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arzuispolitical · 8 months ago

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indian here! i just wanna say, the major reasons the BJP lost this election don't have a lot to do with consolidation against fascism, but rather because the BJP's fascism has been actively screwing over the country for a decade now; unlike how y'alls' right wing wave is relatively recent.

first off, one of the many major reasons that the BJP's seat share decreased so drastically this election was because of rampant anti-incumbency everywhere; the BJP alone had been enjoying a supermajority for the past two elections (they both got over half the seats in parliament during the 2014 and 2019 elections). despite this, their reaction to COVID was so bad that some called it a "crime against humanity", they COMPLETELY fucked up handling the ethnic violence in manipur which lost them the northeastern vote, and their reaction to the cost-of-living crisis has been to do... nothing.

however, we need to keep in mind that despite ALL of the above - the BJP still got the most votes out of every other party (36% of the total vote share of roughly a billion). almost every single urban centre from delhi to mumbai voted for the BJP, which is in stark contrast to how cities tend to vote left wing in the US. most educated indians actually tend to vote FOR the BJP - this is because people who can afford a good education in india are typically sheltered enough from actual problems in the country that they legitimately can't tell the BJP are fascists and bad for this country. the social agenda of the BJP - aggressive hindu nationalism - STILL works for a lot of educated middle class indians including young people.

fascism in india is far from defeated and is still accepted as a valid ideology amongst educated, middle class citizens. most of the resistance against the BJP was from minorities and actual affected working class citizens who have to labour long hours during the worst heatwave the country's seen only to pay ridiculous prices for gas and other basic amenities. even then, the BJP swept multiple states AND held some of the largest leads over their opposing candidates in the election.

fascism in india will be alive and well until you people in the west organise and vote out your own fascists. just because we managed to cut down our ruling party to size doesn't mean the same will be true in your country. which means, you have to go out there and VOTE.

P.S. narendra modi is the prime minister, not the president. the president in India serves as a figurehead and has no real power.

take a moment to read indian election news!! india has voted against the fascist party. while they will resume government they will need to forge alliances and have lost multiple strong members of parliament. and all this despite them controlling the media! this is SUCH an important reminder that u shld never ever underestimate the power of a vote

#indpol #india

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odnewsin · 1 day ago

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BJP returns to power in Delhi after 26 years, sweeps away AAP; Historic, says PM Modi

The BJP on Saturday returned to power in Delhi after more than 26 years to sweep away the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party with a two-thirds majority on the back of a hyper localised campaign and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘AAP-da'(disaster) blitzkrieg. Adding to the ignominy of the AAP that was battling 10 years of anti-incumbency was the shocking defeat of former chief minister Arvind…

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news365timesindia · 2 days ago

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[ad_1] Paromita Das GG News Bureau New Delhi, 8th Feb. The Changing Political Landscape in Delhi As the Delhi Assembly Elections 2025 reach their final stage, all eyes are on the vote count, which is expected to determine whether the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will finally reclaim power in the national capital after 27 years. Exit polls have predicted a landslide victory for the BJP, signaling a potential end to the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) decade-long dominance under Arvind Kejriwal’s leadership. If these projections hold, Delhi’s political landscape is on the brink of a historic transformation, with BJP making a resounding comeback. However, past elections have shown that exit polls do not always translate into final results, and AAP remains hopeful of defying predictions. The party, which has enjoyed significant voter trust in previous elections, dismisses the exit polls as misleading, pointing to its strong grassroots presence and welfare schemes. Meanwhile, BJP leaders are confident that Delhi voters have chosen change, bolstered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and the party’s focus on governance and infrastructure development. With the official results set to be declared today, Delhi’s voters, political analysts, and party workers await a decisive verdict that could reshape the capital’s future. Will BJP’s resurgence mark a new era for Delhi, or will AAP stage an unexpected comeback? The final outcome will determine the course of governance in the capital for the next five years. Exit Poll Analysis: Predicting BJP’s Big Win Several reputed agencies have released their exit poll projections, with most predicting a clear majority for BJP. Here’s a breakdown: Exit Poll BJP (Seats) AAP (Seats) Congress (Seats) P-Marq 39 21-31 0-1 Peoples Pulse 51-60 10-19 0 People’s Insight 40-44 25-29 0-2 Matrize 35-40 32-37 0-1 Chanakya 39-44 25-28 2-3 JVC 39-45 22-32 0-2 With 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly, the majority mark stands at 36. Almost all exit polls indicate that BJP will comfortably cross this threshold, with some even suggesting a landslide victory of over 50 seats. Why BJP Is Expected to Win: Key Factors Behind the Shift If BJP does manage to sweep the Delhi elections, it will mark a historic political comeback after nearly three decades. Several factors have contributed to this possible shift in voter sentiment: The Modi Factor and National Sentiment PM Narendra Modi’s popularity has been a game-changer in multiple state elections. The BJP’s success in the 2024 General Elections, coupled with Modi’s focus on Delhi’s infrastructural development, has resonated with voters. His personal brand of leadership, welfare schemes, and vision for Delhi have likely influenced the electorate. AAP’s Governance Fatigue and Controversies AAP’s 10-year rule in Delhi began with massive public support, but recent controversies have dented its image. Allegations of corruption, internal party conflicts, and Kejriwal’s confrontations with the Lieutenant Governor (LG) and central agencies have created political instability. Issues like the liquor policy scam and allegations of mismanagement in Delhi’s education and healthcare models have also weakened AAP’s standing. Anti-Incumbency and Voter Dissatisfaction After two consecutive terms, anti-incumbency sentiment appears to be rising against AAP. Issues like air pollution, water scarcity, traffic congestion, and irregularities in governance have contributed to growing dissatisfaction among Delhi’s residents. BJP’s Strong Election Machinery BJP’s extensive booth-level presence, targeted campaigning, and strategic use of social media have given it an edge. The party’s focus on Hindu voters, outreach to Delhi’s traders and business communities, and strong organizational structure have played a significant role in turning the tide. Congress’s Decline Benefitting BJP Congress has failed to remain relevant in Delhi politics since losing power to AAP in 2013.

