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rickjsposts · 5 years ago

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Market slightly down Thurs AM, Market forward looking, Covid self inflicted wounds, a 90% winning naked put sale technique, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Thursday morning

New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/market-slightly-down-thurs-am-market-forward-looking-covid-self-inflicted-wounds-a-90-winning-naked-put-sale-technique-updated-political-odds-my-thoughts-for-a-thursday-morning/

Market slightly down Thurs AM, Market forward looking, Covid self inflicted wounds, a 90% winning naked put sale technique, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Thursday morning

The markets have had quite a run from the bottom at the end of March. In just 2.5 months Spy has went from 220 to 312.18. That is a 41.9% gain in just 2.5 months!

We are at the 76.5% retracement and also at a short term resistance area.

This morning the markets are taking a breather( as expected ) with DIA -.44% QQQ -.30% SPY -.56% and IWM -1.1%

TLT +.35% @CL -1.5% $vix.x +2.30% GLD +.58%

Overall this looks like a small gap down, but I would not expect it to pick up much steam to the downside without any surprises. The Fed is flooding liquidity into the market. In addition, the markets are forward-looking and do not necessarily reflect the facts as they exist today. Thus, The Covid is behind us for the most part, the rioting should subside, the economy might slip technically into a recession however it will be very short-lived.

That is how I see it:)

Also, the markets are building in not only the Fed staying accommodative, but also a Trump win in November. If Trump were to lose or be removed this market will take a nosedive that no one has seen in their lifetime.

The reason is simple a Trump loss would mean higher taxes, higher regulations which were the cause of the economic stagnation we saw under Obamas 8 years. But this time would be much worse, as the Dems would rush to reverse everything Trump has done to move this economy.

Of course, Covid has hit the country hard. Much most of the wounds have been self-inflicted.

The committee to handle the virus was made up almost entirely of liberals. All had an allegiance to Clinton and Obama, none to Trump. In addition, historically the CDC has had a horrible track record. But yet the scientists making the recommendations were almost entirely from the CDC. There were many far better experts available from diverse backgrounds that would have did a much better job managing through this.

Liberal governors sent Covid Patients to Nursing homes. Now, the logic behind that escapes me. In NY and NYC they had a hospital ship and a new hospital that was never used. But many governors in concert sent covid patients to nursing homes. This turned out to be a death sentence for many seniors. Over 20,000 of them

The restricting of hydroxychloroquine from being prescribed off label has cost lives. Now all over the world front line health care workers are taking this drug as a prophylactic, and it is working. In addition, many countries like India are using it for their citizens as a prophylactic with success. The evidence is overwhelming that this drug is safe and works for most people.

So the death toll should have been much lower. But some Democrat Governors would have none of it. And the end result is 80% of the Covid deaths are in Democrat states. With about 50% in nursing homes.

The number could have easily been cut in half, which would have made it far less of a risk than the ordinary flu.

That is how off the rails politics has become. Your life expectancy in a blue city or state is much less than a Red City or Red State.

But that is now past, and if anyone can bring the economy and jobs back its the person that got the U.S. to all-time records numbers in a very quick fashion.

Saying that the odds are now in Bidens favor of winning in November. Biden is a 55/45 favorite which is right where I place my wager on Trump. I suspect Trump may well lost in November when you consider the 24/7 negative news media, and the rampant voter fraud. In addition, many Republicans are self-destructing in front of our eyes. The Senate is a disgrace.

So, the President has his work cut out for him in November. Remember, we had Russia, Russia, Russia, , then Ukraine, then Covid, and now rioting over someone killed by the police. These riots just like the proceeding reactions to the events are all orchestrated to try to bring Trump down in November. I suspect something else will be next.

Humans can only take so much before they are finally influenced by the media spin. Human’s track records on voting is abysmal. So while logically I would expect a Trump landslide, knowing human nature anything might happen.

Myself, I have a portfolio of mostly high yielding instruments. I have been back to some swing trading, as the markets are looking reasonable now. And with sports pretty much in limbo my time has been available to take a look at some high % strategies for trading options.

The one I am using now is selling cash-secured puts on Thursday with a Friday expiration. This technique, with my filters, backtested out so well, I have been trading it now for a few months.

My record to date has been 119 trades. 106 winner and 13 losers. That is an 89.08% win rate with a profit factor of 4.52. The drawdown has been virtually nothing.

That is quite a graph:) Much better then any other trading or handicapping method I have come up with by far.

I give these trades out to all my sports subscribers for free on Slack. You have to be a subscriber to the sports service, however, all subscribers subscriptions are on pause pending the start of the MLB season. So, you can get these trades by subscribing on my web site under the PayPal menu with a monthly subscription.

