#WRONG IVE BEEN COMPLAINING ABOUT BOTH OF THOSE SCENES FROM THE START DONT GET IT TWISTED

[kairikibear]

im so timebomb pilled im sooooo timebomb pilled i love them so bad

[erizee]

💢💎💕 ask game??

oooh nice! ill mostly answer these for saw i think

sorry it took me so long to answer :/

💢: sth u dont like about ur hyperfixation

the way that most people, including several of the writers apparently, seem to think john is some kind of godly supergenius tbh. sure hes good at mechanics AND predicting people and he sure had a lot of plans and manipulated people a lot! im not saying hes not smart, im just annoyed at this idea that every single thing that happened after saw 3/4 was somehow planned by him. JILL made the decision to kill hoffman, john didnt know about amanda's blackmail, and he died super disappointed in her. and also, which is related to this, it also makes people complain about things that make perfect sense when you remember that a) john is human, and b) that the majority of the traps we see in the movies werent made by him/were set in motion by his apprentices. one of my favourite things about saw is how human everything is, even if its batshit insane most of the time. john a hypocrite and his reasons for testing people dont line up or dont always make sense, but that man is literally just an old man dying from a brain tumor, i think it makes perfect sense that he thinks anyone who isnt as sick as him but unhappy is wasting their life or that he sometimes gets really into justice but gets it really wrong! not to mention that a good portion of non-main test subjects couldnt have even been planned by him. john sometimes punishes bad people but hes NOT a morally good person or even an antihero and when people assume that they get frustrated with things that arent even an issue. theyre all fucked up people but i really enjoy how human they feel despite everything, and that includes john

this is more about the way people treat saw than the actual movies but especially jigsaw & spiral both tend to play up john like some kind of immortal supergenius that planned everything ahead. the same kind of goes for especially iv and vi. i like john a lot but hes just Some Old Guy lol, hes smart but hes also hypocritical and self-righteous and way too sure of himself. and THATS the thing i like about him (and the majority of other saw characters tbh)!! its just annoying when that exact thing you like keeps getting ignored by both fans and writers

wow that turned into a rant lol

💎: fun facts/trivia

its rly hard to come up with something that i havent seen on here before But there is one thing!: all the traps were built to Actually work and even though obviously there were always actor-safety things happening thats so cool to me

the guy that played timothy young (twisty bones trap saw 3) apparently panicked when they first started the trap because it ACTUALLY STARTED MOVING AND TWISTING HIS ARMS!! obviously not far enough to actually hurt but its soo fascinating to me. (he was also okay later)

the glass shards in the glass coffin were made of rubber but apparently, costas mandylor slash hoffman wanted them to be real glass which i find highly interesting lmao. sometimes, behind the scenes things can tell you a lot about a person :)

And lastly there is also that one video of the water cube, where they almost Actually drowned the guy that played strahm. these movies arent exactly great about actor safety gkdkgk but theyre amazing and these things are super fascinating to me

free extra fun fact: this is the question that i took the longest to answer lol

💕: one of ur favourite characters & y u like them

so my absolute favourite saw characters are hoffman, rigg and amanda, but ive already ranted about rigg many times and amanda makes me sad so ill make this a hoffman rant lol

i really like how on paper, he seems like a typical slasher villain but then hes pretty much the opposite. ive gone through his tag and found slasher memes that included him before and theyre so funny to me because thats not Who He Is. sure, hes evil horror man who kills people and i agree that hes hot lmao, and i Love that hes those things, but hes also such a fucking loser fjdjfj. he didnt even want to join jigsaw in the first place but then got jealous amanda was the new bestest apprentice in town. he looks like he could throw me over his shoulder without even blinking but then loses every single fight he doesnt have help or tricks in or even plans to lose them. he get soo sure of himself and hes so smug about it and then slowly panics for an entire movie. hes very smart and almost gets away with everything TWICE but he also makes stupid mistakes. hes a slut (affectionate) but also no one wants him. he has three homoerotic friendships and/or rivalries in the 5 movies hes in and yet no one cares. hes full of contradictions and he girlbosses too close to the sun and i love him for that

also, this is basically the same thing as with john, but i looove how human he is. if you just read a very general list about his story and characteristics ("dead sister, alcoholic, cop, serial killer, etc") none of that is special! but the way that hes written? acted? wishful-thinked-by-me (lol)? idk one or more of those just add so much. he gets overwhelmed and he panics and he cries catching his first victim and its SO funny but at the same time it makes me like him soo much. he SHOULD be a pretty generic villain character but he isnt *to me*. im definitely reading too much into everything lmao but idk hes. just very fun to watch and think about :)

Thanks for asking!!

[sweater-daddiesdumbdork]

hi💕 did you get my ask yesterday? anyway it’s okay if you didn’t, i just got another idea because i’m feeling shitty today, what about chris and you liking each other but you don’t want to say anything because you don’t feel worthy of him so when he insinuates you just dismiss him and he thinks you don’t like him like super angsty but happy ending?

This one was fun, I hope I got that bit of angsty feel to it, while keeping it light hearted. If he ever told me he had feelings for me, I would be all adkfjakldfjqier HOT MESS. Lol. If you like this kind of theme, @jtargaryen18 has a great chapter one with this feel called Jealous Guy with Chris x Reader. Its so good! 

You looked at Chris as you popped open his fridge, and stuck your head in. “Buddy, if you are out of beer before this bbq even begins, can we even call it a bbq?” Straightening and looking at the thread bare shelves, you arch a brow. Did he even eat?

“Its out in the garage Y/N, trust me I know better then not to have beer.” He rolls his eyes at you, making burger patties and setting them on a platter, a splash of Worcester sauce, salt, pepper. Yea good enough. You make your way to the garage through the kitchens side door and grab two bottles. Okay, thats better. He had a full fridge in the garage, as well as the extras to bring out into the back yard when they go to set up.

