#I understand that I'm weaker then the average person but also we live in a place with a lot of elderly and babies sooo

[loudestcloud]

False but shouldn't be

walkable cities also means sittable cities send tweet

[xtruss]

Interview with Mary Trump

"Donald Is a Fascist and the Republicans Are Trying To Destroy Our Democracy"

In an interview, Mary Trump, the only niece of the former American president, talks about an uncle she describes as dangerous, his enduring power and the growing hate in America.

— Interview Conducted By Marc Pitzke | 08.25.2021

— SPIEGEL International

Mary Trump: "He's literally the weakest person I've ever known." Foto: Sara Naomi Lewkowicz / DER SPIEGEL; Michael Reynolds / Zuma Press / action press

Mary Trump, Donald Trump's only niece, has just finished a talk show appearance by video chat from her kitchen. She's sitting in the library of her apartment building, trying to relax. The ceiling-high shelves behind her are filled with carefully curated coffee table books. Through the wall of windows, one can see Manhattan's thick traffic below.

Trump, however, seems irritated. "This was the first time I've been treated badly in an interview," she says.

She had just appeared on "The View," a popular morning chat show, where they discussed politics, the pandemic and racism. Yet one co-host checked out of the conversation without even greeting her: Meghan McCain, daughter of the late senator John McCain, who had been reviled and insulted by Donald Trump even as he went to his grave.

The younger McCain is famous – infamous – for her own conservative tirades. After the show with Mary Trump, she tweeted: "There is no 'good' Trump family member to me."

And there it is, Mary Trump's burden: her last name.

She will be forever linked to her uncle, his lies, is hubris, his incompetence, his autocratic tendencies – and the damaging fallout from his one term as president.

Last year, the psychologist published her memoirs: "Too Much and Never Enough." The book revealed the horrific family history of the Trumps – and made her a target of Trump fanatics, who still worship the former president. For months, she hardly left the house – because of COVID-19, but also out of fear of being recognized and vilified.

Now Trump, 56, has written a second book, "The Reckoning: America's Trauma and Finding a Way To Heal." It addresses the darkest period of U.S. history, with the nation's enduring racism, and, of course, her uncle.

DER SPIEGEL: Ms. Trump, last summer you called your uncle the world's most dangerous man. Now that he's out of office, do you still feel that way?

Trump: After the election, I was happy for about a minute. I was very relieved, of course, but the number of people who voted for him was just heartbreaking. Seventy-four million! Yes, Joe Biden won. But the Democrats in general didn't win enough. We needed a total repudiation of Donald and his party, and we didn't get one.

DER SPIEGEL: So, you think he still presents a danger?

Trump: We're not out of the woods. It became clear right after the election that he was going to do everything in his power to undermine the legitimacy of the results and that the Republicans were just going to let him do it. For him, losing is not acceptable and winning doesn't mean legitimately winning, it just means getting the win. He knows he didn't win, but I don't believe he knows he lost, either.

DER SPIEGEL: How so?

Trump: He's been trying for two years to steal this election. I don't believe he can wrap his head around the fact that everything he did, all the stops he pulled out, all the stops the Republican Party pulled out for him, haven't worked. So, he's still trying to steal this election.

DER SPIEGEL: Do you see Jan. 6, when a mob of his supporters stormed the Capitol Building, as such an attempt?

Trump: He is very good at finding people weaker than he is, which is shocking because he's literally the weakest person I've ever known. But they're out there obviously, in large numbers. Then, there are people who are much smarter and powerful than he is, who know how to use him. So, it's a very dangerous combination. Were there people around him who knew that it could very possibly lead to that moment? Absolutely. Was he completely willing and comfortable to take advantage of the situation and make it worse for his benefit? Absolutely.

DER SPIEGEL: Do you think he welcomed what he saw on Jan. 6?

