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jeffrmayhugh · 5 years ago

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Bitcoin Last Time This Happened 50%+ Move Occurred! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

The last two times that we’ve seen this signal Bitcoin dropped a subsequent 57 percent. That. Me made my stance based on. My size. My son said. I made a mistake. That made a monster. Well well well welcome back. Crown’s credo cave waking up for a little bit an earlier morning after a massively long epically long twitch stream last night which had a shit ton of fun. I want to wish everyone well who joined on in because well and everyone else as well. Because why the fuck not. But more importantly it was a it was a ton of fun so I want a massive thing. Come on out. We’ll be doing to get to the hip perhaps even longer. So the new record is on the books anyways. We’ve got a lot to talk about and good on price action as we actually are seeing a little bit of continuation over the weekend. More importantly we have some things to point out here on our crown trading app which can be found at Epcot Crown tiny dot net. It’s free. Go take an account and in and take advantage of it anyways. The open interest has actually been steadily coming up as we’ve been watching it for the last few weeks or while mostly the last week and a half has really been related to each other as we’ve seen the open interest come down as Bitcoin moves up in price action. Now we’re seeing the open interest go up as bitcoin comes down in price action that can be tied the analysis very very soon. But before we get into that also do you want to check out the other online market dynamics on of which we do see Bitcoin dominance more or less steady here. Not really seeing any much any any major change there so it’s most likely ranged on the lows vs. bitcoin. Sorry Burstow she’s on top of that total market. More or less steady as well. And the crypto fear and greed index also pretty much the same from yesterday as well although we did go from an 8 to a 12. So people getting a little bit more optimistic. Bitcoin drops down another 300 dollars very unseen stuff but that said let’s get the actual into the actual analysis right now and address the opening statement. Now typically my opening statements or Michael or my titles are completely click bait. They have very little to do with the actual content of the videos but this one is going to be the focus right now as we do have the two day dildo death cross now fully initiated. This is hard or at least has been a signal of death and destruction in bitcoin land at least the past few times that we’ve gotten it. On a macro scale now while we are here and because it is a Sunday and we will be talking about long term price analysis let’s started off with with some higher timeframes as which we will start off with the two days. So this is the green 55 that is purple 200 that is an expansion would average death cross and it is more or less confirmed. Technically speaking you know you’d want to see one more one more solidified to date although in order to fully informally say that it’s you know confirmed confirmed confirmed but this is probably good enough for me and this is essentially my read on price action and I believe that this will hold up. I mean it’s inevitably going to hold up as these are fucking moving averages to be on with as long as Bitcoin especially remains but below 7000. And even as long as it’s below about 70 300 which is actually going to be a very important number going onwards and forwards here when we look at the month close anyways as we look at it right now all these major move numbers have very aggressive negative slope specially on the 55 and the 21 and we can see that there’s been a damn good indication between these two over the history of Bitcoin. So the last few times that we’ve actually seen this happen on in Bitcoin which is actually the only true numbers that we’ve seen it in Bitcoin. Ten years of history were back on over here in in what is a September 2018 bitcoin gets a death cross right here and then slowly but surely as we get ground down below the yellow one it’s mentioned on average in all of the vaults now switch on their cell programs. That is what catalyzed this move all the way from about 65 50 high to a 52 and a quarter percent low at around thirty one ish region about what is this last year or two years ago now. Now that’s last year. Holy shit man this is fucking crazy how fast time flies. It actually is really really scary. Anyways we go back down to the time before that that we actually got this in the land of opportunity we do see that’s Bitcoin got the death cross back on over here quite similar after about a year long town trend putting it in descending triangle on the lows to September 2014 it looks like outside. September October 2014. And we get the death cross right over here. Next time gets rejected. Then it gets ground down below the yellow 21 infantrymen damage as well. Very similar. And until we put in the next major low on a massive capitulation volume spike we move about a 64 percent move from top to bottom from that last high rejection to the next low. Now before that we don’t really have any other examples because well Bitcoin hasn’t been around for all that long about a little bit over 10 years now but more importantly we have our third and potentially potentially trend forming signal of this as to time doesn’t necessarily make a trend three times does but we can look at some other exemplary indicators that are going to round at this analysis a little bit better anyways as it stands right now. Bitcoin does have the death cross more or less confirmed. I know technically you’d want to see one more one you know one more double solidified but this is probably good enough for me as I did say and just playing with numbers here as I do think that that’s fun to do you know plant a plant plant some number games we can shave off you know an average of that price that we’ve seen before and just check out where bitcoin may find itself as if we do shave off about 50 whereas let’s put it that actually puts us that back down around here and our 3000 or low or thirty three hundred although if you wanna get exact with that numbers now that that number actually is quite interesting because we do go over here to see armies. Well for all the gap boys that talk about eleven thousand five hundred and more recently eighty seven hundred right here and we will have certainly another one open up today as well assuming that big one doesn’t have a five minute rally to the upside before C.M. is open at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time by the way we just had daylight savings here in Finland and I fucking hate this is the worst. It’s literally the worst day of the year every fucking year. I absolutely despise it why take away why take away an hour of sleep. I don’t know but that’s just what we do as humans I suppose. Anyways I just lost my train of thought was I about say yes. So as far as CND go we do see that there’s going to be we’re going to open up on another gap on it over here. But the gap that people don’t actually really like to talk about too often or at least the people who perhaps you know live with their parents and do cryptocurrency analysis and talk about inflation and hyper inflation without doing any sort of fucking relativity calculations which is what makes that even fucking relevant to begin with. Anyway sorry. We do see that there actually is a little bit of a gap action back down around here. Now is this a major one. No I don’t really think so and to be quite honest with you I don’t think that it actually even is a gap but it is funny that people seem to really focus on the ones that point north rather than ones that point south. I traded well I’ve traded our so I started out as professional market maker authorized trader and we well in traditional markets you have gaps all the time because there’s an open and only trade for 6 ½ hours a day as you know which is quite different than this right here which you know CNE futures trade like five days a week for but you know most the trading day. But you still get gaps on them anyways. My point is is that you know in traditional markets gaps are certainly relevant and certainly very much very much viable trading strategy. But there’s a very specific way to be doing it and it’s really not relevant until you actually get there with price action you don’t just look at it as like a fucking vacuum but it is interesting that we’re gonna show a few things that kind of line up but this area down around here. So we’ll keep that in the back of our minds eye and in all and as always for the people in the TIA program I want to be following up on that. You do have a bonus module that I uploaded maybe a few months ago away in the back of the program. Holy shit man. Programs like literally more than 2 x long of what I of what I initially debuted at with but it’s like it’s like my life’s work now is what it is. And and that goes over Gap Theory and then grab trading strategies anyways so as we focus in on what’s going on read it over here. Back on our back on our bitcoin charts I want to now put the I want to now put to D what’s it called the spotlight on what do what do we want take this next because there’s so many ways take this. Well let’s let’s let’s first just talk about the daily The Daily divergences which I believe are present on semi’s. Actually no actually yes they are. So we do have hit bearish divergence between this point at about 80 150 and this local high that we’re kind of confirming right now are in the process of confirming massive doubling between this point at this point right here. I do like that. I think it’s one of more pronounced actually on spot price action between this point and this point in fact do we even make two drops of governance. No we did not but we get a little bit of perhaps regular back right around here. Actually we did although albeit not all that strong anyways more importantly as bitcoin does start as Bitcoin has kind of been rise up this whole way Remember remember the things that we’ve been looking at with the open interest initially coming down ever since Bitcoin had that’s Diablo about 4000 bucks right and over here then volume started tailing off and price section was rising what does that tell you that tells you that the rise in price action was coming from Schwartz closing which just means that bears are taking profit and now it looks like because we see open interest start to steadily rise again we’ve actually seen them add one hundred million one hundred million contract position since since like you know about a week ago in price action now coming down. That does tell me that side that does give us a good insight that likely what the big market movers are doing is that they are adding book back on to short positions. So people aren’t you know I mean know what you’d expect in bitcoin actually was going to have a reversal here is you would have expected that we would have actually stepped back above about 7000 bucks and held above there on a daily with open interest rising as well. That was exactly the opposite of what happened thus far does mean that it can’t change. But I would say with the time with the time ticking down until the monthly close that is becoming a shorter and shorter window because we do have about two days left. Yeah two days left in the trading in the trading month. And so that’s going to make us really consider the monthly look which will get into you. Well let’s let’s get into it after after looking at momentum is on the daily so daily stocks have come up all the way all the way to the bullish control zone and still price action is more or less caught in a range also within the context of a rising channel bear flag. So we see a redistribution pattern this guy running over here while volumes tailing off so that confirms a pattern. While volatility has been tailing off the whole way through which also confirms a pattern which by the way this same volatility read that we’ve been speaking about for the last few days has actually catalyzed as we showed before about one thousand fifteen hundred dollar boost plus in the past pretty pretty damn nice we’ll be seeing contraction going all the way from March 13th at the major low to where we are right now and now starting to spike back up and maintain above the moving average on it which tells us that we’re probably looking at a move relatively soon sooner rather than later most likely in the last time that we’ve had you know readings like this were well dry. What should should I tell you. Well I should tell you back on over here at the last height about ten thousand five hundred you see it’s very very low after that spike up and then boom massive move from 10000 down to. I mean you could say down to 70 77. You could say all the way to our low. That’s a little bit too aggressive though time before that was coming off our 14000 da high right and over here gets extremely low right and after that breaks 10 3 all the way down to you know fast all the way down to like Sunny five hundred then you know a little bit more for another thousand bucks. But I think that’s asking for a little bit too much there. And then of course you know we have the same thing going on in 2018 right and over here where we get extremely low. I can’t I’m not going to zero in on it too much that I won’t spend too much time on this because we’ve already done it before. But of course as you do see we do see a major spike up as price action falsity to the downside. So those things the underlying market dynamics matching up with the well which with just generic technicals right here as well which is which I. Which is what I typically do like as a trader. So we’re caught in a rising channel which is the redistribution pattern. We see volume tailing off. We see open interest going up as price actually goes down. By the way. And we see volatility at a at a state wide basically at a point that we are very likely to see a major inflection point on the market meaning that we have a ton of juice built up for a big bad move relatively soon. I don’t think that doing time analysis is is that all worthwhile or at least I don’t think that it can be consistently done but volatility is the only way that we can really get an idea of what’s more likely cause volatility volatility like this is probably the most dependable indicator in the sense that you can always count on volatility to expand and contract. It’s a mean reverting indicator and that’s just the way that’s designed and that’s the beauty of mathematics and that is incredibly useful as a trader in this market. So what does that mean. Well it as you know as we do have a rising channel going on right here you could even call it a bear flag and we will talk about Bear Flag targets after this although I don’t think that it’s actually a bear flag. But but but a rising channels measure move is just as is is pretty nasty as well. We do see that the bottom side support of this which is currently coming in around 59 50 ish region would would would constitute our lower support trendline of this rise channel just like this blue box over here at around 73 hundred which is going to be very very important number by the way for the monthly governs our topside resistance anyways if we break below this blue box right here that will initiate a major move technically all the way down to about 41 50 ish region down around here 40 to under this region in this blue box. Technically speaking on lower on lower lows we closed down them which actually will give the higher timeframes a chance to get divergence which means that we could bottom out or least historically speaking that’s what we look for bitcoin to bottom out. Not only that but while we are here on the floor out of the four hour 21 century average is looking across the downs of the 55 while need to see it kind of like a rolling over it here anyways. Anyways what what tip was I just on just there. Yes. OK cool so while we do have this up. We do have you know we do have a way for it now. Do you think that there would be bounced along the way and you know who’s who knows how long this takes to play out. Who fucking cares. Doesn’t matter. I just go level by level. Of course if we do break fifty nine fifty to the downside I would look for moved down to about fifty five hundred ish region which also can be the weekly taunted simple which will look out a little bit later then after that. I do think that bitcoin would have another short term time frame bounce somewhere around 51 50 and then probably rollover its way all the way down here to its final destination. You know assuming that this all works out but we’re making massive assumptions right now. I just want to show that all these things work together and when we look at our higher term time frame signals right now it does suggest that we do have some downside. Also while we are here on our medium term time frames let’s go over to the 12 hour twelve hour stocks still still plenty down and still kind of call in this range that we’ve been working on scientists already have that trend on in right there. But remember that trend line right there that that’s the one that made me really consider that 60 800 ish region as a nice area of distribution and a local top which did play out. I’m not saying that sound arrogant but I am saying that to follow up for the people who’ve been on this channel for quite some time and you know sometimes sometimes these signals do take a little bit of time but if you know once you’ve seen them play out a few times then you trust OK or maybe not trust is the right word but you see how that interaction is likely to play out and you don’t get you don’t get you don’t get thrown off when you’re trading a 12 hour and then you get under the fucking 30 minute chart and start getting scared about every last little you know momentum also to turn up there or divergence play there. It’s irrelevant it’s doesn’t matter it’s bullshit but more importantly on the twelve hour right here we have some very nice trend lines at a bitcoin been playing off of for the last couple months. And when you find some that works. What about one of the things that my mentor always said and I used to fucking hate it but it is so damn true the more and more that I meditate on it and that is when you fight when it comes to tentacle announced and you find some that works just stick with that until it stops working and then find something new and you’re just kind of going off of what the next operators is you know is running with and kind of finding out whatever their edges anyways. Right now we do have a pretty damn good one as Bitcoin has been getting rejected by this trend line ever since February 9th when Bitcoin was quite literally all the way over here at about 10000 bucks a little bit north of 10000 bucks so got that high right there. Then that high is next. Our. The next guy that got that guy rejected on this trend line and was back on over here in March right here before the inevitable doom dropped from about 8000 down to forty five hundred if you want to call it that. And then once again hitting it hitting that trend line right here more recently at 67 50 ish region. Now I do believe that this probably is more more more time to play out. But I also believe that we’re kind of we’re you know we’re going to bounce off this trend line down around here and we’re going to be caught into a nice consolidation period and then have a resolution way may maybe in like mayor or some like that. What is next month is March April May 4th. That’s that’s too far away. Well fair enough. This market probably gets slowed down. It has been quite volatile recently and well after volatile expands and it contracts anyways this trend line coming down around the edge of the bull sorry edge of the bearish control zone is quite nice as well as we typically do see some counter time pressure there and also connected with some very important lows coming in from our bouncy bounce right here from about eighty five to nine five thousand dollar move then. But then right after that we got this little side note not that bounce right there. This this this one right here from 39 all the way to 58. Jesus Christ. 2004 move. Then again right after that right here around 45 all the way up to I mean really 66 and then now we are kind of caught in a range. So I do like that three touches does make a trend. And we have three on both sides and I really really really really really like that. Anyways I would suggest that we do have momentum to begin to the downside here and it does help me kind of round out my bias to the downside also 12 hour RSI breaking its rise in front of the downside before price action by the way. This is the value of looking at the momentum also which I do put a shit ton of weight on formations within those and what it what happens after we break the rising down of the downside we’re back below the exponential we’re testing you around the edge of the bash control zone and we might have a small bouncy bounce here but once we start closing RSA twelve our RSI into this region I would look for price action to fall through as well. Well we’ll save it for later anyways anyways. Okay cool so what else do I want to talk about while we’re here. Let’s actually go now to some fundamentals for this or sorry. No before we do that let’s talk about a little bit more directly towards the people who are saying that the lows are in because bitcoin can’t go lower bro. This is your hedge against the financial collapse and everyone who buys bitcoin is going to be rich by doing nothing and then you also just have to huddle it until you’re dead because that’s the way that. I think that’s the way that Hollars thinks like I’m some guy less. Last night in the Twitch chat and I don’t mean to pick on this person but I’m just curious what he was saying that I will Hoddle who’s asking Should I buy Bitcoin it’s like there’s never a good answer for that because I can’t know anything about you and your risk tolerance and your preferences and what you’re even trying to do with that. But I basically asked him like I basically said that and they said I’m just Look I’m not going to I’m not going to sell it I’ll hold it till the day that I died. Like what then what’s the point. I mean I don’t think the world’s gonna go to a bitcoin standard anytime soon. I think that bitcoin has its place in this world but you’re not going be able to use it if you just hold on to it. So I don’t know. I don’t know. Fair enough. Would you also be interested in silver. No just kidding. Anyways here’s the big thing with with this as well if we do start see the daily Stokes get tired here and start and start crawl back down that would be another good indication that we will come back down at low 5000 as well anyways. Looking at daily RSI what do we see more or less toppy looks like it once come back down a little bit but other than that I’m not seeing anything too obvious. More importantly let’s now or do I want to get on over to that. Mm hmm. Where do I want to take this next we want should we have even talked about the lower term time frames. You know let’s talk about the lower term time frames then we’ll talk about the long term stuff but before but now what we’ll say we’ll say that for the long term stuff. Okay cool. Let’s go back down the lower term timeframes for our really nothing’s changed here since yesterday is just we’re kind of playing this out a little bit more. It’s actually good orgy tax chart as sort of a more condensed. But as far as this goes right here we did hit our lowest point of this run we and we dig it out and we did get essentially a rejection of the upside as well. Or I was saying 60 400 we got six 30. Close enough is close enough. My only opinion is it’s just is that this is very low timeframe stuff and doesn’t really resolve the whole picture. Only the short term the medium term time frames actually do resolve some pretty big moves. And that would be below this blue box right here or above this area right here which will actually put in a blue box as well just to kind of to note that it is a little bit more important but also very relevant current price action because we’re quite far away. And then of course the ones that the this guy right here and this guy right here only lower term time frame stuff if we do break this one right here I do believe that we will see that full on move all the way down to meet this guy about fifty nine hundred fifty nine fifty ish region and probably another short term time frame bounce there. However I do think that that bounce and well we’ll get sold into overtime or at least likely and I’d look for a break of this region fifty nine fifty and then we can talk about you know more fun talk to the downside by the same token to the upside. This trend line right here we can