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Divine Seafood Xu Zhe Hardcore Dialogue: How come hedging an important skill for miners?

2020 may be the most particular 12 months for Bitcoin in the past eleven years. A lot of mining machines are facing various dangers and life and death assessments. Supply chain delays have avoided large-scale brand-new mining machines from showing up, and mining has a "zero-sum video game" In today's state, there are increasingly more abilities that miners have to master. On May 26, Shang Silin, co-founder of Mars Fund and Us president of Mars Cloud Mine, had a hard-core dialogue with Cobo & Yuchi co-founder Shenyu and well-known trader Mr. Xu Zhe, focusing on hedging-a must-have for miners in 2020 Skills to talk about and discuss, the following may be the dialogue textual content collation.

The guests' main point of view is that mining is a zero-sum game, and the excess returns are attained when other miners fall. Hedging is a device to resist violent marketplace fluctuations and dark swans. When the 312 crash, the number of mining machines was even more than halved. Every miner should consider his own danger exposure and do not ignore it since it will be complicated or not intuitively suitable. Hedging can be life-saving in acute cases. It is a important means to determine whether miners can obtain excess returns using their opportunities, or if they can recover their costs. Selling part at the proper price may be a risk-averse strategy commonly used by miners, nevertheless, you may possibly not be lucky enough to understand the chance, so our strategy would be to consider reducing chance exposure before making a decision, and at least section of it Set out the electricity bill. Mining is a stock game market. The low the price of the currency, the greater bitcoins can be mined by a one mining machine. Consequently, many friends who have not done hedging may find the fact that marginal cost and the marginal revenue are inconsistent, and open the opportunity to reduce electricity. Shut down. Xu Zhe miners must very first ensure that they are able to survive and do not escape, otherwise, the blockchain trend has nothing in connection with you. You don't have to think about whether the black swan should come. The dark swan will definitely come. It really is nothing more than when also to what extent. This can't be prevented. Regardless of the higher or low insight cost, you need to have this sort of thinking. It isn't that hedging is highly recommended when investing a large amount of capital. They have nothing in connection with additional money and less overall. You'll want a risk handle thinking to survive. To do hedging, you need to choose to use futures or choices to lock in the value from the currency at a time when mining is profitable. I purchased a batch of mining machines myself, and then short the futures, combined with some option combinations, to create a relatively stable asset value, which can continue steadily to generate cashflow. Most miners have faith in Bitcoin and will not short all their result, as long as they short the electricity bill. Then use futures to short 60% of the future bitcoins produced by the mining machine. In this way, your electricity bill must be guaranteed every month before day you pay out the electricity bill, you'll be able to continue to dig. Don't speculate. Anyone who has a little speculative mindset will be trained by the market. Don't confront the father of the market. It is possible to hedge as much as you need. Interview textual content finishing Shang Silin (host): Nowadays we share the theme of uncovering the secret of hedging. Today's miners have more choices than in the early years, but what I see now is whether it's depositing coins to earn attention, mortgage financing (staking BTC to obtain USDT), whether it's paying electric bills or in the supplementary market Operation, they are to help everyone keep Bitcoin and keep the position in hand. I personally understand that hedging isn't the same as the above two, and it is not entirely a currency standard. Because Bitcoin will be highly volatile, additionally it is important whether your currency can be anchored in the value of fiat currency. However, after encountering 312, and current marketplace fluctuations, miners will encounter a reduction in halving earnings, an increase in doubt, and better volatility. It is estimated that many people have a training in blood and tears, therefore now we are talking about hedging. This topic comes at the proper time. Let me give you a brief introduction to today's two guests. Shenyu is a big miner that has experienced several halvings. He is furthermore the co-founder of Cobo and the co-founder of Yuchi, the world's largest Bitcoin mining pool. Xu Zhe is a well-known financial head on Zhihu, and the author of "Zero Pie inside the Sky". He's got written many content articles about Bitcoin. It is estimated that many people beyond your circle understand that Bitcoin will be through Xu Da's post. He is furthermore a front-line hedge The chief strategist from the fund. We myself (Shang Silin) ??worked in the media for more than ten years and venture capital for 3 years, and now I am the co-founder of Mars Finance and the president of Mars Cloud Mine. We usually talk about how to do hedging and how to avoid the risks from the supplementary market. It just happened that today, because the spokesperson of a new miner, I furthermore talked about hedging with two experts. When did Shenyu start hedging? Shang Silin: When do Shenyu start hedging? That which was the opportunity? Like a senior miner, what do you consider is the utilization rate of hedging in the currency group? Shenyu ??: I didn't have this awareness at the beginning. After stepping around the pit, I noticed that we have to use this solution to hedge dangers. In 2013, we made silverfish mining machines. In those days, our mining machine strategy was not the same as that of present mining machine producers. After we finished the potato chips, we focused on mining by ourselves. In those days, the break-even stage