Many traditional Congress voters have either shifted to AAP or BJP, further strengthening the latter’s position. AAP’s Counterattack: Can Kejriwal Defy the Predictions? Despite unfavorable exit poll projections, AAP isn’t giving up without a fight. The party has questioned the accuracy of these predictions, pointing to previous miscalculations in Delhi’s 2020 Assembly elections, where exit polls had underestimated AAP’s performance. AAP’s strategy moving forward will likely focus on: Highlighting its governance track record in education, health, and water-electricity subsidies. Presenting itself as a victim of BJP’s political attacks, particularly in cases like the liquor scam investigation. Mobilizing its core voter base, especially among lower-income groups and slum dwellers. While these efforts might help mitigate losses, exit polls indicate that AAP’s grip on Delhi is slipping. Congress: A Party in Decline Once the dominant force in Delhi politics, Congress has been reduced to irrelevance in the state. The party’s failure to rebuild its voter base and its lack of strong leadership have left it struggling to stay in the fight. With most exit polls predicting zero or a maximum of three seats, Congress seems unlikely to make a comeback in Delhi anytime soon. Implications of BJP’s Victory: What It Means for Delhi If BJP forms the government in Delhi, it will mark a new political chapter for the capital. Key changes could include: Stronger alignment with the central government, leading to better coordination on development projects. Reevaluation of AAP’s flagship policies, including subsidies on electricity and water. A new governance model, with BJP focusing on infrastructure, law and order, and economic growth. However, challenges will remain, particularly in addressing the expectations of Delhi’s residents and proving that BJP can deliver on its promises after 27 years out of power. Will Exit Polls Translate to Reality? While the exit poll results heavily favor BJP, it’s essential to remember that predictions don’t always match actual results. Several past elections have shown exit polls overestimating or underestimating parties’ performances. In 2015, exit polls predicted AAP would win around 40 seats, but the party secured a massive 67 out of 70 seats. In 2020, exit polls gave AAP around 50 seats, but it won 62 seats, proving even favorable predictions can be inaccurate. If AAP manages to retain power, it will be a major upset for BJP. However, if BJP’s projected victory materializes, it will be a historic political shift. Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Delhi As Delhi eagerly awaits the official results on February 8, the exit polls have set the stage for what could be a major political transformation. If BJP wins, it marks the end of AAP’s decade-long rule and a new political direction for Delhi. If AAP defies predictions, it will be a remarkable political comeback, reinforcing its stronghold in the capital. For Congress, the election remains a test of survival. Regardless of the outcome, these elections will shape Delhi’s governance, policies, and future political dynamics for years to come. The final results will ultimately reveal whether Delhi is ready for change or if AAP still commands the trust of its people. The post Delhi on the Brink of Change: Exit Polls Predict BJP’s Return After 27 Years, AAP Faces Tough Challenge appeared first on Global Governance News- Asia's First Bilingual News portal for Global News and Updates. [ad_2] Source link

