#I’ll apply suspension of disbelief and ���don’t worry about it’ to other things like face tattoos in the suburbs and timeline and ages

[here-comes-the-moose]

When I’m writing my Modern AU but then try to figure out and calculate how the life I gave the Batch is financially possible:

[riversofmars]

World Enough, And Time

Here it is! One year on from posting my first long DW fic, I'm incredibly excited to start another! I'll keep working on all the prompts as well but I need a big thing to sink my teeth into and I'm really excited about this. I've had a lot of requests about doing more River & 13 having children but I also wanted to do a suspenseful adventure... so why not do both? I won't give too much away but I really hope you'll like it! <3

Rating: General, will probably go up to Teen for mild threat etc

Word Count: 4.8k 

River Song is pregnant when she leaves the Doctor on Darillium, intent on investigating an emerging threat to the family they would soon have. Time and space get in the way and soon she finds herself having to entrust her newborn to Vastra and Jenny for safekeeping. While River sets off to the Library looking for clues, the Paternoster Gang reach out to the Doctor. Their message arrives far later than expected.

Chapter 1: After The Long Night

Darillium, 52nd Century

“You’re up early.“ The Doctor’s Scottish drawl was soft and affectionate as it pulled River Song out of her thoughts. She looked up from buttoning her blouse to find her husband entering their suite with breakfast on a tray. She smiled at the little routine that had snuck in over the past twenty-four years. Every morning the Doctor would bring her breakfast in bed; if you could call it morning. On Darillium, a night lasted twenty-four Earth-standard years so of course it wasn’t actually the morning as such, just the end of their sleep cycle. The Doctor always woke first, he slept far less than River, which he insisted was due to his Timelord physiology. River, however, knew there was more to it. Romance wasn’t the Doctor’s strong suit but this he was comfortable with, so she indulged him.

“Up bright and early, yes. Big day ahead.“ River answered cheerfully as she regarded herself in the mirror of her dresser: Just a touch of make up, some mascara and lipstick to apply and she would be combat ready. She could feel his eyes on her but she didn’t turn, she struggled enough without having to look in his puppy dog eyes.

“Going somewhere?“ The Doctor frowned, observing his wife more carefully. Lots of things pointed to something being off, but none more obvious than the gun holster and blaster pistole. She’d had the good grace of draping her jacket over it but he wasn’t fooled that easily. The Doctor glanced out of a window to find that day was about to break. The long night was over and his hearts grew heavy with the knowledge of what was to come. For so long he had pretended that this day wouldn’t come. It had been such an abstract concept, a point in their future that they needn’t worry about. Twenty-four years had flown by. If only they had more time. For the man who had been running all his life, decades of standing still had been the most welcome reprieve. He tried his best to swallow down his emotions as he watch her get up. He knew he couldn’t reveal the foreknowledge he had. He couldn’t change his wife’s future as he world be rewriting his own past, but for a moment, he seriously considered it.

“Nothing for you to worry about. I’ll be back in no time.“ River winked as she strapped her vortex manipulator to her wrist. She had considered borrowing her husband’s TARDIS but had come to the conclusion that she preferred her own means of time travel: less bulky. She didn’t like leaving him upset but there were things she had to do; and it wasn’t like she wasn’t going to come back. She thought it best for both of them if they didn’t make a big deal about it.

“Cup of coffee first?“ The Doctor tried his best to sound cheerful but his smile didn’t quite reach his eyes. He knew this was how it ended, even if River did not. This would be the last time they would see each other.

“Tell you what, I’ll be sure to pop back in five minute’s time, then we can have a proper breakfast.“ River realise the Doctor had seen her gun so she didn't bother trying to hide it and instead made quite work of fastening the holster to herself. She was surprised that he didn’t comment. It had so often been cause for disagreement but now, he looked resigned to it. It almost gave her pause. “I will be back.“ She said, addressing his obvious discomfort with a reassuring smile.

“Of course you will.“ He forced a smile in return. “At least have a bite to eat. No good running around on an empty stomach and knowing you, there will be lost of running.“ He tried to make light of the situation, setting the tray down at last.

“To be honest, I’m not really hungry. Bit of an upset stomach.“ River pulled her coat on, the last item of clothing she required.

“The sunrise then. Let me have that at least. Come on, we’ve waited twenty-four years for it!“ He wouldn’t take no for an answer. He grabbed her wrist and pulled her along to the balcony. Countless nights they’d sat there and looked at the stars together. Now, first light snuck across the marble floor.

“If you insist.“ River couldn’t deny him this. He opened the double doors and lead her outside. The air was brisk but there was a sweetness to it as first sunbeams alleviated the long night, almost like the smell of spring flowers on Earth. The sky was a marvel of pink, orange and purple. A sunrise that would creep across the sky for years as the long day began. River couldn’t wait to come back. It wasn’t an empty promise, she fully intended on it. She didn’t care what the stories said. It was idle gossip that she didn’t care for: so what if this was the last night she spent with the Doctor? She intended to make it a lovely day, too. There were just a few things she had to deal with so she could rest easily. They had found happiness on Darillium and she was not prepared to let anything jeopardise that.

“So? What do you think?“ The Doctor’s voice pulled her out of her thoughts and he wrapped his arms around her as she stood at the railing, looking out across the barren world that had been their home for so long now. It wasn’t quite the same view as from the restaurant balcony but they could still make out the Singing Towers in the distance. A faint hum carried over to them. It was distinctly more sad than their song during the sunset.

“I love you.“ River grabbed on to his arms, holding them tightly across her stomach. It was the simplest truth of her life and there was nothing else to say. This wasn’t goodbye. She would be back as soon as she could and for the Doctor it would be no time at all. She took note of the space time coordinates on her vortex manipulator so she wouldn’t be late when she returned.

“I love you, too, River.“ He pressed a kiss to the back of her head, holding her close. River took a deep breath struggling for composure as the depth of the emotion in his voice took her off guard. He wasn’t exactly the romantic or overly emotional type, so she appreciated his words and their meaning all the more.

“Right then, don’t get all sentimental on me now. I’ll be back before you know it. And I’ll probably have worked up an appetite so don’t eat all the croissant again!“ River joked, trying her best not to let her husband’s emotional statement rattle her. She had every intention of returning and nothing would be able to keep her from finding him again. Till death do us apart - And she really meant it. They had wasted too much time slipping in and out of each other’s lives. They had a life together now and so much more to look forward to. She would be back as soon as she could; as soon as she had seen to their continued safety. She turned in his arms and stood on her tiptoes to press a soft, comforting kiss to his lips.

“Don’t be long.“ The Doctor took her face in his hands and kissed her forehead softly, though not quickly enough to stop River catching a glimpse of the deep sadness in his eyes.

“Wouldn’t dream of it.“ She tried her best to reassure him with another kiss but couldn’t bring herself to say anything else without chocking up. She hoped he already knew all the things she couldn’t say. “Won’t be a minute, Sweetie.“ She took a step back, out of his arms and engaged the vortex manipulator before he could change his mind about trying to stop her.  

——

London, Late 19th Century

“Ma’am?“

“Not now, Jenny, I am so close to seeing this pattern, there has to be something to it…“ Madame Vastra stepped back from the board she was currently pinning notes to. They were dealing with a very complicated case of jewellery theft all across London’s high society and the Silurian was sure she was close to cracking it. If anyone could, it was her, she was the Great Detective after all, and she worked hard to live up to the title.

“Ma’am it’s rather important.“ Jenny Flint interrupted, intent on getting her attention. “We have a visitor.“

“If it’s Inspector Abberline again, I will contact him as soon as I have news. That man is so terribly impatient.“ Vastra sighed with a dismissive wave. She didn’t take kindly to her work being interrupted.

“It’s not the Inspector, Ma’am. It is rather more important and … impossible … as that.“ Jenny insisted more firmly which made the lizard woman look around at last.

“Impossible, you say?“ She echoed, her interest peaked. The expression on her wife’s face made clear this matter required her urgent attention.

“Quite.“ Jenny confirmed and stepped aside.

Vastra had barely made it out of her study when she spotted a woman waiting in the entrance hall. Despite having her back turned to her, the lady of the house recognised her immediately. In her long life, she had ever only known one person who sported a head of hair as impressive as that.

“Professor Song.“ Vastra tried to keep surprise and disbelief from her voice but she couldn’t quite manage it. The last time they had seen River Song was when they had contacted her at the Library in aid of the Doctor. She had been dead a while then, her mind uploaded to the data core but without physical shape. Conscious but trapped. This River Song, however, insisted on looking so very much alive. Particularly when she turned around, revealing a small baby boy in her arms. She cradled him against her chest trying to sooth him. He was crying, the time jump had woken him up.

“Madame Vastra, I am ever so sorry to barge into your home like this, but I need your help and I know I can rely on the three of you.“ She glanced in between the two woman and then up to Strax who had just appeared on the landing, eager to see what the commotion was about.

“No offence, Professor, but you should be…“ Jenny started but Vastra quickly jumped in, shushing her.

“How can we be of service, Professor? Is this about the Doctor?“

“Somewhat. Not quite. He doesn’t know about this and he needn’t know just yet, I need him to be focused for what happens next.“ River answered vaguely. She had been determined to keep the Doctor blissfully unaware for her activities but she had taken far too long already. Now, things were getting to the point where she couldn’t keep him in the dark any longer. She needed his help but he couldn’t know about her visit here, not yet anyway.

When she had left Darillium, she had imagined things differently: What was meant to be a quick investigatory trip had turned into nine months of goose chases and dead ends. Her hopes of returning to Darillium and keeping the Doctor out of it had been dashed when she realised she would need his help. She swallowed the guilt about what else she had kept from him but she knew she couldn’t have take the chance of returning early and putting all of them in danger.  

“How long ago did you leave him?“ Vastra asked slowly, appraising their visitor. She appeared exhausted but insisted on compensating for it by carrying herself with assurance and purpose.

“About nine months of my time. Now please…“ River averted her eyes, avoiding the judgment she feared she’d find in Vastra’s expression. Instead she focused on the child in her arms, who started wailing again.

“And the child…“ Vastra prompted softly, sensing how the other woman was struggling.

“There is somewhere I have to go and I can’t take him.“ River shook her head to herself, feeling herself tear up. “It would be too dangerous but it’s something I have to do.“

“Is he…“ Vastra knew the answer to the question but she had to ask regardless to be sure of what they were dealing with.

“Yes.“ River took a deep breath and looked up to Vastra with a sad smile, touched by the deep sympathy in her eyes.

“And the Doctor doesn’t know?“ Jenny asked, stepping closer as well.

“Not yet.“ River shook her head, focusing on the baby again. It was painful beyond words. The past nine months had been tough. River considered herself a strong and independent woman but pregnancy and child birth was not something she had imagined having to do by herself.

“But why?“ Jenny asked reaching out to touch River’s arm, hoping to give some comfort that she seemed to badly need.

“He can’t know. Not until I’ve figured out who is after us.“ River shook her head to herself. “I’ve been investigating. Someone is looking for the Doctor, for me, and for…“ She took a deep breath trying to compose herself. “It’s hard to explain. There are so many layers to it, so much time… But I won’t let them endanger my family so… I need you to look after our son until I have got to the bottom of what is going on.“ She explained why she was here, as if it wasn’t obvious by now. “I have recorded everything I’ve found out so far in a file. It’s in the bag.“ She nodded towards a duffle bag of baby supplies that she had brought with her. “Please, you have no idea how hard this is…“ Uncharacteristically, River’s voice cracked and Jenny stepped forward quickly extending her hands. River kissed the top of her child’s head and passed him over. He cried and Jenny instinctively started rocking him, holding him close to her chest.

Vastra placed her hand on her wife’s back as she looked at the small child. He appeared human for all intents and purposes. Milky skin and dark curls, a couple of weeks old at the most.

“We will keep him safe.“ Vastra promised as she looked back to River who was welling up with tears.

“I know you will.“ She nodded struggling for composure. There was no-one she trusted more, expect perhaps her own parents, but they were beyond her reach. River pulled a piece of cloth from her coat. It was moss green with golden stitching on. She draped it across the baby’s chest which seemed to calm him a little. Jenny immediately recognised the prayer leaf Amy Pond had been given for her baby - River - at Demon’s Run. A lump formed in Jenny’s throat as she realised how history was repeating itself in a most cruel way. The little boy curled his tiny fingers around the silky fabric, holding on for comfort, and River smiled. “I will be back as soon as I can.“ She said and it wasn’t clear who she was talking to: Her friends, her child or herself.

