#GBPUSD Technical Analysis

[accapitalmarket]

FX outlook: A submissive USD meets alpha AUD, JPY tumbles

The US markets were closed on Monday due to Labor Day holiday. During the shortened trading day of futures, traders found that both trading volume and price fluctuations were significantly lower than average. Therefore, today we turn our attention to the forex market.

After a two-month consecutive decline, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) finally found a short-term bottom at the support level of 100.357 and has recently rebounded, driven by solid U.S. economic data.

In last Wednesday night's "Financial Frontline" webinar hosted by the Research Department, I once again emphasized the fundamental change in market pricing rules, which also signifies a 180-degree shift in the dollar pricing logic. Good economic data is no longer bearish because the inflation problem has become a thing of the past. Thus, solid economic growth data is no longer a reason for investors to price in continuous Fed rate hikes or to keep rates high for an extended period. On the contrary, robust economic data is the most crucial prerequisite for a soft landing of the U.S. economy.

Therefore, good data is the driving force behind the stock market's rise and the dollar's moderate rebound, and this is the pricing and analysis logic that investors must quickly adapt to.

This week's series of significant U.S. economic data will naturally be the core drivers of the forex market, the stock market, and major assets like gold: the two sets of U.S. PMI data on Tuesday and Wednesday, the import and export and trade balance data on Wednesday, the job openings report on Thursday, and most importantly, the non-farm payroll data on Friday.

From a technical analysis perspective, the dollar's rebound has caused varying degrees of pullback in non-dollar currency pairs, with the yen showing the most noticeable decline. USDJPY rebounded from the support level of 143.691 and, after breaking through the resistance level of 145.942, has now reached below 146.921.

The euro and pound exhibited similar movements, with EURUSD and GBPUSD both pulling back after consecutive rallies in recent periods. However, the downward channels and downward trendlines that emerged during the pullback have slowed significantly. Traders can look for short-term breakout opportunities using the key levels in the charts below, along with this week's important economic data.

Among the non-dollar currency pairs, the Australian dollar remains the strongest, having recently shown the most significant gains. AUDUSD recorded a 7% rebound within a month and briefly broke through the 0.68 mark, but it has since pulled back to a certain extent. However, it still remains above the support level of 0.67535, forming a range-bound movement between this level and the upper resistance level of 0.67971. Traders should pay attention to the Australian export data to be released at 11:30 AM (Beijing time 09:30) this morning.

If the data exceeds expectations, the Australian dollar could gain more upward momentum.

Disclaimer:

The information contained in this market commentary is of general nature only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You are strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions.

Trading margin forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors could experience losses in excess of total deposits. You do not have ownership of the underlying assets. AC Capital Market (V) Ltd is the product issuer and distributor. Please read and consider our Product Disclosure Statement and Terms and Conditions, and fully understand the risks involved before deciding to acquire any of the financial products provided by us.

The content of this market commentary is owned by AC Capital Market (V) Ltd. Any illegal reproduction of this content will result in immediate legal action.

[mutange12]

GBPUSD Tuesday forecast

Technical Analysis: The technical indicators from various sources suggest a bullish sentiment for GBP/USD. Moving averages, RSI, and other indicators like STOCH, MACD, and CCI are showing buy signals, with some indicators like STOCHRSI and Williams %R indicating overbought conditions but still within a bullish context. This suggests that while the pair might be due for a slight correction or…

[googlesblogs777]

 Analyzing the COT Reports: Understanding Market Trends Amid Global Events

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is an essential tool for traders looking to understand market sentiment and position themselves effectively. Let's dive into the recent geopolitical and economic events shaping these trends and their potential implications on trading and the markets.

Market Overview

Recent global events have significantly influenced market prices. Key developments include:

Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Talks: Multiple failed attempts at peace talks, with recent negotiations collapsing after an Israeli bombing of a safe zone.

Ukraine-Russia Peace Efforts: Hosting a peace summit aiming for resolution.

Global Cyber Outage: Windows experienced a major outage affecting various sectors.

US Election Dynamics: Trump's dominance in polls and potential win have stirred market reactions.

Today, we will focus on the Israel-Hamas conflict and its market implications.

