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newstfionline · 4 years ago

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Thursday, October 15, 2020

Teen well-being (The Atlantic) Teens who participated in a 1,523 respondent survey between May and July this year were assessed for various mental well-being measures including life satisfaction, happiness, depression symptoms and loneliness. Their responses were then compared to the results of the same survey in 2018, and much to the surprise of the researchers, the teens were pretty much on par, and the percentage of teens depressed or lonely was lower in 2020 than in 2018. This is not to say that teens escaped the malaise that gripped the nation, far from it: 63 percent were concerned about catching the virus, 27 percent said a parent lost their job, 29 percent knew someone who caught the virus. No, the reason for the shift is that those considerable sources of anxiety were compensated for by the fact that teens were finally sleeping the correct amount of time: in 2018, just 55 percent of teens slept seven or more hours a night, and this year 84 percent slept seven or more hours a night while school was in session.

Cruise ship dismantling booms after pandemic (Reuters) Business is booming at a sea dock in western Turkey, where five hulking cruise ships are being dismantled for scrap metal sales after the COVID-19 pandemic all but destroyed the industry, the head of a ship recyclers’ group said on Friday. Cruise ships were home to the some of the earliest clusters of COVID-19 as the pandemic spread globally early this year. In March, U.S. authorities issued a no-sail order for all cruise ships that remains in place. On Friday, dozens of workers stripped walls, windows, floors and railings from several vessels in the dock in Aliaga, a town 45 km north of Izmir on Turkey’s west coast. Three more ships are set to join those already being dismantled. Before the pandemic, Turkey’s ship-breaking yards typically handled cargo and container ships, Kamil Onal, chairman of a ship recycling industrialists’ association, told Reuters. “But after the pandemic, cruise ships changed course towards Aliaga in a very significant way,” he said of the town.

Europe tightens rules as virus surges (AP) Governments across Europe are ratcheting up restrictions to try to beat back a resurgence of the coronavirus that has sent new confirmed infections on the continent to their highest weekly level since the start of the pandemic. The World Health Organization said Tuesday there were more than 700,000 new COVID-19 cases reported in Europe last week, a jump of 34% from the previous week. Britain, France, Russia and Spain accounted for more than half of the new infections. Italy and France are restricting parties and putting limits on restaurants and bars. The Netherlands went further and ordered the closing of all bars and restaurants, And to discourage partying at home, it banned the sale of alcohol after 8 p.m. The Czech Republic is closing all schools until Nov. 2, while Latvia is ordering teenagers to switch to distance learning for a week. And Britain unveiled a three-tiered system for deciding what restrictions to impose, based on how severe the outbreak is in certain areas. Those moves reflect a new approach to containing the virus among governments wary of hurting already fragile economies. Officials are eager to avoid the total lockdowns they imposed in the spring that resulted in heavy job losses. Instead, they are relying on a patchwork of regional or targeted restrictions that have sometimes caused confusion and frustration by those affected. The U.N. health agency appeared to support the new approach, with WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic saying lockdowns should be a “last resort.”

With winter on the way and windows open, Europe’s students prepare for the cold (Washington Post) With winter on its way and coronavirus guidelines advising teachers to keep classroom windows open, students across Northern Europe are preparing for the chill by packing blankets in their school bags and layering up in warm clothing. There is increasingly a consensus among experts that good ventilation is one of the best ways to prevent the virus from spreading. Anthony Costello, a former director at the World Health Organization, said last month that children “can survive a bit of cold, and they’re going to have to, because ventilation is so important.” With temperatures in Germany frequently dropping to freezing, children in the city of Bochum are bracing for a crisp learning environment as officials advise teachers to open the windows for fresh air every 20 minutes. Children have been told to bring blankets and wrap up. Although some schools struggle with the advice that the cold air needs to be brought in, schools in Denmark and other Nordic education systems are taking lessons—and young students—outside. More than half of about 200 Norwegian schools surveyed in a poll by researchers Ulrich Dettweiler and Gabriele Lauterbach last month said they were holding more classes outdoors—a move some already had planned on that was further propelled by the pandemic.

Belarusian crisis escalates (Foreign Policy) Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has demanded that President Aleksandr Lukashenko resign by Oct. 25 or face nationwide strikes. “[On] Oct. 26, all enterprises will begin a strike,” she said in a statement, “all roads will be blocked, state-owned stores will no longer have any sales.” Tikhanovskaya is hugely popular among protesters but fled to Lithuania in the aftermath of the controversial Aug. 9 election, which saw Lukashenko win by a landslide amid allegations of electoral fraud. Tikhanovskaya’s ultimatum is part of a wider escalation of tensions between Lukashenko and anti-government protesters. On Monday, the government authorized police to use lethal force against protesters after the ninth consecutive Sunday of massive protests in the capital of Minsk.

For Nagorno-Karabakh’s Dueling Sides, Living Together Is ‘Impossible’ (NYT) Armenians and Azerbaijanis lived side by side in the Soviet days, until conflict over the disputed mountain territory called Nagorno-Karabakh exploded in the late 1980s into riots, expulsions and a yearslong war. The violence left personal wounds festering for decades, as stubborn as the tan and gray stone ruins of Azerbaijani villages still scattered in the Armenian countryside. In the last two weeks, those unhealed scars have erupted into a modern-day conflagration of trench warfare, drone strikes and artillery bombardments. More than 500 Armenian soldiers have died, along with scores of civilians and an unknown number of Azerbaijanis. A cease-fire brokered in Moscow over the weekend has failed to hold, and President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan has threatened a further escalation of his offensive. For the region’s populace, the war is a continuation of on-off strife over both territory and history, with roots going back more than a century. The days when the Soviet Union kept a lid on such conflicts, and Azerbaijanis and Armenians mostly lived together in peace, feel like an irrevocably lost world. “Each wants to say that he is the master of this land,” said one refugee who left Azerbaijan in 1989. “To live together is, put simply, impossible.”

China’s Xi lays out plan to build Shenzhen into global rival to troubled Hong Kong (Washington Post) Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced plans to make Shenzhen an international trade hub and talent center, setting up the mainland metropolis as a business alternative to its politically troubled neighbor, Hong Kong. In a speech on Wednesday, Xi called for Shenzhen to take the lead in developing high-value innovative industries and drawing international talent. He said Shenzhen will develop its finance sector and international trade capabilities—which are Hong Kong’s economic strengths. The top-level support for Shenzhen was a clear message for Hong Kong, which lies just across a river from Shenzhen, said Victor Gao, a chair professor at China’s Soochow University and a former Foreign Ministry official. “If you do not have stability, if you are caught up in revolution, or great turmoil, or anarchy, then you will lose out on whatever advantages and resources you may have previously had,” Gao said. “Then your economic development will reverse course.” Hong Kong, which was supposed to enjoy self-governance in most of its affairs until 2047, has become a thorn in Beijing’s side because of large-scale public protests against China’s tightening control.

Japan’s navy adapts to the digital generation (Times of London) Japan’s navy is to launch a new, scaled down warship to compensate for a drop in recruitment among young people who cannot tolerate long periods at sea without access to their smartphones. The 30FFM frigate is designed for a crew of about 90 sailors, half that of the older vessels. The smaller crews reflect the crisis in recruitment faced by the Maritime Self-Defense Forces. The navy is struggling to fulfill its recruitment quotas, and in 2018 reached only 60 per cent of its target. In that year, it raised the upper age limit for recruits from 26 to 32. It has also taken steps to overcome the principal disincentive to would-be sailors—enforced isolation from the outside world. Sailors can now send emails from their mobile phones and have limited wireless internet access.

Thailand declares emergency after unprecedented protest (AP) Thai authorities declared a strict new state of emergency for the capital on Thursday, a day after a student-led protest against the country’s traditional establishment saw an extraordinary moment in which demonstrators heckled a royal motorcade. After the pre-dawn declaration, riot police moved in to clear out demonstrators who after a day of rallies and confrontation had gathered outside Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s office to push their demands, which include the former general’s stepping down, constitutional changes and reform of the monarchy. The protest Wednesday in Bangkok’s historic district, not far from glittering temples and royal palaces, was the third major gathering by student-led activists who have been pushing the boundaries of what is considered acceptable—and legal—language by publicly questioning the role of Thailand’s monarchy in the nation’s power structure.

Southeast Asia flood deaths near 40 as new storm approaches (Reuters) Nearly 40 people have died in Vietnam and Cambodia and scores more were missing, including rescuers, due to prolonged heavy rain and flash flooding as tropical storm Nangka edged towards the Vietnamese coast on Tuesday. Heavy rains since early October have caused deadly floods and landslides in several provinces in central Vietnam and displaced thousands of people in western Cambodia, officials and state media said. The floods are expected to worsen over the coming days, with tropical storm Nangka forecast to dump more rain as it makes landfall in Vietnam on Wednesday.

Coronavirus lockdown 2.0 deepens divisions in Israel (AP) When Israel went into lockdown last spring, Jerusalem pub owner Leon Shvartz moved quickly to save his business—shifting to a delivery and takeaway model that kept him afloat throughout the summer. Then came the second lockdown. With restaurants and shops shuttered again, Shvartz’s business is struggling to survive. He has laid off 16 of his 17 employees. By contrast, Israeli software maker Bizzabo, which operates in the hard-hit conference-management sector, quickly reinvented itself last spring by offering “virtual events.” It has more than doubled its sales and is expanding its workforce. Such tales of boom and bust reflect Israel’s growing “digital divide.” Even before the pandemic, Israel had one of the largest income gaps and poverty rates among developed economies, with a few high earners, mostly in the lucrative high-tech sector, while many Israelis barely get by as civil servants, in service industries or as small business owners. Those gaps have widened as the second nationwide lockdown, imposed last month, dealt a new blow to an economy already hit hard by the first round of restrictions. The fallout from the pandemic has also deepened long-simmering divisions among Israeli Jews, pitting a largely secular majority against a powerful ultra-Orthodox minority.

#headlines #news

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umassdonahueinstitute · 5 years ago

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Worldwide check-ins from Civic Initiative alumni during the COVID-19 epidemic (part 1)

Mike Hannahan, director of the UMass Civic Initiative, asked alumni last week about how the COVID-19 pandemic was affecting them and what they were doing to take care of themselves during this unprecedented time across the world. Here are there responses, categorized by country.

The responses are to two questions: How has the coronavirus changed your life? How are you taking care of yourself?

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Italy

Locked at home under "house arrest" on my own. No contagion, at least no symptoms. Family split, I am in Lombardy, the most dangerous place in the world, sister in Lisbon, parents in Taranto. E-teaching is a nightmare, always working in front of the computer.

Going out every 2/3 weeks to buy food, wearing gloves. No face mask, I can't find them anywhere, putting a scarf on my nose and mouth, like a far West outlaw man.

Argentina

Today we are in a complete quarantine, we cannot go out, unless we go to the market or the pharmacy. We have to be in our homes, not going to work or we could go to prison. It's complicated but it's a sacrifice for a good cause.

We cannot complain if we are at home with food and internet. It's hard but not impossible, it could be worst. We don't have to forget that is the only way we could help to stop the virus. Just stay at home. We are not being asked to go to war, to risk our lives, we are being asked just to stay with our family. Call your friends if you miss them, call your boyfriend, but do not minimize what you could cause if you go out of your house.

Turkey

Materially not much, I and my family are in good health, but mentally I am devastated by this development. As a professor of international relations, I observe very extraordinary/unusual developments and cases in my country and the world at large. I ask and wonder about many consequences of this coronavirus problem, which I call it as humanity's ontological war against the virus and the nature in general. In this respect we in Turkey also have extraordinary measures and policies: schools and universities are closed; distance learning started first time; travel, meeting, entertainment, even shops and many other places are restricted or closed. In short, our life is getting miserable and scary like in the "American horror films"!

The first and the most important thing is that I and my family isolated ourselves from society and even our larger family connections, locked into home except for shopping. But, thanks to classical and social media such as Twitter, we are strongly engaged with the external world, learning things about and sharing my views with the world. Consequently, we are living in a strange world in many ways: coronavirus threatens us, but we struggle against, definitely defeat it.

Hungary

I am distancing... It is a state of emergency from March 12th in Hungary. The borders are closed for foreigners. More and more of the clothing, furniture and similar stores are closing, except for pharmacies, grocery stores, gas stations and tobacco shops. People can still go to work (if they are not in home office). My university switched to remote learning. However, we don't have clear rules for distance learning. So, I basically preparing informative slides with helping docs and video lectures in Camtasia (6-10 minutes each).

I was like a person in the joke: on the first day, I found a woman on my couch. (It turned out that she's my wife. She is nice.) More seriously, I am working from home. Luckily my wife, too. Our kid's kindergarten is closed since Monday (16th). So we are together. Since it is not mandatory yet to be in our homes, I try to take a walk every day. If I see somebody then I go to the other side of the street. We are cooking every day and in general, we try to have a daily schedule. The life is pretty much the same as it was in Yugoslavia/Serbia during the NATO bombing in 1999. A daily schedule could help a lot to get back in normal when this 'shutdown' is over.

Pakistan

You may know, I am Resident of Internal Medicine leading to specialty now at HMC Peshawar, one of the prime teaching hospital, at the capital city of our province Khyber Pukhtunkhwa. I am actively involved in the health policy and advocacy for doctors’ rights as well. Currently, I represent the Provincial Doctors Association Khyber Pukhtunkhwa as official spokesperson and Member Executive council.

I am part of Corona (COVID-19) Combat Team of my hospital and Provincial policy board. The aim of both of the above is to contain the disease and treat the already affected ones. I was very instrumental in the process of devising a policy and now to accomplish what has been planned to combat this highly infective and deadly virus. In short, I am among the few to face and fight this pandemic in the front lines.

How am I taking care of myself? The answer to the above question is simple, our government doesn't have many resources. The PPE's (Personal Protection Equipment) are missing. There are a very limited number of masks, goggles and protective gowns available. Most doctors are working without any protection. One of our doctors just died today at Gilgit, Dr. Osama. Our President of Association is isolated in quarantine as he dealt a patient suspected case of the virus with a positive travel history of China which later on come out to be a positive case after PCR testing. Many doctors are exposed due to the non-availability of PPEs. Yesterday, I did a press conference and demanded the Provincial government to provide PPEs to all the health staff working in the ERs and OPD clinics.

Australia

I'm currently living in Sydney, Australia. One month ago I started to work as a Program Coordinator at Generation Australia, a non-for- profit that trains unemployed people to get jobs. Since last week all trainings were switched to on-line learning. So I work from home and all the students study from home. Apart from that, Australia has closed its borders for all people who are not Australians. So if I go out even to see my family back in Argentia, I won't be able to get in again anytime soon. That would mean losing my job.

I wash my hands very frequently and try to avoid crowded places and taking public transport.

Pakistan

The coronavirus is turning out to be surprising us with a new challenge every day. The government is saying numbers increasing day by day. For a person who has to work to earn, the uncertainty and now the lockdown is making her/him thinking how s/he will be managing things for the future. The lockdown is said to be for 10 to 14 days, but experts are suggesting that it can be prolonged to months and even for a year. The biggest challenge we are facing is uncertainty, no one knows what to expect and what to plan for the coming days which surely can be predicted as very challenging.

