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joezworld · 4 years

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Story - The Railway Prometheus, or, when the Diesels discover fire

Based off of this headcanon that I made.

And this one.

And also parts of this one.

I decided to write an actual honest-to-god RWS style thing

Dragons teaching Diesels

2001

Most diesel engines dislike being cold started.

Cold starting occurs when a diesel is started while their fuel and engine block are both cold. Diesel engines do not work like petrol engines, which use a spark plug to ignite the fuel, and instead compress the fuel vapour, causing it to ignite on its own. This is called compression ignition.

When the engine block or the fuel is cold, the fuel does not compress properly, and it means that some of the engine’s cylinders will fire, while others do not. This causes the engine to fire unevenly, makes a ghastly knocking sound, and produces a lot of smoke and soot - commonly called clag.

On the Island of Sodor, a cold started diesel also produces another ghastly noise - this time coming from the Steam Engines watching. They assume that something has gone dreadfully wrong, and make many unhelpful comments about the clag and the noise.

Bear and BoCo are well aware of what cold starting is, and try to avoid being near other engines - partly so that they can cold start without Gordon or James’ unhelpful commentary, but mostly so that no one could hear them yelling...

“FUCK!” BoCo swore from within a cloud of soot and clag. It was a bitterly cold February morning, and nobody wanted to start properly. His engine was knocking like it belonged in an old jalopy, and he felt most uncomfortable.

Bear grimaced in sympathy as he shot his own tower of clag into the otherwise crisp morning air. His motor mounts were going to ache later, and- “Aggh!” He cried as fire shot out of his exhaust vents.

Another issue with cold starting was that unburnt fuel would build up within an engine’s exhaust manifold. Once the manifold got hot enough, the fuel would then spontaneously combust - sending huge gouts of flame out of the exhaust stacks. Bear hated it when that happened, as it caused a very unpleasant sensation. He knew BoCo hated it as well.

But, for some diesels on the island, it seemed to be the highlight of their day…

“Three, two, one, GO!” shouted Pip and Emma in unison. At their call, massive pillars of flame shot out both sets of exhaust stacks, bathing the yard in a bright orange light for a moment.

“How do you two enjoy that?” He asked. Before this winter the HST pair had been stabled at Barrow, but had been moved down to the Tidmouth diesel shed in the summer of 2000. Now that he was regularly in close contact with them, their numerous eccentricities began to stand out.

“It’s fun!” Came the response from the blue and yellow passenger train.

From inside his cloud, BoCo hacked incredulously. “Fucking How?!”

“You have to do it right.” Said Emma. The massive grin on her face meant that she was eagerly anticipating somebody asking her to demonstrate the ‘right way’.

“There’s a wrong way?” Bear raised an eyebrow. He wasn’t letting her get what she wanted that easily.

“Of course there is! It’s the wrong way if it hurts!”

“We’re catching on fire. How does that not hurt?”

“By being a dragon, silly!”

“What.”

“Just be a dragon!” Pip shouted from the other end of the HST trainset.

“You still haven’t made sense.” Bear puzzled as his engine finally started firing on all cylinders.

More bursts of fire belched from within the BoCo-shaped cloud - his motor just wasn’t having it today.

“Bear - stop. What is the right way Emma?” Implored the cloud.

“I - I don’t know how to explain it,” she began. “But you need to - it feels like-”

“Just breathe in through your exhaust manifold!” Bellowed Pip, as if this made any sense.

After a few minutes of listening to BoCo making bizarre sounding whistling noises, Bear began to think that Pip and Emma were making fun of him. His only evidence against this was Emma’s genuinely earnest expression as she tried to talk the diesel through this ‘breathing exercise’.

Finally, a hacking cough emerged from the Cloud Formerly Known as Boco, before a giant column of flame shot ten feet horizontally out of where BoCo’s mouth would be.

Swearing loudly, the Hymek lurched backwards as Pip and Emma cheered.

“Was that supposed to happen?!” He cried.

“Yes!” Pip called as BoCo began to fire on all cylinders.

Bear goggled at her, to which she wryly grinned, before shooting her own blast of flames - right out of her mouth.

“See, this is why we’re the Dragon Sisters!” She said exuberantly.

“Really?”

“Nah. But it sure is fun!”

As Bear pondered the class 43’s sanity, BoCo’s cloud dissipated, revealing a happy Metrovick - engine now firing on all cylinders. “Pip, Emma, however did you learn how that worked?” He asked as his crew emerged from the yard office - totally ignorant to the many bursts of fire that had just happened.

“I dunno,” Emma said after a moment of thinking. “It just sort of happened. But it’s really cool! I can do it whenever I want to as well!”

To prove this, she smiled, and a small burst of flames licked around her teeth, but didn’t explode outwards like before.

“What an incredibly odd thing for the factory to do to you. Carry on.” BoCo was at a loss for words and was unsure if he should be concerned, but decided that discretion was the better part of valor, and said no more as his crew ran across the yard and into the warmth of his cab. His cold engine had made them very late, and they wasted no time in driving him away.

“You weren’t built like that, were you?” Bear said as BoCo disappeared into the distance.

“No.” Said Emma.

“Can you teach me?”

----------------------------------------------------

Revenge is best served on fire

BoCo lived on Edward’s branch line, serving as the primary freight diesel for the industries in Suddery and Brendam. As a result of this, he is often forced to be in close proximity to Bill and Ben.

Bill and Ben are two yellow menaces tank engines that work for the China Clay company in Brendam. Originally, they were restricted to working just on the small industrial spur that served the clay pits, but as cargo traffic increased in the late 1990s, they had been given permission to travel as far as Wellsworth to deliver their trains of clay directly to the main line.

This sounds like good news for BoCo, as it means less work for him, but in actuality it is the opposite.

You see, Bill and Ben are very dedicated pranksters, and spend many hours having fun at BoCo and Edward’s expense. While the pranks only work occasionally, their goal of annoying BoCo and Edward is often met regardless.

One day in March, BoCo was resting between trains at Wellsworth Station when Bill and Ben peeped into the yard, a long string of clay trucks rattling behind them.

Maybe they’ll be too tired to do anything. He thought to himself.

“Oh! There’s BoCo!”

“He’s sleeping! Let’s do plan seven!”

How naive I must be.

BoCo kept his eyes shut as Bill and Ben began babbling to each other in German. He had no idea how or when the terrible twosome had managed to learn it, but it had proved most irritating - which was probably why they learned it in the first place.

“Mal sehen, ob er das merkt!”

“Ja!”

BoCo had no idea what they were saying, but knew he’d be annoyed by it. Perhaps a pre-emptive strike could be arranged…

Breathing in deeply through his exhaust vents like Pip and Emma had taught him, BoCo waited until the twins drew nearer.

As they got close, he dropped his jaw open as if he was about to begin snoring. After waiting a few more seconds, he let out the deep breath he was holding.

A massive blast of fire shot out of the Diesel’s mouth - BoCo couldn’t see it, but it almost scorched Ben's eyebrows off.

“SCATTER!”

“AAAAAAHHHH!”

The sound of frantic steam engines vanished into the distance, and BoCo sighed in relief.

For a moment, all was still.

For a moment -

“What in the world was that?!”

BoCo cracked open an eye to see Henry, sitting at the signals with a load of hoppers. He had seen everything, and wasn’t sure if he was seeing things or not.

“Indigestion.” Was all BoCo said before going back to sleep.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Wendell, Dragons, and Bears, Oh My!

Despite what many engines may claim, Pip, Emma, Bear, and BoCo were not the only diesels on the North Western Railway. There is also Wendell.

Wendell is the works diesel for Crovan’s Gate works. He is a Blue and Yellow Class 47, and spends most of his days rescuing broken down engines and returning empty stock from the works to the yards where they’re needed. Because he normally meets engines while they are broken down, he is regarded well by all the engines on the Island - even James, who normally views Diesel traction with suspicion.

Just like the other diesels on the Island, Wendell dislikes cold starts, but has much less experience with them than the others do, as he has a nice warm shed at the works that he lives in year-round!

Bear and BoCo aren’t jealous, but Pip and Emma are! No matter how much they enjoy cold-starting, they still don’t enjoy being left outside in the frigid air.

One morning in April 2001, Wendell was dispatched to Tidmouth - Henry had failed, and an engine was needed to take his morning trains.

Wendell had agreed - in no small part because he didn’t know that Henry’s ‘morning’ included the Flying Kipper, which left Tidmouth at 3:15 in the ‘morning’!

To make things worse, there was an unseasonable cold snap, with temperatures dropping below freezing overnight.

Wendell missed his shed as he shivered in the yard at Tidmouth. His engine was cold, and the fuel that his driver had pumped in wasn’t any warmer.

His starter motor tried and tried to make him start, and when it eventually happened, he was enveloped in a cloud of soot and clag as his engine fired on maybe three of its twelve cylinders.

“Yuck!” He moaned as the cloud thickened. “I can’t see anything! And my motor mounts hurt!”

“Breathe through your exhaust!” Came a cry through the haze.

“What?”

“Breathe in through your exhaust manifold! It should help!” The mystery voice said again.

“Okay!” It wasn’t like he would lose anything by trying, so Wendell tried, and eventually managed to take a deep breath in through his exhaust stacks.

Unfortunately, this meant that he inhaled a lot a clag and fuel vapor, which caused him to start coughing and hacking until -

“Yipe!” A jet of fire shot out of his mouth!

A cheer broke out from beyond the haze as his engine started to fire on more cylinders. In a few minutes, Wendell was much warmer, and his engine was firing on all cylinders as the haze began to clear, revealing Bear and Pip.

“Isn’t that better?” The HST called to him.

“Yes, but - what?” Wendell tripped over his words. “How does that happen?”

“We’re not sure,” Said Bear, as flames danced around the inside of his mouth. “but it works wonders on cold nights like this.”

“Ooookaaay.” Said the Works Diesel slowly. “So, I can just do that now?”

“Pretty much!” Pip said cheerfully.

Wendell, feeling like he had just been initiated into a cult, said his goodbyes as his crew stumbled up to him, coffee thermoses firmly in their grasp.

This island is insane. He thought to himself. But I live here. So I must be insane too.

As he was driven towards the docks, he breathed in through his vents again, and felt a pleasant warmth fill his mouth.

He smiled to himself. Maybe being a bit crazy isn't so bad.

--------------------------------

Fire Breathing Dragons

While Pip and Emma live on the Island of Sodor, their duties require them to travel from Tidmouth to London and back on a daily basis. Ordinarily there is no issue with this, but every now and again, they will be forced to stay the night in London.

One night in the summer of 2002, planned track work meant that their return service couldn’t be run, and the sisters found themselves in a very shabby looking depot outside of Euston station.

God, this place has gone downhill since BR. Pip thought to her sister.

Too right. I think the shunter said that this was going to be torn down after they replace us with Pendolinos. Emma replied, referring to their class as a whole. It was an open secret that the Intercity 125 sets were going to be replaced with new tilting trains on the West Coast Main Line - soon the Dragon Sisters would be the only HST on the line.

“Eurrgh,” Oiled a voice from a few lines away. “Must we stay here tonight?”

Pip was blocked by a rake of coaches, but Emma could see that there was another HST set a few roads away. The power car looked disgusted to have to be in this shed.

“Yes Chauncey,” Came the voice of the other power car on the set. “We have to stay here tonight. I’m not any more pleased about it than you.”

“I know, 092, I know,” Chauncey said resignedly. “At least it could be worse.”

“How can it be worse?”

“Well, that other HST set could be awake - then we’d have to talk to them!”

“Oh heavens! I hadn’t even thought of that!”

Well they seem nice. Pip sarcastically thought to Emma - clearly Chauncey and 092 didn’t share the same mental link that they did, and assumed that the sisters were asleep.

Yeah - like Gordon when he gets boiler sludge. Emma replied. She vaguely remembered working with 092 back in the BR days, and didn’t have fond memories.

