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suarkl-blog · 4 years ago

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cleancutpage · 6 years ago

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2019 Phoenix economic forecast and how it affects the future of commercial real estate

This post originally appeared on Ensemble Real Estate Solutions's Blog and is republished with permission. Find out how to syndicate your content with theBrokerList.

2019 Phoenix Economic Forecast

By Marina Hammersmith, CCIM, Senior VP, Healthcare Brokerage Services, Ensemble Real Estate Solutions

We are in the second longest economic expansion in US history and, according to Economist Elliott Pollack, expansion is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace in 2019.

At the Annual 2019 IREM/CCIM Forecast, held on January 24th, Elliott Pollack and a host of panelists gathered together to discuss the state of the economy here in Phoenix, including what is driving growth and if the trend will continue.

We are in the second longest period of recovery and Pollack indicates that we are in the 8th inning. As the period of recovery gets longer; however, there are susceptibilities that can trigger recession. While that term brings the potential for angst and discomfort, Pollack reminds us that not all recessions are created equal. The most recent recession of 2007 to 2009 was a “once-in-an-80-year experience” and is unlikely to occur again in our lifetimes. The credit crisis caused by the bursting housing bubble helped to create this significant market correction. However, most recession periods last eight to 11 months and are mild. The good news is that with no significant imbalance in need of correction, when it does happen, indicators point to a mild recession.

The primary concern with the economy is the labor shortage. Currently, there are seven million unfilled jobs throughout the US, nearly the highest in recorded history. With this shortage comes increased wages and pressure on inflation. The Federal Reserve will continue to watch this and make adjustments as necessary in order to stave off a recession.

What is on the horizon for Arizona?

Arizona is sixth in the nation for job growth with 87% of that growth focused on the Phoenix Metro Market. People vote with their feet: 7% of all people moving throughout the US choose Arizona for relocation, making Phoenix the second fastest growing city in the west behind Seattle. Strong economic drivers including tremendous infrastructure, clean and uninterrupted power supply, land availability and affordability and no natural disasters make Phoenix appealing. Pollack indicated that 67,000 jobs were added to the State in 2018 and that he expects 60,000 new jobs in 2019. The sectors with the highest job growth are Construction, Education and Health Services, Professional Business Services, Leisure and Hospitality, and Manufacturing. Construction and Manufacturing are currently the leading drivers of job growth, which bring with them the support service industries.

Industrial

For the industrial sector, look to big box growth in the southwest valley around Goodyear with large data centers. The south central valley around the airport and the southeast valley rely heavily on a strong employment sector and attract users ranging from 50,000 to 250,000 SF for manufacturing.

Industrial development has been restrained over the last three or four years, generally leading to controlled growth and low vacancy.

The completion of the new Loop 202 freeway will have a significant impact on both the southwest and southeast valley by creating better access for the skilled workforce to more easily traverse the two markets.

Office

The office sector is enjoying significant growth in supply and rates, particularly along the freeway arterials of the southeast valley. In 2013, office vacancy hovered at 25%; now, we are seeing overall vacancy at 12.5%. In addition to the 300 days of sunshine, average temperatures of 75 degrees and an average commute time of 26 minutes, local government incentives are also helping to attract national firms. This has led to a diversity of industries in the area. Phoenix has had a strong history of jobs in Construction and Leisure and Hospitality, but over the last few years, there has been an influx of white-collar industries including finance, insurance, defense, bioscience, biomedical, and engineering.

Affordability is a significant consideration for growth, both in terms of commercial rents as well as housing. The average home price in Phoenix is $263,000. In neighboring Los Angeles County, the average home price is $625,000 and in San Francisco, it is $1,600,000. Housing affordability and the impact on cost of living are significant drivers into the Phoenix market.

With the strength of the local economy, job growth and the influx of residents to the state, healthcare demands continue to increase, creating a need for additional providers and points of delivery. The current reimbursement model for hospitals and providers has afforded expansion opportunities. Mayo Clinic announced a $648 million dollar expansion with plans to double the size of their Phoenix campus by 2023. They will bring another 2,000 jobs into the economy. Several other hospitals are following suit with plans to expand to meet the needs of the increasing demographic.

