#andrew you are so absurdly predictable!!!!

[dayurno]

It is deeply DEEPLY funny to me that when in need to come up with a character that would help Neil want to stay at Palmetto after everyone graduates, Nora just created Kevin 2. He truly lives rent free in all of our minds. She's just like us fr

BAHAHA i think there is definitely more to robin than just her kevin parallels but i am forced to admit that she has many of them and the role she plays in the monsters is not unlike the one kevin left vacant when he graduated….!!!! but it’s just sooooo @___@ to me that not only is robin so similar to kevin narrative-wise but she’s also a direct result of kevin’s influence in andrew…… andrew who wanted her to believe in herself and fight back the same way he wanted it for kevin…. andrew who trained robin every night like kevin did with neil…. andrew using exy as a means to give robin a second chance at life like kevin has been telling him for years….. DO YOU UNDERSTAND!!!!

i think even if robin doesnt get to be a fox while kevin is a fox it’s still so clear that kevin’s influence still lingers….!!! im not sure if he would have been close to her at all, and maybe she would have been scared of him and his criticism, but i think if they ever got a chance to be friends then they really would ok. i believe 🥹

[junker-town]

Predicting the MLB season with 7 big questions

Our writers give their predictions for the 2021 MLB season.

The 2020 MLB season was unlike any other with the coronavirus pandemic delaying the start of the season until late July. Everything is on track for a more normal season with a chance to even get fans into the stadium at limited capacity for the first time in more than a year.

The rich got richer this offseason with a loaded Dodgers team loading up even more for what could very well be another run at defending their World Series victory. Can the new-look New York Mets or Fernando Tatis Jr.-led Padres throw those plans off track? Will the Yankees finally make it back to the World Series, or will their own health (and lack thereof) prove to be their downfall?

Before the 2021 MLB regular season gets underway, we asked our staff to predict how this year will go. Picks are being made by Andrew Mearns of Pinstripe Alley, Brady Klopfer of McCovey Chronicles, Sara Sanchez of Bleed Cubbie Blue, Kris Willis of Talking Chop, and Ashley MacLennan of Bless You Boys and DRaysBay.

1. Give us one bold prediction for the season

Andrew: The Phillies & Angels both end their playoff droughts with Wild Card runs. The Padres quickly dispatch the Phils from the postseason in the Wild Card Game, but behind big homers from Anthony Rendon & Shohei Ohtani, the Angels upset the Rays before falling to the Yankees in a tight ALDS. But hey, at least Mike Trout finally has a postseason win?

Brady: Someone will hit the 60 home run barrier, and at least two other players will cross 50 homers. A home run race will develop in the final months of the season, and that will become the biggest storyline of the season.

Sara: Kyle Hendricks will win the NL Cy Young award. Projection systems really don’t appreciate the way he gets guys out with 88 mph pitches while masterfully working the corners and playing with speed. In a year where very few pitchers will top 170 innings, Hendricks’ efficiency means he may have more innings, and more complete games than any pitcher in baseball. He’s not going to turn any heads with his K/9, but if he quietly puts up a sub 3.00 ERA while leading the NL in innings in 2021 voters will have a difficult decision to make in the fall.

Kris: Between Fernando Tatis Jr and Juan Soto, it feels like everyone is forgetting about Ronald Acuña Jr. He will give the Braves their second straight MVP Award winner in 2021 and put up a 40-40 season in the process while reentering the conversation of who is the best young player in MLB.

Ashley: Home runs are going to drop considerably with the slightly deadened ball, and the new laces may see us get a pitcher reach 22 wins (yeah, I said it). There will be exceptions but I’m thinking 2021 will be the year of the pitcher.

2. NL Champions: Dodgers or the field?

Andrew: Dodgers. If they didn’t exist, we could debate Padres vs. Braves all season long, but the Dodgers are just too absurdly good. I’m not convinced that they ever actually lose. The league’s just throwing us off the scent when they print those faulty box scores.

Brady: The field. The Dodgers are deserving favorites, but the field is always the safe pick in baseball, especially when there are still a decent number of elite teams to challenge the defending champions.

Sara: The field. The Dodgers are going to get some stiff competition from the Padres and the Braves at bare minimum. I think one of those teams will knock the Dodgers out of the playoffs.

