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Modi's BJP weathers demonetisation storm: Key takeaways from India Today Axis Opinion poll on UP

Despite the inconvenience faced by citizens after the Prime Minister's surprise announcement on demonetisation, the BJP seems poised to bag the crucial battleground state of Uttar Pradesh.

The latest opinion poll done by Axis-My-India for the India Today Group released on the day the Election Commission announced the schedule of elections in five states, shows that the BJP is in pole position to end it's 14 year Vanvaas in UP.

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BIGGEST TAKEAWAYS FROM THE OPINION POLL ON UP'S GAME OF THRONES:

BJP projected to secure a majority by bagging between 206-216 seats in UP. This is about 30 seats more than the number of seats the BJP was projected to bag in the first UP opinion done by Axis My India in October.

Samajwadi Party in its current avatar is projected to emerge as second largest party bagging between 92-97 seats. Despite the infighting in the Samajwadi Party, in the last three months the SP's graph seems to have risen while the BSP has slipped from second to third place.

BSP is likely to bag between 79-85 seats. In the last Opinion Poll the BSP's tally was projected between 115-124. The reason behind the BSP's decline seems to be its inability to get incremental voters beyond its traditional Dalit vote bank. In 2007 the BSP had won on the back of upper caste Brahmins joining the BSP's Dalit bandwagon. In 2017, BSP's appeal among non-Dalits seems to be limited.

Rahul Gandhi's high voltage campaign and Prashant Kishore's electoral strategising seems to have made no difference to the Congress' fortunes. The party's tally is projected to decline to between 5-9 seats from 28 seats in the 2012 polls.

BJP's projected vote share has gone up to 33% from 31% in the Opinion Poll done by Axis My India in October.

Even though both the SP and the BSP have 26% vote share, SP likely to bag more seats because it's vote share is concentrated, unlike the BSP who's votes are spread across the state.

An overwhelming 76% of the respondents in the survey support demonetisation. But people are split on whether the aam aadmi is inconvenienced by DeMo. 58% report that they have been facing problems because of DeMo, 42% say they are not inconvenienced. The bump in the BJP's vote share in the new poll indicates that despite the inconvenience caused by DeMo, people believe that PM Modi's move will ultimately benefit the nation.

More than half the respondents (51%) say that they believe that DeMo will help eliminate the menace of black money and fake notes.

The BJP's attempts to break into the Yadav vote bank of the SP is not making much headway. 72% of the Yadavs polled say that they will vote for the undivided SP.

One of the reasons behind the BSP's falling graph is that the Muslims of UP who were earlier divided between the SP and the BSP now seem to be gravitating towards the SP. 71% of the Muslims polled in December say they will vote for the SP. In October the SP's Muslim support stood at 58%. In the same period the the BSP's support among Muslims has fallen from 21% to 14%.

Among all age categories the SP's support is highest amongst the youth, thanks to the image Akhilesh has been able to build among the youngsters in the state.

The BJP's popularity is maximum among the 60+ voters of UP where it has 37% support, four percent more than its overall vote share.

Young Akhilesh Yadav is the top choice to be the state's next CM, with 33% of the respondents backing him for the job. Mayawati comes in second with 25% support. Even though Home Minister Rajnath Singh has indicated that he's not in the race, he's still the BJP's best bet, with 20% of the respondents backing him to be the next CM.

As has been the case in previous opinion polls, Mayawati has the highest approval ratings when it comes to the question of who's best placed to handle law and order in UP. 48% of the respondents thought that she would do the best job. 28% backed Akhilesh Yadav to best handle law and order in UP.

This Opinion Poll has a sample size of 8480. The field work was done by a team of 35 surveyors between 12-24 December.

This poll does not factor in the impact of any possible split in the Samajwadi Party nor does it look at the impact of an alliance among the SP, Congress and RLD. In a multi corner race with small margins, the coming together of 'secular forces' can change all current calculations.

Explaining what could change from here on, Pradeep Gupta the lead pollster for Axis-My-India told India Today, "As of now Muslim votes are consolidated behind the SP. But if the Samajwadi Party splits, Muslims will have to rethink their support. Minorities could once again swing towards BSP or pick the Akhilesh and Congress alliance. A Dalit plus Muslim combination can pose a serious challenge to the BJP."

Battling demonetisation headwinds, the BJP believes it will do even better than the India Today poll suggests. Party General Secretary in-charge of Uttar Pradesh Om Mathur told India Today, "For the last two and a half years BJP workers have been working on every booth in the state. Our efforts will deliver even better results than what your poll shows. Our own calculation shows we will get more than 300 seats. You can take this in writing from me."

BSP representatives refused to comment on the findings of the Axis Opinion Poll saying that polls always tend to underestimate BSP's vote share and that the people would speak for their party.

Reacting to the poll findings Samajwadi Party spokesperson Gaurav Bhatia told India Today, "The current differences in the Samajwadi Party will be resolved by dialogue and the SP will fight as one united front. We are very confident that on the plank of development Akhilesh Yadav will lead SP to victory again. There is nobody in the state who can match the progressive image of Akhilesh Yadav."

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Also read: BJP set to win Uttar Pradesh: India Today-Axis Opinion Poll shows demonetisation is good for Modi

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