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ramrodd · 5 years ago

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Jared Kusner, Moscow Mitch and the GOP Deep State are the only things standing between Trump and a Nobel Prize for ending the Korean War.

How much respect does the US Coast Guard get from other branches of the US military?

COMMENTARY:

The Coast Guard has always been something of the stepchild of the military establishment, in part because it was part of the Treasury Department (to interdict smuggling and to collect excise taxes on goods coming into ports). During Prohibition, they were charged with stemming the flow of alcohol and, now, drug traffic and immigration as part of Homeland Security. In this regards, they have a certain reputation as “revenuers’, although they also maintain lighthouses and other navigation aids, as well as life guard stations at various points of hazard (such as the Outer Banks in NC and the mouth of the Columbia River).

However, during WWII, they were invaluable to the Navy in the Pacific Theater in amphibious operations and the general kind of coastal navigation around the atolls and islands the Blue Water Navy tended to avoid.

REVISION and ADDITIONAL COMMENTARY.

Hard to believe, but I could be wrong.

Thanks to Charlie Rand and Ron Lancaster to point out my error. I don’t really have an explanation, because I know that the Coast Guard was always part of the Revenue Service. I think I had a senior moment when I wrote that: my mind is headed in one direction and I forgot to instruct my fingers to write my original thought.

The Coast Guard deserves better copy than that. I have made the correction in the main text (I originally posted “Commerce Department” instead of Treasury).

Just for the record, Ron, the US Space Force is one of two things Trump has brought to the Oval Office, the other being the opportunity to end the Korean War, that could have been his leagacy and defined his second term.

The US Space Force will define the trajectory of the Green New Deal and the AOC Blue Red generation for the next 100 years. It’s like Starship Troopers, Star Trek and Star Wars all rolled into one. The problem is that Trump and the Joe McCarthy Conservatives don’t have any more idea how to bring the Green New Deal on-line and up to speed than they do about how to stand up a national test, trace and immunize program.

As far as the opportunity to end the Korean War, it is important to understand that Trump basically ran on the (Bill) Clinton Doctrine which emerged from the Dayton Accords. Both the Bush/Cheney and Obama/Clinton foreign policies were based on the dumb-ass neo-con Project for the New American Century that was the rationlalization for the invasion of Iraq and Obama/Clinton doubled down on regime change with the murder of Ghaddafr.

Trump ran against that because he’s a typical Henry Cabot Lodge isolationist and, as the proprietor of an inherited business, he resents any money coming into his company that doesn’t go towards his allowance. So, he was against the mercenary adventurism of the Bush/Cheney and hates Obama and Chairman Kim took that as a signal that he could get him to referee a peace treaty with President Moon. Chairman Moon is ready to give up the ranch in terms of his nukes and rockets to be part of the Green New Deal, if and when America can get its thumb out of its collective ass, kick Reaganomis to the curb and relaunch the mobilization for the future that Nixon and Moynihan put into motion with Affirmantive Action to transform the Military Industrial Complex to the Aerospace-Entrepreneurial Matrix at the core of the Green New Deal.

Of course, the problem is that Trump is surrounded by the Joe McCarthy Conservatives who have commited their careers since 1981 to blowing up Affirmative Action and replacing it with the Free Market Fascism of Cuba before Castro and running America like Las Vegas without the moral compass of Bugsy Siegel that Steve Bannon has been selling globally through Breitbart. That’s what “dismantling the administrative state” means.

The inventory shortage of PPI in the federal government is what “starving the beast” is designed to do, cause the failure of the federal govenment to fulfill its mandate and then create the astroturfing to support shutting down the USPS and privatizing it’s constitutional functions.

The good news, if Trump doesn’t succeed in blowing up America like some demented John Galt, is that President Sleepy Joe Biden can close the deal to end the Korean War and he can renew the challenge of Space to the AOC Blue Red generation that JFK proposed to us Boomers, Right now, the only thing that has been preventing a permanent moon colony has been Reaganomics. Paul Krugman’s dynamical modeling in Selling Prosperty is based on the underlying dynamics of American-British constitutional capitalism and the Green New Deal is version 2020.

Reagan should have had a share in Gorbachev’s Nobel Prize, but he was betrayed by Donald T. Regan, who was running what has become the GOP Deep State agenda.

Trump should have won a Nobel Peace Prize for ending the Korean War, but he is surrounded by Joe McCarthy Conservatives determined to keep the GOP Deep State agenda on course and at full speed ahead in spite of Covid-19. Currently, the Jared family (not including Ivanka) seem to represent the nexus of the GOP Deep State in the White House and they are betraying Trump’s true vision.