To get these trades for free until then all you need to do is :

Go to my website: rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Use the PayPal dropdown menu and sign up for the monthly subscription

These all come with a 3-day free trial

I will immediately suspend your subscription so you do not get charged

I will then send you an invitation to join my slack channel where I send the trades.

In addition, you are free to ask any questions on slack at any time on any subject.

So you will get these trades and all my other swing trades for free until sports starts up. Then you can decide if you wish to continue.

Now, let’s take a look at the political odds:

Dem Nominee:

Biden 89/11 +9 Pts Sanders 2/82 No Change Clinton 6/94 -1 Pts Cuomo 2/98 -1 Pt

Its looking more and more like its going to be Biden. However, do not rule out something strange happening at the Dem convention:)

Dem VP Nomination:

Harris 40/60 +3 Pts Klobuchar 5/75 -15 Pts Abrams 7/93 -1 Pts Warren 11/89 -2 Pts Masto 1/99 -7 Pts Whitmer: 5/95 -2 Pts

It’s looking more and more like Harris. However, Harris does not help him one bit. Biden already has Ca. And the idea that Harris is female and an African American does not outweigh her negatives.

Presidential winner:

Trump 45/55 -4 Pts I have a small amount of equity on my wager getting 45/55 Biden 55/45 +11 Pts

Clinton 3/97 -2 Pts

I Still like Trump at even money or better. The media has again portrayed a race where trump is understated. The base has not left him but gotten stronger, and independents are flocking to the Republicans after seeing what Dems are doing to their states and cities. The backlash logically should be breathtaking.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 53/47 +3 Pts

Again I believe the value is on the Republicans

Control of the House:

81/19 Democrats: No change( I took 3 to 1)

Getting 4 to 1 is turning out to be the best overlay on the card right now. Someone must know something that I do not know, but, I do not see how much has changed for the House members that are in Trump districts. If anything they have gotten worse. Another good wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”

Control of the Senate:

50/50 in favor of the Republicans No Change

I actually think the Republicans could lose the Senate. Collins has self-destructed, although they will pick up Alabama. But in Georgia establishment, Republicans are making the same mistake they made in Alabama in 2018. Loeffler is damaged goods with insider trading. Collins, however, is a cinch if he gets the nomination. But the establishment is pulling out all stops to defeat him in the primary.

Add that to some of the policy-making decisions of the Republican Senate and they are not very popular. They only have a 3 person advantage in the Senate. So, I view the Senate race right now as a tossup, only because the establishment Republicans are making bad decisions while undermining Trump in the process. Collins is the prime example. It is almost like she is throwing her seat to the Dems.

I would still bet on the Republicans but the much better wager is taking the odds in the House for value.

Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 96/4+1 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1 Right now it is looking grim for my wager. Although the technical recession will be very short-lived.

The best wager of the year will be fading the dirty 30 in the House. They are all incumbents, and all will most likely be +odds. So you only need to go 50% to make money. I cannot imagine not hitting 60%+ on these.

That’s it for today,

RickJ RickJ’s Handicapping Picks rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing Skype:riccja

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logical-invest-asset-allocation · 6 years ago

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Updated asset allocation models

With the start of our new application we have added new strategies, portfolios and some popular lazy portfolios as starting point for further research.

We’ve been asked by some followers to provide a short summary of the available options, so here it is:

Strategy: Top 3 Strategies: This strategy selects the top three performers from our core strategies, based on the most recent 3 month performance, and allocates one third to each of them.Note that very often the strategy will invest in the more aggressive of our strategies, which might not be suitable for all investors. You can create your version of this strategy with our Portfolio Builder. Simply select the top 2, 3, or 4 strategies and assign equal weights to each or adjust your allocations for your risk level. You will need to manually review and update the top performers periodically.

Strategy: Bond ETF Rotation Strategy: The Bond Rotation Strategy is one of our core investment strategies. It is appropriate for investors looking to collect bond dividends while pursuing growth by rotating between bond sectors. The strategy evaluates and allocates to the best performing bond ETFs including treasuries, TIPS, foreign, high-yield and convertible bonds. This is a good strategy if you are looking for a safe long-term investment with low risk.

Strategy: BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy: The BUG strategy is one of our more conservative strategies. The strategy does not attempt to predict prices or the future state of the economy. It holds a broad diversified number of assets that complement each other, each performing well in a different economic environment such as inflation, deflation, growth and stagnation. It is meant for long term, steady growth and low risk.It inherits part of its logic from Harry Browne’s tried-and-true Permanent Portfolio and the publicized workings of the All-Weather portfolio.