Several hours passed. Pip and Emma were idly discussing the newest gossip that they’d heard, a few trains rumbled past on the WCML, and Chauncey and 092 made inane conversion around which railroad in the country was worse than the others.

Emma was on the edge of drifting off to sleep when 092 spoke up.

“Oh! That’s right! What about the No-Where Railway? That place must be a pit!”

He didn’t. Emma thought.

“You mean that one off of Furness? The retirement home for antiquated heaps?”

He did. Her sister replied.

“Excuse me!” Pip spoke out loud for the first time that night. “But are you, by chance, talking about the North Western Railway?”

“Oh goodness!” Chauncey said in fright. “I’m sorry! Did we wake you?”

“No,” Said Emma. “What were you saying about the NWR?”

“The No-Where Railway? There isn’t much to say about it really,” 092 said blithely. “It’s a hole in the countryside that you shovel old metal into - I’d be ruder, but I don’t think that they ever got the notice that BR dissolved, so I can’t blame them.”

“92?” Said Chauncey, who had suddenly noticed the lettering on Emma’s side - and the expression on her face. “Perhaps you should stop talking now.”

“Why? It isn’t like they’re from that island - they don’t look like they came out of a black and white film.” 092 said, unaware of who he was speaking to.

“Actually,” ground out Emma. “We are from that Island.”

“Oh. well how unfortunate for you,” 092 sniffed. “Tell me, do they still believe that Beeching is alive there?”

The late night trains at Euston Station practically jumped off of their rails at the barrage of sounds that echoed throughout the station yard. It sounded like the Tyrannosaurus from Jurassic Park was yelling at someone, and punctuating their conversation with massive fireballs.

Fire crews from Railtrack and the borough of Camden responded, but found no traces of any fire - or a Tyrannosaur.

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kyber-kisses · 4 years

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Calling Out (Part 2)

Dean Winchester x Reader

Find Part 1 HERE

Warnings: description of injuries, near death experience, hospitals. . . angst.

Summary: when a case goes sideways leaving the reader in the hospital, Dean, Sam, and Charlie search desperately for a way to help her. . . But time is running out.

A/n: ok so I know it’s been literal months since I wrote the first part but it was only since yesterday that inspiration finally struck! Hope you enjoy! (also all the medical stuff i just searched so if you actually know your stuff please don’t attack me.)

“Charlie, Sam- please tell me you’ve found something.”

Shoulders slumping Dean let out another sigh, halting his pacing momentarily to look over at the duo seated across the otherwise empty waiting room.

Pacing. He had been doing so much of that lately, especially ever since your monitors went crazy and all of a sudden he, (alongside Sam and Charlie) was being pushed out of your room by several nurses. Dean had tried fighting against them, not wanting to leave you in the hands of strangers. What if you woke up? What if you had no idea where you were? What if something happened and you didn’t- Dean quickly shook his head in an attempt to clear the terrible thoughts from his head. No, you were going to be fine. You were always fine. You were the strongest out of all of them.

But all he could think about was how sudden it had been. You were fine one second and the next? Your heart monitor was going insane and your chest was rising and falling in an unsteady rhythm and he thought he was watching you die. Your eyes still closed, locking you in a monster induced coma.

He couldn’t remember the last time he felt that scared.

It also didn’t help that that had all happens hours ago. Hours. Hours of pacing back and forth, back and forth until he thought his legs might fall off.

“No, sorry Dean. I’ve raked through everything we had on djinns but I can’t find anything.”

The older Winchester let out another groan before turning to the redhead next to his brother. “Charlie?” He tried, a twang of hopefulness in his voice.

“I’m still looking. If I do find something you’ll be the first person I tell.”

Running a slightly shaky hand through his hair, Dean continued his pacing. If he wasn’t careful he might wear tracks in the sandpaper like carpet.

“Dean, do you really want to be talking about the case right now?” Sam questioned, closing the book he had in front of him so he could give his brother his attention. “I mean, Y/N-“

“I literally want to talk about anything that isn’t the possibility of Y/N dying in the other room.” Dean stopped again, his voice ever so slightly cracking as he spoke.

Dean watched as Sam opened his mouth, clearly ready to speak. . But was stopped short when the massive set of doors behind him swung open, the nurse from earlier stepping out into the waiting room, clipboard in hand. It didn’t even take Dean a second before he was spinning around to give her his full attention. His heart sinking lower into his chest at the expression on her face.

“Y/N, is she-“ he couldn’t bring himself to say the word. Afraid that if he muttered it it might come true.

You weren’t dead. You weren’t.

“We’ve done what we could, but she’s stable for now.”

“What happened?” Pushing himself out of his own seat, Sam crossed the waiting room with Charlie close on his heels.

“It’s called a primary spontaneous pneumothorax. It typically happens when there is a rupture of a small air sac on the outside of the lung. This causes air to leak into the cavity around the lung.” The nurse explained, tucking her board under her arm. “ it caused a partial lung collapse but it wasn’t too sever meaning it’s possible for it to heal on its own. As of right now she only needs oxygen and rest.”

Dean was silent as he tried to comprehend what she had said. She made it seem like everything was going to be fine. . . But none of it sounded fine at all. You were still in a magically induced coma and looking like you got run over by a freight train. Now you had a partially collapsed lung to add to it all.

“Ok. . . But how did this happen? I thought she was stable?” He finally spoke, running a hand over his mouth as he tried to wrap his head around it.

“Her fractured rib was the probable cause of it, but we’re keeping a close eye on her still. Don’t you worry.” She smiled.

She fucking smiled.

Dean bit his tongue so he didn’t lash out. Don’t worry? That’s all he had been doing. That all he was going to do until you were safe and fully healed.

“You’re welcome to go back and see her.”

“Is she still-“

“Unconscious? I’m afraid so.” The nurse nodded. “We’re looking for a cause to that as well.”

“Well you’re not gonna find one.” Dean muttered softly under his breath, already turning to head towards the room you had previous been set up in. He had already been separated from you for too long.

It took everything in the hunter not to book it full speed down the mostly empty hallway towards your room, his heart thumping a staccato rhythm in his chest. He had left Charlie and Sam in the dust to collect their laptops and lore books- but he didn’t care. He needed to be near you. Watching over you. Keeping you safe from threats that doctors couldn’t handle.

When he stepped into your room he saw another nurse still at your bedside tapping at things on the monitor while glancing over at you every few seconds or so. Other than that the room was empty.

“She’s doing well all things considered.” The dark haired nurse nodded, looking over her shoulder at Dean momentarily before going back to her task. “You’re wife’s a tough one. She should pull through.”

“Oh she not my-“ he started, pushing down the sudden heat that had invaded his cheeks.

“Well anyway, she’s lucky to have someone who cares so much about her.” Backing away, the nurse gathered her things and walked out the door, passing Sam and Charlie as she did.

As the older Winchester stepped closer to the bed he felt his heart drop all over again. You looked worse than last time. Your skin was several shades paler and your cheeks were getting hollow. It didn’t help that your injuries were taking forever to heal. Sure it had only been a week since this all happened, but you looked so weak, so fragile. And those were words that should never be used to describe you.

“Dean?”

“Hmm?” Unable to tear his eyes from you, Dean only lent his ears to his brother, resuming his spot from before and slipping his hand into yours. Your pulse allowing him to let out a sigh of relief.

“Charlie and I were talking, and we thought we might try the library a few blocks away. See if they have any more lore books we can look through.”

“Yeah, yeah. You kids go have fun.” He muttered , shifting ever so slightly to wipe a strand of hair away from your eyes, being careful not to disturb the oxygen tube. One wrong move and he was afraid you might shattered like china.

“Dean, you need a break too. The nurses will watch over her.” Sam sighed, re-adjusting his belongings in his arms.

“I got one when we were stuck in that waiting room for several hours. I’m fine.”

“Sams right, Dean. You at least need to sleep-“

“Charlie, I said I’m fine.” Letting out another sigh, Dean allowed his elbows to rest on the side of your hospital bed, resting his cheek on the back of your hand. “Call me if you guys find anything.”

Drawing in a breath, Sam gave into defeat before sharing a look with the red-head. Neither of them had ever seen Dean like this and it was just another thing to add to the growing list of concerns.

“Alright, fine. Do you at least want us to pick you up some food?”

“I don’t care.” The words leaving Dean so quietly that they almost didn’t hear it.

Giving you and Dean one last look the two left the room once more, carrying most of the hope with them. Deans was fading. He didn’t want it to but he couldn’t stop it. He was afraid.

“You are not allowed do die on me, you got that?” He swallowed, already feeling a lump form in his throat. “I’ve got some really important things I need to say to you so I’m gonna need you to get better.”

Dean paused once more, contemplating whether or not to say the words bouncing around inside his head. He’d never said them out loud before. Even just thinking about it made his tongue feel like lead. . .But no one was here. No one was listening.

“You know, I didn’t want to fall in love. Not at all. Because this life, you know- you can’t afford getting close. There’s a good chance it will slip away if you do. . . But at some point you smiled, and holy shit, I blew it.” He squeezed your hand gently, praying that you would open your eyes at any second. “Maybe it was just bound it happen. I’ve known you for so long. . . Anyways I’m gonna need you to pull through because I want to say it to your face. I can’t lose you. Not now, not ever.”

Leaning back in his seat, Dean raked his freehand through his hair (a nervous tick he had picked up over the years.) watching you sadly. Sam and Charlie would find something. He knew they would.

“C’mon Y/N, you gotta wake up.”

To Be Continued. . .

SPN Taglist (still open!)

@familybusinesswritingbro@a–1–1–3 @awesome-badass-cafeteria-sauce @music-is-all-i-need @agusdoti @callmekda @jordangdelacruz @orphiceseum @andthatsmyworld @marvelfangirllll @fandomnerdespressourself @gladiosamicitias @castielsangelsx @lxstgxrl-ck @tis-i-the-wayward-idgit @amendoise @phoenixuprisingsstuff @ericalynne007 @kaitlaitlaitl @neerness @totallyluciferr @supernaturalenchanted @dolanfivsosxox@supernatural-ocs @emptycanvasposts @akshi8278 @defenderrosetyler @heyyy-hey-babyyy @idksupernatural @vicmc624 @all-will-be-well-love @busy-bee-angel-misska @starsandmidnightblue @lilulo-12 @beanie-beebo @xoxoaudreymarie @greenarrowhead @mrsjenniferwinchester

#dean winchester one shot #dean winchester x reader #dean winchester #dean winchester angst #spn x reader #SPN

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trbl-will-find-me · 6 years

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Every Exit, An Entrance (30/?)

She commands, and commands, and commands and then she sleeps, but even then, the cycle repeats. The Avenger or the Anthill, the Fog pods or the Chosen, the Council or ADVENT: binary pairs, variations on a theme she can’t escape.

It’s the brief adjustment period that still startles her, a disquieting confusion about where and when she is, memories of a life unlived still fresh in her mind.

It’s better when John is there, when she can ground herself in the steady rise and fall of his chest, the feeling of his fingers on her skin, the smell of his soap in her nose. It is gentler, then.

The mornings alone are the worst. No matter where she wakes, there is a profound feeling that it is wrong, even as her surroundings buoy her towards a sense of place, visual landmarks steeped in familiarity.

The ship or the subterrain, she takes comfort, at least, in the small simple fact that the face that meets her gaze in the mirror is always the same. Small mercies.

It’s not the disorientation so much that bothers her –not anymore– but the lingering notion that something is off. She considers herself to be well-grounded in reality; the daily reminder that she may not be, that stress, or the tank, or something has left that sense forever impaired is what truly bothers her about the process. Most days, it fades without fanfare, like coming to from a dream.

Most, but not all.

Of the possibilities she had not properly accounted for, her soldiers reading her work ranks near the top,

“So, this is why they picked you,” Molchetti gestures towards her screen. “I always wondered.”

“I can’t believe you guys are actually reading my papers.”

“Why wouldn’t we?’

“Because you lived them?”

“We did not live your theories on agricultural security in bioterror events.”

She wrinkles her nose. “Oh god, that’s an early one. Why would you read that?”

