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casualenemykid-blog · 5 years ago

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Before the Los Angeles Lakers

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thrashermaxey · 6 years ago

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Ramblings: Updates on Klefbom, White, Karlsson; Koskinen Extended; Hronek – January 22

The Carolina Hurricanes have started to lock up their core and the next addition to the list is Teuvo Teravainen. He signed a five-year deal with an average annual value of $5.4-million and it doesn’t appear to include movement/trade protections.

Teravainen has really flourished in Carolina to the tune of 145 points in 211 games, or a 56-point pace per 82 games. It helps playing alongside Sebastian Aho, but Turbo has really found his game with the Hurricanes.

Just as an aside to the contract, I do wonder where Teravainen fits in long term. It seems like the team will move forward with Teravainen, Nino Niederreiter, Andrei Svechnikov, and Micheal Ferland (I’m assuming they sign him) in their top-6. But this precludes re-signing Justin Williams after the season, or possibly bringing in another top winger in free agency this summer (there are a lot of them). And there are always the swirling ‘defenceman for a scoring winger’ rumours surrounding the ‘Canes every year.

I say all this because there’s good evidence that Teravainen is a better defensive forward than he is an offensive one. It’s not to say he’s devoid of offensive talent; I mentioned above he’s played as a 55-plus-point guy since getting to Carolina. But maybe he slides down to the third line once this team is really loaded, filling in the role currently occupied by Williams? A reliable two-way forward who they can use all over the lineup, including special teams. It’s to say that I’m not entirely convinced he’ll be the long-term winger for Aho.

But that’s a year or two down the road. In all, it’s a good contract for the team and gives Teravainen security, and the chance for another multi-year contract when this new one runs out.

Just a fun Teravainen fact: since the start of the 2016-17 season, he has the same assists/60 minutes at 5v4 as Patrick Kane.

It appears Erik Karlsson will not return for the Sharks until after the All-Star Game, which would also include him not playing in the midseason classic itself. It makes sense from San Jose’s perspective; this is a true Cup contender and there is a pretty big gap between the Big Three in the Pacific and the rest of the division. They need him healthy in April, not January.

If you haven’t picked up your copy of the 2019 Dobber Hockey Midseason Fantasy Guide from our Dobber Shop, there’s no time like the present! We only have a couple days of hockey before the break, and that’s the best time to digest all the information necessary to make a run for a league title this year, or set your keeper/dynasty teams up for the future.

It looks like Oscar Klefbom will return for the Oilers after the All-Star break. This is huge for the Oilers if they truly want to make a run for the playoffs as he’s easily their best defenceman and the team has looked near-dead since his injury. Good news, fantasy owners!

Speaking of the Oilers, they have put both Ty Rattie and Ryan Spooner on waivers. I’ll admit, I got sucked into Rattie’s performance alongside Connor McDavid at the end of last year and in the preseason. I didn’t end up drafting him anywhere, but I have used him a lot in DFS. It, uh, hasn’t gone well. Maybe these guys can catch on elsewhere.

Thus concludes the Jordan Eberle trade tree. Outcome: not great!

The last bit on the Oilers: they signed goaltender Mikko Koskinen for three more years with an AAV of $4.5-million. That seems like a pretty big gamble on a 30-year old goalie (31 next season) with 31 career NHL games. Not to mention the team needs to completely overhaul their winger depth from top to bottom, needs another top-4 defenceman, and already has $73-million committed to next season. This should be a team looking to spend as little as possible in goal to try and upgrade elsewhere and this… this is not it.

The Blue Jackets have added Martin St. Louis as a special teams consultant. Presumably, this means he’s helping the team with their power play. As Aaron Portzline noted, the Columbus power play has been absolutely abysmal for two years, ranking last in the league since January of 2017. Special teams aren’t everything, but teams that score on fewer than 1 in 6 power play opportunities are going to struggle to win games, especially at a rate of a Cup contender.