Kris: Dodgers. The rich just get richer with the addition of Trevor Bauer. There are teams in the National League that could beat the Dodgers but given their resources, it is hard to pick against them.

Ashley: Dodgers. I’d much rather say the Padres will win the NL this year because they’re a much easier team to root for, but the Dodgers have absolutely done everything right this offseason to stay competitive and I don’t see them slowing down. That said, I’m hoping to see the Padres in the WS.

3. Who will win the MVP from each league?

Andrew: AL: Mike Trout; NL: Juan Soto.

The combination of an improbable Angels playoff run and Trout being, well, Trout, gives him his fourth MVP. As for Soto, the Nationals don’t even necessarily have to do much around him. His time is just now to be the modern-day Ted Williams.

Brady: AL: Mike Trout; NL: Juan Soto

Are these the obvious picks? Yes. But baseball is straightforward enough that I can’t break out of the box here. Mike Trout is the best player alive, has been the best player alive for a very long time, and no longer is battling Mookie Betts for this award. Soto is coming off a 201 wRC+ season, and is at an age where you expect him to not only get better, but significantly so. These are the heavy favorites in my eyes.

Sara: AL: Mike Trout, NL: Juan Soto

I thought about being contrarian here, but I just can’t. Soto is poised to put up a season for the record books and Mike Trout is Mike Trout. Depending on the prediction system both should put up OPS over 1.000. It is possible someone else gets hot in either league and runs them down, because baseball will always baseball, but I can’t bring myself to put anyone else’s name down here.

Kris: AL: Mike Trout; NL: Ronald Acuña Jr.

It seems like this is the same answer every year, but if he stays healthy, Mike Trout has to be the favorite for MVP in the American League. Especially if the Angels are an improved team and in the running for a playoff spot. Ronald Acuña Jr goes 40-40 and leads the Braves back to the NLCS and captures his first career MVP award.

Ashley: AL: Mike Trout; NL: Fernando Tatis Jr.

Trout has openly spoken this offseason about moves he has made to “improve” the things that have been slowing him down, and I for one am eager to see what those moves will change in terms of his performance. Is it possible to get better? We’ll see! I could have gone for any of the big three youth-movement guys in terms of the NL because Soto and Acuña Jr are incredible and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of them take it, but my gut says Tatis Jr is just going to keep building off last year’s success and be an absolutely monster in the NL in 2021.

4. Which team will be the biggest surprise?

Andrew: Angels. For all the reasons above because I am a gigantic sucker and this time, Lucy absolutely won’t pull that football away.

Brady: Angels. This is the year it finally happens, and Mike Trout wins a playoff game. Trout, Anthony Rendon, and a healthy Shohei Ohtani is just too much talent, and I think the Astros are primed for regression. I say the Angels win the AL West and, at a very minimum, at least win a playoff game.

Sara: Blue Jays. They may not have a home park to play in but they made a lot of interesting moves in the offseason. Losing Yates for a while doesn’t hurt them as much as one might think and they have some really interesting bats. I think they are trying to chase down the Yankees in the East all year, and if the Yankees can’t stay healthy the Blue Jays may just win the division.

Kris: Rays. It is always the Rays is not in? No matter how unimpressive they look on paper, they find a way to win, and I do not think this season will be any different despite the departure of Blake Snell.

Ashley: White Sox. It’s hard to say they’ll be a surprise only because most predictions suggest they’ll be among the best in the very bad AL Central, but all the same I’m really interested to see what they pull off. Tony La Russa is going to be something the team has to overcome, rather than something that will help them win, I think, but they have such a strong core of talented players, I really want to see what they can pull off.

5. Which team will be the biggest disappointment?

Andrew: Blue Jays. The Mets would also be a decent choice since I have them missing the playoffs, but not by much. The Jays, however, could really crash and burn with that pitching staff (no matter how much that young offense terrifies me).

Brady: Astros. A run to the ALCS hid what was a pretty bad season for Houston last year. Not only did they finish the truncated season with a losing record, but their win differential suggested they were a highly mediocre team. I think we see that in full this year.

