#amelie back at it again talking about the targs and their nonsense

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Visenya + Maegor are Alicent + Aegon 2.0 ? If Aegon the Uncrowned was older and had better supporters could there be the first Dance much earlier?

I'm never one to smack down headcanons, especially when everything surrounding the Conquerors and the sons of the dragon and those generations are incredibly open to interpretation due to the lack of concrete information we have on interpersonal dynamics, but I don't personally see them as proto Alicent and Aegon. For one, it does depend on which version of Alicent and Aegon someone's thinking of, just because the show versions of their characters are vastly different from their book versions (Alicent in particular is incredibly different even though I love both versions of her, and Aegon in the book is significantly more well adjusted than our wet eyed king as portrayed by TGC). For two, the relationships do seem to be incredibly different. One of the things, to me at least, that shaped Visenya and Maegor's relationship is the isolation. Yes, Viserys doesn't seem to have been very involved in the upbringing of Alicent's children in the book, and we know in the show that he was the deadbeat dad to end all deadbeat dads, but Aegon and Helaena and Aemond and Daeron still had other people in their support systems. In both versions of the story, they had Otto and they had Criston Cole and they also had each other. Maegor is his mother's only child, raised primarily at her side, in a time where she was not involved at court and was keeping to herself on Dragonstone, which passed down to her son keeping to himself as well, and he doesn't seem to have interacted with any kids his age beyond just beating them in swordfights and unseating them in tourneys. He canonically wasn't close with Aenys when they were kids, and he did not grow up with his father, their relationship likely confined to whenever Aegon spent time at Dragonstone, which was rare given how he and Visenya had already pulled away from each other and lived separate lives at that time. Maegor and Visenya appear to have only had each other, which I think can be found in Maegor's later life, particularly in his search for wives and the way the one he was the most attached to, Tyana, is the most like Visenya (not entirely dissimilar to the way that Henry VIII kept looking for wives that closely emulated his mother, Elizabeth of York). So Visenya championing Maegor's cause as a contender for the throne, and Maegor's willingness to go along with it, comes from a much different motivation. It's Visenya looking out for, at this point, the only person that really matters to her, and putting her blood and her only love over everything else. Alicent's motivations, while they do contain a similarity (Alicent in both versions is also clearly motivated by love for her children) with Visenya's, are a lot more varied, based on things like her own issues with Rhaenyra and the law of the land and concerns about the fate of her children during a Rhaenyra monarchy that Visenya wouldn't have had for Maegor if Aegon the Uncrowned had been able to take the throne. There's also the fact that Maegor and Visenya and Alicent and Aegon are all incredibly different people, and as such would obviously have vastly different interpersonal dynamics based on who they are, even if there are some surface levels similarity of "monarch who wasn't thought of as the successor by the previous king takes throne, has mom who's on his side about it".

As for whether a Dance-esque situation could have arisen if Aegon the Uncrowned were older and had better supporters, I don't think that would have happened either. For one thing, Aegon was sixteen/seventeen and legally an adult according to all Westerosi societal customs during this time, so age wouldn't have mattered that much (and Aegon II was also pretty young when he took the throne, 22 in the book and 19 or 20 at maximum in the show) in the grand scheme of things. But there are a lot of much more complex factors at play. One of the reasons why the Dance was so contentious and such a disaster for the realm at large was because of how muddied the waters were. There really wasn't a "wrong" side to support, both because Rhaenyra and Aegon had competing legal claims with their own individual merits and also because birthright monarchy is a scam and the only right side would have been the creation of democracy, but I digress. There were a lot of factors at play making things complicated when everyone started picking sides that just didn't really exist in Maegor and Aegon the Uncrowned's struggles. You can't really call anyone in the Dance a usurper, for instance. But what Maegor did is very clear usurpation. He was pretty far down the line of succession, no matter which way it was cut. If the Targaryens wanted to follow absolute primogeniture, then during Aenys's reign he would have been behind Aegon and Aerea and Rhaella and Viserys and Jaehaerys and Alysanne. If the Targaryens wanted to just go with male dominant primogeniture, then he still would have been behind Aegon and Viserys and Jaehaerys. He was well down the line and there was a plethora of heirs ahead of him with a more direct claim. Unlike Aegon, who is relying on the legal precedent of male inheritance that's been the law in Westeros for quite some time, Maegor didn't have that loophole. He literally just took a crown that he was not entitled to in any legal way, simply because he had the biggest dragon and he wanted it. And that's the key thing here. Because the thing is, none of the rest of it matters. Even if Aegon was older, if that were a factor, or even if he had more loyalists, it wouldn't have mattered. What made the Dance as drawn out as it was compared to other Targaryen dynastic disputes, like Maegor and Aegon the Uncrowned, was that the Targaryens involved were evenly matched when it came to firepower. Each side in the Dance has a wide variety of dragons under their commands of varying power (the Blacks have more, but a lot of them are young, whereas the Greens have less but they're all pretty well disciplined and old and therefore more powerful) that keeps everyone on their toes. There's a reason why the Dance kind of effectively ends after the Blacks lose nearly all of their dragons; with Sunfyre as the oldest and most powerful dragon left in active combat (Rhaena's is way too small and Nettles had already vanished with Sheepstealer) the Black claimant, Rhaenyra, does not have anything to fight him and Aegon with, and as we know, it ends badly for her. And what doomed Aegon the Uncrowned in his fight against Maegor was dragon firepower. Aegon could have had all the allies and ground support he wanted, and maybe it would have made life harder for Maegor, but Quicksilver cannot square up with Balerion. In a straight fight, Quicksilver loses, which is exactly what happens. And even if Aegon had more support, it still would have pretty quickly dissipated after Balerion full on eradicates him and Quicksilver below God's Eye.

The Dance overall was just a very different set of circumstances that can't really be applied to other eras of Targaryen history and other dynamics and other squabbles, that's what makes it so unique and so interesting.