Going back in, you make sure the door is firmly shut, outside was sweltering already, and you considered the idea that you all maybe should have extra ice on hand. “Yes I got plenty of ice to” Chris says with a grin as he rips off some saran wrap and covers the burgers before handing you the platter to place into his fridge.

“I promise, I only asked you here to hang out. I got all the rest covered." Chris moved to wash his hands and you hip check the fridge shut.

"Okay! Okay! I give! I'm here.... Only as a guest...."

He paused, knowing it was coming.

".... Who feels like she should help you get ready."

That earned you a hand towel being chucked at you, the two of you laughing as you both headed out to his patio, calling Dodger to join you two, and Chris snagged his sunglasses while waiting for his pup to join you two.

The two of you has been best friends for many years, it was an easy going, no expectation kinda deal. There we're times, you wanted to take it further, you knew those little over the top things he did privately for his girlfriend's, after all you had helped him brainstorm a few of them. But they were never for you, always the best friend, you weren't complaining. You valued this, but you wondered what it could have been like.

You were out of his league anyways, you knew that, he knew that. Life is what it is. These were your thoughts on the subject.

But the past year he pulled back from that scene. Seemed to focus on himself, what he wanted to accomplish after his Marvel stint. You had asked him a couple times if he was seeing anyone. Chris would just kind of shrug, become elusive in his answers. "He, I'm to busy"

Somehow you would never catch his glance your way when you would go back to what you were doing. He was not to busy, he was conflicted.

You were his best friend. He didn't want to ruin one of his most valued relationships by asking for more. Even if it could be the best thing in his life.

"When's everyone supposed to get here?" You ask, as you move over to sit on the edge of his in ground pool. Kicking off your flip flops and lowering to dip your toes in, and sinking your leg in as you sat down, careful with the glass bottle. He loped over next to you, already barefoot, he lowered next to you and took a drag before he set it next to yours.

"Couple hours yet, although Scott and Zach will probably be by sooner."

"They are so damn cute" you remarked, having just met Scotts boyfriend a few weeks ago when you were invited to a party they were throwing

Chris chuckled softly, watching Dodger on the other side of the pool, rubbing himself in the freshly cut grass, staining his white fur green. "They really are, and Scotts so happy, probably the happiest ive seen him in a long time." You picked up on that wistful note, glancing over at him and let your shoulder nudge him. "Did I just hear a note of longing Christopher, Mr. I like being a bachelor?"

You were only teasing, but he looked thoughtful at you, blue eyes scanning over your face, and you felt that all familiar tingle flushing the tops of your cheeks. Damn it y/n, check yourself woman.

"Well maybe, yea. I would like something more then the occasional fling, and just sex. But I'm not sure she be interested in me like that. We've never discussed it, and shes never necessarily hinted in more then what we got."

You, so completely not picking up on what he was really saying, cause in your mind, he couldn't ever be into you. "Well doofus, you have to tell her. Come on, your a catch Chris. Any woman would be happy with you, and with luck, she will make you happy to." You tipped back your bottle, the icy cold beer tingling your lips in that delicious way, your tongue would swipe along your bottom lip, Chris trying to keep himself from getting to distracted.

Playing with the neck of his bottle, he sloshed it a bit, and then set it aside before taking a drink from it. “Okay, I will. Y/N, what do you say, would you like to go out on a date with me?” You just about choked on your beer, sputtering and he reached over to tap his hand against your back. “Jesus Christ woman, breath!”

“You-you want to go out, with me? why in the world would you want to...?” Your voice drifted off, and Chris arched his brows, reaching out to take your hand, which you let him. Still shocked at his question.

“Really Y/N? You cant really be questioning why? Ive known you for years. We have fun together, you already know about all the risks that come to dating me. Youve never, wondered about what it would be like for us? Cause I have many times.”

“Well yea Chris, I mean... ive noticed, dont get me wrong. But im me... your you, it just...” You gave a shrug, not really wanting to say those words. Chris tilted his head, blue eyes searching for what you werent exactly spitting out, and shook his head.

“I dont get what you mean Y/N, what does that have to do with anything?”

“Come on Chris”pulling back your hand, you splashed your leg a bit while drawing it out, and wrapping your arm around it as you bent it, watching the water run down to the tips of your toes, suddenly they were fascinating, you could really just watch those droplets race away all day then to answer Chris’s question. But he wasnt backing down, and you could feel his incredibly blue in the sunshine, im innocent but also know what Im doing to you babes, eyes fucking staring at you. “You are so out of my league, Ive seen the woman youve dated in the past.”

Taken aback, his brows furrowed in frustration. “Thats bullshit Y/N, you think I would think anyone wouldnt deserve me cause I happen to make movies?” He went silent, contemplating what he wanted to say next. The fact that you felt that way about yourself just proved that he was going to have to show you how incredible you were. “Just a chance Y/N, if you have any feelings for me. Its all I ask for.” Turning back to you, he dipped his head to hover near yours.

Waiting for you to give an answer, your heart race cause he was that close. You could feel the soft breaths of air coming from his soft breaths and your eyes darted to those full lips, making your own throb with wanting to brush against them. But hes your friend, your mind screams and then a soft whisper. But he can be so much more.

It was all interrupted when Scott called from inside the house, and you pulled away, scooting back and moving to a stand, grabbing the emptied beer bottles. It was an excuse to get away from what you actually wanted to say. “Let me grab us another!” Racing away to go greet Scott, Chris lets his head falls into his hands, groaning. I was so close, and scared you away.

Scott busted through the door to find Chris pulling himself to a stand, catching the drawn look he had, he tilted his head “Out with it, I know that look, and thats the one you use when something is bugging you.”

“Nothing is wrong Scott” Chris lied, Dodger promptly coming over to greet his “uncle”, in which Scott immediately ruffled his ears. Not to be distracted though, he gave another spill it motion.

