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2018 Season Predictions

By podcast co-host, Kevin McCaffrey

This’ll be a long one, so BUCKLE IN!

NL EAST Washington Nationals NY Mets Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves Florida Marlins

The only “interesting” thing here is that I could see 2-4 in any order. I think the Phillies are almost overhyped as a possible breakout team, but they have a weak division to beat up on...just like everyone else. I think the Mets land a couple of games above .500 and are in the wild card mix late.

NL CENTRAL Chicago Cubs St. Louis Cardinals* Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds

I think the Cubs are, uh, the best team in the NL on paper? And with extreme bias, I probably put them #2 behind the Astros overall, right in the mix with Nats/Yankees/Indians. The tough part is that I do believe the Cardinals are going to Cardinals it up this season and be 5 wins better than they have any reason to be (Jose Martinez, with good playing time, I really believe in as a kind of Bautista-lite late-ish career breakout). The Brewers I think *should* be a touch better than the Cardinals, but I don’t think they *will* be. They really needed one more starter this offseason, and I’m not sure they have the farm system to deal for one mid-season stud...though their GM David Stearns I think is really good, and as a Cubs fan, bothers me.

NL WEST LA Dodgers Arizona Diamondbacks* Colorado Rockies SF Giants SD Padres

(Dumb guy voice that is identical to my actual voice) “The Dodgers don’t scare me!” Except, they kind of don’t. With Turner hurt, that lineup gets un-scary very quickly. He’ll be back, sure, but hand and wrist injuries can be long lingering poison to hitters (as I get deeply sad, thinking about Derrek Lee post-’05). The Diamondbacks are my reluctant pick for the 2nd wild card, as I feel like I could flip a coin between them and the Brewers. The Rockies I believe so little in, with a weak lineup and decent young, but hard-to-count-on pitching, that I had them 4th behind the Giants before everyone on that team died.

AL East NY Yankees Boston Red Sox* Toronto Blue Jays Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays

I’ve heard a lot of analysts say the Rays still shouldn’t be that bad, and that they aren’t “tanking” (Olney & ESPN types, mainly), and I know there are projections that always love the Rays no matter what. But they have a 4-man pitching staff, and they have 3 pitchers. So, last. The Orioles are weird but always better than they should be, I think the Blue Jays have a pretty solid year in what could be the end of the Donaldson era. Of the teams everyone thinks are playoff locks (Nats/Cubs/Dodgers/Yanks/Red Sox/Indians/Astros), I think the Red Sox are the most likely to just whiff it. It feels like they’re one key injury away from being kind of middling. Take out any one of Betts, Martinez, Sale, even Bogaerts, and they look good, but, eh. The Yankees are, annoyingly, going to be awesome for at least 8 years now.

AL CENTRAL Cleveland Indians Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals Detroit Tigers

Woof, the bottom of this division. The Indians thank you for your fast-pass to the offseason. Because of that weak-ass schedule, my head tells me the Twins are the other wild card, but my heart tells me it’s a team from the city that invented the “fast pass” for their theme park. I love the Twins bargain shopping, going against the grain in an offseason when that meant just paying a little bit good players (Morrison, Lynn). If Cleveland can keep their pitchers healthy at the end of the year -- and the weak schedule could let them pull a 2017 Dodgers and fake DL guys mid-season for rest -- they could really go on a run...kind of like they did during the regular season, last year.

AL WEST Houston Astros Anaheim Angels* Texas Rangers Oakland A’s Seattle Mariners

Well, the Astros are the best, and they got better. I made money betting on them at the beginning of the playoffs last year, when it seemed everyone was on the Dodgers or the Indians, but I literally put my money on a historically good offense. I like those. They made a great trade that I wish the Cubs made for Verlander, added Cole, and all I can say is thank God they had moments of pure idiocy a few years ago when they waived pre-breakout JD Martinez and passed on Kris Bryant, because if they didn’t do those things, we’d just have to hit fast-forward until they stopped winning titles, and I’m not ready for 2022 yet. The Angels, man, c’mon. They’re maybe my #1 team to tune into when the Cubs aren’t on via MLB.TV (which somehow gets worse every year, from a technical standpoint -- my next story: “The At Bat App Is Tanking”), and thank God they finally went all-in to get decent older dudes to surround Trout with in Cozart and Kinsler, and re-signing Upton. Billy Eppler is really smart, and good, and even though getting Shohei Ohtani is largely through luck of location and the inequality of rules between the two leagues, they still got him, and that’s fun. So, what the hell, Angels for the 2nd wild card because them in the playoffs would be friggin’ cool. And the Mariners rebuild, once they start it, should have them really good by about 2025, when Felix is throwing one of his last opening day starts.