Sara: Yankees. For the past three years I feel like all I’ve heard is how great the Yankees will be, but it hasn’t gotten them another ring. Unfortunately for New York anything less than another ring is a disappointment for that fanbase. I know the projections love the pitching staff, but ace Gerrit Cole is one of the pitchers most likely to be impacted by MLB’s stated intention to crack down on substances because of spin rate discrepancies, Corey Kluber is a huge injury risk, Jameson Taillon is a good addition - who has thrown 37.1 innings in the last two seasons. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are both injury prone, and Gary Sánchez has shown no sign of turning it around at the plate. This is the same team that hasn’t delivered in the last 4 years, they are just a year older.

Kris: Blue Jays. Toronto looks like a fun team on paper, but I am worried about their starting pitching and whether they have enough depth to hold up over a full 162 games. They should score plenty of runs but in the end, I am afraid their rotation will cost them.

Ashley: Blue Jays. They made all the right moves in the offseason to push themselves as a competitive team, but a bunch of spring training injuries and some pickups that are as likely to implode as they are to succeed (Robbie Ray?) means the Jays could be a team that spent to lose instead of spending to compete. A lot of focus is going to be on the young talent like Guerrero and Bichette to see if they can shine as future superstars.

6. Which player will lead the majors in home runs?

Andrew: Pete Alonso. The dude knows how to go deep, and even in an “off year” when no one talked about him, he was still within shouting distance of the home run crown. Give him a real season again and he’ll go bananas.

Brady: Aaron Judge. Sure, it’s been four years since he hit the 52 homer mark, but he’s still got that power in him, and he can’t be pitched around on this Yankees team. If he stays healthy, I think it all clicks.

Sara: Mike Trout. I thought about getting cute about this and saying Eugenio Suárez because I love that bat and he plays in a bandbox, but I think it’s Trout. And even though you didn’t ask this, I think that number is less than 45...at least it is if MLB is actually deadening the ball like they claim.

Kris: Ronald Acuña Jr. I already picked Acuña to win MVP and the home run crown will be a big part of that. He makes a run at a 50 homer season and leads the majors in 2021.

Ashley: Mike Trout. I really, really want to see him kill it this year. In think home runs overall will be down, but I genuinely believe Trout will hit about a tenth of them.

7. What is your World Series matchup prediction?

Andrew: Dodgers/Yankees. The chalk pick, but the correct pick. The door is wide open in the AL for the Yankees to return to the World Series, and if not now, then when? But also, no one’s beating the Dodgers unless something goes seriously wrong.

Brady: Padres/Yankees. I have the Pads finally eclipsing their big brother Dodgers in a stacked NL, while the Yankees run circles around the competition in the AL. And it all makes for a star-studded World Series, that San Diego wins in seven.

Sara: Padres/White Sox. I refuse to pick the Yankees/Dodgers matchup that math, the universe and logic so desperately want us all to pick. Don’t get me wrong, I’d watch that World Series, but I wouldn’t get excited about it. Let’s watch the kids thrive and play. The Padres are a brilliantly constructed team and they are built to beat the Dodgers. They came close in the shortened season - then they went out and added Blake Snell and Yu Darvish to the Dodgers’ Trevor Bauer and David Price. The Yankees should be a juggernaut, but they are fragile. Someone in the AL will step in and beat them, it might as well be the team that employs Luis Robert and Lucas Giolito.

Kris: Dodgers/Yankees. I think the Dodgers are the clear favorites in the National League given roster depth and they will be looking to prove that last season’s championship was not a fluke. It seems like there are a lot of things that could go wrong with the Yankees’ pitching staff, but I do not see anyone else in the American League that can match their fire power.

Ashley: Padres/Rays. I cannot imagine a more fun final showdown than this, especially with former Rays Tommy Pham and Blake Snell in the mix for the Padres. These two teams have taken very different approaches to spending and signings this offseason and I think it would be an electric matchup (for everything except maybe TV ratings).

[yahoo-roto-arcade-blog]

Juggernaut Index, No. 26: Colts fans, fantasy owners still waiting on Andrew Luck

Hey, look who’s finally doing things with footballs. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

The Indianapolis Colts will go as far this season as quarterback Andrew Luck can carry them, and it’s not yet clear that he’s capable of carrying them anywhere at all. Two weeks ago, Luck made a couple dozen short throws with footballs that weren’t quite official NFL-size and, understandably, the Colts community was pretty pumped…

IT’S HAPPENING OMG OMG pic.twitter.com/VyCR6llLRW

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) June 12, 2018

Woo. Plan the parade route, Indy.

