#andy blake defense squad

[theteablogger]

Thanfictioning is Returnofthenecromommycon / Necromommycon / Carlanime

After I posted my first response to Thanfictioning, I googled the blog name last night. The only two results were my blog and a Dreamwidth community where Necromommycon had posted her Sluagh read-through. That was odd.

(Incidentally, I have no reason to believe that the sole other member of that community had anything to do with any of this.)

I read back through everything Thanfictioning had posted up to that point. There were several lines that reminded me very much of things Necromommycon had said before, including that Thanfictioning had done a couple of things in the past that made them look bad in ways similar to Andy (see her tf-talk comments on channeling: 1 | 2). Thanfictioning used a tag she had used a number of times. On the other hand, the story of how Thanfictioning first attempted to reach Andy and finally made contact with him didn’t seem to correspond to her story of being unexpectedly PMed after she commented on CFC’s “other side of the wank” LJ post. Finally, given our interactions and her history (corresponding with Turimel, sharing Andy’s messages full of lies about mental illness and Brittany, being empathetic toward Abbey and other previous associates of Andy’s, writing commentary on some of his posts) I could not imagine her minimizing and misrepresenting Andy’s abusive actions as Thanfictioning had done. This made me suspect that Andy or one of his friends (probably at his behest) was trying to stir shit up and mislead me and other bloggers/anons into believing that Thanfictioning was Necromommycon.

I didn’t think it could actually be her. Neither did Abbey or another anon, when I talked about it with each of them separately. I had had enough positive interactions with Necromommycon that I trusted her. That trust was enough for me to vouch for her publicly when an anon expressed concern about her still being friends with Andy. Fuck, three years ago, Necromommycon offered to send money to help with my wedding, a gesture so kind and so unexpected that it almost moved me to tears (which is an extremely rare occurrence). Abbey and I were even more convinced of her innocence when we saw the post denying that Andy was a rapist: Necromommycon did not seem at all like the kind of person who would be so cruel to a rape survivor.

I decided that now was not the time to call anyone out for impersonating Necromommycon, although that really seemed to be what was happening. Watching and waiting seemed like the best course of action. 

Instead, I started a response to the rape apologism post. When I’d just about finished, I finally thought, “Fuck it. She needs to know what’s happening before someone else puts the pieces together and confronts her.” So I sent Necromommycon a PM on Tumblr chat and an ask. I knew she wouldn’t be able to prove that she wasn’t Thanfictioning (you can’t prove a negative), but I wanted to be able to say that I’d confirmed it wasn’t her, and I was willing to take her word for it. 

Unfortunately, this was the response I received:

Today at 6:14 PM

returnofthenecromommycon

I'm sorry to tell you this, but it was me. Last summer when I was at the cabin, Andy had me convinced that [a nightmarish thing related to being trans had happened to him years ago, and he was struggling with severe psychological problems]. I wrote four posts in total, intending them only to be read by two specific friends of mine, one of whom had the sense to tell me that I could ask Abbey if [the nightmarish thing had really happened]. She confirmed that hadn't happened.I then deleted the posts, or so I thought, from the cabin--and thought no more about it until someone informed me it had been mentioned on tf-talk. The posts were originally password protected, and I had never intended them for public view. I just needed the two people most able to tell me if I was being realistic to now everything I was thinking, so I spewed it all out in four posts. I reposted the Diamond one this morning, since it briefly seemed more honest to make it all public than to just screen it and walk away, but then I saw that would only make things even worse and deleted it. You can quote as much of this as is helpful, but please keep the [redacted information] private (Abbey can confirm that I asked about [the nightmarish thing], I guess, but it's not a detail I want shared at large). 

I was utterly gobsmacked, horrified, and furious. After thinking about it for a few minutes, I decided that I still needed to post my response to the rape apologism, because any number of people might have seen it before the Tumblr was deleted. I also replied to Necromommycon as follows:

I don't even know where to begin, but I guess I'll start with the dates on those posts. The first one was dated July 19, 2018. The "Andy isn't dangerous" one was dated Oct 26, 2018, just a week before it was linked in tf-talk. And the post about Diamond mentions my list of reasons why people think Andy is dangerous, which only went up on Oct 22, so you couldn't have written all of that over the summer. And even if you did...are you saying that during the summer, while you were calling out Chris for rape apologism and posting screenshots of him saying it was wrong to accuse Andy of rape, before ANY posts were made in the Thanfictioning tumblr, you didn't think Andy was a rapist?

She has not responded to that message.

It appears that all that time that Necromommycon was expressing empathy toward Abbey, she may have privately believed that Abbey was “lying or exaggerating” about a lot of things. Despite her calling out Chris over the summer for saying it was wrong to call Andy a rapist, she herself did not believe he was a rapist. She posted records of Chris’s rape apologism, but subsequently attempted to discredit Diamond. Over a period of years, she engaged in discussion with me and other Andy awareness bloggers, reblogging many of our posts and adding her own commentary, all while she apparently thought that I/we ought to be subject to legal action for things we were saying about Andy.

Some people will doubtless characterize this as a blow to the credibility of all Andy awareness bloggers and anon communities. It isn’t. The only person who looks bad here is Necromommycon. I have no reason to doubt the veracity of the emails and messages from Andy that she’s shared in the past, especially since Andy and CFC have indicated that they’re real, so there is no reason to remove them from the timeline. I see no reason to regret or second-guess anything that I said in my two responses to her Thanfictioning posts.

One of my favorite quotations, which I have on a little pewter keychain clipped to my bag, is, “Every murderer is probably somebody’s old friend.” (Agatha Christie, The Mysterious Affair at Styles) It means a lot of things to me, but one of the most important is that when the evidence suggests that someone we like and trust has done something wrong, we should not immediately assume that they’re innocent. We should continue to gather evidence and explore the possibilities, bearing in mind that the truth may be something that makes us uncomfortable. I’m generally good at acting on that principle, but in this case, I clearly was not.

[smallgayblanket]

Fresh Muse List

In case you guys were curious about my characters I have a big old list:

Egos:

Anti   (Usually the softer kind, has green emerald glowings eyes which turn staticy blue when hes vulnerable/being open/himself. He can be an asshole though and does in deed take out bad guys with his knife.)

Jameson Jackson  (Mute but does actually still have a voice- his vocals are in ruins and he's kinda dealing with poor eating making him dangerously skinny. He works as a bartender and has silver tipped brown hair that's a little bit longer than the others.)

Crank  (Robot Ethan ego. He’s an utter mess- eyes sometimes fizzle out, joints stiff, has emotional issues. He also has a corrupted voice in his head that is real nasty when he pops up and sometimes takes over their shared frame.)

Blank  (Fricking soft boy, his aura is hard to control and sometimes controls him. He has a rare heart issues which makes him prone to fainting and collpasing without much warning.  Still, he tries.) 

Jackieboyman   (Super hero boy! Super buff, caring, kind, and tol.  Lilac/Gold eyes. Little odd strip of red in his brown hair. The best voice.  Works as a gas station worker to hide his identity (he looks great in the blue button up and glasses.) He.’s ftm trans. Sometimes I HC him as a phionex other times he has pretty golden whips of light.)

King of the Squirrels   (Otherwise known as Simon. He’s a hybrid, Tail, ears. Omega. Very sweet, little skittsh and frzzled. Wears glasses and cozy sweaters- likes making nests and being out in nature. Loves PB but is actually allergic..doesn’t keep him from eating it though.)

Henrick Von Schneeplestien  (Grumpy german doctor who lives off of coffee. He is willing to assist those in need and really needs to sleep.)

Chase Brody  (He’s got his youtube channel and a bunch of positive vibes! He’s strugglign sometimes with depression but its not always so bad. Sometimes he had real bad migrains though, and he also suffers from chornic fatigue making his days shorter or hard to get teverything done.)

Wilford Warfstache  (We know him, lover of bubbles and pink. Talks funny, loves candy. Chubby man.) 

Yandere  (Nonbinary somewaht MTF.  They’re a real cutie, will punch dickheads without a sweat and really just want someone to be their senpai and let them fall for them head over heels without running away..) 

Were-Eth  (Ethan got bit by a werewolf and now deals with that. Basically an Ethan muse with a small twist. He’s absoultely adorable with the tail and ears and sharp teef.)

Mark  (Abused and kidnapped by Author My Mark is a little bit softer then the guy he’s based on. He’s a little bit shorter and alot more anxious and unsure of himself thanks to Author breaking him down. He’s vcovered in lots of scars spescfially his wrist’s and does not like water much. )

Bing.  (Tries his hardest to be good, bit glitchy but he’s chill. He tries to skate, and jokes wen nervous. He’s pretty sweet though.) 

Edward Iplier  (Absoulte adorable dork, He tries to help everyone and anyone no matter what- I’ve kinda fallen in love with the idea of him only having one arm but that’s only one of many ideas. He loves space, he’s chubby and also loves food. He’s got a prety neat aura ablity too.) 

Robbie.  (Soft grape zombie boy. He’s sweet and innocent as ever. He’s easily th e shyest of the bunch and doesn’t always talk to much. He loves getting affection though and is always eager to please.) 

And meet my OCS! Some of them are old- and alot of them are new! There's a little description for each just to get your interest~

Quinton  (A Hybrid of Demon and Angel otherwise called a Guardian.)

Ori ( Very pure angel boy AU of the angel half of Q - a little androgynous when it comes to clothing he/him sometimes they/them.)

Zeno  (A DJ with a somewhat secret love for dancing too. Only has one arm.)

Lumi (Ghost boy- literally- he died and he’s kinda like Danny phantom in reverse- he can turn solid but eventually has to rest and turn back to being unable to interact with objects)

Eztli   (Pretty grump guy who was cursed by a witch to be immortal- although it made his blood kinda..weird..)

Gallio (Strawberry Hipster guy- A photographer who also has hypoglycemia)

Aomi (A blackberry witch- hes not very great at spells yet but he tries!)

Lucas (A moonstone gem perma-fusion. Quite a nervous wreck.)

Eme. (A smart scientist. Human. Nothing special.)

Chris. (Camp leader! He’s based off David from camp camp but hes far more buff and hes not so over the top. He has his own green house and is part dryad.)

Alex  (A very confused, overly optimist Alien who doesn’t know what they are. Come from the planet Eutychia)

Locus  (Fish boi!  Transparent fins, glowy patches, plays harp + loves music)

Lir(A Tiny Octopus/Human boy!!)

Reese (Passionfruit bab! Literally. He kinda contains passionfruit pulp but don’t cut him open!!! :< Or do if you want weird angst >_>)

Benji (Strawberry shortcake boi- Cursed tape /bandages. Demi half god. One eye. Uses notes to communicate but also sign. Really. Good sweets maker)

Small bois- These boys are pocket sized! though sometimes I do like to think about them being human sized ^^.

Kiyan. (A little assistant android. Created to assist! He works at a post office currently. Pronouns do not matter to him though its usually he/they/it.)

Tobias. (Made of hair gel. Eats soap. Someone stop him before he gets a tummy ache. He/him.)

Hinto  (Guy made of foam slime- He was kinda based off Remy aka Sleep from the fanders.)

Glowstick bubs (They are tiny boys who glow like well- glowsticks but also lavalamps, very pretty to look at. and theyre nocturnal!)

Theo(A tiny ink creature. He makes a mess but hes adorable.)

JellyBubs! (A collection of tiny sentient jelly babies, The main one being strawberry aka Jeri. They dont mind what you calm them but usually they works best.)

Miel (A tiny little bee boy! He makes honey.)

Moyachi  (Cactus boi!! Loves water and has clear/lime green tinted aloe/herbal helpful blood. Spikes up at defense from bad people)

Apocolyse Squad:

Long story shot: The planet Keres,  Left uninhabitable after the invasion that ruined the air and killed almost the entire race. I have loads of stuff to talk about for this gang of 6:

Sameal o’Ceirin (Being of smoke- partly blind.)

Mallory Thomas (Part cat! Can talk to animals. Nonbinary/genderfluid.)

Hamrish Benat  (Also goes by Hami/Hayden. He/him. 4 eyes, soft tongue. PTSD. Super soft boy. Loves soap cutting videos (and doing it himself) and bears/plushies - Has an arrange of cute face masks. Is a trained nurse and learning to be a pediatrician.)

Joshua who cares (An asshole lets leave it at that.)