of mining Litecoin was calculated to be around 30 yuan, and close friends from traditional financing around me personally suggested that we carry out hedging. But initial, because the price of Litecoin has been still relatively higher in those days, more than 100 yuan, with several times the net profit, everyone believed it had been OK; second, lack of professional financial knowledge, therefore no hedging. With the gradual bulk production of the device, the price of the currency fell all the way after 380, and fell to the cheapest of 5 yuan in 2015. The cover up cannot cover the expense of electrical power and can no longer continue to dig. We elect to shut down throughout the day, because electrical power is very costly in the commercial park throughout the day, and during the night may be the valley, therefore we utilize the electrical power at night. Later on, I found the fact that electrical power at night could not be supported, therefore i had to turn off. Later on, when resuming the market, we will recall that if we create an integral part of the position at the proper currency price, for instance, if we set out the electrical power bill for a period, it would not be turn off later; in addition, compared to additional mining machines, we It could dig for longer, therefore with regards to currency standard and legal currency standard, it could get more benefits. This matter touched us a whole lot. Since then, when making investment decisions in the mining sector, we will initial be sure to reserve a period of electric bills and reserve a degree of cash. Derivatives weren't so developed in those days. We all sold the spot straight. For example, if we purchased 1,000 mining machines, we could mine 1,000 bitcoins in two years, and the electrical power bill accounted for 30-40%. After that we are in a far more appropriate one. First sell 400 bitcoins at the price and keep the electrical power bill. In this way, whether or not the price of the currency goes up or falls, you will see no closures; compared with other competitors on the market, we can dig more bitcoins during the life cycle from the mining machine.

Image resource: Weibo @?BTCer Shang Silin: Selling a part in an appropriate price may be a risk aversion technique commonly adopted by miners. Shenyu ??: Indeed, but you may possibly not be lucky enough to grasp the chance, so our technique would be to consider reducing risk exposure before making a decision, and at least cover part of the electricity bill. Shang Silin: A pal said at the moment that hedging is now a tool commonly used by miners, best? I think it isn't. Shenyu ??: As far as I know, some huge miners who have stepped around the pit are aware of hedging and could begin to use strange ways to try to build hedging positions. A lot of small and moderate miners haven't any such consciousness. They think it doesn't matter, they are all in directly, the amount of assets is also small, and they gambled, but this mentality isn't so healthy in the currency circle. A lot of miners mentioned that hedging is very simple, just short in the futures marketplace. But as the futures marketplace has a lot of inconsistencies with the market, as well as vicious events such as for example needle insertion and door painting, if you don't have professional financial knowledge, you'll transfer your danger contact with the futures marketplace. So how exactly does Xu Zhe formulate a hedging technique? Xu Zhe: If a miner sells coins as soon as he digs a coin every day, his typical selling price may be the typical price of coins sold every day during the mining period. If the average price is lower than the shutdown electrical power price, the mining will eventually lose more money. There is no way to avoid the risk of falling currency prices, because I don't know when the currency price will fall or just how long it will fall. Consequently, for hedging, you need to choose to use futures or choices to lock the value from the currency at a time when mining will be profitable. For example, the electricity bill from the mining machine now accounts for about 60%. That is to say, if you can mine one bitcoin a month and you have to use 0.6 bitcoin to cover the electricity bill, nowadays there are two choices: One would be to short all of the power bills within the next a year, 12⊙0.6=7.2, short 7.2 bitcoins initial; mine 12 coins per year and remove 7.2 coins to cover the electricity bill, in order that even though the bitcoin drops to 3,000, If it can't hurt you, it means you don't need to turn off if you're around 3,000, but other people have to turn off. If another person shuts down, the difficulty of computing strength will be adjusted, and you can get more bitcoins. Furthermore, after covering 60% from the electricity bill, there is still cashflow still left, and some liquid assets are still left for yourself. When the currency price does not rise, the difficulty of computing strength increases, and the monthly output from the currency decreases again. Regarding a degree of liquidity, life can be rescued. In addition to shorting electric bills, there is another substitute for short all output. That is to treat it as a real asset. Or assume that certain bitcoin is created every month, and first short the output within the next a year (12 bitcoins), after that what you get is the motivated future dollar cashflow, after which use this future motivated dollar cashflow as cashflow The discount algorithm is calculated so far. Review it with the price of the mining machine to find out if it's cost-effective along with a good purchase. If it's, you'll be able to do this. However, most miners have faith in Bitcoin and will not short almost all their output, as long as they short the electrical power bill. Then use futures to short 60% of the future bitcoins produced by the mining machine. In this way, your electricity bill must be guaranteed every month before day you pay out the electricity bill, you'll be able to continue to dig. You must first ensure that you can survive and do not escape, otherwise, the blockchain revolution has nothing in connection with you.

