#Hope I did a decent enough job showing the difference between old nathan and little nathan

[junker-town]

I don’t love Utah State’s Andersen re-hire, but it could work

By hiring Andersen, the Aggies declared their yearning for the past instead of embracing an exciting present.

Bill C’s annual preview series of every FBS team in college football continues. Catch up here!

For your perusal, here’s a list of FBS coaches that left a given school for whatever reason (retirement, bigger and better things) and then returned for a second tenure later on. I’m including their (FBS-only) records in both stints.

* Ault did three stints at Nevada, the first one actually beginning in 1976, when the Wolf Pack were still in Division II. For my purposes here, I will simply mash together the three FBS years of his first two stints.

While acknowledging that the context of each moves differs, we can generalize a couple of points:

For the most part, these guys were successful their first time. Don Fambrough had one good year at Kansas in each stint, but being that it was Kansas, that was good enough. And even Mike Riley improved Oregon State to 5-6 before he left the first time — it had been 27 years since they won as many as five games

These guys were, on average, less successful the second time around. Their average win percentage was 0.640 in Stint 1, 0.502 in Stint 2, a difference of about 1.7 wins per 12-game season. Riley is the main exception, and Fresno State’s Jim Sweeney benefited from a small Stint 1 sample. Take those two out, and the other eight sink from 0.675 in Stint 1 to 0.475 in Stint 2, a drop of two-tenths, or about 2.4 wins.

There are examples of success at other levels — Dartmouth’s Buddy Teevens is thriving in his second stint there — but on average, things don’t seem to work out as we hope.

The reason I bring this up in a Utah State preview should be pretty obvious: Andersen’s back.

You could make the case that Andersen built the modern Utah State. A longtime Utah assistant, Andersen came to Logan in 2009 and inherited a destitute program. Since John L. Smith had left in 1997, the Aggies had averaged just 3.2 wins per year; they averaged 2.3 wins and a 115.3 average S&P+ ranking in four years under Brent Guy.

We didn’t yet know that conference realignment was on the horizon, but with their trajectory, they had very little case for moving up from the WAC to the Mountain West. They were hopeless.

Four years later, they were 11-2.

After two good-for-USU seasons (the Aggies went 4-8 in his first two years), Utah State transitioned to simply good, going 7-6 and losing the Potato Bowl in 2011, then going 11-2 and winning it in 2012. They boasted an increasingly dominant defense, and their offense showed signs of life for the first time in ages.

Based on this alone, you could see why USU might want him back, yeah?

The idea gets a little dicier, however, when you look at what he’s done since.

He went to Wisconsin, won 20 games, and placed the Badgers twice in the S&P+ top 15. Not bad, for sure. But he clashed with athletic director Barry Alvarez and left for Oregon State (what most would assume is a far lesser job) following a 59-0 loss to Ohio State in the 2014 Big Ten title game.

He failed to build any traction at Oregon State. He inherited a program that had ranked worse than 62nd in S&P+ just once in 10 years, and he averaged a ranking of 99.7. He went 7-23 and, recognizing a lost cause, quit halfway through his third year.

Andersen hasn’t been a part of a happy, stable situation since he left Utah State. The good news is, he doesn’t appear to be one for wasting anyone’s time. If it becomes clear that returning wasn’t a good idea, he’ll skip town.

The bad news is, there are decent odds that this doesn’t work out.

Applying the 2.4-loss penalty to Andersen’s 6.5-wins-per-year average at USU gives you four-win seasons. Even applying it to his last two years puts you at 6.6 wins per year. No one’s going to be happy with that.

Matt Wells left Andersen quite a few exciting pieces, though. He’ll have a chance to start quickly.

After years of Wells’ Aggies struggling to live up to potential — they ranked in the top half of S&P+ each year from 2015-17 but went 2-10 in one-possession games and 15-23 overall — they exploded in 2018, winning 11 games, leaping to 21st in S&P+, and losing only at Michigan State and Boise State.

Quarterback Jordan Love threw for 3,500 yards (he’s back), running backs Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright combined for 1,932 yards (Bright’s back), and the defense improved from 67th to 35th in Def. S&P+ (half the two-deep returns). There are holes in the receiving corps and linebacking corps and on the offensive line, but there’s still lots of potential.