[Yahoo Fantasy Football leagues are open: Sign up now for free!]

As everyone knows, Luck missed the entire 2017 season following January labrum surgery. Colts news coverage over the past year-and-a-half has been a carnival ride of bogus pronouncements, wishcasting, skepticism, setbacks and wild speculation. It is, without question, a very good sign that Luck is throwing again. A great sign. Excellent news. The expectation is for Luck to develop something close to a regular season throwing routine that he can carry into camp:

“Big picture, my goal was to be able to throw as much as I need to, like on a game week,” Luck said. “A Wednesday, Thursday, Friday at practice and then Sunday, let it loose, no count, nothing. You’ve got to go and let it go. So that’s what I’m preparing for, that’s why right now I throw Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays and Fridays to mimic a three-day sort of practice week and then a Friday as a Sunday as a game week.”

Sounds like a solid plan. It also sounds as if Luck is beginning to feel legitimately closer to the pre-surgery version of himself. When asked if he expects to play the opener this season, he told reporters, “I’ll be playing. I believe it in my bones.”

Fantasy owners obviously can’t treat him as a sure thing, especially at a time when the quarterback position is as deep as it’s ever been. Luck’s FF Calculator average draft position seems aggressive (104.1, QB12) considering the quality and reliability of the players selected in his range. Drafting him at any price means that you will almost certainly need to roster a second playable QB. That’s not the greatest use of limited bench spots. But let’s also remember that Luck, at his absolute best, was a 4700-yard, 40-TD passer. He threw for 4240 yards and 31 scores in a year in which he played with the labrum tear. There’s little question that a healthy Luck would rank as a top-six fantasy quarterback.

If you’re still trying to talk yourself into Luck, please note that new head coach Frank Reich is fresh off a Super Bowl win as OC for the Eagles. Reich was essential in Carson Wentz’s development, plus he’s the guy who prepped Nick Foles to star in the postseason. These are good bullet points for a coaching resume.

Head coach Frank Reich was the most important offseason addition in Indy. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

We don’t have to make any final decisions on Luck’s draft value today, so let’s please keep an open mind. The recent news has been encouraging. At the very least, we shouldn’t run away from him quite the way we did last summer. His line should improve following the draft day addition of mauling guard Quenton Nelson.

The Colts’ offense was a start-to-finish mess without Luck last season, ranking dead-last in yards per play and 30th in passing. If he can’t get back to full health, none of this team’s skill players are particularly interesting for fantasy purposes.

Indy’s receiving corps is T.Y. Hilton and, um … some other dudes

T.Y. Hilton led the NFL in receiving yardage two seasons ago with Luck at the controls of the offense, catching 91 balls for 1448 yards. Last year, with Jacoby Brissett running the show (and rarely looking downfield), Hilton slipped to just 966 yards on 57 receptions. He was painfully boom-or-bust, delivering three games with 150 or more yards and a whopping eight games with 30 or fewer. Hilton is a dynamic player in his prime, 28 years old, and his chemistry with Luck is well established. He’s also a member of the best-shape-of-his-life club, which can’t hurt. If Luck gets right, Hilton will as well. His recent ADP reflects the fantasy community’s optimistic outlook on his quarterback (33.4, WR14). Hilton has never seen more than 16 red-zone targets in any season, so don’t expect a double-digit TD total.

Not surprisingly, T.Y. Hilton’s numbers took a huge nosedive without Luck. (Jeff Haynes/AP Images for Panini)

The battle for second and third-receiver duties is wide open behind Hilton — which is to say, there are no particularly intriguing candidates. Indianapolis signed the competent-if-not-spectacular Ryan Grant to a one-year deal back in March. Grant established new career highs in receptions (45), yards (573) and TDs (4) for Washington last season, but never topped 85 yards in any game. Front office fave Chester Rogers is entering his third pro season with a relatively unobstructed path to snaps and targets. Health has been an issue for him, but he’s flashed field-flipping ability a time or two — notably in a 104-yard performance against Pittsburgh last year. Rogers could be a decent what-if flier in the final rounds of deep drafts, depending on Luck’s status.

