#are alex and willie faring better? yes and no

[innytoes]

"I’m a real adult, just last week I bought a vegetable." for Peterpatterlina

Becoming a world famous band almost overnight before Julie had even graduated high school had its perks. Of course, she got to do what she loved, playing music with the guys. She got to travel the country, and later the world. She got to go to cool parties and wear fancy clothes. She got to sit near Beyoncé at the Grammies. They got to do a Buzzfeed Puppy Interview.

Also, there was the stuff she pointed out to her aunt. She didn't really have to worry about the job market, because even if the band called it quits for some reason, she had so many connections she could make it as a solo artist or a song writer. And with the money the first album and the tours had made, she didn't have to worry about scholarships, or loans, if she wanted to go to university. All the money mom and dad had saved could go to Carlos' education.

There were downsides, of course. Tour buses were kind of the worst, as was the paparazzi and the gossip. The schedule could be exhausting, especially when you added in press and events. Sometimes she missed home, missed her family and friends. But it was worth it.

After their world tour, when they were back stateside again, she, Luke, and Reggie bought a nice, big apartment near the beach. Reggie missed hearing the waves, and honestly, she wasn't going to say no to watching her boys attempt to surf on their days off from workshopping their new album.

One thing she hadn't expected was just how difficult normal life was. After a couple of years of mostly touring or recording and crashing at her dad's in between, this was really the first time they had to... well, adult. Do laundry, and cook for themselves, and clean the apartment, and make sure they went to bed at a decent hour so their sleep schedule wouldn't do a full 180 and make them nocturnal.

Suddenly, she felt very guilty about ragging on her dad for making spaghetti so often.

"Do you ever feel like we're just like, fake adults?" she asked the boys, staring at the contents of their fridge. The bottle of ketchup, sad wrinkled grapes, and some dubious-looking lunch meat stared back at her. She was pretty sure everything but the ketchup should be thrown out.

"Hey, I'm a real adult," Luke defended. "Just last week I bought a vegetable."

Julie opened the vegetable drawer at the bottom of the fridge. The smell made her shut it almost immediately.

"I forgot the vegetable, didn't I?" Luke said, peering over the back of the couch. Slowly, Julie closed the fridge. "I'm sorry. Maybe we do suck at being adults."

"Don't worry guys, I've got this," Reggie said, getting out his phone. Yeah that seemed about right. They could just give up and order delivery or something. They could try being real adults again tomorrow. Or just live on take-out forever. Julie made her way over to the couch and crawled on top of Luke, burying her face in his neck. He wrapped his arms around her, hugging her close.

"Ray says we’re welcome to come over for dinner," Reggie reported. "I also texted your aunt, she'll meet us there. Maybe she can teach us how to like, meal plan or something. Or load us up with so many tupperwares we have at least another two weeks to figure out how to cook for ourselves like real adults."

Julie smiled, lips still pressed against Luke's neck. God bless their boyfriend for knowing the perfect solution to their angst. Of course the answer was family.

"Oh sweet, Ray's making spaghetti!"

[shan2-d2]

As the garbage fire year of 2020 continues, I have been struggling to find something to fill the Schitt’s-Creek-sized hole in my heart.

Which, come to think of it, replaced the Parks-and-Rec-sized hole in my heart prior to that.  I’ve always been a sucker for “soft” television, but with everything going on the world, whatever tolerance I had for heavier fare has disappeared completely.  Like, yeah, I’d love to catch I May Destroy You or I’ll Be Gone in the Dark, but I just. Can’t. Handle. Them. Right now, anyway.  

I do have some old standards to fall back on-- Bob’s Burgers, The Good Place, The Great British Baking Show, and Kim’s Convenience (bless you, Canada) work just fine.  But with so much time at home, I’ve been getting antsy for new, soft, comforting content.

Then I watched Julie and the Phantoms on Netflix.

And I loved it SO. MUCH. 

(Warning, since this is a family-friendly show: profanity ahead.)

