#and the wind storm prediction for thursday just keeps getting worse

[vulpixelates]

aioejfaowief

[fairyofshampgyu]

Now live ! Stream: 5

Genre: smut, camboy au, college au, crack

Pairing: camboy! Beomgyu x gn reader (afab when smut)

Warnings: camboy, sub! beomgyu, dom! reader, use of fleshlight, riding, nipple play, wow they finally fuck , cuddling, reader literally being a full on simp

Synopsis: Every Thursday night at 8pm, you tune into your favourite camboy: Angel313. What you don’t know is he even goes to the same uni as you, is in the same class as you and is Choi Beomgyu, the campus fuckboy but will you keep his secret?

Word count: 2.7k

You travelled hurriedly to beomgyu’s dorm in the snowfall that seemed to progressively get worse, trying to make your way there faster so you wouldn’t have to be in it for that long.

You hated the feeling of snow all on you, clothes and body soggy and cold, it wasn’t very pleasant. Yes, snow was very pretty to look at from inside, watching as it carelessly and elegantly scattered the ground and watching the landscape being blanketed by it, making even the ugliest places look pretty, but being in snow when it fell down harshly and rapidly in excessive cold wind speeds was not pretty.

Finally, you make it into his building, climbing up all the stairs to the very top since the elevator still hadn’t been fixed yet, panting as you knocked on his door.

“Woah. What happened to you?”

“The snow. And your damned dorm being at the highest level for no reason.”

“Ah yeah we were supposed to be working on the music performance today weren’t we? Thought it would have been rain checked due to the weather. Or…should I say snow checked?” Beomgyu laughs at his own joke as you continue to stare at him unamused.

...

“Are you going to let me in?”

“Oh. Yeah.” He opens his door wide for you and you walk in, taking off your coat.

“Wow you have so much snow in your hair.” Beomgyu states, coming to softly stroke and pat your head of the little icy droplets, it takes you a back but you try your hardest to seem unaffected.

“You must be freezing! I’ll make us both hot chocolate.”

“Thanks beomgyu.”

And so, you work on your meeting together about the christmas performance. Whilst you’d gotten the music done and have had many practices now, there’s still lots to take into account and consideration such as lighting and decorations, how long everything had to be, where people will be playing, speeches, etc. You’re huddled there together for a good few hours discussing, planning and sorting things for it.

Just as your wrapping up, ready to go to your lecture together which was soon, both of you get alerted of the weather. A powerful blizzard taking place. Must stay inside. Everyone snowed in. Advised to not go out at all until it’s over which was predicted to last until the whole night. All lectures cancelled for the rest of the day.

Both of you stare up at each other, bewildered, only now hearing the wind howling and the snow hitting against the window extremely fast and powerfully. Whilst it was snowing crazy on the way to beomgyu’s place, you didn’t think or anticipate it to progress into a full blown snow storm. It’d be crazy to go out in that. But you’ve got to try and make it back home or you’re stuck.

You grab your coat and start putting it back on.

“Hey, where are you going? Are you mad? You can’t go out in that!”

“But I should probably go back home!”

“You might die bro! That’s not safe. You might die from like…hypothermia or... get blown away from the winds and then disappear and never be found!” Beomgyu dramaticises, “You should just stay at mine until it calms down.” The snow storm seems gradually get worser and even more severe as he carried on speaking, proving his point and you can hear the windows rattling from the sheer force.

You sigh, “Yeah i guess you’re right, it would be stupid to go out in that.” And he nods.

“Well, looks like we’re snowed in together. What should we do?”

You watch a lot of movies together huddled cozily on his sofa, beomgyu’s commentary making it a lot more funnier and making the incredibly awful films slightly more bearable.

“What B rated Christmas film shall we watch next?” Beomgyu asks after you’re done finishing yet another one.

“Please! No more I need to take a break it’s actually hurting my head.”

He laughs at that, eyes wrinkling cutely and smile so pretty— “What should we do instead?…Y/n? Hello?”

You don’t process what he says at first, too busy lost in your improper thoughts about your partner next to you. “Huh? Oh! Ummm we could film another one of your streams if you want. Now’s good timing since we’re here and not like we can really go anywhere.”

“Yeah that’s true, let’s do it then.” Beomgyu says slightly timidly, still shy about streaming with you.

He gets out his toys and whatnot, you setting up the camera again and you choose the new flesh light both of you had acquired recently with the money from the streams, telling him to use that today since you know it would garner a lot of reactions.

Despite beomgyu being a camboy for quite a while, he’d never actually tried a flesh light properly before and the one you guys had purchased looked a bit too real to him, looking at it already made him kinda hard and also embarrassed.

Once you guys had set up everything and gotten ready for it, you pressed the button to go live and started recording.

Beomgyu sits, legs spread out and bent level to his chest, his pretty belly button piercing in view and his legs covered with his usual pretty thigh highs, taking the fleshlight and very slowly easing it down on tip, his mouth already agape from just that.

He brings the toy down and back up on his length, slowly sucking him in each time, hips rolling languidly into it as you watched in awe, also monitoring the comments who seemed to be in the same predicament as you.

His lip is caught between his teeth, trying to silence his continuous whimpers. He looked so out of it just from fucking into silicone, it drove you mad. He made it so hard just to sit and watch and carry on filming.

Beomgyu's pace grows unsteady, cock throbbing and jerking, getting delirious with each stroke of the now sticky toy, squirming in need whilst you watched him.

He wanted to be touched so bad. He needed you to touch him. He couldn't take it, fucking himself pathetically with just a toy whilst you're right there. He wants you to fuck him. He needs it at this point.

Beomgyu looks straight at you with half lidded eyes, whining and looking at you so seductively, "Wish it was your pussy I was fucking-h-hah...ah."

You know he's just talking to the fans but you can't help imagining he was begging you instead. "Want you to fuck me. I need it please-ahh" Beomgyu hopes you'd get the hint and just come over and fuck him already, whilst also trying to be discrete about it, not wanting to give himself away too much.

You look away, going to the comments, feeling embarrassed about your thoughts and beomgyu suddenly whines incredibly loud, brows furrowing. "Please!!", looking straight into your eyes.

You can't take it anymore. You walk over to him, stilling his movements of the fleshlight and his eyes widen, stumbling over his words. He didn’t think it’d actually work. You move the fleshlight on his dick with your own hands over his, twisting it around and he gasps, looking up at you pleadingly.

“You want to get fucked?” He nods his head continuously. “But you’re a virg-”

“-Please! I want it!”

“Are you sure?” He nods again and breathes out a yes but you still search his eyes for any uncertainty.

When you don’t find any, you remove the fleshlight off him, straddling his hips, taking off your own clothes. You jerk his dick a couple times and then as gently as you can, place his dick to your entrance, slowly sinking on his tip, making his head throw back with a groan before sitting on his whole length, he lets a loud strangled moan at that, “O-oh god…”

You slowly ride him, beomgyu’s mouth in an ‘o’ shape the whole time. He’s fucked himself countless of times before and he never thought actually getting fucked would be much different or would feel that great like some people say but he can confirm that it in fact does feel that great. He didn’t think it would feel this good. He can’t stop moaning and you’re not even remotely going fast.

You can’t believe you’re actually fucking Angel. Like, you’re actually fucking him right now. It’s even better than how you imagined countless times, his reactions so fucking pretty. You used to just watch him from a small screen not knowing who he was and now you’re making him so pussy drunk, eyes rolling to the back of his head, intoxicated and so fucked out from just slowly rolling your hips on his, the first person to fuck him and make him feel like this.

You quicken your pace, hitting a bit deeper and he moans, burying his face in your neck, trembling and drooling. You can hear numerous pings going off every second from people sending in tips. You bet the viewers are going insane right now.

“Y/n, I think-I think I’m gonna cum already…” Beomgyu whimpers, eyes so glazed up, lost in the pleasure and then you feel him suddenly cum inside you with a broken mewl. “Ahh…I-I’m sorry y/n, I’m sorry…!” Beomgyu sniffles, face flushed pink, tears brimming his eyes, so embarrassed from already cumming so fast.

You keep bouncing on his spent dick, ruffling his hair, “it’s okay, baby. You’re doing so good for me. Think you can cum again?”

His eyes widening at the name and praise and you move to gently play with his nipples, body jerking up in response, someone else touching his nipples making him even more sensitive than he usually is, pretty sounds coming out of his mouth none stop as if he’s a drone, cries accelerating and elevating in pitch whilst you fucked him dumb.

“Cum, baby.” So he does again, muffling his screams by burying his face in your neck again, one of his hand coming to claw at your back, shuddering and spilling his release, cumming hard from being fucked for the first time, whole body flushed and glistening, eyes shut and eyebrows still furrowed, his chest rising and falling rapidly as he pants. So, so, so fucking pretty.

You go back to get the camera, zooming in and filming a close up for the viewers of his ‘just fucked and came’ face, beomgyu still delirious and softly groaning and panting, brows still knitted even afterwards.

You check to see how much you guys made and you gasp. It was double the amount even on the days he makes the most money. It was a fuck ton of money.

You go back to beomgyu to see if he’s doing good and it seems like he’s recovering from his high. “Look how much we made.” You show him the tips and even beomgyu gasps.

Once you both had taken it in turns to shower, beomgyu lends you some of his clothes. When you’d agreed to stay at beomgyu’s place until the snow storm calmed down, you didn’t fully realise that would mean staying over night with him even though it literally said it was expected to carry on exactly the same as it was during the night.

And now here you were in his bedroom. It was quite a nice bedroom, you had been in before but you never fully took in the sight of the room, fairy lights strewn across the room, record player, his multiple guitars on one side with band posters and numerous bear plushies on his bed.

"Where are your spare pillows and blankets? I’ll sleep on the floor.”

“I don’t have any spare pillows or blankets. Also I can’t just let my guest sleep on the floor!”

“Then what?”

“We’ll sleep on the bed together. It’s big enough. And you literally just fucked me so I don’t think it really matters.”

He is right about that so you both head to the bed, throwing off some of the plushies except for one which he keeps to the side and you lie down on the left whilst he lies down on the right.

“Good night y/n~”

You can feel his body presence near you. It kinda makes you feel uneasy for some reason. It’s definitely not because you find him really attractive or anything. You don’t find him attractive.

It’s extremely cold due to the blizzard, you’d think being in the bed with covers on you would keep you warm but you’re absolutely fucking freezing.

“Am I the only one completely shivering here?” Beomgyu turns to face you, also cold.

“No you’re not the only one. Do you not have the heating on or something?”

“It’s broken. They still haven’t fixed it.”

“Seriously what’s wrong with your building?”

“I have no idea…You know what this means y/n...? A grin slowly appearing on his face.

“What?”

“We have to cuddle…or we might actually die…” Beomgyu wiggles his eyebrows.

“We’re not cuddling.”

“We’re both freezing! It totally calls for it! This is literally the only one bed trope in real life.”

“You didn’t just say that…”

“We’re living our wattpad moment right now. Don’t you wanna cuddle with your love interest?” Beomgyu makes a kissy face at you and you put your hand to shield him from whatever he was doing, used to his flirty antics by now.

"You'd never be my love interest." It's not that you didn't want to but you're sure your heart would literally give out if you did.

Beomgyu gasps, "How can you say that when I'm so handsome?"

"That's a very generous word to describe yourself."

"I'm going to pretend you didn't just say that and that the offer still stands. This is a LIFE or DEATH situation. We will freeze to death. And die. DIE. "

Well it was very cold. You sigh, "Fine. Come here."

"What? No, you come here."

"I want to be big spoon though!"

"So do I!" You narrow your eyes at him and he does the same.

"Well, we both can't obviously be the big spoon." Beomgyu gives you a deadpan look.

So you both settle for both of you coming in to hug each other, you arms around his waist, his around yours, his head resting snuggly on your shoulder with a content smile. You instantly felt warmer, beomgyu so warm and so close. You were freaking out to say the least but you tried your hardest to seem casual about it all.

“Beomgyu, how did the rumour of you being a fuckboy come about anyway?” You ask, not wanting to go to sleep just yet.

“I don’t know because I can be quite flirty. And there was also this guy that I used to be good friends with and his chick was like in love with me and one time she just randomly kissed me at a party and he got mad at me, saying I was trying to steal his girl even though I literally did nothing and he knew that but then he just started beating me up! And told everyone I was a girlfriend stealer and a fuckboy. We stopped being friends. He still carried on dating that girl, she broke up with him a few months ago though.”

“Oh…”

“Yeah. It kinda sucks to be honest because people either hate me for no actual reason or people at parties just think I’m an easy fuck and only want to fuck me.” Beomgyu pouts.

“Why were you a virgin for so long?”

“Because everyone thought I was like really good at sex if I was a fuckboy so every time I was close to fucking someone I’d just get really nervous they’d think I was super amazing and I couldn’t tell them I was a virgin so I’d just back out.”

“How come you let me?”

“Because we’re close friends! And you know and I didn’t feel like that with you.”

“We’re close…?” Your eyes widen.

“What?! I’m offended you don’t think the same. We’re literally cuddling right now. And we work and hang out together all the time?!”

To be honest, you thought guys were more like acquaintances. You were just working on the performance and helping him with his business, but for him to call you a close friend made you kinda warm and fuzzy inside. You wanted to be Beomgyu’s friend. He was cool actually.

Please actually reblog !!!!!! and comment !!!! if you like the fic. It’s really appreciated tysm !<3����💕😊 It’s discouraging when fics have such little reblogs 🤨👎Feedback is always appreciated it makes me happy :)

A/n: I love how I said idk when this chapter would be out and then ends up posting it the next day 😍😍 Also I’m sorry if this is lowkey bad I had no idea what was going on I am sorry

Taglist:

@pogigyu @denleave1088 @mashimarshmello @stellz581 @cha0thicpisces @soobsfairy444 @lcvetyvn @1ummcalhoody6 @imrllytootiredforthis @bjttersweets @aliceoracleollormusic @yongboksgf @daniarafid @nyanggk @aggiebackstage @openingssequence @qluvr @be0mflwr​ @artypjmlbss @jayoonology @dickdeprived @lilactangerine @kissmeow @katsukeis @shutupheathersorryheatherr @lcvesickgyuzz @mastergibbs93 @tae-ology @popimagines @lynanist @guavagyu @soobhns @mikeeel @multistansimp4life @goquokka @scarfac3 @disneygirl712 @roses-for-my-love @maxismp1 @peachenle @i-loved-you42 @vampcharxter @th3-3d3n-g4rd3n @yuhjoeyuh @ren-junwrld @eggeutarteuu @staurdvst @tyunnie-gyuu @vivioluh @itbtoblikethatsometimes (ask to be added to taglist !!)

[phroyd]

Alberto Reyes fumed. He had paid $50 yesterday to have his air-conditioner checked at an electronics repair shop in Williamsburg to make sure it would be ready for the heat. He took it home and turned it on. Only hot air came out. Now he was back in the shop, his blue polo shirt stained a few shades darker by sweat.

