#anyway its finally out of my hands rfnruifne;ndxwioux

[jonsnowunemploymentera]

I rarely speculate on Patchface’s seemingly prophetic jingles because, unless they refer to past events, it’s always a challenging exercise to parse out what they might mean. However, a few things stuck out to me as I was revisiting the ACoK prologue, especially when considering how this chapter works as a narrative mirror to Dany X, the AGoT prologue, and other chapters that come later in the series.

ACoK’s prologue takes place in Dragonstone, where Maester Cressen looks at the red comet in the sky and considers it an omen—"prophesies in the sky", as he calls it. This in itself isn’t particularly remarkable, as most characters who see the comet interpret it as a sign of something supernatural. Then, Shireen and her bizarre fool, Patchface, enter.

Shireen wants to see the raven that recently arrived from the Citadel—a white raven that marks the end of the longest summer in recorded memory. This, Cressen acknowledges, is certainly noteworthy.

And yet . . . and yet . . . the comet burned even by day now, while pale grey steam rose from the hot vents of Dragonmont behind the castle, and yestermorn a white raven had brought word from the Citadel itself, word long-expected but no less fearful for all that, word of summer’s end. Omens, all. Too many to deny. What does it all mean? he wanted to cry.

And Cressen is right; all of these are omens connected to prophecy. According to prophecy, the end of a long summer precedes the rise of a hero destined to wake dragons from stone and fight the darkness.

“In ancient books of Asshai it is written that there will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him.” Davos I, ACoK

It is written in prophecy as well. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone. The bleeding star has come and gone, and Dragonstone is the place of smoke and salt.  Davos III, ASoS

“He is not dead. Stannis is the Lord’s chosen, destined to lead the fight against the dark. I have seen it in the flames, read of it in ancient prophecy. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone. Dragon-stone is the place of smoke and salt.” Jon X, ADWD

The omens that unsettle old Master Cressen foretell the birth of a hero of fire. Daenerys Targaryen, in the chapter that directly precedes this prologue (Dany X, AGoT), became that hero when she emerged from Drogo's pyre as "the Unburnt" and "the Mother of Dragons".

It is important to note that Dany X is a direct narrative parallel to the AGoT prologue, where creature of ice were seen again. The return of ice demanded the birth of fire, as all things must remain in balance. And Maester Cressen makes note of this as well,

The smallfolk said that a long summer meant an even longer winter […]

As a mirror to the AGoT prologue and Dany X, the ACoK prologue is full of references to Azor Ahai and the Long Night—too many to ignore. What’s particularly interesting is how this prologue circles back to a motif first introduced in Dany X: the birth of dragons. This comes to the forefront when Patchface utters his first prophecy in the series, which leads to an intriguing conversation between Cressen and Shireen about dragons coming to life; this conversation is occasionally interrupted by more cryptic jingles from the fool.

The fool turned his patched and piebald head to watch Pylos climb the steep iron steps to the rookery. His bells rang with the motion. “Under the sea, the birds have scales for feathers,” he said, clang-a-langing. “I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.”

Before I proceed, I want to address my thoughts on the phrase "under the sea". I subscribe to the theory that Patchface's prophetic ability was awakened because he drowned and was brought back to life. After his "death" at sea, he became an emissary of the Drowned God.

The boy washed up on the third day. Maester Cressen had come down with the rest, to help put names to the dead. When they found the fool he was naked, his skin white and wrinkled and powdered with wet sand. Cressen had thought him another corpse, but when Jommy grabbed his ankles to drag him off to the burial wagon, the boy coughed water and sat up. To his dying day, Jommy had sworn that Patchface’s flesh was clammy cold. No one ever explained those two days the fool had been lost in the sea. The fisherfolk liked to say a mermaid had taught him to breathe water in return for his seed. 