“Everyone else is.”

It is, unfortunately, a true statement. Her life before XCOM has become a topic of scrutiny for the press, barring any concrete details on her existence since March 1, 2015. She is torn between a vague sort of pride in her work receiving so much attention, and a strong desire to direct that attention towards almost anything else. She feels as if she’s been subjected to a second defense, one at which she is unable to speak, and must only watch as her work is judged by those not truly qualified to evaluate it.

“I know this is what we wanted,” she admits to John over dinner. “But it’s more than a little uncomfortable.”

“It’s been generally good press.”

“Generally?”

“You weren’t really expecting friends at Fox News, were you?”

She laughs. “Not with my publication history.”

“Your publication history, your conference presentations, your commentary. None of it.”

“Tell me someone called me a coastal elite.”

“You’re not getting that kind of attention from them. Who knows, though? Maybe they’ll dig something else up.”

The whole mission has spiraled out of control. An abandoned ADVENT facility in the middle of the tropics under the control of a sentient AI initially designed by Raymond Shen would be bad enough, but the addition of Lily’s presence on the field adds another level of unneeded difficulty. A seemingly endless supply of mechs, however rusted, and a forced reliance upon single passenger freight lifts hardly help the situation.

But, of all things, the AI seems to know them, and it seems to be doing its damnedest to find a way under Central’s skin.

“Are you still there, Bradford? I was beginning to wonder if you’d finally drowned yourself in the liquor.”

She watches his hands tighten into fists.

“Menace,” she instructs. “Keep pushing.”

The team has done well, all things considered. They have taken a few wounds, mostly minor, and they’ve kept Lily safe. They just need to find an escape route and, with any luck, disable this Julian character for good.

“Getting tired yet, Central? You’re an old man with one foot in the grave. I wonder why these people put up with you.”

Sally freezes for a moment, her hands hovering over her console.

“Fuck off, you glorified toaster!” Kelly yells.

“Look at them, so willing to defend you,” Julian purrs. “Do they know the blood on your hands? I’ve seen the world you’ve built, and frankly, it’s below even my expectations.”

She watches him reach for his flask, then think better of it, hands coming to grip the Hologlobe’s rails.

Menace advances, making their way towards a chamber at the far end of the room.

“And here I thought you would have run after her, Central. Or are some lives just more valuable than others? You’ve always played fast and loose, haven’t you?”

“Ignore him,” she orders, though she’s not sure if the edict is meant for those onboard the Avenger or off.

“It really would have been better to have just turned yourself in. Think of the lives you would have spared in the two decades it took you to find your precious Commander. And for what? You have to know you can’t win this.”

The ground team makes their way up a flight of stairs towards the smaller chamber.

“Oh, yes, ADVENT may fall. But have you considered that there is worse to come? Or hasn’t she told you?”

Her heart stutters in her chest. She has no idea what Julian is on about, but the last thing she needs is for Bradford to believe she’s keeping secrets. They have both worked so hard to mend things. She can’t have them shattered again.

“I really must thank Father,” Julian drawls. “It seems he really was the only competent one at XCOM.”

“Will somebody shut him up?” Central growls.

On screen, Lily makes her way towards an enormous robotic chassis. It springs to life at her touch, diverting Julian’s attention.

She uses the brief respite to take stock of the bridge crew. They are universally uncomfortable, uncertain of how to respond to Julian’s taunts. While she has no idea what the mad AI could be on about in terms of something worse still to come, even she’s forced to concede its comments to Central have all carried a grain of truth; it’s what allows them to cut so deeply, after all.

Sally watched her guardian with a kind of deep concern on her face, as if she were waiting for something to break. His avoidance of his flask does not seem to reassure.

Her attention snaps back to the screen at the sound of Raymond Shen’s voice, thread and tired. Something in her chest clenches and she’s seized by her own upswell of grief.

But it will have to wait until later as the outer chamber around them floods with a deadly gas.

In general, she tries to avoid being overly punitive. The men and women under her command work long hours under intense pressure and without sufficient outlet. She’s watched enough MASH to know what those circumstances breed.

Really, she’s been spared any serious antics. Yes, there had been a brief issue with trophy keeping, and yes, there had been more than a few off-color jokes, but by and large, they have all behaved as professionals.

They still do.

She would just prefer they find other reading material than her publication history.

John sits across from her after dinner, the door to her office securely locked.

“Saudi Arabia.” He says.

She squirms in her chair. “How much?

“Almost a quarter of our operating budget.”

Her eyes goes wide. “And what’s the price tag on that?”

“They want a Firestorm base.”

“It’s our people who operate them.”

“They seem to understand that.”

She rests her elbows on her desk, and buries her head in her hands.

“Lizzie,” he says. “You can’t turn them down. Not if we want this to work.”

“I know, but---”

“No but. They have money and influence. We need both.”

“Their human rights record---”

“China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, and the US: we’re not free from moral failings on that front as it is.”

He’s right, of course. She can admit that much.

The offer is good – better than good, even – and a Firestorm base in that part of the world would only help them should the worst come to pass. Better coverage would mean a better air game; a better air game might spare cities.

She really can’t find a downside, and her own moral qualms seem small by comparison.

“There’s something else,” he says.

“Good or bad?”

“It puts us over the operating budget we’d need --- over what we had at the peak of hostilities. And they’d likely bring another bloc of support along with them.”

“We’d be free to create a separate charter and decloak.”

He nods. “We’ll keep leaking files, get the documents drawn up, and drop cover.”

“And either succeed brilliantly, or find ourselves arrested.”

“Not the worst stakes we’ve ever lived with.”

“And there’s really no backing down now.”

“Not if you want to keep that research contained.”

She presses her lips together for a moment. “How do we get documents? We don’t have any lawyers in-house.”

“We have ways.”

The SPARK had been a surprise, yes, but it had been a pleasant one. The prototype Sectopod, however, had been an entirely different matter.

Even so, they are still here. Yes, the SPARK needs repairs and, yes, Moon will be in the infirmary a few days longer, but their gains far outpace their losses.

It doesn’t hurt that ADVENT remains seemingly none the wiser to their whereabouts.

In the three days since Menace team’s return from the tower, she has seen little of her Central Officer, but their scant interactions have been free of any tension. She suspects that something is amiss, but she refuses to push the matter.

“Commander?” Sally’s voice cuts over the comm. “I think you should see this.”

She can’t be certain, but she’d swear there’s a note of panic.

“Contact? Transmission from one of the Havens?”

“It’s Central, ma’am.”

She feels her skin prickle. “Where are you?”

“Aft-storage, sub-level C.”

“I’ll be right there.”

The sight that greets her is by far the worst surprise she has received as of late. Bradford, curled on the ground, Sally’s fingers hooked over his wrist.

“It’s withdrawal,” she says. “He must have fucked up the taper.”

“How do you know?” She says, kneeling down next to her.

She shakes her head. “It was like this the first time. It’s like this every time. He gets impatient and it all goes to hell. Last time almost killed him. And we had help then.”

“You have help now.”

“Tygan?”

“I know it’s not the best, but the man’s got a degree in pharmacology. He can calculate a dosage, if nothing else.”

Sally wrings her hands. “I don’t think I can do this again.”

The Commander shakes her head. “You’re not going to. Go get Tygan. We’ll handle it.”

The girl makes no effort to move.

“Go,” she says, voice gentle. “I’ll stay with him.”

She nods after a moment and sets off, returning shortly with the Chief Scientist in tow. Between them, they haul Bradford to his feet. They send Sally on ahead, scouting to make sure the halls are clear. The bridge is mostly empty, save for a skeleton crew on monitoring duty, and they’re able to maneuver him into her quarters without attracting much attention.

She starts an IV line, now grateful that her last medic re-certification had been only three months prior to the invasion. Tygan leaves, then returns with something in a syringe.

“Lorazepam.”

“You think he’s gonna seize?”

“Sally had indicated there was a history.”

She draws in a breath and lets it out. “Well. This could get interesting.”

“In my time with XCOM, Commander, I’ve come to accept that as the norm.”

She knows she shouldn’t find that quite as funny as she does.

It’s a quiet few hours. Central spends the bulk of it asleep or otherwise unconscious. She spends the bulk of it perched on the edge of the bed, reaching out every now and then to brush sweat-soaked hair off of his forehead.

“Lizzie? You really here?” He groans when he finally wakes.

I don’t know, she wants to tell him. I don’t know if this is real, or a dream, or some other simulation. I go to sleep here, and I wake up somewhere else. I go to sleep there, and I wake up here. This feels real, sure, but it also feels wrong. Like I’m not supposed to be here. Like I ended up here by mistake. I don’t know. I wish I did. All I know is that you are here and I am here and, for now, that will have to be enough.

“Yeah,” she says. “Yeah, sweetheart. I’m here. You came for me. I’m with you.”

“Don’t know if I believe you.”

“Think that’s the fever talking.”

“You only ever called me that once. And it wasn’t real.”

“What?”

“You know.”

Sweetheart, her brain helpfully supplies. You haven’t called anyone that since. Well.

“It was real,” she says, softly.

“It was a fairytale. You said it yourself. Real you would know that.”

“We both know what happened.”

He reaches out with his free hand, tracing a finger gently down her cheek. “Always meant to tell you,” he says. “Thought I’d have more time.”

“You can tell me after you get some sleep.

“You’ll be gone.”

“Man, are you in for a surprise.”

“Don’t go.”

“I’m not going anywhere. I’m here. I’m with you.”

“You knew, right?”

The question catches her off guard. “Yeah. I knew.”

#every exit an entrance

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valuentumbrian · 4 years

Text

Boeing’s Financials Are Absolutely Frightening

By Brian Nelson, CFA

On November 18, 2020, Boeing (BA) announced that the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) withdrew its order that had grounded its 737-8s and 737-9s (737 MAX) that had been involved in two terrible accidents during the past few years, a Lion Air flight that killed 189 people and an Ethiopian Airlines jet crash that claimed the lives of 157 more. We’ll never forget these tragedies and the impact on the families and the aviation industry, more generally.

In January 2017, we had added Boeing to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, but we had removed it March 16, 2018, prior to the unfortunate and high-profile accidents that occurred several months after. During the short time it was in the newsletter portfolio, the stock roughly doubled, producing a return 5 times that of the S&P 500’s performance. Here was the rationale for the removal at the time (bear in mind that this was before the terrible tragedies that occurred months later):

The primary reasons for the removal rest in a combination of Boeing’s value and technical/momentum considerations. Shares have soared to the high end of our fair value range, and now technically, they have started to roll over as investors, fair or not, worry about retaliation with respect to coming tariffs. We’re huge fans of Boeing on a fundamental basis, but a great company a great stock doesn’t always make.

Fast forward to January 23, 2020--a month or so before the COVID-19 market collapse--when Boeing’s shares were trading at ~$320 per share, I penned a piece in frustration: “Why *NOW* Do You Care About Boeing’s Stock?” I said in that January 23, 2020 note in no uncertain terms: “In no, way shape or form should you *now* be interested in Boeing’s stock.” There was some more harsh writing in the note, and I wish I could have said it nicer – but at times, I just want our members to get a feel for exactly what we think about a stock. There’s always room for improvement in my tone.

But please let me put it nicely now: I really didn’t like Boeing’s shares at $320 in January 2020, especially since we had removed them from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio for a huge win just a number of months prior. Now with the benefit of hindsight, I hope you can forgive me for that emphatic and colorful note (in analyst speak, we call that type of writing “pounding the table”). Boeing’s shares had fallen from ~$320 that day in January 2020, to a 52-week low of $89 per share in mid-March.

But that was then, and this is now. Shares of Boeing have finally bounced back, converging to our fair value estimate of $200 that we established near the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown. The company’s shares had rallied back to those levels in June of this year, and now they have settled again at our fair value estimate after technically basing for a number of months. We’re viewing this share price move, in particular, positively, but Boeing still has a long way to go to meet the fundamental/financial criteria we’re looking for to be reconsidered in any newsletter portfolio.