Fifth-round rookie Daurice Fountain (Northern Iowa) and sixth-rounder Deon Cain (Clemson) are in the mix as well. Both receivers have size enough to function as red-zone threats. Fountain had a superhuman pro day, posting a 42.5-inch vertical and 11-foot-2 broad jump. Cain has generated low-level buzz during the offseason, though he never actually delivered a huge season at the collegiate level. He has good speed for his size (4.43, 210), but ordinary leaping ability (33.5-inch vert). If you’d like to take a shot with one of these guys in dynasty, I’d lean Fountain. But, again, Cain is the guy who seemed to impress onlookers during OTAs.

Absurdly, tight end Jack Doyle led the Colts in receptions last year (and finished second overall at his position), hauling in 80 passes for 690 yards and four touchdowns. He was a short-range catch-and-fall receiver, ranking behind nearly all tight ends in average target distance (5.3) and yards per reception (8.6) according to Player Profiler. We can expect Indy’s offense to be far less predictable/numbing under Reich and new OC Nick Sirianni, so Doyle’s numbers should take a hit.

This team added Eric Ebron via free agency, and wow are the coaches excited about him…

“[Ebron] is really smart,” Reich said. “I knew that because we did our homework before he got here. We knew he was a smart player. But he’s like really a highly intelligent football player. And that’s really good because you want to use a guy with the versatility that he has and move him around and call all kinds of things with him. That helps. And he’s an explosive athlete.”

Detroit fans probably would have been willing to help Ebron pack his bags this spring, having seen enough drops and disappearances during his four seasons with the Lions. But it’s not unusual to see a tight end make a production leap on his second contract, so we need to keep Ebron’s name on the cheat sheet. He’s reportedly lining up everywhere in Indy’s offense. I’d prefer him to Doyle, which isn’t saying much.

Frank Gore is gone, replaced by a committee

Reich’s committee backfield in Philly was a massive success, so it should come as no surprise that he’s preparing to go RBBC with the Colts. It’s happening. No back on this team’s depth chart is obviously deserving of a featured role, so there should be little controversy regarding this potential three or four-man rotation. Marlon Mack gets a share, Robert Turbin gets a share and Ole Miss rookie Jordan Wilkins gets a share. Mack will be drafted ahead of the others (ADP 70.6, RB32), but strictly as a flex. Wilkins looks the part of an NFL back and he produced a solid year in the SEC, but he wasn’t much of a yards-after-contact runner. Pass protection is a concern as well.

Rookie running back Nyheim Hines could get interesting for PPR purposes. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

The most interesting chess piece in this backfield might just be rookie Nyheim Hines, a fourth-round pick from NC State. He’s already lined up everywhere for the Colts, and it’s only June. Hines is a gifted returner, too. He’s a fun-size back (5-foot-8) who won’t make a living between the tackles, but he offers excellent speed (4.38) and receiving ability. Hines caught 89 passes over three collegiate seasons, and he ran for 1113 yards and 12 scores on 193 carries last year (5.6 YPC). He’s a name to know in PPR formats.

Of course none of these guys will be terribly exciting unless Luck is the NFL’s comeback player of the year. He’s the franchise cornerstone, the key to everything else. Let’s hope Luck can return to form, because his ceiling in a healthy season is the No. 1 player at our game’s highest scoring position.

2017 Offensive Stats & Ranks

Points per game – 16.4 (30th in NFL) Pass YPG – 180.8 (30) Rush YPG – 103.8 (22) Yards per play – 4.6 (32) Plays per game – 62.1 (23)

Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) Buffalo, 31) Miami, 30) NY Jets, 29) Baltimore, 28) Oakland, 27) Cleveland, 26) Indianapolis

Follow the Yahoo fantasy football crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, Brad Evans, Liz Loza, Scott Pianowski and Tank Williams

[yahoo-roto-arcade-blog]

Stats to guide you to QB bargains and busts in your Fantasy Football draft

Kirk Cousins could prove to be a bargain in fantasy drafts this season. (AP Photo/Nick Wass, File)

Yards per passing attempt is the foundation for quarterback performance. It’s the reason why since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger teams that win YPA by any margin have won about three quarters of games.