Trump: Oh, my gosh, yeah. It was probably one of the best days of his life. The worse it got, the happier he was. It wasn't an accident when he told the mob that if he wasn't granted the victory, it was Mike Pence's fault. So, should we be surprised that people were running around with nooses wanting to string Mike Pence up? It would have been perfectly fine with him. Absolutely. The only thing he probably regrets about that is that there wasn't more violence.

DER SPIEGEL: What went through your mind that day?

Trump: I hadn't listened to his speech beforehand, because I've tried whenever possible not to listen to him or look at him, because I don't care what he has to say. At first, like everybody else, I found it really hard to know what precisely was going on. It just looked like a mess. The first word that came to mind was tawdry. But then it became obvious to me that it was much worse than that. This is our Capitol! This is the center of – well, I don't like to say American democracy, because I don't think America has ever completely been a democracy like we aspire to be.

DER SPIEGEL: Do you think he will run again in 2024?

Trump: I don't know. But because he's being enabled, he sees an opening. He feels the power. He also knows that the only way he stays out of legal trouble is to get back into power.

DER SPIEGEL: Does it weigh on you to be so personally connected to his world? In your new book you reveal that in 2017, a few months after your uncle's inauguration, you went into inpatient treatment for post traumatic stress disorder. What happened?

Trump: I just remember feeling so out of control. I remember spinning out and didn't know how to stop. I lived in a very Republican town then, so I was really isolated. For the first time in my life, I lost friends because of an election, and I knew I needed to do something. But despite the fact that I'm a psychologist, I didn't know there were treatment programs for that. I knew there were for addictions, but I didn't know there was such a thing for post-traumatic stress.

DER SPIEGEL: Your uncle traumatized half the nation.

Trump: Every once in a while, I think about how this country will be forever stained by what he did. That's really hard. We never recover from that. Maybe in 200 years, but not while I'm alive.

DER SPIEGEL: Don't you think his spell is broken? Joe Biden's policies are pretty popular, and Trump's "Big Lie" hasn't amounted to anything.

Trump: The Democrats don't understand the seriousness of the threat. They are playing by rules in a rulebook that the Republicans lit on fire. There are no rules anymore. They need to start fighting like their lives depend on it. But they're just not willing to do that. There is an unwillingness – also in the U.S. media – to use the kind of language that is accurate and necessary to get people to understand the seriousness of the threat.

DER SPIEGEL: How serious is it?

Trump: Donald is a fascist, and the Republicans are an autocratic, anti-democratic, counter-majoritarian party that would be perfectly happy to establish some kind of apartheid in this country. They are actively trying to destroy our democracy. If they win back the House in 2022, it would be fatal to the American experiment. I wouldn't be surprised if they make Donald, two years before the presidential election, speaker of the house. And then there will never be another Democrat allowed to win an election.

DER SPIEGEL: Do you really believe that?

"The Democrats don't understand the seriousness of the threat. They are playing by rules in a rulebook that the Republicans lit on fire. There are no rules anymore."

Trump: We see it happening already. Last year, there were 155 million presidential votes cast in this country. There have been maybe 36 cases of voter fraud, which is a vanishingly small number. And yet, we've got hundreds of voter suppression laws in place or being pushed by the Republicans. If the Democrats lose the House and/or the Senate in the 2022 midterms, it's over. It is over.

DER SPIEGEL: You don't think the U.S. democracy is resilient?

Trump: The way this country is structured is inherently anti-democratic.

DER SPIEGEL: What do you mean?

Trump: The U.S. Constitution is not a democratic document. For example, we currently have a 50-50 split in the Senate, but the 50 Republican senators represent 40 million less people than the 50 Democratic senators – because the constitution gives every state two senate seats, no matter how populous.

Trump supporters in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 6: "It was probably one of the best days of his life. The worse it got, the happier he was." Foto: Shay Horse / NurPhoto / Getty Images

DER SPIEGEL: In your new book, you write: "The ugly history of our country is filled with sordid, barbaric and inhuman acts committed by average citizens which were encouraged or at least condoned by the highest levels of government. To deny this history means to deny our national trauma." That's a devastating judgement – how did you come to that conclusion?