The reality is that Boeing’s financials are still pretty scary. During the first nine months of 2020, the company burned through an incredible $15.4 billion in free cash flow, even as it cut capital spending by a few hundred million. As of the end of the third quarter of 2020, its total consolidated debt now stands at $61 billion, with total cash and marketable securities of $27.1 billion. This compares to total consolidated debt of $24.7 billion and total cash and marketable securities of $10.9 billion, as of the end of the third quarter of 2019.

The grounding of the 737 MAX and the outbreak of COVID-19 have combined to be an absolute wrecking ball to Boeing’s financials, and it may take a very, very long time before things start looking better on the books. S&P, Moody’s and Fitch still give the company investment-grade credit ratings (BBB-/Baa2/BBB-), but we’re not sure the aerospace giant deserves them. Here’s what Fitch noted October 2020: “…many of the company's quantitative rating factors will be inconsistent with the 'BBB' category for three years (2019-2021) and into 2022.” It’s probably fair to say that Boeing’s corporate debt should be rated junk, but that would cause some severe reverberations in the credit markets, in our view.

It's worth sharing Fitch's views on expectations for airline traffic in coming years:

Fitch's base case for airline passenger traffic (domestic and international) assumes revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) will not recover to 2019 levels before FYE23 and at FYE21 will still be 30% below 2019 levels. Underlying this forecast is the assumption that an effective vaccine/treatment is available, but not at scale, through 2021, and there will be a continued collapse in travel until there is widespread vaccine/treatment availability.

Our base case assumes domestic traffic recovers to 2019 levels around the middle of 2023, while international traffic returns to 2019 levels after 2023, perhaps the summer of 2024. Available information so far supports this assumption of domestic recovering first, including the data coming out of the important Chinese domestic market. We expect capacity will recover before RPKs, and we believe load factors will remain lower than the record levels seen in 2019 (source).

Here is what the International Air Transport Association (IATA) had to say about the 5-year outlook for air passenger demand (July 2020):

…we have revised down our passenger forecast over the next five-year period. In our new forecasts, we expect RPKs to decline by a little more than 60% in 2020 compared to 2019, with a return to pre -COVID levels not occurring before 2024. Many uncertainties remain around the outlook and in this update we have investigated various possible future scenarios. The main point is that the risks around our latest forecast remain clearly tilted to the downside...The upside could see travel demand return to 2019 levels in 2023, while the downside could be much more severe (source).

The airlines are certainly not over the hump, by any stretch, and we think the credit rating agencies are probably giving Boeing the benefit of the doubt that it will start raking in material free cash flow in 2022 due to pent-up demand and accelerated deliveries (an optimistic, but still an assumption with reasonable basis). However, as we’ve learned time and time again, supply chain issues can pose problems, and lower airline traffic will almost certainly impact its services operations.

In the longer run, new aircraft are extremely expensive to build and come with substantial “unknown” risks (e.g. think 787 delays, the recent 737 MAX incidents), and key rival Airbus (EADSY) is not backing down either, with competition only intensifying as the duo vie for orders during these troubled times (Boeing hasn’t had a new aircraft order since August). It's only a matter of time before China and Russia will be key players in the aircraft-making industry, too. Boeing has no margin of error left; should it be hit with another negative exogenous event in the near term, things could get really, really ugly for shares.

When it comes to our favorite ideas, we continue to prefer net-cash-rich, free cash flow generating powerhouses with strong competitive advantages that facilitate recurring revenue business models that can take advantage of secular tailwinds (see the concentrated nature of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio). With Boeing’s dividend suspended, too, there’s simply no place in any of our newsletter portfolios for this troubled airframe maker, despite a hugely attractive backlog of unfulfilled deliveries ($393 billion, ~4,300 commercial airplanes). The company falls within what we'd describe as the “too hard bucket,” in our view. One day--many years from now--the aerospace giant’s financials may return to some “normalcy,” but until then, Boeing is likely dead money with a severely-bloated balance sheet walking on thin ice.

---

Related aerospace: ITA, PPA, XAR, SPR, TGI, HXL, HWM, HEI, TDG, RX, DCO, BAESY, EADSF, SAFRY, CAE, BDRAF, BDRBF, ITT, ATRO, CSTM, DCO, MOG.A, WWD, KAMN, HON, TXT, AVAV, LHX, AIR, ERJ, RYCEF, RYCEY

Related airlines: JETS, ALK, LUV, AAL, ACDVF, DAL, UAL, HA, SAVE, GOL, CPA, RYAAY, AZUL, ICAGY, EJTTF, DLAKF, DLAKY, AFRAF, DRTGF, WZZAF, AERZY, FNNNF, NWARF, AIBEF, QUBSF, ESYJY, LTM, SKYW, MESA, ANZFF, CEA, ZNH, AIRYY, ALGT, KLMR, JAPSY

Related lessors: AL, AER, GE

Related travel stocks: TCOM, TRVG, BKNG, EXPE, TRIP, TZOO, CTRP, DESP

Related air freight: UPS, FDX

Related country ETFs: FXI, MCHI, RSX

Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free.

Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, DIA, VOT, and QQQ. Some of the other securities written about in this article may be included in Valuentum's simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact Valuentum for more information about its editorial policies.

-------------------------------------------------

The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Valuentum Exclusive publication, and any reports and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor, and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. The sources of the data used on this website and reports are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum, its employees, independent contractors and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the securities mentioned on this website. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio are not real money portfolios. Performance, including that in the Valuentum Exclusive publication, is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Actual results may differ from simulated information, results, or performance being presented. For more information about Valuentum and the products and services it offers, please contact us at [email protected].

#boeing #$ba #airlines #aerospace

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cksmart-world · 5 years

Text

The Completely Unnecessary News Analysis

By Christopher Smart

December 26, 2019

BLESS THE INLAND PORT PROTESTERS

We live in a country where you won't get arrested for protesting. Well, not exactly. Protests are as American as tea bags and when elected officials screw up or sell out, it's our right, our duty even, to protest. And that brings us to the proposed Inland Port in Salt Lake City — where trucks and trains from all over would bring freight to a sea of warehouses and then shipped elsewhere by more trucks and trains. Last summer, a group of folks who didn't cotton to the idea of a lot more traffic and a lot more air pollution, among other things, including a heavy-handed state government, decided to make their displeasure known. A protest at City Hall ended up at the Salt Lake Chamber across the street, where the Inland Port Authority was to meet. Cops came and all hell broke loose. In the end, 10 protesters were charged with felonies and four with misdemeanors. Last week, Salt Lake City police, after a review, said their officers did nothing wrong — of course not. And that's the price of protesting, particularly on private property. The D.A. is going to make an example of the “Inland Port 10,” who are now staring down the barrel of the criminal justice system. And they're going to need a lot more than your prayers. As for you would-be protesters out there — watch your six, freedom isn't free.

TILTING AT REALITY

OK, this is serious. Our commander in chief has blown the whistle on the proliferation of windmills. They are a clear and present danger. (We couldn't possibly make this up.) Windmills are unreliable, cause cancer and kill birds. "I never understood wind," Trump said. "You know, I know windmills very much. I've studied it better than anybody I know. It's very expensive. They're made in China and Germany mostly..." he said in a recent speech. Fortunately, the president has made time in his busy schedule to highlight these urgent matters, like those water-saving toilets that “you have to flush 10 or 15 times.” And dishwashers — what happened to dishwashers? “Women tell me,” Trump said, that their water-saving dishwashers are terrible. But those issues pale in comparison to windmills. "I told the story about the woman,” Trump told his rapt audience, “she wants to watch television and she says to her husband, 'Is the wind blowing? I'd love to watch a show tonight, darling. The wind hasn't blown for three days. I can't watch television, darling. Darling, please, tell the wind to blow.'" It's all true, of course, but what about those damn blenders?

DREAMING OF A GREEN SKI SEASON

Soon, you won't have to drive up the canyons to go skiing. Gondolas could whisk you from Starbucks to Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude, Park City or Deer Valley, according to a story in The Salt Lake Tribune. No more traffic jams, no more parking headaches. The proposal is the long awaited solution to the inconvenience of crawling up the canyon in your car needing to go potty. All those nice folks who make money from skiing want to get more people up the canyons in order to make more money and the automobile is getting in the way. Just think, we could get 10 times the amount of skiers and boarders on the slopes. CA-CHING. Think of the profits. Think of the stats SKI UTAH can boast: 27 bazillion skier-days in a single season. Of course, there will be those grouchy old people who say putting more and more people on the mountain diminishes the sport and all the good stuff that goes with it. But those poor backward folks are only thinking of the experience. That's so selfish. They should be considering profit margins, return on investment and all those greenbacks. Just ask the Utah Travel Council, which is supported by your tax dollars, after all. You won't get any thank yous, of course, but you can take heart knowing that you helped make skiing so much more crowded and profitable. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what they call success.

EVANGELICALS IN A HOLY TWIT

Last week, Mark Galli, the outgoing editor of the magazine “Christianity Today,” editorialized that Donald Trump should be removed from office because he is “a near perfect example of a human being who is morally lost and confused” and has “no loyalty to the Creator of the Ten Commandments.” Jesus, Mary and Joseph. It sent shock waves through the evangelical community. Nonetheless, many of them continue to see Trump as Heaven sent. At the same time, others, including Catholics, Protestants, Jews, Muslims, heathens and pagans have wondered why, after all Trump's lying, bamboozling and extracurricular fornicating could they possibly hold that view, while also praising Jesus of Nazareth as the Savior. A new NPR-PBS poll found 75 percent of white evangelical Christians approved of Trump, compared with 42 percent of adults overall. Some see Trump evangelicals as hypocrites. But those Trumpers seem unfazed on account of The Donald bestowed upon them two anti-abortion Supreme Court justices and promised them religious freedom (the ability to legally discriminate against gay and trans people). What else really matters. Thank you, Lord.

Post Script

Well, that just about does it for another Christmas Holiday here at Smart Bomb, where the staff continues to puzzle over the Three Kings of the Orient who brought gifts to the Baby Jesus in the manger — and why He took up carpentry before starting Christianity. But maybe it's best not to over-think these things. Speaking of spirituality, Baba Ram Das (real name Richard Alpert) has died at age 88. He and Timothy Leary helped popularize LSD in the 1960s as an avenue to greater consciousness. Ram Das was a guiding light for Wilson and the band, too. Among other things, he wrote a best seller in 1971 called “Be Here Now.” Ram Das then traveled to India to find true enlightenment without drugs and returned to this country some years later as a New Age guru. No Santa for him, but he died contented — it's that inner peace thing. Despite Trump's massive tax cuts it looks like most Santas didn't have a lot of extra cash this season. Billionaire Santas and corporate Santas do have a lot more, but don't believe in the spirit of giving so much. (The top 91 corporations in this country paid no federal tax at all.) Once again Trickle Down Economics is proven to be nothing more than a fable that won't go away, kinda like the Three Kings.

All right Wilson, since the band is practically three sheets to the wind anyway, why not unfurl the spinnaker and sail us out into the New Year: We were born before the wind / Also younger than the sun / Ere the bonnie boat was won / As we sailed into the mystic / Hark, now hear the sailors cry / Smell the sea and feel the sky / Let your soul and spirit fly into the mystic...

0 notes

sunnyworldwidelogistics · 25 days

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Shipping to United Arab Emirates: How I Became Close Friends with My Client Mansour

A few years ago, I was contacted by a customer from United Arab Emirates named Mansour. He found me online and later added me on Trade Manager. Honestly, I wasn't sure if he was serious at first. But as we continued talking, I learned that Mansour was a supplier of bed linens to local hotels. He knew that products from China were affordable but had never done any importing before. He was worried about how to find a reliable logistics company that could handle everything from import procedures to customs and logistics.

Mansour found out about Sunny Worldwide Logistics online. He saw that we’ve been in business for 26 years, with nearly 100 employees and our own 1,800-square-meter Grade A office space, so he felt we were a trustworthy logistics company and reached out to me.