Offense

Andersen brought in another former head coach to run his offense. Mike Sanford was long regarded as a rising star following stints as a coordinator at Boise State and Notre Dame, but he struggled in two years as WKU’s head coach, starting his first year 5-2 and finishing his second 2-0 but going just 2-14 in between. At 36 years old, he’s got time to become a young up-and-comer again.

Sanford has been a part of lots of styles and sets of personnel strengths, but he seems like a guy who strives for balance when it’s an option.

Whether that’s an option could depend on the receiving corps. Love indeed returns after a sophomore season. He completed 64 percent of his passes with a 32-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio, and USU ranked a healthy 20th in Passing S&P+.

Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Jordan Love

Unfortunately, his top four targets are all gone; Ron’quavion Tarver, Jalen Greene, Aaron Vaughns, and tight end Dax Raymond combined for 170 catches, 2,324 yards, and 21 touchdowns. Junior slot man Jordan Nathan (28 catches, 297 yards) is the only returning WR who caught more than 10 passes.

Junior Savon Scraper could be the key to success. Over two years, he’s caught only 20 passes, but they’ve gone for a combined 396 yards and three scores. He caught a touchdown pass from Love in the spring game, as did redshirt freshman Sam Lockett.

Andersen signed JUCO tight end Mosese Manu and a pair of three-star receivers, but the most noteworthy addition is Utah transfer Siaosi Mariner, who caught 52 passes in three seasons with the Utes but got lost in the shuffle after some injuries (and was sadly involved in the Pac-12 Championship’s most memorable play).

Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

Gerold Bright

Balance also requires a run game that can run, I guess. USU will have the backs — amazing one-year wonder Darwin Thompson is now a Kansas City Chief, but Gerold Bright (6.3 yards per carry, plus an 88 percent catch rate out of the backfield) returns for his senior year, and BYU transfer Riley Burt and JUCO All-American Jaylen Warren add bigger options as well.

You need a line, though, and the Aggies’ front will be brand new. Six players with a combined 119 starts are gone (including all-conference performers in center Quin Ficklin and guard Roman Andrus), leaving sophomore left tackle Alfred Edwards (11 starts), center Demytrick Ali’ifua, and ... I’m not sure what else. There could be a lot of redshirt freshmen on the two-deep, and that’s scary even if a few of them got playing time and looked pretty good last year.

Huge offensive line turnover doesn’t have quite the effect you might think on one’s Off. S&P+ rating, but it’s still not a good thing.

Defense

With a great QB and a shaky everything else, the offense could go either way; the defense, however, should be fantastic.

Justin Ena, former Utah linebackers coach and special teams co-coordinator, is the new coordinator. The former BYU linebacker has DC experience at both Southern Utah and Weber State, and he should figure out what to do with this personnel.

Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

Tipa Galeai (10)

USU was good on standard downs (40th in SD S&P+) and merciless on passing downs (ninth in PD S&P+), and most of the key pieces from both of those efforts return.

Linebacker David Woodward was named a Pro Football Focus All-American last season. He was both a tackling machine and a play-maker, logging 12.5 tackles for loss, five sacks, and five passes defensed. Only end Tipa Galeai had more havoc plays.

Galeai’s also back. The 230-pounder is small for an end in a 3-4 structure, but he used that to his advantage, making 14 TFLs and 10.5 sacks. Opposite him are much bigger ends in Fua Leilua and Devon Anderson, and his primary road-grading partner at nose tackle, Christopher Unga, returns as well.

DJ Williams, Cameron Haney, and Ja’Marcus Ingram make one of the best CB corps in the league. They combined for 5.5 TFLs, four interceptions, and 24 pass breakups, and they were each stout enough to stand up in run defense, too.

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

David Woodward (9)

That’s a damn good starting point, and it should be enough to overcome some question marks elsewhere. Woodward is the only returning linebacker who made more than eight tackles last year. Junior Kevin Meitzenheimer has a load of potential, and a new set of OLBs will benefit from the disruptiveness of the ends in front of them, but there could still be some glitches.

Those could be magnified by the loss of safeties Game Ferguson and Aaron Wade. Ferguson was one of the best in the conference, and while there are some semi-experienced pieces in juniors Shaq Bond, Baron Gajkowski, and Chase Nelson, opponents could find it a bit easier to make big plays, even if the Aggie defense is still super efficient.