I personally am looking into and following the guidelines shared by the WHO, which starts from regular handwashing, not touching face and avoiding public places as much as possible. I am looking forward to social distancing, self-isolating myself and with my family until the situation becomes normal again.

India

I as teacher and responsible citizen was always telling in classrooms and talks outside for years maintain personal hygiene...keep ur surroundings clean...wash hands whenever u have to eat anything...but most of the people in India doesn’t bother unless some epidemic breaks out. After that, its life as usual...spitting, urinating, keeping surroundings unclean are common sights on the roads here... No government can do anything if people in that society doesn’t have self-health discipline. I as warden and vice-principal saw that 1000 students under my control are asked to vacate hostels 2 days back and come back on 31st March. Told the students not to join weddings and festival gatherings...warned them not come with some virus when they return to campus later this month

As I am a sportsman too, maintain the utmost health discipline from the beginning. I must thank my parents for this. Alternate days tennis...mask when I go out...wash hands as frequently as possible as water is a scarce resource in our country.

England

I am in London as I moved here 2 years ago but as you know all my family and friends in Turkey hence, it was a very hard decision for me to choice staying here...It has changed my life a lot already. My husband and I are working from home now. We tried to stay at home as much as we can even before the government advice. I am still frustrated with Boris for his very late decision to close schools, bars, pubs ext. I am a face-to-face major gift fundraiser, therefore, now we need to find out new ways how my role can evolve with the current situation.

In terms of taking care of myself, as I said we go out only for a walk or market shopping. Thank God, we are healthy and due to at-home physical activities, having enough sleep and ext. I feel good physically. However, it is challenging to keep sane and calm mentally.

I am terrified to get a coronavirus as NHS is not capable of taking care of any patients and we are expected to get well at home. Also, I am very concerned for my family and friends since the rates in Turkey is also increasing rapidly. At last, having thought of losing them and not being able to see them again is killing me, that's my biggest fear at this moment. Other than that I am fine writing my dissertation, working, cooking, painting at home to keep myself busy.

Iraq

We registered more than 200 cases with 17 deaths and the spread is getting serious in our country, so there was a curfew forced by the government so we are staying home and that was so boring at first. I used to go out like every day and this is a big challenge for me to stay home. We have to adhere to our own benefit and the bright side is we are spending much more time with our families, so it won't be worse than catching the infection.

Some measures I'm taking to protect myself and family is by encouraging them to stay home, using some chemicals to fumigate the house, and when I go out for necessities I use good protection with face mask and gloves and using alcohol frequently.

My final word is to encourage everyone to stay home and enjoy what's in your houses, you will be surprised with the things you can do in your place.

Finland

Finland is in lockdown since 18 March 2020. I am in self-quarantine since 14 March after arriving from a one week trip to Belarus back to Finland that day. I live with my husband in Joensuu, Eastern Finland where epidemics have not hit as yet. However, we are moving to our new flat in Helsinki 30 March which is now a stressful and exiting situations in the present circumstances.

In Finland there is a strong suggestion to stay at home and reduce all social contacts. So, we live quietly and go for walks with our dog twice a day. Shops are open normally and in Finland the globally exceptional emergency supply work supports the trustworthy situation with foodstuff and pharmacies in such time of crisis (we are proud for that!).

My daughters are students and staying in their homes in Helsinki region. High Schools and universities are closed down and all people who can do distance work. So, all kinds of challenges and solutions for distance work and supporting those alone at home without face-to-face contacts are important at the moment.

The present lockdown is issued till 13 April. In Finland first death due to Corona took place yesterday. We have 500 reported Corona cases at the moment. The most serious concern is about those over 70 years old.

Cameroon

Although there is no nationwide lockdown, we are advised to stay at home, and to go out only if it is compulsiry. We had a very busy first semester. I reduce academic activities.

May God make us safe.

Pakistan

Watching the death toll rising around the globe has made me realize, how even at the peak of technology and billions of dollars at our disposal. To fight mother nature head-on is something we cannot do in one day. The virus is spreading exponentially in our country and it is sad that only a few hundred thousand are taking it seriously, while millions are making fun of it. This has made me take on another challenge which is to teach and aware people of the dangers of this virus. As our majority of the population is Muslim, we live our religion, so I am trying to relate the awareness with the Islamic concepts. Hopefully, by teaching through social media will benefit some and creates a chain reaction.

This is a global crisis and must be tackled with everything a human can do.

Be safe everyone, be helpful and empathetic.

Pakistan

Indeed this pandemic is a colossal test for the self and our collective character. Amidst the gloom of rising Covid-19, it’s understandable that every single person on this earth can be affected by it. It has a multidimensional impact at individual, national and international levels. This epidemic has changed my thinking patterns and make me more conscious of the philosophy of life. It is affecting my personal, professional and academic life. Actually, I was busy in the data collection of my postgraduate thesis; but unfortunately, I have to stop it. No doubt, it’s a challenge for “humanity”, the current situation is depressing and alarming but the indomitable human nature can deal with it. At the individual level, I am trying to isolate myself and my family; also, I am following all the authentic instructions by international(WHO) and national agencies(NIH) because, “health is wealth”. As a responsible community we should have to take serious precautions about this natural call. This is the crucial time to reflect back critically on ‘ourselves’ (self-purification) by evaluating the purpose and meaning of life. Hopefully, we will defeat this health war wisely, the required input from every policy stakeholder can act like a safety-chain for the entire human community. However-in proceeding years-it is clearly evident that there will be a neo-social change in transnationalism and the domestic policy arena.

Indonesia

This global pandemic has certainly changed my daily routine. My workplace has been conducted work from home regulation to protect the employer from the events. My works have been much in their field, where I need to work with stakeholders and community, but this situation changed our plan. Though it is hard to still conduct some work with the community since we prevent to do face to face activity, but this moment we gave a try in initiating an online platform. In how we teach people to occupy current technology. There are still many challenges as it might not effectively work with a community who were never exposed or experienced any technology. At this moment, I learn about the technology gap as well.

On the other hand, this global pandemic also got me to learn about such a complex system in dealing with a global pandemic. I learn to see the gap in the socio-economic class dynamics in the ocommunity. Moreover, to see the systematic failure in addressing the issue. It has never been this concerning to see the vulnerable groups (elders, disabled people, women, low-income family, etc.) would be the ones who got the most severe impact of this event. As a civic society, we might be so aware about this issue, but we don’t have much ‘power’ to create such a significant change in dealing with this virus. But, I see the crucial courage to push people in power through advocacy to take such an important action and commitment to make sure that everyone could be treated fairly during this emerging situation.

I am trying to have healthy lifestyle. I consume more vegetables, fruits and a balanced diet. I do regular workouts. Reading and listening to music for my free time. And I am trying to focus on my works too. It is a bit overwhelming to keep reading the news and update, sometimes it has been too complicated and frustrating. In this very uncertain situation, it is good to balance what I need to know and when to stop scrolling Twitter.

Pakistan

I was at my university when I got to know about the COVID-19 Pandemic. Our class finished before its usual time and we were asked to leave our class room quickly. When I came out of the room, we were informed that the university was closed for 15 days because of the coronavirus outbreak that has infected several people across Pakistan. It was very shocking for me because I was living my usual life. I was unaware of the occurrence of such an unexpected deadly virus causing a huge loss to humanity. We were overloaded with assignments, case studies, readings etc. I did not know anything about the pandemic at all or its horrendous effects on other countries. When I googled Covid-19, I felt so dreadful looking at its adverse effects in China, Italy, Iran and other countries. The most frightening part was how it spreads fast among people and now most of the world was suffering from it. The unsympathetic, horrific coronavirus changed my life as it brought so much uncertainty, confusion and worry with itself. Realizing that the virus has no vaccine or cure until now makes me so anxious and nervous. I spent last week constantly dreading about the future of the humanity. I am concerned about all the countries where so many people are illiterate and they are not aware of the seriousness of coronavirus and how lethal it could be to humans. I feel as if my life has become immobile. Amidst the chaotic situation, I cannot think about my future plans, dreams or goals. As a working woman, I used to work 8 hours as an English language instructor in a college and I would take post-graduate classes in the evening. Now, due to the COVID-19 outbreak, I am practicing self-isolation which made my life so dormant and passive. I miss my colleagues and friends. We cannot hang out like usual anymore. The news channels constantly update us about the rising number of coronavirus patients and how the situation is getting worst throughout the world. Mostly countries despite trying their best are experiencing worst circumstances. The situation is strange, stagnant, desperate and hopeless but realizing how China successfully came out of it gave me hope. Nowadays, I am focusing on how I can spread awareness regarding the coronavirus technologically. I am sharing and spreading coronavirus precautionary videos, voice messages, photos, text messages with people and groups. I miss my life before the coronavirus outbreak but I am concentrating on how I can help people amid the pandemic. My life and concerns have totally changed during the coronavirus outbreak. I have started focusing on the need of the hour which is to follow all the safety measures and to provide support to people through spreading awareness about safety measures and guiding them to be compassionate during this challenging time. I am trying my best to act as a responsible citizen and human in order to contribute my share in controlling the coronavirus outbreak.

I keep on washing my hands after every 20 to 30 minutes. I am more conscious and attentive when I go out for doing some inevitable tasks. Initially, I used hand sanitizer frequently but they got finished in the market which was troublesome. I ordered gloves for myself and now I use gloves whenever I go out. Furthermore, I have been using a mask for pollution and seasonal allergy so wearing a mask during the pandemic is not something tough for me. I started practicing self-isolation the day I got to know about precautionary measures which all of us have to take during the COVID-19 pandemic. Self-isolation which was boring at first as I used to be out till evening before the COVID-19 pandemic for work and evening classes. Now I spend most of my time reading, watching movies, playing indoor games, article writing, praying and working on my assignments. These activities keep me busy and I do not feel pessimistic or gloomy due to this sudden lifestyle change which was greatly depressing for me at the start. I am trying my best to act with complete responsibility as it does not only concern my life but many others too. We all have to try to break the chain in order to stop the spread of coronavirus. If we follow the precautionary measures, we can win this fight against this global pandemic. The restraint that we practice during this chaotic pandemic will help in restoring human life as it was before the coronavirus outbreak.

Iraqi Kurdistan

My city and all Kurdistan is under lockdown now. Because of the nature of my work, I am still allowed to go to work at my hospital, but pretty much almost all other non-essential businesses are closed. I hope this doesn't become the new normal.

I try to not go out and stay at home unless I really have to. At work, we take the necessary measures. All the doctors, nurses and hospital staff have to use personal protective equipment (PPE) to protect themselves.

Argentina

The quarantine has affected us all at a personal level, but the economic effect is also very significant. Work opportunities are more scarce and the near future seems complicated in that sense. Although what worries me most is how this will affect the people who depend on the informal economy. Governments from all over the world have to develop policies to support marginalized groups in this context. It is easy to shelter in place if you can fill your fridge, it is more difficult if you can't.

Besides following the publicly known instructions, I am also wearing a mask when I go buy groceries. Some say it protects you better from the virus and some say it doesn't, but everybody agrees on the fact that it is good for not spreading it. You never know how it will affect you or even if you have it without showing symptoms yet.

Ecuador

How has the coronavirus changed your life? Well, the university closes all installations and send students and professors to home. So, right now I am working at home and trying to fulfill all my duties until the beginning of the next semester. Besides by an order of the authorities, remain at home is compulsory and one just can go out to obtain supplies and medicines.

Since last Thursday I remain at home.

Australia

A few minor things such as football season being suspended, travel bans, pubs and cafes being closed, and limited availability in supermarkets of some things such as rice, pasta etc. Major disruption has involved the University of Tasmania stopping all face-to-face teaching (tutes and lectures) and lecturers transitioning to fully online teaching. Things will change in Tasmania when either a government decision to close schools is made, or schools make the decision independent of government.

I’m socially isolating and following advice about hygiene. I’m still going for a bike ride when I can to keep myself healthy

South Africa

COVID-19 has redefined my pattern of social interactions among peers. It has placed restrictions on my movement and keeps me at home and my desk. Unnecessary visits discarded and concentrate more on my research. Nevertheless, it has created an atmosphere of fear and panic. It is a time that has drawn me closer to God and sharing the gospel with friends. I explore the social media platforms to encourage people to put their trust in God in the face of a raging pandemic.

I take care of myself by improving personal hygiene and maintaining my food habits. I keep social distance having restricted my movements and contacts with people.

Ethiopia

I am deeply saddened by the death and suffering of thousands of people across the world. Here in my country, Ethiopia, the spread of the virus, according to official figures, is limited to a handful of people who contracted it while abroad. There is no report of domestic transmission so far. Nevertheless, schools are closed for two weeks (we are now into the second week) and classes are suspended for university students. As university instructors, we are supposed to help students study while at home but the problem is that we do not have the necessary preparations to do that. Though the spread of the virus is very limited the global situation is hitting the country very hard. The country is very dependent on exports and imports in the countries seriously affected by the virus. So, there is a shortage of important supplies such as sanitizers, alcohol, face masks and food items. So, people are turning to traditional ways of preventing epidemics. In fact, as we are yet to suffer from the spread of the virus, we are going to see the real reaction of the people in the immediate future. Our thoughts are with those who are suffering from the virus.

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libertariantaoist · 7 years ago

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I can understand why the ruling elite, broadly conceived to include the intel bureaucracy and military-industrial complex, has an interest in positing Russia as our enemy. The reasons are obvious enough. What I can’t understand is why common Americans would fall for it. They have everything to lose and nothing to gain from swallowing this line.

After all, the stakes are extremely high. The United States and Russia have thousands of nuclear warheads pointed at each other, and their forces are in close proximity in Syria. Yet major bipartisan elements of the U.S. government, including the intelligence bureaucracy, persist in aggravating tensions. The public is led to believe that the reason for the problems is the Russian attempt to interfere in the presidential election on behalf of Donald Trump. But that remains an allegation for which no evidence has been produced. It also doesn’t pass the smell test. For example, it is said that the diabolically clever Russians left their digital fingerprints all over the crime scene. It has also been “reported” that Russian President Vladimir Putin expected Hillary Clinton to win the election, but he interfered anyway so he could damage her presidency as payback for her having impugned the legitimacy of his own election. Think about that for a few minutes.

The absurdity of the election story has not stopped American politicians from recklessly charging the Russians with an “act of war.” Do these people realize what they are saying? (Considering the U.S. government’s record of interfering with other countries’ political systems, the politicians’ self-righteousness is downright laughable.)

Not coincidentally, Trump made cooperation with Russia a campaign theme. Such cooperation, of course, would be costly for civilian and military bureaucrats and government contractors. Yet even if Trump has corrupt business motives for favoring detente, it is still a good idea for the American people and the world.

So, are we witnessing what is being called a “soft coup” against the Trump administration? The thought is not so outlandish. Nor would it be the first time the intelligence bureaucracy has tried to interfere with East-West detente.