Thus, “under the sea” could refer to the process of dying and being reborn; note that this phrase often appears narratively as an accompaniment to talk of death. More generally, "under the sea" could represent a state in which suspended life is reanimated. Keeping this in mind, the image of birds having scales for feathers “under the sea” refers to dragons, which exist as suspended life forms encased in stone until they are brought to life

The conversation between Cressen and Shireen that directly follows Patchface’s first jingle continues the theme of stone dragons coming to life.

“Sit with me, child.” Cressen beckoned her closer. “This is early to come calling, scarce past dawn. You should be snug in your bed.” “I had bad dreams,” Shireen told him. “About the dragons. They were coming to eat me.”

Though Cressen tries to assuage her fears by telling her that dragons carved from stone cannot be brought to life, Shireen aptly remarks on the significance of the comet in the sky.

“What about the thing in the sky? Dalla and Matrice were talking by the well, and Dalla said she heard the red woman tell Mother that it was dragonsbreath. If the dragons are breathing, doesn’t that mean they are coming to life?”

Dany X proved that stone dragons have indeed been born. But Daenerys is the least of Shireen's worries. While her dragon-related nightmares are tied to Azor Ahai and the prophecy of his coming, it is her own father she must truly fear.

What’s truly puzzling, however, is Patchface’s next jingle, uttered as Cressen and Shireen turn their discussion toward the end of the long summer.

Patchface rang his bells. “It is always summer under the sea,” he intoned. “The merwives wear nennymoans in their hair and weave gowns of silver seaweed. I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.”

In a word, this is nonsense. "Nennymoans" don’t exist and are never mentioned again after this chapter. The term doesn’t refer to anything in the real world either. So, what exactly is Patchface talking about? I’ll have to take some liberties here to try and tease out the meaning behind this.

"Nennymoans," as a few fans have suggested, could refer to anemones. An anemone could be one of two things: a multicolored flower in the buttercup family that blooms in spring or fall, or a multicolored sea creature that resembles these flowers and grows in the depths of the ocean. Given that this chapter centers on the Long Night and dragons, this jingle likely plays into those themes.

Anemones, in whatever form, are tied to the cycle of life and death:

Greek legends say that Anemos, the Wind, sends his namesakes the Anemones in the earliest spring days as the heralds of his coming. […] Greek myth gives the anemone two meanings, the arrival of spring breezes and the loss of a loved one to death […] (Flower Meanings: Anemone)

This cycle of life and death is central to the Ironborn belief: “What is dead may never die, but rises again, harder and stronger”. With spring winds—or flowers—in their hair, the mermaids become agents of this process.

This cycle of life and death is also closely related to the waking of dragons:

She heard a crack, the sound of shattering stone. The platform of wood and brush and grass began to shift and collapse in upon itself. Bits of burning wood slid down at her, and Dany was showered with ash and cinders. And something else came crashing down, bouncing and rolling, to land at her feet; a chunk of curved rock, pale and veined with gold, broken and smoking. The roaring filled the world, yet dimly through the firefall Dany heard women shriek and children cry out in wonder. Only death can pay for life. Dany X, AGoT

Dragons are also tied to the Lands of the Long Summer, which mirror the Lands of Always Winter—a place of death. Ice versus fire, death versus life, dragons or Others. This is the essence of the Long Night.

Other clues in the text help us understand the mermaids’ silver gowns:

On the crown of the hill four-and-forty monstrous stone ribs rose from the earth like the trunks of great pale trees. The sight made Aeron’s heart beat faster. Nagga had been the first sea dragon, the mightiest ever to rise from the waves. She fed on krakens and leviathans and drowned whole islands in her wrath, yet the Grey King had slain her and the Drowned God had changed her bones to stone so that men might never cease to wonder at the courage of the first of kings. Nagga’s ribs became the beams and pillars of his longhall, just as her jaws became his throne. For a thousand years and seven he reigned here, Aeron recalled. Here he took his mermaid wife and planned his wars against the Storm God. From here he ruled both stone and salt, wearing robes of woven seaweed and a tall pale crown made from Nagga’s teeth. The Drowned Man, AFFC

