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brido · 7 years ago

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An Exhaustive Look at the 2018 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

The 2018 Baseball Hall of Fame ballots were just released. I fucking love that shit. I have time on my hands. And I wanted to weigh in before all the baseball nerds starts going crazy with it in January. Since the writers can only pick 10 guys, that’s what I’ll do too. And I chose Bill James’ Hall of Fame Standards numbers to decide what order I’d go in. I could have picked Jay Jaffe’s JAWS rankings for that. Maybe I will some other year. Maybe that last part about Bill James and Jay Jaffe was just to scare away the people who will complain about Trevor Hoffman because they think the save stat means something. Also, I decided I’ll be skipping over the steroid guys and putting them at the bottom of the list. If there are 10 guys I think should go in before them, I’ll call it a day. Sound fair? Let’s start.

Barry Bonds He goes to the bottom of the list. Let me get back to you on this.

Roger Clemens I’ll have to get back on this too.

Chipper Jones Jones played 19 seasons for the Atlanta Braves. He’s the best N.L. third baseman of his era and the 6th-best third baseman of all time, according to JAWS. Jones is also the 4th-best position player of his era, after Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols. Every player with similar stats is either in the Hall of Fame (Mel Ott, Al Kaline, Mike Schmidt, Jeff Bagwell, Billy Williams, Mickey Mantle) or should/will be (Gary Sheffield, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre). 468 career home runs. 2,726 career hits. He won the N.L. MVP in 1999. The only eligible position player who had a better career is Bonds. This one is easy. My answer: Yes. (1/10).

Manny Ramirez I’ll have to get back to you.

Gary Sheffield Same here.

Vladimir Guerrero Gurrero played for 16 seasons with the Expos, Angels, Rangers and Orioles, swinging at horrible pitches and still hitting .318 on his career. He also hit 449 home runs and collected 2,590 hits, which puts him in selective company with only 20 other players, all of whom are inner-circle Hall of Famers, with the exceptions of Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Rafael Palmeiro, Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera. And at least four of those guys will go in once they’re eligible. Guerrero also has similar career stats to Jeff Bagwell, Jim Rice, Willie Stargell, Billy Williams and Duke Snider. All of which makes it really surprising that WAR is not his best friend here.

When WAR is brought into the equation, Guerrero was only the best right fielder in baseball for one season (2005) and even more surprisingly, in the 1996-2011 timespan, he’s only the 4th-best right fielder behind Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu and Brian Giles. And he’s the 17th-best position player of his era. JAWS ranks him as the 21st-best right fielder in history, which would be behind Larry Walker, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith and Sammy Sosa. Is it possible that old stats love him more than the new ones?

Guerrero received MVP votes in 12 different seasons. He won the A.L. MVP in 2004. And got very close in 2002, 2005 and 2007. If I wanted to be a dick, I’d say Melvin Mora probably should have won in ’04. And I don’t see Vlad as a good candidate in ’07. Nevertheless, Guerrero consistently hit for power and average, only dipping below .300 in his brief call-up in 1996 and not again until 2009 and 2011). And those numbers added up. I mean, Brian Giles didn’t hit 300 HR or even get 1900 hits. So maybe he wasn’t a first ballot Hall of Famer. But I think he should get in. My Answer: Yes. (2/10).

Larry Walker Walker played for 17 seasons with the Expos, Rockies and Cardinals. During his career (1989-2005), he was the best right fielder in baseball. He’s the 10th best right fielder of all time, according to JAWS and the best right fielder ever not in the Hall of Fame. During his own career, Walker is the 5th-highest in WAR after Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Jeff Bagwell and Alex Rodriguez. His career stats (383 HR. 2160 H. .313 AVG) are similar to Duke Snider, Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Mize and Chuck Klein, as well as Vladimir Guerrero. He won the N.L. MVP in 1997. It looks pretty good on paper. You probably just need to decide if you care that Walker was better playing in the thin air of Denver than he was on the road.