Andy Peters (Strong, kind. Kind of like Tyler Scheid, He/him.

Adrian  Géarán  ( Real anxious. Gets bullied alot. bit of a weakling/cry baby to some. Has a pretty shit immune system struggles with food and sleep.. He has a Demon esc-Tail, fire abilities, likes to make little robots. He loves iron man. He/him.)  

Liren Pichi (Deaf peaches n cream boi- Nickname Pichi.  He wasn’t part of the squad- however he did end up landing on their planet- he had some rough encounters with the aliens ^^)

Neighbours AU:

These guys all live in the same little  cul de sac

Lynx is from planet Ananke.

They all live on the new homeworld, Ermioni. (Its basically earth just a few more creatures live there and the government is less of a mess.)

Lesbabs:

Blake Aglaia  (She/ her.  A human with a gift of being able to put emotions into glass balls..)

Lynx ?? (She/her/they/xe/ xir  An alien and human, the alien somewhat resides inside its host but they coexist. Sometimes goes feral)   Alien half likes to go by Perse  (Percy)  They have cool looking saliva- viens that run down their arms that are pretty cool- sharper nails/claws? Tendrils. Large ol mouth. Lots of point ass teef.

Demon fam:

Hyacinth ( A six-armed demon. Grows flowers on his skin based on emotions. He’s a huge mother hen, will care for anyone. Enjoys cooking and gardening and children.  He/Him)

Rhys  (They/Them. A Demon with a great curiosity about humans) Feri  (The sibling of Ryhs)

Anthos (Rhys and Hy’s summoned accidental toddler.. He has a cute tail and tinnny horns.  He/him)

Roommates:

Douglas Connelly  (He/Him A regular chubby human bean! Loves baking and music.)

Donovan Amores  (He/Him/ Real fricking cool and smokin hot Bartender with a love for dogs. Dougs roommate. Has glowing fuckin orbs- donates his heart- is smooth as fuck, background heavily Spanish (moved when young.))

Haris Alaksim Real name (lost in translation  (Huitzilopochtli God of sun and war) ) - A god whom Dono is very close with and donates his heart two one every 3 years during the day of the highest sun. He is a god / Mouros.  Donovan refers to him as “Dios gentil”  or “ Viejo colibrí sabio”   (“El viejo colibrí sabio es un dios gentil” (The old wise hummingbird is a gentle god.)

Donovans Family

Rem (They/He/Him Looks after magical creatures- Cane is from Haris)

Oscar  (He/Him.  Not sure what trinket or power but He’s just a casual store worker w/ good arms. Surprisingly good with knives- perhaps has one from Haris?)

Nicole  (She/her/they/them.  Makes clothes..possibly got some ability to do with seasons..?  Perhaps earrings or a bracelet from Haris)

Javi  (Makes jam, cute boy, wears cloaks. Has a cute little jar necklace  ^ a proper sized magic jar.  Doesn’t mind whatever pronouns but usually prefers he/him/boy.)

Luca (FTM Trans bookkeeper- Talks to Haris most often and likes to ask questions..Has precious books…Possibly a special pen..)

Forest bois:

Cypress (The soul of the forest - Mentor of Rem. Doesn't mind what you call him but usually leans masculine.)

Unicorn boi (Yet to be fleshed out. Hes got very rare blood- lost his horn and lives with a giant inside of a bubble?  He/him/it)

Fyn. (Mushroom boy. Protects a gate. Lost his twin in a fire caused by humans.. He/him)

Fie. (Bat boy. Love fruit. Is ironically scared of the dark- shy but cute. He/Him)

Moh. (Fairy/incubus hybrid.  They/them)

Tucker. (Bunny hybrid- cool guy with bunny ears and a tail. Soft white patches on his chest. Got a bit of an attitude but is chill- is also friends with Ainsley. He/him but is usually mistaken for a girl because he by bunny standards is..)

Ainsley. (Fawn boy. Wears glasses. Much like a deer, skittish and nerdy and keeps to himself. Tries to keep Tucker out of trouble but usually ends up dragged along instead)

Experiments:

Izekiel  Iris (A being of Paint!  Stutter, anxious, hallucinates. Zones out alot. An amazing artist though. He/him though has feminine tendencies.)

Matty   (An experiment, part human, part lizard, part dragon. Much smol and cute. Hes very quiet, selectively mute on occasion. Lots of scars and trauma, scars on his arms and constantly needs to wear bandages. Very easily tired. he/him.)

Nes. (Based of off Crankgameplays as face claim but he’s basically his own thing at this point. He’s been through alot of angst and trauma and some really nasty stuff ^^’ (He killed his parents, the ice cream truck driver tried to abduct him, he was experimented on in a very bad place, and now he's an utter wreck who will cling to anyone who gives him the time of day. He has murder tenancies but is full of guilt and hates whenever he hurts anyone. Lots of panics. Very hard to handle if you aren’t patient.)

[pucks-deep]

Draft Day Hauls: Every NHL Team’s Best Draft

The NHL Entry Draft has seen many shrewd picks as well as some mega-busts. Today I am focusing on the best. Presented here is every NHL team’s best overall haul of players from a single draft. Drafts following the 2015 NHL Entry Draft have been excluded from this list, as many prospects have not had sufficient time to make an impact in the NHL yet. Also, this list does not factor in whether or not players selected played for their respective franchises.

Anaheim Ducks- 2003

The Ducks’ best player in franchise history, Ryan Getzlaf, was selected at the number fifteen slot, followed by future Rocket Richard winner Corey Perry. Both would help bring a championship to Anaheim in 2007. Rounding out the draft is Drew Miller and Shane O’Brien.

Arizona Coyotes- 2004

The Yotes have had a tough time building through the draft for many years, but they did nab Blake Wheeler in the 04′ draft, along with journeyman Daniel Winnik. Too bad they didn’t see his talents blossom in Arizona.

Boston Bruins- 2006

The Bruins struck gold in 06′, selecting Phil Kessel, Milan Lucic and Brad Marchand, despite only selecting six players in the draft.

Buffalo Sabres- 1982

This draft brought Phil Housley and Dave Andreychuk to the Sabres, cementing their core for the next decade.

Calgary Flames- 1984

This draft was filled with star power, as the Flames took Gary Roberts, Brett Hull and Gary Suter. Roberts and Suter would help the Flames to a Stanley Cup championship in 89′. Overshadowed by these players is Paul Ranheim, who would go on to play over 1000 career NHL games.

Carolina Hurricanes- 2010

This draft stands as the best for the Canes, although none of the players selected remain with the club today. They include Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk and Frederik Andersen.

Chicago Blackhawks- 2003

This one narrowly beat out the 1980 draft that produced Denis Savard and Steve Larmer. The 03′ draft is known as one of the deepest in NHL history, and the Hawks certainly got their share of players from it. Brent Seabrook and Corey Crawford played vital roles in Chicago’s dynasty from 2010 to 2015, while Dustin Byfuglien helped out the first run.

Colorado Avalanche- 2009

The Avs scored in 09′, selecting Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Reilly and Tyson Barrie with just seven picks. Unfortunately, this wave of players couldn’t save the Avs from falling down a dark path, culminating in the worst post-lockout season in NHL history in 2016-17, leading to all three players being shipped in succession.

Columbus Blue Jackets- 2002

Rick Nash single-handedly made the 02′ draft the best in Blue Jackets history, making it all the more obvious how disappointing many of their drafts have been over the years. Nash holds the franchise records for games played, goals, assists and points.

Dallas Stars- 1993

With their first two picks as a franchise in Dallas, the Stars selected Todd Harvey and Jamie Langenbrunner. Not bad. Langenbrunner would go on to win the cup with the Stars and New Jersey Devils, as well as captain the 2010 United States Olympic Team.

Detroit Red Wings- 1989

Picking the Wings’ best draft is a tough call, but the 89′ draft was a special one, one that foreshadowed the dominant era of the Red Wings in the late 90s and early 00s. The Wings nabbed Nicklas Lidstrom, Sergei Federov, Mike Sillinger and Dallas Drake, who all played 1000 games or more, as well as Vladimir Konstantinov, who almost certainly would have done the same, had he not tragically suffered brain trauma in an automobile accident. A truly legendary class of players.

Edmonton Oilers- 1979 and 1980

This one was just too close to choose one over the other. The 79′ crop, featuring Mark Messier, Kevin Lowe and Glenn Anderson, produced a staggering combined total of 3418 points, while the 80′ class, featuring Paul Coffey, Jari Kurri and Andy Moog, came just behind with 3375 points. 

Florida Panthers- 2010

The Panthers don’t have a stellar track record at the draft, but they had themselves a fairly deep draft in 10′, selecting depth players Zach Hyman and Joonas Donskoi, Alex Petrovic and Nick Bjugstad. Of course, they also selected Erik Gudbranson third overall, which hasn’t exactly panned out for the Panthers but he does have over 500 NHL games under his belt.

Los Angeles Kings- 1980

All but three of the Kings twelve picks in the 80′ draft played in the NHL. Kings greats Larry Murphy, Bernie Nicholls and Steve Bozek were among them.

Minnesota Wild- 2000

The Wild saved their best for first, as their first-ever draft saw the additions of sniper Marian Gaborik and defensive D-man Nick Schultz, mainstays of the franchise through their early years. Gaborik is the Wild franchise leader in goals.

Montreal Canadiens- 1984

Montreal was right on the money with their first four picks, selecting Petr Svoboda, Shayne Corson, Stephane Richer and Patrick Roy in succession. All would play over 1000 games with the Habs, and Roy went on to become one of the greatest goaltenders in the history of the game.

Nashville Predators- 2003

The Preds found two huge cornerstones to build around in 03′, stealing Ryan Suter and Shea Weber in the first and second rounds. They also picked up Kevin Klein in round two, a steady stay at home defenseman.

New Jersey Devils- 1994

The 94′ draft brought a nice blend of players to the Devils, including 1000 point man Patrik Elias, defenseman Sheldon Souray and Steve Sullivan. Elias has become a Devils all-time great.

New York Islanders- 1977

Legendary scorer Mike Bossy was gifted to the Islanders at 15th overall, along with John Tonelli, an effective point producer through the Islanders’ dynasty years.

New York Rangers- 1990

The Blueshirts nabbed Doug Weight, recent Hall of Fame inductee Sergei Zubov and Sergei Nemchinov. Zubov and Nemchinov helped the Rangers capture their 94′ championship.

Ottawa Senators- 2001 

Senators all-time great Jason Spezza was selected at 2nd overall, but there was a good depth to this draft. Tim Gleason, Ray Emery and Brooks Laich were all selected. Spezza and Emery played pivotal roles in their run to the finals in 07′.

Philadelphia Flyers- 1969 

Easily the oldest draft on this list, the Flyers best player in their history, Bobby Clarke, was taken along with Dave Schultz and Don Saleski, who would go on to terrorize opponents as the Broad Street Bullies in the 70s.

Pittsburgh Penguins- 2005

Generational talent Sidney Crosby landed in the arms of the Pens after winning the 05′ draft lottery. To sweeten things up more, the Pens also uncovered blueline cornerstone Kris Letang in the third round. The rest is history.

St. Louis Blues- 1976 

The Blues ran away with future franchise all-time point leader Bernie Federko, Brian Sutter, Mike Liut and Mike Eaves.

San Jose Sharks- 1997

The selection of Patrick Marleau at 2nd overall marked the start of a new era of Sharks hockey. The Sharks also added Scott Hannan, who played 18 seasons as a reliable defensive rearguard.

Tampa Bay Lightning- 1998

The forward core of the 2004 Lightning championship squad came right from the 98′ draft, where the Bolts walked away with two of the best two centres in the draft in Vincent Lecavalier and Brad Richards.

Toronto Maple Leafs- 1970

Leafs legend Darryl Sittler was selected 8th overall, along with Errol Thompson. In a few years, one of the more recent Leafs draft crops will surely surpass those of the past.

Vancouver Canucks- 1999

Who could ever forget Sedin twins Daniel and Henrik being selected back to back by the Canucks? Easily the best players in franchise history, they nearly won Vancouver their first-ever title in 2011.

Vegas Golden Knights- none

Vegas’s first draft was in 2017, but there are some promising names in that crop.

Washington Capitals- 2004

Generational sniper Alex Ovechkin joined the Caps, ushering in an exciting new era of hockey in the NHL. The Caps also selected offensive defenseman Mike Green, who anchored the Washington blueline through the first years of the Ovechkin era.