“The fan is useless,” Mr. Reyes complained in Spanish, pacing inside the graffiti-tagged warehouse of a store, where old A.C. units were piled outside. On a day like Saturday, as New York City and much of the country struggled to ride out a heat wave, Mr. Reyes saw his patience melt. “One cannot breathe properly without an A.C.,” he said.

New York roasted on Saturday as the heat approached 100 degrees, and thanks to air thickened by humidity, it felt even hotter. For some, the heat brought only discomfort. Yet officials feared far more perilous consequences. Mayor Bill de Blasio declared a state of emergency lasting through the weekend, saying in a news conference on Friday, “We have not seen temperatures like this in at least seven years.”

Hundreds of cooling centers were opened to protect those most vulnerable to the heat, like older people and the homeless. But lawyers and activists complained that inmates in the city’s jails stifled in units without air-conditioning and, in many cases, while still having to wear uniforms with long sleeves and pants. There were also worries about an overuse of electricity jeopardizing the city’s power system, threatening a blackout.

Ralph Warren collects coconut water outside Brooklyn Blend, his restaurant in Bedford-Stuyvesant.CreditHolly Pickett for The New York Times

Still, New York pulsed with life. The heat did little to stop some New Yorkers from venturing into the streets, however sweaty they might be. They filled museums, formed lines around the block for community pools and went to work.

“The bills have to be paid,” said Ron Mason, 51, a parks worker in a fairly empty Marcus Garvey Park in Harlem, wearing long pants, long sleeves and work gloves. “So, regardless of if it’s burning hot or freezing cold, I’ve got to be out here.”

Extreme heat blanketed much of the continent, stretching as far as the Great Lakes and the Texas panhandle. Across that swath of the country, the authorities mobilized in the same ways as they did in New York. In Washington, homeless people were ushered into shelters. In Boston, officials there also declared a heat emergency and opened cooling centers. In South Dakota, local officials had to shut down a busy interstate after the pavement buckled under the heat.

More than 200,000 homes and businesses in Michigan, mostly in the state’s Western region, remained without power on Saturday after an overnight storm. The power failures could not have come at a worse time, with much of the state under heat warnings and with residents desperate for air conditioning.

Already, the heat has led to several deaths across the country.

A former player for the New York Giants died in Arkansas on Thursday from a heat stroke; the player, Mitch Petrus, 32, had been working outside his family’s shop in his hometown outside Little Rock. And an air-conditioner technician was found in an attic where he had been working in a suburb of Phoenix, and the authorities there said his death was likely caused by the heat.

Meteorologists have predicted a miserable weekend, as a dreadful mix of soaring temperatures and high humidity will create heat indexes as high as 115 degrees in some places. Relief is not expected before the weekend is out. Rain is forecast Monday for many of the areas hit by the heat wave, including New York.

As in Washington, the paved environs of New York made it all even worse. High temperatures can feel particularly brutal thanks to the urban heat island effect, in which heat absorbed by asphalt and concrete makes cities significantly hotter than nearby suburbs — particularly at night, when the temperature gap can be as wide as 22 degrees.

The scorching temperatures this weekend interrupt a summer that has, so far, been a season marked by relentless storms. The summer solstice, on June 21, is supposed to be the day of the year with the longest stretch of sunlight. This year, New York mostly just saw clouds and rain.

The stifling humidity now arrived amid an excessive heat warning for the greater New York City area that began Friday afternoon and was scheduled to last through Sunday evening.

The heat prompted the cancellation of OZY Fest, a hybrid music-lecture-food festival that had been expected to draw tens of thousands to the Great Lawn of Central Park over the weekend; the New York City Triathlon was also canceled. The horse races at Saratoga Race Course were called off as well, the first time they have been canceled over extreme heat in more than a decade.

To help residents and visitors, city officials said they had set up nearly 500 cooling centers for those without air-conditioning to cool off. They also promised to put portable water fountains in places with heavy foot traffic, and issued a Code Red alert to expand outreach efforts to homeless people, including the promise of transportation to cooling areas at shelters. The parks department said it would keep sprinklers in parks running, and extended the hours of city pools and beaches.

Mr. de Blasio, who was bombarded by criticism after being absent during a blackout in Manhattan last Saturday, cleared his presidential campaigning schedule so he could stay in the city.

“This is a very, very difficult situation,” Mr. de Blasio said in a news conference on Friday. “Everyone’s got to take it seriously.”

In anticipation of heightened demand on the power system, the city, in statements, social media posts and news conferences, called on people, especially those in tall office buildings, to keep thermostats and air-conditioners set no lower than 78 degrees.

Con Edison’s president, Tim Cawley, said on Friday the utility was “very confident” that the power grid would withstand the heat, having brought in 4,000 additional workers and extended employees’ shifts. “It’s everybody in, everybody on,” Mr. Cawley said.

By Saturday afternoon, ConEd reported only limited outages in the city.

Workers at a Con Ed building near Union Square in Manhattan were tracking and monitoring any signs of disruption to the power grid on Friday as they prepared for the heat wave that was set to blanket New York.CreditBrittainy Newman/The New York Times

Some New Yorkers benefited from the heat, even as they toiled in it. Jesus Ayala, a Harlem street vendor selling fruit, bottled water and iced tea, had plenty of business as he walked up and down 125th Street. “When it’s a really hot day like this,” he said, “my sales go up 150 percent.”

In Queens, the line to get into Astoria Pool, the city’s larger-than-Olympic outdoor public swimming pool, started forming at 9:30 a.m., and before long, a winding row of straw hats, tank tops, beach bags and backpacks stretched down the block.

Among the people closest to the front of the line were Sean and Madelyn Marteo, and their 7-year-old daughter, Madisyn, of Long Island City.

“Me, I’ll try to find a spot in the shade, take a dip in the pool, wet my hat, wet my shirt — cool out,” Mr. Marteo, 48, said. “And then, when the sun dries it back, just do the whole routine all over again.”

Phroyd

[monabela]

I unintentionally made a series out of this SO here’s part three apparently featuring oz & sey and Creedence Clearwater Revival's Bad Moon Rising. yeah! expect more, at some point. this takes place in 1969, actually!

The Bad Moon

characters/pairings: Australia (David)/Seychelles(Angélique)

word count: 3037 summary: Turns out the town's resident crazy lady is not as crazy as everyone thought - she's known all along, but now that he finally listens, it might be too late.

also on AO3

If he had any pen and paper that wasn’t soaked, David would make a little list, but as it stands, he can only tick things off mentally.

Food: check, found a good amount of canned stuff. Water: no shortage of that. Dry clothes: nope, not for a week now. Lesson learned: fucking listen to Angélique Verlaque, Clarke. She might sound insane from time to time, but somehow, she knows things.

While he is still in the house – his neighbor’s – David takes the phone off its hook in the hallway, knowing full well he won’t even hear a dial tone. The lightning has fried the electricity a week ago, and even if that hadn’t been the case, there’s water up to half his calves right now. He vaguely hopes his neighbor is safe.

Once outside, he sprints – as much he can sprint – to his car, lifting his feet above the water in the street. He must look like an idiot, but there’s no one around to see him. It doesn’t really stop him getting wet either, seeing as it’s still fucking pouring.

A helicopter passes over somewhere in the distance. The emergency services. They’ve been getting gradually closer to his town, which is good. He hopes they can get here before the situation gets any worse.

David takes the winding road into the mountains, where he and Angélique have been staying since the worst of the weather hit, about five days ago. And really, if anyone would have told him that was how he would be spending his time during the storm of the decade, he’d have laughed at them.

Once out of town, David presses play on the cassette still in his car radio. He only just got it before he was called out to Angélique’s place last Thursday.

It happened more often, people calling the station because Ms Verlaque was unnerving them again. She has a habit, and it’s a small town; people have to have something to talk about. If asked at that point in time, David would have said that Angélique was an intelligent and friendly woman who just sometimes fell victim to her own mind and would speak in doom scenarios, and he’d advise anyone not to pay attention to her when she got like that.

Now… He sighs. Well, turns out she had a point in the end, didn’t she?

Rain isn’t exactly unknown around here – clouds formed over the sea can’t cross the mountain range at the end of the peninsula and rain down on the valley completely – and sometimes the river floods, yes, but not… Like this. Not in a way that leaves the entire town covered in water, not over a week of unstoppable downpour. David has never seen anything like this before, and isn’t sure where he would be if not for the fact that he was safe with Angélique, up on the mountain.

She knew. And now she has been saying that there is something else coming, something bad. While he’s still skeptical, David has decided to listen to her from now on. At least about things like this.

He drums on his steering wheel, silently singing along to Fleetwood Mac while he drives up the mountain, leaving the ravaged town behind. The rain still beats on his windshield.

Angélique is standing on the porch of her bungalow when he arrives, safe from the rain under the awning, but she rushes out to help him with the supplies he got as soon as he kills the engine, and the music.

They get everything inside quickly enough, and David changes into some less damp clothes in the bathroom. He looks a little sick in the mirror, but a large part of that must be the green tiles. He doesn’t feel sick. Just tired, and cold. It’s damp even inside, even here, high up where there’s no flooding.

“Hey,” Angélique says softly. She’s leaning against the doorpost when David looks, arms crossed. Her flared sleeves are wrapped around her hands as if they will keep out the chill. “How was town?”

He shrugs in response. “Empty. Wet. I hope everyone’s safe.”

She smiles a sad smile before turning her back and walking to the living room. There’s a fire burning, crackling pleasantly like the world isn’t falling to pieces outside. David sprawls out on the rug in front of it, hoping to soak up some warmth. Angélique sits down to read a book, cross-legged with her back against the couch. Her hair has been getting curlier and curlier over the past days – whatever she did to it to make it straight before must be wearing off.

David likes it.

He, surprisingly, likes her. She’s been levelheaded throughout this whole mess – maybe that’s something that happens when you apparently know what’s going to happen, he thinks. Whatever that is. He feels bad about having dismissed her all this time.

It doesn’t hurt that she is, well, a very attractive woman.

“Hey, Angélique?” he asks, and she looks up, resting her index finger halfway down the page of her book. “Can I ask something about the whole…” He gestures at nothing. “The predicting the future thing?”

She smiles a little. “It’s not so much predicting, I think. I just… I look at people, or at things, every now and then, and I know stuff, and sometime that stuff hasn’t happened yet.” Her gaze skids away from David, and she chews on her full lower lip while her brow furrows.

“What do you know about me?”

“Hm?” She looks up again.

“When you look at me, what do you know about me?” he clarifies. Angélique closes her book and draws her legs up underneath herself, tugging her denim miniskirt down over her thighs when it rides up. Her legs look strong – David fancies she could wrap them around his waist and hold herself up without much trouble.

Wait, she can’t actually read minds, can she? Fucking hell. He thinks about the rain very intently.

“I know your name is David Oliver Clarke,” Angélique says. “You’re 30 years old, born January 26, 1939. You have… Two younger siblings, and honestly I’m surprised you haven’t mentioned them, considering how proud of them you are. You know your brother blames himself for that incident in ’54 that caused you to lose most hearing in your right ear, when you were teaching him how to swim. You write to him every year saying that he shouldn’t do that, and this year he’ll believe you. No one knows about the hearing loss, do they? You were afraid they wouldn’t let you join the police if they did.”

“How the fuck—” David starts, instinctively covering his ear. Only his family knows about that incident – though it’s good news Josh will finally stop getting worked up over it.

She shrugs. “Told you.” But her dark eyes flit away again, as if she’s afraid of a rejection. Hm, she doesn’t know everything.

“Angélique,” he says, “that was boss.”

“I— What? You really think—”

“Yeah!” He pushes himself over to her and leans against the couch as well, close enough that their legs nearly touch – his corduroys and her freckled knees only separated by a tiny sliver of brown carpet. “Wish we’d known before. Maybe you could have helped with something.”

“But you did,” she says, her voice slightly wry, but she smiles still.

“Yeah, alright.” David pushes his hair back from his face and then rests his arm on the couch behind her. Some dark curls tumble over his wrist when she turns her head to him.

“Is there nothing in the future for me?” he asks, and as he says it, he realizes they’re still pretty much in the middle of a very dangerous situation and maybe there really isn’t anything in the future for him, and then what?

However, Angélique smiles and ducks her head, biting her lower lip again. Her teeth have left indents when she looks back up at him. They’re oddly transfixing, although David would much rather he’d made them. Absently, he curls a strand of her hair around his finger while they look at each other. Is she reading him now? Is that how it works?

“There’s, uhm.” She wets her lips now, and David shifts until their legs do touch. “There’s quite a lot of me in your immediate future, actually.”

He grins. “Really? How much is a lot in this case?”

“Oh, you know.” She presses their legs together more firmly and leans over to him. He can see a sliver of green in her eyes, this close, could count the freckles dotting her warm brown skin, which glows in the firelight. He leans forward too, while he touches his fingertips to her knee and lets them trace patterns on her skin.

“Is this alright?” he asks, because even if those hippies with their free love have a good point – he thinks – he doesn’t want to anger the woman largely responsible for his continued survival. Especially not when she knows so much stuff about him.

“That’s great, but it could be better,” Angélique answers with a laugh. “I’d ask you the same thing, but…” She hooks her small fingers in the collar of his T-shirt. “I already know.”

David laughs. “Well, that’s convenient. What else do you know?” His hand slides slowly up her thigh, and she bites her lip again. Her already dark eyes are deeper now, and both of them seem more than happy to just forget about the terrible situation outside for now.

“I don’t know anything that’s very interesting in theory,” she admits.

“I guess we better get practical then,” he says, and while the wind howls outside the bungalow and the rain seems to be on the verge of breaking through the windows with its force, he kisses her. She kisses back without hesitation. Well, if she knew it was coming…

David is unsure why he’s surprised that Angélique knows exactly what he likes – hell, of course she does – and hopes she’ll forgive him that he doesn’t know her preferences in return. She laughs at him when he tells her this, not unkindly, and suggests practice.

“I know not everyone is like me,” she adds, beautifully sprawled on the couch, completely unashamed.

“Have you ever met anyone else?” David asks, curious. “Who can do… Whatever it is you do?”

She gasps gently when he trails his fingers up her leg again, this time unhindered by any fabric.

“I don’t think so. And I’m pretty sure I would have known.” Her breath hitches. “See, I do like that. You’re – you’re learning.”

“Good,” he says, and then nothing for a while.

Over the next three days, neither of them go out because it doesn’t stop raining and there is no need, and he also learns that Angélique does indeed have very strong legs – she surfs, she explains, but not at the same spot he does, and when he asks if they might go catch some waves together when this is all over, she gets a faraway look in her eyes and says she isn’t sure –, that it’s much easier to stay warm like this even if clothes are eschewed often, that Angélique likes horror movies – she can always tell what the actors have really been up to, she says, which is most amusing when it’s horror –, that she loves animals just as he does, and that it would be very possible for him to fall in love with her, given just a little time.

