#UK bond yields

[notayesmanseconomics]

The Bank of England keeps making the wrong decisions

This week has been a significant one for the Bank of England and this links to its decision to cut interest-rates to 4.5% last week. I will look at the thoughts of policymaker Megan Greene in a moment but let me start with her subject which is “macro-economic developments abroad”. At this point ordinary analysis would concentrate on the Trump Tariffs but there is more behind this. You see the US…

[transmechanicus]

Hey you reblogged some vatnik propaganda that was like:

Durr Hurr the Ukrainians are untrustworthy nazis Herpa Derp they will betray NATO boopy doopy the counter offensive will fail!

So now I have to go on an Adderall fueled essay to counter it:

The Ukrainian combined armed forces, like any modern military, is made of relatively normal people. Thus they need food, weapons, supplies, and reassurances that their families are safe. NATO nations have blatantly provided all those materials and taken in the families of soldiers. NATO members have also arranged supply pipelines to the frontline that will last for years. Furthermore, commanding Officers in the UA have been recieving accurate intelligence from NATO analysts.

I'm not a professional sociologist/psychologist but I do believe that close cooperation which yields positive outcomes does result in closer social bonds between participants. Those kinds of bonds will prevent people from harming each other. It's a fact that Ukraine has yet to invade Poland while the Wagner Group attempted to arrest political opponents on their own side. So I'd say the West's logistics & loyalty between it's proxies is better than the East right now.

All of this isn't enough to make fortified trenches and mine fields disappear overnight. That would take months of organized operations, which are possible because of the factors listed above.

Back to the subject of Betrayal: I will admit it is possible for NATO Nations and "Western" Ukraine to break up:

NATO support could be taken away if the majority of western European leadership suddenly became Pro-Russian American-style Libertarians, like what happened in the UK or the USA. And the Ukrainian armed forces could turn on NATO if the Russians were right and the defenders of the Zelensky regime were actually satanic, queer, far-right, Zionist nationalists thirsting for blood for their bioweapons and any European or American will do.

Only in those realities could such betrayals occur. Notice that the former situation is possible through Russian influence. The latter was (might still be) a major talking point in Russian state media.

Imperialism and war crimes are bad. It's bad when the United States does it, it's bad when Russia does it, it's bad when any country does it. It's bad like the plague.

The Russian Federation's stated objective is the assimilation of Ukraine. So blaming the U.S. Military-Industrial Complex for supplying Ukrainians with weapons seems like... I don't know. Like blaming a venomous snake for your Bubonic Plague infection, which you got from a rat?

The point of the original post I reblogged was "We're giving a lot of fucking guns to a country whose military is positively infested with blatant, actual Nazis, and when NATO/The US military industrial complex no longer sees any benefit in supporting Ukraine against Russia, these cunts specifically are going to be very fucking pissed off about it and will turn those weapons on those they see as their betrayers". This is not a huge leap of logic, and also I am neither a historian nor a political scientist who actually has the time, the fucks, or the platform to justify a Propaganda Check on my one monthly post about the Ukraine conflict. I am simply Some Cunt Online, i hope every Ukrainian trooper with a fuckin SS badge eats their sidearm as soon as possible, and furthermore Carthage Must Be Destroyed.

[starseedfxofficial]

