#MLB Pirates Cardinals Sabermetrics ERA

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While the Pirates’ Trevor Williams has been impressive in the second half, indicators point to a September downturn

By Stephen Gugliociello

The Pirates’ 26-year-old right-hander, Trevor Williams, has found sustained success since the All-Star Break in mid-July. 

In his six second-half starts, Williams has twirled a 0.97 ERA, not allowing more than two earned runs in any start, and compiling a 3-2 record (the team is 3-3 in his starts). He’s thrown for 37 innings,facing 147 batters, and given up four earned runs (three home runs) during that stretch. 

However, that’s where the positive ends for Williams. Despite an 0.97 ERA in his last six starts, the advanced metrics tell a different story. Williams’ FIP is at 3.99, and his xFIP is 5.04. This means that if his defense was playing “league average” defense, his ERA would be nearly three runs higher per game (FIP), and if he gave up closer to the league average of home run to fly ball ratio, his ERA would be over 5.00.

For a more tangible stat, it’s as easy at looking at the strikeout-to-walk ratio is 1.9:1 (19 strikeouts, 10 walks). His strikeout average is 4.62 per nine innings. This low strikeout total means teams are putting more balls in play. While his defense has had his back to the tune of a .226 batting average on balls in play, he’s allowed a near-equal ratio of ground balls to fly balls. 

With more balls in play, 91.2% of contact has been against balls in the zone. Williams’ fastball velocity has decreased every season through his brief career -- it’s now down to a 90.4 MPH, and he’s throwing it at an extremely-high frequency -- 70.5%. This has contributed to the lowering percentage of swing and miss percentage, which is down to 7.3%. So while he’s in the zone frequently (1,366 strikes to 798 balls), Williams is showing he doesn’t have the gas to put it past hitters. 

Here’s a question for you: Can a good number actually be a bad number? During the second-half, Williams’ WHIP is just over 1.00 (39 baserunners in 37 innings). At a microcosm, if you remove the three solo home runs Williams has given up during this stretch, he’s allowed one earned run to 36 baserunners. As you saw with the FIP and xFIP numbers, an ERA with that many baserunners to runs allowed is not sustainable long-term.

Finally, let’s look ahead to tonight. Williams takes on the St. Louis Cardinals for the second time during this stretch. His first start against them on Aug. 5, resulted in a 2-1 loss for the Pirates and Williams. Williams only lasted 5 innings, giving up 9 hits, 2 earned runs, and strike out 3 on 90 pitches, including a home run to Matt Carpenter, who is having an MVP-caliber season. Again, stranded baserunners good, low strikeout bad, low inning total bad.

The Cardinals have been a team Williams has struggled against in his career. Of those who faced him, batters are hitting .368 with a .977 OPS. Williams’ biggest bugaboo has been Carpenter, who is 7-16 with 3 homers, 6 RBI, and 4 walks. Carpenter has  produced an other-worldly OPS against Williams of 1.613. 

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MLB season preview: Is this the year the Dodgers finally win another World Series?

The Los Angeles Dodgers front office made plenty of checkmarks on its offseason to-do list. Kenley Jansen, re-signed. Justin Turner, re-signed. Rich Hill, re-signed. Bullpen help, arrived. And a new second baseman is town after a trade.

Now it’s time for the Dodgers roster to chase down the item that’s been on its to-do list since 1988 — win another World Series.

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The Dodgers look every bit like a title contender entering 2017. We’re talking about a team with Clayton Kershaw at the top of its rotation and Corey Seager still getting better. The Dodgers won 91 games a year ago, grabbing the division title and advancing to the NLCS — and that was despite putting a record 28 different players on the disabled list.

The question marks are in their rotation, where Kershaw, Hill and Kenta Maeda hold down the top three spots. For the final two, L.A. is hoping Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy can return to form after injuries and Julio Urias can get close to the hype. Alex Wood and Scott Kazmir linger too. If the Dodgers can pull together a solid rotation out of all that, they’ll be tough to beat.

But then comes the big question: When October rolls around, when the games matter more, can the Dodgers win it all?