At the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union, a spokesman for Mikhail Gorbachev told some reporters from the West, “We have done the cruelest thing to you that we could possibly have done. We have deprived you of an enemy.” That insight explains a lot of what has happened ever since the Warsaw Pact dissolved in 1989 and the Soviet Union closed shop in 1991. It explains why, despite the historic collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, American presidents expanded NATO to Russia’s border, interfered with its political-economic system, and meddled in neighboring countries politically and militarily. America has 60,000 troops in Europe and it is placing military equipment on Russia’s border, while German and other NATO troops engage in war simulations. (Such actions were decried by George Kennan, the Russia scholar and diplomat, and Jack F. Matlock Jr., who was ambassador to the Soviet Union under Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush.)

I found that quote from Gennadi Gerasimov in an extraordinary 2016 article by conservative English journalist Peter Hitchens, “The Cold War Is Over.” It’s an article that ought to be read by all Americans, especially those who give any credence to what their (mis)leaders, (mis)representatives, and public (self-)servants — not to mention the news media — tell them daily. (I had the pleasure in the 1990s of dining with Hitchens at the Washington, D.C. home of his late brother, Christopher.)

Peter Hitchens was posted to Moscow for two years beginning in 1990, so he witnessed the remarkable transition toward normalcy. He is no fan of Vladimir Putin, and no advocate of a police state. He writes:

I view him [Putin] as a sinister tyrant. The rule of law is more or less absent under his rule. He operates a cunning and cynical policy toward the press. Criticism of the government is perfectly possible in small-circulation magazines and obscure radio stations, but quashed whenever it threatens the state and its controlled media. Several of the most serious allegations against Putin — alleged murders of journalists and politicians — have not been proven. Yet crimes like the death in prison (from horrible neglect) of Sergei Magnitsky, a lawyer and auditor who charged Russian officials with corruption, can be traced directly to Putin’s government, and are appalling enough by themselves.

His distaste for the police state, including armed cops, is displayed in his blog post “The First Casualty of Terrorism is Thought,” which he wrote in the wake of the recent terrorist attacks in London. To wit: “Here we go again, responding to events with emotion rather than reason. UKIP [UK Independent Party] chieftains talk of internment. Columnists suggest the closing of mosques. Yet at the same time we praise ourselves for not panicking. Well, one or the other, but not both.” And: “It is still my view that unarmed officers, patrolling alone, always did and would now do more in the long run to protect us from crime and disorder of all kinds happening in the first place, than phalanxes of armed and armoured officers, loaded with weapons.”

So Hitchens’s advice about how to regard Russia can be taken seriously without suspecting an affinity for Putin or a Trump-style police state. He is simply someone who knows the difference between Russia and the Soviet Union and sees no point in a new Cold War.

About the West’s attitude toward Putin, Hitchens says what needs to be said over and over:

Western diplomats, politicians, and media are highly selective about tyranny. Boris Yeltsin’s state was not much superior to Vladimir Putin’s. Yeltsin used tanks to shell his own parliament. He waged a barbaric war in Chechnya. He blatantly rigged his own re-election with the aid of foreign cash. He practically sold the entire country. Russians, accustomed to corruption as a way of life, gasped at its extent under Yeltsin’s rule. Yet he was counted a friend of the West, and went largely uncriticized. Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who locks up many more journalists than does Mr. Putin, who kills his own people when they demonstrate against him, and who has described democracy as a tram which you ride as far as you can get on it before getting off, has for many years enjoyed the warm endorsement of the West. His country’s illegal occupation of northern Cyprus, which has many parallels to Russia’s occupation of Crimea, goes unpunished. Turkey remains a member of NATO, wooed by the E.U.

As for Saudi Arabia and China, countries much fawned upon by the Western nations, the failure to criticize these for their internal despotism is so enormous that the mind simply refuses to take it in. But I need not go on. The current attitude toward the Putin state is selective and cynical, not based upon any real principle.

Selective, indeed. Hitchens could have gone just a bit further back in history and found many more examples of American and British enabling of bloody tyrants. But, some will say, those other tyrants were not expansionists like Putin and therefore a threat to the West. Let’s see what Hitchens has to say about that.

The experience of living in that sad and handsome place brought me to love Russia and its stoical people, to learn some of what they had suffered [under Soviet rule] and see what they had regained. And so, as all around me rage against the supposed aggression and wickedness of Vladimir Putin’s Russia, I cannot join in. Despite the fact that Moscow has abandoned control of immense areas of Europe and Asia, self-appointed experts insist that Russia is an expansionist power. Oddly, this “expansion” only seems to be occurring in zones that Moscow once controlled, into which the E.U. and NATO, supported by the U.S., have sought to extend their influence.

The comparison of today’s Russia to yesterday’s U.S.S.R. is baseless. I know this, and rage inwardly at my inability to convey my understanding to others….

He then drives the point home.

Nobody who has seen these things [I have seen] could possibly compare the old Soviet Union with the new Russia. The trouble is, almost nobody has seen them. Nor, it seems, has anyone noticed the withdrawal of Moscow’s power from 700,000 square miles of territory which it once held down with boots and tanks and secret policemen. Somehow or other this unprecedented peaceful withdrawal of a power undefeated in war is being portrayed as “expansionism.” Nobody who understands history, geography, or, come to that, arithmetic can possibly accept this portrayal. There is much to criticize in Russia’s foreign policy, especially if one is a Ukrainian nationalist, but the repossession of Crimea does not signal a revival of the Warsaw Pact. It is instead a limited and minor action in the context of this conquered and reconquered stretch of soil, the ugly but unexceptional act of a regional power.

Hitchens winds down by reminding us that “Russia is invaded all the time — by the Tatars, the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Swedes, the French, us British, the Germans, the Japanese, the Germans again: They keep coming. Nor are these invasions remote history.” He then asks Americans to imagine how they would feel if just a small fraction of what the West has been doing to Russia were happening on America’s borders: “I cannot see the U.S. sitting about doing nothing, especially if it had repeatedly warned in major diplomatic forums against this expansion of Russian power on its frontiers, and been repeatedly ignored over fifteen years or so.”

He closes with a plea for understanding and a concern for peace: “Out of utopian misery has come the prospect of rebirth. It is as yet incipient. But I see great possibilities in it, in the many once-blighted churches now open and loved and full again, in the reappearance of symbols of pre-Bolshevik Russia, in the growth of a generation not stunted and pitted by poisoned air and food, nor twisted by Communist ethics….. Why then, when so much of what we hoped for in the long Soviet period has come to pass, do we so actively seek their enmity?”

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yesweweresoldiers · 5 years ago

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Stunning End to Cold War: The Fall of the Berlin Wall

November 9 marks the thirtieth anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. This momentous event signaled the eventual dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of a “Cold War” struggle that had lasted over four decades.

We asked Professor David Krugler, who edited our core document collection, The Cold War, to talk with us about the events leading up to November 9, 1989 and the sudden conclusion of an ideologically driven conflict that involved the world at large. Krugler, Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin–Platteville, is a visiting professor in the Master of Arts in American History and Government program, teaching such courses as “The Rise of Modern America, 1914-1945” and “American Foreign Policy.”

The United States began building a strategy to counter the Soviet empire shortly after the Second World War ended. Was that strategy primarily diplomatic, or military?

[caption id="attachment_23703" align="alignleft" width="292"] George F. Kennan, Portrait. Harris and Ewing, 1947. Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division, LC-DIG-hec-12925.[/caption]

It was both. The basic strategy of “containment” emerged within President Truman’s State Department, from the analysis of George Kennan, in his “Long Telegram” of February 22, 1946 (Document 1 in the Cold War volume). Kennan, Deputy Chief of the US Embassy in Moscow, when asked to explain USSR opposition to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, offered a more wide-ranging analysis. He discussed the methods and motives of Soviet communism and how the US should respond. Recommending “a long-term, patient but vigilant containment of Russian expansive tendencies,” Kennan argued that the US should carefully and strategically choose its points of resistance. Kennan became head of the policy planning staff in the State Department but was removed by Dean Acheson, who didn’t think Kennan was sufficiently militarizing containment. In fact, Truman, in his Special Message to the Congress on Greece and Turkey (Document 2), which articulated the “Truman Doctrine,” had effectively vowed to resist any Soviet effort to expand its empire or influence.

The man who took Kennan’s place, Paul Nitze, authored NSC 68 (Document 6). This document militarized containment, outlining specific defense policies and needs. In June 1950, just two months later, North Korea attacked South Korea and the merits of Nitze’s recommendation to increase defense spending seemed confirmed.

The last three documents of the volume on the Cold War originate just before and during the fall of the Berlin Wall. Would you explain their significance? First, why did you include Reagan’s speech at the Brandenburg gate (Document 43) in June 1987?

Reagan’s “Remarks on East-West Relations” not only display his great rhetorical gifts; they exemplify the singularity and consistency of his Cold War position. He came into the presidency determined to shape the outcome of the Cold War—not just to manage it. He wanted victory for the United States. In his address, he calls the Berlin Wall a failure of Communism. He’s not the first president to do so. When John F. Kennedy went to the wall in 1963 (Document 27), he called the Berlin wall a vivid symbol of “the great issue between the free world and the communist world. . . . Freedom has many difficulties and democracy is not perfect, but we have never had to put a wall up to keep our people in, to prevent them from leaving us,” he noted. But Reagan went further, calling upon Gorbachev to “tear down this wall.” The State Department was beside itself about that portion of the speech, which they thought needlessly provocative. They made considerable efforts to try to talk the president and those close to him out of saying it. But Reagan insisted. He understood that without that line, it would be just another speech about the need for liberty and the failure of communism. Challenging Gorbachev to take the wall down, he declared how he wanted the Cold War to end.

[caption id="attachment_23577" align="alignnone" width="632"] White House Photographic Office. President Reagan at the Berlin Wall, 1987. Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. ID C41244-9.[/caption]

The final document is the transcript of a telephone conversation between President George H. W. Bush and West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl on November 10, 1989. This happens at the moment when Reagan’s vision for the end of the Cold War is actually coming true. Yet Bush adopts a completely different tone; he senses this is not a time for triumphal rhetoric.

Yes, Bush says, “I want to see our people continue to avoid especially hot rhetoric that might by mistake cause a problem.” Americans must not start dancing on the grave of the Berlin Wall and of communism; we need to be temperate. This transcript, like Reagan’s speech at the Brandenburg Gate, shows a particular president in action, doing what he does very well.

[caption id="attachment_36806" align="alignright" width="378"] Photograph of President George H. W. Bush on the Phone with German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, on the Day of German Re-unification: P16308-10; 10/3/1990; White House Photograph Office.[/caption]

Bush spends most of the conversation listening. Students might take away the impression that he is being passive and reactive. In fact, Bush has made a conscious decision: the Americans need to be involved, but first, they need to learn how best to be involved. He takes Kohl’s advice when Kohl says, in effect, look, the Poles are eager to rid themselves of communism, but they don’t have the tools to succeed. They’ve been oppressed for so long, and their current leaders were in prison a short while ago. We need the International Monetary Fund to help them out as they restructure their economy. They will need time to transition to representative institutions.

In between Documents 43 and 45, you chose Document 44, National Security Directive 23, “United States’ Relations with the Soviet Union.” This was written less than two months before the wall fell. Do its authors foresee what is about to happen?

They offer a very clear-eyed appraisal. While they are not wildly optimistic that the Cold War is about to end on terms greatly favorable to the United States, they see Soviet attitudes changing, leading

. . . to the possibility that a new era may be now upon us. We may be able to move beyond containment to a US policy that actively promotes the integration of the Soviet Union into the existing international system. The USSR has indicated an interest in rapprochement with the international order and criticized major tenets of its own postwar political-military policy. These are words we can only applaud. But a new relationship with the international system cannot simply be declared by Moscow.

The authors say that “a new relationship” would depend upon the demilitarization of Soviet foreign policy and actual fidelity by the USSR to the principles of the world order established in 1945. To prove they really want rapprochement, the Soviets, among other stipulations, “must renounce the principle that class conflict is the source of international tension.” They have to stop spouting the Marxist-Leninist line. This reiterates classic Cold War policy.

But then the authors of NSD 23 venture beyond Cold War thinking. They write that another proof of Soviet commitment to improved relations would be its “willingness to cooperate with the United States to address pressing global problems, including the international trade in drugs and narcotics, terrorism and dangers to the environment.” Already the National Security Council foresees areas in which the United States and post-Soviet Russia might attempt to cooperate. Indeed, just 12 years after this document was produced, 9/11 occurred and countering terrorism became the defining focus of American foreign policy.

What factors led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, and to what extent did American containment policy bring this about?

The failures of the East German state led to the fall of the wall, and those had been building for a while. East German leaders themselves made the decision to ease travel through the wall, although whether they meant to open free passage is disputed. According to one account, the East German official giving the press conference, being unused to the tenacious questioning of western reporters, was pressed on what those changes would mean. Did they mean that people could go back and forth without a pass? Flustered, the official said yes. Another account says that this announcement was not accidental.

[caption id="attachment_36815" align="alignleft" width="337"] General Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee Mikhail Gorbachev speaking at a news conference after a Soviet-American summit in Reykjavik, Iceland, in 1986. RIA Novosti archive, image #359290, http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#359290.[/caption]

The East Germans could do this because Gorbachev repudiated the Brezhnev Doctrine (1968), which had severely limited the ability of Soviet-bloc governments to liberalize their governments. When Gorbachev withdrew troops from Afghanistan, he encouraged dissidents and opponents of communism to step up their activism. He signaled that communist leaders in Europe now had more independence to make decisions about reforms.

I don’t think Gorbachev expected to end Soviet communism. In the West, we want to translate the terms “perestroika” and “glasnost” into democratic capitalist concepts. We think glasnost means freedom of the press, and perestroika means restructuring the economy into a capitalist system. But Gorbachev hoped only to make communism more credible to the Soviet people. He’d let them offer constructive criticism of their government, and the government would respond with a few reforms. As for restructuring the economy, Gorbachev intended only to shore up the central planning at the heart of communist economics. He had been shocked, when he became Soviet premier, to learn how low worker productivity was. He thought he might raise productivity in part by limiting the cheap availability of vodka, which led to alcoholism, absenteeism, mistakes, and workplace accidents. He didn’t want to pivot to a market economy; he wanted to resuscitate communism. But he unleashed forces he couldn’t master.

Reagan hoped this would happen. And he lived to see it.

Did Reagan’s defense buildup help to bring about the end of the Cold War?

