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pint4punt · 1 year ago

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On a Scale of Russell Wilson to Tom Brady:

How successful will Aaron Rodgers run with the Jets be?

The Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers reunion did end up happening after all……just not in Denver (sorry Broncos Country, enjoy the ride with Russ). Instead he emerged from the darkness to join the New York Jets and give them legitimate Super Bowl aspirations for the first time in over a decade. That being said, we've seen very different versions of this movie before. The academy award winning epics that were Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford's first year with the Bucs and Rams respectively and Russell Wilson’s bootleg porno version of those movies you illegally downloaded by accident. You thought you were getting to watch Harry Potter work magic with his wand and instead……well you got a very different version of that same premise.

The point is, the NFL is more complicated than take Player A insert into Team B and experience immediate success. What Brady and Stafford accomplished were both truly remarkable and what happened with Wilson, well fuck if any of us know. So how does Rodgers’ opportunity compare to the last few vets to jettison their home for a promising team on the rise? Today we’ll look across the board and see which team was most appealing for their eventual signal caller in a variety of areas such as roster, resources, division, coaching staff and more. We will be skipping one honorable mention in Matt Ryan who had a similar opportunity with the Colts because well….. nothing about the Colts’ 2022 season is worth revisiting. Let’s start with:

The Squads

The Bucs:

-Mike Evans (3 Pro Bowls & 2016 Second-Team All-Pro*)

-Chris Godwin (1 Pro Bowl & 2019 Second-Team All-Pro*)

-Shaq Barrett (Super Bowl 50 Champion, 2019 Second-Team All Pro*)

*before Tom Brady joined the team

The Bucs team that eventually landed the GOAT boasted incredible pass catchers that far exceeded anything Brady had at his deploy in recent years. They also had a defense that could close games and had gone nearly .500 with a Quarterback who had thrown 30 interceptions the year before.

The run game left a lot to be desired and there wasn’t that reliable safety blanket for 3rd and long situations, but Brady’s legacy attracted the likes of Leonard Fournette (2,631 yards & 17 TDs in his first 3 seasons) and Antonio Brown (7 Pro Bowls & 4 All-Pros) while even luring Rob Gronkowski (5 Pro-Bowls & 4 All-Pros) out of a retirement we all felt was premature.

The Rams:

-Cooper Kupp (288 receptions for 3,570 yards*)

-Robert Woods (Two 1,000+ yard seasons)

-Aaron Donald (7 Pro Bowls, 6 All-Pros, 3-time DPOY*)

-Jalen Ramsey (4 Pro Bowls & 2 All-Pros*)

-Andrew Whitworth (4 Pro Bowls & 2 All-Pros)

*before Matthew Stafford joined the team

The Rams team that acquired Matthew Stafford was mostly successful under Jared Goff. But Sean McVay was certain they needed one more piece to get over the top. And what better match for a team that had continually underachieved than a guy who had continually underachieved!

Well despite our cynicism, this ended up being the right move too. Not only did Stafford join a team fraught with elite players, his play and the Rams’ aggressiveness attracted more. By the end of the year the Rams had cast household names such as Von Miller (Super Bowl 50 Champion w/ 8 Pro Bowls & 3 All-Pros) and Odell Beckham Jr. (3-time Pro Bowler w/ Five 1,000+ yard seasons) to win a Lombardi at home in Los Angeles (and likely an eventual Oscar for the film rights).

The Broncos:

-Courtland Sutton (2019 Pro Bowler)

-Jerry Jeudy (157 Receptions for 2,295 Yards in first 3 seasons)

-Tim Patrick (11 TDs from 2020 to 2021)

-Javonte Williams (903 yards in Rookie Season)

-Patrick Surtain (2021 PFWA All-Rookie Team*)

-Bradley Chubb (2020 Pro Bowler & 2018 PFWA All-Rookie Team*)

*before Russell Wilson joined the team

At face value, the Broncos’ Team that Russell Wilson joined was talented, but totally unproven. A lot of their hype was based on potential and what players might become in a competent Offense.

