#also surely dorna must be extremely invested in ensuring he sticks around

[batsplat]

Hi! I'm kind of curious about your thoughts on which team will pick up Acosta if KTM pull out MotoGP or if any team will.

as I understand it, still quite a likely option they're in the sport for 2025 and even 2026 albeit with paused development of the bike, but they might be fucked to develop the bike for the next regs. if that's the case, I think acosta will want to be jumping ship for 2026 - which is also obviously ahead of schedule but gives him time to scout out his options. if they DO withdraw tomorrow... idk man, could be rough! wonder how tight miller's pramac contract is

if acosta still has some time, well. it kind of depends on a bunch of things we don't yet know. in some ways, the most obvious choice is honda: the only ones with a factory seat theoretically available in 2026 and the manufacturer that's currently lacking an obvious 'superstar'. the problem is that they're honda. for that to look like a remotely attractive option, honda needs to make a serious step over the off-season and... well, idk, nothing I've seen over the past few months inspires all that much confidence. maybe they can show acosta some banger 850cc engine plans. the second most obvious choice feels is yamaha, where even without any breaking contracts you do have a pramac seat on offer for 2026 that would presumably get full factory support. yamaha's trajectory has been vaguely promising and, while they clearly have full faith in fabio, pedro's kinda too good to not want him if he's literally right there to be taken. in some ways, fabio is the superstar you're least likely to displace - he's younger than the other non-pedro riders of that calibre (martin, bagnaia, marquez) and he's basically the only thing yamaha have had going with them since 2021. that kind of thing creates a special bond... fabio is essential to yamaha. would be interesting to see how that particular intra-manufacturer/team dynamic would develop lol

aprilia feels the least likely option. they don't exactly have much money to be throwing around, especially since there'd have to be some contract breaking to get rid of one of their current riders to get rid of him. also not personally who I'd bet on to develop a stunning 2027 bike, cf the money point. and then... well, there's ducati. theoretically there is a vr46 seat becoming available in 2026, which... hm, obviously a bit of a complicated situation. idk, this one also heavily depends on certain ducati riders' performances next year! theoretically ducati are kind of sorted for the next few years with this line-up - and theoretically dall'igna has reiterated his faith in aldeguer's ultimate potential, who is still seemingly their longer-term bet. but also, ducati said before this year they had no particular interest in marc - and, well, they didn't need him, but clearly they did want him. and they didn't want their rivals to have him. if acosta continues to look like the next big thing - and given that ducati knows they surely won't be this dominant forever - it would make a lot of sense to poach him while they have the chance. at the very least they can offer him a bike he can win races on tomorrow. acosta I think would prefer to have a manufacturer oriented around him, and would be wary of the lack of an obvious path to the factory team... but well, if that path could open up for anyone, it's him. marc's old and god knows what state his body will be in two years from now, pecco will be pushing thirty, and one of them might take at least a bit of a hit to their stonks in the next couple of years. if you can trust in anything when it comes to ducati, it's that you can't trust them. even by manufacturer standards they're a ruthless bunch - and depending on what everyone's results are looking like in the first half of 2025, I wouldn't put it past them to offer pedro a satellite seat for one year with the guarantee he'd get a factory seat in the following one

my personal vibes-based pick right now for where he ends up is yamaha, but that might be because I've sniffed insane amounts of hopium and have decided yamaha's situation doesn't look All That Bad right now. this is a complete vibes thing and I'm aware pedro will be guided by competitive logic first and foremost, but I just feel pedro would prefer not to go for ducati if there's a plausible alternative. again, honda would make a lot of sense, but they NEED to at least start getting their shit together. aprilia just doesn't really work. so, yamaha. (also, I reckon manufacturers really wouldn't want to give him a one year option while he waits to see how the chips might fall for 2027 - if they have to fuck about with their line-up, they kinda want to lock this guy down.) but also obviously all of this is extremely extremely pointless speculation!! it's just a lil thought experiment, idk any more than you do, god knows how any of this will pan out