[caption id="attachment_36811" align="alignleft" width="500"] Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan in Reykjavik, October 11, 1986. RIA Novosti archive, image #46685, http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#46685.[/caption]

NSC 68 gives the motivation for that sort of approach. Thirty-three years later (Doc 42), Reagan called for a Strategic Defense Initiative. One of the hardened shibboleths about the end of the Cold War is that the US pursuit of SDI forced the Soviet Union to do the same thing, and this bankrupted it. The story is not quite that simple. At the Reykjavík summit in which Reagan proposed eliminating all strategic nuclear arms on both sides, SDI became a sticking point. Reagan maintained that SDI was a defensive system. Gorbachev countered this, saying that if SDI became workable—and he emphasized his skepticism it would—it would be an offensive system, because it would protect the US from reprisals should it carry out a first strike. Of course, even without SDI, any attempt to eliminate strategic nuclear arms on both sides would have been long and difficult. But the Soviet Union’s economic problems began far before the issue of SDI; its centrally planned economy didn’t work.

What lessons can we learn from the way the Cold War unfolded and the way it ended?

Alliances matter. Truman’s administration led the formation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and subsequent administrations expanded it, while dedicating resources to making the treaty meaningful. That’s how the line is held; without NATO, containment of the Soviets in Europe is not possible. Two other examples involve multilateralism, pursued through the UN. The action the US takes to prevent the North Korean takeover of the Korean Peninsula is channeled through the UN. The resolutions of its Security Council authorized US military action, just as they would authorize the actions of the US and coalition partners in the Gulf in 1990 to 1991.

[caption id="attachment_36788" align="alignright" width="384"] People atop the Berlin Wall near the Brandenburg Gate on 9 November 1989. Photo by Sue Ream. Wikimedia Commons.[/caption]

Careful diplomacy also matters, as George H. W. Bush understood. His management of the Gulf War gets a lot of attention, but it is sometimes overlooked that he’s managing the end of the Cold War at the same time. Those two problems intersected. During the build-up to military action in the Gulf, the Soviet Union made a sudden late move to negotiate Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait by sending emissaries to Baghdad to meet with Saddam Hussein. This was very problematic for Bush, who was carefully building an international coalition to confront Saddam. Stationing western forces on Saudi soil meant building a truly international task force of both Muslim and Christian troops. Bush also had to keep Israel from taking independent action against Iraq after it attacked Israel with Scud missiles. When the Soviets sent emissaries to Baghdad, Bush could not simply tell them to get out of the way. That would have repercussions for the newly independent nations in Europe. If you go back to NSD 23, where the National Security Council says the Soviets have to demonstrate willingness to work within the international order—well, the US has to do that too. Bush has to say, “Okay, if you want to try this, all right, but remember, we’re organizing a coordinated action through the UN, and you’re part of the UN.”

Nothing came of the Soviet overture. Saddam was committed to his course of action. He thought that all he had to do was to inflict, at the outset of war, some substantial casualties on the international coalition. Then the public would turn against the war and he would be able to negotiate a settlement that might involve partial occupation of Kuwait. He was mistaken, of course.

Will we see something like the Cold War recur?

I don’t think we will see another ideology like communism—one with such international appeal, causing an alignment under one or more powerful nations that support the spread of it. Shortly after the fall of the wall, a state department planner named Francis Fukuyama published The End of History and the Last Man, based on a paper he wrote within the State Department. Fukuyama argued that with the collapse of communism, liberalism stood unquestioned. The western values of representative government had triumphed; hence future major conflicts based on ideology were unlikely. Events since then have shown this assessment to be overly optimistic. Look at the resurgence of nationalism that has occurred in many parts of the world. Still, while that causes problems the US has to manage in its foreign relations, there is no ideological thread linking it all together.

Yet even under communism, US policy-makers tended to mistakenly lump all communists into the same box. Because Ho Chi Minh got his education in Moscow, they thought of him as a mere puppet of the Soviet Union. Few grasped that he had created a hybrid of Marxist ideology with Vietnamese values and cultural traditions. Within the bipolar Cold War world, there were lots of variants.

Even less will the abhorrent policies and practices of the Islamic State spread globally. Its warped view of Islam and of social relations may show up in other groups, but who will coordinate an international movement? It’s a very decentralized phenomenon.

What should we celebrate thirty years after the fall of the wall?

[caption id="attachment_35218" align="alignright" width="297"] Professor David Krugler, standing in front of the remains of the Berlin Wall, 2015[/caption]

When you think that the Cold War could have ended in the explosion of nuclear weapons, it’s a dramatic and positive outcome. And its conclusion on that night in November 1989, with crowds of people flowing back and forth through the walls, was stunning. Hours before, if people had done that they would have been killed in terrible ways—shot, mauled by dogs, obliterated by landmines. Yet for years they’d devised ingenious ways to get past that barrier—hot air balloons, gliders. . . . At the museum in Berlin, at Checkpoint Charlie, there’s an exhibit showing a tiny West German car owned by a West German who had a petite East German girlfriend. He hollowed out a passenger seat so that she could crawl into it, sealed it over her, and drove her across the checkpoint. Later, the East Germans deployed dogs to prevent that kind of thing. I love the scene Kohl describes—all these people going back and forth repeatedly, as if they were checking, in the way you check to make sure you locked the door of your house, to make sure they really could get through.

The post Stunning End to Cold War: The Fall of the Berlin Wall appeared first on Teaching American History.

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courtneytincher · 5 years ago

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Putin’s Trolling of Trump Isn’t Just About Missiles

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- President Vladimir Putin’s offer to sell Russian air defense systems to Saudi Arabia is about more than mere trolling, even though it caused laughter from Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani. Putin was trying to persuade the entire Middle East that working with him is more effective than cooperating with the U.S. One could regard it as a kind of mafia-style protection offer: The new, more aggressive gangster on the block is making a bid because the current king of the streets has grown lazy and risk-averse.On Monday, Putin was in Ankara for talks on the Syrian conflict with Rouhani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He made every effort to blend in, referencing the Quran and making constant references to Muslim traditions. “The Holy Quran says violence is only acceptable when defending your kin,” Putin told a press conference after the summit. “So we’re willing to provide aid to Saudi Arabia in defending their kin, their country.” The Saudis should “make a wise, statesmanlike decision,” he suggested, and purchase S-300 air defense systems as Iran did, or the more modern S-400 ones which Turkey recently purchased. “They will reliably protect any Saudi Arabian infrastructure,” Putin said, referring to the recent drone attack on Saudi refineries.Putin’s Quranic scholarship is a little dubious (the Islamic holy book actually permits Muslims to fight back when attacked, not when protecting “kin”), but Rouhani was willing to let it pass. He asked Putin facetiously which system he’d recommend to the Saudis -- the S-300 or the S-400. “Let them have their pick,” Putin replied. In reality, it’s the S-400 that Russia has been trying hard to sell to Saudi Arabia, so far without success. It has also offered the missiles to Qatar. Neither the S-300 nor the S-400 has seen any real combat use. Theoretically, and as seen in exercises, these are powerful weapons. But not even Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad, who has had a few opportunities to use the S-300s he received from Russia last year, has done so.The point of acquiring such systems isn’t so much to shoot down enemy aircraft and missiles but to make a bid for Russian support in case of a crisis. For that, Erdogan, whose country is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has been willing to live with the threat of U.S. sanctions and even lose access to U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets.Russia’s bid to replace the U.S. as the go-to problem solver in the Middle East is based on the success of its relatively low-cost but highly effective intervention in Syria, where the Russian air force and deniable mercenaries have helped propel Assad’s forces to victory in a bloody civil war. Putin’s foray in Syria was meant, in part, as a sales demonstration to Middle Eastern regimes: Russia will, if asked, intervene on the side of the incumbent ruler in the interest of stability, and it will do so quickly and without political strings attached. The U.S. offers neither of these advantages.President Donald Trump is, at heart, an isolationist unwilling to send U.S. troops overseas, and his instinct so far has been to pull out of Middle Eastern countries rather than start new wars. The current field of Democratic presidential hopefuls is almost uniformly pacifist: Most off the candidates support a quick withdrawal from Afghanistan, and all are for ending U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen. The U.S. public is tired of overseas military adventures. Russia’s advantage in this regard is that Putin doesn’t care what the public thinks when he feels it’s in Russia’s interest to intervene militarily in some far-off place. Moreover, he uses Kremlin-friendly private military companies to provide a cloak of deniability.Putin also makes a point of not trying to tell his situational allies – or perhaps “clients,” current and potential, is a better word – how to run their countries. Assad may be up to his elbows in blood, but he’s the “legitimate” ruler; Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may be responsible for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, but Putin has gone out of his way to act friendly with the prince when others shunned him. U.S. help often comes with patronizing advice and sometimes even with direct support for regime change. Putin defends the right of incumbents to act in line with what they see as their traditions – thus the several references to the Quran he made in Ankara.This, of course, makes for some awkward exceptions to the ancient rule that says the enemy of one’s enemy is one’s friend. Russia’s closeness to Iran, on full display on Monday, is an irritant to Saudi Arabia, especially when the U.S. says Iran was responsible for the drone attack on Saudi infrastructure. On the other hand, Russia is Saudi Arabia’s natural ally in protecting the global oil market from the disruption caused by U.S. shale operators. Besides, Saudi Arabia working with the Kremlin could potentially be a way to end Iranian provocations since Moscow will talk with Tehran rather than hit it with sanctions as the U.S. does.It’s hard to see Saudi Arabia siding openly with Russia and undermining its long-standing alliance with the U.S., no matter how tempting Putin might make it sound. Putin’s foreign policy record doesn’t spell trustworthiness, and his steadfast support for Assad isn’t proof that he’ll be as unfailingly loyal to other potential clients. Besides, the U.S. has shown the crushing might of its military on more occasions than Putin’s Russia; there’s no question that its ability to win any conventional armed conflict is greater than Russia’s today.In the medium to long term, however, which power is seen as the chief problem-solver in the Middle East depends on U.S. willingness to bring its might to bear. Trump’s actions against Iran haven’t been overwhelmingly effective. The Yemen conflict, in which the U.S. has sides with the Saudis, is still raging. U.S. foe Assad controls most of Syria. And Turkey hasn’t suffered any adverse consequences for defying the U.S. with its S-400 purchase.Putin is waiting in the wings and signaling that he speaks the same language as the clients he’s courting.To contact the author of this story: Leonid Bershidsky at [email protected] contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephanie Baker at [email protected] column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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rolandfontana · 6 years ago

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The US-China Cold War Starts Now: What You Must do to Prepare

Since the very beginning of US-China trade negotiations we have been unequivocally negative on the likelihood of a deal and we have taken huge amounts of heat for that, via hate e-mail, online, and even from our own clients, some of whom have accused us of being too cynical or too negative about China. Our response to all of this has been consistent. We just kept saying that NOW was (and it still is!) the time for foreign companies (especially those that sell their products to the United States) to work hard on reducing their China footprint.

We first publicly sounded this warning call back in October, 2018, in China, the United States and the New Normal, though we had been warning our own clients months before this for months. This “New Normal” post was an attempt to get in the face of those who had been sending our lawyers hate mail because we had in a September 2018 post predicted manufacturing orders from China were declining and would continue to decline:

I got a badly written and vituperative email yesterday in response to my post, On the Impact of China Tariffs: Is This a Dead Cat Bounce? In my post I predicted a large decline in manufacturing orders from China, starting in the next few months. The email accused me of “hating China” and wanting “to impede its peaceful” rise and of being “jealous of its progress.” All this because we have been writing of late how so many of our law firm’s own clients and so many others are leaving China, or looking to leave China. We have been getting quite a lot of these sorts of emails lately.

I then wrote about how our reporting on what we were seeing and our advice for what to do had (and still has) absolutely nothing to do with our own personal feelings about China:

Guess what people. Our posts about foreign companies leaving China have nothing to do with our feelings regarding China and everything to do with what we are hearing and seeing. Our statements of fact about companies leaving China are not being made out of animus to China, but out of a desire to tell the truth and help foreign companies figure out what to do about China going forward. Life would be far easier and economically lucrative for us if foreign companies were not running for an exit from China. But from what we see, they are.

We are telling the truth about companies (not just American companies) looking to leave China because part of what we do is help companies legally fulfill their goals and their plans. My firm’s international lawyers help companies negotiate their exits from China and we help companies figure out where to go instead of or in addition to China. We also help companies looking to set up in other countries, do deals involving other countries, protect their IP in other countries, and draft necessary contracts in other countries. In the last few months our international lawyers have been being kept nearly as busy with countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Turkey, India and Pakistan as with China.

And then, for the first time, we wrote about how no matter the resolution to the US-China trade war, things would NOT revert back to the way they had been. We dubbed the present tense situation between China and the United States as the New Normal.”

The above is but an introduction to what we see as China’s diminished future for foreign companies. Since pretty much the inception of the US-China trade war we have been saying that we do not see its end because we have always seen it as more than a trade war. At first, we saw the US tariffs as an effort by the United States to get China to “open up” and “act right” on things like the internet and IP. But because we did not see China changing on these things, we did not see the trade war ending.

Vice-President Pence’s speech on China earlier this week has only reinforced for me that the trade war between China and the US will not be ending any time soon, if ever. The New York Times has called that speech the Portent of a New Cold War between the United States and China and China’s own Global Times wrote an article entitled, Pence speech shows Washington’s tougher policy on China. Don’t blame us. We are just the messengers. Things are getting very tough between China and the United States right now and the trade war is just a symptom of that, not the disease.

The United States is aggressively and unabashedly doing what it can to isolate China and to remove it from the world of international trade. The new free trade agreement between the United States and Canada is further proof of this as it essentially blocks Canada and Mexico from engaging in free trade with China. See What Trump’s new trade pact signals about China. Word is that shutting out China is going to become a regular thing in all new U.S. trade agreements. See US Commerce’s Ross eyes anti-China ‘poison pill’ for new trade deals. Will the EU and Japan and Latin America play ball on this? I predict that most if not all of them will.

So yes, the above is why we will continue to write about what North American and Latin American and European and Australian businesses should be doing to deal with the new normal regarding China. We are writing these things because we value our credibility and because we presume our readers value our no-holds barred advice — threatening emails or not.

We then listed out our previous blog posts on what foreign companies should do in light of the then new tariffs imposed against China (much of which information is relevant for the tariffs that will go into effect at 12:01 a.m. THIS Friday:

China Tariffs and What to do Now, Part 1

China Tariffs and What to do Now, Part 2

China, Wine, and Tariffs | China Law Blog

China/U.S. Tariffs and How to Fight Back

On the Impact of China Tariffs: Is This a Dead Cat Bounce?

U.S. Tariffs Against Vaping Imports from China: Don’t Let Your Industry go up in Smoke

We then noted how the opposition to our claims of foreign companies looking to leave China had so far been bereft of facts: “So far nobody has written to factually dispute that many (most?) foreign companies are looking to leave and/or are leaving China, but we certainly would welcome such information if you have it!”

And so began our steady stream of posts exhorting companies to look more closely at countries other than China.

The reactions to these exhortations from our own clients has been the most interesting, because those have ranged all over the map. Many have insisted that there would be a US-China trade deal and their reasoning was usually something like, “it only makes sense for their to be a trade deal,” believing the war was a purely monetary one and once the two countries were truly pushed up against a wall, the Chinese side would agree to buy x billion dollars more of soybeans and other US products and services and the United States would then walk away. These clients did not want to hear our incredibly long explanations as to why we did not believe this to be the case.