Special Teams

USU was distinctly average, good at place-kicking and kickoffs, iffy at punting, and explosive (and inefficient) in returns. With kicker Dominik Eberle back, the strengths should remain the strengths. He was 9-for-12 on field goals longer than 40 yards, and that could come in handy if the run game isn’t quite as reliable and a few more drives stall out before the end zone. And on the rare occasions when opponents score, Savon Scarver is a terrifying return man — he averaged nearly 34 yards.

2019 outlook

2019 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 31-Aug at Wake Forest 62 1.9 54% 7-Sep Stony Brook NR 29.7 96% 21-Sep at San Diego State 54 0.2 50% 28-Sep Colorado State 109 22.8 91% 5-Oct at LSU 4 -20.8 12% 19-Oct Nevada 83 12.0 76% 26-Oct at Air Force 90 8.6 69% 2-Nov BYU 50 4.4 60% 9-Nov at Fresno State 51 -0.4 49% 16-Nov Wyoming 92 14.7 80% 23-Nov Boise State 24 -2.5 44% 30-Nov at New Mexico 115 20.4 88%

Projected S&P+ Rk 42 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 47 / 44 Projected wins 7.7 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 2.5 (63) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 97 2018 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 14 / 5.9 2018 TO Luck/Game +3.1 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 54% (46%, 63%) 2018 Second-order wins (difference) 10.0 (1.0)

The Andersen hire left a bad taste in my mouth, primarily because it hints at a longing for the past when the present tense was awfully exciting. If he is up for it, though, he could absolutely find more success.

Andersen knows how to recruit to USU — at the Aggies’ best, they have always struck a perfect balance between JUCOs, transfers, and five-year guys to maintain class balance — and he made logical assistant hires. He also inherits possibly the best offensive (Love) and defensive (Woodward) players in the league. That doesn’t hurt.

The S&P+ projections, which don’t take coaching changes into account, are pretty optimistic. Despite turnover in the trenches and in the receiving corps, USU is still projected 42nd overall and top-50 on both offense and defense.

The Aggies should be able to land some shots against what is, frankly, a brutal schedule. They host two top-50 opponents (Boise State and BYU) and face road trips to LSU, Fresno State, SDSU, and Wake Forest. A good team might go 3-3 at best in those games and 8-4 overall. A team struggling with a leadership change, however, could easily find itself 5-7. So even with a solid roster, Andersen’s got to prove himself right off the bat.

Team preview stats

All 2019 preview data to date.

[deadlyxkingsley-blog]

A Sense of Purpose || Self Para

Word Count: 1,502 Mentions: Hypoxia, Helix, Halogen Place: The Hamptons, NY Time: March 12th, 2013

More than three years had passed since Nina had been sent on her first mission and yet the memory still played itself in black and white through the assassin’s mind like the event had only taken place yesterday. She often found herself reminiscing the moment when she was alone and today just so happened to be one of those times.

“You ready?” Nathan asked as he greeted her, to which she answered with a confident nod. Carrying her rifle case in one hand, she walked to her chopper face down to avoid having her hair blown into a bird nest by the strong wind. The instruction for the mission was plain and simple: eliminate Dr. Emilia McCain – but Nina knew there would not be anything easy about the execution. The target was someone she had spoken to in person in more occasions that she’d like to admit. Mistress McCain had been among her father’s clients, back when Kingsley Medical had still belonged to its righteous owners, and according to her experience, the woman had always been a decent person – always paid the bill on time, helped provide their company with an extended network, and most importantly, never violated their terms and agreement. Why the agency assigned her to this mission, she could never know for sure, for asking questions was simply not in her nature, but the girl had her guess: they wanted her to show just how far she was willing to give up on her past to prove both her loyalty and capability – and you bet if that was really the case, she’d give them exactly what they were asking for.

The whole flight to their destination, Nina was reviewing the layout of the map over and over again. She would be stationed in an abandoned building a few blocks away from McCain’s resort in the Hamptons and it was up to her to pick which floor she believed would have the best line of sight to the target’s place. It was a solo mission and she had been told not to worry about making it look like anything but an assassination. Still, it went without saying that any sign of her existence where she mounted her weapon could be traced back to the agency and thus, assuming everything was going as planned, Nina would make sure she had taken all the necessary precautions before leaving.

