math on these, diseases are given a specified number, an R0 sometimes heard or read as 'R-naught' (which can change, getting bigger or smaller depending) that is an estimated number of how many people a single person can infect others in an unprotected group. (ie, how many ppl can catch measles for a single patient in a world without vaccinations, which fun fact the measles R0 is 16+ depending on strain) and COVID-19 has been sitting around 2.3, which is higher than the Spanish Influenza of 1918 and over double the number of a standard modern flu strain. Going by this, it isn't really odd that lots of places are using visual representations of the old "would you rather have a million dollars or be given a penny on day 1 that doubles each day for thirty days?" thing, because 2 people infect 2 more each, then those 4 infect 2 each, and so on.

This is why quarantine and seclusion ate used against diseases we have no treatment for: It's the only way to stop it from continuing to spread. Last week, doctors in Seattle (on of the cities hit hardest at the start) were estimating over 1,100 cases in the city alone. Without being able to test and confirm, they had no hard numbers. This means a single city in a single county in a single state, likely had as many or more COVID-19 cases than what was reported as a national number for all 50 states off Federal numbers.

It also doesn't help that like many viruses, the asymptomatic incubation period of COVID-19 means that people who are contagious and spreading the virus are doing so for longer periods of time. On the far side, symptoms show at 10-14 days. Most patients will be contagious while not feeling noticible symptoms for 24-72hrs, thereby potentially exposing everyone around them during that time. This includes virus left on handrails, doorknobs, elevator buttons, ATMs, physical money, grocery items, you name it. If you aren't following basic hygienic protocol & precautions (washing hands thoroughly with soap for 20 seconds minimum frequently throughout the day, especially after using bathroom/touching public door handles, using handholds on public transport, after unbagging groceries, after exchanging money/using card machines, basically touching anything other people frequently touch), then first, somebody should talk to you about the bare minimums of hygiene expected in non-Pandemic times and two, whup your ass into a slightly more sympathetic and less germ-covered way of life.

SOAP & WATER / ALCOHOL

1) Use actual soap and water to wash your hands thoroughly for at least 20 seconds every time you use the restroom (FOR ANY REASON, EVEN IF CHECKING MAKEUP OR HAIR OR OTHER NON-TOILET USE), before you eat, after you eat, after using any sort of shared touchable object or being in close quarters to it, and if you're unsure if you should wash your hands GO WASH YOUR HANDS.

2) Hand sanitizer is NOT more effective than soap and water. PERIOD. They are also used in the same ineffective way so many people use soap and water: too small an amount, too short of a time and too lazy in coverage. Sanitizer should be applied in a dollop large enough to scrub both hands using motions and medium force as if washing with soap & water (front, back, between fingers, over nails & fingertips, both thumbs, webbing, the FULL HAND) for at least 20-30secs which is how long it should take for the sanitizer to evaporate. Amount used doesn't cover both hands fully? Use more. Hands dry after 8 second if scrubbing after putting dollop in palm? Not enough sanitizer used, add more and try again. Alcohol also may kill the virus, but it does not clean your hands and should never be used as a single or primary measure to avoid infection. Keep a bit on hand for those times when soap & water aren't readily available, use it correctly (dollop large enough to wet all surfaces of both hands, rub hands while being attentive to cover every part, hands should feel wet from the gel for 30+ seconds before they start to dry, because you are substituting the alcohol for water and essentially washing your hands with it!!

"Alcohol free" hand sanitizers are basically useless against most viruses and bacteria, including COVID-19. Hand sanitizers must be at least 60% alcohol to be effective, and many homemade concoctions suggest Vodka in their recipes, which is about worthless due to it being 40%. Others recommend 91-99% Isopropyl Alcohol aka 'rubbing alcohol' which can be even worse if the batch is made incorrectly, because it is easily absorbed by human skin and can cause damages leaving you more vulnerable to infections.

The same reason that alcohol works to kill viruses and bacteria is why it's able to damage human skin. It breaks down lipids (fats) and proteins. So called 'enveloped viruses' (COVID-19 in one) have a thin lipid membrane that they live inside and use to find and latch on to host cells. If that membrane is damaged, the virus has no way of feeling for nor attaching to possible host cells, so it dies.

Alcohol solvents being as successful as they are at breaking down lipids, you can imagine how it could hurt our lipids and protein heavy bodies. Using 90%+ isopropyl alcohol in a DIY could leave you with dry, damaged skin as well as cracks and fissures around your nailbeds. That damage is dangerous because your wet tissues and capillaries are now unprotected and vulnerable to viral attack. These types of alcohol can also be fussy with their high evaporative rates as well as interactions with other possible ingredients suggested by DIYers on line could cause many issues. Even compounding pharmacists and chemists are saying what a pain it is to make correctly! Not all Aloe Vera gels are pure aloe. Not all brands or types of gel or alcohol will work with such general, simplified recipes. Essential oils being added is a whole other thing that adds issues, because while a few can be used internally or in wounds with precautions, too many on the market today fail to clearly disclose their processes or full ingredients, are not meant for internal use (open wounds = internal) and like many supplements they are not regulated by the FDA so not tested or held to standard.