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news365times · 2 days ago

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trendingnews19 · 2 days ago

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Last Updated:February 08, 2025, 13:53 ISTDelhi BJP CM Candidate: Anti-incumbency, corruption charges against top AAP leaders and Congress' improved performance in terms of vote share are being attributed to BJP's success in the cityThe AAP won 67 seats in 2015 and 62 seats in 2020. (Photo: PTI file)Delhi BJP CM Candidate: The 27-year-old power exile of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Delhi may be over as the trends suggest a clear victory for the ruling party at the Centre. The BJP has crossed the half-way mark while the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) tally is hovering around 30 seats.Anti-incumbency, corruption charges against top AAP leaders and Congress’ improved performance in terms of vote share are being attributed to BJP’s success in the city.Delhi Election Results 2025Here’s A List Of Contenders For Delhi CM Post If BJP Returns To PowerParvesh Sahib Singh VermaFormer MP Parvesh Sahib Singh Verma challenged AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal in New Delhi seat and emerged as the giant slayer. Verma, the son of former Delhi CM Sahib Singh Verma, entered into electoral politics in 2013 with a win from Mehrauli seat. He later won Lok Sabha elections from West Delhi seat in 2014 and 2019.Ramesh BidhuriBJP’s Ramesh Bidhuri, who made headlines earlier for controversial remarks, is among the top faces who can become the Chief Minister of Delhi.Bansuri SwarajFirst-time MP and veteran BJP leader’s daughter Bansuri Swaraj also emerged as the contender for the CM’s post. She won the New Delhi Lok Sabha seat, which was once held by Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani.Smriti IraniSmriti Irani, who emerged as the giant killer in 2019 Lok Sabha elections after defeating Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, was considering to contest the assembly election in Delhi. Though Irani did not get the ticket but she was involved in BJP’s poll campaign in the city, making him a contender for the CM.Dushyant GautamBJP’s national general secretary and Dalit leader Dushyant Gautam is also among the frontrunners for the CM’s post. He has been pitted against AAP’s Vishesh Ravi in Karol Bagh seat.News elections Who Will Be BJP CM Candidate In Delhi? Here's List Of Contenders As AAP Voted Out Of Power atOptions = 'key' : '6c396458fda3ada2fbfcbb375349ce34', 'format' : 'iframe', 'height' : 60, 'width' : 468, 'params' : ;

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tfgadgets · 4 months ago

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Infighting, Alliances, EVMs In Focus As Congress Reviews Shock Haryana Loss

The BJP defied exit polls and beat anti-incumbency to win a record third term in the state. New Delhi: Still reeling from its shock defeat in Haryana, the Congress held a high-level review meeting on Thursday to assess the possible reasons for the loss with a focus on learning lessons, given the impending elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Sources said infighting, the impact of not allying…

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bhaskarlive · 4 months ago

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Haryana CM Saini maybe retained after steering party to big victory

After a historic hat-trick of victories, Haryana caretaker Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, under whose leadership the party fought the high-octane electoral battle and overcome a 10-year anti-incumbency, may be retained as the CM.

CM Saini on Wednesday landed in Delhi and met Prime Minister Narendra Modi at his residence. The CM will also be meeting BJP’s top leaders in the national capital.

Source: bhaskarlive.in

#Haryana CM #Nayab Singh Saini #Haryana #haryana election 2024

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indizombie · 5 years ago

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In Delhi, we had the incredible sight of the incumbent Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal being forced to recite the Hanuman Chalisa. Shah on a daily basis challenged Kejriwal to come clean on his support to Shaheen Bagh. Finally, Kejriwal said if he had the power he would get it cleared in two hours. Shah and the BJP have already won as all other parties now tweak their strategies and campaigns on the new Hindutva pitch. All the Opposition parties in India are now shaky on secularism - we can call it the Shah effect.

Swati Chaturvedi, 'CAA-NRC protests: Shaheen Bagh and Biryani are anti-national', Gulf News

#Gulf News #Swati Chaturvedi #New Delhi #Arvind Kejriwal #Hanuman Chalisa #Amit Shah #Shaheen Bagh #India #BJP #Hindutva #Opposition parties #secularism #Shah effect

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southeastasianists · 5 years ago

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In the early 21st century, we see that a good part of the world is turning its back on diversity – and this goes beyond Southeast Asia. We see this in Europe, in India, and in the Americas. This trend manifests as a poisonous concoction of intolerance, ethno-nationalism, anti-immigrant sentiments, and populism. Globalization has contributed to this trend, as well as long-running religious enmities. One very good example of this trend is the ongoing Rohingya crisis.

The triumph of democracy following the end of the Cold War was expected by many across the world to usher in a free and golden age, but unfortunately it was not to be. A new genre of ‘democratic’ leaders came to the fore. To them, democracy was about elections, and that meant getting as many votes as you could, through any means. The two currents of democracy and intolerance intermingled and fed on each other, and far-right parties and governments came to power. Diversity is downgraded or denied outright.