Sometimes mining will encounter some unexpected circumstances. Shenyu will need to have encountered more than I have experienced, such as unexpected network fluctuations or hardware failures. I originally said that I could mine one bitcoin in a month, but in the end it was only 0.95. One, 0.94, this is very possible. What if you shorted one bitcoin on futures and then mined 0.94 bitcoins? When the currency price continues to be rising now, after that futures will undoubtedly be vacant, isn't it a reduction? So you have to save some remaining cashflow to safeguard yourself. I have already practiced every one of the above strategies, and when We haven't practiced them, We dare not talk about them in vain. I purchased a batch of mining machines myself, and then short the futures, combined with some option combinations, to create a relatively stable asset value, which can continue steadily to generate cashflow. Shang Silin: Will the hedging percentage be adjusted according to the proportion of electricity costs. For example, the existing high proportion of electricity costs indicates the fact that currency price is usually relatively in a minimal period; the low proportion of electricity costs indicates the fact that currency price reaches a high level. Adjust the percentage of hedging? Xu Zhe: Zero, the proportion of electric bills has nothing in connection with whether the currency price is overestimated. The currency price can also rise once the proportion of electricity costs is low, and the currency price can fall when the proportion of electricity costs is high, that is different from the thought of ??traditional spot commodities. In the traditional bulk commodity market, for instance, oil has fallen below the mining cost of oil fields, and copper and iron are less than the mining cost of mines, so prices cannot fall. Because in the case of limited stocks by the traders that produce spot goods, if the mining manages to lose money, the supply will also decrease. For example, when crude essential oil fell to greater than a dozen US dollars some time ago, many essential oil fields stopped starting; before iron ore plummeted, mines stopped mining. Because the supply of commodities on the planet decreases, prices rise, so prices will never be less than mining production costs for quite a while, but Bitcoin is different. Bitcoin mining makes money again, or even loses money again, in addition, it raises by 50 bitcoins, 25 bitcoins, 12.5 bitcoins, and 6.25 bitcoins every 10 minutes. Even though the mining machine loses its cost, it shuts down and sells at a discount. Regarding the two times when scrap iron comes, it still items 6.25 bitcoins every 10 minutes. The supply rate is quite certain and will not change as the miners are losing money. Consequently, if Bitcoin mining electrical power costs are particularly high, you won't affect the supply, and it'll not change in any way, but only modification the difficulty of mining. Which means you can't say that electric bills be aware of a higher proportion of electric bills. Bitcoin gets the potential to rise in the foreseeable future. Can I reduce my hedge? Extremely hard. It isn't scientific to utilize the proportion of electric bills as a research indicator for future years of currency prices. Don't speculate, any speculative mindset will undoubtedly be taught by the market. Don't confront the market dad, simply hedge as much as you need. So how exactly does Shenyu formulate a hedging technique? Shang Silin: I'd like to inquire Shenyu, how do you determine the timing and percentage if you are creating a hedging technique? Shenyu??: There are several time nodes in the mining process. The very first time node would be to decide whether to purchase a mining machine. At the moment, we will create a design to calculate the payback period, how long it will be for the existing computing power, electrical power bill, etc., and then according to the trouble of the market and the predictable trouble Cycle, roughly estimate the return period and profitability, in the end, this can be a big investment. Before placing an order for any mining machine manufacturer, We already had an over-all psychological expectation. Understanding whether the mining machine will pay back again the cost in 120 days or 200 days, you'll be able to basically determine the composition from the electrical power bill-or before the cost is paid back. The amount of money flow of electric bills have to be prepared when online profit is attained. Usually if you are determined to get a mining machine, the