Having whored around with 11 starting Quarterbacks since Peyton Manning gave them a night they will never forget, the Broncos were desperate for any form of stability they could find. Rumors were abound that Rodgers was actually their first choice, but another Super Bowl winning Quarterback with 9 Pro Bowls seemed like a hell of a consolation prize. We don’t need to tell you it was not. Denver fans are hoping and praying that Hackett was the real problem and injuries to key contributors in Williams and Patrick certainly didn’t help, but it’s pretty hard to unsee the disaster that was Dangeruss’ 2022 season.

The Jets:

-Garrett ‘Offensive Rookie of the Year’ Wilson

-Sauce ‘Defensive Rookie of the Year’ Gardner

-Quinnen Williams (2022 First Team All-Pro)

-Breece Hall (Perennial Ass Kicker before ACL Tear)

-Allen Lazard & Randall Cobb (Rodgers’ Boys)

The New York Jets were the darling of Draft Analysts last offseason. And while a lot of those idiots give blistering hot takes that age like milk every year, they were right to exude praise on this Jets’ class. Sauce Gardner allowed the lowest passer rating and completions from opposing QBs while holding the highest PFF Coverage Grade AS A ROOKIE.

On the other side of the ball, Breece Hall looked like a budding super star before an unfortunate ACL tear ended his season prematurely, while Garrett Wilson put up over 1,100 yards in his first year despite Quarterback play that was so god damn awful they should add a provision in the Geneva Convention to prevent any fanbase from suffering such atrocity ever again. But moving away from Zach Wilson isn’t the only benefit of acquiring Rodgers. Like their counterparts in LA and Tampa Bay, New York is already reaping the benefits of the proven veteran’s presence, as it enabled them to win the Dalvin Cook sweepstakes, adding a four-time Pro Bowl Running Back to their suddenly robust Offense.

Winner: Bucs

It’s tough not to go Rams here based on what Cooper Kupp ended up achieving with Stafford, but based on the situation each QB walked into, Tampa Bay was the most established at the time. After all, two Pro Bowl receivers and an Elite Defense is about as appealing as it gets for a Quarterback.

The Divisions

The Bucs (NFC South):

Tom Brady walked into a division that featured established, but aging veteran Quarterbacks in Drew Brees & Matt Ryan and a Carolina team that was…‘retooling’ to put it politely.

Outside of the Saints, who were coming off of a dominant 13-3 season (albeit with an embarrassing home playoff loss to Kirk Cousins), the division as a whole failed to eclipse .500. Matt Rhule’s reign of terror was in its infancy and Matt Ryan was still traumatized from his previous showdown with Tom.

The Rams (NFC West)

While Stafford’s debut with his new team ended the same as Brady’s, his path could not have been more different. Stafford arrived via a trade as opposed to free agency, which given the time and place, was basically the equivalent of being drafted to go to Vietnam. The NFC West was a bloodbath and the consensus best division in football a few years ago.

Russell Wilson was still playing at a high level for Seattle, Arizona had a strong cast and a young QB in Kyler Murray who was a pain in the ass to tackle, and the 49ers had been Sean McVay’s Daddy for a few years at that point.

The Broncos (AFC West):

Much like Stafford, Russell Wilson arrived via trade and certainly was not facing the path of least resistance. While the AFC West didn’t quite live up to the off-season hype as the new crown jewel division of the NFL, it still featured household names such as Davante Adams, Derwin James, Travis Kelce, and of course all ran through Patrick Mahomes who has never missed an AFC Championship since taking over as the starter for Kansas City.

Needless to say, Wilson entered a division that, on paper, looked every bit as fierce as the one he had just left. The only question was, could he elevate Denver to finally compete for the AFC West? Well obviously the answer was no, as even with the Raiders being a major disappointment in their own right, The Wilson led Broncos only rattled off one measly division win in 2022.