“Can you at least tell us where you’re going?“ Vastra asked, needing to be sure their assumptions were correct.

“The Library.“ River answered, refocusing on the task ahead. She was confident she would find answers there. The expedition was a means of getting in but what she really needed was the data core.

“And what if you don’t come back?“ Strax pipped up, earning scolding glances from Vastra and Jenny. Even though they all had the same foreknowledge of events, they refrained from posing that painful question.

“I will.“ River said firmly, leaving no room for doubt, the tragic irony lost on her. “But if something happens…“ She couldn’t deny that maybe, they would need to get in contact with her. “I am meeting up with the Doctor. In case of emergency, there is a beacon in the bag. It will find the TARDIS, wherever it is.“ Always the pragmatist, River had prepared for that eventuality, even if she didn’t want to seriously consider it.

“Does he have a name?“ Jenny asked, trying to distract herself from the fact that the little boy in her arms was about to lose a parent.

“Not yet.“ River admitted reluctantly, though grateful for the change of subject. “I didn't want to make that decision without the Doctor… hopefully we will soon.“

“Best of luck, Professor.“ Vastra reached out and gave her hand a squeeze, overcome by deep sorrow at her friends fate that was turning out to be ever more tragic than she had ever realised. Her heart ached for her. “I promise we will look after him well.“ It was a most heartfelt promise. She didn’t know what sort of trouble was chasing the Doctor's family but she was prepared to lay down her life in aid of their dear friends. River nodded gratefully.

“Thank you for this.“ River managed a weak smile at the three of them. She bent down and kissed her son’s head one last time. “I love you, darling, be a good boy for them, they’d take good care of you.“ She whispered and stood, her vision blurred, unable to say anything else so she engaged her vortex manipulator.

“What do we do?“ Jenny was the first to break the heavy silence that followed. She could contain her emotions any longer, tears sprung to her eyes as she rocked the little boy who started to cry again, the moment his mother had departed.  

“We have to tread carefully not to interfere with the time streams. I don’t think the Professor was prepared for this eventuality.“ Vastra mused, trying to focus on the issue at hand so she wouldn’t be overcome herself.

“She didn’t even ask about him the last time we spoke.“ Jenny recalled.

“I have never known anyone as proficient at keeping secrets as Professor Song, particularly when there is a timeline to protect. She will know what she can and can’t say at any given time, we must trust in that.“ Vastra took a deep breath.

“So what now?“ Jenny held the baby close, whispering words of encouragement as he carried on crying, holding on to the prayer leaf for dear life.

“Now I shall see to it that the child is fed, give it here.“ Strax announced in his usual matter-of-factly tone.

“Strax, he’s just lost his mother, do you think you could be a bit more compassionate?“ Jenny snapped, affronted.

“Get this little guy settled in.“ Vastra reached out and stroked the boy’s head. “We shall give the Professor a few days. Never underestimate her or the Doctor. For all we know, she will either find a way of contacting him or manage to somehow, miraculously, escape herself. And then, they will know where to find us. We keep the child safe, as was asked of us.“ She explained receiving affirming nods from the others.

“It will give us a chance to devise a battle plan against whatever is coming for them.“ Strax stated and for once Vastra had to agree. With any luck, the Professor’s file would proof enlightening.

“And what if they don’t come, either of them?“ Jenny asked softly as the baby finally stopped crying and instead look up at them with big blue eyes.

“Then she’s left us the means of finding his father.“ Vastra said as she pulled River’s notes out of the duffle bag, alongside a small emergency transmitter.

——

Sheffield, 2021

The Doctor turned away from the door and made her way to the console. They had remained in their stupor for far too long after Graham and Ryan had left. With a deep breath she decided to refocus her energies on the future: New adventures. Freedom after nineteen years imprisonment. Answers to the questions that had been haunting her since the destruction of Gallifrey.

“So. Where do you want to go?“ The Doctor feigned enthusiasm as Yasmin Kahn joined her at the console.

“You’re the one that’s been locked up for years, you must have some idea of where you want to go.“ Yaz retorted with an encouraging smile. Neither one of them was particularly in the mood for an adventure - not after having said goodbye to their close friends - but if they didn’t set off soon, their sadness would overwhelm them.

“How about you decide?“ The Doctor looked to the central crystal, addressing the TARDIS. “You always have such strong opinions on where I oughtto be, how about now?“

As if on cue, the lights in the TARDIS turned a threatening red, alarms started blaring and the floor started shaking as the engines engaged.

“Okay, this is a bit more than I expected!“ The Doctor grabbed on to the console for dear life as they were thrown about. Wherever they were going, the TARDIS was in a hurry. The Doctor pulled herself along the console to where she could check where they were going.

“Doctor, what’s going on?“ Yaz yelled over the noise and the Doctor shook her head.

“I don’t know!“ She called back.

“Emergency beacon retrieval engaged.“ A robotic voice announced.

“Since when do we have emergency beacons?!“ The Doctor retorted dumbfounded. Only moments later, the TARDIS ground to a halt. The bumpy ride came to an abrupt end and the lighting normalised as if nothing had ever happened.

“Where are we?“ Tentatively, Yaz let go of the console and straightened herself up. If the Doctor couldn't explain how this had happened, perhaps she could at least oblige with the destination. The blonde didn’t answer straight away, she checked the readings, then rechecked them again.

“London, late eighteen-hundreds.“ She said at last, surprised at how pleasant and unthreatening an outcome it was, considering the rough and urgent travel.

“Love the Victorian times!“ Yaz’s expression brightened immediately. That was most certainly a time period she was interested in seeing.

“Let’s not get over excited, let’s find out why we’re here first. That was no ordinary jump.“ The Doctor cautioned her. She had never seen the TARDIS react with quite this level of urgency before and she knew she would be a fool to ignore it.

They made their way to the door and the Doctor stuck her head out for a look around.

“HA!“ She exclaimed sounding both excited and relieved. “12 Paternoster Row!“ She gestured to the familiar London townhouse as she stepped outside and Yaz followed her.

“I take it you know who lives here?“ Yaz concluded and the Doctor clapped her hands together, full of eager anticipation.

“It’s only the finest investigative trio of this time period!“ She announced making her way up to the front door. “Not to mention some of my best friends. They must have sent out a call!“ She knocked on the door and was surprised and unsettled when it gave way. It wasn’t locked, quite the contrary, the lock had been forced out of the frame.

“An emergency call…“ Yaz dropped her voice to a whisper as the Doctor pushed the door open further. Slowly, they advanced into the hallway and the Doctor held her hand out, barring Yaz’s way. The corridor was in ruins but it was no ordinary destruction. “Everything looks so… old…“ Yaz couldn’t think of a better way of putting it. The cabinets looked like they would fall apart at the smallest touch. The coats on the hangers by the door were flayed with moths having been at been at them. The stairs that lead up to the second floor seemed brittle and rotten. The Doctor didn’t answer as she mind was already racing at a hundred miles an hour. She could only think of one weapon that could cause this particular brand of destruction.

“Be very careful now, there might be more…“

“More what?“ Yaz asked anxiously, minding her step on the well worn floor.

“Traps…“ The Doctor used her sonic screwdriver to scan the way ahead.

They found Madame Vastra first, at the far end of the hall. Disregarding her own advice, the Doctor threw caution to the wind and rushed over to her. She quickly checked for vital signs as Yaz just stared at her. She had seen many things on her travels with the Doctor but a lizard woman in Victorian London came as a surprise.

“She’s breathing.“ The Doctor exclaimed, relieved. “She wouldn’t have taken the full blast. Plus, Silurians have a longer life span than humans. Grab me some water.“ She gestured to the kitchen which was in the adjourning room. It looked like Vastra had just stepped out of it as the explosion had taken place. Yaz obeyed and rushed to get water from the sink, the destruction hadn’t reached as far as that, everything looked the way Yaz would have imagined, based on all those period dramas her mum liked to watch.

Without much ado, the Doctor chucked the glass of water into the Silurian’s face and Vastra woke with a start. Instinctively she lashed out for the Doctor with her tongue who saw it coming and just about ducked the attack.

“Vastra, it’s okay!“ She held her hands up where her friend could see them.

“Who are you?“ Vastra looked around panicked, disoriented as she pushed herself up and scrambled away from the Doctor, trying to assess where the danger was coming from.

“Vastra, it’s me, calm down, you called me here.“ The Doctor tried to sooth her as she realised Vastra wouldn’t recognise her. She hadn’t seen this face of hers before. “I’m the Doctor.“

“You’re not the Doctor.“ It was an automatic knee-jerk reaction, as Vastra calmed down a little but couldn’t think through what she was saying.

“Yes, I am, I’ve regenerated.“ The Doctor insisted, moving a little closer and the detective inched back again. “You’re Vastra, the great detective of Paternoster Row, married to Jenny Flint. Friend to Commander Strax of Sontar. You and I, we are old friends. You stood with me in my darkest hour and saved my life more times than I care to admit, now please, let it be my turn, what happened here?“ She pleaded with her to understand and slowly, recognition dawned on Vastra’s face.

“Doctor…“ Her expression softened but her confusion remained: “What happened? I feel like I’ve aged a hundred years… where we attacked?“ She struggled to sit up properly.

“Yes you have and yes you were. Chronon mine, by the looks of it.“ The Doctor revealed as it was the only thing she knew that could cause this sort of damage. “You don’t remember anything else? Where are Jenny and Strax?“

“They would have been upstair with… Oh, Goddess, Doctor, I am so sorry.“ The realisation hit Vastra like a punch in the gut and left her struggling to breath.

“Yaz, stay with her, I’ll go look upstairs.“ Before either of them could protest, the Doctor jumped to her feet and returned to the hallway. She climbed the brittle stairs, hanging on to the railing tightly. The destruction hadn’t reached the upper level. It seemed as if it had just been a means of diversion, but to what end? A unsettling feeling of foreboding crept into her subconscious. There was only one species that was able to pack time into a bomb.

She tiptoed down the corridor. There wasn’t a sound so she couldn’t imagine whoever had attacked them was still around but she couldn’t be too careful. She engaged her sonic screwdriver again to scan the hallway ahead. No traps, no bombs, just two life signs, one human, one Sontaran. She breathed a sigh of relief and carried on to the room at the end of the hall. There, she found Jenny and Strax lying unconscious amongst signs of a struggle. The Doctor lingered in the doorway, her brow knotted into a frown, as she tried to make sense of the scene in front of her. In the centre of the room stood a cot that Jenny and Strax had seemingly tried to protect.  

“Doctor, wait…“ Vastra’s voice hardly registered as the Doctor walked further into the room. Despite Yaz’s help up the stairs, Vastra was not quick enough to stop her from finding what the Silurian feared she would. The Doctor spotted the familiar green cloth that lay abandoned in the empty cot and reached for it. “Doctor, I’m sorry…“ The Doctor turned the prayer leaf in her hand that carried her wife’s name. It was one of River’s most treasured possessions. What was it doing here in a baby’s cot?

[sometimes-love-is-enough]

meat!

well that seems like a fairly conclusive response (only one person voted for just candy). you did this to yourselves

Title: soma

Summary: What’s that thing people say about ignorance?

Notes:

This takes into account and is somewhat of a followon to the stuff established in these three remixes of melliferous, so if you’re confused, i am SO sorry. it’s not that much better from this end of things, trust me.

less of an epilogue, more of an addition or maybe a series of vignettes in the melliferous multiverse. because apparently that’s a thing now. this is dubiously canon. take it as you will.

Warnings: for the usual melliferous content – bugs and drugs, death, unreality, body horror, cannibalism. And also corpse desecration, and dismemberment! If any of these even vaguely seem like they might upset you, please turn back now.

For I was hungry, and I ate you. I was thirsty, and I drank you. [sic] – Matthew 25:35

*

i.

“You know what’s bugging me?” Thomas says, millions of cycles into all of this, and two swiftly-downed shot glasses into the last of Lady Seph’s newest round of stock.

“Haha, bugs.” Patton lowers his glass of starfire briefly to give a weak fingergun in Thomas’s direction. “Because – you know, everything’s bugs down here for some reason?”