Calgary has some new lines, aside from leaving the top line together:

#Flames at practice today:

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm Frolik-Backlund-Neal Tkachuk-Jankowski-Bennett Mangiapane-Ryan-Hathaway

Giordano-Brodie Hanifin-Hamonic Kylington-Andersson

Czarnik, Valimaki, and Prout extras.

— Pat Steinberg (@Fan960Steinberg) January 21, 2019

It’ll be interesting to see for just how long this configuration lasts. It seems like breaking up the second line, which has been one of the best in hockey for a few years now, isn’t a long-term move, more something to get some balance right now.

On the topic of lines and news, Mike Babcock has broken up the duo of John Tavares and Mitch Marner:

#Leafs at practice: Marleau-Matthews-Marner Hyman-Tavares-Kapanen Brown-Kadri-Nylander Lindholm-Gauthier-Holl

Rielly-Hainsey Dermott-Zaitsev Marincin-Ozhiganov

Andersen Sparks

No Gardiner (back spasms), Johnsson (concussion).

— Terry Koshan (@koshtorontosun) January 21, 2019

The Leafs haven’t looked like themselves for a little while now, though it seems much of the issue is a shooting percentage drop on the power play and the injury to Frederik Andersen. Like the Flames, we’ll see how long this actually lasts. I’m skeptical it’ll be for very long.

On the Ottawa front, Sens forward Colin White says he should be back in the Ottawa lineup after the All-Star Game. He had been playing very well on a line with Brady Tkachuk and Mark Stone. I’d like to see him get another chance there.

Drew Doughty scored in Monday afternoon’s 4-3 win over St. Louis, his fifth goal of the season. It’s been a tough season for almost every Los Angeles Kings player, but Doughty is averaging over two hits a game for the first time in years and is on pace for 46 points. Other areas have sagged (plus/minus and shots, notably), but there’s still been enough here to maintain solid fantasy relevance. That feels like an amazing statement given Doughty’s fantasy performances in his career, but it’s more a testament to the team than to himself as a player.

Mackenzie MacEachern scored his first NHL goal in the loss. You can read his Dobber profile here.

The Nashville Predators got scoring from the blue line in the form of Roman Josi’s eighth goal and Ryan Ellis’s fifth en route to a 4-1 win over Colorado. That makes 36 points for Josi, who is now on pace for 58 on the year. He’s doing that despite having just nine PPPs. It’d be fun to see what he could do in a season with heavy minutes on a top-tier PP unit.

Pekka Rinne stopped 35 of 36 shots in the victory for Nashville.

Both Max Pacioretty and Alex Tuch scored in Las Vegas’s 4-2 loss to Minnesota on Monday. Despite the team loss, the second line for Vegas shone once again. This trio has been truly elite in their time together. When Reilly Smith returns, it’s going to be a big decision for the coaching staff as to whether or not they put Pirri on the second or third line. With the way Stastny-Tuch-Pacioretty are rolling, and how good the top line normally is, I don’t know how either of those two trios get split.

Florida received goals from each of Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle, and Michael Matheson, and Frank Vatrano had a four-point night as the Panthers toppled the Sharks 6-2. Vatrano now has 21 goals and 34 points in 63 career games with the Panthers. He’s doing that while averaging about 14 minutes a night.

For Ekblad, it was his 10th goal of the season. That gives him double-digit goals in every season of his career so far, and 63 goals overall. The lack of assists are an ongoing concern but the goal scoring is about as consistent as it gets from the blue line.

Aleksander Barkov had three assists, snapping a four-game pointless streak. He’s also just shy of a point per game with 47 in 48.

I wanted to get some input from the Dobber community. I have a home keeper league (10-team, keep 8) where I made a somewhat-blockbuster trade recently. Let me give you the specifics of the league first:

Points league, categories for skaters are: goals, assists, PIMs, plus/minus, SOG, PP points.

