#and second or third or fourth in the poll bracket is probably like. top 40% depending on the size of the bracket

[gender-void-partially-stars]

as a nerd i despise how tumblr poll brackets have become so mainstream because theyre not close to an objective way to actually determine the most [whatever the poll is about] of a group but as a tumblr user hee hee polls go crazy

[junker-town]

Elite Eight teams in the men’s NCAA tournament, ranked by their title chances

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Let’s rank Elite Eight teams in the men’s NCAA tournament.

There’s always the concern that an upset-laden opening weekend makes for a boring conclusion to the NCAA tournament. So far, that hasn’t been the case in the men’s bracket even after a barrage of upsets through the first four days. The Sweet 16 still produced captivating basketball, and most importantly kept the top teams rolling right into the Elite Eight.

All three No. 1 seeds that advanced out of the first weekend are still alive as we head to the regional finals. We still have elite NBA talent playing in the tournament, with projected top-three picks Evan Mobley (USC) and Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga) about to face-off in a showcase game on Tuesday. Even the teams we can’t believe are here — UCLA and Oregon State, namely — have the size and the perimeter play to pull one more upset.

This tournament has already been so much fun, and it feels like the best is yet to come. We ranked the remaining eight teams in the men’s tournament by who has the best shot at winning it all.

8. Oregon State Beavers (No. 12 seed)

It would be an extreme understatement to say Oregon State wasn’t supposed to be here. The Beavers were picked to finish dead last in the Pac-12 before the season. They hovered around .500 for most the year, and had no chance of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Oregon State entered the Pac-12 tournament on March 11 knowing every game it would play from here on out was a must win. After six games, the Beavers are still rolling.

Oregon State knocked out No. 8 seed Loyola-Chicago, 65-58, in the first game of the Sweet 16 on Saturday by flummoxing the Ramblers with a zone defense. After Loyola looked so good in knocking out No. 1 seed Illinois in their last game, the Beavers’ combination of size and athleticism finally made them look like a mid-major team. Ethan Thompson (22 points) is turning into a star shooting guard, Jerod Lucas can hit shots, Warith Alatishe is a long-and-bouncy wing who excels defensively, and Roman Silva is a 7’1 senior center who can bother shots at the rim. The Beavers milk the shot clock on every possession, and have the length to close out hard on shooters. It isn’t always pretty, but there’s no denying the results at this point.

This Beavers run is real. Houston shouldn’t be too comfortable.

7. UCLA Bruins (No. 11 seed)

The winningest program in the history of college basketball should probably not count as a Cinderella, but there’s no other way to explain how unlikely this UCLA run has been. The Bruins entered the year ranked No. 22 in the preseason polls, but lost arguably their best player, 6’10 forward Chris Smith, to a torn ACL eight games into the campaign. UCLA bounced back to dominate a large portion of its Pac-12 slate, but then lost its last three games of the regular season and before getting knocked out in its first game of the conference tournament. The Bruins just slid in to the big dance, earning a First Four matchup against Michigan State, which it trailed for most of the night before forcing overtime and pulling away in the extra frame.

The Bruins beat BYU and Abilene Christian easily to bust into the Sweet 16, but a date with Nate Oats and Alabama was always going to be a significantly more difficult test. UCLA was not supposed to win that game, not even when it took a double-digit lead into halftime, not when star wing Johnny Juzang fouled out, and especially not when the Tide forced overtime with a deep buzzer-beating three from Alex Reese. But somehow, UCLA responded in ultra-impressive fashion in the extra five minutes to keep this run going.

UCLA will be an underdog against Michigan in the Elite Eight, but the shot-making of their two 6’6 wings — Juzang and Jaime Jaquez — gives them a puncher’s chance. It’s bizarre that the Bruins ever made it this far. Why stop now?

6. Arkansas Razorbacks (No. 3 seed)

There’s an entire generation of college basketball fans who have never seen Arkansas enjoy this level of success in March Madness. The Razorbacks entered the second weekend of the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1996, back when head coach Nolan Richardson helmed one of the best programs in the country. Eric Musselman isn’t on that level yet in his second season on the bench for the Hogs, but he’s already taking the team to heights it hasn’t seen since Richardson’s heyday.