Mansour asked me to help him purchase goods on Alibaba (a Chinese online shopping platform) and then arrange air shipping to United Arab Emirates. Since we’re an experienced international freight forwarder, we didn’t just provide logistics services but also helped with other tasks. Whether it was contacting suppliers or handling various other details, we took care of it all without charging extra, just our logistics service fee. This allowed Mansour to focus on his core business.

I started by finding suppliers on Alibaba International and arranged the first shipment from Qingdao. Mansour was very satisfied with our service, and this being his first time importing from China, everything went smoothly. He realized that all he needed was to find suppliers in China, and we’d handle the rest. As he gained confidence, he began asking me to help him buy bed linens from Taobao (another Chinese online shopping platform), with delivery to our office. I would then pack and prepare the export documents before shipping them to United Arab Emirates.

Since Mansour couldn’t communicate directly with the Taobao sellers due to the language barrier, I took on the role of buyer and translator. I handled all the details like material, size, stock, and delivery time. When the goods arrived, I checked them, repacked them, and prepared for export. Sometimes, it took almost a whole day just to pack everything—sometimes over 1,000 kg of goods! It was hard work, but Mansour's business was thriving.

Mansour eventually expanded his product range, including LED lights, stickers, and store fixtures. He planned to open a store in United Arab Emirates. He quickly turned his purchases into beautifully packaged products with his logo, selling them as souvenirs to tourists. The business did well, and all the products were sourced from Taobao and shipped by us.

Mansour was so impressed that he made a trip to China to meet me. I picked him up at the Luohu border, arranged a hotel near our office, and gave him a tour. He was amazed to see that we owned an entire floor of an 1,800-square-meter office building with nearly 100 employees, all in uniform and under standardized management. He knew we were a large logistics company, but he didn’t expect us to be this big.

During his visit, Mansour provided the logos and sizes for the store fixtures he needed. I sent those details to the Taobao sellers and also took him around Shenzhen to buy various items from the craft markets. After nearly a week, everything was settled, and we shipped a full container by sea to United Arab Emirates. Mansour successfully opened his first store and was thrilled, even sending me photos of the grand opening. It was like seeing something you’ve worked hard on come to life.

Over time, Mansour maintained a steady shipment flow, sending about 400-500 bed linen sets each month. However, as competition grew, his business started to decline, and he eventually had to sell the store. After a break, Mansour decided to open a flower shop. With his previous experience, he was much more thorough in planning this time.

Mansour found flower suppliers in Yunnan, China, as well as in Africa and Amsterdam. United Arab Emirates is a popular destination for weddings, so he saw an opportunity to cater to this market. Once again, he started a new venture, registering a brand for his floral designs and packaging, and purchasing all the necessary store materials. Mansour returned to China, and I helped him with all the purchases, packing, and shipping to United Arab Emirates. The flower shop opened successfully, combining a physical store with an online presence, and business took off.

Mansour and I have become close friends over the years, trusting each other completely. Every time he opens a new store, I’m there to help with all the details, far beyond just doing business. Mansour has visited our office several times and is always grateful for our support, especially during his toughest times.

Mansour has invited me to visit United Arab Emirates many times, promising to take care of everything for me. I’ve always been busy with work, but now that I’m married, Mansour has invited me to spend my honeymoon there. One day, I’m sure I’ll make the trip.

Thanks to our successful partnership with Mansour, we’ve expanded our air and sea routes to United Arab Emirates. More and more customers from there are reaching out to work with us. I’m confident that one day, Sunny Worldwide Logistics will become a well-known name in United Arab Emirates, with every shop there choosing us to ship their goods from China—reliable and trusted by all.

#Shipping to United Arab Emirates

0 notes

dazeaghaji-blog · 5 years

Photo

Caring about air pollution isn’t as cool as going vegan or quitting plastic – but a new gen of young disruptors are attempting to change that

A FUTURE WORLD POLITICS 16.05.2019 Text Lydia Morrish

Read the original piece in Dazed Magazine

When 20-year-old Daze Aghaji moved back to London after six years at boarding school in Skegness, Lincolnshire, she was annoyed that her asthma came back. “When I was younger I used to have asthma, and I didn’t have it when I was in Lincolnshire,” she says, passion trembling in her voice over the phone. Skin problems, like eczema, acne, and itchy eyes, also returned, along with her asthma, in London. “That was when I knew something needed to be done.”

Now a student at Goldsmiths University in south east London, Daze believes her health issues are a result of the British capital’s illegal levels of air pollution, which it’s been grappling with since 2010. “It hit me, the air not being as good,” she says from her shared house on a buzzing New Cross street.

Air pollution – the presence of harmful particles in the air we breathe – is a national crisis in the UK. An estimated 36,000 people die prematurely in Britain every year because of it, and it’s particularly bad in London, which has overtaken the EU’s annual legal limit of nitrogen dioxide (from road traffic and factories burning fossil fuels) within one month every year since 2007. The air meltdown is global, with nearly one in every ten deaths in 2017 a result of pollution, according to a major new study on global air published in April.

But you wouldn’t necessarily know all this. In comparison to more mainstream environmental issues, like quitting plastic straws and bottles, or going vegan, caring about air quality is still catching up. According to some estimates, 70 per cent of London teenagers aren’t aware of how bad the capital’s air is. This could be because much of the buzz surrounding air pollution is all dreary posters, stuffy documentaries, and lifeless infographics from out-of-touch charities failing to capture the attention of new voices and the next generation. Because of this, air pollution isn’t a household anxiety. Instead, it’s more routinely thought of as a distant issue that’s dull and non-urgent.

But this misrepresents the threat of polluted air. Its effects are long-term, deadly, and need to be more widely known, says Dr Maria Neira, the director of the World Health Organisation’s public health department and one of the world’s top 100 climate policy influencers. “If you don’t have safe water, food and clean air… how can we survive?” she asks over the phone from her office in Geneva, Switzerland.

“We should, from the beginning, tell people that the price of climate change is paid by our lungs and hospitals,” says Neira of the link between global warming and air pollution, both resulting mainly from the use of fossil fuels. “This is something that until now has not been considered.”

This is why Daze is one of thousands of young people trying to “rebrand” air pollution’s public image from something dull and grey into something that everyone shouts about. With subversive ad campaigns, preconception-busting protests, and bunking off school, they hope to fix what they see as a lack of public concern and government action for air quality. Despite the Conservative government launching a new clean air strategy, which it described as “world-leading”, campaigners argue it falls short of providing a proper game plan to cut emissions. “If kids have the sense to know something is dramatically wrong, I don’t get what the government is doing,” says Daze. “We have less than (ten years) to make this dramatic change.”

Daze is part of XR Youth, the youth wing of the headline-grabbing radical activist movement Extinction Rebellion, which attempts to force government action to reduce carbon emissions by 2025 with tactics like shutting down central London and stripping in the House of Commons. Daze stages strikes, plants trees, and distributes leaflets to rework air pollution’s public image and make the government take more radical action. “We’re going to cause havoc until they listen to us.”

The collective is part of an international movement of students skipping school to protest political inaction to climate change. Inspired by Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, the Youth Climate Strike sees kids around the world bunk off school on selected Fridays to protest global warming. “You’ve got dancing, people moshing (and) a party, festival vibe,” says Daze, recalling how she sat down eating her lunch in the middle of Westminster Bridge, refusing to stand up when approached by police, at the February 15 strike. “If this isn’t going to make them take it seriously, what will?”

A group that knows a lot spicing up the public perception of environmental issues is Clean Air Now, an eco-gang of 20-something anti-pollution warriors founded in 2016. Its founders, filmmaker Vasilisa Forbes and graphic artist Claire Matthews, who met the rest of their clan on social networks, aim to tip the view of air pollution on its head through an underground, DIY approach, using creative design and artistic activism to bring air pollution to a wider, younger audience.

Their subversive campaigns include anarchic Kidulthood-inspired anti-pollution billboards warning young people of traffic fumes, an advert campaign showing the effects of pollution on skin using kitsch imagery, a collaboration with British grime artists including JME for a campaign promoting electric vehicles, and artsy, witchcraft-esque posters personifying Mother Nature.

“Traditional environmental activist organisations can be prone to presenting themselves in a visually outdated and unreliable way, which does little to inspire new engagement,” says 26-year-old Claire, referencing the use of idyllic imagery and soft and forgetful messaging in pollution campaigns from NGOs. “(They) looked more like antihistamine adverts than anything campaign or civic engagement-related.”

The duo’s most recent campaign, CAN Organic, completely overthrows traditional narratives around air pollution. The stunning film, featuring south London youth collective RAWMAR and dance students from a Leyton sixth-form – all of whom have respiratory problems – forces viewers to face the human impact on major cities’ air quality through ethereal dancing and hazy stills.

“Our whole aim was to turn the idea of being environmentally conscious (into) something that everybody can be a part of,” says 27-year-old Vasilisa. “You can still be cool and environmentally friendly. It’s not just a frumpy middle class concept.”

Aside from historically lax air pollution ads, the lack of public awareness around air pollution so far could be down to its inherently foggy nature. “You can see climate change is causing flooding, you can see plastics, but with air pollution, you can’t really see it,” says Daze. This makes engaging with the issue of air pollution more difficult, with individuals unable to know how to make a change themselves. “It’s everywhere,” she adds.

“You can still be cool and environmentally friendly. It’s not just a frumpy middle class concept” – Vasilisa Forbes

We might not see air pollution, but we feel it. “When you breathe polluted, toxic air, you feel it immediately,” says Neira. A growing stack of research points to air pollution’s negative impacts on our general health: in the UK, there are record levels of deaths from asthma and air pollution is increasingly being linked to heart disease, diabetes, and dementia. “You might not know the name of the diseases it’s causing, but you see the linkage very clearly and quickly.”

Much like wealth, pollution isn’t spread equally, with eastern countries like Bangladesh and China bearing the biggest air pollution burden. Even in western countries there’s a racial gap, with pollutants disproportionately inhaled by black and Hispanic Americans despite them being disproportionately caused by white Americans' consumption of goods and services.

It’s also worse for young people: 90 per cent of the world's children breathe toxic air, while growing up in polluted areas increases the chance of teens developing depression, according to one recent study. “The younger you are, the bigger the risk,” says Neira. It’s no wonder young people have to take matters into their own hands.

The narrative around air pollution is already changing. “We have been trying to ‘rebrand’ the climate agenda by saying that this is a question of asthma, this is a question of our lungs, our brains, and our hearts suffering,” says Neira. “When you (ask) people living in a polluted city what is air pollution, they can immediately tell you that their eyes are suffering, they cannot breathe, they can feel it. This is a language that everybody now understands.”

Lawmakers are finally responding to activists’ efforts. Sadiq Khan has launched the Breathe London network, building a map of air quality across the capital using sensors, as well as a new fee to drive in the city centre in an attempt to cut congestion and reduce traffic emissions. Meanwhile, air pollution tech is getting better, with tools like China-based Blue Map and British app London Air bringing the air conversation to people’s smartphones. These changes aren’t anywhere near enough, however. The UK doesn’t look likely to meet EU air pollution limits or WHO guidelines any time soon.

Ultimately, it will be young people, the policy-makers of tomorrow, who change the game. “Young people... I’m sure will be able to move mountains,” says WHO’s Neira. “They recycle, are conscious of plastic bags, cautious with way they use water, (and) use public transport instead of cars. This is the way we will transform our society.”

For Daze, the freight lorries driving through New Cross are a daily reminder of her health problems. “Air pollution is something you can’t escape,” she says.

From the image-conscious young activists’ perspectives, air pollution will be tackled properly once it has been solidified in the public psyche, and seen as an issue people can get involved in, like cutting down on meat and recycling. Despite the hurdles, they won’t be giving up – their mission to rebrand air quality has only just begun. “People have power,” says Daze. “If everyone cares about it, the government will have to listen.”

Read the original piece in Dazed Magazine

#press

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myallywynn · 4 years

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Governments, Regulations and Logistics Structure – Executive Insights with Pritam Banerjee

Executive Insights is a series by Shipping and Freight Resource that provides ongoing insights and thoughtful analysis..