Winnipeg Jets- 2011

The Jets made a shrewd selection with their first-ever draft pick as the Winnipeg Jets, selecting Mark Scheifele 7th overall. They also added depth centre Adam Lowry with their next pick.

[junker-town]

How your NFL team can fix its biggest offseason needs

Buffalo Bills

The Bills used free agency to build around Josh Allen, getting quantity (if not quality) as they work to prop up their budding franchise QB. Wideouts John Brown and Cole Beasley will add viable targets for a weak passing game, and linemen Mitch Morse and Spencer Long should keep Allen from getting his jersey too dirty in 2019.

There are still plenty of holes to fill in Buffalo, however. The Bills lack the kind of game-changing WR1 who can give Beasley, Brown, and Zay Jones room to thrive. They could also use a run-stopping plug in the middle of the defensive line now that Kyle Williams has retired, and the secondary needs help as well.

Miami Dolphins

Miami needs help just about everywhere, and while signing Ryan Fitzpatrick gives the Dolphins some experience at quarterback, he’s no long-term solution. First-year head coach Brian Flores also brought former Patriots Eric Rowe and Dwayne Allen south with him, which ... yeah, isn’t splashy.

That leaves plenty of work to do in the draft and 2019 will be a rebuilding year, so Flores should prioritize adding as much pure talent to a barren roster as possible. Replenishing the team’s defense — primarily at edge rusher and in the secondary — and the offensive line would be a good start for what could be a long road back to prosperity.

New England Patriots

The Patriots watched some premium talent leave this offseason when Trent Brown and Trey Flowers each struck off for massive contracts elsewhere and Rob Gronkowski retired. Filling Tom Brady’s need for receiving talent is the uninspiring new group of Demaryius Thomas, Bruce Ellington, Matt LaCosse, Maurice Harris, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. On the plus side, veterans Michael Bennett and Mike Pennel should be able to replace some of the versatile upfront presence Flowers left behind.

New England still needs young blood at wideout and tight end, as well as a dominant pass rusher to keep players like Deatrich Wise and John Simon in rotational roles. With 12 picks, the Patriots could also grab an offensive tackle and — gasp! — a quarterback to potentially replace Brady one day (if he ever stops playing football).

New York Jets

New York is following a similar blueprint as Buffalo: adding talent around a second-year quarterback to help coax a giant leap out. That’s brought Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder into town to revamp the offense, while C.J. Mosley will be called upon to lead the Jets’ defense.

The team still needs to address the departures along the interior of its offensive line in order to allow Bell to feast and to keep Sam Darnold upright. New York also needs help at cornerback to allow the Jamal Adams-Marcus Maye duo to shine and an edge presence to balance out an uneven pass rush.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens lost some big names (C.J. Mosley, Joe Flacco, Terrell Suggs) and added a pair of their own in Earl Thomas and Mark Ingram. That’ll add an extra punch to the running game and provide a younger upgrade to Eric Weddle at safety, but Baltimore’s chance to repeat as AFC North champion may hinge on adding new, dynamic talent in this year’s draft.

The top priority may be giving Lamar Jackson the receiving (and tight end) talent he needs to thrive as a passer. He could use more help in the middle of his offensive line to clear a path for both him and Ingram on the ground, too. The Ravens also need pass rushers to replace the production Suggs and Za’Darius Smith left behind.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals’ quest to move on from the Marvin Lewis era meant re-signing marginal (or oft-injured) talent like Bobby Hart, C.J. Uzomah, and Tyler Eifert. Vontaze Burfict is gone though, so now the Steelers will have to drive 15 more yards than usual each time they play Cincinnati.

New coach Zac Taylor is an offensive-minded leader, but he’ll have to draft a cache of defensive talent to restore the Bengals to contender status. Cincinnati needs help in the trenches, with gaps at both defensive tackle and along the edges, and linebacker support — especially now that Burfict is gone. A quarterback to eventually take over for Andy Dalton could be on the agenda, too.

Cleveland Browns

Only the Raiders could match the Browns’ big-name activity this offseason, as new head coach Freddie Kitchens added Odell Beckham Jr., Olivier Vernon, Kareem Hunt, and Sheldon Richardson to his rising team. This influx of talent, coupled with the strong finish to 2018, has Cleveland looking like AFC North favorites for the first time in a long, long time.

There are still holes to be patched, though none especially gaping. A foundational left tackle could upgrade Baker Mayfield’s protection in 2019 and beyond. A linebacker who can be the Kirkland version of Jamie Collins and another cornerback would boost the defense. Oh, and a punter would help, too.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Le’Veon Bell? Gone. Antonio Brown? Gone. Jesse James? Also gone, but in much less dramatic fashion.

Who’s in? Mark Barron, Steven Nelson and, uh, Donte Moncrief.

So the Steelers need some fresh talent in this year’s draft. Getting an inside linebacker who can cover rangy tight ends and replace the leadership Ryan Shazier once provided would be a big win. Help at cornerback should Artie Burns never live up to his potential is also needed. And Ben Roethlisberger could use some supporting WR/TE help to keep Pittsburgh’s offensive legacy intact.

Houston Texans

The Texans lost two major components of their 2018 run when starting safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Kareem Jackson departed for eight-figure salaries elsewhere. Kevin Johnson and Christian Covington followed, leaving gaps only be partially filled by free agent signees Tashaun Gipson, Bradley Roby, and Briean Boddy-Calhoun.

Houston still needs secondary help, especially if Roby remains a bit of an enigma. But most importantly it needs to keep Deshaun Watson — who was sacked an unacceptable 62 times in 2018 — upright and healthy. Upgrading an ever-porous offensive line will be paramount to the team’s AFC South title defense.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts jumpstarted their rebuild with a handful of impact additions last offseason, but have been relatively quiet this spring despite a wealth of cap space. Indianapolis re-signed Pierre Desir, bet on Devin Funchess living up to his potential with Andrew Luck, and then lured Justin Houston north after he was released by the Chiefs to cap a small — but potent — free agent haul.

Chris Ballard absolutely nailed last year’s draft, adding two different All-Pros. This year he needs some wide receiving help behind T.Y. Hilton and Funchess, a pass rusher to thrive next to veterans Houston and Jabaal Sheard, and some secondary help to keep Desir from shouldering the entire load in the defensive backfield. He’ll have four top-90 picks to get there.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2018 was an impressive mess, and the 2019 offseason brought quarterback Nick Foles and not much else to help it. Jacksonville is betting last year’s defensive regression won’t last, adding only Green Bay linebacker Jake Ryan despite losing Tashaun Gipson and Malik Jackson. It still has several good, young players in place, but it would benefit from finding an edge rusher to pair with Yannick Ngakoue.

The Jaguars’ lack of cap space places an extra emphasis on drafting playmakers — particularly wide receivers and tight ends who can expand Foles’ margin of error. On a similar note, help at either tackle position would help keep Foles protected. He was sacked 4.5 percent the past two years in Philadelphia, while Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler were sacked on 9 percent of their dropbacks in 2018.

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee has to make a decision about whether to commit to Marcus Mariota at quarterback or not as he enters the final year of his rookie contract. The team has given him some extra weapons this offseason, signing slot receiver Adam Humphries and lineman Rodger Saffold. The latter will be particularly useful after losing both his starting guards from 2018 — Josh Kline and Quinton Spain — this spring.

Adding more playmakers would help Mariota be his best self, but a few impact defenders could transform the Titans’ defense from good to great. Tennessee needs additional depth at all three levels of the defense, including pass-rushing presences both inside and out and some safety help alongside Kevin Byard. Fortunately, the 2019 NFL Draft is loaded with those type of players.

Denver Broncos

John Elway has pegged Joe Flacco, a man with worse numbers than Case Keenum in 2018, as his Keenum replacement. And though he added Ja’Wuan James to hold down the right tackle spot, he also lost interior blockers Matt Paradis and Billy Turner in free agency, creating a need to protect the former Super Bowl MVP — or whichever rookie takes over.

Yep, quarterback is a major need Elway will have to address at the 2019 NFL Draft. So is tight end, where Jake Butt has been limited to just three games in two seasons due to injury. The Denver defense could also use an infusion of talent after backsliding in 2018. Most notably, the Broncos could use a powerful defensive tackle who can take the blocking attention away from Von Miller and Bradley Chubb along the edges.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs needed defense, but were too cash-strapped to keep the big names they already had in 2019. Eric Berry, Dee Ford, Steven Nelson, and Justin Houston are all gone from last year’s AFC finalist squad. Frank Clark, Tyrann Mathieu, and Alex Okafor will help bolster the defensive rebuild, but they’ll need help.

Kansas City enters the draft with several needs and some unappealing picks with which to fill them, especially after trading its first-round pick for Clark. It needs secondary help to keep teams from outscoring Patrick Mahomes. And, if the value is there, the Chiefs wouldn’t be too off base by picking up some interior line help to keep Mahomes upright.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers’ 2018 put them back in contention for the AFC West crown, but a tight salary cap situation meant the biggest contract they’d hand out would go to backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Los Angeles’ free agent losses were minimal — deep threat Tyrell Williams, lane-clogging DT Darius Philon, and oft-injured cornerback Jason Verrett foremost among them — so there’s a chance Philip Rivers’ team can compete in 2019 even without a new crop of rookie playmakers.

Of course, an impact draft class could be the missing piece that sends Rivers to his first Super Bowl. LA needs receiving talent to replace Williams and give Keenan Allen some downfield support — especially if Allen gets injured again. The team could also use some help along the edges to keep its veteran quarterback protected.

Oakland Raiders

Jon Gruden’s second offseason was somehow busier than his first, as he handed out massive deals to Trent Brown, Tyrell Williams, and Lamarcus Joyner after trading for unhappy Pittsburgh wideout Antonio Brown. Vontaze Burfict is also here to give John Madden flashbacks of his 1970s Oakland squads.

The Raiders are primed for a bounce back, but they’ve still got needs to address if they’re going to compete in the ultra-tough AFC West. They no longer have a Khalil Mack-like presence in the pass rush and could use help both on the edge and from the interior of their defensive line. They also need secondary help — a need that’s haunted the team for what seems like the past decade — and a useful dual-threat tailback to replace Marshawn Lynch ... whenever.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys used this offseason to keep DeMarcus Lawrence locked down and bring Jason Witten out of retirement, which is a boon for both their receiving corps and any of us who failed to mute Monday Night Football in 2018. Signing Randall Cobb adds an extra weapon for Dak Prescott, who will be without Cole Beasley and Geoff Swaim after both signed elsewhere. And while George Iloka isn’t Earl Thomas, he’ll still add value to the Dallas secondary.

But Prescott still needs targets, particularly at tight end with Witten pushing 37 years old. And that defense could use a long-term solution at safety, especially since Iloka is only signed for a single year. Getting Lawrence a pocket-crumpling running mate would be a boost as well.

New York Giants

Dave Gettleman’s reshaping of the Giants’ roster has been puzzling for much of the 2019 offseason. He traded both Odell Beckham Jr. and Olivier Vernon to the Browns, leaving big shoes to fill at wide receiver and defensive end — although the latter trade landed guard Kevin Zeitler in New York, helping to upgrade an offensive line that struggled in 2018. The Giants also lost Landon Collins, one of the best young safeties in the NFL, in free agency.

The Giants found replacements by signing receiver Golden Tate, pass rusher Markus Golden, and safety Antoine Bethea. But all three are downgrades, and the team still has work to do at the most premium positions — not to mention quarterback, where a replacement for Eli Manning needs to be found soon.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles already have a roster that should continue to be in Super Bowl contention, so the offseason has mostly just been small tinkering to make it even better. The Eagles added Malik Jackson to the defensive line, traded to bring receiver DeSean Jackson back to where his career began, and added running back Jordan Howard in another trade.

There are no holes on the roster that desperately need to be filled, but Philadelphia could stand to add defensive depth. Michael Bennett was traded away to the Patriots, leaving room for another pass rusher to be added to the mix. More help in the secondary and a replacement for 37-year-old left tackle Jason Peters could also be top priorities.

Washington

The offseason started for Washington in a big way with the addition of Landon Collins, a transformative safety who should make a gigantic difference on defense. The problem is the rest of the spring has just been depressing for the team.