However, as this sector is vulnerable to legislation that impacts reimbursement for service, there continues to be a drive to low-cost delivery with touch-points at every acuity from the patient’s home to the primary delivery hub: the hospital. This trend is not likely to change.

Retail

Contrary to consumer opinion, brick and mortar retail is still going strong. Retail is never static; trends and shopping habits change, yet successful owners are adept at navigating this every evolving climate. Necessity-based retail or “internet-resistant retail” such as nail salons, gyms, restaurants, and entertainment venues will continue to drive the need for brick and mortar. These are driven by an increasing population and cannot be replaced by e-commerce. “Experience” retail is becoming a more significant segment of the market.

In 2005, developers built 11 million square feet of retail and much of that space sat empty during the recession. Growth is showing restraint now, with less than one million SF per year delivered to the market each year. Developers no longer build on a speculative basis, but instead respond to user needs.

Retailers look at big box closures as an opportunity to backfill the spaces with office users or multifamily housing. Current vacancy is 8.5% for retail or nine million square feet. Of that, three million SF is being removed from the market because it is being backfilled by alternative uses.

Multifamily

Phoenix has strong fundamentals for robust job growth, specifically for jobs in financial services. The largest growing demographic is young people, 20 to 34 years old, who are lured by a steady job market and affordable housing. Phoenix is the least expensive market in the western US, excluding Las Vegas.

Demand is outpacing supply. Local household formation is expected to be between 47,000 to 48,000 each year through 2026, as projected by CBRE. With new single-family home deliveries of 22,000 units and multifamily at 8,000 units last year, the household demand is exceeding the annual supply, which is leading to a decline in vacancy and strong rent growth.

In years prior, infill locations around Central Phoenix and South Scottsdale have taken center stage; however, with the uptick of construction costs, it is getting more difficult to deliver those options at reasonable rates. There has been a shift to the outlier markets of Gilbert, Goodyear, and Avondale, where land prices are low enough to deliver affordable multifamily projects.

Conclusion

The theme of the Forecast can be summarized with the following highlights:

Phoenix is the economical “back-office” alternative to the west coast

Infrastructure and government incentives will continue to support growth

The diversity of the industries create a strong and synergistic economy

While a recession appears to be on the horizon, it is anticipated to be minor in terms of length and impact

Participants in the local real estate market have indicated that while we may be in the eighth inning, this is likely a double-header with plenty of play left in the game.

RSS Feed provided by theBrokerList Blog - Are you on theBrokerList for commercial real estate (cre)? and 2019 Phoenix economic forecast and how it affects the future of commercial real estate was written by Ensemble Real Estate Solutions.

2019 Phoenix economic forecast and how it affects the future of commercial real estate published first on https://greatlivinghomespage.tumblr.com/

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artingerdesigns · 7 years ago

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WHAM Community Arts Center in brings Artwork to all in West Valley

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Kelley Smith (right) takes a ceramics class from teacher Connie Whitlock (abandoned) in WHAM Community Arts Center on Sep. 19, 2017 at Surprise. (Photo: Rob Schumacher/The Republic)

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Connie Whitlock has an expression: “Everyone deserves to experience art.”

And, being this WHAM Community Arts Center’s director at Surprise, she has dedicated herself to making sure that everyone can.

When her husband and Whitlock retired to Sun City Grand in 1999, she did not understand just what to do with her free time. She was not the coffee klatch type, so she tried various jobs, but nothing felt right.

Then Whitlock saw a flier . Before she got busy with job and loved ones, she had studied art in school. Why don’t you try again?

On her first trip, she sat down in a potter’s wheel.

“And that was it!” Whitlock recalled.

She was at the studio five days a week. She sought classes she could find. She got several commissions, left some earnings and, finally.

From 2006, Whitlock was an expert artist. But even as she enjoyed her creativity, she wondered why there weren’t more opportunities for West Valley citizens to come more than art.

“I started thinking that there are a lot of people who would love to get access to art, but there was not any organized art centre here in the time.”

Drawing on her prior experience in company management, Whitlock chose to start her own club, which she envisioned to meet, mingle, and find out all ages, all levels all media.

A self-described “old hippie,” she named the club that the “What Is Happen’n Art Movement,” picking the name to indicate that the organization could constantly be changing.