Portfolio: Conservative Risk Portfolio: Recommended for: Capital preservation, liquidity and for investors close to or in retirement.The Conservative Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a low risk tolerance or a need to make withdrawals over the next 1 to 3 years. Conservative investors are willing to accept lower returns in exchange for lower account drawdowns in periods of market volatility.To be compatible with most retirement plans, this Portfolio does not include our Maximum Yield Strategy and leveraged Universal Investment Strategy. If you are using a more flexible account you can choose from our unconstrained portfolios in the Portfolio Library.We also offer a version for 401k plans which do not allow individual stocks.

Portfolio: Max Drawdown less than 10%: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the maximum Drawdown, that is the highest drop from peak to valley over the analyzed period, to 10%. As a reference, the maximum experienced drawdown of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) over the same period has been 27%, while the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) experienced a drop of 55%.As such it is a moderate Portfolio suited for investors with a limited risk tolerance and moderate growth expectations.Please note that the Maximum DrawDown refers to a single event, for analyzing the risk of losses you should also consider other related metrics like the maximum and average duration and the Ulcer Ratio. A more reliable measure for the downside risk of an asset over a period of time is the Downside Deviation or Volatility.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements

Portfolio: Max Drawdown less than 15%: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the maximum Drawdown, that is the highest drop from peak to valley over the analyzed period, to 15%. As a reference, the maximum experienced drawdown of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) over the same period has been 27%, while the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) experienced a drop of 55%.As such it is a aggressive Portfolio suited for investors with a higher risk tolerance and aggressive growth expectations.Please note that the Maximum DrawDown refers to a single event, for analyzing the risk of losses you should also consider other related metrics like the maximum and average duration and the Ulcer Ratio. A more reliable measure for the downside risk of an asset over a period of time is the Downside Deviation or Volatility.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Strategy: Gold-Currency Strategy II: The Gold-Currency Strategy II takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.This strategy is an update to the original GLD-USD strategy that uses inverse leveraged ETFs which are not permitted in some retirement accounts.

Strategy: Global Market Rotation Strategy: The Global Market Rotation Strategy is one of our core investment strategies. The strategy invests on a monthly basis in one of five broad global markets. It hedges the global equity exposure with variable allocation to the HEDGE sub-strategy.

Strategy: The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version: This is the aggressive version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Strategy: Global Sector Rotation Strategy: The Global Sector Rotation Strategy (OTC:GSRS) provides a good diversification to our other strategies. The strategy invests in the top two performing global sectors. Global sector ETFs often display well-defined, long lasting, up or down trends which makes them a good fit rotation strategies. Another advantage of sector rotation strategies is that even in sideways markets, there are often still individual sectors that are performing well.This strategy consists of three sub-strategies: GSRS aggressive , GSRS low-volatility and the HEDGE sub-strategies.

Strategy: The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version: This is the low volatility version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Strategy: Hedge Strategy: This sub-strategy looks at two components and chooses the most appropriate one: A Treasury and a GLD-USD sub-strategy. The addition of gold provides an option for prolonged inflationary environments that could place bonds in a multi-year bear market.The equity/bond (or in our case HEDGE) pair is interesting because most of the time these two asset classes profit from an inverse correlation. If there is a real stock market correction, money typically flows towards treasuries and gold rewarding holders and providing crash protection.

Strategy: Maximum Yield Strategy: The Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy is a high-performing, high-risk investment strategy that rebalances twice a month. It trades one of the most profitable asset classes, volatility, by rebalancing a portfolio between two ETFs: ZIV (VelocityShares Inverse VIX Medium-Term ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Treasury 3X ETF).When you trade inverse volatility, which means going short VIX, you play the role of an insurer who sells worried investors an insurance policy to protect them from falling stock markets. Investing in inverse volatility means nothing more than taking over the risk and collecting this insurance premium from worried investors. This obviously needs to be done carefully by following a rules-based strategy.This strategy is a good way to profit from VIX contango while minimizing heavy losses during volatility spikes. Since treasury bonds and inverse volatility have shown significant negative correlation to each other, the strategy reduces losses during financial crisis by switching early into treasuries. It is still a risky strategy and large drawdown are to be expected, so we recommend allocating no more than 15% of your overall portfolio.For more information on trading “short volatility”, read our original whitepaper on the topic.