But some of our clients really listened and I am going to highlight two of them now, without discussing enough to reveal who they are. I chose these two companies because they both “played” their cards so wisely and because they are such completely different companies.

The first company is a really big U.S. company that makes electronics and I cannot get more specific than that. The head of this company “loves” geopolitics and from day one he was convinced there would not be a quick deal between the United States and China and, most importantly, no trade deal would solve the issues between China and the U.S. and problems between the two countries would be ongoing for decades. This person declared that his company would within six months reduce its purchases from China by 50% and he wanted my law firm’s help to achieve this. What he wanted from us was the following:

Help in deciding the countries to target for its purchases.

Help in figuring out how to pressure its existing China-based suppliers to move outside China.

Help in figuring out whether to manufacture on its own in countries outside China.

Help in protecting its IP outside China.

Drafting its manufacturing contracts with the companies outside China.

Help in making sure that its products that would be made outside China would truly and legally qualify as having been made outside China.

Our lawyers were thrilled to work on a project(s) with such a wide scope, but I have to confess now (I have confessed this to the client previously so no worries there) that I did not believe this company’s 50% goal was achievable, in large part because of the nature of this companies products: electronics. If it had been shoes or clothes or furniture or even doors or toasters I would have thought it could move 100%. But electronics, no way.

But this client has now moved about 80% of its production outside China and it has made clear to its few remaining China suppliers that if they cannot supply our client with their products from factories outside China (and soon), our client will cease to buy from them. In other words, this company — in the electronics industry — will soon be buying all of its products from outside China. And what has this move out of China done for this company? It has improved its positioning when making sales because it can and does tell potential buyers that its products do not come from China and therefore its pricing is not dependent on which way the US-China trade war is blowing.

The second company is a start-up that makes children’s products. This company initially came to us for a China NNN Agreement. I asked whether his products would be subject to any of what I call the Trump tariffs and he said yes. I then asked why then he was having them made in China, rather than Thailand (I picked Thailand both because it seemed like a really logical product to be made in Thailand and because a number of our lawyers have a lot of experience doing manufacturing deals with Thailand — we even have a lawyer and a Thai Business Specialist who speak Thai. His response to my Thailand suggestion was very positive, but he said that he didn’t even know where to start with Thailand. I said that we could help pretty much every step of the way and we did and the new products will soon be coming to market, with costs LESS than they would have been in China and 100% tariff free. I am guessing this client too will use its made-in-Thailand-ness as a selling point, because let’s face it, American and European consumers tend to have a much better “feeling” about Thailand than they do about China.

Let’s now though talk about the new (permanent?) impasse in US-China trade talks and how we got here. I’ve already heard from friends and clients who just could not wait to remind me that they too predicted this would happen. Many of these people point out how “what China did here is exactly what __________[Chinese company] tried to do to us.” And it is. But what exactly did China try to do to the US and why was that ZERO surprise to those who have a lot of experience negotiating with Chinese companies? What China tried to do was try to completely change an agreed-upon deal at the very last minute, believing that the Western side (in this case the United States) was so desperate for a deal (any deal) that it would go along. We have written about this tactic countless times on here and our recommended tactic for dealing with it is just what the United States has done. Stand firm or get even tougher. See Negotiating With Chinese Companies: Walk, Don’t Look Back.

It is exactly this sort of common negotiating tactic, among a whole host of other things, that has caused us to be skeptical of the US and China doing a trade deal and skeptical of any trade deal changing much if anything in any event.

Literally the day before President Trump’s tweet regarding his plan to institute a 25% tariff on another $250 billion of Chinese goods, we wrote a long piece, entitled The US-China Trade War: Winter is Coming, in which we wrote how no trade deal between the United States and China will change much between them and how the trade war will merely go forward on other fronts. We concluded that post (as we have so many other posts) by exhorting foreign companies to look closely at their own business relationships with China:

How though should your business respond to all this? To quote an old investment adage, “the trend is your friend,” and right now the trend is for the West and China to continue decoupling. This means the most important thing for your business is to be cognizant of this and to monitor it. We keep writing about this because we see it as likely to impact nearly all foreign companies that do business with China, even those from countries whose relations with China are much better than those between the United States and China. No matter in what country your company is based, if you do business with the United States — especially if you have your products made in China and then sell them to the United States — your business is at risk of becoming entangled by the decoupling.

If you want to see your company go into China or have its products made by China or increase its China presence, you should be prepared to explain to your company’s decision makers why you believe your business will not fall prey to US-China tensions. If you are having your products made in China, you almost certainly are already looking to reduce your China exposure, but in doing your cost benefit analysis for that, consider whether yours is the sort of business whose sales might increase merely by being able to tell its customers/consumers that your company does no business with China. And yes, this is going to sound self-serving (and it is, but it is also true), you need to more than ever make sure you are not doing anything that might make you an easy target of the Chinese government. In other words, make sure your company is in full compliance with China’s laws, particularly its tax, environmental, employment and bribery laws.

I linked to this “Winter is Coming” post on Linkedin where it has been viewed by more than 10,000 people and has engendered a healthy discussion regarding the US-China trade war. I urge all of you to go there and join the discussion.

Obviously much has happened in the last couple days between the US and China and the below is my initial attempt to put it all into perspective. I say “initial” because my views will no doubt change as more things occur and as I have time to discuss with others what has just occurred and will occur.

My first thought based on the last few days is that this trade war is at its core a fight between the United States and China for who determines from where products are purchased. I am obviously not the first person to say this but I have to admit that this did not really hit home for me until yesterday One of my law firm’s Spain lawyers off-handedly mentioned something along these lines to me months ago, but it took me until now to realize how true it is. Both President Trump and President Xi are using their presidential powers to influence global buying decisions. Okay, I agree that when I say it like this it seems obvious, but I’m not so sure that it was or even is until you hear the following explanation. But hey, if I’m all wrong on this, just let me know — as the saying (sorta) goes: “there are no bad ideas here.”

Earlier this week I read how President Xi controls China’s economy. Well duh, right. No, I mean like really controls it, down to just about every nib. China wants to pay Canada back for Canada’s abiding by international law in arresting Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou. See The Huawei Indictments are the New Normal. China chooses to do this by essentially telling its businesses that they better not buy any canola oil from Canada and, pretty much just like that, they don’t. This is on top of China already having taken hostage two Canadians and snap-deciding to sentence to execution another Canadian whose previous sentence was 15 years in prison. In other words, President Xi and those at the highest echelon of China’s government can snap their fingers and thereby create a new business reality.

Lacking in such nearly unmitigated power, but wanting that same power for himself, President Trump has been using tariffs to essentially accomplish the same thing. He has been raising tariffs against China and then negotiating with China and then threatening to raise tariffs against China and then raising tariffs against China, all the while pressuring various U.S. governmental bodies to increase their pressures against China products via non- tariff actions like anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD). See Yet Another International Trade (AD/CVD) Petition Against China: This Time it’s Metal File Cabinets.

Make no mistake about it, President Trump is doing whatever he can to convince American companies — really any company from anywhere in the world that sells its products to the United States — to stop doing business with China. In ‘We’re freaked’: Trump startles US businesses with fresh tariff hike, CNN does a great job explaining (I think unintentionally) how this all works by focusing on how Trump’s last minute tariffs will harm U.S. businesses that did not prepare for this:

Importers received just five days’ notice about the sudden rise in the tariff rate to 25% from 10%.

Phil Page, the CEO of Missouri-based Cap America, estimates that his company has more than $1 million worth of baseball hats already ordered that will now be hit with the higher tariff. “It’s very difficult to understand what the President is going to do by a business perspective. To spring it on us all at once like this is a very poor judgment on his part,” Page said. “I thought this thing was going to be worked out this week,” he added.

* * * *

Trump imposed three rounds of tariffs last year. The third and biggest tranche on $200 billion of Chinese goods went into effect in September. But the President threatened to escalate the tariff rate to 25% from 10% on January 1 if progress wasn’t made on a new trade deal — and then pushed the deadline to March 1.

When the second date came and went, it appeared trade tensions were easing up and businesses adjusted to the new normal.

“I thought we were finally figuring out how to make this work, and now we have to start all over,” said Tiffany Zarfas Williams, owner of the Luggage Shop of Lubbock in Texas.

About 84% of the luggage, backpacks and briefcases she sells were hit with tariffs. Earlier in the year, she would receive emails from vendors on a daily basis about price increases. Zarfas Williams raised her own prices accordingly, and adjusted the assortment of items on the floor.

But by Monday afternoon, she had already received a new email from one of her biggest vendors reminding her that a higher tariff would result in a higher price.

Sales of the higher-end items at Luggage Shop of Lubbock have already taken a hit and adding another 15% to the price would be “a whole new ballgame,” she said.

The article then notes how “Trump’s top trade negotiators on Monday brushed off criticism that US businesses and executives were not given sufficient notice ahead of plans to escalate tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods.”

“The fact is that we’ve been in a position where that very well could happen,” Lighthizer told reporters at a briefing. He also opened the door to possible exemptions but did not offer any further details.

The message was echoed by Mnuchin. “It’s obviously been a big time commitment, so I would just emphasize that nothing that’s been done has been on short notice,” he said. “Although certain expectations may have changed over the last week from the other side.”

Essentially, we have on the one hand businesses saying President Trump’s new round of 25% tariffs and his threatened (and likely to occur!) next round of 25% tariffs were a complete surprise on the one hand. And on the other hand, we have the Trump administration disputing this and accusing those who say this of having not made much of an effort to read the tea leaves regarding impending US tariffs against China.

I have to at least somewhat side with Lighthizer and Mnunchin on this because we have on this blog been relentlessly downbeat about US-China relations by basically screaming to anyone who will listen that you must start looking beyond China for your products. We have done this as recently as Sunday, in The US-China Trade War: Winter is Coming to more seven months ago in China, The United States and the New Normal.

So to at least some extent, those who just assumed that China-US relations would soon return to how they were before the United States initiated its first round of tariffs were either not reading enough or were too much ignoring or just misinterpreting what they did read. Nonetheless, I completely get where these complaining companies are coming from because most of my own law firm’s clients that were having their products made in China last year are still having their products made in China right now. In large part this is because leaving China is neither fast nor easy.

Some of our clients have left China entirely, moving their production to Thailand, the Philippines, Mexico, Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Sri Lanka, and the Ukraine, among others. Some of our clients have diversified their supply chain away from China, while remaining in China. Others are working on exiting China or diversifying away from China. Many though — and for various reasons — feel they have no choice but to remain in China for the short term and even beyond. So yes, there are some companies that should have left China 6-12 months ago but didn’t, but there are more companies that simply could not leave China fast enough to avoid this next round of tariffs.

In September 2018, in How to Leave China and Survive, we wrote about how difficult it is to cease having your products manufactured in China and how that can be done in way that minimizes myriad potential problems. I would urge anyone looking to move away from China to read that carefully before instituting any actions that might lead anyone in China to think you might be leaving.

But if you are going to leave China, where should you go and how even should you go about determining this? And what can you do to try to secure an exemption from these new tariffs? In China/U.S. Tariffs and How to Fight Back, one of our international trade lawyers explained how to try to secure an exemption to previous tariffs and much of what was written there will apply to this new round of tariffs as well.

I am about to do something we have literally never done even once in any of our other 4,781 blog posts and something I swore to myself we would never ever do: I am going to suggest you reach out to my law firm for assistance. I swore we would never do this because I have never wanted anyone to view this blog as an advertisement for our law firm, because I’ve always known that would be the kiss of its death. We don’t accept any paid advertising on here and we never will and we have never suggested in any blog post that anyone contact us.

But what is happening with China right now is extraordinary and it will no doubt lead to tough times for many companies, especially those that have been heretofore unprepared. Finding a landing spot other than China is not easy, but between the international lawyers and foreign business specialists at my law firm and the many fine consultants and manufacturers we know around the world, we can help and we want to help. Our international trade lawyers can help as well in trying to get your products exempt from the upcoming tariffs as well. So I do urge you to reach out to us, by emailing us at [email protected].

I do not want to see more articles quoting companies that were not prepared for this mega storm or do not know what to do in the face of it. And if we can’t help you, we will endeavor to recommend to you those who can.

We will over the next few weeks be writing a lot about what is happening and providing a lot more specifics on how to best respond to it. I apologize for the length of this post; there is though so much to say and I did not feel that it could wait to be strung out over many days.

Winter is upon us. And as much as it pains me to say this, the US-China cold war starts now.

The US-China Cold War Starts Now: What You Must do to Prepare syndicated from https://immigrationattorneyto.wordpress.com/

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battybat-boss · 6 years ago

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Do Bullies Always Win?

Trump's bullying worked with Canada, has half-worked with Iran and North Korea, but has had nothing but malign impact on Israeli-Palestinian relations.

The news that Canada has caved on trade has me depressed. The glee with which Donald Trump has announced his latest “victory” is galling. Sure, he didn't force Mexico and Canada to do everything he wanted in the replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). But he certainly can claim a public-relations coup. And his supporters in Congress are milking the moment for all it's worth.

“While many in Washington claimed it could not be done, President Trump worked tirelessly to bring Canada to the table and negotiate a new trade deal that is better for American workers and consumers,” said Republican Representative Steve Scalise.

Yes, yes, I know: The arc of the moral universe is long and it bends toward justice. The problem is, how long is the arc and how big is the universe? In the shorter term, such as the span of a human lifetime, injustice seems more likely the norm.

I would like to believe that Trump's game of chicken on foreign trade is simply not going to work. But what if it does? What if China blinks? What if the European Union buckles? The game of trade is not simply won by those who can negotiate the longest or write the most detailed treaties. It's often won by those who use crude displays of power.

Geopolitics is not a game for the faint of heart. It's the perfect playground for bullies.

Bullies were on the ascendant even before America's top tyrant won the presidency in 2016. Vladimir Putin, Rodrigo Duterte, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Daniel Ortega: These leaders all believe that their might makes right.

But Trump brings it to another level. Russia, Turkey, Nicaragua and the Philippines all have rich histories of strong men imposing their wills on resistant populations. The United States lacks that tradition. The rule of law is supposed to keep the bullies in check.

Now Trump is bringing into government a whole club of likeminded pugilists. John Bolton and Mike Pompeo are running foreign policy. The god-awful Jeff Sessions is rewriting the rules of law. And now Trump wants to stuff the Supreme Court with frat boys like Brett Kavanaugh, someone who has never known the difference between right and wrong and, in his most recent testimony, tried to bully Congress into confirming his nomination simply because he's, well, entitled to it. Ruthlessness got him this far in his career - why shouldn't he stick with this tactic?

It reminds me of my first day in middle school, when an older boy picked me out of the crowd of incoming sixth graders to punch my arm, a display of power that he enjoyed so much that he turned it into a daily ritual. But the current situation is much worse than that. It's like going to school and discovering that not only is that gang of jerks that hates you still controlling the hallways during breaks. Not only are they still extorting lunch money from the weak at lunch. Not only that, but they've taken over the classrooms and the administration, they decide who gets into what courses and what colleges, and they want to make your entire day a living hell.