By brainchild to construction

WHAM Community Arts Center is observed on Sep. 19, 2017 at Surprise. (Photo: Rob Schumacher/The Republic)

Shortly after she posted the initial palaces, Whitlock discovered she was rightfolks wanted art. The club grew with artists from a number of subjects coming together for classes and lectures. They arrived from Surprise, Peoria, Glendale, Litchfield Park and outside. They met in her residence. They met in other people’s houses. Once, for an major workshop, then they rented a hotel space.

Then things really started moving.

In 2012, Whitlock was commissioned to make an artwork for the Adelante Healthcare practice at Surprise.

Whitlock got the following thought since she worked.

What, she asked Adelante, were they planning to do with the vacant clinic around Dysart Road?

“They said they had leased it in the city before 2015. So I asked if I could use it,” she remembered. “And they said yes!”

And wham, similar to that, the volunteer-run organization had 8,500 square feet of space — all for art.

The conversion from neighborhood health practice to community arts centre was not even that complicated.

Except for eliminating a few walls at the area to create a gallery, most of the construction required little renovation. The 13 exam rooms had cupboards and cupboards, so that they were readily reimagined as studios for lease. Along with the rooms were ideal for classes and workshops– such as a ceramics studio that is dedicated.

An area of artists

Today, a sculpture garden and colorful indicators welcome people. Indoors, every inch of this building is dedicated to sharing making, teaching, practicing and learning art.

The WHAM West Gallery, that is absolutely free to visitors, hosts a new exhibit every month, which range to rentals toward artists that are fighting. Volunteer docents response inquiries, along with a provides a spot to contemplate the artwork.

But even past the gallery, halls are hung with prints, drawings and paintings. A small gift store offers ceramics and jewelry available. And the studios’ doors are adorned giving a glimpse in the work being created by the citizens indoors, most of whom are artists.

One of those artists runs a company called Painting 4 Entertaining. Gibson, who supplies instruction and supplies for casual art classes, used to lease space but moved from January 2015 to WHAM, brought by the lower rent and the ability to borrow the classroom for class lessons. However among the biggest advantages has been the inspiration.

Glazing colors during a ceramics class at WHAM Community Arts Center on Sep. 19, 2017 at Surprise. (Photo: Rob Schumacher/The Republic)

“Once I walked in to reserve my studio area, they had just set a brand new show up,” she remembered. “And I was just in awe of those functions in this gallery. I love being around other artists and seeing what they’re doing.”

Kelley Smith has had an identical experience. As an painter with a busy commission program, Smith already had a nice, big studio at home.

However, what she did not have was an artistic support team.

“Working at home all the time, I was feeling kind of isolated,” Smith admitted. “I needed people who may talk my language.”

Two years ago, those individuals were found by Smith at WHAM, in which she now teaches painting and drawing classes.

“The creative energy is wonderful,” she clarified. “I docent a couple of times a month and once I leave I only want to go straight home and paint, I am so inspired.”

Art anyplace

WHAM Community Arts Center is observed on Sep. 19, 2017 at Surprise. (Photo: Rob Schumacher/The Republic)

There might be much more energy in WHAM than four walls can contain.

Sharing Whitlock’s conviction that “art is for everyone,” WHAM’s applications consist of after-school classes and art camps for children, an art club for teens, and adult classes that vary by Sharpie drawings to pottery. To achieve community members, arts teachers have tailored art projects for adults and children with special needs, and others offer free classes.

Every April, WHAM hosts a recycled art festival, and in November, the ceramics artists team up together with all the Sun City Grand clay club to get the “Bowls of Hope” fundraiser to benefit West Valley food banks and shelters.

Even with those projects, there is still art that some spills in the streets.

A brand new “WHAM on Wheels” studio, built on a flatbed trailer, which enables volunteers to sponsor pop-up art classes at parks and public areas across the West Valley; and several cities have commissioned WHAM artists to create public art projects, such as a sculpture in the Goodyear Ballpark, murals in Bicentennial Park in Surprise and sidewalks for downtown Peoria.