“Okay, if you MUST know Scott, I might have told Y/N I had feelings for her.”

Scotts eyes widened, and he grinned. “Well its about damn time Chris! You two have been dancing around each other for a year. Even Zach said we should just push you two together to kiss.”

“Yea well, it didnt go as I hoped.” His hand went up to the back of his neck, rubbing it. “She feels shes not in the same league? How is that even a worry.”

Scott shrugged and loped his arm over his brothers shoulder. “Hey, shes probably just nervous and caught her by surprise. Talk to her again after the party, and relax bro. Trust in your gut.” Chris wrinkled his brow as he listened to Scott, he made some good points. It was unexpected after all. He had certainly never hinted it before at you that he had any real interests. “Come on, let go see what those two are up to and finish setting up.”

Inside, you and Zach were dicing up some fruit they had brought for a fruit salad, having avoided bringing Chris that second beer, and Chris didnt remark on it once they came back inside. He smiled over at you and you glanced down right quick, moving to drop the strawberries in. Was it going to be awkward? Fuck you hoped not. But to your relief, there was no change. Everyone fell into an easy chatter, Chris went and started his grill, and before you all knew it, the party was underway with people showing up, bringing more food, games were played and most likely to much beer got consumed.

The evening started winding down, and you bid your goodbyes, touching Chris’s arm “So im going to head out, it was a great time, dont forget to drink some water before bed though. You will wake up with a headache.” A frown plays on his lips.

“Wait, your really leaving? I thought we could talk.” His eyes flashed hopeful at you, and honestly right now it was all more then you wanted to get into.

“Yea, I got an early morning and stuff I need to take care of.” White lies werent harmful, right?

“How about I come over tomorrow then?” He was still trying, one thing about Chris, once he set his mind to something, he rarely backed down.

“Text you, I promise!” You say a bit overly cheerfully and dart out the door, leaving him on his own once more. Digging out your keys, you escape to your car and pull out of his drive. Driving around, you ended up going nowhere near home, instead you drove around, trying to process your thoughts.

Why couldnt you Y/N? Dont you deserve some kind of happiness and youve always been attracted to him. Just always putting yourself down, you did that with your ex to. Here Chris was saying he had feelings beyond just friends and you ducked out the door before telling him that you might have as well for years.

This was how it went for a couple hours, getting dark you turned on your head lights, and before you realized where you were, your car pulled into Chris’s driveway, tapping your fingers on the wheel. His lights were still on, but everyones cars were gone. Were you really going to do this? Yes... Yes you are. Y/N, you have someone who wants to see if you two are meant to be something more, someone you actually care for as well. Stop holding back.

Going up the front steps, you consider letting yourself in, but you simply knock instead, twisting your fingers together. Dodgers bark emits, and you can hear Chris on the other side. “Hush boy, its okay. Back up buddy.” And then the click, he opened his door and a quirk of a smile folds up the corner of his mouth. “Hey.... “ You take a deep breath and step up to him, grasping his face in your hands, and sweep up to your toes to reach him. Why he have to be ridiculously tall? The sharp taste of beer and him flooded your senses, and his arm tilted around to brace you in close, holding back enough so you could control this kiss, it was yours, and he wasnt about to scare you off again.

Pulling back, you smooth your hands down to his shoulders, clearing your throat. “First of all, Chris you know I dont want to loose our friendship, second I want to see how good we could be. And third...”

Suddenly Scott appeared in the background, grinning wide. Apparently he didnt leave. “ITS ABOUT TIME YOU TWO!!!”

Cats out of the bag, you and Chris were going to see where this would go.

[irregulardiaryposts]

00:53 21/06/2021

Hello again <3

so i think im gonna write about my mental health today because i dont feel like i have anyone who understands fully apart from myself maybe so i need to Organise my Thoughts. as a kid i had a pretty normal childhood, a mum a dad and a brother - pretty nuclear right. but as a child i felt like my family maybe wasnt quite right, that this wasnt supposed to be what family is? perhaps. - i was scared of my mum a lot because she wasnt very understanding of me - and i was a great kid, never getting into trouble, very good at school, no issues whatsover. the thing that really shows how i thought of my relationship with my mum was when i was like maybe 8 or so having a parents night and at it my teacher had nothing bad to say apart from i was kinda bossy in group settings (im sure i dont need to explain how misogynistic that actually is- i was not bossy i was a natural leader) and when i got home my mum told me off for that and i felt like she was kinda cold to me and not taking all the good things about me into consideration when telling me off for that.

i feel like thats a really defining moment in my life when i realised i cant expect adults to Understand me, realised how people treat young girls, also started my defiant behaviour maybe or was kinda one of the key moments that made me dislike certain authorities in my life, that if people wont understand me regardless of how i explain myself then i wont bother trying to be understood by people who wont matter to me. anyway yes i was scared of my mum-like petrified sometimes- but my dad wasnt great either, he also had his shortcomings. i feel like he never really cared about me like he was kinda apathetic towards raising me like a parent - i feel he would be better suited as an uncle to someone rather than a dad - the funny childish guy that makes kids laugh -not the uncaring dad that cant be bothered to really learn about his kids. and i feel im sitting here complaining about my parents when the fact is that a lot of adults should never be parents, society has conditioned people into thinking the only way to be fulfilled in life is to live vicariously through your kids when life gets to such a boring and monotonous place where you feel the need to create a new life to spice things up lmao. i feel a lot of parents regret having kids but they cannot express that regret because it was their choice and they should deal with that, also saying you regret it would be pretty horrible to the kid.

