#WORST BB TRACK RECORD IN HISTORY

[mattberry]

you’re telling me bbinstagram Just posted quinn’s eviction interview

[darkkept]

👶 Would your muse be a good parent? Do they want to be a parent, if they are not already? (for every single muse on this blog. every single one. why can i ask such a large request? 1) i know what you're about, son. 2) i'm me and u love me : 3c) // @craterkissed​ // symbol meme. // accepting.

Aerith: I mean, canon shows that Aerith can be great with kids, which is something I appreciate the remake for showing. While she struggles with connecting with others, you see the sense of empathy inherent in being a Cetra through her interactions with Marlene, and it adds a nice layer to this otherwise standoffish and emotionally distant woman. That said... That isn’t necessarily maternal? She has no aspirations in that direction, at any rate. Her own childhood spat out someone who bucks at the idea of introducing a child to the world she’s been dragged through. She might settle for being the cool aunt for the children of loved ones, but refuses to have a child of her own or bring up one.

Aqua: She kind of already is? Like I think there’s a very real sense of her being very motherly and mature in spite of her youth, especially in her interactions with Ven and other youngsters in the narrative. She makes a good mother figure to them, even for all her personal flaws. In spite of that, she still has a lot of issues to work through, so while I think she would like to have a family of her own someday, it’s a long ways off and unlikely to happen before she has a handle on her own problems. She doesn’t want to be the kind of parent her own children have to heal from, like her own father figure was to her, however accidentally. 

Stray: There’s potential there to be a good mom, as she’s already largely taken that role for others in the past. However, that skill was largely born from age-inappropriate parentification, and stands in stark contrast to several of Stray’s other desires and goals. As a result, she’s largely ambivalent to the thought of motherhood, lacking both a partner and a clear future to consider the possibility with. She’s pretty young at the start of the narrative, and has plenty of time in the years to come to decide whether it’s something she’d be interested in pursuing with whoever she might marry. 

Braska: By all accounts, he was a great father. He stood loyally by Yuna  for her early childhood, encouraged her, did his best to make things safe and loving for his child who was going to face so much in life. I truly believe he was a wonderful father in contrast to Jecht -- but he was an imperfect man. He was willing to sacrifice it all to leave a legacy Yuna could be proud of, in the hopes she might live free of the fear and sorrow they had both faced in the wake of her mother’s death. The problem is, he dreamt up a solution that left Yuna lonelier than before. You can read his sacrifice a lot of ways, but it’s effect on his daughter was clear. He was a wonderful father, but he failed where it counted in some regards. 

Crowe: Like Aerith, Crowe would be most comfortable in the role of ‘cool aunt’ over being a mom. There is no love lost between Crowe and kids, who she largely regards as loud and annoying in the majority and halfway tolerable in the rare case one doesn’t earn her ire. She’s definitely down to be the badass rebellious honorary aunt to any children her friends might have, but without being really responsible for them or a good role model. Honestly Kleffy and I have a verse where she’s godmother to a tiny Galahdian namesake and it goes... Poorly. Big Crowe is the voice of impulse that Little Crowe is trying very hard to ignore. 

Eraqus: Just hit me with the hard ball questions, damn. So to preface this, I understand fandom has some STRONG opinions on Eraqus as a parent, and I disagree with both camps. He wasn’t some verbally or emotionally abusive pillar of stone who intentionally set his students up for failure. He also wasn’t some angelic and always right patriarch who did no wrong until Xehanort meddled in their little Paradise. I think he did his best, but was ignorant and had a lot of pride that put him at odds with what his students needed or were, but he tried to love them regardless. What we see in BBS is a worst case scenario in terms of his direct actions past a certain point, and while these do show his deep zealotry for light, I think it’s not totally fair to hold them up as what he was as a parent in general. His flaws lie more in how he put down darkness to Terra’s detriment, how he so coddled Ventus in spite of his want for a life like his friends had, and basically setting up Aqua to follow his path and past mistakes, not in a clearly difficult decision he made thinking the world would literally end otherwise. He was wrong to do what he wanted to do to Ven, but I think his problems as a parent aren’t reflected in that. I have a whole meta about this on my old blog I’ll have to rb because my feelings on Eraqus as a father are really long and complicated having mused both he and one of his kids.

Invi: Invi will be the first to admit she’s got no particular skill with children. She’s a stern leader and demands the best from her union, and shows some deeper understanding of how to communicate with the youths in Anguis, but without the soft moments that can make such a relationship meaningful or deeper. Even with her younger siblings, she tends to push them a little too far, and is downright competitive with them when it comes to having the Master’s time or attention. She lacks the patience or understanding for good parenting, and lacks any interest in being a mother. The most she might aim for is to take on a student of her own someday, but it’d be just that: a teacher and student relationship.

Isa: No. Isa does not delude himself about fatherhood. He has spent too long grappling with the emotional and mental scars his own angry father left behind to even consider becoming that to a child. He knows his temperament and track record do not paint an optimistic picture, or even a halfway decent one. He has no inclination towards the idea, and in fact balks at it. His history with Roxas and Xion alone show he is awful with children. Even allowing for changes as a Somebody, it just means he gains the self-awareness to look back on his actions and his own youth and say the cycle stops with him in totality.

Kokoro: I mean, the kid she’s helped raise the last ten years isn’t complaining. Despite occasional friction that comes with adolescence, Mads clearly adores her adoptive mom, and never really gripes about her as a mother, just a cryptic seeker of knowledge. Kokoro herself understands she can make a lot of mistakes in her life, but parenting cannot be one of them -- Not like her father made mistakes with her. While she’s struggled at times in suddenly being responsible for a complete stranger, Kokoro has overall enjoyed the experience of motherhood. I’d say of my lady muses, she is the most prepared for it, and would ultimately enjoy having more children in the future, whether by adoption as with Mads or trying for biochildren with a partner.

Roxas: He is a child. That said, in at least one far future setting my friends and I have, he’s a good Master to his students but clearly disinterested in being an actual dad. He can hardly handle himself some days, why would he ever want to be in charge of another living creature on top of that?

Steria: She has all the skills to be a good mom and the personality to be a really fun, reasonable kind of parent. Steria never really thought about these things when younger, despite expectations put upon her by certain arrangements in her life, but as she grew to adulthood... She was really excited to start a family of her own and give her kids all the time and love that was so touch and go in her own upbringing. When her daughter was born, she had every intention of giving her the world. The fact she never got to be the loving mother and shelter for Kokoro growing up is one of the cruelest parts of her death.

Drautos: This is... a many layered answer. I think he would be a good parent in that he would prepare any child for the world and teach them how to be a better person than he himself is. He would provide stability, comfort, and safety for a child. But when you look at his track record with his subordinates and his ultimate aims, it all falls apart. I could easily see him being a distant but exacting father who makes up for in opportunities what he lacks in warmth. It would be a mess. Thank God this man has no intention of raising children in a bubble like Lucis.