price of the mining machine and the price of the coin are still fairly good; or the coin price is quite poor, and the mining machine is significantly undervalued, such as for example after a sharp drop. So at the moment, we elect to hedge part of the currency in line with the currency price. For example, if the currency price is higher, we may cover up the electrical power bill for the whole life cycle; if the currency price is low, at least 30 days to a quarter from the electrical power bill. In this way, it could be guaranteed that even though the market falls sharply in the foreseeable future, these mining machines can still be turned on. At the moment, Xu Da furthermore mentioned the fact that mining market is different from the traditional oil mining marketplace. Mining is a stock game market. When the currency price is lower, the greater bitcoins a one mining machine can dig, a lot of friends who have not done hedging may find the fact that marginal cost and the marginal revenue are inconsistent. Consequently, the electricity bill will be protected by means of hedging, so that the mining machine can still be mixed up in market once the currency price is lower, and can dig more bitcoins. At exactly the same time, because we are a currency-based investment, or you want to acquire more bitcoins, a number of the online revenue of mining machines are stored by means of coins. If there is a large-scale increase in the currency price, for instance Like the marketplace in 2017, you will see two parts of benefits: One part may be the coins dug out following removing the electricity bill, and the rest of the coins with this part can also be valued. Furthermore, the mining machine is a kind of hardware resource, and the price of the mining machine will react violently during the fast price increase. Because hardware developing is usually cycled, and price increases occur rapidly, the distinction between these two parts of earnings is already spectacular for miners. So we just need to hedge, make sure that we are still running the device in the worst case, and dig more bitcoins than our competition on the market, and we will win. Xu Zhe: Indeed, I agree. Live life, live to the day when there is a chance. There is an old saying in the industry-losses are dependant on yourself, and wealth depends upon the market. I don't know whether Bitcoin will rise to 14,000 or 18,000. Just how much it goes up and how much cash you make are dependant on the market. But you can decide how very much you hedge, whether you intend to cover half of it or the full set, or simply cover 1/10. It is possible to decide whether you can survive, and then the market determines how much you can get wealthy and what we can do Just make sure you can survive initial. So long as you reside long enough and do not choose the incorrect market, you will definitely have the ability to make money. If you cannot survive, no matter how good the market is, you can only break up your thigh. So my advice to many people are: whether you are doing contract trading or mining, everyone will need to have a bottom line, that is, to ensure that they endure. There is no higher principle than this. Shang Silin: Indeed, it is actually fighting contrary to the risk of Bitcoin volatility. What function can hedging play? Shang Silin: You two can talk about the specific function of hedging in the extreme marketplace of 312 and in working with the halving? Shenyu: Within the few days once the 312 plummeted, the currency price fluctuated between three and four thousands of. The S9s which were on the market had been all turn off, a lot more than the number of halved shut downs. There was a touch upon Weibo before that everyone laughed at Jiang Zhuoer for hedging more than 8,000, and the hedging was halfway in the mountain. However, after a sharp fall of 312, searching back at the hedging price, although the price may possibly not be high, it still made him perform less badly beneath the extreme market. Although the duration of 312 was not so long this time around, it rebounded rapidly, but under normal circumstances, the currency price will stay sideways at the bottom for a long period, so hedging can be guaranteed to be in a bottom variety. When many people are turn off, let's do it. The hedged mining machine can also be powered happily. Lots of people have lost their self-confidence in mining in the bottom interval. If indeed they do hedging, you will see a big floating profit at the moment. You can also stop an integral part of the listing and quickly discount it.