She can’t say if he will. It doesn’t always work in a straightforward way, apparently. Some people are more past than future, “and you,” she tells David, “are very much the present, in a lot of ways.”

He could almost forget about the world falling to pieces outside.

And then, in the morning of the fourteenth day after it began raining, it abruptly stops.

Everything around the bungalow is soggy, and there’s no way the road will be in any condition to drive on, so they aren’t going anywhere, but it’s dry. The sky is clear. And anyway, staying a little longer is just fine by David.

He writes a letter to his sibling that he can post when this is over – they have got to be worried if they saw the news from over here – but can’t finish it, because Angélique comes practically running into the living room with a coat half on and waving a shoe at him while yelling that they need to leave the house immediately. He opens his mouth to ask a question, like what the hell, but has thrown the shoe at him and dashed off already.

Alright. He’ll ask questions later. The lesson about listening to Angélique has been learned.

In more ways than one, he thinks, with a grin at the shoe now on his foot.

It starts the moment he sets foot outside. The slightest tremor, like a train passing close by, but there are no trains anywhere in the mountains, and they wouldn’t be running right now anyway, so it’s something else. David clenches his jaw.

“Lique?” A nickname, caught on quickly – it happens often, with him.

She’s ahead of him, hurrying further up the mountain, jumping from stone to wet stone, but stops and looks over her shoulder. Her beautiful face is set in a grim line, her hair – now all bunched up in tight curls – swept away from her face and into a ponytail.

“Hurry,” she says. “I… I’m not sure what’s coming, but we need to be somewhere else when it does.”

The ground shakes beneath their feet as they climb, making it more and more difficult to keep going, and David wonders if it was the right thing to do, to leave the bungalow. They don’t get earthquakes around here, really, and he’s not sure what you’re supposed to do. On the other hand, Angélique knows… A lot of things.

They reach a stream that’s probably a little mountain brook when the weather has been normal. Now, it roars by with deafening noise. Angélique stops on its banks and pushes her hands into her hair as if in desperation.

“What’s wrong?” David asks, then repeats himself slightly louder to be heard over the roar of the water.

“This!” Angélique gestures frantically at the water. “I know what’s on the other side, I just… I don’t know if…” She swallows hard, and David reaches for her, tugging her against his chest. He rests his chin on her hair, she pushes her nose against the skin of his chest exposed by his shirt.

“Do we need to get to the other side?” he asks.

“I don’t know. I’m sorry. I can’t tell.”

“It’s alright. That’s how the other side lives, Lique.”

She laughs, wrapping her arms around his waist, hands clenching on his back. The stream sprays cold water on them, but they’ve been damp for the past two weeks; it doesn’t matter anymore.

Another rumble shakes the ground, and Angélique holds on tighter. David strokes his fingers up and down her spine and plants his feet firmly on the rock. What do they do now?

“Oh, fuck,” he hears Angélique murmur, and then she’s tugging him down insistently until they practically sprawl on the rock. A second later, a spray of debris sails overhead, scattering among the trees. The ground starts to shake again, and it doesn’t stop.

The forest creaks and groans around them, and the water gets even wilder. David and Angélique remain seated on the rock, even though he feels like they should be doing something. This is nature. You can’t stop fucking nature.

The shaking gets worse. A tree groans and falls over on the other side of the stream, and just like that, more go down, and more and more and David can only cling to Angélique when they hear an almighty crash from just below them, and he knows.

“The bungalow.”

He feels her nod against his shoulder where she’s hiding her face.

Then, another noise. An insistent, booming rumble that gets louder with the second. He tilts his left ear towards it.

“What’s that?” he asks anxiously.

“The dam broke,” Angélique says, and then water crashes around them, hitting like an icy wall and sweeping them both off the rock and away.

David tries to grab something, anything, blindly reaching out with one hand while the other refuses to let go of Angélique, who clings back just as hard in return.

A branch or something, sliding by his hand. He grabs it, and it holds, and he can pull them out of the water just far enough that they can breathe. The current still tries to drag him down, rips at his clothes and his shoe – just the one, he seems to have lost the other, but Angélique is still here, even if she’s apologizing into his chest for not knowing, for not having predicted.

“It’s okay,” he says, raising his voice over the water. “It’s not your fault, you can’t predict everything!”

“It’s not about that,” she replies. “It’s not about this, David.”

When he looks down at her, her eyes are rimmed with red in a way that isn’t just the icy mountain water’s doing. She’s crying.

“We’re fine.” He grips the thing he’s holding tighter, reassuring himself. “When this dies down, we’ll be alright. I’m sure!”

She closes her eyes. He wants to kiss her, but he can’t, not like this. Everything is heavy, but he needs to hold it up. Needs to hold her up.

“We’ll be fine,” he repeats weakly, speaking into the middle distance. His fingers are going numb. Angélique didn’t predict this. Did she?

Fuck.

“Lique?”

She looks up at him with a sad line to her mouth, as if she knows the question he’s going to ask. Come to think of it, she probably fucking does.

“You know how this ends, don’t you?”

Slowly, slowly, she nods. Her expressive eyes are deep and dark, her fingers cold when she splays them on his neck. Curls plaster to her forehead, her throat. She’s still beautiful. And she knows. She knows.

And really, David also knows.

He lets go.

[kansascityhappenings]

Joe’s Weather World: Waves of rain but breaks too (SAT-5/18)

Good afternoon…another wave of storms/rain is coming in after the morning activity and thus far at least my forecast from yesterday is playing out almost to perfection…we have rain cooled air on top of the Metro now…and it’s not really going to be able to destabilze too much for the rest of the afternoon. Storms are likely through 3-4PM or so but a significant evening break may come into the area and dry things out for awhile hopefully helping out with some early evening activities. There may be some locally heavy rains with the afternoon activity but the risk of a significant severe weather situation developing in the KC Metro seems very low to me at this point…whether it be through 4PM or even later tonight.

I talked Thursday about the potential of some minimum criteria severe storms…and at least thus far that’s what we’ve seen. The thing is as the storms come northbound into the cooler air from SE KS (where it is more unstable as I type this) they may just turn into bigger rain makers for us. There is some instability above the cooler surface air though and areas farther SE of KC are getting more unstable so let’s not totally let our guard down for the afternoon at least.

Forecast:

This afternoon: Periods of rain/storms. Some low grade severe weather is possible but I don’t think it will be anything noteworthy for the KC Metro at least right now. The storms may contain some hail. Temperatures will struggle to get to 70° in most areas then waver around with incoming rains. There may be some areas though on the MO side especially that are a bit warmer. A break in the storms/rain should come after 4PM or so.

Tonight: Another round of storms/rain possible after 10PM or so into the early morning hours of Sunday. Lows down into the 50s

Sunday: Variable clouds and cool with blustery winds gusting to 25 MPH. Highs in the 60s

Monday: We’ll stay dry for the day…by night the though risk of overnight storms gets greater with locally heavy rains too. Breezy and cool with highs in the 60s

Discussion:

So let’s start with radar…most important for today.

I’m going to add in Topeka radar too…

The activity moving up from the south did prompt a brief severe t/storm warning earlier from 11 to 11:20 or so in Anderson Co…it was cancelled early…I just have this feeling that the atmosphere is sort of worked over.

I will keep an eye out to the SE of KC especially as there is more instability towards the Lakes region…the 11AM surface map shows temperatures well into the 70s down there and there is a front (outflow) down south of the Metro that is starting to wash out a bit.

The area down south is on the edge of a Tornado Watch…

At 11AM KCI is up to 70°…we may get a few more degrees in before we drop with the incoming rains again…that was one of my predictions from yesterday’s weather casts too. Temperatures may bounce around today with the waves of rain coming through.

The main issue for the situation is the potential for locally heavy rains…the soils can absorb some right now after 5 days without much rain locally…but they can’t absorb a ton. So let’s watch that…my “big picture” thought though is this is setting the stage for the next system coming our way Monday night into Tuesday. By then the soils will not have had a chance to dry out…and that next shot of rain may create another 1-4″ worth in the region…more on that tomorrow.

Meanwhile for the rest of today…here is the short range HRRR model. By the way…HRRR stands for High Resolution Rapid Refresh model and is updated hourly.

Overall rains today should be in the 1/2″ to 2″ range it appears.

The actual cold front will come through during the overnight hours…

Only parts of the area are still under the “slight” risk for severe storms…

Areas in NW MO have been dropped…and the Metro is on the edge…but again tough to see at this point, in my opinion and as I mentioned last night, how much we get above minimum criteria stuff (if even that).

Meanwhile some very impressive tornadoes last night…several cycling supercells with tornadoes at various times in NE and KS.

Some of the craziest tornado video I've ever shot. Today near Minneola, KS https://t.co/l73n7soMxb

— Connor McCrorey (@ConnorWX) May 18, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

“Full” (35 second) video of the tornado near Farnam, NE yesterday. I uploaded it to YouTube since most social services really butcher the quality. You can really see the structure and powerful motion here. What a beast. #newxhttps://t.co/XIwEYRSM5O

— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) May 18, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Monday though could see some worse tornadoes towards the heart of tornado country in May…OK.

Our feature photo comes from ‎Kim O’Neill-Young‎  up in Gower, MO from the other night’s storms.

Joe

from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports https://fox4kc.com/2019/05/18/joes-weather-world-waves-of-rain-but-breaks-too-sat-5-18/

from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2019/05/18/joes-weather-world-waves-of-rain-but-breaks-too-sat-5-18/

[newstfionline]

Headlines

California fire that killed 3 threatens thousands of homes (AP) A Northern California wildfire threatened thousands of homes Thursday after winds whipped it into a monster that incinerated houses in a small mountain community and killed at least three people. Several other people have been critically burned and hundreds, if not thousands, of homes and other buildings are believed to have been damaged or destroyed by the North Complex fire northeast of San Francisco, authorities said. Some 20,000 people were under evacuation orders or warnings in Plumas, Yuba and Butte counties.

500,000 people in Oregon forced to flee wildfires (AP) Authorities in Oregon now say more than 500,000 people statewide have been forced to evacuate because of wildfires. The latest figures from Thursday evening come from the Oregon Office of Emergency Management. That’s over 10% of the state’s 4.2 million population. More than 1,400 square miles (3,625 square kilometers) have burned this week in the state. Authorities say the wildfire activity was particularly acute Thursday afternoon in northwestern Oregon as hot, windy conditions continued.

Think 2020’s disasters are wild? Experts see worse in future (AP) A record amount of California is burning, spurred by a nearly 20-year mega-drought. To the north, parts of Oregon that don’t usually catch fire are in flames. Meanwhile, the Atlantic’s 16th and 17th named tropical storms are swirling, a record number for this time of year. Powerful Typhoon Haishen lashed Japan and the Korean Peninsula this week. Last month it hit 130 degrees in Death Valley, the hottest Earth has been in nearly a century. Phoenix keeps setting triple-digit heat records, while Colorado went through a weather whiplash of 90-degree heat to snow this week. Siberia, famous for its icy climate, hit 100 degrees earlier this year, accompanied by wildfires. Before that Australia and the Amazon were in flames. Amid all that, Iowa’s derecho—bizarre straight-line winds that got as powerful as a major hurricane, causing billions of dollars in damages—barely went noticed. Freak natural disasters—most with what scientists say likely have a climate change connection—seem to be everywhere in the crazy year 2020. But experts say we’ll probably look back and say those were the good old days, when disasters weren’t so wild. “It’s going to get A LOT worse,” Georgia Tech climate scientist Kim Cobb said Wednesday. “I say that with emphasis because it does challenge the imagination. And that’s the scary thing to know as a climate scientist in 2020.” That’s because what’s happening now is just the type of crazy climate scientists anticipated 10 or 20 years ago.

Pleasures of food and sex ‘simply divine’, says Pope Francis (AFP) The pleasures of a well-cooked meal or loving sexual intercourse are “divine” and have unjustly fallen victim to “overzealousness” on the part of the Church in the past, Pope Francis says in a book of interviews published Wednesday. “Pleasure arrives directly from God, it is neither Catholic, nor Christian, nor anything else, it is simply divine,” Francis told Italian writer and gourmet Carlo Petrini. Francis said that there was no place for an “overzealous morality” that denies pleasure, something he admitted existed in the Church in the past but insisted is “a wrong interpretation of the Christian message”. “The pleasure of eating is there to keep you healthy by eating, just like sexual pleasure is there to make love more beautiful and guarantee the perpetuation of the species,” the pope said. Opposing views “have caused enormous harm, which can still be felt strongly today in some cases,” he added.

Speak softly and scatter fewer virus particles (Reuters) More quiet zones in high-risk indoor spaces, such as hospitals and restaurants, could help to cut coronavirus contagion risks, researchers have said, after a study showed that lowering speaking volume can reduce the spread of the disease. A reduction of 6 decibels in average speech levels can have the same effect as doubling a room’s ventilation, scientists said on Wednesday, in an advance copy of a paper detailing their study.

COVID hardships (CJR) Yesterday, NPR, along with the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, published a bleak poll on the economic health of the nation since the pandemic began. Nearly half of respondents said their household has experienced “serious financial problems” linked to COVID-19, including with rent, mortgage, utility, and car payments, affording medical care and food, paying off debt, and maintaining savings. America’s four biggest cities—New York, LA, Chicago, and Houston—have been especially hard hit; more than half of their residents reported losing a job and/or income, and more than half those cities’ households with kids reported serious childcare issues. People of color are doing worse than their white peers: in Houston, for example, over 80 percent of Black households attested to serious financial difficulty. Harvard’s Robert J. Blendon, who worked on the poll and expected the results to be bad, said they were “much, much, much worse than I would’ve predicted.”

Covid Is Turning Us Into Hipsteaders (Bloomberg) While Covid has decimated large swathes of the global economy, it has sparked others, like video conferencing and home appliances. Do-it-yourself pursuits, such as bread making, gardening and crafts, have also boomed and appear primed to last after the pandemic becomes a dark, distant memory. Just as victory gardeners supplemented rations and boosted morale during the World Wars, the DIYers of coronavirus are facing quarantines and shortages with a mix of survivalist bravado and self-expression. Many are skipping the usual retailers, and instead turning to recycled goods, small businesses or individuals for their needs. People who were already DIY hobbyists are expanding their skills. Tynika-Ann Carter, a 24-year-old former model in Western Cape, South Africa, turned to farming and gardening years ago in a quest to replace materialism with something more wholesome. Since the virus, she’s added making baskets, weaving and crocheting. “Covid has given me more time to dive in and give myself fully to the things I love,” she said. Like hipsters, these people are setting new trends and flaunting the look on Instagram. But they’re also doing a lot of the hard, survival-focused work that defines homesteading. Some have dubbed them the hipsteaders.