so while yes i am complaing about my parents i dont think they were Bad in any way just not that great yaknow. also i just notice all these things growing up and i feel its been pretty impactful to understanding myself and my parents. also just some anecdotes from my childhood - i used to watch my dad play video games like the uncharted games i think theyre called, and whenever i got scared i used to hide behind the couch until the scary part was over (usually a lot of guns and high energy fight scenes thats too much adrenaline for a 7 yo) and sometimes when i would take out my dad/brothers game i would get them to fo the hard parts and do other stuff myself - i dont remember many games i played apart from one of the spidermen games where u could just web around the city and not progress apart from sometimes you would come across some strippers and i accidently got into a fight with them (also hot women with umbrellas they use to fight- maybe i went near them on purpose) i would yell to my dad and get him to do it for me. also on new years eve whenever my mum was working and we werent going to any family parties we would make a bunch of food and put it out in the kitchen - wed make like homemade onion rings, chips, have crisps and dips, and a bunch of junk basically and watch like austin powers or some shit and genuinely miss those times they were so simple. but a lot of thats tainted now from what happened. also my brothers always been annoying as shit but when we were kids we couldnt be in the same room without arguing which like whatever thats how kids are esp brothers and sisters for some reason.

i think thats majority of the background needed for the rest. wait this is a little addition but i meant to mention this here so ill put it in- basically sometimes on holidays i would geniunely think my parents hate each other/ were getting a divorce like once when we were in florida in 2012 my dad convinced my mum (as well as me and my brother convinced her since we liked them) we convinced her to go on a water slide thing that u had to walk up the stairs for, it was outdoors, and it was kinda tall and then we got in one of the big donut things and it swooshed from side to side a lot and was generally pretty scary i suppose for someone who doesnt like rides esp since you had to hold on to the handles there were no buckles or anything, and so when we got off the ride my mum was big mad at my dad and like wouldnt talk to him and stuff like that which was pretty uncomfortable to have to be the 8 year old mediator of that but there was also another occasion i think (maybe also at florida) where they were made at each other and i asked my mum if they were getting divorced and all she said was 'ask ur dad' like???? no sort of consolation to this child who thinks their parents hate each other nooo just petty 'ask him' and theres also been other times when they fight/ are mad and they dont feel the need to hide it from us so i felt quite anxious around my parents sometimes.

so ahnyway . yes. when i had just turned 13 my parents split up and it fucked me up in a multitude of ways. also i cant beleive i stopped being a proper kid at 13, like as soon as i turned a teenager life hit me like a fucking truck. so the context as to why they split is still kinda lost to me ngl but they didnt tell me much anyway since i was young but my mum basically said my dad didnt love her anymore and he wanted to separate. its kinda funny because leading up to this my dad had been sleeping in the living room for like a few weeks and there was on and off fighting i could hear and i basically thought they were fighting over me and that i was in trouble and it kinda used to keep me up coz i could hear loud voices when they thought i was asleep- which is probably the cause of why i get veryyyy mad and angry when i hear my mum at like 1 am downstairs when shes drinking and im trying to sleep, probably something ive internalised (is that the word?) and made me respond so strongly to those type of noises.

anywayyyyy yes i thought i was in trouble when they were actually just getting a divorce so ... yeah you can really tell i was young and didnt understand adult issues or really couldnt figure this out myself from all the arguing and him sleeping downstairs lmao. anyway my dad moved out and it was just me my mum and my brother now and at this point my brother wouldve been about to turn 18, so although still kinda shit, not really as affected my it as a 13 yo, just to keep in mind. so i was devastated obviously and my whole world was kinda shattered but i had to hold it together a bit, also i was sometimes my mothers own therapist having to say things like 'everything happens for a reason' 'itll get better' in response to her deteriorating mental health and her questions that would be really hard for me to answer like 'why did he leave' etc (bish im a child be there for me not wallow in ur own pity, u have ur whole life to sort this out youre an adult, im a 13 you and only months away from wanting to kms hun think of ur CHILD please) anyway this left me feeling like a burden if i were to share my mental state because when my mum shared her stuff she was burdening me (AGAIN i was 13 she is an adult) so that made me bottle a lot of things up also the fact that i had no one to share it with because she works as a nurse and now shes a single mother and so she works almost all hours of most days and i dont see her much, my brother was either working at this time or just didnt give enough of a shit about me to make sure i ate.

i went from being catered to for every meal because i didnt know how to cook to suddenly no one being there for me so i had to learn how to do it myself. needless to say that lead to a bunch of unhealthy eating habbits like eating the same things every day - frozen pizza, cheese toasties, i cant think of anything else probs because i didnt make anything else just ate chocolates or didnt eat breakfast coz i woke up at 2pm. just general unhealthyness both in substance and like how healthy that was for my head yk. also this is during the summer btw so it gave me the option to be incredibly depressed - im not saying that as an edgy teen thing to say im being 100% genuine i was very depressed like textbook style - not eating or overeating, not showering/ taking care of myself, extreme lack of energy and hated doing social things coz i had to put on a farce that i was okay meanwhile i couldnt wait to get into my bed and sleep the next day and a half away.

i very vividly remember at the start of the summer holiday my friend asked me if i wanted to go out and do something and i rememeber just crying at that because i had no reason to say no but i just didnt want to and felt like i couldnt do anything and so i lied and said i wasnt feeling well and then put my phone down and curled up in my bed and cried coz i was frustrated and upset and i couldnt really understand what was wrong with me and why i was Like This.

god i didnt take into account how tired i was and how late it is when i started this huh, this isnt even half of it, but i have obligations in the mornign, the last until uni or whatever so ill put this in my drafts and finsih it somethime. alrigtht it is 02:08 btw z_z. also ive just now decided im gonna re organise my tumblr so if this ends up being an actual blog thing i can navigate it easier by adding tags and such. anywau goodnight.