[jorja58144741646-blog]

Known Ways Music Affects The Mind

I really like pop music. J-pop is probably the hardest genre of Japanese music to categorize or describe. As is the case for "pop music" in the United States, a great deal of totally different sounds are likely to fall beneath this label. Numerous the bands tend to have a cutesy, "bubble-gum" pop sound whereas others are likely to exhibit a extra edgy dance, r&b, or funk sound. The teenager idols of Japan are just as big (if not larger) because the Britney Spears and Nsync's of the U.S. The members of bands comparable to Morning Musume, Tanpopo, Luna Sea, and Da Pump are worshiped as popular culture icons. The love for these icons is so nice that the loss of life of certain Japanese pop and rock stars in recent years reportedly devestated some younger fans so much that they took their own lives out of despair. In highschool, an in depth friend laid her hand on my shoulder and informed me that my style in music was just like that of a trashy, 12-yr-old girl who lived behind a mall. It used to truly be a supply of embarrassment for me, especially when I got here to NYU, which is basically populated by individuals who satisfaction themselves in having by no means heard the songs on pop radio (how anybody prevented hearing "See You Again" or "Uptown Funk" last yr, I am going to never know). But then I came to phrases with my taste in music, and now I realize that pop music is nowhere close to as dangerous as folks make it out to be.

Russians have all the time loved track contests, so it was no surprise that in 1977 the Soviet Union launched Intervision - a competition broadcast throughout the bloc and meant to rival Eurovision The primary winner was Helena Vondráčková 's Painted Jug - a song that sounds remarkably like an oompah band covering ABBA , showing there was little cultural divide between East and West back then. But the perfect thing about Intervision was its scoring system. If you happen to preferred a music, you turned all of your lights on, in keeping with Chris West's e-book Eurovision! A Historical past of Modern Europe Via the World's Best Track Contest. For those who hated a track, you turned all of your lights off. The winner was the one which precipitated the best electricity surge. The late 90s to early 2000s was when pop-punk completely hit the floor, becoming absolutely huge. Bands corresponding to Sum forty one, New Discovered Glory, and Simple Plan were among the many most performed artists on the radio, and Blink-182 was a serious success and extremely revered with their breakthrough album Enema of the State (1999). Even Avril Lavigne discovered success in the scene, often called the "pop-punk princess" (although lately, she's completely modified her sound and is not considered as such anymore, however it's acknowledged that at one point she was). It was round this time when the theme of friendship started to indicate up increasingly more ceaselessly, but not a lot as it will later on. K-pop is never artist generated. It is dreamed up in board rooms filled with dudes in fits who reek of garlic and soju. The songwriting is farmed out to individuals whose job it is to shit sugary gold. The casting call goes out and the teams are formed based on looks alone. Dancing will be taught; singing will be dubbed or auto-tuned. These children aren't artists, they're barely even performers. They're circus animals who do as they're instructed. Any hassle, any hint of insurrection, and it is the door, kid. The look of the music - particularly for the girls - is sexed-up, but in reality Ok-pop is as conservative because it will get. It dares not offend anybody, and in the process proves itself to be the unoriginal, uninspired, company produced SHIT that it is. Hosted by songwriter Ross Golan, who has penned hits for Ariana Grande, Selana Gomez, Flo Rida and Justin Bieber, And The Writer Is… is a podcast that is all about songwriters. Each episode, Golan, along with one visitor magicaudiotools.com songwriter, talk about what goes on behind the scenes within the music trade and the way each guest made their name in music. It is a candid, insightful and often very revealing look into the people behind the most important hits. Now in its third season, visitors previously have included Nick Jonas, Ryan Tedder, Julia Michaels and Justin Tranter.When asked which decade has the worst music, their responses fanned out in broadly chronological order, with the 2010s getting forty two% of the vote, the 2000s getting 15%, and the Nineteen Nineties, Nineteen Eighties and Seventies coming in pretty equally with 13%, 14% and 12%. This may lead an informal reader to conclude that the individuals polled were all of a sure age, however it appears to be an evenly held opinion. Of individuals aged 18-29, 39% voted for the 2010s, whereas the determine for the over 30s was forty three%, which signifies most of the fun is in digging up outdated songs, slightly than maintaining with the brand new.To the diploma that radio stations would concentrate on playing a certain type of music that appealed to a certain narrow demographic of listeners, the report labels and publishing corporations would oblige by intentionally in search of out and financing musicians who may create music tailored to the needs of those specific radio stations. Thus the assorted sub-genres of pop music, in all places on the earth, had been created in a type of feedback loop between broadcast radio and the file labels. Types and genres of pop music all the time changed and developed, but all the time in response to the market pressures of selling recordings and being profitable.The extra you listen to one thing, the extra tightly connected you might be to what's about to occur subsequent," she says. So you get immersed in it differently than you probably did the first time. You've got this sense of virtual participation, which is what individuals report once they try to describe a strong piece of music. They're going to discuss how the boundaries between themselves and the music seem to dissolve. So by listening to music again and again, you may accelerate that orientation to sound."Rockabilly" often (but not completely) refers to the kind of rock and roll music which was performed and recorded within the mid-Fifties primarily by white singers reminiscent of Elvis Presley , Carl Perkins , Johnny Money , and Jerry Lee Lewis , who drew primarily on the country roots of the music. fifty three fifty four Elvis Presley was vastly influenced and integrated his type of music with some of the greatest African American musicians like BB King, Chuck Berry and Fat Domino. His type of music mixed with black influences created controversy throughout a turbulent time in history however that didn't cease them from creating what we name Rock n Roll. fifty four Many different fashionable rock and roll singers of the time, akin to Fat Domino and Little Richard , fifty five came out of the black rhythm and blues tradition, making the music attractive to white audiences, and will not be often classed as "rockabilly".

[sundayera7-blog]

Zach Britton is Another Arm the Cubs Have Previously Targeted – How About Now?

This offseason figures to be one of the most high-priced and exciting free agent affairs in the league’s long history – and the Chicago Cubs could very well be at the heart of it all (LOL … that might not be true anymore). In any case, these players present possible fits for the Cubs, at a range of potential costs, positions, and talent levels.

Previously: Bryce Harper, Andrew Miller

Potential Target: Zach Britton, Age 30

Performance in 2018

Zach Britton’s overall performance in 2018 is a bit of a tough nut to crack. After making his debut following a recovery from an Achilles injury, he got pretty solid results, but had some obviously ugly peripherals, some lucky bounces, and some bad luck with homers.

The offseason injury is the reason for the low inning total, but I don’t think he can use that to explain his underlying performance (or at least, it would be a red flag to do so). Because while the ERA looks solid, his FIP paints a much different picture, particularly as it relates to balls and strikes.

In 2018, Britton’s 20.1% strikeout rate was technically above his career average (19.9%), but it was nowhere near the levels he put up in 2014-2016 when he first moved to the bullpen, and his 12.4% walk rate was the worst mark of his career. Given how much frustration Cubs fans have had with wild relievers during the past two seasons, that alone might justifiably scare some people off.

Less scary, but still concerning: his usually *elite* contact management disappeared last season, as he began drifting somewhat closer to the league averages. He was still solidly better than most in this department, mind you, but he just wasn’t elite, like he had been in the past.

The one way he definitely DID NOT disappoint in 2018, however, was his ground ball rate. That 73.0% mark might be a little lower than the numbers he posted in his best seasons, but oh boy is it still really, really good. In fact, he led the league in ground ball rate among relievers with at least 40 IP. For context, if you’re putting up a 50+% ground ball rate, that’s dang good.

