#and his roster while it may have one key player out still has considerably more depth than montreal's during the playoffs

[the-physicality]

what i would like to know is what is the cutoff for "top-heavy" because laroque and fast were on the ice for roughly 41% of the night tonight, and will troy ryan be critiqued in the same way?

[nflfanpointii]

A return to health by these players may make Saints unstoppable

The return of these players from injury might doom the rest of the N.F.C.

Injuries are the great equalizer in all of sports. The wrong injury to the right star may bring a championship contender tumbling down to the bottom of the pack. No team is exempt from this rule of fate. Two keys to success are hoping that your team has good depth when the injury bug does bite, and that the biggest stars stay healthy. The New Orleans Saints possess one of the deeper rosters in the National Football League, but like all teams they are affected by injury during the year. The Saints made it to the NFC title game last season on the strength of their depth and star power. They may have an even more complete roster this year, with the return of a number of players who missed significant portions of the 2018 season.

Patrick Robinson, cornerback

The 31-yr. old Robinson was a first round draft choice of New Orleans in 2010 out of Florida State, the 32nd overall selection. Robinson had a mixed career of ups and downs during five years with the Saints that included 9 interceptions, until departing as a free agent after the 2014 season. After bouncing from the Chargers to the Colts in two seasons after his departure, Robinson landed with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2017, where he was a integral part of their defensive secondary on the way to a Super Bowl championship. Robinson had rounded into one of the better slot corners in the league while with Philadelphia, a spot he was expected to fortify when rejoining the Saints. Unfortunately, Robinson suffered a broken ankle in a week three win at Atlanta, an ailment that landed him on injured reserve and ended his 2018 season, while New Orleans often struggled with slot receivers. His insertion back in the lineup strengthens a Saints secondary that has a Pro Bowl caliber cornerback in Marshon Lattimore, another capable outside corner in Eli Apple, and experienced safety play from Vonn Bell and Marcus Williams as well as corner P.J Williams. New Orleans also added Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in the draft's 4th round, who is expected to add athleticism at safety and take on a slot coverage role himself. Robinson's experience and athleticism in the slot will give added options and versatility for Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and secondary coach Aaron Glenn, allowing them to square off against the deepest receiving corps in the NFL.

Cameron Meredith, wide receiver

Meredith was a free agent addition last offseason, formerly of the Chicago Bears. The 26-yr. old Meredith was beginning to look like one of the league's top up and coming wideouts in 2016 with the Bears, when he led them with 66 receptions for 888 yards and four scores despite poor quarterback play. He suffered a severe knee injury in the 2017 preseason that forced him to miss that entire season though, and would not be recovered when joining the Saints. Meredith missed most of the '18 preseason, and would only appear in six regular season contests with just 9 catches for 114 yards before being placed on injured reserve by New Orleans. The 6'3 207-lb. Meredith is a physical receiver with good hands and the ability to operate well through the intermediate zones. His ability to revert to his pre-injury form will give quarterback Drew Breesanother big target to go along with Michael Thomas, something that limited the Saints offense often last year. The added production should even help speed the development of second year wideouts Tre'quan Smith and Keith Kirkwood.

Ted Ginn Jr., wide receiver

Ginn was an important part of the Saints offense in 2017, after his free agent signing away from division rival Carolina. The thirteen year veteran is still one of the faster players in the league, and one of the most feared deep threats in the NFL. Ginn got off to a slow start in 2018, then was shelved for twelve games thanks to a knee injury. Although he did return during the final month of the season, most defenses were able to clamp down on the Saints shorter routes without him in the lineup. Ginn still seems to possess much of his trademark speed and deep ball abilities, even at 34 years old. He adds a gamebreaking element to the multifaceted New Orleans offense, and his presence on the field should create room underneath for Thomas, Alvin Kamara, newly signed tight end Jared Cook, and the rest of the Saints weapons.

Sheldon Rankins, defensive tackle

Rankins had a monstrous 2018 season that should have been worthy of All-Pro consideration. The 12th overall selection in the 2016 draft, Rankins dominated offenses at times last year, finishing with 8 sacks, 40 tackles (12 for loss), a forced fumble, and 15 quarterback hits. The 25-yr. old lineman suffered an Achilles injury during the Saints divisional playoff win over Philadelphia though, an injury that will likely keep him out of action until midseason. Rankins' absence from the lineup was a noticeable loss in the Saints NFC Championship game against the Rams, raising some concern about the team's interior defensive line as they enter 2019. New Orleans signed free agent tackles Malcom Brown and Mario Edwards Jr., two former high draft picks, to strengthen the interior, and reportedly are in the running to sign former Buccaneers All-Pro Gerald McCoy. Rankins is one of the defense's top stars though, a player who can wreck an opponent's game plan with interior disruption. His full recovery takes an already deep defensive line that already contains All-Pro Cam Jordan and potential second year star Marcus Davenport on the edges to an elite level. A recipe that might signal disaster to offenses throughout the NFL.

[dustedmagazine]

Sun Ra – Pathways to Unknown Worlds (Modern Harmonic)

The record deal inked between Impulse Records and Sun Ra was always one of strange bedfellows. Ra’s recording strategies were reclusive and secretive to the point that he insisted that enlisted engineers not share methods with outside parties. Impulse was a profit-driven major jazz label with a roster that included iconic figures like John Coltrane, Sonny Rollins, and Keith Jarrett. Still, the arrangement worked for a time, circulating Ra’s music to a much wider audience and supplying the label with the cachet that with from stewarding an outsider artist of the bandleader’s stature. Pathways to Unknown Worlds was part of a projected trilogy recorded in then au courant quadraphonic sound. Neither of the other two albums, Cymbals and Crystal Spears gained circulation in Ra’s lifetime. A fourth, posthumously titled Friendly Love and featuring the same band as Pathways, wasn’t released until the year 2000 on the Evidence label as a bundle with its sibling.

Modern Harmonic’s new reissue has features to recommend it, even to those who have copies of the earlier Evidence release. Foremost is the restoration of an initial five-and-a-half-minutes to the previously edited “Extension Out” and the addition of three tracks including the previously unreleased tone poem “View from a Mountain Top.” Engineer Joe Lizzi also completed a new master from the original four-track session reel. Now as then, Ra would likely have issued an arched brow to all the technical considerations, preferring instead to let the musical chips fall where they may and speak for themselves. Fronting a thirteen-piece Arkestra from a phalanx of keyboard consoles including organ, mini-Moog and electronic vibes, he’s in full control from the opening synthetic pings and echoes of the title piece. Trumpeter Kwame Hadi, abecedarian bass clarinetist Eloe Omoe, and mellophonist Akh Tal Ebah, who apparently achieved a Space Age twist on his instrument by affixing a contrabassoon reed to its mouthpiece, are similar abstractionist in their tangled bursts of targeted sound. 

Stalwart bassist Ronnie Boykins would soon have a serious falling out with his longtime employer, but he’s an essential asset throughout the album, serving as a buoyant harmonic anchor amidst the more chaotic sections and contributing colorfully aggressive solos with frenetic fingers and acerbic bow on the occasions when other players drop away. Conversely, customary first-stringers tenorist John Gilmore and altoists Marshall Allen and Danny Davis adopt uncharacteristically secondary roles. Much of the interplay seesaws instead between Ra’s often riotous keyboard conjurations and the rhythm section further bolstered by Clifford Jarvis’ explosive cans and the percolating peripheral presence of Atakatune’s congas. “Extension Out” features a similar pecking order with Omoe, and Hadi blasting away between more ethereal passages from Ra and Boykins. A sense of celestial menace and ennui pervades and while Ra’s mood is hard to gauge from aural mans alone the music is far from elegiac. 

Two tracks borrowed from the Of Mythic Worlds album originally released on the Philly Jazz imprint in 1980 bring the disc to nearly an hour’s duration. As with most things Ra, provenance is somewhat contentious, but the band appears to be a nine-piece distillation of the Pathways one with later recruits Richard Williams and Luqman Ali in for Boykins and Jarvis respectively. Both “Intrinsic Energies” and the title piece are more optimistic in cast. Ra’s shimmering, reverb-drenched keys rise and recede over shuffling, circular percussive patterns with regenerative rhythms a focus. Gilmore and Allen are restored to positions of prominence. The latter draws a knotty alto elocution over a burrish drone sustained by bassoonist James Jacson and baritonist Danny Ray Thompson while the former earns the spotlight on the second with a passionately mustered tenor extemporization. A winsome amalgam of Ra from both ends of the 1970s, this disc delivers the extra-planetary goods.

Derek Taylor

[undertheinfluencerd]

https://ift.tt/3tgbt1x #

With The Expendables 4 officially greenlit, and with filming set to begin in fall 2021, many players from the initial trilogy could make a return. The gimmick of The Expendables from the beginning was a packed ensemble of action heroes, with the series as a loving throwback to ’80s and ’90s action movies. This meant that each new chapter of The Expendables series brought new members to the roster along with the returning core team.

For The Expendables 4, Jason Statham’s Lee Christmas is said to be the central character, while Sylvester Stallone, Dolph Lundgren, and Randy Couture are also set to return. The newbies for the fourth installment of the series include Megan Fox, 50 Cent, and Thai action movie legend Tony Jaa. Whether the incoming players are joining the team, will appear as antagonists, or anything in between isn’t known, but in any case, the titular “Expendables” are on their way back to cinema screens.

RELATED: The Expendables Spinoff Is Better For Stallone Than A Fourth Movie

With the ensemble gimmick being central to the franchise from the start, it’s a good bet that some of the series’ earlier cast will also return, though Terry Crews has stated he won’t be back as Hale Caesar, and Chuck Norris also made clear that his appearance as Booker in The Expendables 2 was a one-and-done. The Expendables 4, reportedly bearing the working title of A Christmas Story, could even take the form of the leadership passing from Stallone to Statham, while other cast members of the series may drop in for the fun of Barney Ross’ possible last mission. Here are the characters from The Expendables series who could return in The Expendables 4.

Jet Li was part of the original Expendables crew as the Chinese mercenary and martial arts expert Yin Yang. Li was in The Expendables movies progressively less as the series went on, which was probably partially related to health problems Li’s dealt with in recent years stemming from hyperthyroidism, though his condition has reportedly subsided. Li’s primarily focused on philanthropic work these days and only occasionally makes film appearances, such as 2020’s Mulan, but the return of Yin Yang could still happen in The Expendables 4.

An associate and former mercenary in The Expendables, Mickey Rourke hasn’t returned to the series since first playing Tool in the original. Though Tool was planned to return in The Expendables 2, Rourke ultimately backed out of the project. While Tool’s been AWOL from The Expendables since the first one, Rourke could still pop into The Expendables 4 as Tool again.

First appearing in The Expendables as the shadowy CIA string-puller Mr. Church, Bruce Willis took a more active role in The Expendables 2 from his initial cameo, joining the Expendables in the movie’s climactic airport battle. Willis was meant to return for The Expendables 3, but ultimately sat the third installment out, with Harrison Ford’s Max Drummer taking Church’s place in the story. Stallone and Willis have reportedly mended the fence that led to the latter dropping out the third Expendables, so Mr. Church appearing in The Expendables 4 could be on the cards.

The Governator’s been an increasingly key player in The Expendables franchise as Barney Ross’ friendly rival Trench Mauser, similar to his and Stallone’s own one-time rivalry, filming a cameo in The Expendables in 2009 while he was still Governor of California. After leaving office, Arnold Schwarzenegger returned as Trench in a larger role in The Expendables 2, before becoming a significant supporting character in The Expendables 3. Considering how much Trench’s role in the series has grown with each installment, and Schwarzenegger and Stallone working together fairly frequently now, it would hardly be surprising for Arnold to be back in The Expendables 4.

RELATED: Why The Expendables 4 MUST Kill Off A Major Character

An associate of the Expendables who assists the team during their mission in The Expendables 2, Yu Nan’s Maggie Chan was the computer-savvy brains of the team in the mission of the second film. Outside of The Expendables 2, Yu Nan is best-known in the West for the 2015 Chinese action movie, Wolf Warrior, led and directed by Wu Jing and co-starring The Expendables 2 heavy Scott Adkins. Though not an official Expendable, Maggie was a valuable ally to the team in The Expendables 2, so Barney could possibly call her up for more help in The Expendables 4.

Though the Muscle from Brussels turned down the first installment of the series, Jean-Claude Van Damme boarded The Expendables 2 as possibly the villain with the most on-the-nose name in action movie history, Jean Vilain. While Vilain’s defeat and death by decapitation rules him out for The Expendables 4, Van Damme had previously proposed returning as the antagonist’s identical twin brother, Claude Vilain. That could set up quite a legacy conflict in The Expendables 4, akin to Simon Gruber’s Die Hard with a Vengeance vendetta with John McClane over Hans’ death in the original. With Van Damme having put the idea out there, The Expendables 4‘s villain being another Vilain could be quite a pay-off.

The original consideration for the role of Hale Caesar in the first Expendables, Wesley Snipes finally joined the franchise in The Expendables 3 as Doc Death. While Snipes’ stoic Blade persona might’ve seemed like the most expected direction the character would take in a franchise like The Expendables, Doc Death was a true ode to Simon Phoenix of Stallone and Snipes’ 1993 action-comedy Demolition Man. With Doc Death now having rejoined the Expendables by the third film, Snipes returning for The Expendables 4 is another possibility on the table.

Star of the ’90s sitcom Frasier and forever remembered for bringing Sideshow Bob to life on The Simpsons, Kelsey Grammer joined The Expendables 3 as ex-mercenary Bonaparte, who helps Barney Ross assemble the new, younger team of the film. Bonaparte’s role was more in the vein of Church’s in the first film as an outside associate of the Expendables, but with Tony Jaa, 50 Cent, and Megan Fox possibly joining The Expendables 4 as new members of the titular mercenary unit, the movie could feature Barney calling in a favor from Grammer’s Bonaparte that brings the new recruits aboard.

RELATED: Why The Expendables 4 Just Cast Megan Fox & 50 Cent

Once renown as one of the most dominant MMA fighters in the industry, Ronda Rousey has since made the transition to pro-wrestling, but she’s also jumped into a few action movies along the way, including Furious 7 and Mile 22. Rousey’s biggest action movie role date was as the new Expendable Luna in The Expendables 3. By the end of the film, Luna and the other new recruits were officially inducted into the Expendables, so Rousey could possibly return as Luna in The Expendables 4. 

When it came to assembling a new team in The Expendables 3, the energetic Galgo, played by Antonio Banderas, was by far the most eager to sign up, even as Bonaparte dismisses his petitioning to become an Expendable. The former contemporary Zorro was the arguable show-stealer of The Expendables 3, Galgo proclaiming “This is the happiest moment of my life!” in the climactic battle in the greatest show of zeal any Expendable has ever displayed. Now officially a member of the team by the end of the film, Banderas’ Galgo could also return for The Expendables 4 — it’s certainly hard to imagine anyone could talk Galgo into sitting on the bench.

Portraying the team’s CIA contact Max Drummer in The Expendables 3, Harrison Ford’s unique brand of rugged heroism was first seen in his portrayal of Han Solo in the Star Wars trilogy, and set in stone as the fearless archaeologist Indiana Jones in the eponymous adventure franchise. Ford is currently returning to that very role in the in-production Indiana Jones 5. Production on the film had to make some adjustments when Ford sustained an injury early on, and at his age, stunts are a far riskier prospect than before. Still, the tough guy that he is, Ford could bring the gruff Max Drummer back for one more ride in The Expendables 4. 

Best known as Emmett Cullen in the Twilight movies, Kellan Lutz joined The Expendables 3 as one of the new recruits brought aboard by Bonaparte, John Smilee. Lutz has done his share of action movies in his career, including the ancient Greek adventures Immortals and The Legend of Hercules. With John a new Expendables inductee, The Expendables 4 could be on his bingo card too.