20:21 30/06/2021

MOTHERFOIUHIFIUDVMKCVKM V

MY LAPTOP SHUT DOWE IN THE MIDDLE OF THSAT SO ITS ALL GONE BASICALLY I WAS DEPRESSED BURTNOUT GIFTERD KID AND IT SUCKED YADDa YADDSZ ANYTWAY

so

23:01- well. yes earlier i wrote a little about the ages 13-16 and how they sucked but whatever it got deleted the more pertinent stuff happened in the last year or so anyway.

um yeah so i started the last year of highschool as a 16 year old with a fucked up brain and never having learned any study techniques or work ethic in the slightest. i took 3 uni-level courses only one i actually wanted to do, most people take 2 at most or even 1/0 but do other classes. honestly it fucking sucked this year for school but i scraped all passes so thank god for that. so i started the year quite optimistic, or as much as i could be and in all fairness the content of this year wasnt actually that bad considering i was doing 3 hard classes but corona really truly fucked everything up and by November i had mentally dropped out of my classes but of course i still had to go to them. i feel like im an oddly independent teen because ive never had a solid parental presence in a while, like i had to do a lot for myself and maybe i should thank myself for getting me through it all because i really did pull through.

my thoughts keep drifting from what im writing coz i wanna talk about different things and im just thinking maybe i shouldve just posted the last one then added a reblog when i could be bothered to write and not force myself because if theres ever a reoccurring theme in my life is that if i force myself to do anything i will hate it with my entire being, so maybe i should just do a short synopsis and write about something else afterwards.

so i took 3 hard classes, slowly lost all motivation because in jan it switches to online classes and i could Not deal with those it was horrible, and i became more of a "troublesome student" in one of my classes *cough* maths *cough* and almost got "kicked out" of taking the class just because the teacher was a control freak but like wanted to control all of our actions and behaviour, also i think i may have adhd and another kid in my class i think he does too and surprise surprise the teacher "dislikes" him too but its only a farce because he doesnt actually dislike him its only so that i cant call him out for singling me out when other students behave "badly" too. but anyways maybe ill come back to this in a while when i can be arsed explaining my complicated relationship with my parents.

the only reason i wanted to write this today was so that i could tag the post with like june 2021 or something and not june/july, but i might make another post later, Anyway happy end of pride month i supose, hope u figure it out me!

[themoneybuff-blog]