The pool of players I’m considering for keepers for next year include: Vladimir Tarasenko, Mark Scheifele, Nathan MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl, Alexander Radulov, Evgenii Dadonov, Viktor Arvidsson, Brent Burns, Kris Letang, John Gibson, and Thatcher Demko. Remember, it’s only a keep-8, so three players from that list would miss the cut.

We don’t divide forward positions, they’re all listed as ‘forward’ so positions are irrelevant.

There are four people at the top of the league standings clustered very close together, me being one of them, and then there’s a big gap to 5th place. I think I have an edge because of fewer games played than the other three teams. In that sense, yes I’m going for it this year.

Last week, I completed the following trade:

I received: Andrei Svechnikov and Mika Zibanejad

I sent: William Nylander and Nico Hischier

My reasoning was that with the uncertainty around Taylor Hall, I think Zibanejad will out-produce Hischier the rest of the season in our format. Also, I am in the running for a league title without Nylander having done anything basically all year. I wouldn’t be keeping Hischier and it’s doubtful I’d keep Nylander. I won’t keep Zibanejad but as I said I think he’s an upgrade for the next 30 games on Hischier. I will definitely be keeping Svechnikov. He’s a guy I peg to be an absolute superstar in this league in a couple years.

I look at it as an upgrade on one guy for this year, and the other is a lock as a keeper for many seasons to come. What do you guys think?

Last week I took a bit of a dive on Will Butcher to see how he’s performing this season, so far in his career, and what it could mean for the future. In those Ramblings, I also discussed other young defencemen like Thomas Chabot and Henri Jokiharju. There is another young defenceman I want to discuss briefly and that’s Detroit blue liner Filip Hronek.

As I’ve stated before, I’m not a prospects writer. I leave that stuff to the good people over at Dobber Prospects. I mostly form my opinion based on their writing, the writing of some other people around the industry, and my own brief observations. All this is to say that going into the 2018-19 season, I knew who Hronek was but didn’t know much about him. I knew he had a good age-20 season in the AHL, I knew he might push for an end-of-roster spot on the Wings, and that’s about it.

He’s opened a lot of eyes, including both of mine, since.

Hronek has only played 22 games, so it should be said we’re not working with a lot of information. That said, here’s where he ranks in various categories among Red Wings rear guards:

Adjusted 5v5 shot share percentage: 1st

Adjusted 5v5 on-ice shots for: 1st

Individual 5v5 expected goals: T-1st

Penalties drawn per 60 minutes: 1st

That’s, uh, pretty good.

Other metrics aren’t as flattering (he’s about break-even in expected goal share) but for just 22 games on a lottery team, he’s standing out.

It might take a year or two once all those awful contracts on the Red Wings blue line start running out before guys like Hronek and Dennis Cholowski can really take over. With that said, I’ve been impressed with Hronek and look forward to what he can do in the future. He’s had a good start, now it’s about building off that and taking the next step.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-updates-on-klefbom-white-karlsson-koskinen-extended-hronek-january-22/

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flauntpage · 6 years ago

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Wild Card Weekend: A Look at Chicago’s Offense

Let’s get it back to the Eagles.

We’ve got a playoff game to talk about, and it looks good on paper.

This is a Chicago team that hasn’t been to the postseason in eight years. The quarterback has never played in a playoff game and Matt Nagy is a first-year head coach who is entering relatively unfamiliar territory, at least in his current role. The Bears play host to an experienced and battle-tested Philly team on a three-game winning streak that thrives in the underdog role. All of the intangible stuff surrounding this game seems to favor the Eagles, who should feel little to no pressure on Sunday afternoon.

But they don’t play the games on paper, so here’s a short scoop on the Chicago offense.

Numbers

I like to start it off with a general overview of how the opponent performed statistically.