ADDITIONS & SUBTRACTIONS Additions: Logan Forsythe, Sergio Romo Subtractions: Howie Kendrick, Brett Anderson, Joe Blanton

The Dodgers made modest upgrades to an already strong club this offseason by dealing for Logan Forsythe and picking up Sergio Romo from the rival Giants. Forsythe didn’t fully hold on to his gains from 2015, but moving to Dodgers Stadium should help. He’s a strong leadoff hitter and should score a ton of runs with that lineup behind him. Romo had a tough year with home runs, but still posted an excellent 2.64 ERA with great peripherals. While both players will help, the Dodgers’ biggest boost will come from better health. The team somehow managed a playoff appearance despite breaking the record for most players put on the disabled list last season. With everyone healthy and ready to go, the Dodgers are a major force to be reckoned with in the NL West. (Chris Cwik)

The Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw have a tough road ahead, but they’re every bit a title contender. (AP)

KEY PLAYER In Corey Seager’s first full season in the majors, he played 157 games, made the All-Star team, batted over .300, hit 26 home runs, won a Silver Slugger, finished third in NL MVP voting, and unanimously won the NL Rookie of the Year award. That’s a huge list of accomplishments for just one year. And now the challenge is trying to follow that up. The thing is, Seager can do it. He was a highly-touted prospect who came to the majors and actually succeeded. Year Two might not be as splashy and exciting as year one, but don’t be surprised if it is. (Liz Roscher)

PROJECTED LINEUP & ROTATION Lineup 1. Logan Forsythe, 2B (.264/.333/.444, 20 HR, 52 RBI, 76 R) 2. Corey Seager, SS (.308/.365/.512, 26 HR, 72 RBI, 105 R) 3. Justin Turner, 3B (.275/.339/.493, 27 HR, 90 RBI) 4. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (.285./349/.435, 18 HR, 90 RBI) 5. Yasmani Grandal, C (.228/.339/.477, 27 HR, 72 RBI) 6. Joc Pederson, CF (.246/.352/.495, 25 HR, 68 RBI) 7. Yasiel Puig, RF (.263/.323/.416, 11 HR, 45 RBI) 8. Andrew Toles, LF (.314/.365/.505, 3 HR, 16 RBI)

Rotation 1. Clayton Kershaw (12-4, 1.69 ERA, 149 IP, 172 K) 2. Kenta Maeda (16-11, 3.48 ERA, 175.2 IP, 179 K) 3. Rich Hill (12-5, 2.12 ERA, 110.1 IP, 129 K) 4. Hyun-Jin Ryu (0-1, 11.57 ERA, 4.2 IP) 5. Brandon McCarthy (2-3, 4.95 ERA, 40 IP, 44 K)

Corey Seager and the Dodgers can go all the way if they’re healthy. (Getty Images)

BEST-CASE SCENARIO The Dodgers finally get over the hump. The talent has been here for awhile, as evidenced by their NL West dominance. But maybe this will finally be the year it all comes together, leading to that elusive World Series championship. They’ll have to overcome some really good teams, like the Cubs, Nationals and Giants, but a healthy Dodgers team can hang with anyone. (Mark Townsend)

WORST-CASE SCENARIO The common theme with the really good teams is that they need to avoid injuries. You don’t have to tell the Dodgers twice after last season’s dubious injury record. The good news is they were good enough to make the postseason then, and should be again this season regardless of circumstances. The bad news is they were overwhelmed by the Cubs in the NLCS, and probably wouldn’t get through a potentially loaded NLDS if short-handed again. (Townsend)

PRESSING FANTASY QUESTION Is Rich Hill the biggest X factor in fantasy baseball? For my money, he is. Once a promising young lefty coming up with the Cubs, Hill nearly flamed out of baseball altogether because of command issues – after the Cubs cut him loose following four up-and-down seasons, Hill combined for 131.1 (mostly lousy) innings pitched over the next six seasons while donning the uniform of four different MLB clubs. But, something clicked in his second tour with the Boston Red Sox in ’15 when, after being forced to advertise his talents with the Independent League Long Island Ducks during the summer, Hill delivered a 1.55 ERA and 36 strikeouts to just five walks over 29 innings pitched in four starts to close out the season with the BoSox. Last season as a member of Oakland and then the Dodgers, he picked up where he left off, combining for a 2.12 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 129 Ks in 110.2 IP.