Trump: If there's one thing Americans are very good at, it's perpetuating myths about ourselves.

DER SPIEGEL: For instance?

Trump: One of the most astonishing things this country got away with was portraying itself as a beacon of democracy during World War II, while at the same time an entire population of people was being held in what was essentially a closed, fascist state in the South. Black Americans who served their country came home only to be lynched because they had the audacity to wear the uniform. Part of that is also that people think that the North were the good guys. But a large percentage of Northerners were really racist, too, and perfectly happy to have Blacks freed, but did not want them to have any political power, so they decided that it was more expedient to make common cause with the former Confederates than with the freed men and women.

DER SPIEGEL: Isn't the way of looking at U.S. history changing rapidly?

Trump: The right is doing everything to make sure that Americans continue to stay ignorant about their own history. Imagine if post-World War II Germany hadn't taken the steps that it has taken.

DER SPIEGEL: Not all Germans back then were too excited about that, either.

Trump: That's a good point. It requires the political will. We let people off the hook for flying the Confederate flag because they claim it's just about their Southern history. But they know what it means. It means that they are completely on board with white people owning black people.

DER SPIEGEL: Is the U.S. still a racist country?

Trump: If you're a white adult American, it's almost impossible not to be racist because of the media environment we grow up in, our families or our friends' families, the influences of our education. But when you become an adult, you need to take responsibility for that stuff. If we don't acknowledge it, then it's never going to change. But it's very hard to acknowledge that.

DER SPIEGEL: How much do you blame your uncle for that?

Trump: I blame him for the fact that it's becoming more and more acceptable to be openly racist. What Donald did was prove that racism is a successful platform when you run for office in this country. People like him are out there very openly being racist and white supremacist, and they're getting tens of millions of people to vote for them because either they agree with them or they don't have a problem with it because lower taxes are more important. We're in a really dangerous place.

"The Republicans are an autocratic, anti-democratic, counter-majoritarian party that would be perfectly happy to establish some kind of apartheid in this country."

DER SPIEGEL: Do you also blame him for the disastrous COVID-19 situation here last year?

Trump: That's been one of the worst things for me to deal with. Knowing that your uncle is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people is not a good feeling. That many died in exactly the same circumstances my father did, alone, because my uncle, who could have gone to the hospital to be with my dad, rather went to the movies. So, that's been really, really hard. Because of his incompetence and his cruelty we're still struggling with this. Because of his encouragement of the unvaccinated and his failure to model decent behavior, which he is incapable of doing. It's just a kick in the teeth.

DER SPIEGEL: Wasn't he one of the first to get vaccinated?

Trump: Secretly! Everybody in the family got vaccinated. They're all vaccinated. Imagine how people are going to react when they find out that they've all been betrayed and the people they put their faith in lied to them for political expediency.

DER SPIEGEL: Psychologically, how do you get people to admit they've lived a lie for so long?

Trump: It's hard. I don't hold out hope for most of these people. I really don't.

DER SPIEGEL: That sounds rather pessimistic.

Trump: I am bizarrely a quite optimistic person. Maybe that took a hit over the last couple of years. But I am pretty much an optimist. I haven't given up hope.

DER SPIEGEL: Yet the next Trump generation seems ready. Do you expect your cousin, Donald Jr., or your cousin Ivanka, to run for political office?

Trump: No.

DER SPIEGEL: Why not?

Trump: My uncle is such a buffoon, but he does have charisma. If you met him, for the first 10 seconds you would see it. After that, you would realize that he's a total psychopath, but a lot of people are very susceptible to his kind of charisma. Donald Jr. and Ivanka don't have any of that. They don't survive politically without him. They don't survive in business without him. No, I don't see that. Hopefully, they'll all end up in jail.

DER SPIEGEL: What's next for you?

Trump: My next book will not be about my uncle. I'm taking a break. Never write a book about trauma while you're still being actively traumatized.

DER SPIEGEL: Ms. Trump, we thank you for this interview.