A path to recovery

But one of the outreach programs, said Whitlock, will be Surprise’s team and the art workshops for first responders and military veterans — a cooperation with Arizona Arts Alliance. The sessions, held three times in places at Surprise and Peoria, let participants to simply relax and revel in the imaginative process, clarified coordinator Marty Wolfe.

At each workshop, from woodburning to mask-making projects that vary are explored by veterans. Some people take turns teaching, others do their thing, like the 94-year-old veteran who comes to sketch the other participants. There’s no anxiety and no treatment.

“They do not have to talk about anything,” Wolfe explained. “They simply do the art.”

But performing the art is sufficient, said.

After serving 16 years since a U.S. Army Ranger, Gilbert was struggling with chronic depression and post-traumatic stress disorder if a counselor persuaded him to attend his very first WHAM workshop.

“It was among those few times I had been out of this home for a little while,” Gilbert recalled, “and we did a small painting and I still do not understand why, but it was the very first time in a very long time I had a glimmer of hope.”

Together with Whitlock he returned the following month. And the second. The glimmer grew steadily.

WHAM Community Arts Center is observed on Sep. 19, 2017 at Surprise. . (Photo: Rob Schumacher/The Republic)

“You are here and it supplies such a secure environment,” Gilbert explained. “When you have PTSD, you get rid of everything, including your individuality. I got to where I did not even talk. However, once I arrived here, I started to realize that I have friends. It’s not just the art, it’s the procedure and the camaraderie.”

Gilbert has felt so much relief that he has used his new abilities to assist folks, like he brought a veteran who was in the midst of a panic attack painting supplies, and currently acts as a recruiter for this application.

“I told him to paint what he was feeling,” recalled Gilbert. “And he started telling me he did not understand anything about art, but I said: ‘Just paint.’ And in only a few minutes, he started calming down.”

The experience was an eye-opener, ” said Gilbert, proving that art can be an effective tool for recovery.

Whitlock was gratified, but not surprised.

“Art is curative for everyone,” she clarified, “if you’ve got an illness or simply require a small stress break. Everybody needs to develop their creativity. It is part of being human.”

Utilizing art for great

Together with improving his life, WHAM is additionally credited by Alberto Hernandez. When he was a junior at high school, the Surprise native did not feel like that he had an outlet. He started tagging walls and getting in trouble for drawing through math class.

When a friend invited him to join the teen art club in WHAM that changed.

“It was amazing how much Connie genuinely cared about us as young artists and wanted to let us show what we can do,” Hernandez said.

Whitlock assigned the teens to assist with a public art project from Surprise: a mural intended to greatly cut down on graffiti in a park bathroom. The team worked to wash out the walls, then scenes representing the past, current and future of this city that was developing.

“It was the first-time anyone showed me that I could use my art for good,” Hernandez said.

22 and a Realtor, Hernandez volunteers for WHAM whenever he could as artists.

How art Ought to Be

Connie Whitlock (left) instructs a ceramics class with students Lupe Meter (centre) and Kelley Smith in WHAM Community Arts Center on Sep. 19, 2017 at Surprise. (Photo: Rob Schumacher/The Republic)

For Whitlock, the success that Gilbert and Hernandez have found through art is that the benefit for her job.

“That is the reason why we do it,” she explained. “If you can inspire only one person, it’s worth it. That is why I am pushing hard to grow: to your neighborhood and for children.”

Whitlock hopes to keep expanding, because the club has achieved so far. In 2015, once the lease in their construction reverted to the city of Surprise, WHAM signed a 20-year rent. However, WHAM keeps hitting beyond those walls. The team will sponsor its initial plein-air festival at Peoria’s Vistancia neighborhood and recently purchased a truck that is used to maintain WHAM on Wheels. And they’re expanding their significance of arts together with events and poetry slams.

The major reason WHAM has been so effective, said Whitlock, is that it has over 200 members who are just as passionate as she is. Volunteers work in teams together with everyone contributing their own abilities.

“Even though I started this, it’s so much bigger than me,” Whitlock insisted. “it is a group effort.”

And that sense of neighborhood, based on Hernandez, is the greatest accomplishment of WHAM.

“It is all real folks,” he explained. “It is all ages and backgrounds and nobody’s excluded. Everybody’s included. It is how art should be.”