Alex Smith probably won’t be back in 2019, and Washington acquired Case Keenum as the quarterback to temporarily fill those shoes. The team also signed colossal draft bust Ereck Flowers for offensive line depth, and pulled cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out of his brief retirement.

Washington is left with plenty of rebuilding to do. A quarterback of the future needs to be found at some point, but a pass rusher to complement Ryan Kerrigan may be the even higher priority. The team also needs receivers, defensive backs, and offensive linemen.

Chicago Bears

Last year, the Bears dove headfirst into free agency and then landed Khalil Mack in a trade just before the regular season. The 2019 offseason hasn’t been nearly as exciting, but it hasn’t had to be. Chicago is already a contender and tried nudging itself over the hump by signing safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and receiver Cordarrelle Patterson.

Clinton-Dix will help offset the loss of Adrian Amos, who joined the Packers in free agency. The Bears also lost cornerback Bryce Callahan and running back Jordan Howard, but the additions of Buster Skrine and Mike Davis should fill those holes.

All that leaves little work left for general manager Ryan Pace to do in the draft. The Bears could target help in the secondary, another pass rusher, or hunt for some skill position upgrades.

Detroit Lions

The coup of the offseason for the Lions was pass rusher Trey Flowers, who will make a big difference on defense if he provides more consistency than Ezekiel Ansah did. That was far from the only move Detroit made, though. The Lions also brought on cornerbacks Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin, tight end Jesse James, and receiver Danny Amendola.

Still, the roster has plenty of reconstruction left to do. Matthew Stafford needs more help, and Detroit could benefit from drafting another receiver and one of the many top tight end prospects this year. Most of all, Matt Patricia could use more pieces on defense — especially in the secondary and on a defensive line that needs to add more than just Flowers.

Green Bay Packers

It was an uncharacteristically active venture into free agency for the Packers, who added safety Adrian Amos, linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, and offensive lineman Billy Turner. All those additions free up Green Bay to use the draft to fulfill its top priority of the offseason: Make Aaron Rodgers happy.

Outside of Davante Adams, there really aren’t many receiving options that the Packers can feel comfortable with on the roster. Both receivers and tight ends could be on the draft-day wish list for Green Bay. The Packers could also stand to round out the defense with linemen and defensive backs to complement their free agent additions.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings’ defense was still good in 2018, but quarterback Kirk Cousins wasn’t the savior who pushed the team over the top. Part of his struggled can be attributed to an offensive line that failed to clear space. Minnesota hasn’t done much to fix that yet, though. It lost Nick Easton in free agency released Mike Remmers, and only spent big money to retain Anthony Barr.

Protecting Cousins is clearly the top priority heading into the draft, at both guard and tackle. Other places on the roster — like running back, wide receiver, and defensive tackle — could stand to add depth as well.

Atlanta Falcons

The offseason for the Falcons has consisted of more subtraction than addition with Tevin Coleman, Robert Alford, Andy Levitre, and Bruce Irvin all leaving as free agents. Atlanta kept the most important impending free agent, though, by giving defensive tackle Grady Jarrett the franchise tag.

Still, Matt Ryan has no shortage of weapons, and the defense has speed at linebacker and in the secondary. Now, Atlanta needs to add beef on both sides of the ball.

The defensive line will be the more important project of the two with defensive tackles and pass rushers at the top of the wish list. The offensive line needs help too, but adding James Carpenter and Jamon Brown in free agency may serve as a solid band-aid for the situation.

Carolina Panthers

It’s starting to feel like a bit of a broken record at this point: The Panthers need to upgrade Cam Newton’s supporting cast. Keeping offensive tackle Daryl Williams and signing center Matt Paradis was a start, but the offensive line could still use more help and receiving options are thin after D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel — especially after the departure of Devin Funchess.

But the bigger issue is a defensive line that has Kawann Short, Mario Addison, and not much else. Julius Peppers finally retired and that leaves pass rusher as the clear top priority for the team heading into the draft.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints didn’t need to do much this offseason after a 13-win season, and that’s good because they didn’t have many resources to use. New Orleans needs cap space in the reserves to lock down Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara for the future. But the team still managed to tinker away in free agency and add tight end Jared Cook and center Nick Easton. It lost pass rusher Alex Okafor and running back Mark Ingram, but replaced the latter with Latavius Murray.

New Orleans isn’t scheduled to make its first draft pick until late in the second round, but there’s no single pressing need that the Saints have to address. Adding a defensive tackle, wide receiver, or cornerback who can contribute as a rookie could be all it takes to push the Saints over the top.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bruce Arians’ first year coaching in Tampa looks like a rebuilding one. The Bucs made few big moves this offseason; their most expensive signing of the spring was punter Bradley Pinion. Kwon Alexander, Adam Humphries, and even Ryan Fitzpatrick have all moved on from Tampa Bay, leaving Arians with an opportunity to shape the team in his image.

Alexander’s departure leaves a hole in the middle of the defense, and the receiving corps are pretty limited after Mike Evans thanks to Humphries’ departure and the trade that shipped DeSean Jackson back to Philadelphia. Some high-upside defensive backs would also help bolster one of the league’s worst passing defenses — and allow quarterback Jameis Winston to win some games that aren’t shootouts.

Arizona Cardinals

While the Cardinals made some minor moves to improve an awful roster this offseason, their rebound from 2018’s bottoming-out will come through the draft. Defenders like Jordan Hicks, Darius Philon, and Robert Alford were strong supporting additions, but players like J.R. Sweezy, Charles Clay, and a 36-year-old Terrell Suggs probably aren’t going to be instrumental to the team’s rebuild.

Kyler Murray would, however. Taking a second straight first-round quarterback would give debuting head coach Kliff Kingsbury a passer he’s long coveted and make Arizona infinitely more entertaining. The Cardinals need plenty of help elsewhere, no matter who their 2019 QB is — restocking the team’s offensive line and receiving corps should be a priority during the draft.

Los Angeles Rams

2019 has been a measured offseason for a Rams team that built an NFC champion over the course of the previous two years. Starters like Lamarcus Joyner, Rodger Saffold, and Mark Barron have departed, replaced by Eric Weddle, Clay Matthews, and whomever can step up either in this year’s draft or from previous drafts.

The reigning NFC West champs aren’t hurting for talent, but an aging secondary could use reinforcements — many of which will be available at the end of the first round. There’s need up front, too, especially since it appears Ndamukong Suh won’t be returning to Los Angeles this fall.

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco lost a season due to quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s knee injury, but 2019 should bring improvements thanks to the expensive addition of linebacker Kwon Alexander and pass rusher Dee Ford, and the low-risk, high-reward signings of Tevin Coleman, Jordan Matthews, and Jason Verrett. The free agent losses were minimal, too — the biggest names leaving Santa Clara were punter Bradley Pinion and rotational pass rusher Cassius Marsh.

The Niners have premier position in this year’s draft, which should allow them to pick up the pass-rushing talent they need with the No. 2 selection. Their second-round spot will yield a solid group of young receivers to team up with Marquise Goodwin, George Kittle, and Dante Pettis and push Garoppolo to a resurgent season. A little extra blocking wouldn’t hurt, either.

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle’s latest attempt to protect Russell Wilson swaps out J.R. Sweezy for Mike Iupati, which is a step in the right direction but probably not enough for Wilson to avoid being one of the league’s most-sacked QBs again. While retaining K.J. Wright and the awaiting-sentence-for-insider-trading Mychal Kendricks helps, that won’t offset the losses of defenders like Shamar Stephen, Justin Coleman, Frank Clark, and especially Earl Thomas.

If the Seahawks want to stave off a decline, they’ll have to add some defensive talent both up front and in the backfield to provide at least a passable imitation of the former Legion of Boom. Wilson still needs help too — not just from a cheesecloth offensive line, but also from a group of wide receiver and tight end targets led by Tyler Lockett and a 31-year-old Doug Baldwin.

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"A win is vital", "Cannot afford to drop points" - Fan Predictions: Chelsea vs West Ham

Chelsea host West Ham on Monday night in another London derby which both sides will be hoping to win in order to establish themselves in the top four and climb into the top ten, respectively.

The Blues’ win over Brighton on Wednesday surely delighted fans who have been clamouring for the sight of Callum Hudson-Odoi in a Premier League starting XI, while the Hammers’ difficult period continued with a 2-0 loss at home to Everton.

While recent form tips heavily in the home side’s favour, the visitors have got the better of results in the last three meetings between the two; the Irons are unbeaten against the Stamford Bridge outfit since March 2017, when they lost 2-1 – they will be hoping to extend that run next time out.

This week’s expert fans, West Ham-mad former Football FanCast editor-in-chief James Jones and Transfer Tavern assistant editor and Chelsea nut George Blake, share their thoughts and predictions ahead of Matchweek 33’s standout fixture…

Wednesday night saw rare starts for Callum Hudson-Odoi and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, should Maurizio Sarri start one, both or neither on Monday?

George: “Both Hudson-Odoi and Loftus-Cheek looked good against Brighton, and objectively speaking, they should both play. Mateo Kovacic and Ross Barkley have both struggled lately, whilst Pedro and Willian also haven’t been great.

“That said, there’s no chance that Hudson-Odoi will play again, especially with the Europa League coming back next week, so it’s safe to rule him out from having a starting berth. Loftus-Cheek is an interesting one, as he seems to be perfectly suited for the system, and he’s been so much better than all his competitors of late. He should start, but with Sarri, you just never know.”

James: “I think he has to start both of them. They’re hungry, as we saw with their performances on Wednesday night, and Chelsea need players who are hungry and eager to impress if they’re to finish in the top four.

“The last few months have been difficult for them and they’re in danger of seeing their season end in bitter disappointment unless changes are made. Bringing both of these players in is a positive change and equally, why would you change a winning team if you don’t have to?”

Recently called-up England man Hudson-Odoi impressed greatly on his maiden start for the Blues in the league, assisting Olivier Giroud for the opener, while his international teammate Loftus-Cheek also laid on a goal and netted a beauty from outside of the box.

The pair haven’t featured nearly as frequently as they deserve to, with Sarri preferring experience in his starting XI regardless of the outstanding performances registered by the aforementioned duo in the European and cup competitions.

Hopefully, the pair’s sparkling showings at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night will finally leave Sarri with no excuse not to give them the nod ahead of the likes of Barkley and Willian more often in the future – they certainly have the quality to feature week-in, week-out for the Blues.

West Ham spent big last summer. Should they be looking at selling as much at the end of this season?

James: “The aftermath of such big and impressive investment last summer was that it has exaggerated the fact the squad is riddled with average players and dead wood, all of which should be shown the door this summer.

“Ninety per cent of West Ham’s summer additions have impressed and strengthened the squad and barring a handful of other players, the rest of the team have not done enough to suggest they deserve to remain at the club beyond the summer.

“Where Arnautovic is concerned, he is a special case. Had he not had his head turned by China in January, we would be talking about whether West Ham would be able to keep him this summer, but instead all the talk and expectation is of him sold as soon as possible.

“If Pellegrini is able to bring in some good money for the deadwood and reinvest well, then he’ll deserve a big pat on the back for transforming the quality of the squad in the space of just 12-18 months.”

George: “It’s clear that a bit of a clear-out is needed at the London Stadium this summer. Pellegrini has done well, but there’s a lot of deadwood in the squad that could be moved on in an effort to revamp the team.

“Going forward, especially, I think there’s a big job to be done, given that the trio of Javier Hernandez, Arnautovic and Andy Carroll are all approaching or are now beyond 30. An injection of youth is needed, and this is likely to be funded by sales.”

Indeed, West Ham’s summer recruitment, including the appointment of Pellegrini, has proved successful over the course of the season, with Felipe Anderson, Issa Diop and Lukasz Fabianski impressing in particular. For every Fabian Balbuena, though, there is a Jack Wilshere or a Lucas Perez, both of whom have been huge flops since signing from Arsenal.

James is spot on with his assessment of the Arnautovic situation, meanwhile – had he not tried to force an exit then surely the conversations regarding the possibility of a summer departure would be opposing, rather than supporting. The Austrian hasn’t been quite the same since he got a glimpse of the Chinese big bucks, and has hardly featured in recent months.

Where do you think the Hammers can hurt their hosts? 