PLAYOFFS

Wild Card Cardinals over Diamondbacks Angels over Red Sox

Division Series Nationals over Dodgers Cubs over Cardinals Astros over Angels Indians over Yankees

League Championship Series Cubs over Nationals Indians over Astros

World Series Cubs over Indians in 7

Jeez, there are a lot of teams tanking, but this October is going to be a gauntlet of incredible teams. Every year is a year when “any team could win” in the playoffs, because that’s how the future works, but this year is one where it’s possible that almost any team *should* win.

I think the Cubs and Nationals will battle it out for a very important #1 spot in the NL, which could be rough for the Cubs looking at the Nationals division. Loser plays a rough series against the Dodgers, and goes into the next series with a disadvantage, as the Cubs did last year, heading to LA completely depleted. Fingers crossed the Cubs dispatch with the Cardinals in a very stressful NLDS, and the Cubs once again knock out the Nats, with a great 4-man rotation and Chatwood turning into a high-leverage bullpen weapon, plus whatever reliever Theo gets at the deadline (my prediction is Zach Britton).

In the AL, there’s part of me that just wants to say Mike Trout wins all the games by himself. But if that doesn’t happen, the Astros are the best team, the Yankees could score 8-10 runs just about every game...and yet, I’m saying this sneaky, historically good rotation in Cleveland puts a run together, choking the life out of every offense on their way to the World Series.

In storytelling, you’d have Cleveland take down the Cubs in a 2016 rematch, now with their rotation more than just Kluber and spare parts. But I think the Cubs rotation is just about the only one with the depth to matchup with Cleveland, and the Cubs might have more of an AL offense than the Indians. The pitching plays to about a draw, and the Cubs bats give them the title in 7...at Wrigley. Cleveland gets the consolation prize of getting to continue the claim of being the longest suffering franchise, which they’ve held for a full two years now.

The Cubs find themselves one title short of being able to claim a semi-official “dynasty,” with three more seasons left in the current window.

Or at least, that’s what I think will happen.

AWARDS

MVP

NL: 1. Bryce Harper 2. Kris Bryant 3. Anthony Rizzo

I honestly think this could/should be Bryant, and my heart wants Rizzo to get one of these for his future HOF case, but Harper in a walk year, but more importantly in a year he knows might be his last with a great Nats core, has him go on a high-profile tear.

AL: 1. Carlos Correa 2. Mike Trout 3. Giancarlo Stanton

It’s probably Trout, but let’s get slightly weird. Correa finished in the top 10 in MVP voting last year in less than 110 games, he’s on the best team, and the team played waaaaay better with him active last year. He’ll still likely be the 2nd best player on his team but voters won’t go Altuve again. Stanton hits bombs, you probably heard.

CY YOUNG

NL: 1. Stephen Strasbourg 2. Kyle Hendricks 3. Max Scherzer

Stras’s performance in game 4 of the NLDS was a real turning point in an already great career. With all the weirdness leading up to his maybe not pitching, if he bombed, that narrative would have stuck forever (like Kershaw/playoffs, as stupid as it is). But he dominated a great Cubs lineup, he has three plus-plus-plus pitches, his changeup is actual wizardry that should be outlawed, and he and Bryce go nuts in this last year of the Washington window. Hendricks rules, and people will never realize how much until maybe his 200th win. Scherzer’s maybe my favorite non-Cubs pitcher, and I’ve got him in the top 3 over Kershaw just because of Clayton’s back.

AL: 1. Carlos Carrasco 2. Corey Kluber 3. Chris Sale

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

NL: 1. Scott Kingery 2. Ronald Acuna 3. Nick Senzel

Acuna seems like he’s gonna be a star of stars, but this could be a year where Kingery simply gets more counting stats, as he’s not having his service time manipulated (well, with the contract he signed, you could argue he still *is* being manipulated, but whatever). Acuna might be the best rookie since Bryant. Senzel’s a reach, just anticipating an injury and him coming up, playing out of position at SS, and hitting a bunch of homers in that mini-park.

AL: 1. Shohei Ohtani 2. Michael Kopech 3. Willie Calhoun

I believe in Ohtani! I think he’ll hit 12-15 homers, and be a solid #3 starter this year. Kopech could be Verlander. Calhoun is a position-less fire hydrant who might hit 25 homers in part of a year.