But YPA doesn’t just predict wins and losses. It also predicts the quarterback stat that we care most about in fantasy with our signal-callers: passing touchdowns. The TD% of attempts for quarterbacks closely tracks YPA. Last year, 17 of 30 qualifying QBs (224 attempts) had a variance in these two stats, adjusted for league average where 100 is exactly average, of just seven points.

The bottom line: YPA is the dog and TD% is the tail. If a QB has a much stronger TD% (and thus number of TD passes) than his YPA, he hasn’t really earned them and last year’s total has less predictive weight. And if he’s sporting a much stronger YPA than TD%, he was probably just very unlucky in converting touchdowns last year and thus is a good bet to do much better now. Why isn’t the higher TD% the number to bet on instead of the YPA? Because you always bet the bigger sample.

Last year, we applied YPA to quarterbacks and concluded that Cam Newton, Blake Bortles, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Derek Carr would throw far less TDs on a percentage basis. We were right on all but Carr, who was down but still close enough to the prior year to count as a miss. So three of the four predicted busts were correct. (Note we clearly said to ignore the model on Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning.)

The top buy in last year’s column was Matt Ryan, who we said was THE late-round QB to get last year given he was available often in the last round of 12-team leagues. We also said the two other values were Ben Roethlisberger (TD rate spiked dramatically as predicted, 4.5% to 5.7%) and Jameis Winston (4.1% to 4.8%). While both of them were hits, they almost seem like misses compared with that top-line call to buy Ryan at 2016 ADP. He finished with an NFL best 7.1% TD rate and 9.26 YPA among QBs with the minimum amount of attempts.

No one was really drafting Fitzpatrick with a serious pick so let’s just cross him out. And Roethlisberger was not an ADP bargain either. So relative to ADP, four hits and one miss. That’s pretty good. Let’s see if we can repeat it with this year’s outliers.

The major buy on the board is Washington QB Kirk Cousins. He earned about a 5.8% TD% last year, meaning he should have tossed 35 touchdowns. Few are treating him as a QB of that caliber this draft season (current ADP of 100). So, always gamble when it’s free. Cousins is a top-tier QB at a second-tier price even with the loss of DeSean Jackson. Note that red-zone efficiency has no correlation that I can find year to year and Cousins, who was among the worst last year, was among the best in 2015.

Similarly, Russell Wilson should be expected to have a much better TD rate but that’s being priced into his ADP of 59.8. Similarly, the market is hip to Andy Dalton achieving much greater TD value this year and that’s justified given his 21-point spread between his good YPA and poor TD%.

Dak Prescott is such a public player that there are no bargains with him but his TD rate also should have been between 5% and 6% so let’s call it 26 expected touchdowns. But note that the Cowboys are probably going to have to throw much more with a tougher schedule this year. This is more of a “Buy Dez Bryant” stat though, given his expected market share of Prescott TDs.

The major takeaway: Make Cousins your QB this year. It’s not going to cost you much to see if this model is right.

The sells are similar to last year. But we ignore the variance (higher TD% than YPA) of Rodgers because his offense is absurdly pass-TD friendly. Note he had nine TDs on first or second down inside the opponent’s 3-yard-line last year, easily leading the league. (Next were Matthew Stafford at 7, Drew Brees 6 and Andrew Luck with 5.) Plus Rodgers has been historically a great YPA QB. So fading him for this reason is silly.

And Carr is not going to burn me again. His YPA is slowly moving in the right direction and should be at least average this year at this rate of improvement; he has beaten the model two years in a row regardless.

The one sell again is Bortles, who I understand somehow scored about as well as Winston last year. But he is just a terrible player. You can’t tolerate a YPA+ of 77 where 100 is average. Even though his TD% was below average it should have been horrific — as it would have been had he not gotten all those garbage time TDs when defenses barely cared. That’s likely coming. Bortles should have thrown 16 TD passes instead of 23 last year in 625 attempts (or about the actual rate of the similarly efficiency deprived Carson Wentz). So avoid Bortles — and more importantly Jaguar receivers; paying ADP for Allen Robinson in light of this data is simply absurd.