Once she jumped out of the chopper, the doctor wasted no time to find the perfect spot to install her equipment. She had 20 minutes to get the job done until her ride came back – anything beyond that would result in desertion. During the briefing, Nina had been informed that the target had a plan to host a cocktail party in her backyard this evening. McCain would’ve made this too easy had she required everyone to stay outside, but unfortunately, knowing the nature of such events, it was very likely that she would need to go back and forth between greeting her guests at the venue and inside the resort, instead. Besides, the presence of crowd posed its own challenge for it meant Nina only got one shot that had to be very accurate in order to prevent any unwanted casualty and there was only a short window for her to pack things up before her location got compromised.

“Ready to open fire,” she whispered to her mic, reporting her progress to her pilot. It was her debut, after all, and anyone with more experience who was sent to keep an eye on her had all the reasons in the world to worry about her performance and want her to keep them updated. That being said, Nina didn’t plan to fail those who had faith in her. She was calm as usual, both arms embracing her first-ever rifle ­– which she later named after her mother – in a steady grip. Ten minutes had passed and even though people had begun to gather in the balcony, the target herself had not yet been seen. Thirteen minutes had passed and Nina started to be a little nervous, but then she heard Nathan whispering back, “Eleven o’clock, near the bar.” And there she spotted the other doctor walking through the crowd, speaking to other billionaires and yet, never stopped moving for more than a few seconds – just like Nina, Mrs. McCain looked somehow hurried.

It wasn’t until the woman stepped onto the small stage to the far east of the venue for reasons the assassin didn’t give two shits about that the agent found her opening. Gently touching the pad of her right index finger on her trigger, she realized she realized there was less than five minutes left. It appeared that her target was merely giving a welcoming speech, so unless Nina shot now, there probably wouldn’t be a second chance. Funny thing was, her only concern all this time had been whether or not the way she executed her mission would fulfil the agency’s expectation. She strangely felt no remorse when her bullet cracked her target’s skull open, destroying the beauty that had once been familiar to her. Although she was aware that this wasn’t how people should feel when they spilled blood for the first time, let alone that of someone they had interacted in person, Nina had been raised to get things done, so getting things done was the one thing that actually gave her the highest satisfaction in life, even if it meant she would have to get her hands dirty. That was the day when she once again found a sense of purpose, one she’d never thought would come in the form of something that was completely different than her old values as a doctor – something that was not, by any means, innocent called killing.

Securing Audrey back where it belonged, she was waiting for her exfiltration behind the wall she’d used as her cover when she saw something moved past her shoulder before eventually crashing into the metal door across of her, leaving a small round-shaped crack on its surface. In both panic and surprise, Nina’s reflex was to draw her rifle out again and stand up as she turned around to aim at whoever it was that had dared to startle her. Considering the bullet had come from a higher place, there was no way the shooter was among the party guests as the location of the resort itself was lower than Nina’s spot. It was only when another ammo was fired and scraped her right cheek that she saw her attacker, a person standing on top of a skyscraper two blocks from where she was. Further investigation through her scope revealed that they were wearing a black catsuit similar to her own whereas their face, too, was covered in a black balaclava. She’d heard about this rival organization called Valkyrie before, but could that be them? Nina couldn’t risk standing still for another peek as she saw her ride coming, the agent jumping for her life and screaming at Nathan, practically begging him to take her away from the battlefield as soon as possible.

A week had passed since the incident and surprisingly, the suits had yet expressed their dissatisfaction regarding her performance despite the mess she’d left behind. The brunette still found herself questioning why until Halogen showed up at the lab to bring her the answer. “You forgot this,” the older woman calmly broke the silence as she passed on this tiny velvet bag to which Nina responded with a confused frown. She said nothing, nonetheless, and simply followed through by opening the container. It was the bullet that had wounded her face – which, thanks to Macey’s stitching skill, would later heal without any marks left. “I was sent to retrieve it because the damn thing was covered in your blood. You would be surprised just how much information your DNA could spill to our enemies,” Nina stayed silent as Halogen highlighted her points, “Just try to be more careful next time.”

Piqued by curiosity, the researcher in her quickly made her way to the nearest electron microscope to inspect the clip as soon as her guest was out of sight. Unfortunately, any unique physical markings to identify where it came from had somehow been destroyed – probably a measure taken by whoever had been targeting her to make it untraceable. Further ballistic analysis didn’t provide any useful information either since the bullet turned out to be quite widely used among firearm enthusiasts. To this day, Nina still kept it as a memento in a small velvet blue box hidden in the drawer of her rifle rack. Anytime she needed to remind herself just how far she’d gone since that day, she would take it with her to the rooftop to smile at while she wondered how different her life would’ve been without the agency. She probably could never get a perfect closure, but she did hope that would be the last time she’d ever made a rookie mistake as grave as not paying enough attention to her surrounding.

