#I hope Rizzo gets to manage the hangover lineup again

[zibanejad]

october ready

[brido]

Mike Bridenstine’s 2018 MLB Preview

This is one of my favorite times of the year. It’s Springtime. The birds are chirping. The baseball season is about to start and everyone’s hopes and dreams are still in their bright eyed and bushy tailed, pre-crushed wrappings. Or at least they should be. But that doesn’t seem to be the case this year. Nothing I’ve read (and I’ve looked) seems to have any other plausible scenarios besides the Yankees, Indians, Astros, Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers winning their respective divisions. The Red Sox are a lock for the first AL Wild Card. Mike Trout will be AL MVP. Corey Kluber will be AL Cy Young. Bryce Harper will be the NL MVP and Clayton Kershaw will be the NL Cy Young. And so forth and so on.

That shit is boring. And I fucking hate when people accuse baseball of being boring. 

So let’s spice things up with some bold predictions and what-if scenarios, without being too crazy (sorry to all 12 Marlins fans). At least one team per league usually surprises the stat nerds by the All-Star break. And then all of this will be rendered useless when the star pitcher and prima donna reliever head off to a contender at the trade deadline. Okay! Let’s get started. 

AL East.   

The team that was only one win away from the World Series just added the reigning NL MVP. I get it. They also have the best bullpen in baseball. Picking the Yankees is easy and makes sense. But now throw in the fact that they have a rookie manager. And nobody knows if Aaron Judge is really an 8 WAR player. Or if Luis Severino is gonna pull off another career year. And let’s not forget that they didn’t even win the division last year. So let’s look at who did...      

Just to reiterate, everyone thinks the Red Sox are going back to the playoffs this year. Just not as division champions. Mookie Betts is going to be an MVP candidate. And an actually much safer bet to be one than Aaron Judge. And that staff still has Chris Sale. They picked up JD Martinez too. Don’t get me wrong, they have a few issues I don’t like. But NOBODY picked them? That doesn’t seem right. Now, if you want to get truly crazy... 

The Blue Jays are a disaster waiting to happen, but in an all-best-case-scenario year, Josh Donaldson is an MVP candidate, Marcus Stroman is a Cy Young finalist and 84 wins gets them to that second Wild Card spot in October.  

I’m taking the Red Sox just to be a dick. 

AL Central. 

That rotation is sick. Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are the shit. And the Indians are still the heavy favorites in the Central, despite a few lineup downgrades. Which means we might have to scrutinize Michael Brantley for the 3rd or 4th year in a row. And I think it’s fun to just keep mentioning 1948. But at least they’re not as racist after this year? Cleveland’s story isn’t as fresh this year, so it might be more fun to look at...  

The Twins won the Wild Card last year with a good offense and pretty bad pitching. And Byron Buxton is still only 24. So what if the offense stays consistent-or-better, Jose Berrios becomes elite and Jake Odorizzi can add enough firepower to make an even better run in 2018? I’ve seen anywhere from 78-83 projected wins for them. Maybe everything went right last year, when they won 85. But the rest of the division (other than Cleveland) looks weak, so you might want to pencil them in for a Wild Card rematch with the Yankees.  

AL West.       

Is it more exciting to talk about Stanton-Judge-Sanchez than Altuve-Correa-Springer for any other reason than home runs? Because the Astros’ Big (or Little) 3 is better. I’d love to tell you that Justin Verlander is old. Or that Dallas Keuchel is overrated. Or that Gerrit Cole is done. But none of that is true (well, maybe it’s true about Keuchel) and the Astros will win 100 + games. Unless, you know, winning the World Series in 7 games gives everyone a massive hangover now and they’ll emerge at the All-Star break with a losing record. That’s a regular thing, right? No? Just my team? Okay. Let’s look at who could emerge as a Wild Card... 

Mike Trout is the best player on the planet. And the Angels had an under appreciated offseason (and I’m not talking about Shohei Ohtani). I don’t think anyone knows what to make of him yet. Right now, I like the Twins better as the second Wild Card than the Angels. Especially since the AL West is good enough that I’ve also seen respectable people choose the Rangers and Athletics as Wild Cards, even though they look like they’re rebuilding. But it is super fun to look at projections for James Paxton of the Mariners and name him as your sexy prediction for the Cy Young over boring-ass picks like Kluber and Sale. That being said, if you see any other picks besides Trout for AL MVP, those people are just being assholes.  

NL East. 

Yeah, yeah. It’s the Nationals. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. No Dusty Baker. The window is closing. Adam Eaton is back. Trea Turner might be underrated. No Dusty Baker. I just have a problem with all the Bryce Harper projections hype. He was Barry Bonds in 2015. And he’s never been near that any other time. I know he was battling some injuries. But couldn’t you make an argument that Anthony Rendon is the best player on this team? And yeah, I’ll change my tune when the Cubs give him $40 million a year starting in 2019. All I’m saying is that I’m not just gonna let you pick him for MVP in a contract year when he’s been a 4 WAR (and not a 9.5 WAR) over the last two seasons.

He’ll hit a home run on Opening Day though.   

There’s an argument to be made for a healthy Noah Syndergaard returning, which would make he and deGrom about as formidable as Scherzer and Strasburg in Washington. But the Mets won 70 games last year, so I might allow you to pick Thor for your NL Cy, but that’s about as far as I’ll let you go. 

NL Central. 

The Cubs sucked last year and still went to the NLCS. And it’s like, who on this team (besides Kris Bryant, who is the safest MVP bet in the league) isn’t poised to break out in 2018? Look at Anthony Rizzo’s projections. That’s MVP-type shit for the probably-fourth-best first baseman in the league. Ian Happ’s Spring, plus the potential for everyone else on this young team (Wilson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Javier Baez and to a certain extent, Jason Heyward), not to mention a bounce back for Kyle Hendricks, a full season from Jose Quintana and no tipped pitches from Yu Darvish and we can start to compare this team to the 2016 squad instead of last year’s historic first half flop. Who will compete? Okay...    

The Cardinals got Marcell Ozuna. Carlos Martinez is a legit ace. But they need a better bullpen. The Brewers got Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, so the offense looks pretty good on a team that won 86 games last year. They just need starting pitching. So with both teams projected at an 86-win ceiling, I like the upside of the Cardinals more. And I think they’ll take a Wild Card spot. 

NL West. 

Clayton Kershaw is still considered the best pitcher in baseball. They still have the best reliever in baseball in Kenley Jansen. A healthy Corey Seager is an MVP candidate. Maybe they played out of their ass last Summer. But we’re still looking at 93-97 wins. Probably. But they’ve got some healthy competition...   

The Diamondbacks and Rockies won 93 and 87 games last year, respectively. Zack Greinke is projecting like a Cy Young candidate again, but they have back-of-the-rotation and bullpen issues that coincide with losing JD Martinez. Not that Paul Goldschmidt and a full season from AJ Pollock is anything to scoff at. The Rockies’ offense might have wind-aided stats, but Nolan Arenado is always a legit MVP candidate. Plus Jon Gray and German Marquez might actually give them legit pitching. We’re looking at 81-85 wins for the D-Backs and only 79-82 for the Rockies, which feels low. I’ll take the D-Backs and Cardinals as my Wild Cards. Not that I think it’ll matter...   

World Series: Cubs over Astros. 

This is my fourth year in a row picking the Cubs. I’ll be 2-for-4. Dallas Keuchel will provide the bulletin board material. Yu Darvish will get his October redemption. And we won’t even need a rain delay speech from Jason Heyward. Cubs in 5. Trump resigns. I get my wife pregnant.