If Walker is an iffy Hall of Fame player to begin with, it’s easy to dismiss his numbers as wind-aided. And there’s also the fact that Walker’s career was plagued by injuries (Walker missed 375 games between 1996-2004). So his counting stats are down for the steroid era - an argument that strikes me as fucking idiotic considering we’d be penalizing a player for NOT juicing, while also penalizing players who did. Also, there are stats that exist to adjust for ballparks and Walker still has an OPS+ of 141 for his career. For players with 1900 Games, that’s still 8th among right fielders after Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Hank Aaron, Mel Ott, Frank Robinson, Harry Heilmann and Sam Crawford. They’re all in the Hall of Fame.

Also, everyone seems to be acting like Walker (who had three batting titles) was a one dimensional player. The guy had seven Gold Gloves in right. He was considered an exceptional baserunner too, as if that’s anything. And why are we treating Coors Field like it had magical fucking powers over one player? If Coors Field is so fantastical, why didn’t Andres Galarraga or Ellis Burks or Dante Bichette do what Walker did? Why do they play games there to begin with or even count those stats as valid? By that logic, the Rockies shouldn’t even have a team. By that logic, why not just have one team (it’s gotta be Oakland) where everyone is allowed to take PEDs?

The truth is, Walker was an elite player in Montreal. If you’re just going off his full time there (1990-94), you’d probably choose Walker as your starting MLB right fielder over Tony Gwynn. Then he went to Colorado and kept being good. Let’s not complicate things. So he didn’t hit .380 on the road. If he did we wouldn’t even be having this debate, we’d be naming the Hall of Fame after him. My answer: Yes. (3/10).

Jim Thome Thome played for 22 seasons with the Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Dodgers, Twins and Orioles. He was universally beloved everywhere he went. I don’t know if we need to delve into things too much here. Thome hit 612 career home runs and he’s not suspected of steroids. That’s automatic. But he also has comparable career stats with Frank Thomas, Reggie Jackson, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt and Willie McCovey (plus Sammy Sosa, David Ortiz and Fred McGriff). JAWS ranks him as the 10th-best first baseman of all time. I think he should have been the A.L. MVP in 2002. My answer: Yes. (4/10).

Mike Mussina Mussina pitched for 18 seasons with the Orioles and Yankees. And I’d say he was the ace of his staff 12 of those years, which is incredible. I think that if you finish in the top 10 in your league in WAR, FIP and ERA, you had an elite season. Mussina had 10 of those elite seasons, including his final season in 2008. That’s what you call consistency. He finished in the top 5 in Cy Young balloting six different times. And I think he should have won it in 2001. Mussina has similar career numbers to Juan Marichal, Jim Palmer and Carl Hubbell (as well as Curt Schilling). He’s the 28th-best pitcher of all time, according to JAWS (behind Roger Clemens, Jim McCormick and Schilling). And I’d say for his own playing era (1991-2008), he’s the 5th-best pitcher behind Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Clemens and Pedro Martinez. He even won seven Gold Gloves at pitcher. The fact that we’re even entertaining putting in Trevor Hoffman before Mussina is mind boggling to me.

I’d guess the one thing bringing down Messina’s chances might be his ERA (3.68). But his adjusted ERA+ (123) might make up for pitching in the steroid era. And not to beat a dead horse, but Mussina finished 3rd in the American League in ERA in 1992, 4th in 1994, 4th in 1995, 6th in 1997, 6th in 1998, 3rd in 1999, 3rd in 2000, 2nd in 2001, 8th in 2003, 4th in 2006 and 6th in 2008. My answer: Yes. (5/10).

Sammy Sosa Let me get back to you on that.