George: “A lot of Chelsea’s strength comes from the midfield – but so do a lot of our weaknesses. Namely, if West Ham are able to get a chokehold on Jorginho, that will severely limit our ability to move forward with any sort of fluidity, whilst he’s also an important player for us defensively.

“Add to that the fact that our left-sided midfielders are chopped and changed so often, with Ross Barkley and Mateo Kovacic both incredibly inconsistent this season, and there’s a lot of scope for exploitation in this area. If you stop the midfield, you stop the Blues.”

James: “By playing in the exact same way as they did when Chelsea visited Stratford earlier this season – the game plan was to allow Jorginho all the time on the ball and to concentrate on cutting off his options, man marking the likes of Eden Hazard, Pedro and Willian.

“It worked wonders as West Ham could’ve won the game, but had to settle for a very good 0-0 instead. Given that Chelsea and Sarri are still playing in the same way, logic says go there and try to do it again.”

The Hammers held their London neighbours to a stalemate at the London Stadium in September, with Pellegrini nailing his tactics and setting an example to the rest of the league as to how Chelsea can be stopped – the formula consists of nullifying Jorginho.

The Italian might get an earful from the Stamford Bridge faithful on an almost weekly basis but he remains the lynchpin in the side – he’s crucial to Chelsea playing the way Sarri wants.

The fact remains that if you can stop the Chelsea number 5 from getting on the ball or cut out his passing lines then your odds of getting a result skyrocket.

Is there one thing you think Chelsea must take from their midweek game into this one?

James: “Confidence and a winning mentality. They simply cannot afford to drop points at this stage of the season with a top four place at stake. With the advantage of being at home, Chelsea should be heading into this game with confidence, especially against a West Ham side that played so poorly last time out and whose season is essentially over.”

George: “I think Maurizio Sarri just needs to bring rotation into the fold at Chelsea. His lack of rotation has been laughable at points this season, with sub-par players being picked repeatedly.

“He changed that against Brighton, the likes of Olivier Giroud, Andreas Christensen and the aforementioned Callum Hudson-Odoi and Ruben Loftus-Cheek all coming in. That changed the game for the Blues, and if the boss reverts back to the same system as he has previously, we could be in trouble.”

Check out the below above to see football played as you’ve never seen it before… in a maze!

The likes of Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp have shown this season that rotating – sometimes, in the former’s case, entire starting XIs – is a surefire way to ensuring that you have fresh legs each week and remain unpredictable. Sarri, on the other hand, has a very definitive idea of who his best XI is and he is very reluctant to adjust that, despite weekly outcry.

As George says, though, the surprise appearances of the aforementioned Three Lions duo, Giroud and Christensen proved effective; Sarri would be mad to bench them all. If there’s anyone that would, though, it’s the Neapolitan.

Finally, what are your score predictions?

George: “It’s never an easy fixture, and a lot of it depends on who plays on the day. That said, a win is vital, so let’s go for 3-1 Chelsea.”

James: “I wouldn’t be surprised to see West Ham take something from this game as they’ve had lots of success against top six opposition this season. A win may be a bit beyond them but a point is more than achievable, so I’ll go with a 1-1 draw.”

from FootballFanCast.com http://bit.ly/2OUKnJn via IFTTT from Blogger http://bit.ly/2IaO7WL via IFTTT

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Blown Leads, Bad Calls, and Great Defense: Ten Takeaways from the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend

Wild card weekend was.. decent, I guess? The games were entertaining, but the quality of play (and officiating) left something to be desired.

It began with a Saturday evening comeback that could instead be viewed as a horrendously blown lead. Atlanta got the road upset, the Saints hung on, and the Jags and Bills played one of the worst playoff games in recent memory, unless you really, really appreciate defense.

The Eagles get the Falcons this weekend, which I think most people agreed was the best possible matchup for Nick Foles and company. We’ll break that down in a separate post.

But if we’re looking for one overarching theme, I’d say that the Birds should feel good about their playoff chances, since I wasn’t overly impressed by what either NFC winner did this week.

Were you?

  1) Situational football

The difference in the Atlanta/LA matchup was the Falcons’ smart game management and mix of plays. They controlled the ball for 37:35 while the NFL’s best offense only had it for 22:25.

The Falcons used 33 called running plays and 36 passing plays, three of which became sacks and three that turned into scrambles. When they did toss it, they kept it short, throwing for about four air yards per pass. It was a balanced output that took advantage of two Los Angeles special teams turnovers, allowing the Falcons to jump out to a 13-0 lead.

That was experience on display, with a #6 seed going on the road but showing the same smarts and savvy that took them to last year’s Super Bowl.

  2) Dirty bird defense

Todd Gurley finished with 14 carries for 101 yards. Robert Woods had 9 receptions for 142 yards. Cooper Kupp grabbed 8 for 69 and a score. LA finished with 40 more yards than Atlanta.

But the Falcons won in other areas, limiting Gurley to four catches for just 10 yards, which was his third-lowest total on the season. Sammy Watkins had one snag for 28 yards. Combined, the pair mustered only 38 receiving yards on 14 total targets. That’s inefficiency right there, with just 14.6% Jared Goff’s yardage coming on 31% of his attempts.

The Rams went 5-14 on third down for a 35.7% success rate, well below the 41.1 number that placed them top-10 in the regular season. And they were just 1-3 on 4th down.

The Falcons have a smaller and faster defense that moves well in space and makes big plays. Defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel was a journeyman safety who played eight NFL seasons and worked as a Seattle assistant during the Legion of Boom era. He should start getting some national recognition for the job he’s doing in Atlanta.

  3) Jared Goff

He’s a player. He’ll be around for a long time, leading a young team with a young coach that has talent on both sides of the ball. I think the turnovers put the Rams behind the eight ball, a squad with zero playoff experience, let alone playing from behind.

But even during the comeback attempt, he was throwing into some tight areas that would make Hall of Famers blush.

This was one of the best passes of the entire NFL weekend, with Goff stepping through the pocket on a third and 10 in his own territory:

DIME.

WOW, @JaredGoff16. #ATLvsLAR #LARams http://pic.twitter.com/vOXr6WKzdk

— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2018

And a freeze frame, just for good measure:

Jared Goff fit this into the smallest possible window http://pic.twitter.com/wOz7xI9BC5

— SB Nation NFL (@SBNationNFL) January 7, 2018

Nick Foles would run backwards and sideways there and probably take a sack or throw it out of bounds.

  4) Who dat?

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram contributed 68 scrimmage yards and the Saints still won.

There was a first half surge where I thought New Orleans might blow Carolina out of the water, but that wasn’t the case at all. This game was closer than predicted.

Drew Brees picked up the slack through the air, going for 376 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception on a highly questionable 4th and 2 call at the end of the game. That was Sean Payton trying to ice it with about two minutes left, which almost backfired badly.

But the Saints’ defense forced an intentional grounding and finished with a sack on the Panthers’ final drive, doing enough to get the job done against a Carolina team that came in with a good game plan.

More than anything, I wasn’t floored by the New Orleans performance. I still think they’re a difficult matchup for the Eagles, but here’s a team that lost five games in 2017 and didn’t appear to be the well-oiled machine we’re used to seeing out there. Their trip to Minnesota is probably the best matchup of the divisional round.

  5) Panthers and protocol

They started strong, then dropped a touchdown, missed a field goal, and quickly found themselves down 14-3.

Credit to Carolina though, I thought they might get clobbered, but they fought back to within a score and had a chance to win it at the end.

I think the division rival narrative was a little underplayed here. Sure, the Saints beat the Panthers twice in the regular season, but three wins against a team you see more frequently than others is somewhat difficult to pull off.

Cam Newton finished 24-40 for 349 yards and two touchdowns. There was an outcry from Twitter doctors after he appeared to play through a fourth-quarter concussion, but Newton said that wasn’t the case after this play:

Cam Newton just hit a brick wall. http://pic.twitter.com/wHc3VicfhF

— 360°FantasyFootball (@360FFB) January 8, 2018

Newton explained that he was poked in the eye, as the contact made his helmet come down over his forehead, and disputed the idea that he was concussed.

That seems to be contradicted by this video:

This "Cam Newton's visor poked him in the eye" is the greatest storyline in the history of sports. And I'm saying that as a former WWE wrestler. Watch the video, you don't collapse after that him because you need ice on your face. It's a #concussion. http://pic.twitter.com/fgsMiai3et

— Chris Nowinski, Ph.D. (@ChrisNowinski1) January 8, 2018

But that could also be embellishment to buy time for the backup quarterback to warm up on the sidelines, right?

I don’t know. I really don’t know. Newton looked pretty good on the field after that, and I’m just a guy sitting at home, watching on TV, so that’s how qualified I am to pass judgment here.

  6) Terrible quarterback play

Buffalo vs. Jacksonville had the feeling of a 1 p.m. Week 3 game, with two of the NFL’s worst signal callers squaring off.

Tyrod Taylor finished 17-37 for 134 yards and an interception.

Blake Bortles was 12-23 for 87 yards and a touchdown.

Both were starting their first playoff game and both were pretty pitiful, but Bortles did some improvisational damage with 88 rushing yards on 10 attempts. That was probably the difference, as Jacksonville eventually found the red zone and scored on a one-yard, play action pass.

You could hear Tony Romo going through various stages of anguish having to call this game. Romo, who played in just six playoff games during his career, was assigned a Taylor/Bortles game in his first color commentary postseason gig.

Talk about rough:

  7) Jacksonville Jag-wires

Of the remaining teams, they most resemble the Eagles, a squad with an excellent defense and suspect QB play.

They beat the Steelers 30-9 back in Week 5 on the strength of five interceptions. Jacksonville’s defense has held opponents to 10 or fewer points nine times this season. They are legit in every way.

Here’s a stat worth mentioning, courtesy of ESPN:

“Since drafting Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, the Steelers have a losing home record against two teams (including playoffs). Those teams are the Patriots (2-5)…..and the Jaguars (1-4).”

And those are the two squads the Steelers have to go through to get to the Super Bowl. Both won at Heinz Field this season.

I’d be stunned if Jacksonville does it again this weekend, but the box score and theme from that game wasn’t entirely dissimilar from what happened yesterday. Bortles was 8-14 for 95 yards and an interception. But the Jags’ ground game was working, and Leonard Fournette ripped off 181 yards and 2 touchdowns on 28 carries back in Week 5, while Pittsburgh did this:

Jax has proven they can win while Bortles plays like shit, so we’ll see if their defense can get it done for a second time this season in Pittsburgh.

  8) The Bills Mafia

I respect the enthusiasm of a fan base that hadn’t been to the playoffs in forever.

And when you jump through flaming tables in the parking lot, that’s wild, too.

But when Bill Cowher does it during the pregame show, it’s probably dead:

Bill Cowher just joined #BillsMafia! http://pic.twitter.com/HHlAHKUML2

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 7, 2018

Buffalo needs a franchise quarterback. I’m not sure who it is.

  9) Marcus Mariota

Speaking of franchise quarterbacks, does that label apply to Marcus Mariota? He went 7-7 on third down in the second half against Kansas City, shaking off a poor first half and completing a 19-0 run to steal a win on the road.

Mariota’s first career playoff touchdown pass was thrown to himself:

Marcus Mariota just caught his own pass for a @Titans TD!!

Not a typo.#TitanUp #NFLPlayoffs http://pic.twitter.com/bDBVukfZuY

— NFL (@NFL) January 6, 2018

Gisele Bundchen once said, “My husband cannot fucking throw the ball and catch the ball at the same time,” which no longer holds true, apparently.

But in all seriousness, Mariota was impressive in the second half. He made some plays, Derrick Henry ran the ball like a beast, and the QB actually threw a great block on the clock-killing final drive:

  10) Gotta do a better job

Andy Reid has now lost 13 playoff games.

He’s 1-7 in his last eight postseason games.

Saturday, his team blew an 18-point first half lead.

I’m not a guy who cheers against Andy. I appreciate what he did in Philadelphia, even if he never won the Super Bowl.

Yeah, Alex Smith could have made a few second half plays. Yeah, the drops hurt the offense. Yeah, Travis Kelce was sorely missed. And the defense was not the same in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

But when you’re winning by multiple scores and Kareem Hunt finishes with 11 carries, it’s indefensible.