Logan is halfway to drunk and halfway to dead already. It’s just one of those lifetimes. The fact that’s he’s mostly dust and barely able to hold up his glass does not, however, stop him from theorizing, “You know, it really is entirely possible that they aren’t actually insects, and their carapacian forms are a result of some form of convergent evolution.”

“Stop trying to apply logic to them,” Roman moans. He makes a face and raises a sleeve to his mouth to try to scrub the taste of honey off of his tongue. It lingers strangely, sweetly. “Haven’t you ever heard of willing suspension of disbelief? We’re not meant to understand this.”

Remus is dissolving. But cheerfully. “Yeah, it’s more fun this way!”

“For a certain definition of fun, sure,” is Virgil’s muttered take.

“Or maybe the evolution path was divergent in form. A potential split somewhere along the line, dividing from beings of a celestial persuasion into what we find ourselves as today into insectoid and humanoid, both created in their image...”

“It does appear that God has an inordinate fondness for beetles,” says Janus. “Holistically, that is.”

Thomas frowns. “...Guys, are we having oblique yet resonant Socratic dialogue again?”

“When are we not? Someone check for cameras, I’d hate for this one to go up online, unedited,” Janus replies, somewhat sardonically, and raises his own glass. “Refill, if you would.”

A flurry of flowers, a fluttering of wings, and good old Auntie Seph is back again with another bottle of gods-knows-what. “Y’all ain’t sticking around for long this time, huh?”

“A few more minutes, maybe,” Virgil confirms as she passes by and swishes back into the darkness of the bar to continue her evening rounds. “I think I’m really going off steak at this point, honestly.”

“What were you saying, Thomas?” Roman asks, trying to sit up straighter. “Something bugging you? Something you can’t quite, um – ”

“Bee-lieve?” Patton supplies.

“Sure. Uh. The steak,” Thomas says. “I had some this time, you know? It was...” He struggles for words.

“Delicious,” Virgil says with a grimace.

“Remarkably well-seasoned for something drenched in honey and not much else,” Roman comments, who had also partaken in the steak this time around for some unknown, unknowable reason.

“Human!” Remus crows, teeth flashing white in the dimness of the lowly-lit bar. “Soylent Green is people! Or did I make that joke already...?”

“We all knew it was human flesh, Remus,” Logan sighs, listing even further sideways. “It’s not as if there are any cows down here to harvest the steak from, let alone any other animals. And if you examine the entomology and feeding habits of the American vulture bee – ”

“The humans around here don’t look very, um. Meaty,” Thomas says. “Just saying. It’s – they’re – ”

“Hollow? They would be,” Janus points out. “In case you haven’t noticed, the bees are sucking them dry. They’re all essentially husks.”

“So where does she get the steak from?” Thomas asks again, and nobody has an answer for them, most likely because they’re all far too busy shrivelling away into the darkness.

“Oh, never mind,” Patton yawns. “We’re dead anyway. What does it matter?”

“...Good point. I’ll work it out next time.” Thomas studies the bar with bleary eyes. The faded photographs and portraits on the walls, the legions of shades drinking in their usual solemn silence. “So where do you go when you die if you’re already in hell?”

“Hell 2,” Remus suggests, slumping against the bar, “This Time With More Capitalism.”

“Not too loud, you’ll give my wife ideas,” Seph tells them from across the bar, and raises her glass to them. A farewell toast. “And don’t you think too hard about the steak thing. You’ll only end up hurting yourself.”

And then it’s dust to dust, and the wheel begins to turn again.  

*

ii.

The party’s in full swing when Virgil says to Thomas, quite frankly, “I hate parties.”

The lights are bright above them. The air is fresh with the birth of spring, and the music is loud and ringing through the air like a hailing chorus fit for the arrival of a queen.

Thomas clears his throat after a moment. “Okay, not that I don’t appreciate the commentary... but, uh, Virge-?”

“I’m here because you’re anxious,” Virgil supplies, folding his arms and resting his head on top of them. “Parties, man. Just stay home and browse Netflix for the millionth time, why don’t you?”

“It’s good for me to get out, and also, I’m pretty sure you don’t need to be here for me to be anxious. It happens anyway. That wasn’t what I was going to ask.” He rests his hand on a nearby tree and watches Logan and Patton attempting to reconcile their two extremely different ideas of ‘dancing’, on the fly, on the dance floor. “...Why are you sitting on my shoulders?”

“I like being tall,” replies Virgil.

“Hm,” says Thomas. “Okay, fair enough.”

Janus is over in the far corner chatting with the grinning man; the one with the hat and the constantly-in-motion wings and the laugh like the rattling of a lock clicking open. They’re talking about car chases and unlikely escapes and flights into the night, they’re comparing false identities and secrets they’ve never told anyone else; they’re lying wildly to each other.

On top of a table of cakes and sweetmeats piled high to the heavens, Remus perches and engages in deep, fascinated conversation with a lady whose crystal-cut eyes shine in the bright sunlight. They speak of rot, of rebirth, of blazing heat and screaming cold.  Her wings are familiar. Nothing else about her is. That’s another story, though, one to be told later.

“Well, this is new,” says Seph, sauntering over. A crooked flower crown rests in her hair with all the colors of spring, and the wine glass her long spindly fingers are curled securely around seems to be filled with actual proper honest-to-god wine. Her eyes are bright, her coat is long, her wings are radiant. “Now, what brings a scattered disaster of a man like you to a party like this?”

Thomas blinks. Virgil’s arms, looped loosely around the top of his head, tighten. “I’m... sorry, do I know you?”

“In a roundabout sort of way, maybe,” she replies, and swirls the wine before slurping it up with that long, long tongue of hers. “Lady of the spring, at your service. You here by invite, or-?”

“Hey, I can’t actually remember how we got here,” Virgil mutters into Thomas’s hair.

Thomas hovers, suddenly extremely worried. “Should I. Like. Leave?”

“Not a worry. The blooming of spring is a party for everyone,” she says wisely, and then grins wide and sharp and tosses her empty glass to one side, where it shatters into crystal shards and light. “‘Specially me. Even if I’m late. ‘Specially if I’m late. Have you tried the food? It’s to die for, and for once ya don’t even have to die to eat it!”

“...Is this a fairy ring?” Virgil says suspiciously, peering down at her from his perch on Thomas’shoulders. “You legally have to tell us if it’s a fairy ring, otherwise it’s entrapment.”

Seph laughs. “Naw. Different story, that. Don’t worry too much about the details, just have fun – it ain’t gonna last for very long.” She adjusts the flowers adorning her head, tucking chrysanthemum blooms back to stop them falling over her eyes, and extends a hand in Thomas’s direction. Her long fingers wiggle; an invitation. “Here, come on and dance, kiddo, while we’ve still got the time.”

Virgil sighs and complains but gets down from Thomas’s shoulders with a catlike tumble that leaves him crouched on the ground, and he claps Thomas on the shoulder before going to join Remus.

Seph isn’t any threat. Not here, not to them. She’s a friend, in a roundabout sort of way.

“All right,” says Thomas. “So, let’s dance.”

The music blares, rising with brass and percussion and strings struck with purpose and energy both. Out onto the dance floor with them, and into the fray. Seph dances like she drinks – careless and wild; sloppy but purposeful. She whirls them around, cackling in time with the music-from-nowhere, kicking up her heels in the dirt. She’s a different person entirely, up here, full of light and laughter and a kind of rusted-and-rough love for everything around her.

Thomas lets her lead and lets her swing and swirl him around in mad spirals, wild and free as a honeybee in a summertime frame of mind. They laugh and yell and stomp and he thinks he might have started to sing along at some point, although there’s no earthly way he should know the words.

“But what about the steak?” Thomas asks as she pulls away and he stumbles back, dizzy and high on the thrill of life.

“What about the steak?” she replies, and there’s another glass of wine in her hand already. “Don’t you know what they say about ignorance? See you when winter comes around, sugar. Let’s hope we get it right this time, hey?”

*

iii.

Virgil sits and goes at it with a fork-and-knife, breaking the steak up into bite-sized chunks. It’s tough and he has to saw a bit to cut through. Juices bubble and spill across his plate, honey pooling in concentric little patterns. The centre of it is red-rare; just like he likes. He spears a chunk with his fork, and holds it to his lips.

He doesn’t take a bite.

He says, “I don’t get why we have to do this.”

Remus says, “Sure you do, it’s what we do every time. I say ‘funny how it doesn’t feel like much of a choice at all’, and you say – ”

“This is some sort of cycle, isn’t it? Some kind of loop.”

“Uh, no?” Remus puts down his steak. (He doesn’t bother using the knife. His hands are sticky with honey and meat-juice. Although the honey is a kind of meat-juice too, if you think about it.) “You’ve never said that before. Usually it’s something sardonic to hide the fact that’s you’re extremely freaked out.”

“Remus,” says Virgil thoughtfully, still staring at his fork.

“Mm?”

“How often are you aware of the fact that we’re stuck in some kind of horrible time loop cycle?”

“Oh, only when it’s funny,” says Remus, and tears off a long, thick strip of meat from his meal with his back teeth.

“Right,” says Virgil. “Right, okay.” He pauses. “So, have we figured out where the steak comes from yet, or..?”

“Shh,” says Remus, sloppily raising a filthy-sweet finger to Virgil’s lips. “Don’t spoil the moment, Great Skittish Bake-Off. I never get invited over for family dinner, this is a novelty.”

“Gosh, I wonder why,” Virgil mutters, but shuts up and eats his damned steak like a good little cog in the machine.

*

iv.

“Okay, here’s another question,” Thomas says, tossing a stone into the Styx. It doesn’t make a sound, mainly because an infinite number maggots don’t tend to have much surface tension to break. “When you all went and decided ‘right, time to go get Thomas back from being extremely dead’...”

“Mm?” says Janus, sorting through their makeshift tacklebox with an absent look on his face.

“...Do you want to explain why your first thought was let's go to hell?”

Patton acquires an extremely shifty look on his face, and doesn’t reply. Instead, he casts his fishing line high and wide, and nods approvingly as the hook and lure and end of the line disappear into the seething mass of maggots.

“What are you even fishing for,” Virgil complains, trying to smudge excess honey off his clothes. “More maggots? It’s not like there’s any fish in that whole mess.”

“You don’t know that,” insists Patton, stubbornly optimistic. “There might be fish.”

“Dead fish, maybe,” Logan says dryly.

“Guys, no, seriously. What specifically did I do to make you think I was in hell. I mean, you weren’t wrong, but I – I really desperately need to know your reasoning, come on, don’t just – ”

Remus lies on his stomach several distance away. He’s also fishing, but he’s doing it with his bare hands. Which doesn’t seem very safe or sanitary, but stopping him would probably be more trouble than it’s worth. “Maybe he’s fishing for the steak,” he suggests.

“That’s even more unlikely than the fish,” Roman replies, snorting.

“Eh. ‘Bout as likely as anything that goes on down here.” Remus makes a wild swipe into the river and comes up with a bloody fistful of maggots. “Just saying. Maybe that’s how she gets her hands on the meat. She dredges through the river and pulls out the people that fell in and fries them all up for dinner, sweet and hot.”

“If the maggots don’t get to them first,” Virgil points out.

Remus holds up his hand obligingly, letting everyone see that his fistful of maggots are currently going absolutely to town on the meat of his hand. Bone is gleaming through the raw-hamburger mess of red and more red.

“I thought maggots only went for dead flesh,” Patton hums, and jolts as his fishing rod jerks and bends, straining against some pressure on the other end of the rod.

“Patton,” says Thomas glumly, having resigned himself to the fact that nobody at all is planning to answer his extremely pertinent and important question, “I have to break this to you, I really do, but we are all extremely dead.”

“Oh, yeah,” Patton says, reeling in his catch. “Ha! I keep forgetting about that, would you believe it? Now, I wonder what I caught...”

The catch is maggots. It’s all maggots, down there. Some are much livelier than others, but still maggots. Not that any of that’s going to stop Patton, though. What’s that thing people tend to say about hope?

*

v.

Back straight, hands clasped, chair pulled up tight as it can go to the lip of the kitchen table. His leg jitters on the underside of the table, his nervousness invisible in the darkness.

“I just want to see,” Thomas says.

Missus Hades hums lowly to herself, before raising her cigarette up and away, letting the smoke peel off towards the dark ceiling tiles. The lights buzz, or maybe that’s the bees. “You really won’t like what you find, you know.”