Thinking in bets: How to make smarter decisions

I read a lot of books. Nearly every book has some nugget of wisdom I can take from it, but its rare indeed when I read a book and feel like Ive hit the mother lode. In 2018, Ive been fortunate enough to read two books that Ill be mining for years to come. The first was Sapiens, the 2015 brief history of mankind from Yuval Noah Harari. I finished the second book yesterday: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke. Duke is a professional poker player; Thinking in Bets is her attempt to take lessons from the world of poker and apply them to making smarter decisions in all aspects of life. Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out, Duke writes in the books introduction. Those two things? The quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about. We have complete control over the quality of our decisions but we have little (or no) control over luck. The Quality of Our Decisions The first (and greatest) variable in how our lives turn out is the quality of our decisions. People have a natural tendency to conflate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. Theyre not the same thing. You can make a smart, rational choice but still get poor results. That doesnt mean you should have made a different choice; it simply means that other factors (such as luck) influenced the results. Driving home drunk, for instance, is a poor decision. Just because you make arrive home without killing yourself or anyone else does not mean you made a good choice. It merely means you got a good result. Duke gives an example from professional football. At the end of Super Bowl XLIX, the Seattle Seahawks were down by four points with 26 seconds left in the game. They had the ball with second down at the New England Patriots one-yard line. While everbody expected them to run the ball, they threw a pass. That pass was intercepted and the Seawhawks lost the game. [embedded content] Armchair quarterbacks around the world complained that this was the worst play-call in NFL history. (Ive linked to just four stories there. Theyre all brutal. You can find many more online.) Duke argues, though, that the call was fine. In fact, she believes it was a smart call. It was a quality decision. There was only a 2% chance that the ball would be intercepted. There was a high percentage chance of winning the game with a touchdown. Most importantly, if the pass was incomplete, the Seahawks would have two more plays to try again. But if the team opted to run instead? Because they only had one time-out remaining, theyd only get one more chance to score if they failed. The call wasnt bad. The result was bad. Theres a big difference between these two things, but humans generally fail to differentiate between actions and results. Duke says that poker players have a term for this logical fallacy: resulting. Resulting is assuming your decision-making is good or bad based on a small set of outcomes. If you play your cards correctly but still lose a hand, youre resulting when you focus on the outcome instead of the quality of your decisions. You cannot control outcomes; you can only control your actions. Note: As long-time readers know, I grew up Mormon. One of the songs we were taught as children has this terrific lyric: Do what is right, let the consequence follow. This has become something of a mantra for me as an adult. If I do the right thing whatever that might be in a given context then I cannot feel guilty if I get a poor result. Its my job to do my best. Beyond that, I cannot control what happens. Luck and Incomplete Information Why dont smart decisions always lead to good results? Because we dont have complete control over our lives and we dont have all of the information. Fundamentally, Duke says, results are influenced by luck. Randomness. Chance. Happenstance. She writes: We are uncomfortable with the idea that luck plays a significant role in our lives. We recognize the existence of luck, but we resist the idea that, despite our best efforts, things might not work out the way we want. It feels better to imagine the world as an orderly place, where randomness does not wreak havoc and things are perfectly predictable. Duke contrasts poker (and life) with chess. Chess is a game of complete information, a game of pure skill. Theres no luck involved. At all times, all of the pieces are available for both players to see. There are no dice rolls, nothing to randomize the game. As a result, the better player almost always wins. (When the better player doesnt win, its because of easily identifiable mistakes.) Because chess is a game of complete information, luck isnt a factor the outcome is only a matter of the quality of your decisions. In poker, however, theres a lot you dont know. What cards do your opponents hold? What cards remain in the deck? How likely are your opponents to bluff? And so on. Experienced poker players learn to think in terms of odds. With this hand, I have a 74% chance of winning. I should fold. These cards only give me a 18% chance of coming out ahead. Its because our decisions are made with incomplete information that life sometimes seems so difficult. You can do the right thing and still get poor results. You can opt not to drink on New Years Eve, for instance, but still get blindsided by somebody who did to drink and drive. You made a quality decision, but happenstance hit you upside the head anyhow. Duke cites a scene from The Princess Bride as an example of how incomplete information affects the outcomes of our decisions. Criminal mastermind Vizzini and the Dread Pirate Roberts engage in a battle of wits: [embedded content] Vizzini pours two goblets of wine, then Roberts (actually our hero, Westley, in disguise) poisons one of them with deadly ioacane powder. The challenge is for Vizzini to choose the non-poisoned goblet. Vizzini cackles with glee when Roberts/Westley downs the poison but then falls dead after drinking his own goblet. It turns out both goblets had been poisoned, but Roberts had spent the previous few years building an immunity to iocane powder. Vizzini made a quality decision based on the information he had, but he didnt have all of the information: both goblets were poisoned, and his opponent in this battle of wits was immune to the poison in the first place! Thinking in Bets Duke argues that in order to make smarter decisions, we have to embrace both the idea that theres a lot of luck in life and the reality that were swimming in uncertainty. Theres a stigma in our culture about appearing ignorant, about being unsure. Duke says that becoming comfortable with uncertainty and not knowing is a vital step to becoming a better decision-maker. Admitting that we dont know has an undeservedly bad reputation, she writes. What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of Im not sure. Duke suggests that by moving to a framework of Im not sure, were far less likely to fall into the trap of black and white thinking, of false certainty. She cites Stuart Firesteins TED talk about the pursuit of ignorance: [embedded content] We should be pursuing high-quality ignorance. Based on all of this, how then can we make smarter decisions? Duke says that we should stop thinking in terms of right and wrong. Few things are ever 0% or 100% likely to occur. Few people are ever 0% or 100% right about what they know or believe. Instead, we should think in bets. Decisions are bets on the future, Duke writes, and they arent right or wrong based on whether they turn out well on any particular iteration. An unwanted decision doesnt make our decision wrong if we thought about the alternatives and probabilities in advance and allocated our resources accordingly. Duke says that because pro poker players learn to think in terms of odds during their games, they transfer this way of thinking to everyday life. Job and relocation decisions are bets, she writes. Sales negotiations and contracts are bets. Buying a house is a bet. Ordering the chicken instead of the steak is a bet. Everything is a bet. Just as each poker bet carries a different chance of success (based on the quality of the hand, the hands of the other players, etc.), so too the bets we make in life carry different chances of success. And our personal beliefs have (or should have) varying degrees of certainty. Duke wants readers to begin thinking about their beliefs and decisions in terms of probabilities rather than in terms of black and white. Turns out I already do this to a small degree but usually for minor stuff. In fact, Ive done it several times in the past week. A few days ago, I was listening to a Big Band station on Pandora. The song Green Eyes came on. I wonder what year this is from? I thought. I listened to the vocals, to the band, to the recording quality. I think theres an 80% chance this song is from 1939 give or take two years, I thought. I looked it up. The song was released in 1941. (I listen to a lot of older music, and I play this game often.)Because its been hot in Portland lately, folks in my neighborhood have all been taking early morning walks. We all tend to follow the same two-mile loop because its easy. Ive started playing a game when I pass somebody. Okay, the dog and I passed David Hedges at the llama farm. Where will we encounter him on the top side of the loop? Ill be its between Roys house and the bottom of the hill. Its fun for me to see how accurate my guesses are. Duke believes that we should each do this sort of thing whenever we make a decision. Before we commit to a course of action, we should think about possible outcomes and how likely each of those outcomes is to occur. Lets say youve only got $200 in the bank and its a week from payday. Should you join your friends for that weekend motorcycle trip? Or should you save that cash in case something goes wrong? Or, thinking farther in the future, what outcomes are you seeking in life? What decision will improve the odds of achieving those outcomes? Or, imagine that youre trying to decide whether or not to buy a home. As you consider the possibilities, think about the probability that each possible future will occur. Dont simply cling to the outcome youre hoping for. Be objective. If the odds of success seem reasonable, then pursue your desired course of action. But if they dont, then pull the plug. Duke writes: In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing. We are constantly deciding among alternative futures: one where we go to the movies, one where we go bowling, one where we stay home. Or futures where we take a job in Des Moines, stay at our current job, or take some time away from work. Whenever we make a choice, we are betting on a potential future. Every choice carries an opportunity cost. When you choose to save for the future, for instance, youre giving up pleasure in the present. Or, if you choose to spend in the present, youre giving up future financial freedom. Final Thoughts

For a long time, Ive argued that the best books about money are often not about money at all. Thinking in Bets is another example of this. While Duke uses plenty of personal finance examples, the book itself is about self-improvement. Its not a money manual. Yet the info here could have a profound impact on your financial future. Theres a lot more in this book that I havent covered in my review. (Ive really only touched on the first third of the material!) For me, the biggest takeaway comes early: Its vital to separate decision quality from results. The rest of the book explores how to improve the quality of your decisions. Among the strategies Duke advocates are these: Learn to examine your own beliefs. Be your own devils advocate. If youre certain about something, explore the opposing viewpoint. (If youre liberal, seek conservative opinions. If youre conservative, look for liberal voices.) Be skeptical of yourself and others.Build a network of trusted advisors, people who can give you feedback on your beliefs and decisions. But dont make these support groups homogeneous. Draw on people from a variety of backgrounds and belief systems. If you only associate with people who think the same way you do, you never give yourself a chance to grow, and youll never spot possible errors in your thinking. (This is like the current problems Facebook is facing with its deliberately-created echo chambers, which only serve to reinforce the way people think instead of challenging them.)When you make decisions, think of the future. Use barriers and pre-commitment to do the right thing automatically. Practice backcasting, a visualization method in which you define a desired outcome then figure out how you might get there. The book is dense dense! with ideas and information. When I finished it, I wanted to go back and read it again. Plus, I wanted to plow through the nearly 200 other works that Duke lists in her bibliography. I feel like I could spend an entire year diving deeper into this book and its related reading. But, as much as I wish it were, Thinking in Bets isnt perfect. A strong argument could be made that this material would work better as a TED talk or a 5000-word essay in The Atlantic (or on Get Rich Slowly!). The book is so packed with info that it sometimes loses its way. Theres also a lot of repetition too much repetition. Plus, it seems to lack a clear sense of organization. These quibbles aside, Thinking in Bets has earned a permanent place on my bookshelf. If I ever get around to putting together a Get Rich Slowly library (a project Ive been planning for years!), this book will be in it. I got a lot out of it. And I bet you will too. https://www.getrichslowly.org/smarter-decisions/