Image resource: Weibo @?BTCer

The other may be the halving. The halving provides about a substantial reduction in the earnings of miners. A lot of miners turn off in the early morning of the day from the halving, as the electrical power bill in those days (specifically the electrical power bill during the dried out season) could not cover the result in those days. If you do hedging at the proper time, even though the electrical power bill is fairly high, you can still continue mining. At the very least you should use exactly the same mining machine. If you open it for a period longer than additional miners, then your income margin will undoubtedly be produced. , The payback period becomes shorter. Therefore, hedging is a very good financial tool and methods to resist violent marketplace fluctuations and black swan events. I suggest that every miner carefully think about this danger exposure, not since it will be complicated or undesirable intuitively. Thing, simply ignore it. Hedging can be life-saving in acute cases. It is a important means to determine whether miners can obtain excess returns using their opportunities, or if they can recover their costs. How come hedging required? Xu Zhe: Although I haven't already been mining for a long period, I know from my communication with close friends of miners that it's not that mining must make money. In history, there were many incidents of miners getting out in large numbers. This fish employer must have experienced it. . You don't have to think about whether the dark swan should come. The dark swan will definitely come. It really is nothing more than when also to what extent. This can't be prevented. Regardless of the higher or low insight cost, you need to have such thinking. It isn't that hedging is highly recommended when investing a large amount of capital. They have nothing in connection with additional money and less overall. You'll want a danger control thinking to survive.

And the fact of living will actually bring you benefits. To become cruel, you might have additional benefits which are accomplished by those that do not have danger control escaping .. This market is quite cruel, and the target laws of the market are like this. Shenyu ??: Indeed, when carry out miners make the most money? After the crash, the surviving miners find out excess bitcoins, therefore each round from the crash will generate the rise of a new drive of miners. Some miners with eyesight and unique danger control features survive on the market. , Has accumulated resource advantages.

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After the global financial reshuffle in 2020, what great changes took put in place the primary game logic of the crypto market?

In 2020, the worldwide financial market is turbulent, as well as the crypto market in addition has undergone huge adjustments. The Bitcoin has experienced extreme slump and swan occurrences are regular. Some investors could be confused concerning the market, aside from the dark swan incident. , The main market force can be a factor that has a great impact on market changes. However, a lot of people may not know much concerning the major force's tactics as well as the reasoning of market games, and they are also interested. At 20:00 for the evening of Apr 8th, the OKEx Cleverness Bureau asked Janson at Bit Villa to talk about the live tone of voice, to show you the "pushing hand" behind the market and the reasoning of the market game.

Guest user profile: Yang Sen, partner of Bithills, initiator of impulse theory, creator of BetaAi The following may be the essence of the sharing: 1. After March 2020, the Bitcoin market has been washed out, the market has basically returned to the primary battlefield of the spot market. However, the pattern of contracts can't be ceased. 2020 is a halving year, which is also a year of contract bull market. Leverage and pattern are king. 2. The concept of "major force" started in the currency markets. There are very major force and ordinary major force in the currency circle. All the unexpected rises and falls in the market are a sort of "shared force" between the major forces. 3. Looking at the partnership between ordinary traders and the primary force from your perspective of game theory, it should be a pig game. The main pressure may be the "big pig" as well as the retail traders are the "little pig". 4. Investors' judgment on market problems should focus on many indications: greed and anxiety indicators, long and short placements, elite positions, adjustments in market trading depth, buying walls and selling walls, changes in the amount of positions, adjustments in market quantity and pattern fluctuations. 5. The main method of the super major force is normally: in the bull market, the negative increase as well as the step back are used, as well as the bull market ends with the skyrocketing technique; and if it is to fall, it will use a unexpected plunge or a resistive fall; In those days, the two strategies alternate, as well as the needle will be inserted up and down completely within a bear market. 