Jeff Kent Kent played 17 seasons for the Blue Jays, Mets, Indians, Giants, Astros and Dodgers. He was the best second baseman in the Majors in 2000 and 2002. He was the best in the N.L. from 2000-2002 and during the course of his playing era (1992-2008), he was the second-best second baseman after Craig Biggio. Kent’s career numbers are also similar to Jim Rice and Ryne Sandberg. His 377 home runs is the most ever for a second baseman. He won the 2000 N.L. MVP, even though I would have considered him 4th-best in the league that year.

Here’s the thing; since everything Kent did seems to hinge on comparing him to other second basemen, his JAWS ranking finally does him in. He’s 20th-best all-time, behind Bobby Grich, Robinson Cano, Chase Utley, Lou Whitaker, Willie Randolph, Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedrioa. But, hey, he was on Survior and has the dumbest DL stint I can think of right now. My answer: No.

Edgar Martinez Martinez played for 18 seasons, all with the Seattle Mariners. Even with Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez on his team, Martinez was the best player on the Mariners in 1990, 1992, 1995 and 1999. He was the best third baseman in baseball in 1990. And he was the best DH in 1995, 1996 and 1998. During the time Martinez was a DH (1995-2004), no one was better. And he’s probably the 4th-best DH of all time after Frank Thomas, Jim Thome and Paul Molitor. He’s the only DH to win a batting title and they even named the DH award after him. But first, you just have to decide how you feel about the DH.

I say if American League pitchers (who don’t hit) can get in, so can a DH. At least they play every day. Now that that’s out of the way, we have do decide if Martinez’ numbers good enough. That part’s iffy. No one with similar numbers is in the Hall of Fame. But he did have six elite years between 1990-2000. I would have even given him the A.L. MVP in 1995. And if you look at all players’ WAR during that 11-year span, Martinez would be 5th overall, behind Barry Bonds, Griffey Jr., Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas.

Still not convinced? Okay. I already mentioned Major League Baseball naming the DH award after him. That’s gotta be something. And for my closing argument, I’ll use “The Double”. In 1995, Martinez closed out his outstanding ALDS against the Yankees with that famous walk-off double that scored Griffey. It not only sent the Mariners to the ALCS for the first time ever, it also might have saved baseball in Seattle. The excitement surrounding the team led to funding for Safeco Field and the rest is history. There are people in the Hall of Fame for dumber reasons than that. Except in Edgar’s case, you’ve got both Pedro Martinez and Mariano Rivera siting him as one of the toughest batters they ever faced. My answer: Yes (6/10).

Fred McGriff McGriff played for 19 seasons with the Blue Jays, Padres, Braves, Devil Rays, Cubs and Dodgers. He has similar career numbers to Willie McCovey, Willie Stargell, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas and Billy Williams (as well as David Ortiz and Gary Sheffield). He also had five elite seasons between 1988 and 1994. I actually would have given him the A.L. MVP in 1989. And if he hit 7 more home runs in his career, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.

In the meantime, JAWS isn’t doing McGriff any favors. He’s 31st all-time at first base, behind Albert Pujols, Jim Thome, Miguel Cabrera, Rafael Palmeiro, Todd Helton, Mark McGwire, Keith Hernandez, Joey Votto, John Olerud, Jason Giambi, Will Clark, David Ortiz and Mark Teixeira. I’d say in his own era (1986-2004), he’d be 5th, behind Jeff Bagwell, Palmeiro, Frank Thomas, McGwire and tied with Olerud. None of that is horrible company. Some of those are steroids guys. Some will probably get in at some point or are otherwise worth revisiting. I just wouldn’t say it’s helping.

So I have to go back and stare hard at that 493 number and think about the strike-shortened 1994 season, which was ironically the last year McGriff was an elite player. McGriff had 34 home runs through 113 games. There were 48 games remaining, McGriff had only missed one game that far and he was averaging a home run every 3.4 games. Even if he’d slowed down, seven more home runs in 1994 would have been a lock. McGriff may have been relatively forgotten because of the steroid era. But he was positively fucked by that strike.