The bad news, however, is that it looks to me like he earned the drop in strand rate thanks to his worsening K/BB ratio, but didn’t necessarily earn the HUGE drop in BABIP (.241 last season, .287 for his career) thanks to an uptick in hard contact.

I will say, however, that even accounting for the extra hard contact, Britton probably didn’t deserve an apparently flukey 25.0% HR/FB ratio. That’s the third highest rate in baseball this season, despite the fact that his hard-contact ranked among the top-30. I’d expect some huge positive regression in that department next season. I wish I had a stronger narrative thread here, but the truth remains: his season is/was difficult to evaluate on the numbers, alone.

Performance Before 2018

Interestingly, a lot of what I just stated can be applied – in broad strokes – to his 2017 season, too. That year, Britton was also limited by injuries, but delivered some solid results (2.89 ERA) with lagging peripherals (3.40), headlined by a low strikeout rate (18.0%) and an uncharacteristically high walk rate (11.2%). BUT BEFORE THAT … he was lights out.

Britton, like other lefty Cubs target Andrew Miller, has recently been one of the most elite relievers in baseball. From 2014-2016, he was among the top-10 in innings pitched (209.0), WAR (5.6), and batting average against (.153), while leading in ground ball rate (77.9%), soft contact (31.9%), and hard contact (18.5%).

He was second in ERA (1.38), tucked between two former Cubs closers, Wade Davis and Aroldis Chapman, who was, himself, just barely ahead of Andrew Miller.

Indeed, Britton and Miller have a lot in common – former left-handed relief aces, converted from starters, whose elite status has waned in the last year or so thanks, in part, to some unexpected injuries – but they offer two completely different approaches to the game. Miller is more of a strikeout artist and Britton is more of a contact manager. Think … Yu Darvish vs. Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs may very well be interested in both guys (they clearly have been in the past), but it would have to be for different reasons.

Also of random note: Britton finished FOURTH in the Cy Young voting back in 2016.

Projection for 2019 and Beyond

Projecting Britton seems, to me, an even tougher task than most. He’s still quite young and not that far removed from being at the top of his game. On one hand, you could say the injuries are behind him so he should be ready to resume his excellence, while on the other hand you might wonder whether the damage has already been done (or maybe he’s simply past his prime).

Weirdly, Steamer is projecting only 25.0 innings for Britton next season, but they appear to be quality innings in nature: 3.01 ERA (3.24 FIP). I’m willing to bet he pitches more than 25.0 innings in 2018, but we’ll get into his injury stuff in just a moment.

(Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Possible Contract/Existing Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors: 3 years, $33M FanGraphs: 3 years, $30-36M Jon Heyman: 4 years, $60M His Expert: 4 years, $56M

The Cubs would be among many, many teams interested in Britton, and have been attached to him for a good long while, including once already this offseason.

It’s worth noting that the Cubs reportedly tried to trade for Britton during the 2017 season and again during the offseason before the 2018 season. Clearly they like something about him (I’m guessing it’s the fact that he’s a contact manager (they always go after those guys)), so keep that in mind.

Other Considerations/Injuries

In 2012, Britton was placed on the 60-Day DL with a left-shoulder impingement.

More recently: In April of 2017, Britton was placed on the 10-day DL with left forearm tightness. He was eventually activated on May 2, but was right back on the DL a few days later thanks to re-aggravating the same injury. Then, in the offseason, he ruptured his Achilles tendon, failing to debut with the Orioles until June 12th.

Because he was traded to the Yankees mid-season, he was not eligible for a qualifying offer, and, thus, will not cost his new team any draft picks upon signing.

When he moved to the Yankees around the mid-season mark, Britton’s ERA dropped even lower (2.88) but his FIP remained elevated (4.08). Of course, that’s something you would see from a good contact-manager.

Fit for Cubs

With all of this said, if Britton requires four years and over $50 million (as Heyman and his expert are anticipating) I can’t see how the Cubs would be justified in that expenditure. Sure, he was elite back in 2016, still has promise, is young for a free agent, and might have been held back by some injuries, but those injuries and all the time missed scares me.

If he winds up in the 2-3 year, $24-$32M range, I think the Cubs would be wise to pursue him, but even then, I still have some concerns (and questions about how and where they’re spending their money). The Cubs have plenty of injury-related questions in their bullpen as it is.

But we can’t ignore the obvious: the Cubs are searching for left-handed power pitchers this winter and Britton was averaging 95.6 MPH from the left-side last year. We also know he was twice a target of the Cubs in the past, as recently as last December and that he has a track record of truly elite success. But we also also know that the Cubs are looking for relief help against left-handed hitters, in particular, not simply left-handed relievers.

That’s noteworthy, because last season, Britton was actually far tougher on righties (.263 wOBA) than lefties (.313 wOBA) – and the year prior he was basically split neutral. At the same time, it’s not like that’s disqualifying whatsoever.

I don’t mean to come off as down or unsure on Britton as I think I am – I genuinely believe he’d be a great addition to this team – I’m just concerned the pedigree and number of interested parties might drive his price up to uncomfortable levels, especially if the Cubs are financially limited.

Source: https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/11/13/zach-britton-is-another-arm-the-cubs-have-previously-targeted-how-about-now/

[placetobenation]

On the same day 25 years ago, Greg Maddux threw a 94 pitch complete game shutout in Colorado against the Rockies to lower his ERA to 1.56, while Tony Gwynn had 3 hits in Houston to raise his average to .394 with 45 games remaining. It was August 11, 1994 and the longstanding war between MLB owners and the Players Association would go nuclear very soon, with a players strike starting the next day wiping out the remainder of the 1994 regular season, playoffs, and 252 games the following year. The game once called America’s Pastime was tarnished.

Because it was the players striking for the 5thtime since 1972, much of the blame fell on them in the public narrative, with owners receiving criticism but not nearly as much as the players and Union president Donald Fehr. 

The earliest labor disputes in baseball after the formation of the MLBPA in 1966 centered around minimum salaries, arbitration rights, and funding of pensions for retired players, the latter of which was the main issue in the 1972 strike that cancelled 86 games. The nullification of the reserve clause in December 1975 in the��Seitz decision led to the advent of free agency, and increasingly hostile labor negotiations.

The next ten years passed with four work stoppages (three strikes and one lockout) mainly relating to free agency compensation rules and salary arbitration rights. The owners sought to impose a free agent system with heavier compensation to drive down salaries while the players fought for a free market approach. 

Under the guidance of MLB commissioner Peter Ueberroth for three years starting after the 1985 season, owners refrained from making lucrative offers to free agents from other teams, depressing the market for those players. As an example future Hall of Famer Tim Raines became a free agent after the 1986 season at age 27, but returned to the Montreal Expos on May 1, 1987 after getting no offers as a free agent. The union filed a collusion grievance against the owners each year, and players were eventually awarded $280 million in damages, but any trust that existed between players and ownership evaporated with the rounds of collusion. (Note: Per the collective bargaining agreement, “clubs are not allowed to concert with other clubs and players are not allowed to act in concert with other players”)

Owners forced out commissioner (and ownership critic) Fay Vincent in 1992 and installed Milwaukee Brewers owner Bud Selig as acting commissioner for the coming labor war, one that would see the owners demand a salary cap similar to what the NBA had and what the NFL had implemented in their most recent bargaining talks.

