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pleaserelaxfc · 3 years ago

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NWSL Challenge Cup Thoughts: Week 1, East

The last part of my thoughts before each group of the Challenge Cup gets underway - this time the Eastern group.

Expected Final Standings:

Washington Spirit

NY/NJ Gotham FC

Orlando Pride

North Carolina Courage

General Thoughts:

Like in the Western group, I think there is going to be a pretty sharp divide between the two better teams and the two worse teams in the Eastern group. Both the Pride and the Courage let go of significant players from their rosters in the offseason, and I think it will take both of them a little too long to figure out their new looks. The Spirit largely kept their championship-winning roster in tact, and if they come out trying to win this they should have a pretty good chance of winning the group, or at least getting a strong second place, but assuming Kristie Mewis and Ify Onumonu's injuries are both fairly short-term, Gotham could make a strong challenge to repeat last year's journey to the final.

Team-by-Team Breakdown:

Spirit

The Spirit played one preseason game and lost pretty dramatically, so my confidence on this one is not very high. However, I think in that game, Kansas City had their international players (or most of them) back, while the Spirit gave most of their internationals a few extra days off, meeting the back in Washington rather than having them travel to Florida for only a couple of days. I also think that game was used more for figuring out which players to offer contracts to than anything else - only nine players who played in it are still with the team.

Most of the players who were with the Spirit when they won last year's championship are still with them. Three notable exceptions are left back Tegan McGrady, who was traded to the Wave, defender Paige Nielsen, who was taken by Angel City in the expansion draft, and team leader and midfielder Tori Huster, who got an ACL injury in the playoffs and will likely be out all season. I don't think any of them is irreplaceable with the other pieces the Spirit has now - of the three, I think McGrady is the only one who might have otherwise had a regular starting role with the Spirit, and between new signing Amber Brooks, Julia Roddar's positional flexibility, and the several younger players the Spirit tried out at outside back during the Olympic period, I think they have pretty decent coverage there.

I've listed what I think is their best XI below (taking into account the injuries on this week's injury report), but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of their younger players (Anna Heilferty, Taylor Aylmer) and newer signings (Brooks, former Kansas City player Gaby Vincent, draft pick Tinaya Alexander) getting significant minutes during the Challenge Cup.

Expected starters: Kingsbury; Roddar, Staab, Sonnett, O'Hara; Sullivan, Bailey, Sanchez; Rodman, McKeown, Hatch

Gotham

Genuinely the only reason that I am not putting Gotham at the top of this list is the fact that Kristie Mewis and Ify Onumonu, who should both be starting whenever possible, are both on the injured list this week, and it isn't clear what those injuries are or how long they are expected to be out. Gotham lost all of their goalkeepers (which is interesting) (and also, I think, all of their really-publicly-out queer players, which strikes me as even more interesting, especially considering the new signings Gotham has made), as well as utility midfielder/left back Elizabeth Eddy and central forwards Carli Lloyd (retired) and Evelyne Viens (loaned out for all of 2022). Offseason additions to their roster include two experienced goalkeepers in Ashlyn Harris and Michelle Betos and national-team midfielder Kristie Mewis, as well as defender Ali Krieger.

Gotham's defensive line was already one of the strongest in the league, and with the addition of Krieger, I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to implement a three-back like the one that they briefly flirted with during Freya Coombe's tenure. On the other hand, Gotham sometimes seemed to be lacking in the attacking areas last season, both in terms of creative midfielders and forward production. Mewis should be able to improve the midfield quality by quite a lot, and with Purce healthy, I expect her combination with Onumonu in the front line will really step it up for Gotham this year.

Expected starters: Harris; Lewandowski, Johnson, Krieger; Dorsey, Cudjoe, Kawasumi, Sheehan, Dydasco; Monaghan, Purce

Pride

The Pride made a lot of headline-grabbing moves this offseason, mostly in the way of players leaving Orlando for other teams. Goalkeeper Ashlyn Harris and defender Ali Krieger, who were also team leaders, moved to Gotham, outside back Ali Riley went to Angel City, and forward Alex Morgan was traded to San Diego, along with Jodie Taylor and Taylor Kornieck. They also took a big gamble and lost with their first draft pick - after selecting Mia Fishel, she ultimately signed with Tigres in Liga MX Femenil.

They have made a couple of good signings, though probably not enough to turn them around in time for a serious run at the Challenge Cup title - midfielder Angharad James, center back Megan Montefusco, outside back Celia, and forward Darian Jenkins were all traded for from other NWSL teams, and midfielder Mikayla Cluff was signed following several outstanding years at BYU. However, the Pride were already in rough shape, particularly in the midfield and defense, and while they may have done enough to make up for their offseason losses, I'm not sure that it's enough to bring them to the top of the table yet.

Expected starters: McLeod; Peterson, Montefusco, Turner, Celia; James, Jonsdottir, Cluff; Jenkins, Leroux, Marta

Courage

The Courage has gone from having one of the strongest rosters in the league, and in particular one of the strongest midfields, to having something of a massive question mark. They made a couple of good moves to start the offseason, getting Kiki Pickett in exchange for Sam Mewis (who was likely to be lost in the expansion draft anyway), trading with Gotham for Brianna Pinto, getting Jorian Baucom off of the waiver wire, and signing Brazilian international Kerolin. They seemed to focus on shoring up a defense that was already solid - in addition to Pickett, they also re-signed formerly-retired left back Jaelene Daniels, despite her history of homophobia and the fact that they already have one of the best left backs in the league, and signed Malia Berkely, formerly playing in the French league.

However, other than Baucom, Kerolin and Pinto, they left most of their midfield and forward development for the college draft - they picked up several players there who should develop once given some time in the league. However, the team is probably going to struggle a bit moving forward to start off - in addition to Amy Rodriguez retiring, Jess McDonald was traded to Louisville and Lynn Williams was traded to Kansas City, leaving Rylee Baisden and Brittany Ratcliffe the only forwards from last season's roster still with the team. After a few years of upheaval in the midfield, Debinha and Denise O'Sullivan are still core players for them - but O'Sullivan is unavailable for the Challenge Cup (as is Kerolin).

Expected starters: Rowland; C. Pickett, Kurtz, Erceg, K. Pickett; Bowen, Speck, Pinto; Debinha, Baucom, Ordonez

Game Predictions:

Pride vs. Spirit (7:00, 3/19):

I think the Spirit will win, and my guess on a scoreline would be 2-1.

Courage vs. Gotham (7:00, 3/19):

This is a weird one, Gotham is missing two of their best attacking players, but the Courage is also missing their starting goalkeeper. There are a lot of different ways this one could go, but I'm going to guess it will end up with a 1-0 Gotham win.

#NWSL #Challenge Cup

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