“Let me guess,” says Virgil, pressed up tight in the corner like he’s trying to melt into Thomas’s side. “We never do.”

“Don’t know about that,” she says. “Far as I’m aware, you’ve never asked. I just know you’re really not going to like it.”

The smoke doesn’t smell scratchy and musty in the way that Thomas expects cigarette-smoke to smell. It’s like a bonfire. Maybe a bit floral. A hint of nostalgia to it.

“We’ve been doing this for so long,” Logan says. The lighting in here does weird things to his glasses, makes them all honey-red-shiny and alien. He doesn’t come in here often, never has. “If it doesn’t impact us, surely there’s no harm in telling us. And if it does, we really would like to know.”

Missus Hades leans sideways, bends down to skritch-scratch one of her larger-than-average pets behind its ears, or where its ears would be. They seem to enjoy it, at the very least. Her smile is sideways and strange and barely genuine. “Now what’s that they say about curiosity, again?”

“There’s no cats down here,” Roman points out. “Just bees.”

“An unholy amount of bees,” Janus mutters, shifting back into the shadows. He never seems to like Hades’s house. Not that any of them do, but – well.

“Fine,” says Hades, and stubs out her cigarette, crushing it under the heel of one shining chitinous hand. “Now, follow me, and don’t you go and say I didn’t warn you.”

You’d think that the layout of Missus Hades’s house would be simple, looking at it from the outside. But two hallways down and two stairways up and three right turns (and not necessarily in that order, either) and none of them could even begin to recall how to get to where they’re going.

It’s in the middle of a hallway like any other, in fact. Just another room in a house far too vast for one person to live in alone. Looks like she and her wife haven’t quite fixed things up properly, not this time around, but oh well. There’s always time and there’s always next time.

The door is locked and the door is solid metal. Not a lot of metal down here, come to think of it, not in the buildings. It’s just for the garden gates and the deadbolts, and anything made to keep people out.

Hades fishes for keys in the deep thick pockets of her long skirts. Thomas watches, and so do everyone else. They’re all here, which is nice – it doesn’t happen all the time, but it’s better when they’re all together.

“All right,” says Hades, and the door unlocks with a click. She pushes it open, flicks on the lights, and steps back.

It’s clean; almost obsessively tidy. The knives are sharp and shiny, the equipment not new but definitely well-maintained. The butcher knows what she’s doing. It would almost be pristine if it weren’t for the bloodied countertop and the source of the meat, which is –

Thomas takes an instinctive step back.

There is a pile of him on the ground, in various states of decay and dismemberment.

He recognizes the shirts, even. Lots of flowers. He’s always liked the flower shirts. His gaze travels sideways, to the countertop where a new steak is being prepared.

Oh. All right.

Okay.

“I really don’t know what I expected,” Thomas says.

Hades shrugs; the shifting of a mountain. Her face is impassive, although she seems to be watching him closely. “Neither do I, if I’m completely honest.”

Virgil says, “I’m going to go throw up now,” and does. He at least goes to do it outside, which is kind of him. The smells’ awful enough in here as it is.  

“I’ve heard of eating your heart out, but...” Patton trails off, and winces, going pale. “...Nevermind. I’m going to go join Virgil.”

“Well, hey,” says Remus. “It kind of makes sense. You are what you eat, you know?”

“Remus,” says Logan flatly. “Please shut up.”

“You don’t like me much, do you?” Thomas asks.

Hades tilts her head; her version of a startled blink. She sounds genuinely confused when she asks, “What makes you say that?”

“You are repeatedly carving up Thomas’s lifeless remains to serve to variations on his personality as a last meal,” Logan summarizes, rather succinctly – his steady voice a neat counterpoint to the whiteness of his knuckles and the faint trembling of his lips. “Are you telling me that is how you treat people you hold any sort of affection for?”

“You were hungry,” comes the reply. “I never forced you to eat, only served you the meal. Why for the love of all things above and below would that mean I hold any sort of animosity towards you? I don’t not like you, Thomas Sanders. And trust me, if I disliked you, you’d know about it.”

Logan stares at her for a long, long moment, and then turns on his heel and walks out of the room as fast as he can.

After a moment, Roman follows, not even saying a word.

Janus takes Thomas’s arm, and steers him out of the butchery. “Next time, let’s pick something other than the steak to fixate on, hm?” he says, voice entirely too calm.

“Hm, I’ll drink to that,” Thomas agrees, letting himself be steered. “And drink. And drink. And keep on drinking. Hey, let’s go to Seph’s right now; I feel like developing a major alcohol dependency for the sake of my own mental health. Who’s with me?”

They pretty much all are, not that it matters. This time around is going to be over soon enough, just like the others, and it really is completely up to chance whether any of them will remember this, or will remember it in time, or will even care.

Hades, alone in the butcher’s room, picks up a clean knife. She weighs it from side to side, thoughtful. She doesn’t exactly understand all the fuss – meat is meat, after all, no matter where it comes from. She doesn’t regret sharing the information, only that her wife may be upset by the fallout.

She’s wearing her nice clothes, and she never likes staining the gold and white – it’s absolute hell to get out, and she of all people knows that’s not an exaggeration – so she replaces the knife and casts one last glance around the room before turning and stepping out with the shift shift shift of moving fabric and the gentle clik-clak of boots on marble floor.

The light clicks off.

The smell of meat lingers.

*

[thatfanficstuff]

The Light in my Darkness - 1

Pairing: None yet

Warnings: um...no

A/N: We’re setting up the story, folks so no interaction yet. Hope you like it and it lives up to expectations. :)

****

You hurried into the Red Eye Café, slipping off your jacket as you came through the door. “Sorry, I’m late.”

Curtis was in his usual spot behind the counter, looking more linebacker than diner owner. He looked up at your announcement before waving you off as if it wasn’t important. And to him it wasn’t. He and his wife Maria had opened the little diner when they were in their mid-20s. Now, they were in their fifties and had three grown boys and twice the space.

They treated you like family and that meant they weren’t overly put out if you were a couple of minutes, or even a couple of hours, late. You cared more than they did, truth be told. Curtis finished topping off someone’s coffee and glanced at you as he put the pot back. “Everything all right?”

You nodded as you tied on an apron. “The mailman came right as I was leaving. I stayed until he finished.” You held up the large envelope clutched tightly in your hand. “They’re here. All of them.”

“Maria, she got the letters,” Curtis called through the window to his wife. You saw her wipe her hands off on a towel before she came out of the kitchen. 

“Well, let’s see what you got, baby. Don’t keep us in suspense,” she ordered as she came to stand beside her husband. You grinned as you dumped out the envelope of mail from your father’s house. His butler collected it all week and then would send it on.

You pulled out the four envelopes you’d been waiting on and laid them on the counter in front of you. When you announced at the end of your previous semester that you were dropping out of business school to pursue a degree in art, your father had cut you off completely. Well, he would in less than two weeks when the new semester started and you weren’t enrolled in your business classes. These were the letters that would tell you how much financial aide you would be receiving to help with school.

The letter from the art school was first. They had their own scholarships and grant programs and you’d applied for everything you were eligible for. You unfolded the paper and ran your eyes over the text.

“We think you for your interest. Your status is below. Blah, blah, blah.” Your voice trailed off and your brow furrowed as you took in the list. Denied. Denied. Not awarded. Not qualified. What the hell?

You ignored Curtis and Maria as they asked what the letter said and dropped the paper onto the counter. You grabbed the envelope for a state grant and skimmed that letter to find more of the same. As you feared, the two federal grants were no better. You licked your lips as moisture pooled in your eyes. You dropped your head into your hands.  

“Not even a dime,” you said, knowing your bosses were waiting for the verdict.

“What? That doesn’t make any sense.” Curtis snatched one of the letters off the counter to read it for himself.

You lifted your head. “I don’t qualify for any sort of aide because my father makes too much money.”

“But he’s not helping you pay for anything,” Maria argued.

“They don’t care. He’s capable of it, so they won’t help me.” Tears overflowed and ran down your cheeks.

“Don’t cry, sweetheart. There’s still student loans.” His voice took on the soft tone he got when either you or Maria were upset.

You shook your head. “Not without him cosigning. And what’s the point of an art degree if I have to pay back thousands of dollars of debt when I graduate. I’ll be paying off loans until I’m eighty. Shit.” You shoved the papers across the counter. “Throw those away. I can’t stand to look at them anymore.”

“Maybe you should try talking to your dad again. Maybe he’ll see that you’re serious about art school and help you out. He could loan you the money at a lower interest rate.” Maria looked so hopeful you almost felt bad for snorting in disbelief.

“I wouldn’t bet on it. He’d probably charge me double.” It wasn’t that your father disliked you or anything, but he was used to people doing as he said, you included. And he wasn’t beyond doing whatever he had to enforce that compliance. The disappointed look on Maria’s face had you backtracking a little. “I’ll call him as soon as my shift is over.”

She clicked her tongue against the roof of her mouth. “Nonsense. This is more important. You call him now.”

There was no point arguing with her. Maria always got her way. You gave her a nod and pulled out your phone before heading through the kitchen and out the back door. You leaned against the building and called your father.

“Rumlow.”

He always answered the phone like that. As if he were too busy for any sort of formalities or niceties. It bothered you maybe more than it should have, but you had been raised by your mother for the first ten years of your life. A more courteous, kind person had never existed. You were the product of a youthful indiscretion as your father put it. Though his parentage had been confirmed by a DNA test, you looked nothing like him. All your features came from your mother to the point you could have been mistaken for her clone. You even carried her last name.

In rare moments, your father would really look at you and tell you how much you reminded him of her. The thread of regret in his voice always made you wonder if that was a good or bad thing. You shook your head, knowing you were only putting off the inevitable. “Hello, Dad.”

There was a brief pause “Y/N. This is a surprise. What can I do for you?”

“I want to borrow some money.” You forced the words out.

“Borrow?”

You sucked in a breath to steel your nerves. “Apparently the school doesn’t care that you are refusing to pay. I don’t qualify for any of the financial aid I’ve applied for because you make too much money. The only option left is student loans.” You braced yourself, prepared to listen to his insane requirements for lending you the money.

“No.”

His outright refusal took you a minute to recover from. “Just like that?”

“Just like that, Y/N.” He sighed when you didn’t say anything. “Listen, I know you don’t see it, but this is for your own good. You’ll thank me in the long run.”

You hummed low in your throat. “You think so?”

“I know so. With a business degree, all sorts of doors are open for you. Hell, you could work for me when you graduate. Take over the company someday.”

You bit your tongue to keep from telling him that would be the last thing you’d be doing. His company was involved in too many things that didn’t set right with you. Nothing illegal, but some of it was damn sure immoral. “Business doesn’t interest me, dad. I gave it a shot like you asked, and it wasn’t me. You know that.”

“What I know is that is a choice you are making and a damned stupid one. I don’t have to agree with it and I sure as hell don’t have to support it.” He was near shouting by the end.

“Okay. I get it.” You hated fighting with him.

“No. I don’t think you do. But you will. This was the last month I will be paying your rent so I suggest you make other arrangements. I doubt you can pay it on your own with what you make at that diner.” When he told you to get a job in high school, the diner was not what he had in mind. He’d offered you a job in his company mailroom and you’d decided to wait tables instead.

The line had gone silent. “Dad?”

No response.

The bastard had hung up on you.

A sob tore its way from your chest and you did your best to suck it back down. You hated that you got like this, but you couldn’t help it. Every time you fought with your dad, you cried. It was stupid, but unavoidable apparently.

You swiped the tears from your cheeks and focused on breathing. You needed to calm the hell down and get back to work. Not wanting to get sucked into a lengthy conversation, you tapped out a text to your best friend Wanda.

You had met her and her twin Peter the first week of your freshman year. You all attended the same private high school. Wanda was a fellow artistic soul and the two of you quickly became inseparable. Peter was a track star who inexplicably liked hanging out with the two art nerds. When he died in a car accident your Junior year, Wanda almost faded away with him. Slowly she healed and things were as normal as they could be with part of your trio lost for good.

The two of you were supposed to look at apartments later this week so you could live together just off campus. There was no way you could afford to do that now. You weren’t even going to be able to attend classes this semester. If you called, she would only argue with you, claiming she didn’t need you to pay any rent. And she didn’t. Her father was as well off, if not more so than your own. Unlike your own, he’d actually encouraged her to attend art school. But you couldn’t let her pay your way. You wouldn’t.