In June, the owners offered a salary cap with a 50/50 split of revenues. But put yourself in the position of the players: why would you trust the owners when they had just been caught cheating your side out of millions of dollars? The players were forced into a strike because they could not have a good faith negotiation given the history involved, and the owners were threatening to declare an impasse and implement their own system with a salary cap, which they did several months into the strike.

It is also hard to empathize with owners who talked of using replacement players before a strike date was even set. The following spring training saw replacement player games before a court injunction led to a return of the regular players for an abbreviated 1995 season. Replacements would have led to two teams not fielding teams: the Toronto Blue Jays were prohibited from using replacement players due to Ontario labor law, and the Baltimore Orioles refused to field a team because owner Peter Angelos was a highly-regarded labor lawyer.

Discussion of these labor issues in Major League Baseball isn’t much fun but trying to project how the rest of the 1994 season would have played out might be, with apologies to the rightfully upset Montreal Expos fans. Let’s assume that the MLBPA called off the strike in exchange for assurances of no lockout in 1995 or declaration of an impasse in negotiations by the owners.

AL East

There was a changing of the guard in the division with the two-time defending World Series champion Toronto Blue Jays taking a big step back with a 33-46 start. They won 22 of their last 36 games but that wasn’t enough to catch the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles in the division. The Yanks (70-43) held a 6.5 games lead over the O’s (63-49) on the strength of a career year from AL batting champ Paul O’Neill (.359/.460/.603) and a resurgent year from Wade Boggs (.342/.433/.489), who had his best power year since 1987. 

This was a very different Yankees team than the group that would dominate the AL East for the next decade: no Jeter, no Pettitte, no Rivera, and no Posada. They got 19 homers from Seinfeld guest star Danny Tartabull, over 300 innings between Jim Abbott and Melido Perez, and the back end of the bullpen was anchored by Bob Wickman and Steve Howe. All would be gone before the 1996 World Series.

Cal Ripken was the constant for the Orioles, as his streak stood at 2,009 consecutive games at the time of the strike, with Mike Mussina anchoring the rotation and Lee Smith in the bullpen. Their fate likely would be decided by the 15 remaining games against fellow wild card contenders Kansas City, Chicago, and Cleveland. Prior to the strike they did get a boost from = Armando Benitez, who gave up 1 run in 10 innings after his late July call-up.

The rebuilding Red Sox started 20-7 before collapsing to finish 54-61, and the Tigers both scored and gave up a ton of runs to ensure mediocrity.

Result: Yankees cruise to a division title with 95-100 wins, while a 87-90 win Baltimore team falls short of the wild card.

AL Central

This division was by far the best in baseball in 1994, with three playoff contenders and no teams on a track to lose more than 90 games. The defending division champion Chicago White Sox led the way, followed by a rising Cleveland team in its shiny new Jacobs Field, and a sneaky good team in Kansas City. An intense rivalry built between the White Sox and Indians centered about the Albert Belle corked bat controversy.

Frank Thomas won the MVP with Ted Williams-esque numbers (.353/.487/.729, with 109 BBs, 38 HR, 101 RBI in 113 games) but their strength was their starting rotation of reigning Cy Young winner Jack McDowell, veterans Alex Fernandez and Wilson Alvarez, and young Jason Bere all with ERAs under 4.00 with over 140 IP. 

That pitching would be needed against a Cleveland club on pace to score nearly 1,000 runs over a full season. Their regular lineup boasted 7 players with an OPS+ at 106 or higher including young Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. The starting rotation led the league with 17 complete games, perhaps a necessity with the bullpen being the clear weakness of the team. Cleveland still had 30 home games left to play, and they were 35-16 at Jacobs Field in its inaugural season.

Kansas City is something of a surprise contender because they would not even finish .500 again for another 9 years. David Cone won the Cy Young and led the team in WAR in the 2nd season of his second stint with his hometown team, while Tom Gordon and Kevin Appier were 2ndand 3rdin WAR for the Royals. With the retirement of George Brett, the lineup was below average, with only Wally Joyner and one-hit wonder Bob Hamelin carrying the load.

Result: The White Sox barely hang on with 95 wins and hold off Cleveland (94 wins), who pick up the wild card. Kansas City finishes 3rdwith 85-87 wins. 

AL West

This is the opposite of Garrison Keillor’s fictional Lake Wobegon, the place where all the women are string, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average. The American League West was more like Camp Crystal Lake from Friday The 13thin 1994 with the four worst records in the 14 team league. 

Texas “led” the way at 52-62, on pace for 74 wins in a full season. Their lineup looks fit for 2019 with lots of home runs and even more strikeouts. Jose Canseco hit 31 homers in a strong comeback from an abbreviated season where a fly ball hit him in the headand a pitching performanceled to Tommy John surgery. Kenny Rogers did toss a perfect game, and they also had a young Darren Oliver who hung around long enough to actually pitch in a World Series for Texas. While their new stadium (which closes in 2019!) did not bring the same success as it did for Cleveland, it did embolden their ownerto seek political office. 

Oakland was a game back, but lost Mark McGwire to a foot injury at various points of the season. Steve Ontiveros became a footnote in history as one of the most obscure ERA champions in history with a 2.65, and Rickey Henderson returned from Toronto for his 3rdstint in the East Bay. The A’s had stretch losing 31 of 37, followed by winning 19 of 23. 

In mid-July, four ceiling tiles fell from the Seattle Kingdome’s roofwhich led to the Mariners finishing the year on the road, so the strike saved them from what would have become a 70 game road trip. While their best players like Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner, and Randy Johnson excelled, the rest of the team was about as functional as their home stadium. The July call-up of 18 year old Alex Rodriguez did not last long and he was sent back to the minors after 6 errors and 0 extra base hits in 13 games.

The California Angels also saw their home stadium damaged in the Northridge earthquake in January, repairs were made prior to their season. The Halos had little going for them, with the exception of a bizarre outlier season from 33 year old 3B Spike Owen, who posted a .418 OBP in 321 plate appearances, nearly 100 points above his lifetime OBP.

Result: Seattle tires from playing 2 ½ months on the road, and Oakland edges Texas and saves MLB from the embarrassment of a sub-.500 playoff team by winning the division with a record of 81-81.

NL East

With the Marlins and Mets rebuilding and the Phillies backsliding after their ’93 NL pennant, the NL East was a two horse race between the Expos and division newcomer Braves, since Atlanta was strangely in the NL West previously.

Montreal had the best team in franchise history with the top outfield in the NL of Moises Alou, Marquis Grissom, and Larry Walker. All the regulars in the Expos lineup were just entering their prime, as the oldest player was 3B Sean Berry at 28 years old. Of the top 4 starting pitchers, young Pedro Martinez had the highest ERA at 3.42. The bullpen 1-2 punch of John Wetteland and Mel Rojas was a factor in their 21-14 record in one run games, in contrast to the Phillies and their 12-26 mark in such contests. 

With a wild card spot in play, the Braves would not have to win at the same breakneck pace as the prior year in their race with the Giants in West. They would be able to ride their quartet of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Steve Avery to a playoff berth and take their chances with their always questionable bullpen in a short series.