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markpao · 7 years ago

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Review of Key Economic Data Released in January 2018 that is Important to the Mortgage Industry

January usually gets off to a slow start as people recover from the Holidays, but there was a lot going on last month that affects the Mortgage Business. The Government shutdown lasted only a couple days because Congress was able to hammer out a temporary deal to fund the government through February 8th. In a few days, we could be facing another shutdown if Congress doesn't reach a more permanent solution. The Mortgage Business could have a headache if the IRS doesn't process 4506T requests during a shutdown. President Trump delivered his first State of the Union address and, as expected, it focused on the Economy, tax cuts, health care, immigration, trade, and national security. Here is a quick review of key Economic Indicators and data released during January 2018 that are important to the Mortgage Industry and Mortgage Professionals.

January Economic Indicators and Data in Review

A Government shutdown lasted a couple days until Congress approved a temporary funding package.

Another Government shutdown may happen February 8th if Congress doesn't agree on a deal.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged after the January 31st FOMC Meeting.

The Labor Market added 148,000 new jobs in December and 200,000 in January.

Inflation is holding steady at 2.1% annually.

Interest Rates and Fed Watch during January 2018

At the last FOMC meeting that ended January 31st and, as expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged. This meeting was Janet Yellen's last as the Fed Chair. Jerome Powell will be sworn in as Fed Chairman on February 3rd and his first FOMC Meeting will be March 31st. The Fed Minutes from December stated it plans to raise interest rates 3 times in 2018 and Fed Watchers are betting the first increase will happen at the March 31st FOMC Meeting. At this point, Fed Watchers are placing odds of a rate increase at 91% at the March meeting.

222 Fed Target

Inflation 2.1% CPI for the last 12 months

Wage Growth 2.9% for the last 12 months

GDP Growth 2.5% annualized rate for the last 12 months (4th Quarter = 2.6%)

Housing Market Data January 2018

The final numbers are in for Home Sales in 2017 and it was a banner year despite the lack of inventory that plagued house hunters - especially 1st Time Buyers. For all of 2017: Existing Home Sales were up 1.1% to 5,510,000 units - the highest since 2006. New Home Sales increased 14.1% to 608,000 units sold - the highest in over a decade. Builders and Developers are slowly ramping up production as they continue to struggle with labor shortages, material costs, lack of available land, and regulations.

Economic Indicators for the Housing Market Released in January 2018

Existing Home Sales (closed deals in December) fell 3.6% to an annual rate of 5,570,000 homes. For all of 2017, Existing Home Sales increased 1.1%. The median price for all types of homes is now $246,800 - up 5.8% from a year ago. The median Single Family Home price is $248,100 and $236,500 for a condo. First Time Buyers were 32%, Investors 16%, Cash Buyers 20%. Homes were on the market an average of 40 days. Currently, 1,480,000 homes are for sale - down 10.3% from a year ago.

New Home Sales (signed contracts in December) fell 9.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 625,000 units. The median price of a new home is $335,400 and the average sales price is $389,900. Inventory of New Homes for sale is 295,000 - a 5.7 month supply.

Pending Home Sales Index (signed contracts in December) rose 0.5% to 110.1 from 109.3.

Housing Starts (excavation began in December) fell 8.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,192,000 units and are now down 6.0% in the last 12 months. Single Family Housing Starts fell 11.8% to an annual pace of 836,000 units. Multifamily Starts fell to 352,000 units.

Building Permits (issued in December) fell 0.1% to an annual rate of 1,302,000. Single Family permits rose 1.8% to 881,000 units, and Multifamily permits fell 3.9%.

New Home Sales, Housing Starts, and Building Permits are notoriously volatile indicators. They carry a lot of statistical uncertainty from constant revisions, changes to the seasonal adjustment formula, and are heavily influenced by weather.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.8% in November. The 20 City Composite index is up 6.41% in the last 12 months.

FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.4% during November, now up 6.5% year over year.

Labor Market Economic Indicators Released in January 2018

The Jobs Report showed the Economy added 148,000 new jobs during December (160,000 expected) and 200,000 new jobs during January (180,000 expected). Doing the math for the entire year means the Economy added over 2,000,000 new jobs during 2017. Plus, the overall average wage increased 2.9% during 2017. Not bad - those gains were more than Economists were expecting when the year started. In the last 12 months, the construction sector added 226,000 jobs, manufacturing added 186,000 jobs, and food service (which includes drinking establishments) added 255,000 jobs. In 2017 the health care sector added 288,000 new jobs. The Labor Force Participation Rate is holding steady at 62.7% even as droves of Baby Boomers are retiring. All in all, the Labor Market had a good year in 2017, and at this point, it looks like it will continue. That's good news for the Mortgage Business. When workers feel secure in their jobs, they buy homes.

The Economy added 148,000 new jobs in December and 200,000 in January.

The Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1% in December and January.