  Feel bad for Andy Reid. I mean, it's hard to get the ball to your running back when you're only leading by two scores for most of the game http://pic.twitter.com/QLnByqiydS

— Ryan McCrystal (@Ryan_McCrystal) January 7, 2018

Also, the worst call of the weekend (and there were many) took place during this game, when a Mariota fumble was somehow overturned because his “forward progress” was stopped during a sack.

If this isn’t a fumble, then 50% of NFL turnovers have been incorrectly ruled over the past 35 years:

Derrick Johnson crunches Mariota. Drive ends in a Tennessee field goal after a shoulda been fumble recovery by KC. http://pic.twitter.com/IRVAXar7sW

— Chiefs Kingdom (@__chiefskingdom) January 6, 2018

I don’t know how NFL officiating becomes progressively worse, year after year.

Blown Leads, Bad Calls, and Great Defense: Ten Takeaways from the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

[jodyedgarus]

Beside The Points For Monday, Jan. 8, 2017

Things That Caught My Eye

CFB Championship game preview

Nick Saban’s Alabama will play former mentee Kirby Smart’s Georgia, and it’s bound to be a great game. Saban has won all 11 games played by former assistants by an average of 28 points, but Georgia is no big underdog here: they beat offensive powerhouse Oklahoma in the playoff and will be strong contenders against last year’s runner up. [ESPN]

Somehow the Patriots even won the bye week

The New England Patriots, which did not play football this past weekend, saw their chances of winning the Super Bowl rise from 31 percent to 34 percent. This came because of several key upsets: They’ll face a Tennessee Titans squad that currently has the lowest Elo rating among teams still in the playoffs, with one substantial AFC contender in Kansas City out of the postseason. [FiveThirtyEight]

Blake Bortles, Jaguars running back

Blake Bortles rushed for 88 yards in the Jaguars victory, 71 yard in scrambles, behind only Colin Kaepernick when it comes to postseason scrambling yards in the past 10 postseasons. Leonard Fournette, an actual running back for the Jags, ran only 57 yards. [ESPN]

Olympic quality in four months

Erin Jackson made the Olympic team for long-track speedskating after pulling third place in the U.S. Speedskating Trials. More remarkable: Jackson — who will be the first black woman to make the team for long-track speedskating — has only been training full time for four months after being an inline speed skater for 15 years. [Deadspin]

Try out our interactive, Which World Cup Team Should You Root For?

The one percent, but tennis

Prize money in tennis is incredibly disproportionate, with highly ranked players raking in millions — the top 128 players who qualify for each of the four Grand Slam titles make 18 percent of the total prize money. Those ranked between 200 and 2,000 make almost nothing. [Digg]

Twelve is enough

While those on the outside of the NFL playoffs looking in may long for an expanded field of perhaps 16 playoff teams rather than 12, the difference between a five seed and a six seed and a hypothetical seventh seed or eighth seed is pretty vast. We can find this by looking at Defense-adjusted Value Over Average — a way to describe a team’s efficiency — since 2002. The average DVOA of a fifth seed and sixth seed (11.1 percent an 12.3 percent, respectively) is considerably higher than the DVOA of what would have been the seventh and eighth seeds (4.9 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively). [FiveThirtyEight]

Make sure to try your hand at our fun NFL game: Can you beat the FiveThirtyEight predictions?

Big Number

88.2 percent

That’s the offensive efficiency rating for Alabama, just a hair lower than 88.7 percent, the defensive efficiency rating of Georgia. These teams are remarkably well matched across the board based on their efficiency ratings. [ESPN]

Leaks from Slack:

neil:

Well another great Andy Reid playoff performance

walt:

it’s incredible

neil:

Also, Mariota could literally fill out an entire football team — he has run, thrown, caught a TD from himself, and threw a pancake block on the game-sealing run

walt:

gruden seemed to imply he was calling a lot of those plays during that big drive all he’s gotta do is read up on cap space and he can be the whole front office as well

Predictions

NFL

See more NFL predictions

NBA

See more NBA predictions

College Football

See more college football predictions

Oh, and don’t forget

BORTLES!

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/beside-the-points-for-monday-jan-8-2017/

[theteablogger]

Did you ever hear from Necromommycon again?

I’ve been kind of checked out for a bit because my spouse had a serious accident--they’re okay, but their mobility will be limited for a while--so I just looked through my e-mail, PMs, etc. in case I missed something. I haven’t heard from her at all since November 4.

[junker-town]

The Steelers have the preseason’s best backup quarterback battle

Ben Roethlisberger is still there — but who steps up when he gets hurt?

Ben Roethlisberger isn’t injury prone. Given the amount of hits he absorbs every season, he might just be the league’s most durable player.

But as he ages into his late 30s, he’s no longer a lock to play all 16 games in the regular season. That means the Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the most important backup quarterback positions in the NFL — and they’ve got three players battling for that spot in the 2018 preseason.

Roethlisberger has missed at least one game in each of the last three seasons, turning starting duties over to an aging Michael Vick and former fourth-round pick Landry Jones in that span. Those backup quarterbacks went 4-3 in games where Roethlisberger didn’t play — not bad, but their 57.1 percent win rate was lower than the starter’s 73.2 percent mark (30-11) over the same span.

Pittsburgh has put in work to fix this problem. The past two drafts have brought Joshua Dobbs (a fourth-round pick in 2017) and Mason Rudolph (a third-round pick in 2018) into the fold to serve as problem solvers in both the present and the future. In the process they created another problem — having to figure who stays and who goes from this year’s depth chart.

The Steelers are going to have to cut at least one notable quarterback this fall

Some NFL teams keep three quarterbacks on their roster. Most keep two, sometimes with a third option stashed on the practice squad. Pittsburgh currently has four quarterbacks, none of whom are realistic practice squad candidates. At least one of the team’s quarterbacks is getting cut.

It won’t be Roethlisberger. Giving up on Rudolph months after spending a third-round pick on him is extremely unlikely. The most likely choice is either Jones or Dobbs.

Jones has been a useful backup the past three seasons, but its clear the franchise has no expectation that he’ll be the team’s quarterback of the future — if it did, it wouldn’t have spent draft capital on passers in back-to-back drafts. He’s got too much experience to slide to the practice squad, but just enough to make himself attractive to other teams.

The five-year veteran is 3-2 as a starter, but somehow all three of those wins came over the Browns — and in one, he only attempted four passes before being replaced by a returning Roethlisberger. He threw for 281 yards against the Patriots in 2016, but needed 47 attempts to get there.

Despite those flaws, he’s also got a career 86.2 passer rating, which is higher than current backups and spot starters like Mike Glennon, Josh McCown, Brandon Weeden, and even Blake Bortles. There’s a place for him in the league, and he’ll find a spot elsewhere if the Steelers release him — possibly even with a division rival, since the Bengals could use an established, non-Matt Barkley backup behind Andy Dalton.

That makes it difficult to release Jones, but...

Joshua Dobbs is playing well enough that the Steelers won’t be able to sneak him onto the practice squad

Dobbs was a flier pick out of the University of Tennessee in 2017, and the Steelers haven’t been clear on what his role is with the club over the last two seasons. He earned the opportunity to start a three of Pittsburgh’s preseason games in ‘17 and was solid against the Panthers, but didn’t show enough during the regular season to earn a single pass as a rookie. The club even sat him through a meaningless Week 17 win over the Browns where Roethlisberger took the week off, opting for four quarters of Jones instead.

That put his roster spot in jeopardy in 2018, even if he’s just six months older than Rudolph. A solid start to the preseason will make the Steelers’ decision a bit tougher. Through two games, Dobbs has completed 21 of his 31 passes for 283 yards and three touchdowns — good for a 101.9 quarterback rating, albeit against second- and third-string defenses. That’s better than Rudolph, who has completed just 50 percent of his attempts and been sacked on more than 17 percent of his dropbacks as a pro.

While his stats suggest Dobbs has earned a spot on the main roster, they don’t paint a complete picture of his play. He struggles with his decision making in the pocket, scrambling well but occasionally blowing up his own plays by bailing on his blockers. More importantly, he struggles to identify coverage, leading to five interceptions in six preseason games, including a pick-six against the Packers last week. That’s a flaw he’s struggled to overcome since his days with the Volunteers — and 2018’s preseason is proof he hasn’t yet grown out of it. It’s clear he’s not a starter.

Still, he’s 23 and has shown off a penchant for playmaking as a pro quarterback. The potential is there if another team has the patience — and the roster spot — to pull it off. The Steelers can cut him and hope he’ll sneak through waivers and back to the practice squad, but it seems unlikely.

Pittsburgh has two more weeks to figure this out

The Steelers will have a difficult decision when final rosters are due. At least one of the Jones-Dobbs-Rudolph trio is headed to the waiver wire, and whomever gets cut won’t stay unemployed for long. Jones has too much experience for the practice squad and Dobbs and Rudolph are too young and have too much potential to survive waivers in a quarterback-hungry league.

Pittsburgh has to plan for its present and future, and a wealth of passers — even if they’re flawed, behind Roethlisberger — is a good problem to have. All three players have the ability to win games for the Steelers. Rudolph is the least equipped to handle backup duties in 2018, but he could develop into Roethlisberger’s heir. Jones is pretty close to his ceiling as an NFL quarterback if he hasn’t hit it already, but he’s proven he can beat AFC North teams ...or, at least, the Browns. Dobbs is somewhere in between those two, and it could mean his tenure in western Pennsylvania ends in September.

But no matter who gets cut, Pittsburgh’s loss will be some needy’s team’s gain. If your team needs a backup quarterback, it’ll be worth watching the Steelers’ final two games this preseason.

[neoraven]

2017 NFL Season Predictions - AFC Win Totals

A note about this and my process! These are win predictions, not firm power rankings and direct comparisons of quality. I haven't done any analysis of whether these win totals "work out" in the math of it. I know it doesn't look like there are enough "playoff teams" (only 5 with 9+ wins), but whatever. But I think this just means that the 6th playoff spot is really up for grabs in my opinion. The half games are obviously me cheating. When I get to a game in the schedule that feels like a genuine tossup, I give half a win. NFC version of this post will be coming out sometime before Sunday noon kickoff. Also, I hearby swear that I typed all these words before week 1 kicked off, including no changes to Pats/Chiefs even though I firmly had a Pats win in both predictions. I will probably screw up the other way to compensate. I flip flopped between sorting them by divisions or in descending order, and have kinda split the difference into rough tiers.

Playoff Teams

New England Patriots [13.5] They're the preseason champs of nearly every power ranking or prognostication. Their Vegas odds are double the next team at more sportsbooks. Losing Edelman hurts, but the strength of the Belichick era has always been replacing parts. I'm not going to go as far as saying a perfect season or a runaway Superbowl champ. But they'll have absolutely no trouble winning the AFC East.

Pittsburgh Steelers [12.5] They sit very firmly at the 1a spot behind the Patriots. They're immensely talented all over, and have a great coach and consistent leadership. They're also going to fully take advantage of a weaker division and weaker schedule to likely coast to a first-round bye.

Tennessee Titans [11.5] I'm not going to pretend to hide my homerism or bias for the Titans, but I'm still pretty confident this is the year they figure out how to beat the worst teams in all of football. They're also undoubtedly one of the offseason champions after upgrading WR and CB drastically through their draft and free agency. Marcus Mariota is only going to get better, and I think we haven't seen close to his best in the NFL yet. Even if the offensive line takes a step back from #1, it's still a talented team in a bad division on the right side of injury luck as the season stops. This team could not only win the division, but contend for the #2 seed if everything falls right.

Oakland Raiders [10.5] I believe the Raiders kind of peaked last season with their 12 wins. They'll still probably win the AFC West, but they'll struggle to repeat the highs of last season. I'm not sold on Derek Carr, despite his steady and constant improvement over his three seasons. Despite Khalil Mack being a legitimate star, the defense is going to lose them some games this year.

Kansas City Chiefs [10] Andy Reid has been grinding out double digit wins in Kansas City for a little bit now, and he'll just barely keep at that pace this year. Losing their starting RB isn't as bad as it could be, given their offense. Kareem Hunt is poised to shine in the full-time role in the run-heavy scheme.

Playoff Maybes

Cincinnati Bengals [8.5] Despite Marvin Lewis' dismal playoff record, the Bengals have made the playoffs 6 of the past 8 years. Last year's 6-win season looks like a fluke from bad injury luck, but they'll still struggle to be much better and break through deep into the playoffs. The head coach's contract year will end in frustration and uncertainty. If they sneak into the playoffs, this team doesn't look like the juggernaut to push them into the divisional round for the first time in 30 years.