British Pound Swiss Franc: The Jobless Claims Hack That Could Change Your Forex Game Picture this: You’re sipping your morning coffee, charts glowing on your screen, feeling like a trading guru. Then, BAM! The British Pound Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) plunges faster than your enthusiasm when you realize you’ve accidentally opened a sell position instead of buy. It’s a tale as old as Forex itself. But here’s the twist — what if I told you that a humble economic indicator called Jobless Claims could become your secret weapon to outsmart the market, especially when trading the British Pound against the Swiss Franc? Stick with me as we dive into ninja-level insights, underground trends, and strategies that the pros guard like their Netflix passwords. The Overlooked Jobless Claims Factor: Why Most Traders Miss It Let’s bust a myth right away: Traders often dismiss weekly Jobless Claims data as mere background noise. After all, it’s not Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), right? Wrong. Jobless Claims reveal real-time labor market health. For GBP/CHF traders, it serves as an indirect crystal ball for both the UK and global risk sentiment. The GBP/CHF Connection: Why Should You Care? - GBP: Highly sensitive to employment data due to the Bank of England’s hawkish tilt on inflation and growth. - CHF: A safe-haven currency thriving on global uncertainty. Weak US data often drives money into the Franc, squeezing GBP/CHF like your budget after a weekend shopping spree. Insider Tactic #1: Jobless Claims as a Risk Barometer Forget lagging indicators; weekly Jobless Claims offer fresh, actionable intel. Here’s the ninja move: - Rising Claims: Signals labor market weakness in the US, fueling risk-off sentiment. Result? CHF gains strength as investors flee to safety. - Falling Claims: Suggests economic resilience, nudging GBP higher as risk appetite improves. How to Trade It (Step-by-Step) - Pre-Data Prep: Check consensus forecasts at Forex Factory or Investing.com. - Watch for Surprises: Actual figures beating expectations (>10k deviation) tend to spark immediate market reactions. - GBP/CHF Reaction: - Positive Surprise (Lower Claims): Buy GBP/CHF. - Negative Surprise (Higher Claims): Sell GBP/CHF. - Combine with Risk Sentiment: Align your trade with broader market tone (equities, VIX). If stocks are tanking, CHF strength compounds. Hidden Pattern Alert: The 30-Minute Lag Exploit Data drops at 8:30 AM EST, but guess what? Retail traders often underreact. Institutional players digest data fast, but liquidity gaps leave a 30-minute window for smart traders. Pro Tip: - Enter trades 15-30 minutes post-release once volatility stabilizes. - Use 15-minute candles; wait for a break of the initial reaction high/low. Why Most GBP/CHF Traders Fail (And How You Won’t) Mistake #1: Ignoring Cross-Asset Correlations GBP/CHF isn’t just two currencies dancing alone. They waltz with US yields, S&P 500, and gold. - Falling US Yields: Weakens GBP; CHF strengthens. - Equity Rally: Boosts GBP; reduces CHF demand. Mistake #2: Underestimating SNB Stealth Moves The Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervenes like a ninja. They won’t announce it with fireworks. But subtle actions like liquidity withdrawals can drive CHF strength. Advanced Strategy: The Triple Confirmation Formula Combine these signals for high-probability GBP/CHF trades: - Jobless Claims Shock: 10k+ deviation. - Bond Yields Divergence: Watch UK Gilt yields vs. US Treasuries. - CHF Safe-Haven Flow: Monitor S&P 500, gold, and VIX. When all align, your trade becomes less of a gamble and more like a well-rehearsed heist. Case Study: March 2024 - A Real Money Example On March 14, 2024, US Jobless Claims unexpectedly rose to 230k (forecast: 210k). S&P 500 dipped, and US yields softened. Within an hour, GBP/CHF plunged by 0.45%. Traders who spotted this trifecta pocketed 45 pips in under two hours. Those asleep at the wheel? They became part of the 90% who fund our profits. Expert Insights: What the Pros Say According to John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist at DailyFX: “Ignoring Jobless Claims is like driving without looking at your dashboard. It might work until it doesn’t — and then you crash.” (Source) Ashraf Laidi, Forex Strategist and Author of “Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis”, adds: “GBP/CHF traders must see claims data beyond the US lens. It’s a domino effect influencing global risk flows and safe-haven demand.” (Source) Your Next Steps: Upgrade Your GBP/CHF Playbook - Stay Ahead of Data: Get instant updates with StarseedFX News. - Master Hidden Techniques: Enroll in our Free Forex Course. - Join the Elite Circle: Access daily alerts and pro analysis via StarseedFX Community. - Track Your Progress: Optimize performance with our Free Trading Journal. Key Takeaways - Ninja Tactics Recap - Jobless Claims > Noise: Treat it as a leading risk sentiment indicator. - 30-Minute Lag Window: Institutions act fast, but gaps exist — exploit them. - Cross-Asset Signals: GBP/CHF is a symphony of yields, equities, and safe-haven flows. - Case Study Proof: March 2024 data shock delivered quick profits. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated Read the full article

