#Masr Vs Ethiopia | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

districofcolumbiaprelawland-blog · 4 years

Text

Electricity Vs. Water: Egypt And Ethiopia’s Decade-Long Disagreement

By Alessandra Ruano, George Washington University Class of 2021

July 5, 2020

In 2011, Ethiopia began construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, a tributary of the Nile River. The aim of this project was to create a hydroelectric power plant that would be the largest in Africa. Nearly a decade later, the dam is almost complete, renewing conflicts between Ethiopia and Egypt over the water supply. 85% of the Nile is in Ethiopia, but it provides the vast majority of Egypt’s water [1]. Thus, Egypt fears that filling the dam too quickly will affect access to water in the country. Making matters more complicated, Sudan has a stake in the dispute as well, but it has found itself caught between the other two nations numerous times. Like Egypt, Sudan relies heavily on the Nile’s water, and the dam could increase the risk of flooding on Sudanese lands if not carefully controlled. At the same time, if regulated properly, the dam could actually reduce the flood risk while providing Sudan with a cheap source of renewable energy [2]. For years, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan have been trying to reach an agreement regarding how the dam will be filled. Ethiopia has set a date to do so within the next two weeks. Attempts at arbitration, including by the United States in February, have largely failed, making the impending completion of the project all the more pressing.

After recent intervention by the African Union, the three countries announced that they would come to an agreement within the next two weeks. Based on the statements of the nations’ leaders, it seems that Ethiopia has now stated that it will not to fill the dam without an agreement and that most issues have been resolved [3]. However, it remains unclear whether some major points of contention have been addressed. If Ethiopia is truly considering waiting for an agreement, it would be a move in stark contrast with its previous threats of unilateral action [4]. Complicating matters further, the two-week deadline for an agreement lines up with Ethiopia’s scheduled time to begin filling the dam, leading many to believe that the country still intends to fill the dam with or without a deal by this date. [5]. According to officials, the legal issues are the most controversial part of the potential agreement, with significant progress in all other areas. Although this conflict could be resolved by the much-anticipated agreement, the question of each country’s obligations and the implementation of those obligations has been a source of high tension for years now [6].

There are two main conflicts that still need to be resolved: what to do in the case of drought and how to manage disputes. The countries have already agreed that Ethiopia will release a certain amount of water from the reservoir each year, but Egypt wants assurances of additional water during drought years. Egypt has also demanded the release of extra water after a drought to compensate for any reductions. Ethiopia believes that a concession this extreme would lead to a significant reduction in energy output [7]. The question of how to handle conflict in the future has also been a major source of disagreement. Ethiopia wants conflict resolution to be undertaken directly by the involved parties, but Egypt has so far insisted on the implementation of binding international arbitration guidelines [2].

On June 29, a meeting before the UN Security Council requested by Egypt took place. While the two countries reiterated their concerns, Ethiopia claimed that the meeting shouldn’t have occurred because according to the UN charter, disputes should be settled regionally if possible [4]. The meeting did not do much to quell either side’s concerns, nor did it resolve the conflict. The Security Council supported the actions taken by the AU, but it did not take any action of its own [8]. Therefore, at least for the time being, it seems that the AU will be the source for any mediation.

Legally, there are two important considerations affecting how parties are responding to the GERD project. First, a 1959 treaty between Egypt and Sudan granted them the right to use water from the Nile. Ethiopia views this treaty as unfair, given the significant portion of the river that flows through Ethiopia.It also views Egypt’s insistence on a trilateral agreement as a way for Egypt to control its guaranteed amount of water per the treaty. Second, both Egypt and Ethiopia have cited international law and the more specific 2015 Declaration of Principles regarding the dam in contradictory ways. Ethiopia believes that it is using the water resources of the Blue Nile in a reasonable manner, while Egypt claims that filling the dam unilaterally would cause “significant harm” and thus violate the text of the Declaration [5]. This legislation also provides for arbitration of matters between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, providing the basis for Ethiopia’s argument regarding dispute settlement in the future [7].

The ongoing stalemate between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan reveals the challenge with addressing international disagreements; efforts from outside observers can only go so far if the involved parties are unwilling to compromise.The stakes for these negotiations are high. Even with countless attempts at mediation over the past decade, sticking points still remain that may escalate tensions in the region.With the rainy season just about to begin, Ethiopia is anxious to begin filling the dam as soon as possible. Both Ethiopia and Egypt have expressed willingness to go to war over this issue [3].It is clear that the only peaceful path forward involves some form of agreement among the concerned parties, but so far, this has not been sufficient in swaying any of the three countries into shifting their positions enough to support the proposed solutions. Whether or not any of these positions will change could determine the future of the region.

________________________________________________________________

1. Mutahi, Basillioh. “Egypt-Ethiopia Row: The Trouble Over a Giant Nile Dam.” BBC News, January 13, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-50328647.

2. MacKinnon, Amy. “The Clock Is Ticking on Ethiopia’s Dam Dispute.” Foreign Policy, June 26, 2020. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/26/clock-ticking-ethiopia-renaissance-dam-dispute-egypt-sudan-blue-nile-water-conflict/.

3. “Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to Agree Nile Dam Deal ‘in Two Weeks.’” Al Jazeera, June 27, 2020. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/ethiopia-agrees-delay-filling-nile-mega-dam-egypt-sudan-200627025116180.html.

4. Al-Monitor Staff. “Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan Discuss Nile River Dam at UN Security Council.” Al-Monitor, June 29, 2020.https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/06/ethiopia-sudan-egypt-discuss-nile-river-dam-unsc.html.

5. Masr, Mada. “A Decade of Dispute: The Battle over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.” MadaMasr, June 28, 2020. https://madamasr.com/en/2020/06/28/feature/politics/a-decade-of-dispute-the-battle-over-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam/.

6. “Legal Issues to Dominate Today’s Trilateral Negotiation on GERD.” Ethiopian Monitor, June 16, 2020. https://ethiopianmonitor.com/2020/06/16/legal-issues-to-dominate-todays-trilateral-negotiation-on-gerd/.

7. Fabricius, Peter. “Ethiopia’s Nile Dam Dispute Must be Solved Soon.” Institute for Security Studies, June 25, 2020. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/ethiopias-nile-dam-dispute-must-be-solved-soon.

8. Associated Press. “Egypt Seeks UN Resolution on Nile Dam Dispute with Ethiopia.” New York Times, June 29, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/06/29/world/middleeast/ap-un-united-nations-nile-dam-dispute.html.

0 notes