Result: Montreal keeps their foot on the gas and finishes with 105 wins, while the Braves cruise to 97 wins and a wild card spot locked up with over a week left in the season,

NL Central

The outlook was not positive for the Houston Astros despite being in a virtual tie with the Cincinnati Reds because of MVP 1B Jeff Bagwell suffering a season-ending broken wrist two days before the strike. With Chris Donnels and Sid Bream backing up, there would be a massive dropoff from the 213 OPS+ the future Hall of Famer provided. 

Cincinnati had a well-rounded lineup, placing 4thor higher in all key offensive categories as a team. Underrated big game pitcher Jose Rijo led the starting rotation, and there were not any notable trainwrecks in the Reds bullpen, positioning them well for their first playoff run in four years.

The Pirates were still recovering from the loss of Barry Bonds after the 1992 season, the Cubs got a 3 HR gamefrom Karl “Tuffy” Rhodes on opening day (a game they lost 12-8 anyway), and the Cardinals did almost nothing of note the entire season.

Result: Cincinnati rolls to 96 wins and the division, while Houston falls back and finishes with 89 wins. 

NL West

With realignment and the departure of Atlanta to its rightful spot in the East, the Dodgers and Giants battled for control, while the Padres and 2ndyear expansion Rockies continued to build.

Coming off a 103 win season, the Giants got almost no contributions from anyone in their lineup not named Barry Bonds or Matt Williams. The latter was famously on pace to chase Roger Maris’ then single-season record of 61 HR, but Bonds had 37 HR of his own to go with 29 SBs so he was on his way to the 2nd40-40 season in MLB history. Darryl Strawberry arrived in July and provided some pop, but would find himself under indictment for federal income tax evasion before 1994 ended. 

The pitching staff kept them competitive, but who knows if William VanLandingham and company could keep fooling hitters for another 7 weeks. San Francisco did win 20 of their last 30 which included a four game sweep of the Expos in Montreal.

The Dodgers held a 3.5 game lead, but still had six more games with Atlanta, against whom they were 0-6 to that point. Mike Piazza followed his Rookie of the Year campaign with another strong year, but Los Angeles got two outlier seasons from a couple of grizzled veterans. Tim Wallach (age 36) and Brett Butler (age 37) both set career highs in OPS, perhaps a signal that baseball was evolving into an era of inflated offensive numbers. Raul Mondesi became the 3rdstraight Dodger to win Rookie of the Year.

San Diego was rebuilding after their fire sale trades of Fred McGriff and Gary Sheffield the year before, but the story was of Tony Gwynn and his quest to hit .400. With 45 games remaining, he was on pace to have 171 more at bats based on his total to that point if he played every game, requiring him to get 71 hits in that time to finish with a .400 average. In his final 171 ABs of the ’94 season, Gwynn had 69 hits so it is far more likely that Gwynn finishes in the same range as Ted Williams in 1957 (.388) and 1980 George Brett (.390).

Colorado improved from their inaugural season and were about to move out of cavernous Mile High Stadium and into Coors Field. The strike cost them a chance to set a new single season attendance record, but the 1994 Rockies still have the highest average home attendance (57,570 per game) of any team in MLB history.

Result: The Giants claw their way back and finish tied with the Dodgers with 86 wins, leading to a one game playoff for the division, won by the Giants avenging the Dodgers eliminating them in game 162 a year earlier.

Playoffs

The original wild card playoff formatwas different and in many ways made no sense with the wild card team assigned to play a specific division winner rather than the team with the best record. The NL West champion would play the wild card, and the AL Central champion would play the AL Wild Card unless the two teams were in the same division.

ALDS1: Cleveland over NY Yankees (3-1) – The Yankees end up falling behind in the series early when manager Buck Showalter forgets that he can use his best relief pitcher on the road in a tie game in extra innings.

ALDS2: Chicago over Oakland (3-0) – The White Sox win their first playoff series in 77 years

NLDS1: Atlanta over San Francisco (3-0) – The Braves went 21-2 in NLDS play from 1995 to 2001 and this season would have been no different.

NLDS2: Montreal over Cincinnati (3-2) – Buoyed by raucous sellout crowds of hockey-starved Quebecers (due to the ongoing NHL lockout) for games 3-5 after falling down 0-2, the Expos come back and win three straight to advance to the NLCS for the first time since 1981.

ALCS: Chicago over Cleveland (4-2) – This series is mostly remembered for an incident in game 5 where young absent-minded baserunner Manny Ramirez forgot to run to 2ndbase on a would-be walkoff single in the 10th, keeping the game tied and allowing the White Sox to win in 12 innings in an incident forever known as “Manny’s Boner”. 

NLCS: Montreal over Atlanta (4-2) – After losing the first two games at home, the Expos rally to win four straight after another unfortunate national anthem incident at game 3 in Atlanta where the Canadian flag was flown upside down….again. 

World Series: Montreal over Chicago (4-2) – A costly error in game 6 by Julio Franco, playing 2ndbase in place of Joey Cora due to the lack of the DH, leads to a 5 run Montreal 3rdinning in the clincher. Canadian Larry Walker wins series MVP as the Expos become the third straight World Series winner from Canada. 

[thegloober]

Yankeemetrics: It is high, it is far, it is … see ya 2018

RAB Live Chat

I want to thank everyone for being such great followers, fans and readers during this unforgettable record-breaking season. Hope you enjoyed all the smart stats, #FunFacts, Obscure Yankeemetrics and other interesting numbers. Let’s Go Yankees.

(Getty)

It’s Just Not Happ-ening In the first-ever Division Series matchup between 100-win teams, the 108-win Red Sox took the series opener, 5-4.

It was another frustrating and winnable game for the Yankees, who struck out 13 times and left 10 men on base in the one-run loss. This was the ninth time in franchise history the Yankees lost a nine-inning postseason game by a run while stranding at least 10 baserunners — and the first time ever they also struck out more than 10 times in the game.

J.A. Happ, who had been so brilliant against Boston this season (1.99 ERA in four starts) and during his entire career (2.98 ERA in 21 games), was pounded early and pulled in the third inning without recording an out, getting charged with five runs on four hits. He is the first Yankee starter in the postseason to allow at least five runs and while pitching no more than two innings since A.J. Burnett in Game 5 of the 2009 World Series against the Phillies. Before Happ, no other pitcher in franchise history had done that in the opening game of a playoff series.

The Yankee chipped away at their early 5-0 deficit but their rally fell just short as Aaron Judge’s solo homer to lead off the ninth inning was followed by three straight strikeouts to end the game. The home run was a significant one for Judge, his sixth in 15 career postseason games. The only Yankee to hit more dingers in their first 15 playoff games was Bernie Williams (7).

Giancarlo Stanton was part of the strikeout parade in the ninth inning, and finished with four whiffs in the game. A Stantonian #NotFunFact to chew on: He is the only cleanup hitter in franchise history to strike out four or more times in a postseason game.

(AP)

The Kracken Erupts The Yankees rebounded from Game 1’s bitter loss with a fired-up, fist-pumping win on Saturday night to even the series at 1-1.