Letters reveal public distaste for booze in JFK White House (AP) It was a tempest in a teapot—or, more accurately, a whiskey tumbler. Researchers at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum have found a cache of letters from Americans objecting to JFK’s embrace of cocktails at White House events. Eisenhower was no teetotaler, but historians say he presided over a largely cocktail-free White House. Enter Kennedy, who had already raised some eyebrows as the first Roman Catholic to be elected president. JFK Library archivists say the letters of protest began arriving after newspapers reported on Kennedy’s first official event: a January 1961 reception honoring the new president’s appointees. “For the first time, there was a bar in the State Dining Room, with waiters to stir up martinis or pour vodka, Scotch, bourbon, or champagne,” The Washington Post reported. What followed was a sort of low-key Liquorgate. Letters—some typed, others handwritten—expressed shock and worry that the U.S. would lose its dignity and standing in the world. “Dear Mr. President, I think many feel humiliation and disgrace over our nation today when we learn of our White House turned into shameful drunken all-night carousal and dancing,” reads one from Edith Fritz, of Idaho. “Dignity previously engendered—gone. May God have pity upon your poor soul.” The Kennedy administration played down the public’s reaction to the change, noting it received far more letters about civil rights unrest and the Cuban missile crisis. Presidents have held wide-ranging attitudes toward alcohol. George Washington, the nation’s first, is said to have enjoyed whiskey; President Donald Trump, its 45th, doesn’t drink at all, though he has had wine served at state dinners and other functions.

Dozens of Austrians puzzled after receiving U.S. stimulus checks, banks say (Washington Post) Hundreds of people have cashed U.S. stimulus checks at Austrian banks in recent months. Some of them appeared puzzled by the unexpected payments or were ineligible for the payouts, according to bank officials and Austrian media reports. One of the Austrians who claimed to have received such an erroneous check, pensioner Manfred Barnreiter, 73, told Austria’s public broadcaster ORF that he at first believed his check to be part of a sophisticated fraud scheme. “We quietly went to the bank … where we were told they’ll see if it’s real,” Barnreiter told ORF. “Three days later, we had the money in our bank account.” He and his wife received $1,200 each, although neither is a U.S. resident or holds U.S. citizenship—key eligibility requirements. Barnreiter briefly worked in the United States in the 1960s and still receives a small pension from that period of employment, he said. Similar instances have been reported in other countries. The payouts probably still account for a very small fraction of the first $2 trillion U.S. stimulus package.

Fire Destroys Most of Europe’s Largest Refugee Camp, on Greek Island of Lesbos (NYT) Europe’s largest refugee camp, on the Greek island of Lesbos, has long been a desperate makeshift home for thousands of refugees and migrants who have risked everything to flee war and economic hardship for a better life. They lived in cramped tents with limited access to toilets, showers and health care. For years, rights groups warned that these squalid conditions would sooner or later prompt a humanitarian disaster. On Tuesday night, that disaster came. A fast-moving fire destroyed much of the camp, leaving most of its 12,000 residents homeless. By Wednesday, a process of soul-searching had begun among many Europeans, for whom the Moria camp, and the neglect of its residents, has long been synonymous with the continent’s increasingly unsympathetic approach to refugees. No deaths were initially reported. But vast stretches of the camp and an adjacent spillover site were destroyed in the fire, leaving only a medical facility and small clusters of tents untouched.

India has record spike of 95K new virus cases (AP) India reported another record spike of 95,735 new coronavirus infections in the past 24 hours as the virus spreads beyond its major cities. According to the Health Ministry, the number of people known to be infected in India reached 4,465,863 on Thursday. It has the second-highest caseload in the world behind the United States, where more than 6.3 million people are known to be infected.

U.S. has canceled more than 1,000 visas for Chinese nationals deemed security risks (Reuters) The United States has revoked visas for more than 1,000 Chinese nationals under a May 29 presidential proclamation to suspend entry from China of students and researchers deemed security risks, a State Department spokeswoman said on Wednesday. The acting head of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Chad Wolf, said earlier that Washington was blocking visas “for certain Chinese graduate students and researchers with ties to China’s military fusion strategy to prevent them from stealing and otherwise appropriating sensitive research.” China said in June it resolutely opposed any U.S. move to restrict Chinese students from studying in the United States and urged Washington to do more to enhance mutual exchanges and understanding.

For Filipino migrant workers, coronavirus dashes their ticket to a better life (Washington Post) When the novel coronavirus upended lives and livelihoods around the world, it hit the poor especially hard. But the pandemic’s effects also proved damaging for those vying for a foothold in the middle class, knocking them back down the economic ladder. The repercussions are felt in places like the Philippines, the source of a vast migrant labor force that keeps industries ticking, from health care in the West to construction and domestic help in the Middle East. A steady income put many of these workers on their way to a better life, despite difficult conditions, allowing them to send money home, or save for a deposit on a house, car or their children’s education. More than 2 million Filipinos were employed as overseas workers in any given year over the decade preceding the pandemic; their remittances accounted for about 10 percent of the Philippines’ output. But as the coronavirus savaged the world economy, many lost jobs abroad or were unable to take up positions because of travel restrictions. About 170,000 overseas workers have returned to the Philippines since February, official data show. Returnees are recalibrating their lives, coming to terms with diminished earning power and prospects for their families.

U.S. to Reduce Troop Levels in Iraq to 3,000 (NYT) The United States is cutting troop levels in Iraq nearly in half, to 3,000 forces, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East said on Wednesday, in a long-expected move that will help fulfill President Trump’s goal of reducing the Pentagon’s overseas deployments. Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., the commander of the military’s Central Command, said improvements in the Iraqi military’s campaign against the Islamic State enabled the Pentagon to make the additional troop cuts. (Foreign Policy) Stars and Stripes interviewed a number of veterans on the idea of withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan after nearly two decades of operations. The reactions were mixed, but the consensus is that they’re not sure what was accomplished. “That the soldier in question, alive or dead, did their job—they won the battle on the ground, as they were trained to do—there is comfort in that,” Army Staff Sgt. Séamus Fennessy said. “But simultaneously, there is a sense of bitterness against the politicians and bureaucrats for big-picture incompetence.”

Huge fire breaks out at Beirut port a month after explosion (AP) A huge fire broke out Thursday at the Port of Beirut, the site of last month’s catastrophic explosion that killed nearly 200 people and devastated parts of the capital. The new fire nearly 40 days after the blast triggered widespread panic among traumatized residents of the area. The Lebanese army said the fire started at a warehouse where oil and tires are placed in the duty free zone. A column of thick black smoke billowed from the port at midday Thursday, with orange flames leaping from the ground. Smoke covered the capital and firefighters and ambulances rushed to the scene. Army helicopters were taking part in efforts to extinguish the fire. Panicked residents—still struggling to get over last month’s catastrophic explosion—cracked open windows and called and texted each other to warn them of the new danger. Local TV stations said companies that have offices near the port asked their employees to leave the area.

Beirut’s traumatized survivors (Washington Post) Social workers and other specialists working with survivors say many are showing signs of extreme stress, including flashbacks, nightmares and difficulties falling asleep. Half of the respondents in a recent UNICEF survey in Beirut said that the behavior of children in their household had changed or that the children were experiencing symptoms consistent with trauma and stress. One-third said adults in their household were also exhibiting signs of distress. Beirutis are still astonished by the destruction wrought across much of the capital by the explosion at a warehouse storing ammonium nitrate. Nearly 200 people were killed and thousands wounded. Hundreds of thousands were displaced. In the weeks since, residents have experienced post-traumatic stress, which is common in the aftermath of unexpected disasters such as earthquakes, said Elie Chedid, a psychiatrist treating victims of the blast. Some are experiencing survivor’s guilt, and many children are struggling to understand what happened. “It is the first time that they’ve seen blood and destroyed buildings and roads and cars, so for them it’s something very apocalyptic,” he said. Aid workers have responded by gathering children for community activities, creating safe spaces for them to play in public parks and offering basic psychological care. Some children, as well as adults, will require additional assistance as the city continues to rebuild.

[lesliecost]

Thursday, July 30, 2020

​On today’s news! It is a new day for the weather to slap us with a heatwave, a thunderstorm, or maybe just a hurricane. Even the pandora box was more predictable than this. If you are still considering not wearing a mask, the U.S. surpassed the milestone in deaths and you could have been a contributor. The death toll surpasses 150,000. And shall I tell you that 164 pairs of nurses' shoes were placed on the lawn in front of the U.S. capitol to represent the ones who have died in the frontlines against Covid19? No, hydroxychloroquine does not work. And, no, Mr. Dickerson, do not delay the November elections. If you want, he is ranting on twitter. Have fun. Oh, and I do not need to be an economist to know the economy will face a great recession (it is already) but now I wonder, tell me about the great amount of money invested in the army. Also, how do they expect a single stimulus to be enough for five months when the amount is not even enough because it can barely pay rent for some. Maybe the prices should go down, or maybe be more reasonable. Can someone just tell me how the money will go out to the market if it can’t even get in, to begin with? Thank you. Moving on to the Caribbean, Isaias touched down in Dominican-town. Heavy rainfall and wind gusts are expected. Plus, later on, the storm is not only vacationing in the Caribbean, but it is also setting eyes on Florida and the east coast. If you want to see something shocking, look at the before and after pictures of Muslim shippers who attend the Hajj. This year only around 1,000 worshipers are at the annual pilgrimage after Saudi authorities imposed strict crowd control and hygiene measures because of fears of the pandemic. Now that is some organization, we should learn a thing or two from them. They are wearing masks, keeping their distance, and not doubting the existence and fear of a pandemic, but more importantly, they are wearing a damn mask. For their bad luck, in Bolivia, they are not doing the virus testing because they do not have the materials to do so and what's worse, there are no doctors. Goddammit, Morty. Science is a great thing because scientists are hopeful that their discovery might be a breakthrough in Alzheimer’s research after experiments with oxytocin showed it might be useful in treating and maybe even reversing, degenerative disorders. Plus another study of 7 million patients shows that flu shots significantly cuts the risk of heart attack or stroke for people over 50. There is a little more hope for us, I guess. Could we throwback to better days? That’d be great. Happy Cheesecake Day. Today is Thursday, July 30, 2020. Day unknown of quarantine. 

[bountyofbeads]

Hurricane Dorian poised to slam the Carolinas after scraping the coasts of Florida and Georgia

By Jason Samenow and Andrew Freeman | Published September 04, 2019 11:17 AM ET | Washington Post | Posted September 4, 2019 11:54 AM ET

Hurricane Dorian gradually leaves Florida behind Wednesday, setting its sights on the coasts of Georgia and then the Carolinas. These areas face a triple threat of “destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-threatening storm surges,” according to the National Hurricane Center.

While Dorian has stayed far enough off the coast to largely spare Florida from the worst of its wrath, it is forecast to make a much closer approach to the coastline of the Carolinas between late Wednesday and Thursday and could even make landfall. Impacts are thus expected to be more severe.

Around Charleston, S.C., for example, wind gusts could hit 80 mph, and water levels could rank among the top five levels ever recorded due to the combination of ocean surge and up to 15 inches of rain. Higher wind gusts could lash North Carolina’s Outer Banks, leading to power outages and damage.

Even the Virginia Tidewater and southern Delmarva Peninsula could endure tropical storm conditions by Friday, after which the storm is expected to finally zoom away to the northeast.

The Category 2 storm, while no longer the powerhouse that devastated the northwestern Bahamas, has expanded in size. That means its strong winds cover a larger area, capable of generating giant waves and pushing large amounts of water toward the shore. There were signs that Dorian is attempting to intensify over the waters northeast of Florida on Wednesday morning, with a ring of thunderstorms building up around its center. If this trend continues, it could mean even worse impacts for the Carolinas.

Coastal flooding is also a risk from northeastern Florida to the North Carolina Outer Banks, where water levels may rise up to seven feet above normally dry land, prompting storm-surge warnings.

THE LATEST

As of 11 a.m. on Wednesday, the storm was 90 miles east-northeast of Daytona Beach, Fla., and moving north-northwest at 9 mph. The storm’s peak sustained winds were 105 mph, making it a high-end Category 2 storm. Dorian is expected to maintain its current intensity through Thursday.

The storm has grown larger since the weekend; hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Radar showed Dorian’s outer rain bands grazing the coast from Titusville, Fla. north to near Savannah, Ga. During the predawn hours Wednesday, peak wind gusts reached 50 to 70 mph in Volusia and Brevard counties in Florida and the Hurricane Center said tropical storm conditions were continuing to affect portions of the coast of northeast Florida Wednesday morning.

“Remain cautious of strong wind gusts and brief bursts of heavy rain in passing squalls today,” the National Weather Service in Melbourne, Fla., tweeted. “Conditions at beaches are hazardous from #Dorian. The surf remains high and rough, along with a threat of coastal flooding & beach erosion.”

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville also warned of dangerous conditions at the coast due to elevated water levels anticipated at the 1 p.m. high tide. Scenes from social media showed water running up to homes in Vilano Beach, just north of St. Augustine:

FORECAST FOR GEORGIA, THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA

Conditions are expected to deteriorate by Wednesday morning in coastal Georgia and late Wednesday in South Carolina. In North Carolina, it may take until the second half of Thursday for tropical storm conditions to commence. Most of the storm effects in southeastern Virginia should hold off until Friday morning.

The severity of Dorian’s effects will be closely related to how closely Dorian tracks to the coast and whether it makes landfall. Most computer models now forecast the center of Dorian to come very close to the coast of South Carolina and to come ashore in North Carolina, with the highest chance over the Outer Banks.

Computer models generally project that the storm center should remain far enough off the coast of Georgia to limit winds to tropical-storm force (39 to 73 mph) and rainfall totals to 3 to 6 inches. Tropical storm warnings are in effect here.

In the Carolinas, under a hurricane warning, sustained winds could reach 60 to 80 mph with higher gusts, especially along the North Carolina Outer Banks. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are predicted, and localized totals up to 15 inches, meaning a high risk of flash flooding.

The Georgia and South Carolina coastlines are particularly vulnerable to storm surge flooding, even from a storm that does not make landfall, due to the shape of the land on and just offshore, as well as the effects of sea-level rise and land subsidence over time. The surge could reach 3 to 5 feet in Georgia and 5 to 8 feet from the Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. From Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. a surge of 4 to 6 ft is anticipated.

Farther north, the possibility of a 2-to-4-foot surge exists in Hampton Roads, Va.

The Weather Service forecast office in Charleston, S.C., is forecasting that storm-surge flooding may begin to occur there on Wednesday, well ahead of the storm’s center of circulation. Heavy rains of 6 to 10 inches or more could worsen the surge-related flooding by impeding drainage back out to sea.

“The combination of significant storm surge inundation and heavy rainfall will enhance the risk for flash flooding, especially along coast, including Downtown Charleston, portions of the Savannah Metro Area, and the nearby coastal communities,” the Weather Service office in Charleston wrote. “This is a dangerous situation and preparations should be rushed to completion today.”

Depending on the timing of the maximum storm surge, Charleston could see this storm bring one of its top five water levels on record.