Oral Roberts gave the Razorbacks everything they could handle in its bid to be the first No. 15 seed to ever reach the Elite Eight, but Max Abmas’ game-winning shot bounced off the rim and the Hogs advanced with a 72-70 victory. It’s the second straight two-point win for Arkansas in the tournament, and once again it was not pretty. The Hogs shot only 1-of-9 from three-point range, and mostly won the game by dominating the offensive glass. Northern Kentucky transfer Jalen Tate led the way with 22 points, while star freshman Moses Moody shot just 4-of-20.

Arkansas plays fast and attacks you defensively with a good mix of high-pedigree youngsters and battle-tested vets who don’t get overwhelmed by the moment. There are no style points to be had here, but the formula works, and Arkansas just keeps winning. If they beat Baylor, we’ll really start to believe.

5. USC Trojans (No. 6 seed)

USC was a frustrating team to watch for most of the season. Evan Mobley made it immediately apparent that he was a special talent, but it often felt like the Trojans didn’t know how to fully tap into his awesome ability. USC had tons of size inside but not many shot creators on the perimeter. It only took threes on 31.7 percent of its possessions (which ranked No. 307 in DI) despite having good shooters. It felt like Mobley should have been an even greater focal point offensively. Either those concerns were always overblown, or the Trojans just took some time to figure things out. Either way, they’re rolling at the right time straight into the Elite Eight.

USC blew out its third straight opponent in this tournament by disposing of Oregon in the Sweet 16 on Sunday night. This suddenly looks like a legit powerhouse, with a top-15 offense, a top-five defense, and a future NBA star tying it all together. The Trojans have tremendous length on the inside with Mobley and his older brother Isaiah protecting the paint. The perimeter players are knocking down shots. All of this might be surprising if you watched USC all season, but none of it seems like a fluke right now.

USC vs. Gonzaga might be the most anticipated game of the tournament so far. The Zags haven’t seen anything like Mobley yet. USC’s defense is about to face the ultimate test against one of the best offenses college basketball has ever seen in the modern era. USC’s tournament run has been full of special performances so far. Let’s see if they have one more left in them.

4. Houston Cougars (No. 2 seed)

Kelvin Sampson has quietly been building a sustainable winner in the American Athletic Conference over the last six years. His Houston Cougars have won at least 21 games in each of those seasons, and would be making their fourth straight tournament appearance if last year’s postseason wasn’t canceled. This is Sampson’s best team yet thanks to a roster that has both continuity and star-power. As the big boys in the Midwest region have fallen, Houston just keeps going.

The Cougars blitzed Syracuse’s vaunted zone with speed and shooting in a 62-46 victory in the Sweet 16. Houston finished with three times as many assists as the Orange even as they shot just 7-of-26 from three. Star guard Quentin Grimes, a former Kansas transfer, led the way with 14 points, while former UMass transfer DeJon Jarreau added nine points, eight assists, and eight rebounds. Houston is top-8 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and typically plays at an ultra slow pace with an emphasis on hitting the offensive glass. It isn’t the most glamorous style, but the Cougs haven’t been stopped yet.

Going against Syracuse’s zone should prepare Houston for an Oregon State team that used a zone to beat Loyola in the last round. With one more win, Sampson will finally get his due for what he’s been building for years.

3. Michigan Wolverines (No. 1 seed)

Michigan men’s basketball was one of the most successful programs in the country over the last decade under John Beilein, but there was no guarantee it was going to continue when Juwan Howard took over the program two years ago. Plenty of other former NBA stars had gone back to coach their alma maters and flamed out, but Howard was always too sharp for that. Despite starting the season as the final team ranked in the AP Poll, the Wolverines quickly made it apparent that they were one of the best teams in the country. Not even an injury to star senior forward Isaiah Livers just before the tournament has changed that so far during this postseason.