[thrashermaxey]

Capped: Cap Situations for all 31 NHL Teams

  Hopefully everyone had a fun Halloween. It was a little disappointing only having one NHL game on the slate though, so let’s make up for it with a record long Capped article. Over 3500 words coming right at you! 

  A month into the season, we have enough of a sample size to start drawing conclusions about what kind of scenarios may play out this season. The cap makes things tougher on teams, but it also lends itself to a lot of patterns and predictability if you’re looking in the right places. Here’s a starting point for each NHL team.

  Anaheim Ducks

The biggest storyline in the cap world of the Anaheim Ducks is how they build/rebuild around John Gibson. Gibson is the early Vezina leader, but the rest of the team has struggled to produce much at all. With youngsters Troy Terry, Sam Steel and Maxime Comtois stepping up, the window is anything but shut, however, there are a few bigger contracts to be sorted out. One of Ryan Kesler or Corey Perry will have to be moved out if the younger players are to grow. With Carlyle and some older contracts around, the growth will continue to be stifled.

  Next year’s roster has a Cap hit of $75 million, with only 15 player contracts accounted for. Something’s going to give, and a change of scenery may help Perry.

  Arizona Coyotes

Arizona has managed their cap fairly well, but be ready for another sell off come trade deadline time. Richard Panik and Jordan Oesterle could be useful depth pieces for contenders, but a trade would likely mean pushing them even farther down the lineup (bad for their fantasy value).

  The Coyotes are also at the max 50 contracts on the books, so a couple minor league trades may occur before that point to give them a little more flexibility come deadline day.

  Boston Bruins

Off the top of your head, who is the Bruins’ highest-paid forward? It’s not Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand or David Pastrnak; David Krejci holds the honour, and is signed for another three seasons. The Bruins need that depth scoring to pick up, otherwise they aren’t going to keep up in a surprisingly upstart Atlantic division. Your best fantasy bets are Jake DeBrusk and Ryan Donato, both on very friendly contracts, and good positive regression candidates.

  Buffalo Sabres

With approximately $10 million coming off the books between Matt Moulson and Jason Pominville this offseason, Buffalo could take a run at one of the 2019 free-agent defencemen. As we know, that worked so well for them last time, using an amnesty buyout on Christian Erhoff.

  Whatever the direction may be, they are also going to have to keep in mind that they want to show Jeff Skinner why he should be sticking around. Otherwise he may turn into one of the biggest prizes of the 2019 UFA class. He will continue to be given the best linemates.

  Calgary Flames

Matthew Tkachuk is an RFA, and he is going to take a decent payday to get re-signed, but it will get done.

  The big storyline for the rest of the year is what happens in net moving forward. Mike Smith has the contract, but is playing poorly. David Rittich is the backup for now, but is playing better than Smith. Jon Gillies is the goalie of the future, and has a one-way contract starting next season making him the odds on favourite to be the starter at that point. Smith likely gets let go at the end of the year, and if he is going to be gone anyways, we could see the starts favour Rittich after the All-Star break.

  Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina has the lowest cap hit in the league this season, and may actually be a buyer at the trade deadline for the first time in a while. They have the space to make a push for a Mark Stone or an Artemi Panarin, so keep an eye on those forward line combos, as things may shake up as the season moves on. This means we may see some of their rookies get pushed down the lineup.

  Bold move: The Hurricanes have the capital and the cap space to acquire both Sergei Bobrovsky and Panarin, and they swing for the fences trying to bring the Stanley Cup to Carolina for the first time since 2006.

  Chicago Blackhawks

Predictably with Chicago, the narrative covers the core five. They have rebounded nicely with a winning record thus far. However, Chicago has not been able to keep higher salaried players around because of these contracts before. This year will be no different, especially with Brandon Saad’s contract looking immoveable too. Look for a new wave of rookies to come up next year, and maybe see if you can get in ahead, before guys like Victor Ejdsell, Dylan Sikura, and Matthew Highmore are on the common sleepers lists next summer.

