#Weekly inflation down 40 basis points

[lovacedon]

Weekly inflation down 40 basis points

ISLAMABAD: The expectations of a rise in the prices of common commodities during the current fiscal year continue to remain well grounded as inflation, calculated  for the combined income groups, decreased by 40 basis points on a week-on-week basis, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data showed on Friday. 

The PBS numbers revealed the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ending on April 28, 2017 figured at 220.10 points against 220.99 points in the previous week, down 0.4 percent.

According to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), this has been largely due to the near-absence of any major supply side pressures.  As compared to the corresponding week of the last year, the SPI for the combined group in the week under review witnessed an increase of 3.02 percent. 

The PBS said that the weekly SPI has been computed with base 2007, 2008=100, covering 17 urban centers and 53 essential items for all income groups and combined. 

Another comparison showed that the SPI for the lowest income group (up to Rs8,000) decreased by 0.49 percent, going down from 210.19 points last week to 209.15 points in the period under review.

As against to the last week, the SPI for the income groups from Rs8001 to 12,000, Rs 12,001 to 18,000, Rs 18,001 to Rs35,000 and above Rs35,000, also decreased by 0.46 percent, 0.45 percent,0.4 percent and 0.35 percent respectively. 

During the week under review, average prices of 17 items went down, rates five items increased, while the prices of rest of the 31 items remained unchanged.

The items, which were sold at comparatively lower prices during the week included tomatoes, onions, garlic, eggs, potatoes, bananas, LPG cylinder, chicken, wheat flour, vegetable ghee, wheat, sugar, masoor pulse, gur, red chili, mash pulse and gram pulse.

The items, the average prices of which inflated, included tea (packet), moong pulse, mutton, rice (basmati broken) and curd.

 The central bank in its last month’s monetary policy statement said that going forward, improving consumer confidence, as depicted by Consumer Confidence Survey of March 2017, indicates further increase in consumer demand.

  Weekly inflation down 40 basis points

[extreme-investor-network]

U.S. stocks fall as Treasury yields continue to surge

Twitter shares lower after social-media company says Musk won’t take a board seat after all U.S. stocks were under pressure Monday, with tech and other growth names bearing the brunt, as Treasury yields continued to soar ahead of a busy week in inflation data. What’s happening - The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA fell 140 points, or 0.4%, to 34,580. - The S&P 500 SPX was down 40 points, or 0.9%, at 4,448. - The Nasdaq Composite COMP slumped 199 points, or 1.5%, to 13,512. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slumped 3.9% last week, its worst performance since late January, joining the S&P 500 in breaking a string of three consecutive weekly gains. The Dow fell for a second week. What’s driving markets The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose to the highest level since 2019, topping 2.75% as a selloff extended to a seventh straight session. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices. Rising bond yields can be a headwind for stocks, particularly tech and other growth stocks whose valuations are based on the expected profit and cash flow far into the future. Higher yields on risk-free Treasurys mean those future flows are less valuable in present terms.A difficult year for stocks and bonds As bonds slump, equities feel pressure Source: FactSetiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFE-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous​ContractE-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index Continuous​Contract2022April-25-20-15-10-505% Ahead of bank earnings and inflation data later in the week, traders were left focusing on the health of the market. Michael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners, said the S&P 500 is overvalued even with the recent pullback. He said that for the equity risk premium — the earnings yield minus the bond yield — to move back to its five-year average, one of four things would have to happen: bond yields to fall by around 100 basis points, earnings to rise about 20%, the stock market to fall about 17% or some combination of the three. “Our valuation work shows that financials remain the most attractive cyclical sector while healthcare is the most attractive defensive sector. High valuation tech across the capitalization structure remains an ‘avoid’ or a short, in our view,” said Darda. Stocks to watch - Elon Musk remained in the headlines after Twitter Inc. TWTR Chief Executive Parag Agrawal said Tesla Inc. TSLA chief “has decided not to join our board.” Twitter had announced last week that Musk would join the board after regulatory filings revealed that had become the social-media platform’s top shareholder. Twitter shares fell 1.8%. - The impact of China’s lockdowns was on display as electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc. NIO said it would have to suspend production due to disruptions to its supply chain. Nio’s American depositary shares were down 9.6%. - Shares of Shopify Inc. SHOP fell 0.4% after the Canada-based e-commerce software company said it was planning for a 10-for-1 split of its common stock, in an effort to make its shares “more accessible to all investors.” - Sailpoint Technologies Inc. shares SAIL surged nearly 30% after the cybersecurity company confirmed an agreement to be acquired by private equity firm Thoma Bravo in a deal valued at $6.9 billion. - Veru Inc. shares VERU rose nearly 34% after the biopharmaceutical company announced positive results from a Phase 3 trial of its oral COVID-19 treatment. How other assets are trading - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.1%. - Oil futures retreated, with the U.S. benchmark CL down 4% to trade near $94.50 a barrel. Gold futures GC00 rose 1% to around $1,965 an ounce. - Bitcoin BTCUSD slumped 3% to trade near $41,000. - The Stoxx Europe 600 XX:SXXP and London’s FTSE 100 UK:UKX were both down 0.5%. - Stocks slumped in Asia, with the Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP ending 2.6% lower, while the Hang Seng Index HK:HSI fell 3% in Hong Kong, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 JP:NIK shed 0.6%. Original Article Here: Read the full article

[freepressjournals]

Share Market LIVE: Sensex cuts gains, turns red, Nifty below 16600, trend positive above 16500

Share Market News Today | Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices LIVE: Domestic markets were witnessing a pullback at the start of the day’s trade on Dalal Street. S&P BSE Sensex opened just shy of 56,000 mark, rising more than 400 points or 0.6%. NSE Nifty 50 was above 16,700. Bank Nifty zoomed half a per cent to regain 35,500. India VIX was down 6%. Tech Mahindra was up 2% as the top Sensex gainer, followed by Power Grid, NTPC, and IndusInd Bank. In the red, Asian Paints was the top laggard, accompanied by Ultratech Cement, Maruti Suzuki, and Nestle India.

Making fighting inflation his primary task, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, on Wednesday, signalled the central bank would start raising rates this month despite uncertainties stemming from the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Powell, in his remarks to the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, reiterated the core Fed narrative that high inflation and an “extremely tight” labour market warrant higher interest rates. The US Fed Chair said that he is inclined to propose a 25 basis point rate hike later this month. The rate of inflation in the US has scaled a 40-year high.

Share Market Today | Sensex, Nifty, BSE, NSE, Share Prices, Stock Market News Live Updates

Infosys, HCL Tech, ONGC, Vedanta, Maruti Suzuki, Union Bank stocks in focus on weekly F&O expiry day

Domestic equity benchmarks BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 were staring at a gap-up start on Thursday, a day of weekly F&O expiry. Nifty futures were trading 41 points or 0.25 per cent up at 16,658 on the Singaporean Exchange. In the previous session, S&P BSE Sensex managed to cut some intraday losses, but still closed 778 points or 1.38% in the red at 55,468 while NSE Nifty 50 ended 187 points or 1.12% lower at 16,605. Asian peers were trading in green as oil prices continued to move higher with Brent crude oil topping $117 per barrel.

[orbemnews]

Jobless Claims Could Reflect Fall in Virus Caseloads: Live Updates Here’s what you need to know: Coronavirus caseloads have been dropping amid vaccination efforts, but until employers and consumers feel that the pandemic is under control, economists say, the labor market won’t fully recover.Credit…James Estrin/The New York Times An update on the labor market’s health is due Thursday morning when the Labor Department is scheduled to release its weekly report on applications for government unemployment insurance. Although new jobless claims are nowhere near the eye-popping levels seen last spring, they are still extraordinarily high by historical standards. There are roughly 10 million fewer jobs than there were last year at this time. Wall Street analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect a reduction in initial weekly claims for state jobless benefits. Coronavirus caseloads have been dropping amid efforts to get vaccines to people who are most vulnerable. But until employers and consumers feel that the pandemic is under control, economists say, the labor market won’t fully recover. “Until people feel this is sustained and that there’s not another huge wave coming, I can’t imagine we’re going to see big changes in jobless claims for a while,” said Allison Schrager, an economist at the Manhattan Institute. Leaders at the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department have said the damage to the labor market is much deeper than has been reflected in published government figures, estimating that the true unemployment rate is closer to 10 percent than to the 6.3 percent recorded in the Labor Department’s most commonly cited measure. Testifying before Congress this week, Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said: “The economic recovery remains uneven and far from complete, and the path ahead is highly uncertain.” Those hardest hit are in the service industry, particularly in restaurants, hospitality, leisure and travel. At the career site Indeed, job postings over all are 5 percent higher than they were a year ago, with demand greatest for warehouse and construction workers and drivers, said AnnElizabeth Konkel, an economist at the company. “We need job postings to stay elevated above prepandemic baseline to pull people back into the labor market,” she said. An AMC theater near Times Square. Shares in AMC, a company that has struggled through the pandemic, have been hyped on Reddit’s Wallstreetbets forum.Credit…Angela Weiss/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Shares in GameStop were up 45 percent in premarket trading on Thursday, following another surge in the share price of the video game retailer that was at the center of a retail trading frenzy last month. On Wednesday, GameStop’s shares doubled to $91.71 and the volume of trading was more than 10 times the level of the previous day. Some of the popular posts on Reddit’s Wallstreetbets forum, where users have been hyping up certain stocks in memes, read “ROUND 2!” and “THE COMEBACK!!!!!” Other meme stocks also rose: AMC shares gained 17 percent in premarket trading, and BlackBerry, Nokia and Koss were also among the gainers. Earlier this week, GameStop announced its chief financial officer would leave the company next month. The company is under pressure from a large shareholder to shift from a brick-and-mortar business to a digital and e-commerce firm. U.S. markets Futures of U.S. stock indexes were little changed before the latest weekly report on state unemployment benefit claims. Economists expect a fall in the number, but the levels are still high by historical standards. Bond yields continued to jump. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 1.43 percent. This month, the yield has climbed 37 basis points. Analysts at Bank of America raised their forecast for bond yields, expecting the 10-year yield to be at 1.75 percent at the end of the year because of stronger economic growth. Last month, they forecast 1.5 percent for year-end. Federal Reserve policymakers have been playing down concerns about inflation. In a second day of testimony to lawmakers on Wednesday, the Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, reiterated his message that a short-term jump in inflation, which is expected this year, is different from sustained higher inflation. And so the central bank could keep its easy money policies for awhile. Separately, the vice chair, Richard Clarida, said monetary policy was “entirely appropriate not only now, but — given my outlook for the economy — for the rest of the year.” Europe Most European stock indexes were higher. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.3 percent. Shares in Mondi, a British company which sells packaging and paper products, dropped 1.2 percent after Bloomberg reported it was looking into a takeover of its rival DS Smith. Shares of Smith were up 6.6 percent. Senator Bernie Sanders said Walmart’s profits continued to be supported by taxpayers, who are paying for the health care and food expenses of the company’s lowest-paid workers.Credit…Anna Moneymaker for The New York Times With the debate over raising the federal minimum wage heating up, Senator Bernie Sanders is putting the spotlight on some of the nation’s largest employers and their pay practices in a hearing on Capitol Hill on Thursday. Walmart and McDonald’s, which have not yet raised their starting wages to $15 an hour, will be the primary focus of Mr. Sanders’s scrutiny. Mr. Sanders, a Vermont independent, plans to highlight research by the Government Accountability Office showing that Walmart and McDonald’s are among the companies with the highest number of employees qualifying for Medicaid and food stamps in many states. “One of the scandals in the current economy is that there are millions of workers working for starvation wages,” Mr. Sanders said in an interview this week. The chief executives of Walmart and McDonald’s were invited to attend Thursday’s hearing of the Senate Budget Committee but declined. W. Craig Jelinek, the chief executive of Costco, which pays some of the highest wages in the retail industry, is the only top executive who agreed to testify. “A small percentage of our work force may come to us on public assistance and we welcome them,” Walmart said in an email to Mr. Sanders’s office last week. “We hire them, train them and give them the chance to earn a paycheck. And we are immensely proud of their work and their continued efforts to successfully support themselves and their families.” McDonald’s responded in a similar vein in a letter to Mr. Sanders’s office on Tuesday: “We appreciate the findings of the G.A.O. report that identify a small percentage of our work force that may utilize public assistance, and we work to prepare them for career opportunities both inside and outside of the McDonald’s system.” In its letter, McDonald’s added that its average wage was nearly $12 an hour, but the company did not provide its starting wage nor respond to a follow-up request from The New York Times for the number. Last week, Walmart said that it was raising the wages of 425,000 workers and that about half of its work force in the United States would earn at least $15 an hour. But the company’s chief executive, Doug McMillon, stopped short of saying whether the company would eventually extend a $15 minimum to all employees. Mr. Sanders said Walmart’s profits continued to be supported by taxpayers, who are paying for the health care and food expenses of the company’s lowest-paid workers and further enriching the retailer’s founding family and large shareholders, the Waltons. “I think the American people really should not have to subsidize through their taxes the wealthiest family in the world,” Mr. Sanders said. “We are going to make that point over and over and over again.” A $52 million campaign promoting Covid-19 vaccinations began on Thursday morning.Credit…Ad Council A broad promotional effort to combat Covid-19 vaccine skepticism began rolling out on Thursday, backed by the nonprofit advertising group Ad Council and a coalition of experts known as the Covid Collaborative. The campaign, “It’s Up to You,” encourages Americans to seek out facts about the available vaccines. The Ad Council commissioned research that concluded that 40 percent of the public had yet to decide whether to be vaccinated as soon as possible. In Black and Hispanic communities, which have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, 60 percent of people do not feel fully informed, according to the study. Public service announcements will appear in English and Spanish on television, social media and other platforms. More than 300 companies, community groups and public figures — including Facebook, iHeartMedia, the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People and Dr. Sanjay Gupta of CNN — contributed to the $52 million push, as did the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Several spots point viewers toward a landing page, GetVaccineAnswers.org, using messages such as “Getting back to the moments we missed starts with getting informed” and this one: “You’ve got questions. That’s normal.” A punchy video from Google shows animated arms with colorful post-vaccination bandages coalescing into the shape of the United States, while an offering from Verizon juxtaposes scenes of human connection with images of weddings and graduations conducted over video chat. The Ad Council endeavor is one of several concurrent campaigns aimed at raising awareness and acceptance of the vaccines, including efforts from vaccine producers such as Pfizer and Moderna. NBCUniversal built a vaccination push around the informational site PlanYourVaccine.com, while the #ThisIsOurShot campaign features health care workers who have been vaccinated. In Britain, an ad debunking myths about the vaccine was broadcast simultaneously across several television channels this month, focusing on ethnic minority communities. If confirmed as U.S. trade representative, Katherine Tai will need to fill in the details of the Biden administration’s “worker-focused” trade approach.Credit…Hilary Swift for The New York Times The Biden administration is hoping that its nominee for U. S. trade representative, Katherine Tai, who is scheduled to appear for her confirmation hearing on Thursday morning before the Senate Finance Committee, can serve as a consensus builder and help bridge the Democratic Party’s varying views on trade, Ana Swanson reports for The New York Times. Ms. Tai has strong connections in Congress, and supporters expect her nomination to proceed smoothly. But if confirmed, she will face bigger challenges, including filling in the details of what the Biden administration has called its “worker-focused” trade approach. As trade representative, Ms. Tai will be a key player in restoring alliances strained under former President Donald J. Trump, as well as formulating the administration’s China policy, where she is expected to draw on prior experience bringing cases against China at the World Trade Organization. She will also take charge on decisions on matters that divide the Democratic Party, like whether to keep or scrap the tariffs Mr. Trump imposed on foreign products, and whether new foreign trade deals will help the United States compete globally or end up selling American workers short. Source link Orbem News #Caseloads #claims #fall #Jobless #Live #Reflect #Updates #Virus