6. Next, the pattern of Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate about 7000, looking forward to the introduction of the international situation. Considering the uncertainty of the epidemic, several families can keep 70% of underneath position, open 30% of the positioning near 7000, and gradually open the positioning after the economic downturn. The following may be the full text of the sharing in line with the live broadcast: OKEx Cleverness Bureau: Hi, everyone, welcome to the special live life broadcast class for OKEx Cleverness Bureau fans! This is Yuanyuan, the anchor of the Cleverness Bureau. Being a top quality blockchain column, the OKEx Cleverness Bureau is committed to mining timely blockchain and electronic currency information and in-depth industry analysis from traders. To be able to surrender to everyone because of their direct attention and support for our festival, we will hold fan-exclusive live life broadcasts every once in awhile, inviting senior individuals and well-known scholars in the circle to interpret the blockchain industry and encryption for everyone Trends in the currency market. In 2020, the worldwide financial market is turbulent, as well as the crypto market in addition has undergone tremendous adjustments. The Bitcoin has experienced extreme slump and swan occurrences occur often, but a lot of people could be "pushing" and the market behind the market. The reasoning of the overall game is not nicely understood and filled with curiosity. Today we invite Yang Sen, that has experienced trading experience in the circle, to talk about "After the 2020 global financial reshuffle, which are the major changes in the overall game logic of the crypto market players?" Next, Mr. Yang, please share with us fans of the OKEx Cleverness Bureau State hello close friends~ Yang Sen: Great evening, I'm Yang Sen from Specific Zhuang "Tianqing Contract Group". The golf swing strategy that focuses on contract trading has previously had its own quantitative foundation Beta Ai in North america. Because of the particularity of quantitative trading, just high-frequency arbitrage types with the very least expenditure of 100 BTC are given. This time around, OKEX generally analyzes the adjustments that have happened in 2020 from your perspective of the primary players. It is stated that the fact of market trading is to follow the main players. After guessing the primary force's intentions, you're basically successful. We need to recognize possible. Within the transactional standing chain, the top predator may be the very main force, accompanied by the quantitative firm, and the third is the contract team with assets, and then the top group of retail traders. , And retail traders are ranked last. Because the channels for retail traders to obtain information are very limited, and you can find no specific positive and negative indicators in the currency circle, most of the customers' transactions are unacceptable, and they are in a very passive and disadvantaged state. Everyone understands that the primary force has a certain ability to handle market trends, so it's very essential to trade after understanding the primary force's intentions. OKEx Cleverness Bureau: Okay, welcome to Mr. Yang. Next, we will enter today's Q&A sharing session. 1. Given the serious turbulence in the worldwide financial environment this season, do you consider the cryptocurrency market will change in 2020? Is there any difference from days gone by? Yang Sen: I believe plenty of changes took location. On March 12th and 13th, the special currency fell from 9100 to 3800, and everyone ought to be impressed. Actually, as soon as 2 weeks ago, the dealer of the special dealer said that there is a new web host entering the market, and the capital of 3 billion opened up a position. Searching ahead, it turns out that the very protagonist has forcibly solved this new community. If you go through the span of time in a larger scale, 16 to 17 many years are the place market, and from 17 to 18 many years, there has been a long bear market. During this period, contracts have gradually risen, because the concept of hundred occasions currency has steadily disappeared, and various small coins have been running. Lukang people are growing in endlessly, and everyone is focusing on mainstream currencies and discovering a financial derivative contract that can earn money up and down. Since the contract price is against the regular place, the spot in 2019 is just a cover, as well as the contract is the major battlefield. After the Bitcoin market was washed out in March 2020, the OK contract holdings dropped by nearly 90%, and the market basically returned to the primary battlefield of the spot market. However, the pattern of contracts has been unstoppable, as well as the open interest of varied exchanges is growing for a price of about 5% each day. Everyone should note that 2020 is a halving year, a year having a halving halo. It is destined to be extraordinary, which is also a year in the contract market. Leverage and pattern are king. OKEx Cleverness Bureau: After the slump inside March this season, Bitcoin along with other crypto assets were questioned. Many ordinary investors failed to retain it, which includes people's anticipation of Bitcoin's halving. Do you think most of them had been Does the prediction and analysis logic of the market have to be overthrown and rebuilt? Yang Sen: Regarding whether the analysis logic ought to be overthrown, I believe it is unnecessary. The slump in the market could be omitted. The low shadow line is a long-planned cleanup actions. It is an indisputable fact that the bottom is just about 6000, so now could be a good chance for the market. After all, near the cost of mining devices in 19, You'll find nothing to hesitate. Considering the uncertainty of the epidemic, many families can keep 70% of underneath position, open 30% of the positioning around 7000, and gradually open the positioning after the economic downturn. OKEx Cleverness Bureau: We often see the phrase "principal" in some emotional analysis. What role does the protagonist have fun with in the market? Has there been any change within this color this season? Yang Sen: Actually, the concept of ¨major force〃 comes from the currency markets. It was initially a group produced by large families. It was probable to use their very own capital to leverage the sentiment, and comprehensive a circular of market