The only other time seaweed is woven into cloth is in Aeron’s thoughts, as he reflects on the Grey King, the legendary figure who slew the fire-breathing sea dragon Nagga. The Grey King wore gowns of seaweed and decorated his hall in a similar fashion. This was where his warriors feasted:

But that was in the dawn of days, when mighty men still dwelt on earth and sea. The hall had been warmed by Nagga’s living fire, which the Grey King had made his thrall. On its walls hung tapestries woven from silver seaweed most pleasing to the eyes. The Grey King’s warriors had feasted on the bounty of the sea at a table in the shape of a great starfish, whilst seated upon thrones carved from mother-of-pearl. Gone, all the glory gone. Men were smaller now. Their lives had grown short. The Storm God drowned Nagga’s fire after the Grey King’s death, the chairs and tapestries had been stolen, the roof and walls had rotted away. Even the Grey King’s great throne of fangs had been swallowed by the sea. Only Nagga’s bones endured to remind the ironborn of all the wonder that had been. The Drowned Man, AFFC

Aeron believes that those who serve the Drowned God will be taken to feast in his halls when they die (The Prophet, AFFC; The Foresaken, TWoW). This evokes imagery of Valhalla and its inhabitants, the Einherjar—dead warriors who are destined to be reborn to fight in the final battle during Ragnarok. The Valkyries, who take the dead to Valhalla, parallel the mermaids mentioned in Patchface’s jingle. Both partake in the cycle of life and death, acting as agents of an apocalypse.

If we associate “under the sea” with the cycle of death and rebirth, then gowns of silver seaweed might symbolize either armor or the more spectral funerary garments worn by the dead (or ghosts). The latter seems more likely, given Shireen’s next line:

Shireen giggled. “I should like a gown of silver seaweed.”

This is a child’s innocent wish—but tragically, it will come true. Shireen will receive her silver gown, her funerary garment, soon. The next line seals her fate and is what inspired this post in the first place:

“Under the sea, it snows up,” said the fool, “and the rain is dry as bone. I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.”

It puzzled me for quite some time what Patchface was referring to here. But given that this chapter focuses on the Long Night and dragons, this jingle is clearly referencing the latter—especially considering it directly follows Shireen’s unwitting prophecy of her impending death for the sake of a dragon.

On the surface, this third jingle doesn’t seem connected to the birth of dragons at all. However, remember that Azor Ahai will be born after a long summer, amidst “smoke and salt". And remember, this prologue is set on Dragonstone, which sits on the Dragonmount—a volcano where dragons once lay, where ash and smoke billow up (this detail will be important later). The jingle seems to describe the conditions that breed dragons! “Snow falls up… rain [is] dry as bone” clearly refers to “smoke and salt".

Up until this point, you’d likely think this jingle refers to Dany and her dragons—and you’d be right, but only partially. From this point forward, we see that Patchface’s jingles align closely with another character who is being positioned as Azor Ahai—Jon Snow.

Let’s revisit the second jingle about mermaids with “nennymoans” in their hair. It’s noteworthy that although Patchface often uses the sea as the backdrop for his prophecies, mermaids only appear twice in the entire series. The first instance is in this prologue, where they seem to evoke imagery of life after death. The second instance occurs just before a pivotal moment—before a Targaryen prince, a dragon, is put to sleep.

Patchface jumped up. “I will lead it!” His bells rang merrily. “We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh.” Jon XIII, ADWD

For context, this prophecy follows Jon’s announcement of his intent to lead the ranging beyond the Wall—a ranging that would surely lead him and his men to death’s door. Patchface’s assertion that “[they] will march into the sea and out again” could symbolize the process of wight-ification—a perverse form of new life springing forth after death.