If people use ‘Coors Field Logic’ on Larry Walker, why can’t they use ‘Strike Logic’ on McGriff? At least Strike Logic makes actual logical sense. And if baseball turned a blind eye to the very steroid era that erased McGriff from relevancy in order to restore public interest following the strike, that means that not only did the strike fuck the Crime Dog, but the quick fix did too. From 1988-1994, McGriff was the 4th-best position player in overall WAR after Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson and Cal Ripken. After that, everyone started pumping themselves full of growth hormone and bull semen or whatever until leading the league with 35 home runs seemed more like something that would happen at the All-Star Break. McGriff has been wronged. I think that should be corrected. And I hope he wears that foam Tom Emanski cap on his plaque. My Answer: Yes. (7/10).

Curt Schilling Schilling played for 20 seasons for the Orioles, Astros, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Red Sox. And he’s a fucking asshole. But that’s not really in question here. Schilling was elite for 8 different seasons between 1992 and 2004. He has similar career stats to John Smoltz and Don Drysdale. JAWS ranks him as the 27th-best pitcher of all time (only behind Roger Clemens and Jim McCormick for non-Hall of Famers). In his career (1988-2007), Schilling is the 5th-best, overall in WAR behind Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. He has 3 rings. He has the Bloody Sock game. And he’s a fucking asshole.

I guess starting public feuds with sportswriters isn’t always the best idea when those same sportswriters vote for these kinds of things. He’s also a Born Again Christian Creationist and a Trump guy and a Breitbart guy and a homophobe. And he’s also apparently challenging Elizabeth Warren’s Senate seat in 2018. And he’d probably be a nightmare to the steroids guys on the Veteran’s Committee. Plus, you know his Cooperstown speech would be a goddamned spectacle. And then you start to think of reasons to not vote for the guy. But I honestly liked him as a color commentator on ESPN and I have to keep telling myself that all his extracurriculars have nothing to do with what he did on the mound. He’s still an asshole though. My answer: Yes. (8/10).

Johnny Damon Damon played for 18 seasons with the Royals, Athletics, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Rays and Indians. And he stayed healthy and got a lot of hits. 2,769 to be exact. He was never an elite player or an elite center fielder (I’d have him 5th in his own era behind Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, Carlos Beltran and Mike Cameron). He was rarely the best player on his own team. He just happened to get a lot of hits. That puts his career numbers similar to guys like Paul Molitor, Tim Raines, Roberto Alomar, Robin Yount, Lou Brock and Roberto Clemente. But they all had other reasons for getting in. Damon is the 22nd-best center fielder of all time on JAWS. He’s less like those Hall of Fame players than he is Vada Pinson or Steve Finley. I loved some of his big moments on the Red Sox. And his hair was fun. He’s just not getting in. My answer: No.

Omar Vizquel Vizquel played for 24 seasons with the Mariners, Indians, Giants, Rangers, White Sox and Blue Jays. He played in 4 different decades and was the last Major Leaguer born in the 60’s and the last to play in the 80’s. This one is difficult because WAR is not Vizquel’s friend. He was never the best player on his own team. He wasn’t an elite shortstop, overall in his own time. JAWS ranks him as the 42nd-best shortstop of all time. And I don’t feel like naming all the non-Hall-of-Famers ahead of him. In his own lengthy era (1989-2012), he’d be behind Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Barry Larkin, Cal Ripken and Jimmy Rollins. So what argument is there?

Well, Vizquel has almost identical stats to Luis Aparicio and Rabbit Maranville. Aparicio even allowed his number to be un-retired when Vizquel went to the White. Sox in 2010. He’s also got similar stats to Ozzie Smith, Luke Appling, Pee Wee Reese and Nellie Fox. He was a defensive specialist in an era of big, slugging shortstops. And he has 11 Gold Gloves to show for it. Oh, and on top of that, he collected 2,877 hits over that long career.