Florida State was a trendy pick to upset Michigan in the Sweet 16, but the Wolverines owned all 40 minutes on their way to a 76-58 win. This game showed why Howard’s team is ranked in the top-10 in efficiency on both both sides of the ball. Franz Wagner, a 6’9 combo forward, played like the NBA lottery pick he’s projected to be with 13 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists. Star freshman Hunter Dickinson (14 points) looked great in the middle, while Chaundee Brown (12 points) again proved he’s one of the country’s best reserves. Mike Smith and Eli Brooks are an undersized backcourt, but both are so good in their roles. Brandon Johns filled in admirably for Livers, and will need to keep that up for this run to continue.

The Wolverines still have an incredibly talented front court even without Livers, and the guards are able to get a bucket in a pinch. This looks like an extremely deserving No. 1 seed even if we can’t quite put them ahead of the two other top seeds still standing in the bracket.

2. Baylor Bears (No. 1 seed)

Baylor has been one of the best teams in college basketball for two straight seasons now with a core led by the guard trio of Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, and MaCio Teague. The Bears never got to show what they were made of last season before the pandemic canceled the tournament, but they would have been a No. 1 seed and a favorite to reach the Final Four for the first time in Scott Drew’s career. Drew’s team has picked up right where it left off this season, only with even more weapons and another year of built-in chemistry this time around.

After a shaky first half, Baylor looked every bit like a powerhouse in closing out No. 5 seed Villanova, 62-51, in the Sweet 16 on Saturday. Mitchell was electric with his pesky on-ball defense and quick-strike driving ability. Butler had a cold shooting night but still a found a way to get to the basket for a couple key second half buckets. Adam Flagler, a newcomer this season as a transfer from Presbyterian, added 16 points off the bench. The Bears have so many different guards who can cut you up on offense while still being able to get after you on the defensive end (No. 27 in efficiency).

This is an elite team in every way, one that is absolutely good enough to win the whole tournament. It’s going to take a Herculean effort for any team to knock them out.

1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (No. 1 seed)

Gonzaga has looked like the best team in the country from the very first game of the season, when they dropped 102 points in a breezy win over Kansas. The Zags ran the table through the rest of the non-conference slate — including wins over West Virginia, Iowa, and Virginia, all of whom were top-4 seeds in March Madness — and then stayed undefeated by blitzing West Coast Conference opponents. This has looked like one of the best college basketball teams in recent memory by the eye test, and the numbers back it up: Gonzaga’s adjusted efficiency margin of +37.82 is the highest since KenPom started tracking the stat in 2002.

Creighton played well in the Sweet 16 and still lost by 18 points in a win that showed off Gonzaga’s embarrassment of riches. The Zags have an All-American-caliber player at guard (Jalen Suggs), on the wing (Corey Kispert), and in the front court (Drew Timme). Their three-guard, four-out offense is a blur of cutting, spacing, and ball movement with knockdown shooters dotting the arc. Joel Ayayi and Andrew Nembhard would be stars elsewhere but are significantly overqualified as fourth and fifth options with the Zags. Good luck stopping this attack.

The Zags are good enough to be men’s college basketball’s first undefeated national champion since Indiana in 1976. They’re the favorites until someone proves they can knock them off.

[jodyedgarus]

Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Women’s Tournament

The early release of the women’s NCAA tournament bracket on Monday afternoon actually did fans a favor: If any year merits having additional time to fill out a bracket, this year is it. Three different teams were ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press poll this season, and a storyline has been how open the competition was for the top spots in each region. ESPN’s Mechelle Voepel wrote on Monday night that this year’s NCAA tournament “might be as wide open as any since 2006,” with as many as seven teams that could legitimately cut down the net on April 7.

Luckily, FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness prediction model is here to guide you as you make your picks. You can read about how the model works here or keep reading to learn what the model predicts for the top seeds, which teams could make an unexpected run and which squads could bow out sooner than expected. We’re also highlighting the best first-round matchups to help you schedule your Friday and Saturday around women’s hoops.