Text sent, you slipped the phone into your apron and swiped at your eyes again, hoping there were no remnants of your tears remaining. You stepped inside the door and were immediately wrapped in a tight hug by the petite Hispanic woman you worked for.

“I am so sorry, baby. I listened, I couldn’t help it. I was worried.”

You hugged her back. Honestly you didn’t mind that she had eavesdropped. It kept you from having to repeat everything. Joshua, their middle son glanced over from his spot by the grill and looked you over. You gave him a little wave.

“Someone make you cry? Do I need to have a word with someone?” His gruff tone had you grinning. All three of their sons treated you like a sister, including being a bit overprotective.

Maria clicked her tongue again and waved her son off. “It’s just that father of hers.”

He nodded and turned back to the food he was cooking. You phone buzzed in your pocket as it rang. You ignored it, knowing it was Wanda. You didn’t feel like crying again right now.

“We have a spare room. And you know you can have all the hours you want. Study between customers. Just like Jericho.” Jericho was their youngest son who was in the middle of getting his law degree.

“Don’t do it, Y/N. It sounds nice but don’t be fooled,” Joshua called over his shoulder, a teasing lilt to his voice.

“Oh, stop it you,” his mother chastised before turning back to you. “And you get to work. This will all work out. You’ll see. Just have a little faith.”

[skz-bangchan]

Movie Night // Bang Chan

Words: 1738 Warnings: some light tension because they’re watching a horror movie, but nothing too bad i think

*

The living room was plunged in the dark, the only light source coming from the TV, which was very bad for our eyes but Chan insisted we turn off all lights to better be immersed in the movie.

I didn’t want to be immersed in the movie, though. I didn’t even want to watch it.

But I had lost at rock-paper-scissor and had no say in the choice of movie. Obviously, Chan would choose a horror movie, knowing full well that I hated them. And obviously he wouldn’t choose a stupid one full of gore and guts, the cheesy kind. No, he had to choose one with ghosts and possession. The ones who creeped me out the most because I actually believed in spirits.

Also, when I was a child someone told me that “If you think too much about ghosts haunting you, they will come haunt you” and it has stuck with me ever since. That’s why I don’t watch horror movies, because I know I’ll think and be scared about it for at least the next week and I don’t want to attract any evil ghost.

Of course, Chan had made fun of me for believing in that, ignored my supplications, and put on the movie.

So, there we were, watching this traumatizing movie in the dark, each with a bowl of popcorn, comfortably sitting on the couch. Well, Chan seemed comfortable at least, body pressed against mine, head resting on my shoulder, eating popcorns rhythmically (like he was a goddamn metronome or something), seemingly without a care in the world.

I, on the other hand, was tense and my heart was beating strongly against my chest. I tried eating my popcorn (we each had our own bowl because Chan is an absolute ogre when it comes to food) but the scene we were watching was making me too scared. The protagonist was walking towards the door of the cave with only a flashlight. I knew this was about to be the moment some random shit was gonna pop on their face, scaring everyone, so I was half hiding my eyes, barely seeing the screen through my fingers.

“You’re gonna miss half the movie,” Chan commented on my technique of protection from the jump scare that was bound to happen any moment now.

“I don’t care, I don’t want to send my popcorn flying in the room,” I replied.

He chuckled but brought his attention back to the movie. The protagonist was slowly reaching the door handle, the only sound being their heavy and slightly shaky breathing. They grabbed the doorknob and closed their eyes, trying to master all their courage. I was grimacing behind my hand, the suspense making me clench my teeth. The protagonist slowly opened the door, the knob squeaking as it turned.

The tension and the suspense were high. Next to me, even Chan had stopped chewing on his popcorn. He was playing courageous, but deep down I knew he was as scared as I was. I was prepared for some creepy ass ghost to jump out of the darkness of that cave, but nothing was coming out. The protagonist put a foot on the threshold, aiming the light of their flashlight down the stairs. There was nothing. With a shaky hand, they reached for the light switch. The lightbulb at the end of the stairs flickered, but lit up, showing nothing but whatever mundane thing you could find in a cave: bikes, tools, old furniture and lots of dust.

The protagonist let out a heavy sigh, obviously glad that nothing came screaming at them. They even giggled, all the tension escaping from their body. They switched off the lights and closed the door of the cave. Reassured than nothing had happened, I let down my hand to pick up some popcorn. Still laughing, the protagonist turned around.

And came face to face with the bloody deformed face of a demon, mouth wide open and pointy teeth showing menacingly.

Not expecting it, I let out a scream, the exact same the protagonist did, and jumped so violently that my popcorn went flying all around me, falling on the ground as well as on Chan, who’d been more surprised by my reaction than by the movie itself.

“Fuck!” I blurted as I doubled over myself, trying to calm the crazy beating of my heart that I could strongly feel against my temples, ignoring the running away scene of the movie.

Chan was literally howling next to me, doubling over himself too from laughing this hard. When my body calmed down a bit, I grabbed the pillow next to me and threw it in Chan’s face, trying to shut him up.

“I can’t- I can’t believe,” he tried saying between laughs. “I can’t believe you actually sent your popcorn flying!” Another loud laugh. “I’m dying!”

“Laugh all you want, I know you were shitting your pants as well!” I replied.

It didn’t stop him from laughing. A frustrated sigh escaped my lips as I kneeled down to clean up my mess. Chan joined me, still chuckling and shaking his head in disbelief. As the tension was getting out of my body, I surprised myself by laughing too. It was indeed ridiculous. Once we picked up all the popcorn from the floor, I put the bowl on top of the coffee table, not taking any chances of this happening again.

Chan sat back on the couch and surrounded my waist with his arms, pulling me to his lap. He then proceeded to bury his face in my neck, groaning and nibbling on the sensitive skin. I laughed, his mouth tickling me, and tried to get away from him, but his strong arms wouldn’t let me move. I dived my fingers in his fluffy blond hair, grabbing a handful of it, and pulled on it gently but strongly enough for him to stop torturing me. He brought his face to mine, kissing me soundly on the lips and pulled away just enough for me to see his wide smile, showing off his cute dimples. I chuckled and brushed away the strands of hair that were half-hiding his beautiful face.

The movie was still playing in the background, forgotten. I personally didn’t care, I didn’t want to watch it in the first place, but I knew that Chan wanted to. I kissed him softly. “Don’t you want to watch the movie?” I asked, almost in a whisper.

“I do, but just give me a few more kisses,” he replied, and I was happy to oblige.

When we finally settled back to watch the movie, the person we thought was the protagonist was dead (how don’t ask me, I was too busy playing with Chan’s tongue) and a new happy family coming straight out of a 1950’s ad was moving into the cursed house.

“I don’t care if the whole family dies,” Chan commented. “But if anything happens to the dog, I’m suing.”

                                                            oOo

Two hours later, I was brushing my teeth, trying hard not to think about that stupid movie. I was still covered in goosebumps and every shadow I saw made me want to run far away from this house. Chan was applying night cream, humming a song while doing so.

“At least the dog survived,” he suddenly said to me.

I raised an eyebrow and spit out the excess of foam in my mouth. “He turned into a demon.”

Chan shrugged. “But he’s alive,” he pointed out.

I rolled my eyes and smiled. No one could see positivity in everything like Chan did. “If you say so.”

I finished brushing my teeth and cleaned my face thoroughly. I was still on edge because of the movie, but everything was going fine. It was going so well that obviously something had to happen to make me freak out. When I opened the medicine cabinet, something bright yellow fell off, surprising me so much that I let out a powerful, albeit short, scream that probably woke all our neighbours. I made a few steps backs and sat on the edge of the bathtub, heart pounding furiously, so much so that it felt like it would actually break out of my chest. I breathed in and out a few times to calm down.

Chan was staring at me, wide eyed, trying really hard to supress a laugh and failing miserably. I shook my head and let out a nervous giggle for the thousandth time tonight. The bright yellow thing that had fallen from the cabinet was Chan’s rubber duck. Why the hell was it in the medicine cabinet, I really didn’t understand. I rubbed my face and let out a groan.

Chan knelt down in front of me, a hand resting on one of my knees and the other holding the duck he had just grabbed. “He just wanted to say hello,” he said with a grin, making the toy squeak in my face. “Rubber duckie, you’re the one,” he sang, slightly moving left to right in rhythm.

I tried being serious, but I couldn’t stop myself from smiling. “Why am I dating you again?” I asked him.

“Because I’m cute, goofy and very handsome,” he replied, pointing with the rubber duck and making it squeak for good measure.

I chuckled but he was right. I framed his face with my hands and brought him in for a kiss. He reciprocated the gesture and I felt his hands go from my knees to my hips in a soft caress. He then pushed open my legs with his body, pressing his chest to mine, and surrounded my waist with his arms, before lifting me up with him. I circled his own waist with my legs and let him carry me away. He turned off the lights in the bathroom, but, thankfully, the ones in the bedroom were on.

Chan lifted the blankets with a hand (how the hell was he able to support my weight with just one arm I had no idea) and laid me down on the bed delicately before coming to take his place next to me. He covered us with the blanket and held me in his arms, leaving a kiss on my forehead and reassuringly brushing my hair. I snuggled up to his warm chest, letting the steady beating of his heart comfort me.

“Don’t worry, princess,” he whispered. “I’ll keep you safe.”

And I believed he would.

*

I hope you liked it and do tell me what you thought! And thanks to @vickyxmelonlove for reminding me of the rubber duckie song ahah, I hope I managed to incorporate it well enough for you!

[evangelineartemiasamos]

Red Queen Secret Santa 2018 for Rhia @redqueenfandom <3

A/N: A modern AU, a sequel to the ones I wrote before. I wanted to place this in Paris at first, but then I thought I should rather write about a place where I’ve been to – although my memories aren’t that perfect^^° I’m sorry for eventual inaccuracies.

A New Place

Growing Up

The Dinner

Roman Holiday

The Wedding

FInd this on Wattpad and on AO3

Roman Holiday

Mare POV

It’s eleven in the evening when I can call it a day on christmas eve. I put away my apron and slip into my coat and scarf and step outside of the café and onto the streets of Rome, bright with lights, filled with people, bells sounding over me.

Astounding that I hardly need the coat, despite the time and season. But this is a warm place, making it even more of a magnet for tourists coming to flee the winter or to experience christmas surrounded by supposedly more holiness than at home, wherever it is.

I’m not sure whether I should call myself one of them. I’m still a foreigner like them, frequently overwhelmed by Rome’s grandeur and age and visiting its endless sights. But then again, I make my living by serving tourists currently.

Four months into my gap year, I’m spending the winter in Italy, working as a help or assistant in various institutions, first in the cheaper countryside, now in the capital. I was tempted to see the festive spectacle, to be honest, that I’m putting up the higher costs of coming here. Fortunately, my room is affordable enough, but nothing I’d like to stay in for longer than a few days for that price. I knew what I was getting into, I guess, so I’m here to make an experience of it.

Truly, it is one. The ancientness of the city, the marks of history and art everywhere, often pull at my suspension of disbelief until I can take it for real. The more I stay, I’m starting to wonder if I’ll normalize the marvels one moment, no longer able to take it all in as much as it deserves. But I don’t intend to stay that long. I’m here to travel and see the world, and my next stations are waiting. Because for all its greatness, Rome’s also tiring, exhausting me.

There’s a price for a year of travelling, and that is hard, ever-shifting, and often boring work. It isn’t difficult to find jobs when you’re a native English and Spanish speaker in places full of tourists. Interpreters are good to have and I’ve a talent for languages, so my Italian improves by the day. The café I currently work at seems to have mostly foreign customers talking English, but to encounter the barriers of languages, from one foreigner to another, leaves a strange impression. Words get jumbled and guesses have to be made all the time and I try to smile away the stress. I hope that eases the work as well as raise my tips.

Although I’ve understood the processes of applying and have some reserves at hand by now, a consequence of the gap year is a constant worry of having nothing when I wake up next. It can eat at you no matter what, having to rely on yourself alone this much, but then again, it’s also the freedom I’ve craved. Whatever I do, I achieve it by myself. I can be proud of that. Doesn’t that mean I can manage everything?