RELATED: Every Sylvester Stallone & Antonio Banderas Movie, Ranked

Boarding the team with the rest of the freshman class of The Expendables 3, Glen Powell portrayed the new Expendable, Thorn. Powell will also be seen in another ode to ’80s action in the role of Hangman in Tom Gun: Maverick, itself an assuredly stunt and action-packed blockbuster with the Expendables-worthy Tom Cruise. As a newly knighted Expendable by the conclusion of The Expendables 3, Powell’s Thorn could jump back into action in The Expendables 4 with his fellow mercenaries.

NEXT: Everything We Know About The Expendables 4

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[expatimes]

Super Bowl LV: One for the ages despite COVID, politics

When the Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV in February last year, it was simply another National Football League (NFL) championship triumph, complete with the pomp surrounding one of the world’s most-watched sporting events and the celebratory gatherings across the United States before, during and after the game.

Within weeks, COVID-19 ripped through the country. The pandemic threw big-time American sports into turmoil.

The annual college basketball tournament, known as “March Madness”, was cancelled.

Major professional baseball, basketball and hockey leagues were forced to cancel games and overhaul their procedures.

The NFL aimed to move forward with severely altered protocols, anticipating a full off-season and regular season set to begin in September.

If dealing with the pandemic was not a massive enough crisis for the league, the protests that followed the police killing of George Floyd, a Black man, in May, had an outsized effect on the NFL and its players, 70 percent of whom are Black.

Now, as the Kansas City Chiefs prepare for Sunday’s Super Bowl LV against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, many are marvelling that the season is culminating in two of the best teams facing off when so much could have sent it off the rails.

“Credit goes to the organisations and the players, who came together to stay disciplined” through what could have turned out to be a polarising season marked by subpar play on the field, US sports commentator Jon Meterparel told Al Jazeera.

This Sunday, just 22,000 spectators will be in attendance, about a third of the Tampa stadium’s capacity. The league will provide N95 masks to all attendees.

Top US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci has said he is comfortable with the outdoor gathering “as long as they wear masks and as long as there’s physical distancing”.

The season witnessed labelled bottles, face masks, and many other measures intended to prevent the spread of the coronavirus

Pandemic response

The NFL had just begun its off-season when the coronavirus outbreak began in the US – a distinct advantage it had over other professional sports.

That gave league officials more time to consider how they would proceed and coordinate with the players’ union on a contract tailored to the pandemic.

What they agreed to was an approach that emphasised increasingly strict precautions: Daily testing, restrictions on players’ activities in their free time, and aggressive contract tracing and quarantining.

The league and players’ union eschewed creating a neutral “bubble”, where teams gather and collectively quarantine during the season, an approach taken by the National Basketball Association.

While each team had several players who opted out of the season because of the pandemic, the overall strategy was widely considered a success, with the NFL teaming up with the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to see if the general public can learn from the approach.

A resulting CDC study said elements of the NFL’s strategy in limiting the spread of the coronavirus could be applied “to settings such as long-term care facilities, schools, and high-density environments”.

Allen Sills, NFL’s chief medical officer, said the season showed the league was “able to show that you can play a team sport while minimising risk to the participants”.

That extended to spectators, Sills told reporters on Sunday.

Initially fans could not attend games. By week six, they were gradually allowed into stadiums at reduced capacity.

Signs that urge fans to wear a face mask are seen before an NFL football game in Tampa, Florida last year

Sills said the league had not “traced any outbreaks or cluster of cases to any of the places we have hosted fans”.

Under the league’s strict contact tracing policy, which relied on players using “proximity recording devices”, those who came in close contact with infected individuals were required to quarantine for several days.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said games would not be rescheduled for “competitive considerations”. That meant games would only be moved if there were concerns an outbreak had not been contained, not if key players would have to sit out due to the precautions.

It created some unique scenarios.

The Denver Broncos were forced to field practice squad wide receiver, Kendall Hinton, playing quarterback – a crucial offensive position – after their entire quarterback roster was made ineligible due to coronavirus precautions.

He fared poorly, completing only one pass and throwing two interceptions in nine attempts.

New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) sacks Denver Broncos quarterback Kendall Hinton (2), on November 29, 2020, in Denver, Colorado

Another unlikely circumstance came during the playoffs when the Cleveland Browns took on the Pittsburgh Steelers with their head coach Kevin Stefanski watching from home.

“You really have to double down on the protocols and trust the protocols and make sure that everybody’s safety is priority number one,” Stefanski told The Washington Post in January.

Social justice protest

In 2016, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick began kneeling during the US national anthem, protesting racial injustice.

The silent act kicked off a firestorm of criticism, fuelled largely by former President Donald Trump, who called for kneeling players to be fired.

NFL Commissioner Goodell, at the time, suggested Kaepernick’s actions, which were replicated at venues across the world, showed a lack of patriotism. The star quarterback was later forced out of the league.

In 2020, as racial protests swept the country following the police killing of Floyd, players spoke out.

Several players released a video in June calling on the league to “condemn racism and a systemic oppression of Black people … admit wrong in silencing our players from peacefully protesting”.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson warms up before an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park, New York

“We must have the answer today, and we will work with players, staff and more to arrive at a timely response,” Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shahid Khan, a Pakistani immigrant, said in a statement.

This time, the NFL’s response was starkly different. Goodell swiftly released a video saying the league was “wrong for not listening to NFL players earlier and encourage all to speak out and peacefully protest”.

“We are listening, I am listening,” said Goodell.

The first week of games in 2020 was defined by end zones emblazoned with the phrases “End Racism” and “It Takes All of Us”; league-sanctioned moments of silence for racial inequality; the playing of the Black national anthem “Raise every voice and sing” at games; and players allowed to wear the names of victims of police brutality on their helmets.

New England Patriots linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley wears a decal on his helmet paying tribute to Breonna Taylor, who was killed by police in Louisville, Kentucky, in March

The NFL, through its Inspire Change programme, has also pledged $250m over 10 years for social justice initiatives.

Kenneth Shropshire, a professor of Global Sport and the CEO of the Global Sport Institute at Arizona State University, told Al Jazeera the league’s shift was a perfect storm: The striking video of Floyd’s death, the pandemic pause in sports giving NFL brass “more time to contemplate”, and less antagonism from Trump.

“The Kaepernick moment was one where the league was let’s shut this down. We don’t need this. The theme of the day was this is distraction from playing,” said Shropshire.

“And to the credit of players like Eric Reid and Kenny Stills, they persisted, even with the potential wrath of being someone who is never signed again, like Kaepernick,” he said.

San Francisco 49ers safety Eric Reid (35) and quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) kneel during the national anthem before an NFL football game in September 2016

Shropshire also noted that the initiative “coincided with one of the worst hiring seasons for African American coaches”, with only one Black coach hired among seven openings the past several weeks, despite “outstanding candidates”.

Kaepernick has called the NFL initiatives “propaganda” and a disingenuous attempt to seize on the cultural zeitgeist, while accusing the league of “blackballing” Reid, who went unsigned in 2020.

‘One of the great matchups’

As an unquestionably unique season reaches its culmination on Sunday, sports commentators are certain American football fans will witness history.

On the field, the game pits the oldest – and arguably the greatest – quarterback to start a Super Bowl: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 43-year-old Tom Brady, who won a record six championships with the New England Patriots.

Up against him is a young superstar quarterback, the Kansas City Chiefs’ 25-year-old Patrick Mahomes, who won his first Super Bowl last year.

Tony Romo, who will be announcing the game for US broadcaster CBS, told USA Today this is “one of the great matchups in sports history”.

Given the past year’s challenges, “the fact that the NFL completed another successful season is nothing short of fantastic,” said US sports commentator Jon Meterparel.

Read full article: https://expatimes.com/?p=17713&feed_id=32159

[pucks-deep]

2020 Stanley Cup Playoff Preview

Playoff hockey is finally upon us, and it’s returning in a big way with an all-new 24 team format. Here are my series predictions:

(5) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (12) Montreal Canadiens

This series is one of the more intriguing in the play-in round, despite being one of the most lopsided on paper. The Canadiens simply cannot match the high-end talent of the Penguins roster, which will be boosted by a healthy Jake Guentzel. The Canadiens must slow down the Penguins top players and grind them down over the course of the series, much like the Islanders did when they swept the Penguins last spring. The biggest X-factor of the series is goalie Carey Price, as he has the ability to steal high pressure games. Having Max Domi in the lineup would also greatly benefit the Habs.

Prediction: Penguins in four

(6) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (11) New York Rangers

This could be one of the more tightly contested match-ups in the play-in round, as neither club holds the distinct edge. Starting with offence, the Rangers have plenty of it, spearheaded by MVP nominee Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad. The back end is also very involved, featuring rookie Adam Fox. The Hurricanes take more of a scoring by committee approach, as the offence is well spread through the lines, although this isn’t to discount the threat of their top line of Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov. When taking a look on defence, this is where the Hurricanes pull ahead of the Rangers. The Hurricanes back end is the deepest in the entire east, even after parting with Justin Faulk. They are a tough group that doesn’t give an inch to opponents. The Rangers, on the other hand, aren’t nearly as defensively sound, but they are effective puck movers that can contribute offensively. Goaltending is an interesting question for the Rangers, as they have the choice of putting longtime goalie Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes, or hand the crease over to newcomer Igor Shesterkin, who posted vastly superior numbers over a short span. In Carolina, Petr Mrazek is the man, and the Canes are hoping Mrazek can shake off his mediocre season and return to his 2019 playoff form, where his play helped the Canes to a Conference Final berth. Overall, the edge has to go to Carolina, as they have the fresh experience of last postseason, while the Rangers are new to the game with a relatively young team.

Prediction: Hurricanes in five

(7) New York Islanders vs. (10) Florida Panthers

The Islanders meet the Panthers in what might be the least regarded series of the playoffs. This may be attributed to the general consensus that the Islanders aren’t a very exciting team to watch. They are a defence-first club that doesn’t score many goals and doesn’t feature any game breakers other than Matthew Barzal and even he has experienced a decline in points due to the style of play under coach Barry Trotz. However, this is a team that is very tough to play against, especially in playoff hockey, capable of shutting down star-studded teams (see 2019 Pittsburgh Penguins). Thus, it will be interesting to see if the Panthers array of offensive weapons can penetrate the Islanders armour, as well as the stellar combo of Thomas Greiss and Semyon Varlamov. Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov have yet to prove their playoff mettle, so it will be challenging facing the Islanders shutdown style. The Panthers do hold a secret trick up their sleeve in Sergei Bobrovsky, who will likely dictate the direction this Panthers team goes in this series. As he has shown last year, he can go lights out and when he does, he is the best goaltender in the world. Unfortunately, this hasn’t been the case for the majority of the past season. Bobrovsky holds the keys to the Panthers fortunes. 

Prediction: Islanders in four

(8) Toronto Maple Leafs vs. (9) Columbus Blue Jackets

Explosive offence meets shut-down defence. This has been the common narrative being written for this series between the Leafs and Jackets. Will the Leafs young guns overwhelm the Jackets, or will the disciplined Columbus defence stymie the Leafs? The Leafs have the better team on paper, possessing elite scoring power. The firepower of their top six is unmatched league-wide. Obviously, their struggles are on the back-end where they are famous for making plenty of mistakes in front of Frederik Andersen, who endured his worst season as a Leaf. He has to return much better than he was, especially if the Leafs defence isn’t any better. The Leafs must fully commit to the game and play cohesive team hockey, matching their skill with will. This is the Blue Jackets bread and butter, as they make up for their offensive shortcomings by rarely making mistakes and capitalising on other teams mistakes, a perfect style to play against the Leafs. The Leafs must adopt some of the grit and determination from the Jackets if they are to survive. Another strength for the Jackets is in the crease, where Joonas Korpisalo and rookie Elvis Merzlikins have come together to form one of the most unlikely success stories of the year. Columbus can feel confident in these two options, and the upside of Merzlikins is huge, as he can get very hot. With the right attitude and tweaks to their defensive game, the Leafs should overpower the Jackets, but keep in mind what happened last spring with Columbus. 

Prediction: Leafs in five

(5) Edmonton Oilers vs. (12) Chicago Blackhawks

The Oilers enter these playoffs boasting the top two offensive forces in the world in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, automatically making them the heavy favourites in this series against an aging Blackhawks team who clearly did not expect to be in a playoff position. On paper, the Oilers are better and deeper at every position. The Oilers have no problem scoring, further evidenced by the top power play conversion rate in the NHL. Their defence isn’t spectacular but functional, surely better than the Hawks blueline that bleeds chances in front of Corey Crawford, who has been marred by injuries and inconsistency. Crawford must provide excellent goaltending for the Blackhawks to move on, a big ask at this point. At the other end, Mikko Koskinen must merely be average for the Oilers, who do a fine job protecting him from opposing teams. Koskinen does have plenty of KHL playoff experience. The largest X-factor for the Hawks is the playoff experience of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, who have done it all to this point. These are clutch performers who can easily change the tide of games, but the help from below is lacking, with a lack of scoring punch. It’s the Oilers series to lose, but don’t be shocked if the Hawks topple them on the strength of their core leaders.

Prediction: Oilers in four

(6) Nashville Predators vs. (11) Arizona Coyotes

One of the major storylines heading into this series is goaltending. Jusse Saros finally overthrew Pekka Rinne as top dog in the Nashville crease, lifting the Preds from the Central division basement. The Coyotes are no slouch in the goaltending department, boasting arguably the best tandem in the NHL in Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta. The Coyotes success begins and ends with their goalies. Should Kuemper go down, the Coyotes are comfortable with their luxury 1B backup. Coincidentally, both of these teams struggle to score, with a lack of star power in Nashville, while the Coyotes star names have taken on more defensive responsibility at the cost of offensive production. The Coyotes still have the edge though, thanks to the proven playoff prowess of Phil Kessel, in addition to Hart winner Taylor Hall, who is capable of dominating games. The Preds need Matt Duchene to contribute more like a first-line center if they are to go deep in these playoffs. At this stage however, the Coyotes possess more upside on offence.

Prediction: Coyotes in five

(7) Vancouver Canucks vs. (10) Minnesota Wild

This is a match up between two teams in very different places, as the Canucks are nearing the completion of a rebuild, while the Wild have exited their prime playoff years.The Wild hold the edge defensively, especially when considering the two-way buy-in of the forward group. This is a veteran team that can lock down defensively to protect a lead. The offence, on the other hand, enters the play-in round as one of the weakest. Breakout star Kevin Fiala was the only Wild player remotely close to a point-per-game pace. This is where the Canucks will look to flex their muscles, as they boast a deep offence capable of scoring in bunches, led by young star Elias Pettersson. It will be interesting to see if the inexperience of this young core is a factor in the series. Goaltending is also a strength, as goalie Jacob Markstrom is coming off a phenomenal season that earned him consideration for the Vezina. The Wild crease is less certain, as Devan Dubnyk turned in a disappointing year, perhaps opening the door for a less experienced netminder to take the reins for the playoffs. Despite the uncertainty, the Wild net should be well insulated. 

Prediction: Wild in five

(8) Calgary Flames vs. (9) Winnipeg Jets

The Jets and Flames enter this postseason much farther down the standings than last spring, thanks to lackluster seasons. Both teams could benefit from the long pause and turn the tables come playoff time. It wasn’t long ago that the Jets were a perennial cup contender and they still have the same core intact, minus Dustin Byfuglien. Also, Connor Hellebuyck was just nominated for the Vezina and if he continues his play, there is no limit for this team. They have an elite offence with names like Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Blake Wheeler and while they aren’t spectacular defensively, they are serviceable. The Flames also have good forward depth, but there is concern regarding Johnny Gaudreau and his ability to perform in the playoffs where physicality is more of a factor. The Flames need their top players to step up. Another cause for concern is in the crease, which featured David Rittich and Cam Talbot. Rittich struggled mightily, while Talbot posted a .919 save percentage in 26 appearances. The Flames won’t have much time to waste figuring out who their man is before they find themselves knocked out. 