They probably couldn’t have been in a better situational spot to steal a game at Fenway, facing David Price, a perennial Yankees punching bag with a historically terrible postseason resume. And both those narratives played out perfectly for the Yankees. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez both crushed home runs while Andrew McCutchen chipped in with a booming RBI single, before Price got the hook and was booed off the mound in the second inning. The final damage for Mr. Price: 1 2/3 innings, 3 runs, 3 hits, 2 homers, 2 walks, 0 strikeouts.

David Price vs Yankees This Season:

17.1 IP 23 Runs 24 Hits 11 HR 11 BB

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) October 7, 2018

Price has now made 10 starts in the postseason and his team has lost all 10 of them. That is the longest postseason streak of team games lost in a player’s starts in MLB history.

Okay, back to the Bombers. Judge’s first-inning solo homer was his third in three games this postseason. He is the second Yankee to go deep in each of the team’s first three games to start a postseason, along with Hank Bauer in the 1958 World Series. And he also joined Bernie Williams (2001, 1996), Reggie Jackson (1977) and Bauer as the only Yankee outfielders to homer in three postseason games in a row.

(New York Times)

Sanchez’s dinger off Price was probably the least shocking part of Saturday’s game. His brief history against the lefty speaks for itself:

18 plate appearances

7 hits

6 home runs

4 walks

But Price wasn’t the only Red Sox pitcher that got schooled by Sanchez on Saturday. He pulverized an Eduardo Rodriguez fastball literally out of the ballpark. With a projected distance of 479 feet, it is the longest hit at Fenway since Statcast tracking began in 2015 and the second-longest hit in the postseason at any park over the last four years.

With his two homers, he entered into some purdy good company. He and Yogi Berra (1956 World Series Game 7) are the only Yankee catchers with a multi-homer game in the playoffs. And, at the age of 25 years and 308 days, he is the youngest catcher to homer twice in a game in MLB postseason history.

Masahiro Tanaka bounced back from a couple bad starts to the end the season with another postseason gem, giving up one run — via the #obligatoryhomer — in five innings. He now owns a 1.50 playoff ERA, the fifth-lowest by any pitcher with at least five playoff starts.

Lowest Postseason ERA (min. 5 Starts) ERA Games Sandy Koufax 0.95 8 Christy Mathewson 0.97 11 Eddie Plank 1.32 7 Bill Hallahan 1.36 7 Masahiro Tanaka 1.50 5

Nightmare on River Avenue There really are no words that can capture the utter humiliation, indescribable embarrassment and overwhelming atrocity that was Game 3 in the Bronx on Monday night. Mike did an excellent job summing up the terrible managerial mistakes from the 16-1 loss, I’ll just present here the cold hard ugly facts.

15-run loss is the largest margin of defeat in postseason game in franchise history

It is also the most lopsided loss for any team in a postseason game at home

16 runs allowed are the most ever by a Yankee team in a postseason game

16 runs allowed are the most ever in postseason game for any team that gave up no more than one homer

Austin Romine is first catcher in MLB history to pitch in a postseason game; the only other position player to do it was Blue Jays infielder Cliff Pennington in the 2015 ALCS Game 5 against the Royals

Summing up the pitching mess … Yankees are first team in Major-League history to give up at least 16 runs, 18 hits and eight walks in a postseason game

And mercifully, we close this section with our #NotFunFact of the series, awarded to Luis Severino:

Luis Severino: 1st pitcher in Yankees history to allow 6+ Runs and 7+ Hits in an outing of 3 IP or fewer in postseason game at Yankee Stadium.

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) October 9, 2018

End of the Chase For 28 It’s a game of inches, and the Yankees were just a few short in Tuesday night’s 4-3 loss. Folks, I hope you’re sitting down for this series-ending Obscure Yankeemetric … It was the 14th time the Yankees have been eliminated from the postseason at home, but the first time it happened in a one-run game at the Stadium with the winning run on base when the game ended. Welp.

(Newsday)

For the second straight night, Yankees found themselves in early hole, after CC Sabathia allowed three runs in the first three innings, a rare mediocre outing for him given his postseason track record in the Bronx. This was his eighth playoff start at home as a Yankee, and the first one that he gave up more than two runs. His 1.61 ERA in his previous seven home postseason starts was the second-best by any Yankee (min. 4 starts).

Zach Britton coughed up the fourth run via a 338-foot homer by Christian Vazquez that barely cleared the short porch in right field. It was the first homer Britton has allowed to a No. 9 batter in his career. And, according to ESPN’s home run tracking system, it would not have been a home run at any of the other 29 ballparks. A true ‘Yankee Stadium Special’, served up at the worst possible moment:

Shortest HR at Yankee Stadium This Season:

326 ft (Yoenis Cespedes, Jul 20) 338 (Christian Vazquez, Oct 9) 338 (Juan Soto, Jun 13)

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) October 10, 2018

In a season where #toomanyhomers was a nightly trend on Yankees twitter, the team failed to go deep in the fateful final two games. The only other time this season the Bombers were homerless in back-to-back games in the Bronx was April 7 and 8 against the Orioles, the fifth and sixth home games of the season. That’s baseball, Suzyn.

RAB Live Chat

Source: https://bloghyped.com/yankeemetrics-it-is-high-it-is-far-it-is-see-ya-2018/

[thornburgrealty]

Player of heart year potential people

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[usatrendingsports]

Boring hot stove could’ve been stellar if these 18 players hadn’t signed extensions

The calendar will soon flip over to 2018, and so far only six of our top 20 free agents have signed. It has been a slow-moving offseason for sure. I blame it on a generally underwhelming free agent class and big market teams like the Yankees and Dodgers trimming payroll. It is what it is.

Why is this free agent class underwhelming? Because so many players sign long-term contract extensions early in their career, pushing back their free agency. They trade their maximum earning potential (through arbitration and free agency) for financial security earlier in their career. I don’t blame them one bit. I’d do the same thing.

It takes six full years of service time to quality for free agency, though given the way teams manipulate service time these days, it often takes closer to seven years. Kris Bryant, for example, will end up playing six full seasons and two weeks short of a seventh full season before becoming a free agent thanks to the way the Cubs kept him in the minors to start 2015.

There are 18 players around the league who reached six years of service time in 2017, but did not become a free agent this offseason because they signed early career extensions. Because we like ranking things, here is a wholly subjective ranking of those 18 players, who would have undoubtedly spiced up the offseason had they not signed extensions.

1. Mike Trout

CF / Angels

Contract: Six years, $144.5 million (Signed March 2014)

The best player in the world would have hit the open market this winter had the Angels not shoveled a record-breaking extension in front of him a few years ago. We haven’t seen a free agent like Mike Trout since Alex Rodriguez way back in the day. I’m talking about an MVP caliber producer — Trout hit .306/.442/.629 with 33 home runs around his thumb injury this past season — at an up-the-middle position in his mid-20s. Trout is still only 26. His free agent contract this winter would’ve crushed baseball current record contract, which is Giancarlo Stanton’s massive 13-year, $325 million deal.

Baseball’s best player could’ve become a free agent this offseason. USATSI

What would he have received this offseason? Even as quiet as this offseason has been, I think Trout would’ve landed a monster contract worth $40 million annually across 10 years, possibly even more years with opt-outs throw-in. This isn’t a situation where Trout would’ve beat Stanton’s contract by a few million. He would have shattered that record, like A-Rod did back in the day. Here’s a longer look at Trout’s would-be free agency.