[themoneybuff-blog]

Thinking in bets: How to make smarter decisions

I read a lot of books. Nearly every book has some nugget of wisdom I can take from it, but its rare indeed when I read a book and feel like Ive hit the mother lode. In 2018, Ive been fortunate enough to read two books that Ill be mining for years to come. The first was Sapiens, the 2015 brief history of mankind from Yuval Noah Harari. I finished the second book yesterday: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke. Duke is a professional poker player; Thinking in Bets is her attempt to take lessons from the world of poker and apply them to making smarter decisions in all aspects of life. Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out, Duke writes in the books introduction. Those two things? The quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about. We have complete control over the quality of our decisions but we have little (or no) control over luck. The Quality of Our Decisions The first (and greatest) variable in how our lives turn out is the quality of our decisions. People have a natural tendency to conflate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. Theyre not the same thing. You can make a smart, rational choice but still get poor results. That doesnt mean you should have made a different choice; it simply means that other factors (such as luck) influenced the results. Driving home drunk, for instance, is a poor decision. Just because you make arrive home without killing yourself or anyone else does not mean you made a good choice. It merely means you got a good result. Duke gives an example from professional football. At the end of Super Bowl XLIX, the Seattle Seahawks were down by four points with 26 seconds left in the game. They had the ball with second down at the New England Patriots one-yard line. While everbody expected them to run the ball, they threw a pass. That pass was intercepted and the Seawhawks lost the game. [embedded content] Armchair quarterbacks around the world complained that this was the worst play-call in NFL history. (Ive linked to just four stories there. Theyre all brutal. You can find many more online.) Duke argues, though, that the call was fine. In fact, she believes it was a smart call. It was a quality decision. There was only a 2% chance that the ball would be intercepted. There was a high percentage chance of winning the game with a touchdown. Most importantly, if the pass was incomplete, the Seahawks would have two more plays to try again. But if the team opted to run instead? Because they only had one time-out remaining, theyd only get one more chance to score if they failed. The call wasnt bad. The result was bad. Theres a big difference between these two things, but humans generally fail to differentiate between actions and results. Duke says that poker players have a term for this logical fallacy: resulting. Resulting is assuming your decision-making is good or bad based on a small set of outcomes. If you play your cards correctly but still lose a hand, youre resulting when you focus on the outcome instead of the quality of your decisions. You cannot control outcomes; you can only control your actions. Note: As long-time readers know, I grew up Mormon. One of the songs we were taught as children has this terrific lyric: Do what is right, let the consequence follow. This has become something of a mantra for me as an adult. If I do the right thing whatever that might be in a given context then I cannot feel guilty if I get a poor result. Its my job to do my best. Beyond that, I cannot control what happens. Luck and Incomplete Information Why dont smart decisions always lead to good results? Because we dont have complete control over our lives and we dont have all of the information. Fundamentally, Duke says, results are influenced by luck. Randomness. Chance. Happenstance. She writes: We are uncomfortable with the idea that luck plays a significant role in our lives. We recognize the existence of luck, but we resist the idea that, despite our best efforts, things might not work out the way we want. It feels better to imagine the world as an orderly place, where randomness does not wreak havoc and things are perfectly predictable. Duke contrasts poker (and life) with chess. Chess is a game of complete information, a game of pure skill. Theres no luck involved. At all times, all of the pieces are available for both players to see. There are no dice rolls, nothing to randomize the game. As a result, the better player almost always wins. (When the better player doesnt win, its because of easily identifiable mistakes.) Because chess is a game of complete information, luck isnt a factor the outcome is only a matter of the quality of your decisions. In poker, however, theres a lot you dont know. What cards do your opponents hold? What cards remain in the deck? How likely are your opponents to bluff? And so on. Experienced poker players learn to think in terms of odds. With this hand, I have a 74% chance of winning. I should fold. These cards only give me a 18% chance of coming out ahead. Its because our decisions are made with incomplete information that life sometimes seems so difficult. You can do the right thing and still get poor results. You can opt not to drink on New Years Eve, for instance, but still get blindsided by somebody who did to drink and drive. You made a quality decision, but happenstance hit you upside the head anyhow. Duke cites a scene from The Princess Bride as an example of how incomplete information affects the outcomes of our decisions. Criminal mastermind Vizzini and the Dread Pirate Roberts engage in a battle of wits: [embedded content] Vizzini pours two goblets of wine, then Roberts (actually our hero, Westley, in disguise) poisons one of them with deadly ioacane powder. The challenge is for Vizzini to choose the non-poisoned goblet. Vizzini cackles with glee when Roberts/Westley downs the poison but then falls dead after drinking his own goblet. It turns out both goblets had been poisoned, but Roberts had spent the previous few years building an immunity to iocane powder. Vizzini made a quality decision based on the information he had, but he didnt have all of the information: both goblets were poisoned, and his opponent in this battle of wits was immune to the poison in the first place! Thinking in Bets Duke argues that in order to make smarter decisions, we have to embrace both the idea that theres a lot of luck in life and the reality that were swimming in uncertainty. Theres a stigma in our culture about appearing ignorant, about being unsure. Duke says that becoming comfortable with uncertainty and not knowing is a vital step to becoming a better decision-maker. Admitting that we dont know has an undeservedly bad reputation, she writes. What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of Im not sure. Duke suggests that by moving to a framework of Im not sure, were far less likely to fall into the trap of black and white thinking, of false certainty. She cites Stuart Firesteins TED talk about the pursuit of ignorance: [embedded content] We should be pursuing high-quality ignorance. Based on all of this, how then can we make smarter decisions? Duke says that we should stop thinking in terms of right and wrong. Few things are ever 0% or 100% likely to occur. Few people are ever 0% or 100% right about what they know or believe. Instead, we should think in bets. Decisions are bets on the future, Duke writes, and they arent right or wrong based on whether they turn out well on any particular iteration. An unwanted decision doesnt make our decision wrong if we thought about the alternatives and probabilities in advance and allocated our resources accordingly. Duke says that because pro poker players learn to think in terms of odds during their games, they transfer this way of thinking to everyday life. Job and relocation decisions are bets, she writes. Sales negotiations and contracts are bets. Buying a house is a bet. Ordering the chicken instead of the steak is a bet. Everything is a bet. Just as each poker bet carries a different chance of success (based on the quality of the hand, the hands of the other players, etc.), so too the bets we make in life carry different chances of success. And our personal beliefs have (or should have) varying degrees of certainty. Duke wants readers to begin thinking about their beliefs and decisions in terms of probabilities rather than in terms of black and white. Turns out I already do this to a small degree but usually for minor stuff. In fact, Ive done it several times in the past week. A few days ago, I was listening to a Big Band station on Pandora. The song Green Eyes came on. I wonder what year this is from? I thought. I listened to the vocals, to the band, to the recording quality. I think theres an 80% chance this song is from 1939 give or take two years, I thought. I looked it up. The song was released in 1941. (I listen to a lot of older music, and I play this game often.)Because its been hot in Portland lately, folks in my neighborhood have all been taking early morning walks. We all tend to follow the same two-mile loop because its easy. Ive started playing a game when I pass somebody. Okay, the dog and I passed David Hedges at the llama farm. Where will we encounter him on the top side of the loop? Ill be its between Roys house and the bottom of the hill. Its fun for me to see how accurate my guesses are. Duke believes that we should each do this sort of thing whenever we make a decision. Before we commit to a course of action, we should think about possible outcomes and how likely each of those outcomes is to occur. Lets say youve only got $200 in the bank and its a week from payday. Should you join your friends for that weekend motorcycle trip? Or should you save that cash in case something goes wrong? Or, thinking farther in the future, what outcomes are you seeking in life? What decision will improve the odds of achieving those outcomes? Or, imagine that youre trying to decide whether or not to buy a home. As you consider the possibilities, think about the probability that each possible future will occur. Dont simply cling to the outcome youre hoping for. Be objective. If the odds of success seem reasonable, then pursue your desired course of action. But if they dont, then pull the plug. Duke writes: In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing. We are constantly deciding among alternative futures: one where we go to the movies, one where we go bowling, one where we stay home. Or futures where we take a job in Des Moines, stay at our current job, or take some time away from work. Whenever we make a choice, we are betting on a potential future. Every choice carries an opportunity cost. When you choose to save for the future, for instance, youre giving up pleasure in the present. Or, if you choose to spend in the present, youre giving up future financial freedom. Final Thoughts