Prediction: Jets in four

[junker-town]

Why each AFC East team will go over and under their Vegas win total in 2019

Vegas win totals are set for the 2019 season. With teams through their offseason workout program, it’s time to consider where each team will land.

The true NFL offseason is officially upon us. Mandatory minicamp has come to a close and players from all 32 teams have gone their separate ways. Most players will get some vacation time in while continuing to work out in preparation for the return to training camp in late July. Once training camp arrives, the road to Super Bowl 54 begins in earnest.

Each year, sports bettors are able to wager on where they think each team will finish up in the win column. Sportsbooks release a number for a team’s win total and you can bet over or under that number. If you land on the number, it’s a push, or tie.

Below are win totals for the four teams in the NFC West. The number in parenthesis is the juice on the over and the under. For example, if you bet the over on 11 wins for the Patriots, the payout is -140 (you bet $140 to win $100). If you bet the under, the payout is +120 (you bet $100 to win $120). That means the over is the favorite.

Sportsbooks are not predicting each team will win the number of games on the win total. Rather, they are setting a number so that they can get a similar amount of money on both sides of the wager. They do not want an extensive liability on one side or the other since then they would be relying on a specific outcome. With even money on both sides of a wager, the house will profit more often than not.

Now that roster overhauls are mostly complete and teams have finished up spring workouts, we took a few minutes to chat with site managers from each SB Nation team blog. They offered reasons why their team could end up over the win total and why their team could end up under the win total. The sites pay close attention to their teams and have more insight than your average national reporter.

New England Patriots: 11 (-140, +120) — Pats Pulpit

Why over: Fun (at least when you’re from the northeastern regions of the country) fact: over the ten-year span since Tom Brady returned from an ACL tear that cost him all of 2008, the Patriots averaged 11.3 wins per regular season. The only times they failed to win more than 11 came in 2009, Brady’s first season back, and last year when they went 11-5. So just going by probabilities, you should take the over. The Patriots have also shown in 2018 that the dynasty is still alive and well. And while the team has suffered considerable losses since winning the Super Bowl, Brady, Belichick, and company should never be betted against – especially considering that they will go against three divisions this year that are projected to be rather inconsistent: the AFC and NFC East as well as the AFC North.

Why under: Before lifting the Lombardi Trophy to cap the 2018 season, the Patriots won 11 regular season games. Problem is – at least as things stand today – that the team has gotten worse since then: gone are Rob Gronkowski, Trey Flowers, Trent Brown, and seven assistant coaches. Drafting N’Keal Harry in round one should help a bit, yes, but Bill Belichick and company still need to do a mighty fine job of getting him and the rest of the offseason acquisitions up to speed quickly to help replace Gronkowski, Flowers and company. If they fail to do that to a sufficient degree, or if the injury bug bites key players such as Tom Brady, New England could very well fall below 11 victories for the first time since 2009.

New York Jets: 7.5 (-110, -110) — Gang Green Nation

Why over: They’ve invested heavily on both sides of the ball, but those offensive investments are what could get this team up to .500 or better. Adding Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, and Kelechi Osemele are key talent infusions, and Sam Darnold is coming off a solid rookie year that was overshadowed by Baker Mayfield. The on-field additions are big, but the move to new head coach Adam Gase could be the key in 2019. We saw all sorts of drama between him and Mike Maccagnan before the latter was abruptly fired in May. This roster is not yet built for sustained long-term success, or even clear-cut playoff contender success, but there’s enough talent on the table to get this team to .500.

Why under: The Jets have made some solid additions via the draft, but the bulk of their impact additions have been free agent signings. The talent is intriguing, but focusing roster-building on overpaying in free agency is something that often does not pay significant dividends. Add in the drama surrounding Gase-Maccagnan and Gase’s track record as a head coach, and things could go south in a hurry.

Buffalo Bills: 6.5 (-130, +110) — Buffalo Rumblings

Why over: The Bills will not be playoff contenders in 2019, but their offseason additions point to a team that could easily get the one more win necessary over 2018 to hit the over. They surrounded Josh Allen with upgrades at virtually every single position, and while the ceilings for some of those players are relatively low long-term, they are solid additions for 2019. Veteran tackle Ty Nsekhe, guard Spencer Long, and center Mitch Morse will help, and rookie guard Cody Ford is a solid core addition. The Bills added defensive tackle Ed Oliver through the draft. They are coming off a -5 turnover differential, and if that number can move back toward the mean, this is a team that could flirt with .500.

Why under: The biggest question mark could be the ground game. The team added notable veteran Frank Gore to the backfield and drafted Devin Singletary in the third round. Those two plus LeSean McCoy don’t exactly wow for the time being. If the ground game is ineffective and the offense is laid on Josh Allen’s shoulders, things could get ugly.

Miami Dolphins: 5 (Even, -120) — The Phinsider

Why over: The Dolphins have more talent than people realize, especially as everyone lost to injury last year begins returning this year. Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, and Brice Butler are a solid wide receiver group that can have periods of domination when they start using their speed. Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage should be a powerful 1-2 at running back. Mike Gesicki should grow into his role as the starting tight end in his second season. Xavien Howard, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Reshad Jones, and Bobby McCain make up four of the five defensive backs positions - then add in TJ. McDonald who can play up the box as a thumping safety/linebacker mix. Raekwon McMillan, Jerome Baker, and Kiko Alonso are solid linebackers when they are put in the right role - and McMillan and Baker are just growing into the NFL. There is a lot of talent that just needs to be put together - plus the addition of Josh Rosen.

Why under: The offensive line is still a giant question mark, the pass rush has to be discovered still, and the Dolphins are getting really young, really fast. If position groups and the entire offense/defense are not able to come together, or any of the young players are unable to live up to expectations, it could be a long year. At quarterback, the Dolphins will either be relying on Ryan Fitzpatrick and hoping for Fitzmagic more than Fitztragic, or on Rosen and hoping he learned as a rookie in Arizona and will now play like the franchise quarterback he may be. If neither quarterback can do those things, Miami will struggle to find their way to five wins.

[atomairbus1-blog]

Mock Draft Roundup: Safety and defensive tackle are the Eagles’ most popular first round options

The 2019 NFL Draft will be here in less than three weeks. Mock draft season is in full gear and there’s no shortage of opinion as to whom the Philadelphia Eagles might select with the No. 25 overall pick. Let’s take a look at which players the experts have the Eagles taking this week.

The Eagles would be fortunate to add this guy to their defensive line.

Wilkins contributes immediately on all three downs, giving the Eagles’ even more depth after the key signing of Malik Jackson. Keep ‘em fresh and keep ‘em attacking! From my pre-Combine top 5 defensive tackle piece: “Wilkins just gets after it. Whatever he lacks in length, he more than makes up for with high quality traits. He understands how to use his hands and read his keys while possessing good balance and flexibility. He also has better movement skills than you would expect from a man his size. A dog in pursuit, Wilkins is a playmaker whether being run at or away from.” Analytical Nugget: Ranked 5th of 24 defensive tackles with a 12.2% pressure rate (per the Sports Info Solutions 2019 Rookie Handbook).

If one of the better defensive tackles drops, that has to be pick for Philadelphia. If not, a safety like Adderley could be attractive. Adderley excels in coverage, with his ability to track the ball and speed to close on a play.

Time to start thinking about a Malcolm Jenkins replacement? He’s 31. Abram is my No. 1-ranked safety.

Philly gets a super-instinctive cornerback here for a defense that was No. 30 in passing yards per game last season.

I think it’s more likely than not that Gardner-Johnson is gone by the time the Eagles pick at No. 25 in the first round, but if he’s not, or even if he’s within striking distance in a trade-up scenario, I think he should be one of their top targets. The Eagles need help in their secondary overall. On paper, safety is the specific spot in which they could gain the most improvement. But they also need work in coverage at nickel corner. Gardner-Johnson gives them an immediate starter at free safety while also giving them the flexibility to play him at nickel corner against certain offensive weapons.

It’s hard for me to imagine Philadelphia viewing recent addition Andrew Sendejo as a permanent presence on their backend, which stills puts them in the market for a safety in the NFL Draft. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson had an excellent 2018 season and has the scheme versatility that the Eagles covet. He has shown excellent range as well as the ability to play man coverage and fill against the run. No team would use his skill set than the Eagles.

The Eagles most important player is Carson Wentz. He has been injured each of the past two seasons. I think it is imperative that the Eagles do everything they can to protect him. While the offensive line looks good on paper, depth is a concern on the inside. Brandon Brooks is recovering from an Achilles injury. He plans to be healthy for the season, but you cannot count on that. Lindstrom is a terrific guard prospect. He was a stud right guard in college and could be plugged in right away if Brooks isn’t ready to go for September. Lindstrom is 6-4 and 308 pounds. He is a lot of fun to watch. He fires off the ball on run plays and is able to get good movement. Lindstrom is strong and athletic. He is a solid pass protector. He reads stunts and loops well and has the agility to get them blocked up. Lindstrom has good athleticism. He blocks well in space. Lindstrom would make sense for the Eagles because of his talent and versatility. He played right guard and right tackle for BC. I think guard is his best position, but he could play on the outside if needed. He could also slide inside and play center. Lindstrom would be a smart pick for the present and the future.

Trade up! Let’s saaaaaay Oliver slips to, saaaaaay, the 18th overall pick, it would make sense for the Eagles to get aggressive and try to trade up to get him. A few weeks ago, we projected what the cost would be to make such a trade, and determined that historically speaking, the cost to move up from the mid-20’s into the teens was a third-round pick. Since the Eagles don’t have a third-round pick (thank you very much, Golden Tate), we figure it’ll cost one of the Eagles’ second-round picks, with a third-round pick coming back to the Eagles. Here’s what we have in mind — Eagles get: 18th overall pick (value of 900), 81st overall pick (value of 185), TOTAL VALUE: 1085... Vikings get: 25th overall pick (value of 720), 53rd overall pick (value of 370), TOTAL VALUE: 1090. Why would the Vikings do this? Well, they desperately need offensive line help, and there should be a number of worthy offensive linemen available at pick 25? Does that work for everyone? No? Well, the math works on the trade value chart, so shut up. Anyway, for a DT, Oliver is short and light, with short arms and small hands. He has to make up for that with athleticism, and he does. His athletic measurables were predictably outstanding at the Combine. Size is why Aaron Donald fell to 13 in the 2014 NFL Draft, and how Geno Atkins somehow fell to the fourth round in 2010. I do think the NFL learned its lesson on that, and isn’t worrying as much about their interior defensive linemen being 6’4, 330. Can they be disruptive? That’s what matters. An interior defensive line featuring Fletcher Cox, Malik Jackson, Oliver, and Treyvon Hester would be a nightmare for many interior offensive lines.

Versatile slot corner and safety hybrid with ball skills, athleticism, and an aggressive and vocal on-field persona.

This is the first week where DT Christian Wilkins has been available and I did not select him. The reasons are twofold: 1) If I write one more article about Christian Wilkins, I may romantically kiss the business end of a paintball gun...and 2) I really don’t think Wilkins (or any other elite D-Line prospect) will be sitting there at #25, so I think it’s time to at least consider other options. If you frequent some of the other mock draft sites, you’re likely to see a lot of “experts” force-feeding the Eagles RB Josh Jacobs, or having them reach for a CB...but not here. In this CMD, I explore an option most people aren’t talking about: O-Tackle. “Yeah, but the Eagles have Jason Peters, Jordan Mailata, and Big V...THERE’S NO ROOM!” Ask yourself this: What if Jason Peters is available LESS this year than he was last year, or even considerably less...he is a year older, after all. And we KNOW Peters is done after this season regardless; do you really want to wait until he’s gone to address this issue? After TWO DECADES of ELITE play at LT with Tra Thomas and Jason Peters, I’m not content settling for mediocrity with Big V, or betting everything on Mailata who’s played less football than most high school freshmen. Wentz’s health is at stake here. Therefore, in this week’s CMD, we buck the trend and select OT Greg Little. Frankly, I’m not sure why this guy isn’t getting more love. Unlike Cody Ford or Jonah Williams, Little screams “Left Tackle” to me. He has a deep, natural knee bend, a great set of feet, and is a mature coachable guy with a high football IQ. Last season, against elite, NFL-quality pass rushers in the SEC, Little allowed just five QB pressures and four “blown blocks”...a day’s work for Big V. As a bonus, if Mailata pans out, I think Little’s skills translate favorably to Guard, which is a position of need for the Eagles anyway.

LB Jordan Hicks ran the defense well in Philadelphia when he was healthy, but now with his move to Arizona, a new leader is tabbed by the Eagles. Bush can fly around the field to make plays.

After the 2017 season there were questions about Gardner-Johnson’s tackling ability but he proved he’s more than capable in ‘18, and his coverage ability makes him an attractive option for the Eagles.

Weird spot for the Eagles, who definitely don’t NEED help on the defensive line. They’re just in a good spot from a roster perspective right now, so why not grab a guy who is a top-10 talent, get a fifth year option on him and don’t have to worry about rushing him back to the field. It’s like the Sidney Jones plan but for the DL.

Abram is a tone-setter at safety and has some linebacker to his game. He could blossom into a superstar learning from Malcolm Jenkins for a season or two.

Long is sneaking into the first round as well as the Eagles need to continue to build cornerback depth. [BLG Note: ?????]

Even after bringing back Rodney McLeod and signing Andrew Sendejo, safety should still be a draft need for the Eagles and they have a chance to take the top one off the board in the first round. Maybe it’s still more likely they take a defensive lineman in the first round, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of taking a safety either. The biggest knock on Adderley is that he played for a small program, but he has all the traits teams want in an NFL safety. At 6-0, 206, Adderley has good range and played cornerback earlier in his college career. The Eagles always value versatility in the secondary. There’s also a discernible intensity to Adderley’s game. In 2018, he had 87 tackles, four INTs and seven PBUs for the Blue Hens and has been a return man. The Eagles were reportedly at Delaware’s pro day to get a closer look at him. The Eagles have McLeod under contract for one more season, but he’s coming off a serious injury and his future after the 2019 season is up in the air. Malcolm Jenkins is 31 now. And Sendejo signed a contract for one year, but that’s not a reason to draft a safety. In fact, the Eagles could even cut Sendejo for a minimal cap hit if he doesn’t work out; that would also erase him from the comp pick formula, like Corey Nelson last season. If the Eagles drafted Adderley, he would figure in immediately as the third safety when Jenkins plays linebacker or slot corner, which means he would get decent playing time as a rookie. He’d also be groomed to become a starter in Year 2.

Blockbuster alert! The Giants trade down, passing on the chance to land a quarterback at No. 17, and allow the Eagles to take a defensive lineman that has Aaron Donald-like potential. The best defensive line in the NFL is solidified with this selection.

The Eagles don’t have many actual needs for this season after acquiring Jordan Howard, but they do need depth at a few spots and to plan for the future at others. Defensive tackle falls into both categories, and Tillery is probably the best option available at this point. There are some questions about his commitment to football but his talent is undeniable and he’d only have to be the No. 3 defensive tackle in 2019.

The options in play are Josh Jacobs, Chris Lindstrom, Johnathan Abram, Dexter Lawrence and Tilley, who is special as a person and a talent.

As bad as the Eagles pass defense was last year the secondary cupboard is far from bare so they aren’t necessarily locked into taking a cornerback or safety with this pick. Instead Philly may look to replenish a once deep defensive line rotation that has been a victim of attrition in recent years. Especially on the interior, where there is little or nothing beyond Fletcher Cox and the recently acquired Malik Jackson. There may not be a more freakish blend of size, strength and athleticism in this class than Lawrence, who at one time was being talked about as a potential #1 overall pick. An immovable object in the middle, Lawrence excels at eating gaps, stuffing the run and occupying multiple blockers. Lawrence isn’t a dynamic pass rusher but uses an outstanding combination of quickness and power to disrupt in the backfield and make plays up front.