Here are Da Bears regular season marks:

21st in total offense (343 yards per game)

21st in passing offense (222 YPG)

11th in rushing offense (121 YPG)

9th in points per game (23)

11th in 3rd down conversion rate (41%)

11th in 4th down conversion rate (60% on a 9-15 mark)

8th best in penalties committed (just 97 total, six per game)

16th in first downs (331 total, 20.6 per game)

27th in rush yards per attempt (4.1)

tied for 7th in rushing touchdowns (16)

12th in passing touchdowns (28)

14 interceptions thrown (12th most in NFL)

9 fumbles lost (4th most)

36 takeaways (#1), 24 giveaways (#8) for a +12 turnover margin

average time of possession 31:59 (3rd, just behind Eagles)

Those are their league-wide totals. You see they aren’t an amazing passing team, but they do a really nice job of controlling the clock and moving the chains with a rushing offense that finished just outside of the top-ten. They really are similar to the Eagles in the way they limit penalties and win in auxiliary areas of the game, though that positive turnover margin is much more about their defense and not their offense. They’ve coughed the ball up rather frequently this season.

Here are their individual numbers on the season, after the jump:

Nothing amazing from Trubisky in the passing game. He was middle of the road in just about every single category this year.

Howard had a nice season running the ball, but that 3.7 yards per attempt number was very low for a 1st choice RB, ranked all the way down at 39th in the NFL next to guys like Peyton Barber and Alfred Morris. Tarik Cohen fared better in that category, but you may recall the Eagles absolutely demolished Chicago in the running game last season, holding the duo to nine carries for -5 yards. It was an absurd performance by the defensive line, and Trubisky, who does a lot of good things with his feet, only carried it four times for 12 yards at Lincoln Financial Field as a rookie.

He’s not Lamar Jackson, but he did finish sixth in rushing yards among NFL quarterbacks this season, which is a key to their success in moving the chains.

Here are the receiver stats:

The receiving corps is solid but nothing to write home about. There’s nobody out there who really makes you say, “oh shit, who’s gonna cover that guy?” There’s no fantasy football stud. Gabriel was an Atlanta castoff who can stretch the field a bit. Allen Robinson did a decent job this season coming off a 2017 ACL tear. Trey Burton had some nice moments as well, but what Chicago does best in the passing game is kill teams out of the backfield with Cohen, who does a lot of moving around in various formations.

It’s on the Eagles defense to limit him and limit Howard and force Trubisky to pass his way to victory. Both teams are pretty similar in the way they control the clock and limit opponents via stout run defense, so I think if the Eagles put the game on Trubisky’s shoulders, then they’re going to be in good shape.

Clips and quotes and stuff

By know you know that Nagy comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree. He spent a brief amount of time in Philadelphia as an intern, assistant, and then a quality control guy on the offensive side of the ball. He followed Andy to Kansas City and he incorporates some of those concepts into what Chicago does now.

Jim Schwartz was asked about that this week, the idea that the Bears do some similar things in the offensive game:

“It’s different when it comes to what his players are, all the different things that are going on in the NFL. I think that’s a sign of good coaching. I think that’s probably No. 1. But I do think that even though you’re seeing a completely different scheme, you’re seeing some core things — I don’t know another way to put it.

Still efficient running the ball, and a short passing game was still very important to them. I think those things carry over. They might do it a completely different way. Nobody was running zone read in 1999 (Andy Reid’s first year). Everybody was running true west coast things, but the principles of run the ball still, control the game with the run, they do a very good job of that.

High percentage passing game. Might look a little bit different, but there are different ways that they do it.”

And then a follow-up question about Andy always having a smaller guy, a scat back or good pass-catching tailback like Brian Westbrook or Tyreek Hill, guys who are similar to Tarik Cohen:

Schwartz:

“I don’t know that he was using them as wide receivers back then. But, yeah, for sure. It’s just a different way to do a lot of the same things. No matter how far you go to all the different ways offenses are working right now, running the ball still works. Running the ball is still important. Short passing game, high percentage, keeping the sticks moving, is still important. Making big plays, still important. Mobility of a quarterback, still important.