Details: WHAM Community Arts Center is a nonprofit, volunteer-run organization that offers art classes, workshops, exhibits, performances, and more. For info, see www.wham-art.org or telephone 623-584-8311. Situated in 16560 N. Dysart Road, Surprise.

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redhawkrealty · 7 years ago

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Arizona Cities Seeing The Greatest Real Estate Growth In 2017

With the addition of approximately 217,000 new residents, the state of Arizona is one of the country’s fastest growing states. The new growth has resulted from an enormous economic turnaround, specifically the opening of the Apple plant in the Phoenix suburb of Mesa. There are an estimated 10,000 places available for new residents and homeowners, making the silicon Desert the place to be.

Are homes available? What you want to look for when analyzing areas for relocation and availability of homes, check ownership rates. A high ownership rate leads to a higher overall score, whereas a lower one shows high competition and more options for renters over buyers.

Can you afford to live there? To determine whether a place is affordable you want to use monthly homeowner costs and median home values. The higher score in our report go to high median homes with low coasts of living.

Is the area growing? To answer this, population growth will tell you if an area is attracting new residents. A thriving local economy will usually bring in more home buyers.

Using the above measures, the best places to live in Arizona are provided below. Each of these towns are ideal if you are looking for a place to buy a home. Evaluate what you are looking for regarding incomes, median house values and area growth you can determine which town is a better suit your needs.

1. Maricopa

With a population jump of 19.6%, this area located in the Gila River Valley is a top spot for relocation. More that 805 of homes are owned versus rented, and the median cost for a house is $132,000. Hosting the popular Harrah’s Ak-Chin hotel and casino, the town features a great historical collection of the Ak-Chin people. The casino is the largest employer in the area. The community additionally offers the Ak-Chin-Him-Dak Eco Museum which showcases stone tools, arts and crafts and jewelry.

2. San Tan Valley

This suburb in the Greater Phoenix Area had the highest population spike has not yet been incorporated as its own town, but did get its own postal code in 2009. With a median home value of $126,300 and an ownership rate of 74%, this area is quickly becoming a popular place. There is potential for growth here and the low cost of living makes it ideal for first time home owners.

3. New River

The residents here earn a monthly income close to $7,185 with 28% of that going towards home ownership costs. Situated to the north of Phoenix, the average home value is $312,200 and it has the highest ownership rates (90.7%). Overall the town has seen 11.23% in population growth. The attraction to this area comes largely from the low numbers of rentals, showing this is a preferred place for those looking to settle and purchase a home.

4. Sahuarita

A more technologically advanced area located south of Tucson; Sahuarita has median incomes around $5,700 and a relatively low cost of living. The majority of homes in the area are owned rather than rented. Most employment stems from the huge organizations located there such as Raytheon which is an international defense and aerospace company and the University of Arizona Science and Technology Park.

5. Queen Creek

Thanks to local festivals such as the Roots n�� Boots Rodeo and the American Heritage Festival, this area saw a boost in population numbers of 12.1%. One of the highest household incomes of the places on the list, averages for the area is close to $7,343 a month. Most homes are owned and cost of living is higher than other places on this list, but is still relatively low. Residents can enjoy an amazing Parks and Recreation department, with programs and activities for all ages and coming soon will be a new 14 screen movie theater.

6. Buckeye

Buckeye is located in the Maricopa Valley and supports slightly higher number of renters than the previous location; however it is still primarily homeowners. This suburb of Phoenix has not had as large of population increases either, but has a very decent median household income and low cost of living. The town is famous for its old times western theme and annual Buckeye Days festival and the Helzapoppin’ Rodeo.

7. Marana

A relatively young city, when compared to most of Arizona towns, the population soared by 2012 to reach a little over 34,000, which is a big jump from its previous 1977 count of 1,500. Although the city is not very big, it has its own airport and a decent monthly income close to $6,000. There is definitely room for growth here and the cost of living is low, which makes a potentially ideal spot to settle and buy a home.

8. Anthem

A relatively small town of 23,000 residents, this community is still a very busy one and offers a lot to its members. The cost of living here is slightly higher than others on the list, but monthly median incomes are also a little higher. You can enjoy the veterans’ memorial, Liberty Bell Park and the Splash Pad as well as the beautiful 64-acre community park hosted by the Community Council Parks and Facilities.