The Jets (AFC East)

The AFC East has come a long way from being Bill Belichik’s bitch year in and year out. The fact that Belichik’s squad is probably the least intimidating at this point speaks volumes. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ roster features more big names than an EDC lineup and there may not be a player in the league more fun to watch than Josh Allen. In our opinion, this may be the best division in football heading into 2023 (more to come on that in an upcoming article 😉).

Rodgers is also inheriting a Jets’ team that went 2-4 in the division last year, which is honestly impressive given the fact that their Offense famously averaged production less than the average Cambodian penis length in a half against the Patriots (look it up, that’s not a joke). Needless to say, there is work to be done for New York, but it’s hard not to salivate at the idea of Rodgers dueling with the face of Madden ‘23 twice a year.

Winner: Bucs

Tompa Brady takes this one too as he clearly picked the least competitive division to join out of this group. Drew Brees may have owned him in the regular season, but by the postseason, this team exorcised its demons against the Saints, become a cohesive offensive unit, and gelled into a well-rounded football team that could consistently put up points while suffocating the opposing offense.

The Coaches

Bucs-Bruce Arians

Record before Brady: 56-39-1 for 58.9%

Rams-Sean McVay:

Record before Stafford: 43-21-0 for 67% with one conference title after resurrecting Goff who was inching towards that B word category (bust not bitch)

Broncos-Nathaniel Hackett: N/A (got his cherry popped in Dangeruss fashion on prom night)

Jets-Robert Saleh:

Record before Rodgers: 11-23 for 32.35%

At face value, Robert Saleh arguably presented the worst case for a prospective HC. Arians and McVay boasted far more impressive resumes to get the most out of their franchises’ facelift and Hackett was an unknown who had been given a lot of credit for Rodgers’ back to back MVP awards.

But as we’ve already mentioned, the kid Rodgers is replacing wasn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard and Saleh is a Defensive guy. So how did his side of the ball look? 18.6 points per game allowed (2nd), 80.5 Average Passer Rating allowed (1st), 311.1 yards per game allowed (4th), and 1.8 opposing Touchdowns allowed per game (1st). Yeah, Saleh knows what he’s doing.

Winner: Rams

While Saleh’s Defense has been impressive and Arians did eventually take his team to the promise land, it’s hard to go anywhere else here than with a Head Coach who had actually been to a Super Bowl before getting his hand selected Quarterback.

The QBs

While the goal here is to evaluate which Quarterback walked into the best situation, it’s also important to look at who that Quarterback was at the time they made the jump to a new team if we really want to know how the latest chapter of this book is going to play out. It is the most important position in the game and not every signal caller is able to replicate who he was in the years before. So while the QB was on the prowl for a new team, said team needed to figure out if their dreams were coming true or if they were getting catfished.

Tom Brady:

Tom Brady had won as many Super Bowl Rings as any franchise in league history when the Bucs signed him in free agency. He was also coming off his lowest completion percentage (60.8) since 2013 and least touchdowns thrown (24) since 2006 while ending his tenure with the Patriots with a pick 6 to seal a One and Done exit in the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs.

At face value, this felt closer to Brett Favre with the Jets than Peyton Manning with the Broncos. And the first half of the season certainly leaned that way too. But Tom Fucking Brady did what Tom Fucking Brady does and figured it the fuck out all the way to an ass whooping against Patrick God Damn Mahomes in the mother fucking Super Bowl.

Matthew Stafford:

Matthew Stafford’s career felt like one that never lived up to its potential before Sean McVay came along. Yet in year 1 with McVay, Stafford tied the best completion percentage of his career and threw for the most yards since a man best known as Megatron graced the league with his presence.

Stafford was truly coming off a stellar season when the Rams pushed all their chips to the middle of the table. He had thrown for over 4,000 yards for the first time since 2017, maintained a completion percentage in the mid 60s, and did it all with a whopping 604 yards of rushing support from his top RB Adrian Peterson.