— Mary Trump's latest book, "The Reckoning: Our Nation's Trauma and Finding a Way To Heal," was published in August by St. Martin's Press. The book has also been published in German translation by Heyne Verlag.

— Mary Trump, 56, holds a doctorate in psychology and has known the former president since childhood. Her father Fred Trump, Jr., Donald Trump's older brother, died in 1981. Her first book, "Too Much and Never Enough," about her uncle became a bestseller in the United States in 2020.

[skuds-blog]

2018 Investment Outlook For Stocks, Bonds, And Real Estate: The Last Easy Year

Before you read my investment outlook for 2018, you must first understand my financial situation and my biases. Our biases often warp our reality by anchoring us to past situations.

Permanently left work in 2012 at the age of 34

Net worth got crushed by ~35% in 2008-2009

Small business owner who will benefit from the new tax plan

New father with a spouse who is a full-time mom

Favorite asset class is real estate with three physical properties in CA, one in HI

Worked in equities for 13 years at a couple large investment banks

Have significant investment positions in stocks, bonds, and real estate

With this background information, I believe 2018 will be the last year of “easy money,” where assets remain relatively stable as they track historical returns. Let's discuss each asset class in a little more detail.

Stock Market Outlook: One Last Hurrah

According to the U.S. Small Business Administration, small businesses account for 48% of national employment. In number, they represent 99.7% of all businesses in the country. In other words, it is the guy with the plumbing store or the gal with the digital online marketing agency who make up a massive part of the American economy.

Based on my interactions with other small business owners, everyone I've talked to is extremely excited about lower taxes and potentially less red tape. It's really “less red tape” that most owners are looking forward to, and not so much the 20% deduction of qualified small business income.

As business owners, we hardly EVER feel the government is on our side because we've got to: 1) pay license fees, 2) pay special small business taxes, 3) pay both sides of the FICA tax, 4) pay an accountant to figure out our more complicated taxes, 5) wonder why we can't collect unemployment after our business goes under, and much more.

With the passage of the new tax plan, there is finally hope the government is now on our side. Having a tailwind feels so much nicer than facing a headwind while climbing a hill – which is often what running a business feels like. As a result, I believe there will be a natural inclination to reinvest in our respective businesses and ultimately grow revenue. Higher revenue growth equals higher profits and higher company valuations.

Publicly traded companies are just a larger reflection of privately owned small businesses. And I think the mood in the boardroom is as bullish as ever with a 21% permanent corporate tax rate.

When there is business euphoria, as there is now, valuations matter less. The chart below is the S&P 500 Case Shiller P/E ratio as of January 2018. Instead of investors now thinking 33.27X is too high, investors are now thinking there's another 10X multiple higher to go until we reach 2000 peak bubble levels.

Investors aren't really thinking we're going to get to 44X, but it's nice to know we still have this historical valuation buffer before everything blows up. After all, corporate cash balance sheets are massive compared to 2000, rates are accommodative, taxes are lower, and earnings are still growing.

Given we're now in the final stages of a blow off where it's liquidity, excitement, and FOMO driving the markets, I expect to see the S&P 500 breach 3,000 in 2018. If we get back to 2000 peak level valuations, we're talking ~3,600 on the S&P 500, which ain't going to happen. I expect downside risk of 10% for an even risk / reward ratio. I'm buying the dips.

Related: The Proper Asset Allocation of Stocks And Bonds By Age

Bond Outlook: Lower Interest Rates Forever

I've said this before, and I'll say it again: we are in a permanently low interest rate environment. The 10-year bond yield has been going down since the late 1980s due to information efficiency, globalization, and policy efficacy. I expect interest rates to remain accommodative for the rest of our investing lives.

For 2018, I'm looking for another sub-3% level for the 10-year bond yield, and more likely an average of 2.6%, despite a couple more Fed Funds rate hikes expected this year. In other words, I expect bonds of all types to at least provide a total return equal to their coupon return as principal values hold rock steady. 