The illiberal turn in a number of Southeast Asian countries, while being aimed at maintaining and expanding a party’s grip on state power, has been accompanied by intolerance, discrimination, repression and outright violence against what is essentially pluralism. The ruling National League for Democracy party in Myanmar has only token ethnic minority representation and none of its lawmakers are Muslim. Opposition parties, dissenting media and civil society are facing severe threats from incumbent establishments. Institutions of the dominant religion are taking on a bigger role in politics—sometimes in tandem or in collusion with the state. The primacy of the vote over that of the gun was regained at great cost. But now it means that political leaders are pandering more to interests of race and religion to get votes.

The Dual State

I have been describing the dual state in Myanmar for quite some time. Taking a deeper look, I would further elaborate by calling it ‘twin authoritarianisms’ or ‘authoritarianisms-in-tandem’: the civil as well as the military. It may sound unlikely, given that any authoritarian state is usually a monist entity. This shows that neither of the twin blocs are strong enough to obviate the other. But both sides come down hard on anything else they deem to be standing in their way – the media, minorities, civil society, activists and protesters.

For the Myanmar military that enjoyed near-absolute power for half a century, authoritarian and illiberal traits come naturally. One local analyst observes that at least the military is more consistent. But for the National League for Democracy, which spent the past three decades clamouring for all the noble virtues, its recent descent to baser sentiments comes as a rude shock to many (this writer excepted). All the institutions regarded as pillars of, and adjuncts to, liberal democracy are now under threat. If someone were to question the party on this, the blame would be glibly passed on to the obstructionist military. Of late it has become my task to gently disabuse people – both within the country and abroad – that this is not as neat as it sounds. The civilian party government has to shoulder part of the responsibility.

I have used the term ‘post-ideology’ to describe present-day Myanmar. In a country where the Left had been such a potent force, it is now difficult to identify a meaningful political party that can be classified as leftist. The Burma Socialist Programme Party in its later years cannot be seen as left anymore, and the Communist Party of Burma collapsed in 1989. In the absence of a sophisticated leftist politics, the way opened up for a swing to the Right. One sees parallels of this in Eastern Europe.

A further outcome is the rise of majoritarianism and the dawn of an electoral democracy. With an antiquated first-past-the-post electoral system, the politicians and generals know very well that if you have the ethnic and religious majority sewn up, you do not have to bother much about either election outcomes or the minorities.

The consequences of all these trends are many. With the collapse of ideology, the 70-year long civil war is now being waged against ethnic minorities. In other words, it has turned into a straight ethnic war. One sees in Rakhine, and for long in Kachin and Shan states, the accompanying disregard for civilian lives and the depths of brutality.

The Bamar government’s and military’s premise is that “a rising Bamar tide will lift all ethnic boats”, but in reality, that isn’t the case.

Now at the end of the second decade of the 21st century, the NLD government is dutifully carrying on what had been done since the one-party state—rolling out the outward trappings of ethnic diversity and ‘unity’ on certain dates like Union Day. But members of the ethnic minorities have come to realize, painfully in recent years, that these gestures are empty and devoid of meaning. Some of these people are starting to point out that the NLD and military are acting in collusion.

First of all, the powers-that-be have to acknowledge that ethnic diversity is as fundamental to Myanmar as is the Irrawaddy River. And just as useful. Influenced by the ethnic rebellions, the central state, and especially the military, sees ethnic identity as a threat. Their solution is assimilation, as China is attempting to do with the Uighurs. There has to be a sea-change in this perspective. But Naypyidaw is not a place known for its intellectualism, nor, should I add, for its leadership.

Myanmar civil society came to the fore a little before the current ethnic unravelling began. With the paucity of state efforts, civil society may turn out to be the only lifeline. But essentially on the all-important issues of pluralism and diversity, the state and society have to see the error of their ways, and change. The task also needs to be taken up by intellectuals—writers, historians, film-makes and the media. The democracy promotion outfits also need to change tack—less emphasis on elections and more on pluralism and what are called ‘emancipative values’.

Pre- and post-2015: both shades of grey

The expectation since 1988 had been that the NLD government would liberalize Myanmar: this has not happened. Progress towards a more liberal Myanmar has been glacial. The generational divide has quite a bit to do with it—the Union Solidarity and Development Party and NLD leadership are from the same generation, and from the Bamar Buddhist majority. Even if objectives like constitutional amendment are achieved, allowing, for instance, winning ethnic parties to form governments in their own states, it will not be a panacea.