Bullying Tactics

Bullies are often, though not always, scared of a real fight. They pick on the weak and the easily intimidated. They talk big. Donald Trump has always talked big. And he seems never to shy away from a fight. But those are verbal battles - in the press or in the courtroom. As for actual fighting, he notoriously avoided the Vietnam War, not for moral reasons but because of supposed bone spurs in his heels.

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Like most chickenhawks, Trump talks big about blowing up other countries and taking out their leaders. So far, however, he has only attacked some usual suspects - a few targets in Syria, a widespread bombing campaign in one of the poorest countries on earth (Afghanistan), and a continuation of the US drone program.

True, Trump might be gearing up for a war with Iran. He's being pushed in that direction by people inside his administration (like Bolton and Pompeo) as well as neocon hawks like Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (who recently called Trump a “Twitter tiger”).

But I suspect that Trump wants simply to bully Iran into submission. He has hit the country with the sanctions that the previous administration had removed as a result of the nuclear deal. Already, Iran's oil exports have dropped steeply by 870,000 barrels a day since April. The Trump administration has threatened to penalize any country that imports Iranian oil with secondary sanctions. As a result, South Korea and Japan have already stopped their orders. Meanwhile, US oil exports have gone up, in part to fill the gap.

Of course, not everyone has gone along with Trump. China in particular will continue to purchase Iranian products. And Europeans are openly defying Trump by crafting a deal with Tehran to preserve the nuclear deal and keep open trade and investment links. And oil prices are on the rise, which means more discontent at the pump in the US, particularly among Trump's carbon-guzzling supporters.

Trump says he wants a new nuclear deal. But really the end game is regime change in Tehran. For all but the craziest of neocons, the Iraq War has created a new kind of syndrome: maximum pressure, minimum military involvement. It's what some observers have cannily described as “regime change on the cheap.” So far, thanks to some powerful allies, Iran is hanging tough.

Big Stick, Then Talk

Perhaps if Kim Jong-un were Muslim or didn't have nuclear weapons or had made the supreme mistake of being nice to Barack Obama, Trump wouldn't be interested in sitting down to talk with him. As it was, Trump ratcheted up the rhetoric against North Korea in the first year of his term. Then he pivoted, against the advice of many in his administration, toward negotiations. The result was the Singapore summit in June, the first time a sitting American president met with a North Korean leader.

There have been a few interesting changes in the US-North Korea dynamic. The Pentagon agreed to suspend war games with South Korea last summer. Pyongyang has continued a moratorium on nuclear and missile testing as well as dismantled some non-essential parts of the nuclear complex. But the key problem remains the same. Who will make the first bold move?

Meanwhile, North and South Korea aren't waiting for Trump to get off the dime. They've already begun removing landmines from the Demilitarized Zone. At the last inter-Korean summit, North and South agreed to significant de-escalation, from a no-fly zone over the border to a transformation of the DMZ into a peace park. That's bold, and it's happening now.

As for Trump and Kim? They are apparently enjoying those early days in a romance when men's thoughts turn constantly to love. As Trump said at a recent rally in West Virginia: “I was really being tough and so was he. And we would go back and forth. And then we fell in love, ok? No really. He wrote me beautiful letters. And they're great letters. And then we fell in love.”

So, the two bullies have hit it off. No surprise there. But as in Romeo and Juliet, today's Montagues and Capulets haven't yet ended their generational conflict despite the love of the two principals. Such love affairs usually don't end well.

But let's say that it does, and the mutual bullying works. In reality, the détente between Washington and Pyongyang will have more to do with the patient negotiations of the quintessential anti-bully, South Korea President Moon Jae-in.

Stomping on the Palestinians

Trump has promised a brand new deal for Middle East peace. That's the fraudulent businessman at work. He's slapped a “new and improved” sticker on a product that is demonstrably inferior to its previous versions, and somehow he thinks the world will buy it.

The Trump administration has put maximum pressure on Palestinians to negotiate from a progressively weaker position and minimum pressure on Israel to make any concessions at all. Trump has moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem (a major Israeli demand), zeroed out $200 million in bilateral assistance for Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, cut US financial support for a UN agency that has long helped Palestinian refugees, and closed down the Palestinians' de facto embassy in Washington, DC.

The proper response to this bullying is, of course, to tell the Trump administration to shove its “deal of the century” right up its Foggy Bottom.

And it's not just Palestinians and liberal American Jews who feel this way. Here's what former Israeli military spokesman Peter Lerner has to say: “While it is Trump's prerogative to pick and choose whom to support, and how to support them, the ramifications of these abrupt steps will only empower the radicals. The deal of the century can't be made with Israel alone, and hardballing the Palestinians into submission is likely to blow up on Israel's doorstep.”

It's one thing bullying Iran and North Korea. These countries might be backed up against a wall, but they have choices. The Palestinians, after losing so much and then losing even more under Trump, basically have nothing left to lose - except their dignity. Why should they come to the negotiating table to trade this last resource for a manifestly unfair deal?

So, in the four examples cited, bullying worked with Canada, has half-worked with Iran and North Korea, and has had nothing but malign impact on Israeli-Palestinian relations.

Unfortunately, for Trump and his minions, bullying isn't just a tactic, it's a way of life.

The Comeuppance?

If life imitated Hollywood, the bullies would either experience a life-affirming conversion or get their just desserts.

Let's forget about the first option. Donald Trump, John Bolton, Mike Pompeo: These guys are not going to pull a David Brock and suddenly realize the many errors of their ways. Then what about option two? I'd love to see Trump and his crew escorted from the federal government to the federal penitentiary. But how many members of the George W. Bush administration faced prison time for the mishandling of the Iraq War, the torture policy and the other disasters of US foreign policy? Only one: Lewis Libby, for his role in the Valerie Plame affair. And how many members of the financial community went to prison for their role in the banking crisis of 2008? Again, only one.

It may turn out that a couple more Trumpsters have to face jail time as a result of the Mueller probe. Maybe even the president himself will be Caponed over his myriad tax scams. But I have my doubts that the aftermath of the 2020 elections will provide us with the grand spectacle of a mass perp walk from the White House.

Unfortunately, the victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 election disproved the adage that “cheaters never prosper.” Indeed, his whole life stands testament to the grim truth that cheaters, if they cheat on a truly grand scale, can get away with it. The same, alas, applies to bullies.

But not always. The #MeToo movement is only the latest reminder that organized resistance can bring down very powerful bullies. It's not exactly a Hollywood ending - not until they make a movie about Harvey Weinstein's rise and fall - but it's a whole lot better than suffering in silence. As for the Trump administration, well, I don't know about you but I'd like to shorten the arc of the moral universe and bend it a lot more acutely toward justice.

*[This article was originally published by FPIF.]

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer's editorial policy.

The post Do Bullies Always Win? appeared first on Fair Observer.

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legit-scam-review · 6 years ago

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Volumes Surge on Turkey’s Crypto Exchanges as Lira Tanks

Trading volume on Turkey’s cryptocurrency exchanges surged Friday as the country’s fiat currency plunged to record lows on economic jitters.

According to CoinMarketCap, volume at Turkish exchanges Paribu, Btcturk and Koinim jumped over the past 24 hours by more than 100 percent each. Absolute volumes are still relatively small at these exchanges, with Btcturk, the country’s largest, handling $11.6 million in trades.

The Turkish lira hit an all-time low against the dollar, reflecting global market worries about President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s economic policies, his souring relationship with U.S. president Donald Trump and his government’s ability to repay its debts.

Doing little to calm such fears, Erdogan spoke in public appearances Friday of “economic war” with the U.S. and called on Turkish citizens to exchange any dollars, euros or gold they own for the lira to prop it up, according to media reports.

The ongoing turmoil has increased the appeal of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for some local retail investors, even though the sector has been in a bear market this year.

“Every day there are new [bitcoin] exchanges coming up in Turkey,” said a local university student who for safety reasons asked to be referred to by his Twitter handle, Bit_gossip.

Another crypto user, an affiliate marketing professional in Istanbul who also prefers to go by a pseudonym, Bitmov, said he has been using bitcoin to buy digital ads abroad for over three years. Now his family and friends turn to him for advice on how to buy bitcoin, he said.

Bitmov told CoinDesk:

“I started personally trading crypto 1.5 years ago because of the weakness of the Turkish lira, and fear of the political, and financial, status of the Turkish government. Cryptocurrency makes me feel much safer.”

Pointing to hardships caused by recent economic policies, Bitmov said he no longer trusts fiat currencies.

Similarly, Bunyamin Yavuz, a cardiologist in Ankara, said he no longer trusts local banks and now buys XRP, monero, lumens, among other cryptocurrencies as part of his investment portfolio. Yavuz told CoinDesk his holdings now consist of 30 percent cryptocurrencies, 20 percent U.S. dollars, and just 10 percent lira.

Reflecting the growing interest, Bit_gossip has run a crypto Discord channel since 2016 that has recently grown to 11,294 Turkish-speaking members. Bitcoin purchases would be even brisker right now were it not for fear of volatility and scams, he said, explaining:

“Most Turkish crypto traders (hodlers actually) started in late 2017, or the first quarter of 2018, and they got rekt.”

Roadblocks ahead?

Although Turkish lawmakers are considering the creation of a national cryptocurrency, local exchanges may face more hurdles if politicians start to fear the rise of bitcoin.

Turkey is not the only Middle Eastern nation considering its own cryptocurrency. Inflation-riddled Iran is also looking at the possibility of a centralized cryptocurrency to boost the economy.

But unlike Iran, where retail investors often turn to in-person swaps and peer-to-peer exchanges like LocalBitcoins because they are blocked from global platforms by both international sanctions and local censorship, Turkish banks often work with exchanges. So Turkish users face fewer barriers to enter the global market.

However, that may change given that like his Iranian counterparts, Erdogan is urging constituents to convert foreign investments into local currency.

Yavuz said the Turkish government may follow in Iran’s footsteps and restrict access if bitcoin exchanges grow too quickly, but warned that if it does so, “it will be the end of our economic growth.”

Bitmov said rumors are already circulating in Istanbul that Turkish banks may soon end support for customers with savings in dollars. He added:

“If your national currency is falling like this … or you don’t trust centralized currencies and banks, what can you do? You should be your own bank, and I’m sure people all around the world will realize that soon.”

Lira image via Shutterstock

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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Hello I just bought a new car and called my insurance company to insure my new vehicle they have yet to send me my card my question is I need to drive cross country do you have to have an insurance card or can the police tell if you have insurance even if you do not have a card

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Would I have to pay high insurance on a replica of a sports car, when really the car is actually that the body kit will be going onto is only worth 600 ?""

Cheap scooter insurance in UK?

In February of next year I will be buying a 50CC scooter and taking my CBT, What would be the best companies to go to for cheap insurance? I'm planning to pay in a lump-sum :) thanks""

Why do people get life insurance?

Insurance for a honda civic?

I am 16 years old getting insurance for the first time got my licence a week ago never driven on it.....i want the simplest insurance ever something that will let me drive my car legally

07 honda civic Si insurance?

hello peps...i hav a 07 honda civic Si coupe and its red T_T..actually its kinda dark orange...i was wondering how much do i hav to pay for the insurance for it...we hav 3 cars insured right now NOT including the civic yet...my dad plans to insure it with him as the primary driver cuz im still 19 and it will prolly make the price higher....

Cheap auto insurance for 18 year old?

How much money could i save on my car insurance by switching 2 geico?

""As a 20 year old male, how high can I expect my car insurance to be if I drive a 2001 Mustang GT?""

Hello, I'm 20 years old and just now starting to drive. I've always commuted with my bicycle and it's kept me in great shape, but with school and a full time job, I can't be every where on time! So now it's time to drive! So, I visited Geico's website for an insurance quote, and I received the following; Start Your Policy Today for $107.65 plus 5 monthly payments of only $106.75 each 6 month total policy premium: $611.40 Is that too much, or does that sound about right?""

Any recommendations for affordable individual/family dental insurance?

I already looked on google and found a few affordable dental plans for myself...Is there anyone who is currently enrolled? How are the prices? Any recommendations on where i should enroll, or insurance plans i should stay away from? I was interested in Aetna dental plan. Is there anyone whose enrolled with them?""

Unemployment Insurance Florida Notice of Determination . Denied?

I got a Notice of Determination in the mail from Florida Unemployment Compensation. Section 2 states: Benefits are payable because: The discharge was for reason other than misconduct. Section 3 states: The employer is not chargeable since the employment was in the base period. The last job I had I only had for 3 weeks. The job I had before that, I had for three years. Before the Notice of Determination I received Wage Transcript and Determination It says I am eligible and states my weekly benefit amount and when my benefit year begins and ends. My next to last employer is in the base period. I have already received on check for one week. and I am scheduled to claim my weeks for this coming Monday. I went to the Florida Unemployment website and went to the link and put in my info for info about my claim and it says nothing about me being denied. If my last employer is not chargeable and not in my base period, does that mean my next to last previous employer is chargeable, since they are in my base period? I have received no explicit letter saying i am denied. My bottom line question is: does the Notice of Determination by saying that my last employer is not chargeable mean that my unemployment claim is denied?""

Is a Scion tc considered a sports car by insurance companies?

I'm getting a new car. I have a Land Rover Discovery and its a piece of crap and drinks a lot of gas. I was going to get a Mazda RX8, I love them. My family has 3 of them, but my dad said no because the insurance would be high because its a sports car. Is a 2008 Scion tc considered a sports car by insurance companies? I am a 19 year old female by the way, if that matters. Thanks for any answers!""

Should I notify my car insurance company if I paid for the fix myself?

I had a minor car accident in a Costco parking lot last weekend. I was backing out my parking lot; the other guy was also backing out. Unfortunately, we didn't see each other... Anyway, this seems to be a 50-50 accident. The damage to the cars are moderate and we agreed on just fixing ourselves. So no personal information was exchanged. I got an estimate today. The cost for fixing my car is not cheap but still lower than the minimal requirement for accident reporting in California. It is also lower than my insurance deductible. So I plan neither to report to DMV nor to file a claim. But one friend of mine suggested that in this case, I should still notify (but not to file a claim to) my insurance company. His argument is that the other party can still come back and sue me (if he is a freak). While we didn't exchange information, the other party may have remembered my license plate number so theoretically he could find out all other information about me. But I am not sure if notifying the insurance company will affect my premiums. What do you think?""

Car Insurance????

Hi does anyone know any cheap car insurance companies. Thankyou

How much would insurance be for a 2009 camaro for a 16 year old first car?

Wrecked car leased no insurance?