Which, I have to admit, I’m kind of embarrassed about.  Like, look: I fully own up to the fact that my tastes aren’t exactly refined or mature.  I’m one of those contemptible “childless millennials”, after all.  There are things on my Netflix and Spotify lists that would make film buffs and hipsters cry.

But what I will give myself a pat on the back for is that I’m extremely open-minded when it comes to any sort of art consumption.  My tastes are super-varied, and I don’t have the burden of worrying about what is “socially acceptable” for me to watch.  I can watch Barry and Fleabag just as happily as I can watch Sarah & Duck (literally, a show for preschoolers that works better than any anti-anxiety medication I’ve tried) and old episodes of Tiny Toon Adventures.

Regardless, there’s embarrassment. Which is not about the fact that it’s a cheesy, High-School-Musical-esque, pre-teen friendly series, actually (... okay, maybe a little), but because the aging freakout is real, my friends.  Hitting the “Oh-My-God, I’d-Have-To-Play-the-PARENT” period of your life is fucking rough.�� 

Basically, in the words of Roger Murtaugh... I’m too old for this shit.

But I’m trying to tell myself that 1) Generation Z is delightful and I refuse to feel guilt for appreciating them, 2) god knows we’re all watching Stranger Things without embarrassment, and those kids are, like, twelve, and 3) now that I’m apparently ANCIENT, I’m supposed to stop caring about what other people think.

So: Julie and the Phantoms made my heart grow three sizes and I loved it a whole lot.

Quick synopsis: Julie, our hero, is a performing arts school student who is grieving the death of her mom and unable to continue making/playing music because of it.  One day, three ghosts of teenage boys who were in a mid-90’s rock band show up in her garage.  They form a new band (insert title of show here) and help Julie rediscover her love of music, while she helps them navigate the afterlife.  Bonding occurs, lessons are learned, the power of friendship is discovered, you get the idea.

And okay-- at its surface, it’s family-friendly entertainment, you know? Cute story, funny moments, the music is catchy, the whole cast is super talented (and, hey, can actually play their instruments! Whaddaya know!).

But the CHARACTERS!  THE SOFTNESS! THE REPRESENTATION!  If this is how young adults are going to written from now on, sign me the fuck up.

First of all, the two female leads of the show are women of color-- Julie (Madison Reyes) is Latinx and her best friend, Flynn (Jadah Marie), is Black.  That alone is (sadly, STILL) noteworthy, but I literally wanted to stand on my couch and yell about how wonderfully self-assured, smart, mature, strong, and competent these girls are.  Julie, in particular, is just… she’s just so cool, you guys. She never once has to rely on anyone else but herself to get shit done, and she takes responsibility for her own actions.  The girl very clearly knows her talent, capabilities, and worth, and PHEW, do we need to see more young women like her on our screens!  Like, yes, the boys support her, but they’re complete equals.  Julie doesn’t need any male saviors up in this business. She’s got this.  I LOVE HER. I SOMEHOW WANT TO BE HER WHEN I GROW UP, EVEN THOUGH SHE’S LIKE HALF MY AGE (oh GOD. I’m so OLD).

In fact, throughout the series, the importance of honesty, respect, and healthy support is repeatedly emphasized.  There’s no dependency issues here, and lying of any kind is clearly forbidden.  Which I loved, because the whole “teen lying to everyone” storyline has been done to death.

Then there’s the three boys of Sunset Curve-- Luke (Charlie Gillespie), Alex (Owen Joyner), and Reggie (Jeremy Shada), i.e. the messengers of destruction for toxic masculinity.  THIS IS THE MALE FRIENDSHIP PORTRAYAL WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR, PEOPLE.  They’re so nice to each other! They’re so supportive! They’re tactile, openly emotional, and completely devoid of judgment of any interests or behaviors that don’t follow male social standards.  Bless the Age of the Soft Boys, may their reign be unbreakable and everlasting.

Oh, and Alex is openly gay.  It’s not just hinted at-- he’s out and proud, with an adorable crush/pre-relationship with a skater boy named Willie (Booboo Stewart).  And, apart from a quick mention about Alex’s parents being homophobic, the show pretty much takes the Schitt’s Creek route-- all love and acceptance, with not much of a thing made of his sexuality at all (in fact, there’s enough evidence that none of the boys are completely straight, and I’m here for that, too).