Bamar ethnic dominance, transposed to the political sphere, leads to a simplistic motto: “We are a democracy now, and so votes count. The more voters we have, the better. Diversity isn’t important.” The two major parties are essentially Bamar-dominant, with token minority representation. The large number of non-Bamar parties comprising members of single ethnic groups is testimony to the fact that the non-Bamar nationalities prefer to go their own way instead of teaming up with either of the two major parties. So where does that leave us with regard to building a federal system, a multi-ethnic nation, and a pan-ethnic national identity? These goals appear to be far beyond the horizon.

What Aung San Su Kyi and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing have in common is the determination to concentrate power in themselves and to close decision-making. There are strengths and weaknesses to this. It could bring success as well as failure. Myanmar’s present case inclines towards the latter. And fortune isn’t exactly smiling on either of them now. At the same time, both have strong survival and self-perpetuation instincts, and they have the organizational machinery to this end. The NLD for one will use all means at its disposal to win the next elections.

Myanmar’s political leadership is characterized by hierarchy, gerontocracy, and its reactionary nature. Post-2015 this seems to have become even more marked. The two leaders are also in their sunset years, and the best thing they could do now is to acknowledge reality and think about the legacy they shall leave behind.

We are staring at the fact that older generations are failed generations, and I would put the point of demarcation at age 45. (Someone posted a list of current cabinet ministers and their ages and it entirely fits the description of gerontocracy).

As Myanmar moves into the closing years of the NLD’s term of office, the two leaders—ASSK and Min Aung Hlaing—share the unenviable distinction of having together pushed the country further downhill. And more than system decay or state refractoriness, individualistic and personalistic factors—failings, really—have played a big part. There are those who study or push issues like the peace process, civil-military relations, and constitutional reform, but none of these can be treated in isolation without factoring in the leadership debility problem.

Recent developments in the region—particularly in India—merit comparison with Myanmar. Naypyidaw and Delhi have much in common now—the falling back upon authoritarian populism, and religious nationalism to begin with. The corollaries in both countries are a disregard for minorities both ethnic and religious, a mistrust of civil society, and the rolling back of democratic and secular values. And then comes the bifurcation of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, the imposition of union territory status, and rule by centrally-appointed governors. All done sadly, in a rather sleight-of-hand manner.

Both Kashmir and Rakhine are the scenes of political failure. For decades, India used to be a democratic ‘model’ for newly-independent countries taking the path of democracy (or returning to it, in the case of Myanmar). In the ongoing contest with China, India was said to have the edge by being a flourishing democracy. I wonder how people would see it now.

Conclusion

But then I would not be doing justice to my country and to friends if I were not to advance breakthrough approaches of my own.

General elections are due next year. Yes, Myanmar is still an electoral democracy, but this is a stage that an electorate lacking in sophistication has to go through on the way to a mature and stable democracy. Most importantly, the present two-party stranglehold has to be broken. The prevailing party system is in its sunset, and calling for new parties in the same mould is more than obtuse. If you can control one-third of the seats in Parliament, the two-party system can be balanced and countered. Authoritarian tendencies can and must be countered. One important lesson to be gleaned from what the Modi government did on Jammu and Kashmir is the ominous risk of a single political party enjoying a big majority in the legislature.

The youth population in Myanmar is tired, exasperated with the political system, and ready for real change. So are many ethnic parties, and youthful aspirations can become cross-cutting. Land is another unifying issue.

The ethnic nationalities should have learned by now the unhappy consequences of voting for the duo of parties. They can make a start by ensuring that chief ministers are no longer centrally-appointed. India’s model of having a governor and chief minister in each state should be widely discussed.

Setting up a monist, ethno-nationalist, non-inclusive and majoritarian political system may allow you to gain enough votes to propel you to power, but it can never be good for a country beyond the short-term.

#Southeast Asia #Burma #Myanmar #Nationalism #Ethnicity #Politics

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indiaprobe-blog · 5 years ago

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Delhi Assembly Elections: A cliffhanger

Predicting poll outcomes by all accounts is a perilous job. Elections are analysed on past trends. Electorates have proven wiser than pundits more often. They aren't prisoners of the past, as they script history elections after elections. Amid the maddening electioneering, data stay firm with serenity, inviting political strategists to steer narratives to help their masters for smart politics. Data for Delhi suggest the air in the city smells of a cliffhanger of the poll outcome.

THE ruling Aam Admi Party (AAP) had weaved a magical spell in 2015. Political rivals of the incumbent chief minister Arvind Kejriwal were left shell-shocked with the final scoreboard. That was 67-3 and a naught for the Congress. The BJP had the worst tally. The saffron outfit still bears the taunt. Climbing from an abyss like situation of the single digit figure five years ago to go past the half way mark of 35 would indeed be an unprecedented somersault. For AAP, it will equally be the groundswell of popular anger to slump from the level of 67 to 30s or less would be quite a fall with thud.