Baltimore Ravens [8] Despite a heavy investment on an already-good defense, the Ravens will keep treading water. No offense to Joe Flacco, but this team is barely holding on to the edge between contender and barely good. They could sneak into the playoffs with a perfect record in close games, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Houston Texans [8] Tom Savage and JJ Watt helm the most divergent units in the NFL. The defense is as good as the offense is bad. So, my easy prediction for this yin and yang and cancelling out is that the Texans will be firmly a .500 team, depending on when Savage gets launched into the sun in favor of DeShaun Watson.

Miami Dolphins [8] It's easy to forget that they were a playoff team last season. They're also going to benefit from 4 games against the Bills and Jets, but they'll probably hit .500 on the dot. Jay Cutler will be a little better than expected, and the rest of the team will hold up around him. Playing fifteen straight games due to the Irma cancellation is brutal, but keeping the home game in a London season is probably a little more important.

Los Angeles Chargers [7.5] Improving on 5 wins will be easy for the new head coach, despite the brutal division. However, they're still mostly the same team with the same rash of injury problems. The disruption from moving to LA will probably cost them half a win or so as well, despite Phillip Rivers' mobile film room commute.

See You Next Season

Indianapolis Colts [7] This is a team in a messy transition. It's not exactly rebuilding with Andrew Luck's immense talent in the mix. But it's a bit of a dire situation with him making nearly zero progress toward recovery on his injured shoulder. The only positive sign was that he wasn't completely put on IR or the other 6-8 game long unable to play list. Depending on how long Luck is hurt, and how bad Tolzein and Brissett are getting thrown into the fire, the floor of the season could fall out and drop them below the Jaguars.

Denver Broncos [6] John Elway's squad, ironically, can't find a QB to save their life. Another lopsided squad to make the Texans blush, this elite defense can't find the endzone enough to win every game on their own. Von Miller might have another great season wasted as the QB position stumbles through a combo of Trevor Siemien, Paxton Lynch, and Brock Osweiler (yes, back again). They'll drop back from playoff contention when the QB situation gets especially bad.

Buffalo Bills [5.5] If not for the Jets, the Bills would be comfortably tanking at the bottom of the division. However, some parts of the Bills are way too damn good. Like McCoy, the offensive line, and rookie Zay Jones. They'll be stuck in that limbo between a single digit draft pick and the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars [5.5] Improving on a 3-win team is pretty easy, and the Jags will be able to do that. Coughlin running things is a good sign, as well as the influx of talent on defense. But you only go so far with Blake Bortles throwing passes, and that's not out of the basement of the extremely awful AFC South. Also, throwing in there that Fournette will be a beast with some great plays and stats no matter how dismal the passing game gets.

New York Jets [2.5] This team sucks, and won't be fun for anyone involved by design. I don't know how else to put it. I'm not bold enough to predict that they get zero wins, but each one they squeak out will be a minor miracle. They have a pretty soft schedule, including hosting the Jaguars, Bills, and Chargers after a cross-country trip.

Cleveland Browns [2.5] Browns fans, I have good news and bad news for you. The good news is - the Browns will be fighting for relevant results in the last month of the season. The bad news - this will be a fight for the first overall draft pick yet again. It's really easy to detail all the ways the Browns suck and all the reasons they'll never win a game. But here's two reasons they could improve on last season - hosting the Jets and Jaguars. Get well soon, Myles Garrett.

[theteablogger]

Why do you think returnofthenecromommycon lied the way she did? I find the sloppiness of her lie the most confusing part of the story. I'm sorry for your shock and sadness that she turned out to be like this.

I wish I knew. The sloppiness confused me, too. When I got over the initial shock, I remember staring at her message and thinking, “I just told you how I found all these connections between you and Thanfictioning, and you think I would have overlooked something as basic as the dates on your posts?” Maybe she thought I’d forgotten the dates or something, and wouldn’t be able to go back and check because she’d deleted the blog--but she should know by now that I save everything. She replied to my ask with an “I’m on my phone; will reply asap” message about an hour before answering my PM. Obviously she cared what I thought and what other people would think, or she wouldn’t have answered me at all, but either she was so flustered this that was the best lie she could come up with in an hour, or she thought I had the world’s worst observational skills. Maybe she thought I’d just take whatever she said at face value, since I’d indicated that I had some level of trust in her.

I’ve been looking back through her old Tumblrs on archive.org and trying to figure out what the fuck I missed. Honestly, I’m still not sure. At least, not up to the point this summer when she said that she still liked Andy and was still in contact with him. For four years before that, though, she acknowledged that Andy was a liar who had abused people; she analyzed his manipulative strategies and compared him to a pick-up artist; she expressed empathy for Abbey, Diamond, and the DAYDians; and she shared quite a few messages she and Andy had exchanged. 

But I also found this, from March 2013:

This was the year before she shared Andy’s 2011 LJ messages about Brittany, his mental health, etc. I wasn’t blogging then, but even if I had been, she probably wouldn’t have been on my radar. And I’ve never seen any reason to dig through anyone’s archive other than Andy’s, unless I was looking for a particular post that I wanted to cite. I guess if I’d done that back in 2014, this might have raised a red flag. Or it might not, because Necromommycon was open about having been friends with Andy. She never tried to hide that. 

To be honest, this whole thing has left me feeling emotionally exhausted. I can’t say that I thought of Necromommycon as a friend because as far as I’m aware, she doesn’t know any more about me than any rando who reads my blog, but I thought I had some idea of what kind of person she was. She seemed insightful, kind, and empathetic in her Tumblr posts. She made a very thoughtful offer when my spouse and I were having a hard time financially, and although I didn’t take her up on it, we both appreciated it very much. (Which may be why even my spouse was thrown for a loop on Sunday. There was a lot of, “Are you sure that message was really from her? Could someone have hacked her tumblr? But why would she do that?” Dude, I wish I could tell you.) Maybe that’s what got to me, the fact that she reached out and offered to help someone she didn’t even know, who wasn’t even asking for help, because anyone who knows me in real life would tell you that I generally am not a trusting person at all. 

I hate not having answers, but at this point, I need to accept that I’m not going to be able to make sense out of this. Thanks for your support, Anon.

[theteablogger]

More on Necromommycon

(I got tired of typing out the whole name, so it’s just Necro throughout this post.)

I mentioned before that I’ve been looking through her blogs on archive.org and trying to figure out what I missed. This anon has a lot of good points that I can see in hindsight, but didn’t catch at the time. I also see this:

Necro's first LJ post about the whole thing (at least, her first public one) said that she was most concerned for Andy, called Abbey a "joiner", and said she didn't believe Andy had actually been a cult leader. That was in Nov 2011, after Abbey had posted a 5-part explanation of how she ended up in the cult and what it was like. In retrospect, I realize that she never actually apologized for this (at least, not in public) or stated that she no longer felt this way. I don’t know why I thought she had.

Before Sunday, I believed that after reading about the horrific extent to which Andy body-shamed Abbey, Necro had re-examined what she knew about Andy in a different light, and her opinions had changed. Now I suspect that the only reason the body-shaming shook her was that it was the first part of the narrative that she could relate to from the abused person's perspective.

As far as I can tell, deliberately or not, she drew a dividing line from that point. On one side went things that she found personally upsetting, and on the other side went things that didn't bother her: that is, pretty much everything else Andy did. A few things seemed to shift to the "bothered" side as she looked back over their correspondence and realized that Andy had been manipulating her in ways of which she wasn't conscious at the time, but too many stayed firmly in "not bothered" territory.

As long as the discussion was focused on things that actually disturbed her, especially those related to misogyny, she felt and expressed a degree of empathy for Abbey and the other people Andy's hurt. She could also be very critical of Andy’s clumsier attempts at manipulation, like the ridiculous college stories and techniques that were literally right out of a pick-up artist's manual. When I look back, I see more disappointment than reprobation in many of those posts, as if she were frustrated because she knew he could do “better” than that. I also now realize that she never once mentioned either of his cults and (unless it was in a post that didn't get archived) she never addressed his history of rape and sexual abuse, even indirectly, before this summer. Had I realized that several years ago, I would have been much more disturbed by the fact that she found Andy amusing and wanted to be friends with him without personally holding him accountable and trying to help him reform. 

I might also have felt differently if I'd been paying closer attention in 2013 (before I started blogging) and had seen Necro's post on "Rules for Befriending Sociopaths". The full post isn't on archive.org, so all I can see are the first lines:

"Look, I like Andy as much as the next person, but he is strictly a For Entertainment Purposes Only form of enjoyment. I am able to enjoy him so much precisely because I don't need him for anything. It is not a good idea to let oneself need anything from sociopaths..."

Just...WHAT? Okay, I guess it’s the Bagenders’ and DAYDians’ fault that they didn’t immediately recognize Andy as someone with a personality disorder and keep him at arm’s length. They only got sucked into his cults and abused because they let it happen. They should have known better, yeah? It’s a good thing she’s so much smarter and less gullible than they were, and therefore immune.

For that matter, let me just go back in time thirty-odd years to when I started suffering severe emotional/psychological abuse from X (I’m told it was pretty much from birth, but toddlerhood is as far back as I can remember) and tell my past self that everything will be okay as long as I don’t let myself need anything from my close relative who has a personality disorder. Stupid children, needing things from their families. Just get over it, am I right?

Don’t let yourself need anything from sociopaths. It doesn’t get more victim-blaming than that.

EDIT: Of course the minute I posted that, I realized that 1purp0se would probably have the whole post. And they do. And Necro textually rolls her eyes at the very idea that she might be accused of victim-blaming. Nice.

[theteablogger]

I remember Necromommycon once saying on TF-talk that she found it easier to relate to the type of person Andy is more than the type of person Abbey is. I got chills from that when I read that the first time, now I look back and think "When someone tells you who they are, believe them."

I still have a harder time understanding people like Abbey than I do Andy, and that’s not a pleasant thing to admit.

That was from the comment in which she confessed to having fake-channeled as a kid. At the time, I thought the commenter (remember, we didn’t know who it was until this summer) was being too hard on themself, since they obviously carried so much guilt about what they’d done. I didn’t see identification with Andy as much as distress that they might have turned out like him and sadness that they could still understand that mindset so well.

Now when I read it, it looks more like she’s suggesting that the Bagenders and DAYDians were just too gullible for their own good, and I have to wonder whether all that talk about how bad she felt was just a performance.

EDIT, two days later: I am an idiot and Necromommycon didn’t make this comment. She made these other two comments (1 | 2) with fake-channeling confessions, which are different in tone from the one quoted above. They sound more like the way I initially read the quoted comment, although I guess the last line of her seance story implies that she also understands people like Andy better than people like Abbey.

My re-interpretation of the quoted comment was made in the belief that it was made by Necromommycon, who has since revealed (among other things) that she thinks Abbey has been lying/exaggerating about a lot of Andy’s abuse and that it’s ridiculous to call him a cult leader. I am not making any assumptions as to whether the actual commenter shares those opinions.

[theteablogger]

I will let this speak for itself

Subject: Apologies

Andrew Blake (email redacted):

I would like to extend an apology to Molly and anyone else who has felt wronged or harmed in any way by me during my time in LA, but have been unsure of how to do that in a way that would not violate Chris’ request to not contact any member of “his family”, which I took to mean her and the extended friend circle as well. You are the only person of whom I am aware who has contact with her who would not fall into that category in any way, and I do not want to default to making it a public apology as I do not want it to be seen as a PR effort but as a sincere personal gesture. Would you be willing to let her know that I would like to apologize to her and her friends and to ask her if she is willing to allow that and if so in what form she would like it (personal email, phone call, in person visit, public post, private post, text, etc)? Further, if you know of anyone else who feels they have been wronged by me who would like an apology, I am more than willing to be placed in contact. I am not a particularly savvy internet sleuth and have done the best I can to reach out over the last several years to those whom I have known have felt harmed who have not asked me to leave them alone, but my success rate of finding or contacting them has not been great. I would also like to apologize for any drama or harassment caused by Chris C[redacted] or anyone else acting “on my behalf.” Although I gave my friends permission to post their own page describing their personal experiences with me, I specifically and repeatedly have asked that they not argue with anyone else’s personal account of me or engage/harass/argue with with the Andy Awareness bloggers. Anyone who is doing so is doing so against what I have explicitly asked.