3) If you cough or sneeze, do so into a disposable tissue or napkin. DO IT EVERY TIME, not just with deep or phlegmy/productive ones. If air is being expelled forcefully from your throat, lungs or sinuses, have a clean tissue at the ready. After coughing/sneezing, dispose of the tissue in a trash can with a bag liner so the bag can be tied off before disposal which can help mitigate risk to people cleaning or collecting garbage. If you do not have a tissue/napkin, whatever, turn your head and nestle your exploding face hole(s) snugly into the inside bend of your elbow so any emissions are caught by the fabric. Using the same side if it happens repeatedly so you can keep that fabric close to you and avoid touching others with that area, rather than worrying about both arms. No sleeves? Pull up the collar if your shirt, tuck your face down a bit and hold the collar firm over the bridge of your nose and cheeks (similar to how your hands are when using a tissue) so anything coming out of your face is expelled between the shirt fabric and your body/inner layers. ** IF YOU USE THE ELBOW OR SHIRT TECHNIQUE DO NOT FORGET TO WASH YOUR FACE, NECK AND CHEST THOROUGHLY AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, just as you would your hands (20 sec+, soap & water).

[[Related tip: Carrying a ziploc-type bag with you allows you to tuck dirty tissues away while not smearing whatever all over your pockets or bag interiors, too. Those mini Doggie poop bag things that fit on Keychains or bags are another thing to keep with you, for your own tissues or wipes used to clean handles, or even as a 'glove' in a pinch and since they come in bundles you can share with others who need them.]]

So no matter how you slice it, people who have it are out in public spreading it for a day or two minimum. Young, healthy people who don't feel sick and aren't worried because they're likely to survive it are less concerned with the situation even while they are possibly infecting vulnerable groups. Again, the reason for the social distancing and quarantines is to stop the spread and lower risk for people who can and will die. The fewer people it can infect, the fewer can pass it on. The less interaction we have, the lesser the chance we catch and/or spread it. Right now, we here in the US still don't have but half an idea of an area that MAY have cases, because our government are a bunch of greedy fearmongering idiots who care about money more than people and about being right more than being aware.

So let me ask a question to the thousands of people are still going out at night, eating at restaurants, clubbing, calling ridesharing, resisting seclusion/quaratine and generally being completely selfish uncaring assholes: Should I save a seat in in the front row at my immunosuppressed sibs funeral or would you like your name engraved on a memorial bench slat for my diabetic, post-polio syndrome suffering Mum? I suppose at least that would have symmetry with her, as Americans starved her and didn't care if she lived or died as a child (being Indonesian/Javanese = an evil Jap to Americans then) so young Americans ignoring truths and not giving a shit about their actions potential killing her is pretty fucking disappointingly on brand. She could honestly, truly die with her first and last memories of Americans being blatantly uncaring of her life, mocking her fear, denying her help, and watching her family crying around her. Thanks for that, fellow Americans. (Oh, and if you did read the question, I mention a memorial bench because she's donating her body to science to help other people. Even in her death she gives more of a fuck about other people who are sick and need help than the majority of you assholes.)

Maybe that's too much, so lemme take it back a notch and use something less personal and less technical:

How about we say it's like a drunk driver in an armored HumVee speeding through a parade of golf carts.

The person in the HumVee thinks they're fine and puts a bunch of faith in their strong, durable vehicle and ability to control it, so aren't concerned about whatever obstacles arise. The golf carts, meanwhile, are also vehicles with engines and some manueravbility but minimum protection, and the people inside are basically out in the open.

The HumVee hits the carts and they are destroyed, the passengers hurt or killed, and the drunk dude in the HumVee is fine to trundle on to the next situation.

Healthy/young/wilfully ignorant people are currently behaving like that HumVee dude.

(and obviously I am not including people forced to work in order to not end up homeless as HumVee drivers here, this is pointed at people who are blowing off the situation, ignoring facts and being selfish)

—— Here's some info on what happened during the SARS pandemic, which COVID-19 is related to virally and the contagion spread similar, for anyone who is unfamiliar :

The SARS index patient in Hong Kong was a doctor who had treated SARS patients prior to heading to a family event. He did not think he had SARS, because even tho he had some symptoms, a chest x-ray he had done on himself was clear, so he traveled. He ended up infecting several people at the hotel he stayed at overnight, and more when he checked into the Hong Kong hospital. When he checked into the local hospital, more people were infected, including an American who was in a room on the same floor at the hospital. That American ended up feeling sick after leaving, so checked into a hospital in Hanoi. They shortly called in an infectious disease specialist (a WHO doctor in Bangkok) to the Hanoi hospital. He identified that this disease was an unknown new respitory virus, saw that several staff were already showing symptoms and made the call to warn the global community, giving the disease the tentative name of SARS. The WHO specialist, Dr. Urbani, he was a young, healthy Italian doctor, but he still died a month later.