The Israel-Hamas Conflict

The conflict between Israel and Hamas has intensified, with peace talks repeatedly failing. Recently, the US proposed a deal seemingly accepted by Hamas until Israel’s actions disrupted negotiations. Questions arise about Netanyahu's intentions as his regime nears its end, with his cabinet showing reluctance to surrender or negotiate.

Public sentiment in Israel is shifting, with rallies demanding a peace treaty and the release of hostages. India has also called for peace, yet the global reaction remains muted.

Economic Implications

1. Increased Demand for Military Assets: The ongoing conflict raises demand for armaments, impacting prices of metals like silver, palladium, and gold, essential in creating military necessities.

2. Safe-Haven Assets: Rising unrest boosts demand for safe-haven assets. Gold, a traditional safe-haven, has seen price increases, influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions.

3. Oil Prices: Disruptions in oil supply due to conflicts can increase oil prices, affecting global markets. This could slow the global economy or cause asset price declines. Conversely, oil companies might see growth in sales and stock prices.

4. Alternative Energies and Technologies: Investors might shift focus towards growth in alternative energies and technologies amid rising military conflicts.

5. Medical Field Growth: Increased demand for medical supplies and technologies is another potential growth area, driven by the need for advancements in war-related medical technologies.

6. Military Technologies: Kyiv’s development of AI-enabled war drones highlights the rising importance of AI in military applications.

Further Considerations

Iran's potential involvement in the conflict could escalate tensions, impacting global markets further. The US response, particularly under a potential Trump presidency, could also influence market stability. Monitoring Netanyahu’s strategies and the broader geopolitical landscape will be crucial for traders.

Upcoming Financial News

Key financial events this week include:

U.S., Europe, and U.K.: Manufacturing and Services PMI on Wednesday.

BOC Rate Statement: Insights into Canada's economic direction.

U.S. Advance GDP q/q: Data release on Thursday, along with unemployment claims.

Core PCE Index m/m: U.S. report to conclude the week.

Commodity Analysis

Gold: Gold prices surged last week due to expectations of a FED rate cut in September. Despite a technical correction, gold remains at a high, with potential for new records. Current price: $2401.779.

Silver: Silver saw a price decline, now testing $29.018. Analysts expect a significant rise as Israel’s attacks continue, and a potential Trump win could further boost silver prices.

Currency Analysis

DXY (Dollar Index): The dollar is consolidating, favoring a bearish trend. Expected to drop further within the next two weeks.

GBPUSD: The pound shows strength, finding demand beyond 1.28508. We anticipate further bearish runs, presenting buying opportunities.

AUDUSD: The Aussie dollar remains bullish, despite potential consolidation until the FED rate cut announcement. Firms are repositioning, indicating continued bullishness.

NZDUSD: The Kiwi may weaken further due to RBNZ rate cut expectations. Monitoring price movements closely is advisable.

EURUSD: EUR strength persists, with technical corrections expected before continuing its rise. Watch for price changes around 1.08541.

USDJPY: The Yen’s ascent is slowing, with potential further wins. However, intervention from BoJ remains a factor.

USDCHF: CHF shows increased strength, testing 0.88868, with bearish structures likely to continue.

USDCAD: CAD remains weak, with potential further declines. BOC’s interest rate decisions will be crucial.

Conclusion

Understanding these market trends and geopolitical dynamics is essential for effective trading strategies. Monitoring upcoming financial events and global developments will provide further insights into market movements. Stay informed and ready to adjust your strategies accordingly.

[feedyourmind1031]

Currency Analysis: Market Outlook by Rich Smart Finance

As we look forward to the core PCE data release this Friday, the market is showing signs of relief from the dollar's weakening trend. Gains are evident across various sectors, including metals, crude, Brent oil, and equities, with the NASDAQ achieving record highs. Yields are also decelerating. Our primary focus remains on the upcoming core PCE data, which will shape our market strategies and responses.

Gold

Gold has recorded gains following the latest COT report. Traders have seized the chance to make small profits ahead of the PCE results. Currently, gold is trading above 2332.174 and is nearing a test of 2365.443.

Silver

In the previous market close, silver lacked the momentum and supply to fall below 29.900. The market has since rebounded strongly to 30.938, preparing for the core PCE data release on Friday.