[junker-town]

NBA free agency predictions: Where will all the big names end up?

Plus, some whimsical predictions on the other names on the market.

NBA free agency strikes at midnight on July 1 and there are a number of big names who will draw most of the attention: players like Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Gordon Hayward, and Paul Millsap. We also have at least one star player -- Paul George -- who will be the subject of intense trade rumors as we roll through July.

Equally as interesting as the machinations of the stars is what happens at the next level. It’s in that spirit that we offer these free agency predictions. It includes landing spots for the big names and the lesser-regarded players, in addition to some subplots we see cropping up as the offseason goes forward.

None of this is based on inside information. It’s based on history and publicly available reports from those with inside information. It is also based in large part on whims and fantasy. Enjoy!

THE BIG FISH

Both Steph Curry and Kevin Durant will stay with the Warriors

Curry will sign the five-year supermax. After leaving money on the table on his first post-rookie deal — the one on which he won two MVPs and two titles — he’s cashing in. This will be a five-year, $199 million contract.

Durant, meanwhile, isn’t eligible for as big a contract as Curry because the Warriors will be over the salary cap and don’t have KD’s Bird rights. The Warriors can still go over the cap to sign Durant using the non-Bird exception, but that limits his 2017-18 salary to 120 percent of his 2016-17 salary. Signing with the Warriors as a free agent last summer and sacrificing his Bird rights will cost Durant a few million off the max next season.

The Warriors pick up Durant’s Bird rights once he’s been there three years. As such, he’ll be a free agent again in 2019 when he can get back onto the maximum salary track. The contract to expect here: a three-year, $99.7 million contract with a player option on that third season.

This will be framed as Durant taking less money to help the team. This is a lie. This is the maximum Durant can receive from the Warriors while ensuring he is back on the max track ASAP. It’s true that Durant will make less than he would have had he stayed in Oklahoma City. But he’s not leaving money on the table on the Warriors’ behalf at this point.

The wrinkle here is that the Warriors could waive their rights on a couple of big free agents like Andre Iguodala to open up cap space to sign Durant to a higher dollar level.

Blake Griffin

DeAndre Jordan will lock Griffin in a living room and force him to re-sign with the Clippers at five years, $176 million.

Gordon Hayward

Hayward has spent his entire life in Indiana and Utah. These are lovely places, to be sure! But everyone needs a little beach time. Hayward will sign with the Heat for four years, $130 million with an early termination option for the fourth year.

THE DIFFICULT CASES

Kyle Lowry

The Raptors invested in DeMar DeRozan in a big way last summer. DeRozan had a fine year, but Toronto disappointed. I think Kyle Lowry’s summer is going to get very interesting ... but that he’ll stay with the Raptors for something around four years and $140 million.

Paul Millsap

This is the toughest case to suss out, because the market is really wide open for Millsap. No one is totally sure what the Suns are doing, but they land meetings with top free agents every summer and are bound to come away with one. Millsap to Phoenix for $120 million, he said without any confidence.

THE EARLY BIRDS

Last year it was Bradley Beal and Timofey Mozgov. Who will sign an absurdly early deal this time around? Here are our guesses.

Otto Porter

The first deal announced after the stroke of midnight: the Wizards will give Porter the max for four years, and he’ll take it: four years, $110 million.

J.J. Redick

Redick to the Nets for $100 million over four years. It is known.

Nerlens Noel

Noel signs a max deal with the Mavericks before Chandler Parsons even wakes up on Saturday.

THE NON-SHOCKER SHOCKER

It has become increasingly clear that Andre Iguodala is not long for the Warriors simply because of his age and disinterest in playing for peanuts. Golden State mints money, but the Warriors’ braintrust is still interested in turning that revenue into profit. They can only do that by limiting expenses. Iguodala is a casualty of that. On the surface, Minnesota doesn’t need another wing defender after stealing Jimmy Butler from the Bulls. But veteran help and a guide for Andrew Wiggins could still be in order.

THE SHOCKING TRADE

This is the summer Stan Van Gundy abandons the Andre Drummond project. A year ago, Van Gundy had to ink the young center to a fat contract to avoid losing the team’s best asset for nothing. But a disappointing season is going to have Van Gundy remixing the roster in a big way ... provided that Van Gundy doesn’t find himself out in Detroit.