actually move it down just a smidgen more in line with her last week high right here and that’s around 60. Let’s call it 63 50 ish region if Bitcoin does start to even just trade back above there again I would look for extension all the way up here to test this blue box territory but this blue box territory does not change anything or so it doesn’t really change anything for the for the higher term conference but it does for the medium term time frames and if we do actually break back about this region which is sixty seven fifty sixty eight hundred if you’re a little more conservative I would look for full and move all the way up here which would you consider there a Tesla topside trend line somewhere right around get rid of this one it’s not relevant either right now some are right around about seventy two hundred some three hundred ish region which is very very important in bitcoin still is a chance to do that to be fair bulls still could pull through here although I think that looking at the underline Mark dynamics I think it’s unlikely and we’ll look at probabilities and just second as well but if Bitcoin were to close above this region I just want to show that I would actually immediately get long term bullish once again the reason being because bitcoin would finally be back above the yellow 21 century average on the monthly which as of right now we are clean thousand dollars below more that a little bit more than a thousand dollars below its right now at about twenty three hundred. That is the importance of the 79 interest number from a monthly closing basis of which we get a monthly close in two days and while thousand dollar move in two days is actually not not that crazy for bitcoin but again it has to actually do it as long as we’re below there I am bearish long term and here’s the thing Bitcoin loved to play off that 21 on the on the monthly we can go all the way back down to the genesis chart on B Lux index and anytime that that that price action is above the twenty one were generally bullish especially as long as it has a positive slope a time that we’re below we’re generally bearish especially as it has a negative slope you know you can you can just eyeball this one out very very simple. This is something that I use as well when I was a professional market maker to judge if a stock was long term bearish or bullish and kind of like how to play it and how to angle it long term but for bitcoin it does seem to work pretty damn well as well and I would imagine that’s gonna work even better as more and more time transpires in this as it gets more and more mature anyways. Okay cool so now that we’ve got the lower term time frames either way that was fast is easy. Let’s actually look at momentum also just because actually are they actually are kind of painting a different picture. We do see for our Stokes technically up right now I don’t think that this holds. I actually do think that is going to come down sooner rather than later but that’s just my opinion it’s irrelevant you know. If it turns back around on the short term time frames I don’t. Like I said I don’t have too much of a strong pin on that. It’s only if it breaks you know these these levels right here sixty six three fifty the upside or a sixty one to the downside. Even on like a low time frame close is probably good enough. And then we could target those moves a little bit deeper into the blue box territories right here and right here respectfully speaking we do have an Aldi death cross so you know Bitcoin’s gonna be our damn floor. No just kidding silliness. But more importantly what what was the next point I was gonna get on. Yes. OK. So momentum also. So we looked at the for hour for our our side does say that we have some more downside here. We are met. We’re not making any evidence plays anytime soon as you can see. Let me get rid of this one because it’s not. I mean it is relevant but it’s not really for this time frame. You know this this looks weak to me. Let’s look at the three our three looks weak to me as well. We’ll be reading or could could create some divergence though to our day get some divergence but I believe that’s already played out. Yes indeed it did all the way from sixty six thousand side 6000 all the way up to sixty three point three in it all I move out of 6000 price points from a three hour total time frame that’s 5 percent move that’s incredible. It’s fucking incredible. This is fucking This is fucking I mean that’s a Saturday we have 5 percent we’ve just fucking insane day traders come on over to bitcoin this is amazing. Anyways hourly look looking at stocks we are rejecting the Bush trolls coming down you know this doth sense as well as getting in then two hours well we do have a nice trend line forming right here which is likely going to give a little bit of harassment price action but could also but but also doesn’t play that we might spend a little bit of time going sideways if we let the catch up anyways that gets lower time for us pretty damn well again to wrap it up this area right here for short term sixty one hundred if we break that to the downside I’ll be looking for a move back down here to like fifty nine horrible call it I do think that is likely to happen and we can look at probabilities and that can go and then we see 63 50 the upside that would initiate a move back up here towards sixty and 68 and then the critical areas really are these blue boxes with a break which is gonna initiate you know much more long term moves both to the upside and the downside respectfully speaking so let’s go see the probability of these but with respect to a stock of all to the percentile and the twelve hour has been so phenomenally accurately accurate recently I don’t know why this one’s more accurate than the daily but I have a theory but it doesn’t really matter because who gives a fuck what my theory is anyways more importantly we can’t see that the probabilities are very likely gonna be angled on the downside here but let’s let’s actually do it right in so we can look at exactly what the probability breaking sixty one as for the low term time frames on the next twelve hour total closure which is going to be 43 percent pretty damn high pretty fucking high to be quite exact actually into the upside we had on the very low time frames again very very very very low timeframe so not all that relevant. We’ll look at the medium term time frame. Critical markers in a second here but sad but look into the upside. Little bit significantly less actually about a little bit less than 29 percent which is still relatively high I mean anything above 25 percent is is considerable. It’s within the realm of possibility and remember like we’re looking at a continuous market here so if something that’s a 40 percent or 30 percent chance to play out and we are looking at you know 3 different candle closures then Well since we’re speaking you should be point out that move or Lethem makes sense for you know for 30 percent essentially a 30 percent probability anyways. Now now that we have those low term time frames technically speaking the probabilities are on the lows are intense in the downside. But remember that doesn’t matter for the medium term time frames only the short term. So let’s go and check out what it would be for the low time frames outside the medium term time frames that I’m gonna call it fifty nine hundred just because I want to be a little bit more on the conservative side here and that as you can see you can just eyeball it it’s right at the bottom side of the first aviation so it’s gonna be around a 60 percent chance this one gonna be a little bit a little bit more than that actually twenty one and a half percent chance of we actually do close this next twelve hour Delta below that crazy but below that critical area which I don’t think is happening on a daily though that’s where I think things could actually really angled down here as we do see the probability if you want to call these cones you might call them rings or whatever the fuck you want to call them angling down once again that actually does have about a thirty four and a quarter percent probability to happen on the next day we did a closure which can be the weekly closure which is really really important. And then of course we can look at the top side as well which should actually be pretty decently sized here. We’ll call it sixty eight hundred just because it’s a more conservative number and we did the same thing for the downside and less than less than an 80 percent chance happen here. So within the realm of possibility but not the highest probability outcome and and of course we go down to a twelve it’s going to be significantly less I imagine. Yeah. Three and a half percent on the next twelve our total closure in five hours and four minutes and five seconds. So yeah. Probabilities on the downside right now which is starting to line up more and more with my analysis and then more importantly especially on the 12 hour we do see that the that the rings are starting to line up with with the critical areas once again which I really really like we see the first aviation to the downside showing 59 20 ish region which is right in line with that and to the upside we see about 6 50 but that’s not the important one. It’s really this guy right here at the second celebration which is less than a two and a half percent chance single cited above there. So it is more like that we go to the downside right here from a. From a mathematical perspective as well. And we can also check out the underlying markdown or actually. Okay. So. So now that we’ve got all of the low term time frame stuff bullshit out of the way. What I really should say now let’s talk about high term time frame. So we spoke a little bit about the monthly I think that kind of. Well actually let’s do a little bit more of a deep dive on the monthly monthly Stokes rejected the Bush controls on two months ago in October or not two months ago but in October 2019 and looks like they are freshly minted to the downside again. It’s got you know it’s a long time from now until the end of the month closed till another two days. But as it is right now that’s not that’s not good. And then. And then monthly RSI here is concerning. I do believe as we did break below and we’re holding well below the exponential which you really do not like. And after one two three tests into the bearish control zone I fear that the next test might might leave us stuck in there for a while. So this can get much much much much much worse. If that were to happen of course that hasn’t happened just yet. And also we’re going to be doing some that we only do four times a year we’re gonna be closing the quarterly chart as well the triple monthly and the triple monthly actually is not that bad. And if the triple monthly close above the 10 simple which is which is actually 70 300 as well. This would be phenomenally bullish. So you know take you know take it as you will that you know that is in the car. So if Bitcoin were to pull a nice fake out here and move back about 20 300 massively massively fucking bullish special on a multi dollar closure and it is possible to be fair like the properties aren’t that far off it’s unlikely but it’s it’s not that far off I am no good. So the downside here I I’m bash and I am and I’m still holding a little bit of my short from two days ago it was like 67 69 maybe 60 next I like that number I don’t know. But we did we did it on Twitch. So what. Whatever it was then still got a little bit on that although I have covered it mostly was short put so I do like that I like to take profit with those with those daily options just glorious gloriously gloriously overpriced options options were created to be sold as the saying goes anyways that is secret information that I shouldn’t be saying. Okay cool. So what else shall we say. What should we look at here while we’re on the tired term time. Go check out the weekly we do have a weekly close coming in tonight. There is a couple of obvious things for the weekly close if the weekly closes below the two minute expansion and average that would be incredibly bearish. That is currently at fifty nine hundred. That also that number also very Jordan of course as at the bottom cites part of the rising channel though the weekly closed coming in at 8 p.m. Eastern Time I believe it is or at least or 0 0 UTC. That’s actually easier to say midnight UTC whatever the fuck that means. So if we did close below 50 900 that would be the most obvious thing for playing out more downside back down to the low five thousands and very likely below that over time. I mean should if we close the weekly below 55 50 the turn it’s simple that would be that would be pretty nasty as well but I don’t think about that I don’t think that we do that today. Also while we’re while we’re on here on the weekly if we do close anything like this this is going to look like a rejection of the yellow 21 and the green 55 cross cross that is current right now. Just take everything else off so that we can focus in on this baby. As as this cross careen right here and again if you if you are in the Today programme reference the EMEA model right now this is very very very very important as you might see this play out in front of your very eyes especially if we see this next to this next weekly closure anywhere below 6000 can be catastrophic. And and one was last and we saw this one happen. Oh it looks very similar to the death cross that we saw on the two day isn’t it. Now obviously this one’s gonna be a little more formidable as it is a higher type higher term time frame but similar results going all the way from sixty nine hundred to seven years to thirty one hundred ish region. We do have one example other than that in the history of Bitcoin back on over here pretty much the same thing as we saw on the two day as well so I do like that and they should naturally line up but some bites. But just showing that if you know bitcoin does confirm this is a local high. Basically this this this last weeks of price action than I would expect that to really have some major implications with price action to the downside once again. We also do see that weekly Stokes are nose diving right here and we got that we got a similar trend line governing our lows thus far going all the way back to February of 2019. Like literally more than a year ago on this trend line right here by the way so that that trend line helps head up this flow at 30 hundred this low right here at thirty three hundred. This I think there is another one right here before this three thousand dollar pump and another one right here before this 4000 dollar pump and then while you can see that that trend line is coming in much much lower on price action. So if we did if we if we are going to come back down and meet it and play at this cemetery on this market then we got some well we got we got a lot of time to play on the weekly. Not only that let’s go back down to the daily so the daily on Bitcoin. We’ve been we’ve been seeing this as well or we and we’ve been monitoring this as well and perhaps and perhaps perhaps other people out there as well. Not really focused on that one right now. Hey where are you going. Okay. Elsa’s wearing like full on sweatpants. Anyways anyways so bitcoin on a macro scale and even on a major scale has never had a major reversal without playing out bullish divergence on the daily. And I’m talking about reversal it you know four four four for macro either market cycle or just long term. And what do we see on this. Well do we have any bullish Chevron’s coming off a current low. No absolutely not. There is no bullish evidence at all whatsoever even on this major low right here which was not a mark like a low but was a major low we had two drives one to this one right here before this three thousand dollar pump one two three drives in works from the top as well. By the way on our last market cycle low in 2010 late 2018 One two three drives plenty plenty of examples right here in 2018 on you know know these failed rallies and then there’s several others in the past which you are free to look at yourself which I which I’ll just you know don’t trust me I just you know verify yourself and then yeah. Fair enough anyways. Okay cool. So with that said you know it you know is the case for a bitcoin bottom you know that strong here. I would say. No I don’t think that we’ve seen the bottom. If we go over here to some fundamentals good you’ve got some fundamentals baby already 30 minutes deep into this video holy shit this one’s a long one. This is the bitcoin MBP so out now I’ve not been using this one for a long time but there has been some reworks on this and I do believe that there are some relevant things to be looking at right now that are interesting. Now I don’t put that much faith in this and I don’t put that much weight on this. And I think that the creator’s results kind of speak for himself and that’s kind of like leave that where it is. But I do think that it’s interesting that we can’t look at some fundamentals here that would suggest that we have unlikely seen the low on the market cycle anytime that bitcoins made a mark cycle low or even like a major low. We see the end BTC will come up well below or least a little bit below the pink zone right here called in with this major low right here correlated with this with these with these actually these are not even market like lows. These are just major lows but you can see them all throughout the history of Bitcoin. Again both major lows and some market cycle lows mixed in there. However more recently in 30 100 we actually did not get below that region at at that last up to the downside at 4000. We didn’t get anywhere near that region. So is it likely that bitcoin has bottomed out here. No. From a fundamental perspective. Not really. And we can go back to the bitcoin view OP ratio how many times we looked at this too many times. But I’ll go over one more time as calm as we do see that we have the same signature that we’ve seen many times in the past many many times in the past before major mass of doom drops and you find that we get the purple and the pink and below where my cross currently is right now. Think of that as a nice regression and the purple leading the pink back down below there which is almost about to happen again as we do see the pink is a little bit above right now. Then we have played out 70 percent draw downs before. What I’m talking about is right here. You see this. You see this move right here that correlates with the last major move from about 10 3 all the way down to 6 5. You see the one you see the one before that right and over here happens from. Well basically the high of 20000 down to six. And then again right here from. Well about 6000 down to 3000. Sounds familiar. Right. Then we have another example right here in 2014 right here on this bull trap going from here to here another 70 percent move. And we have this one right here on this on this high right on this parabolic high going all the way from here to here. I don’t know the price numbers is off my head. Then again right here and again right here and you can again watch these 1 3 4 for yourselves. But more importantly we have you know perhaps the same signal in the making which can be confirmed as early as today. Now we can go back to those examples and kind of measure them out to see what that has produced in the past with regards to the bitcoin or the bitcoin view OP ratio which we had an example right here. That’s a 40 percent move to the downside. We had an example right here we know that this one’s like 50 percent. We had another example right here at the height. Twenty thousand bucks. Sixty nine percent. Nice great no timing for that was way back on over here on this bull trap. Do you remember right here going all the way down 77 percent. Kind of a little bit of an outlier them. Then we had this guy right here next low 66 percent. We had this guy right here last night and next low 77 percent. And then like a knife someone back on over here which we won’t even focus on because fuck it I don’t wanna piss off the moon boys too much although it’s it is kind of it is kind of fun. It’s also gonna be fun to piss off the doom boys too. I don’t necessarily think that bitcoin is going completely to the gutter. I think that I think that still can be relevant long term but this can take you know decades to play out really. If you are a believer in Bitcoin anyways. Okay. So we spoke about all that. Um what else what other pictures do we want to be painting. Do we have anything to be looking out on the biweekly perhaps. Hashtag gave for T.A.. Not really no not not really no. I’m not really getting too much from this chart. It’s just put back on all the major revamp just in case. Mm hmm. Not really. Not really. So fair enough. I’m wonder if we have any dual signals building up as well. Now we did. We did see a three hour dual cell signal play out though running over here which we spoke about on twitch a few days ago right here at the high at sixty seven so nice 700 on move top to bottom thus far. Not better than that to be of any signals building right now. Not really. No not really. Don’t think so I’m gonna take some patients for the next big one but some either a dual bison on the low or a or at least daily bullish divergence on a low and then maybe when I have a low but until then I’m overall bearish. I mean I’m overall bearish especially as long as Bitcoin’s below sixty eight hundred that loss at a local high read them. Do you have anything to look at the three day not. Songs are below the and it’s simple not good. We even we’ve been closed the last three day dollar below the 3 7 7 so it’s a little bit of a rejection as well. Again not you know not not the picture of health and fitness here. Okay cool. Let’s go check out we all. There’s nothing to update on traditional markets as they’re not trading today obviously. Let’s go check out a couple of the top sheet coins and then some this baby off because I want to get to gaming. Let’s see Mr. beta all looks like garbage. But Mrs. like Wayne ugly. Stellar. Okay. Not so stellar ripple ripple actually looks OK actually ripples probably the most bullish looking one of the bunch. And looks like con wants to take a leg up to 20 cents. And I’m not even and I’m not joking. But will it do that. Bitcoin comes down very unlikely and usually ripples one of the last ones to rally. If you remember in 2018 I think there’s a really good example of that. Yes. No no no. Tron. No. Let’s see. What about like Link. You know one of the one of the traditionally more strong ones now kind of losing its luster here as well as wants to swallow about 234. I am not a fan of it. If you could pop back above two to an hour bucks I’d be very bullish on it at least for a move back up to the prior high rounds like 384 bucks. But right now it looks like it’s falling the rest of the market not going to be an outlier at least at least that’s what it looks like right now. So yeah. As far as bitcoin goes we’ll wrap this bitch up right now. Overall very very short term time frames. Relevant areas at least for myself. This is not finished by my French advisor but sixty three fifty. The upside would initiate a move back up towards like 67 68 so pretty damn pretty damn tradable right there by the same token closing an even like an hourly Delta below like 60 100. I would look for an extension all the way down to 59 maybe 59 50 some like that. That’s where things actually can change. Obviously above 68 hundreds fled to the north side. I’d look for an extension to 73. That’s where the monthly picture starts to change around much much more and I get very very bullish. Below here and I want that to be no surprise you know right now. Obviously my bias is bearish my bias will change to bullish above here and in would moderately change above here actually as well above 68. Just because well we’re so close to the end of the month close that you know getting back into that region would more or less start to really look interesting. Anyways breaking this guy here to the downside 59 hydro call it you know I do think that there’s been that there’d be bounce along the way but ultimately speaking. Technically speaking there is a measurement pointing all the way down to about forty two hundred ish region anyways. That’s going to do it for right now this video’s already 40 minutes long. I want to wish you well once again on this and I stuck to your Sunday morning. I did not test to see if I’m recording or not Mike’s working. I don’t actually Oh shit. Is it working. I think it I think it is working but. But I’ll be signing off now. I’ll be signing twitch in a little bit and you need some food first and then and then it’s and then it’s game time watching some price action. Maybe we might even see some moves today which would be really really really really really cool. Anyways take care. And until next time.