With the Fed raising the short end, and longer term rates staying steady, the yield curve is flattening. Historically, a flat or inverted yield curve portents an imminent recession as higher rates on the short-end choke off credit growth, make existing credit more expensive and curb excess reserves, thereby slowing the economy.

But if the Fed is really going to cement itself as an inflation fighter, then this belief gives confidence for bond traders to invest in longer duration Treasuries at lower yields because no accelerated inflation is expected. Hence, I'm confident investing in 20-year municipal bonds that pay a 3.5% – 4% tax free yield for the low risk portion of my net worth.

We will know the end is near if the Fed raises the Fed funds by 1% and the long end remains flat. That's when inversion occurs and should have enough time to reduce our risk exposure by then. I expect downside risk of half the coupon bond yield. I'm buying muni bonds whenever the 10-year bond yield goes above 2.6%.

Related: The Case For Bonds

Real Estate: A Tale Of Two Cities

Remember how I said in June 2017 that the rental market was soft in San Francisco due to a large supply of new condominiums and nose-bleed level rents that far outpaced wage growth? From 2H2015 to May 2017, I��rented out my house for $8,800 – $9,000/month.  When I tried to get prospective new tenants to pay the same rent in May 2017, I got zero takers, despite aggressively marketing the house for 45 days. The best two offers I got were for $7,500 from a divorcee with an unstable startup and from a family of six with a dog. So, instead of going through the pain of continuing to be a landlord, I sold the house for a little over 30X annual gross rent.

The numbers are finally showing up in the data. Check out the rent prices for one bedroom and two bedrooms in December 2017 according to Zumper. If there was a three bedroom segment, I'm sure the numbers would look even weaker. Like stocks, real estate prices should trade on earnings fundamentals. With a decline in rent in so many of the most expensive cities and new negative tax laws in effect, real estate prices should remain weak in the most expensive markets.

Take a look at NYC housing market data from Douglas Elliman. Sales volume and prices headed down in 4Q2017 as buyers took a wait-and-see approach regarding the tax plan. Now that the tax plan has passed, it is worse than most people expected due to the $10,000 SALT cap and the $750,000 mortgage cap for interest deduction.

Real estate investors should view NYC and SF as “leading indicators” of what should be expected for other expensive real estate markets. Now that prices are softening, you should be in no rush to buy. Be picky about what's likely going to be the largest purchase of your life. Focus on location and expandability, the #1 way to increase your chances of making money in real estate. If you can build for $200/sqft and sell for $400/sqft, you win. And most of all, run the numbers to see if valuations make sense.

With the slowing of coastal city real estate, it's only a matter of time before non-coastal real estate slows as well. But figuring out the timing of when the slowdown will occur and by how much is the biggest conundrum. Three to five years tends to be a good lag, so we can make an educated guess that between 2019 – 2021 is when the data will appear. Let's just say 2H2020 to be more precise.

I don't think there will be more than a 5% – 10% correction in coastal city or non-coastal city markets over the next couple of years because the economic engine is still quite strong. Further lending standards have tightened since the last financial crisis. Therefore, if you're buying a home to live in for the long term, you should be fine.

Some folks have questioned the wisdom of my $810,000 investment in real estate crowdfunding outside of San Francisco. Understandable, given the absolute dollar amount sounds large. But I had a $2,740,000 position in a single SF property with a $815,000 mortgage where rents are declining. Therefore, I've reduced risk exposure while diversifying into 12 different non-SF properties where rents are stronger. Further, I keep my alternative investments to no more than 10% of my overall net worth and still have three California-based properties to manage.

Enjoying One Last Year Of Great Times

As a business owner, I haven't been this bullish since 2007, when I got promoted to Vice President at my banking job. Of course a year later, shit hit the fan and I saw a 35% destruction to my net worth in a matter of months. If a downturn happens again, I'm better prepared because I've got far more passive income streams, a variety of defensive investments, and a much lower debt to equity ratio.