[inkovsky]

The Hang Seng Index opened 231 points higher at 21,526 points and maintained its upward trend. The gains gradually expanded in the afternoon and closed near the intraday high of 21,857 points, up 563 points or 2.64%, setting a new high in 4 and a half months; the Technology Index rose 138 points or 2.7% to 5,281 points. The Main Board's turnover was HK$287.1 billion.

The Hang Seng Index started its upward trend from the mid-January low of around 18,600 points and has risen by more than 3,000 points so far. If the market turnover continues to cooperate, the Hang Seng Index can hold the 10-DMA (20,764) support and is expected to rise to a higher level in the future, heading towards the target of 22,700 to 23,000 points; on the contrary, if this support is lost, the market's upward trend is expected to be difficult to sustain.

In terms of European stock markets, UK and German stocks rose slightly by 0.34% and 0.5% respectively, while French stocks also rose by 0.17%.

Inflation pressure in the United States intensified in January, reducing the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and stimulating an upward trend in U.S. bond yields, dragging down U.S. stocks significantly on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened 235 points lower and then widened its decline to as much as 489 points, closing at a low of 44,104 points. The S&P 500 fell 1.08%, while the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell 1.16% at one point.

At the close of the U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 44,368, down 225 points, or 0.5%; the S&P 500 fell 16 points, or 0.27%, to 6,051; and the Nasdaq rose slightly by 6 points, or 0.03%, to 19,649.

The US dollar index once rebounded by 0.52% to 108.523, and then fluctuated weakly; the euro fell by as much as 0.42% to $1.0317, and then rebounded; the Japanese yen fell by 1.51% to 154.8 per dollar. Bitcoin fell as much as 2.37% to $94,092.

[cocktailsfairytales]

═══ . • PREORDER BLITZ •. ═══

Check out this trailer and preorder for a Dark Fantasy Romance with an unapologetic villain! Bonded Chaos: Twisted Fates Duology Book 1 by @K.J. Johnson

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✩ Dark fantasy Romance

✩ Crowned Prince of Unseelie Fae

✩ Shadow wielder

✩ Unapologetic Villain

✩ H0moc!dal tendanc!es

✩ Fated Mates

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✩ Secret keeper

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✩ Refuses to yield

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Blurb:

The one man who wouldn’t hesitate to kill me if he discovered the truth about me… believed he was my mate.

It was a fleeting moment.

A chance encounter that would slip away like so many before it.

Or so Cadence thought.

But when she woke imprisoned in the Unseelie Kingdom, with no memory of how she got there, and no way to escape, she soon realized that fate had other plans for her.

Cadence

My life was simple. I ran the apothecary in my village, cared for my parents, and tried to keep my reckless brother out of trouble.

I hid in the shadows of the unremarkable, blending seamlessly into the background, unnoticed and overlooked.

It was safer that way.

That was, until he walked into the marketplace, with his storm-grey eyes and a smirk that was as sinful as it was dangerous. His presence stole my breath away, and the overwhelming urge to run consumed me.

To him, or from him? I didn’t know.

Ryker

The moment I laid eyes on her, she became mine.

My Temptress.

My Mate.

The more Cadence tries to fight me, the more desperate I become to conquer her.

It’s a slow descent into madness.

A pull I’m unable to resist, even though it threatens to bring me to the edge of myself. I know it will tear me apart. Yet, I would never escape it, because in the darkness she is mine, and mine alone.