[infinitemarilynmonroe]

THE VILLAIN AND THE SHOWGIRL: A CLOSER LOOK AT ARTHUR MILLER AND MARILYN MONROE

[Please note that all credit for this article goes to the wonderful team at Immortal Marilyn.] ------------------ Arthur Miller. In the Marilyn community his very name conjures up images of The Hooded Claw; a cartoon villain with very few likeable qualities, a man whose appearance in the life of the heroine provokes boos and hisses from the viewing public. When an Arthur Miller photo or article is posted online in a Marilyn community group you can almost guarantee that it will be followed a flurry of negative comments, polarised views and hot debate. One comment that crops up on a regular basis is this; he didn’t love her at all.

Joe versus Arthur? To the press and much of the American public, Joe DiMaggio and Marilyn Monroe were a dream couple; the legendary sportsman and the sexy movie star, happily married and planning a life together. By late 1954, less than a year after their wedding, their passionate relationship had broken down when it had become apparent to Marilyn that the couple had little in common. Joe had a jealous streak and wanted a wife but instead, he got a movie star. There were rumours of domestic violence and after just nine months, the couple divorced. For the remainder of her life, Joe worked hard to woo Marilyn back and change his ways, only maintaining his distance when she married Miller. In 1961 after her divorce, Joe was on hand to offer Marilyn his support and friendship when she needed it. At the time she said “I’ve always been able to reply on Joe after the first bitterness of our parting faded.”

Tragically less than a year later he was the one person that Bernice turned to when she needed someone to claim the body of her half-sister while she made the trip from Florida to the west coast. A heartbroken Joe maintained a promise he had made to Marilyn during their courtship when they had discussed the loving gesture made by William Powell after Jean Harlow’s early death. Joe kept that promise for twenty years; a weekly delivery of fresh roses to Marilyn’s crypt. In the eyes of many, how could any other man compete with Joe’s devotion?

Marilyn met Arthur Miller during the filming of ‘As Young As You Feel’ in 1951. He had made the trip west with friend and director, Elia Kazen, who was under contract with Fox and had some business with the studios. Over the course of several days, Marilyn, who knew Kazen through a casual affair, accompanied the duo to various meetings and had later run into them at a party. Marilyn’s acting coach, Natasha Lytess recalled Marilyn telling her “It was like running into a tree! You know, like a cool drink when you’ve got a fever. You see my toe, this toe? Well he sat and held my toe and we just looked into each other’s eyes almost all evening.” In his 1987 biography, Miller recalled a distressed Marilyn still grieving over the death of agent and lover Johnny Hyde “her face seemed puffed (with crying) and not especially beautiful but she could hardly move a finger without striking the heart with the beauty of its curving line.”

On his return to New York, the couple acknowledged that a spark had been ignited and over the course of the next four years exchanged a number of letters. Miller was racked with guilt as he was married with two children however; at this point he states their connection was purely an emotional one. In his journals he noted “I no longer knew what I wanted, certainly not the end of my marriage, but the thought of putting Marilyn out of my life was unbearable.”

After her marriage to Joe was over, Marilyn left the west coast and went into exile in New York where she headed for The Actors Studio and eventually to Arthur Miller, who later separated and divorced his first wife Mary. Marilyn and Arthur married in 1956 and sadly went through the heartache of unsuccessful pregnancies, infidelity and 1960, the breakdown of their marriage. Although Miller remarried within a year of their divorce, he was still struggling with aspects of his second marriage some 40 years later. His final play, ‘Finishing the Picture’, was a narrative about the filming of The Misfits, written just a few months before his own death in 2005.

So why is Arthur credited with Marilyn’s downfall and why do many believe he used her? He was aloof and didn’t show emotion; Miller wasn’t Joe. He was not conventionally attractive and was awkward in his dealings with the press. He did not enjoy being in the limelight and naively believed that once the news of their marriage had broken, that they would be left alone to get on with their lives. He was wrong. The couple were ridiculed by journalists (‘The Egghead and the Hourglass’) and Marilyn’s efforts to move into dramatic roles were often treated with contempt. Put bluntly, the tone was set and the press were going to run and run with it and to this day, they still do. 

Didn’t he need good publicity during the McCarthy Trials? Not really. Miller stood by his convictions when subpoenaed to appear before The House of Un-American Activities Committee. He had been called to testify and was offered a chance for this to ‘go away’ if he would arrange for a photo call between Marilyn and the Head of the Committee. He point blank refused. In 1957 he was found guilty of contempt of congress and was fined, blacklisted and disallowed a passport when he refused to ‘name names.’ In 1958 this verdict was overturned by the Court of Appeal after they found that the Head of the Committee had misled Miller. At the time Marilyn wrote “I am so concerned about protecting Arthur. I love him and he is the only person, the only human being I have ever known that I could love, not only as a man – to which I am attracted to practically out of my senses about – but he is the only person I trust as much as myself.”

He married her for her money. Not true. Financially Miller was comfortable, he had a successful career and his work was admired by the critics. Miller did have an ex-wife and two children to support and he honoured that commitment; Marilyn had a part to play in the breakdown of that marriage and she was adamant that his children were taken care of. Financially, she knew what she was getting into. In addition, Miller was incurring almost daily legal costs with the drawn out proceedings of the HUAC which dragged on for nearly two years. Marilyn supported her husband during this process 100% and was proud that he had fought for his principles. She knew what this meant to their finances and as the main breadwinner during this period, her work supported the couple and their lifestyle.

He didn’t love her. From their first meeting, Marilyn and Miller set out on a long distance friendship that evolved into a deep and meaningful love affair. Marilyn sought support for her aspirations to be a dramatic actress and Miller found a woman who was emotionally intelligent, treated badly by the Hollywood system and wanted to be appreciated for all that she was; a serious actress and pupil, a wife and hopefully in time, a mother.

By the time the couple’s relationship had gone public, they had been meeting in secret for nearly a year, and the excitement of this private affair had so inflated the expectations they had of one another that they were almost in trouble from the start. As in many new relationships, they presented the best version of themselves to the other and as the marriage came under pressure from external forces, it was tested to breaking point. Miller found himself in the role of confidante, mentor and for some periods, carer and every decision he made revolved around Marilyn’s career and needs. He wanted to support her fully and as her distrust for others around her grew, she expected 100% loyalty and more and more of his time. When Marilyn discovered critical notes that Miller had made in his journal about her, the threads of trust began to unravel.

The most significant strain on the couple is so often overlooked but yet is so obvious. Marilyn desperately wanted children with Arthur, her two confirmed pregnancies ended in heartbreak in 1957 (an ectopic pregnancy that had to be terminated to save Marilyn’s life) and 1958 when they lost a baby approximately four months into her pregnancy. These tragic events occurred in an era when there was little support or understanding of the impact of miscarriage on a couples mental health and Marilyn suffered greatly. Her insomnia was out of control, her dependency on prescribed medication increased and she had at least three hospital admissions for corrective surgeries. This was to try and alleviate the symptoms of the painful gynaecological condition endometriosis, which was affecting her chances of conceiving and carrying a child. Miller sought help for Marilyn and encouraged her to see her doctors but on at least two occasions, he found her unresponsive after she had taken too much medication. After four years of marriage and Marilyn’s extra marital affair with co-star Yves Montand, Miller was exasperated and drained. He believed that the woman he loved was now beyond help and that he had failed her, he had failed to save her from herself.

Arthur Miller was not a saint. His behaviour towards Marilyn at times was ill judged and cruel. His remarriage so soon after their divorce and the news he was expecting a child must have been incredibly difficult for Marilyn but the reality was they had both moved on. The publication of his play ‘After the Fall’ came too soon after Marilyn’s death and despite his protests that Maggie was not a portrayal of Marilyn, the critics were divided. One could argue that Arthur was a writer and this was his outlet, but should he have published it? If Marilyn had lived, there may not have been a play at all and there is a possibility that the two may have become friends again as she did with Joe, but we will never know.

There was no public romantic gesture after her death as there was with Joe. However towards the end of his life, Christopher Bigsby, who was writing a book on Miller, was given access to some of his papers and to the man himself at the home he had once shared with Marilyn. Bigsby noted that Miller had kept five letters Marilyn had written to him during their courtship. However, the most poignant reminder of their time together hung in the garage; Marilyn’s bicycle was in the same place she had left it, some forty years before.

Is it fair to bash Arthur because he wasn’t Joe or can we accept that Marilyn made her own choices and loved and was loved in return?

As for the big question, did Miller really love Marilyn?

The best person to ask is Miller himself. “She was a whirling light to me then, all paradox and enticing mystery, street tough one moment then lifted by a lyrical and poetic sensitivity that few retain past early adolescence. It was an ironical summer that I will never forget, my soul only half there (at work) and exhilarated with life and at the same time ridden with guilt. I loved her as though I had loved her all my life; her pain was mine” “First of all I took her at her own evaluation; I thought she was a very serious girl, because I loved her. Because I took that view, she thought the best of her was in my eyes” “I too was struggling because I could not smash her enemies with one magic stroke, our own relationship was wounded because she was beyond my reassurance, she had no means of preventing the complete unravelling of her belief in a person once a single thread was broken” “Her incredible resilience was almost heroic to me now. Without discussion we both knew we had effectively parted and I thought a pressure had been removed from her, and for that much I was glad” “I realised now, as I longed for a miracle, that I had come to believe no analysis could reach into her. I had no saving mystery to offer her; nor could her hand be taken if she would not hold it out. I had lost my faith in a lasting cure coming from me, and wondered if indeed it would come from any human agency at all.” “There was a lot of pain, certainly for her, and certainly for me. It was a defeat. She was a super sensitive instrument and that’s exciting to be around. Until it starts to self-destruct” “The great thing about her to me, was that the struggle was valiant, she was a very courageous human being and she didn’t give up till the end” Sources: Timebends – Bloomsbury Publishing 1987 60 Minutes Interview – Arthur Miller. 1987 Arena Interview with the BBC – Arthur Miller

[crestico]

Treasury Yields Decline Following ECB Rate Cut Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.7109, 2.76 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.7385. Stocks opened higher as the US agreed to delay the October 1st tariff increase to October 15th, which will affect about $250 billion in Chinese imports. The Dow Jones rose 57 points (0.20%) at the open, the S&P 500 gained 3.00%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.50%. The Dow and S&P 500 entered today's session less than 1.00% from record highs reached in July. The Dow also closed above 27,000 on Wednesday for the first time since July 30th while the S&P 500 broke above 3,000 for the first time since July 31st. The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points and established a new bond buying program. Gold jumped 1.40% to $1,517.71 an ounce and silver advance to 0.80% to $18.27 per ounce. The yield on 10-Year Treasuries decreased 6 basis points to 1.68%, while the yield on 2-year Treasuries remained virtually unchanged. The US Treasury will offer $40 billion and $50 billion at its weekly auction of 8-week and 4-week bills, respectively. The Medical-Care Index rose 0.70% from the prior month. The report reflected a 1.90% monthly rise and 18.60% annual increase in health-insurance prices, along with increases in hospital services and non-prescription drugs. Also contributing to the core inflation gain were used-car prices, which were up 1.10% for a 3rd straight increase, while new vehicle costs dropped for a second month. Energy prices fell 1.90% from the prior month as gasoline dropped 3.50%. Food prices we unchanged for a third month, while apparel was up 0.20%. A separate report from the Labor Department showed average hourly earnings rose 1.50% in August from a year earlier, following 1.40% in July. The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 2.76 bps. — view on Instagram https://ift.tt/2LMd4Hk

[its-veso]

Forex Weekly Outlook March 13-17

US PPI, Claimant Count Change, inflation data, Retail sales, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Economic Projections and Rate decision, Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, GDP data from New Zealand and Rate decision in Japan and the UK. These are the main events on forex calendar for this week. Join us for our weekly outlook to explore these market movers.

Last week US Nonfarm payrolls[1] was released showing the US labor market created 235,000 new jobs in February, beating forecasts of 196,000 gain. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to 4.7% in the first full month of President Donald Trump’s term. Average hourly earnings rose sharply by a 2.8% on an annualized basis. The total number of employed Americans surged by 447,000 to 152.5 million, the highest ever, leading the way for the Fed’s next rate hike next week.