I will try to make this short and sweet, I hit a tree and messed up the left side of My car, My car is still leased and My insurance ran out right before I hit this tree, the car is still driveable but it's been towed away and now I need money to get it out and have to have insurance on it before I get it out....I guess My question is am I facing jail time or what could happen. I haven't called My bank yet""

How much would car insurance be for a 17 year old guy?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/car-insurance-policy-holder-carlene-ostara"

0 notes

foursproutwealth-blog · 7 years ago

Text

Putin's Ultimatum Is The Next Stage Of The War

New Post has been published on http://foursprout.com/wealth/putins-ultimatum-is-the-next-stage-of-the-war/

Putin's Ultimatum Is The Next Stage Of The War

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s State of the Union address may be the most important speech since his address to the U.N. in September 2015 on the eve of Russia’s intervening in the War on Syria.

Putin’s sober analysis and admission of demographic constraints on the Russian economy’s growth was welcome. It highlights the real challenges for Russia over the next fifteen years. The shift for those of us analyzing the Russian economy is to look at it purely in terms of per capita growth, not absolute growth.

But, that admission of Putin’s highlights the backdrop of his publicly outing Russia’s new and formidable weapons technology.

That he did this during the height of his re-election campaign should bring a smile to the cynic’s face. Well played, sir.

Now, about those new weapons. I defer to Alex Mercouris at The Duran for the only in-depth look at these new weapons. The Saker, who is absolutely one of the best analysts of Russia’s military capabilities, considers these new weapons, “Game, set, match for The Empire.”

No More Parallel Aggression

Putin has played the game very well over the past few years. Employing the strategy of ‘parallel aggression’ when responding to a U.S. escalation, he’s kept a lid on hostilities in Syria and Ukraine, while grinding out small victories, playing for time.

The announcement of these new weapons, however, change that game plan. Putin is now going on the attack.

Here are some early thoughts on this implies:

Announcing these weapons begs the question, “What is Putin not telling us about?” That should scare many in the Pentagon and civilians who believe the U.S.’s response should be to escalate.

Arming Ukraine with more heavy weapons to take back the Donbass will be countered because there is no reason not to.

Now we know (versus suspect) why the U.S. Deep State has been so adamant about pushing an anti-Russian narrative now. The window has closed on any potential regime change in Russia.

U.S. forward deployments in Afghanistan and Syria and backing proxy armies such as ISIS and the Kurds is part of a subversion strategy to soften the underbelly of Russia forcing them to fight expensive, conventional warfare while extending U.S. logistical supply lines, its core competency in warfare.

These new weapons represent a state change in weapons technology but, at the same time, are cheap deterrents to further escalation. They fit within Russia’s budget, again limited by demographic and, as I pointed out in a recent article, domestic realities.

The Narrative Quagmire

And it’s why point #4 above is the most important. We’re not winning in technology. So, all we can do it employ meat-grinder policies and force Russia and her allies to spend money countering the money we spend.

It’s a game that hollows everyone out. And it’s easier for Putin to sell the defensive nature of his position to Russians than it is to sell our backing Al-Qaeda and ISIS to defeat them. Because that reality has broken through the barrier to it.

Trump’s fighting the RussiaGate narrative domestically dovetails with exposing our duplicity in Syria. The important point of the Urainium One scandal is not that Hillary Clinton the gutting of our uranium reserves. No, the important point is that the the very people screaming out Russia today were cutting deals with them yesterday.

Even the dumbest American sees the hypocrisy in that.

Putin coming forward now with this announcement puts a halt to the political games being played in the media and at the U.N. to hang onto a failing narrative of Russian and Syrian malfeasance in the war.

You can only scream about the chemical weapons wolf so many times before no one believes it any more.

Don’t Get M.A.D.

The U.S. knew about all of these systems. If we didn’t then what are we truly spending all this money on spycraft for. We also know first-hand how good Russian electronic warfare (EW) is, c.f. the airstrike on Al-Shairat last April where less than 40% of those Tomahawks hit their intended targets.

The Saker has made the point many times that Russia’s armed forces, up to this point, are designed around rapid response within 1000 kilometers of Russia’s borders. It is not designed around global force projection.

These new weapons fundamentally change that stance. And much of the current geopolitical knife-fighting will come to a rapid close because of it.

Russian diplomacy has stymied U.S. attempts to game the geopolitical landscape for the past four and a half years (since Putin beat Obama over the false flag chemical weapons attack in 2013). Now he’s given everyone another thing to consider, Russia’s Big Stick.

And I invoke Teddy Roosevelt here on purpose. Putin’s foreign policy has morphed into that. This is his ‘walk softly and carry a big stick’ moment. He’s been building to this point for fourteen years, since Bush the Lesser pulled the U.S. out of the ABM Treaty.

Now it’s here and we have no reasonable response. The Defense Department’s statement was laughable. All we can do it try and put inferior weapons closer to Russia’s borders to approximate M.A.D., a situation I feel we haven’t been at for quite a while now.

Putin just red-pilled the world on this subject.

The current hot-spots will begin resolving themselves over the next year.

Escalation by the U.S. in Ukraine is simply a way to empower Putin’s hardline critics on the eve of an election. The cries of “Putin is a traitor” or “Putin is a Zionist shill” have been growing louder in the fringes of the Russian-centric commentariat.

He just ended them by changing the rules of engagement completely. If Putin was truly that guy, a weak-handed fool secretly working for Zionists, then he would have left Russia defenseless and would not have announced on the eve of his re-election after playing ‘possum for months the hammers Russia needs to secure her future.

In the broader sense, Putin has now put all of his allies under the same nuclear umbrella. And it should give everyone running their mouth about going to war, from Hezbollah to Israel, from Turkey to Iran pause.

Syria is now a game of attrition which Damascus and Moscow will win.

With Trump’s massive win at CPAC and the mid-term elections on the horizon, expect a major summit between Trump and Putin this year. Trump cannot hide behind the Democrats’ lunacy in the face of what Putin just announced.

They have to talk formally about how to pull the world back from what appears to be the brink of war.

* * *

For more commentary like this, advice on how to structure your investments and exclusive ideas ranging from stocks to bonds to cryptocurrencies, sign up for the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Investment Newsletter at my Patreon Page for just $12/month.

#Wealth

0 notes

foursprout-blog · 7 years ago

Text

Putin's Ultimatum Is The Next Stage Of The War

New Post has been published on http://foursprout.com/wealth/putins-ultimatum-is-the-next-stage-of-the-war/

Putin's Ultimatum Is The Next Stage Of The War

Authored by Tom Luongo,

But, that admission of Putin’s highlights the backdrop of his publicly outing Russia’s new and formidable weapons technology.

That he did this during the height of his re-election campaign should bring a smile to the cynic’s face. Well played, sir.

No More Parallel Aggression

The announcement of these new weapons, however, change that game plan. Putin is now going on the attack.

Here are some early thoughts on this implies:

Announcing these weapons begs the question, “What is Putin not telling us about?” That should scare many in the Pentagon and civilians who believe the U.S.’s response should be to escalate.

Arming Ukraine with more heavy weapons to take back the Donbass will be countered because there is no reason not to.

Now we know (versus suspect) why the U.S. Deep State has been so adamant about pushing an anti-Russian narrative now. The window has closed on any potential regime change in Russia.

The Narrative Quagmire

Even the dumbest American sees the hypocrisy in that.

You can only scream about the chemical weapons wolf so many times before no one believes it any more.

Don’t Get M.A.D.

These new weapons fundamentally change that stance. And much of the current geopolitical knife-fighting will come to a rapid close because of it.

Putin just red-pilled the world on this subject.

The current hot-spots will begin resolving themselves over the next year.

Syria is now a game of attrition which Damascus and Moscow will win.

They have to talk formally about how to pull the world back from what appears to be the brink of war.

* * *

#Wealth

0 notes

96thdayofrage · 7 years ago

Text

G20: the second Berlin War against Africa

Germany holds this year’s presidency of the G20.[1] On 12-13 June 2017, the German government organised a high-level conference in the historic city of Berlin where Africa was fragmented in 1885. The ostensible objective of the June 2017 meeting was to support private investment, sustainable infrastructure, and employment in African countries, as well as contribute to the AU Agenda 2063.[2]Its real effect is to deepen Europe’s colonisation of Africa.

The “Compact with Africa”

The background document of the Berlin meeting had all the “correct” sound-bites that we have heard for more than 70 years in various institutions of global economic governance including the IMF, the World Bank, the OECD, the European Union and others.[3]

Listen to the sound-bites of the “Compact with Africa” – what I call the New Berlin initiative. It is expected to:

Ensure that the Investment Compacts between African countries, G20 Partners and International Financial Institutions are demand driven;

Create a sound investment climate in relevant sectors of selected African economies;

Build on existing regional and international strategies in the context of addressing root causes of migration;

Strengthen the framework for private finance and investment – including Investment Compacts, which include a country specific set of measures to improve the macro, business, and financing framework for private investment;

Develop quality infrastructure, e.g. access to renewable energy… climate-related risk finance and insurance schemes… to implement the Energy Access Action Plan (Sub-Saharan Africa).

Launch an initiative to stimulate employment and income generating opportunities for young Africans including the empowerment of women and girls through digital inclusion – eSkills4Girls.

And so on and so forth – the whole liturgy of well-meaning phrases that are music to the ears of African regimes but, in reality, aimed at advancing the interests of global corporate capital in Africa.

The G20 at Hamburg: Who is the G20?

The Berlin conference was followed by the G20 Summit in Hamburg on 7-8 July with the whole panoply of the giants of world capitalism – including Trump, Xi Jinping, Putin, Modi, Shinzō Abe, and Terisa May. They were greeted by rallies, raves and riots by an army of anti-capitalist street protestors and civil rights movements.

The G20 (the Group of Twenty) is essentially a western creation with participation of some selected countries from the global South. Look at the composition of the G20.

Group 1: Australia; Canada; Saudi Arabia; United States (4)

Group 2: India; Russia; South Africa; Turkey (4)

Group 3: Argentina; Brazil; Mexico (3)

Group 4: France; Germany; Italy; United Kingdom (4)

Group 5: China; Indonesia; Japan; South Korea (4)

Besides the 19 individual countries, there are 2 representatives from the European Union (EU): one from European Commission and a second from the European Central Bank. (That comes to a total of 21, not 20!)

It must be a genius who worked out this remarkable configuration:

Western countries and their allies (like Japan, South Korea and Mexico are spread out in 3 groups

There is no grouping for Africa. The only African presence is that of South Africa (in the mixed bag of Group 2)

In addition to a minimum of 11 members of the west and its allies (Australia; Canada; Saudi Arabia; United States; Mexico, France; Germany; Italy; United Kingdom; Japan; South Korea), there are two additional members from the European Union -representatives of the EU Commission and the EU Central Bank!

The G20 is more or less like the Green Room of the WTO, which makes all critical decisions on behalf of the so-called international Community.[4] However, this body is different from the WTO in some ways that might be important to bear in mind. One is that its decisions are not binding. Second is that while the G20 is a club of likeminded countries from the west (or close allies of the west), there is an increasing influence of China in it. The last summit of G20 was held under Chinese presidency in Hangzhou in September 2016. But at Hangzhou, Africa was side-lined.[5] China is a shrewd player in this game. It is there not to fight for Africa’s battles, but for its own, whilst, at the same time developing parallel institutions (like CAFTA – China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, and the One Belt, One Road (the new Silk Route), and its own currency.

The financial iron fist of G20

G20 is the larger co-ordinating forum, but let us be clear about this: its real iron fist is its “finance track” which is coordinated by the German Federal Ministry of Finance headed by the dominant figure of Wolfgang Schäuble, the author of the financial package that has reduced Greece to a pauper nation held in captivity by largely German finance capital. The five African countries that were invited to the Berlin meeting in June – Côte d’Ivoire, Morocco, Rwanda, Senegal and Tunisia – wrote letters of appreciation to Wolfgang Schäuble.[6]

Germany is the real financial and industrial hub of Europe. The Compact with Africa was engineered by the German Ministry of Finance. In its essence, its thrust was to force open African doors to European and generally western investments. African governments have been told in no uncertain terms that for them to receive FDIs (foreign direct investments), they need to improve conditions for such investments. To this end, the World Bank, the IMF and the African Development Bank (ADB, which in reality is an extension of the WB, despite its name) produced a joint report that was well received by the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors at their meeting in Baden-Baden. This report proposed a catalogue of instruments and measures Africa should take to improve macroeconomic, business and financing frameworks. Using its financial muscle the West (through Berlin) is waging war against Africa.

Western countries have promised massive funds for Africa: for example, for Agriculture $21bn per year; Energy: $55bn per year, and so on. These are just promises. I can say with knowledge of similar past promises, namely, that none of these would materialise, and if they do, they would be hedged by multiple conditionalities that undermine Africa’s sovereignty and human rights. The irony is that there is a net outflow of capital from Africa. According to the African Union’s High Level Panel on Illicit Flows, chaired by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, Africa loses more than $50 billion every year from such outflows.[7] These are “illicit” outflows. However, if you add the other “licit” or legal outflows – including super-profits that big corporations earn in Africa, and money sent through “transfer pricing” (which involves underpricing African exports and overpricing imports into Africa) – then the outflows from Africa, conservatively estimated, run into over $150 to $200 billion every year.

So what options does Africa have?

Options for Africa

As always, we need to make a distinction between the common people of Africa (and the civil society), and the regimes in control of state power.

At the G20 Hamburg meeting, Africa was officially represented by only one country – South Africa, which was obsequiously behaving like a neo-colony that it is. Also present were some invited “guests” from Africa – Guinea, Kenya, and Senegal (why only these were chosen and by whom is anybody’s guess). We have already mentioned the countries that were invited at the July Berlin meeting on finance – Côte d’Ivoire, Morocco, Rwanda, Senegal and Tunisia. The latter, as I said, wrote letters – bowing and scraping – to the king of German finance capital, Wolfgang Schäuble.

This said, I need to add that this is no reason why we who come from the civil society should spurn our regimes. So here are my recommendations.

1. Resource sovereignty

We demand from our governments that the resources of Africa be used for the development of the people of Africa. Of course, this is easily said than done. For over half a century, “independent” Africa has been exploited for its resources (especially oil, minerals and agricultural commodities). It is time for a “global compact” that we write (not the empire), and we (the civil society) strategise amongst our friends in the west on how to upfront “our” global compact for wider discussion among civil societies in the west. [8]

2. Taking advantage of current geopolitical shift

The world is going through a significant geopolitical shift. We need to work out ways of using this to Africa’s advantage. I mention only two of its manifestations. One is the emergence of China as the global leader displacing the USA in many aspects of global economic governance. China (as I said above) is developing parallel institutions to the Bretton Woods structure (like CAFTA, the One Belt, One Road, and its own currency). This is opening space for Africa to play the west against China, and vice versa. There is nothing wrong in this. Also, Chinese investments in Africa are long term and are focused on infrastructural development as well as resource extraction; whilst Western investments are focused only on resource extraction. Of course, let me repeat, China is a capitalist state with its own interests. In trying to, for example, reforming the IMF and building parallel global economic structures, it does so for its own interests. That is to be expected. The question is how we in Africa can take advantage of this. (I will write more on this another time).