Top seeds

The four No. 1 seeds are Baylor, Notre Dame, Louisville and Mississippi State. You read that right: UConn is not a top seed for the first time since 2006. But the Huskies are still a No. 2 seed, and they still got a regional nearby, in Albany, New York. The Huskies will host the first two rounds in Storrs, and their fans have packed Albany regionals for years — so they would essentially have home-court advantage until the Final Four. That’s a tough setup for the region’s No. 1 seed, Louisville, and the FiveThirtyEight model reflects that, giving UConn a 68 percent chance and Louisville a 24 percent chance of making the Final Four. But the Cardinals did beat UConn in January, as star guard Asia Durr scored a game-high 24 points. That win should give Louisville confidence as it chases its second straight Final Four appearance.

The selection committee created a similar setup out west, where Mississippi State is the No. 1 seed and Oregon is the No. 2. With each team hosting the first two rounds and the regional rounds being played in Portland, Oregon could make its first Final Four without leaving the state. The model gives the Ducks a 51 percent chance of doing just that behind triple-double queen Sabrina Ionescu, who could be the first pick in the WNBA draft if she declares. Mississippi State, which secured its No. 1 seed after winning its first-ever SEC tournament title, has a 44 percent chance of making the Final Four and a 10 percent chance of winning a national title. The latter would be a storybook ending for the national runners-up in each of the past two seasons.

The Greensboro, North Carolina, region is a hotbed of low-post talent, starting with the No. 1 overall seed in Baylor. The Lady Bears have had a dominant season to date, running their record to 31-1 and leading the nation in blocked shots, defensive rebounds and opponent field-goal percentage. The 6-foot-7 Kalani Brown and 6-foot-4 Lauren Cox have combined to average more than 28 points, 16 rebounds and 4 blocks per game. Not to be outdone, No. 2 seed Iowa has espnW’s national player of the year in 6-foot-3 Megan Gustafson. According to Her Hoop Stats, Gustafson is both the nation’s top scorer, putting up 28.0 points per game, and the nation’s most efficient scorer, recording 1.44 points per scoring attempt and shooting just under 70 percent from the field. There are several low-post standouts among the lower-seeded teams as well, but Baylor projects to be the best in Greensboro, with a 76 percent chance of making the Final Four.

Although Baylor is the No. 1 overall seed, it’s the top seed in the Chicago region, Notre Dame, that has the best chance of winning a national championship. The FiveThirtyEight model gives the defending champs a 30 percent chance of repeating and Baylor a 28 percent chance at its first title since 2012. The Fighting Irish returned all but one starter from last year’s team and then led the country in points per game while playing the nation’s toughest schedule. Notre Dame’s chief competition in Chicago will likely be No. 2 seed Stanford, the Pac-12 tournament champions and the only team to beat Baylor this season. Under head coach Tara VanDerveer, the Cardinal have a 56 percent chance to make the Elite Eight but just an 8 percent chance to advance to the Final Four.

Sleepers

A pair of 4-seeds could knock off some of the favorites in the Sweet 16. In Albany, Oregon State has a 21 percent chance of making the Elite Eight, potentially displacing Louisville, while South Carolina has a 10 percent chance of doing the same to Baylor in Greensboro. Oregon State finished third in what was perhaps the nation’s deepest conference, the Pac-12, and ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point shooting at 38.8 percent. If the Beavers, particularly star guard Destiny Slocum, get hot from deep, they could extend their stay on the East Coast to the Final Four. Under head coach and former Virginia point guard Dawn Staley, South Carolina also has electric guard play, which could set up a fascinating game of contrasts against Baylor in the Sweet 16. Don’t count Staley out as she chases her second national championship in the past three seasons.

Also in the Greensboro region, No. 3 North Carolina State has received relatively little attention compared with ACC rivals Louisville and Notre Dame despite starting the season 21-0. (NC State didn’t lose a game until February!) The Wolfpack would not have to leave their home state to make the Final Four, and the FiveThirtyEight model gives the team almost the same chances as No. 2 seed Iowa of advancing to the Elite Eight (40 percent versus 42 percent).