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[masr356]

How low will UK interest rates go? | masr356.com

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter. The writer is senior vice-president and economist at Pimco UK government bond yields are off to a volatile start to the year. After rising sharply in the first two weeks — by roughly 0.3 percentage points for five-year gilts — they have now returned to where they started.…

[capitalspport]

Last week brought significant economic developments that could shape market trends in Q1. Key among them was a batch of data indicating a return of disinflation in the US and UK. While one month of data doesn’t confirm a trend, sustained disinflation would signal easing price pressures, reassuring central banks. Markets responded positively to progress toward inflation targets. Another notable event was a drop in global bond yields. Following turmoil in the UK bond market earlier this month, UK 10-year yields declined by over 22bps, while US 10-year Treasury yields fell by 15bps.

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[leprivatebanker]

UK government bonds yields fall as more Bank of England rate cuts likely

[third-new]

Retail investors flocked to gilts in the first two weeks of 2025

Stay informed with free updates Just enter the Investment myFT Digest — delivered straight to your inbox. Buyers poured money into gilts in the first half of January after a sell-off in UK debt markets pushed up yields and enticed investors to sell in hopes of tax gains. Borrowing costs for the UK government have risen in recent months as global bond sales coincided with concerns that the UK…

[newtras]

Retail investors flocked to gilts in the first two weeks of 2025

Stay informed with free updates Just enter the Investment myFT Digest — delivered straight to your inbox. Buyers poured money into gilts in the first half of January after a sell-off in UK debt markets pushed up yields and enticed investors to sell in hopes of tax gains. Borrowing costs for the UK government have risen in recent months as global bond sales coincided with concerns that the UK…

[satrthere]

Retail investors flocked to gilts in the first two weeks of 2025

Stay informed with free updates Just enter the Investment myFT Digest — delivered straight to your inbox. Buyers poured money into gilts in the first half of January after a sell-off in UK debt markets pushed up yields and enticed investors to sell in hopes of tax gains. Borrowing costs for the UK government have risen in recent months as global bond sales coincided with concerns that the UK…

[starseedfxofficial]