A versatile prospect, Ford had a breakout 2018 for the Sooners. He’s still somewhat raw and needs experience to reach his full potential, but much like Jonah Williams of Alabama, Ford is a remarkable athlete.

He would play right away in three-safety alignments for an Eagles team that likely feels like it’s a player or two away from returning to the Super Bowl, and with good reason.

The trade for Jordan Howard both clarifies the outlook at running back and addresses Philadelphia’s biggest question mark. At his best working downhill against the run, Abram thrives when allowed to operate almost like a linebacker, though he could be a liability in coverage.

The Eagles have bigger needs than corner, but passing up a complete player like Murphy would be difficult. While he lacks the elite physical tools of other corners in this class, Murphy’s instincts, intelligence and ball skills set him apart.

Eagles are one of three teams to work out Lindstrom extensively at his Pro Day. The others were Baltimore (could take him at 22) and the Packers (could take him at 32). Eagles could have him (or Dalton Risner) play either guard spots this year, and be in the mix for the right tackle spot once Jason Peters retires and move Lane Johnson to the left side.

S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson - 4 S Nasir Adderley - 3 S Johnathan Abram - 2 OG Chris Lindstrom - 2 DT Ed Oliver - 2 DT Christian Wilkins - 2 DT Jerry Tillery - 2 DT Jeffery Simmons - 1 DT Dexter Lawrence - 1 CB Deandre Baker - 1 CB David Long - 1 CB Byron Murphy - 1 OT Cody Ford - 1 OT Greg Little - 1 LB Devin Bush - 1

S - 9 DT - 8 CB - 3 OT - 2 OG - 2 LB - 1

Offense - 4 Defense - 21

This is the first mock roundup we’ve done that features no mock drafts from prior to the Jordan Howard trade. You might’ve been able to tell as much considering Josh Jacobs is no longer being mocked to Philly at No. 25. While I’d almost never say the Eagles taking a first round running back is “likely,” I wouldn’t rule it out completely. The Eagles are bringing Jacobs to Philly for a pre-draft visit, after all.

With running back out of the picture, safety and defensive tackle have taken over as the most popular Eagles picks. I think those are very good bets. It’s easy to see Philly addressing one of those spots in the first round.

We know Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is on the Eagles’ radar given that they brought him to Philly for a pre-draft visit. Some believe CGJ is more of a Day 2 pick (Kempski’s mock has the Eagles taking him at No. 53) but others believe he’s much better than that. CGJ is actually The Draft Network’s No. 12 overall prospect.

I can’t see the Eagles taking Abram at No. 25.

Jeffrey Lurie talked about how the Eagles believe in “volume” of draft picks at this year’s NFL owner meetings. Despite this, I do think a trade up is possible. The board doesn’t always shape up so well at No. 25 in some of these mock scenarios. And if a prospect like Ed Oliver falls further than expected, well, it could make sense to be aggressive and get him.

I’m pretty sure the Eagles are not taking “David Long” (or any cornerback, really, but especially not him) at No. 25. Thanks anyway, PFF.

Chris Lindstrom is gaining some buzz as dark horse pick. My first reaction is that I’m not a huge fan of drafting a guard at No. 25 but investing in the trenches is important. And Lindstrom does offer versatility.

What do you think of this week’s picks? Who do you want the Eagles to take in the first round?

Source: https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2019/4/6/18298136/2019-nfl-mock-draft-roundup-safety-defensive-tackle-eagles-most-popular-first-round-options-philly

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Your Complete Eagles and Saints Playoff Betting Preview

The Eagles and Saints will take the field on Sunday afternoon in New Orleans with a trip to the NFC Championship Game at stake, and this showdown is not without plenty of storylines. Alvin Kamara’s borderline obsessive anti-Eagles shit-talking, ski mask wars, the continuation of Nick Foles flashing his sizable poise and Sean Payton’s cash stacks locker room stunt have combined to give this game no shortage of drama. Juicy context aside, the main question for fans and bettors is this—will the highly-anticipated rematch between these two teams be any different than the first meeting? Much has changed for both squads since the November beat down in which the Saints blew the Eagles out of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in a 48-7 rout, so let’s unpack the intangibles, trends, and matchups in search of identifying the winning side.

It Has Happened Before

The most difficult thing about betting on the Eagles in this one is that those who back the team with a rooting or betting interest watched the sum of all fears play out before them in that blowout loss. It’s easy to say, “Well, this time around the Eagles have Foles, it’s the postseason, they have a totally different defense, different vibe, etc.” While all of that may be true, such a thorough ass-kicking understandably creates natural pause. Will those changes bridge a 41-point gap?

Alvin Kamara was NOT CAPPIN

when he said the Saints would’ve BEAT TF outta the Eagles last szn

pic.twitter.com/78uOvpo1w1

— VERSACEBOYENT (@VersaceBoyEnt2) November 19, 2018

The first thing to consider is that regular season outcomes aren’t necessarily reliable predictors of postseason outcomes. The Eagles need not look beyond their own playoff history for proof. In 2002, the Eagles handled the Buccaneers in October of the regular season, only to lose the postseason rematch three months later. It was the same story in 2008 when the Eagles obliterated the Cardinals on Thanksgiving night in a 28-point win before going on to lose the NFC Championship Game in Arizona as a 3.5-point road favorite.

We have also seen the Saints stumble in the postseason despite having great expectations. Consider that in 2011 New Orleans racked up 13 wins on their way to winning the NFC South, but then went on to lose to the 49ers in the NFC Divisional Round as a road favorite. The Saints scored at least 40 points in their previous four contests leading up to that game, and Drew Brees threw for 5,476 yards and 46 touchdowns that season. None of it mattered.  In fact, the Saints have failed to even reach the NFC Championship Game in any of their four subsequent postseason trips after their 2009 Super Bowl season.

While it’s not often that a team loses by 40 points and then gets a shot at a playoff rematch, there is precedent of revenge in this situation. In 2010, the Jets traveled to Gillette Stadium and were railroaded by the Patriots in a 45-3 shelling, but went back to Foxborough the following month and won to advance to the AFC Championship Game. To reiterate, Mark Sanchez beat Tom Brady. In the playoffs. And while this is the only time in NFL history that a team lost a regular season game by 40+ points and then scored postseason revenge, I’m not sure that an Eagles win requires an act of God. Yeah, the odds are long for the Eagles this week, but since when does that matter to them?

The Eagles appear to be a markedly better team this time around. Leading into the first matchup, the defending champs looked unsteady, having failed to win back-to-back games at that point in the season. The Eagles were reeling, coming off a surprising loss at home as a big favorite over the Cowboys. Fast-forward nearly two months and they are winners of four-straight and six of their last seven games. There is a new quarterback, and with him, it would seem there’s also a new feel and confidence about the team, but the Eagles’ transformation isn’t just about mojo or magic.

The NFL officially changes Cody Parkey's missed field goal to a blocked kick by Treyvon Hester

(via @Eagles)pic.twitter.com/IdMCp65W5B

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 7, 2019

OK. Maybe there’s just a little magic. But let’s look at what else is different.

Defensive Improvement

Consider the evolution of Jim Schwartz’s defense. One thing that jumps off the page about the first meeting was the performance of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. The two backs combined for 29 carries and 174 yards. Ezekiel Elliott gashed a hemorrhaging Eagles’ front for 151 yards the previous week. Compare those results with what opposing backs have done against the Eagles over the last four games: 48 carries for 118 yards. That’s it.

Last week, Chicago’s Jordan Howard was held to only 35 yards on 10 carries while the Eagles effectively eliminated the Bears’ most dangerous offensive weapon in Tarik Cohen. That type of effort simply would not have happened six weeks ago. Part of this improvement can be attributed to the continued high-level play of safety Malcom Jenkins and the recent improved performance of players like linebacker Nigel Bradham and cornerback Cre’Von LeBlanc, but the other part is that the personnel is simply better now.

Chandon Sullivan and De’Vante Bausby played a combined 50 snaps in the first meeting, neither player is any longer on the active roster. Sidney Jones, who was some combination of injured and plain awful in that game, also isn’t expected to play (though he did appear at practice Thursday). The Eagles’ secondary, while still a vulnerable group that figures to struggle some on Sunday, has benefited in recent weeks from the late-season growth of Maddox (Allen Robinson double moves aside) and better play from Rasul Douglas.

Offensive Improvements

At the time of the first meeting, the Saints were averaging 14.7 more points per game than the Eagles, but get this–over each of the two teams’ past seven games, it’s the Eagles (25.4 ppg) that are actually outscoring the Saints (24.8 ppg). Go figure. And on that note, there’s been substantial improvement in terms of the Eagles’ passing output during that stretch:

First 10 games: 68.8 completion percentage, 95.7 passer rating, 3.1 sacks allowed per game, 20.5 points per game

Last 7 games: 71.7 completion percentage, 104.8 passer rating, 1.4 sacks allowed per game, 25.4 points per game

I’m not going to waste time here debating the merits of Carson Wentz and Foles. I think everybody has had enough of that exercise, so whatever amount of this increased output you want to chalk up to the quarterback switch is on you. Beyond quarterback play, the return of Darren Sproles and improved play by the Eagles’ offensive line have each made a huge difference. You have probably heard by now that the unit held Aaron Donald, J.J. Watt, and Khalil Mack to a combined 0 sacks, but it’s worth repeating and illustrates just how good the group has been. They will need a similar performance this week against Cameron Jordan and a formidable Saints defense that has generated 49 sacks this season.

Very much a key to this game will be the Eagles’ ability to sustain drives. They were only 3-10 on 3rd down conversions in the first matchup and were 0-2 on fourth down. The Eagles were 6-13 on 3rd down and 1-1 on 4th down a week ago against the Bears’ top-ranked defense.

Carson Wentz to Golden Tate after scoring the 4th and goal touchdown:

“That route was NASTY!”

pic.twitter.com/S8bkuuU3D7

— Eagles Nation (1-0) (@PHLEaglesNation) January 9, 2019

If they can replicate a similar performance on do-or-die downs this week, they are going to find themselves in the game late.

Still Up Against It

Drew Brees started the season with 29 touchdown passes to only two interceptions over his first 11 games, but followed that hot start with only three touchdowns and three interceptions over his final four games. Still, it would probably be foolish to assume that Brees will be anything other than excellent on Sunday.

While there are plenty of reasons to feel good about the Eagles’ ability to pull an upset, it’s of particular concern that Brees has thrown 21 touchdowns and only one interception while averaging 9.5 yards per attempt in seven home games this season. The Saints’ firepower and talent should not be undersold. The Eagles are still up against it on Sunday afternoon.

The Action

Philadelphia opened as a consensus 10-point underdog, but that line has since been bet down, making the Saints an 8-point favorite at most sportsbooks. As of Friday afternoon, 55% of the total point spread bets and 68% of the point spread money backs the Eagles. In terms of the total, 72% of the bets and an overwhelming 97% of the money is on the over.

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So where’s the value? Those looking to take the Eagles with the points can head to DraftKings, FanDuel, BetStarsNJ, or��SugarHouse. All of New Jersey’s legal sports betting apps have the Eagles at +8 (-110). If you’re on the Saints, you can also get the same price (-110) at any of those books. Meanwhile, if you’re looking to grab the Eagles on the moneyline, you should head to FanDuel and get them at +320 because they are currently offering a considerably better payout than the competition.

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Totals bettors on the over should head to DraftKings or SugarHouse and get it at 51 (-120), while those on the under can grab it at 51.5 (-110) with FanDuel or BetStarsNJ.

Betting Trends to Know

Nick Foles is 10-2 overall as a starting quarterback in his second stint with the Eagles. He’s 6-1 straight-up and against the spread as an underdog, with the lone loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Cowboys last season. As a starter this season, he’s 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS. The loss came back in Week 2 when the Eagles lost their starting running back (Jay Ajayi) and a starting wide receiver (Mike Wallace) early on and were already without Alshon Jeffery. Foles completed 73% of his passes for 334 yards in that contest. He did have Josh Perkins, though…

Quite literally, Foles has been money in contests that either are, or essentially amount to elimination games over the past two seasons, going 7-0 in such games. Included in the wins are triumphs over the 10-6 Falcons, 13-3 Vikings, 13-3 Patriots, 13-3 Rams, 11-5 Texans, and 12-4 Bears. Not bad.

The Eagles are 5-4 ATS away from Lincoln Financial Field this season, including 5-2 ATS over their past seven contests. The Saints aren’t unbeatable at home, but they are damn good. Dating back to last season, New Orleans is 14-2 SU at home. The Saints are also 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome this season.

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New Orleans had the NFL’s second-best record against the number at 10-6 this season (behind only Chicago), but it was a bit of a roller-coaster ride for those backing the Saints. They failed to cash their first two games of the season before ripping off nine-consecutive covers. They are one of only three teams since 2003 to accomplish such a feat. They stumbled late, however, going 1-4 ATS to close the season. Surprisingly, that may not be a good thing for those backing the Eagles. The last nine teams that failed to cover in any of their final three games entering the postseason are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their first playoff game. In many cases, those teams covered the spread with ease. Also of concern for those backing the Eagles is Sean Payton’s 5-0 home playoff record and that New Orleans was both 3-1 SU and ATS in the regular season against 2018 postseason qualifiers.

Over the past two seasons, underdogs are 15-1 ATS in the postseason. In last year’s divisional round, underdogs were 3-1 ATS and 2-2 SU. I do wonder if the market is about to correct itself. Arguments could be made for double-digit wins by any of the four favorites this weekend, but these the lines seem underdog-friendly. Are the books overvaluing underdogs as a trap? After all, this run on dogs can’t keep up. Can it?

Also of note, several sportsbooks have recently experienced an increase in the amount of moneyline bets on underdogs, and I would expect this trend to continue this week with the Eagles, Chargers, Colts, and Cowboys on the board. That said, the best possible outcome for most books will be if the favorites win outright but fail to cover. That’s something I could see playing out in multiple games this weekend.

Prediction

The Eagles have no doubt improved, but what about the Saints? Was their late season malaise a product of boredom, or was it a warning of what’s to come? Frankly, they haven’t played a crisp football game since Thanksgiving night. What’s more, three weeks will have passed since the Saints tried to win a football game. I expect that to have some impact early on.

I also happen to think Sean Payton is a bit of a fraud. He’s had a future Hall of Fame quarterback since he arrived in New Orleans in 2006 and has managed to win only a single title. Imagine this: Doug Pederson exists another 10 years as the Eagles head coach, but fails to win another championship. He’ll be crucified at that point, yet Payton is slurped by the media. At the very least, there is absolutely nothing to suggest that New Orleans has the coaching advantage this Sunday. I trust Doug Pederson to have this team physically, mentally, and emotionally prepared. And I trust Nick Foles—there’s simply no reason not to trust him. If the Eagles can survive the first 20 minutes and the raucous energy of the home crowd, something they showed they could do in a hostile environment a week ago, I think they have a realistic chance to win the game outright.

I’m going to grab the eight points and roll with the team that has been a historically excellent underdog. I’ve got the Eagles +8.

Final score: Saints 26, Eagles 24

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The post Your Complete Eagles and Saints Playoff Betting Preview appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Your Complete Eagles and Saints Playoff Betting Preview published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

[comm4000]

The Range of 42

The 2013 film, 42 was inspired by the true story of Jackie Robinson’s courageous journey in Major League Baseball during the 1940s. Jackie Robinson’s character is played by Chadwick Boseman who portrays the African American athlete entering a professional sports league that has historically been all-white. The movie candidly captures Robinson’s career while playing for the Brooklyn Dodgers and the Montreal Royals under the management of Branch Rickey (Harrison Ford). This movie connects with multiple concepts that have been discussed and are relevant to the Communication and Sports class at the University of Colorado Denver. 42 touches on the unprecedented racism in sports, the notion that athletes embody the popular ideology of a what it means to be a “hero”, and that professional athletes are expected to solely serve as high-performing athletes to contribute to the economic prosperity of greater business ventures and maintain limited voices off the field.

