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The Return of History and Geopolitics

by Jeffrey Barg

October 15, 2014

Philosopher George Santayana once wrote, “Those who cannot learn from history are condemned to repeat it.”

When considering the repercussions of historical actions, including two world wars, and a longer, intense Cold War, learning from those who came before us is absolutely necessary.

History itself may be silent, but its voice was heard Wednesday morning at the 15th Annual World Knowledge forum in Seoul. A panel of experts including Ian Morris, history professor at Stanford University, His Serene Highness Prince Michael of Lichtenstein, Walter Russell Mead, professor of foreign affairs and humanities at Bard College, and Sung-hwan Kim, visiting professor at Seoul National University and former Korean minister of foreign affairs, discussed the current geopolitical climate and possible courses of action in a rapidly changing world.

“In one sense we have a world more integrated, largely because of IT,” said Dr. Morris. “But, in another sense, it’s more fragmented than ever before.”

While globalization has resulted in the interdependence of economies, sovereign nations are also experiencing more nationalism, largely in an effort to retain their own cultural identity and place on the world stage.

“Nationalism is a solution for distress,” added Mr. Kim. Rising nationalism could very well result in an increase in violent conflicts, the panelists agreed, although the United States serves an important purpose in this regard.

“What you have is the United States, and a weaker version with the British Empire in the past, acting as the overseer of international global order and making sure that free markets work around the world,” said Dr. Morris.

The issue of international order is especially prevalent in three areas, according to Mr. Mead.

“Russia is in a tough spot, with a unified Europe on one side and a rising China on the other. The sectarian and ethnic rivalry we see in the Middle East is very serious and will take a long time to sort out. And in Asia you have a rising power, China, surrounded by other rising powers,” he said.

However, the prospect of conflict could be undermined by the possibility of coexistence towards a mutual goal.

“Before 9/11, Bush thought of China as a competitor, but China has become a partner in the war on terror,” said Mr. Kim.

While each country may serve its role on the platform of world affairs, some countries, such as Switzerland, have their own unique ideology that they follow.

“Switzerland managed to stay out of two world wars not because they were nice people or they had cheese. If you want to be neutral, you have to have good defense, good foreign policy, and your counterparts have to know you’re ready to take action,” Prince Michael added.

If there is an answer to solving the various clashes that occur in a regular basis throughout the interconnected world, the system of governance may offer some solution for disruption, the panelists agreed.

“Capitalism is a stabilizing engine for rapid change, and for capitalism to work there has to be democracy. Democracy is, then, a necessary but not sufficient condition for the stabilization of the world,” said Mr. Mead.

With the various problems countries encounter throughout daily interactions with other nations, a simple solution to a tumultuous geopolitical climate will certainly be hard to come by. History may not provide a model for which course to take, but perhaps it will provide a model for which course not to take, and thus countries may continue their prosperity uninterrupted by the threat of violence or economic isolation.

“Knowing history doesn’t give you the answers,” Dr. Morris said. “Knowing nothing about history never gives you the answers.”