  Colorado Avalanche

Does it matter what is happening with the salary cap when the top line trio is as hot as they are? Well, yes it does, especially since Mikko Rantanen needs a new contract. My contract model has him right now with an eight digit AAV, which goes to show how great he has been playing. That being said, he won’t get that much. There’s no benefit from a bridge deal either, so something similar to what David Pastrnak got from Boston may be a good comparison (adjusted for inflation of course). Nathan MacKinnon took a little less money, and Colorado isn’t going to let Rantanen greatly usurp his contract number.

  Columbus Blue Jackets

As covered a little in the Carolina section, Columbus is either going to have to seriously contend this year, or take a hard look in the mirror and move out Panarin and Bobrovsky. They need to learn from the Islanders. My bet is that at least Panarin gets moved, which is unfortunate for his linemates, but will also open up a hole for Boone Jenner to step up to the top line.

  Dallas Stars

With Jason Spezza and Mark Methot coming off the books, and no large extensions upcoming (Tyler Seguin already re-signed), this team may be able to build up their forward depth, and contend a little more seriously next season. Bishop would be a good goalie target for those looking ahead and not wanting to pay for a top of the line starter.

  Detroit Red Wings

The team with the highest cap hit is also sitting at the bottom of the standings. Dylan Larkin and all of their impressive rookie defencemen will still not be enough to save them. Gustav Nyqvist, Jimmy Howard, and Niklas Kronwall should all be gone by next summer, and that will kick start the rebuild. In the meantime, just stay away from anyone not named Larkin or Dennis Cholowski (dude is a stud).

  Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton is going to turn themselves into the 2015 Chicago Blackhawks before they even have a chance to win a cup, let alone the three the Blackhawks had by that point in the cap era. What did we learn from Chicago? Well that Alex DeBrincat is the most valuable piece coming through among a sea of overpaid players. What does that mean for Edmonton? Well it means that one of Jesse Puljujarvi or Kailer Yamamoto should get the opportunity to turn into a big scorer. Now is the buy low moment for Yamamoto.

  Florida Panthers

An older tweet from James Mirtle shows a relevant topic four years later. The 39-year-old Roberto Luongo has four years left on his contract, and when he retires has a large impact on both the Florida Panthers and the Vancouver Canucks. Both teams will have to make sure they have the cap space to manage the possible penalties. The Panthers have done a good job of managing their cap situation, and with no one of importance up for free-agency, it looks to be status quo with them.

    That is until management has had enough of losing, and decides to really shake things up with a blockbuster trade.

  Los Angeles Kings

This team needs a rebuild (that was evident even before news broke that Jonathan Quick would be out for 3-6 weeks). That’s an unfortunate thing to need with $138 million due to Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty over a combined 13 years, starting next year. I’m not sure who is in worse shape, LA or Anaheim. The Kings have 18 players signed for next season, and are already at $77.5 million. Tanner Pearson may become the casualty to a lucky team that puts him in a position to succeed.

  Minnesota Wild

Think Minnesota wants a do-over on the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter contracts? I sure would. After this season, there is still six years and over $45 million left on both contracts. Plus, Minnesota has their best cap bargain (Eric Staal at $3.5 million) expiring as a UFA. Let’s hope new GM Paul Fenton can make some maneuvers out from under the collapsing situation Chuck Fletcher left him. Otherwise the Wild will see themselves quickly surpassed in the Central division.

  Montreal Canadiens

Carey Price’s new $10.5 million AAV contract has kicked in, and it doesn’t look like a disaster. If Shea Weber can come back healthy for the second half, this may actually be a bubble playoff team. Artturi Lehkonen will need a new contract (likely a bridge signing), and the Karl Alzner deal needs to disappear, but there are some solid fantasy contracts to be found here. Especially one of my personal favourites, Brendan Gallagher.

  Nashville Predators

Still the model of contract gold, there is a new set of key RFAs looking for a fresh contract this summer. Colton Sissons and Ryan Hartman have arbitration rights, while Kevin Fiala doesn’t. Don’t expect either of Hartman or Sissons to actually hit arbitration. David Poile will get them locked up like he did with Calle Jarnkrok, Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson. Meanwhile Kevin Fiala will get a one or two-year bridge deal to bring him to arbitration. This will be less than most people are expecting him to receive, before he breaks out and gets paid on his future deal.