The second development is the changing political-economy of the United States under President Trump. My advice is that, despite his famously unpredictable personality, we can benefit from his challenge to globalisation and his “Make America Great” nationalism. At the G20 Summit in Hamburg, whilst China and India came out against protectionism (the policy of building firewalls of protection for national industries), Trump was in its favour. Trump has threatened, for example, to impose 20% tariff on imports of steel and other products from China, Germany, Canada, and other countries on “security grounds”. Whether he will achieve this is a different matter, but on this issue he is on our side ideologically. Why? It is important that we use this aspect of Trumpism to, also, demand for the protection of our industries from the dangers of “globalisation” that has destroyed Africa’s industries (and now also agriculture).

3. Building state capacity to analyse and negotiate on global issues

At the national, regional and pan-African levels, we must continue with our nonviolent struggles for democracy and respect for our human rights. At the same time, we must help – yes, help – our governments to take the courage to stand up to the empire, and where possible to build the capacity of our state officials to analyse global events, and to negotiate in the global organisations for economic and political governance on matters related to trade, investments, and technology transfer and resource sovereignty.[9]

[1] The G20 is a group of twenty major countries that meet annually to discuss issues of global concern. See below for further details

[2] The AU Agenda 2063 is a strategic framework for the socio-economic transformation of the continent over the next 50 years

[3] See:https://www.bmz.de/de/zentrales_downloadarchiv/g20/2017_03_Fact_Sheet_G20_Africa_Partnership.pdf

[4] At the 10th Ministerial meeting of the WTO in Nairobi in December 2015, for example, the green room was convened on the last day which, essentially, laid out the program agreed, first, between the US, Europe and Japan, and laid before the rest of the members selected from the South (including, of course, China, India, and Brazil). None of the countries of the South could overturn the decision made by the imperial countries. Although the chair was held Kenya, Kenya had no influence at all on the outcome. I was present at the Ministerial, and made an appraisal of the outcome. See: http://yashtandon.com/trade-is-war-a-postscript-to-wto-mc10/

[5] For a critical appraisal of the Hangzhou meeting, see: Aldo Caliari, G20 Hangzhou agreement unlikely to heal global economy’s malaise, SUNS #8316 21 September 2016

[6] Source: Federal Ministry of Finance. Also see: https://www.g20.org/Webs/G20/EN/G20/meeting_ministers/meetings_ministers_node.html

[7] Mbeki panel ramps up war against illicit financial flows. http://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/april-2016/mbeki-panel-ramps-war-against-illicit-financial-flows

[8] At the 7 June 2017 meeting of civil society representatives from Germany and Africa in Berlin (where I was present) it was decided that those coming from Africa write a “declaration” to be widely disseminated and discussed. Once it is out, I’ll write more on it.

[9] This is what SEATINI (the Southern and Eastern African Trade, Information, and Negotiations Institute) has been doing since its creation in 1998.

0 notes

fatimakhans12345 · 7 years ago

Text

Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel on the situation in Turkey

--- Translation of advance text ---

Zusatzinformationen

I discussed what I am about to tell you with the Chairperson of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the Chairperson of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) this morning because naturally we wanted to agree with the heads of the SPD and CDU on what steps we are going to take in the Federal Foreign Office and to act in concert with the coalition government. I will of course also phone my colleague Horst Seehofer later on. You can take it that everything I tell you now has been agreed both with Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz. Peter Steudtner travelled to Turkey at the beginning of July to take part as a consultant in a seminar organised by a human rights organisation on an island off Istanbul in the Sea of Marmara. The seminar was about cyber-security and how to deal with sensitive data about victims of human rights abuses. Peter Steudtner is not an expert on Turkey. This was his first-ever visit to the country. He has never written anything about Turkey. He does not have close contacts with Turkish politicians, the opposition or civil society, and he has certainly never come to anyone’s attention as a critic of the conditions in Turkey. And yet special units of the Turkish police including special prosecutors burst into the seminar on 5 July and arrested all ten participants for supporting terrorism. Following what felt like two endless weeks in police custody, Peter Steudtner and five other participants of the seminar have now been remanded in custody on the same charges. These allegations are clearly unfounded and have been invented. Peter Steudtner has become just one of 22 German nationals to have been imprisoned for political reasons in Turkey since the attempted coup, which fortunately failed. Nine Germans are still on remand in Turkey. We regard their detention as excessive and illegal. In each case, we have had to fight for consular access, which is a right guaranteed under international law. German-Turkish relations have been under a great strain in recent times. In the past decades, there have been many good times, as well as not so good times, and misgivings, misunderstandings and prejudices exist on both sides to this day. Despite all the obstacles and difficulties, we have always been able to take it for granted that there is a willingness to work together in a spirit of partnership and to do so on the basis of shared European values and the firm belief on both sides that the Turkish leadership sees itself as a member of the European family, also from a historical point of view, in NATO and in Turkey’s relations with the European Union and Germany. Particularly because we are aware of the sensitivities and disappointments in Turkey as regards the protracted process of EU accession and the failed military coup, our priority has always been partnership and the willingness to engage in dialogue, as well as patience with our Turkish friends and NATO partners, even if this has not always been easy for us. And this was not based on blind confidence or naivety, but rather the conviction that we need to do this because we want to prevent bridges from being burned and our shared interests from being harmed, not least for the millions of people of Turkish origin who have found a new home in Germany and who must not be allowed to end up between a rock and a hard place. They are our citizens. We are grateful to them for the contribution they have made and continue to make to our country’s development and prosperity. Time and again, we have been patient, have held back and not retaliated in kind. Time and again, we have trusted that reason will prevail again and that we will find our way back to thriving relations. Time and again, we have been disappointed. Over and over, the next stage of escalation was scaled. What is happening in Turkey is blatantly obvious. Someone who dismisses hundreds of thousands of civil servants, soldiers and judges, throws tens of thousands of people, including members of parliament, journalists and human rights activists, in prison, robs thousands of people of all their worldly goods by means of expropriation, closes down hundreds of press organisations, accuses dozens of German companies en bloc of helping terrorists – and by the way does all this on unfounded grounds and without respecting the fundamental principles of the rule of law – and is now pleading the case for the death penalty clearly wants to turn back the tides of time and to destroy the foundations of the rule of law and democracy that had only become so stable in recent years. Someone who detains law-abiding visitors to their country on the basis on outlandish, indeed absurd, accusations and throws them into prison has left European values behind. By the way, I also believe they have left behind what NATO has always aimed to be an alliance of values. The cases of Peter Steudtner, Deniz Yücel and Meşale Tolu stand for the ludicrous accusations of “terror propaganda” that clearly serve to silence all critics one can catch, including those from Germany. And they stand for the injustice that can befall anyone. So Martin Schulz is right – things cannot go on this way. We cannot continue as before. We need to be clearer than we have been so that those responsible in Ankara understand that this type of policy will have consequences. That is why we will now need to look at how we adapt our policies on Turkey to this more tense situation. I regard the following points as the most important. One cannot advise anyone to invest in a country if there is no longer legal certainty there and even companies are being accused of supporting terrorists. For this reason, I do not see how we as the German Government can continue to guarantee German corporate investments in Turkey, if – as has happened – arbitrary politically motivated expropriations are not only a threat, but have actually occurred. We need to think about whether we should cap Hermes export credit guarantees. As regards investment loans from development banks such as the EIB, we now need to take a very close look at what is and isn’t possible. Naturally, this also affects the question of how we deal in Europe with the EU’s pre-accession assistance to Turkey. We will need to discuss this in the coming days and weeks with our European colleagues. Peter Steudtner’s case shows that German citizens are no longer safe from arbitrary arrest in Turkey. As a result, we have no other choice but to change our travel and security advice for Turkey and to inform Germans about what can happen to them if they travel to Turkey. The new travel and security advice is available on the Federal Foreign Office website. SPD Chairperson Martin Schulz has also commented on topics such as the Customs Union – an interest that is of great importance to Turkey and at the heart of its own interests as regards the European Union. And I must say frankly that I, too, cannot imagine negotiations on expanding the Customs Union taking place if citizens of the European Union are being detained in prison at the same time and for no reason in Turkey. That is why I am in complete agreement with him. We urgently call yet again on the Turkish Government to return to a respectful dialogue on the basis on European values. We demand the release of Peter Steudtner, Deniz Yücel and Meşale Tolu, unlimited consular access, and swift and fair trials for them and the other Germans accused of political crimes. We expect Turkey to return to European values and to respect for freedom of opinion, the press and the arts. Relations with Turkey are very important to us. We remain interested in good relations with the Turkish Government based on trust. We want Turkey to remain part of the West. However, it takes two to tango. At the moment, I do not see any willingness on the part of the Turkish Government to take this path with us. More’s the pity!

from UK & Germany http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/EN/Infoservice/Presse/Meldungen/2017/170720-BM_Pressestatement_TUR.html?nn=479796

#UK & Germany

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ralphmorgan-blog1 · 8 years ago

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Isolated and agitated, Trump rattles White House from within

Washington (CNN)A buoyant President Donald Trump reemerged into public for the first time in more than a week on Friday, offering few signs of the malaise that has gripped his administration since the hasty dismissal of FBI Director James Comey.

"It's such an honor to be here," Trump declared to a group of military mothers gathered in the East Room for a Mother's Day event. "So bright and festive."

Downstairs, the mood was anything but.

In conversations with multiple advisers, conducted on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, officials described to CNN a sense of dejection within the West Wing ranks, where most aides were caught off guard by Trump's decision and had little ability to develop a cogent response. Even Vice President Mike Pence, who found his public statements again undercut by Trump himself, was "a little rattled" at the events of the week, according to an administration adviser.

Through it all, Trump has remained largely out of sight, not leaving the White House once since he returned late Sunday night. He grew increasingly isolated and agitated, associates tell CNN, going a full week without hearing the applause and adulation that often brightens his mood.

Spicer: Trump's tweet speaks for itself

Eager to move on

The President's public schedule has been devoid of opportunities for the press to see him since last Thursday. The absence came on a week when his decision to fire Comey consumed Washington; the President acted as an invisible central player to the drama, tweeting in spurts about alleged links between his campaign and Russia while largely remaining entrenched behind closed doors at the White House.

The quiet stretch was long-planned, officials said, with little expectation that Trump would deliver a bombshell. Instead, many in Trump's circle now view the past four days as the worst stretch of Trump's presidency so far. All are eager to move on.

"I think a lot of people are trying to figure out the new dynamic in town," one senior White House official said Friday, conceding the learning curve was often just as steep for those working steps from the Oval Office as across town.

Some of the more seasoned aides inside the West Wing refer to Trump as "the hurry-up president," full of risk and reward. But this week, aides bluntly conceded, the risks were far more apparent. It was a fresh reminder the administration is not prepared to deal with a crisis of its own making, never mind a catastrophe outside its control.

Still, inside the West Wing the mood appeared to lift somewhat by the end of the week, as one exhausted aide declared, "It's Friday."

Trump, in both individual meetings and larger sessions, personally worked to bolster his staff's plummeting morale after rampant criticism of their inability to cast his firing of Comey in a positive light.

But the scars were still apparent, with one White House official asking: "Do you think we're liars?"

And just as some aides began to feel on firmer footing after Comey's dismissal, Trump revived his longtime obsession with surveillance, suggesting that he was recording conversations inside the Oval Office. Neither Trump nor his spokesman tamped down on the implication, a telling development for a White House not shy about publicly rebutting what it claims is false reporting.

Trump: Comey better hope there are no tapes

Another distraction

It was another distraction from a governing agenda that, only a week ago, appeared on track. Comey clean-up efforts largely crowded out attempts to move on to other items, leading to fears among White House staff that Trump's governing agenda may be derailed.

Aside from vague references to rebuilding the military during his Mother's Day remarks, Trump has otherwise made no mention of policy in public since Thursday of last week, when his administration hit its high mark after passage of a GOP health care bill in the House of Representatives.

When he did emerge for a pair of interviews, Trump only seemed to deepen questions about the episode. He told NBC News on Thursday that he was thinking about the Russia probe when he made the call to dismiss the man overseeing it. He added he had long ago decided Comey must go.

Both seemed to directly contradict the ways Trump's aides -- including Pence -- had been working to salvage the Comey storyline.

After Trump told NBC that he'd long planned to fire Comey -- and was not, as Pence declared seven times on Capitol Hill Wednesday, acting on the advice of his Justice Department -- the Vice President found himself again in a position of being contradicted by his boss.

"He's not rattled very often and he was a little rattled" about how the events transpired, a senior administration adviser said.

According to this adviser, Trump made the decision to fire Comey -- and Pence knew the decision was coming before the announcement on Tuesday -- but he wasn't fully briefed on the President's reasoning for firing Comey before he went in front of cameras on Wednesday.

"He went out there without all the information," the adviser said. "It was not an attempt to lie."

Other advisers found themselves in similar positions. Briefing reporters at the same time Trump spoke in the East Room Friday, press secretary Sean Spicer struggled to explain multiple shifts in the timeline surrounding Comey's firing or the motivations behind it. Perhaps more worrisome, he wasn't able to say whether conversations in Trump's White House were being recorded -- a possibility Trump raised himself on Twitter Friday morning.

"The President has nothing further to add on that," Spicer said.

Indeed, Trump himself told a Fox interviewer that he wouldn't talk about whether he'd recorded conversations with his canned FBI director.

Trump's NBC interview in 2 minutes

In the public eye

Trump resumes a more robust public schedule starting Saturday. He'll deliver a commencement address at Liberty University, the evangelical institution in Lynchburg, Virginia. Next week he welcomes the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Colombia for talks and delivers another graduation speech at the US Coast Guard academy in New London, Connecticut.

And he departs on a five-stop foreign swing on Friday, though the grueling pace of presidential foreign travel isn't likely to provide much relief for a beleaguered president.

For some aides, a departure from Washington can't come quickly around. Those around Trump are eager to get him out of the White House and outside of Washington as soon as possible, according to a source close to the White House. Trump generally basks in crowd settings, though he has traveled far less than his predecessors.

"We need to get the President outside the beltway," this source said.

Trump floats canceling briefings for accuracy

'Meltdown mode'

Republican allies on Capitol Hill also hope the President can soon resume his push for key items of his legislative agenda, including a massive tax reform package that the White House promised in broad terms last month, but has since gotten little attention.

Trump's legislative affairs operation has largely gone quiet since the health care victory last week. On Tuesday, as senators hunkered down on Capitol Hill to hammer out their own version of the health bill, Trump was executing his plan to fire Comey; the news dominated conversations among lawmakers for the rest of the week.

When House Speaker Paul Ryan visited Ohio on Wednesday, he wanted to talk about tax reform. But headlines from his event largely focused on his refusal to comment about Comey's firing.

One Republican congressional source described the White House in "meltdown mode" as it scrambled to contain the Comey fallout.

Ryan himself worked to avoid the topic during an appearance in Wisconsin Friday.

"I'm going leave it to the President to talk about and defend his tweets," he said when asked about Trump's suggestion he may be recording his Oval Office meetings.

But Ryan seemed to acknowledge that, at least for the next four years, there will be little certainty coming from the White House.

"I'm focusing on what's in my control," he said.