Fort Pulaski, Georgia, near Savannah, is forecast to have coastal flooding at midday Wednesday that would be exceeded only by Hurricanes Matthew and Irma, while Charleston may see a 2nd-worst flood event, behind 1989′s Hurricane Hugo, on Wednesday night.

According to the Weather Service office in Charleston, based on the present forecast track, the result could be particularly severe. Among the possible effects, it listed: “Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.”

Locations farther north from Virginia Beach to the Delmarva could get clipped by the storm Friday and Saturday, with heavy rains, tropical storm force winds and coastal flooding.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, including the Virginia Beach area, as well as the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward. Up to 3 to 6 inches of rain could fall.

“The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing,” the Hurricane Center wrote. “Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.”

FORECAST FOR FLORIDA

The forecast track continues to keep Dorian’s most dangerous winds and highest levels of storm-surge flooding from coming ashore in the Sunshine State, but brings the storm close enough to produce heavy rain, damaging winds and 3 to 5 feet of surge from Volusia County north to the Georgia border on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm conditions, with sustained winds of greater than 39 mph, are likely through late Wednesday from the Space Coast northward.

Areas that are especially vulnerable to storm-surge flooding, such as Jacksonville, Fla., could see significant flooding depending on the exact track and timing of the storm.

Rainfall totals are predicted to range from 3 to 6 inches in northeast Florida near the coast, with decreasing amounts inland and to the south.

Northwest Bahamas took a nightmarish, 40 hour direct hit

Between late Sunday and Tuesday, Dorian slammed into the northwestern Bahamas with wind gusts up to 220 mph and a 23-foot storm surge. Video and images emerging from the Bahamas show a toll of absolute devastation on Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands, two locations where the eye of the storm made landfall.

Grand Bahama Island suffered an onslaught from this storm that few places on Earth have experienced, remaining in the eyewall of a major hurricane (between Category 3 and 5) for 40 hours. The eyewall is the most severe part of a hurricane that contains its strongest winds and generates the most destructive storm-surge flooding.

Dorian came to a virtual standstill as it encountered the northwest Bahamas. Between 3 a.m. on Labor Day and 5 a.m. on Tuesday, the storm moved just 30 miles in 28 hours. In addition to wind gusts up to 220 mph and a 23-foot storm surge, up to 40 inches of rain were estimated in some areas.

DORIAN’S PLACE IN HISTORY

Dorian is tied for the second-strongest storm (as judged by its maximum sustained winds) ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean, behind Hurricane Allen of 1980, and, after striking the northern Bahamas, tied with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane for the title of the strongest Atlantic hurricane at landfall.

It is only the second Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the Bahamas since 1983, according to Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. The only other is Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The international hurricane database goes back continuously only to 1983.

The storm’s peak sustained winds rank as the strongest so far north in the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on record. Its pressure, which bottomed out at 910 millibars, is significantly lower than Hurricane Andrew’s when it made landfall in South Florida in 1992 (the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm).

With Dorian attaining Category 5 strength, this is the first time since the start of the satellite era (in the 1960s) that Category 5 storms have developed in the tropical Atlantic for four straight years, according to Capital Weather Gang tropical weather expert Brian McNoldy.

The unusual strength of Dorian and the rate at which it developed is consistent with the expectation of more intense hurricanes in a warming world. Some studies have shown increases in hurricane rapid intensification, and modeling studies project an uptick in the frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms.

Dorian may have also set a record for the longest period of Category 4 and 5 conditions to strike one location in the North Atlantic Basin since the dawn of the satellite era, but historical data is relatively sparse.

[blogcompetnetall]

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle http://www.nature-business.com/nature-hurricane-michael-live-updates-category-2-storm-bears-down-on-florida-panhandle/

Nature

Image

Hurricane Michael was upgraded to a Category 2 storm as it barreled toward the Gulf Coast. It could hit Florida as a Category 3 hurricane.CreditCreditNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Hurricane Michael strengthened into a Category 2 storm on Tuesday as it took clearer aim at the Florida Panhandle, which was bracing for a major hurricane to make landfall on Wednesday.

The hurricane, poised to become the strongest tropical system to make landfall in the mainland United States so far this year, has sustained winds of 110 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning. The storm’s winds are expected to increase, and Michael is on track to become a Category 3 storm later in the day.

Governors in at least three states have declared emergencies, and the local authorities are urging people to evacuate or to fortify their homes ahead of the storm.

Here are the latest developments:

• As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said the storm was moving north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Click on the map below to see the storm’s projected path.

• A hurricane warning was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwannee River in Florida. A hurricane watch was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

• Hurricane Michael could make landfall as a Category 3 storm on Wednesday anywhere from Destin, Fla., to Apalachee Bay, the National Hurricane Center said. It was projected then to veer northeast — through Georgia and the Carolinas — before heading into the Atlantic on Thursday night.

• President Trump on Monday said the Federal Emergency Management Agency was in full preparation mode. “It looked a couple of days ago like it was not going to be much,” he said of the storm, “and now it’s looking like it could be a very big one, so we’re prepared, and good luck.”

• Gas, generators and other emergency supplies were reported sold out in many places, The Tallahassee Democrat reported.

Florida’s governor warns of a ‘monstrous storm’

Gov. Rick Scott of Florida pleaded with residents on Tuesday to heed evacuation orders and to prepare for a storm that he warned “could bring total devastation to parts of our state.”

“Hurricane Michael is a monstrous storm, and the forecast keeps getting more dangerous,” Mr. Scott said during an appearance at the state’s emergency operations center in Tallahassee, the Florida capital.

By Tuesday morning, a handful of counties had issued evacuation orders that were often targeted at visitors or people who live in mobile homes or low-lying areas. “If we need to have evacuations, local communities need to issue the orders now,” Mr. Scott said. “We cannot afford to wait.”

Mr. Scott, a Republican who is on the ballot next month for a United States Senate seat, has declared a state of emergency in 35 counties and deployed 2,000 members of the National Guard. He said he believed people were taking the storm “seriously,” but he also seemed to suggest that some local officials, familiar with the furies of triple-digit wind speeds and torrential rains, were perhaps not sufficiently fearful of Hurricane Michael’s perils.

“I think a lot of people have been through 110-mile-an-hour winds, they’ve been through 12 inches of rain,” he said. “I think what’s different about this storm that really concerns me is the storm surge.”

Weather forecasters, who have said storm surge could reach 12 feet in some areas, have issued a storm surge warning for the stretch between the border of Okaloosa and Walton Counties to the Anclote River. A storm surge watch is in effect on both sides of the warning area: from the Okaloosa and Walton county line westward to Florida’s border with Alabama, and from the Anclote to Anna Maria Island.

On Tuesday, Mr. Scott offered an admonition to residents considering whether to flee, and he said that time was running short.

“If you’re on the fence, don’t think about it,” he said. “Do it.”

Storm could hit ‘an incredibly vulnerable spot’

In many ways, climate change has made hurricanes worse: A rise in sea level is causing higher storm surges, and warmer air is leading to rainier storms.

With Hurricane Michael, local geography also has a role to play in the storm’s impact.

If the predictions of its path hold, the hurricane will be the first to hit this area since Hurricane Hermine in 2016, said Jamie Rhome, a storm surge specialist at the National Hurricane Center. That storm was a Category 1. Hurricane Michael is expected to strike land as a Category 3, a major storm with wind speeds of 111 to 129 m.p.h. That’s enough to uproot trees and tear off roof decking.

Wind, while a source of destruction in storms, is not the only threat. Surge can devastate coastal communities, and the rain dumped by storms can cause flooding far inland. Mr. Rhome noted that while this hurricane’s path was still not certain, its probable impact at the bend of Florida on the way into the Panhandle could be very destructive. “It’s an incredibly vulnerable spot,” he said. “Regardless of whether the track moves a little to the left or the right, or wobbles,” he said, “it’s going to be a bad storm surge event for somebody.”

[Here’s our guide to how hurricanes are classified and why a change in category doesn’t tell the whole story.]

Rick Luettich, director of the Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of North Carolina, said that the area was especially susceptible to a large storm surge because of its “funnel-shaped geometry and broad, shallow continental shelf.”

If there is good news, he said it’s that the area of possible impact “is not as densely populated as other parts of the Gulf Coast, and therefore the human consequences of such a large surge should be less severe than if it hit further west on the Florida Panhandle or further east,” in say, Tampa.

[Does it seem as if severe storms keep damaging the same areas, and those areas are simply built up again? Part of that is the way disaster funding works. Read about it here.]

States throughout the South and Mid-Atlantic are also getting ready

Gov. Nathan Deal of Georgia on Tuesday declared an emergency for 92 of his state’s 159 counties, following Gov. Kay Ivey of Alabama, who issued an emergency declaration on Monday.

The storm is expected to cross Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, and then move offshore into the Atlantic on Friday morning. By the time it does, it will have swept over parts of the Carolinas that were deluged when Hurricane Florence, a Category 1 storm, struck last month.

“Because of the damage caused by Hurricane Florence and the fact that there’s still some standing water in places, we have to be that much more alert about the damage that Hurricane Michael could do,” Gov. Roy Cooper said at a news conference on Tuesday morning in Raleigh, North Carolina’s capital.

“We know we have to be ready, and hurricane-weary North Carolinians cannot let their guard down just because we’re fatigued with Hurricane Florence.”

Mr. Trump also warned residents in areas to the north to be on alert.

Florida is extending the voter registration deadline in some places

Election offices that are closed on Tuesday because of the hurricane will be able to accept paper voter registration applications on the day they reopen, whenever that might be, Secretary of State Ken Detzner said in a memo on Monday night.

The close of voter registration had been scheduled for Tuesday, four weeks before Election Day in a state with some of the country’s marquee races, including contests for governor and a United States Senate seat.

But Mr. Detzner, a Republican who faced Democratic pressure to extend the deadline, effectively waived the deadline, writing that his decision would “ensure that each Supervisor of Elections Office has the same amount of days to register voters at their offices.”

The extension will not apply in all 35 counties for which Governor Scott declared a state of emergency. Election offices in some of those counties, like Alachua, which includes Gainesville, and Hillsborough, which includes Tampa, were expected to be open for business on Tuesday morning.

The deadline for online voter registration — 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday — was unchanged.

Alan Blinder and John Schwartz contributed reporting.

Read More | https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/hurricane-michael.html |

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle, in 2018-10-09 16:42:21

[magicwebsitesnet]

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle http://www.nature-business.com/nature-hurricane-michael-live-updates-category-2-storm-bears-down-on-florida-panhandle/

Nature

Image

Hurricane Michael was upgraded to a Category 2 storm as it barreled toward the Gulf Coast. It could hit Florida as a Category 3 hurricane.CreditCreditNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Hurricane Michael strengthened into a Category 2 storm on Tuesday as it took clearer aim at the Florida Panhandle, which was bracing for a major hurricane to make landfall on Wednesday.

The hurricane, poised to become the strongest tropical system to make landfall in the mainland United States so far this year, has sustained winds of 110 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning. The storm’s winds are expected to increase, and Michael is on track to become a Category 3 storm later in the day.

Governors in at least three states have declared emergencies, and the local authorities are urging people to evacuate or to fortify their homes ahead of the storm.

Here are the latest developments:

• As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said the storm was moving north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Click on the map below to see the storm’s projected path.

• A hurricane warning was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwannee River in Florida. A hurricane watch was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

• Hurricane Michael could make landfall as a Category 3 storm on Wednesday anywhere from Destin, Fla., to Apalachee Bay, the National Hurricane Center said. It was projected then to veer northeast — through Georgia and the Carolinas — before heading into the Atlantic on Thursday night.

• President Trump on Monday said the Federal Emergency Management Agency was in full preparation mode. “It looked a couple of days ago like it was not going to be much,” he said of the storm, “and now it’s looking like it could be a very big one, so we’re prepared, and good luck.”

• Gas, generators and other emergency supplies were reported sold out in many places, The Tallahassee Democrat reported.

Florida’s governor warns of a ‘monstrous storm’

Gov. Rick Scott of Florida pleaded with residents on Tuesday to heed evacuation orders and to prepare for a storm that he warned “could bring total devastation to parts of our state.”

“Hurricane Michael is a monstrous storm, and the forecast keeps getting more dangerous,” Mr. Scott said during an appearance at the state’s emergency operations center in Tallahassee, the Florida capital.

By Tuesday morning, a handful of counties had issued evacuation orders that were often targeted at visitors or people who live in mobile homes or low-lying areas. “If we need to have evacuations, local communities need to issue the orders now,” Mr. Scott said. “We cannot afford to wait.”

Mr. Scott, a Republican who is on the ballot next month for a United States Senate seat, has declared a state of emergency in 35 counties and deployed 2,000 members of the National Guard. He said he believed people were taking the storm “seriously,” but he also seemed to suggest that some local officials, familiar with the furies of triple-digit wind speeds and torrential rains, were perhaps not sufficiently fearful of Hurricane Michael’s perils.

“I think a lot of people have been through 110-mile-an-hour winds, they’ve been through 12 inches of rain,” he said. “I think what’s different about this storm that really concerns me is the storm surge.”

Weather forecasters, who have said storm surge could reach 12 feet in some areas, have issued a storm surge warning for the stretch between the border of Okaloosa and Walton Counties to the Anclote River. A storm surge watch is in effect on both sides of the warning area: from the Okaloosa and Walton county line westward to Florida’s border with Alabama, and from the Anclote to Anna Maria Island.

On Tuesday, Mr. Scott offered an admonition to residents considering whether to flee, and he said that time was running short.

“If you’re on the fence, don’t think about it,” he said. “Do it.”

Storm could hit ‘an incredibly vulnerable spot’

In many ways, climate change has made hurricanes worse: A rise in sea level is causing higher storm surges, and warmer air is leading to rainier storms.

With Hurricane Michael, local geography also has a role to play in the storm’s impact.

If the predictions of its path hold, the hurricane will be the first to hit this area since Hurricane Hermine in 2016, said Jamie Rhome, a storm surge specialist at the National Hurricane Center. That storm was a Category 1. Hurricane Michael is expected to strike land as a Category 3, a major storm with wind speeds of 111 to 129 m.p.h. That’s enough to uproot trees and tear off roof decking.

Wind, while a source of destruction in storms, is not the only threat. Surge can devastate coastal communities, and the rain dumped by storms can cause flooding far inland. Mr. Rhome noted that while this hurricane’s path was still not certain, its probable impact at the bend of Florida on the way into the Panhandle could be very destructive. “It’s an incredibly vulnerable spot,” he said. “Regardless of whether the track moves a little to the left or the right, or wobbles,” he said, “it’s going to be a bad storm surge event for somebody.”

[Here’s our guide to how hurricanes are classified and why a change in category doesn’t tell the whole story.]

Rick Luettich, director of the Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of North Carolina, said that the area was especially susceptible to a large storm surge because of its “funnel-shaped geometry and broad, shallow continental shelf.”