An unprecedented level of racism and bigotry are key themes in 42. As the first person of color who is signed to Major League Baseball, Robinson experiences racism through racial slurs and hate speech at nearly every game and off the field as well. Robinson is repeatedly called a “N*****” by both disapproving fans and the player he shares the field with. In one scene, a screaming fan yells “go back to Compton!” which is heard throughout the entire stadium. In another scene, Robinson is told by a county police officer “No n***** don’t play with white boys. Get off the field or go to jail”. Furthermore, racism manifests when the decision to sign Robinson to the Brooklyn Dodgers is still pending. A petition called “The Brooklyn Dodgers Declaration of Independence” was passed around and signed by several teammates. The petition was an attempted boycott of the league and read “we, the undersigned Brooklyn Dodgers, will not play ball on the same field as Jackie Robinson”. The racist players were very adamant about keeping Robinson signed to Montreal and predominantly “keeping negroes out of the league”. Blatant racism in Major League Baseball during this era was undoubtedly absurd. However, we witness similar tendencies in contemporary times involving Jeremy Lin in the NBA. Robinson and Lin are comparative because just as we had seen with Robinson in MLB, both icons were undermined for their outstanding athletic achievements and worth because they were of origins that were different from the rest the roster. Both Robinson and Lin had been victimized with racial slurs. Just as Robinson was the called N***** on the field, according to Chito, Lin was recognized as the “Chink in Armor”. 

Jackie Robinson is thoroughly portrayed in this film as the hero he is in real life. Robinson is attributed to being a hero and not just a baseball player which is frequently how athletes tend to be branded. When Robinson goes over to dinner at Mr. Brock’s house, he tells him that “I’m just a ballplayer”. However, Mr. Brock corrects Robinson and assures him that he is greater than that and replies “to all the little-colored boys playing in Florida today, to them, you’re a hero.” As the movie proceeds, Robinson persistently endures racism from white folks and as the hatred increasingly worsens, Robinson’s manager assures him that “you can win this game for us. Everybody needs you. You’re medicine, Jack” in a personal conversation. These dialogues confirm that Robinson emulates a mythic figure and ideal sports hero. According to Chapter 5: Sports and Mythology, a sports hero is defined as “someone who not only achieves greatness on the field but also serves as an admirable person off of it”.

At the beginning of the movie, Robinson is seen at a baseball field on the first day of spring training where he is bombarded by news reporters with provocative questions about his values and intentions in playing in MLB. A reporter asks “Jackie, Jackie, is this about politics?” which is referring to Robinson being the first and only African American to be playing in an all-white league. Jackie politely responds, “No it’s about getting paid”. The course element that ties with this scene is that the public expects athletes to stray away from the political sphere. According to lecture, an athlete’s ability to think critically and form, let alone express their opinion is perceived to be untasteful to the fans and the team’s management and administration. Of course, Robinson’s breakthrough in Major League Baseball sent a powerful message about racial equality, but we never see Robinson express his emotions about the history he is making.

Furthermore, the storyline supports the idea that sports are ultimately a business venture and reiterates the notion that winning is all that matters. Robinson was scouted and signed for his ability to play baseball before anything else. His managers and coaches advocated strongly to secure his spot in the league because he would win games. This notion supports NFL’s Vince Lombardi’s statement in More Than Just a game that, “every time you win, you’re reborn and when you lose, you die a little”. The emphasis on winning isn’t just conveyed through the movie, but in course readings as well. According to Jay (2004), when Branch Rickey signed Jackie Robinson to a Major League Baseball contract, the decision sprang partly from a realization that Major League Baseball’s color line was morally wrong, but it was also true that Rickey saw Robinson, and by extension other black players, as a cheap labor pool that would help his club achieve more victories on the field”. 

In an important scene, Happy Chandler, the Commissioner of Baseball calls into question the team’s viability after losing the Brooklyn Dodger’s manager, Leo Durocher. Durocher had been generating controversy and bad publicity for the business due to factors within his personal life. This ultimately dismays a Catholic youth organization that is noted for spending generously on game seats. Chandler blatantly states “I can’t afford to ruffle their feathers” and “I have no choice but Leo Durocher is suspended from baseball for a year”. This supports the idea that teams will take any action they believe is necessary to ensure that their sales goals are not put in jeopardy. Furthermore, just as we’ve covered in class this semester, audiences will notice that all the managers, reporters and executives in 42 are Caucasian men. The lack of diversity is a statistic that closely aligns with the problem that manifests within the industry today. According to Chalabi (2004), roughly 90% of the managers and head coaches were white and the chart below is indicative of the rest of the breakdown of the league’s staff.

A potentially problematic aspect of this film regards the scene where Jackie Robinson loses his temper after enduring the built-up anger and animosity of racial slurs coming from a player on the opposite team. Robinson is seen exiting the field and violently breaks his bat, screams erratically and throws his hat on the ground. When Robinson is approached by his manager, he tells him, “next white son of a bitch that opens its mouth, I’ll smash their God damn teeth”. Although the events that led up to Robinson’s breakdown were legitimate, it is problematic to our culture because it is showing an athlete exhibit violence and rage. Robinson appears to be someone who has reached the point of no return and this is his method of coping.

After watching the movie with a critical eye and looking for personal connections, it is evident that I cannot entirely relate to Jackie Robinson’s struggles as a black male athlete playing in a “white sport”. I took into consideration that the movie was set to take place during the 1940’s and 1950’s where the sociopolitical climate was much different. However, I still find the information to be unfathomable. I can certainly be empathetic to his challenges of living in this country as a minority and not being perceived as what Michael L. Butterworth (2004) would refer to as the “the chosen people”. I, myself do not meet the standards of the “dominant race” in society being that I am a Chinese woman who was raised in a large Jewish/Catholic family. Ultimately, I chose this movie because I’m passionate about baseball and my family and I are from Brooklyn, New York, which is the team Robinson played for prior to the Dodgers moving to Los Angeles in the 1950s. I found that finding a movie that accounts both a city and a sport that are incredibly profound to me and fulfills this assignment was more than optimal. Although this movie has flaws and some audiences may find it difficult to watch and/or to be biased, I believe it was inspiring, gratifying and educates effectively overall. Racism is still highly prevalent in contemporary society. However, it manifests differently today than it did 60 years ago. I’m confident that everyone should watch the full movie because it provides viewers with historical context and revelations about race in sports. Also, the content is heterogeneous to what we consume through most of our media outlets today. Lastly, people should also watch 42 for the fact that the director, Brian Helgeland, did incredibly well in executing a very difficult narrative through a Hollywood film.

Work Cited

1.     Film: 42. Original Theatrical Date: April 12, 2013. Warner Bros. Pictures and Legendary Pictures.

2.     Butterworth, M. L. (2007). Race in “The Race”: Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Heroic Constructions of Whiteness. Vol. 24, Iss. 3, (pages 228-244).

3.     Chalabi, M. (2014). Three Leagues, 92 Teams And One Black Principal Owner. Five Thirty Eight. Retrieved from https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/diversity-in-the-nba-the-nfl-and-mlb/4.

4.     Chito. (2012). Examining the Jeremy Lin Phenomenon Through a Critical Lens. CUNY Hunter College and Graduate Center. Flow Journal. Retrieved from http://www.flowjournal.org/2012/02/jeremy_lin_critical_lens/

5.     Jay, K. (2004). More Than Just a Game: Sports in American Life since 1945. New York, NY. Columbia University Press. (pages 1-8)

[auburnfamilynews]

What you see is what you get

The Tiger-Eye Review looks at the games that all SEC teams play throughout the season.  I’ll review the week’s games, highlight points of interest, tendencies and potential issues for the remaining season for the premier conference of NCAA football and any future games these teams may play against the Auburn Tigers. Coaches and their staffs spend most of the summer months looking foward to the season opener. This effort is not just for the particular game preparation related to their opponent’s strength and weaknesses, the film review of previous games or even the scripted offensive plan for the first two series. Oftentimes the real benefit of the first game of the season is the opportunity to achieve a ‘big picture first look’ at how their teams can interact with each other, deal with live game situations, and if they are lucky enough, how they rise to adversity and challenge. Are they disciplined enough to stay focused, do they act as they have been coached in drills, set plays and scrimmages? Do they run their routes, block their man, perform their function on the field with precision? How is their specific task execution? Can they cover their man without drawing a penalty? Can they tackle abruptly and with good form? Is everyone blocking with proper technique and timing? Is the ball handled well, passed efficiently, held onto upon tackling? All of this is under their gaze in a true ‘live ball’ game, with a clock, referee oversight in the noisy embrace of 85,000 fans.

It is for each coaching staff, after a lengthy off-season of limited scope the first real view at their team’s potential.  Additionally, their future opponents are an ever-present focus concerning this vision. How a team plays against the opponent today is a key measure to be judged for the future. Do they take their tasks seriously even if their opponent is unranked? Can they been seen applying themselves to the preparatory tasks and still execute regardless of the what the opposing side does? These are the questions every coach collects in his mind’s eye from the first day back from the recruiting trail until the opening kickoff on that first day of the season. 

  As such, this first view is some of the most important visual information he will have for the rest of the season. For some teams whose offense and defense showed near perfection and efficiency against an un-ranked opponent far inferior in talent, the coaches this week were still were able to collect valuable insight into that potential. To view what their offensive and defensive schemes were capable of is still a measure of achievement and an accountable return on investment of their time and energy all summer.  While not a true test of their full potential, talent and capabilities, it is still a chance to extend their August scrimmages into an early season warm-up under game conditions. Teams like Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M and LSU fall into this category this week and for the most part the visual test of each of these teams confirms their and most fan’s expectations – a couple of hiccups, but overall highly successful. For other teams, mistakes and miscues against a non-conference team allowed a glimpse at more critical weaknesses that might be significant in a noticeable way during game conditions, but were still not severe enough to allow an upset. Kentucky and Mississippi State fall here and both their coaching staffs have much to review. All things being equal, both teams learned a wealth of information by which their teams can work to improve. Coaching staffs at Auburn and Florida had much different observation opportunities. Yes, they had the luxury of victory and clear views of severe problems on both sides of the ball. But inherent in both team’s weathering of mistake prone games with clutch plays and last second heroics, are rare glimpses of player potential and resolve when the game and season are on the line. While there is much to be said of avoiding the miscues that put them in those critical situations, having that knowledge of heart, steadfastness and toughness on a team-wide basis is also a key insight into the character of a team. I’m pretty sure Dan Mullen and Gus Malzhan both know this and are already leveraging this on their approach to this week’s practices and for follow on games throughout the season. It is a golden opportunity for both coaching squads. The next teams to consider are those in obvious turmoil, who through a narrow win or a catastrophic loss in which they held an commanding lead only to watch it evaporate there is an added burden on the coaching vision. Those staffs now have to deal with disunion and dismay by their players at having games slip away to teams they should have outmatched entirely. Arkansas, Missouri, South Carolina, and Ole Miss fall into this category. While some aspects of their games were worthy of note, other critical failings allowed the players to be overwhelmed in the moment. This now impacts every facet of their focus to such a degree that the path back to confidence will take a monumental effort of leadership and coaching acumen to accomplish. It is usually a very hard path for teams to follow in order to recover from early losses or narrow victories like these and exquisite care is needed if the season is to have any success at all. All other considerations and concerns for the season are now blurred while this loss is the entire focal point of all time and effort in team preparation.

And then far back in the dim distance is Tennessee. Watching the Volunteers play before a home crowd at that level of ineptitude was simply shocking, no matter how problematic the Tennessee program has become in the last two decades of scandal, coaching changes and disappointment. With the level of talent visible on their roster sheet it is inconceivable that this team would allow an opposing running back to go from the line of scrimmage outside the 20 yard line into the end zone in the fourth quarter untouched by any defender with the game on the line. 

  When it happened twice in successive possessions? There is simply is no way to unsee that. With that lasting vision burned in the retinas of the fans and administration, Jeremy Pruitt might have just as well given his one month’s notice. Both he and they would have to be blind not to be aware of it. With BYU visiting next week, and a string of four ranked teams in five weeks on the schedule starting the 21st of September, I’m having serious doubts whether Coach Pruitt will finish the season still wearing orange. As one commentator mentioned after seeing the fans walk out of Neyland Stadium before the fourth quarter even started, ‘There is one A-word concerning fans most feared by all administrations in college football, and it isn’t anger. It’s apathy.’ As Neyland stadium emptied in those last few minutes Saturday, that might be the epitaph on Coach Pruitt’s stay in Knoxville. We shall see as the season progresses.

The standard of excellence

  Second half adjustments make all the difference at this level

  SEC West Offense

The good news is the top three SEC West offenses are playing strong and fast behind returning starting quarterbacks. The bad news is the top three SEC West offenses are playing strong and fast behind returning starting quarterbacks. Gus Malzahn’s influence in terms of pace, zone read, deep passing and downhill running has had a growing effect on the SEC West. This season there is the addition of the Brady-Ensminger offense joining the ranks of Texas A&M and Alabama as those most-likely-to-copy-the-Gus-Bus-at-Auburn-under-Cam-Newton in the West. Case in point, Joe Burrow just tied the LSU record for passing touchdowns, in little more than 30 minutes of game time without a single huddle on the field. 

  It worked here and it’s now working there and seemingly everywhere.

  The rest of the West? Questionable, to include the two Mississippi teams and Arkansas. Where does Auburn fit? Only time will tell. Bo and Company have passed their first test, but there are more and harder tests on the current schedule and much work to be done before the clear picture of potential and impact emerges. Watch this space.

  SEC West Defense

With the exception of a strange performance by the Mississippi State Bulldogs, the SEC West defenses performed much to the expected standard, even in the case of Arkansas.  Auburn played a very capable offensive talent and still shut the door in the second half with authority. So did most of the other teams, albeit against much less quality opponents. 

  But the Bullies? Tough as nails one play and then whiffing tackles or coverage the next. The Ragin Cajuns burned them so badly on play after play in late game scoring drives that it’s hard to say they were dominant. They could be, but just weren’t at key moments in that first game. Again, watch this space as the season progresses. Starkville isn’t Knoxville, but let this tendency play out, and it could be.

  SEC East Offense

Hoo-boy. Look what the cat dragged in. Of all the statistics I had to look at this weekend, this was the butt-ugliest of them all. Guess which team had above a 50% third down conversion rate in the East last weekend? If you said the the Volunteers without checking the stats sheet above, I’ll give you a green bean, and a first class reservation at Bellvue with your own padded room. This is just that crazy.

  Granted, Georgia’s numbers are skewed by the fact they didn’t have too many third down conversions to make as they seemed to make first downs at two-play intervals throughout the game, but if the Commodores ever put them in a third down situation Georgia punted just about every time. Will it be enough to win the East? Probably, without even breaking a sweat. But if this continues, don’t count on the Dawgs getting to the CFP this year, as they won’t stand a chance at this rate, even with an easy schedule. Watch this space too.

  SEC East Defense

Where to begin? Outside of Georgia and Florida,five of seven SEC East teams had more than three touchdowns scored on their defenses. This is equal to the pitiful ACC Coastal Division with only the Mountain West Mountain Division out of the entire FBS division structure being worse in that respect. Of course, both of those other divisions contain teams that upset an SEC East opponent this week –  North Carolina and Wyoming, respectfully. 

  And to add insult to injury, the Sun Belt West Division had fewer 21+ point defensive performances, a better opening day division won-loss record than the SEC East and yes, a surprise upset over an SEC East team (Georgia State). Thank you, Knoxville.

  State of the Conference

There isn’t really much to crow about in the Southeastern Conference as a whole this week. When you start the season off just 20 seconds shy and 10 points away from losing half your opening day games (11 seconds and 4 points in the UF-UM game, 9 seconds and 6 points in the AU-OU game), there isn’t much credence to the mantra that the SEC is the top conference in college football top to bottom. The surprise losses all point to a sad reality that there is a short list of premier teams in the league that sit at the top, a small handful of contending teams scrambling at the next tier and a host of deeply troubled teams that are already in a tailspin weeks before conference play even begins to heat up. 