Portfolio: Max Sharpe Portfolio: This portfolio has been optimized to provide the highest Sharpe Ratio, which is a metric that compares the amount of return versus the amount of risk, based on historical data. Return is based on CAGR and risk is based on volatility. The portfolio is well suited for risk adverse investors with moderate growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Portfolio: Minimum Volatility Portfolio: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the lowest possible historical volatility over the analyzed period with the involved assets. As such, it exhibits the least risk of all our portfolios, and is therefore suited especially for very risk adverse investors with conservative growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Portfolio: Moderate Risk Portfolio: Recommended for: Capital accumulation, savers and investors 10–20 years from retirement. The Moderate Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a medium risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than five years. Moderate investors are willing to accept periods of moderate market volatility in exchange for the possibility of receiving returns that outpace inflation by a significant margin.Tobe compatible with most retirement plans, this Portfolio does not include our Maximum Yield Strategy and leveraged Universal Investment Strategy. If you are using a more flexible account you can choose from our unconstrained portfolios in the Portfolio Library.We also offer a version for 401k plans which do not allow individual stocks.

Strategy: NASDAQ 100 Strategy: The Nasdaq 100 Strategy is a good way to ride the extraordinary momentum of the Nasdaq 100 Index while keeping some protection from market downturns. It is also a great alternative for stock-pickers looking for a rules-based stock selection strategy.The strategy uses a risk-adjusted momentum algorithm to choose the top four Nasdaq 100 stocks with a variable allocation to treasuries or gold to smooth the equity curve and provide crash protection in bear markets. The strategy combines well with our more conservative strategies, such as the Bond Rotation Strategy or BUG, or with one of our non-U.S. equity strategies such as World Top 4, to form a well balanced portfolio.The existence of price momentum has been heavily studied and well documented over the years. It reveals itself in assets that have strong absolute performance or performance relative to their peers. Logical Invest has exploited asset class and sector momentum in many of our strategies for years. We have found individual stock momentum tends to be an even stronger force, particularly in the top NASDAQ stocks. When properly identified, it can be capitalized on to provide an investment edge.During bull markets, and especially “risk off” periods, the strongest NASDAQ stocks typically beat the market handily. However, they can also get ahead of themselves which makes them more vulnerable during “risk on” periods. To manage those challenges, the strategy incorporates several advanced methodologies:Mean Reversion — Momentum is based on the principle of buying high and selling higher, however, as most investors have experienced, stocks that rise too quickly can also have short-term corrections. The strategy uses a mean reversion component to penalize stocks that rise too much or too fast.Protection — The strategy allocates a portion to treasuries to balance out the supercharged Nasdaq momentum stocks. This improves risk adjusted returns and moderates strategy drawdowns. The model also allocates more to treasuries if the overall Nasdaq 100 index exhibits momentum weakness.Intelligent Ranking — Our algorithms ensures we get the right blend of stocks that work well together and have an allocation to each individual stock that reflects its volatility in relation to other stocks.

Strategy: NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Strategy: The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy.

Strategy: Enhanced Permanent Portfolio Strategy: The classic permanent portfolio was created by Harry Browne. The idea was that a portfolio should be diversified enough to get you through a wide variety of economic and market environments and simple enough that even a child could do it. Originally it consisted of the following allocations:25% in U.S. stocks25% in long-term bonds25% in gold25% in cashThe Logical Invest permanent portfolio is somewhat more sophisticated, rebalances monthly and is not always split evenly across the three main assets. It can adapt to market conditions by putting more weight on gold or treasuries and less on equity depending on market conditions.

Strategy: Leveraged Universal Investment Strategy: The 3X Universal Investment Strategy (UISx3) is a leveraged version of our core Universal Investment Strategy (UIS), an evolved, intelligent version of the classic 60/40 equity/bond portfolio that can adapt to current conditions, shifting portfolio weight away from stocks in difficult markets and adding weight to equity in bull runs.The 3x leveraged version of the strategy employs SPXL, TMF and UGLD, which are the leveraged versions of the S&P 500 ETF, the Treasury 20+ year ETF and the Gold ETF. Unlike the base UIS, the leveraged version only uses TMF and UGLD to hedge SPXL exposure.The UISx3 is appropriate for investors who are comfortable taking on higher risks in exchange for the potential for of higher returns. Because leveraged ETFs are used, we recommend allocating no more than 15% of your total portfolio to this strategy.

Strategy: Universal Investment Strategy: Mitigate market drawdowns and preserve capital when markets correct: The Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) is one of our core investment strategies. It is an evolved, intelligent version of the classic 60/40 equity/bond portfolio. Much like the classic portfolio, UIS holds both the S&P 500 index and bonds. However, UIS can intelligently adapt to current conditions by shifting weight away from stocks in difficult markets and adding weight in bullish markets.Instead of using simple bond ETF, UIS uses a sub-strategy, called HEDGE, which can choose between different types of safe-heaven ETFs.The equity/bond (or in our case equity/HEDGE) pair is interesting because most of the time these two asset classes profit from an inverse correlation. If there is a real stock market correction, usually ETFs included in the HEDGE strategy (Treasuries, Gold, etc) are the ‘safe’ assets where money flows to, providing crash protection.

