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daveandtrev · 7 years ago

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2017 Draft Recap

Friends, Confidants, members of the Star Wars Club, I’m going to get straight to the point. It’s good to be writing to you. Mon and I are in month five of our journey around the world (if Europe was the only continent in said world) and being the guy on his computer typing every day is starting to get me weird stares (because of course the WiFi is only in the common area.) So let’s dive into a bit of draft recap and see what we can find.

Per popular request (and for those who said I wouldn’t do it until next year week 8, Mr. Grundy) I want to take a look back at some of my favorite picks right after draft day as well as what I think are the best picks looking back after six weeks. Please note that I would have liked to have made the draft day player selections before Week 1 and I will definitely make a point of selecting these picks earlier next year. For this edition, I looked back to my final draft board and found players who went cheaper than I had them valued and picked the most interesting cases. Picks I like now are the best values with the future in mind.

One last, quick note: I’ve come to really believe that draft results are the biggest indicator of season long success. This sometimes goes without saying, but I don’t think I bought into this enough until last season. Honestly, I asked myself “Why am I not winning more?” and when I looked at the previous drafts (and my preparation habits) I started to understand. With 12 teams reducing viable waiver pickups, the draft has become even more important. I have renewed vigor for draft study and therefore will be tying the draft into most of my thinking and content about our league.

Plunk - My favorite picks on draft day: Stefon Diggs at $12. (I valued him at $15 on draft day). I liked Stefon Diggs a lot and was targeting him from the start…that is until I took the plunge on two expensive RBs in the first 3 picks of the draft and all my planning got scrapped. I was a bit worried when I heard he would play on the outside more this year (as he had so much success in the slot) but really that’s just opened up longer targets and showcased the guy’s talent. He is legit and would probably be worth $25 or more if we drafted again today. His box scores going into the year remind me a lot of Golden Tate (or even TY Hilton): blow up games (150+ yards) mixed with the occasional dud and only a lack of red zone usage/efficiency keeping him from the elite tier. (He has already tripled his RZ scoring from last year. He has three TDs already in five games compared to one TD over the entire previous season. Perhaps he can make the leap.)

Now: Chris Hogan at $3. (Honorable mention to Diggs and Gurley). Gurley has been the RB2 through 6 weeks and Diggs has been the WR7, but Chris Hogan checks in at WR8 and cost a piddly $3 on draft day. He has returned incredible value thus far and should continue to dominate the Pats WR volume. This happens once or twice a year at that point in the draft, but it’s the envy of those $17 Allen Robinson bidders. And those who bought Maclin at $7,Marshall at $8 or Crowder at $10. We won’t even mention Amari Cooper at $37 who currently sits at WR76…

Soape - My favorite pick on draft day: Kareem Hunt, $27. (Valued at $30 on draft day). I wanted to put Adam Thielen here at $3. Unfortunately, even though I liked him on draft day, my final draft board says he was a $2 player. So technically he wasn’t a draft day value. Hence I land on the only player who fits the value criteria – Kareem Hunt. I hoped that nobody would know his name with the late Spencer Ware injury and he’d land in the $18-$20 range. No such luck. Soape came out of a multi year hiatus and picked the best fantasy player in the league for under $30. I won’t even try to say I thought this kind of season was coming. I definitely did not think he’d be sitting at RB1 through 6 weeks. The only reason I put him above TyMont and Cook was because I knew his competition would be near zilch with Ware out (competition was a bit unclear in the other two cases). Well done Soape.

Now: Kareem Hunt at $27. This is clearly a league winning pick if Hunt keeps it up. Soape has shaken off the rust of a year away and is absolutely loaded (He’s also sitting on Antonio Brown and Melvin Gordon. Plus Dak, a legit WR2 in Adam Thielen and Derrick Henry lurking as an absolute beast if given the opportunity.) (How many compliments do I need to give to get that Chik-fil-A bro?)

And I’m going to cheat here….

Now (1B): Adam Thielen at $3. And here is the other lucky lotto winner who has unearthed a starter for under $5. Thielen succeeded towards the end of last year and from what I read, was legitimately creating separation on his routes and beating guys (aka being good at receiver). After talks with Grundy who was worried about the O-Line, I hesitated on my initial love for the Vikes this year and ended up downgrading their offense a bit before draft day. Big mistakey. (I should know that the homers always protect themselves from disappointment. Plenty of people were up on the Bucs this year but I was not buying it myself. It’s the disappointment that comes after elevated expectations that is the true heart killer, so even though you think you’re getting a “better” opinion by talking to said homer, you’re really introducing a reverse bias. Unless you talk to Jason. From which you get, “WE’RE GONNA THRASH!!!!”)