  Only one victory this week was against a ranked team and three of the five losses were against un-ranked teams from non-Power Five conferences. That level of have and have-not in the Southeastern Conference has never been so wide in the time I’ve been tracking these numbers (2013 to present). It is potentially a very disturbing development that if it plays out as the season progresses will have severe consequences in the race for the College Football Playoff, and more importantly in next year’s recruiting.

  I realize this is just the first week. I’ve said before the first few weekly numbers won’t really pan out as a true picture of the conference until inter-conference play heats up in late September and early October. However, this year’s season start wasn’t that great and if it continues on this current trajectory, look to see the various fan bases and administrations come to the similar conclusions for those coaching staffs across the league that are struggling to find answers after a tumultuous beginning.

  Like that  commentator said about Knoxville, the scary word is apathy, not anger.

  Now you see me, now you don’t

The post Tiger Eye Review – WYSIWYG Edition appeared first on Track 'Em Tigers, Auburn's oldest and most read independent blog.

from Track 'Em Tigers, Auburn's oldest and most read independent blog http://trackemtigers.com/tiger-eye-review-wysiwyg-edition/

[cloverbasket4-blog]

30 ROY candidates for 2019 -- 1 for each team

On Monday, Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna Jr. were named Rookie of the Year in the American and National Leagues, respectively. But they were far from the only first-year players to make an impact in the big leagues in 2018.

It would be difficult to find a team in the history of the modern game who went through an entire season without needing to use its farm system. Sometimes, jobs are given to rookies on Opening Day, as was the case with Ohtani and the Angels. Other times, a player has to wait to be called up to make an impact, just like Acuna did with the Braves.

In 2018, both prospects entered the season as Rookie of the Year contenders, if not front-runners, in each league. But sometimes Rookies of the Year come on unexpectedly. With that in mind, here is a potential ROY candidate from each organization.

AL East

Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B There's a strong case to made that Guerrero, MLB Pipeline's No. 1 overall prospect, should have reached the Majors last season, even with the Blue Jays' struggles. But he didn't and ultimately finished with an absurd .381/.437/.636 line and 20 home runs while reaching Triple-A at age 19. His bat is 100 percent ready for the highest level, and once there, Guerrero is a candidate to run away with top rookie honors in the AL, regardless of when he arrives.

Video: EAST@WEST: Guerrero Jr. doubles, advances on error

Orioles: Yusniel Diaz, OF The Orioles' key acquisition in the deadline deal that sent Manny Machado to Hollywood, Diaz is yet to tap into his above-average raw power but has a good idea of what he's doing at the plate, as evidenced by his .285/.392/.449 slash line and 11-homer last season in Double-A. Some other internal options may get first crack in either right or left field as the Orioles rebuild, but Diaz should become an everyday guy for them before long.

Rays: Brandon Lowe, 2B Lowe struggled initially upon reaching the Majors, going 0-for-19 following his debut on Aug. 5. After that, however, he slashed .273/.357/.527 with six homers in 37 games to finish the year with a career-high 28 home runs between Double-A, Triple-A and MLB. He also finished with 129 at-bats, leaving him two ABs short of exhausting his rookie eligibility. Like so many young Rays players, Lowe has the defensive versatility that could make him a near regular for Tampa Bay in 2019.

Red Sox: Michael Chavis, 3B The defending World Series champions have a depleted farm system and few opportunities at the big league level. One of the better power-hitting prospects in the upper Minors, Chavis could contribute if Rafael Devers struggles again or the need for a right-handed-hitting first baseman arises.

Yankees: Justus Sheffield, LHP The Yankees' greatest need is starting pitching, and Sheffield should crack the Opening Day rotation. His fastball, slider and changeup all can be three plus pitches, so it won't be a shock if he's New York's second-best starter after Luis Severino.

Video: Mayo gives some 2019 AL Rookie of the Year contenders

AL Central

Indians: Yu Chang, SS Though he continues to face an uphill battle towards carving out a spot in Cleveland's infield, Chang, a member of the Tribe's 40-man roster, saw increased reps at third base during the regular season and regular time there in the Arizona Fall League, suggesting the hot corner could be his path of least resistance. He has the hitting ability and raw power to profile there, as well as the defensive versatility to handle a utility role.

Royals: Nicky Lopez, SS/2B Lopez is blocked at the moment by Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi, but he's also sound in all phases of the game and has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. He should open the season in nothing less than a utility role and should claim at least semi-regular at-bats.

Tigers: Christin Stewart, OF He's hit at least 25 homers in each of his three full seasons of pro ball and hit a pair of homers in 60 big league at-bats this past September. Stewart has improved his overall approach, drawing a lot more walks, while still hitting balls out of the park, something that should continue with a full-time gig in Detroit next season.

Twins: Stephen Gonsalves, RHP The left-hander didn't fare well during his first taste of the big leagues in 2018, but he had a fantastic year, mostly in Triple-A, finishing second in the system in ERA and fifth in strikeouts, while keeping hitters to a combined .184 BAA. Gonsalves' upside might be limited, but he's ready to be a mid-rotation starter.

White Sox: Eloy Jimenez, OF If anyone can challenge Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero for the title of best offensive prospect in baseball, it's Jimenez. Ready last summer but kept in the Minors for service-time considerations, he'll be the foundation the White Sox build their lineup around.

Watch: Jimenez crushes 12th homer for Charlotte

AL West

Athletics: Jesus Luzardo, LHP Luzardo nearly reached the Majors in 2018 in what was his first full pro campaign as well as his first fully healthy, unimpeded season since his Tommy John surgery in mid-2016. Altogether, the left-hander (in his age-20 season) compiled a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 129 strikeouts and 30 walks in 109 1/3 innings while ascending from Class A Advanced to Triple-A. The A's will be without many of the starting pitchers that were lost due to injuries last season, so expect Luzardo to receive an earnest look during spring training.

Angels: Griffin Canning, RHP The UCLA product projected as an advanced college arm and lived up to that advanced billing, racing all the way to Triple-A in his first full season. His four-pitch mix with excellent command allowed him to miss bats all the way up the ladder and is why he is just about ready to hit the Angels' rotation.

Astros: Kyle Tucker, OF The No. 5 overall pick in the 2015 Draft, Tucker has recorded back-to-back 20-20 seasons in the upper Minors. His Triple-A line (.332/.400/.590) is much more representative of his upside than the numbers from his big league debut (.141/.236/.203).

Watch: Tucker crushes game-tying homer

Mariners: Wyatt Mills, RHP Viewed by scouts as a potential fast-riser when the Mariners took him in the third round of the 2017 Draft, Mills, 23, was just that in his first full season as he reached Double-A and followed it with an impressive turn in the Arizona Fall League. With right-handed delivery and profile that resembles Steve Cisheck's as well as comparable stuff, Mills has all the ingredients needed to become an impactful bullpen piece in 2019.

Rangers: Yohander Mendez, LHP Mendez's prospect luster has dimmed a bit over the last two years, yet that won't prevent him from fitting in the middle of the Rangers' rotation. He still has a quality changeup but needs to refine his command and breaking ball.

NL East

Braves: Touki Tousssaint, RHP The Braves have scores of young pitchers who could contend for Rookie of the Year honors next season. Toussaint gets the nod because of the pure stuff that helped him lead the system in ERA and strikeouts and because of how well his big league debut went, earning him a spot on the postseason roster.

Video: Mayo on potential 2019 NL Rookie of Year candidates

Marlins: Victor Mesa, OF While there currently are quite a few unknowns with Mesa, whom Miami signed for $5.5 million on Oct. 22, the consensus is that the 22-year-old outfielder shouldn't require all too much seasoning in the Minor Leagues after his success in Cuba's Serie Nacional. His plus defense in center field gives him a high floor in the big leagues, and any offensive contributions that surpass expectations could make him a ROY candidate.

Phillies: Ranger Suarez, LHP Suarez made four uneven appearances with Philadelphia in 2018, reaching the big leagues before he turned 23, and he's the kind of smart left-hander who will learn and make adjustments. He's moved very quickly since starting the 2017 season in A ball and should fit nicely into the back end of the young Phillies rotation.

Nationals: Victor Robles, OF Robles has taken second chair to teenage superstar Juan Soto in the Nationals' long-term outfield outlook with good reason. Yet, the future remains incredibly bright for the now 21-year-old center fielder, who hit .288/.348/.525 with three homers and three steals over 21 games with the Nats after a right elbow injury cost him much of the Minor League season. That Robles is the club's projected Opening Day center fielder at the moment makes him a preseason ROY favorite in the NL.

Watch: Robles triples on four-hit night

Mets: Peter Alonso, 1B New Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen has said he isn't opposed to having Alonso start the year in New York, and for good reason. All the first baseman did in 2018 is tie for the Minor League lead in homers, while leading it outright in RBIs. More power was on display in the AFL, and he has nothing left to prove in the Minors.

NL Central

Brewers: Keston Hiura, 2B The best hitter from the 2017 Draft class raked his way up to Double-A in his first full season, ultimately hitting .293/.357/.464 with 52 extra-base hits including 13 homers, and has been equally impressive in the Arizona Fall League, seemingly leaving him on the cusp of entering the Majors in'19. His knack for squaring up the baseball with authority to all fields is a truly special trait -- one that could make him a key Brewers run producer for a long time.

Cardinals: Dakota Hudson, RHP Aside from some command issues (18 BB in 27 1/3 IP), Hudson was effective in relief for the big league club in 2018. It's a crowded rotation in St. Louis, so a relief gig might be his best full-time entry for the time being where his extreme ground-ball rate (2.03 GO/AO in his Minor League career) would play well.

Cubs: Duane Underwood, RHP Underwood still needs some polish but was more aggressive and consistent in 2018 than he had been in years past. With a 92-97 mph fastball and a curveball that shows flashes of becoming a plus pitch, he could contribute in the bullpen and possibly the rotation.

Pirates: Mitch Keller, RHP The Pirates often are cautious with their young pitching prospects, but look for Keller to push them hard in 2019. After struggling upon first reaching Triple-A at age 22, the right-hander then had a 2.86 ERA in August. Room will have to be made in Pittsburgh's rotation, but Keller will be ready to jump through it once the door is opened.

Watch: Keller records 10th K

Reds: Nick Senzel, INF A finger injury, not to mention a bout with vertigo, greatly shortened his 2018 season, and that likely kept the No. 2 pick in the 2016 Draft from getting called up this past season. He's played several positions and was working on the outfield at instructs this fall to make sure there's a spot for his advanced bat in the big league lineup in 2019.

NL West

D-backs: Taylor Widener, RHP Widener has made a very successful transition from reliever to starter and has put his 2015 elbow surgery in his rear-view mirror with two successful, and healthy, seasons in 2017 and 2018. This last year was his first with the D-backs and he led the system in ERA and strikeouts, while holding Southern League hitters to a .197 batting average against.

Dodgers: Alex Verdugo, OF One of the best pure hitters in the Minors, Verdugo also offers developing power, a strong arm and the ability to play anywhere in the outfield. The only thing holding him back from being a slam-dunk Rookie of the Year candidate is a clear opening in the crowded Dodgers lineup.

Giants: Chris Shaw, OF The best power hitter in the Giants system, Shaw made his first big league home run a tape-measure shot: 468 feet off a Seunghwan Oh slider. As of now, he looks like the frontrunner to start in left field for San Francisco.

Padres: Luis Urias, 2B/SS Urias reached the Majors late in August and showed that he can do a little bit of everything before a groin injury prematurely ended his season after just 12 games. Assuming he's on the Padres' Opening Day roster, the 21-year-old could have an early advantage in the ROY based his ability to hit near the top of an order and make everyday contributions on both sides of the ball.

Rockies: Brendan Rodgers, SS With DJ LeMahieu set to depart as a free agent, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2015 Draft is ready to replace him at second base. He has more offensive potential than most middle infielders and the versatility to play anywhere in the infield that he's needed.

Watch: Rodger hammers a solo blast

Source: https://www.mlb.com/news/each-teams-top-2019-rookie-of-year-candidate/c-300739582

[maysoper]

Heady D-Hayes Ahead?

Trade deadline day is usually a day where big names are moved, surprise trades happen, and teams mark their territories as either buyers or sellers. Last season's deadline saw the Winnipeg Jets raise eyebrows in their acquisition of Paul Stastny, so there was hope that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff could land another big fish without sacrificing the future. How did the Jets fare on Trade Deadline 2019? Would they make a splash and go get one of the big piece still on most sports networks' trade boards? I'm not here to say that Cheveldayoff may be recognizing that the window of opportunity for the Jets to win the Stanley Cup may be closing. There are going to be some difficult decisions that the team will have to make this summer regarding a handful of young players, and I don't think another spring with nothing to show for their work in the playoffs will be good enough for the players or the fans. In saying that, the Jets shored up a couple of key areas where they needed some help. In his first move of the day, Cheveldayoff called up the Rangers and acquired Kevin Hayes in exchange for Winnipeg's 2019 first-round pick, forward Brendan Lemieux, and a 2022 conditional fourth-round pick should the Jets win the Stanley Cup. In getting Hayes, the Jets get the big centerman who can pass as well as he shoots while playing a solid 200-foot game. In giving up a fourth-line player and the Jets' first-round pick - likely a late-round pick - Cheveldayoff didn't alter the makeup of his team aside from reducing the number of dumb penalties his team may take. A second trade that seemed to polarize fans on social media, Cheveldayoff picked up centerman Matt Hendricks from the Minnesota Wild in exchange for a 2020 seventh-round pick. I have to admit that this move took me by surprise as well, but it's fairly clear that this move is less about Hendricks playing on the ice and more about what Hendricks brings to the team off it. The guys loved having him as part of the Black Aces last season for his presence around the locker room, and it seems that will be his role once again this season. In a move that can be only described as merciful, the Jets finally traded Nic Petan so that he no longer finds himself in the Winnipeg press box. The only problem, it seems, is that he could find himself in a new press box as the Jets swapped him to Toronto for forward Par Lindholm whose best work is done as a defensive forward. Lindholm's acquisition appears to be a depth move as it's unlikely he'll supplant anyone off Winnipeg's fourth line at the moment, but NHL-experienced bodies who play a solid defensive game in the playoffs are players all teams covet. With the likelihood of Josh Morrissey missing significant time after leaving the game against Arizona with a visible shoulder injury, the Jets went and acquired a couple of left-shooting defencemen to fill the void. Cheveldayoff gave Jason Botterill a call, and when he hung up the phone the Jets had acquired little-used defenceman Nathan Beaulieu for a 2019 sixth-round pick. Beaulieu played well in Montreal before he ran into some poor play and injury trouble in Buffalo, and the Jets are hoping that he can find the game he showed in La Belle Province as he'll likely slot into the lineup immediately. In getting some left-shooting defensive depth, the Jets went out and picked up Bogdan Kiselevich from the Florida Panthers for a 2021 seventh-round pick. Kiselevich is seen more as a defensive defender who has shown some solid play in his own zone with the Panthers. The Jets had pursued the Russian defencemen this past summer when he made it known he was looking for an NHL job, and it seems Chevy finally got his man after this trade. And in a final move, the Jets made a minor-league move in acquiring Alex Broadhurst from Columbus - a tram that was rapidly approaching the maximum NHL contract limit with all their deals - for future considerations. If Columbus sees a number of their unrestricted free agents walk, there's a strong possibility that Broadhurst could be the future considerations for which he was dealt. So how did it go, you're asking? Well, if Dustin Byfuglien and Josh Morrissey return in March, the Jets suddenly have a pile of options and a ton of depth on the blue line as they prepare for a long playoff run. While Sami Niku and Tucker Poolman haven't been forgotten, there are sorts of options with Ben Chiarot, Dmitry Kulikov, Joe Morrow, Beaulieu, and Kiselevich all able to play on the left side. Injuries shouldn't hamper this team's blue line if they get into a war with the likes of Nashville, Vegas, or San Jose. The depth that Winnipeg added up front to support the twelve men that Paul Maurice rolls out there every night certainly won't wow anyone, but both Lindholm and Hendricks will give Maurice a solid effort every night while being great guys at practice. They won't make highlight reels, but they will bring their lunch pails every day to help make this team better. However, let's not forget the centerpiece that Cheveldayoff brought in as Kevin Hayes should make his linemates better. He is an excellent passer, a skill he developed on a line with Hobey Baker Award-winner Johnny Gaudreau at Boston College. Since arriving in the NHL, he's been refining his game as an exceptional two-way centerman who will put in the work in the defensive zone as much as he will in offensive zone. Hayes won't be on many highlight reels nightly, but his skill set should fit nicely in Winnipeg's system. If I'm handing out a grade for Kevin Cheveldayoff's work today, I believe it earns him a B+ depending on how the defence pans out. There's no denying that getting Hayes without dismantling his current roster was a savvy move while his depth moves cost him very little with the chances of being rewarded being higher. Seeing those chances come to fruition will be the challenge now for the both the coaching staff and the players, but if the Jets get a push from Beaulieu and Kiselevich on the blue line, you can turn that B+ into an A for Chevy. It was a good day for the Jets on Monday. Now the work begins. Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice! from Sports News http://hockey-blog-in-canada.blogspot.com/2019/02/heady-d-hayes-ahead.html

[junker-town]

Anthony Davis to the Lakers is a heck of a start to the summer, but it’s only the start

There’s a LOT still left to be resolved after this blockbuster for both the teams involved and the rest of the NBA.