In other words, since late ’15, Hill has been an ace-level fantasy starter. And the Dodgers bought into this transformation in the offseason, giving him a three-year, $48 million contract. Sure, it’s not an exorbitant contract given the price that quality established starters are going for these days, but it’s a fair amount of guaranteed money being allocated to a soon-to-be 37-year-old with a history of injuries and command issues who had fallen so far that he was forced to showcase himself to MLB teams in the Independent League less than two seasons ago.

[Elsewhere: Read more pressing fantasy questions about the Dodgers]

To say it’s been a long, strange trip would be an understatement. Travis Sawchick of FanGraphs did an excellent job a few weeks back  of summarizing Hill’s journey, one in which Hill calls himself a “role model for failure.” Hill has risen from the ashes of his MLB career to become a student of the game, using the knowledge he’s gained from the Sabermetric side to help shape who we see today.

Hill’s past 139.1 innings pitched is not only elite, it’s Kershawian (2.00 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 10.7 K/9). I think we have to accept that Hill, who has always had special swing-and-miss stuff, has figured things out. He may not be able to replicate what he’s done over the past two seasons in ’17, but it’s reasonable to think he can deliver an ERA in the low 3s (or less) and a K/9 rate of 9-plus. What is not reasonable to expect is more than 150 innings pitched considering he’s logged more than last season’s 110.1 IP just one other time in his MLB career – you should probably set expectations for something in the 125-150 IP range.

Hill is going No. 31 overall among SPs in average Yahoo drafts, which looks like a bargain when you consider that he was the No. 15 overall starter in the Yahoo game last season. Even if Hill regresses a bit from last season, he’s still very likely to outperform his ADP if he can surpass his ’16 innings pitched total even if only by a small margin. (Brandon Funston)

BEST FOLLOW Yasiel Puig started a foundation in the offseason, and there is also now #babypuig.

Introducing to the world my big boy Daniel Sebastian Puig! Thanks God ????????????‍????????????#puigbabyboy #puigyourfriend #babypuig pic.twitter.com/omRL6cQCR6

— Yasiel Puig (@YasielPuig) February 3, 2017

Puig is always, always worth a follow just in case he finds more Puig hashtags. But even if he never does, #PuigYourFriend is still the best thing ever. (Roscher)

BEST REASON TO ATTEND A GAME L.A. is a well-known tourist destination, and it’s easy to find things to do in the city. The area near Dodger Stadium may not be all that exciting, but if you’re willing to venture farther, you can check out the Hollywood sign or Grauman’s Chinese Theatre.

Since those are popular places you already know, we’re going to recommend you try and get to the team’s April 5 game against the Padres. That night, the team is giving away replica Fernando Valenzuela jerseys. You can’t really go wrong with a classic. If you somehow miss out on that, try to grab a Vin Scully Microphone statue May 3. The team will hold a ceremony for Scully that day as well, so tickets are going to go quickly. Probably good to order a Dodger Dog while you’re there. Just to check it off the list. (Cwik)

ALSO IN THIS SERIES: San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies, Oakland Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels, Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, New York Mets, Houston Astros, Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs

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Mike Oz is the editor of Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at mikeozstew@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @MikeOz

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MLB season preview: After a busy offseason, Mariners have their sights on the playoffs

The Seattle Mariners undoubtedly had the busiest offseason in baseball. And as they start 2017, the M’s have to be hoping their new roster will have them snapping baseball’s longest playoff drought.

The Mariners haven’t made the playoffs since 2001 but recently they’ve been close. They won 86 games last season, finishing three games out of a wild-card spot. In 2014, they won 87 games. It seems pretty clear there’s something there, considering Seattle has a talented nucleus of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Felix Hernandez and Kyle Seager.

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So the Mariners went out and tinkered with the rest of their roster. There are 18 players on their 40-man roster who weren’t in the organization last season. A few of the moves were big while many of them were smaller tweaks that the Mariners have to hope can turn an almost-playoff team into a legit postseason entrant.