The mention of seahorses is also intriguing. It could refer to serpentine sea creatures, which ties into the broader theme of dragons and their role in the cycle of life and death. Dragons serve as vehicles for new life after a period of death, a theme that is mirrored in Daenerys’s campaign in Slaver’s Bay. However, I’m also inclined to think of Kelpies—grey or white sea-horses that lure men and women to their death under the sea. The imagery of grey or white sea-horses calls to mind part of Patchface’s second jingle, where mermaids wove gowns of silver seaweed.

While I won’t speculate too much on the point about riding seahorses, it’s worth noting how Patchface’s third jingle relates to Jon Snow. This particular jingle, which references snow falling up, has two narrative parallels—and they complicate things quite a bit. The first parallel comes later in this prologue, just before Cressen meets his end:

Patchface sprawled half on top of him, motley fool’s face pressed close to his own. He had lost his tin helm with its antlers and bells. “Under the sea, you fall up,” he declared. “I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.” Giggling, the fool rolled off, bounded to his feet, and did a little dance.

The dichotomy here is fascinating. If the first mention of snow relates to the “smoke and salt” that provide the necessary elements for the birth of dragons, what does it mean when the focus shifts to Cressen himself? “You fall up” evokes the image of a person being lifted from the ground—resurrected. Where the first instance of snow falling up might reference the birth of dragons, this second instance could refer to the rise of their natural enemies, the wights.

That this second instance of “falling up” refers to the creation of wights—perversions of life after death—is further reinforced by the unsettling tune Patchface sings in the preceding paragraph.

Over the clatter of knife and plate and the low mutter of table talk, he heard Patchface singing, “… dance, my lord, dance my lord,” to the accompaniment of jangling cowbells. The same dreadful song he’d sung this morning. “The shadows come to stay, my lord, stay my lord, stay my lord.”

But this isn’t the first time Patchface sings this. When Shireen finally sees the white raven, Patchface unleashes his prophecy:

“Clever bird, clever man, clever clever fool,” said Patchface, jangling. “Oh, clever clever clever fool.” He began to sing. “The shadows come to dance, my lord, dance my lord, dance my lord,” he sang, hopping from one foot to the other and back again. “The shadows come to stay, my lord, stay my lord, stay my lord.” He jerked his head with each word, the bells in his antlers sending up a clangor.

I think it’s clear that the shadows Patchface refers to are the Others, who are often described as “white shadows” throughout the text. Remember, this chapter mirrors the AGoT prologue, which featured Waymar Royce’s confrontation with an Other—“dance with me, then", Waymar challenged. That was just before he died at the hands of the Other and rose as a wight. Shireen also states that Patchface began signing this tune only recently—perhaps once the comet became visible in the sky.

Jon Snow, a narrative parallel to Waymar, begins his twelfth chapter of ADWD fighting the dead atop the Wall. Though his dream and its immediate aftermath suggest he will be victorious, the specter of death follows him until the next chapter, when he is assassinated by his own brothers. This sense of death lingers as he meets with Queen Selyse, Shireen, and Patchface in Jon XIII.

They found Her Grace sewing by the fire, whilst her fool danced about to music only he could hear, the cowbells on his antlers clanging. “The crow, the crow,” Patchface cried when he saw Jon. “Under the sea the crows are white as snow, I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.” Princess Shireen was curled up in a window seat, her hood drawn up to hide the worst of the greyscale that had disfigured her face. Jon XIII, ADWD

Other than the ACoK prologue, this is the only time snow is mentioned in Patchface’s prophecies. And this second instance is even more puzzling than the first. What does it mean for Jon, the crow, to be “white as snow”? If the first instance says “snow falls up", does that mean Jon, who is the snow, will rise?

The entirety of ADWD is centered around Jon’s impending death.