Yet, it also means that often, I’m terribly alone. To be here, I’ve left behind my home, my friends, and my family. Now I’m meeting strangers every day, of whom each might become a new friend if I gave them the chance. It’s hard, the enduring newness of people and everything else. I can’t open myself up to them all the time, re-introduce myself and every part of me, can’t bring up the energy to translate all of their conversations in my head to take part in them. Thus, I frequently fall into myself and rest alone at the end of a long day full of work.

Tonight is such a time, or could be. It’s still christmas, but the loud and lively shift has destroyed pretty much of my festive mood. This is nothing like my little girl christmases and their inherent childhood magic. This is noise and exhaustion and unfamiliarity. It’s a feeling pulling me off the ground and I’m not willing to give in to it.

The streets around me roar as I scout for a quieter spot where I can sit down. Not easy to find here, as many are already taken, or dirty, or prohibited so traffic isn’t disturbed. But finally, I find a free building block close to the Pantheon. I get down on it and take a deep breath of the night air, letting my body relax as good as possible.

It’s not far from St. Peter where the greatest crowd will celebrate and if I weren’t so tired, I might go there to watch them, to get my own image of it. Shade would be offended to hear about this, as he’s always keen on calling out the catholic church and the pope especially. But I’d welcome his rant if I saw him in person again, like the rest of my family. I miss them so much, and curse once more my decision to stay abroad during christmas. The loneliness is cruel on this day, and the only thing I can do is getting my phone out and looking over their pictures and messages again. I do so every day and send replies back, but I delayed this today, hoped not thinking about them and being unaware about what I’m missing would make my shift more tolerable. That didn’t really work out. I just had a bad day that went to waste while everyone else around me is having fun.

So now I can be lonely while watching my family celebrating christmas. Tramy sells christmas trees and presents the fairy tale-like winter wonderland of the garden center he works at. Bree is with his girlfriend, both grinning and likely slightly inebriated, when Kilorn crashes their photos. Shade, despite his atheist statements, put outfits on his baby daughter Clara that make her look like an elf of Santa Claus and he stands arms in arm with Clara and Diana under a mistletoe that hangs over their door. In another, Diana, seriously studying an important-looking book, wears a silly blinking cap on her head, and in a second photo she hugs Clara besottedly as if in ignorance of a photo being taken.

Mom and Dad are similarly in love with their first grandchild and have tons of pictures with her, of Dad keeping her from crawling into the Christmas tree, or of Bree holding her up to pull on a pinata.

Gisa shines in these photos, too. Even on casual days, her outfits leave me so awed and envious of her style full of details and perfection achieved by her own ideas and efforts. One time, she’s wearing a black dress, a ball dress I almost think, and she looks so gorgeous in it that I don’t know whether to adore her or to be scared of her.

I sniff and swipe tears from my eyes. When I look back to the screen, my contacts are shown. My fingers must’ve slipped and I scroll back to find my family again, as I still have to send greetings and wishes. It’s christmas after all, and since it’s still afternoon over there, it must the perfect time for messages. Maybe even a call. Yes, I should make a call. Yet I stop searching when I see another name on the list.

Cal.

His profile photo seems to smile at me, and I feel myself smiling back at him automatically. At the boy I dated a few times back in the States. The silly, rich, hot and kind Cal who’d muttered something about christmas in Italy back then. How decadent, I thought. And now I’m actually here. I can’t resist the temptation and text “hey” to him.

“Merry christmas!” he texts back. “My parents wanted to visit the holy night in Rome and now we’re watching from our hotel balcony. Can you believe?” Added is a photo of the crowd on St. Peter.

I can’t help grinning like an utter fool.

“Guess what …” I write to him.

I drop hints for him about where to find me, not really expecting him to show up. Why should he, when he’s with his family on christmas eve? And yet, between messaging my family and joking with Kilorn about food, I glance over my appearance in more than one mirror or window to make sure I have nothing in my face.

I’m right at replying to Kilorn’s snarks when I almost bounce into someone. I’m fast enough to get out of reach, but make myself ready to rant back if necessary.

Light falls on his face, and I, silly me, recognize him as Cal, who’s really come to meet with me in the middle of the holy night.

“Merry christmas again, Mare,” he says.

I hesitate. I tuck my hair behind my ears nervously and chew on my lip as I look for words and my composure. But when I see his face, beaming with excitement, I laugh out loud and he laughs along with me. I go to him and in a blink, I stand before him and give him a hug. A friendly one, like I’d hug everyone, yet I don’t let go, and neither does he. I pull him closer, my hands pressing into his back as I step on my toes to kiss his – stubby – cheek and whisper “merry christmas,” into his ear.

He returns the kiss on the cheek.

And then he kisses me on the mouth.

It’s a surprise for both of us, but we don’t stop. Does it mean anything? Or is it just fun? He might be drunk although I’m not, only tired and in need of warmth and a familiar human body close to me.

We pull apart to draw breaths and don’t know what to do afterwards. We grin and laugh again. “We can ... walk a little?” he prompts and I agree and take his hand. With him at my side, I don’t feel so tired and lost. We’re two people enjoying christmas together in a beautiful city, and that changes everything.

“I can’t believe you’re actually here,” I say.

“Same here,” he replies. “Well, you said something about being in Italy during winter, and when my parents talked about travelling on Christmas, I put in an option or two …” He shrugs.

I elbow him softly. “Stalker,” I jest.

“Hey! It was still a surprise,” he objects and smirks. “And you called me.”

That’s true, but I’m unsure whether to tell him how needy I felt an hour before. It’s good as it is, should I dive deeper? We’re strolling through this ancient quarter, two people who might be in love during a lush night, like millions of other people must’ve done before. It doesn’t make me feel small, but incredibly connected and right where I belong tonight. Cal especially seems to fit in here perfectly. With his handsome face, the contrast of light skin and dark hair illuminated by the moonlight, he could be a mystical apparition rising from the ruins.

Oh god, I can never tell him that. He’d never shut up about it, and the idea is way to pagan for this night. Shade would be proud.

“What?” Cal nudges me and I shake my head a little too long just to win time. He frowns.

“You’re her with your family?” I ask eventually. “Aren’t you a little old for that?”

“I …” Bingo. “Ugh, right, that must sound ridiculous to you.” He’s completely flustered and it’s very endearing. “You’re here on your own,” he continues, “and I came here on a family trip like a big baby.”

I incline my head, the corner of my mouth twitching. He doesn’t offer me a chance to reply though.

“However, it does mean something to me.” His hand squeezes mine, possibly inadvertently, as his voice gains a serious edge. “My parents often went on trips with me, of course. But this is the first my half-brother is with us.”

I stand still.

“Mare?” Cal asks. I don’t react. “Mare, your mouth’s open till the Alps,” he says.

A shiver washes over me and I look up to him. His confused face likely mirrors mine. “Mare, didn’t I tell you about my brother? Who’s lived with his mother?”

I nod gravely.

“You see, as I’ve told you, we met at the same college. And somehow, we got along surprisingly well. I was so glad, you know? I think Maven is, too.”

“That’s great.” I smile faintly.

“Indeed, so after a few months, we decided to go on vacation together, as a family. And Maven loves Rome.”

I can easily imagine him, standing in a museum or on the capitol hill among paintings and statues and looking like a mischievous fallen angel himself. “Oh, absolutely,” I say aloud. Only that that deeply puzzles Cal, because he doesn’t know that I know Maven personally, that we were friends and a couple for years. I’ve only learned by accident that he’s Cal’s half-brother.

Now I have no idea how to tell Cal this so late. Seems like Maven didn’t tell him either. I wonder if he figured out who Cal is meeting tonight.

Cal still isn’t enlightened and I take both of his hands and know I have to confess. I look into his beautiful eyes, golden like fire, like light. “I’ve been friends with Maven for a long time,” I say. More than friends. “Until last year.”

If I leave it at this, I’ll never be able to finish. So I go on. “We were together for a while,” I say quietly, and speaking feels like lifting a ton. “As a couple.”

Cal gasps for words. I Iay a finger on his lips. “But that’s over. I’m just glad, really happy, that he is doing well and getting along with you.”

Relief washes over Cal and I’m sure he’ll have to digest this for some time. His hands wriggle in mine, loosen, and wander over my arms to my shoulders. He rubs them and I don’t want him to stop and he doesn’t, as he’s still at loss for words.

I stretch to give him a light kiss. He chuckles. “And I thought about asking you to come with me tonight …”

“Oh, how scandalous.” I tease back, hands on my hips.

“Yes, it’d be awkward for several reasons.”

I shake my head. “Not tonight, “I say with a sigh, a promise ringing in my voice.

He catches the note and smiles. His palms remain a caressing, welcome presence on my back, and I take the final step to embrace him. He pulls me even closer, bending down to my ear. “I’d say I’m looking forward for another time, Mare,” he mumbles, turning my name into a tender touch. “But whenever I let go of you and say ‘goodbye for now’, you vanish in a flash, fast as lightning.”

“I – ”

He kisses the top of my head. “I want to meet you again. I want to get to know you – for real.”

His eyes burn with intensity, his arms feel like a home. So under an infinite black sky, bells tolling around us in a city of legends, I whisper a time and place into his ear. “I’ll be there, I promise.” My hand rests on his cheek. “It’s my christmas present to you.”

@merrymareshmallow @clarafarleybarrow @inopinion @lilyharvord @elliemarchetti (gosh I just hope I did get Italy mostly right) @eurydicel @sarcasm-and-procrastination @marecalrandomstuff @calmareforever @choosemarecal

[mrneighbourlove]

Filling the Emptiness: Ch 3. In Each others Thoughts

Leere ran back home, the biggest smile on her face. She waved to Luimaya, the young princess walking back to her chambers getting ready for bed. “Hello dear!”

Luimaya smiled and waved back. She wondered why Leere was so chipper. “Hello auntie Leere. You have a good day?”

“I had the most excellent day. Go get lots of sleep. It’ll help for the day tomorrow!”

Rinku had only recently gotten back from her monster hunting trip. Seeing Leere though, her energy quickly returned. She was excited to hear how the date went. “Hey Sis! How’d it go?”

Leere fluffed the hair out of her eyes, her body slightly shaking from the excitement as she turned to Rinku. “Really, really well.”

Rinku paused. “You gonna see her again?”

Leere paused as well, and after a moment of suspense, slowly nodded her head. “Yeah.”

Rinku broke out into an excited scream, Leere joining her in giggles of wonder. “OH MY GOD! THAT’S AMAZING! I’M SO HAPPY FOR YOU!!!”

Leere laughed as Rinku spun her around. When her blonde sister got happy, she tried to express it with physical hugs.

“It went so well! She was patient and understanding with me. She also has the cutest accent ever!”

“Really? Tell me more!”

“She works for the Lon Lon Ranch. I think she’ll even inherent the whole business soon!”

“That’s cool! You got yourself an amazing catch!”

Covarog and Zelda came walking towards all the racket that was keeping them up. Their mother squinted her eyes at the two ladies. “What is all the commotion for?”

Rinku grinned to her brother and mother, giggling with excitement. “Leere’s got a giiiiiiirlfriend~”

Zelda held surprise on her face, her wrinkles squishing. “Really? Is that so?”

“Yes. Her name’s Sunny. She works at the Lon Lon Ranch and does so much work for the kingdom. She’s very passionate and has a kind soul.”

“Wait, is she Hylian?”

“Yes. Her family owns the Milk business. And we’re going to see one another again.”

Zelda took note of that. A tiny part of her always hoped Leere would come around to marrying a royal of Danjur, but the old Queen was still extremely proud of her daughter. She could see the passion Leere held as she talked about this Sunny woman.

Covarog ran up and gave his elder sister a deep hug, engulfing the tiny woman in his arms and chest. “I’m so happy for you! You finally found someone in your life!”

“C-Cov! You’re suffocating me!”

Taking Leere out of his chest she was red face as she caught her breath. Putting her down he patted her head. “Sorry about that. But seriously Leere, this is great! When are you bringing her over?”

That took Leere off guard. “W-what?”

Zelda nodded, agreeing with her son. “I’d very much like to meet her too.”

Rinku snapped her finger in agreement. “And Dad will want to see her too!”

Leere gulped. Ganondorf could have the potential to be a tad overbearing. “I-I’m sure she’ll love to come over when we have the time…”

“Oh come on, sis. Everyone would love to meet her! You aren’t embarrassed of us are you?”