GBPJPY and Retail Sales: The Hidden Market Shake-Ups Traders Ignore The GBPJPY pair is like that one unpredictable friend—you never know what mood it's in. One moment, it's soaring with confidence; the next, it's diving like someone just checked their bank account after holiday shopping. And if there's one economic report that can send this currency pair into a full-blown identity crisis, it's UK retail sales data. So, what’s the deal? How do retail sales figures impact GBPJPY, and more importantly, how can you turn this chaos into profit? Let’s break it down. Why Retail Sales Data Can Shake GBPJPY Like a Volatile Penny Stock Retail sales are more than just a gauge of how much the British public is splurging on overpriced coffee and last-minute Amazon buys. They provide crucial insights into consumer confidence, inflation trends, and economic momentum. When UK retail sales come in strong, it suggests robust consumer spending, often leading to a stronger pound (GBP). But if sales disappoint, investors start questioning the UK’s economic health, and the pound takes a hit. Here's where it gets spicy: GBPJPY is not just about the pound; it’s also about the yen (JPY), a notorious safe-haven currency. If retail sales are weak, traders may flock to the safety of the yen, intensifying GBPJPY’s decline. On the flip side, if sales exceed expectations, the pound can surge, forcing GBPJPY to skyrocket. In short: Retail sales data can flip GBPJPY upside down faster than a bad earnings report tanks a meme stock. The Hidden Formula Only Experts Use Most traders make the same mistake: they react after the news drops. The real pros? They anticipate the impact. Here’s how: 1. Pre-News Positioning Before the release of UK retail sales data, institutional traders often position themselves based on forecasts. If expectations show a drop in retail sales, GBPJPY could start weakening in anticipation. Ninja move: Look at leading indicators like consumer confidence reports or credit card spending trends to get a head start. If those are weak, retail sales are likely to disappoint, setting up a short opportunity on GBPJPY before the report even drops. 2. The "Fade the Fake Move" Strategy Retail sales reports often trigger an initial knee-jerk reaction. However, in many cases, the first move gets reversed within the next 30-60 minutes. This is because algo traders and news traders pile in quickly, creating an artificial spike. Ninja move: Wait for the first 15-30 minutes after the release and look for signs of reversal before entering your trade. If the initial reaction was a sharp GBPJPY pump but lacks follow-through, a fade trade (shorting after the spike) could be a golden ticket. 3. The "Crossfire Effect"—Why Japan Matters Too Retail sales aren’t just about the UK. Since you’re trading GBPJPY, you need to check Japan’s economic calendar as well. If Japan releases strong economic data around the same time (like GDP or inflation reports), it can magnify GBPJPY moves. Example: If UK retail sales are strong but Japan also releases solid GDP figures, GBPJPY may struggle to break higher because the yen is holding its ground. In contrast, if Japan’s numbers are weak, the GBPJPY rally could be explosive. How to Predict Market Moves with Precision Even seasoned traders sometimes get caught in GBPJPY’s wild swings. Here are some data-backed hacks to sharpen your predictions: - Check historical reactions: Look at how GBPJPY reacted to past retail sales reports. If strong sales consistently led to a rally, you have a playbook to follow. - Use correlations: Compare GBPJPY’s moves with FTSE 100 and UK bond yields. If stock markets rally on strong retail sales, GBPJPY often follows. - Watch liquidity hours: The most explosive GBPJPY moves happen during London and Tokyo sessions overlap (around 7-9 AM GMT). Timing your entries right can make all the difference. Why Most Traders Get It Wrong (And How You Can Avoid It) 1. Ignoring the Big Picture Retail sales don’t exist in a vacuum. If inflation is a major concern for the Bank of England, strong retail sales could signal future rate hikes—bullish for GBPJPY. If inflation is cooling, strong retail data might not move the needle much. Context matters. 2. FOMO Trading the Initial Move New traders chase the first spike, only to get wrecked when it reverses. Solution: Wait for the real trend to emerge. The market often digests the data differently after the dust settles. 3. Overlooking Risk Management GBPJPY is a beast. A small mistake can wipe out days of profit. Always use stop losses and adjust your position size based on volatility. Final Takeaway: Turning Chaos into Opportunity Trading GBPJPY around UK retail sales is like navigating a storm. But with the right strategies—pre-news positioning, fading fake moves, and factoring in Japan’s economy—you can turn unpredictable swings into calculated profit opportunities. Remember: The biggest edge in trading isn’t just knowing what happened; it’s knowing what’s likely to happen next. Keep refining your approach, track your trades, and keep learning. And if you want even more exclusive strategies, check out StarseedFX’s premium insights at StarseedFX.com. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated Read the full article

[inkovsky]

The Hang Seng Index opened 33 points lower at 20,858 points, tested the 20,800 point level before rebounding, rising as much as 322 points to 21,213 points; it rose 241 points or 1.15% for the day to 21,133 points; the Technology Index rose 90 points or 1.79% to 5,150 points. The Main Board's turnover was HK$246.3 billion.

Hong Kong stocks showed strength after the Chinese New Year reopened last week. The Hang Seng Index broke through the previous rebound high of 20,200 points with a large bullish candle, and advanced into the resistance zone of 21,000 to 21,300 points on Friday. It is expected to consolidate in the short term. Once there is favorable news during the March earnings period, it is expected to further push up the market. The Hang Seng Index is expected to test 22,000 points and is expected to hit the 22,700 point mark again. The current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is still low, and it is believed that most of the negative factors such as the trade war have been reflected. The bottom of the Hang Seng Index's moving range continues to move upward, and it is expected that it will have the opportunity to remain above 20,000 points this year.

The US-China trade war has begun, but it has not stopped HSBC Holdings (00005) from rising for five days in the past week, breaking the HK$80 mark to hit a seven-year high. It has risen by more than 34% in the past year. If it "restores" the historical high of HK$ 140.586 on October 15, 2007, it is still more than 40% away from last Friday's closing price of HK 81.8 .