And if all of that isn’t enough of a cuddle to the heart for you, THERE’S MORE:

Julie’s supportive, soft dad

Reggie’s immediate, one-sided bond with Julie’s supportive, soft dad and her brother

Julie and Luke totally have crushes on each other and it’s SO SWEET but completely age-appropriate, good job guys

I’m a sucker for good harmonies and the band HAS ‘EM IN SPADES

Flynn being HBIC the entire series

Julie’s crush Nick being very realistically awkward and dopey in the shadow of Luke’s arms (Nick, dude, lose that HAT, I beg of you)

A surprisingly moving side-plot/song about Luke’s parents

Alex just wanting to dance, and also being a high-key feminist and calling out the others when they slip up

EVERYONE’S JUST SO FUCKING NICE, OKAY

So yeah. Shut up. It’s wonderful and pure, and I WILL TAKE ANY SOFTNESS I CAN GET IN THIS HELL YEAR, WHEREVER I CAN GET IT.

In conclusion, Kenny Ortega can have my entire soul if he wants it, for not only this but also Hocus Pocus and Newsies.

Completely Unnecessary Afterword:

Being old enough to remember 1995-- and, specifically, what was popular that year-- has brought up some important questions regarding the Sunset Curve boys:

We know they died in ‘95, but like… when? Did they get to see Empire Records, for Christ’s sake?! Did they see Casper, because, I mean, they’re basically the Devon Sawas of 2020?  Were they spared their contemporaries’ fate of constantly over-quoting Billy Madison and Tommy Boy?  

OH MY GOD, DID THEY HAVE AOL SCREEN NAMES, AND WHAT WERE THEY??

What are each of the guys’ favorite song off of Boyz II Men’s “II”? This is possibly the MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION.

Did they die before Jagged Little Pill came out?  That would kind of break my heart.  Not that I expect Julie to start portraying Alanis-levels of anger/angst, but ‘95 was a YEAR for women in rock.  Garbage, Hole, No Doubt, PJ Harvey, The Cranberries, Veruca Salt, Bjork, and countless others-- they all had massive hits that year.  I love the idea of Julie and the guys sitting around the garage listening to all of those women for inspiration.  Can we have a resurgence of female-led rock bands taking over the charts, please?

On a much more serious note, given where the AIDS crisis was in ‘95, it’s no wonder Alex is a nervous wreck. It’s not really something I expect the show to delve into, but man… getting transported to 2020 might’ve been a bit of a blessing (not that things are great now, but y’know, medical progress).

How in the world did none of them fall victim to the whole “white boys dressing hip-hop” trend back in ‘95? I mean… Clueless got it right. (Wait, did they make it to Clueless??)

[junker-town]

And now, Coastal Carolina’s FBS era begins in earnest

Jamey Chadwell officially takes the reins from Joe Moglia, and the Chanticleers begin looking for ways to stand out in the Sun Belt.

Bill C’s annual preview series of every FBS team in college football continues. Catch up here!

The Joe Moglia Story was just missing another win or two.

By now, you probably know the structure of the story pretty well: Ivy League assistant quits coaching in the early-1980s, leaves to work for Merrill Lynch, then makes infinity dollars as CEO of TD Ameritrade.

Finding he’s got the itch to coach again, and not needing the money, he volunteers on Bo Pelini’s Nebraska staff for a year, briefly coaches in the UFL, and then finds that Coastal Carolina is somehow willing to make him its head coach. He quickly builds a top-10 FCS program, then Coastal makes the jump to FBS. Only, he misses the Chanticleers’ debut season to fight cancer. He returns in 2018 for what turns out to be his final season on the sidelines.

It was one of the stranger, more redeeming stories you’ll ever see for a Wall Street millionaire/billionaire, and it deserved a bowl at the end of it. With Coastal heading into November at 5-3, that appeared likely. But the Chants lost their final four games, losing to maybe the Sun Belt’s three best teams at home and then slipping up, 31-28, at South Alabama in Mobile. Moglia retired and handed the reins back to Jamey Chadwell, his offensive coordinator and 2017 interim head coach.