Anthony Davis is a Laker. By becoming a Laker, AD is obviously not a Celtic. Even with the benefit of 48 hours to let it all settle, the deal still comes as a surprise after a year’s worth of posturing and maneuvering between two of the league’s superpowers.

There’s so much to get into here, we’ll have to take it piece by piece.

AD and LeBron and what, exactly?

When the Lakers added LeBron James last summer they did so with the promise that more free-agent superstars would be on the way. There were three prime players available in this loaded class of superstar talent: Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard, who are free agents, and AD who is a year away from such status.

The Lakers had cap space, but neither KD nor Kawhi have shown much interest in taking it and KD’s future took an unfortunate turn during the Finals when he ruptured his Achilles. Paul George didn’t take LA’s money either, electing to sign with OKC long-term last summer rather than return home.

The Lakers simply couldn’t fritter away another year of LeBron. Rather than be left holding the bag the Lakers went all-in to acquire Davis, surrendering much of their young core and the next five years worth of draft rights. It’s a heavy price but Davis is the kind of transformational talent who is worth it, assuming he signs on for the long term. (Don’t laugh. This league, as you may have heard, is crazy.)

When healthy, Davis is one of the five best players in the league, and arguably the league’s best big man. He’s also the kind of player who should do well playing with LeBron. With apologies to Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, neither AD or Bron has played with a talent of this magnitude. It’s an interesting spot for both players.

Davis never played with another star in New Orleans, while LeBron has never taken a backseat to anyone on a basketball court. AD is not a peer like D-Wade or Bosh, he’s a young alpha like Kyrie Irving and we saw how that turned out. This situation should be different because LeBron and AD need each other and it will be on both to make the relationship prosper.

The question now is what the rest of the Lakers roster will look like along their two superstars. They held onto Kyle Kuzma, which is nice, but there are no guards to be found. They have some cap space, but it’s not clear how much they’ll have after the ink is dry. AD has a trade kicker and asking him to give up $4 million after walking away from a lucrative long-term extension may be easier said than done.

The timing of the deal is also important. If the teams wait until July 30 to complete the transaction, that would open up more cap space for the Lakers to spend. There’s nothing compelling the Pelicans to wait longer than the lifting of the July 5 moratorium. Perhaps they can squeeze something else out of the transaction.

These are the kind of details that experienced general managers catch during the negotiation and it’s unclear whether Laker general manager Rob Pelinka saw those items clearly. This is the same general manager that signed a roster full of non-shooters to play with LeBron, so you’ll forgive me if I’m skeptical of his ability to skillfully execute a blockbuster or put together a competent basketball roster.

LeBron and AD is a hell of a start, but it can’t be the end point.

As an aside, don’t misinterpret Masai Ujiri’s blueprint.

The lesson from Toronto’s championship is not to throw caution to the wind in the chase for a transformational star. The lesson is that there’s a time to make that kind of bold move. By trading for Kawhi Leonard, Ujiri added the missing piece to what was already a strong foundation. Simply stockpiling superstars hasn’t always yielded such strong results.

This was a David Griffin move, all the way

When Griffin agreed to take over a President of Basketball Operations with the Pelicans, he did so with the assurance that he’d be able to run the franchise his way and make decisions that were in the best interest of the club. The word at the trade deadline was that New Orleans would never deal with the Lakers, but if getting the best possible return meant dealing with the Lakers, then so be it. Griff was clearly calling the shots.

In Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, and Josh Hart, Griff didn’t get back a potential superstar to pair with Zion Williamson, yet all three certainly have potential. The idea of Zo and Zion running pick-and-roll lobs all the live-long day has tremendous appeal. This is a wonderful opportunity for Ball to get his career back on track.

Hart can fit in anywhere. He’s just a good player. Ingram is the wild card. While some still see untapped potential in his skinny frame, others see Andrew Wiggins. He’s still young and growing, so let’s see what he can become before passing judgment. Ball and Ingram, especially, stand to benefit from the change in scenery.

In those three, along with Williamson and veteran Jrue Holiday, Griff now has the outline of an intriguing basketball team, one that should be able to grow with Zion as he develops. The Pelicans aren’t better without AD, but they’re better positioned to maximize Zion’s prime years than they did for Davis.

A lot has been made of the fact that this deal looks a lot like the one the Pelicans turned down at the deadline. But it’s not the same deal because the draft picks have changed. When the Lakers landed the fourth pick in the lottery, it upped their package considerably. Conversely, Boston’s draft assets looked a lot worse once the ping pong balls settled.

The fourth pick in this week’s draft has value, either as a means to adding another talented young player or in acquiring one. The deep end of the pick pool is where it gets interesting. New Orleans gets LA’s top pick in 2021 unless it falls in the top eight, at which point it becomes unprotected in 2022. The Pels have swap rights in 2023 and an unprotected first in 2024 that can be rolled over to 2025.

All those future picks are liquid gold on the trade market. If the Lakers bottom out, they can be cashed in on high value choices. Even if they don’t, unprotected first-round picks carry enormous trade value in a league where picks are most valuable before they’re made. Griff did well here, especially considering the Celtics balked at the last minute.

This is very bad for the Celtics, but it’s not a total disaster. It’s still bad though.

For the last few years the Celtics have been hovering around AD, loading up on picks and other assets to use in an eventual blockbuster. The letters AD were whispered around the Garden so frequently it was as if they were attempting to speak it into existence as an inevitability.

And so Danny Ainge built the Celtics on parallel tracks. On the one side was a competitive team with a penchant for overachieving, and on the other was a locomotive filled with assets hurtling toward New Orleans. Where one began and the other ended made for an occasionally uncomfortable existence, but it was generally understood that the team was a means to an end, and that endpoint was Anthony Davis.

That was never more evident than the decision to acquire Kyrie Irving from Cleveland. Not only was Kyrie an exceptional player, he was also exactly the kind of personality that the C’s envisioning bringing other players to Boston. Like Anthony Davis.

That all changed during a wild February sequence when AD demanded a trade and Kyrie backed away from his verbal promise to re-sign. The Celtics proceeded to implode and all those years of careful planning and asset hoarding went by the wayside.

Irving is almost certainly gone after a bizarre season that saw him publicly blame his younger teammates for not living up to his standard. It ended with his oddly disengaged postseason performance. “Who cares,” indeed. The Celtics held out hope that a pairing with AD would swing Kyrie back to Boston, but even that appeared to hold little promise. After all that, the Celtics are left with neither.

This is bad, really bad. It’s not a complete disaster, however. Had Ainge gutted the roster only to see Kyrie sign with Brooklyn and AD opt out after a year ... that would have been a disaster. That he blinked was a win for agent Rich Paul, who spent the last few months telling everyone that AD would not be long for the parquet.

Instead, Ainge will enter the offseason with a roster that includes Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart along with Gordon Hayward and Aron Baynes. They would like to bring Al Horford back into the fold and maybe now there’s room for free agents like Marcus Morris and even Terry Rozier to return.

That’s not a contender necessarily, but it’s still the guts of a team that went all the way to Game 7 conference finals just over a year ago. It’s also the one that nearly lost in the first round to Milwaukee and has seen the rest of the conference load up on star power.

Tatum and Brown hold the key. Their developments were stunted by Irving’s arrival and all of last season’s weirdness. Getting them back on track is vital if Boston is going to contend with this core. Still, this team needs more talent and Ainge still has all those draft assets to pursue another disgruntled young veteran star. (Bradley Beal, maybe?)

No matter who Ainge is able to get, it won’t be of the order and magnitude of Anthony Davis. Those kind of players don’t come around very often and this was yet another opportunity lost. They’ve been roasted in the past for not pulling the trigger on trades for players like Leonard, George, and Jimmy Butler. Most of those non-moves worked out just fine. Still, AD was supposed to change all that and now AD is gone too.

It’s been a very strange few years in Boston. Maybe now they can focus on what they have instead of what they hope to acquire.

[bulbsanta06-blog]

30 ROY candidates for 2019 -- 1 for each team

On Monday, Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna Jr. were named Rookie of the Year in the American and National Leagues, respectively. But they were far from the only first-year players to make an impact in the big leagues in 2018.

It would be difficult to find a team in the history of the modern game who went through an entire season without needing to use its farm system. Sometimes, jobs are given to rookies on Opening Day, as was the case with Ohtani and the Angels. Other times, a player has to wait to be called up to make an impact, just like Acuna did with the Braves.

In 2018, both prospects entered the season as Rookie of the Year contenders, if not front-runners, in each league. But sometimes Rookies of the Year come on unexpectedly. With that in mind, here is a potential ROY candidate from each organization.

AL East

Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B There's a strong case to made that Guerrero, MLB Pipeline's No. 1 overall prospect, should have reached the Majors last season, even with the Blue Jays' struggles. But he didn't and ultimately finished with an absurd .381/.437/.636 line and 20 home runs while reaching Triple-A at age 19. His bat is 100 percent ready for the highest level, and once there, Guerrero is a candidate to run away with top rookie honors in the AL, regardless of when he arrives.

Video: EAST@WEST: Guerrero Jr. doubles, advances on error

Orioles: Yusniel Diaz, OF The Orioles' key acquisition in the deadline deal that sent Manny Machado to Hollywood, Diaz is yet to tap into his above-average raw power but has a good idea of what he's doing at the plate, as evidenced by his .285/.392/.449 slash line and 11-homer last season in Double-A. Some other internal options may get first crack in either right or left field as the Orioles rebuild, but Diaz should become an everyday guy for them before long.

Rays: Brandon Lowe, 2B Lowe struggled initially upon reaching the Majors, going 0-for-19 following his debut on Aug. 5. After that, however, he slashed .273/.357/.527 with six homers in 37 games to finish the year with a career-high 28 home runs between Double-A, Triple-A and MLB. He also finished with 129 at-bats, leaving him two ABs short of exhausting his rookie eligibility. Like so many young Rays players, Lowe has the defensive versatility that could make him a near regular for Tampa Bay in 2019.

Red Sox: Michael Chavis, 3B The defending World Series champions have a depleted farm system and few opportunities at the big league level. One of the better power-hitting prospects in the upper Minors, Chavis could contribute if Rafael Devers struggles again or the need for a right-handed-hitting first baseman arises.

Yankees: Justus Sheffield, LHP The Yankees' greatest need is starting pitching, and Sheffield should crack the Opening Day rotation. His fastball, slider and changeup all can be three plus pitches, so it won't be a shock if he's New York's second-best starter after Luis Severino.

Video: Mayo gives some 2019 AL Rookie of the Year contenders

AL Central

Indians: Yu Chang, SS Though he continues to face an uphill battle towards carving out a spot in Cleveland's infield, Chang, a member of the Tribe's 40-man roster, saw increased reps at third base during the regular season and regular time there in the Arizona Fall League, suggesting the hot corner could be his path of least resistance. He has the hitting ability and raw power to profile there, as well as the defensive versatility to handle a utility role.

Royals: Nicky Lopez, SS/2B Lopez is blocked at the moment by Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi, but he's also sound in all phases of the game and has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. He should open the season in nothing less than a utility role and should claim at least semi-regular at-bats.

Tigers: Christin Stewart, OF He's hit at least 25 homers in each of his three full seasons of pro ball and hit a pair of homers in 60 big league at-bats this past September. Stewart has improved his overall approach, drawing a lot more walks, while still hitting balls out of the park, something that should continue with a full-time gig in Detroit next season.

Twins: Stephen Gonsalves, RHP The left-hander didn't fare well during his first taste of the big leagues in 2018, but he had a fantastic year, mostly in Triple-A, finishing second in the system in ERA and fifth in strikeouts, while keeping hitters to a combined .184 BAA. Gonsalves' upside might be limited, but he's ready to be a mid-rotation starter.

White Sox: Eloy Jimenez, OF If anyone can challenge Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero for the title of best offensive prospect in baseball, it's Jimenez. Ready last summer but kept in the Minors for service-time considerations, he'll be the foundation the White Sox build their lineup around.

Watch: Jimenez crushes 12th homer for Charlotte

AL West

Athletics: Jesus Luzardo, LHP Luzardo nearly reached the Majors in 2018 in what was his first full pro campaign as well as his first fully healthy, unimpeded season since his Tommy John surgery in mid-2016. Altogether, the left-hander (in his age-20 season) compiled a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 129 strikeouts and 30 walks in 109 1/3 innings while ascending from Class A Advanced to Triple-A. The A's will be without many of the starting pitchers that were lost due to injuries last season, so expect Luzardo to receive an earnest look during spring training.

Angels: Griffin Canning, RHP The UCLA product projected as an advanced college arm and lived up to that advanced billing, racing all the way to Triple-A in his first full season. His four-pitch mix with excellent command allowed him to miss bats all the way up the ladder and is why he is just about ready to hit the Angels' rotation.

Astros: Kyle Tucker, OF The No. 5 overall pick in the 2015 Draft, Tucker has recorded back-to-back 20-20 seasons in the upper Minors. His Triple-A line (.332/.400/.590) is much more representative of his upside than the numbers from his big league debut (.141/.236/.203).

Watch: Tucker crushes game-tying homer

Mariners: Wyatt Mills, RHP Viewed by scouts as a potential fast-riser when the Mariners took him in the third round of the 2017 Draft, Mills, 23, was just that in his first full season as he reached Double-A and followed it with an impressive turn in the Arizona Fall League. With right-handed delivery and profile that resembles Steve Cisheck's as well as comparable stuff, Mills has all the ingredients needed to become an impactful bullpen piece in 2019.

Rangers: Yohander Mendez, LHP Mendez's prospect luster has dimmed a bit over the last two years, yet that won't prevent him from fitting in the middle of the Rangers' rotation. He still has a quality changeup but needs to refine his command and breaking ball.

NL East

Braves: Touki Tousssaint, RHP The Braves have scores of young pitchers who could contend for Rookie of the Year honors next season. Toussaint gets the nod because of the pure stuff that helped him lead the system in ERA and strikeouts and because of how well his big league debut went, earning him a spot on the postseason roster.

Video: Mayo on potential 2019 NL Rookie of Year candidates

Marlins: Victor Mesa, OF While there currently are quite a few unknowns with Mesa, whom Miami signed for $5.5 million on Oct. 22, the consensus is that the 22-year-old outfielder shouldn't require all too much seasoning in the Minor Leagues after his success in Cuba's Serie Nacional. His plus defense in center field gives him a high floor in the big leagues, and any offensive contributions that surpass expectations could make him a ROY candidate.