This series features selected individuals from the industry and is aimed at enriching the knowledge of the readers with what is happening in the shipping, freight, maritime, logistics, and supply chain industry..

Executive Insights also gives you a chance to pick the brains of these industry veterans, leaders, and enablers..

In this edition of Executive Insights, we caught up with Pritam Banerjee, Logistics Specialist at Asian Development Bank (ADB) on the topic of Governments, regulations and logistics structure..

SFR : Can you give a brief background about yourself and your entry into the industry..??

PB : After my Ph.d, I joined World Bank in Washington DC, where most of my work was related to trade policy, especially what is called trade facilitation…focusing on customs and other regulatory reforms that are very relevant for logistics operations.

I was then recruited by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), a national industry association to head their Trade Policy division based out of New Delhi. It was during that time industry folks saw me engage with Government on issues related to their business, and I was recruited by Deutsche Post DHL Group.

SFR : There are a lot of questions from people in the industry about formal education.. How much has your Masters and PhD helped you in understanding the industry and its nuances..??

PB : I think that a background in economics helps you approach problems in a certain way. If you undergo a doctoral program, you add certain analytical skills in your tool box. That perhaps helps you see things in slightly different light.

So in a room full of experienced colleagues who have spent all their years in operational and commercial roles, you can bring in a different and sometimes valuable perspective. Having said that though, my most productive learning years were those spent in DPDHL Group.

And my best professors were guys with years of operational experience in warehousing, customs brokerage, line haul.

Formal education can give you a 20,000 feet view, but it is your industry experience that grounds you, makes you real as a professional.

SFR : Do Governments really have a practical understanding of the requirements of the logistics sector and what kind of support do they really provide to this sector because generally there is a lot more interest in the maritime sector..

PB : I think the essential challenge for governments is they are organized in silos. So within a department, there is a specific focus on maritime and ports, or regulating civil aviation, or developing highways, or managing borders etc.

On the other hand, logistics is essentially a network of services using different transport modes. So, governments depend on the logistics industry for practical feedback. The governments that have developed strong institutions for such a feedback loop do a better job than those who haven’t.

What has changed in the last decade or more is the focus of policy-makers on logistics, and on the supply chains, they serve.

Global indices such as the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) and other such measures of connectivity and supply-chain performance are taken very seriously.

Maritime sector gets a lion share of attention, even in these surveys and rankings because it is still responsible for moving the bulk of trade that governments are interested in.

However, with the rise of e-commerce (B2C), and greater degrees of customization of products requiring you to move smaller packet sizes of bespoke goods for individual customers in B2B, air-cargo is getting a lot of attention.

Multi-modal solutions, take the China-Europe rail product, which in turn is connected to Japan or Vietnam via maritime and road connections are all getting a lot of focus by policy-makers as viable alternatives providing important solutions to supply-chains for these economies.

SFR : What are some of the common pitfalls faced by companies who have not bothered to create a proper logistics structure or plan..??

PB : We can sum it up in two words “going bust”. In a globally competitive eco-system, supply chain management, and the logistics that support it is one of the key drivers of your competitiveness. It makes and breaks you as a business.

Even your brand equity depends on it. After-sales service depends on the logistics of spare parts and components, on reverse logistics for defective parts.

Only firms that enjoy near-monopoly or are State-Owned Enterprises that live off budgetary support can afford to be casual about having effective logistics management.

To bring greater nuance to this response, I think there are degrees to which firms get this logistics structure right. And even then, one has to keep evolving as the firm’s needs expand, or supply chains have to be rejigged to meet new customer expectations.

As firms grow larger, they look to the professionals-logistics service providers (LSPs) to come up with the right structure.

The entire 3PL business has grown exponentially for this reason. Economies of scale and technology has allowed LSPs to price their solutions more reasonably over time, allowing even middle to smaller size enterprises use their services.

This has been one of the less told stories of how globalization and global value chains were build in the last three decades.

SFR : Are there any regulations or policies in general that is currently causing more harm than good to the global supply chain industry..??

PB : The list is endless if fact in my opinion one can write a book to just list them all! But the short answer would be that such regulations fall under five broad categories.

Border measures: Related to the whole gamut of customs and other border agency-related issues. Despite the enormous progress, challenges remain.

Anti-competitive measures: These refer to preferences for national or flag carriers, right of first refusal (ROFR), FDI restrictions, state-aid or support etc. Especially relevant now with ‘bail-outs’ and preferences by governments due to COVID-19 crisis for both airlines and liner shipping, the full impact of such state aid to their firms will be felt in months to come.

Access limitations/restrictions critical infrastructure or operational restrictions: These are often critical to an efficient operating environment. Take for example a particular cargo airline receiving the juiciest slots at an airport, or restriction on being able to use your own ground handler of choice or denial of self ground-handling to an aggregator.

There are unique challenges arising under this category in terms of data privacy and security. Insistence on data localization, or use of scanners of a particular firm and specification mandated by the state, or demanding employee records and putting in place intrusive electronic surveillance in facilities.

Discretionary powers leading to unpredictable business environment: Over-riding regulatory powers to set prices, or suspend an operating license, or renegotiate terms of the contract for a private terminal in state-owned port are just some examples of complications that arise under this category of issues

Procedural and enforcement issues: These are the day-to-day that is the bread and butter of regulatory and compliance guys in logistics firms. Approvals, clearances, valuation and interpretation by customs and GST/VAT authorities, warehouse inspection compliance….I can go on and on.

SFR : Is there a direct correlation between profitable trade flows and structured supply chains..??

PB : Not always. Profitability can be driven by technology or resource monopolies or oligopolies that allow firms/countries to make profits, independent of having well-structured supply chains.

But such profits are not sustainable. Sustainable profits require having well-structured supply chains that minimize costs, while at the same time meet the expectations of your trade partners in terms of predictability of the supply chain and its ability to manage quality and security.

SFR : What role does public policy and regulations play in a country’s trade growth..??

Enormous amount. The interface of regulations and public policy is essentially a conversation on ease of doing business. We live in a world where capital, high-end skills and technology are extremely mobile.

So manufacturing and services activities cluster around regions/countries where it is easy to do business. When industry professionals engage in conversations around this topic, and governments actually listen, you end of creating the business-friendly eco-system that investors like.

Almost every investor today has a choice, even MSMEs. And I think despite COVID-19 crisis-induced protectionism, firms would continue to exercise that choice and locate where it makes economic sense, and it is relatively easy to do business because in those locations you would have a responsive government that takes this conversation on public policy with business seriously.

SFR : Do you think the international regulatory authorities like IMO, IATA, WHO etc. are doing a good job because while they are creating the regulations, they are still dependent on the various Governments to implement and police them..

This has always been the case. International Organizations (IOs) depend on member country governments to implement their regulations and protocols.

Since these regulations and protocols typically evolve out of a consensus among member countries, these are enforced quite rigorously on the ground by member country governments. Has the COVID-19 crisis seriously undermined this? In my opinion, not yet.

But yes, the enforcement ability in some parts of the world has been compromised as government machinery itself is impacted due to COVID-19 crisis. In the coming months, we might even see the credibility of some of these IOs being challenged (for e.g. the WHO), and member countries less inclined to take directions from them.

SFR : How do you see the tariff wars progressing – are we in for a rough ride or have things calmed down a bit on the back of the impact of COVID-19..??

I think this is the calm before the storm. And I am speaking not just in terms of tariffs, but in the overall context of trade wars. The COVID-19 crisis has hurt all economies, there is a lot of unemployment all around. Governments will try to hunker down and protect jobs.

This is bound to lead to protectionist measures. Tariffs are the least efficient measure in the tool-box, but the least complicated for governments to use.

But other Non-Tariff Barriers would also proliferate. Some of these measures will add huge operating costs and efforts for LSPs, especially those who also provide customs brokerage and customs clearance services.

Anti-dumping duties added compliance requirements for product standards and certifications, stringent requirements for the provenance of origin, all of these would add to the challenge.

There would be supply chain impacts in the medium term as well, as firms chose to re-locate production to adjust to the new trading regimes.

The post Governments, Regulations and Logistics Structure – Executive Insights with Pritam Banerjee appeared first on Shipping and Freight Resource.

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nicholerestrada · 6 years

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Economy could slow by 2020

Editor’s Note: This edition of Free Morning Money is published weekdays at 8 a.m. POLITICO Pro Financial Services subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 5:15 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro’s comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.

ECONOMY COULD SLOW BY 2020 — One final big economic number before the midterms but it could be once again impacted by hurricane distortion. Hurricane Michael hit during the survey week for the October jobs report, just like Florence did for the September number. Still the number is likely to be good. Consensus is for a gain of 195K, unemployment unchanged at 3.7 percent and wages up 0.2 percent. The trouble is these kind of jobs gains are not likely to be sustained as President Trump heads toward re-election in 2020.

Story Continued Below

Moody’s Mark Zandi emails: “Job growth is set to slow as businesses will soon not be able to find workers. The labor force is only growing about 100,000 per month. Given current economic growth, if sustained, which seems likely through this time next year given all the fiscal stimulus juicing things up, unemployment will fall into the low threes and job growth will slow to near 100,000 per month by early 2020.”

“While the economy is a tailwind behind the Republicans in next week’s midterm election, it is shaping up to be a serious headwind for them in 2020 Presidential election. The fiscal stimulus will have faded away by then, and the economy will be struggling with much higher interest rates.”

ANOTHER REASON THE MIDTERMS MATTER — People who are more optimistic than MM believe Trump and Democrats – should they take the House – will be able to make at least some deals, including possibly on an infrastructure spending bill. That could provide some added stimulus that could forestall a slowdown before the 2020 presidential campaign. If that doesn’t happen, Trump could be seeking re-election with a slowing job market, soaring deficits and higher interest rates.

This is not at all guaranteed. The sustained capital spending boom predicted by many in the White House could in fact materialize pushing up wages and productivity and keeping the current expansion going. But the risk of a slow down by 2020 is real. And if Dems take the House they certainly arent’t going to back any big new tax cut bills pushed by the GOP.

Morgan Stanley on the jobs number: “We expect the labor market to have generated 228,000 net new jobs in October— well above consensus (200k), with the unemployment rate holding at 3.7%. We forecast a 0.1% monthly increase in average hourly earnings … boosting the year-over-year rate to 3.0% from 2.8% due to an easy base effect. …

“Our payrolls model suggests robust employment growth, with strong indications from initial jobless … The weak payroll growth last month may have in part been driven by Hurricane Florence … These sectors should rebound in October”

Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “Don’t bet the farm on today’s October payroll numbers, which will be hopelessly—and unpredictably— compromised by the impact of hurricanes Florence and Michael. For the first time ever, as far as we know, hurricanes made landfall during the payroll survey week in successive months. …

“History suggests that the rebound in employment in the month after a major storm tends to reverse only about half of the damage. Absent Hurricane Michael, then, we’d probably look for a 240K increase in October payrolls. Estimating the hit from Michael is a deeply imprecise exercise.”

MARKETS REBOUND ON CHINA HOPE — One of the biggest concerns on investors’ minds is the potential imposition of 25 percent tariffs on over $500 billion in Chinese imports (basically all of them). That would be a huge inflation hit to consumers and producers and could force the Fed into even more tightening. So any signal that the U.S.-China cold war is thawing tends to goose stock prices, something that is clearly not lost on a president who loves to cheerlead market gains.

POLITICO’s Adam Behsudi: “Trump tried to soothe Wall Street on Thursday by claiming to have had ‘a long and very good conversation’ with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a Thursday phone call, indicating some optimism about an upcoming meeting between the two leaders.

“‘We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade,’ Trump tweeted. ‘Those discussions are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina.’ China’s state-run Xinhua news agency said the call on Thursday was made at the invitation of Trump. The meeting in Buenos Aires could be a crucial turning point in the trade fight.”