Well, he sort of retired. Moglia is still listed on CCU’s Coaching Staff page. His title: “Chairman of Athletics / Executive Director for Football / Executive Advisor to the President.”

Once a CEO, always a CEO.

Anyway, Chadwell is technically in charge now. And he’s got a pretty unique story himself; at least, he does as much as anyone can next to Moglia.

Still only in his early 40s, Chadwell’s already on his fourth head coaching gig. He led North Greenville for three seasons, taking the Crusaders to the Division II quarterfinals in 2011, and after a year at Delta State, he jumped to Charleston Southern in 2013. His Buccaneers twice made the FCS playoffs, including a quarterfinal run in 2015, before he joined Moglia and Coastal right before their FBS jump in 2017.

Chadwell knows the head coaching role, and he knows the Myrtle Beach area. (CCU is basically about 15 minutes from the Atlantic Ocean.) The timing has been odd since he took the job — immediately go from OC to Interim Head Coach, back to OC, then back to Non-Interim HC, all within two years — but he could be well-suited for the role all the same.

He’s got some work to do. Coastal was pretty good offensively last year but has to replace its leading quarterback, its most frequent ball-carrier, its leading receiver, and the right side of its line. The defense is experienced, but, well, the defense was terrible last year.

The offense will still have to carry a good amount of weight, but it might do so. Two sophomore quarterbacks — Fred Payton and Bryce Carpenter — each outperformed outgoing senior Kilton Anderson when given the opportunity, junior running back CJ Marable averaged 6.2 yards per carry as basically a co-starter with Marcus Outlow, and the receiving corps is loaded with underclassmen with potential.

(Unfortunately, said receiving corps is without rugby wunderkind Tyrese Johnson-Fisher — rugby highlights here — who attempted to transition to football and redshirted last year, then apparently put his name in the Transfer Portal in February, as did a few starters and potential starters.)

Without Moglia (or Johnson-Fisher, for that matter), Coastal’s story is a little bit less unique now; the Chants are now a lot more like every other recent FCS program attempting to carve out an FBS niche. But that doesn’t mean they can’t fare well at some point.

Offense

The defense’s collapse prevented a bowl bid, which prevented us from more clearly noticing just how much the offense improved last year. The Chants jumped from 104th to 77th in Off. S&P+, combining solid run explosiveness (48th in Rushing S&P+) with pass efficiency (26th in passing marginal efficiency despite a horrid sack rate).

They possessed a unique mix of efficiency and inefficiency, and three different QBs played between seven and nine games, but it worked for a while. Coastal averaged 31.5 points per game during its 5-3 start and hung 47 on an excellent UAB offense early in the season.

Anderson dealt with an ankle injury for much of the season and eventually missed time, and then Carpenter injured his knee as well. Payton threw the ball well against the best of the Sun Belt late in the year, but the run game dried up a bit, and the struggling defense made sure that any drive failures put the game out of reach.

Brian Westerholt-USA TODAY Sports

CJ Marable

Despite transfers, the competition level should be pretty high in each unit.

Carpenter and Payton will fight it out at QB this spring. Carpenter was the more willing and efficient runner of the duo (not an unimportant thing considering the run-first nature of last year’s attack), but he also took a staggering 14 sacks in 69 pass attempts, which meant that he averaged two fewer yards per attempt than Payton (who also took a few too many) despite a higher completion rate. The winner of the battle might be determined as much by preferred playing style as on-field quality.

At RB, Outlow graduated and third-stringer Alex James transferred, but Marable and Jacqez Hairston, both juniors, were the two most productive backs per-carry — Marable averaged 6.2 yards per carry with a 53 percent success rate, Hairston 10.7 and 67 percent, albeit over just 12 rushes. Incoming freshman Reese White was one of the stars of the 2019 recruiting haul, too.