Where will Drummond land? What a question! Let’s go with the Lakers over the Suns.

THE CRAZY OVERPAY

Danilo Gallinari to the Kings for $110 million over four years. Fans will talk themselves into it — what’s cap space if you don’t use it?

THE PAUL GEORGE RESOLUTION

Danny Ainge doesn’t feel pressure from anyone. He’s not going to get bullied into overpaying for a P.G. rental, even if he gets stung by Hayward. The new Lakers braintrust, however, has a mandate to land stars now. Even if they do swing a major trade for a long-term piece, getting P.G. is a priority.

THE SUBPLOTS

Will Russell Westbrook extend his contract with Oklahoma City again? No. He’ll be a free agent in 2018. And this will put Westbrook on the trade market since the Thunder won’t want to lose another MVP for nada.

Will James Harden extend his contract with Houston again? Yes. Doesn’t it feel like Harden will at some point end up the player with the highest career earnings?

THE SHOCKINGLY TOUGH MARKET

JaMychal Green

JaMychal Green does not have a powerful agent in his corner. (No offense to his representation, but high-end experience and levers of power do tend to matter.) Green isn’t a box score champion. He has gifts to bestow, but it takes great care to highlight those and build a market. Perhaps Team JaMychal will effectively do that. Perhaps the NBA’s front offices will all think they can pry Green from Memphis with early fat offers.

Instead, I think Green will be the annual restricted free agent who sits in limbo as the incumbent team with matching rights waits for the market to be set while other teams refuse to let their cap space be tied up so early in free agency given that it’s likely the incumbent team will match. The ol’ Josh Childress.

Eventually, Green will stay in Memphis.

Mason Plumlee

Remember when the Nuggets traded a first and Jusuf Nurkic for the right to pay Plumlee? Good times. He feels like an Indiana Pacer eventually.

WAITERS ISLAND IS RESILIENT IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

A sizeable three-year deal to remain in Miami for Dion. Let’s say $60 million. This is a playoff team.

MORE ASSORTED THOUGHTS

Serge Ibaka

Serge Ibaka’s an interesting free agent case. Toronto didn’t give up much to land him, but with Lowry likely to be quite expensive, it’s going to be hard to justify spending big on Ibaka in free agency. Denver could really use a defender next to Nikola Jokic and has been swinging hard for high-end free agents in recent years. This could be their catch.

Rudy Gay to the Clippers

I’m not convinced OKC will ink aging players until Sam Presti gets Westbrook’s answer on an extension. If the answer is no — as I suspect it will be — there’s no reason to sign Gay. But if the Clippers keep Griffin, they could find some space to carve out for a scoring wing. Don’t underestimate the Kings’ appetite to take on Jamal Crawford’s contract for a high-character veteran presence. (Regardless of Gay’s landing spot, Crawford seems a prime trade option: the Sixers are another potential option.)

Jeff Teague to the Magic

He’s so not the new Orlando front office’s type, but they need a real lead guard and he’s a fairly young one-time All-Star without Jrue Holiday’s injury history.

Jrue Holiday stays with New Orleans

Run it back! Run it back!

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope stays with Detroit

We saw Van Gundy ink up Drummond a year ago. He should probably do the same with KCP, even if he eventually want to burn it all down.

Jonathon Simmons to the Hawks

With CP3 off the table, I don’t think the Spurs have a huge move in them this summer. But they’ll keep their powder dry going forward.

Jeff Green

Some team will take a chance on Jeff Green. (It will not go well.)

Tim Hardaway Jr. to the Pacers

There is danger in these waters!

George Hill to the Bucks

This isn’t even really possible with the salary cap, but both George Hill and Milwaukee have a type.

Joe Ingles to the Kings

I’m pretty sure Joe Ingles was a late-1980s Sacramento King.

THE CAVALIERS’ RESPONSE

The Warriors are going to decide they can’t afford another Shaun Livingston contract, and Cleveland will scoop him up with whatever exception they can convince him to take. He, LeBron, and Kevin Love will be responsible for a Post-Up Renaissance that will take over the league.