  New Jersey Devils

Keith Kinkaid can be a starter in this league, and will likely move on in search of a starting job elsewhere. The native of Long Island may look to the Islanders first, but between Robin Lehner playing well, and Tomas Greiss succeeding on top of having one more year on his contract, the timing may not be right. Instead, Kinkaid may look a touch West of his current home, filling a spot we will discuss a little later.

  Back to the Devils, the other big name due an extension is Will Butcher. He may not get quite the same amount of coin, but he reminds me a little of Tyson Barrie with the Avalanche, who got a bigger contract than expected despite being mainly an offensive catalyst. Don’t be caught unaware expecting a bridge deal.

  New York Islanders

After losing John Tavares, Lou Lamoriello tried to replace quality with quantity. Unsurprisingly it’s not having quite the desired effect. The Isles’ brass will have to work hard to make sure it doesn’t repeat mistakes of last year, this time with Anders Lee. Currently on a bargain contract, the team captain Lee deserves a big raise, and is going to get it. The Isles are primed to overpay Lee just to get him to stay, and they have the cap space to do it too. Winger Jordan Eberle may be allowed to walk, as he is probably going to be looking to win something other than the 2009 World Juniors (that is never going to get old).

  New York Rangers

The Rangers are “rebuilding” in their own special way, but that doesn’t mask the fact that Mika Zibanejad is one of the best cap bargains that no one talks about. Already at nine points through 11 games, Zibs could keep up a 70-point pace through the season with the top minutes he’s getting for the Rangers. What they decide to with him and his contract though is another story. If the Rangers truly want to bottom out, they would have plenty of suitors lining up hefty packages in return for the 25-year-old. In the meantime, names such as Kevin Hayes, Ryan Spooner, and Mats Zuccarello will remain on the trade block. All three could benefit from a change in scenery.

  Ottawa Senators

With two key free-agents this summer, things could (and will) look a lot different in Ottawa next year. However, until ownership changes, they will be bogged down by the same problems, and things won’t really change. Maybe they can exceed Eugene Melnyk’s expectations next year and ice a full 23-man roster of rookies, minus Craig Anderson. Lots of good opportunities to get in here with some cheap ELC production.

  Philadelphia Flyers

With both goalies having contracts that expire in July, plus the brass wanting to bring along Carter Hart extra slowly, the door opens for Keith Kinkaid. Between him and Hart, the goalie carousel may finally be coming to an end in the short term. Expect Wayne Simmonds to walk straight into free-agency with Brian Elliott and Michael Neuvirth.

  On top of that, Ivan Provorov needs a new contract, and he may top what Matt Dumba got from Minnesota. Aaron Ekblad’s $7.5 million AAV could be closer to what he’s asking for right away. He deserves it too.

  Pittsburgh Penguins

Someday Daniel Sprong will arrive. In the meantime, Sidney Crosby will continue to buoy players like Brian Rust into earning their livelihood on one contract. As another option, with Derrick Brassard, Carl Hagelin, and other contracts coming off the books, the Penguins could dip into a winger-rich free agent pool next summer, coming out with a player such as Stone, Panarin, or Skinner. The goalies and defence are pretty much set, so why not beef up the forward group even further.

  San Jose Sharks

With only 10 skaters signed past this year, and many needing raises (including Erik Karlsson and Joe Pavelski), this team is going to look very different next season. As a result, their window is as open right now as it is likely to be in the next number of years, but they are also right up against the salary cap. They may make a few smaller moves for this year, but the real fun will start once they are eliminated from the playoffs (or win it all). Joe Thornton can’t keep coming back forever, can he?

  Seattle

Didn’t see this one coming did you? Well Seattle remains on track to join the league for the start of the 2020-2021 season, and if we’re looking ahead, you can’t discount the impact another expansion franchise will have. The team will bring more skaters, more points, more revenue, more games, and more decisions for general managers. With having had Vegas join the league back in 2017, we can be better prepared this time around. In the cap era, a team can do a lot of damage if they bring together solid parts without being weighed down by anchor contracts. If Seattle is to succeed, that will be the key. Don’t expect them to make the finals in their first year, but there will be some fantasy gems to be mined.