The AAP isn't just another political outfit. The party was born after Anna Hazare made the political air of Delhi pregnant with negativism during 2012-13. Negativism midwifed anarchism. Kejriwal proved an undisputed icon of the politics of anarchism. His foes were left guilt-stricken, as they bent backwards to prove their credentials of honesty and probity in public life. They vowed to innovate and herald an honest and people friendly governance. The tribe of Sheila Dikshit, Harsh Vardhan and Kiran Bedi searched for wood when their boats had already sunk.

The 2015 scoreboard read: AAP 54.3 per cent vote share and 67 Assembly seats; BJP 32.3 per cent vote share and 3 Assembly seats; and the Congress 9.7 per cent vote share and zero Assembly seats.

But that wasn't the maiden electoral venture of AAP in politics. Kejriwal cut off his umbilical chord with his godfather Anna Hazare to contest the December 2013 Assembly polls. The cadre of the AAP wasn't yet properly built. The party was still sloganeering.

The 2013 scoreboard read: AAP 29.5 per cent vote share and 28 Assembly seats; BJP 33 per cent vote share and 31 Assembly seats; and the Congress 24.6 per cent vote share and eight Assembly seats.

In span of a few months, Kejriwal built the cadre for AAP, with donations pouring from the affluent class within the country and abroad, helping him to maintain an army of well paid functionaries. With the likes of Kumar Vishwas, Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav leading the most vicious attacks on the mainstream political parties, Kejriwal strode as the alternative politics warrior, swearing to slay the rivals in the electoral battlefield. The Congress fell for the trap, and helped Kejriwal become chief minister. That bloated the persona of Kejriwal further, and soon he didn't need the Congress crutches. He read the politics well, and played the victim card to the hilt.

People flocked to Kejriwal, with 54.3 per cent vote share in 2015. His rivals turned into pygmies. The new political icon was born. But within a few months, drift set in the Kejriwal camp, as all those who bloated him into an extraordinary exponent of alternative politics parted ways after much breast-beating.

TWO years later, the AAP faced the litmus test to repeat the magical spell of 2015. The BJP had been in power in the municipal corporation of Delhi for a decade, completing two full terms. The AAP cadre was mobilised to oust the BJP from the MCD, which, incidentally, has over 90 per cent connect with the people on a daily basis. The BJP was up against significant anti-incumbency. The BJP chief Amit Shah sought shelter in simple strategy; he just told the incumbent Councillors that they should climb the political ladder and focus on contesting the next Assembly elections. The BJP fielded fresh crop of the party workers.

The 2017 municipal elections' scoreboard read: AAP 26 per cent vote share and 49 seats; BJP 37 per cent vote share and 181 seats; and the Congress 21 per cent vote share and 31 seats.

From 54.3 per cent vote share in 2015, AAP came down to 26 per cent; the BJP after staying firm with 33 per cent (2013) and 32.3 per cent (2015) rose to 37 per cent; and the Congress made a smart recovery from an embarrassing 9.7 per cent (2015) to 21 per cent.

In 2017 again the AAP got another jolt. The outfit had found fertile ground in Punjab, and was seen on course to wrest power from Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP combine. The Delhi drift had its own parallel in Punjab for AAP. The Congress' old horse Captain Amarinder Singh strode high to leave AAP huffing and puffing at distant second.

PEOPLE undeniably have made distinctions between local and national elections. Chhatishgarh, Odisha and Jharkhand have shown that the electorate can with ease make distinct choices in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. In Odisha, the electorate cast votes simultaneously for Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, and showed preferences for Narendra Modi in New Delhi and Navin Patnaik in Bhubaneshwar.

Still, the data are significant, for Delhi appears on a certain course. The BJP swept the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi, with the perfect scoreboard of 7-0. The 2019 endorsed the previous scorecard, with scales going higher.

The 2014 scoreboard read: AAP 32.90 per cent vote share and zero seat; BJP 46.40 per cent vote share and seven Lok Sabha seats; and the Congress 15.10 per cent vote share and zero seat.

The BJP had seen a negative swing of about 14 per cent in the 2015 Assembly elections. The AAP correspondingly registered over 21 per cent of positive swing, mostly gaining at the expense of the Congress.

The 2019 scoreboard read: AAP 18 per cent vote share and zero seat; BJP 56.58 per cent vote share and seven Lok Sabha seats; and the Congress 18 per cent vote share and zero seat.

For BJP, the scores in recent elections are 33 per cent (2013), 46.40 per cent (2014), 32.3 per cent (2015), 37 per cent (2017), 56.58 per cent (2019). In the five recent polls, the BJP hasn't gone down 32.3 per cent even when the party arguably shot in the foot by fielding an ex-cop Kiran Bedi in 2015.