If there is good news, he said it’s that the area of possible impact “is not as densely populated as other parts of the Gulf Coast, and therefore the human consequences of such a large surge should be less severe than if it hit further west on the Florida Panhandle or further east,” in say, Tampa.

[Does it seem as if severe storms keep damaging the same areas, and those areas are simply built up again? Part of that is the way disaster funding works. Read about it here.]

States throughout the South and Mid-Atlantic are also getting ready

Gov. Nathan Deal of Georgia on Tuesday declared an emergency for 92 of his state’s 159 counties, following Gov. Kay Ivey of Alabama, who issued an emergency declaration on Monday.

The storm is expected to cross Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, and then move offshore into the Atlantic on Friday morning. By the time it does, it will have swept over parts of the Carolinas that were deluged when Hurricane Florence, a Category 1 storm, struck last month.

“Because of the damage caused by Hurricane Florence and the fact that there’s still some standing water in places, we have to be that much more alert about the damage that Hurricane Michael could do,” Gov. Roy Cooper said at a news conference on Tuesday morning in Raleigh, North Carolina’s capital.

“We know we have to be ready, and hurricane-weary North Carolinians cannot let their guard down just because we’re fatigued with Hurricane Florence.”

Mr. Trump also warned residents in areas to the north to be on alert.

Florida is extending the voter registration deadline in some places

Election offices that are closed on Tuesday because of the hurricane will be able to accept paper voter registration applications on the day they reopen, whenever that might be, Secretary of State Ken Detzner said in a memo on Monday night.

The close of voter registration had been scheduled for Tuesday, four weeks before Election Day in a state with some of the country’s marquee races, including contests for governor and a United States Senate seat.

But Mr. Detzner, a Republican who faced Democratic pressure to extend the deadline, effectively waived the deadline, writing that his decision would “ensure that each Supervisor of Elections Office has the same amount of days to register voters at their offices.”

The extension will not apply in all 35 counties for which Governor Scott declared a state of emergency. Election offices in some of those counties, like Alachua, which includes Gainesville, and Hillsborough, which includes Tampa, were expected to be open for business on Tuesday morning.

The deadline for online voter registration — 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday — was unchanged.

Alan Blinder and John Schwartz contributed reporting.

Read More | https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/hurricane-michael.html |

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle, in 2018-10-09 16:42:21

[blogwonderwebsites]

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle http://www.nature-business.com/nature-hurricane-michael-live-updates-category-2-storm-bears-down-on-florida-panhandle/

Nature

Image

Hurricane Michael was upgraded to a Category 2 storm as it barreled toward the Gulf Coast. It could hit Florida as a Category 3 hurricane.CreditCreditNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Hurricane Michael strengthened into a Category 2 storm on Tuesday as it took clearer aim at the Florida Panhandle, which was bracing for a major hurricane to make landfall on Wednesday.

The hurricane, poised to become the strongest tropical system to make landfall in the mainland United States so far this year, has sustained winds of 110 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning. The storm’s winds are expected to increase, and Michael is on track to become a Category 3 storm later in the day.

Governors in at least three states have declared emergencies, and the local authorities are urging people to evacuate or to fortify their homes ahead of the storm.

Here are the latest developments:

• As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said the storm was moving north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Click on the map below to see the storm’s projected path.

• A hurricane warning was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwannee River in Florida. A hurricane watch was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

• Hurricane Michael could make landfall as a Category 3 storm on Wednesday anywhere from Destin, Fla., to Apalachee Bay, the National Hurricane Center said. It was projected then to veer northeast — through Georgia and the Carolinas — before heading into the Atlantic on Thursday night.

• President Trump on Monday said the Federal Emergency Management Agency was in full preparation mode. “It looked a couple of days ago like it was not going to be much,” he said of the storm, “and now it’s looking like it could be a very big one, so we’re prepared, and good luck.”

• Gas, generators and other emergency supplies were reported sold out in many places, The Tallahassee Democrat reported.

Florida’s governor warns of a ‘monstrous storm’

Gov. Rick Scott of Florida pleaded with residents on Tuesday to heed evacuation orders and to prepare for a storm that he warned “could bring total devastation to parts of our state.”

“Hurricane Michael is a monstrous storm, and the forecast keeps getting more dangerous,” Mr. Scott said during an appearance at the state’s emergency operations center in Tallahassee, the Florida capital.

By Tuesday morning, a handful of counties had issued evacuation orders that were often targeted at visitors or people who live in mobile homes or low-lying areas. “If we need to have evacuations, local communities need to issue the orders now,” Mr. Scott said. “We cannot afford to wait.”

Mr. Scott, a Republican who is on the ballot next month for a United States Senate seat, has declared a state of emergency in 35 counties and deployed 2,000 members of the National Guard. He said he believed people were taking the storm “seriously,” but he also seemed to suggest that some local officials, familiar with the furies of triple-digit wind speeds and torrential rains, were perhaps not sufficiently fearful of Hurricane Michael’s perils.

“I think a lot of people have been through 110-mile-an-hour winds, they’ve been through 12 inches of rain,” he said. “I think what’s different about this storm that really concerns me is the storm surge.”

Weather forecasters, who have said storm surge could reach 12 feet in some areas, have issued a storm surge warning for the stretch between the border of Okaloosa and Walton Counties to the Anclote River. A storm surge watch is in effect on both sides of the warning area: from the Okaloosa and Walton county line westward to Florida’s border with Alabama, and from the Anclote to Anna Maria Island.

On Tuesday, Mr. Scott offered an admonition to residents considering whether to flee, and he said that time was running short.

“If you’re on the fence, don’t think about it,” he said. “Do it.”

Storm could hit ‘an incredibly vulnerable spot’

In many ways, climate change has made hurricanes worse: A rise in sea level is causing higher storm surges, and warmer air is leading to rainier storms.

With Hurricane Michael, local geography also has a role to play in the storm’s impact.

If the predictions of its path hold, the hurricane will be the first to hit this area since Hurricane Hermine in 2016, said Jamie Rhome, a storm surge specialist at the National Hurricane Center. That storm was a Category 1. Hurricane Michael is expected to strike land as a Category 3, a major storm with wind speeds of 111 to 129 m.p.h. That’s enough to uproot trees and tear off roof decking.

Wind, while a source of destruction in storms, is not the only threat. Surge can devastate coastal communities, and the rain dumped by storms can cause flooding far inland. Mr. Rhome noted that while this hurricane’s path was still not certain, its probable impact at the bend of Florida on the way into the Panhandle could be very destructive. “It’s an incredibly vulnerable spot,” he said. “Regardless of whether the track moves a little to the left or the right, or wobbles,” he said, “it’s going to be a bad storm surge event for somebody.”

[Here’s our guide to how hurricanes are classified and why a change in category doesn’t tell the whole story.]

Rick Luettich, director of the Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of North Carolina, said that the area was especially susceptible to a large storm surge because of its “funnel-shaped geometry and broad, shallow continental shelf.”

If there is good news, he said it’s that the area of possible impact “is not as densely populated as other parts of the Gulf Coast, and therefore the human consequences of such a large surge should be less severe than if it hit further west on the Florida Panhandle or further east,” in say, Tampa.

[Does it seem as if severe storms keep damaging the same areas, and those areas are simply built up again? Part of that is the way disaster funding works. Read about it here.]

States throughout the South and Mid-Atlantic are also getting ready

Gov. Nathan Deal of Georgia on Tuesday declared an emergency for 92 of his state’s 159 counties, following Gov. Kay Ivey of Alabama, who issued an emergency declaration on Monday.

The storm is expected to cross Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, and then move offshore into the Atlantic on Friday morning. By the time it does, it will have swept over parts of the Carolinas that were deluged when Hurricane Florence, a Category 1 storm, struck last month.

“Because of the damage caused by Hurricane Florence and the fact that there’s still some standing water in places, we have to be that much more alert about the damage that Hurricane Michael could do,” Gov. Roy Cooper said at a news conference on Tuesday morning in Raleigh, North Carolina’s capital.

“We know we have to be ready, and hurricane-weary North Carolinians cannot let their guard down just because we’re fatigued with Hurricane Florence.”

Mr. Trump also warned residents in areas to the north to be on alert.

Florida is extending the voter registration deadline in some places

Election offices that are closed on Tuesday because of the hurricane will be able to accept paper voter registration applications on the day they reopen, whenever that might be, Secretary of State Ken Detzner said in a memo on Monday night.

The close of voter registration had been scheduled for Tuesday, four weeks before Election Day in a state with some of the country’s marquee races, including contests for governor and a United States Senate seat.

But Mr. Detzner, a Republican who faced Democratic pressure to extend the deadline, effectively waived the deadline, writing that his decision would “ensure that each Supervisor of Elections Office has the same amount of days to register voters at their offices.”

The extension will not apply in all 35 counties for which Governor Scott declared a state of emergency. Election offices in some of those counties, like Alachua, which includes Gainesville, and Hillsborough, which includes Tampa, were expected to be open for business on Tuesday morning.

The deadline for online voter registration — 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday — was unchanged.

Alan Blinder and John Schwartz contributed reporting.

Read More | https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/hurricane-michael.html |

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle, in 2018-10-09 16:42:21

[captainblogger100posts]

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle http://www.nature-business.com/nature-hurricane-michael-live-updates-category-2-storm-bears-down-on-florida-panhandle/

Nature

Image

Hurricane Michael was upgraded to a Category 2 storm as it barreled toward the Gulf Coast. It could hit Florida as a Category 3 hurricane.CreditCreditNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Hurricane Michael strengthened into a Category 2 storm on Tuesday as it took clearer aim at the Florida Panhandle, which was bracing for a major hurricane to make landfall on Wednesday.

The hurricane, poised to become the strongest tropical system to make landfall in the mainland United States so far this year, has sustained winds of 110 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning. The storm’s winds are expected to increase, and Michael is on track to become a Category 3 storm later in the day.

Governors in at least three states have declared emergencies, and the local authorities are urging people to evacuate or to fortify their homes ahead of the storm.

Here are the latest developments:

• As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said the storm was moving north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Click on the map below to see the storm’s projected path.

• A hurricane warning was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwannee River in Florida. A hurricane watch was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

• Hurricane Michael could make landfall as a Category 3 storm on Wednesday anywhere from Destin, Fla., to Apalachee Bay, the National Hurricane Center said. It was projected then to veer northeast — through Georgia and the Carolinas — before heading into the Atlantic on Thursday night.

• President Trump on Monday said the Federal Emergency Management Agency was in full preparation mode. “It looked a couple of days ago like it was not going to be much,” he said of the storm, “and now it’s looking like it could be a very big one, so we’re prepared, and good luck.”

• Gas, generators and other emergency supplies were reported sold out in many places, The Tallahassee Democrat reported.

Florida’s governor warns of a ‘monstrous storm’

Gov. Rick Scott of Florida pleaded with residents on Tuesday to heed evacuation orders and to prepare for a storm that he warned “could bring total devastation to parts of our state.”

“Hurricane Michael is a monstrous storm, and the forecast keeps getting more dangerous,” Mr. Scott said during an appearance at the state’s emergency operations center in Tallahassee, the Florida capital.

By Tuesday morning, a handful of counties had issued evacuation orders that were often targeted at visitors or people who live in mobile homes or low-lying areas. “If we need to have evacuations, local communities need to issue the orders now,” Mr. Scott said. “We cannot afford to wait.”

Mr. Scott, a Republican who is on the ballot next month for a United States Senate seat, has declared a state of emergency in 35 counties and deployed 2,000 members of the National Guard. He said he believed people were taking the storm “seriously,” but he also seemed to suggest that some local officials, familiar with the furies of triple-digit wind speeds and torrential rains, were perhaps not sufficiently fearful of Hurricane Michael’s perils.

“I think a lot of people have been through 110-mile-an-hour winds, they’ve been through 12 inches of rain,” he said. “I think what’s different about this storm that really concerns me is the storm surge.”

Weather forecasters, who have said storm surge could reach 12 feet in some areas, have issued a storm surge warning for the stretch between the border of Okaloosa and Walton Counties to the Anclote River. A storm surge watch is in effect on both sides of the warning area: from the Okaloosa and Walton county line westward to Florida’s border with Alabama, and from the Anclote to Anna Maria Island.

On Tuesday, Mr. Scott offered an admonition to residents considering whether to flee, and he said that time was running short.

“If you’re on the fence, don’t think about it,” he said. “Do it.”

Storm could hit ‘an incredibly vulnerable spot’

In many ways, climate change has made hurricanes worse: A rise in sea level is causing higher storm surges, and warmer air is leading to rainier storms.

With Hurricane Michael, local geography also has a role to play in the storm’s impact.

If the predictions of its path hold, the hurricane will be the first to hit this area since Hurricane Hermine in 2016, said Jamie Rhome, a storm surge specialist at the National Hurricane Center. That storm was a Category 1. Hurricane Michael is expected to strike land as a Category 3, a major storm with wind speeds of 111 to 129 m.p.h. That’s enough to uproot trees and tear off roof decking.

Wind, while a source of destruction in storms, is not the only threat. Surge can devastate coastal communities, and the rain dumped by storms can cause flooding far inland. Mr. Rhome noted that while this hurricane’s path was still not certain, its probable impact at the bend of Florida on the way into the Panhandle could be very destructive. “It’s an incredibly vulnerable spot,” he said. “Regardless of whether the track moves a little to the left or the right, or wobbles,” he said, “it’s going to be a bad storm surge event for somebody.”

[Here’s our guide to how hurricanes are classified and why a change in category doesn’t tell the whole story.]

Rick Luettich, director of the Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of North Carolina, said that the area was especially susceptible to a large storm surge because of its “funnel-shaped geometry and broad, shallow continental shelf.”

If there is good news, he said it’s that the area of possible impact “is not as densely populated as other parts of the Gulf Coast, and therefore the human consequences of such a large surge should be less severe than if it hit further west on the Florida Panhandle or further east,” in say, Tampa.

[Does it seem as if severe storms keep damaging the same areas, and those areas are simply built up again? Part of that is the way disaster funding works. Read about it here.]

States throughout the South and Mid-Atlantic are also getting ready

Gov. Nathan Deal of Georgia on Tuesday declared an emergency for 92 of his state’s 159 counties, following Gov. Kay Ivey of Alabama, who issued an emergency declaration on Monday.

The storm is expected to cross Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, and then move offshore into the Atlantic on Friday morning. By the time it does, it will have swept over parts of the Carolinas that were deluged when Hurricane Florence, a Category 1 storm, struck last month.

“Because of the damage caused by Hurricane Florence and the fact that there’s still some standing water in places, we have to be that much more alert about the damage that Hurricane Michael could do,” Gov. Roy Cooper said at a news conference on Tuesday morning in Raleigh, North Carolina’s capital.

“We know we have to be ready, and hurricane-weary North Carolinians cannot let their guard down just because we’re fatigued with Hurricane Florence.”