Strategy: US sectors long worst US sectors: Investment Portfolio: A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It goes long the worst performing U.S. sectors assuming they may rebound.

Strategy: US Sector Rotation Strategy: The U.S. Sector strategy allocates dynamically between four long U.S. sector sub-strategies and one short U.S. sector strategy. Each of the four long sub-strategies use different momentum and mean reversion criteria. The short U.S. sector sub-strategy is used as a hedge to limit losses in case of a large market correction.Due to the low correlation of these strategies, the combination creates a strategy with a considerably higher Sharpe Ratio than a simple sector rotation. The addition of the negatively correlated short strategy significantly reduces volatility and drawdowns during difficult market periods.What makes this strategy interesting is that it does not rely on either treasuries or bonds to hedge in times of market stress, it uses the short US sector strategy instead. The hedging mechanism is purely “short equity” and unrelated to whether interest rates rise, a common concern when holding bonds in a portfolio.The strategy uses SPDR sector ETFs, but you can replace these with the corresponding sector ETFs or futures from other issuers.US sectors have historically been good for trend following systems because each sector usually over or under performs for long periods at a time due to longer lasting economic cycles and not just short-term market fluctuations.The economy itself is not a linear stable system, but swings between periods of expansion (growth) and contraction (recession). This results in a series of market cycles which are visualized in the following picture.Source: http://www.nowandfutures.com(Global Business Cycles)Each market cycle favors different industry sectors. The goal of a good working strategy is to choose the best performing sectors while avoiding or even shorting the worst performing sectors.You can read the original strategy whitepaper for more details.

Portfolio: Volatility less than 10%: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the historical volatility to 10% or less over the analyzed period with the involved assets. As a reference, the volatility limit of 10% is about two thirds of the volatility, or risk, of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY).As such it is a conservative Portfolio suited for risk adverse investors with moderate growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Portfolio: Volatility less than 15%: Mitigate market drawdowns and preserve capital when markets correct: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the historical volatility to 15% or less over the analyzed period. As a reference, the volatility limit of 15% is slightly below the historical volatility, or risk, of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY). This is an aggressive portfolio suited for investors with a relatively high risk tolerance and aggressive growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Portfolio: Volatility less than 7%: Mitigate market drawdowns and preserve capital when markets correct: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the historical volatility to 7% or less over the analyzed period with the involved assets. The volatility limit of 7% equals about half the volatility, or risk, of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF — TLT.As such it is a very conservative Portfolio suited for very risk adverse investors with conservative growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Strategy: World Top 4 Strategy: The World Country Top 4 Strategy is a momentum driven strategy that invests in the top four single country ETFs. It will add geographic diversity to your portfolio with significant non-U.S. equity exposure.The strategy consists of four sub-strategies. Each sub-strategy invests in the best country ETF in a specific geographic area (i.e., Africa, Asia, Latin America, etc). These strategies are then combined to yield four country ETFs that come from different geographic segments, thus avoiding overconcentration. So even if one region is outperforming all the other areas, this strategy will still diversify among three additional top performing regions.Like our other equity-based strategies, this strategy is hedged with a sub-strategy (HEDGE) that includes, amongst others, safe heaven assets like treasuries and gold.

Portfolio: Aggressive Risk Portfolio: Recommended for: Capital growth, speculation and young investors.The Aggressive Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a high risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than 10 years. Aggressive investors should be willing to accept periods of extreme ups and downs in exchange for the possibility of receiving higher relative returns over the long term. A longer time horizon is needed to allow time for investments to recover in the event of a sharp downturn. This portfolio is heavily weighted with stocks which are historically more volatile than bonds.Tobe compatible with most retirement plans, this Portfolio does not include our Maximum Yield Strategy and leveraged Universal Investment Strategy. If you are using a more flexible account you can choose from our unconstrained portfolios in the Portfolio Library.We also offer a version for 401k plans which do not allow individual stocks.

Strategy: NASDAQ 100 Balanced unhedged: The NASDAQ 100 is a sub- strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge.