Swave – My favorite pick on draft day: Emmanuel Sanders at $10. (Valued at $15 on draft day). Sanders had almost the same target share as DT last year and was targeted in the red zone and inside the 10 at the exact same rate as DT. And he cost $10 less on draft day. He was a solid pick then and a solid pick now.

Now: Michael Crabtree at $18. I think Sanders is still a good bargain at that price, but I prefer Michael Crabtree today. He is still scoring TDs and its only a matter of time before the Raiders offense starts clicking. He’s currently sitting at WR11. I am starting to come around (slightly) on Duke Johnson who is becoming a staple in the game plan. I annually get nervous to back these exclusive pass catching backs but one or two always end up a top-20 RB by the end of the year and Duke could be forcing his way into the conversation at a cost of only $2.

Dave – My favorite pick on draft day: Ezekiel Elliot at $35. (Valued at $45 on draft day). So in my first draft over on ESPN with my uncle and cousins, Zeke fell to the third round. As soon as I saw him picked at 22nd overall, I knew he was a steal. I decided to make a run for him in our league and see if I could get him under $40 which I was able to do. Yes, he has risk. The suspension clearly could put a damper on things. But the upside was phenomenal. Over the years I have continually wrestled with upside vs. safety and when to pursue each. I used to love the running QBs who had “QB1 overall upside” like Vick, Kaepernick, RG3, and Cam. I would always err on the side of potential and I paid top dollar to draft them. More times than not, I got burned (drafting Vick #2 overall was the pinnacle of that thought process. It did not work out.) I don’t think the problem was pursuing these guys – I think I pursued them when they were priced the highest. Let’s face it – Zeke would have went for $50+ without a suspension. At that price, he’s a bad bet when he could miss half a fantasy season. But at $35? With the recent precedent of Brady two years back in which he played all year long through a similar suspension? I take the bet and hope he returns $50 worth of value but am not killed if he misses 6 games and turns out to only be worth around $20.

Now: Alex Smith at $1. I mean come on! We should have seen this coming right? 10 year veteran breaks out into an MVP player, tapping into the potential we always knew he had as a former #1 overall pick. He puts aside his game-manager ways to relentlessly attack defenses down the field and finally feature his stud TE. This was obvious right? Yup…sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

Cristian – My favorite pick on draft day: DeAndre Hopkins at $18. (Valued at $25 on draft day). I probably moved Hopkins and Allen Robinson more than any other players on my draft board. They oscillated between $30 and $15 for a solid month and I never felt good about the spot they were in. (My final draft board had both at $25). The thing I couldn’t argue with was opportunity (which both had a ton of last year) but the thing we knew was that quarterbacks kept them down in previous seasons, and the QB situations of both teams wasn’t resolved. Looking at it six weeks in, I laugh at how we will remember this year for those two players. Robinson was a bust, Hopkins a stud. I love this, because this is the essence of fantasy football. It’s not one-strategy-fits-all. Neither situation was better than the other on draft day (in my opinion). Yet Scooter gets burned and Cristian gets a steal. (Remember this next time you beat yourself up for your season gone amuck: fantasy football is a gambler’s game and hence you get gambler’s odds. With 12 teams its my estimate that everyone has less than a 50% chance at a playoff season, regardless of skill, and the competition in our league likely pushes that number lower (maybe 40%?) for even the most skilled players. We’ll test this thought going forward.)

Now: DeShaun Watson at $1. Yeah bro. He was the best pick on the team. He’s now starring on Jack’s team. Live by the undervalued player, die by the player who explodes after you drop him. At least he plays for the home team, right Cristian?

Monica – My favorite pick on draft day: Gronk at $28. (Valued at $30 on draft day). I also liked Demaryius Thomas at a larger discount, but I was so surprised at Gronk’s price tag (I predicted that he would go for $40) that I believe he was the best pick. The write-up on Zeke applies here. Take the risk when the price drops.

Now: Gronk at $28. I started this article last week and had Rodgers as the potential pick here. That won’t work going forward, even though I think Rodgers at $36 is a solid investment. Even after taking a 0 from a missed game, Gronk is the TE2 with a 30 point lead on the TE6. He is the #1 option on offense for New England and is the favorite to lead the position in points at season’s end.