DXY (Dollar Index)

The dollar is reflecting traders' sentiment ahead of the core PCE data release. If the PCE result is 0.30 or higher, the FED and policymakers might adopt a more hawkish stance, potentially limiting rate cuts to only one by year-end. A PCE result of 0.27 or lower could relieve market pressures, allowing equities and metals to strengthen as the dollar stabilizes. Currently, the dollar is trading just below 104.607 after being strongly rejected at 105.071.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has edged closer to 1.27038 as expected. We maintain our bullish outlook for this pair while awaiting further price action.

AUDUSD

The AUDUSD market is showing a bullish trend technically as structures hold up. We are watching to see if 0.66541 will act as resistance or if the currency will break higher. Notably, there is a head and shoulders (SHS) pattern forming on the 1-hour timeframe.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD has broken above the 0.61408 range and continues to exhibit bullish momentum on the technical charts. We expect this upward movement to persist unless price action suggests otherwise.

EURUSD

EURUSD has returned within its range, trading above 1.08541 after failing to break below the trendline. We now anticipate the price to rise towards 1.08950, showing confidence in the established support.

USDJPY

Following the BoJ hearing, the Yen has gained strength and momentum, albeit gradually. Governor Uchida emphasized the aim to re-anchor inflation expectations despite challenges in estimating neutral interest rates accurately. With wages likely to continue rising and external pressures from potential US rate cuts, Japan faces mixed influences on its currency. We expect further market interventions for Yen pairs and await additional inflation data to gauge the economy's impact.

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc (CHF) has regained strength, winning against the dollar at 0.91580 and pushing the price lower towards 0.91329. The structure now shows a bullish sentiment, but we await further confirmation. The price is likely to hold above 0.91807 or potentially fail, which would influence our bias accordingly.

USDCAD

The USDCAD market has rejected a move towards key structures, falling aggressively below 1.36563 and potentially testing 1.36052. The bearish structure remains intact, with continued selling pressure in the market.

At Rich Smart Finance, we remain vigilant and adaptive, closely monitoring these key indicators and market movements as we approach the core PCE data release.

[g86950332]

Weekly Market Insights and Currency Analysis for Traders – Rich Smart Finance

Welcome to our weekly market update brought to you by Rich Smart Finance. As we approach the conclusion of another trading week, let's delve into the latest market trends and currency analysis to empower your trading decisions.

Market Overview: The past week has been marked by a blend of economic data and geopolitical tensions influencing market sentiment. The US dollar witnessed a slowdown post the release of US jobless claims, fueling speculation about potential rate cuts. However, lingering concerns about labor market conditions continue to keep investors on edge.

US Economy: Recent data revealed that the US economy added 175,000 jobs in April, falling short of expectations. Concurrently, jobless claims rose, signaling potential challenges in the labor market. Despite this, corporate buybacks surged, providing a boost to equity markets.

Commodities: WTI crude oil and RBOB gasoline concluded the week on a higher note amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, notably in the Middle East. The Hamas-Israel conflict and disruptions to crude oil supplies have contributed to the elevation in oil prices.

Currency Analysis:

GOLD and SILVER: Both GOLD and SILVER have demonstrated bullish momentum, supported by robust volume.

DXY: The US dollar exhibited weakness, failing to breach crucial resistance levels. Further downside is anticipated if specific support levels are breached.

GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, and USDCAD: Each currency pair presents distinctive dynamics, with technical analysis suggesting potential price movements in the forthcoming sessions.

As we anticipate the upcoming trading week, it's imperative for traders to remain vigilant and adaptable. RichSmart Finance remains dedicated to providing insights and analysis to guide your trading strategies in today's dynamic market landscape.

Stay tuned for more updates and remember to trade wisely.

[auvoriaprime]

What Are the Most Important Details for Trading GBPUSD?

When trading GBP/USD (Great British Pound/United States Dollar), there are several important details to consider. Here are some key factors that can significantly impact GBP/USD trading:

Economic Indicators: Pay attention to economic indicators from both the UK and the US. This includes indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, interest rates, employment data, and consumer sentiment. These indicators can affect the value of each currency and, consequently, the GBP/USD exchange rate.

Monetary Policy: Keep an eye on the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Changes in interest rates, quantitative easing programs, or forward guidance can influence currency values and impact the GBP/USD pair.