All these things carry over. It’s packaged up a little different, it looks a little bit different, but those core principles stay the same.”

A couple of clips chained together here to show those concepts –

In the first play, you’ll see some pre-snap motion to get Cohen free in the flat. In the second play, they get some lost yards back with a short completion to Howard. On the third play, Trubisky moves the chains with his feet:

LA does a really nice job on those first two plays, but you see how Trubisky has a good feel for when to step up in the pocket and just take off running. He’s got a good internal clock, a good sense of when pressure is coming.

Here’s Schwartz on Trubisky’s running ability:

First of all, it’s part of the run game, so I think that’s the No. 1 part. He’s certainly capable of pulling the ball and running for yards and first downs and things like that. It just adds another dynamic to the passing game.

We’ve seen it from so many different quarterbacks. If it’s not there, he can create and start a new play. He can also make a big play down the field. I think we saw that a little bit from him last year. I know in that game we were having a really good run defense game in that game, and he had a scramble late in that game that sort of took them out of the negative yards.

So we saw him move around a bunch. That’s part of what they do, and it’s been working for them. We’re going to have to do a good job keeping him contained, reading our keys, making sure we’re playing responsibility when it comes to the zone read and the RPOs and those things because if you don’t, he’s a guy that can make you look bad.

There are also a lot of instances where Trubisky is willing to throw short and take what the defense gives him.

On a play like this, they’ll run just a little bit of pre-snap motion, pull Cohen in, then roll him back out on a short route. Richard Sherman is willing to give up the underneath yards to prevent a deep toss instead:

That’s not dissimilar from the wheel route or that little out that the Eagles use successfully with Darren Sproles. In this case, San Francisco was willing to concede the short pass on 2nd and 4.

Schwartz with more on Chicago’s penchant for moving guys around at the line of scrimmage:

People use motion a lot of different ways. They use motion to ID defenses. They use motion to put stress on defenses from like having to cover a guy when he’s running as fast as he can away from you. They use those kind of motions to make you have to communicate, make guys have to change responsibilities across the way.

….

It’s nothing we haven’t seen from half a dozen teams this year. They’re not doing anything unique. They just have really good players doing it and they do a nice job in their scheme of putting you in positions that you have to communicate, and you also have to watch your keys. You can’t get distracted by other things.

More or less.

Chicago has a different coaching staff this year, so even though a lot of the personnel is similar, the scheme is not, and you weren’t getting as much of the Kansas City and LA Rams influence when the Bears played at Lincoln Financial Field in 2017. Schwartz described their offense as a “melting pot” and referred to Trubisky as a “point guard” type of quarterback who successfully navigates zone reads, various RPO looks, and those quick slants and hitches and speed-outs. You’ll also see jet sweeps and end-arounds from guys like Gabriel and rookie Anthony Miller, who leads the team with 7 receiving touchdowns but dislocated his left shoulder in week 17 and will not be 100% healthy if he’s on the field Sunday. Gabriel is also dealing with bruised ribs.

That’s about it. Chicago’s overall success this season can be credited to their incredibly stout defense, but the offense does some nice things and has a couple of tricky playmakers that need to be accounted for.

The Eagles win if they:

stuff Jordan Howard in the run game

limit third down scrambles and chunk yardage ground pickups for Trubisky

keep Cohen in front of them, communicate, and stay disciplined with pre-snap motion and some quirky receiver-involved plays

Mitch Trubisky is a second-year quarterback heading into his first playoff game. I don’t think he wins the game if he’s forced to throw his way to victory, so the game plan here should be relatively straightforward. This should be a very low-scoring game, maybe 13-10 or 17-14, something in that range.

The post Wild Card Weekend: A Look at Chicago’s Offense appeared first on Crossing Broad.

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