Busts

It’s perhaps a sign of progress that a mid-major team can even be considered for this category, but Gonzaga, the No. 5 seed in the Albany region, probably won’t see it that way if this prediction proves true. Gonzaga is vulnerable after two players suffered season-ending leg injuries in its conference tournament semifinal. The model still gives the Bulldogs an 87 percent chance of beating Arkansas-Little Rock, but a team that was ranked in the top 25 for parts of this season and had aspirations of hosting the first two rounds as a top-4 seed surely has its sights set higher than one NCAA tournament win.

No. 4 Texas A&M has also had injury concerns, although the school recently announced that leading scorer Chennedy Carter (22.5 points per game) will play in the NCAA tournament. She is returning from a hand injury, though, and if her shot isn’t falling, Texas A&M could struggle with a tough Wright State team that holds opponents to just 36.2 percent shooting, which ranks 24th in the nation.

Speaking of tough mid-major teams, the state of Florida has a couple that will start the NCAA tournament in Miami. No. 5 seed Arizona State can’t be happy about traveling all the way across the country to play No. 12-seed UCF in their backyard, and the Sun Devils have only a 69 percent chance of winning one game and a 26 percent chance of winning two games in the Sunshine State. Meanwhile, host and No. 4 seed Miami has an 82 percent chance of beating No. 13 seed Florida Gulf Coast, but there are signs of a potential upset here. FGCU is ranked only three spots behind Miami in the Her Hoop Stats ratings (the teams rank 28th and 25th, respectively) and is dangerous behind the arc: Nearly half of FGCU’s shot attempts are 3-pointers, which ranks second nationally, while Miami is letting teams score more than one-third of their points from three, which ranks 320th nationally.

Fun first-round matchups

If you’re looking for two senior stars trying to extend their careers, watch No. 8 seed California take on No. 9 seed North Carolina on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time. Kristine Anigwe has had a historic season for the Golden Bears and leads the nation in rebounding with 16.3 per game, including a 32-point, 30-rebound effort against Washington State two weeks ago. North Carolina ranks in the bottom third of teams nationally in rebounding rate, so one might predict a long afternoon for the Tar Heels, but their offensive firepower can keep them in any game. (Just ask Notre Dame and NC State, which both lost to North Carolina in the span of a week earlier this year.) Guard Paris Kea is the star (17.1 points per game), but three other players average double-figure scoring and a fourth averages 9.5 points per game.

FiveThirtyEight model’s prediction: California over North Carolina (64 percent)

If you’re looking for a battle between mid-major powerhouses, don’t miss No. 6 seed South Dakota State versus No. 11 seed Quinnipiac on Saturday at 11 a.m. Eastern time. Both teams have been to the tournament before: SDSU won its ninth automatic bid in 11 years this season, while QU is in for the fifth time in seven seasons and made a Sweet 16 appearance in 2017. SDSU boasts the Summit League’s all-time leading scorer in Macy Miller, who is averaging 18.1 points per game this season while shooting nearly 55 percent from the floor. But Quinnipiac could make things tough for Miller and the Jackrabbits: The Bobcats hold opponents to just 50.5 points per game, second-best in the nation, and their 11.5 steals per game rank sixth nationally. Whichever way this game goes, the winner could be a sleeper pick to knock off No. 3 Syracuse and make the Sweet 16.

FiveThirtyEight model’s prediction: South Dakota State over Quinnipiac (65 percent)

Finally, if you’re looking for toss-ups, the three games that our model gives the most even odds are:

No. 10 Buffalo vs. No. 7 Rutgers, Friday at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time (Buffalo has a 51 percent chance of winning)

No. 10 Auburn vs. No. 7 BYU, Saturday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time (Auburn has a 55 percent chance of winning)

No. 6 UCLA vs. No. 11 Tennessee, Saturday at 1 p.m. Eastern time (UCLA has a 56 percent chance of winning)

Check out our latest March Madness predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/your-guide-to-the-2019-ncaa-womens-tournament/

[junker-town]

Tony Bennett’s system is all Virginia needs to be an annual contender

The Cavaliers are rolling once again this year even after losing four-year starter Malcolm Brogdon. For the Cavaliers, it all comes back to the system.