The Labor Force Participation Rate held steady at 62.7% in December and January.

The Average Wage rose 2.9% during 2017.

Inflation Economic Indicators Released in January 2018

Inflation numbers for the last month of 2017 were mixed. CPI was up 0.15% and PPI fell 0.1% (due to lower food and gas prices). With the final Inflation numbers in for last year, we can take a look at what was up and down during 2017. Overall Inflation was up 2.1%, food rose 1.6%, energy (all types) rose 6.9%, gasoline up 10.7%, fuel oil up15.2%, shelter up 3.2%, medical care up 1.6%, medical supplies up 2.3%, apparel down 1.6%, new cars down 0.5%, used cars down 1.0%.

CPI rose 0.15%, now up 2.1% in the last 12 months.

Core CPI (ex-food & energy) rose 0.3%, now up 1.8% in the last 12 months.

PPI fell 0.1%, now up 2.6% in the last 12 months.

Core PPI (ex-food & energy) fell 0.1%, up 2.3% in the last 12 months.

GDP Economic Data Released in January 2018

The 1st guesstimate for 4th Quarter 2017 GDP showed the Economy grew at a 2.6% annualized rate (3.0% expected). This latest number pegs 2017 GDP growth at 2.5% - the fastest growth rate for the US Economy in over 2 years. An increase in personal consumption and business investments, along with the tax cuts, helped boost growth. Meanwhile across the pond, the GDP of the European Union rose 2.7% in 2017. A lot of their increase was due to a rise of French business investments - just like in the US. French business confidence has been bolstered by the elimination of some of their antiquated employment laws. When business is confident about future growth prospects - they spend money and invest in capital equipment. That works for the US and Europe. Remember that each quarter has 3 revisions for GDP, so all the revisions are more like moving targets or guesstimates.

Consumer Economic Indicators Released in January 2018

Consumers are Confident and it showed up in the Holiday buying season. 2017 was a good year for Retail Sales as Consumers hits stores and online sellers during the Holidays. Retail Sales improved 0.9% in November and 0.4% in December.

Retail Sales rose 0.4% in December. For the year Retail Sales are up 5.4% year over year.

The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 95.7 from 95.9 in December.

Consumer Confidence rose to 125.4 from 22.1 in December - which is a 17 year high.

International & Misc

More Manufacturing jobs: Toyota and Mazda announced they will build auto plants in Alabama. Samsung and LG will build appliance plants in South Carolina and Tennessee.

Oil prices are at their highest levels since 2015 at $70 a barrel due to production cuts in OPEC countries. As oil prices rise, shale producers will step in and ramp up their production.

This is ironic - the Kremlin has accused the US of trying to influence the upcoming Russian Presidential Elections in March through the use of Economic Sanctions.

This Economic Commentary is written to be a succinct summary of the key Economic Indicators and Economic Data that influence the Mortgage and Real Estate Industries. It is written for Loan Officers and Mortgage Professionals that need to stay current on Economic Information but don't have hours to research and analyze Economic Data. Feel free to share this with a friend or colleague in the Mortgage or Real Estate business. If you would like this Economic Calendar and Commentary emailed to you at the beginning of each month, click here.

Visit MortgageElements.com where you can explore over 300 Wholesale, Correspondent, and Warehouse Mortgage Lenders from one website. You'll discover new lending opportunities - it costs nothing to use and is one of the industry's largest databases of TPO Mortgage Lenders.

Mark Paoletti, [email protected]

www.MortgageElements.com

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tortuga-aak · 7 years ago

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The US government could shut down this weekend — and we're not ready

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

There's a 50/50 chance that Democrats and Republicans can agree on a budget and avoid a government shutdown after midnight Friday.

It’s very difficult to imagine that the Federal Reserve would go forward with its planned interest rate hike on December 13 if the government shuts down.

We could see a violent market reaction if the Fed stays put and doesn’t raise rates.

Will Republicans and Democrats agree on a budget, and avoid a government shutdown after midnight Friday?

I’d say the odds are 50/50. Actually, I put the odds of a shutdown at about 55%. There’s certainly enough substance here to be wary.

The government could shut down because of disagreements over defense spending, funding for Trump’s wall with Mexico, deportation of illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children (the “Dreamer Act” also referred to as “DACA”), funding for Planned Parenthood, funding for Obamacare (called “SCHIP”), disaster relief and more.

There’s not much middle ground between Democrats and Republicans on many of these hot button issues.

How would a shutdown affect the Fed’s plans to raise rates on the 13th?

If an agreement can’t be reached and the government does shut down, it’s very difficult to imagine that the Fed would go forward with its planned interest rate hike on Dec 13.

Meanwhile, markets are almost certain the Fed will raise rates. It’s already “baked into the cake.”