2. Jose Altuve

2B / Astros

Contract: Four years, $12.5 million with two club options (Signed July 2013)

Astros second baseman Jose Altuve is the reigning AL MVP and a World Series champion, as well as a three-time batting champion and the league leader in hits four years running. He hit .346/.410/.547 with 24 home runs and 32 stolen bases in 2017, then added seven more home runs in the postseason. Trout is still our topped ranking would-be free agent because he’s so good and so young, but Altuve is only 27 himself and it’s hard to have a better walk year than he just did.

What would he have received this offseason? Robinson Cano’s 10-year, $240 million deal with the Mariners seems like the benchmark here. However, Cano signed that contract at age 31. Altuve is only 27. And as good as Cano was in the years leading up to his free agency, he did not win an MVP or any batting titles. Teams would probably approach Altuve with a Cano offer hoping he’d accept. Elite players are getting $30 million per year nowadays, so I think Altuve’s 10-year contract would top $300 million. He is so underpaid right now it’s ridiculous.

3. Paul Goldschmidt

1B / Diamondbacks

Contract: Five years, $32 million with one club option (Signed March 2013)

Few players in baseball have been as consistently excellent as Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt the last few years. He hit .297/.404/.563 with 36 home runs in 2017, earning him his third top three finish in the NL MVP voting and his fifth consecutive +4 WAR season. Goldschmidt, Trout, Buster Posey, Josh Donaldson, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer are the only players with +4 WAR in each of the last five seasons.

What would he have received this offseason? What a player is worth and what a player signs for a free agent are not always the same thing. Free agency has not been kind to first basemen in recent years, though it’s been a very long time since an all-around first baseman as good as Goldschmidt hit the market. Not since Mark Teixeira following the 2008 season. Goldschmidt turned 30 in September while Teixeira signed his eight-year, $180 million contract at age 28, so maybe that’s not the best benchmark. Then again, we have nearly 10 years of inflation to account for. Goldschmidt is easily a $25 million a year player, probably closer to $30 million a year, and getting six guaranteed wouldn’t have been out of the question. He would have had Red Sox written all over him in free agency.

4. Carlos Carrasco

SP / Indians

Contract: Four years, $22 million with two club options (Signed April 2015)

Does everyone realize how good Carlos Carrasco is? I feel like not enough people realize how good Carlos Carrasco is. Perhaps that’s because he’s stuck playing second fiddle to Corey Kluber with the Indians. Check out Carrasco’s numbers the last two seasons compared to those of Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish, the top two free agent starters on the market this winter:

Age

IP

ERA

ERA+

K/9

BB/9

GB%

WAR

Arrieta

31

365 2/3

3.30

129

8.7

3.2

49.0

+5.2

Darvish

31

287

3.70

123

10.7

2.8

40.6

+6.5

Carrasco

30

346 1/3

3.30

138

9.8

2.1

46.7

+9.0

Carrasco has been every bit as good as Arrieta and Darvish the last two seasons, if not better, and he’s a few months younger than them as well. All three pitchers have a history of arm problems, so that won’t serve as the great separator in free agency. Point is, Carrasco is excellent, and he would have been an extremely hot commodity as a free agent this winter.

What would he have received this offseason? Johnny Cueto’s six-year, $130 million contract immediately jumped to mind. Cueto was about the same age as Carrasco is right now when he hit free agency, and remember he had some elbow woes in his walk year that complicated his free agency. Carrasco wouldn’t get $30 million a year like recent elite free agent pitchers (David Price, Zack Greinke, etc.), though he’d do better than guys like Jeff Samardzija (five years, $90 million) and Ian Kennedy (five years, $70 million).

Salvador Perez was the one Royals core position player who did not become a free agent this offseason. That’s because he signed a super team friendly extension right after breaking into the big leagues, then signed a slightly less team friendly extension a few years after that. Perez is pretty divisive. His supporters see a true field general and team leader. His detractors see a .268/.297/.495 batting line and questionable defensive metrics. I feel Perez, maybe moreso than any other catcher in baseball, would benefit from a “works with pitchers” stat. Get on it, stat people.

What would he have received this offseason? Perez is only 27, he has a reputation for being a leader, and he’s swatted 20-plus homers for three years running now. Quality catching is very hard to find too. The five-year contracts signed by Brian McCann ($85 million) and Russell Martin ($82 million) feel like Perez’s floor to me. Because he is still so young, I don’t think a seven-year contract would have been out of the question had Perez become a free agent this winter.

6. Danny Duffy

SP / Royals

Contract: Five years, $65 million (Signed January 2017)

Had Danny Duffy and Perez become free agents this offseason as scheduled, the Royals would’ve been faced with losing all of their core players in one offseason. It would have been ugly. Fortunately, both signed long-term extensions. Duffy has had some problems staying healthy in his career — he threw a career high 179 2/3 innings in 2016, the only time he reached 150 innings in his career — but a 29-year-old southpaw with a bulldog mentality and a history of missing bats would’ve been in demand this offseason.

What would he have received this offseason? Jordan Zimmermann inked a five-year contract worth $110 million at Duffy’s age a few years ago, so I think that’s the benchmark. Both Zimmermann and Duffy had Tommy John surgery in their history. Then again, Zimmermann’s contract has been nothing short of a disaster, so perhaps he’s a cautionary tale and would have had teams bidding more carefully for Duffy.

Free agency would have been poorly timed for Brandon Crawford, who hit .253/.305/.403 with 14 home runs in 2017, making it his worst offensive season in several years. I think Crawford’s track record, his Gold Glove caliber defense, the fact he was a key member of the Giants’ last two title teams, and a thin free agent shortstop class — Zack Cozart was the only free agent shortstop who could hold a candle to Crawford — would have netted him a nice contract anyway.

What would he have received this offseason? Gosh, it’s really hard to say. I think Crawford would have beat Cozart’s three-year, $38 million contract with the Angels because he has a longer track record and is 18 months younger. There are four years and $60 million remaining on Crawford’s extension. How about that for an expected free agent contract? Sounds good to me.

8. Kyle Seager

3B / Mariners

Contract: Seven years, $100 million with one club option (Signed December 2014)

The inferior Seager brother (sorry, Kyle) is coming off a .249/.323/.450 batting line with 27 home runs in 2017, making it his worst offensive season in several years. Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager is still a top notch defender though, and he’s made real progress handling southpaws in recent years, plus he just turned 30 in November. Down year or no down year, Seager would’ve been in good shape going into free agency, at least in theory.

What would he have received this offseason? This is where it gets interesting. What does Seager get when the free agent market offers other similar third base options like Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier? Those two are having trouble generating interest, at least as far as we know, so add Seager to the mix and the outlook only gets worse. Seager is worth $20 million or so on a four or five-year contract, I believe. But again, what a player is worth and what he receives are not always the same thing.

9. Matt Carpenter

1B / Cardinals

Contract: Six years, $52 million with one club option (Signed March 2014)

Matt Carpenter’s free agency would have been very interesting. He’s been so obviously productive for the Cardinals — Carpenter hit .241/.384/.451 with 23 home runs in 2017, and has posted a 120 OPS+ or better each of the last three seasons — and versatile, but he also turned 32 last month and isn’t particularly good defensively. His best position is first base and it’s fair to wonder if he’d wind up a full-time DH before the end of a multi-year contract.