Leere felt sweat drops as all three of them leaned in. The peer pressure made her squeak out a response. “N-no. Of course not.”

“So we can see her soon right! I want to met the woman who ensnared my sisters heart.”

Covarog grinned mischievously. “Careful Rinku. I think you might be ‘embarrassing’.”

Leere glared at her siblings. “You can see her soon. So stop being overbearing about it.”

“But what’s soon?!” Rinku was much older now, but she always held this free air about her, even now. When something was on her mind, it was hard for her to be patient about it.

“Soon-soon.”

The Zelda shook her head, pulling Rinku back by the scruff of her shirt. “We are all looking forward to it Rinku, but Leere needs sleep. In fact, we all do.”

Rinku sighed heavily and overdramatically. “But that will take forever. Surely you’re as excited as I am.”

“You beat I am.” Covarog rubbed his darker haired sister’s cheeks in teasing fun. “Our little Leere has grown up~”

“Covarog I swear to god, I will string up a body in your room. Somewhere.”

Covarog patted Leere’s back, chuckling in worry. “Oh come on, we’re all just having good fun.”

His sister waved her hand from her eyes to his. “Better watch out. I may be small, but I can still get you to scream any time.”

“Please don’t.”

“Both of you, enough.” Zelda shook her head. Even as full grown adults, they still acted to immature with each other. “Bed. Now.”

All three children nodded. Leere felt her smile return at going back to just thinking about Sunny. Rinku picked up on Leere’s energy and felt a deep happiness for her.

~

Sunny yawned as she awoke, stretching her limbs out. She had gained a good nights rest and her thoughts went to Leere as soon her brain started to wake up. She was going to be dating a princess. How insane a concept was that? Applying some fairy jell to her skin to keep it clear, she splashed some water to soak it in, and changed into her work clothes. Once she was prepared to conquer the morning, she opened her door to the rest of the ranch. It was a beautiful day out, and lots of work had to get done. She waved to a few of the other farmers letting the horses out of the stables to get some air.

Checking on the cucco’s first, she distributed enough bird seed for them all. The pigs received loathes of cabbages. Checking on the cows she found her brothers pumping out the milk.

“How’d your day go yesterday Sunny?”

“Really good Apollo. I had a date.”

Her second brother, Cosmo, shouted from behind his cow. “You did? With who? Some bar girl?”

Sunny giggled. “No. I had a date with Princess Leere.”

Both brothers exploded in shock. One of the cows mooed loudly as Apollo pulled too hard on an utter. “YOU HAD A DATE WITH WHO?!”

“SHE SAID IT WAS WITH THE PRINCESS!!!”

“WHAT’S SHE LIKE?!”

Sunny giggled more at their surprise. Checking the barrels and jars for milk were clean she continued her conversation with Apollo as Cosmo ran to get his other sisters. “It was really pleasant actually. She’s fiery, but also has a lot hurt in her heart. I don’t think she gets out often.”

“Isn’t she supposed to be really old? I saw her perform at the Brazier once, she looks really young instead. You think she has the same fairy products as you to keep her skin fresh?”

“Now Apollo. It’s rude to discuss a ladies age.”

“I’m just asking, geez. So how’d you meet?”

“At the milk bar actually.”

Cosmo burst in with his two sisters, Galexia and Luna. Galexia had finished stacking all the boxes to be shipped out to town, and Luna was cleaning returned milk bottles when their brother had ran in excitedly. Each one of them had gotten married by now, Galexia and Apollo even having kids of their own, but Sunny never managed to found anything that stuck. Between the job and her being gay, they wondered if she ever would.

Galexia stared in disbelief at Sunny from the news that Cosmo could barely get out. “You managed to date Princess Leere?”

“Yes. I did.”

“She’s gay?”

Luna, the youngest, nodded. “I saw her at a bar trying to hit on some of the waiters once.”

Sunny’s brothers and sisters gathered around. They wanted to know all the details. “Leere is a very interesting woman. She’s a real go getter.”

“So you said you both meet at the Milk Bar?”

“Y-yes. It was a fun night.”

Galaxia squinted her eyes as she read Sunny’s tone and expression. Her eyes exploded with emotion as she saw through her sister. “You slept with her?!”

The others reacted in a chain reaction as Sunny burned bright red.

“WHAT! NO WAY!”

“HOW COULD YOU JUST HAVE SEX WITH THE PRINCESS?!”

“OH MY GOD WHAT?!?!”

Sunny frowned as her younger siblings were losing their collective minds. “Yes. We had sex. Then afterwards, we planned for a date.”

Galaxia was utterly shocked that it could be that easy. “You sure it was really her?”

“Red eyes, dark hair, and pale skin. It was her Galaxia.”

Her sister took a moment to contemplate on this. “…Tell us more about her.”

“To be honest, a little weird, but I think there’s something special about her. Something good.”

Luna shrugged. “She can sing from what I’ve seen, but there’s something dark about her. Scary even.”

Sunny simply smiled. “I agree. But I also think people don’t look past her initial image to see something better. I don’t know how it will work out, but I have a good feeling.”

“You sure sis?”

“Yeah. I am.”

“You think you can balance dating a princess with everything else in life?

Sunny put her hands on her hips. “All of you are married, living happy lives. You didn’t have to continue working on the ranch, yet here you all are. We’re a family that can manage the biggest things thrown away. Our reach goes as far as the stars, and our passion for new desires burns as bright as the sun, and like the comets in the sky, our wishes can be seen right in front of us.”

The siblings went a little somber. That last sentence was a sentence their mother told them as children, a woman obsessed with space and the eternal beauty of the night. Sunny took a breath. “I think this is just another path open to me. Yes, I’ll be careful, but we’re all adults here. And just like I helped all of you with your love lives, I’ll ask if I need help myself.”

Apollo nodded, giving a light smile to his sister. “Ok Sunny. We can do that. Just wish I could something along the lines that if they hurt you, we’ll come after them. Hard to do when they’re a princess though.”

Sunny chuckled at her brother’s protection. “Duly noted Apollo. Now then, all of us should get back to work. We’re the Ingo Family! The hardest working family in Hyrule!”

Sunny was a born leader out of the five of them. After their mom died, she always did her best to guide her siblings down safe and happy paths. She placed her hand in the middle, her brothers and sisters nodding and putting their hands in with her. Throwing them up they cheered together. “TEAM LON LON RANCH!”

The five of them got to work. Sunny went to the horses, making sure they were fed and to give one of the workers a break. Wearing her sunflower hat she patted a red stallion’s side, who had apparently been spooked by something in the field. “♩ Easy, my child. Let your worries go. If you believe in me, I’ll make it so. ♩”

The horse calmed down to her lullaby, and followed Sunny back to the stables. As she was walking, one of the ranchers ran over to her. “Ms. Sunny! Mr. Ingo wants to talk with you!”

Sunny piped up, excitement filling her. “Ok! Take Pepper here back to the stable for me!”

The blonde woman ran to her father’s office, her braid flapping in the wind. Maybe this was her big chance!

Inside his office, Luigi Ingo ruffled her mustache as he observed the latest ratings. The Ranch and it’s outer branches had made a 2.3% increase in the last month. If only he could find that level of increase in his balding head. He smiled as Sunny came in. “Ah, Sunny! Working hard?”

“Of course Father!”

“Good. I want you to sit down dear.”

Sunny nodded and pulled up a chair. Her father took a deep breath as he took out a pen and paper. “Sunny. Don’t think I haven’t seen the effort you put into the ranch. You ability to keep up with deadlines is impressive, but I’m more impressed by your ability to keep moral up.”

Sunny kept calm, hopeful on where he was going with this. “I simply try to have everyone do their best, myself included.”

“That’s what I love about you Sunny. You have my sharp determination and heart, but you got your mother’s soul.” Scratching his head, he chuckled to himself. “Gosh. You look more and more like her everyday you know.”

“I know father.” Sunny gave him a kiss on his cheek.

“Now, with that said, there’s a business proposition I need to discuss with you.” He paused as Sunny braced herself. “I’m going away to observe the other branches. Lon Lon Milk has found success at the border of Danjur, as well as multiple ranches in Hyrule. Overseas, we’ve opened a branch in Termina.”

Sunny was taken aback by that. “Termina! You’re going to Termina?!”

“Yes. As the observer, I won’t be able to perform my duties as C.E.O. Which means I need someone far younger, outgoing, and intelligent to lead in my place.”

Sunny’s mouth hung open. It was really happening. “You mean me?”

“Yes. I do.” Her father smiled proudly at his little girl. Sunny would do just fine. “Do you accept?”

The woman nodded her head, tears welling up in her eyes. “Yes. Yes I do!”

“Good. Very good.” He held out two documents, his face more neutral than Sunny expected.

“What are these for?”

“Well, there’s a new policy. Our shareholders have a say in who is elected in as C.E.O. They can’t change the candidate at will, or take anyone out, but you need at least half of them in your favour to take the position.”

A board? Sunny never really looked into the political aspect of the job, always focused on taking care of the animals, the product, and the workers first and foremost. “Who are our shareholders?”

“The Hylian Royal Council. I’m a little worried given your… taste in lovers, that they might be prejudice against you.”

Sunny clasped her hands together and held them to her mouth. Her mind calculated on how she could reach the votes she needed. “That does complicate things, but I think I might have an answer to that.”

https://mrneighbourlove.tumblr.com/post/180427678001/filling-the-emptiness-ch-2-sunny-days-ahead Previous Ch.

https://mrneighbourlove.tumblr.com/post/183811908896/filling-the-emptiness-ch-4-in-love Next Ch.

[akamaru01]

Ya know what I didn’t want to really get into the shit show that is the discussion on the Sonic movie but here we are

I’m gonna try and make this like an analysis, what it looks like happened in chronological order, and what the hell is going on and maybe a bit on how people are reacting

For a bit more info on me I am currently a studying 3D artist because I will get a bit technical at times

I’ll also put it under a read more because not everyone wants to see it so HERE WE GO starting off with where I think shit went wrong in production (Spoiler: People high up on the food chain probably fucked up big time and interfered too much)

(Note: This will be mainly about the design, not about story)

So obviously as with everything it begins with the original designs made by a character designer. Now from what I have seen the studio actually doing all the CG work for the movie also worked on the cinematics for Sonic Unleashed that released back in 2008. Love or hate the game, you can’t deny that it looked and felt like Sonic. So clearly the studio itself knows what it’s doing.

However, the movie might be made with Sega helping (maybe) on the sideline but the production is controlled by Paramount. That means everything goes through Hollywood Big Wig Executives who probably don’t care about source material and also have no creative abilities and also don’t listen to anyone besides themselves and their investors. SO here is a very short, exaggerated idea of the conversations surrounding the design.

Exec: Hey we’re making a Sonic the Hedgehog movie so make us a Sonic that can fit in a live action movie.

Designer: Okay here you go he looks like regular Sonic but with some texture/material/fur touch ups to look more real

Exec: Too cartoony/Not real enough/Something something make it more like humanoid

Designer: But if we do that it wont look like Sonic, might be too creepy or weird, just looks weird/bad in general

Exec: I can have you fired

Designer: Here it is but people won’t like it

Exec: Yes they will, now get to work and make some posters people will love it (or not, it’s hard to say if they would really care as long as people see the movie and it makes money)

You get the idea. This probably continues all throughout production, maybe eventually they give up trying to change minds or they’re just too tired or it’s too late who knows.

So the posters come out and oh boy they were a thing that exists now

And so people do the thing and dunk on the look of it, get in their criticisms, which I think criticising or not liking something is well within peoples rights ya know?