Grundy: My favorite pick on draft day: Dalvin Cook at $19. (Valued at $25 on draft day). I told Grundy on draft night that I’d rather have Cook at $19 then TyMont at $18, both of whom I valued at $25. Offensive line issues notwithstanding, Dalvin was a massive upgrade over Vikings RBs last year and was going to be featured in the pass game. He was a good bet for work on all downs and I prefer rookies at RB (who see higher efficiency than their older counterparts.) Of course, before we see it happen on the field we are just guessing. At this price, it was a good bet that paid off before injury. (I once took Ryan Matthews in the first round when he was a rookie with the Chargers and I thought he was the next LaDainian Tomlinson. He wasn’t and I sucked that year. Even for “fantasy truths” such as rookie RBs being potentially better picks – consider the price.)

Now: Dalvin was clearly going to be the pick her pre-injury, but going forward I will pivot to Carson Wentz at $8. Wentz has made immense strides this season, vaulting the Philly pass game from the 25th ranking in Passing DVOA up to the 6th ranked team as of Week 6. (DVOA is a Football Outsiders metric which can be read about on footballoutsiders.com. It’s an efficiency metric which means that the Eagles now have a borderline elite passing offense as opposed to being among the league worst last year.) Everyone is waiting on Jameis and Mariota to make the leap – but it’s Wentz who is beating them to it. Grundy is reaping the benefits: Wentz would now fetch over $20 if we drafted today and sits as the overall QB4. (I’m imagining a wistful Jason reading this in Longview as he has collected nearly all Eagles properties without securing the most valuable piece.)

Jason – My favorite pick on draft day: Golden Tate for $11. (Valued at $20 on draft day.) I think I liked every WR that went between $10 and $12 (Sanders, Benjamin, Tate, Garcon, Diggs). Their roles were secure and I felt like most were worth $15 or more. They fell below that threshold and still I drafted exactly zero of them, leaving me with lots of post-draft regret. Tate is a stud who does everything except score double digit TDs. You’re going to get 90 catches, 1000 yards and 5 TDs no matter what. He is the guy in Detroit and he really stood out to me as a bargain when I looked over draft results for the first time. (Side note: remember when he disappeared for the first 5 games last year and he was sitting on waivers for weeks? His coaches had to come out and say he was still a priority on offense. I’m still not sure what happened – but he got his numbers by season’s end).

Now: Tate for $11. Steady as he goes. He is what we thought he was at WR13 so far. (Side note on Jason’s team: What has happened to Gilislee over the past few weeks??)

Trevor – My favorite pick on draft day: Keenan Allen at $21. (Valued at $30 on draft day). Allen has had a strange career with weird injuries. He’s torn an ACL and lacerated a kidney the last two years but has clearly been effective when healthy. I felt that those were more freak injuries than the constant nicks and bruises some players sustain (hello, Jordan Reed) and liked him quite a bit on draft day.

Now: Zach Ertz at $11. Sorry Jason, I misspoke earlier. Ertz may be more valuable than Wentz at his respective position, again showing the growth of the Eagles offense as a whole. Ertz dominated last year when Jordan Matthews was out, but small samples don’t always hold true into the next year (Kyle Rudolph dominated in a similar spot without Diggs last year, but hasn’t had the same value this year, especially without Bradford). In this case, Ertz was a clear bargain at $11 and is scoring at a much higher clip this year (his one previous knock) making him a great selection who currently tops the TE position in fantasy points. (I'll go ahead and plug him for Trevor – he’s very available for trade!)

Phil – My favorite pick on draft day: Doug Martin at $6. (Valued at $10 on draft day.) I figured he might go for $12 or $15 to someone who paired him with Quizz Rodgers or another cheap RB who could get you through the first 3 weeks. But for $6, he’s almost no risk at all. If I wouldn’t have panic drafted Maclin at $7 like a chump (and drafted an $11 WR like I wanted) I would have certainly challenged Phil on this guy. Preseason puff pieces are always something to be weary of, but the Bucs beat reporters seemed earnest on Doug being committed physically and mentally this year. Through two games, this pick looks to be on the right track.

Now: Cameron Brate at $3. Shamelessly target the home team Phil Stark. I admire your faith. Brate has gone nowhere this year despite additions of OJ Howard and DeSean Jackson, keeping his spot as the second option in the Bucs passing game. I think we need to consider the notion that he is establishing himself as a top 5 or 6 fantasy tight end (currently at TE4). Jameis loves him in the red zone and will continue to target him there and everywhere as the season progresses. (Stave Dark home team film review: Brate makes a “wow” play once or twice a game where he makes a reception with a high degree of difficulty. He’s a legitimate talent.)