9. Green Valley

30 miles south of Tucson, there has not been a lot of growth here in regards to population and the median monthly income is significantly lower than the other places listed. Most of the residents are employed in the local copper mines or the Smithsonian Institution’s Whipple Observatory (located in the nearby town of Amado). The lower growth rates, incomes and home values ($182,000 on average) are most likely due to this largely being a retirement community.

10. Goodyear

The original land for this town was bought by Paul Lichfield (Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company). Affordable to live there with decent incomes and steady growth rates, the town has an excellent economic standing for potential homeowners. Jobs are provided mostly by Macy’s and Amazon fulfillment centers as well as the popular food production companies of Snyder’s of Hanover, Del Monte and Poore Brothers. This town is great for baseball fans, as it hosts both the Cincinnati and the Cleveland Indians spring training camps.

The post Arizona Cities Seeing The Greatest Real Estate Growth In 2017 appeared first on Metro Phoenix & Mesa Property Management - Red Hawk PM | 85204 | Rental Property Management Arizona.

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aigreiphoenix · 8 years ago

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There are no fees, no commissions with our process. No equity? No Problem. We will pay for your closing costs. You can call us 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. We will give you a fair and honest price. Our advice/consultation is free. We will buy your home “As-Is”. We will buy your home for any reason — bad investment, bankruptcy, divorce, inheritance, bad tenants, foreclosure, home needs repairs — any reason! We can provide several solutions to your problem, giving you extra time to move and possibly remain in the house as a tenant. We will buy almost any single family home, apartment complex, condo, town home, etc. All personal information provided by you and all transactions are held in complete confidentiality.

There is simply no reason to do business with anyone else. We do what we say we’re going to do….and you can count on us!

▂▃▅▆ http://www.aigrei.com ▆▅▃▂, ▂▃▅▆ http://www.adonisinvestmentgroup.com ▆▅▃▂

Even More Benefits!

Get A Full-Cash-Offer In Minutes!

Sell Your House Fast For CA$H

Avoid Commissions and Fees

We Pay All Closing Costs

Sell On The Date Of Your Choice

Close in 14 Days For Cash! We Buy Houses In: · Anthem · Apache Junction · Avondale · Black Canyon City · Buckeye · Carefree · Casa Grande · Cave Creek · Chandler · Fountain Hills · Gilbert · Glendale · Globe · Gold Canyon · Golden Canyon · Goodyear · Heber · Higley · Laveen · Litchfield Park · Luke Air Force Base · Maricopa · Mesa · Paradise Valley · Payson · Peoria · Phoenix · Queen Creek · San Tan Mobile Village · San Tan Valley · Scottsdale · Sun City · Sun City West · Sun Lakes · Surprise · Tempe · Thatcher · Tolleson · Wickenburg · Wittmann

I Buy Houses Cash | We Buy Houses Phoenix | Sell Your House Fast | FSBO 480-553-9119

▂▃▅▆ http://www.aigrei.com ▆▅▃▂, ▂▃▅▆ http://www.adonisinvestmentgroup.com ▆▅▃▂

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We buy houses in all of these Phoenix areas:

85003, 85004, 85006, 85007, 85008, 85009, 85012, 85013, 85014, 85015, 85016, 85017, 85018, 85019, 85020, 85021, 85022, 85023, 85024, 85027, 85028, 85029, 85031, 85032, 85033, 85034, 85035, 85037, 85040, 85041, 85042, 85043, 85044, 85045, 85048, 85050, 85051, 85053, 85054, 85083, 85085, 85086, 85087, 85226, 85251, 85253, 85254, 85255, 85281, 85282, 85283, 85301, 85302, 85304, 85305, 85306, 85307, 85308, 85310, 85331, 85339, 85340, 85353, 85383, 85392.

Sell a house for cash in all of these Las Vegas Nevada areas:

89030, 89101, 89102, 89104, 89106, 89107, 89108, 89109, 89110, 89117, 89124, 89128, 89129, 89130, 89131, 89134, 89135, 89138, 89143, 89144, 89145, 89146, 89149, 89166.

from http://aigrei.com/avoid-bankruptcy-pre-foreclosure-foreclosure-help-short-sale/

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