ASIA PICKS UP AS WELL — Reuters: “Asian equity markets rose on Friday as China and the United States expressed optimism about resolving their bruising trade war, though a warning from tech giant Apple Inc on holiday sales amid emerging market weakness could weigh on technology shares.” Read more.

** A message from The Equity Markets Association: We agree with the SEC. Protecting individual investor interests is critical. We’re proud of the central role that exchanges play in making U.S. equity markets more accessible for everyone, while helping to dramatically drive down U.S. retail investing costs. Learn the truth about the U.S. Equity Markets. **

WHY TRUMP IS WORRIED — Via LPL Research on the October swoon: “Besides being the worst month for the S&P 500 in seven years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.1% for its worst month since January 2016, while the Nasdaq’s -9.2% return marked its worst month since November 2008. The big loser was small caps though, as the Russell 2000 Index fell 10.9%, its worst month since September 2011.”

ALSO A CONCERN — Tariffs are clearly pinching manufactures as evidenced in the latest ISM report: “The October PM reregistered 57.7 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the September reading of 59.8 percent … The Prices Index registered 71.6 percent, a 4.7-percentage point increase from the September reading of 66.9 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 32nd consecutive month.

From one of the anecdotal reports: “Tariffs are causing inflation: increased costs of imports, increased cost of freight and increased domestic costs from suppliers who import.”

STEEL AND ALUMINUM INDUSTRY DOWN — Bloomberg’s Joe Deaux: “The largest U.S. aluminum and steel producers — companies that were supposed to benefit from tariffs — have all lost value this year. Shares of every major U.S. steel and aluminum producer are down for the year, while Century Aluminum Co. and Alcoa Corp., the country’s two biggest aluminum makers, had the worst October since 2008. ” Read more.

THE BIG IDEA: THERE IS NO “PROTECTIONIST MOMENT” — Trade lawyer Scott Lincicome in a new Cato Institute paper out this morning: “The United States’ recent implementation of protectionist tariff and trade policies has not been driven by intense public demands for such policies. In fact, recent public opinion polling uniformly reveals that … foreign trade and globalization are generally popular, and in fact more popular today than at any point in recent history

FARMERS STILL BACK TRUMP, DESPITE TARIFFS — POLITICO’s Megan Cassella in Waterloo, Ill.: “Sitting atop his combine harvester on a clear fall day, Garrett Hawkins can add up just how much … Trump’s tariffs are hitting his bottom line, from the lower price he’ll get for his soybean crop to the steeper prices he’ll pay for metal grain bins and other equipment.

“But like many of his fellow farmers in southern Illinois’ sprawling 12th Congressional District, Hawkins, 37, is still planning to vote Republican on Election Day. … There’s a disconnect between the negative effect of Trump’s policies on his voters in farm country and their unwavering support for him. That could limit the size of the Democratic majority widely expected to take control of the House next year and give Trump cover to prolong his aggressive moves against U.S. trading partners.” Read more.

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Happy weekend everyone. Email me on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on [email protected] and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

Election Day is almost here. Have you made your POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge picks yet? Don’t miss your chance to compete against the nation’s top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. The contest closes at 6 a.m. on Nov. 6. Sign up today. Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Zachary Warmbrodt’s interview with Sens. Mike Crapo and Sherrod Brown. To get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m., please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or [email protected].

DRIVING THE DAY — October jobs report at 8:30 a.m. expected to show a gain of 195K with no change to the 3.7 percent jobless rate and earnings up 0.2 percent … International Trade at 8:30 a.m. expected to show deficit rising to $53.6B … Trump has MAGA rallies in West Virginia and Indiana.

SCOOP: SEC EXPANDS CRYPTO CRACKDOWN — POLITICO’s Patrick Temple-West: “The Securities and Exchange Commission is probing investment advisers for potential misconduct involving cryptocurrencies, signaling a new direction in its oversight of the emerging market, according to three people familiar with the matter.

“The regulator is focusing on how investment advisers registered with the agency are storing the cryptocurrency assets they hold, as well as on possible price manipulation, and the digital currencies’ vulnerability to cyberattacks. The investigation marks an escalation of the SEC’s scrutiny of the digital currencies. In the last year, the agency has halted a number of initial coin offerings, and Chairman Jay Clayton has warned that it will vigorously police the industry.” Read more.

DO RENTERS HAVE IT WORSE THAN HOMEOWNERS?– POLITICO’s Aubree Eliza Weaver: When it comes to funding basic needs, renters are more likely to have trouble making ends meet than their homeowning peers, according to new data from the Urban Institute’s Well-Being and Basic Needs Survey. Compared to homeowners, renters are less likely to “have access to emergency savings and more likely to experience an unexpected drop in income,” the study shows.

“And almost half of all renters have reported struggling to pay for housing, utilities, food or medical care, versus just over one-third of homeowners. The most common shortcoming? Food expenses. Thirty percent of renters experienced food insecurity last year, while 13 percent had trouble making rent – which the Urban Institute interprets to mean that many folks end up prioritizing rent over food.

EX-GOLDMAN BANKERS FACE CHARGES — POLITICO’s Katy O’Donnell: “The Justice Department filed criminal charges today against two former Goldman Sachs bankers over their alleged involvement in a multibillion-dollar fraud involving a Malaysian government investment fund. Tim Leissner, the former chairman of Goldman’s Southeast Asia division, pleaded guilty to conspiring to launder money and violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

“He has been ordered to forfeit $43.7 million. Ng Chong Hwa, the other Goldman banker, and Malaysian financier Low Taek Jho, the alleged mastermind, were also charged with conspiring to launder billions of dollars embezzled from the 1Malaysia Development Berhad fund.” Read more.

SHUT DOWN AHEAD? —POLITICO’s Sarah Ferris: “Whatever happens on Election Day, one party will be returning to Capitol Hill with attitude issues that could put the government on the brink of another partial shutdown. And sore midterm losers may be in no mood for bipartisan concessions.

“A half-dozen House lawmakers and aides from both parties predict a lose-lose situation that complicates, if not completely halts, year-end efforts to keep the government running amid disagreements over … Trump’s border wall, as well as hundreds of billions of dollars in spending that Congress punted on this fall.” Read more.

WALL STREET REBOUNDS FOR THIRD DAY – Reuters’ Caroline Valetkevitch: “U.S. stocks rose for a third straight session on Thursday as … Trump said trade talks with China were ‘moving along nicely,’ reviving hopes that the two countries can resolve their trade dispute. Adding to the upbeat mood, the latest round of results from companies was mostly positive.

“After the bell though, shares of Apple Inc fell about 7.0 percent, pushing its market capitalization below $1 trillion, after the company said sales for the crucial holiday quarter could miss Wall Street expectations. The stock ended the regular session up 1.5 percent.” Read more.

Stocks’ biggest buyers are slowly returning – AP’s Stan Choe: “The biggest buyers of stocks are coming back. More than any other group, companies themselves are the largest purchasers of their own shares. But they were notably absent from the market the last few weeks, just as stock prices were tumbling on worries about global trade and rising interest rates.

“Businesses were holding back on repurchases the last few weeks because they were in one of their ‘blackout’ periods for buybacks, a regular occurrence leading up to the release of their quarterly results. Now that most companies in the S&P 500 index have given their third-quarter reports, blackouts are lifting, and analysts across Wall Street say the return of those buyers should help support the market.” Read more.

OCTOBER WAS A ROUGH MONTH FOR STOCK PICKERS — Bloomberg’s Charles Stein: “Stock pickers have been promising for years that once the equity market hit a rough patch, they would have a chance to prove their worth. Maybe not. Stocks had their worst month in seven years in October and less than half, or 42 percent, of actively managed mutual funds that buy large-cap U.S. equities beat the S&P 500 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Growth managers – who tend to own some of the most popular technology companies – fared the worst, with only 13 percent beating the benchmark for the month. Shares of tech stocks took a drubbing during the month. Value managers did better, with 67 percent outperforming. They typically invest in financial and health-care stocks.” Read more.

THE ELECTION-SENSITIVE STOCKS THAT COULD SWING – Reuters’ Lewis Krauskopf: “Tuesday’s midterm U.S. congressional elections stand to have broad effects on federal government policies that could ripple through industries from healthcare and tech to gunmakers and prisons. …

“Perhaps no sector will be in the election spotlight as much as healthcare, which has been one of the top-performing S&P 500 sectors this year. Policy efforts to lower prescription drug prices that have started under Trump could get more attention should Democrats gain control in Congress. Democratic gains in particular could lead investors to anticipate expanded coverage or other changes related to the Affordable Care Act, possibly benefiting some insurer company and hospital shares.” Read more.

TRUMP, POWELL STILL HAVEN’T TALKED INTEREST RATES – WSJ’s Vivian Salama: “Trump hasn’t called Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to directly express his frustration with the central bank’s interest-rate increases and currently has no intention of replacing the Fed chief, the top White House economic adviser said Thursday.

“Lawrence Kudlow said that the president’s repeated criticism of Mr. Powell’s decision to raise rates three times so far this year is a simple expression of opinion, but that Mr. Trump hasn’t taken any steps to shake up the Fed’s leadership. ‘A Fed chair can only be removed for cause,’ Mr. Kudlow said at a small-business conference hosted by the Washington Post. He added that to his knowledge, the president hasn’t called Mr. Powell to discuss his views on rates.” Read more.

BLACKROCK CEO TALKS ‘DAVOS IN THE DESERT’ – NYT’s Tiffany Hsu: “For someone who speaks often and boldly about taking a stand, Laurence D. Fink of BlackRock spends a lot of time thinking about gray areas. Mr. Fink, the founder, chairman and chief executive of the world’s largest asset manager, said that dropping out of an annual investor conference in Saudi Arabia last month — nicknamed ‘Davos in the Desert’ — was a ‘hard decision.’

“So was the choice earlier this year to offer investment options stripped of gun manufacturers and retailers. ‘These things are not black or white,’ he said on Thursday at the DealBook conference in New York.” Read more.

SMALL BANKS HINGE HOPES ON FED’S NEWEST BOARD MEMBER – WSJ’s Paul Kiernan: “Michelle ‘Miki’ Bowman, who is likely to be confirmed as the newest Federal Reserve board member this month, isn’t like most recent nominees to the central bank’s policy-making nucleus in Washington. She hasn’t previously worked at the Fed or the Treasury Department. She didn’t graduate from an Ivy League university. She has never managed billions of dollars of assets or mused publicly about the finer points of monetary policy. She isn’t an economist.

“None of that matters to advocates for thousands of small- to medium-size banks that successfully lobbied Congress to set aside a seat on the Fed’s seven-member board of governors for one of their own. They see in Ms. Bowman, age 47, a potential ally as the Fed revisits financial regulations a decade after the 2008 financial crisis.” Read more.

THE BATTLE OVER WILLIAM McKINLEY — Reuters BreakingViews’ Rob Cox: “Americans go to the polls next week. But in one California town, the fiercest debate isn’t whether Republicans or Democrats triumph in midterm elections, but over the legacy of a long-dead president, William McKinley. Citizens will vote on Tuesday on whether to remove a century-old statue from their town square of the ‘Napoleon of Protection’, who was assassinated in 1901.

“The fight in Arcata, a burg in the northern California county best known for its marijuana production, centers on McKinley’s support of America’s colonial adventures abroad and the poor treatment of Native Americans while in office. That’s a worthy discussion. But it overlooks a question of national import: McKinley’s role as the first Republican to capitalize on protectionism.” Read more.

** A message from The Equity Markets Association: Last week’s SEC roundtable on market data and access were timely and welcome. Rather than focus on myths, here are facts about the positive impacts that exchanges have on individual investors.

Retail investing costs in the U.S. are a fraction of what they once were—trading, management, and advisory fees have all experienced massive compression thanks to technology advances and competition. From 2000-2017, equity mutual fund fees and 401(k) equity fund expenses declined 40% and 42% respectively. ETF fees followed suit—declining 28% between 2009 and 2017, all while average U.S. stock trade commissions dropped 40%.