Scooter: My favorite pick on draft day: Terrelle Pryor at $28. (Valued at $30 on draft day.) My pre draft thoughts: Cousins is still good and all his WRs were leaving. Pryor dominated with Cleveland and was now upgrading to a good QB on a team that wants to pass and should score points. By all accounts the guy is a physical size/speed specimen. I want to bet on guys like this. I valued him conservatively at $30 but felt his upside was top 10 at the position and simply just wanted him on my team (I told you before I’m a sucker for potential). Looking back now, I do think I should have taken two things into account. 1) New QB/WR combos take time to gel and 2) Offensive coordinator changes mean something. Sean McVay was good at his job, and we are seeing him do well with another offensive out in LA. Cousins has been merely okay without him thus far. The jury is still out here, but I absolutely bought in to the hype before the draft and thought he was a great pick.

My other favorite pick on draft day: Darren McFadden at $2. (Valued at $10 on draft day.) I was incredulous to see him go this cheap as a Zeke owner. I just ran out of money (everyone nods with empathy). I was more excited about the Pryor pick (and had more to write on it) but this pick was a great investment if Zeke were to serve his six game suspension. Picks like this can make a 2-3 win difference which can vault a team into the playoffs.

Now: Jordy Nelson at $45. This becomes much tougher to back with Rodgers down, but Hundley has shown well in the preseason before and Jordy is the best weapon on the team. He continues to have the most upside for Scooter’s team going forward.

Jack – My favorite pick on draft day: Leonard Fournette* at $20 (Valued at $25 on draft day.) I have to put an asterisk. I was scared on Fournette. Even though he was a rookie who figured to get featured usage (“fantasy truth” in the right direction) he was also on a bad team who typically see depressed running back points due to being behind on the scoreboard (“fantasy truth” in the wrong direction). He was the only player that Jack drafted who was a bargain in comparison to my auction values. So essentially I didn’t like his team on draft day. I say that for a reason: I was simply wrong. Jack is sitting at 1st overall in the league and is red hot lately as his team put up ridiculously high totals for the 4th straight week. DeShaun Watson has been the waiver pickup of the year and the Jordan Howard trade has worked out nicely thus far. This is with Martavis, Jimmy Graham, and Danny Woodhead adding little (all drafted at over $12+). But Devante is scoring, Fournette is dominant, Howard is getting fantastic volume, and the QB play is exceptional, not to mention the Jacksonville D putting up absurd stat lines. I don’t know many guys who want to win more than Jack does (or who have seen the share of fantasy disappointment that Jack has) so here’s to the scoring binge carrying on a few more weeks.

Now: Fournette at $20. It’s easy at this point. Jacksonville is not a bad team and they boast a dominant defense. I want to say they remind me of an old Ravens team, but Bortles is still 10x worse than Flacco ever was (before this year of course). Fournette is going to crush his draft value and is making a play for top 5 fantasy player in 2017 (I think Hunt, LeVeon, Antonio, and maybe Gurley or Gordon are the only other players that belong in that conversation.) Fournette is currently the overall RB3 and has outscored all WRs and TEs.

One final thought: I believe every fantasy season has a story that cannot be told without making note of significant injuries. It’s the minefield we all play in. Which bombs are going to go off while you are standing above them? This effect uniquely defines each season as much as the draft (low hanging fruit, but I think relevant). Injuries suck in real life and in fantasy too – it isn’t really a skill to avoid them. Through Week 6, here is the scoreboard of major injuries to the game’s main pieces.

Injuries per team of players drafted for $5+: Jack 1 (Woodhead), Scooter 2 (A-Rob, Olsen), Trevor 2 (Dave Johnson, Marshall), Grundy 3 (OBJ, Cook, Luck), Monica 1 (Rodgers). That’s nine major injuries to $5+ players through Week 6. When we look at just draft dollars, Grundy is playing $84 down (although Luck may return soon) and Trevor is down $58, putting both at extreme disadvantages.

I feel this is shorter than usual but 3,700 words will have to do in the midst of globetrotting. I have some other ideas for visualizing our draft investments which I will send out when the travel schedule allows. Truly, I love being a part of this league with you guys and it has been the perfect way to stay in touch with home (‘Merica).

Ciao from Italy,

Stave Dark

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