For a long time, Ive argued that the best books about money are often not about money at all. Thinking in Bets is another example of this. While Duke uses plenty of personal finance examples, the book itself is about self-improvement. Its not a money manual. Yet the info here could have a profound impact on your financial future. Theres a lot more in this book that I havent covered in my review. (Ive really only touched on the first third of the material!) For me, the biggest takeaway comes early: Its vital to separate decision quality from results. The rest of the book explores how to improve the quality of your decisions. Among the strategies Duke advocates are these: Learn to examine your own beliefs. Be your own devils advocate. If youre certain about something, explore the opposing viewpoint. (If youre liberal, seek conservative opinions. If youre conservative, look for liberal voices.) Be skeptical of yourself and others.Build a network of trusted advisors, people who can give you feedback on your beliefs and decisions. But dont make these support groups homogeneous. Draw on people from a variety of backgrounds and belief systems. If you only associate with people who think the same way you do, you never give yourself a chance to grow, and youll never spot possible errors in your thinking. (This is like the current problems Facebook is facing with its deliberately-created echo chambers, which only serve to reinforce the way people think instead of challenging them.)When you make decisions, think of the future. Use barriers and pre-commitment to do the right thing automatically. Practice backcasting, a visualization method in which you define a desired outcome then figure out how you might get there. The book is dense dense! with ideas and information. When I finished it, I wanted to go back and read it again. Plus, I wanted to plow through the nearly 200 other works that Duke lists in her bibliography. I feel like I could spend an entire year diving deeper into this book and its related reading. But, as much as I wish it were, Thinking in Bets isnt perfect. A strong argument could be made that this material would work better as a TED talk or a 5000-word essay in The Atlantic (or on Get Rich Slowly!). The book is so packed with info that it sometimes loses its way. Theres also a lot of repetition too much repetition. Plus, it seems to lack a clear sense of organization. These quibbles aside, Thinking in Bets has earned a permanent place on my bookshelf. If I ever get around to putting together a Get Rich Slowly library (a project Ive been planning for years!), this book will be in it. I got a lot out of it. And I bet you will too. https://www.getrichslowly.org/smarter-decisions/