Let’s start,

US Producer Prices: Tuesday, 12:30.  US producer prices edged up 0.6%, recording their largest gain in four years due to increases in the cost of energy products, However, the strength of the dollar kept inflation tame. Economists expected a 0.3% rise. Despite this sharp gain, the PPI yearly growth remained unchanged at 1.6% as in the 12 months through December. Core PPI, a more reliable measure of underlying producer price pressures excluding food, energy and trade services increased 0.2% after gaining 0.1% in December. Producer prices are expected to rise 0.1% this time.

UK Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefits dropped in January by 42,400, following a revised decline of 20,500 in December. It was the sharpest decline since the fourth quarter of 2013. In the last three months, unemployment fell by 7000 to 1.6 million. The unemployment rate is the lowest since 2005 with a reading of 4.8%. The number of new unemployed in the UK is expected to rise by 3,200 in February.

US Inflation data: Wednesday, 13:30. The U.S. inflation jumped in January by 0.6%, the highest since February 2013, due to higher costs for gasoline and services indicating inflation is gaining momentum. This rise followed a 0.3% climb in December. Rising prices of energy clothing and new cars indicate inflation pressures are mounting amid healthy demand. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that more interest-rate increases will be executed if inflation picks up and the labor market remains tight. US Consumer prices are estimated to remain unchanged while core inflation is expected to gain 0.2% in February.

US Retail sales: Wednesday, 13:30. Retail sales for January picked up matching the rise in consumer confidence with 0.4% gain, exceeding modest forecasts of 0.1%. Furthermore, December’s retail sales were revised higher to a strong plus 1.0%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales soared a sharp 0.8% in January which again topped estimates. This upbeat data points to a strong momentum for consumer spending, being the most important sector in US economy. Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.2% and core sales are predicted to rise 0.1%.

US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. U.S. crude oil inventories jumped to another record high, rising 8.2 million barrels in the week to March 3. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks have contracted by 6.6 million barrels, posting the largest one-week drop in nearly six years. Analysts expected crude stocks to rise by a mere 1.1 mlb. Crude stocks imports rose by 385,000 barrels per day while gasoline stocks fell by rising demand.

US FOMC Economic Projections and rate decision: Wednesday, 18:00. The Federal Reserve’s rate hike on December 14 was a near certainty but not so for its economic projections in light of the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s fiscal policy. Fed Chair Janet Yellen noted that the U.S. central bank is “operating under a cloud of uncertainty at the moment” regarding impacts of the new government’s potential fiscal measures on the economy. The FOMC sees three rate hikes in 2017, instead of the two from September’s projections. But beyond 2017, the assessments are the same as in September. Regarding growth projections, the Fed sees a 2% rise, falling to 1.8% in the longer run. The unemployment rate is estimated to reach 4.5% between 2017 and 2019 before rising to 4.8 percent in the longer term. At Federal Funds rate meeting in March The FOMC is expected to raise rates again, however, this time the Fed will make the decision on its own accord with no pressure either from markets or from its own prior signals to push ahead with an increase.

New Zealand GDP data: Wednesday, 21:45. New Zealand economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter, jumping 1.1% amid strong consumer spending and construction activity. The reading beat analysts’ forecast of a 0.8% gain. This was the fifth straight quarter of growth at 0.7 percent or more. The annual pace reached 3.5%, fueled by robust population growth of 2.1%. Manufacturing grew 1.2% in the quarter and tourism exports and retail trade and accommodation services were boosted by a surge of tourists. The service sector, which makes up 70% of the economy, expanded 1.1% in the quarter. However, the participation rate declined slightly from 64.7% to 64.6%. Economists expect a growth rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2016.

Japan rate decision: Thursday. The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates at minus 0.1% and the 10-year government bond yield to around zero%. The Central bank raised its growth projections for the fiscal year beginning in April to 1.5% from 1.3% in the previous month due to positive expectations for exports. Projections for growth in 2018 have also increased. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reassured reporters saying U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist policy will boost growth in the US and around the world. Kuroda also said the 2% inflation target may take longer to achieve.

UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England maintained its benchmark rate at 0.25% and voted to continue its quantitative easing measures. The Central bank raised its forecasts for the UK economy, increasing the odds for a rate hike rather than a rate cut. The bank predicts the economy will grow 2% this year and the unemployment would be much lower than previously projected.  Growth has remained resilient since the Brexit vote and policymakers expect growth to continue in the coming months.

US Building Permits: Thursday, 12:30. The number of building permits surged 4.6% in January to a rate of 1.29 million units, the highest level since November 2015 indicating the housing market will increase its activity in the coming months. Economists had forecast permits would remain at 1.23 million units. This positive data together with the tight labor market shows the economy continues to improve. The number of building permits is expected to reach1.26 million this time.

US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. Philly Fed’s manufacturing activity survey exceeded expectations registering 43.3 for February, way above economists’ expectations of 18.5, jumping higher up from the 23.6 reading in January. This is the highest reading for the index since 1984 and the largest gap between the reading and expectations since 1998. The current new orders index increased 12 points this month.  The exports index increased 8 points. Other broad indicators also corroborate growth. Manufacturing activity in the Philly area is expected to reach 30.2 in March.

US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased from a 44-year low to 243,000 in the week ended March. However despite the 20,000 rise the reading still remained at a healthy labor market conditions.  Economists expected claims to reach 239,000 for the week. The four-week moving average of claims fell by 2,250 to 236,500. The positive reading shows the labor market is near full employment and is ready for another rate hike. The number of jobless claims is expected to rise to 245,000.

US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. Consumer confidence declined in February to a three-month low of 95.7 from 98.5 in January, down from a 13-year high, amid milder expectations on finances and the economy. The results reflected clear differences between Republicans and Democrats following the election of Donald Trump as president. Republicans registered sentiment about 40 points higher than Democrats, according to the survey. The current conditions index inched down to 111.2 from a reading of 111.3 in the prior month. Future expectations six months from now decreased to a three-month low of 85.7 from 90.3. Consumer moral is expected to increase to 97.1 this time.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs[2]

References

^ US Nonfarm payrolls (www.forexcrunch.com)

^ Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs (www.forexcrunch.com)

from Forex Crunch http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ForexCrunch/~3/LPUNzJ170zc/

[skrisiloff]

Tax reform could transform the economy

Each week we read dozens of transcripts from earnings calls and presentations as part of our investment process. Below is a weekly post which contains some of the most important quotes about the economy and industry trends from those transcripts. Click here to receive these posts weekly via email.

Earnings season really kicks off next week, but there were a few companies that reported this week that had interesting things to say. We also reached back into last week for some calls that we missed while we were on hiatus.

Overall optimism about the economy is running high. Corporations and the stock market are especially excited about the prospect of lower corporate taxes. However, not as many people are focused on the other side of tax reform. House Republicans have proposed a “border adjustment” tax as part of their tax plan. The border adjustment tax would prevent companies from deducting foreign COGS from their taxes. If it passes it could be a major paradigm shift for the current structure of the economy and redesign the global supply chain. However, it could take some time before tax reform is addressed. Obamacare is apparently up first.

The Macro Outlook:

Companies are excited about tax reform

“I could spend all day on tax reform. Maybe I’ll hit two of the things that obviously we find very, very positive in terms of some the items being proposed now…the lowering of the corporate tax rate would be a good thing…And then the other one is obviously what they’re talking about relative to overseas earnings and repatriation…For us, this is potentially a really big positive…It gives us huge capital firepower as a corporation for all of the things that we talked about, to return capital to shareholders; to do strategic business development; to invest in our business. It’s a huge potential positive for us.” —Pfizer CFO Frank D’Amelio (Pharma)

All things equal, lower taxes mean higher valuations

“I hope everyone walks away and has the same concept that we do that lower taxes are definitely a good thing in relation to our company and the valuation of our company. The base concept that a…lower tax rates drive higher future net income and enhance cash flows is a very solid concept and should lead to an increase in value.” —KB Home CEO Jeff Mezger (Homebuilder)

But there are going to be other taxes too

“You want to move your plant and you think, as an example, you’re going to build that plant in Mexico and you’re going to make your air conditioners or your cars or whatever you’re making, and you’re going to sell it through what will be a very, very strong border — not a weak border like it is — we don’t even have a border. It’s an open sieve. But you’re going to sell through a very strong border — not going to happen. You’re going to pay a very large border tax. ” —President Elect Donald Trump (Government)

Republicans have already proposed a “border adjustment” tax

“One specific aspect of a proposed Republican tax reform plan called border adjustability could potentially disallow a deduction for foreign sourced COGS or cost of goods sold…we are told that other companies that should be concerned about this are just waking up to the whole matter” —Constellation Brands CEO Robert Sands (Beverage)

This would be a major change

“this sort of tax reform really isn’t about just setting up back office accounting departments to manage the new tax code. This kind of tax reform would require a time horizon that would allow companies to change their entire supply chain.” —Constellation Brands CFO David Klein (Beverage)

A huge percentage of many companies’ COGS are foreign sourced

“right now our U.S. based component of our beer COGS, inclusive of freight, is about 40%. I mean 60% of the COGS is from Mexico.” –Constellation Brands CEO Robert Sands (Beverage)

“about 12% to 15% of our cost of goods sold comes directly from outside the U.S. And we believe that…U.S. purchases that are actually foreign sourced it’s roughly about 40%.” –MSC Industrial CFO Rustom Jilla (Industrial Distributor)

You could turn the whole supply chain on its head

“Some of the things being talked about are pretty exciting in terms of the combination of tax and incentives for exports. So you could just turn the whole supply chain around and it could be a big win for some companies that have experienced in international trade.” —Greenbrier Companies CEO Bill Furman (Railcars)

Ultimately it’s too early to say what the tax system will look like

“In any case we will not have a new tax system tomorrow morning, it will take months and we will have time to see how this will shape over time…now it’s too early to distract how people – to do things, which should probably will never happen before the end, the mixture will be completely different.” —Walgreens Boots Alliance CEO Stefano Pessina (Pharmacy)

Obamacare is probably going to be prioritized over tax reform anyways

“I mean it’s probably a year off at best…We can only tell you what our legislators have been telling us, right. But the first thing that’s going to happen in Congress, which you are seeing right now is Obamacare…So Congress has a lot on its plate right now. And to work through all of the details and get [tax] legislation like that passed, well, Congress is telling us it’s going to be a while in any event. And it is clear cut and again this is literally what we have been told by the leaders that Obamacare is the first thing on their plate…And that’s going to take a while.” —Constellation Brands CEO Robert Sands (Beverage)

Meanwhile the industrial economy continues to stabilize

“the environment…is showing potential signs of stabilizing. We’ve also seen increased optimism from our customers over the past couple of months” —MSC Industrial CEO Erik Gershwind (Industrial Distributor)

“I think since the election, there is a lot more activity in positioning by major customers who might have been on the sidelines” —Greenbrier Companies CEO Bill Furman (Railcars)

The improvement is broad based and a long time coming

“It has been at least three years since we’ve seen anything resembling this…This stabilization has been pretty broad…machine and equipment folks, primary metals, metal fabrication. All of those are seeing an improvement over the last couple of months. I think some of that is driven by oil and gas” —MSC Industrial CEO Erik Gershwind (Industrial Distributor)

Trump wants to create jobs

“We’re going to create jobs. I said that I will be the greatest jobs producer that God ever created. And I mean that, I really — I’m going to work very hard on that. We need certain amounts of other things, including a little bit of luck, but I think we’re going to do a real job. And I’m very proud of what we’ve done.” —President Elect Donald Trump (Government)

But labor markets have tightened

“One of the major issues in America will be the labor pool. If we create more jobs in America where will the labor come from, because many factories in America today are having trouble filling slots for workers.” —Greenbrier Companies CEO Bill Furman (Railcars)

Tight labor markets are a precursor to inflation

“The industry continues to face cost pressures due to a shortage of labor within a subcontractor base. For 2016, our cost to build increased about 4.8% versus the prior year, roughly $5,000 per house. And we were able to cover most of these cost increases with higher prices” —KB Home CEO Jeff Mezger (Homebuilder)

International:

Rex Tillerson sees China as sometimes a friend, sometimes and adversary

“China’s economic and trade practices haven’t always followed commitments to global agreements. It steals our intellectual property and is aggressive and expansionist in the digital realm….China has proven a willingness to act with abandon in the pursuit of its own goals which at times put it in conflict with American interests…but we need to see the positive dimensions in our relationship with China as well. The economic well being of the two nations is deeply intertwined…We should not let disagreements over other issues exclude areas for productive partnership” —Secretary of State Nominee Rex Tillerson (Government)

British consumers are feeling fine about themselves, but down about the economy

“The consumer Brexit I think I’ve said over the last quarter has been sort of fairly stable at the top level. It’s bubbling around, consumers have actually felt quite good about themselves. But what I think is interesting, I think GfK highlighted this, is that what happened during the course of November and December was consumer confidence in the forward-looking economy came down substantially. And I think that there is this discrepancy in how they feel about themselves versus the economy and we’re not sure how that’s going to mature, but you will expect that much to mature over the next quarter.” —Marks and Spencer CEO Steve Rowe (UK Retail)

Financials:

Higher interest rates have not affected real estate markets yet

“Rates did pick up in November, they’ve kind of paused right now from that initial 50 basis point. And I heard some anecdotes about buyers moving to lock quickly that hadn’t locked. I’ve heard one story of a buyer who purchased now because of concerns that rates would go up. But in terms of our overall backlog…we really haven’t seen or heard anything yet on the rates having an impact yet.” —KB Home CEO Jeff Mezger (Homebuilder)

Consumer:

E-commerce customers tend to be more loyal

“Yes, our experience so far with our e-commerce customers is that they buy more, they have bigger baskets and they shop more often…and they also skew higher on our private label assortment that it really goes to the loyalty of that shopper.” —Supervalu CFO/CEO (Grocery Store)

Technology:

Monsanto hopes to have gene edited (CRISPR) products by the middle of the next decade