Mr. Trump also warned residents in areas to the north to be on alert.

Florida is extending the voter registration deadline in some places

Election offices that are closed on Tuesday because of the hurricane will be able to accept paper voter registration applications on the day they reopen, whenever that might be, Secretary of State Ken Detzner said in a memo on Monday night.

The close of voter registration had been scheduled for Tuesday, four weeks before Election Day in a state with some of the country’s marquee races, including contests for governor and a United States Senate seat.

But Mr. Detzner, a Republican who faced Democratic pressure to extend the deadline, effectively waived the deadline, writing that his decision would “ensure that each Supervisor of Elections Office has the same amount of days to register voters at their offices.”

The extension will not apply in all 35 counties for which Governor Scott declared a state of emergency. Election offices in some of those counties, like Alachua, which includes Gainesville, and Hillsborough, which includes Tampa, were expected to be open for business on Tuesday morning.

The deadline for online voter registration — 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday — was unchanged.

Alan Blinder and John Schwartz contributed reporting.

Read More | https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/hurricane-michael.html |

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle, in 2018-10-09 16:42:21

[internetbasic9]

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle https://ift.tt/2NzrFEZ

Nature

Image

Hurricane Michael was upgraded to a Category 2 storm as it barreled toward the Gulf Coast. It could hit Florida as a Category 3 hurricane.CreditCreditNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Hurricane Michael strengthened into a Category 2 storm on Tuesday as it took clearer aim at the Florida Panhandle, which was bracing for a major hurricane to make landfall on Wednesday.

The hurricane, poised to become the strongest tropical system to make landfall in the mainland United States so far this year, has sustained winds of 110 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning. The storm’s winds are expected to increase, and Michael is on track to become a Category 3 storm later in the day.

Governors in at least three states have declared emergencies, and the local authorities are urging people to evacuate or to fortify their homes ahead of the storm.

Here are the latest developments:

• As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said the storm was moving north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Click on the map below to see the storm’s projected path.

• A hurricane warning was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwannee River in Florida. A hurricane watch was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

• Hurricane Michael could make landfall as a Category 3 storm on Wednesday anywhere from Destin, Fla., to Apalachee Bay, the National Hurricane Center said. It was projected then to veer northeast — through Georgia and the Carolinas — before heading into the Atlantic on Thursday night.

• President Trump on Monday said the Federal Emergency Management Agency was in full preparation mode. “It looked a couple of days ago like it was not going to be much,” he said of the storm, “and now it’s looking like it could be a very big one, so we’re prepared, and good luck.”

• Gas, generators and other emergency supplies were reported sold out in many places, The Tallahassee Democrat reported.

Florida’s governor warns of a ‘monstrous storm’

Gov. Rick Scott of Florida pleaded with residents on Tuesday to heed evacuation orders and to prepare for a storm that he warned “could bring total devastation to parts of our state.”

“Hurricane Michael is a monstrous storm, and the forecast keeps getting more dangerous,” Mr. Scott said during an appearance at the state’s emergency operations center in Tallahassee, the Florida capital.

By Tuesday morning, a handful of counties had issued evacuation orders that were often targeted at visitors or people who live in mobile homes or low-lying areas. “If we need to have evacuations, local communities need to issue the orders now,” Mr. Scott said. “We cannot afford to wait.”

Mr. Scott, a Republican who is on the ballot next month for a United States Senate seat, has declared a state of emergency in 35 counties and deployed 2,000 members of the National Guard. He said he believed people were taking the storm “seriously,” but he also seemed to suggest that some local officials, familiar with the furies of triple-digit wind speeds and torrential rains, were perhaps not sufficiently fearful of Hurricane Michael’s perils.

“I think a lot of people have been through 110-mile-an-hour winds, they’ve been through 12 inches of rain,” he said. “I think what’s different about this storm that really concerns me is the storm surge.”

Weather forecasters, who have said storm surge could reach 12 feet in some areas, have issued a storm surge warning for the stretch between the border of Okaloosa and Walton Counties to the Anclote River. A storm surge watch is in effect on both sides of the warning area: from the Okaloosa and Walton county line westward to Florida’s border with Alabama, and from the Anclote to Anna Maria Island.

On Tuesday, Mr. Scott offered an admonition to residents considering whether to flee, and he said that time was running short.

“If you’re on the fence, don’t think about it,” he said. “Do it.”

Storm could hit ‘an incredibly vulnerable spot’

In many ways, climate change has made hurricanes worse: A rise in sea level is causing higher storm surges, and warmer air is leading to rainier storms.

With Hurricane Michael, local geography also has a role to play in the storm’s impact.

If the predictions of its path hold, the hurricane will be the first to hit this area since Hurricane Hermine in 2016, said Jamie Rhome, a storm surge specialist at the National Hurricane Center. That storm was a Category 1. Hurricane Michael is expected to strike land as a Category 3, a major storm with wind speeds of 111 to 129 m.p.h. That’s enough to uproot trees and tear off roof decking.

Wind, while a source of destruction in storms, is not the only threat. Surge can devastate coastal communities, and the rain dumped by storms can cause flooding far inland. Mr. Rhome noted that while this hurricane’s path was still not certain, its probable impact at the bend of Florida on the way into the Panhandle could be very destructive. “It’s an incredibly vulnerable spot,” he said. “Regardless of whether the track moves a little to the left or the right, or wobbles,” he said, “it’s going to be a bad storm surge event for somebody.”

[Here’s our guide to how hurricanes are classified and why a change in category doesn’t tell the whole story.]

Rick Luettich, director of the Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of North Carolina, said that the area was especially susceptible to a large storm surge because of its “funnel-shaped geometry and broad, shallow continental shelf.”

If there is good news, he said it’s that the area of possible impact “is not as densely populated as other parts of the Gulf Coast, and therefore the human consequences of such a large surge should be less severe than if it hit further west on the Florida Panhandle or further east,” in say, Tampa.

[Does it seem as if severe storms keep damaging the same areas, and those areas are simply built up again? Part of that is the way disaster funding works. Read about it here.]

States throughout the South and Mid-Atlantic are also getting ready

Gov. Nathan Deal of Georgia on Tuesday declared an emergency for 92 of his state’s 159 counties, following Gov. Kay Ivey of Alabama, who issued an emergency declaration on Monday.

The storm is expected to cross Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, and then move offshore into the Atlantic on Friday morning. By the time it does, it will have swept over parts of the Carolinas that were deluged when Hurricane Florence, a Category 1 storm, struck last month.

“Because of the damage caused by Hurricane Florence and the fact that there’s still some standing water in places, we have to be that much more alert about the damage that Hurricane Michael could do,” Gov. Roy Cooper said at a news conference on Tuesday morning in Raleigh, North Carolina’s capital.

“We know we have to be ready, and hurricane-weary North Carolinians cannot let their guard down just because we’re fatigued with Hurricane Florence.”

Mr. Trump also warned residents in areas to the north to be on alert.

Florida is extending the voter registration deadline in some places

Election offices that are closed on Tuesday because of the hurricane will be able to accept paper voter registration applications on the day they reopen, whenever that might be, Secretary of State Ken Detzner said in a memo on Monday night.

The close of voter registration had been scheduled for Tuesday, four weeks before Election Day in a state with some of the country’s marquee races, including contests for governor and a United States Senate seat.

But Mr. Detzner, a Republican who faced Democratic pressure to extend the deadline, effectively waived the deadline, writing that his decision would “ensure that each Supervisor of Elections Office has the same amount of days to register voters at their offices.”

The extension will not apply in all 35 counties for which Governor Scott declared a state of emergency. Election offices in some of those counties, like Alachua, which includes Gainesville, and Hillsborough, which includes Tampa, were expected to be open for business on Tuesday morning.

The deadline for online voter registration — 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday — was unchanged.

Alan Blinder and John Schwartz contributed reporting.

Read More | https://ift.tt/2Pkwzaw |

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle, in 2018-10-09 16:42:21

[internetbetterforall]

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle http://www.nature-business.com/nature-hurricane-michael-live-updates-category-2-storm-bears-down-on-florida-panhandle/

Nature

Image

Hurricane Michael was upgraded to a Category 2 storm as it barreled toward the Gulf Coast. It could hit Florida as a Category 3 hurricane.CreditCreditNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Hurricane Michael strengthened into a Category 2 storm on Tuesday as it took clearer aim at the Florida Panhandle, which was bracing for a major hurricane to make landfall on Wednesday.

The hurricane, poised to become the strongest tropical system to make landfall in the mainland United States so far this year, has sustained winds of 110 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning. The storm’s winds are expected to increase, and Michael is on track to become a Category 3 storm later in the day.

Governors in at least three states have declared emergencies, and the local authorities are urging people to evacuate or to fortify their homes ahead of the storm.

Here are the latest developments:

• As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said the storm was moving north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Click on the map below to see the storm’s projected path.

• A hurricane warning was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwannee River in Florida. A hurricane watch was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

• Hurricane Michael could make landfall as a Category 3 storm on Wednesday anywhere from Destin, Fla., to Apalachee Bay, the National Hurricane Center said. It was projected then to veer northeast — through Georgia and the Carolinas — before heading into the Atlantic on Thursday night.

• President Trump on Monday said the Federal Emergency Management Agency was in full preparation mode. “It looked a couple of days ago like it was not going to be much,” he said of the storm, “and now it’s looking like it could be a very big one, so we’re prepared, and good luck.”

• Gas, generators and other emergency supplies were reported sold out in many places, The Tallahassee Democrat reported.

Florida’s governor warns of a ‘monstrous storm’

Gov. Rick Scott of Florida pleaded with residents on Tuesday to heed evacuation orders and to prepare for a storm that he warned “could bring total devastation to parts of our state.”

“Hurricane Michael is a monstrous storm, and the forecast keeps getting more dangerous,” Mr. Scott said during an appearance at the state’s emergency operations center in Tallahassee, the Florida capital.

By Tuesday morning, a handful of counties had issued evacuation orders that were often targeted at visitors or people who live in mobile homes or low-lying areas. “If we need to have evacuations, local communities need to issue the orders now,” Mr. Scott said. “We cannot afford to wait.”

Mr. Scott, a Republican who is on the ballot next month for a United States Senate seat, has declared a state of emergency in 35 counties and deployed 2,000 members of the National Guard. He said he believed people were taking the storm “seriously,” but he also seemed to suggest that some local officials, familiar with the furies of triple-digit wind speeds and torrential rains, were perhaps not sufficiently fearful of Hurricane Michael’s perils.

“I think a lot of people have been through 110-mile-an-hour winds, they’ve been through 12 inches of rain,” he said. “I think what’s different about this storm that really concerns me is the storm surge.”

Weather forecasters, who have said storm surge could reach 12 feet in some areas, have issued a storm surge warning for the stretch between the border of Okaloosa and Walton Counties to the Anclote River. A storm surge watch is in effect on both sides of the warning area: from the Okaloosa and Walton county line westward to Florida’s border with Alabama, and from the Anclote to Anna Maria Island.

On Tuesday, Mr. Scott offered an admonition to residents considering whether to flee, and he said that time was running short.

“If you’re on the fence, don’t think about it,” he said. “Do it.”

Storm could hit ‘an incredibly vulnerable spot’

In many ways, climate change has made hurricanes worse: A rise in sea level is causing higher storm surges, and warmer air is leading to rainier storms.

With Hurricane Michael, local geography also has a role to play in the storm’s impact.

If the predictions of its path hold, the hurricane will be the first to hit this area since Hurricane Hermine in 2016, said Jamie Rhome, a storm surge specialist at the National Hurricane Center. That storm was a Category 1. Hurricane Michael is expected to strike land as a Category 3, a major storm with wind speeds of 111 to 129 m.p.h. That’s enough to uproot trees and tear off roof decking.

Wind, while a source of destruction in storms, is not the only threat. Surge can devastate coastal communities, and the rain dumped by storms can cause flooding far inland. Mr. Rhome noted that while this hurricane’s path was still not certain, its probable impact at the bend of Florida on the way into the Panhandle could be very destructive. “It’s an incredibly vulnerable spot,” he said. “Regardless of whether the track moves a little to the left or the right, or wobbles,” he said, “it’s going to be a bad storm surge event for somebody.”

[Here’s our guide to how hurricanes are classified and why a change in category doesn’t tell the whole story.]

Rick Luettich, director of the Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of North Carolina, said that the area was especially susceptible to a large storm surge because of its “funnel-shaped geometry and broad, shallow continental shelf.”

If there is good news, he said it’s that the area of possible impact “is not as densely populated as other parts of the Gulf Coast, and therefore the human consequences of such a large surge should be less severe than if it hit further west on the Florida Panhandle or further east,” in say, Tampa.

[Does it seem as if severe storms keep damaging the same areas, and those areas are simply built up again? Part of that is the way disaster funding works. Read about it here.]

States throughout the South and Mid-Atlantic are also getting ready

Gov. Nathan Deal of Georgia on Tuesday declared an emergency for 92 of his state’s 159 counties, following Gov. Kay Ivey of Alabama, who issued an emergency declaration on Monday.

The storm is expected to cross Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, and then move offshore into the Atlantic on Friday morning. By the time it does, it will have swept over parts of the Carolinas that were deluged when Hurricane Florence, a Category 1 storm, struck last month.

“Because of the damage caused by Hurricane Florence and the fact that there’s still some standing water in places, we have to be that much more alert about the damage that Hurricane Michael could do,” Gov. Roy Cooper said at a news conference on Tuesday morning in Raleigh, North Carolina’s capital.

“We know we have to be ready, and hurricane-weary North Carolinians cannot let their guard down just because we’re fatigued with Hurricane Florence.”

Mr. Trump also warned residents in areas to the north to be on alert.

Florida is extending the voter registration deadline in some places

Election offices that are closed on Tuesday because of the hurricane will be able to accept paper voter registration applications on the day they reopen, whenever that might be, Secretary of State Ken Detzner said in a memo on Monday night.

The close of voter registration had been scheduled for Tuesday, four weeks before Election Day in a state with some of the country’s marquee races, including contests for governor and a United States Senate seat.

But Mr. Detzner, a Republican who faced Democratic pressure to extend the deadline, effectively waived the deadline, writing that his decision would “ensure that each Supervisor of Elections Office has the same amount of days to register voters at their offices.”

The extension will not apply in all 35 counties for which Governor Scott declared a state of emergency. Election offices in some of those counties, like Alachua, which includes Gainesville, and Hillsborough, which includes Tampa, were expected to be open for business on Tuesday morning.

The deadline for online voter registration — 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday — was unchanged.

Alan Blinder and John Schwartz contributed reporting.

Read More | https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/hurricane-michael.html |

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle, in 2018-10-09 16:42:21

[algarithmblognumber]

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle http://www.nature-business.com/nature-hurricane-michael-live-updates-category-2-storm-bears-down-on-florida-panhandle/

Nature

Image

Hurricane Michael was upgraded to a Category 2 storm as it barreled toward the Gulf Coast. It could hit Florida as a Category 3 hurricane.CreditCreditNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Hurricane Michael strengthened into a Category 2 storm on Tuesday as it took clearer aim at the Florida Panhandle, which was bracing for a major hurricane to make landfall on Wednesday.