producing by opening placements, pulling gives, and selling. Get high profits. Within the currency circle, the primary force is actually split into super main force and ordinary main force. You can find a great deal of ordinary main actors, rather than some large groupings, quantitative companies, or contract teams like ours. For example, the previous contract team used the situation of the finish of the Feng Shui time period as well as the increase in mining costs, which suppressed the currency price at that time, and slowly caused collective selling with the miners. By using potential selling pressure from miners, a rounded of market producing was completed. Generally speaking, the extremely main force gives us some "signals", that is the technical language of the disk. You can see that all the good and the bad in the market are a sort of "shared force" action, it is impossible for any one to comprehensive it alone. Therefore, there is a fight between the main forces, but additionally even more of a cooperative relationship. Ordinary major force dominates the niche for 1 tiny to 3 minutes. The very main force is a mysterious group that handles the rhythm. It could dominate the line and the every week level. They hold plenty of data, and they are scattered within a streaking state. Therefore, if we generally see every week and monthly adjustments, it means how the very main players are making market, and their time frame will be fairly longer. OKEx Cleverness Bureau: The game is very important in the financial market, so it's the same in the cryptocurrency market. Can you talk about the game reasoning of the crypto market? Yang Sen: Regarding the game logic of the crypto market, I will mainly say that it is closely related to everyone. I believe the title of the 2010 exam is very good: while looking up at the superstars, you must become down to planet. For the dispersed individuals, what everyone must do is to follow the primary force clearly to use. Let's consider it from your perspective of game theory. The transaction in the financial market is a zero-sum game. Every cash you make has another loser. Can you earn the primary earner? Difficult. 90% of the amount of money you earn comes from individuals whose cognition is behind you. How do i close up the dialog package? Then it must be mixed with the main pressure. Looking at the partnership between us and the primary force from your perspective of game theory, it should be a sensible pig game. I don't know if you've heard about it. The reason is, suppose a large pig and a little pig eat in exactly the same trough, but there is a pedal at the other end. You need to step for the pedal to consume the food. At the moment, if the tiny pig methods on the pedals, then when it comes back, the food will be eaten with the big pigs; then when the big pigs step for the pedals, there will be a certain amount of meals left as it pertains back. Within the currency circle, what we call the wise pig game is actually the relationship between the main force and retail investors. The main force may be the big pig, as well as the retail traders are the little pigs. Therefore, the primary force must start the market, usually he will starve to loss of life, because they possess spent a lot energy for the layout, pulling, and hitting... Ordinary traders just need to follow the pattern and sit back and revel in their achievements. OKEx Cleverness Bureau: Within the volatility of sentiment which has plummeted and skyrocketed, several investors are easily confused concerning the market. Can you share how ordinary investors can capture and understand the developments of very protagonists? Yang Sen: Speaking of this, we must talk about market sentiment. With regards to taking market sentiment, you have to mention Xu Xiang. Xu Xiang is a Chinese stock god. He is recognized for his very strong feeling of trading. He is able to almost make a lot more than 90% precise judgments in line with the perception of market sentiment. So we must focus on a few indicators: 1. Greed and anxiety indicators. Once the market panic indicator is leaner than 10, it means that it is almost time and energy to buy bottoms. 2. Long and brief positions, elite placements, changes in market trading depth, purchasing walls and marketing walls, and adjustments in the amount of positions are important indicators. 3. Market volume adjustments and niche fluctuations may also be called volume-price stability. OKEx Cleverness Bureau: The market is unstable. What changes have been made to the primary force in the market? Do bull marketplaces and bear marketplaces have different reasoning? Yang Sen: This super main force continues to be familiar. From 2019 to today, I have often felt that he is the same super main pressure functioning. Summarize in four phrases: eliminate decisively. Basically, in one round of market, if you wish to rise, you will use the "3 natural and 1 crimson" method to do overcast rises. Before, the market that took one week to complete, today the battle could be solved within 1 day. Sudden skyrocketing developments have been rare this year. Within a bull market, the primary force often adopts the technique of overcast and retreading. Once the bull market ends, it will adopt the technique of skyrocketing. If he wants to fall, he will use two strategies: 1. Sudden plunge (usually in the first hours of the morning, often on the opening of the Western and American marketplaces); 2. Resistance fall (in front of everyone, causing a downward There's an illusion of buying support). Once the bull changes to the carry, two methods are used alternately. If the market is a comprehensive carry market, top of the and lower pins will be used, and there will be many long top and lower shadows for the