The index patient (a respiratory specialist MD, in his 60s) in Hong Kong died, as did the American (a businessman, 48) who caught it from him, as did the WHO doctor (specialist, 46) who treated the American and others at the Hanoi hospital.

Dr. Liu, the one who traveled, was a super-spreader who is linked to the vast majority of Hong Kong SARS, between 75-92%.

The people who were infected at the hotel went on to travel and spread it to Canada (major hospital outbreak from 1 hotel guest), Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand.

This is the perfect example of why having people who may have COVID-19 enter hospitals is a BAD Idea and why having drive-through testing for it, like what was done in S. Korea, is a good idea.

Dr. Liu didn't just infect a handful of people at the hotel, he infected dozens of already sick, compromised people in a hospital, and also infected staff who died.

The Canadian woman from the hotel infected an assumed 100 people at the hospital she entered when arriving home.

This is why the self-quaratine and suggestions need to be taken seriously. Populations who are vulnerable and basically isolated from society because they are in hospitals or rest homes caught it because it was brought to them by a variety of sick people of different ages, health and severity. Sick young people went to hospitals and older people died. This is why everyone is being directed to call hotline before arriving at hospitals full of sick, vulnerable people.

I hope this helps develop a picture of why these quarantine and preventative measures should be taken seriously, and help you understand this example: Bob, a reasonably healthy guy in his 20s, develops a bit of a cough but blows it off as whatever, then goes out with his friends and gets on a train that several nurses who're going to work are on, he could infect them and they could go into work unknowingly carrying a death sentence for someone recovering from an organ transplant or a kid with a compromised immune system waiting for chemo.

Some of the groups that are on the fringes of society and rarely interact with larger groups are still at risk from secondary transmissions from the employees/staff/medical people that assist them. In high population areas or densely populated cities, even things like an apartment building shared laundry or residents-only gyms, common rooms, etc. are all possibly zones of contagion. Wash your goddamn hands, don't touch all the things around you like a child, and if your city has announced positive cases of COVID-19 please acknowledge that even if you have zero symptoms you could still be infected & contagious and take the necessary precautions along with abiding by the requests to not gather or whatever.

If you are young and healthy and get COVID-19, you may recover. The three people who caught it from you may recover. The five people they passed it to may not.

If you still have a job and are financially ok, consider taking the money you normally spend on your weekly bar visit with friends or Tuesday bingo or whatever the fuck and see if there are any groups or whatnot gathering up money/goods for restaurant, service and other workers who no longer have jobs rather than foolishly throwing middle fingers in the air while bitching about how inconvenient everything is because some old pepple may die or some sick or otherwise useless humans suffering or dying isn't something that makes it OK for your life to be messed with. You probably don't read the pleas from doctors around the globe, or the widows of healthy 30 year olds, or Type 1 diabetics being hit hard, or that this is 20X more deadly than any influenza, mild cases can still honeycomb your lungs and the US still hasn't started the testing we need to determine where it is, how fast it is moving, rates and types of transmission, severity, you name it, and the weakens the global effort because we can't provide other countries with information that could help save them from the fate China, Italy and now the USA will go through.

Want to save the world? Grow the fuck up and take yourself out of the possible patient pool, eat a snack, drink some water, take your meds, put on fresh underpants and breathe. Then get used to this new state of suckage, muster up some energy to vote and then maybe take another nap to recover a bit, because I can tell you none of this shit is ending tomorrow except my sliver of willingness to hold my tongue.

Buckle it up, assholes, those HumVees are coming, so let's work together to take them down like Betty White and Mark Hamill are in those carts and you're all that stands between them and certain death. Because....

Here's the worst of it all, youths : you actually are what stands between them and disaster, this is your reality now, so either educate, protect and defend each other because courage and compassion are worth it, or choose to be callous and cruel to each other until those traits kill you, too. If you're lucky, maybe that cruelty will kill you faster than all these fucking Boomers. If I'm lucky, it'll kill me before I have to be sandwiched between two groups who both will do The Most to win because fuck compromise or moderation or change or discovery and fuck science and tradition and casseroles and Boba tea and lord if if I have to go through four more fucking decades of it I'll burn it down my damn self.

This is it, buckaroos. It's the end of the world as we caused it, and I AM SO FUCKING FAR FROM FINE.

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