  St. Louis Blues

Jake Allen has gone from what was supposed to be one of the best goalie contracts in the league, to one of the poorest performers this season. The Blues have the depth at forward and on defence to be real contenders, but if their goalie keeps letting them down, they are in danger of narrowly missing the playoffs again this year. Unfortunately for them, they don’t have the cap space to bring in someone to help. Either their AHL starter Ville Husso is going to grab the reigns and channel his inner Matt Murray to a deep playoff run, or we are going to see the tailspin continue until Mike Yeo is let go. A coaching change is probably the only thing that saves Allen’s value at this point.

  Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning only have three defensemen signed past this season, but good thing for them it’s their top three. What this means is that we could see a prospect or two jump to the third pairing next season. Former first rounder Cal Foote has a good chance, as do Erik Cernak and Dominik Masin. These prospects, have an even better shot if the Tampa brass can’t get rid of Ryan Callahan, and still wants to re-sign recent breakout forwards Yanni Gourde and Brayden Point. Gourde has been one of the best fantasy bargains not on an entry level deal, while Point has been producing well before most expected him to. Both will be due a significant raise similar to Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson re-upping in 2017. With cap inflation, expect the two new deals to be closer to $6 million than $5 million.

  Toronto Maple Leafs

William Nylander still needs a contract, plus Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner will need new deals soon too. This will possibly define Kyle Dubas’ career.

  My thoughts on Nylander are here, and you can find my thoughts on Matthews and Marner here. All points regarding those three still stand.

  Vancouver Canucks

See the Florida Pathers write up, plus they signed a bunch of bad free-agent contracts, and are even farther away from the playoffs.

  If they can us their abundant cap space to get Brock Boeser signed long term, then between the trio of Boeser, Bo Horvat and Elias Pettersson, there is a core to build around. A few years avoiding free-agent frenzy, and not having $25 million on the IR will go a long way to moving the Canucks slowly up the standings. In the meantime, there won’t be much fantasy growth outside of the aforementioned top trio.

  Vegas Golden Knights

After showing the hockey world how great you can be without an anchor contract or two, Vegas is slowly joining the pack. The seven-year, $4.75 million AAV contract to Alex Tuch could very well turn out to be a good one, but the six-year, $5.95 million AAV deal to Nate Schmidt is very much above market value, and doesn’t leave as much room to either re-sign Pacioretty or look for some other depth scoring. Vegas has $72.2 million locked up in 14 players going into next season, so they may not be able to bring in another piece to bump them back into that top tier in the Western conference.

  Washington Capitals

Contracts due to RFAs Andre Burakovsky, Chandler Stephenson, Jakub Vrana, and others, will be very telling towards who has a shot at taking the top line gig during Tom Wilson’s next suspension of a full season. All of the core players are signed for at least another year, and most for longer. This team is going to consistently be a fantasy haven, where you get what you pay for, plus a high powerplay point bonus.

  Winnipeg Jets

Last but not least, there are a couple Jets that need gassing up before taking off next season. Patrick Laine and Kyle Connor are going to get similar money to that discussed for Matthews and Marner (the Jets’ duo is also featured in the same article as the Leafs’ pair – again, linked here).

  The real fun storyline in the middle of nowhere, will be between the Jets and Jacob Trouba. Trouba is going to take a look at the recent contracts to Matt Dumba, Ryan Ellis, and Cam Fowler, saying he deserves at least that. He may have a point, but that doesn’t mean Winnipeg can oblige. The Jets have a whole set of other key players on larger contracts, and plenty of young defensive talent in the pipeline. A trade would make the most sense, likely for a similar skater who will take on a smaller cap hit to play with a contending team in Winnipeg. As a top pairing defenceman elsewhere, Trouba’s value would take a big jump – not up to the top tier, but possibly inside the top 10-15.

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If you read the whole article, cheers! If you just skimmed some and skipped to your favourite team, that’s fine too. Let me know in the comments if you agree with what was said about them, or if you think there was something missed.

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  Previous Capped articles:

Early Point-Per-Dollar Disappointments

Early Point-Per-Dollar Leaders

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Last plug in the articles, get the enormous fantasy resource that is the DobberHockey 2018-2019 Fantasy guide. Keep your eyes open for the mid-season guide too. We won’t let you miss it.

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All cap related info is courtesy of Capfriendly. All player data was pulled from FrozenTools.

  That caps off this week’s record article, thanks for reading. As always, you can find me on twitter @alexdmaclean.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/capped/capped-cap-situations-for-all-31-nhl-teams/