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/bitcoin-april-2020-price-prediction-news-analysis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=bitcoin-last-time-this-happened-50-move-occurred-april-2020-price-prediction-news-analysis source https://cryptosharks1.tumblr.com/post/613944734206033920

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heatherrdavis1 · 5 years ago

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Bitcoin Last Time This Happened 50% Move Occurred! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

The last two times that we’ve seen this signal Bitcoin dropped a subsequent 57 percent. That. Me made my stance based on. My size. My son said. I made a mistake. That made a monster. Well well well welcome back. Crown’s credo cave waking up for a little bit an earlier morning after a massively long epically long twitch stream last night which had a shit ton of fun. I want to wish everyone well who joined on in because well and everyone else as well. Because why the fuck not. But more importantly it was a it was a ton of fun so I want a massive thing. Come on out. We’ll be doing to get to the hip perhaps even longer. So the new record is on the books anyways. We’ve got a lot to talk about and good on price action as we actually are seeing a little bit of continuation over the weekend. More importantly we have some things to point out here on our crown trading app which can be found at Epcot Crown tiny dot net. It’s free. Go take an account and in and take advantage of it anyways. The open interest has actually been steadily coming up as we’ve been watching it for the last few weeks or while mostly the last week and a half has really been related to each other as we’ve seen the open interest come down as Bitcoin moves up in price action. Now we’re seeing the open interest go up as bitcoin comes down in price action that can be tied the analysis very very soon. But before we get into that also do you want to check out the other online market dynamics on of which we do see Bitcoin dominance more or less steady here. Not really seeing any much any any major change there so it’s most likely ranged on the lows vs. bitcoin. Sorry Burstow she’s on top of that total market. More or less steady as well. And the crypto fear and greed index also pretty much the same from yesterday as well although we did go from an 8 to a 12. So people getting a little bit more optimistic. Bitcoin drops down another 300 dollars very unseen stuff but that said let’s get the actual into the actual analysis right now and address the opening statement. Now typically my opening statements or Michael or my titles are completely click bait. They have very little to do with the actual content of the videos but this one is going to be the focus right now as we do have the two day dildo death cross now fully initiated. This is hard or at least has been a signal of death and destruction in bitcoin land at least the past few times that we’ve gotten it. On a macro scale now while we are here and because it is a Sunday and we will be talking about long term price analysis let’s started off with with some higher timeframes as which we will start off with the two days. So this is the green 55 that is purple 200 that is an expansion would average death cross and it is more or less confirmed. Technically speaking you know you’d want to see one more one more solidified to date although in order to fully informally say that it’s you know confirmed confirmed confirmed but this is probably good enough for me and this is essentially my read on price action and I believe that this will hold up. I mean it’s inevitably going to hold up as these are fucking moving averages to be on with as long as Bitcoin especially remains but below 7000. And even as long as it’s below about 70 300 which is actually going to be a very important number going onwards and forwards here when we look at the month close anyways as we look at it right now all these major move numbers have very aggressive negative slope specially on the 55 and the 21 and we can see that there’s been a damn good indication between these two over the history of Bitcoin. So the last few times that we’ve actually seen this happen on in Bitcoin which is actually the only true numbers that we’ve seen it in Bitcoin. Ten years of history were back on over here in in what is a September 2018 bitcoin gets a death cross right here and then slowly but surely as we get ground down below the yellow one it’s mentioned on average in all of the vaults now switch on their cell programs. That is what catalyzed this move all the way from about 65 50 high to a 52 and a quarter percent low at around thirty one ish region about what is this last year or two years ago now. Now that’s last year. Holy shit man this is fucking crazy how fast time flies. It actually is really really scary. Anyways we go back down to the time before that that we actually got this in the land of opportunity we do see that’s Bitcoin got the death cross back on over here quite similar after about a year long town trend putting it in descending triangle on the lows to September 2014 it looks like outside. September October 2014. And we get the death cross right over here. Next time gets rejected. Then it gets ground down below the yellow 21 infantrymen damage as well. Very similar. And until we put in the next major low on a massive capitulation volume spike we move about a 64 percent move from top to bottom from that last high rejection to the next low. Now before that we don’t really have any other examples because well Bitcoin hasn’t been around for all that long about a little bit over 10 years now but more importantly we have our third and potentially potentially trend forming signal of this as to time doesn’t necessarily make a trend three times does but we can look at some other exemplary indicators that are going to round at this analysis a little bit better anyways as it stands right now. Bitcoin does have the death cross more or less confirmed. I know technically you’d want to see one more one you know one more double solidified but this is probably good enough for me as I did say and just playing with numbers here as I do think that that’s fun to do you know plant a plant plant some number games we can shave off you know an average of that price that we’ve seen before and just check out where bitcoin may find itself as if we do shave off about 50 whereas let’s put it that actually puts us that back down around here and our 3000 or low or thirty three hundred although if you wanna get exact with that numbers now that that number actually is quite interesting because we do go over here to see armies. Well for all the gap boys that talk about eleven thousand five hundred and more recently eighty seven hundred right here and we will have certainly another one open up today as well assuming that big one doesn’t have a five minute rally to the upside before C.M. is open at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time by the way we just had daylight savings here in Finland and I fucking hate this is the worst. It’s literally the worst day of the year every fucking year. I absolutely despise it why take away why take away an hour of sleep. I don’t know but that’s just what we do as humans I suppose. Anyways I just lost my train of thought was I about say yes. So as far as CND go we do see that there’s going to be we’re going to open up on another gap on it over here. But the gap that people don’t actually really like to talk about too often or at least the people who perhaps you know live with their parents and do cryptocurrency analysis and talk about inflation and hyper inflation without doing any sort of fucking relativity calculations which is what makes that even fucking relevant to begin with. Anyway sorry. We do see that there actually is a little bit of a gap action back down around here. Now is this a major one. No I don’t really think so and to be quite honest with you I don’t think that it actually even is a gap but it is funny that people seem to really focus on the ones that point north rather than ones that point south. I traded well I’ve traded our so I started out as professional market maker authorized trader and we well in traditional markets you have gaps all the time because there’s an open and only trade for 6 1/2 hours a day as you know which is quite different than this right here which you know CNE futures trade like five days a week for but you know most the trading day. But you still get gaps on them anyways. My point is is that you know in traditional markets gaps are certainly relevant and certainly very much very much viable trading strategy. But there’s a very specific way to be doing it and it’s really not relevant until you actually get there with price action you don’t just look at it as like a fucking vacuum but it is interesting that we’re gonna show a few things that kind of line up but this area down around here. So we’ll keep that in the back of our minds eye and in all and as always for the people in the TIA program I want to be following up on that. You do have a bonus module that I uploaded maybe a few months ago away in the back of the program. Holy shit man. Programs like literally more than 2 x long of what I of what I initially debuted at with but it’s like it’s like my life’s work now is what it is. And and that goes over Gap Theory and then grab trading strategies anyways so as we focus in on what’s going on read it over here. Back on our back on our bitcoin charts I want to now put the I want to now put to D what’s it called the spotlight on what do what do we want take this next because there’s so many ways take this. Well let’s let’s let’s first just talk about the daily The Daily divergences which I believe are present on semi’s. Actually no actually yes they are. So we do have hit bearish divergence between this point at about 80 150 and this local high that we’re kind of confirming right now are in the process of confirming massive doubling between this point at this point right here. I do like that. I think it’s one of more pronounced actually on spot price action between this point and this point in fact do we even make two drops of governance. No we did not but we get a little bit of perhaps regular back right around here. Actually we did although albeit not all that strong anyways more importantly as bitcoin does start as Bitcoin has kind of been rise up this whole way Remember remember the things that we’ve been looking at with the open interest initially coming down ever since Bitcoin had that’s Diablo about 4000 bucks right and over here then volume started tailing off and price section was rising what does that tell you that tells you that the rise in price action was coming from Schwartz closing which just means that bears are taking profit and now it looks like because we see open interest start to steadily rise again we’ve actually seen them add one hundred million one hundred million contract position since since like you know about a week ago in price action now coming down. That does tell me that side that does give us a good insight that likely what the big market movers are doing is that they are adding book back on to short positions. So people aren’t you know I mean know what you’d expect in bitcoin actually was going to have a reversal here is you would have expected that we would have actually stepped back above about 7000 bucks and held above there on a daily with open interest rising as well. That was exactly the opposite of what happened thus far does mean that it can’t change. But I would say with the time with the time ticking down until the monthly close that is becoming a shorter and shorter window because we do have about two days left. Yeah two days left in the trading in the trading month. And so that’s going to make us really consider the monthly look which will get into you. Well let’s let’s get into it after after looking at momentum is on the daily so daily stocks have come up all the way all the way to the bullish control zone and still price action is more or less caught in a range also within the context of a rising channel bear flag. So we see a redistribution pattern this guy running over here while volumes tailing off so that confirms a pattern. While volatility has been tailing off the whole way through which also confirms a pattern which by the way this same volatility read that we’ve been speaking about for the last few days has actually catalyzed as we showed before about one thousand fifteen hundred dollar boost plus in the past pretty pretty damn nice we’ll be seeing contraction going all the way from March 13th at the major low to where we are right now and now starting to spike back up and maintain above the moving average on it which tells us that we’re probably looking at a move relatively soon sooner rather than later most likely in the last time that we’ve had you know readings like this were well dry. What should should I tell you. Well I should tell you back on over here at the last height about ten thousand five hundred you see it’s very very low after that spike up and then boom massive move from 10000 down to. I mean you could say down to 70 77. You could say all the way to our low. That’s a little bit too aggressive though time before that was coming off our 14000 da high right and over here gets extremely low right and after that breaks 10 3 all the way down to you know fast all the way down to like Sunny five hundred then you know a little bit more for another thousand bucks. But I think that’s asking for a little bit too much there. And then of course you know we have the same thing going on in 2018 right and over here where we get extremely low. I can’t I’m not going to zero in on it too much that I won’t spend too much time on this because we’ve already done it before. But of course as you do see we do see a major spike up as price action falsity to the downside. So those things the underlying market dynamics matching up with the well which with just generic technicals right here as well which is which I. Which is what I typically do like as a trader. So we’re caught in a rising channel which is the redistribution pattern. We see volume tailing off. We see open interest going up as price actually goes down. By the way. And we see volatility at a at a state wide basically at a point that we are very likely to see a major inflection point on the market meaning that we have a ton of juice built up for a big bad move relatively soon. I don’t think that doing time analysis is is that all worthwhile or at least I don’t think that it can be consistently done but volatility is the only way that we can really get an idea of what’s more likely cause volatility volatility like this is probably the most dependable indicator in the sense that you can always count on volatility to expand and contract. It’s a mean reverting indicator and that’s just the way that’s designed and that’s the beauty of mathematics and that is incredibly useful as a trader in this market. So what does that mean. Well it as you know as we do have a rising channel going on right here you could even call it a bear flag and we will talk about Bear Flag targets after this although I don’t think that it’s actually a bear flag. But but but a rising channels measure move is just as is is pretty nasty as well. We do see that the bottom side support of this which is currently coming in around 59 50 ish region would would would constitute our lower support trendline of this rise channel just like this blue box over here at around 73 hundred which is going to be very very important number by the way for the monthly governs our topside resistance anyways if we break below this blue box right here that will initiate a major move technically all the way down to about 41 50 ish region down around here 40 to under this region in this blue box. Technically speaking on lower on lower lows we closed down them which actually will give the higher timeframes a chance to get divergence which means that we could bottom out or least historically speaking that’s what we look for bitcoin to bottom out. Not only that but while we are here on the floor out of the four hour 21 century average is looking across the downs of the 55 while need to see it kind of like a rolling over it here anyways. Anyways what what tip was I just on just there. Yes. OK cool so while we do have this up. We do have you know we do have a way for it now. Do you think that there would be bounced along the way and you know who’s who knows how long this takes to play out. Who fucking cares. Doesn’t matter. I just go level by level. Of course if we do break fifty nine fifty to the downside I would look for moved down to about fifty five hundred ish region which also can be the weekly taunted simple which will look out a little bit later then after that. I do think that bitcoin would have another short term time frame bounce somewhere around 51 50 and then probably rollover its way all the way down here to its final destination. You know assuming that this all works out but we’re making massive assumptions right now. I just want to show that all these things work together and when we look at our higher term time frame signals right now it does suggest that we do have some downside. Also while we are here on our medium term time frames let’s go over to the 12 hour twelve hour stocks still still plenty down and still kind of call in this range that we’ve been working on scientists already have that trend on in right there. But remember that trend line right there that that’s the one that made me really consider that 60 800 ish region as a nice area of distribution and a local top which did play out. I’m not saying that sound arrogant but I am saying that to follow up for the people who’ve been on this channel for quite some time and you know sometimes sometimes these signals do take a little bit of time but if you know once you’ve seen them play out a few times then you trust OK or maybe not trust is the right word but you see how that interaction is likely to play out and you don’t get you don’t get you don’t get thrown off when you’re trading a 12 hour and then you get under the fucking 30 minute chart and start getting scared about every last little you know momentum also to turn up there or divergence play there. It’s irrelevant it’s doesn’t matter it’s bullshit but more importantly on the twelve hour right here we have some very nice trend lines at a bitcoin been playing off of for the last couple months. And when you find some that works. What about one of the things that my mentor always said and I used to fucking hate it but it is so damn true the more and more that I meditate on it and that is when you fight when it comes to tentacle announced and you find some that works just stick with that until it stops working and then find something new and you’re just kind of going off of what the next operators is you know is running with and kind of finding out whatever their edges anyways. Right now we do have a pretty damn good one as Bitcoin has been getting rejected by this trend line ever since February 9th when Bitcoin was quite literally all the way over here at about 10000 bucks a little bit north of 10000 bucks so got that high right there. Then that high is next. Our. The next guy that got that guy rejected on this trend line and was back on over here in March right here before the inevitable doom dropped from about 8000 down to forty five hundred if you want to call it that. And then once again hitting it hitting that trend line right here more recently at 67 50 ish region. Now I do believe that this probably is more more more time to play out. But I also believe that we’re kind of we’re you know we’re going to bounce off this trend line down around here and we’re going to be caught into a nice consolidation period and then have a resolution way may maybe in like mayor or some like that. What is next month is March April May 4th. That’s that’s too far away. Well fair enough. This market probably gets slowed down. It has been quite volatile recently and well after volatile expands and it contracts anyways this trend line coming down around the edge of the bull sorry edge of the bearish control zone is quite nice as well as we typically do see some counter time pressure there and also connected with some very important lows coming in from our bouncy bounce right here from about eighty five to nine five thousand dollar move then. But then right after that we got this little side note not that bounce right there. This this this one right here from 39 all the way to 58. Jesus Christ. 2004 move. Then again right after that right here around 45 all the way up to I mean really 66 and then now we are kind of caught in a range. So I do like that three touches does make a trend. And we have three on both sides and I really really really really really like that. Anyways I would suggest that we do have momentum to begin to the downside here and it does help me kind of round out my bias to the downside also 12 hour RSI breaking its rise in front of the downside before price action by the way. This is the value of looking at the momentum also which I do put a shit ton of weight on formations within those and what it what happens after we break the rising down of the downside we’re back below the exponential we’re testing you around the edge of the bash control zone and we might have a small bouncy bounce here but once we start closing RSA twelve our RSI into this region I would look for price action to fall through as well. Well we’ll save it for later anyways anyways. Okay cool so what else do I want to talk about while we’re here. Let’s actually go now to some fundamentals for this or sorry. No before we do that let’s talk about a little bit more directly towards the people who are saying that the lows are in because bitcoin can’t go lower bro. This is your hedge against the financial collapse and everyone who buys bitcoin is going to be rich by doing nothing and then you also just have to huddle it until you’re dead because that’s the way that. I think that’s the way that Hollars thinks like I’m some guy less. Last night in the Twitch chat and I don’t mean to pick on this person but I’m just curious what he was saying that I will Hoddle who’s asking Should I buy Bitcoin it’s like there’s never a good answer for that because I can’t know anything about you and your risk tolerance and your preferences and what you’re even trying to do with that. But I basically asked him like I basically said that and they said I’m just Look I’m not going to I’m not going to sell it I’ll hold it till the day that I died. Like what then what’s the point. I mean I don’t think the world’s gonna go to a bitcoin standard anytime soon. I think that bitcoin has its place in this world but you’re not going be able to use it if you just hold on to it. So I don’t know. I don’t know. Fair enough. Would you also be interested in silver. No just kidding. Anyways here’s the big thing with with this as well if we do start see the daily Stokes get tired here and start and start crawl back down that would be another good indication that we will come back down at low 5000 as well anyways. Looking at daily RSI what do we see more or less toppy looks like it once come back down a little bit but other than that I’m not seeing anything too obvious. More importantly let’s now or do I want to get on over to that. Mm hmm. Where do I want to take this next we want should we have even talked about the lower term time frames. You know let’s talk about the lower term time frames then we’ll talk about the long term stuff but before but now what we’ll say we’ll say that for the long term stuff. Okay cool. Let’s go back down the lower term timeframes for our really nothing’s changed here since yesterday is just we’re kind of playing this out a little bit more. It’s actually good orgy tax chart as sort of a more condensed. But as far as this goes right here we did hit our lowest point of this run we and we dig it out and we did get essentially a rejection of the upside as well. Or I was saying 60 400 we got six 30. Close enough is close enough. My only opinion is it’s just is that this is very low timeframe stuff and doesn’t really resolve the whole picture. Only the short term the medium term time frames actually do resolve some pretty big moves. And that would be below this blue box right here or above this area right here which will actually put in a blue box as well just to kind of to note that it is a little bit more important but also very relevant current price action because we’re quite far away. And then of course the ones that the this guy right here and this guy right here only lower term time frame stuff if we do break this one right here I do believe that we will see that full on move all the way down to meet this guy about fifty nine hundred fifty nine fifty ish region and probably another short term time frame bounce there. However I do think that that bounce and well we’ll get sold into overtime or at least likely and I’d look for a break of