What would he have received this offseason? The three-year, $60 million contract Carlos Santana just signed with the Phillies seems just perfect for Carpenter.

10. Brandon Belt

1B / Giants

Contract: Five years, $72.8 million (Signed April 2016)

Thanks to a variety of injuries, Brandon Belt has played only 458 of 648 possible games for the Giants the last four years, which would have surely hurt his free agent stock. He’ll turn in 30 in April and, as always, the free agent market offers no shortage of left-handed hitting first basemen. Belt would have been competing for work with Logan Morrison, Lucas Duda, and the recently signed Yonder Alonso, not to mention Eric Hosmer. The injuries would have really sabotaged Belt’s free agency.

Brandon Belt would have made the free agent first base market even more crowded. USATSI

What would he have received this offseason? Because of the injuries — Belt hit .241/.355/.469 with 18 home runs in 104 games around wrist problems and a concussion this past season — I think Belt would have been a good candidate for a one-year pillow contract this winter. Sign with a team with a hitter friendly home ballpark (Rockies!), have a big year, and try again next offseason.  

11. Jason Kipnis

2B / Indians

Contract: Six years, $52.5 million with one club option (Signed April 2014)

Nagging shoulder and hamstring injuries limited Jason Kipnis to 90 games with the Indians in 2017, during which he hit .232/.291/.414 with 12 home runs. Not great. That said, Kipnis showed he can play the outfield late in the season, and he is a year removed from hitting .275/.343/.469 with 23 homers and 15 steals. Had he become a free agent as scheduled this offseason, I suspect we’d be reading a lot of “Kipnis is a great buy-low value free agent” articles right about now.

What would he have received this offseason? Cozart’s three-year, $38 million sounds good to me with Kipnis set to turn 31 shortly after Opening Day. Maybe he could push it to three years and $45 million.

12. Pedro Strop

RP / Cubs

Contract: Two years, $11.85 million with one club option (Signed February 2017)

 Arrieta was so great with the Cubs that it can be easy to forget the Chicago also received Pedro Strop in that ridiculously one-sided trade with the Orioles way back when.   

The Orioles have acquired RHP Scott Feldman & CA Steve Clevenger from the Cubs in exchange for RHPs Jake Arrieta & Pedro Strop.

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 2, 2013

Oh Orioles. Strop has thrown 271 2/3 innings with a 2.72 ERA and 10.6 K/9 in parts of five seasons with the Cubbies. He’s been awesome. And they got him in addition to Arrieta.

What would he have received this offseason? This has been a slow-moving offseason for everyone except free agent relievers. Those dudes have been getting paid. The three-year contracts signed by Mike Minor ($28 million), Bryan Shaw ($27 million), and Jake McGee ($27 million) set the market for Strop, even at age 32.

13. Josh Harrison

2B / Pirates

Contract: Four years, $27.3 million with two club options (Signed April 2015)

After back-to-back subpar seasons in 2015 and 2016, Pirates infielder Josh Harrison rebounded to hit .272/.339/.432 with 16 home runs this summer while playing his typically strong defense all around the infield. The big question: How sustainable is that batting line when Harrison was hit by 23 pitches in 2017 after being hit by 26 pitches total from 2011-16?

What would he have received this offseason? The Cozart deal again. Three years and $38 million or so. 

14. Logan Forsythe

2B / Dodgers

Contract: Two years, $10.25 million with one club option (Signed January 2016)

The soon-to-be 31-year-old Logan Forsythe is coming off a bit of a down year with the Dodgers. He hit .224/.351/.327 in 2017 after hitting .273/.347/.444 with the Rays from 2015-16, though, to be fair, Forsythe did annihilate left-handed pitchers. I’m talking about a .290/.418/.452 batting line against southpaws this past season. A right-handed platoon bat who can play the three non-shortstop infield positions and even some left field is a nifty little role player.

What would he have received this offseason? Two years ago the Dodgers gave Howie Kendrick a two-year contract worth $20 million, and that sounds about right for me. I suspect such a signing would be met with a lot of “wow that’s a great deal for [team]” based on Forsythe’s 2015-16 seasons.

15. Matt Moore

SP / Rangers

Contract: Five years, $14 million with three club options (Signed December 2011)

It wasn’t that long ago that Matt Moore looked like a potential $200 million pitcher. Then Moore needed Tommy John surgery early in 2014, and since returning, he has a 4.85 ERA in 435 2/3 innings. That includes 5.52 ERA and an NL leading 107 runs allowed in 174 1/3 innings in 2017. Ouch. Imagine if Moore hadn’t spent the season in pitcher friendly AT&T Park? The Giants traded him to the Rangers a few weeks ago.

What would he have received this offseason? A one-year pillow contract, no doubt. Moore is still only 28. A one-year deal with an eye on testing the market again next offseason seems like a smart move. Andrew Cashner’s one-year, $10 million contract with the Rangers this past season seems like the benchmark. (Cashner had a 5.25 ERA in 2016, remember.)

16. Adam Ottavino

RP / Rockies

Contract: Three years, $10.4 million (Signed December 2015)

The 2017 season was not kind to longtime Rockies relief ace Adam Ottavino, who threw 53 1/3 innings with a 5.06 ERA in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. This is a guy who had a 2.84 ERA with 186 strikeouts in 180 2/3 innings from 2013-16 though, and he did it with Coors Field as his home ballpark. Ottavino’s track record would have earned him a look somewhere, especially with so many teams hoarding bullpen help.

What would he have received this offseason? Even in this market, I think Ottavino would’ve had to settle for a one-year contract given the recent elbow reconstruction and his 2017 performance. One year and $5 million or so could have done it.  

17. Nate Jones

RP / White Sox

Contract: Three years, $8 million with two club options (Signed December 2015)

When healthy, White Sox setup man Nate Jones has been very, very good. He just hasn’t been healthy all that often. Jones had Tommy John surgery in 2014 and his 2017 season ended in July thanks to nerve repositioning surgery on his elbow. Between surgeries, the soon-to-be 32-year-old right-hander threw 101 1/3 innings with a 2.49 ERA and 122 strikeouts. His average fastball velocity? 97.4 mph. That’ll play.  

What would he have received this offseason? Jones is coming off elbow surgery — non-structural elbow surgery, but still elbow surgery — though I still think he’d get a guaranteed contract. I could see a team throwing him one year and $3 million or so, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle in a rather pricey relief market.

Injuries have completely derailed Devin Mesoraco’s career. Since hitting 25 home runs with a .273/.359/.534 batting line as a 26-year-old with the Reds in 2014, Mesoraco has played only 95 of 486 possible games and hit .191/.292/.314. His 2017 season ended in August when an errant pitch broke his foot. What a shame. Mesoraco was establishing himself as one of the game’s best backstops when the injuries struck.

What would he have received this offseason? I’m not sure Mesoraco would get a guaranteed contract even with catching always in demand. A minor league contract with a catcher needy team may have been his best option. The goal would be hooking on somewhere, proving he could stay healthy (even if he has to do it in Triple-A), then hope for a better contract next year.

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