At this point maybe the conversation comes back something like this

Artists: Yo we told you people wouldn’t like this let’s change it while we’re still relatively early in production (mabey) and can adjust it and not spend months with actual animating/lighting,post production

Execs: No no this is fine who cares it’s not even moving yet it’ll be fine

Artists: No it won’t

Execs: Jobs

Artists: Fuck, alright

So nothing changes, time passes, and here we are and by the way

Trailer editor: Hey for the background music I am thinking something upbeat and fun like the Sonic music from the games

Execs: No no make it edgy and cool like Gangsters Paradise

Editor: .... fucking why

So we got the Sonic trailer drop and guess what everyone dunked on like this isn’t even a shock at this point people analyze and criticise fucking everything (especially 3D) this time it just so happened to be on a massive fucking scale

So from a personal note my reaction was “This looks like shit I ain’t gonna bother with it”. From what I saw the general consensus’ were either basically what I said or “This looks like shit I’m gonna watch it anyway”. Absolutely no one I saw said “This needs to be fixed before the movie comes out” from what I saw people basically were just ready for it to flop and we’ll try again later. Even if some people were calling for a redesign I doubt even they expected what was coming next

So, this seems to be what ended up happening

Execs: -trailer release-

Internet: Yo this looks like shit wtf

Execs: Oh shit we fucked up

Internet: Yeah you did

Execs: Don’t worry we’ll fix this

Internet & Artists: What

Execs: We’ll overhaul and redesign him before the movie releases as scheduled

Everyone else: WHAT 

Because here is what that means. The artists and animators will have to redesign (or maybe go back to an old design), adjust the model or maybe worse completely redo it, change textures, possibly adjust or recreate the rig, REANIMATE ALMOST IF NOT EVERYTHING, adjust lighting, re combine the new CG footage with the live action, make sure it all looks good and no clipping

What’s most likely is that this is gonna be hell for the studio leading up to release if they don’t delay the movie, which they have not said anything about yet and that’s not a good sign. 

But now here is where the biggest variable comes in: How much will change?

Minor changes that don’t affect overall proportions and placement of details means they could keep the same rig and animations and just check for touch ups. HOWEVER these kind of minor changes probably won’t help much, if at all. Honestly besides textures and small changes to fur the only thing that can really be adjusted without much worry is the teeth because they can be the same size and they don’t have to deform or do a lot of crazy movement.

But in order to fix any of the actual problems with it, besides teeth, will require a crap ton more work. Any changes to the eye shapes, sizes or placement, and any changes to the mouth and surrounding areas will require a new or heavily adjusted face rig, which will completely throw off eye movements and lip syncs and those will need to be redone.

Any changes to proportions of any kind will require an adjustment of the rig, which could throw off the animations already set and need to rework them almost everywhere, and maybe redo them completely in a worst case scenario. If the hands change at all they have to adjust every single shot where he is holding or touching something, same with his feet, and really same with his head, quills, freaking everything.

All this in 6 months? Doable, but not without a fuck ton of unnecessary sacrifice.

But we don’t know what this redesign will look like, so it’s impossible to speculate on how much these artists and workers are going to be fucked over and pushed and destroyed for this.

Basically, odds are the artists are gonna be the ones paying for the mistake of those higher up on the food chain, and if the movie does well then, similar to what recently happened with game studio Bioware, they’re going to think “Oh it’s okay that it’s all shit for so long and then we push and destroy our artists at the last minute because it works” which it fucking doesn’t. If they had listened to their people at the beginning, this could have been avoided. No matter what some people still would have been like “ew 3D sonic live action” but no where near this degree.

So the final thing to touch on is some of the reactions after the announcement of redesign. Because I have seen... a lot. All across the spectrum.

I am going to try and talk about some of the more basic groups that these reactions fall under that I’ve seen.

Before we get into those though I want to say something that kind of applies to all of them: I think criticizing the design and look is okay. Talking about how you don’t like it and why and how it could be better is good, outside of ya know the extreme stuff like death threats or whatever, not that I’ve seen those really around this project but they probably exist.

So the first one is basically where I stand on the issue personally. The design sucked, they should have listened more and let it be more stylized and it still would have fit (because suspension of disbelief is a thing and what they have now certainly doesn’t fit in any more than regular Sonic would). I expected them to release it, it flops, no more Sonic movies for a while. If they were gonna fix it they should have done it a long time ago. I am not happy that they are going to punish their staff and artists for their own mistakes and now they’re trying to cover it up.

Now the next argument is one I have seen around here and there, and I understand it, but don’t completely agree. It’s the argument that we, as a collective group, complained about the design, and now we are at fault that the artists have to redo it. There is some truth that if the internet did not go “This sucks” then it would be over and it would have gone on to release as planned. Personally though, I feel like this takes away 2 things: 1) The right of consumers to dislike a thing and 2) The blame away from the executives who made the decisions not only about the initial design but also to change it so late in production. Should they not be held accountable as well? There is a piece that occasionally goes along with this along the lines of “You’re getting so wrapped in a kids movie” or something like that but like: This might (?) be a kids movie but really the target audience is largely the adults who grew up with Sonic. Also bad is bad and kids movies can be great they don’t have to be trash and also kids movies can be enjoyed by people of all ages.

There are smaller sections of discussion, usually quickly stamped out, about how “They fucked it up this is their fault” placing blame on the artists, but this usually comes from a place of ignorance and not knowing how the process works and who makes all the final decisions. The other side of that is “Whatever it’s gonna be shit no matter what I am/am not gonna watch it regardless” or “Idk looks fun I’ll watch it either way”.

To basically sum it up The people in charge probably fucked up, people rightly were like “Lol look at this shit” and now those same higher ups are gonna overwork the artists to fix their own mistake

[sunshineweb]

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets

Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.

We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.

Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.

Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.

It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.

In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.

As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”

He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.

Now, he writes this in his latest memo –

I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.

Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –

A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).

A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.

Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.

More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.

Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.

Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.

The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.

The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.

Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.

The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.

Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.

But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –

…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.

“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?

As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –

Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.

No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.

Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.

So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –

The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.

Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.

In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –

“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.

The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –

…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –

awareness of history,

belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,

skepticism regarding the free lunch, and

insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.

The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:

Are prospective returns adequate?

Are investors appropriately risk-averse?

Are they applying skepticism and discipline?

Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?

Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?

Are deal structures fair to investors?

Are investors declining any of the new deals?

Are there limits on faith in the future?

The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.

I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:

If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.

What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –

First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.

Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.

Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”

Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.

Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.

Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).

Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.

To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.

But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.

Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

You have my best wishes.

The post Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets appeared first on Safal Niveshak.

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets published first on https://mbploans.tumblr.com/

[heliosfinance]

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets

Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.

We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.

Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.

Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.

It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.

In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.

As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”

He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.

Now, he writes this in his latest memo –

I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.

Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –

A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).

A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.

Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.

More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.

Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.

Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.

The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.

The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.

Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.

The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.

Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.

But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –

…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.

“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?

As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –

Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.

No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.

Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.

So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –

The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.

Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.

In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –

“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.

The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –

…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –

awareness of history,

belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,

skepticism regarding the free lunch, and

insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.

The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:

Are prospective returns adequate?

Are investors appropriately risk-averse?

Are they applying skepticism and discipline?

Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?

Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?

Are deal structures fair to investors?

Are investors declining any of the new deals?

Are there limits on faith in the future?

The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.

I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:

If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.

What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –

First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.

Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.

Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”

Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.

Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.

Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).

Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.

To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.

But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.

Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

You have my best wishes.

The post Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets appeared first on Safal Niveshak.

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets published first on http://ift.tt/2ljLF4B

[heliosfinance]

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets

Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.

We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.

Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.

Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.

It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.

In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.

As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”

He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.

Now, he writes this in his latest memo –

I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.

Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –

A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).

A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.

Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.

More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.

Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.

Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.

The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.

The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.

Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.

The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.

Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.

But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –

…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.

“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?

As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –

Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.

No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.

Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.

So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –

The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.

Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.

In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –

“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.

The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –

…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –

awareness of history,

belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,

skepticism regarding the free lunch, and

insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.

The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:

Are prospective returns adequate?

Are investors appropriately risk-averse?

Are they applying skepticism and discipline?

Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?

Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?

Are deal structures fair to investors?

Are investors declining any of the new deals?

Are there limits on faith in the future?

The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.

I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:

If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.

What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –

First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.

Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.

Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”

Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.

Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.

Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).

Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.

To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.

But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.

Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

You have my best wishes.

The post Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets appeared first on Safal Niveshak.

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets published first on http://ift.tt/2ljLF4B

[heliosfinance]

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets

Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.

We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.

Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.

Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.

It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.

In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.

As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”

He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.

Now, he writes this in his latest memo –

I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.

Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –

A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).

A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.

Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.

More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.

Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.

Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.

The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.

The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.

Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.

The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.

Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.

But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –

…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.

“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?

As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –

Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.

No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.

Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.

So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –

The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.

Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.

In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –

“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.

The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –

…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –

awareness of history,

belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,

skepticism regarding the free lunch, and

insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.

The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:

Are prospective returns adequate?

Are investors appropriately risk-averse?

Are they applying skepticism and discipline?

Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?

Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?

Are deal structures fair to investors?

Are investors declining any of the new deals?

Are there limits on faith in the future?

The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.

I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:

If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.

What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –

First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.

Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.

Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”

Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.

Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.

Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).

Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.

To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.

But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.

Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

You have my best wishes.

The post Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets appeared first on Safal Niveshak.

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets published first on http://ift.tt/2ljLF4B

[sunshineweb]

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets

Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.

We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.

Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.

Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.

It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.

In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.

As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”

He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.

Now, he writes this in his latest memo –

I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.

Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –

A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).

A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.

Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.

More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.

Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.

Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.

The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.

The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.

Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.

The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.

Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.

But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –

…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.

“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?

As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –

Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.

No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.

Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.

So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –

The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.

Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.

In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –

“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.

The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –

…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –

awareness of history,

belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,

skepticism regarding the free lunch, and

insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.

The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:

Are prospective returns adequate?

Are investors appropriately risk-averse?

Are they applying skepticism and discipline?

Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?

Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?

Are deal structures fair to investors?

Are investors declining any of the new deals?

Are there limits on faith in the future?

The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.

I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:

If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.

What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –

First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.

Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.

Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”

Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.

Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.

Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).

Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.

To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.

But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.

Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

You have my best wishes.

The post Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets appeared first on Safal Niveshak.

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets published first on https://mbploans.tumblr.com/

[sunshineweb]

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets

Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.

We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.

Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.

Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.

It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.

In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.

As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”

He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.

Now, he writes this in his latest memo –

I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.

Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –

A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).

A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.

Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.

More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.

Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.

Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.

The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.

The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.

Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.

The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.

Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.

But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –

…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.

“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?

As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –

Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.

No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.

Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.

So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –

The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.

Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.

In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –

“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.

The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –

…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –

awareness of history,

belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,

skepticism regarding the free lunch, and

insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.

The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:

Are prospective returns adequate?

Are investors appropriately risk-averse?

Are they applying skepticism and discipline?

Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?

Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?

Are deal structures fair to investors?

Are investors declining any of the new deals?

Are there limits on faith in the future?

The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.

I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:

If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.

What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –

First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.

Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.

Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”

Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.

Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.

Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).

Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.

To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.

But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.

Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

You have my best wishes.

The post Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets appeared first on Safal Niveshak.

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets published first on https://mbploans.tumblr.com/

[heliosfinance]

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets

Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.

We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.

Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.

Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.

It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.

In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.

As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”

He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.

Now, he writes this in his latest memo –

I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.

Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –

A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).

A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.

Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.

More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.

Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.

Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.

The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.

The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.

Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.

The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.

Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.

But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –

…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.

“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?

As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –

Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.

No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.

Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.

So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –

The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.

Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.

In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –

“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.

The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –

…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –

awareness of history,

belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,

skepticism regarding the free lunch, and

insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.

The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:

Are prospective returns adequate?

Are investors appropriately risk-averse?

Are they applying skepticism and discipline?

Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?

Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?

Are deal structures fair to investors?

Are investors declining any of the new deals?

Are there limits on faith in the future?

The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.

I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:

If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.

What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –

First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.

Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.

Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”

Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.

Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.

Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).

Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.

To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.

But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.

Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

You have my best wishes.

The post Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets appeared first on Safal Niveshak.

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets published first on http://ift.tt/2ljLF4B

[sunshineweb]

Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets

Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.

We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.

Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.

Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.

It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.

In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.

As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”

He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.

Now, he writes this in his latest memo –

I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.

Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –

A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).

A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.

Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.

More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.

Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.

Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.

The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.

The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.

Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.

The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.

Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.

But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –

…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.

“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?

As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –

Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.

No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.

Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.

So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –

The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.

Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.

In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –

“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.

The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –

…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –

awareness of history,

belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,

skepticism regarding the free lunch, and

insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.

The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:

Are prospective returns adequate?

Are investors appropriately risk-averse?

Are they applying skepticism and discipline?

Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?

Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?

Are deal structures fair to investors?

Are investors declining any of the new deals?

Are there limits on faith in the future?

The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.

I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:

If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.

What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –

First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.

Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.

Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”

Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.

Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.

Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).

Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.

To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.

But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.

Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.

You have my best wishes.

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