But was he Aparicio? Aparicio got MVP votes in 10 different seasons. He finished second in 1959. He was a 10 time All-Star. He led the league in stolen bases his first 9 seasons in the Majors. On top of that, Aparicio had 9 Gold Gloves. From 1956-1973, Aparicio was second in WAR among shortstops to Ernie Banks. Vizquel didn’t do those things. I think I gotta hold off for now. My answer: No. But I could change my mind.

Scott Rolen Rolen played 17 seasons for the Phillies, Cardinals, Blue Jays and Reds. He’s one of the 3-5 best defensive third basemen of all time and, I’d say, the 3rd-best overall third baseman of his era after Alex Rodriguez and Chipper Jones (who will also be on the ballot for the first time). Rolen has a ring with the 2006 Cardinals. And according to JAWS and WAR, he’s the 10th best 3rd baseman of all time. Which all sounds great on paper. I just don’t know if it’s good enough.

Chipper Jones should get in before Rolen. So let’s take Chipper out of the equation for just a second. Rolen was only the best player on his own team in 1997, ’98 and ’04. He was only the best third baseman in baseball in 2002 and 2003. Of the top 10 similar players, only one (Ron Santo) is in the Hall of Fame. His Career Standards Number is a 40, which would make him below average for a Hall of Famer. 316 career home runs and 2,077 hits are good, but not great for his era. And although he ranked among the top 10 in the league in WAR in 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006, I would have only considered him a legitimate MVP candidate one time and that’s 2004, when I would have considered him 7th. Now it’s okay to go back and remember that Chipper Jones is also on the ballot.

It’s hard for me to look anyone in the eye and say the 10th-best at any position shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame. But then again, Ted Simmons, Bobby Grich, Bill Dahlen, Kenny Lofton and Larry Walker, not to mention Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Pete Rose, Manny Ramirez and six relief pitchers would all be in the same boat. Maybe that shoulder injury that nagged him throughout his prime got the best of him. But I think he’s gotta sit out at least this round. My Answer: No. But I could easily change my mind.

Jamie Moyer Moyer played for 25 seasons with the Cubs, Rangers, Cardinals, Orioles, Red Sox, Mariners, Phillies and Rockies. That’s an insane amount of seasons. Moyer is the only pitcher to throw shutouts in four different decades. He became the oldest player to do a lot of different things. I mean, he won 100 games after he turned 40. It’s crazy. Especially with that 81 mph fastball. I think Moyer is a great story. And I loved his resurgence on the Mariners. But he’s the 19th-best pitcher of his own era and 132nd all time. I’m impressed. I just wouldn’t put him in the Hall. My answer: No.

Carlos Lee Lee played for 14 seasons with the White Sox, Brewers, Rangers, Astros and Marlins. He hit 358 home runs in his career, but was the 13th-best left fielder of his own era and 72nd-best ever on JAWS. No.

Johan Santana Santana played for 12 seasons with the Twins and Mets, where he was usually the ace of both teams. He won two Cy Young Awards in Minnesota. I think he should have easily won three (the voters fucking BLEW IT in 2005). His peak is phenomenal. His career numbers are not. So you need to figure out how you feel about about that. Just try to keep in mind that a lot of more worthy pitchers (including Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina) aren’t in yet.

The go-to guy for a high peak without the career stats is always Sandy Koufax. But Koufax was putting up WARs of 9’s and 10’s. In Santana’s four-year reign of dominance, he had three seasons with a 6.7 WAR or higher and four total with a 5 or higher. That’s really good. But Dwight Gooden did that. Kevin Brown did that. Curt Schilling was above a 6.7 four times and above a 5 WAR six times. And if you just want to start listing guys who were above a 5 WAR on four separate occasions, we can throw in Fernando Valenzuela, Bret Saberhagen (5), Frank Viola, David Cone (5), Mike Mussina (10 fucking times), Kevin Appier, Andy Pettite and Javier Vazquez. I mean, Felix Hernandez has done it five times. Clayton Kershaw has already done it six times. Chris Sale has already done it. And if that many people have done it, it’s not quite great.