ADDITIONS & SUBTRACTIONS Additions: Yovani Gallardo, Drew Smyly, Jean Segura, Jarrod Dyson Subtractions: Seth Smith, Taijuan Walker, Adam Lind

It’s unclear whether general manager Jerry Dipoto sleeps. The moves above don’t come close to accurately depicting every single transaction Dipoto made this winter. He never seems to be content, and is always willing to take chances to improve his club. His major moves this offseason were not without risks. Segura had a major resurgence in Arizona, but there’s some questions as to whether he can carry that over this year. Gallardo and Smyly can be seen as buy-low candidates. Both struggled mightily last season, but it can’t get any worse, right?

When you make such a large amount of moves, not all of them will work out. Dipoto gave up some useful talent in deals during the offseason. The biggest of which was pitcher Taijaun Walker. Though Walker hasn’t fully lived up to expectations just yet, he’s still young and exceptionally talented. He’s the one guy who could come back to haunt Dipoto if things go right in Arizona. Seth Smith, while not a superstar, was still an incredibly useful player. If Gallardo can’t bounce back, losing Smith could be a tough loss. It’s worth noting the team has a lot of faith in Mitch Haniger, who was acquired in the Walker/Segura swap, so it’s possible having him around gave Dipoto the confidence to move Smith. (Chris Cwik)

Can Felix Hernandez rebound after a down 2016? (AP)

KEY PLAYER The Mariners have the tools to compete, but it’s hard to see them doing it without Felix Hernandez regaining at least some of his form. The 2016 season wasn’t great for him: he failed to make at least 30 starts for the first time in ten seasons, allowed a ton of walks, his strikeout rate went down, and his ERA climbed to an un-Felix like 3.82. And this isn’t sudden, either: this decline started in 2015. At age 30, it’s possible we could see the King Felix of yore magically reappear, but that’s a very tall order. What fans can hope for is that he gets those walks under control and finds the strike zone more often. That would be an improvement, and it would definitely shore up the floor of the Mariners’ somewhat questionable rotation. (Liz Roscher)

PROJECTED LINEUP & ROTATION Lineup 1. Jarrod Dyson, LF (.278/.340/.388, 1 HR, 25 RBI, 30 SB) 2. Jean Segura, SS (.319/.368/.499, 20 HR, 64 RBI, 102 R, 33 SB) 3. Robinson Cano, 2B (.298/.350/.533, 39 HR, 103 RBI, 107 R) 4. Nelson Cruz, DH (.287/.360/.555, 43 HR, 105 RBI, 96 R) 5. Kyle Seager, 3B (.278/.359/.499, 30 HR, 99 RBI, 89 R) 6. Mike Zunino, C (.207/.318/.470, 12 HR, 31 RBI) 7. Mitch Haniger, RF (.229/.309/.404, 5 HR, 17 RBI) 8. Dan Vogelbach, 1B (.083/.154/.083 in 12 plate appearances) 9. Leonys Martin, CF (.247/.306/.378, 15 HR, 47 RBI, 24 SB)

Rotation 1. Felix Hernandez (11-8, 3.82 ERA, 153.1 IP, 122 K) 2. Hisashi Iwakuma (16-12, 4.12 ERA, 199 IP, 147 K) 3. James Paxton (6-7, 3.79 ERA, 121 IP, 117 K) 4. Yovani Gallardo (6-8, 5.42 ERA, 118 IP, 85 K) 5. Ariel Miranda (5-2, 3.88 ERA, 58 IP, 44 K)

The two keys to the Mariners offense: Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano. (AP)

BEST-CASE SCENARIO Jerry Dipoto has worked overtime to put the pieces of the puzzle together. It seems to have paid off with a talented roster from top to bottom, Seattle’s success may be most closely tied to its superstars. If Felix Hernandez, Robinson Can, Nelson Cruz and even Kyle Seager perform at or above their expected level, that should make life easier for everyone else and give Seattle a real shot to end its 15-year postseason drought. (Mark Townsend)