Tea Blogger (theteablogger@gmail.com):

I don't think it would be appropriate for me to reach out to anyone on your behalf, especially those who have asked that you not contact them again. If you want to apologize, I would recommend that you make a public post. The reasons that your previous apology posts have been perceived as insincere has nothing to do with their having been made publicly.

EDIT: Ugh, Tumblr. Here’s a full-size screenshot of that exchange.

[theteablogger]

Bullshit

Two things:

First of all, I’ve heard through the grapevine that Andy is sharing screenshots that allegedly prove that mine are fake. For what it’s worth, I have never in my life faked a screenshot of anything, let alone a screenshot of one of Andy’s posts. The most editing that I’ve done to them is to crop out extraneous material that might identify the person who sent them to me, to join screenshots together when it takes more than one to capture an entire post, to censor other people’s names and pictures or Andy’s own contact info, and occasionally to highlight something. That’s it.

Second, I’ve recently received screenshots of a Facebook post that shows what Andy is telling his friends about what’s recently happened in LA, and how Andy awareness bloggers and tf-talk are entirely to blame for it. I’m going to share it here and respond point-by-point. I realize that Andy is talking about more people than just me, but a) there are very few of us (outside tf-talk) posting about him now, and b) I can only speak for myself anyway. This is going to be long. Sorry.

(If you’d like a quick preview of Andy’s post, he’s been saying almost exactly the same things since at least 2012, so here you go.)

One major problem with this is that the “30 second cocktail party bio” is often all that people get. His former host was very clear that he hadn’t told her about leading two cults, sexually abusing people, mentally and emotionally abusing and manipulating people, and more. What little he did tell her, he blamed entirely on mental illness and made it sound like a lot of stupid internet drama.

When he refers to “listing [his] birth name and literally every screen name [he’s] had or people have suspected was [him] since 1995,” that’s obviously about me. The reason that list is featured so prominently on my blog is that Andy has used so many aliases and screen names over the years that reading about his past can be very confusing for people. Many times, even recently, I’ve seen others express surprise that Thanfiction and Victoria Bitter (for example) are the same person, although they were familiar with most of the trouble that he’d caused under both of those names. I would never, ever mention Andy’s birth name if not for the fact that his earliest known online manipulation and lies were under that name. 

Now, here’s the really big issue, for me: I have never said that Andy is a sociopathic narcissist abuser. I have never tried to label him with any specific diagnosis or even a DSM category.

Once in 2014 (before I even had a blog) I submitted a post to 1-purp0se that included something about emotional vs. cognitive empathy, positing that Andy had the latter, but not the former. I’ve regretted that part of the post ever since because I am not a mental health professional and that was only my opinion. In the years since then, I have made sure that I could substantiate everything with screenshots and I have not made anything approaching a diagnostic claim.

I have always been very clear that I have never met or personally interacted with Andy. It’s there for all to see in my FAQ. Also, I have never, ever so much as implied that Andy has abused me in any way. Anyone who thinks that I have either has not actually read my blog, or has a serious reading comprehension problem. I have never even suggested that X was anything like Andy, and have only shared those stories on my blog in hopes of being helpful to other survivors. I am disgusted by the implication that everything that I post is merely a projection of my own experiences of abuse...and at the same time, darkly amused that this is the best Andy can do to refute anything that I’ve said about him.

I have never rejected, harassed, or attacked anyone who’s contacted me about Andy. I have been attacked and harassed by people attempting to defend Andy, and I had a bit of a meltdown in 2015 when I was attempting to defend one of Andy’s friends in tf-talk.

When Andy posts social justice things, he does so in a way that shows that he has little more than a surface-level understanding of the issues, and that he’s more concerned with appearing to espouse a currently popular cause than with actually supporting it. For example, while “raising awareness” about Ferguson, he repeatedly made analogies equating black people with dogs and wild animals. He told people affected by the late-2014 wave of fake suicides in SPN fandom how they were “allowed” to feel and respond. In 2016 he made a number of posts that included misleading and false election statistics, and was very dismissive of people’s concerns about a Trump presidency. That’s the tip of the iceberg, and all that was just on Tumblr. Andy whitesplains and mansplains all the damned time.

There’s “making new friends”, and then there’s forcibly inserting yourself into a pre-existing social circle, acting like you know them all extremely well, and putting intense pressure on them to introduce you to other friends of theirs who are either connected to or actually part of the cast of the webseries on which you are currently fixated. The latter is what he did in LA, according to people who were actually there and were involved.

When Andy says good things about his friends, or other people, they are often backhanded compliments (e.g., his incredibly condescending liveblog of a friend’s SPN fic) or blatant negging (such as making extremely hurtful and gross comments about a woman’s body and following them up with over-the-top assurances that he thinks she’s beautiful). Does he do this every time he makes a positive comment about someone? I have no idea. But it happens often enough to be cause for concern.

"If people say I don’t hurt them, it’s proof that they’re brainwashed or afraid of me, etc. If friends stand up for me, that’s proof that I have created a cultish, us-against-them mentality.”

That first sentence is part of what set off my 2015 meltdown, so I’m not even touching it. I have never said anything even close to that. I have often talked about the fact that Andy has led two actual cults, and that he fosters “us-vs-them” thinking in his friends because he did and he does. Many, many former friends of Andy’s have spoken about the us-vs-them thing, and it’s evident in many of his posts over the years. 

I have never said that Andy needs to tell everyone that he is “a sociopath who was intending to inflict pain.” What makes his “apology” posts fauxpologies is that he continually finds reasons to excuse or minimize acts of abuse he has committed, to explain things away as “misunderstandings”, and to deflect blame in a variety of ways. He also tends to make significant omissions and to bend the truth as far as he can unless/until he’s called out on it.

“We know the secret.” This is hilarious because that’s exactly what Andy used to tell the Bagenders and the DAYDians: “[XYZ everyday occurrence] seems insignificant to everyone else, but because we know the secret, we understand that it’s a message from Kali and Raz,” or what have you. I think there have been a handful of times that I’ve said that something Andy’s done would have sounded innocuous coming from anyone else, but takes on more sinister overtones when his history is taken into account. These things generally have to do with specific lies Andy has told, or with specific, documented ways that he has manipulated people in the past.

This is very misleading. No one has moved the goalposts; there never were any goalposts in the first place. Nobody said, “Andy, if you do these specific things, then we’ll believe that you’ve changed and we’ll never talk about you again.” I have said, and have seen other say, that maybe if he did this or that thing it might indicate that he was serious about changing, or that something that he was doing at the time was a reason to hope that he was honestly trying to change. I and many others have also said numerous times that part of the process of moving on for Andy would have to be leaving fandom for good. Andy is the one who decided that putting on a show of leaving fandom (but still sharing fanart and trying to get other fans’ and creators’ attention via mentions and fannish tweets) was the one and only thing he needed to do in order to convince everyone that he’s a different person. 

And this next bit is the real crux of the issue: even if he really had “ticked all [the] boxes” on an imaginary list of criteria that Turimel, or tf-talk, or the Andy awareness blogs, or whoever had given him...it wouldn’t matter because he is still engaging in many problematic and abusive behaviors. He is “actively, presently committing abuse”, and I believe that he is still dangerous. I refer you again to Molly’s post about his recent stay with her. On the other hand, I have never made any claim that he is abusing Meg or the cats, or about “dozens of other current victims”. (Past victims that we don’t know about? Sure. Although I’m not very fond of the word “victim”.)

I won’t claim that I stand behind everything that’s said on tf-talk, or every post that every other blogger has made. But by all means, try to claim that there’s bias and twisting in my timeline, when it’s full of substantiating evidence in Andy’s own words and in the words of people who have been hurt by him.

I’m not sure where he’s getting “a dozen” from. There are maybe five of us blogging about him sporadically on Tumblr now (very sporadically, in most cases), and an unknown number of anons in tf-talk and fail-fandomanon. Our blogs and tf-talk often go quiet for long periods of time, and he isn’t mentioned that frequently on FFA anymore...until something like this happens.

I love the implication that no one who’s decided to stay away from Andy based on the many warning posts about him, the contents of tf-talk, Abbey’s blog, my blog, etc. has actually read any of it. They’ve all just made blind assumptions. But Andy’s not saying anything bad about them! Oh, no, they’re still smart, reasonable, good, empathetic, woke, and the kind of people that he wants to be friends with and work with. See what I mean about saying shitty things about people and then following up with lavish praise? This is also exactly what this anon on FFA was talking about. Anyway, based on my Statcounter and the fact that Google Docs will show me how many people are currently reading the timeline whenever I open it, I’m going to say that far more than .0002% of people actually read this stuff.

And here it is: it is ALL OUR FAULT that Andy hasn’t changed, even though he’s trying so hard. Comparing himself to a snake that’s had its venom sacs (not poison, Andy) removed is very disingenuous as it implies that it is now impossible for him to do significant harm. That isn’t true of anyone, let alone someone with a 20-year history of lies, manipulation, and abuse. And he actually did “bite” someone recently--again, read Molly’s post, and realize that all happened just a few days ago.

The truth does speak for itself. Those people in LA already had serious concerns about Andy before they read about him online, but they had been cutting him a lot of slack. Molly was already aware that Andy was, for example, trying to dredge up her memories of extremely abusive past relationships in order to manipulate her. She and his friends had already realized that he was constantly lying to all of them about pretty much everything. They’d already pegged him as a performative ally. They’d noticed that he negged the hell out of trans and plus-size people, specifically playing on issues of gender/body dysmorphia, and that he was competitive and condescending toward other men. All of this was based on their own direct observations of his behavior, before they had any idea about his history. And the person who filled them in wasn’t a blogger or someone from tf-talk; it was a close friend of theirs who realized who he was and felt the need to warn them.

(Also? Even if none of the LA people would say that Andy had actually harmed them--I don’t know because I haven’t talked to them all--it is evident that he at least tried to harm them psychologically and emotionally. None of the above behaviors can be waved away as accidents, especially given that they were happening regularly and frequently.)

So what is Andy to do? Maybe stop doing the things listed above, for a start. If what his friends read online (again, after spending time with him in person for a couple weeks) really hadn’t matched what they knew of him personally, the outcome would have been very different. But they’d already been comparing notes on his shitty behavior, and when they read the links they’d been sent, everything that had been happening suddenly made sense. That’s why they kicked him out. If you’re a manipulative asshole, people may be willing to let things slide for a while--but when they find out that you’ve been doing the same shit and worse for 20 years, yes, everything might just be snatched away from you. And that’s your own fucking fault.

Here’s a further comment from Andy:

This is fucking disgusting.

Other than the occasional tf-talk anon, the only person who has regularly (as in, more than an off-hand comment) compared specific words and behaviors of Andy’s to a past abuser of their own was Delwynmarch. And that was several years ago; it’s been a long time since he posted anything at all. Del had his fair share of insightful, on-point analytical posts, too--like his breakdown of Andy’s attempt to explain away his admission of having committed rape and sexual abuse. It’s incredibly disingenuous and dismissive to suggest that the volumes of information and analysis that others have written amount to nothing more than projection, and that we’re just a bunch of poor, ignorant babies who don’t realize how misguided we are. He feels sorry for us. Give me a fucking break.

I have been open about being a survivor of abuse and having lost people in my life to cults. While that is part of what inspired me to start blogging about Andy, that doesn’t mean that it is the entire basis for all of my opinions and analysis. Andy is fond of analogies, so I’ll use one here: This is like saying that because I was once bitten by a dog, any time that I feel the need to correct my own dog’s behavior, I’m obviously just projecting my past experience onto him, so I should just back off and let him keep shitting on the rug.

Furthermore, as much as he likes to say that we don’t know him and therefore shouldn’t act like we understand him...I know Andy a hell of a lot better than he knows me. I’ve been reading others’ words about him since 2003, and I have probably millions of his own words about his life, his mental health, fandom, and a host of other topics, dating back to 1998. All he knows of me is what little he sees on this blog. 

Nice try, Andy, but I neither need nor want your sympathy. Nor do I accept any measure of blame for what happened last week. You did it to yourself.

[theteablogger]

Did Necromommycon ever respond to the email where you confronted her about the dates of the Thanfictioning posts?

Nope! I don’t think she ever will. But I’ve given her more than enough of my time over the last few days, so I’m not going to brood over it.