“So, I think first of all as you recognize there is a variety of gene editing tools. There is protein base. There is nucleic acid base. And just in the last few weeks, there has been a couple of publications on two brand new gene editing systems that have been discovered. In any case, what these tools allow you to do is to go in and precisely change basically any base pair or any gene in the crop. And so there are very powerful tool for making precise changes…I think they will allow us to further accelerate that rate of gain…we are now fully utilizing these tools and certainly by the beginning or middle of the next decade we will see these gene-editing products work their way into the marketplace. Really an exciting technology” —Monsanto CTO Robb Fraley (Agriculture)

Healthcare:

Trump singled out the Pharma industry in his press conference

“We’ve got to get our drug industry back. Our drug industry has been disastrous. They’re leaving left and right. They supply our drugs, but they don’t make them here, to a large extent. And the other thing we have to do is create new bidding procedures for the drug industry because they’re getting away with murder. Pharma, pharma has a lot of lobbies and a lot of lobbyists and a lot of power and there’s very little bidding on drugs. We’re the largest buyer of drugs in the world and yet we don’t bid properly and we’re going to start bidding and we’re going to save billions of dollars over a period of time.” —President Elect Donald Trump (Government)

But there’s no need to panic

“probably the outcome will be quite rational and at that time we will be able to organize ourselves and prepare our business to respond to the new environment. We don’t have to be taken by panic, just because the rules, mainly rules – the rules are changed. We have to wait for the changes and after rationally we will decide how to react without panicking.” —Walgreens Boots Alliance CEO Stefano Pessina (Pharmacy)

Pfizer’s CFO argues that our drug spending isn’t that out of step with other countries

” we don’t anticipate any major changes in how we do drug pricing…if you look at healthcare as a percentage of GDP, in the U.S. it’s about 17%. Of that 17%, about 2% is prescription drugs. If you compare that to the OECD countries, healthcare as a percentage of their GDP is about 6% to 7%, 1.5% of that is prescription drugs. There is not some big disconnect or big difference between what we spend on prescription drugs as a percentage of…GDP and what the OECD countries do.” —Pfizer CFO Frank D’Amelio (Pharma)

Industrials:

GM expects auto sales to plateau here

“we expect to see another strong year in 2017 from a US industry perspective. We had another record year in 2016. We think we are going to plateau at these kinds of strong levels. I think the fundamental drivers of what’s been driving the industry may change a little bit from a kind of credit driven tailwind into more of economic growth GDP type growth tailwind over the next number of years. Is there upside to the industry? Perhaps” —GM CFO Chuck Stevens (Automobiles)

Full transcripts can be found at www.seekingalpha.com

[dorothydelgadillo]

3 Reasons Sales Professionals Are Stressed Out & How to Fight Back

Changing business landscape. New technologies. Complex buying processes. Ever-rising goals. The list goes on and on.

It’s all too easy to let your job as a sales professional define who you are. One bad day or missed quota can influence your attitude and outlook towards all other aspects of your life -- but it doesn’t have to.

Yes, that’s a lot easier said than done, but just like anything in sales, it takes consistent effort and practice.

The first step is acknowledging there’s no quick fix to fighting anxiety and stress.

You need a long-term plan for improving the way you process and move forward from difficult circumstances in general and day-to-day sales pressure in specific.

We’ve outlined three common stress triggers salespeople experience on a daily basis and identified what you can do to manage these triggers more effectively in order to minimize your overall stress and anxiety towards your job.

So, what’s stressing salespeople out?

Reason #1: Prospecting

One of the main stress triggers of being in sales comes from a lack of leads and the pressure to continually find new prospects to fill your pipeline.

In fact, more than 40% of salespeople say prospecting is the most challenging part of the sales process, followed by closing (36%) and qualifying (22%) (HubSpot).

How can you manage it?

Leverage Your Digital Media Skills

Social Selling

Most salespeople still depend on cold calling or emailing despite its ineffectiveness in today’s information-rich economy where decision makers can build a virtual wall around themselves with technology.

Relying on only this approach is a set up for let down and failure.

When you’re unable to reach the person you want, or you’re able to connect but quickly get rejected, it’s easy to become frustrated and overwhelmed.

Instead of fighting an uphill battle, make it easier for yourself by leveraging the power of social selling.

Social sellers attract 45% more opportunities than their peers, are 51% more likely to achieve quotas, and outsell their non-social counterparts 78% of the time. (LinkedIn)

Bottom line: Sales reps sell more by using social media.

TRY THIS:

Provide value and build your credibility by sharing relevant content on social media.

This could be content you create or content created by someone else. The key here is to add your own voice and perspective to what you’re sharing.

Why do you think it’s important to your audience? What should they take away from the content?

Social selling is about building a connection with your audience before they buy your product or service.

It’s about providing resources that let prospects and customers know they can come to you not only for information about your product but also for information on industry trends and general education.

Sales and Marketing Automation

Mitigating stress requires one of two things: less pressure or more resources. Those resources might be mentors, education, or tools to help alleviate busy work.

Automation software and tools in particular can save you huge amounts of time (thereby relieving some stress) and also elevate the nature of your work so that you're more engaged.

Sales automation software takes the manual, time-consuming tasks you do on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis and automates them.

Automation drives a 14.5% increase in sales productivity, according to a study from Nucleus Research and this isn’t at the cost of increased resources, but in fact the opposite – the same report also found that companies using automation enjoyed an average 12.2% reduction in marketing overheads.

Bottom Line: Sales and marketing automation increases your efficiency, improves accuracy, and accelerates your sales process.

TRY THIS:

LinkedIn Sales Navigator automates sales prospecting by sifting through leads on LinkedIn and identifying relevant prospects.

It provides the Lead Builder, an advanced search box that lets you filter LinkedIn users by company, job title, industry, seniority, years of experience, location and more.

You can also choose to get email alerts every day, week, or month. You’ll then receive a prequalified list of prospects on a recurring basis without lifting a finger.

This allows you hone in on prospects very quickly and prioritize where to invest research and calls.

Reason #2: Time

Selling is a busy job.

You’re constantly juggling activities like finding leads, meetings, creating proposals, and sending follow up emails.

It just never seems like there’s enough time to get everything done yet all you do is work, work, work.

Truth be told, one in two salespeople said friends and family told them they work too much and if that’s not bad enough, one in three salespeople say their job negatively impacts their personal life and admit to having no work-life balance. (HubSpot)

Sounds like a personal and professional break down waiting to happen, but since you can’t add more hours to the day, what can you do to work smarter, not harder?

Focus On Attention Management, NOT Time Management

In this recent NY Times article, author Adam Grant shares a compelling point-of-view about our relentless search for how to increase productivity by managing time more effectively.

He goes on to highlight how our obsession with this is actually part of the problem.

He argues that instead of focusing on time, we must shift our mindset to attention management.

“A better option is attention management: Prioritize the people and projects that matter, and it won’t matter how long anything takes.

Attention management is the art of focusing on getting things done for the right reasons, in the right places and at the right moments.”

We aren’t telling you to stop paying attention to how long you spend on things, but we are saying you should start thinking differently about what you work on and why.

You can adopt this approach by considering these questions:

Why are you working on this task?

You might say because I have to, but let’s put that aside for now.

Identify at least one positive reason you’re completing a task or working on a project.

If you really pay attention to why you’re excited or that one positive thing about the project and who will benefit from it, you’ll be naturally pulled into it by intrinsic motivation.

For instance, writing a sales proposal may not excite you but if you focus on the positive aspects of this activity, you’ll find it less stressful.

Perhaps the positive here is that you can put your creative thinking to work.

Where are you working on this task?

Attention management also involves noticing where you get things done.

Consider these scenarios:

Working from a loud, crowded coffee shop versus a quiet, open office space or working on a bright sun shining day versus a dark dreary day.

Which of these situations would you choose to get your work done?

Believe it or not, where your work influences the quality and quantity of your work.

In fact, a series of studies led by Julia Lee show that bad weather is good for productivity because we’re less likely to be distracted by the thought of going outside.

Reconsidering your workspace may unlock a path to more focused attention.  

When are you working on this task?

Based on strengths and weaknesses as well as likes and dislikes, we have a tendency to assign levels of interest to the activities we need to accomplish.

While some of those things you probably like doing and are good at, others you may dislike and aren’t very good at.

Pay very close attention to your interest and enthusiasm towards various tasks and arrange your schedule accordingly.

When you start with a task you find interesting, it makes completing a boring task immediately afterward that much harder.

So, if you’re trying to power through a boring task, do it after a moderately interesting one, and save your most exciting task as a reward for afterward.

It’s not about time; it’s about timing.

As you consider how to arrange your schedule to maximize sales results, stop thinking about how to manage your time to get more done and instead draw from the positive energy you will gain when you dedicate your full attention to the job at hand.

Bottom line: Practicing a more mindful, attention driven approach to your daily activities by eliminating distractions and focusing on why, where, and when you do things will help reduce stress and anxiety.

Reason #3: Results

Sales is a “what have you done for me lately” kind of job.

Your customers have an ongoing desire for innovation, new product colors and sizes, better pricing, faster service, etc. That means you have to keep producing, constantly, in order to not only succeed in your job but to keep it too.  

To add insult to injury, 77% of executive buyers claim salespeople don’t understand their issues and where they can help, and 78% claim salespeople do not have relevant examples or case studies to share with them. (Forrester Research)

How can you manage it?

A Commitment to Personal and Professional Development

One of the most important parts of your life, whether professional or personal, is to take the time to learn. To sharpen your skills and increase your knowledge.

If you do not take time out of each day to work on self-improvement, your effectiveness will slowly but surely fall of and your ability to adapt to changes will fade away.

Think about it, if you drove your car every day but never took the time to make sure the tires are properly inflated, that the oil was frequently changed, and that the scheduled maintenance was completed, how long would your car keep running?

Eventually, your car would experience a serious issue.

Your body and your mind are the same. Neglect your body, and your energy levels will suffer.

Never take "mental health breaks" or neglect to feed your mind with new ideas, thoughts, and challenges, and you'll either never keep up with the inevitable changes in your industry of burn out under the stress of the daily grind.

There are a lot of different methods for improving your performance through ongoing development and training, but here are a few simple ways to get started, examples included:

Join relevant LinkedIn Groups:

Sales Best Practices

Sales 2.0

…and the list goes on.

Go to Industry Conferences:

SiriusDecisions Sales Leadership Exchange

INBOUND

…and others

Read Sales Blogs:

HubSpot

Sales Hacker

…and more

Read Sales Books:

The Psychology of Selling by Brian Tracy

To Sell Is Human by Daniel H. Pink

…plus so many more here and here.

Live and Online Training:

LinkedIn Learning

Digital Media Training

…and more options to fit your needs.

Sales is a high-pressure job with a lot of rejection. It can lead to frustration and lack of motivation.

Education and sales training, however, gives you the opportunity to keep yourself and your sales team motivated through team-building activities and morale-boosting workshops. It encourages information sharing and meaningful discussions among the team.

Bottom line: Education and training also helps inspire new ideas and spark creativity. It helps introduce new ways of thinking about old problems, or how to apply new ideas to a unique sales opportunity or as a way to adapt your current sales process.

Sell More, Stress Less

Pressure to hit targets and deliver results all while keeping a smile on your face and your life in balance causes emotional stress even for the most cool, calm, and collected among us.

Always remember, it usually isn’t until times of difficulty or challenge that people find their inner selves and really begin to excel and succeed in life.

If you’re finding sales to be challenging right now, realize that this may be your cue to change what you’ve been doing and learn new and better ways of selling.

Stress is a major part of salespeople's lives, but it's not something the industry often talks about.

Identifying different types of stress and breaking them down into actionable items is how salespeople can stay motivated, focused, and most importantly, in a healthy state of mind.

Don’t stop here, you’re on a roll. Keep going! Get our guide for more tips and tricks of the sales trade.

from Web Developers World https://www.impactbnd.com/blog/reasons-sales-professionals-are-stressed-out

[mikebrackett]

Employment Report Madness – Market Update

March is probably one of my favorite months of the year. Baseball is right around the corner. There’s a basketball tournament everybody seems to go mad for – huge conference tournament game for my alma mater tonight, go Grizzlies – and my birthday is thrown in for good measure.

However, the month of March seemed to get off to a rather inauspicious start and it may have driven the markets just a little mad. Let’s jump in!

Headline News

New Home Sales

New home sales proved to be a shining beacon last week. Numbers just released for December showed that sales were up 3.7% during the month for a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 621,000. It’s worth noting that there was some volatility resulting in a net revision of 71,000 less sales when October and November were re-examined. Additionally, sales were down 2.4% from the same time a year ago.

However, the fundamentals for the actual monthly report were very strong. As mentioned previously, sales were up, but so were prices, which rose 5% to a median of $318,600. Again, this is down 7.2% from the same time in 2017, but the way this report has been trending, it’s a win.

Supply was up 3% to 344,000 units. However, homes were selling faster to end the year than they could be replaced as supply relative to sales fell from 6.7 months to 6.6 months.

Regionally, sales were up 1.4% in the West in December. It’s a region that builders have been focused on. Sales in the area are still down 24% annually. Meanwhile, sales were also quite strong in the Northeast and South, which helped make up for a not so great month in the Midwest.

MBA Mortgage Applications

Mortgage applications seem to be a little bit rate sensitive at this point. The average rate on a 30-year fixed conforming mortgage was up two basis points according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

That said, there were other indicators that it could be a strong spring buying season. The average loan size for purchase applications moved up to a record high, suggesting that current homeowners are looking to upgrade.

Applications were down 2.5% overall last week, with a 3% dip in applications to purchase and a 2% downturn in refinance applications. People looking to refinance now only make up 40% of the mortgage market.

International Trade

International trade data for December was finally released, and there are those that probably wish it hadn’t been. The trade deficit in the U.S. ballooned by $9.5 billion to $59.8 billion.

Let’s start with exports, which were down 1.9% to come in at $205.1 billion. Food exports fell to $9.6 billion, which are the lowest they’ve been since August 2010. Analysts think it’s likely that China cut back on purchasing U.S. foods as a result of the ongoing tariff tensions. While exports of services were unchanged at $69.5 billion, the goods deficit continues to deepen. Here, the U.S. exported just $12.3 billion with cars, which is the lowest since September 2017 in just one example.