Coastal loses No. 1 WR Malcolm Williams (47 catches, 724 yards) but returns everyone else and adds speedy Virginia Tech transfer Samuel Denmark. Senior Ky’Jon Tyler combines a slot receiver’s efficiency (74 percent catch rate) with an X-receiver’s downfield ability (15.3 yards per catch), sophomores Jaivon Heiligh and Jeremiah Miller combined for 35 catches, and sophomore tight end was a red zone threat, with five of his 12 catches resulting in scores. Add three three-star redshirt freshmen (two TEs and a WR), a three-star true freshman, and Denmark, and you’ve got nice potential depth. Marable (15 catches for 180 yards) is a threat out of the backfield, too.

The line took a hit when right guard Brock Hoffman transferred, but the Chants still have center Trey Carter and left tackle Steven Bedosky, and they played a pretty broad rotation last year. Sophomores Seth Harrell and Antwine Loper could be ready for extensive playing time.

Brian Westerholt-USA TODAY Sports

Jeremiah Miller

With Chadwell taking on a higher role, he promoted quarterbacks coach Willy Korn (yes, the former Clemson blue-chipper) and running backs coach Newland Isaac, an assistant at all three of Chadwell’s head coaching stops, to co-coordinator roles.

We’ll see if the identity changes at all. Coastal ran the ball 71 percent of the time on standard downs last year (13th-highest in FBS) and 38 percent on passing downs (43rd), which isn’t surprising, as Chadwell’s always been a run-heavy guy. But the Chants didn’t really spread opponents out (75th in solo tackles forced) and operated at one of the slowest tempos in the country. When you’ve got a defense struggling as mightily as Coastal’s did, playing at a slow pace is probably a good idea — it limits your exposure — but if the D improves, maybe the tempo goes up in turn?

Defense

Marvin Sanders’ first year in Conway could have gone better. The former North Carolina defensive coordinator, who got to know Moglia back at Nebraska, came to town with probably the best résumé on the staff, but he struggled to come up with answers for a defense hit pretty hard by attrition.

The front seven was extremely young, and the experienced unit, the secondary, got wrecked by injury. Eight defensive backs made more than 10 tackles, but only one played in all 12 games. Three freshmen — corner Derick Bush and safeties Brayden Matts and Alex Spillum — got extensive playing time, and that’s usually not good.

The pass defense was still better than the run defense, but neither were good. The Chants rushed the passer pretty well when they had the rare opportunity to (58th in sack rate), and they got better in the red zone, allowing 4.7 points per scoring opportunity, 85th in FBS. But in ranking 103rd in Passing S&P+ and 128th in Rushing S&P+, their red zone defense certainly got plenty of practice.

Photo by Lance King/Getty Images

Tarron Jackson (9)

End Jeffrey Gunter and his 14 tackles for loss are gone, but most of Coastal’s other havoc-friendly players are back in the front seven. That includes junior Tarron Jackson (11 TFLs and a team-leading 18 run stuffs), junior linebackers Teddy Gallagher and Silas Kelly, and tackle Sterling Johnson.

The size up front is solid, though Jackson is very much the only known entity at end.

Photo by Lance King/Getty Images

Silas Kelly

The good news for the secondary is that while five of the 10 leading tacklers are gone, most of the right ones return. Matts and Spillum were probably as good as any of the safeties, and senior corner Mallory Claybourne, the steadiest of the corners, is back. Depth is an obvious concern, but perhaps a couple of youngsters can help solve that problem. A lot of CCU’s more recent star recruits — redshirt freshman safety Cincir Evans, incoming freshmen Coleman Reich and KJ Johnson II — are DBs.

Beyond that, the only other good news here is that the bar is low.

One assumes that with his experience under both Bo Pelini and John Bunting, Sanders wants to get aggressive if he can, but he had limited opportunities to do so. Coastal should be able to rush the passer again in 2019, but that will only matter if a) the Chants can keep the right secondary on the field and b) they can figure out how to be a little less terrible in run defense.

Special Teams

The legs were assets for Coastal in 2018. Freshman place-kicker Massimo Biscardi ranked 33rd in FG efficiency, and sophomore punter Charles Ouverson averaged 43.1 yards and ranked 56th in punt efficiency.