this region fifty nine fifty and then we can talk about you know more fun talk to the downside by the same token to the upside. This trend line right here we can actually move it down just a smidgen more in line with her last week high right here and that’s around 60. Let’s call it 63 50 ish region if Bitcoin does start to even just trade back above there again I would look for extension all the way up here to test this blue box territory but this blue box territory does not change anything or so it doesn’t really change anything for the for the higher term conference but it does for the medium term time frames and if we do actually break back about this region which is sixty seven fifty sixty eight hundred if you’re a little more conservative I would look for full and move all the way up here which would you consider there a Tesla topside trend line somewhere right around get rid of this one it’s not relevant either right now some are right around about seventy two hundred some three hundred ish region which is very very important in bitcoin still is a chance to do that to be fair bulls still could pull through here although I think that looking at the underline Mark dynamics I think it’s unlikely and we’ll look at probabilities and just second as well but if Bitcoin were to close above this region I just want to show that I would actually immediately get long term bullish once again the reason being because bitcoin would finally be back above the yellow 21 century average on the monthly which as of right now we are clean thousand dollars below more that a little bit more than a thousand dollars below its right now at about twenty three hundred. That is the importance of the 79 interest number from a monthly closing basis of which we get a monthly close in two days and while thousand dollar move in two days is actually not not that crazy for bitcoin but again it has to actually do it as long as we’re below there I am bearish long term and here’s the thing Bitcoin loved to play off that 21 on the on the monthly we can go all the way back down to the genesis chart on B Lux index and anytime that that that price action is above the twenty one were generally bullish especially as long as it has a positive slope a time that we’re below we’re generally bearish especially as it has a negative slope you know you can you can just eyeball this one out very very simple. This is something that I use as well when I was a professional market maker to judge if a stock was long term bearish or bullish and kind of like how to play it and how to angle it long term but for bitcoin it does seem to work pretty damn well as well and I would imagine that’s gonna work even better as more and more time transpires in this as it gets more and more mature anyways. Okay cool so now that we’ve got the lower term time frames either way that was fast is easy. Let’s actually look at momentum also just because actually are they actually are kind of painting a different picture. We do see for our Stokes technically up right now I don’t think that this holds. I actually do think that is going to come down sooner rather than later but that’s just my opinion it’s irrelevant you know. If it turns back around on the short term time frames I don’t. Like I said I don’t have too much of a strong pin on that. It’s only if it breaks you know these these levels right here sixty six three fifty the upside or a sixty one to the downside. Even on like a low time frame close is probably good enough. And then we could target those moves a little bit deeper into the blue box territories right here and right here respectfully speaking we do have an Aldi death cross so you know Bitcoin’s gonna be our damn floor. No just kidding silliness. But more importantly what what was the next point I was gonna get on. Yes. OK. So momentum also. So we looked at the for hour for our our side does say that we have some more downside here. We are met. We’re not making any evidence plays anytime soon as you can see. Let me get rid of this one because it’s not. I mean it is relevant but it’s not really for this time frame. You know this this looks weak to me. Let’s look at the three our three looks weak to me as well. We’ll be reading or could could create some divergence though to our day get some divergence but I believe that’s already played out. Yes indeed it did all the way from sixty six thousand side 6000 all the way up to sixty three point three in it all I move out of 6000 price points from a three hour total time frame that’s 5 percent move that’s incredible. It’s fucking incredible. This is fucking This is fucking I mean that’s a Saturday we have 5 percent we’ve just fucking insane day traders come on over to bitcoin this is amazing. Anyways hourly look looking at stocks we are rejecting the Bush trolls coming down you know this doth sense as well as getting in then two hours well we do have a nice trend line forming right here which is likely going to give a little bit of harassment price action but could also but but also doesn’t play that we might spend a little bit of time going sideways if we let the catch up anyways that gets lower time for us pretty damn well again to wrap it up this area right here for short term sixty one hundred if we break that to the downside I’ll be looking for a move back down here to like fifty nine horrible call it I do think that is likely to happen and we can look at probabilities and that can go and then we see 63 50 the upside that would initiate a move back up here towards sixty and 68 and then the critical areas really are these blue boxes with a break which is gonna initiate you know much more long term moves both to the upside and the downside respectfully speaking so let’s go see the probability of these but with respect to a stock of all to the percentile and the twelve hour has been so phenomenally accurately accurate recently I don’t know why this one’s more accurate than the daily but I have a theory but it doesn’t really matter because who gives a fuck what my theory is anyways more importantly we can’t see that the probabilities are very likely gonna be angled on the downside here but let’s let’s actually do it right in so we can look at exactly what the probability breaking sixty one as for the low term time frames on the next twelve hour total closure which is going to be 43 percent pretty damn high pretty fucking high to be quite exact actually into the upside we had on the very low time frames again very very very very low timeframe so not all that relevant. We’ll look at the medium term time frame. Critical markers in a second here but sad but look into the upside. Little bit significantly less actually about a little bit less than 29 percent which is still relatively high I mean anything above 25 percent is is considerable. It’s within the realm of possibility and remember like we’re looking at a continuous market here so if something that’s a 40 percent or 30 percent chance to play out and we are looking at you know 3 different candle closures then Well since we’re speaking you should be point out that move or Lethem makes sense for you know for 30 percent essentially a 30 percent probability anyways. Now now that we have those low term time frames technically speaking the probabilities are on the lows are intense in the downside. But remember that doesn’t matter for the medium term time frames only the short term. So let’s go and check out what it would be for the low time frames outside the medium term time frames that I’m gonna call it fifty nine hundred just because I want to be a little bit more on the conservative side here and that as you can see you can just eyeball it it’s right at the bottom side of the first aviation so it’s gonna be around a 60 percent chance this one gonna be a little bit a little bit more than that actually twenty one and a half percent chance of we actually do close this next twelve hour Delta below that crazy but below that critical area which I don’t think is happening on a daily though that’s where I think things could actually really angled down here as we do see the probability if you want to call these cones you might call them rings or whatever the fuck you want to call them angling down once again that actually does have about a thirty four and a quarter percent probability to happen on the next day we did a closure which can be the weekly closure which is really really important. And then of course we can look at the top side as well which should actually be pretty decently sized here. We’ll call it sixty eight hundred just because it’s a more conservative number and we did the same thing for the downside and less than less than an 80 percent chance happen here. So within the realm of possibility but not the highest probability outcome and and of course we go down to a twelve it’s going to be significantly less I imagine. Yeah. Three and a half percent on the next twelve our total closure in five hours and four minutes and five seconds. So yeah. Probabilities on the downside right now which is starting to line up more and more with my analysis and then more importantly especially on the 12 hour we do see that the that the rings are starting to line up with with the critical areas once again which I really really like we see the first aviation to the downside showing 59 20 ish region which is right in line with that and to the upside we see about 6 50 but that’s not the important one. It’s really this guy right here at the second celebration which is less than a two and a half percent chance single cited above there. So it is more like that we go to the downside right here from a. From a mathematical perspective as well. And we can also check out the underlying markdown or actually. Okay. So. So now that we’ve got all of the low term time frame stuff bullshit out of the way. What I really should say now let’s talk about high term time frame. So we spoke a little bit about the monthly I think that kind of. Well actually let’s do a little bit more of a deep dive on the monthly monthly Stokes rejected the Bush controls on two months ago in October or not two months ago but in October 2019 and looks like they are freshly minted to the downside again. It’s got you know it’s a long time from now until the end of the month closed till another two days. But as it is right now that’s not that’s not good. And then. And then monthly RSI here is concerning. I do believe as we did break below and we’re holding well below the exponential which you really do not like. And after one two three tests into the bearish control zone I fear that the next test might might leave us stuck in there for a while. So this can get much much much much much worse. If that were to happen of course that hasn’t happened just yet. And also we’re going to be doing some that we only do four times a year we’re gonna be closing the quarterly chart as well the triple monthly and the triple monthly actually is not that bad. And if the triple monthly close above the 10 simple which is which is actually 70 300 as well. This would be phenomenally bullish. So you know take you know take it as you will that you know that is in the car. So if Bitcoin were to pull a nice fake out here and move back about 20 300 massively massively fucking bullish special on a multi dollar closure and it is possible to be fair like the properties aren’t that far off it’s unlikely but it’s it’s not that far off I am no good. So the downside here I I’m bash and I am and I’m still holding a little bit of my short from two days ago it was like 67 69 maybe 60 next I like that number I don’t know. But we did we did it on Twitch. So what. Whatever it was then still got a little bit on that although I have covered it mostly was short put so I do like that I like to take profit with those with those daily options just glorious gloriously gloriously overpriced options options were created to be sold as the saying goes anyways that is secret information that I shouldn’t be saying. Okay cool. So what else shall we say. What should we look at here while we’re on the tired term time. Go check out the weekly we do have a weekly close coming in tonight. There is a couple of obvious things for the weekly close if the weekly closes below the two minute expansion and average that would be incredibly bearish. That is currently at fifty nine hundred. That also that number also very Jordan of course as at the bottom cites part of the rising channel though the weekly closed coming in at 8 p.m. Eastern Time I believe it is or at least or 0 0 UTC. That’s actually easier to say midnight UTC whatever the fuck that means. So if we did close below 50 900 that would be the most obvious thing for playing out more downside back down to the low five thousands and very likely below that over time. I mean should if we close the weekly below 55 50 the turn it’s simple that would be that would be pretty nasty as well but I don’t think about that I don’t think that we do that today. Also while we’re while we’re on here on the weekly if we do close anything like this this is going to look like a rejection of the yellow 21 and the green 55 cross cross that is current right now. Just take everything else off so that we can focus in on this baby. As as this cross careen right here and again if you if you are in the Today programme reference the EMEA model right now this is very very very very important as you might see this play out in front of your very eyes especially if we see this next to this next weekly closure anywhere below 6000 can be catastrophic. And and one was last and we saw this one happen. Oh it looks very similar to the death cross that we saw on the two day isn’t it. Now obviously this one’s gonna be a little more formidable as it is a higher type higher term time frame but similar results going all the way from sixty nine hundred to seven years to thirty one hundred ish region. We do have one example other than that in the history of Bitcoin back on over here pretty much the same thing as we saw on the two day as well so I do like that and they should naturally line up but some bites. But just showing that if you know bitcoin does confirm this is a local high. Basically this this this last weeks of price action than I would expect that to really have some major implications with price action to the downside once again. We also do see that weekly Stokes are nose diving right here and we got that we got a similar trend line governing our lows thus far going all the way back to February of 2019. Like literally more than a year ago on this trend line right here by the way so that that trend line helps head up this flow at 30 hundred this low right here at thirty three hundred. This I think there is another one right here before this three thousand dollar pump and another one right here before this 4000 dollar pump and then while you can see that that trend line is coming in much much lower on price action. So if we did if we if we are going to come back down and meet it and play at this cemetery on this market then we got some well we got we got a lot of time to play on the weekly. Not only that let’s go back down to the daily so the daily on Bitcoin. We’ve been we’ve been seeing this as well or we and we’ve been monitoring this as well and perhaps and perhaps perhaps other people out there as well. Not really focused on that one right now. Hey where are you going. Okay. Elsa’s wearing like full on sweatpants. Anyways anyways so bitcoin on a macro scale and even on a major scale has never had a major reversal without playing out bullish divergence on the daily. And I’m talking about reversal it you know four four four for macro either market cycle or just long term. And what do we see on this. Well do we have any bullish Chevron’s coming off a current low. No absolutely not. There is no bullish evidence at all whatsoever even on this major low right here which was not a mark like a low but was a major low we had two drives one to this one right here before this three thousand dollar pump one two three drives in works from the top as well. By the way on our last market cycle low in 2010 late 2018 One two three drives plenty plenty of examples right here in 2018 on you know know these failed rallies and then there’s several others in the past which you are free to look at yourself which I which I’ll just you know don’t trust me I just you know verify yourself and then yeah. Fair enough anyways. Okay cool. So with that said you know it you know is the case for a bitcoin bottom you know that strong here. I would say. No I don’t think that we’ve seen the bottom. If we go over here to some fundamentals good you’ve got some fundamentals baby already 30 minutes deep into this video holy shit this one’s a long one. This is the bitcoin MBP so out now I’ve not been using this one for a long time but there has been some reworks on this and I do believe that there are some relevant things to be looking at right now that are interesting. Now I don’t put that much faith in this and I don’t put that much weight on this. And I think that the creator’s results kind of speak for himself and that’s kind of like leave that where it is. But I do think that it’s interesting that we can’t look at some fundamentals here that would suggest that we have unlikely seen the low on the market cycle anytime that bitcoins made a mark cycle low or even like a major low. We see the end BTC will come up well below or least a little bit below the pink zone right here called in with this major low right here correlated with this with these with these actually these are not even market like lows. These are just major lows but you can see them all throughout the history of Bitcoin. Again both major lows and some market cycle lows mixed in there. However more recently in 30 100 we actually did not get below that region at at that last up to the downside at 4000. We didn’t get anywhere near that region. So is it likely that bitcoin has bottomed out here. No. From a fundamental perspective. Not really. And we can go back to the bitcoin view OP ratio how many times we looked at this too many times. But I’ll go over one more time as calm as we do see that we have the same signature that we’ve seen many times in the past many many times in the past before major mass of doom drops and you find that we get the purple and the pink and below where my cross currently is right now. Think of that as a nice regression and the purple leading the pink back down below there which is almost about to happen again as we do see the pink is a little bit above right now. Then we have played out 70 percent draw downs before. What I’m talking about is right here. You see this. You see this move right here that correlates with the last major move from about 10 3 all the way down to 6 5. You see the one you see the one before that right and over here happens from. Well basically the high of 20000 down to six. And then again right here from. Well about 6000 down to 3000. Sounds familiar. Right. Then we have another example right here in 2014 right here on this bull trap going from here to here another 70 percent move. And we have this one right here on this on this high right on this parabolic high going all the way from here to here. I don’t know the price numbers is off my head. Then again right here and again right here and you can again watch these 1 3 4 for yourselves. But more importantly we have you know perhaps the same signal in the making which can be confirmed as early as today. Now we can go back to those examples and kind of measure them out to see what that has produced in the past with regards to the bitcoin or the bitcoin view OP ratio which we had an example right here. That’s a 40 percent move to the downside. We had an example right here we know that this one’s like 50 percent. We had another example right here at the height. Twenty thousand bucks. Sixty nine percent. Nice great no timing for that was way back on over here on this bull trap. Do you remember right here going all the way down 77 percent. Kind of a little bit of an outlier them. Then we had this guy right here next low 66 percent. We had this guy right here last night and next low 77 percent. And then like a knife someone back on over here which we won’t even focus on because fuck it I don’t wanna piss off the moon boys too much although it’s it is kind of it is kind of fun. It’s also gonna be fun to piss off the doom boys too. I don’t necessarily think that bitcoin is going completely to the gutter. I think that I think that still can be relevant long term but this can take you know decades to play out really. If you are a believer in Bitcoin anyways. Okay. So we spoke about all that. Um what else what other pictures do we want to be painting. Do we have anything to be looking out on the biweekly perhaps. Hashtag gave for T.A.. Not really no not not really no. I’m not really getting too much from this chart. It’s just put back on all the major revamp just in case. Mm hmm. Not really. Not really. So fair enough. I’m wonder if we have any dual signals building up as well. Now we did. We did see a three hour dual cell signal play out though running over here which we spoke about on twitch a few days ago right here at the high at sixty seven so nice 700 on move top to bottom thus far. Not better than that to be of any signals building right now. Not really. No not really. Don’t think so I’m gonna take some patients for the next big one but some either a dual bison on the low or a or at least daily bullish divergence on a low and then maybe when I have a low but until then I’m overall bearish. I mean I’m overall bearish especially as long as Bitcoin’s below sixty eight hundred that loss at a local high read them. Do you have anything to look at the three day not. Songs are below the and it’s simple not good. We even we’ve been closed the last three day dollar below the 3 7 7 so it’s a little bit of a rejection as well. Again not you know not not the picture of health and fitness here. Okay cool. Let’s go check out we all. There’s nothing to update on traditional markets as they’re not trading today obviously. Let’s go check out a couple of the top sheet coins and then some this baby off because I want to get to gaming. Let’s see Mr. beta all looks like garbage. But Mrs. like Wayne ugly. Stellar. Okay. Not so stellar ripple ripple actually looks OK actually ripples probably the most bullish looking one of the bunch. And looks like con wants to take a leg up to 20 cents. And I’m not even and I’m not joking. But will it do that. Bitcoin comes down very unlikely and usually ripples one of the last ones to rally. If you remember in 2018 I think there’s a really good example of that. Yes. No no no. Tron. No. Let’s see. What about like Link. You know one of the one of the traditionally more strong ones now kind of losing its luster here as well as wants to swallow about 234. I am not a fan of it. If you could pop back above two to an hour bucks I’d be very bullish on it at least for a move back up to the prior high rounds like 384 bucks. But right now it looks like it’s falling the rest of the market not going to be an outlier at least at least that’s what it looks like right now. So yeah. As far as bitcoin goes we’ll wrap this bitch up right now. Overall very very short term time frames. Relevant areas at least for myself. This is not finished by my French advisor but sixty three fifty. The upside would initiate a move back up towards like 67 68 so pretty damn pretty damn tradable right there by the same token closing an even like an hourly Delta below like 60 100. I would look for an extension all the way down to 59 maybe 59 50 some like that. That’s where things actually can change. Obviously above 68 hundreds fled to the north side. I’d look for an extension to 73. That’s where the monthly picture starts to change around much much more and I get very very bullish. Below here and I want that to be no surprise you know right now. Obviously my bias is bearish my bias will change to bullish above here and in would moderately change above here actually as well above 68. Just because well we’re so close to the end of the month close that you know getting back into that region would more or less start to really look interesting. Anyways breaking this guy here to the downside 59 hydro call it you know I do think that there’s been that there’d be bounce along the way but ultimately speaking. Technically speaking there is a measurement pointing all the way down to about forty two hundred ish region anyways. That’s going to do it for right now this video’s already 40 minutes long. I want to wish you well once again on this and I stuck to your Sunday morning. I did not test to see if I’m recording or not Mike’s working. I don’t actually Oh shit. Is it working. I think it I think it is working but. But I’ll be signing off now. I’ll be signing twitch in a little bit and you need some food first and then and then it’s and then it’s game time watching some price action. Maybe we might even see some moves today which would be really really really really really cool. Anyways take care. And until next time.