It wasn’t good on the import site either, coming in at a record $12.6 billion. Imports of services were also up 1% to $47.7 billion. Meanwhile, imports of cars were also up to a record high of $32.1 billion.

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims were down 3,000 last week to come in at 223,000. This brought the 4-week average down by the same amount at 226,250.

On the continuing claims side, these were down 50,000 to 1.755 million. However, this was a bit mixed as the 4-week average was up 4,750 to come in at about 1.767 million, which is 15,000 higher than where it was at the end of January.

Employment Situation

After being up 311,000 in January, 20,000 additional jobs added for February seems like a dud, but January may have been an extreme case in terms of added jobs and there are some strong numbers under the headline.

Let’s get the bad parts out of the way. There were 25,000 jobs added to private sector payrolls, meaning the government actually cut 5,000 jobs. There were 31,000 jobs cut in construction while retailers slashed 6,000 jobs. One point of strength was the professional and business services sector where 42,000 positions were added.

In better news, some of the lack of job gains may be due to the fact that most people have them. The unemployment rate fell 0.2% to 3.8% while labor force participation stayed steady at 63.2%. While employees worked six less  minutes on average than last month at 34.4 hours, they made more money. Wages were up 0.4% on the month and average hourly earnings for the year have risen 3.4%.

While this isn’t the greatest performance, there’s some thought that this report was also heavily impacted by the government shutdown.

Housing Starts

Housing starts were up 18.6% in January to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 1.23 million after falling quite a bit in December in a result widely blamed on wildfires in California.

There was a 25% uptick in starts of single-family homes, a metric that’s very closely watched because it represents the majority of residential home buying. However, condo sales were also up 2.4% overall.

Permits were also up 1.4% overall to 1.345 million on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The gain was attributed to strength in the North and Midwest, as permits in the South were down 3.5%, with the West falling a steep 9% on the month.

Mortgage Rates

We’ve been saying it couldn’t last forever, but the trend toward lower mortgage rates broke last week as both stocks and bonds took a bit of a pounding. However, relative to the same time a year ago, fixed rates particularly are still in really good shape. If you’re in the market, it’s a really good time to lock your mortgage rate if you haven’t already.

According to Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage with 0.5 points paid in fees rose 6 basis points last week to settle at 4.41%. This is still down from 4.46% last year at this time.

Taking a look at shorter terms, the average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage with 0.4 points also rose 6 basis points to come in at 3.83%, down from 3.94% a year ago.

Finally, the average rate for a 5-year treasury-indexed, hybrid adjustable rate mortgage with 0.3 points rose 3 basis points to 3.87%. This has risen from 3.63% last year.

Stock Market

The stock market wasn’t impressed by weak jobs numbers and posted its fifth consecutive day of losses on Friday. Each index had its worst week of 2019.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 22.99 points Friday to close at 25,450.24. This was down 2.21% on the week. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 2,743.07, falling 2.16% for the week after dropping 5.86 points on the day. Lastly, the Nasdaq was down 2.46% on the week after falling 13.32 points on the day to close at 7,408.14.

The Week Ahead

Monday, March 11

Retail Sales (8:30 a.m. ET) – Retail sales measure total receipts from stores selling merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are measured by retail and food service stores. Data is collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Tuesday, March 12

Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 a.m. ET) – The consumer price index measures changes based on the price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI) (10:00 a.m. ET) – Quicken Loans releases data every month comparing what people think their homes are worth to appraisals. Similar opinions of value often make for smoother purchase and refinance transactions.

Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI) (10:00 a.m. ET) – Quicken Loans also releases data on home values at both the national and regional levels. Homeowners can gain a perception of whether values are increasing or decreasing and get a better idea of where they stand in terms of equity.

Wednesday, March 13

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 a.m. ET) – The mortgage applications index measures applications to mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.

Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET) – These are based on new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory goods.

Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 a.m. ET) – The Producer Price Index measures the average change over time in prices received by domestic producers for the sale of goods and services.

Thursday, March 14

Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET) – New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing trend suggests a deteriorating labor market. The 4-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

New Home Sales (10:00 a.m. ET) – This report measures the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. This will be the report for January.

Friday, March 15

Industrial Production (9:15 a.m. ET) – The Federal Reserve’s monthly index of industrial production – and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates – covers manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities.

Consumer Sentiment (10:00 a.m. ET) – The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending.

There are a couple of major reports on inflation next week and we’ll keep an eye on industrial production as well.

An understanding of the movement of the markets and mortgage rates can be important, particularly if you’re in the market. However, it’s not the most scintillating reading. We’ve got plenty more home, money and lifestyle content to pique your interest if you subscribe to the Zing Blog below. This Sunday is St. Patrick’s Day. Check out our own Miranda Crace’s recipe for Guinness chocolate cupcakes. Have a great week!

The post Employment Report Madness – Market Update appeared first on ZING Blog by Quicken Loans.

from Updates About Loans https://www.quickenloans.com/blog/employment-report-madness-market-update

[aaltjebarisca]

Employment Report Madness – Market Update

March is probably one of my favorite months of the year. Baseball is right around the corner. There’s a basketball tournament everybody seems to go mad for – huge conference tournament game for my alma mater tonight, go Grizzlies – and my birthday is thrown in for good measure.

However, the month of March seemed to get off to a rather inauspicious start and it may have driven the markets just a little mad. Let’s jump in!

Headline News

New Home Sales

New home sales proved to be a shining beacon last week. Numbers just released for December showed that sales were up 3.7% during the month for a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 621,000. It’s worth noting that there was some volatility resulting in a net revision of 71,000 less sales when October and November were re-examined. Additionally, sales were down 2.4% from the same time a year ago.

However, the fundamentals for the actual monthly report were very strong. As mentioned previously, sales were up, but so were prices, which rose 5% to a median of $318,600. Again, this is down 7.2% from the same time in 2017, but the way this report has been trending, it’s a win.

Supply was up 3% to 344,000 units. However, homes were selling faster to end the year than they could be replaced as supply relative to sales fell from 6.7 months to 6.6 months.

Regionally, sales were up 1.4% in the West in December. It’s a region that builders have been focused on. Sales in the area are still down 24% annually. Meanwhile, sales were also quite strong in the Northeast and South, which helped make up for a not so great month in the Midwest.

MBA Mortgage Applications

Mortgage applications seem to be a little bit rate sensitive at this point. The average rate on a 30-year fixed conforming mortgage was up two basis points according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

That said, there were other indicators that it could be a strong spring buying season. The average loan size for purchase applications moved up to a record high, suggesting that current homeowners are looking to upgrade.

Applications were down 2.5% overall last week, with a 3% dip in applications to purchase and a 2% downturn in refinance applications. People looking to refinance now only make up 40% of the mortgage market.

International Trade

International trade data for December was finally released, and there are those that probably wish it hadn’t been. The trade deficit in the U.S. ballooned by $9.5 billion to $59.8 billion.

Let’s start with exports, which were down 1.9% to come in at $205.1 billion. Food exports fell to $9.6 billion, which are the lowest they’ve been since August 2010. Analysts think it’s likely that China cut back on purchasing U.S. foods as a result of the ongoing tariff tensions. While exports of services were unchanged at $69.5 billion, the goods deficit continues to deepen. Here, the U.S. exported just $12.3 billion with cars, which is the lowest since September 2017 in just one example.

It wasn’t good on the import site either, coming in at a record $12.6 billion. Imports of services were also up 1% to $47.7 billion. Meanwhile, imports of cars were also up to a record high of $32.1 billion.

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims were down 3,000 last week to come in at 223,000. This brought the 4-week average down by the same amount at 226,250.

On the continuing claims side, these were down 50,000 to 1.755 million. However, this was a bit mixed as the 4-week average was up 4,750 to come in at about 1.767 million, which is 15,000 higher than where it was at the end of January.

Employment Situation

After being up 311,000 in January, 20,000 additional jobs added for February seems like a dud, but January may have been an extreme case in terms of added jobs and there are some strong numbers under the headline.

Let’s get the bad parts out of the way. There were 25,000 jobs added to private sector payrolls, meaning the government actually cut 5,000 jobs. There were 31,000 jobs cut in construction while retailers slashed 6,000 jobs. One point of strength was the professional and business services sector where 42,000 positions were added.

In better news, some of the lack of job gains may be due to the fact that most people have them. The unemployment rate fell 0.2% to 3.8% while labor force participation stayed steady at 63.2%. While employees worked six less  minutes on average than last month at 34.4 hours, they made more money. Wages were up 0.4% on the month and average hourly earnings for the year have risen 3.4%.

While this isn’t the greatest performance, there’s some thought that this report was also heavily impacted by the government shutdown.

Housing Starts

Housing starts were up 18.6% in January to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 1.23 million after falling quite a bit in December in a result widely blamed on wildfires in California.

There was a 25% uptick in starts of single-family homes, a metric that’s very closely watched because it represents the majority of residential home buying. However, condo sales were also up 2.4% overall.

Permits were also up 1.4% overall to 1.345 million on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The gain was attributed to strength in the North and Midwest, as permits in the South were down 3.5%, with the West falling a steep 9% on the month.

Mortgage Rates

We’ve been saying it couldn’t last forever, but the trend toward lower mortgage rates broke last week as both stocks and bonds took a bit of a pounding. However, relative to the same time a year ago, fixed rates particularly are still in really good shape. If you’re in the market, it’s a really good time to lock your mortgage rate if you haven’t already.

According to Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage with 0.5 points paid in fees rose 6 basis points last week to settle at 4.41%. This is still down from 4.46% last year at this time.

Taking a look at shorter terms, the average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage with 0.4 points also rose 6 basis points to come in at 3.83%, down from 3.94% a year ago.

Finally, the average rate for a 5-year treasury-indexed, hybrid adjustable rate mortgage with 0.3 points rose 3 basis points to 3.87%. This has risen from 3.63% last year.

Stock Market

The stock market wasn’t impressed by weak jobs numbers and posted its fifth consecutive day of losses on Friday. Each index had its worst week of 2019.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 22.99 points Friday to close at 25,450.24. This was down 2.21% on the week. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 2,743.07, falling 2.16% for the week after dropping 5.86 points on the day. Lastly, the Nasdaq was down 2.46% on the week after falling 13.32 points on the day to close at 7,408.14.

The Week Ahead

Monday, March 11

Retail Sales (8:30 a.m. ET) – Retail sales measure total receipts from stores selling merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are measured by retail and food service stores. Data is collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Tuesday, March 12

Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 a.m. ET) – The consumer price index measures changes based on the price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI) (10:00 a.m. ET) – Quicken Loans releases data every month comparing what people think their homes are worth to appraisals. Similar opinions of value often make for smoother purchase and refinance transactions.

Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI) (10:00 a.m. ET) – Quicken Loans also releases data on home values at both the national and regional levels. Homeowners can gain a perception of whether values are increasing or decreasing and get a better idea of where they stand in terms of equity.

Wednesday, March 13

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 a.m. ET) – The mortgage applications index measures applications to mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.

Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET) – These are based on new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory goods.

Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 a.m. ET) – The Producer Price Index measures the average change over time in prices received by domestic producers for the sale of goods and services.

Thursday, March 14

Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET) – New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing trend suggests a deteriorating labor market. The 4-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

New Home Sales (10:00 a.m. ET) – This report measures the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. This will be the report for January.

Friday, March 15

Industrial Production (9:15 a.m. ET) – The Federal Reserve’s monthly index of industrial production – and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates – covers manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities.

Consumer Sentiment (10:00 a.m. ET) – The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending.

There are a couple of major reports on inflation next week and we’ll keep an eye on industrial production as well.

An understanding of the movement of the markets and mortgage rates can be important, particularly if you’re in the market. However, it’s not the most scintillating reading. We’ve got plenty more home, money and lifestyle content to pique your interest if you subscribe to the Zing Blog below. This Sunday is St. Patrick’s Day. Check out our own Miranda Crace’s recipe for Guinness chocolate cupcakes. Have a great week!

The post Employment Report Madness – Market Update appeared first on ZING Blog by Quicken Loans.

from Updates About Loans https://www.quickenloans.com/blog/employment-report-madness-market-update

[aaronsniderus]

Employment Report Madness – Market Update

March is probably one of my favorite months of the year. Baseball is right around the corner. There’s a basketball tournament everybody seems to go mad for – huge conference tournament game for my alma mater tonight, go Grizzlies – and my birthday is thrown in for good measure.

However, the month of March seemed to get off to a rather inauspicious start and it may have driven the markets just a little mad. Let’s jump in!

Headline News

New Home Sales

New home sales proved to be a shining beacon last week. Numbers just released for December showed that sales were up 3.7% during the month for a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 621,000. It’s worth noting that there was some volatility resulting in a net revision of 71,000 less sales when October and November were re-examined. Additionally, sales were down 2.4% from the same time a year ago.

However, the fundamentals for the actual monthly report were very strong. As mentioned previously, sales were up, but so were prices, which rose 5% to a median of $318,600. Again, this is down 7.2% from the same time in 2017, but the way this report has been trending, it’s a win.

Supply was up 3% to 344,000 units. However, homes were selling faster to end the year than they could be replaced as supply relative to sales fell from 6.7 months to 6.6 months.

Regionally, sales were up 1.4% in the West in December. It’s a region that builders have been focused on. Sales in the area are still down 24% annually. Meanwhile, sales were also quite strong in the Northeast and South, which helped make up for a not so great month in the Midwest.

MBA Mortgage Applications

Mortgage applications seem to be a little bit rate sensitive at this point. The average rate on a 30-year fixed conforming mortgage was up two basis points according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

That said, there were other indicators that it could be a strong spring buying season. The average loan size for purchase applications moved up to a record high, suggesting that current homeowners are looking to upgrade.

Applications were down 2.5% overall last week, with a 3% dip in applications to purchase and a 2% downturn in refinance applications. People looking to refinance now only make up 40% of the mortgage market.

International Trade

International trade data for December was finally released, and there are those that probably wish it hadn’t been. The trade deficit in the U.S. ballooned by $9.5 billion to $59.8 billion.