Granted, coverage was an issue on both punts and (especially) kickoffs, and Ky’Jon Tyler’s returns, though dangerous, were pretty inconsistent. Still, Coastal ranked 58th in Special Teams S&P+ and, with everyone back, should have a good opportunity to exceed that ranking this fall. This should be one of the best special teams units in the Sun Belt.

2019 outlook

2019 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 31-Aug Eastern Michigan 96 -6.6 35% 7-Sep at Kansas 107 -6.0 36% 14-Sep Norfolk State NR 26.4 94% 21-Sep at Massachusetts 125 1.9 54% 28-Sep at Appalachian State 31 -28.5 5% 12-Oct Georgia State 114 2.1 55% 19-Oct at Georgia Southern 81 -16.6 17% 2-Nov Troy 69 -14.4 20% 7-Nov UL-Lafayette 99 -5.9 37% 16-Nov at Arkansas State 70 -19.1 14% 23-Nov at UL-Monroe 103 -9.2 30% 30-Nov Texas State 102 -4.3 40%

Projected S&P+ Rk 116 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 79 / 127 Projected wins 4.4 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -16.2 (124) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 129 2018 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -6 / -4.7 2018 TO Luck/Game -0.5 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 68% (63%, 73%) 2018 Second-order wins (difference) 3.5 (1.5)

So now Coastal attempts to settle in a bit. The Chants’ first two seasons at the FBS level have been full of transition, un-transition, and re-transition, and the product on the field has been limited by injury and inexperience.

The offensive upside here is obvious, but defense remains the obvious question mark: Coastal is projected 79th in Off. S&P+ but 127th in Def. S&P+. The makes the Chanticleers 116th overall, but thanks to a schedule with eight opponents projected 96th or worse (five of which have to visit CCU), a bowl run isn’t completely out of reach. There are five likely losses, one likely win, and six games projected within a touchdown. If Coastal can upset either EMU or Kansas early in the season, a 4-2 start isn’t out of the question.

More likely, though, is that this simply becomes the year in which Coastal attains some level of stability and begins building in earnest. Chadwick’s got a lot of sophomores around which to build, but that might not result in any major breakthrough for another year or two.

Moglia’s back story and building job were fascinating, but now it’s on Chadwick to start pushing the boulder forward.

Team preview stats

All 2019 preview data to date.

[jodyedgarus]

Mike Trout Should Have Won A Playoff Game By Now

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout is a positive outlier in far too many ways to count. But one of the rare negatives in his career to date has been a lack of postseason success — or practically any postseason action, period. The lone playoff appearance of Trout’s career happened back in 2014, when the Angels were unceremoniously swept by the pennant-bound Kansas City Royals in the American League division series. Trout hit 1-for-12 in the series, and his teammates fared little better, bringing Los Angeles’ playoff journey to an end just three games after it began.

It’s hard to believe that those three winless games represent the sum total of playoff experience for a player who, by the numbers, is the greatest of this generation. Even though it’s impossible for any single baseball player to carry a championship team the way stars can in other sports, it is highly unusual for the best player of any given MLB era to go without as much as a single victory in the postseason. The last time it happened was 100 years ago, and that was back when the “postseason” was simply the World Series — so it’s especially shocking to see it happen with today’s expanded playoff structure in which 10 teams make the postseason each year. Even worse, there’s a very good chance that the drought will continue this season for Trout and the Angels, as the decade comes to a close.

Trout has, without question, been the best individual player of the 2010s. Over the decade thus far, he leads all hitters in on-base plus slugging and ranks No. 1 among all players — both batters and pitchers — in wins above replacement (WAR).1 But among his peers atop the WAR leaderboard, Trout stands alone with that goose egg under the postseason win column:2

Trout is the best — but his playoff record isn’t

Major League Baseball leaders in total wins above replacement (WAR) — including both batting and pitching — from 2010 to 2018