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cryptosharks1 · 5 years ago

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Bitcoin Last Time This Happened 50%+ Move Occurred! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

The last two times that we’ve seen this signal Bitcoin dropped a subsequent 57 percent. That. Me made my stance based on. My size. My son said. I made a mistake. That made a monster. Well well well welcome back. Crown’s credo cave waking up for a little bit an earlier morning after a massively long epically long twitch stream last night which had a shit ton of fun. I want to wish everyone well who joined on in because well and everyone else as well. Because why the fuck not. But more importantly it was a it was a ton of fun so I want a massive thing. Come on out. We’ll be doing to get to the hip perhaps even longer. So the new record is on the books anyways. We’ve got a lot to talk about and good on price action as we actually are seeing a little bit of continuation over the weekend. More importantly we have some things to point out here on our crown trading app which can be found at Epcot Crown tiny dot net. It’s free. Go take an account and in and take advantage of it anyways. The open interest has actually been steadily coming up as we’ve been watching it for the last few weeks or while mostly the last week and a half has really been related to each other as we’ve seen the open interest come down as Bitcoin moves up in price action. Now we’re seeing the open interest go up as bitcoin comes down in price action that can be tied the analysis very very soon. But before we get into that also do you want to check out the other online market dynamics on of which we do see Bitcoin dominance more or less steady here. Not really seeing any much any any major change there so it’s most likely ranged on the lows vs. bitcoin. Sorry Burstow she’s on top of that total market. More or less steady as well. And the crypto fear and greed index also pretty much the same from yesterday as well although we did go from an 8 to a 12. So people getting a little bit more optimistic. Bitcoin drops down another 300 dollars very unseen stuff but that said let’s get the actual into the actual analysis right now and address the opening statement. Now typically my opening statements or Michael or my titles are completely click bait. They have very little to do with the actual content of the videos but this one is going to be the focus right now as we do have the two day dildo death cross now fully initiated. This is hard or at least has been a signal of death and destruction in bitcoin land at least the past few times that we’ve gotten it. On a macro scale now while we are here and because it is a Sunday and we will be talking about long term price analysis let’s started off with with some higher timeframes as which we will start off with the two days. So this is the green 55 that is purple 200 that is an expansion would average death cross and it is more or less confirmed. Technically speaking you know you’d want to see one more one more solidified to date although in order to fully informally say that it’s you know confirmed confirmed confirmed but this is probably good enough for me and this is essentially my read on price action and I believe that this will hold up. I mean it’s inevitably going to hold up as these are fucking moving averages to be on with as long as Bitcoin especially remains but below 7000. And even as long as it’s below about 70 300 which is actually going to be a very important number going onwards and forwards here when we look at the month close anyways as we look at it right now all these major move numbers have very aggressive negative slope specially on the 55 and the 21 and we can see that there’s been a damn good indication between these two over the history of Bitcoin. So the last few times that we’ve actually seen this happen on in Bitcoin which is actually the only true numbers that we’ve seen it in Bitcoin. Ten years of history were back on over here in in what is a September 2018 bitcoin gets a death cross right here and then slowly but surely as we get ground down below the yellow one it’s mentioned on average in all of the vaults now switch on their cell programs. That is what catalyzed this move all the way from about 65 50 high to a 52 and a quarter percent low at around thirty one ish region about what is this last year or two years ago now. Now that’s last year. Holy shit man this is fucking crazy how fast time flies. It actually is really really scary. Anyways we go back down to the time before that that we actually got this in the land of opportunity we do see that’s Bitcoin got the death cross back on over here quite similar after about a year long town trend putting it in descending triangle on the lows to September 2014 it looks like outside. September October 2014. And we get the death cross right over here. Next time gets rejected. Then it gets ground down below the yellow 21 infantrymen damage as well. Very similar. And until we put in the next major low on a massive capitulation volume spike we move about a 64 percent move from top to bottom from that last high rejection to the next low. Now before that we don’t really have any other examples because well Bitcoin hasn’t been around for all that long about a little bit over 10 years now but more importantly we have our third and potentially potentially trend forming signal of this as to time doesn’t necessarily make a trend three times does but we can look at some other exemplary indicators that are going to round at this analysis a little bit better anyways as it stands right now. Bitcoin does have the death cross more or less confirmed. I know technically you’d want to see one more one you know one more double solidified but this is probably good enough for me as I did say and just playing with numbers here as I do think that that’s fun to do you know plant a plant plant some number games we can shave off you know an average of that price that we’ve seen before and just check out where bitcoin may find itself as if we do shave off about 50 whereas let’s put it that actually puts us that back down around here and our 3000 or low or thirty three hundred although if you wanna get exact with that numbers now that that number actually is quite interesting because we do go over here to see armies. Well for all the gap boys that talk about eleven thousand five hundred and more recently eighty seven hundred right here and we will have certainly another one open up today as well assuming that big one doesn’t have a five minute rally to the upside before C.M. is open at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time by the way we just had daylight savings here in Finland and I fucking hate this is the worst. It’s literally the worst day of the year every fucking year. I absolutely despise it why take away why take away an hour of sleep. I don’t know but that’s just what we do as humans I suppose. Anyways I just lost my train of thought was I about say yes. So as far as CND go we do see that there’s going to be we’re going to open up on another gap on it over here. But the gap that people don’t actually really like to talk about too often or at least the people who perhaps you know live with their parents and do cryptocurrency analysis and talk about inflation and hyper inflation without doing any sort of fucking relativity calculations which is what makes that even fucking relevant to begin with. Anyway sorry. We do see that there actually is a little bit of a gap action back down around here. Now is this a major one. No I don’t really think so and to be quite honest with you I don’t think that it actually even is a gap but it is funny that people seem to really focus on the ones that point north rather than ones that point south. I traded well I’ve traded our so I started out as professional market maker authorized trader and we well in traditional markets you have gaps all the time because there’s an open and only trade for 6 1/2 hours a day as you know which is quite different than this right here which you know CNE futures trade like five days a week for but you know most the trading day. But you still get gaps on them anyways. My point is is that you know in traditional markets gaps are certainly relevant and certainly very much very much viable trading strategy. But there’s a very specific way to be doing it and it’s really not relevant until you actually get there with price action you don’t just look at it as like a fucking vacuum but it is interesting that we’re gonna show a few things that kind of line up but this area down around here. So we’ll keep that in the back of our minds eye and in all and as always for the people in the TIA program I want to be following up on that. You do have a bonus module that I uploaded maybe a few months ago away in the back of the program. Holy shit man. Programs like literally more than 2 x long of what I of what I initially debuted at with but it’s like it’s like my life’s work now is what it is. And and that goes over Gap Theory and then grab trading strategies anyways so as we focus in on what’s going on read it over here. Back on our back on our bitcoin charts I want to now put the I want to now put to D what’s it called the spotlight on what do what do we want take this next because there’s so many ways take this. Well let’s let’s let’s first just talk about the daily The Daily divergences which I believe are present on semi’s. Actually no actually yes they are. So we do have hit bearish divergence between this point at about 80 150 and this local high that we’re kind of confirming right now are in the process of confirming massive doubling between this point at this point right here. I do like that. I think it’s one of more pronounced actually on spot price action between this point and this point in fact do we even make two drops of governance. No we did not but we get a little bit of perhaps regular back right around here. Actually we did although albeit not all that strong anyways more importantly as bitcoin does start as Bitcoin has kind of been rise up this whole way Remember remember the things that we’ve been looking at with the open interest initially coming down ever since Bitcoin had that’s Diablo about 4000 bucks right and over here then volume started tailing off and price section was rising what does that tell you that tells you that the rise in price action was coming from Schwartz closing which just means that bears are taking profit and now it looks like because we see open interest start to steadily rise again we’ve actually seen them add one hundred million one hundred million contract position since since like you know about a week ago in price action now coming down. That does tell me that side that does give us a good insight that likely what the big market movers are doing is that they are adding book back on to short positions. So people aren’t you know I mean know what you’d expect in bitcoin actually was going to have a reversal here is you would have expected that we would have actually stepped back above about 7000 bucks and held above there on a daily with open interest rising as well. That was exactly the opposite of what happened thus far does mean that it can’t change. But I would say with the time with the time ticking down until the monthly close that is becoming a shorter and shorter window because we do have about two days left. Yeah two days left in the trading in the trading month. And so that’s going to make us really consider the monthly look which will get into you. Well let’s let’s get into it after after looking at momentum is on the daily so daily stocks have come up all the way all the way to the bullish control zone and still price action is more or less caught in a range also within the context of a rising channel bear flag. So we see a redistribution pattern this guy running over here while volumes tailing off so that confirms a pattern. While volatility has been tailing off the whole way through which also confirms a pattern which by the way this same volatility read that we’ve been speaking about for the last few days has actually catalyzed as we showed before about one thousand fifteen hundred dollar boost plus in the past pretty pretty damn nice we’ll be seeing contraction going all the way from March 13th at the major low to where we are right now and now starting to spike back up and maintain above the moving average on it which tells us that we’re probably looking at a move relatively soon sooner rather than later most likely in the last time that we’ve had you know readings like this were well dry. What should should I tell you. Well I should tell you back on over here at the last height about ten thousand five hundred you see it’s very very low after that spike up and then boom massive move from 10000 down to. I mean you could say down to 70 77. You could say all the way to our low. That’s a little bit too aggressive though time before that was coming off our 14000 da high right and over here gets extremely low right and after that breaks 10 3 all the way down to you know fast all the way down to like Sunny five hundred then you know a little bit more for another thousand bucks. But I think that’s asking for a little bit too much there. And then of course you know we have the same thing going on in 2018 right and over here where we get extremely low. I can’t I’m not going to zero in on it too much that I won’t spend too much time on this because we’ve already done it before. But of course as you do see we do see a major spike up as price action falsity to the downside. So those things the underlying market dynamics matching up with the well which with just generic technicals right here as well which is which I. Which is what I typically do like as a trader. So we’re caught in a rising channel which is the redistribution pattern. We see volume tailing off. We see open interest going up as price actually goes down. By the way. And we see volatility at a at a state wide basically at a point that we are very likely to see a major inflection point on the market meaning that we have a ton of juice built up for a big bad move relatively soon. I don’t think that doing time analysis is is that all worthwhile or at least I don’t think that it can be consistently done but volatility is the only way that we can really get an idea of what’s more likely cause volatility volatility like this is probably the most dependable indicator in the sense that you can always count on volatility to expand and contract. It’s a mean reverting indicator and that’s just the way that’s designed and that’s the beauty of mathematics and that is incredibly useful as a trader in this market. So what does that mean. Well it as you know as we do have a rising channel going on right here you could even call it a bear flag and we will talk about Bear Flag targets after this although I don’t think that it’s actually a bear flag. But but but a rising channels measure move is just as is is pretty nasty as well. We do see that the bottom side support of this which is currently coming in around 59 50 ish region would would would constitute our lower support trendline of this rise channel just like this blue box over here at around 73 hundred which is going to be very very important number by the way for the monthly governs our topside resistance anyways if we break below this blue box right here that will initiate a major move technically all the way down to about 41 50 ish region down around here 40 to under this region in this blue box. Technically speaking on lower on lower lows we closed down them which actually will give the higher timeframes a chance to get divergence which means that we could bottom out or least historically speaking that’s what we look for bitcoin to bottom out. Not only that but while we are here on the floor out of the four hour 21 century average is looking across the downs of the 55 while need to see it kind of like a rolling over it here anyways. Anyways what what tip was I just on just there. Yes. OK cool so while we do have this up. We do have you know we do have a way for it now. Do you think that there would be bounced along the way and you know who’s who knows how long this takes to play out. Who fucking cares. Doesn’t matter. I just go level by level. Of course if we do break fifty nine fifty to the downside I would look for moved down to about fifty five hundred ish region which also can be the weekly taunted simple which will look out a little bit later then after that. I do think that bitcoin would have another short term time frame bounce somewhere around 51 50 and then probably rollover its way all the way down here to its final destination. You know assuming that this all works out but we’re making massive assumptions right now. I just want to show that all these things work together and when we look at our higher term time frame signals right now it does suggest that we do have some downside. Also while we are here on our medium term time frames let’s go over to the 12 hour twelve hour stocks still still plenty down and still kind of call in this range that we’ve been working on scientists already have that trend on in right there. But remember that trend line right there that that’s the one that made me really consider that 60 800 ish region as a nice area of distribution and a local top which did play out. I’m not saying that sound arrogant but I am saying that to follow up for the people who’ve been on this channel for quite some time and you know sometimes sometimes these signals do take a little bit of time but if you know once you’ve seen them play out a few times then you trust OK or maybe not trust is the right word but you see how that interaction is likely to play out and you don’t get you don’t get you don’t get thrown off when you’re trading a 12 hour and then you get under the fucking 30 minute chart and start getting scared about every last little you know momentum also to turn up there or divergence play there. It’s irrelevant it’s doesn’t matter it’s bullshit but more importantly on the twelve hour right here we have some very nice trend lines at a bitcoin been playing off of for the last couple months. And when you find some that works. What about one of the things that my mentor always said and I used to fucking hate it but it is so damn true the more and more that I meditate on it and that is when you fight when it comes to tentacle announced and you find some that works just stick with that until it stops working and then find something new and you’re just kind of going off of what the next operators is you know is running with and kind of finding out whatever their edges anyways. Right now we do have a pretty damn good one as Bitcoin has been getting rejected by this trend line ever since February 9th when Bitcoin was quite literally all the way over here at about 10000 bucks a little bit north of 10000 bucks so got that high right there. Then that high is next. Our. The next guy that got that guy rejected on this trend line and was back on over here in March right here before the inevitable doom dropped from about 8000 down to forty five hundred if you want to call it that. And then once again hitting it hitting that trend line right here more recently at 67 50 ish region. Now I do believe that this probably is more more more time to play out. But I also believe that we’re kind of we’re you know we’re going to bounce off this trend line down around here and we’re going to be caught into a nice consolidation period and then have a resolution way may maybe in like mayor or some like that. What is next month is March April May 4th. That’s that’s too far away. Well fair enough. This market probably gets slowed down. It has been quite volatile recently and well after volatile expands and it contracts anyways this trend line coming down around the edge of the bull sorry edge of the bearish control zone is quite nice as well as we typically do see some counter time pressure there and also connected with some very important lows coming in from our bouncy bounce right here from about eighty five to nine five thousand dollar move then. But then right after that we got this little side note not that bounce right there. This this this one right here from 39 all the way to 58. Jesus Christ. 2004 move. Then again right after that right here around 45 all the way up to I mean really 66 and then now we are kind of caught in a range. So I do like that three touches does make a trend. And we have three on both sides and I really really really really really like that. Anyways I would suggest that we do have momentum to begin to the downside here and it does help me kind of round out my bias to the downside also 12 hour RSI breaking its rise in front of the downside before price action by the way. This is the value of looking at the momentum also which I do put a shit ton of weight on formations within those and what it what happens after we break the rising down of the downside we’re back below the exponential we’re testing you around the edge of the bash control zone and we might have a small bouncy bounce here but once we start closing RSA twelve our RSI into this region I would look for price action to fall through as well. Well we’ll save it for later anyways anyways. Okay cool so what else do I want to talk about while we’re here. Let’s actually go now to some fundamentals for this or sorry. No before we do that let’s talk about a little bit more directly towards the people who are saying that the lows are in because bitcoin can’t go lower bro. This is your hedge against the financial collapse and everyone who buys bitcoin is going to be rich by doing nothing and then you also just have to huddle it until you’re dead because that’s the way that. I think that’s the way that Hollars thinks like I’m some guy less. Last night in the Twitch chat and I don’t mean to pick on this person but I’m just curious what he was saying that I will Hoddle who’s asking Should I buy Bitcoin it’s like there’s never a good answer for that because I can’t know anything about you and your risk tolerance and your preferences and what you’re even trying to do with that. But I basically asked him like I basically said that and they said I’m just Look I’m not going to I’m not going to sell it I’ll hold it till the day that I died. Like what then what’s the point. I mean I don’t think the world’s gonna go to a bitcoin standard anytime soon. I think that bitcoin has its place in this world but you’re not going be able to use it if you just hold on to it. So I don’t know. I don’t know. Fair enough. Would you also be interested in silver. No just kidding. Anyways here’s the big thing with with this as well if we do start see the daily Stokes get tired here and start and start crawl back down that would be another good indication that we will come back down at low 5000 as well anyways. Looking at daily RSI what do we see more or less toppy looks like it once come back down a little bit but other than that I’m not seeing anything too obvious. More importantly let’s now or do I want to get on over to that. Mm hmm. Where do I want to take this next we want should we have even talked about the lower term time frames. You know let’s talk about the lower term time frames then we’ll talk about the long term stuff but before but now what we’ll say we’ll say that for the long term stuff. Okay cool. Let’s go back down the lower term timeframes for our really nothing’s changed here since yesterday is just we’re kind of playing this out a little bit more. It’s actually good orgy tax chart as sort of a more condensed. But as far as this goes right here we did hit our lowest point of this run we and we dig it out and we did get essentially a rejection of the upside as well. Or I was saying 60 400 we got six 30. Close enough is close enough. My only opinion is it’s just is that this is very low timeframe stuff and doesn’t really resolve the whole picture. Only the short term the medium term time frames actually do resolve some pretty big moves. And that would be below this blue box right here or above this area right here which will actually put in a blue box as well just to kind of to note that it is a little bit more important but also very relevant current price action because we’re quite far away. And then of course the ones that the this guy right here and this guy right here only lower term time frame stuff if we do break this one right here I do believe that we will see that full on move all the way down to meet this guy about fifty nine hundred fifty nine fifty ish region and probably another short term time frame bounce there. However I do think that that bounce and well we’ll get sold into overtime or at least likely and I’d look for a break of this region fifty nine fifty and then we can talk about you know more fun talk to the downside by the same token to the upside. This trend line right here we