The Virginia Cavaliers are in the midst of a fourth straight season as one of college basketball’s top teams. It feels strange now, but for a long stretch, the Hoos were not this sort of program. From 2001-02 through 2012-13, Virginia never appeared in the final AP Poll and only made the NCAA tournament twice.

The change, of course, was the arrival of head coach Tony Bennett.

Interchangeable parts

Following a two-year stint at Washington State, Bennett came to Charlottesville in 2009. His initial teams weren’t great, but they laid the groundwork for his system. It was the same one that guided Wazzu to its only two tourney bids in the last 23 years: Stingy pack-line defense, efficient scoring, and mistake-free basketball.

Bennett didn’t win pretty with the Cougars, and he hasn’t with Virginia, either. But he has won — quite a bit, actually. He’s 252-111 in just his 11th year as a head coach. Since the start of 2013-14, he’s 107-25.

The keys to the system have been interchangeable parts and a four-year plan.

From Joe Harris to Justin Anderson, Malcolm Brogdon and now London Perrantes, the Hoos have utilized smart shooters and strong defenders to grind teams down and dictate their style of play. No matter the pieces in play, it’s been about consistency — and of course, efficiency.

This season, UVA is KenPom’s third-most efficient defense and 13th-most efficient offense. Last year they were No. 8 offensively and No. 7 defensively. In 2014-15, No. 22 on offense and No. 2 on defense. Bennett’s teams have proven that this is not only successful, but entirely replicable with the right players.

Based on longevity alone, Brogdon was probably the poster child for what this program does on both ends under Bennett. He averaged nearly a steal per game over four years, shot 47 percent from two and improved his three-point percentage each year.

But Perrantes, who’s a bit more dangerous from three (42 percent on his career), is still writing the end of his story at Virginia. Unlike Brogdon, who’s now a rising NBA talent, Perrantes has a chance to end things in the Final Four, or even win a national title.

But like previous UVA teams, that’s entirely reliant on dictating the proceedings.

You can’t beat Virginia playing their game

Virginia is 3-6 in games where opponents score more than 60 points this year, including Sunday’s 80-78 overtime loss to Virginia Tech. They’re 77-3 under Bennett with a 10-point halftime lead, but all three losses have come in the past 11 months. Syracuse did it twice (including last year’s Elite 8), and the Hokies just added their name to the list, as well.

What the teams that have beaten Virginia learned is there’s no winning if you play at their pace. The Hoos are 350th (out of 351 teams) in terms of possessions per 40 minutes, with just 60. Having so few scoring chances can be a problem if a team struggles to score or struggles to stop opponents. Virginia rarely has those problems. But when they do — especially the latter issue — they’re almost guaranteed to fail.

For Syracuse, they used the press to rattle Virginia and cause uncharacteristic turnovers, but it took fearless and accurate shooting to quickly close the gap. Virginia Tech didn’t use the press, but they did start dictating their own offensive pace in the second half, and the points eventually followed.

Still, that oversimplifies it.

This year’s UVA defense is even better than last year’s, in terms of holding opponent point totals down. The 2015-16 team allowed 60 or more points 19 different times, and they went 11-8 in those games. Virginia’s forcing far more turnovers this year — 21.3 opponent turnover percentage (39th) vs. 18.8 (129th) in 2015-16. Opponents are also shooting much worse from the field this year vs. last year.

Even the most efficient offenses have struggled mightily this year. In eight games against top-30, Virginia’s 4-4, but holding those teams to 59.6 points per game. Duke will be the ninth top-30 offense to face the Hoos when the two teams tip off on Wednesday. The Blue Devils average nearly 82 points per game.

The two teams certainly represent different sides of the college basketball style spectrum, but not different levels of title contention this year. Both are 8-4 in league play, and this week’s winner will have a big leg up toward earning a double-bye in the upcoming ACC tournament. Duke and Virginia were also among the NCAA tournament committee’s top 16 teams in Saturday’s bracket preview.

Bennett’s team and its defense were just minutes away from the Final Four last season. If they can continue to impose themselves on opponents this year, perhaps they finally take that next step this March.