disk. OKEx Cleverness Bureau: Earlier, Yang Sen shared the related sharing of the primary market developments and games, then I would like to ask two questions about market hotspots and market conditions. Around the evening of April 8th, the production of BCH has been reduced. Around the morning of Apr 10th, BSV will also be halved. Do you have any views on the next market dynamics and potential development of the two currencies? Yang Sen: Both generations of Bitcoin possess finally begun to halve. At this juncture, in general, the halving has nothing in connection with the market. We have been mainly concerned about overseas epidemics. If the United States withstands the pressure of 400,000 bacterial infections and stabilizes the situation, the future will be really good. After all, the water launched will never be collected. In this manner, BCH and BSV will charge all the way and break with the sky. Simply kidding, the crucial thing is to continue to charge with Bitcoin, after all, the daily line is very gorgeous. If the U.S. can't stand it (I believe it's a big probability), it might be a high shipment rate prior to the halving, struggle for some time, and then shut down. We must prepare yourself with both hands and be prepared to escape. In fact, we can see that the pattern of BCH has retraced. Therefore, I suggest which you do a partial sell-off and do not leave too many chips in the hands. The future is in the fingers of the coronavirus, not really in our fingers, nor in the fingers of the primary force. There's everything if it could survive, and when it fails, the worldwide economy will decrease. Therefore, everyone should not have too much expectation for the halving market, and hurry to hoard the spot, getting excited about the halving of Bitcoin the following month just like the Prince (BCH). This chance is not to express that there surely is no, but I believe it is not likely. OKEx Cleverness Bureau: Before two times, the global financial market begun to slowly present signs of recuperation. Bitcoin also led the market to rush up-wards, breaking through the prior 7000 resistance zone. What do you consider of the next trend of the cryptocurrency market? Kind of? Yang Sen: Personally, i think that the existing market growth will continue to fluctuate around 7000, looking forward to the introduction of the international situation to become clear. Generally speaking, the primary force still wants to dispatch. After all, we can see that there are a great number of large orders from the market, and here ought to be another chance of more than $1,000. OKEx Cleverness Bureau: Okay, because of Mr. Yang for the solution. The last issue, our OKEx Cleverness Bureau is a stop chain popularization information column, established to become an evangelist for that stop chain industry. So what does Mr. Yang expect in our OKEx Cleverness Bureau? Yang Sen: Inside our opinion, blockchain is in its infancy, and its own application is much behind finance. Those who found this industry said that they were studying blockchain technologies. I think they were joking. They're actually learning how to trade, that is essentially a normal financial trading market. However, the threshold of transaction finance is too much. Too many specialized languages ??and too many information sources require comprehensive analysis, that is not something ordinary people can do well. So I have some personal ideas for the OKEx Cleverness Bureau. You can certainly do even more basic trading understanding, such as what's the K-line, what's the stop-loss and stop-loss, what's the moving average, what's the Bollinger band, etc., could have even more landing value . Needless to say, within a vertical assessment, the OKEx Cleverness Bureau is already doing well. Lastly, I wish the OKEx Cleverness Bureau, beneath the leadership of the beautiful anchors, will grow bigger and larger, and the amount of enthusiasts will grow just like a big bull market, and it'll be better and better on the road of encrypted assets. The following may be the part of answering questions from fans in the interactive session: Donald Duck: Instructor, how to buy this market following? Yang Sen: We have to not bet the chance in market sentiment. As stated earlier, a small number of positions could be opened up at the positioning of 7000, and positions could be opened up in batches. Brother Tao: Instructor, this time around halving, what do you consider? Yang Sen: Halving is definitely a false proposition. It is something that happens naturally beneath the blockchain mechanism. Do you say it is good or poor? In my opinion, this can be a neutral news. I nevertheless said that, don't pin your expectations for the halving soaring, but seize every short-term chance. Brother Tao: Exactly what will be the following dip? Yang Sen: Again, what are we facing? A full time income participant, ideal. What determines the market conditions? It is up to visitors to decide, and folks are changeable. Therefore, don't blindly figure where the underside is, just seize short-term opportunities, which can also avoid some dangers. OKEx Cleverness Bureau: Fine, I'm really honored to have Mr. Yang being a visitor at OKEx Cleverness Bureau. Thank you for your amazing sharing tonight and clarify the reasoning behind the market. Thanks and to the enthusiasts who found the live life broadcast area to take part in this live life broadcast class, and thank you for your assistance! Our sharing class is here now for today~ Note: This content shared this time around consists of the interpretation of the market and only symbolizes the personal views of the guests. Investment is dangerous, OKEx Cleverness Bureau reminds traders to use rationally.

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