If one can get a 10% return in stocks, a 4% return in bonds, and an un-levered 5% return in real estate without much volatility, I say that's pretty easy money. If I can get these types of returns, perhaps I'll finally be satisfied with a blended 2% – 3% guaranteed rate of return in retirement.

If you haven't done so already, run your investment portfolio through an investment analyzer to see what your latest exposure is to the market. Then carefully analyze your net worth composition and make sure you are comfortable with its construction. I wasn't entirely comfortable about my net worth composition in 2017, but now I am for 2018.

Sample Investment Analyzer by Personal Capital

Readers, what are your thoughts about the stock market, bond market, and real estate market? How are you positioned for 2018? Please also share your background and biases. As always, do your own research and invest based on your own risk tolerance.

https://www.financialsamurai.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Financial-Samurai-Investment-Outlook-2018.m4a

The post 2018 Investment Outlook For Stocks, Bonds, And Real Estate: The Last Easy Year appeared first on Financial Samurai.

[alexafaie-asd]

A note on the life expectancy bit. The data used takes infant mortality into account which is fine, but skews the average. Makes it sound like most people only lived until 35, but this is very much not the case.

If a person survived childhood then their actual true life expectancy was very similar today, with plenty of people - even impoverished people - living well into their 70s, 80s & beyond. Even during the Plagues there were plenty of people living to their 90s & surviving younger family members. That was actually one of the big issues with it actually - you lost the people able to work which then had an impact on everything. (See Lucy Worsley's TV series for more info on this, its quite fascinating).

The reason that number dropped to 25 with the Enclosure Acts is that they coincided with a long string of poor harvests so people were in famine situations far more frequently and the enclosure act terms made it even worse. When you're starving & you have lots of mouths to feed, its the young who die first. In part because the body can't sustain a healthy pregnancy on famine levels of food, so any babies born would be weaker to begin with & so more susceptible to illnesses. There were also a fair few epidemics of different diseases which takes more children out, because a starving body is an immunocompromised body.

So the "life expectancy" that includes infant mortality & childhood deaths drastically drops to 25. If they survived childhood they were still living into their 70s & beyond as actual life expectancy.

This distinction is important because what it tells us is that the future population shrank beyond what it could've been heading for because conditions were so hard babies just weren't making it.

Another interesting thing to note is that it also coincides with a shift in who helps birth the babies. Increasingly common were male doctors who came up with interesting ideas about how one should go into labour. The reason that people are commonly laid on their backs with their legs in stirrups is because the male doctors wanted to be able to study the process & that put things closer to head height. (Small note that there were also some powerful men who appeared to have a pregnancy fetish who helped drive this change, including one of the King Georges). Prior to this, midwives would be the ones helping delivery & babies were more commonly delivered in a squatting position (still used today in some cultures, also sometimes used during a difficult pregnancy). Without the standard of medical care we have today to make up for the shitty new birthing position, more babies likely died during the birthing process due to this too.

Important because not only were they working on enclosing land, but they were also doing similar even to the birthing process. Taking it away from the experienced midwives (who were majority women, or at the very least uterus havers) into the hands of an elite who doesn't actually have experience in that area (the elite weren't having to live the issues of the enclosure acts either).

You also get a shift in the wording of who is able to vote and you actually find women losing access to votes they had previously had, at least at a local level. And more shift around controlling women jn terms of work they're able to do, what they're allowed to inherit, and they become more property than they were before (I've read historical records of inheritance & it was normal for the widow to inherit her husband's money & even job in some cases, until it suddenly wasn't & it had to go to sons). And then the Victorians made everything waaaayyyy worse on top of all this foundation of bad.

Anyway, I'm getting kinda off topic a little, but I think its important to understand that the enclosure acts came with a ton of other social changes which also had an impact on the chances of a baby surviving childhood. And it has big implications for what happened when everyone was forced to the cities with the Industrial Revolution. Its partly why there was a population surge - because there had been a drop prior! (If we study humans like we do animals, some of it is a natural response to environmental/resource changes, its not all of it, but its some of it).

whats that one about the commons and the goose