The AAP in contrast has seen wild swing of vote share from 18 per cent (2019) to 54.3 per cent in 2015. The graph is surely not steady. The AAP, in fact, came third in 2019.

The 2015 elections in Delhi was a watershed moment. The BJP saw 14 per cent vote share knocked away in the face of the magical spell of AAP. Delhi was high on romance in 2015. The level of romance was two per cent higher in 2019, with adoration for a different entity.

The BJP's worst case scenario could be another 14 per cent drift, which may leave the saffron outfit still with 42 per cent popular votes. To level, the AAP will need 24 per cent of the positive swing from 2019. And, that would surely be reckoned a daunting task.

Delhi may throw a tantalizingly cliffhanger election outcome on February 11.

#delhi assembly election #arvind kejriwal #@amitshah #aamadmiparty #bjp #congress

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laksh34 · 2 years ago

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BJP retains Gujarat for 7th straight term, loses Himachal

Riding high on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP today retained power in Gujarat for a record seventh straight term pulverising the opposition to secure the biggest majority ever in the state. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) set new records in the home State of Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah with its “historic” and “phenomenal” victory for a three-fourths majority, it lost Himachal Pradesh to the Congress after a close fight, as the hill state continued with its tradition of nearly four decades in voting out the incumbent party. The vote share difference for the winning Congress and the BJP in Himachal Pradesh was less than one per cent, a point also noted by Modi and BJP President J P Nadda in their address to party workers at the BJP headquarters in Delhi in the evening. While the Congress, which got a simple majority, polled 43.9 per cent votes, the vote share for the BJP in the home state of Nadda was 43 per cent. As Modi continued to hold sway over voters and addressed 31 election rallies in Gujarat, the BJP also checkmated the new entrant Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) in the first ever triangular contests in the state and pushed the Congress down to its all time low. Gujarat State BJP president C R Paatil said Bhupendra Patel, the party’s 60-year-old soft-spoken face in the State, would remain as the Chief Minister and his swearing-in ceremony would be held on December 12. Patel won the Ghatlodia seat in Ahmedabad by a huge margin of 1.92 lakh votes. The BJP, which focused on a development agenda and overcame anti-incumbency yet again without losing an election since 1995, also equalled the Left Front’s feat of seven consecutive terms in West Bengal. The CPI(M)-led Front ruled the eastern state for 34 years from 1977 to 2011. The BJP, for whom Hindutva remained a political strategy, got support from all sections bagging 155 seats and was leading in 1 in a House of 182. It garnered a vote share of nearly 53 per cent which was the highest for the party in the western state. The BJP, which bagged 99 seats in 2017 Assembly polls with a 49.1 per cent vote share, surpassed its previous best showing of 127 seats in 2002 when Modi was the chief minister. Congress holds the all-time record of 149 seats that it had won in 1985 under the leadership of Madhavsinh Solanki. With a nearly 13 per cent vote share, the Arvind Kejriwal-headed AAP won only five of the 181 seats it contested. In a video message, the Delhi Chief Minister said though the AAP has not won many seats the votes the party got helped it attain the national party status. The AAP also called its showing impressive. After giving a tough fight to the BJP in 2017 Assembly polls in Gujarat by winning 77 seats, the Congress has hit a nadir in the western state where the party’s campaign, mostly shouldered by local leaders, has leaned on door-to-door canvassing for votes as its leader Rahul Gandhi chose to stay away to focus on the ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’. Rahul had aggressively campaigned in 2017. The AAP also appeared to have played spoilsport for the Congress. With a vote share of nearly 28 per cent, the Congress won 17 seats. The BJP managed to improve its 2017 tally as the issues it faced in the 2017 state polls like the state-wide outburst of anger among the Patidar community and restlessness among the traders over the GST regime appear to have faded. Hundreds of BJP workers thronged the party office in Gandhinagar as they danced and distributed sweets outside the Gujarat state party headquarters. Though the opposition in Gujarat took on the Modi government over rising inflation, slowing growth and joblessness, the economic troubles apparently did not dent BJP’s popularity in the state that has been a bastion of the party for decades and where Modi was chief minister from 2001 to 2014. While the Congress was not expected to replicate its creditable performance of the last Assembly elections, a good showing by the AAP could have helped Kejriwal cement his place as a key challenger to Prime Minister Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The AAP is also in power in Punjab. The AAP had carried out a high-decibel campaign and emboldened by the victory in the Delhi municipal elections it had hoped its politics of welfarism will be accepted by the people in Gujarat. Journalist-turned-politician Isudan Gadhvi, who was AAP’s Chief Ministerial face, and Gopal Italia, the party’s State president, were among the prominent losers from the party camp. Several State leaders of the Congress party including its former leader of opposition Paresh Dhanani lost. However, its senior-most leader in the state, Arjun Modhwadia won while firebrand Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani reversed early losses to post a victory. Patidar leader Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and cricketer Ravindra Jadeja’s wife Rivaba Jadeja were among the prominent winners for the BJP. In Himachal Pradesh, the Congress won 40 of the 68 seats at stake followed by the BJP, which bagged 25. Independents won three seats. The AAP, which had fielded candidates in 67 seats, failed to make a debut and had a meagre vote share of 1.1 per cent. Congress leaders in Himachal Pradesh credited its general secretary Priyanka Gandhi for its win which came as a boost for the grand old party. Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur, who won for the sixth time from Seraj assembly seat in Mandi district, said he respects the mandate of the people and submitted his resignation to Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar.