Strategy: NASDAQ 100 Leaders Strategy: The NASDAQ 100 leaders is a sub- strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge. $GLD #savings #money

Strategy: Short Term Bond Strategy: The Short Term Bond Strategy is essentially a place to park cash that earns interest. When combined with other higher risk strategies it creates a lower risk portfolio and generally improves the portfolio’s Sharpe ratio. If your broker pays interest on cash balances that is comparable to the current yield of this strategy, you can choose to keep this allocation in cash instead.

Strategy: Dow 30 Strategy: We developed the Dow 30 Top 4 Strategy some years ago together with the Nasdaq 100 strategy. We waited to published it because the Nasdaq 100 Top 4 Strategy was outperforming the Dow Strategy in the technology driven bull market we’ve had in recent years. Going forward however, the Dow 30 Top 4 Strategy could be very beneficial, as stock picking becomes much more important in volatile, sideways moving markets.The performance of the Dow 30 strategy is quite similar to the simpler US Market Strategy, however in volatile markets like this year, the stock picking Dow 30 outperformed. Notably, the February drawdown was only half of the US Market Strategy as the Dow Strategy excludes high volatility stocks.

Strategy: US Market Strategy: The U.S. Market Strategy was designed as an alternative to our Universal Investment Strategy which allocates between SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and TLT (U.S. Treasuries ETF). The equity component of this new strategy switches between SPY (S&P500), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), DIA (Dow 30) and SPLV (S&P 500 low volatility) so it can take advantage of different market conditions. The addition of SPLV provides a good defensive option in times of high market volatility. In addition to U.S. equities, the strategy utilizes a hedge strategy that switches between TLT, TIP, UUP and GLD.The strategy’s backtests performed substantially better than a simple SPY-TLT investment. All of the component ETFs are very liquid with small spreads making them easy to trade with negligible costs.

Portfolio: Moderate Risk Portfolio for 401: Recommended for: Capital accumulation, savers and investors 10–20 years from retirement. The Moderate Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a medium risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than five years. Moderate investors are willing to accept periods of moderate market volatility in exchange for the possibility of receiving returns that outpace inflation by a significant margin.Tobe compatible with most retirement plans, this Portfolio does not include our Maximum Yield Strategy and leveraged Universal Investment Strategy. If you are using a more flexible account you can choose from our unconstrained portfolios in the Portfolio Library.We also offer a version for plans which do allow single stocks.

Strategy: Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy: The Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.This version of the strategy uses inverse leveraged ETFs to generate higher returns, but some retirement accounts are restricted from trading these ETFs. GLD-UUP provides an alternate form of the strategy without leveraged ETFs which also lowers the overall return and volatility.

Portfolio: Aronson Family Taxable Portfolio: Ted Aronson is an asset manager. His family taxable account portfolio has been featured and tracked by MarketWatch.com’s lazy portfolios, maintained by Paul Farrel. The lazy portfolio has done very well prior to 2008–2009 crash.

Portfolio: Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold: Paul Merriman’s Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold. Another Lazy Portfolio that is tracked by MarketWatch.Merriman describes it: The “ultimate” portfolio starts with the S&P 500 index SPX then adds small and equal portions of nine other very carefully selected U.S. and international asset classes, each one being an excellent long-term vehicle for diversifying. When it’s properly done, the result is a low-cost portfolio with massive diversification that will take advantage of market opportunities wherever they are, and at about the same risk as that of the SP 500.”

Portfolio: Coffeehouse Portfolio: The Coffeehouse Portfolio was popularized by financial advisor Bill Schultheis in the best-selling book The Coffeehouse Investor. It is part of what we could call “Lazy Portfolios”.The Coffeehouse Portfolio consists of 7 funds. It starts with a 60/40 stock bond allocation. The 60% in stocks is allocated to a large-cap fund, a large-cap value fund, a small-cap fund, a small-cap value fund, an international fund, and a REIT fund.

Portfolio: Margaritaville Portfolio: The Margaritaville portfolio was proposed by Scott Burns, a popular Dallas Morning News financial columnist. It consists of one part total stock index, one part international stock index, and one part inflation-protected Treasury securities

Portfolio: Dr. Bernstein’s No Brainer Portfolio: Dr. William Bernstein is a physician and neurologist as well as a financial adviser to high net worth individuals. This one’s so simple: Allocate 25% in each of four index funds diversified across basic categories.

Portfolio: Dr. Bernstein’s Smart Money Portfolio: Dr. William Bernstein is a physician and neurologist as well as a financial adviser to high net worth individuals.