WAR Team Postseason* Rk Player Batting Pitching Total Wins Losses 1 Mike Trout +64.5 0.0 64.5 0 3 2 Clayton Kershaw +2.8 55.7 58.5 31 30 3 Max Scherzer +1.5 48.6 50.0 21 27 4 Robinson Cano +49.4 0.0 49.4 10 13 5 Joey Votto +49.3 0.0 49.3 2 7 6 Justin Verlander -0.2 47.5 47.3 32 32 7 Adrian Beltre +47.2 0.0 47.2 12 14 8 Miguel Cabrera +43.3 0.0 43.3 17 21 9 Chris Sale +0.0 42.6 42.6 12 6 10 Zack Greinke +4.3 38.3 42.5 14 20 11 Andrew McCutchen +42.5 0.0 42.5 5 8 12 Buster Posey +40.3 0.0 40.3 36 17 13 Giancarlo Stanton +39.0 0.0 39.0 2 3 14 Cole Hamels +0.9 37.7 38.6 9 14 15 Paul Goldschmidt +38.2 0.0 38.2 3 6 16 Evan Longoria +38.0 0.0 38.0 5 9 17 David Price -0.3 38.0 37.7 22 27 18 Ian Kinsler +37.5 0.0 37.5 29 22 19 Josh Donaldson +37.4 0.0 37.4 14 20 20 Ben Zobrist +36.6 0.0 36.6 31 27

* Includes all games played by a player’s team, regardless of whether the player appeared in the game

Sources: Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs

When it comes to the best players of this decade, longtime Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto, whose teams have won just two playoff games during his tenure, and New York Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton come closest to Trout’s zero-win postseason record. (Stanton used to be in the zero-win club, too, before winning two playoff games with the Yankees last year.) Most of the other top players of the 2010s crack at least double-digits in the playoff win column — headlined by Buster Posey, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, whose teams have all won at least 30 playoff games this decade.

Granted, Trout has had comparatively fewer chances — he’s played only eight of the decade’s nine possible seasons (through 2018), and one of those was an abbreviated rookie year during which he appeared in just 40 games. In a way, it’s only by virtue of how individually brilliant Trout has been that we’re even in a position to compare playoff records with his rivals like this. But Trout also started his career by joining a team that had been one of the winningest of the previous decade, so you might think that advantage would have helped him make up for the lost time.

Instead, the Angels have consistently surrounded Trout with one of the worst supporting casts of any star ever, largely squandering the windfall his historic output (and cheap price tag) should have offered them. Thanks to a series of terrible free-agent signings, weak drafts and — Shohei Ohtani aside — an inability to add prospects through the international pipeline, Los Angeles has somehow won an average of only 83.8 games per season since Trout’s debut campaign. Even when the Angels looked like they might finally have some promising players around Trout in 2018, they still found a way to finish around .500 in spite of Trout’s MVP-level numbers.

All of which is to say that very little of Trout’s zero-win postseason record is actually Trout’s fault. But it would still be historically notable if the best player of a decade (by WAR) ends up being on a team that wins no playoff games that decade. The best player of the 2000s, Alex Rodriguez, was on teams that won a whopping 26 playoff games, for instance, which is the same number as the best player of the 1950s (Mickey Mantle). Most decade leaders win fewer than that, especially as we go back in time — Willie Mays was the best of the 1960s, but his team won only three postseason contests that decade because, for most of it, the playoffs were World Series or bust. Even so, the last decadelong MLB WAR leader whose teams won zero playoff games was Walter Johnson of the Washington Senators in the 1910s.3

Trout is the rare decade’s-best with no playoff wins

Best player of each decade according to wins above replacement (WAR), along with playoff record* of player’s team(s)