Phillies: Ranger Suarez, LHP Suarez made four uneven appearances with Philadelphia in 2018, reaching the big leagues before he turned 23, and he's the kind of smart left-hander who will learn and make adjustments. He's moved very quickly since starting the 2017 season in A ball and should fit nicely into the back end of the young Phillies rotation.

Nationals: Victor Robles, OF Robles has taken second chair to teenage superstar Juan Soto in the Nationals' long-term outfield outlook with good reason. Yet, the future remains incredibly bright for the now 21-year-old center fielder, who hit .288/.348/.525 with three homers and three steals over 21 games with the Nats after a right elbow injury cost him much of the Minor League season. That Robles is the club's projected Opening Day center fielder at the moment makes him a preseason ROY favorite in the NL.

Watch: Robles triples on four-hit night

Mets: Peter Alonso, 1B New Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen has said he isn't opposed to having Alonso start the year in New York, and for good reason. All the first baseman did in 2018 is tie for the Minor League lead in homers, while leading it outright in RBIs. More power was on display in the AFL, and he has nothing left to prove in the Minors.

NL Central

Brewers: Keston Hiura, 2B The best hitter from the 2017 Draft class raked his way up to Double-A in his first full season, ultimately hitting .293/.357/.464 with 52 extra-base hits including 13 homers, and has been equally impressive in the Arizona Fall League, seemingly leaving him on the cusp of entering the Majors in'19. His knack for squaring up the baseball with authority to all fields is a truly special trait -- one that could make him a key Brewers run producer for a long time.

Cardinals: Dakota Hudson, RHP Aside from some command issues (18 BB in 27 1/3 IP), Hudson was effective in relief for the big league club in 2018. It's a crowded rotation in St. Louis, so a relief gig might be his best full-time entry for the time being where his extreme ground-ball rate (2.03 GO/AO in his Minor League career) would play well.

Cubs: Duane Underwood, RHP Underwood still needs some polish but was more aggressive and consistent in 2018 than he had been in years past. With a 92-97 mph fastball and a curveball that shows flashes of becoming a plus pitch, he could contribute in the bullpen and possibly the rotation.

Pirates: Mitch Keller, RHP The Pirates often are cautious with their young pitching prospects, but look for Keller to push them hard in 2019. After struggling upon first reaching Triple-A at age 22, the right-hander then had a 2.86 ERA in August. Room will have to be made in Pittsburgh's rotation, but Keller will be ready to jump through it once the door is opened.

Watch: Keller records 10th K

Reds: Nick Senzel, INF A finger injury, not to mention a bout with vertigo, greatly shortened his 2018 season, and that likely kept the No. 2 pick in the 2016 Draft from getting called up this past season. He's played several positions and was working on the outfield at instructs this fall to make sure there's a spot for his advanced bat in the big league lineup in 2019.

NL West

D-backs: Taylor Widener, RHP Widener has made a very successful transition from reliever to starter and has put his 2015 elbow surgery in his rear-view mirror with two successful, and healthy, seasons in 2017 and 2018. This last year was his first with the D-backs and he led the system in ERA and strikeouts, while holding Southern League hitters to a .197 batting average against.

Dodgers: Alex Verdugo, OF One of the best pure hitters in the Minors, Verdugo also offers developing power, a strong arm and the ability to play anywhere in the outfield. The only thing holding him back from being a slam-dunk Rookie of the Year candidate is a clear opening in the crowded Dodgers lineup.

Giants: Chris Shaw, OF The best power hitter in the Giants system, Shaw made his first big league home run a tape-measure shot: 468 feet off a Seunghwan Oh slider. As of now, he looks like the frontrunner to start in left field for San Francisco.

Padres: Luis Urias, 2B/SS Urias reached the Majors late in August and showed that he can do a little bit of everything before a groin injury prematurely ended his season after just 12 games. Assuming he's on the Padres' Opening Day roster, the 21-year-old could have an early advantage in the ROY based his ability to hit near the top of an order and make everyday contributions on both sides of the ball.

Rockies: Brendan Rodgers, SS With DJ LeMahieu set to depart as a free agent, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2015 Draft is ready to replace him at second base. He has more offensive potential than most middle infielders and the versatility to play anywhere in the infield that he's needed.

Watch: Rodger hammers a solo blast

Source: https://www.mlb.com/news/each-teams-top-2019-rookie-of-year-candidate/c-300739582

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Your Complete Eagles and Saints Playoff Betting Preview

The Eagles and Saints will take the field on Sunday afternoon in New Orleans with a trip to the NFC Championship Game at stake, and this showdown is not without plenty of storylines. Alvin Kamara’s borderline obsessive anti-Eagles shit-talking, ski mask wars, the continuation of Nick Foles flashing his sizable poise and Sean Payton’s cash stacks locker room stunt have combined to give this game no shortage of drama. Juicy context aside, the main question for fans and bettors is this—will the highly-anticipated rematch between these two teams be any different than the first meeting? Much has changed for both squads since the November beat down in which the Saints blew the Eagles out of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in a 48-7 rout, so let’s unpack the intangibles, trends, and matchups in search of identifying the winning side.

It Has Happened Before

The most difficult thing about betting on the Eagles in this one is that those who back the team with a rooting or betting interest watched the sum of all fears play out before them in that blowout loss. It’s easy to say, “Well, this time around the Eagles have Foles, it’s the postseason, they have a totally different defense, different vibe, etc.” While all of that may be true, such a thorough ass-kicking understandably creates natural pause. Will those changes bridge a 41-point gap?

Alvin Kamara was NOT CAPPIN

when he said the Saints would’ve BEAT TF outta the Eagles last szn

pic.twitter.com/78uOvpo1w1

— VERSACEBOYENT (@VersaceBoyEnt2) November 19, 2018

The first thing to consider is that regular season outcomes aren’t necessarily reliable predictors of postseason outcomes. The Eagles need not look beyond their own playoff history for proof. In 2002, the Eagles handled the Buccaneers in October of the regular season, only to lose the postseason rematch three months later. It was the same story in 2008 when the Eagles obliterated the Cardinals on Thanksgiving night in a 28-point win before going on to lose the NFC Championship Game in Arizona as a 3.5-point road favorite.

We have also seen the Saints stumble in the postseason despite having great expectations. Consider that in 2011 New Orleans racked up 13 wins on their way to winning the NFC South, but then went on to lose to the 49ers in the NFC Divisional Round as a road favorite. The Saints scored at least 40 points in their previous four contests leading up to that game, and Drew Brees threw for 5,476 yards and 46 touchdowns that season. None of it mattered.  In fact, the Saints have failed to even reach the NFC Championship Game in any of their four subsequent postseason trips after their 2009 Super Bowl season.

While it’s not often that a team loses by 40 points and then gets a shot at a playoff rematch, there is precedent of revenge in this situation. In 2010, the Jets traveled to Gillette Stadium and were railroaded by the Patriots in a 45-3 shelling, but went back to Foxborough the following month and won to advance to the AFC Championship Game. To reiterate, Mark Sanchez beat Tom Brady. In the playoffs. And while this is the only time in NFL history that a team lost a regular season game by 40+ points and then scored postseason revenge, I’m not sure that an Eagles win requires an act of God. Yeah, the odds are long for the Eagles this week, but since when does that matter to them?

The Eagles appear to be a markedly better team this time around. Leading into the first matchup, the defending champs looked unsteady, having failed to win back-to-back games at that point in the season. The Eagles were reeling, coming off a surprising loss at home as a big favorite over the Cowboys. Fast-forward nearly two months and they are winners of four-straight and six of their last seven games. There is a new quarterback, and with him, it would seem there’s also a new feel and confidence about the team, but the Eagles’ transformation isn’t just about mojo or magic.

The NFL officially changes Cody Parkey's missed field goal to a blocked kick by Treyvon Hester

(via @Eagles)pic.twitter.com/IdMCp65W5B

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 7, 2019

OK. Maybe there’s just a little magic. But let’s look at what else is different.

Defensive Improvement

Consider the evolution of Jim Schwartz’s defense. One thing that jumps off the page about the first meeting was the performance of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. The two backs combined for 29 carries and 174 yards. Ezekiel Elliott gashed a hemorrhaging Eagles’ front for 151 yards the previous week. Compare those results with what opposing backs have done against the Eagles over the last four games: 48 carries for 118 yards. That’s it.

Last week, Chicago’s Jordan Howard was held to only 35 yards on 10 carries while the Eagles effectively eliminated the Bears’ most dangerous offensive weapon in Tarik Cohen. That type of effort simply would not have happened six weeks ago. Part of this improvement can be attributed to the continued high-level play of safety Malcom Jenkins and the recent improved performance of players like linebacker Nigel Bradham and cornerback Cre’Von LeBlanc, but the other part is that the personnel is simply better now.

Chandon Sullivan and De’Vante Bausby played a combined 50 snaps in the first meeting, neither player is any longer on the active roster. Sidney Jones, who was some combination of injured and plain awful in that game, also isn’t expected to play (though he did appear at practice Thursday). The Eagles’ secondary, while still a vulnerable group that figures to struggle some on Sunday, has benefited in recent weeks from the late-season growth of Maddox and better play of Rasul Douglas.

Offensive Improvements

At the time of the first meeting, the Saints were averaging 14.7 more points per game than the Eagles, but get this–over each of the two teams’ past seven games, it’s the Eagles (25.4 ppg) that are actually outscoring the Saints (24.8 ppg). Go figure. And on that note, there’s been substantial improvement in terms of the Eagles’ passing output during that stretch:

First 10 games: 68.8 completion percentage, 95.7 passer rating, 3.1 sacks allowed per game, 20.5 points per game

Last 7 games: 71.7 completion percentage, 104.8 passer rating, 1.4 sacks allowed per game, 1.4 sacks allowed per game, 25.4 points per game

I’m not going to waste time here debating the merits of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles. I think everybody has had enough of that exercise, so whatever amount of this increased output you want to chalk up to the quarterback switch is on you. Beyond quarterback play, the return of Darren Sproles and improved play by the Eagles’ offensive line have each made a huge difference. You have probably heard by now that the unit held Aaron Donald, J.J. Watt, and Khalil Mack to a combined 0 sacks, but it’s worth repeating and illustrates just how good the group has been. They will need a similar performance this week against Cameron Jordan and a formidable Saints defense has generated 49 sacks this season.

Very much a key to this game will be the Eagles’ ability to sustain drives. They were only 3-10 on 3rd down conversions in the first matchup and were 0-2 on fourth down. The Eagles were 6-13 on 3rd down and 1-1 on 4th down a week ago against the Bears’ top-ranked defense.

Carson Wentz to Golden Tate after scoring the 4th and goal touchdown:

“That route was NASTY!”

pic.twitter.com/S8bkuuU3D7

— Eagles Nation (1-0) (@PHLEaglesNation) January 9, 2019

If they can replicate a similar performance on do-or-die downs this week, they are going to find themselves in the game late.

Still Up Against It

Drew Brees started the season with 29 touchdown passes to only two interceptions over his first 11 games, but followed that hot start with only three touchdowns and three interceptions over his final four games. Still, it would probably be foolish to assume that Brees will be anything other than excellent on Sunday.

While there are plenty of reasons to feel good about the Eagles’ ability to pull an upset, it’s of particular concern that Brees has thrown 21 touchdowns and only one interception while averaging 9.5 yards per attempt in seven home games this season. The Saints’ firepower and talent should not be undersold. The Eagles are still up against it on Sunday afternoon.

The Action

Philadelphia opened as a consensus 10-point underdog, but that line has since been bet down, making the Saints an 8-point favorite at most sportsbooks. As of Thursday afternoon, 55% of the total point spread bets and 69% of the point spread money backs the Eagles. In terms of the total, 65% of the bets and an overwhelming 97% of the money is on the over.

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So where’s the value? Those looking to take the Eagles with the points can head to DraftKings, FanDuel, BetStarsNJ, or SugarHouse. All of New Jersey’s legal sports betting apps have the Eagles at +8 (-110). If you’re on the Saints, you can also get the same price (-110) at any of those books. Meanwhile, if you’re looking to grab the Eagles on the moneyline, you should head to FanDuel and get them at +330 because they are currently offering a considerably better payout than the competition.

Totals bettors on the over should head to DraftKings or SugarHouse and get it at 50.5 (-114), while those on the under can grab it at 51 (-110) with FanDuel or BetStarsNJ.

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Betting Trends to Know

Nick Foles is 10-2 overall as a starting quarterback in his second stint with the Eagles. He’s 6-1 straight-up and against the spread as an underdog, with the lone loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Cowboys last season. As a starter this season, he’s 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS. The loss came back in Week 2 when the Eagles lost their starting running back (Jay Ajayi) and a starting wide receiver (Mike Wallace) early on and were already without Alshon Jeffery. Foles completed 73% of his passes for 334 yards in that contest. He did have Josh Perkins, though…

Quite literally, Foles has been money in contests that either are, or essentially amount to elimination games over the past two seasons, going 7-0 in such games. Included in such wins are triumphs over the 10-6 Falcons, 13-3 Vikings, 13-3 Patriots, 13-3 Rams, 11-5 Texans, and 12-4 Bears. Not bad.

The Eagles are 5-4 ATS away from Lincoln Financial Field this season, including 5-2 ATS over their past seven contests. The Saints aren’t unbeatable at home, but they are damn good. Dating back to last season, New Orleans is 14-2 SU at home. The Saints are also 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome this season.

New Orleans had the NFL’s second best record against the number at 10-6 this season (behind only Chicago), but it was a bit of a roller-coaster ride for those backing the Saints. They failed to cash their first two games of the season before ripping off nine-consecutive covers. They are one of only three teams since 2003 to accomplish such a feat. They stumbled late, however, going 1-4 ATS to close the season. Surprisingly, that may not be a good thing for those backing the Eagles. The last nine teams that failed to cover in any of their final three games entering the postseason are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their first playoff game. In many cases, those teams covered the spread with ease. Also of concern for those backing the Eagles is Sean Payton’s 5-0 home playoff record and that New Orleans was both 3-1 SU and ATS in the regular season against 2018 postseason qualifiers.

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Over the past two seasons, underdogs are 15-1 ATS in the postseason. In last year’s divisional round, underdogs were 3-1 ATS and 2-2 SU. I do wonder if the market is about to correct itself. Arguments could be made for double-digit wins by any of the four favorites this weekend, but these the lines seem underdog friendly. Is this a trap? After all, this run on dogs can’t keep up. Can it?

Also of note, several sportsbooks have recently experienced an increase in the amount of moneyline bets on underdogs, and I would expect this trend to continue this week with the Eagles, Chargers, Colts, and Cowboys on the board. That said, the best possible outcome for most books will be if the favorites win outright but fail to cover. That’s something I could see playing out in multiple games this weekend.

Prediction

The Eagles have no doubt improved, but what about the Saints? Was their late season malaise a product of boredom, or was it a warning of what’s to come? Frankly, they haven’t played a crisp football game since Thanksgiving night. What’s more, three weeks will have passed since the Saints tried to win a football game. I expect that to have some impact early on.

I also happen to think Sean Payton is a bit of a fraud. He’s had a future Hall of Fame quarterback since he arrived in New Orleans in 2006 and has managed to win only a single title. Imagine this: Doug Pederson exists another 10 years as the Eagles head coach, but fails to win another championship. He’ll be crucified at that point, yet Payton is slurped by the media. At the very least, there is absolutely nothing to suggest that New Orleans has the coaching advantage this Sunday. I trust Doug Pederson to have this team physically, mentally, and emotionally prepared. And I trust Nick Foles—there’s simply no reason not to trust him. If the Eagles can survive the first 20 minutes and the raucous energy of the Superdome, something they did well in a hostile environment a week ago, I think they have a realistic chance to win the game outright. I’m going to grab the eight points and roll with the team that has been a historically excellent underdog.

Final score: Saints 26, Eagles 24

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