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Portfolio: Yale U’s Unconventional Portfolio: David Swensen is manager of Yale University’s endowment fund. He has addressed how investors should set up and manage their investments in his book, Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment.The Swensen portfolio consists of six core asset class allocations:US equity: 30%Foreign developed equity: 15%Emerging market equity: 5%US REITS: 20%US Treasury bonds: 15%US TIPS: 15%

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maybellemadsen7-blog · 7 years ago

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Effective ways to Receive THOUSAND Targeted Visitors To Your Site Monthly Free Of Charge?

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alanafsmith · 7 years ago

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The law firms with the most supportive trainees in Britain 2017-18

Dog-eat-dog or vegan commune?

We asked over 2,000 trainees and junior lawyers at the leading corporate law firms how supportive their peers are.

Contrary to the popular backstabbing City stereotype, the results were pretty good, with none of the 61 featured firms scoring below a B in this category of the Legal Cheek Trainee and Junior Lawyer Survey 2017-18.

Some, however, did rather better than others — with ten standout performers bagging an A*. In alphabetical order, they are…

Bird & Bird

The trainee cohort at Bird & Bird is described as “more of a group of friends than colleagues”. As one rookie says of his work pals: “They’re a great bunch of people.”

What’s the secret behind the kinship?

Look no further than Two Birds’ legendary mini World Cup football tournament, which sees teams from across the firm’s 28 international offices come together to battle it out in a festival of firm bonding. As you would expect, the footie is optional, with most just enjoying the opportunity to “meet international colleagues over a weekend of partying”. This year’s event was held in The Hague.

Read Bird & Bird’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Bristows

As a firm with a single office and a small intake of just ten trainees a year, nurturing a supportive work environment comes naturally for Bristows.

As one trainee puts it: “The small trainee community is very close-knit.” With fewer people to work with, here’s hoping you get along with most of them. But if you’re a good fit, you’ll be part of a selected cohort that “all work really well as a team”.

What’s more, fellow trainees know how to take one for the team. They “are happy to help each other out when one of us is busier”, an insider tells us. Another confirms that “there’s always people to lend a helping hand when one of us is swamped with work”.

Because of Bristows’ focus on IP work, a good handful of its trainees have science PhDs to their name. This common ground could be why they gel so easily.

Read Bristows’ full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Burges Salmon

With all of the firm’s approximately 60 trainees based in Burges Salmon’s delightful Bristol office, which is set around a light-filled central atrium, this is a place where everyone knows each other.

Trainees are encouraged to move beyond their desks, and interact with colleagues. With many living relatively near each other, and even walking to work together, there’s almost a university vibe.

But Burges Salmon is a hard-working place too, with a reputation for being the elite firm in Bristol. Certainly its culture can be more City than West Country at times. This is where the strength of the trainees’ ties comes into its own.

One rookie tells us that their peers “are very friendly and will step in to help out if we are very busy”.

Read Burges Salmon’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Hill Dickinson

Despite running into some trouble as of late, with some disappointing financial results and rumours of a merger swirling, spirits remain high at the junior end of Liverpool-based international outfit Hill Dickinson.

A supportive work culture is just what it needs to pull through tough times. Luckily, the trainee cohort really gets along.

Trainees are “so supportive and we get on so well that I have to keep reminding myself that I’m in direct competition with some of them”, jokes one. Another tells us that “everyone I work with is lovely and supportive — from partners to paralegals”.

Note that although “everyone is friendly”, sometimes that “depends on their mood”. Peer support might not be as readily available on a grey Monday morning…

But mostly it’s “easy to go for drinks whenever you want”, with camerarderie aided by “3 or 4 firm wide events a year” as well as monthly “pay day drinks” to celebrate the hard work.

Read Hill Dickinson’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Mills & Reeve

Despite a reported lack of “proper coffee” at Mills & Reeve, its trainees remain cheery. Indeed, the “tub of Nescafe instant” available at most of the firm’s offices has perhaps contributed to forging a Blitz spirit among the M&R young.

As one rookie tells us, “the teams are very co-operative”. Practice area-wide peer support keeps the good vibes going across the firm’s regional offices. Expect “a lot of cross department working on transactions”, which no doubt helps shape the “very supportive” work ethos at the firm.

The unusually equal trainee pay across the firm’s locations probably has a role to play in creating a culture of mutual support and respect. Cut-throat competition is at a minimum, and trainees actually like each other, we understand. As a rookie, “you are respected by everyone in the firm — both on a work and personal level” an insider reports. That’s certainly not something you hear at all law firms.

Read Mills & Reeve’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Osborne Clarke

With its 19 offices, including recent openings in Shanghai, San Francisco and Amsterdam, Osborne Clarke spreads far and wide. Despite this expansion, it hasn’t lost its friendly and “down to earth” culture. “There is genuinely no one in the firm that I don’t feel I could ask for help and support if I needed it,” an insider reports.