WORST-CASE SCENARIO A continuance of the disappointment that’s defined Seattle in recent seasons. Simply said, if the Mariners fall somewhere between average and great, they might as well be bad because it’s not progress and it won’t get them into the playoffs. In fact, anything less than a postseason berth will be disappointing. (Townsend)

PRESSING FANTASY QUESTION Can Jean Segura come close to duplicating last season’s career-best campaign? As a rookie with the Brewers in ’13, Segura produced a 3.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), good for 49th best among all offensive players that season. He followed that up with two seasons of replacement-level production (combined 0.3 WAR), before his career rebounded in a major way last season, generating a 5.0 WAR with Arizona (good for 22nd-best among hitters). So, for half of his MLB career, Segura has produced upper-class offensive numbers while playing mostly a premium position – he played shortstop in Milwaukee before moving to, primarily, second base for the Diamondbacks last season. The other half of the time, he’s been marginal. So which way will the scales tip in ’17?

The good news is that he got better as the ’16 season progressed, producing a .954 second-half OPS that was 10th-best among all qualified hitters. On the downside, his combined OPS from ABs at home in Chase Field and in road games at Coors Field was over .900, while his combined OPS for all other ABs was under .800. But let’s not act like his non-Chase/Coors OPS (.798) was chopped liver, as that would have ranked top 10 among regular shortstops, right ahead of Cleveland’s much-beloved Francisco Lindor (.794).

[Related: Read more pressing fantasy questions about the Mariners]

It’s fair to expect a bit of regression in the power numbers in Segura’s new home base, though Chase Field and Safeco Field home run factors for right-handed hitters were pretty similar last season, and with Segura only 26 years old, who’s to say he’s not entering into a power phase of his career. But I think fantasy owners would be prudent to temper expectations offensively, because the track record for offensive success at Chase Field definitely trumps Safeco Field. And, expected to hit No. 2 in front of Robinson Cano, the Sabermetrically inclined Mariners probably won’t look to green light Segura on the base paths as often as Arizona turned him loose – the Diamondbacks attempted twice as many steals as the M’s in ’16 (168 to 84).

Something in the neighborhood of .280 with 15 home runs, 20-25 steals and 90-plus runs is a fair projection for Segura’s ’17 campaign. Again, not chopped liver. Last season, a line like that would have pushed top 60 offensive value in roto leagues, and would have ranked top 9 among fantasy shortstops, which is around Segura’s early ADP – I think the fantasy community is spot on. (Brandon Funston)

BEST FOLLOW Yeah, you could follow a Mariners player, but why do that when you could follow Manny Acta, who is now the Mariners’ third base coach?

#Tbt Cuando tenía pelo hasta demás ???????????? con mi bro @acta_jose y el gran #AngelMuñiz – Back when I had hair (too much) #hombredepeloenpecho???????? #RD #cuantovaleelshow #PericoRipiao #yadiosquemeperdone #Solid

A post shared by Manny14 (@macta14) on Mar 2, 2017 at 11:36am PST

He has accounts on Instagram and Twitter, and as you might guess, he’s absolutely wild about baseball. Lately, he’s been vigorously tweeting about the awesomeness of the World Baseball Classic, Instagramming pics of his food and being generally great all around. (Roscher)

BEST REASON TO ATTEND A GAME If you’re going to attend one Mariners’ game this season, make sure it’s a Felix Hernandez start. And if you can somehow manage to get tickets early enough, make sure you sit in the King’s Court.

The votes are in. Your 2017 King's Court shirt is—

If you followed MarinersSpecialEvents on IG, you'd already know. https://t.co/0U75lCIaWM pic.twitter.com/1Uwvy9xMtG

— Mariners (@Mariners) February 7, 2017

Hernandez may have seen his performance dip last year, but the atmosphere surrounding his starts is still electric. If you can obtain King’s Court tickets, you’ll receive a yellow shirt and a K-card to hold up after every Hernandez strikeout. It’s a fantastic way to take in a game at Safeco. (Cwik)

ALSO IN THIS SERIES: San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies, Oakland Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels, Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, New York Mets, Houston Astros, Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs

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Mike Oz is the editor of Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at mikeozstew@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @MikeOz