Let’s start with exports, which were down 1.9% to come in at $205.1 billion. Food exports fell to $9.6 billion, which are the lowest they’ve been since August 2010. Analysts think it’s likely that China cut back on purchasing U.S. foods as a result of the ongoing tariff tensions. While exports of services were unchanged at $69.5 billion, the goods deficit continues to deepen. Here, the U.S. exported just $12.3 billion with cars, which is the lowest since September 2017 in just one example.

It wasn’t good on the import site either, coming in at a record $12.6 billion. Imports of services were also up 1% to $47.7 billion. Meanwhile, imports of cars were also up to a record high of $32.1 billion.

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims were down 3,000 last week to come in at 223,000. This brought the 4-week average down by the same amount at 226,250.

On the continuing claims side, these were down 50,000 to 1.755 million. However, this was a bit mixed as the 4-week average was up 4,750 to come in at about 1.767 million, which is 15,000 higher than where it was at the end of January.

Employment Situation

After being up 311,000 in January, 20,000 additional jobs added for February seems like a dud, but January may have been an extreme case in terms of added jobs and there are some strong numbers under the headline.

Let’s get the bad parts out of the way. There were 25,000 jobs added to private sector payrolls, meaning the government actually cut 5,000 jobs. There were 31,000 jobs cut in construction while retailers slashed 6,000 jobs. One point of strength was the professional and business services sector where 42,000 positions were added.

In better news, some of the lack of job gains may be due to the fact that most people have them. The unemployment rate fell 0.2% to 3.8% while labor force participation stayed steady at 63.2%. While employees worked six less  minutes on average than last month at 34.4 hours, they made more money. Wages were up 0.4% on the month and average hourly earnings for the year have risen 3.4%.

While this isn’t the greatest performance, there’s some thought that this report was also heavily impacted by the government shutdown.

Housing Starts

Housing starts were up 18.6% in January to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 1.23 million after falling quite a bit in December in a result widely blamed on wildfires in California.

There was a 25% uptick in starts of single-family homes, a metric that’s very closely watched because it represents the majority of residential home buying. However, condo sales were also up 2.4% overall.

Permits were also up 1.4% overall to 1.345 million on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The gain was attributed to strength in the North and Midwest, as permits in the South were down 3.5%, with the West falling a steep 9% on the month.

Mortgage Rates

We’ve been saying it couldn’t last forever, but the trend toward lower mortgage rates broke last week as both stocks and bonds took a bit of a pounding. However, relative to the same time a year ago, fixed rates particularly are still in really good shape. If you’re in the market, it’s a really good time to lock your mortgage rate if you haven’t already.

According to Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage with 0.5 points paid in fees rose 6 basis points last week to settle at 4.41%. This is still down from 4.46% last year at this time.

Taking a look at shorter terms, the average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage with 0.4 points also rose 6 basis points to come in at 3.83%, down from 3.94% a year ago.

Finally, the average rate for a 5-year treasury-indexed, hybrid adjustable rate mortgage with 0.3 points rose 3 basis points to 3.87%. This has risen from 3.63% last year.

Stock Market

The stock market wasn’t impressed by weak jobs numbers and posted its fifth consecutive day of losses on Friday. Each index had its worst week of 2019.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 22.99 points Friday to close at 25,450.24. This was down 2.21% on the week. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 2,743.07, falling 2.16% for the week after dropping 5.86 points on the day. Lastly, the Nasdaq was down 2.46% on the week after falling 13.32 points on the day to close at 7,408.14.

The Week Ahead

Monday, March 11

Retail Sales (8:30 a.m. ET) – Retail sales measure total receipts from stores selling merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are measured by retail and food service stores. Data is collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Tuesday, March 12

Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 a.m. ET) – The consumer price index measures changes based on the price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI) (10:00 a.m. ET) – Quicken Loans releases data every month comparing what people think their homes are worth to appraisals. Similar opinions of value often make for smoother purchase and refinance transactions.

Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI) (10:00 a.m. ET) – Quicken Loans also releases data on home values at both the national and regional levels. Homeowners can gain a perception of whether values are increasing or decreasing and get a better idea of where they stand in terms of equity.

Wednesday, March 13

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 a.m. ET) – The mortgage applications index measures applications to mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.

Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET) – These are based on new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory goods.

Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 a.m. ET) – The Producer Price Index measures the average change over time in prices received by domestic producers for the sale of goods and services.

Thursday, March 14

Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET) – New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing trend suggests a deteriorating labor market. The 4-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

New Home Sales (10:00 a.m. ET) – This report measures the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. This will be the report for January.

Friday, March 15

Industrial Production (9:15 a.m. ET) – The Federal Reserve’s monthly index of industrial production – and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates – covers manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities.

Consumer Sentiment (10:00 a.m. ET) – The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending.

There are a couple of major reports on inflation next week and we’ll keep an eye on industrial production as well.

An understanding of the movement of the markets and mortgage rates can be important, particularly if you’re in the market. However, it’s not the most scintillating reading. We’ve got plenty more home, money and lifestyle content to pique your interest if you subscribe to the Zing Blog below. This Sunday is St. Patrick’s Day. Check out our own Miranda Crace’s recipe for Guinness chocolate cupcakes. Have a great week!

The post Employment Report Madness – Market Update appeared first on ZING Blog by Quicken Loans.

from Updates About Loans https://www.quickenloans.com/blog/employment-report-madness-market-update

[kevinvtague]

Panoramic Weekly: Patient Fed boosts markets

Goldilocks, one of investors’ favourite economic scenarios, seems to have returned in the new year after almost vanishing in 2018: a strong US jobs report and dovish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell have reinstated the not-too-hot, not-too-cold environment that combines relatively low rates and good-enough economic growth – supporting risk assets. US High Yield spreads, for instance, have rallied 80 basis points (bps) so far this year, after widening more than 1% in a dark December. Equities have soared.

Optimism has been mainly triggered by Powell, who said on Friday that the Fed would be patient on its rate hiking path as inflation remains muted. Markets reacted with force: expectations of a March Fed hike have now plunged to 5%, down from 41% one month ago, while inflation expectations and the dollar fell. These tailwinds favoured Emerging Markets and their currencies, which rallied also on the back of more Chinese monetary policy easing measures, and despite soft data from the world’s second-largest economy: China’s December producer and consumer inflation both came in below expectations. In Europe, disappointing German data held the euro, which remained flat against a falling dollar.

Heading up:

Cushions – credit sell-off increases margin for error: Despite the pain, at least the recent credit market sell-off has left investors with a bigger protective cushion before losing money: according to M&G fund manager Wolfgang Bauer, spreads of short-maturity, European Investment Grade corporate bonds would need to widen by 40 basis points (bps) this year before dragging investors into negative returns. This cushion, calculated as the index’s OAS/Libor spread divided by its spread duration, was below 10bps barely one year ago, a level which practically priced in perfection. As seen in the chart, the cushion has been growing as markets fell, especially following the Italian election in May, which raised fears about the future of the EU. This margin has now reached the highest level in about two years and is about four times bigger than a year ago. According to Wolfgang though, European corporate bonds are still sensitive to political volatility and to ample supply (usually a negative for bond prices). European data has also been disappointing, although economic growth is still expected to rise by 1.6% this year and by 1.5% in 2020 (down from 1.9% in 2018). Don’t miss Wolfgang’s credit review: Self-check: how did we do in our 2018 predictions?

US dollar and oil prices – perplexing the Fed: The strong correlation between oil prices and the US dollar over the past decade has surprised many investors – not least the Fed. In its recent blog “The perplexing co-movement of the dollar and oil prices,” the US central bank questions the logic behind the dollar’s weakness against the euro when oil prices rise. According to the bloggers, a 10% increase in oil prices is associated with a 1.5% depreciation of the dollar against the euro, something which not always makes sense as oil prices are often driven by Asian demand and Middle East output. Why would this affect the USD/Euro exchange rate? One explanation, the Fed argues, is that higher oil prices lower expected US output relative to Europe’s, dragging the greenback lower. This happens as Europe tends to tax gasoline more heavily, making European consumers less sensitive to petrol prices. However, the Fed admits it is hard to imagine that the levels of congestion on European roads do actually drive the USD/Euro exchange rate. The central bank leaves this issue as an open question – at the same time that oil prices are rising, and the dollar, falling.

Heading down:

US inflation expectations – Powelled: Fed chair Powell’s recent reassurance that the central bank remains data-dependent, watchful of market reactions and not blind to inflation’s failure to significantly pick up, threw a bucket of cold water over US inflation expectations. Also challenged by the recent drop in oil prices, the Fed’s favourite inflation expectations gauge – the five-year forward breakeven rate (blue line) – has plunged to 1.75%, the lowest level since June 2017. The figure is substantially below the country’s consumer inflation forecasts (dotted orange line), a mean average of multiple analysts’ quotes, currently expecting inflation to have reached 2.4% in 2018, slowing down to 2.2% in both 2019 and 2020. As seen in the chart, the increasing difference between the two magnitudes breaks a close correlation over the years: some observers say this is because analysts’ inflation forecasts are unrealistic, while others say that breakeven rates, or market expectations, are too pessimistic as the US economy is still expected to deliver economic growth of 2.6% this year and 1.9%, next. As ever, mis-pricing are what active investors look for – as long as they are right.

Germany – in recession? Ten-year German bund yields are trading again at 0.2%, having reached a 2-year low of 0.15% at the beginning of the year. This time, though, the yield drop may come for all the wrong reasons rather than because of safe-haven demand: industrial production fell for a third straight month in November, bringing the annualized figure to a negative 4.7%, the lowest since 2009, and raising concerns about Europe’s strongest economy slipping into recession. German industry has been hit, among other things, by reduced global trade and a slowdown in China – Chinese car sales fell by 6% in 2018.

from Surety Bonding Solutions https://www.bondvigilantes.com/blog/2019/01/10/panoramic-weekly-patient-fed-boosts-markets/

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: EK Fallout, Nylander’s Contract, Avs’ Crease, Tolvanen, Simmonds, & Zetterberg (Sept. 15th)

Photo Courtesy: @S7Dsn

  The Dobber Fantasy Guide has been updated after all the recent moves (apparently there was a substantial one yesterday?). It will continue to be updated throughout camps, preseason and as we move through the early portion of the year. Buy it and never look back.

  While you're at it, grab the Prospect Report as well. This is a young man's game and you can never know too much about what's coming down the pike. 

**

  Michael Clifford broke down the Karlsson to San Jose trade yesterday. I’d like to echo his sentiments that it seems nearly unfathomable that Peter DeBoer would leave Burns or Karlsson on the bench when the first power play unit steps onto the ice.

  Sure, we can look at Nashville and see how splitting Subban and Josi onto two units has been successful for the team and both players. However, with no disrespect to Roman Josi, he is not Brent Burns.

  {source}<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Possible. More likely is he becomes Ovechkin and just hammers bombs from the left circle off passes from Jumbo and EK for 2 straight minutes every PP. <a href="https://t.co/1bF4JSeg3G">https://t.co/1bF4JSeg3G</a></p>— /Cam Robinson/ (@Hockey_Robinson) <a href="https://twitter.com/Hockey_Robinson/status/1040319104215707648?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 13, 2018</a></blockquote>

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>{/source}

  Having Burns blast away from that left circle will be insane. Evander Kane might be considered the best goal scorer on the team by many, but for my money it’s Burns. Being able to receive passes into his wheelhouse from Thornton and Karlsson may lead to him flirting with 30 goals again. He almost got there (29) in 2016-17.

  My lifetime (32 years) has only seen three defenders break 30-goals. Kevin Hatcher (34 in 1992-93), Mike Green (31 in 2008-09), and Paul Coffee (30 in 1988-89).  I’d like to see another.

  I also share the viewpoint that Timo Meier is a great beneficiary of this deal. I expected him to continue to elevate his play, but his place beside Logan Couture should now be solidified. He’s a volume shooter with a high-end pedigree and a nose for finding the back of the net. Plus, now he has EK creating magic during five-on-five. Which is never a bad thing.

  For more coverage on the trade, I broke down the prospects involved on DobberProspects.

  **

  It was announced on Friday morning that Henrik Zetterberg has played his final NHL contest. We had heard the rumours that his back had prohibited him from training this offseason and he was in danger of missing significant time.

  It’s a shame that a player of his ilk was denied a farewell tour or at least a lasting standing ovation. While he didn’t hit the 500-goal or 1000-point benchmarks, his Conn Smythe Trophy, Triple Gold Club membership and King Clancy Award should be enough to send him into the Hall in the future.

  Enjoy retirement, Hank.

  **

  As training camps opened around the league, there are a handful of familiar faces missing. Elliotte Friedman reported on several restricted free agents who have yet to put pen to paper and as such are MIA from camp.

  The most fantasy-relevant being William Nylander. By the sound of it, Nylander and his camp want no part in a bridge-deal and are seeking something in the Leon Draisaitl 8-plus million dollar range.

  As Freidman mentioned, Draisaitl had accumulated 128 points in the two seasons leading up to that monster eight-year, 68 million dollar (8.5 per) deal. Nylander has racked up 122. Most can agree that Draisaitl is overpaid, but with inflation coming into play, it’s not outrageous to ask for such a number. That’s what agents are for; asking.

  We’ll see how this shakes out but I’m guessing Nylander isn’t overly interested in missing out on the offensive gravy train that's bubbling in Toronto these days.

  I’ll put my best guess at a long-term deal worth 7.5 per.

  **

  So, who gets the lion share of the starts in Colorado this season? It’s a question every poolie with a pulse has been muttering to themselves this summer. After trading for the long-time Caps’ backup, the Avalanch have put another question mark next to Varlamov’s name. The Russian netminder has refused to stay healthy and/or consistent. He’s a volatile fantasy asset that few chase.

  At this point, they probably give Varly the opening night gig if both play reasonably well in preseason. Then it’ll be all about the hot hand. If one goes on a long enough roll, they’ll build up some goodwill with the coaching staff and likely gain a longer leash.