can actually move it down just a smidgen more in line with her last week high right here and that’s around 60. Let’s call it 63 50 ish region if Bitcoin does start to even just trade back above there again I would look for extension all the way up here to test this blue box territory but this blue box territory does not change anything or so it doesn’t really change anything for the for the higher term conference but it does for the medium term time frames and if we do actually break back about this region which is sixty seven fifty sixty eight hundred if you’re a little more conservative I would look for full and move all the way up here which would you consider there a Tesla topside trend line somewhere right around get rid of this one it’s not relevant either right now some are right around about seventy two hundred some three hundred ish region which is very very important in bitcoin still is a chance to do that to be fair bulls still could pull through here although I think that looking at the underline Mark dynamics I think it’s unlikely and we’ll look at probabilities and just second as well but if Bitcoin were to close above this region I just want to show that I would actually immediately get long term bullish once again the reason being because bitcoin would finally be back above the yellow 21 century average on the monthly which as of right now we are clean thousand dollars below more that a little bit more than a thousand dollars below its right now at about twenty three hundred. That is the importance of the 79 interest number from a monthly closing basis of which we get a monthly close in two days and while thousand dollar move in two days is actually not not that crazy for bitcoin but again it has to actually do it as long as we’re below there I am bearish long term and here’s the thing Bitcoin loved to play off that 21 on the on the monthly we can go all the way back down to the genesis chart on B Lux index and anytime that that that price action is above the twenty one were generally bullish especially as long as it has a positive slope a time that we’re below we’re generally bearish especially as it has a negative slope you know you can you can just eyeball this one out very very simple. This is something that I use as well when I was a professional market maker to judge if a stock was long term bearish or bullish and kind of like how to play it and how to angle it long term but for bitcoin it does seem to work pretty damn well as well and I would imagine that’s gonna work even better as more and more time transpires in this as it gets more and more mature anyways. Okay cool so now that we’ve got the lower term time frames either way that was fast is easy. Let’s actually look at momentum also just because actually are they actually are kind of painting a different picture. We do see for our Stokes technically up right now I don’t think that this holds. I actually do think that is going to come down sooner rather than later but that’s just my opinion it’s irrelevant you know. If it turns back around on the short term time frames I don’t. Like I said I don’t have too much of a strong pin on that. It’s only if it breaks you know these these levels right here sixty six three fifty the upside or a sixty one to the downside. Even on like a low time frame close is probably good enough. And then we could target those moves a little bit deeper into the blue box territories right here and right here respectfully speaking we do have an Aldi death cross so you know Bitcoin’s gonna be our damn floor. No just kidding silliness. But more importantly what what was the next point I was gonna get on. Yes. OK. So momentum also. So we looked at the for hour for our our side does say that we have some more downside here. We are met. We’re not making any evidence plays anytime soon as you can see. Let me get rid of this one because it’s not. I mean it is relevant but it’s not really for this time frame. You know this this looks weak to me. Let’s look at the three our three looks weak to me as well. We’ll be reading or could could create some divergence though to our day get some divergence but I believe that’s already played out. Yes indeed it did all the way from sixty six thousand side 6000 all the way up to sixty three point three in it all I move out of 6000 price points from a three hour total time frame that’s 5 percent move that’s incredible. It’s fucking incredible. This is fucking This is fucking I mean that’s a Saturday we have 5 percent we’ve just fucking insane day traders come on over to bitcoin this is amazing. Anyways hourly look looking at stocks we are rejecting the Bush trolls coming down you know this doth sense as well as getting in then two hours well we do have a nice trend line forming right here which is likely going to give a little bit of harassment price action but could also but but also doesn’t play that we might spend a little bit of time going sideways if we let the catch up anyways that gets lower time for us pretty damn well again to wrap it up this area right here for short term sixty one hundred if we break that to the downside I’ll be looking for a move back down here to like fifty nine horrible call it I do think that is likely to happen and we can look at probabilities and that can go and then we see 63 50 the upside that would initiate a move back up here towards sixty and 68 and then the critical areas really are these blue boxes with a break which is gonna initiate you know much more long term moves both to the upside and the downside respectfully speaking so let’s go see the probability of these but with respect to a stock of all to the percentile and the twelve hour has been so phenomenally accurately accurate recently I don’t know why this one’s more accurate than the daily but I have a theory but it doesn’t really matter because who gives a fuck what my theory is anyways more importantly we can’t see that the probabilities are very likely gonna be angled on the downside here but let’s let’s actually do it right in so we can look at exactly what the probability breaking sixty one as for the low term time frames on the next twelve hour total closure which is going to be 43 percent pretty damn high pretty fucking high to be quite exact actually into the upside we had on the very low time frames again very very very very low timeframe so not all that relevant. We’ll look at the medium term time frame. Critical markers in a second here but sad but look into the upside. Little bit significantly less actually about a little bit less than 29 percent which is still relatively high I mean anything above 25 percent is is considerable. It’s within the realm of possibility and remember like we’re looking at a continuous market here so if something that’s a 40 percent or 30 percent chance to play out and we are looking at you know 3 different candle closures then Well since we’re speaking you should be point out that move or Lethem makes sense for you know for 30 percent essentially a 30 percent probability anyways. Now now that we have those low term time frames technically speaking the probabilities are on the lows are intense in the downside. But remember that doesn’t matter for the medium term time frames only the short term. So let’s go and check out what it would be for the low time frames outside the medium term time frames that I’m gonna call it fifty nine hundred just because I want to be a little bit more on the conservative side here and that as you can see you can just eyeball it it’s right at the bottom side of the first aviation so it’s gonna be around a 60 percent chance this one gonna be a little bit a little bit more than that actually twenty one and a half percent chance of we actually do close this next twelve hour Delta below that crazy but below that critical area which I don’t think is happening on a daily though that’s where I think things could actually really angled down here as we do see the probability if you want to call these cones you might call them rings or whatever the fuck you want to call them angling down once again that actually does have about a thirty four and a quarter percent probability to happen on the next day we did a closure which can be the weekly closure which is really really important. And then of course we can look at the top side as well which should actually be pretty decently sized here. We’ll call it sixty eight hundred just because it’s a more conservative number and we did the same thing for the downside and less than less than an 80 percent chance happen here. So within the realm of possibility but not the highest probability outcome and and of course we go down to a twelve it’s going to be significantly less I imagine. Yeah. Three and a half percent on the next twelve our total closure in five hours and four minutes and five seconds. So yeah. Probabilities on the downside right now which is starting to line up more and more with my analysis and then more importantly especially on the 12 hour we do see that the that the rings are starting to line up with with the critical areas once again which I really really like we see the first aviation to the downside showing 59 20 ish region which is right in line with that and to the upside we see about 6 50 but that’s not the important one. It’s really this guy right here at the second celebration which is less than a two and a half percent chance single cited above there. So it is more like that we go to the downside right here from a. From a mathematical perspective as well. And we can also check out the underlying markdown or actually. Okay. So. So now that we’ve got all of the low term time frame stuff bullshit out of the way. What I really should say now let’s talk about high term time frame. So we spoke a little bit about the monthly I think that kind of. Well actually let’s do a little bit more of a deep dive on the monthly monthly Stokes rejected the Bush controls on two months ago in October or not two months ago but in October 2019 and looks like they are freshly minted to the downside again. It’s got you know it’s a long time from now until the end of the month closed till another two days. But as it is right now that’s not that’s not good. And then. And then monthly RSI here is concerning. I do believe as we did break below and we’re holding well below the exponential which you really do not like. And after one two three tests into the bearish control zone I fear that the next test might might leave us stuck in there for a while. So this can get much much much much much worse. If that were to happen of course that hasn’t happened just yet. And also we’re going to be doing some that we only do four times a year we’re gonna be closing the quarterly chart as well the triple monthly and the triple monthly actually is not that bad. And if the triple monthly close above the 10 simple which is which is actually 70 300 as well. This would be phenomenally bullish. So you know take you know take it as you will that you know that is in the car. So if Bitcoin were to pull a nice fake out here and move back about 20 300 massively massively fucking bullish special on a multi dollar closure and it is possible to be fair like the properties aren’t that far off it’s unlikely but it’s it’s not that far off I am no good. So the downside here I I’m bash and I am and I’m still holding a little bit of my short from two days ago it was like 67 69 maybe 60 next I like that number I don’t know. But we did we did it on Twitch. So what. Whatever it was then still got a little bit on that although I have covered it mostly was short put so I do like that I like to take profit with those with those daily options just glorious gloriously gloriously overpriced options options were created to be sold as the saying goes anyways that is secret information that I shouldn’t be saying. Okay cool. So what else shall we say. What should we look at here while we’re on the tired term time. Go check out the weekly we do have a weekly close coming in tonight. There is a couple of obvious things for the weekly close if the weekly closes below the two minute expansion and average that would be incredibly bearish. That is currently at fifty nine hundred. That also that number also very Jordan of course as at the bottom cites part of the rising channel though the weekly closed coming in at 8 p.m. Eastern Time I believe it is or at least or 0 0 UTC. That’s actually easier to say midnight UTC whatever the fuck that means. So if we did close below 50 900 that would be the most obvious thing for playing out more downside back down to the low five thousands and very likely below that over time. I mean should if we close the weekly below 55 50 the turn it’s simple that would be that would be pretty nasty as well but I don’t think about that I don’t think that we do that today. Also while we’re while we’re on here on the weekly if we do close anything like this this is going to look like a rejection of the yellow 21 and the green 55 cross cross that is current right now. Just take everything else off so that we can focus in on this baby. As as this cross careen right here and again if you if you are in the Today programme reference the EMEA model right now this is very very very very important as you might see this play out in front of your very eyes especially if we see this next to this next weekly closure anywhere below 6000 can be catastrophic. And and one was last and we saw this one happen. Oh it looks very similar to the death cross that we saw on the two day isn’t it. Now obviously this one’s gonna be a little more formidable as it is a higher type higher term time frame but similar results going all the way from sixty nine hundred to seven years to thirty one hundred ish region. We do have one example other than that in the history of Bitcoin back on over here pretty much the same thing as we saw on the two day as well so I do like that and they should naturally line up but some bites. But just showing that if you know bitcoin does confirm this is a local high. Basically this this this last weeks of price action than I would expect that to really have some major implications with price action to the downside once again. We also do see that weekly Stokes are nose diving right here and we got that we got a similar trend line governing our lows thus far going all the way back to February of 2019. Like literally more than a year ago on this trend line right here by the way so that that trend line helps head up this flow at 30 hundred this low right here at thirty three hundred. This I think there is another one right here before this three thousand dollar pump and another one right here before this 4000 dollar pump and then while you can see that that trend line is coming in much much lower on price action. So if we did if we if we are going to come back down and meet it and play at this cemetery on this market then we got some well we got we got a lot of time to play on the weekly. Not only that let’s go back down to the daily so the daily on Bitcoin. We’ve been we’ve been seeing this as well or we and we’ve been monitoring this as well and perhaps and perhaps perhaps other people out there as well. Not really focused on that one right now. Hey where are you going. Okay. Elsa’s wearing like full on sweatpants. Anyways anyways so bitcoin on a macro scale and even on a major scale has never had a major reversal without playing out bullish divergence on the daily. And I’m talking about reversal it you know four four four for macro either market cycle or just long term. And what do we see on this. Well do we have any bullish Chevron’s coming off a current low. No absolutely not. There is no bullish evidence at all whatsoever even on this major low right here which was not a mark like a low but was a major low we had two drives one to this one right here before this three thousand dollar pump one two three drives in works from the top as well. By the way on our last market cycle low in 2010 late 2018 One two three drives plenty plenty of examples right here in 2018 on you know know these failed rallies and then there’s several others in the past which you are free to look at yourself which I which I’ll just you know don’t trust me I just you know verify yourself and then yeah. Fair enough anyways. Okay cool. So with that said you know it you know is the case for a bitcoin bottom you know that strong here. I would say. No I don’t think that we’ve seen the bottom. If we go over here to some fundamentals good you’ve got some fundamentals baby already 30 minutes deep into this video holy shit this one’s a long one. This is the bitcoin MBP so out now I’ve not been using this one for a long time but there has been some reworks on this and I do believe that there are some relevant things to be looking at right now that are interesting. Now I don’t put that much faith in this and I don’t put that much weight on this. And I think that the creator’s results kind of speak for himself and that’s kind of like leave that where it is. But I do think that it’s interesting that we can’t look at some fundamentals here that would suggest that we have unlikely seen the low on the market cycle anytime that bitcoins made a mark cycle low or even like a major low. We see the end BTC will come up well below or least a little bit below the pink zone right here called in with this major low right here correlated with this with these with these actually these are not even market like lows. These are just major lows but you can see them all throughout the history of Bitcoin. Again both major lows and some market cycle lows mixed in there. However more recently in 30 100 we actually did not get below that region at at that last up to the downside at 4000. We didn’t get anywhere near that region. So is it likely that bitcoin has bottomed out here. No. From a fundamental perspective. Not really. And we can go back to the bitcoin view OP ratio how many times we looked at this too many times. But I’ll go over one more time as calm as we do see that we have the same signature that we’ve seen many times in the past many many times in the past before major mass of doom drops and you find that we get the purple and the pink and below where my cross currently is right now. Think of that as a nice regression and the purple leading the pink back down below there which is almost about to happen again as we do see the pink is a little bit above right now. Then we have played out 70 percent draw downs before. What I’m talking about is right here. You see this. You see this move right here that correlates with the last major move from about 10 3 all the way down to 6 5. You see the one you see the one before that right and over here happens from. Well basically the high of 20000 down to six. And then again right here from. Well about 6000 down to 3000. Sounds familiar. Right. Then we have another example right here in 2014 right here on this bull trap going from here to here another 70 percent move. And we have this one right here on this on this high right on this parabolic high going all the way from here to here. I don’t know the price numbers is off my head. Then again right here and again right here and you can again watch these 1 3 4 for yourselves. But more importantly we have you know perhaps the same signal in the making which can be confirmed as early as today. Now we can go back to those examples and kind of measure them out to see what that has produced in the past with regards to the bitcoin or the bitcoin view OP ratio which we had an example right here. That’s a 40 percent move to the downside. We had an example right here we know that this one’s like 50 percent. We had another example right here at the height. Twenty thousand bucks. Sixty nine percent. Nice great no timing for that was way back on over here on this bull trap. Do you remember right here going all the way down 77 percent. Kind of a little bit of an outlier them. Then we had this guy right here next low 66 percent. We had this guy right here last night and next low 77 percent. And then like a knife someone back on over here which we won’t even focus on because fuck it I don’t wanna piss off the moon boys too much although it’s it is kind of it is kind of fun. It’s also gonna be fun to piss off the doom boys too. I don’t necessarily think that bitcoin is going completely to the gutter. I think that I think that still can be relevant long term but this can take you know decades to play out really. If you are a believer in Bitcoin anyways. Okay. So we spoke about all that. Um what else what other pictures do we want to be painting. Do we have anything to be looking out on the biweekly perhaps. Hashtag gave for T.A.. Not really no not not really no. I’m not really getting too much from this chart. It’s just put back on all the major revamp just in case. Mm hmm. Not really. Not really. So fair enough. I’m wonder if we have any dual signals building up as well. Now we did. We did see a three hour dual cell signal play out though running over here which we spoke about on twitch a few days ago right here at the high at sixty seven so nice 700 on move top to bottom thus far. Not better than that to be of any signals building right now. Not really. No not really. Don’t think so I’m gonna take some patients for the next big one but some either a dual bison on the low or a or at least daily bullish divergence on a low and then maybe when I have a low but until then I’m overall bearish. I mean I’m overall bearish especially as long as Bitcoin’s below sixty eight hundred that loss at a local high read them. Do you have anything to look at the three day not. Songs are below the and it’s simple not good. We even we’ve been closed the last three day dollar below the 3 7 7 so it’s a little bit of a rejection as well. Again not you know not not the picture of health and fitness here. Okay cool. Let’s go check out we all. There’s nothing to update on traditional markets as they’re not trading today obviously. Let’s go check out a couple of the top sheet coins and then some this baby off because I want to get to gaming. Let’s see Mr. beta all looks like garbage. But Mrs. like Wayne ugly. Stellar. Okay. Not so stellar ripple ripple actually looks OK actually ripples probably the most bullish looking one of the bunch. And looks like con wants to take a leg up to 20 cents. And I’m not even and I’m not joking. But will it do that. Bitcoin comes down very unlikely and usually ripples one of the last ones to rally. If you remember in 2018 I think there’s a really good example of that. Yes. No no no. Tron. No. Let’s see. What about like Link. You know one of the one of the traditionally more strong ones now kind of losing its luster here as well as wants to swallow about 234. I am not a fan of it. If you could pop back above two to an hour bucks I’d be very bullish on it at least for a move back up to the prior high rounds like 384 bucks. But right now it looks like it’s falling the rest of the market not going to be an outlier at least at least that’s what it looks like right now. So yeah. As far as bitcoin goes we’ll wrap this bitch up right now. Overall very very short term time frames. Relevant areas at least for myself. This is not finished by my French advisor but sixty three fifty. The upside would initiate a move back up towards like 67 68 so pretty damn pretty damn tradable right there by the same token closing an even like an hourly Delta below like 60 100. I would look for an extension all the way down to 59 maybe 59 50 some like that. That’s where things actually can change. Obviously above 68 hundreds fled to the north side. I’d look for an extension to 73. That’s where the monthly picture starts to change around much much more and I get very very bullish. Below here and I want that to be no surprise you know right now. Obviously my bias is bearish my bias will change to bullish above here and in would moderately change above here actually as well above 68. Just because well we’re so close to the end of the month close that you know getting back into that region would more or less start to really look interesting. Anyways breaking this guy here to the downside 59 hydro call it you know I do think that there’s been that there’d be bounce along the way but ultimately speaking. Technically speaking there is a measurement pointing all the way down to about forty two hundred ish region anyways. That’s going to do it for right now this video’s already 40 minutes long. I want to wish you well once again on this and I stuck to your Sunday morning. I did not test to see if I’m recording or not Mike’s working. I don’t actually Oh shit. Is it working. I think it I think it is working but. But I’ll be signing off now. I’ll be signing twitch in a little bit and you need some food first and then and then it’s and then it’s game time watching some price action. Maybe we might even see some moves today which would be really really really really really cool. Anyways take care. And until next time.