The hurricane, poised to become the strongest tropical system to make landfall in the mainland United States so far this year, has sustained winds of 110 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning. The storm’s winds are expected to increase, and Michael is on track to become a Category 3 storm later in the day.

Governors in at least three states have declared emergencies, and the local authorities are urging people to evacuate or to fortify their homes ahead of the storm.

Here are the latest developments:

• As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said the storm was moving north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Click on the map below to see the storm’s projected path.

• A hurricane warning was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwannee River in Florida. A hurricane watch was in effect from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

• Hurricane Michael could make landfall as a Category 3 storm on Wednesday anywhere from Destin, Fla., to Apalachee Bay, the National Hurricane Center said. It was projected then to veer northeast — through Georgia and the Carolinas — before heading into the Atlantic on Thursday night.

• President Trump on Monday said the Federal Emergency Management Agency was in full preparation mode. “It looked a couple of days ago like it was not going to be much,” he said of the storm, “and now it’s looking like it could be a very big one, so we’re prepared, and good luck.”

• Gas, generators and other emergency supplies were reported sold out in many places, The Tallahassee Democrat reported.

Florida’s governor warns of a ‘monstrous storm’

Gov. Rick Scott of Florida pleaded with residents on Tuesday to heed evacuation orders and to prepare for a storm that he warned “could bring total devastation to parts of our state.”

“Hurricane Michael is a monstrous storm, and the forecast keeps getting more dangerous,” Mr. Scott said during an appearance at the state’s emergency operations center in Tallahassee, the Florida capital.

By Tuesday morning, a handful of counties had issued evacuation orders that were often targeted at visitors or people who live in mobile homes or low-lying areas. “If we need to have evacuations, local communities need to issue the orders now,” Mr. Scott said. “We cannot afford to wait.”

Mr. Scott, a Republican who is on the ballot next month for a United States Senate seat, has declared a state of emergency in 35 counties and deployed 2,000 members of the National Guard. He said he believed people were taking the storm “seriously,” but he also seemed to suggest that some local officials, familiar with the furies of triple-digit wind speeds and torrential rains, were perhaps not sufficiently fearful of Hurricane Michael’s perils.

“I think a lot of people have been through 110-mile-an-hour winds, they’ve been through 12 inches of rain,” he said. “I think what’s different about this storm that really concerns me is the storm surge.”

Weather forecasters, who have said storm surge could reach 12 feet in some areas, have issued a storm surge warning for the stretch between the border of Okaloosa and Walton Counties to the Anclote River. A storm surge watch is in effect on both sides of the warning area: from the Okaloosa and Walton county line westward to Florida’s border with Alabama, and from the Anclote to Anna Maria Island.

On Tuesday, Mr. Scott offered an admonition to residents considering whether to flee, and he said that time was running short.

“If you’re on the fence, don’t think about it,” he said. “Do it.”

Storm could hit ‘an incredibly vulnerable spot’

In many ways, climate change has made hurricanes worse: A rise in sea level is causing higher storm surges, and warmer air is leading to rainier storms.

With Hurricane Michael, local geography also has a role to play in the storm’s impact.

If the predictions of its path hold, the hurricane will be the first to hit this area since Hurricane Hermine in 2016, said Jamie Rhome, a storm surge specialist at the National Hurricane Center. That storm was a Category 1. Hurricane Michael is expected to strike land as a Category 3, a major storm with wind speeds of 111 to 129 m.p.h. That’s enough to uproot trees and tear off roof decking.

Wind, while a source of destruction in storms, is not the only threat. Surge can devastate coastal communities, and the rain dumped by storms can cause flooding far inland. Mr. Rhome noted that while this hurricane’s path was still not certain, its probable impact at the bend of Florida on the way into the Panhandle could be very destructive. “It’s an incredibly vulnerable spot,” he said. “Regardless of whether the track moves a little to the left or the right, or wobbles,” he said, “it’s going to be a bad storm surge event for somebody.”

[Here’s our guide to how hurricanes are classified and why a change in category doesn’t tell the whole story.]

Rick Luettich, director of the Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of North Carolina, said that the area was especially susceptible to a large storm surge because of its “funnel-shaped geometry and broad, shallow continental shelf.”

If there is good news, he said it’s that the area of possible impact “is not as densely populated as other parts of the Gulf Coast, and therefore the human consequences of such a large surge should be less severe than if it hit further west on the Florida Panhandle or further east,” in say, Tampa.

[Does it seem as if severe storms keep damaging the same areas, and those areas are simply built up again? Part of that is the way disaster funding works. Read about it here.]

States throughout the South and Mid-Atlantic are also getting ready

Gov. Nathan Deal of Georgia on Tuesday declared an emergency for 92 of his state’s 159 counties, following Gov. Kay Ivey of Alabama, who issued an emergency declaration on Monday.

The storm is expected to cross Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, and then move offshore into the Atlantic on Friday morning. By the time it does, it will have swept over parts of the Carolinas that were deluged when Hurricane Florence, a Category 1 storm, struck last month.

“Because of the damage caused by Hurricane Florence and the fact that there’s still some standing water in places, we have to be that much more alert about the damage that Hurricane Michael could do,” Gov. Roy Cooper said at a news conference on Tuesday morning in Raleigh, North Carolina’s capital.

“We know we have to be ready, and hurricane-weary North Carolinians cannot let their guard down just because we’re fatigued with Hurricane Florence.”

Mr. Trump also warned residents in areas to the north to be on alert.

Florida is extending the voter registration deadline in some places

Election offices that are closed on Tuesday because of the hurricane will be able to accept paper voter registration applications on the day they reopen, whenever that might be, Secretary of State Ken Detzner said in a memo on Monday night.

The close of voter registration had been scheduled for Tuesday, four weeks before Election Day in a state with some of the country’s marquee races, including contests for governor and a United States Senate seat.

But Mr. Detzner, a Republican who faced Democratic pressure to extend the deadline, effectively waived the deadline, writing that his decision would “ensure that each Supervisor of Elections Office has the same amount of days to register voters at their offices.”

The extension will not apply in all 35 counties for which Governor Scott declared a state of emergency. Election offices in some of those counties, like Alachua, which includes Gainesville, and Hillsborough, which includes Tampa, were expected to be open for business on Tuesday morning.

The deadline for online voter registration — 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday — was unchanged.

Alan Blinder and John Schwartz contributed reporting.

Read More | https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/hurricane-michael.html |

Nature Hurricane Michael Live Updates: Category 2 Storm Bears Down on Florida Panhandle, in 2018-10-09 16:42:21

[visionmpbpl-blog]

New Post has been published on http://www.visionmp.com/hurricane-warnings-life-threatening-florence-gets-closer-us-coast/

Hurricane Warnings As "Life-Threatening" Florence Gets Closer To US Coast

Expanding in size and strengthening yet again, violent Hurricane Florence is on a beeline toward the East Coast as an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 hurricane. Catastrophic flooding and destructive winds are becoming very likely in the eastern Carolinas north of Charleston, where hurricane warnings were issued late Tuesday. Forecasts generally project the storm to make landfall between northern South Carolina and North Carolina’s Outer Banks as a Category 3 or 4 Thursday into Friday, although shifts in the track are possible and storm impacts will expand great distances beyond where landfall occurs.

The National Hurricane Center is warning of a triple threat in the Carolinas and Virginia:

A “life-threatening storm surge” at the coast – a rise in ocean water over normally dry land.

“Life-threatening freshwater flooding from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event” from the coast to interior sections.

“Damaging hurricane-force winds” at the coast and some distance inland.

Like Hurricane Harvey, which stalled over Texas in 2017, Florence could linger over the Southeast for several days after landfall, unloading 15 to 20 inches of rain and isolated amounts to 30 inches. The Hurricane Center said this is “likely” to produce catastrophic flash flooding.

The flooding might be similar to or worse than what the Carolinas experienced during Hurricane Matthew in 2016.

More than 1.5 million people have been ordered to evacuate coastal areas ahead of the storm, due to both destructive winds and storm surge which could place normally dry land under at least 10 feet of water.

“All interests from South Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice given by local officials,” the Hurricane Center said.

“Even if you’ve ridden out storms before, this one is different,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said at a Tuesday afternoon news conference, where he announced the mandatory evacuation of the state’s popular and fragile barrier islands. “It’s an extremely dangerous, life-threatening, historic hurricane,” noting the forecast for days and days of rain.

Even before South Carolina’s mandatory evacuation order for coastal areas took effect at noon, cameras showed traffic at a crawl on the main interstate connecting Charleston and Columbia. In North Carolina, Dare County officials warned that ocean overwash already was spilling onto low-lying roads and slowing evacuations there.

The monstrous storm already has forced the closing of hundreds of schools throughout the region. Because Florence’s rainfall is expected to pound areas far from the coast, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Duke and North Carolina State universities canceled classes through week’s end. Boeing and Volvo shut down their Charleston factories, idling thousands who build 787s and sedans. South Carolina’s governor has ordered more than a million people living along the state’s coast to evacuate the area ahead of Hurricane Florence.

In Virginia, officials said inland flooding was likely to be catastrophic and could test the James River flood walls in Richmond, the state capital. The Navy commander of the Mid-Atlantic region authorized an emergency evacuation order for personnel who live in the low-lying area under mandatory evacuation, and corrections officials said they had evacuated a prison in that area. The mayor of the District of Columbia joined Maryland’s governor in declaring an emergency in the nation’s capital.

President Donald Trump has approved emergency disaster declarations for the Carolinas and Virginia, which frees up funds for relief and recovery. “We’re as ready as anybody has ever been,” he said after a briefing with FEMA Administrator William “Brock” Long and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen.

“Florence could be the most dangerous storm in the history of the Carolinas,” Long, a North Carolina native, tweeted Tuesday.

As of 5 p.m., Florence’s top winds increased to 140 mph, which “could be conservative” according to the Hurricane Center. It was tracking west-northwest at 17 mph, and about 785 miles east-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina.

The Hurricane Center is calling the storm “extremely dangerous,” and predicts its maximum winds could still reach 155 mph at peak intensity, which is just 2 mph from Category 5. Some modest weakening may occur just before landfall, but Florence is predicted to approach the coast as a Category 3 or 4.

The storm’s zone of hurricane-force winds expanded Tuesday, and extend 60 miles from the center while tropical-storm-force winds extend 170 miles outward.

Storm timing:

In coastal areas of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, heavy surf and elevated water levels are expected to arrive by Wednesday morning, and rainfall could begin by late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The rain is then predicted to spread inland by Friday and potentially continue for days as the storm slows or stalls.

Tropical-storm-force winds could reach the coastline as early as Thursday morning, at which point all outdoor preparations should be completed.

Extremely dangerous hurricane-force winds could batter coastal locations by Friday. Hurricane-to-tropical-storm-force winds could extend well inland, depending on the storm’s track.

Storm hazards:

Like a bulldozer, the storm’s winds and forward motion will push a tremendous amount of water onshore when it makes landfall. The storm surge, or rise in water above normally dry land at the coast, could reach up to more than a story high, or 13 feet, if the maximum surge coincides at high tide.

Jeff Masters, the meteorologist who pens Weather Underground’s Category 6 blog, reported a maximum surge of 15 to 20 feet is possible which would rival heights from hurricanes Hugo (1989) and Hazel (1954).

The biggest surge should occur just to the north of where the eye of the storm comes ashore, which the Hurricane Center projects in southeast North Carolina.

The surge will result in inundation of roads, homes and businesses.

Storm surge warnings were issued from South Santee River in South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina. The Charleston area is under a storm surge watch.

The Hurricane Center projects the following surge heights above normally dry land, if the maximum surge coincides with high tide:

–Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers: 9 to 13 feet

–North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear: 6 to 9 feet

–Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet: 6 to 9 feet

–South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach: 4 to 6 feet

–Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border: 4 to 6 feet

–Edisto Beach to South Santee River: 2 to 4 feet

Rain

Models have come into agreement that a northward turn before reaching the United States is unlikely and that a building high-pressure zone north of the storm will cause it to slow or stall once it reaches the coast or shortly thereafter. Where exactly the zone of heaviest rain will be is a big uncertainty. It could reasonably occur anywhere between the mountains and the coast.

If the storm stalls, some areas could see feet of rain, especially if downpours focus over the higher terrain in western North Carolina and southwestern and central Virginia.

However, some of the latest forecast models suggest the heaviest rainfall could focus on the eastern Carolinas.

If the storm drifts into Virginia, this region will be particularly susceptible to flooding because of far-above-normal rainfall in the region since May. In addition, because the ground is likely to be saturated, trees will be vulnerable in strong winds.

Parts of the Mid-Atlantic, especially from Virginia to Pennsylvania, have received 150 to 300 percent of their normal rainfall since May.

Wind

The strongest winds will occur where and when the storm makes landfall in a ring around the calm eye of the storm known as the eyewall. If the storm makes landfall as a Category 4, these winds will be destructive, sustained at up to 130 mph or so with higher gusts.

The zone where these intense winds occur will be narrow, but the effects will probably be devastating, similar to a strong tornado. The Hurricane Center describes the types of damage associated with Category 4 winds:

Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Outside of this zone of destructive winds, damaging winds are still likely, even some distance inland from the coast, which will lead to minor structural damage, downed trees and widespread power outages.

If the storm stalls in eastern Carolinas as or just after the storm makes landfall, these wind impacts will be magnified.

—

The latest path projections

Where the storm makes landfall has implications for where the strongest winds and biggest rise in water at the coast occurs, but strong winds and extreme rainfall could occur at great distances from the landfall location. Keeping this in mind, here is the likelihood of landfall at different locations based on our evaluation of model data:

–80 percent in the Carolinas

–10 percent offshore

–5 percent between northern Florida and Georgia

–5 percent north of the Carolinas

Even in the unlikely event that the storm center remains just offshore, it will almost certainly come close enough to bring dangerous wind and flooding to coastal areas. Areas farther to the north and west may be somewhat spared in this scenario.

While the storm is expect to unleash its worst effects on the Carolinas and Virginia, residents farther north in coastal and inland areas in the Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York should also monitor the storm and prepare in case the forecast shifts to the north and east after landfall.

Florence’s place in history

If Florence makes landfall as a Category 4 in North Carolina, it would be the strongest storm to come ashore that far north on record.

If a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) does make landfall along the Southeast coast, the rarity of such an event is relevant. Since 1851, only 10 major hurricanes have done so, and the most recent was Fran in 1996, 22 years ago. Hugo in 1989 was the one before that and was a Category 4 at landfall. No hurricane has made landfall as a Category 5 in this region on record.

Many people in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic probably have not experienced a storm of the potential magnitude of Florence.