The U.S. equity markets have advanced and thrived because exchanges have been able to harness technology to create better and faster data products to benefit all investors. This is exactly as it should be if the U.S. wishes to remain the premier equity capital markets destination.

Learn the truth about the U.S. Equity Markets. **

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Source: https://hashtaghighways.com/2018/11/03/economy-could-slow-by-2020/

from Garko Media https://garkomedia1.wordpress.com/2018/11/04/economy-could-slow-by-2020/

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michaeljtraylor · 6 years

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Economy could slow by 2020

Story Continued Below

From one of the anecdotal reports: “Tariffs are causing inflation: increased costs of imports, increased cost of freight and increased domestic costs from suppliers who import.”

Learn the truth about the U.S. Equity Markets. **

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from RSSUnify feed https://hashtaghighways.com/2018/11/03/economy-could-slow-by-2020/ from Garko Media https://garkomedia1.tumblr.com/post/179736489484

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garkomedia1 · 6 years

Text

Economy could slow by 2020

Story Continued Below

From one of the anecdotal reports: “Tariffs are causing inflation: increased costs of imports, increased cost of freight and increased domestic costs from suppliers who import.”

Learn the truth about the U.S. Equity Markets. **

Source link

from RSSUnify feed https://hashtaghighways.com/2018/11/03/economy-could-slow-by-2020/

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ramialkarmi · 7 years

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TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS BRIEFING: Uber banned from London — Logistics startup Flexport scores $110 million in funding — Walmart partners with Deliv, August

Welcome to Transportation & Logistics Briefing, a new M-W-F morning email providing the latest news, data, and insight on how digital technology is disrupting transportation and delivery, produced by BI Intelligence.

Get the free Top 5 Disruptive Trends Shaping Transportation & Logistics report and start receiving our brand new Transportation & Logistics newsletter.

Have feedback? We'd like to hear from you. Write me at: [email protected] .

UBER STRIPPED OF OPERATING LICENSE IN LONDON: Uber has lost its license to operate its ride-hailing services in the city of London, Business Insider reports. Transport for London, the city’s transportation regulator, announced that it will not renew Uber’s license, which expires at the end of the month. However, Uber can continue to operate past that date as it appeals the decision, which Uber has already signaled it intends to do.

The regulator said Uber’s approach to vetting its drivers and reporting criminal offenses by its drivers was inadequate. It also cited Uber’s use of Greyball, a software program that Uber used to disrupt regulatory and law enforcement investigations into its business practices, as another reason for not renewing its license. Uber had been granted a four-month temporary license in May while Transport for London conducted a review to determine whether it would grant Uber a five-year license to operate in the city.

London is one of Uber’s most important markets — the company has 3.5 million users and 40,000 drivers there, according to Reuters. It is by far Uber’s most important market in the UK, where the company operates in 40 cities. Uber countered the regulators’ statements, saying that it has never used Greyball in the UK to disrupt an investigation, and that it follows the same background checks and criminal-reporting procedures as regular taxi companies. Uber has come under attack from a range of groups in the UK, which criticize the company for its much-maligned corporate culture, its pricing practices that undercut traditional London cabs, and the amount of taxes it pays in the UK.

The loss of its license in London is just one of many regulatory and legal challenges Uber faces in Europe. Next week, Uber will appeal a tribunal ruling that designated its drivers in the UK as employees, entitling them to minimum wage and holiday pay. Additionally, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) is also considering a case over whether Uber should be subject to the same regulations as other transportation companies. The court’s advocate general issued an advisory opinion earlier this year that Uber should be considered a transportation company, which would likely prohibit Uber from using unlicensed non-professional drivers. It would also mean Uber must comply local regulations throughout the EU regarding certifying, insuring, and paying its drivers like regular taxi companies. These various legal and regulatory challenges, the growth of competing ride-hailing services like Taxify, which launched in London earlier this month, and its ongoing leadership transition mean Uber faces a formidable task in defending its European market share in the near-term.

LOGISTICS STARTUP FLEXPORT RAISES $110 MILLION IN FUNDING: Freight forwarding startup Flexport has closed $110 million in Series C funding, mostly from previous investors, at an $800 million valuation, sources familiar with the deal told Tech Crunch. That is nearly double the $365 million valuation it received in its last funding round, which closed in late 2016.

Flexport is one of a slew of startups looking to disrupt the freight forwarding industry through software and analytics. Freight forwarders act as middle men, booking transportation for goods across land, sea, and air through their networks of trucking, shipping, and air freight partners. Traditional forwarders have long relied on paperwork, spreadsheets, and manual processes to accomplish this. Flexport and other startups are starting to digitize all of the information — including shipping rates, routes, and customs information — involved in those shipping transactions and analyze it to find ways to ship goods faster and cheaper. Flexport’s platform indexes all available carriers into a database that companies can search for free to see current shipments and rates around the world, but only allows companies to book shipments with those carriers through its own forwarding service.

Flexport will likely use the new funding to continue its rapid expansion, as it faces competition from both other startups — like Freightos and Haven — and traditional forwarders that are digitizing their own operations. The company has significantly ramped up hiring as it seeks to expand its footprint and offer shipping anywhere in the world. It has also started building its own warehouse network, allowing companies to store goods with Flexport until they can be batched together with other shipments going to the same destination. This helps Flexport lower rates and maximize efficiency by ensuring it is only shipping full containers. Flexport has two warehouses up and running in Hong Kong and Los Angeles, but reportedly plans to build out a global warehouse network. That will require major capital investments to build and operate such a network, and shift the company’s business model away from a pure software play like the other startups trying to disrupt this space.

Enjoy reading this briefing? Sign up and receive Transportation & Logistics Briefing to your inbox.

WALMART TESTS IN-HOME, CROWDSOURCED DELIVERIES: Walmart is working with smart lock manufacturer August and crowdsourced delivery startup Deliv to test a service in the Silicon Valley area that delivers groceries straight into the homes of consumers that own an August smart lock. Deliv’s couriers will be given a one-time code they can type into August’s smart locks to access consumers’ homes while they are away. Customers will receive a notification on their smartphone when the delivery person enters and exits their home, and, if they have an August security camera, can stream the delivery taking place on their phones.

This is one of a handful of crowdsourced delivery methods Walmart is exploring to meet the rapidly rising demand for its online grocery delivery service. Booming demand for Walmart’s online grocery delivery service has fueled much of the company’s overall e-commerce growth in the past few quarters. To meet this rapidly expanding order volume, the retailer has explored a handful of crowdsourced delivery methods, including experimenting with in-store employees delivering e-commerce purchases on their way home from work. These tests are just the latest in this ongoing effort.

The partnership with Deliv and August highlights the challenge of consumer trust inherent in crowd-sourcing deliveries. Crowdsourced delivery companies use non-professional couriers hired as part-time contractors, similar to how Uber uses non-professional drivers. Many consumers would likely feel uncomfortable with a delivery person entering their homes and going through their fridges and pantries. Deliv carefully vets its couriers and removes anyone who averages a rating below a 4.7 on a five-point scale. The tests will be an interesting experiment in terms of consumers’ comfort with using non-professional couriers.

In other news…

The US Department of Transportation (DoT) conducted a test of three semi-trucks platooning on a Virginia highway. Platooning is when a convoy of trucks uses semi-autonomous software to closely follow a manually-driven truck on a highway. The method creates a slipstream that lessens the trucks' wind resistance and improves their fuel efficiency. Numerous companies, including Tesla, Waymo, Daimler, have conducted platooning tests. This move by the DOT indicates that it is considering crafting regulations for semi-autonomous trucks that use the technique.

Daimler will invest $1 billion in its Alabama plant to start building fully electric sport utility vehicles in the facility, according to The Wall Street Journal. The company plans to offer fully or partially electric versions of all of its vehicles by 2022, and this investment should help it reach that goal. Daimler is one of a handful of foreign automakers that have recently invested in production facilities in the Southeastern United States, including Volvo and BMW.

Uber is reportedly conducting a wide-ranging review of its Asian business amid a US government probe examining whether the ride-hailing giant broke laws against overseas bribery, according to Bloomberg. The company notified the US government about payments made by its staff in Indonesia, and is reviewing its business units in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, as well as its China business, which was sold off to Didi Chuxing. Uber already faces stiff competition in the region from Grab, and an ongoing federal bribery probe could be problematic to the company’s efforts there.

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tragicbooks · 7 years

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8 abandoned industrial sites turned into whimsical, haunting, and gorgeous parks.

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Hallo. It’s me. Your friendly neighborhood grouch.

It’s springtime, which means the sun is shining, birds are in the air, flowers are blooming ... blech. You know what I want? Pollution! Chemicals! I want to go where the grass is orange and the water green!

Maybe I’ll just trip on down to my favorite industrial site. Seattle's got a nice one full of rusty old towers and old coal grime and beautiful chemical processing machines and ... what is this?

Where did the coal gas plant go? All the equipment's here, but it looks ... clean and beautiful?!

Photo by Mark Doliner/Flickr.

Seattle's Gas Works Park used to make coal gas, but since the 1960s, it's been a delightful public park. The old plant towers like a post-apocalyptic cityscape over grassy hills and the water of Lake Union.

Gas Works is what you could call a "reclaimed park," and a lot of places around the world have jumped on the trend of grabbing old industry or waste sites and turning them into beautiful public spaces.

And I, as a trash-and-grime-loving grouch, could not be more disappointed! I mean, check out these other seven sites people have ruined with their whole "Oh, no, we don't like trash. We like laughing and flowers and babies and laughing-flower-babies" schtick.

Freshkills Park on Staten Island used to be the largest landfill in the country.

Photo from New York City Department of Parks & Recreation.

Now it's a park filled with osprey nests and kayakers. Kayakers! See what I mean?

Then there's Glass Beach near Fort Bragg, California. Pretty again!

Photo from John Krzesinski/Flickr.

The beaches used to be perfect grouch-worthy dumping grounds, but over time, people hauled out metal and other rubbish, leaving just glass behind, which the ocean's pounded into beautiful little pebbles. Now it gets tourists!

Although, really, even I, a grouch, must admit that this German park has a kind of eerie, serene beauty to it.

Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images.

Landschaftspark in Duisburg-Meiderich, Germany, used to be an ironworks plant, but was abandoned in the 1980s. Since then, it's been reclaimed and turned into a park and cultural center. There are even high ropes courses and viewing towers!

Photo by Thomas Starke/Getty Images.

The High Line in Manhattan used to be a freight line. Now it's basically like a super-cool elevated walkway and a garden had a baby.

Photo by Stan Honda/AFP/Getty Images

Again with the babies!

Even old prisons are getting in on the bit. I mean, check out Alcatraz!

Photo from Samantha Marx/Flickr.

The gardens used to be one of the few bright spots on Alcatraz, back when it was an infamous prison. The gardens were abandoned when the prison closed down in the 1960s. Years later, with some human help, the plants exploded into this riot of color. There are even places where the plants have taken over!

Photo by Glen Bowman/Flickr.

Although, as much as I hate to admit it, I do really dig that whole overgrown ruins vibe...

The Huangpu River waterfront in Shanghai, China, used to be a steel factory and shipyard, but look at it now.

Photo by Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images

Now it's known as Houtan Park. Regenerative wetlands are helping to restore the environment, while long, winding paths give visitors a beautiful experience right in the heart of one of the world's biggest cities.

Finally, check out Cheonggyecheon stream in Seoul, South Korea.

Photo by Park Ji-Hwan/AFP/Getty Images

The stream used to be a gigantic, trash-filled eyesore and was actually covered over in concrete in the 1950s, but today, it's been restored into this grand public space.

And while trash is lovely, splashing around in that water does look like fun...

Fine, fine! You win! Even this grouch must admit reclaiming old industrial sites is pretty legit.

The mix between old tech and lovely green space, the concept of taking the old and revitalizing it, history and fun twisted together ... it's pretty magical. Plus, having parks nearby can make people happier and healthier!

You got me, springtime. I guess I have no choice but to go enjoy the new life humans have breathed into these old sites. Good job, guys.

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