You are wrong. I have dreamed of your Wall, Jon Snow. Great was the lore that raised it, and great the spells locked beneath its ice. We walk beneath one of the hinges of the world.” Melisandre gazed up at it, her breath a warm moist cloud in the air. “This is my place as it is yours, and soon enough you may have grave need of me. Do not refuse my friendship, Jon. I have seen you in the storm, hard-pressed, with enemies on every side. You have so many enemies. Shall I tell you their names?” “I know their names.” “Do not be so certain.” The ruby at Melisandre’s throat gleamed red. “It is not the foes who curse you to your face that you must fear, but those who smile when you are looking and sharpen their knives when you turn your back. You would do well to keep your wolf close beside you. Ice, I see, and daggers in the dark. Blood frozen red and hard, and naked steel. It was very cold.” Jon I, ADWD

But, a key point is that Jon will return, for Melisandre has seen it in her flames.

Death, thought Melisandre. The skulls are death. The flames crackled softly, and in their crackling she heard the whispered name Jon Snow. His long face floated before her, limned in tongues of red and orange, appearing and disappearing again, a shadow half-seen behind a fluttering curtain. Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again.  Mel I, ADWD

But what’s interesting is that the language surrounding Jon’s death and rebirth mirrors the birth of dragons—“smoke and salt”, “snow fall[ing] up”, and “rain dry as bone” mirror the “ashes and cinders” in Mel’s visions of the boy.

And keep him away from the red woman. She knows who he is. She sees things in her fires.” Arya, he thought, hoping it was so. “Ashes and cinders.” “Kings and dragons.” Dragons again. For a moment Jon could almost see them too, coiling in the night, their dark wings outlined against a sea of flame.  Jon VIII, ADWD

Mel is the first and only person in the series to recite the prophecy of Azor Ahai being born amidst salt and smoke to wake dragons. In fact, she always precedes it with “I have seen it in the flames”. Though Daenerys fulfilled those requirements in her last AGoT chapter, it’s still noteworthy that the narrative continues to present this prophecy as something that is yet to reach full completion. From a Doylist perspective, you don’t repeat a motif if it is no longer relevant to the ongoing narrative, especially when it is presented in a particular context; in this case, as it’s continuously presented in Jon’s Dance arc.

Mel is the primary person in the current timeline who links the waking of dragons to Azor Ahai, and every time she looks for this hero, she sees Jon!

Yet now she could not even seem to find her king. I pray for a glimpse of Azor Ahai, and R’hllor shows me only Snow.  Mel I, ADWD

It’s striking that the last time the idea of dragons waking as part of Azor Ahai’s rise comes up in Jon X, just three chapters before his death.

Melisandre’s face darkened. “That creature is dangerous. Many a time I have glimpsed him in my flames. Sometimes there are skulls about him, and his lips are red with blood.” A wonder you haven’t had the poor man burned. All it would take was a word in the queen’s ear, and Patchface would feed her fires. “You see fools in your fire, but no hint of Stannis?” “When I search for him all I see is snow.” The same useless answer. […] “Would you know if the king was dead?” Jon asked the red priestess. “He is not dead. Stannis is the Lord’s chosen, destined to lead the fight against the dark. I have seen it in the flames, read of it in ancient prophecy. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone. Dragonstone is the place of smoke and salt.” Jon had heard all this before. “Stannis Baratheon was the Lord of Dragonstone, but he was not born there. He was born at Storm’s End, like his brothers.” He frowned. “And what of Mance? Is he lost as well? What do your fires show?” “The same, I fear. Only snow.” Snow. […] “You are seeing cinders dancing in the updraft.” “I am seeing skulls. And you. I see your face every time I look into the flames. The danger that I warned you of grows very close now.” “Daggers in the dark […]” Jon X, ADWD

This passage not only foreshadows Jon’s impending death, but once again, we see “cinders dancing in the updraft”—a phrase that echoes “snow falls up, and the rain is dry as bone". Both the ACoK prologue and this chapter discuss the waking of dragons, and in both, “snow” is linked to the conditions necessary for such an event. This raises interesting questions about Melisandre’s visions of “smoke and salt”—what exactly did she see?