  Graubauer is my pick to finish with more starts, but nothing is certain in the world of goaltenders – especially ones who haven’t ever been given the ball on a long-term basis.

  **

  I released my Top 315 Skater Point Projections earlier this week. It’s two bucks for the whole shebang. Cheap Cheap.

  **

  Once a multicategory darling, Wayne Simmonds’ stock has fallen significantly. 2017-18 was a down season for the 30-year-old. Normally Simmonds is a near-lock for 25-plus goals, 50-60 points, triple-digit penalty minutes and over 200 shots on goal. However, last season saw his totals drop precipitously across the spectrum.

  Five-year lows in goals (24), points (46), and shots on goal (176). His 57 penalty minutes were the lowest of his career – including the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign. A good chunk of this can be chalked up to his playing the season with a torn pelvis. That would not have been a fun challenge. He’s had the surgery and is ready to begin training camp.

  There are a few more looming questions around the Flyers winger though. The first is contractual. He’s heading in into the final season of a six-year contract that paid him 3.975 million per. That’s turned out to be a sweetheart deal for the Flyers. And it's without question that Simmonds will be looking to cash in on what is likely his last big contract.

  Second is the infusion of JVR into the lineup. The two play incredibly similar styles and there Is really only room for one net-front presence on the top power play. `Philly is paying van Riemsdyk a hefty salary and they won’t be paying him to see secondary minutes.

  So, what comes next? Well, Simmonds' value will likely plummet in drafts this year. The concerns are justifiable. It’s unlikely that he sees three-plus minutes of power play deployment on the top unit next season as per usual. However, his overall game should rebound. Expect a return to the pugilistic and hardnosed player he’s always been. Rejuvenated shot metrics and around 50 blocks.

  At his best, he was a 60-point player who needed top man-advantage deployment to contribute 30-plus percent of that production. Without the deployment, expect something in the 40-45-point range.

  The wild card is if the Flyers decide to move the asset before seeing it walk for nothing in the offseason if they’re not prepared to pay him his ask. If a contender buys him, he will see a nice uptick in value. Something to watch as the season unfolds.

  **

  A popular pick to be in the Calder contention as Rookie of the Year this season is Eeli Tolvanen. We’ve all heard about his exploits last season in the KHL. Hell, I dedicated a weekly space at the end of my DobberProspects’ Ramblings to shine a light on the bushel of goals he’d racked up over that stretch.

  However, his place in the Predators’ roster remains unclear.

  No one is going to be pushing Filip Forsberg out of the top left-wing spot. He, Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson are a package until something fundamentally stops working.

  That leaves Tolvanen to battle it out with Kevin Fiala for the right to slide in beside Kyle Turris on the second line. Turris and Fiala formed a nice secondary wave of offense in Nashville last season. They both provide the strong two-way ability that Tolvanen still lacks. Fiala has been building the long way and his 23-goals a year ago could be just the tip of the iceberg. 

  If Tolvanen is unable to secure a spot in the top six, his outlook from the third line and second power-play unit should be muted. As mentioned earlier, the Preds have enough talent to spread between two man-advantage units. The 2017 first rounder's release will be the focal point on the left circle, while Ryan Ellis’ blast will work the right side. That should be able to bump his numbers up, but expecting much more than 40 points may be asking for trouble.

  **

  That’s all for now. Feel free to follow me on Twitter @Hockey_Robinson

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-ek-fallout-nylanders-contract-avs-crease-tolvanen-simmonds-zetterberg-sept-15th/

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S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Rally Continues With Fresh Record Highs

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S&P 500 Weekly Update: The Rally Continues With Fresh Record Highs

“As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take profits.” – Jesse Livermore

When the S&P barely eked out a new high on Friday August 24th, there was some concern that there wasn’t much conviction behind the move. More doubt was in the air when some noted that the Dow 30 Industrial average had still not posted a new high.

All of that was dispelled quickly as the follow-through rally took the index to fresh new highs with every major sector participating in the move.

Lately it has been a tale of two markets, the U.S versus the rest of the world. While just about every major U.S. index is either at or right near a new high, global markets don’t look nearly as attractive.

Source: Bespoke

While U.S. stocks made higher highs and higher lows on their way to all-time highs, the MSCI World Ex US index looks quite the opposite, trending lower and close to 52-week lows.

Source: Bespoke

The only international market that is bucking that trend is India’s SENSEX where the bull market there continues to roar.

In the intermediate term, I do not see much in the way of any major change. It would be hard to envision fund managers walking away from the 20+% forecasted earnings growth here in the U.S. What could develop is a firming of international markets. That would be helpful for the global market picture, and we could see that take place as money managers now look for what they view as bargains overseas.

Chart courtesy of Urban Carmel

Money managers are curious folks and they run as a herd. Fund managers surveyed by BAML now view EM equities as their least favorite asset class. Their allocation to EM equities fell to 1% underweight this month, the lowest since January 2017, when they began to pile into what then became a huge overweight position.

The U.S. percent of world market cap has topped 40% for the first time since 2005. A factor in that major move higher for the U.S. the fact that China has fallen from 10%+ down to 7.5%, leaving China in 3rd place behind Japan.

I would remind readers that if they decide to go bottom fishing in the global markets, remember in many cases you are investing in a bear market. I would rather wait until I see a turn back into bullish mode before thinking about getting involved. China would be where I would be most interested to deploy some funds.

Going back to the U.S., it took seven months, but the S&P 500 finally took out its January 26th closing high on August 24th. At this point, the S&P is 1% above its January 26th close. During those seven months, stocks with higher valuations and no dividend yields have crushed stocks with low valuations and high dividend yields. The dollar’s rally has also impacted stock performance, with “Domestics” outperforming “Internationals.”

The next leg of the secular bull market to take the index to more all-time highs has begun.

Economy

One indicator to look at for signs of a looming recession is the leading coincident indicator ratio, which on average peaks about 2 years ahead of recession (median 2.5 years).

Source: Bespoke

Unemployment claims (4-wk avg) second lowest in 49 years. This average rises at least 7 months ahead of the next recession.

Chart courtesy of Urban Carmel; Data: Federal Reserve database.

Nothing is infallible, but the first inclination should be to follow what history tells us. While the unexpected can happen, given the recent data, that probability is very low.

Chicago Fed national activity index fell 0.35 points to 0.13 in July after climbing 0.96 points to 0.48 in June (revised from 0.43).

August Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index comes in at 63.6 vs. consensus of 63.8. Although the index remains elevated, that is a three-month low. Jamie Satchi, Economist at MNI Indicators:

“The MNI Chicago Business Barometer continues to signal solid business sentiment, despite easing for the first time in five months, with growth in output and demand holding up well.”

“Inflationary pressures look set to continue, potentially bleeding into consumer prices, with over 60% of firms reporting that they have passed on higher input costs to customers in recent months, and others foreseeing doing so in the near future.”

Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell 1.4 points to 30.9 in August following July’s 4.2 point increase to 32.3.

Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose 4 points to 24 in August after dipping 1 point to 20 in July.

The second read on the second-quarter GDP rolled in at 4.2%. The trajectory of growth is still very positive; excluding inventories from quarterly growth, this was the best quarter for GDP since Q1 of 2006.

U.S. consumer confidence pops to a new 18-year high of 133.4 in August from 127.9 (was 127.4) in July, accompanied by a surge in the current conditions index to a new 18-year high as well of 172.2 from previous 17-year highs in June and July.

Michigan Consumer sentiment fell 1.7 points to 96.2 in the final August reading, though it’s up from the 95.3 preliminary read. It follows a 0.3 point dip to 97.9 in July. It’s the lowest since the 95.7 in January.

Home prices as captured by the Case-Shiller home price indices for existing homes have slowed somewhat but are still rising at a robust 6% year-over-year range nationally.

Pending home sales dipped 0.7% to 106.2 in July, a little weaker than forecast, after bouncing 1.0% in June to 107.0 (revised from 106.9). The index has been choppy on a monthly basis, and has ranged from 104.3 (January) to 107.8 (March) so far in 2018, and hit a recent high of 113.0 in April 2016. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist:

“The housing market’s summer slowdown continued in July. Contract signings inched backward once again last month, as declines in the South and West weighed down on overall activity. It’s evident in recent months that many of the most overheated real estate markets, especially those out West, are starting to see a slight decline in home sales and slower price growth.”

“The reason sales are falling off last year’s pace is that multiple years of inadequate supply in markets with strong job growth have finally driven up home prices to a point where an increasing number of prospective buyers are unable to afford it.”

Global Economy

French GDP came in as estimated showing 0.2% growth, the same as the first quarter.

GfK consumer confidence dropped for the fourth month in the last five. Declines have been very small in magnitude, so the indicator is still relatively close to record highs.

China services PMI rose to 54.2, up from the July reading of 54. Manufacturing PMI beat expectations rising to 51.3 for August. Both remain in expansion mode.

Canadian quarterly GDP expanded at a 2.9% annual rate, the fastest pace in a year.

Earnings Observations

Final Q2 results show 9.5% year-over-year growth on revenues and 24.8% year-over-year growth on earnings. As I often comment, earnings, and direction of equity markets, carry a very high correlation.

FactSet Research weekly update on second quarter results:

With 99% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter, 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 72% have reported a positive sales surprise.

The blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 25.0%. If 25.0% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest earnings growth since Q3 2010 (34.1%).

Ten sectors have higher growth rates today (compared to June 30) due to upward estimate revisions and positive earnings surprises.

The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.8. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (16.3) and above the 10-year average (14.4).

At the sector level, the Healthcare (84%) and Information Technology (82%) sectors have the highest percentages of companies reporting revenues above estimates, while the Consumer Staples (56%) sector has the lowest percentage of companies reporting revenues above estimates.

The Political Scene

From turmoil to truce. The trade war that really wasn’t had some positive moments this past week. U.S. and Mexico reach a preliminary trade deal, paving the way to replace NAFTA. From the outset, the pessimists thought the situation was dire, and now the skeptics are poking holes in any proposed deal. Business as usual for the so-called “experts”. Funny, but I don’t think many viewed the old deal as perfect. It never solved ALL issues for ALL concerns, and any new deal won’t do that either. A reality check please.

I’ll remind everyone that the “turmoil” resided in the minds of the crowd that constantly jumps to conclusions and declares the worst possible outcome as fact. Listening to the financial media on Friday reminded me of children sitting outside trying to listen to what their parents were talking about. Then as children will often do, manufacture stories.

Negotiations are ongoing with the Eurozone and the U.K., and now Canada is ready to talk. That is not surprising, seventy five percent of Canadian exports go to the U.S. So much for the idea that the administration can’t negotiate deals on ALL fronts at the same time. Honestly, I don’t know where some people get these ideas and why most continually make wild assumptions.

Regardless of how any of this is perceived, any skepticism that continually raises all sorts of “what if” scenarios needs to be tempered. The bottom line, there IS a path to some resolution through negotiation, and that is what the stock market is looking for.

For those pundits out there that still may not “get it”. Despite the tariff noise, the S&P just closed at 2,901.

The Fed, the Yield Curve, and Inflation

This topic has been mentioned frequently over the last year, but contrary to what a lot of people believe, a flat yield curve has generally been a positive environment for equities. The table below shows the S&P 500’s performance in the one, three, six, and twelve months after each of the periods shown in the chart.

Source: Bespoke

Each period shown includes how many days had passed since the last time the yield curve was flatter than 75 basis points. At 3,870 days, the most recent streak of the yield curve being steeper than 75 basis points was the longest by far.

In terms of market performance, the results have been much better than average. One month later, the S&P 500 saw an average gain of 1.89% (median: 2.20%) with gains in all but one period. That’s over three times the S&P 500’s historical one month return of 0.62%.

The one period of declines was in 1978 when the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%. Three months later, the S&P 500 was positive five out of seven times for an above average gain of 2.76% (median: 6.02%).

Here, both periods of negative returns were in the 1970s. Six months later, the S&P 500 averaged a gain of 7% with gains five out of seven times. In four of those periods, the S&P 500 was up over 10%. One year later, the only period where the S&P 500 was down was from February 1973 through February 1974 when it declined more than 13%.

In total, however, the S&P 500’s average gain was 12.04% (median: 15.86%). That compares to an 8.25% average gain for all one year periods since 1962.

When I opened the year with my view for the markets, I noted that inflation was the number one concern among investors and financial analysts as we entered 2018. It was a highlight as we started the year, and remains in the news today as many wonder if inflationary forces will accelerate and force the Fed into action. OK, inflation is grinding higher as the economy improves and labor becomes scarcer. The other side of that story shows the major deflationary forces at work in the global economy remain very much in place.

The “Amazon economy,” growing technological advances including automation/robotics, retiring baby boomers being replaced by lower-wage millennials are all with us today. Wage inflation does not necessarily translate into broad core price inflation, which is the measure the Fed is concerned with.

Wage hikes can be funded from other sources besides raising prices. Non-inflationary sources like the newly found earnings from the Trump corporate tax cuts come to mind. Just like other issues where everyone has the same outlook, inflation just might be another. Perhaps a scary inflation spike that many are expecting won’t be here anytime soon.

So while many analysts were telling investors to get involved in the sectors that would benefit from inflation, the graphic below shows how they have performed in 2018.

Source: Bespoke

Sentiment

AAII weekly sentiment showed that some have now turned bullish with a reading of 45%, the highest level since June. Despite that gain, we still have not seen a read above 50% in quite some time. Bears dropped to 24.4% as many were run over and are no longer with us to participate in the surveys. May they R.I.P.

Crude Oil

The EIA weekly inventory report showed a draw in crude oil inventories of 2.6 million barrels versus a consensus of a 967K draw. At 405.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the five-year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week and are about 5% above the five-year average for this time of year.

The tight trading range continues as WTI closed the week at $69.88, up $1.29 for the week.

The Technical Picture

An investor could not ask for a better overall technical view. The Dow 30 Industrial Average lags as the only major index that has NOT made a new high. The Dow 30 is approximately 2% from doing just that. All of the other major indices are in sync setting new highs.