Fittingly, Santana is the 6th-best pitcher in WAR over the period of 2000-2012. JAWS ranks him as the 85th-best pitcher of all time. Nobody with similar numbers is in the Hall of Fame. Who knows what would have happened if not for injuries, but fans can still look fondly upon Santana for the first no-hitter in Mets history (even though Carlos Beltran should have broken it up in the 6th), the even-better 17-strikeout, 8 inning gem against the Rangers in 2007 with a 95 Game Score (the highest ever for a non-complete game), the Major League Triple Crown win in 2006, that insane second half in 2004 and that devastating changeup. Unfortunately, he’s just not a Hall of Famer. My Answer: No.

Andruw Jones Jones played for 17 seasons with the Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees. He was hitting home runs in the World Series at 19. He was considered fat, washed-up and lazy by the time he was 30. And yet, he’s the greatest center fielder of his era (1996-2012), he’s the 7th-best overall position player of the same era and he might be the (gasp) greatest defensive center fielder of all time. And he has 10 consecutive Gold Gloves to show for it. JAWS ranks him as the 11th-greatest center fielder in history. Imagine what he would have done if he wasn’t lazy.

First, we probably need to get past the fact that Kenny Lofton (10th on JAWS) and Jim Edmonds (15th) didn’t make it past the first ballot. In Lofton’s own era (1991-2007) he was third in WAR to Ken Griffey Jr. and Jones, himself. In Edmonds’ era (1993-2010) he was second to Jones. Lofton was more of a stolen bases guy. Edmonds has no ‘black ink’ type of honors. Andruw Jones has a home run and an RBI title from 2005, when he hit 51 bombs. He hit 434 on his career. This is a defensive specialist, mind you. His WAR7 peak is 9th-highest in history (everyone above him is in the Hall, except for Mike Trout), while Lofton’s is 13th and Edmonds’ is 17th.

On top of all of that, the Braves made it to the post season every year from 1995-2005. Jones was there every year since ’96. And if you look at the WAR of every Brave from 95-05, Chipper Jones is first with a 57.3. And Andruw Jones is second at 55.0. If you make it 96-05, when he was actually on the roster, Andruw beats Chipper by 0.5 runs. He also beats Greg Maddux (50.0), John Smoltz (39.7) and Tom Glavine (27.1). They're all gonna be in the Hall of Fame. Why not Andruw too? You know, either that or we’re gonna have to wait until 2023 for Carlos Beltran to get in at center field. Or like, whenever Mike Trout retires. My answer: Yes. (9/10).

Wait. Okay, let me go back to Scott Rolen for just a second. I starting to feel bad that I said yes to 4 guys (Edgar Martinez, Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero and Fred McGriff) who had lower career WARs than Rolen's. I also said yes to 3 guys (Jim Thome, Guerrero and McGriff) who had lower peaks than Rolen's. I didn’t like Rolen’s counting numbers (316 HR, 2077 H) but I’d say yes to Martinez (309 HR) and Jones (1933 H). He’s also higher on the JAWS ranking than Martinez by 0.8 points. No, Rolen’s not Chipper Jones. And there’s no award named after him. And he didn’t save baseball in Seattle. And he’s not the very greatest defensively at his position. And he didn’t win an MVP or come painfully close to hitting 500 home runs. But if I’m gonna stay consistent, I have to put him in. Yes. (10/10). I feel okay about that.

So there you have it. My apologies to Chris Carpenter, Billy Wagner, Carlos Zambrano, Hideki Matsui, Aubrey Huff, Kevin Millwood, Trevor Hoffman, Orlando Hudson, Livan Hernandez, Kerry Wood, Brad Lidge, Jason Isringhausen and also Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield and Sammy Sosa for not reviewing your careers. I just found 10 guys more deserving.

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