Regardless, Jon is quite firmly wrapped up in the mysteries surrounding Azor Ahai and the waking of dragons. Not just in this chapter, but a common motif that comes up in his Dance arc is the aspect of sacrifice to wake dragons.

Burning dead children had ceased to trouble Jon Snow; live ones were another matter. Two kings to wake the dragon. The father first and then the son, so both die kings. The words had been murmured by one of the queen’s men as Maester Aemon had cleaned his wounds. Jon had tried to dismiss them as his fever talking. Aemon had demurred. “There is power in a king’s blood,” the old maester had warned, “and better men than Stannis have done worse things than this.” The king can be harsh and unforgiving, aye, but a babe still on the breast? Only a monster would give a living child to the flames. Jon I, ADWD

Much of this revolves around the sacrifice of a living child. Jon sends Mance’s son away with Gilly, believing he’s bypassed such a tragedy. But GRRM has confirmed that Stannis will sacrifice his own daughter, reinforcing the theme of royal blood as a powerful magical catalyst. The prophecies set in stone in the ACoK prologue through Patchface and Shireen are thus mirrored in Jon’s Dance arc.

What’s particularly interesting is how the idea of burning dead children to wake dragons is paralleled by Dany X, when Rhaego was placed in Drogo’s pyre, bringing dragons into the world and “rebirthing” Daenerys as Azor Ahai. Dany had her dragon eggs waiting to be brought to life, but at the Wall, there are no such eggs. So where will the dragon come from? Jon himself questions this:

“That I would speak to Stannis, though I doubt my words will sway him. A king’s first duty is to defend the realm, and Mance attacked it. His Grace is not like to forget that. My father used to say that Stannis Baratheon was a just man. No one has ever said he was forgiving.” Jon paused, frowning. “I would sooner take off Mance’s head myself. He was a man of the Night’s Watch, once. By rights, his life belongs to us.” “Pyp says that Lady Melisandre means to give him to the flames, to work some sorcery.” “Pyp should learn to hold his tongue. I have heard the same from others. King’s blood, to wake a dragon. Where Melisandre thinks to find a sleeping dragon, no one is quite sure. It’s nonsense. Mance’s blood is no more royal than mine own. He has never worn a crown nor sat a throne. He’s a brigand, nothing more. There’s no power in brigand’s blood.” Sam I, AFFC

As of Jon XIII, ADWD, there are no dragon eggs at the Wall. But what we do have is a Targaryen prince—Jon Snow—bleeding out in the snow, growing hard with cold as all memory of warmth flees from him (Bran III, AGoT). Jon himself is the dragon waiting to be woken, a “sleeping dragon” not of stone, but of blood and prophecy. Exactly how he will be woken remains a mystery, but we see a fascinating thread running from ACoK through ADWD regarding Jon’s role in the series’ central conflict.

In the ACoK prologue, Patchface sang of mermaids with spring in their hair, weaving funerary gowns. In ADWD, he sings of these same mermaids blowing seashells to announce the coming of those who have descended into the sea’s depths and emerged alive once more. How intriguing that both of these jingles are framed by discussions of dragons.

“A grey girl on a dying horse. Daggers in the dark. A promised prince, born in smoke and salt. It seems to me that you make nothing but mistakes, my lady. Where is Stannis? What of Rattleshirt and his spearwives? Where is my sister?” “All your questions shall be answered. Look to the skies, Lord Snow. And when you have your answers, send to me. Winter is almost upon us now. I am your only hope.” Jon XIII, ADWD

The first two prophecies have already come to pass. The third, however, still looms over the narrative. Yet, it too will soon reach completion. A crow has now become white as snow—dead. But as in Patchface’s prophecy, he will emerge from under the sea—a dragon reborn, the promised prince who will save his realm.