Market breadth remains strong. When the S&P recorded the new high on August 24th, every major U.S. Index and ETF was up at least 0.50% and is now up over 5% on the year. In addition, every S&P 500 sector’s cumulative A/D line hit a 52-week high that week. It simply doesn’t get any better than that.

The index has put both time and distance from the top of the trading range that contained it for six months. An indication that this move is indeed genuine.

Chart courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com

There was nothing weak about this liftoff, and the only issue now, the S&P is extended in the short term. This suggests a small pullback soon to consolidate the recent gains. It matters little, because when major indices are in sync like this, it is a sign that there are more highs ahead.

Look for initial support at 2,865, with major underlying support now at 2,800-2,810. Any pullback will be an opportunity to tweak portfolios, positioning them for further gains. It will NOT be a time to lighten up.

Market Skeptics

The continuing commentary about corporations using too much of their cash for shareholders seems to never go away. Maybe it’s all overdone.

If we look at the chart closely, we see that the ratios that are in place look quite “normal”.

Individual Stocks and Sectors

If you have been overweight Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare, you are having a good year.

Source: Bespoke

Those three sectors along with the Financials continue to see upward revisions to earnings forecasts, and they will be the place to be going forward.

If an investor isn’t impressed by the market’s ability to ignore negative news, I’m not sure what would impress them. There have been plenty of bricks in the wall of worry. The market has shrugged them off. One example, the S&P has gained around 20% since the start of the Mueller investigation. The positives of a pro-growth agenda and favorable technical factors have overwhelmed the negatives.

As the market climbs, the doomsayers become more numerous and more vocal as they conclude that the odds are in their favor now.

Nothing could be further from the truth as they continue to labor under a delusion. Instead they should be following the premise that has been cited here over and over, strength begets strength. The winning streak continued as August marked the time period where the S&P broke out of the trading range that capped the average for six months. That made it five months of gains in a row for the S&P. This is only the seventh time dating back to 1928 that the S&P 500 sees five straight monthly gains spanning April through September.

Bespoke Investment Group says when that happens, there is a high probability that the usually weak month of September is also positive. In the prior six instances, September is up as well with an average gain of 2.46% and gains five out of six times.

In the last nine instances when the S&P is up 5+% by Labor Day (like it is now), the remainder of the year was up all nine times with an average gain of 7%. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but it’s easy to see that jumping to the conclusion that stocks are about to get significantly weaker could be a mistake.

What drives stock prices is earnings momentum, not headlines. For sure the earnings momentum is very real if one cares to pay attention to it. The major indices sell for the same PE multiples as they did back in January. The 10-year Treasury bond yield forward multiple is considerably below its long-term average. For a forward-looking investor, the present market valuation is far from expensive and might even be viewed as cheap relative to bonds.

As we look ahead, there is some history that favors the bullish trend continuing. This earnings-driven secular bull market has more room to run. I continue to remind all, we take it one day, one week at a time. Right now, the evidence tells us there is little need to make any material changes to portfolios. Any pullbacks in your favorite stocks are buying opportunities.

The country lost a great American last weekend, a moment of silence for Senator John McCain.

I would also like to take a moment and remind all of the readers of an important issue. In these types of forums, readers bring a host of situations and variables to the table when visiting these articles. Therefore, it is impossible to pinpoint what may be right for each situation. Please keep that in mind when forming your investment strategy.

to all of the readers that contribute to this forum to make these articles a better experience for all.

Best of Luck to All!

Were you positioned for new market highs? The Savvy Investor Marketplace service is here to take the guesswork of what to do next. Leave the e motion to others. Drown out the noise and start profiting from what this stock market is giving investors. Savvy Investors learn how to manage their money successfully, by talking control of their investments. Please consider joining one of the most successful new ventures here on Seeking Alpha.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: My portfolios are ALL positioned to take advantage of the ongoing bull market, with NO hedges in place.

This article contains my views of the equity market and what strategy and positioning is comfortable for me. Of course, it is not suited for everyone, there are far too many variables. Hopefully it sparks ideas, adds some common sense to the intricate investing process, and makes investors feel more calm, putting them in control.

The opinions rendered here, are just that – opinions – and along with positions can change at any time.

As always I encourage readers to use common sense when it comes to managing any ideas that I decide to share with the community. Nowhere is it implied that any stock should be bought and put away until you die. Periodic reviews are mandatory to adjust to changes in the macro backdrop that will take place over time.

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What CEOs said on this week’s earnings calls

Each week we read dozens of transcripts from earnings calls and presentations as part of our investment process. Below is a weekly post which contains some of the most important quotes about the economy and industry trends from those transcripts. Click here to receive these posts weekly via email.

The first week of earnings season showed a continued abundance of optimism.  Expectations have definitely risen for the economy.  Curiously though, expectations have not risen for interest rates.  Citigroup's CEO mentioned that he only expects one rate hike per year through 2020.  Banks were prominent this week and credit quality remains strong, but CRE is an area where there appears to be a growing mismatch between risk and reward.

The Macro Outlook:

Optimism abounds

"Main Street continues to rebound. Our confidence is up. I’ve been in 23 of our 26 regions in the last few months...everyone is talking about increased optimism on the part of small- and medium-sized businesses...I’ve had 23 lunches where I’m sitting and talking to six to eight business people over the last few months. I’ve gotten this across our entire footprint...All of that is very, very positive." --BB&T CEO Kelly King (Bank)

CEOs are confident

"I would say the CEOs are confident, the conversations are happening all the time and strategic M&A in the U.S. those discussions are occurring especially in technology and consumer retail and natural resources." --Goldman Sachs CFO Martin Chavez (Investment Bank)

Consumers and investors are bullish on America

"across all the years since the crisis there has been ebbs and flows in customers’ views about where they want to invest and the cash portion of our balances has come up and down. But I think the consumer and the investor are very bullish on America and they continue investing" --Bank of America CFO Paul Donofrio (Bank)

Retail investors are highly engaged with the market

"We are seeing this quarter very broad-based engagement in the market, so everyone from brand-new customers opening their first account to very active traders seem to be engaged in the market. We saw a good activity across pretty much all of our products...So on the other end, the conundrum part is, as we said, we’re at multi-decade lows in the VIX, which tends to drive more trading activity." --TD Ameritrade CEO Tim Hockey (Broker)

Voices of warning are few and far between

"…don’t be mesmerized by the blue skies created by central bank QE and near perpetually low interest rates. All markets are increasingly at risk….Strategies involving risk reduction should ultimately outperform “faux” surefire winners generated by central bank printing of money. It’s the real economy that counts and global real economic growth is and should continue to be below par." --Janus Portfolio Manager Bill Gross (Investment Management)

Yet the expectation of low yields persists

"while markets have started to anticipate a normalization, a policy in the environment of sustained expansion, negative yields remain a reality in some countries and expectations for a continued low yield environment persists." --Blackrock CEO Larry Fink (Investment Management)

Central banks aren't very hawkish

"The incoming information confirms a continued strengthening of the economic expansion in the euro area, which has been broadening across sectors and regions…While the ongoing economic expansion provides confidence that inflation will gradually head to levels in line with our inflation aim, it has yet to translate into stronger inflation dynamics." --ECB President Mario Draghi (Central Bank)

Citigroup is only expecting four more rate hikes through 2020

"we’ve got one more rate hike for the US built in and its December of this year. And quite frankly we’re assuming one more rate hike in ’18, one more rate hike in ’19 and one more rate hike in ’20." --Citigroup CEO Miles Corbat (Bank)

A lot is still riding on a tax cut

"And can I guarantee that all the craziness in Washington will not derail that? No. But I’ll be honest with you as I’ve talked to business people out there, they’re not worried about all this craziness going on in Washington. They’re just focusing on growing their business. Now I will say I think they are expecting a tax reduction deal and, to a lesser degree, they’re counting on infrastructure. But if we get the tax reduction deal, they’ll continue" --BB&T CEO Kelly King (Bank)

International:

Emerging markets have been weak for a long time

"since the financial crises, interest rates, currencies etcetera, we’ve had a prolonged period of about eight, nine years now where we have seen significant weakening of emerging market currencies...you actually see the volume component of these emerging markets continuing to be very, very low, while historically it was all volume-driven growth. I am convinced that that is coming back now." --Unilever CEO Paul Polman (Packaged Goods)

China may be stabilizing

"China for example is actually much more stable than the last 12 to 18 months. I like what I’m seeing in China right now." --Abbott CEO Miles White (Medical Device)

Chinese are still buying international assets

"we’re still seeing the trend of Chinese buying and international assets. " --Goldman Sachs CFO Martin Chavez (Investment Bank)

Financials:

The Fed should start shrinking its balance sheet in September

"So on the balance sheet, it is still the case that we expect to start seeing normalization in the balance sheet, in September, if not in September by the end of this year with the actually calling for the next rate hike in December the market is calling for March of next year." --JP Morgan CFO Marianne Lake

No one knows how it will affect banks

"I mean the Fed has never had a balance sheet of this size. We’ve never been through a situation where they’re talking about reducing a balance sheet. We can talk about history all day long, but since we’ve never been through that, nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen." --Wells Fargo CEO Tim Sloan (Bank)

There will likely be an increase in competition for deposits

"we think as excess liquidity comes out of the market you could expect to see and you will expect to see more competition with respect to deposits, I would also expect that the long end of the curve on a relative basis would be a little bit higher" --US Bancorp CFO Terry Dolan (Bank)

Consumers may not shift deposits until rates are higher

"I think we are a couple of moves away from the Fed before you start really seeing the positive beta shift on the consumer side." --PNC CEO Bill Demchak (Bank)

CRE lenders see unfavorable risk and return

"there’s a fair amount of competition in stabilized commercial real estate projects, I mean there’s lots of liquidity out there. And so this quarter there just happen to be more transactions that we’ve looked at where we said, gosh, another risk return it just isn’t there" --Wells Fargo CEO Tim Sloan (Bank)

"[we] remain cautious in commercial mortgage markets where the competitive environment has created unfavorable conditions from a risk and return standpoint." --US Bancorp CFO Terry Dolan (Bank)

So far credit quality in CRE has remained pristine

"As far as the credit quality within commercial real estate has been pristine...as far as the strength of our commercial real estate portfolios, it’s performing extremely well." --Comerica CCO Pete Guilfoile (Bank)

Technology:

AI is becoming ubiquitous

"AI is going into every segment of our growth sectors. AI is getting to mobile. AI is getting to high-performance computing like deep learning. AI will go into automotive...And AI will go to simple IoT, MCU also...it is ubiquitous." --Taiwan Semiconductor Co-CEO Mark Liu (Semiconductors)

Financial service companies are adopting it

"Technology will impact all aspects of our business...Our investment teams are combining big data and machine learning with traditional fundamental human analysis to generate better sustainable alpha for our clients." --Blackrock CEO Larry Fink (Investment Management)

"We are focused on our digital agenda on advancing the way we leverage data on exploring and piloting smart investments and things like AI and robotics on setting the standard in terms of the experience for our customers and distribution partners and as always on being as productive and efficient as possible." --Travelers CEO Alan Schnitzer (Insurance)

"We have a number of expense initiatives. We are using, for example, artificial intelligence, AI, robotics...we will be going enterprise-wide in terms of finding ways to take these repetitious activities and apply good digitization and artificial intelligence to find more efficient and effective ways to reduce our cost." --BB&T CEO Kelly King (Bank)

Robots are not necessarily that much cheaper than people

"If you look at the average basis points paid from the various robo platforms, they range in general like things from something like 20 to 40 basis points. If you look at the average basis points for a full service advisory like us, just divide our revenue into our assets including everything, you get somewhere in the 70s, low 70 basis points. So the value added of the financial advice and the institutions behind it and the research, the product offering, the new issued calendar you could argue is being put out there for 30 to 40 basis points. It’s not clear to me that, that is such an expensive gap that that’s going to lead to the cannibalization issues" --Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman (Investment Bank)

80% of the world's data isn't public

"80% of the worlds data is owned by enterprises, it’s not searchable on the worldwide web, it’s customer data, and patient data, clinical data, supply chain data, transaction data and companies want to unlock and exploit that data." --IBM CFO Martin Schroeter (Technology)

John Legere had nice things to say about Masayoshi Son. Trying to butter him up?

"let’s remember that [Masa] is one of the richest, biggest dealmakers in the world and his moves are significantly tracked and I dare any of you to dissect when he is working on vision fund and when he is working on, the guy is one of the biggest players in the world. And what he has been doing makes sense. That’s Masa. Sprint is very lucky to have him as an owner." --T-Mobile CEO John Legere (Telecom)

3G/4G market growth is now just 6%

"For calendar 2017 3G, 4G device shipments, we continue to estimate shipment of 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion devices globally, up approximately 6% year-over-year at the midpoint." --Qualcomm CEO Steve Mollenkopf (Semiconductors)

Industrials:

Manufacturers are trying to increase prices

"we are increasing our price that we are realizing out there in the marketplace...so we are seeing improved pricing versus where we were last year when we said sort of said hey guys enough is enough, we need to start getting some price back into the market...I think it’s moving in the right direction." --Textron CEO Scott Donnelly (Conglomerate)

Transportation markets seem sluggish

"a few of our markets will experience year-over-year volume declines in the third quarter due to market specific headwinds you’re very familiar with. Auto shipments will be impacted by softening production." --CSX CFO Frank Lonegro (Railroad)

"Truckload volume growth has slowed from the second quarter. The holiday timing makes precise comparisons difficult this early in the month but truckload volume growth has been in the low single digits." --CH Robinson CEO John P. Wiehoff (Trucking Logistics)

Miscellaneous Nuggets of Wisdom:

It's ok to fail. It means you're trying.

"Failure is not such a bad thing and if you’re not failing maybe you’re not trying hard enough...you want to be introspective and look at that and say, are we being adventurous enough?" --Netflix CCO Ted Sarandos

Press your winners

"You ask about how we prioritize? Generally, when we see success, we try to add on to that until we reach a point of diminishing returns. And so, if we’re going to see success in some markets, we may up the content budget in those markets." --Netflix CEO Reed Hastings (SVOD)

Full transcripts can be found at www.seekingalpha.com