European stock markets softened slightly, with UK, French and German stocks falling 0.31%, 0.43% and 0.53% respectively.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4% in January, and consumer inflation expectations soared, driving up bond yields. President Trump then said he planned to announce reciprocal tariffs on several countries next week, and rising concerns about a trade war dragged down U.S. stocks further. After a brief stabilization on Friday, the U.S. stock market continued to be under pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened slightly higher by 14 points before falling as much as 467 points to a low of 44,279 points. The S&P 500 fell 1.05% at one point, and the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, turned around and fell 1.53%.

At the close of U.S. stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 44,303, down 444 points, or 0.99%; the S&P 500 fell 57 points, or 0.95%, to 6,025; and the Nasdaq fell 268 points, or 1.36%, to 19,523.

[newsmatik]

What do bond yields mean for investors?

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free . I’ve never been a big fan of bonds, but I don’t mind rising bond yields. UK 10-year bond yields were below 3.8 percent last September and are now 4.8 percent. In September, the US Federal Reserve published a “dot signal” indicating that interest rates will fall to 3 percent by December next year. That prediction is written. Since the November presidential…

[masr356]

Retail investors flock to gilts in first two weeks of 2025 | masr356.com

Stay informed with free updates Simply sign up to the Investments myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox. Consumers poured money into gilts in the first half of January after a sell-off in UK debt markets pushed up yields and lured in retail investors hoping to make tax-free gains. UK government borrowing costs have risen in recent months as a global bond sell-off coincided with concerns…

[capitalspport]

Top Four Events That Could Shape Markets This Week

The week begins with Donald Trump’s inauguration.

UK labor market data may challenge expectations of a BoE rate cut.

Global PMI figures could underscore differences in global growth trends.

The Bank of Japan is poised to raise interest rates, with subsequent actions likely to impact the Yen.

Last week brought significant economic developments that could shape market trends in Q1. Key among them was a batch of data indicating a return of disinflation in the US and UK. While one month of data doesn’t confirm a trend, sustained disinflation would signal easing price pressures, reassuring central banks. Markets responded positively to progress toward inflation targets. Another notable event was a drop in global bond yields. Following turmoil in the UK bond market earlier this month, UK 10-year yields declined by over 22bps, while US 10-year Treasury yields fell by 15bps.

Markets witnessed a rush to price in interest rate cuts last week. For the UK, expectations now reflect more than 2.5 rate cuts in 2024, with a 90% probability of a Bank of England rate cut in February. In the US, the likelihood of a June rate cut increased to 44%, up from 40% a week earlier. However, this strong market reaction to a single data release raises concerns, particularly given that the timing of the UK’s December inflation survey might have skewed its inflation reading. Meanwhile, the US economy is projected to have grown by 3% in Q4, per the Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast, suggesting potential overheating and renewed inflation risks in the future.

Despite these concerns, markets rallied globally, reflecting investor relief. The Eurostoxx 50 climbed 3.4%, the FTSE 100 reached a record high with a 3.1% gain, and US indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively. Mid-cap stocks outperformed, with the FTSE 250 up more than 4% and the Russell 2000 just under 4%. However, Germany’s MDax underperformed the Dax, possibly reflecting ongoing challenges in German economic growth.

In Japan, speculation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) gained traction, with an 83% probability of a 20bps hike this month and expectations of another hike later. This marks a slow but steady normalization of Japanese interest rates, which is unlikely to disrupt global capital flows significantly due to Japan’s high public debt. The yen responded strongly, becoming the top-performing G10 currency last week and reversing its underperformance in 2024.

In FX markets, the British pound’s performance this week warrants attention. Despite the recovery in UK bonds, the pound lagged and was among the weakest G10 currencies. This may indicate skepticism over the sustainability of the bond market rally, sensitivity to rising rate cut expectations, or a delayed reaction that could lead to a rebound. All three factors likely weigh on the pound’s recovery, making its movements this week particularly notable.

RED MORE — Understanding the History and Evolution of Bitcoin : Future Trends

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Trump 2.0

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