The euro, yen, gold and Treasury notes are all fully priced for rate hike. If it happens, those instruments won’t change much because the event is priced.

But we could see a violent market reaction if Janet Yellen stays put and doesn’t raise rates.

If the Fed doesn’t raise rates, gold could soar as the Fed passes on its best chance to raise rates and markets perceive that easy money is here to stay. Euros, yen and Treasury notes will also soar.

Of course, saying the government could shut down is different than saying the government will shut down. Again, I give it about a 55% chance at this point.

And there are lots of ways for things to go wrong.

Late last week the Commerce Department released the October PCE core inflation data. This is important because that’s the number the Fed watches. There are plenty of other inflation readings out there (CPI, PPI, core, non-core, trimmed mean, etc), but PCE Core year-over-year is the one the Fed uses to benchmark their performance in terms of their inflation goal.

The Fed’s target for PCE Core is 2%. The October reading was 1.4%. For weeks I’d been saying that a 1.3% reading would put the rate hike on hold, and a 1.6% reading would make the rate hike a done deal. So, the actual reading of 1.4% was in the mushy middle of that easy-to-forecast range.

What’s interesting is that the prior month was also 1.4%, so the new number is unchanged from September. That’s not what the Fed wants to see. They want to see progress toward their 2% goal.

On the other hand, the 1.4% from September was a revised number. It was earlier reported at 1.3% (the same number as August).

You can read this two ways. If you see the August 1.3% as a low, then you can say the 1.4% readings for September and October were progress toward the Fed’s 2% target. It’s a thin reed, but Yellen could use this to justify her view that the year-long weakness in PCE Core is “transitory.”

On the other hand, these 0.1% moves month-to-month are really statistical noise and may even be due to rounding. The bigger picture is that PCE Core is weak and nowhere near the Fed’s target. Another rate hike in December could be a huge blunder if it slows the economy further and leads to more weakness in PCE Core.

On balance, the PCE Core number is probably just enough (barely) to justify a rate hike. I’ve raised my probability of a December rate hike from 30% to just over 50% — 55%. That’s what analysts are supposed to do; they update forecasts continually based on new data. You can’t be stubborn about your analysis.

I’m not trying to be “in consensus” or “out-of-consensus.” I just want to get it right, and that means sometimes I’ll be in consensus. Other times, I won’t be.

But you should forget how the market is pricing the outcome. The Fed funds futures market has been off by orders of magnitude before. In mid-February 2017, the futures markets gave the odds of a rate hike in March at 30%.

I was giving 80% odds.

Within three trading days at the end of February, the market odds shifted from 30% to 80% before converging at 100% by the March meeting.

That does not mean I’ve got it right this time. But it does illustrate that the futures market does not always get this right — not even close.

And markets are being set up for a fall.

Bull markets in stocks seem unstoppable right up until the moment they stop. Then comes a rapid crash-and-burn phase.

Is there ever any warning that a collapse is about to happen?

Of course there is. Analysts warn about it all the time and provide mountains of data and historical evidence to back up their analysis. The problem is that everyone ignores them.

You can talk about the dangers represented by CAPE ratios, margin levels, computerized trading, persistent low volatility and complacency all you want, but nothing seems to slow down this bull market.

Yet there is one thing that can stop a bull market in its tracks, and that’s corporate earnings.

The simplest form of stock market valuation is to project earnings, apply a multiple and, voilà, you have a valuation. Multiples are already near record highs, so there’s not much room for expansion there.

The only variable left is projected earnings and that’s where Wall Street analysts are having a field day ramping up stock prices. Earnings did grow significantly in 2017 on a year-over-year basis, but that’s mainly because earnings were weak in 2016, so the year-over-year growth was relatively easy.

Now comes the hard part.

How do you expand earnings again in 2018 when 2017 was such a strong year? Wall Street just uses a simple extrapolation and says next year will be like this year, only better! But there is every reason to doubt that extrapolation.

Earnings are likely to fall short of expectations, which can lead to a correction. Once that happens, multiples can shrink as well. Soon you’re in a full-scale bear market with stock prices down 20% or more.

That’s without even considering a war with North Korea and all of the dangers others have already mentioned. This may be your last clear chance to lighten up on listed equity exposure before the bubble bursts.

Markets are creatures of manipulation by Fed policy changes, statements, forward guidance and the other prestidigitation of modern central banks. That’s what you get after 10 years of ZIRP, QE, tapering, QT, forward guidance, currency wars and musings about NIRP.

Shutdown or no shutdown, the Fed has painted itself into a corner and there’s no way to escape the room. That’s the larger story to keep in mind as Dec. 13 approaches.

Tune out the current sideshow and keep that in mind.

NOW WATCH: A Navy SEAL explains what to do if you're attacked by a dog

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