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scottmapess · 5 years ago

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Bitcoin Last Time This Happened 50%+ Move Occurred! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

The last two times that we’ve seen this signal Bitcoin dropped a subsequent 57 percent. That. Me made my stance based on. My size. My son said. I made a mistake. That made a monster. Well well well welcome back. Crown’s credo cave waking up for a little bit an earlier morning after a massively long epically long twitch stream last night which had a shit ton of fun. I want to wish everyone well who joined on in because well and everyone else as well. Because why the fuck not. But more importantly it was a it was a ton of fun so I want a massive thing. Come on out. We’ll be doing to get to the hip perhaps even longer. So the new record is on the books anyways. We’ve got a lot to talk about and good on price action as we actually are seeing a little bit of continuation over the weekend. More importantly we have some things to point out here on our crown trading app which can be found at Epcot Crown tiny dot net. It’s free. Go take an account and in and take advantage of it anyways. The open interest has actually been steadily coming up as we’ve been watching it for the last few weeks or while mostly the last week and a half has really been related to each other as we’ve seen the open interest come down as Bitcoin moves up in price action. Now we’re seeing the open interest go up as bitcoin comes down in price action that can be tied the analysis very very soon. But before we get into that also do you want to check out the other online market dynamics on of which we do see Bitcoin dominance more or less steady here. Not really seeing any much any any major change there so it’s most likely ranged on the lows vs. bitcoin. Sorry Burstow she’s on top of that total market. More or less steady as well. And the crypto fear and greed index also pretty much the same from yesterday as well although we did go from an 8 to a 12. So people getting a little bit more optimistic. Bitcoin drops down another 300 dollars very unseen stuff but that said let’s get the actual into the actual analysis right now and address the opening statement. Now typically my opening statements or Michael or my titles are completely click bait. They have very little to do with the actual content of the videos but this one is going to be the focus right now as we do have the two day dildo death cross now fully initiated. This is hard or at least has been a signal of death and destruction in bitcoin land at least the past few times that we’ve gotten it. On a macro scale now while we are here and because it is a Sunday and we will be talking about long term price analysis let’s started off with with some higher timeframes as which we will start off with the two days. So this is the green 55 that is purple 200 that is an expansion would average death cross and it is more or less confirmed. Technically speaking you know you’d want to see one more one more solidified to date although in order to fully informally say that it’s you know confirmed confirmed confirmed but this is probably good enough for me and this is essentially my read on price action and I believe that this will hold up. I mean it’s inevitably going to hold up as these are fucking moving averages to be on with as long as Bitcoin especially remains but below 7000. And even as long as it’s below about 70 300 which is actually going to be a very important number going onwards and forwards here when we look at the month close anyways as we look at it right now all these major move numbers have very aggressive negative slope specially on the 55 and the 21 and we can see that there’s been a damn good indication between these two over the history of Bitcoin. So the last few times that we’ve actually seen this happen on in Bitcoin which is actually the only true numbers that we’ve seen it in Bitcoin. Ten years of history were back on over here in in what is a September 2018 bitcoin gets a death cross right here and then slowly but surely as we get ground down below the yellow one it’s mentioned on average in all of the vaults now switch on their cell programs. That is what catalyzed this move all the way from about 65 50 high to a 52 and a quarter percent low at around thirty one ish region about what is this last year or two years ago now. Now that’s last year. Holy shit man this is fucking crazy how fast time flies. It actually is really really scary. Anyways we go back down to the time before that that we actually got this in the land of opportunity we do see that’s Bitcoin got the death cross back on over here quite similar after about a year long town trend putting it in descending triangle on the lows to September 2014 it looks like outside. September October 2014. And we get the death cross right over here. Next time gets rejected. Then it gets ground down below the yellow 21 infantrymen damage as well. Very similar. And until we put in the next major low on a massive capitulation volume spike we move about a 64 percent move from top to bottom from that last high rejection to the next low. Now before that we don’t really have any other examples because well Bitcoin hasn’t been around for all that long about a little bit over 10 years now but more importantly we have our third and potentially potentially trend forming signal of this as to time doesn’t necessarily make a trend three times does but we can look at some other exemplary indicators that are going to round at this analysis a little bit better anyways as it stands right now. Bitcoin does have the death cross more or less confirmed. I know technically you’d want to see one more one you know one more double solidified but this is probably good enough for me as I did say and just playing with numbers here as I do think that that’s fun to do you know plant a plant plant some number games we can shave off you know an average of that price that we’ve seen before and just check out where bitcoin may find itself as if we do shave off about 50 whereas let’s put it that actually puts us that back down around here and our 3000 or low or thirty three hundred although if you wanna get exact with that numbers now that that number actually is quite interesting because we do go over here to see armies. Well for all the gap boys that talk about eleven thousand five hundred and more recently eighty seven hundred right here and we will have certainly another one open up today as well assuming that big one doesn’t have a five minute rally to the upside before C.M. is open at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time by the way we just had daylight savings here in Finland and I fucking hate this is the worst. It’s literally the worst day of the year every fucking year. I absolutely despise it why take away why take away an hour of sleep. I don’t know but that’s just what we do as humans I suppose. Anyways I just lost my train of thought was I about say yes. So as far as CND go we do see that there’s going to be we’re going to open up on another gap on it over here. But the gap that people don’t actually really like to talk about too often or at least the people who perhaps you know live with their parents and do cryptocurrency analysis and talk about inflation and hyper inflation without doing any sort of fucking relativity calculations which is what makes that even fucking relevant to begin with. Anyway sorry. We do see that there actually is a little bit of a gap action back down around here. Now is this a major one. No I don’t really think so and to be quite honest with you I don’t think that it actually even is a gap but it is funny that people seem to really focus on the ones that point north rather than ones that point south. I traded well I’ve traded our so I started out as professional market maker authorized trader and we well in traditional markets you have gaps all the time because there’s an open and only trade for 6 1/2 hours a day as you know which is quite different than this right here which you know CNE futures trade like five days a week for but you know most the trading day. But you still get gaps on them anyways. My point is is that you know in traditional markets gaps are certainly relevant and certainly very much very much viable trading strategy. But there’s a very specific way to be doing it and it’s really not relevant until you actually get there with price action you don’t just look at it as like a fucking vacuum but it is interesting that we’re gonna show a few things that kind of line up but this area down around here. So we’ll keep that in the back of our minds eye and in all and as always for the people in the TIA program I want to be following up on that. You do have a bonus module that I uploaded maybe a few months ago away in the back of the program. Holy shit man. Programs like literally more than 2 x long of what I of what I initially debuted at with but it’s like it’s like my life’s work now is what it is. And and that goes over Gap Theory and then grab trading strategies anyways so as we focus in on what’s going on read it over here. Back on our back on our bitcoin charts I want to now put the I want to now put to D what’s it called the spotlight on what do what do we want take this next because there’s so many ways take this. Well let’s let’s let’s first just talk about the daily The Daily divergences which I believe are present on semi’s. Actually no actually yes they are. So we do have hit bearish divergence between this point at about 80 150 and this local high that we’re kind of confirming right now are in the process of confirming massive doubling between this point at this point right here. I do like that. I think it’s one of more pronounced actually on spot price action between this point and this point in fact do we even make two drops of governance. No we did not but we get a little bit of perhaps regular back right around here. Actually we did although albeit not all that strong anyways more importantly as bitcoin does start as Bitcoin has kind of been rise up this whole way Remember remember the things that we’ve been looking at with the open interest initially coming down ever since Bitcoin had that’s Diablo about 4000 bucks right and over here then volume started tailing off and price section was rising what does that tell you that tells you that the rise in price action was coming from Schwartz closing which just means that bears are taking profit and now it looks like because we see open interest start to steadily rise again we’ve actually seen them add one hundred million one hundred million contract position since since like you know about a week ago in price action now coming down. That does tell me that side that does give us a good insight that likely what the big market movers are doing is that they are adding book back on to short positions. So people aren’t you know I mean know what you’d expect in bitcoin actually was going to have a reversal here is you would have expected that we would have actually stepped back above about 7000 bucks and held above there on a daily with open interest rising as well. That was exactly the opposite of what happened thus far does mean that it can’t change. But I would say with the time with the time ticking down until the monthly close that is becoming a shorter and shorter window because we do have about two days left. Yeah two days left in the trading in the trading month. And so that’s going to make us really consider the monthly look which will get into you. Well let’s let’s get into it after after looking at momentum is on the daily so daily stocks have come up all the way all the way to the bullish control zone and still price action is more or less caught in a range also within the context of a rising channel bear flag. So we see a redistribution pattern this guy running over here while volumes tailing off so that confirms a pattern. While volatility has been tailing off the whole way through which also confirms a pattern which by the way this same volatility read that we’ve been speaking about for the last few days has actually catalyzed as we showed before about one thousand fifteen hundred dollar boost plus in the past pretty pretty damn nice we’ll be seeing contraction going all the way from March 13th at the major low to where we are right now and now starting to spike back up and maintain above the moving average on it which tells us that we’re probably looking at a move relatively soon sooner rather than later most likely in the last time that we’ve had you know readings like this were well dry. What should should I tell you. Well I should tell you back on over here at the last height about ten thousand five hundred you see it’s very very low after that spike up and then boom massive move from 10000 down to. I mean you could say down to 70 77. You could say all the way to our low. That’s a little bit too aggressive though time before that was coming off our 14000 da high right and over here gets extremely low right and after that breaks 10 3 all the way down to you know fast all the way down to like Sunny five hundred then you know a little bit more for another thousand bucks. But I think that’s asking for a little bit too much there. And then of course you know we have the same thing going on in 2018 right and over here where we get extremely low. I can’t I’m not going to zero in on it too much that I won’t spend too much time on this because we’ve already done it before. But of course as you do see we do see a major spike up as price action falsity to the downside. So those things the underlying market dynamics matching up with the well which with just generic technicals right here as well which is which I. Which is what I typically do like as a trader. So we’re caught in a rising channel which is the redistribution pattern. We see volume tailing off. We see open interest going up as price actually goes down. By the way. And we see volatility at a at a state wide basically at a point that we are very likely to see a major inflection point on the market meaning that we have a ton of juice built up for a big bad move relatively soon. I don’t think that doing time analysis is is that all worthwhile or at least I don’t think that it can be consistently done but volatility is the only way that we can really get an idea of what’s more likely cause volatility volatility like this is probably the most dependable indicator in the sense that you can always count on volatility to expand and contract. It’s a mean reverting indicator and that’s just the way that’s designed and that’s the beauty of mathematics and that is incredibly useful as a trader in this market. So what does that mean. Well it as you know as we do have a rising channel going on right here you could even call it a bear flag and we will talk about Bear Flag targets after this although I don’t think that it’s actually a bear flag. But but but a rising channels measure move is just as is is pretty nasty as well. We do see that the bottom side support of this which is currently coming in around 59 50 ish region would would would constitute our lower support trendline of this rise channel just like this blue box over here at around 73 hundred which is going to be very very important number by the way for the monthly governs our topside resistance anyways if we break below this blue box right here that will initiate a major move technically all the way down to about 41 50 ish region down around here 40 to under this region in this blue box. Technically speaking on lower on lower lows we closed down them which actually will give the higher timeframes a chance to get divergence which means that we could bottom out or least historically speaking that’s what we look for bitcoin to bottom out. Not only that but while we are here on the floor out of the four hour 21 century average is looking across the downs of the 55 while need to see it kind of like a rolling over it here anyways. Anyways what what tip was I just on just there. Yes. OK cool so while we do have this up. We do have you know we do have a way for it now. Do you think that there would be bounced along the way and you know who’s who knows how long this takes to play out. Who fucking cares. Doesn’t matter. I just go level by level. Of course if we do break fifty nine fifty to the downside I would look for moved down to about fifty five hundred ish region which also can be the weekly taunted simple which will look out a little bit later then after that. I do think that bitcoin would have another short term time frame bounce somewhere around 51 50 and then probably rollover its way all the way down here to its final destination. You know assuming that this all works out but we’re making massive assumptions right now. I just want to show that all these things work together and when we look at our higher term time frame signals right now it does suggest that we do have some downside. Also while we are here on our medium term time frames let’s go over to the 12 hour twelve hour stocks still still plenty down and still kind of call in this range that we’ve been working on scientists already have that trend on in right there. But remember that trend line right there that that’s the one that made me really consider that 60 800 ish region as a nice area of distribution and a local top which did play out. I’m not saying that sound arrogant but I am saying that to follow up for the people who’ve been on this channel for quite some time and you know sometimes sometimes these signals do take a little bit of time but if you know once you’ve seen them play out a few times then you trust OK or maybe not trust is the right word but you see how that interaction is likely to play out and you don’t get you don’t get you don’t get thrown off when you’re trading a 12 hour and then you get under the fucking 30 minute chart and start getting scared about every last little you know momentum also to turn up there or divergence play there. It’s irrelevant it’s doesn’t matter it’s bullshit but more importantly on the twelve hour right here we have some very nice trend lines at a bitcoin been playing off of for the last couple months. And when you find some that works. What about one of the things that my mentor always said and I used to fucking hate it but it is so damn true the more and more that I meditate on it and that is when you fight when it comes to tentacle announced and you find some that works just stick with that until it stops working and then find something new and you’re just kind of going off of what the next operators is you know is running with and kind of finding out whatever their edges anyways. Right now we do have a pretty damn good one as Bitcoin has been getting rejected by this trend line ever since February 9th when Bitcoin was quite literally all the way over here at about 10000 bucks a little bit north of 10000 bucks so got that high right there. Then that high is next. Our. The next guy that got that guy rejected on this trend line and was back on over here in March right here before the inevitable doom dropped from about 8000 down to forty five hundred if you want to call it that. And then once again hitting it hitting that trend line right here more recently at 67 50 ish region. Now I do believe that this probably is more more more time to play out. But I also believe that we’re kind of we’re you know we’re going to bounce off this trend line down around here and we’re going to be caught into a nice consolidation period and then have a resolution way may maybe in like mayor or some like that. What is next month is March April May 4th. That’s that’s too far away. Well fair enough. This market probably gets slowed down. It has been quite volatile recently and well after volatile expands and it contracts anyways this trend line coming down around the edge of the bull sorry edge of the bearish control zone is quite nice as well as we typically do see some counter time pressure there and also connected with some very important lows coming in from our bouncy bounce right here from about eighty five to nine five thousand dollar move then. But then right after that we got this little side note not that bounce right there. This this this one right here from 39 all the way to 58. Jesus Christ. 2004 move. Then again right after that right here around 45 all the way up to I mean really 66 and then now we are kind of caught in a range. So I do like that three touches does make a trend. And we have three on both sides and I really really really really really like that. Anyways I would suggest that we do have momentum to begin to the downside here and it does help me kind of round out my bias to the downside also 12 hour RSI breaking its rise in front of the downside before price action by the way. This is the value of looking at the momentum also which I do put a shit ton of weight on formations within those and what it what happens after we break the rising down of the downside we’re back below the exponential we’re testing you around the edge of the bash control zone and we might have a small bouncy bounce here but once we start closing RSA twelve our RSI into this region I would look for price action to fall through as well. Well we’ll save it for later anyways anyways. Okay cool so what else do I want to talk about while we’re here. Let’s actually go now to some fundamentals for this or sorry. No before we do that let’s talk about a little bit more directly towards the people who are saying that the lows are in because bitcoin can’t go lower bro. This is your hedge against the financial collapse and everyone who buys bitcoin is going to be rich by doing nothing and then you also just have to huddle it until you’re dead because that’s the way that. I think that’s the way that Hollars thinks like I’m some guy less. Last night in the Twitch chat and I don’t mean to pick on this person but I’m just curious what he was saying that I will Hoddle who’s asking Should I buy Bitcoin it’s like there’s never a good answer for that because I can’t know anything about you and your risk tolerance and your preferences and what you’re even trying to do with that. But I basically asked him like I basically said that and they said I’m just Look I’m not going to I’m not going to sell it I’ll hold it till the day that I died. Like what then what’s the point. I mean I don’t think the world’s gonna go to a bitcoin standard anytime soon. I think that bitcoin has its place in this world but you’re not going be able to use it if you just hold on to it. So I don’t know. I don’t know. Fair enough. Would you also be interested in silver. No just kidding. Anyways here’s the big thing with with this as well if we do start see the daily Stokes get tired here and start and start crawl back down that would be another good indication that we will come back down at low 5000 as well anyways. Looking at daily RSI what do we see more or less toppy looks like it once come back down a little bit but other than that I’m not seeing anything too obvious. More importantly let’s now or do I want to get on over to that. Mm hmm. Where do I want to take this next we want should we have even talked about the lower term time frames. You know let’s talk about the lower term time frames then we’ll talk about the long term stuff but before but now what we’ll say we’ll say that for the long term stuff. Okay cool. Let’s go back down the lower term timeframes for our really nothing’s changed here since yesterday is just we’re kind of playing this out a little bit more. It’s actually good orgy tax chart as sort of a more condensed. But as far as this goes right here we did hit our lowest point of this run we and we dig it out and we did get essentially a rejection of the upside as well. Or I was saying 60 400 we got six 30. Close enough is close enough. My only opinion is it’s just is that this is very low timeframe stuff and doesn’t really resolve the whole picture. Only the short term the medium term time frames actually do resolve some pretty big moves. And that would be below this blue box right here or above this area right here which will actually put in a blue box as well just to kind of to note that it is a little bit more important but also very relevant current price action because we’re quite far away. And then of course the ones that the this guy right here and this guy right here only lower term time frame stuff if we do break this one right here I do believe that we will see that full on move all the way down to meet this guy about fifty nine hundred fifty nine fifty ish region and probably another short term time frame bounce there. However I do think that that bounce and well we’ll get sold into overtime or at least likely and I’d look for a break of this region fifty nine fifty and then we can talk about you know more fun talk to the downside by the same token to the upside. This trend line right here we can actually move it down just