Russell Wilson:

Russell Wilson was a bigger disappointment than an Ocean Gate Undersea Voyage, Bill Cosby Cocktail, and Hunter Biden Combined. After swinging and missing in the draft for years, the Broncos finally said fuck it and went for the sure thing…..and still missed!

Rumors had been swirling about Wilson losing a step prior to arguably the worst trade in history taking place, but at age 33 it was easy to believe he still had plenty of football left in him. That being said, there were definitely red flags with his game. Down the stretch of the 2021 season, Wilson’s completion percentage dipped below 60 in 5 of his last 9 starts as he and the Seahawks crumbled to Pete Carroll’s first losing record in the Dangeruss era.

Many were quick to attribute that dip in production to Wilson rushing back from an injury sustained earlier in the season against the Rams, but in hindsight it seems there were far more fundamental flaws in his game that should have given the Broncos pause.

Aaron Rodgers:

This is where things get really interesting. Had the Jets acquired Rodgers a year sooner, there would be little to no reason to doubt his abilities. Rodgers won the league MVP award in back to back years for his 2020 & ‘21 campaigns. However in 2022, he lost his top weapon Davante Adams, threw for the most interceptions since his 2008 season, and was eliminated from postseason contention by the Detroit Lions team he had owned his entire career.

Make no mistake, this Packers’ offense featured several young players who were still shitting their pants in LaFleur’s system and there were several miscues that never would have happened in years prior. Yet, it’s disconcerting that Rodgers experienced such a downturn without Davante Adams, while Adams went on to have another All-Pro season his first year in Sin City.

Rodgers will also turn 40 this season (you heard it here first, get ready for the nauseating narratives that will result from this). Of the 15 Quarterbacks to start past age 40, 6 have a record above .500. Rodgers is inheriting a new team with a lot of promise, but he’s still inheriting a new team that hasn’t been there before.

Winner: The Bucs

While Tom Brady didn’t have the best stats of this group heading to his new team, he was far and away the most accomplished Free Agent by a fucking mile. Sure, questions persisted about how much of the success was Bill Belichik and how much was Brady, but no matter how you sliced it this was a Quarterback who had played in 9 Super Bowls and won 6 of them

The Verdict:

While it’s impossible to predict what the next season will bring (look no further than last offseason’s Russell Wilson takes), we can use history as a guide. The teams who made blockbuster QB trades and went on to win Super Bowls had either highly successful Head Coaches, less competitive divisions, or were inheriting a Quarterback with a wealth of experience of playing on the game’s biggest stage.

The other team on this list in the Broncos, did inherit a Quarterback who had played in multiple Super Bowls, but was joining a highly competitive division with an unproven Head Coach. While we wouldn’t rush to put Rodgers in the same category as Russell Wilson, the fact of the matter is his Jets don’t have a proven Head Coach (at least based on his record), play in an extremely competitive division featuring two playoff teams (one of which played in the AFC Championship two seasons ago), and are NOT inheriting a Quarterback who has played in multiple Super Bowls.

That’s right, for all Rodgers’ accolades and (well-deserved) praise, his last Super Bowl appearance was back in 2011, back when there were only five Fast & the Furious movies. Since winning his lone Super Bowl, Rodgers has gone 0-4 in the conference championship.

Between Rodgers’ lack of success on the big stage the last decade, his division, and his age, it’s hard to have Super Bowl expectations for him and his new team. But his recent back-to-back MVPs with Hackett give us hope that he will at least be better than 2022 Russ. With all that said, we’ll predict an 11-6 record with a spirited loss in the Divisional Round. But god dammit we’d love for that Ayuhasca-fueled legend to prove us wrong and get the Peyton Manning treatment before he leaves the league for good.

#aaron rodgers #nfl #ny jets #denver broncos #la rams #tampa bay buccaneers

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