2010s W L WAR 2000s W L WAR Mike Trout 0 3 64.5 Alex Rodriguez 26 22 76.5 Clayton Kershaw 31 30 58.5 Albert Pujols 29 27 72.2 Max Scherzer 21 27 50.0 Barry Bonds 12 13 60.6 Robinson Cano 10 13 49.4 Randy Johnson 17 19 50.8 Joey Votto 2 7 49.3 Carlos Beltran 12 10 50.6 1990s W L WAR 1980s W L WAR Barry Bonds 8 15 80.8 Rickey Henderson 11 4 69.4 Greg Maddux 39 29 68.9 Wade Boggs 7 11 60.0 Ken Griffey Jr. 6 9 66.7 Mike Schmidt 13 12 56.6 Roger Clemens 11 8 66.0 Robin Yount 8 9 52.7 Jeff Bagwell 2 9 56.9 Alan Trammell 8 5 50.9 1970s W L WAR 1960s W L WAR Tom Seaver 6 9 68.3 Willie Mays 3 4 82.2 Joe Morgan 22 15 66.6 Hank Aaron 0 3 78.4 Johnny Bench 26 19 59.4 Frank Robinson 9 8 63.8 Bert Blyleven 7 6 59.3 Roberto Clemente 4 3 62.0 Gaylord Perry 1 3 57.1 Bob Gibson 11 10 59.2 1950s W L WAR 1940s W L WAR Mickey Mantle 26 21 67.9 Ted Williams 3 4 68.0 Stan Musial 0 0 60.0 Lou Boudreau 4 2 60.4 Robin Roberts 0 4 59.4 Stan Musial 13 10 58.2 Willie Mays 6 4 57.7 Hal Newhouser 7 7 56.2 Warren Spahn 7 7 56.5 Joe Gordon 13 8 46.9 1930s W L WAR 1920s W L WAR Jimmie Foxx 7 6 74.9 Babe Ruth 18 15 104.9 Lou Gehrig 20 3 74.7 Rogers Hornsby 5 7 95.1 Mel Ott 7 9 69.4 Harry Heilmann 0 0 55.4 Lefty Grove 7 6 66.1 Frankie Frisch 14 15 55.4 Charlie Gehringer 7 6 60.8 Tris Speaker 5 2 50.6 1910s W L WAR 1900s W L WAR Walter Johnson 0 0 100.3 Honus Wagner 7 8 81.5 Ty Cobb 0 0 84.3 Christy Mathewson 4 1 68.0 Tris Speaker 8 4 75.6 Cy Young 5 3 66.4 Eddie Collins 19 15 72.5 Nap Lajoie 0 0 64.1 Pete Alexander 3 8 63.5 Rube Waddell 1 4 53.2

* Includes all games played by a player’s team, regardless of whether the player appeared in the game

Sources: Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs

It’s certainly more possible for baseball’s best players to come up short in the postseason than in, say, basketball. Going back to the start of the NBA in 1949-50, no best player of any decade (according to a mix of value over replacement player, win shares and estimated wins added) ever played on teams that posted fewer than 30 playoff wins during that span.4 Yes, more than 50 percent of NBA teams make the playoffs each year, but we’re still talking about a handful of playoff wins per season as the minimum baseline — at the high end, LeBron James’s teams have 120 playoff wins this decade (though he won’t be adding to that tally this year). But several moves to add more postseason slots since 1994 have theoretically made it easier for MLB to show its best players in the games that matter most. For the most part, you can see the effects of that bearing out in the playoff records for top stars since the 1990s — except in the case of Trout.

And this season may not remedy the situation. The Angels are desperately trying to put Trout in a position to drive more runners in, and Ohtani could be part of that equation as a hitter again by May. But for now, FiveThirtyEight’s early preseason MLB forecast projects Los Angeles to win 81 games, with a 25 percent chance of making the playoffs. If we assume they’d have about a 45 percent chance of winning any given playoff game,5 there’s an 85 percent chance they won’t win a playoff game this year either, continuing Trout’s dubious streak through the end of the decade.

If that does happen, it shouldn’t reflect poorly on Trout’s own greatness. In fact, it’s a testament to how far we’ve come in analyzing players that we no longer ask postseason records to carry anywhere near as much weight as they used to in these kinds of debates. But it won’t make Trout’s record any less of a historical anomaly. In an era where making the playoffs is easier than ever, baseball should be able to showcase its greatest player winning games on the postseason stage. That hasn’t happened yet — and the Angels are running out of time to change Trout’s fate before he potentially leaves town for good.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mike-trout-should-have-won-a-playoff-game-by-now/