a smidgen more in line with her last week high right here and that’s around 60. Let’s call it 63 50 ish region if Bitcoin does start to even just trade back above there again I would look for extension all the way up here to test this blue box territory but this blue box territory does not change anything or so it doesn’t really change anything for the for the higher term conference but it does for the medium term time frames and if we do actually break back about this region which is sixty seven fifty sixty eight hundred if you’re a little more conservative I would look for full and move all the way up here which would you consider there a Tesla topside trend line somewhere right around get rid of this one it’s not relevant either right now some are right around about seventy two hundred some three hundred ish region which is very very important in bitcoin still is a chance to do that to be fair bulls still could pull through here although I think that looking at the underline Mark dynamics I think it’s unlikely and we’ll look at probabilities and just second as well but if Bitcoin were to close above this region I just want to show that I would actually immediately get long term bullish once again the reason being because bitcoin would finally be back above the yellow 21 century average on the monthly which as of right now we are clean thousand dollars below more that a little bit more than a thousand dollars below its right now at about twenty three hundred. That is the importance of the 79 interest number from a monthly closing basis of which we get a monthly close in two days and while thousand dollar move in two days is actually not not that crazy for bitcoin but again it has to actually do it as long as we’re below there I am bearish long term and here’s the thing Bitcoin loved to play off that 21 on the on the monthly we can go all the way back down to the genesis chart on B Lux index and anytime that that that price action is above the twenty one were generally bullish especially as long as it has a positive slope a time that we’re below we’re generally bearish especially as it has a negative slope you know you can you can just eyeball this one out very very simple. This is something that I use as well when I was a professional market maker to judge if a stock was long term bearish or bullish and kind of like how to play it and how to angle it long term but for bitcoin it does seem to work pretty damn well as well and I would imagine that’s gonna work even better as more and more time transpires in this as it gets more and more mature anyways. Okay cool so now that we’ve got the lower term time frames either way that was fast is easy. Let’s actually look at momentum also just because actually are they actually are kind of painting a different picture. We do see for our Stokes technically up right now I don’t think that this holds. I actually do think that is going to come down sooner rather than later but that’s just my opinion it’s irrelevant you know. If it turns back around on the short term time frames I don’t. Like I said I don’t have too much of a strong pin on that. It’s only if it breaks you know these these levels right here sixty six three fifty the upside or a sixty one to the downside. Even on like a low time frame close is probably good enough. And then we could target those moves a little bit deeper into the blue box territories right here and right here respectfully speaking we do have an Aldi death cross so you know Bitcoin’s gonna be our damn floor. No just kidding silliness. But more importantly what what was the next point I was gonna get on. Yes. OK. So momentum also. So we looked at the for hour for our our side does say that we have some more downside here. We are met. We’re not making any evidence plays anytime soon as you can see. Let me get rid of this one because it’s not. I mean it is relevant but it’s not really for this time frame. You know this this looks weak to me. Let’s look at the three our three looks weak to me as well. We’ll be reading or could could create some divergence though to our day get some divergence but I believe that’s already played out. Yes indeed it did all the way from sixty six thousand side 6000 all the way up to sixty three point three in it all I move out of 6000 price points from a three hour total time frame that’s 5 percent move that’s incredible. It’s fucking incredible. This is fucking This is fucking I mean that’s a Saturday we have 5 percent we’ve just fucking insane day traders come on over to bitcoin this is amazing. Anyways hourly look looking at stocks we are rejecting the Bush trolls coming down you know this doth sense as well as getting in then two hours well we do have a nice trend line forming right here which is likely going to give a little bit of harassment price action but could also but but also doesn’t play that we might spend a little bit of time going sideways if we let the catch up anyways that gets lower time for us pretty damn well again to wrap it up this area right here for short term sixty one hundred if we break that to the downside I’ll be looking for a move back down here to like fifty nine horrible call it I do think that is likely to happen and we can look at probabilities and that can go and then we see 63 50 the upside that would initiate a move back up here towards sixty and 68 and then the critical areas really are these blue boxes with a break which is gonna initiate you know much more long term moves both to the upside and the downside respectfully speaking so let’s go see the probability of these but with respect to a stock of all to the percentile and the twelve hour has been so phenomenally accurately accurate recently I don’t know why this one’s more accurate than the daily but I have a theory but it doesn’t really matter because who gives a fuck what my theory is anyways more importantly we can’t see that the probabilities are very likely gonna be angled on the downside here but let’s let’s actually do it right in so we can look at exactly what the probability breaking sixty one as for the low term time frames on the next twelve hour total closure which is going to be 43 percent pretty damn high pretty fucking high to be quite exact actually into the upside we had on the very low time frames again very very very very low timeframe so not all that relevant. We’ll look at the medium term time frame. Critical markers in a second here but sad but look into the upside. Little bit significantly less actually about a little bit less than 29 percent which is still relatively high I mean anything above 25 percent is is considerable. It’s within the realm of possibility and remember like we’re looking at a continuous market here so if something that’s a 40 percent or 30 percent chance to play out and we are looking at you know 3 different candle closures then Well since we’re speaking you should be point out that move or Lethem makes sense for you know for 30 percent essentially a 30 percent probability anyways. Now now that we have those low term time frames technically speaking the probabilities are on the lows are intense in the downside. But remember that doesn’t matter for the medium term time frames only the short term. So let’s go and check out what it would be for the low time frames outside the medium term time frames that I’m gonna call it fifty nine hundred just because I want to be a little bit more on the conservative side here and that as you can see you can just eyeball it it’s right at the bottom side of the first aviation so it’s gonna be around a 60 percent chance this one gonna be a little bit a little bit more than that actually twenty one and a half percent chance of we actually do close this next twelve hour Delta below that crazy but below that critical area which I don’t think is happening on a daily though that’s where I think things could actually really angled down here as we do see the probability if you want to call these cones you might call them rings or whatever the fuck you want to call them angling down once again that actually does have about a thirty four and a quarter percent probability to happen on the next day we did a closure which can be the weekly closure which is really really important. And then of course we can look at the top side as well which should actually be pretty decently sized here. We’ll call it sixty eight hundred just because it’s a more conservative number and we did the same thing for the downside and less than less than an 80 percent chance happen here. So within the realm of possibility but not the highest probability outcome and and of course we go down to a twelve it’s going to be significantly less I imagine. Yeah. Three and a half percent on the next twelve our total closure in five hours and four minutes and five seconds. So yeah. Probabilities on the downside right now which is starting to line up more and more with my analysis and then more importantly especially on the 12 hour we do see that the that the rings are starting to line up with with the critical areas once again which I really really like we see the first aviation to the downside showing 59 20 ish region which is right in line with that and to the upside we see about 6 50 but that’s not the important one. It’s really this guy right here at the second celebration which is less than a two and a half percent chance single cited above there. So it is more like that we go to the downside right here from a. From a mathematical perspective as well. And we can also check out the underlying markdown or actually. Okay. So. So now that we’ve got all of the low term time frame stuff bullshit out of the way. What I really should say now let’s talk about high term time frame. So we spoke a little bit about the monthly I think that kind of. Well actually let’s do a little bit more of a deep dive on the monthly monthly Stokes rejected the Bush controls on two months ago in October or not two months ago but in October 2019 and looks like they are freshly minted to the downside again. It’s got you know it’s a long time from now until the end of the month closed till another two days. But as it is right now that’s not that’s not good. And then. And then monthly RSI here is concerning. I do believe as we did break below and we’re holding well below the exponential which you really do not like. And after one two three tests into the bearish control zone I fear that the next test might might leave us stuck in there for a while. So this can get much much much much much worse. If that were to happen of course that hasn’t happened just yet. And also we’re going to be doing some that we only do four times a year we’re gonna be closing the quarterly chart as well the triple monthly and the triple monthly actually is not that bad. And if the triple monthly close above the 10 simple which is which is actually 70 300 as well. This would be phenomenally bullish. So you know take you know take it as you will that you know that is in the car. So if Bitcoin were to pull a nice fake out here and move back about 20 300 massively massively fucking bullish special on a multi dollar closure and it is possible to be fair like the properties aren’t that far off it’s unlikely but it’s it’s not that far off I am no good. So the downside here I I’m bash and I am and I’m still holding a little bit of my short from two days ago it was like 67 69 maybe 60 next I like that number I don’t know. But we did we did it on Twitch. So what. Whatever it was then still got a little bit on that although I have covered it mostly was short put so I do like that I like to take profit with those with those daily options just glorious gloriously gloriously overpriced options options were created to be sold as the saying goes anyways that is secret information that I shouldn’t be saying. Okay cool. So what else shall we say. What should we look at here while we’re on the tired term time. Go check out the weekly we do have a weekly close coming in tonight. There is a couple of obvious things for the weekly close if the weekly closes below the two minute expansion and average that would be incredibly bearish. That is currently at fifty nine hundred. That also that number also very Jordan of course as at the bottom cites part of the rising channel though the weekly closed coming in at 8 p.m. Eastern Time I believe it is or at least or 0 0 UTC. That’s actually easier to say midnight UTC whatever the fuck that means. So if we did close below 50 900 that would be the most obvious thing for playing out more downside back down to the low five thousands and very likely below that over time. I mean should if we close the weekly below 55 50 the turn it’s simple that would be that would be pretty nasty as well but I don’t think about that I don’t think that we do that today. Also while we’re while we’re on here on the weekly if we do close anything like this this is going to look like a rejection of the yellow 21 and the green 55 cross cross that is current right now. Just take everything else off so that we can focus in on this baby. As as this cross careen right here and again if you if you are in the Today programme reference the EMEA model right now this is very very very very important as you might see this play out in front of your very eyes especially if we see this next to this next weekly closure anywhere below 6000 can be catastrophic. And and one was last and we saw this one happen. Oh it looks very similar to the death cross that we saw on the two day isn’t it. Now obviously this one’s gonna be a little more formidable as it is a higher type higher term time frame but similar results going all the way from sixty nine hundred to seven years to thirty one hundred ish region. We do have one example other than that in the history of Bitcoin back on over here pretty much the same thing as we saw on the two day as well so I do like that and they should naturally line up but some bites. But just showing that if you know bitcoin does confirm this is a local high. Basically this this this last weeks of price action than I would expect that to really have some major implications with price action to the downside once again. We also do see that weekly Stokes are nose diving right here and we got that we got a similar trend line governing our lows thus far going all the way back to February of 2019. Like literally more than a year ago on this trend line right here by the way so that that trend line helps head up this flow at 30 hundred this low right here at thirty three hundred. This I think there is another one right here before this three thousand dollar pump and another one right here before this 4000 dollar pump and then while you can see that that trend line is coming in much much lower on price action. So if we did if we if we are going to come back down and meet it and play at this cemetery on this market then we got some well we got we got a lot of time to play on the weekly. Not only that let’s go back down to the daily so the daily on Bitcoin. We’ve been we’ve been seeing this as well or we and we’ve been monitoring this as well and perhaps and perhaps perhaps other people out there as well. Not really focused on that one right now. Hey where are you going. Okay. Elsa’s wearing like full on sweatpants. Anyways anyways so bitcoin on a macro scale and even on a major scale has never had a major reversal without playing out bullish divergence on the daily. And I’m talking about reversal it you know four four four for macro either market cycle or just long term. And what do we see on this. Well do we have any bullish Chevron’s coming off a current low. No absolutely not. There is no bullish evidence at all whatsoever even on this major low right here which was not a mark like a low but was a major low we had two drives one to this one right here before this three thousand dollar pump one two three drives in works from the top as well. By the way on our last market cycle low in 2010 late 2018 One two three drives plenty plenty of examples right here in 2018 on you know know these failed rallies and then there’s several others in the past which you are free to look at yourself which I which I’ll just you know don’t trust me I just you know verify yourself and then yeah. Fair enough anyways. Okay cool. So with that said you know it you know is the case for a bitcoin bottom you know that strong here. I would say. No I don’t think that we’ve seen the bottom. If we go over here to some fundamentals good you’ve got some fundamentals baby already 30 minutes deep into this video holy shit this one’s a long one. This is the bitcoin MBP so out now I’ve not been using this one for a long time but there has been some reworks on this and I do believe that there are some relevant things to be looking at right now that are interesting. Now I don’t put that much faith in this and I don’t put that much weight on this. And I think that the creator’s results kind of speak for himself and that’s kind of like leave that where it is. But I do think that it’s interesting that we can’t look at some fundamentals here that would suggest that we have unlikely seen the low on the market cycle anytime that bitcoins made a mark cycle low or even like a major low. We see the end BTC will come up well below or least a little bit below the pink zone right here called in with this major low right here correlated with this with these with these actually these are not even market like lows. These are just major lows but you can see them all throughout the history of Bitcoin. Again both major lows and some market cycle lows mixed in there. However more recently in 30 100 we actually did not get below that region at at that last up to the downside at 4000. We didn’t get anywhere near that region. So is it likely that bitcoin has bottomed out here. No. From a fundamental perspective. Not really. And we can go back to the bitcoin view OP ratio how many times we looked at this too many times. But I’ll go over one more time as calm as we do see that we have the same signature that we’ve seen many times in the past many many times in the past before major mass of doom drops and you find that we get the purple and the pink and below where my cross currently is right now. Think of that as a nice regression and the purple leading the pink back down below there which is almost about to happen again as we do see the pink is a little bit above right now. Then we have played out 70 percent draw downs before. What I’m talking about is right here. You see this. You see this move right here that correlates with the last major move from about 10 3 all the way down to 6 5. You see the one you see the one before that right and over here happens from. Well basically the high of 20000 down to six. And then again right here from. Well about 6000 down to 3000. Sounds familiar. Right. Then we have another example right here in 2014 right here on this bull trap going from here to here another 70 percent move. And we have this one right here on this on this high right on this parabolic high going all the way from here to here. I don’t know the price numbers is off my head. Then again right here and again right here and you can again watch these 1 3 4 for yourselves. But more importantly we have you know perhaps the same signal in the making which can be confirmed as early as today. Now we can go back to those examples and kind of measure them out to see what that has produced in the past with regards to the bitcoin or the bitcoin view OP ratio which we had an example right here. That’s a 40 percent move to the downside. We had an example right here we know that this one’s like 50 percent. We had another example right here at the height. Twenty thousand bucks. Sixty nine percent. Nice great no timing for that was way back on over here on this bull trap. Do you remember right here going all the way down 77 percent. Kind of a little bit of an outlier them. Then we had this guy right here next low 66 percent. We had this guy right here last night and next low 77 percent. And then like a knife someone back on over here which we won’t even focus on because fuck it I don’t wanna piss off the moon boys too much although it’s it is kind of it is kind of fun. It’s also gonna be fun to piss off the doom boys too. I don’t necessarily think that bitcoin is going completely to the gutter. I think that I think that still can be relevant long term but this can take you know decades to play out really. If you are a believer in Bitcoin anyways. Okay. So we spoke about all that. Um what else what other pictures do we want to be painting. Do we have anything to be looking out on the biweekly perhaps. Hashtag gave for T.A.. Not really no not not really no. I’m not really getting too much from this chart. It’s just put back on all the major revamp just in case. Mm hmm. Not really. Not really. So fair enough. I’m wonder if we have any dual signals building up as well. Now we did. We did see a three hour dual cell signal play out though running over here which we spoke about on twitch a few days ago right here at the high at sixty seven so nice 700 on move top to bottom thus far. Not better than that to be of any signals building right now. Not really. No not really. Don’t think so I’m gonna take some patients for the next big one but some either a dual bison on the low or a or at least daily bullish divergence on a low and then maybe when I have a low but until then I’m overall bearish. I mean I’m overall bearish especially as long as Bitcoin’s below sixty eight hundred that loss at a local high read them. Do you have anything to look at the three day not. Songs are below the and it’s simple not good. We even we’ve been closed the last three day dollar below the 3 7 7 so it’s a little bit of a rejection as well. Again not you know not not the picture of health and fitness here. Okay cool. Let’s go check out we all. There’s nothing to update on traditional markets as they’re not trading today obviously. Let’s go check out a couple of the top sheet coins and then some this baby off because I want to get to gaming. Let’s see Mr. beta all looks like garbage. But Mrs. like Wayne ugly. Stellar. Okay. Not so stellar ripple ripple actually looks OK actually ripples probably the most bullish looking one of the bunch. And looks like con wants to take a leg up to 20 cents. And I’m not even and I’m not joking. But will it do that. Bitcoin comes down very unlikely and usually ripples one of the last ones to rally. If you remember in 2018 I think there’s a really good example of that. Yes. No no no. Tron. No. Let’s see. What about like Link. You know one of the one of the traditionally more strong ones now kind of losing its luster here as well as wants to swallow about 234. I am not a fan of it. If you could pop back above two to an hour bucks I’d be very bullish on it at least for a move back up to the prior high rounds like 384 bucks. But right now it looks like it’s falling the rest of the market not going to be an outlier at least at least that’s what it looks like right now. So yeah. As far as bitcoin goes we’ll wrap this bitch up right now. Overall very very short term time frames. Relevant areas at least for myself. This is not finished by my French advisor but sixty three fifty. The upside would initiate a move back up towards like 67 68 so pretty damn pretty damn tradable right there by the same token closing an even like an hourly Delta below like 60 100. I would look for an extension all the way down to 59 maybe 59 50 some like that. That’s where things actually can change. Obviously above 68 hundreds fled to the north side. I’d look for an extension to 73. That’s where the monthly picture starts to change around much much more and I get very very bullish. Below here and I want that to be no surprise you know right now. Obviously my bias is bearish my bias will change to bullish above here and in would moderately change above here actually as well above 68. Just because well we’re so close to the end of the month close that you know getting back into that region would more or less start to really look interesting. Anyways breaking this guy here to the downside 59 hydro call it you know I do think that there’s been that there’d be bounce along the way but ultimately speaking. Technically speaking there is a measurement pointing all the way down to about forty two hundred ish region anyways. That’s going to do it for right now this video’s already 40 minutes long. I want to wish you well once again on this and I stuck to your Sunday morning. I did not test to see if I’m recording or not Mike’s working. I don’t actually Oh shit. Is it working. I think it I think it is working but. But I’ll be signing off now. I’ll be signing twitch in a little bit and you need some food first and then and then it’s and then it’s game time watching some price action. Maybe we might even see some moves today which would be really really really really really cool. Anyways take care. And until next time.

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