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news365timesindia · 2 months ago

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[ad_1] Paromita Das GG News Bureau New Delhi, 11th Dec. The Congress party, once heralded as the backbone of Indian democracy, finds itself grappling with a profound challenge—maintaining political momentum after its encouraging performance in the Lok Sabha elections. The near-doubling of its seats in the national polls and the achievement of the Leader of the Opposition position represented a glimmer of resurgence for the party. It signaled an ability to counter the BJP’s formidable dominance and reclaim its status as a principal opposition force. Yet, the optimism birthed from these achievements has been eroded by subsequent state-level defeats in Maharashtra and Haryana, exposing cracks in the party’s electoral machinery and strategic vision. The Lok Sabha elections showcased a party that seemed poised for revival under the assertive leadership of Rahul Gandhi. The reduced majority of the BJP presented an opportunity for the Congress to reframe Indian politics, focusing on governance as a moral and ideological contest. Its messaging resonated with significant sections of the electorate, allowing the party to position itself as a counterweight to the BJP’s polarizing narrative. However, the success achieved at the national level has not translated into consistent regional victories. In Maharashtra, despite being part of a strong coalition, the Congress failed to match the ruling alliance’s welfare initiatives, which effectively reached women and marginalized groups. The inability to communicate a credible alternative undermined the Congress’s appeal. Additionally, leadership weaknesses and coordination issues with allies compounded its electoral woes, leaving the party outmaneuvered. In Haryana, the story was equally disheartening. Anti-incumbency sentiments were palpable, and yet the Congress failed to capitalize on this discontent. Internal rivalries and organizational mismanagement hindered the party’s ability to consolidate its voter base, resulting in another critical defeat. These setbacks are not merely isolated state-level failures but indicators of deeper structural and strategic flaws. They challenge the Congress’s capacity to build on national-level gains and exert its leadership within the India Bloc. The implications of these defeats stretch far beyond immediate electoral losses. The Congress, as the largest constituent of the India Bloc, bears the responsibility of steering the opposition alliance against the BJP. However, its inability to perform consistently risks diminishing its influence. Allies’ recent successes in Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir have further underscored the Congress’s struggles, raising questions about whether it can command the credibility and authority needed to lead the bloc. Moving forward, the Congress faces crucial tests that will determine its future relevance. Parliamentary floor management, coupled with the strategy for upcoming state elections, will be pivotal in shaping its trajectory. To regain its footing, the party must prioritize a comprehensive overhaul of its approach. Strengthening regional leadership, fostering grassroots connections, and addressing systemic issues that resonate with key voter groups—particularly women and rural communities—must become central to its agenda. Additionally, the Congress must focus on rebuilding trust and synergy with its allies to ensure cohesive action during elections. The party’s setbacks serve as a reminder of the complexities of India’s political landscape. While its Lok Sabha performance reaffirmed its importance, the recent losses highlight the need for adaptability and strategic clarity. Without significant reforms, the Congress risks losing its position not only as a leading opposition force but also as a unifying entity within the India Bloc. Failure to address these challenges could leave the party vulnerable, overshadowed by its own allies and unable to fulfill its aspirations of leading the opposition coalition effectively. The Congress stands at a crossroads.

It has shown flashes of its potential to reclaim relevance but must now prove its mettle through decisive action. If it can learn from its setbacks and adapt to the evolving political terrain, it may yet secure its place as a formidable challenger in India’s democracy. Otherwise, its resurgence will remain a fleeting moment in the annals of history, overshadowed by missed opportunities and unfulfilled promises. The post Congress at the Crossroads: From Optimism to Setbacks appeared first on Global Governance News- Asia's First Bilingual News portal for Global News and Updates. [ad_2] Source link

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