The ample support filters through all levels at the firm, and “ranges from fellow trainees and support staff to senior partners”. Despite the City hours, “people have so much time to discuss things, help and advise, no matter how busy they are”, an OC trainee tells us. The open plan layout has a role to play in this. No wonder the trainees are pretty well-integrated and describe each other as “lovely”.

While it’s “clear to see in some cases why the legal industry has a reputation for cut-throat, self-serving individuals”, another OC confides, “the majority [here] are collaborative and supportive of each other’s initiatives”. Cheers to that!

Read Osborne Clarke’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

PwC

PwC’s size — it has an incredible 743 offices across 157 countries (at the most recent count) — doesn’t stop it being friendly. Indeed, peer support seems to flow in abundance among the 50 or so trainees at the firm’s London legal arm. One of them tells us: “All of my peers are very friendly and they generally do everything they can for us to feel comfortable in what we do.”

You’re likely to have peers who are “supportive of things you do around work”, and importantly “you can always approach others to discuss your matters”.

PwC is a firm that “loves a drink” — be that alcoholic or non-alcoholic — with “lots of events for people to get involved in”, including a black tie dinner at the Shard. This culture begins during the firm’s vacation scheme, where current and future PwC stars get to mingle, and continues during the training contract as trainees get to attend “great” socials. From here onwards the “trainee community is great”.

As one trainee tells us, “your intake is your safety net”.

Read PwC’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

TLT

Described as “extremely supportive”, the trainees and wider teams at TLT are a friendly bunch. The vibe “massively helped with the transition into my first seat”, a trainee tells us. So, your first day at TLT might be less daunting than you’re anticipating.

Trainees tend to stick together to form a “very cohesive group who get on well”. The regular team socials, which are “open to others joining”, and annual summer parties no doubt help the rookies glue. Meanwhile, the open plan office means “there is no need to knock on a closed door”. Seat rotation and NQ discussions “have always been open” too.

And you won’t be short on friends. The supportive culture at TLT stretches across its seven offices, which includes a City base near St Paul’s, its headquarters in Bristol and an overseas outpost in the Greek port of Piraeus.

Trainees “across offices have kept in touch with each other throughout our training”, an insider reveals. Juniors even make time to “grab a lunch with trainees of other offices” when visiting each other.

Read TLT’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Travers Smith

Could the recently implemented dress-down policy have something to do with the happy vibes at Travers Smith? Snazzy corporate suits have been ditched in favour of tie-less “business-casual” attire when not conducting work on client floors.

Possibly, but with the firm scoring an A* for peer support for the second consecutive year in the Legal Cheek Trainee and Junior Lawyer Survey, it would seem that something deeper is at work.

Trainees talk of a “great, warm atmosphere based on shared knowledge and support (and a sense of humour)”. Fellow comrades, including associates and partners “are genuinely friendly and engaging”.

Trainee bonds develop further after 6pm when free access to a fridge and snacks pantry becomes available. We can’t think of a better way to get a know a colleague than over a cup of tea and a biscuit.

What’s certain is that at Travers, which is well known for its high-end private equity practice, you will be working hard — “when push comes to shove”, the firm will be “extracting as much as possible from you”. Just as well that the support from fellow peers is only a desk away.

Read Travers Smith’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Trowers & Hamlins

With a London office on Bunhill Row, Trowers & Hamlins is at the centre of corporate legal life. Its lawyers in the making — split across Manchester, Birmingham and Exeter in addition to the firm’s base in the capital — are a pretty jolly lot. A recent 93% retention rate has contributed to the mood of contentment.

Rookies appreciate that “there’s a lot of support available” to them, even though there’s “more in some departments than others”. Hierarchies are refreshingly minimal, and “everyone is extremely helpful and offers to help out whenever they have capacity”.

People at Trowers are considerate and like to look out for each other: “Everyone on my floor checks in with each other before leaving to lend a hand so no one is in late”, a trainee tells us. Peer support like this keeps trainee morale high and, you’ll probably be going home earlier than your neighbours at Slaughters.

Read Trowers & Hamlins’ full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Outside the top ten, 32 firms scored an A and 19 got a B. Firms’ full Insider Scorecards, containing their grades in all categories of the Legal Cheek Trainee and Junior Lawyer Survey 2017-18, can be accessed through the Firms Most List.

The post The law firms with the most supportive trainees in Britain 2017-18 appeared first on Legal Cheek.

from All About Law https://www.legalcheek.com/2017/11/the-law-firms-with-the-most-supportive-trainees-in-britain-2017-18/

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