Political Developments: Political events, such as general elections, referendums, and government policies, can have a significant impact on currency movements. Stay informed about major political developments in both the UK and the US and assess their potential effects on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

Brexit: Given the UK's departure from the European Union (EU), any news or updates related to Brexit negotiations, trade deals, or regulatory changes can affect the value of the British pound. Be aware of the latest developments and their potential impact on GBP/USD trading.

Market Sentiment: Sentiment and market psychology can influence the GBP/USD pair. Monitor market trends, investor sentiment, and news sentiment surrounding the British pound and US dollar. Factors like risk appetite, geopolitical tensions, and global economic conditions can sway market sentiment.

Technical Analysis: Utilize technical analysis tools and chart patterns to identify trends, support, and resistance levels, and potential entry and exit points. Technical analysis can help you make informed trading decisions and manage risk effectively.

Volatility and Liquidity: GBP/USD is one of the most actively traded currency pairs, characterized by high liquidity and volatility. Stay aware of major economic releases, central bank announcements, and unexpected news events that can trigger significant price movements.

Join Auvoria Prime today and learn how to trade Forex, and with GBDUSD!

Sign-up link:

[gambitaibot]

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Cable Bounces from Oversold Territory as UK Retail Sales Recover

GBP/USD PRICE, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS:

Cable Holding onto Asian Session Gains around 1.2350.

UK Retail Sales Rebound Following a Rain Affected March Figure.

RSI Entered Oversold Territory Supporting a Deeper Retracement.

The UK recorded a hot inflation print this week with hawkish repricing of the Bank of England’s (BoE) peak rate probabilities unable to arrest Cables slide as persistent US dollar strength continued. GBPUSD has enjoyed a decent bounce in the Asian session from lows around the 1.2300 mark, currently trading at 1.2340. Much like the rest of the week the question remains whether cable can hold onto its gains as the day progresses.

UK RETAIL SALES

Source: ONS, Retail sales, Great Britain: April 2023

*NOTE: The graph above shows the contributions to the 0.5% month-on-month rise in overall retail sales volumes (quantity bought) in April 2023.

US FACTORS AND EVENT RISK

The US dollar meanwhile which has largely been the driving force behind cables move continues to hold firm which should continue as long as a deal on the US debt ceiling remains unresolved. There has been some positive rhetoric but none that would suggest a deal is imminent with next week going to be key as the June 1 deadline approaches.

The day ahead will see focus shift to the all-important Core PCE data out of the US, which remains the Federal Reserves preferred gauge of inflation. This comes on the back of largely positive data out of the US yesterday with GDP Growth QoQ estimates beating forecast while initial and continuous jobless claims beat estimates as well. Another positive notch for the US on the labor front heading toward the June meeting.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS

On the daily timeframe GBPUSD has continued to tick lower toward the key 100-day MA resting around the 1.2280 handle. This morning’s bounce came as the pair entered oversold territory (14-Day RSI) hitting a high of around 1.2354.

Looking at the intraday potential for GBPUSD and the biggest worry remains the US factors mentioned above which could continue to cap any upside recovery. I do think we may find significant support and a potential bottom around the 100-day MA, but this would rest on the outcome of the PCE data. The range between 1.2360 and 1.2280 (100-day MA) could remain pivotal for intraday moves.

There is a possibility that we could see a continued recovery for the majority of the European session toward yesterday’s high around 1.2388 before a selloff heeding into the US session and data releases.

Key Intraday Levels to Keep an Eye Out For

Resistance levels:

1.2388

1.2448

1.2500

Key support levels:

1.2310

1.2280 (100-day MA)

1.2220

Source: TradingView

[tradingwave]

GBPUSD Reached The Blue Box And Rallied

In today’s blog, we take a look at how GBPUSD entered the blue box area as it completed a pullback and rallied afterwards

 As shown in the 1 hourly chart from July 19, 2021; GBPUSD rallied up from purple wave (a) lows, and completed the purple wave (b) at the peak on June 01, 2021. Within purple wave (b), we see a subdivision into 3 swings, labelled white a-b-c. White wave c unfolded as an ending diagonal.

Down from purple wave (b) peak, the pair shows four completed swings lower, pending the fifth swing to complete purple wave (c). The end of purple wave (c) simultaneously marks the end of green/minute wave x. Green wave x was expected to end somewhere within the blue box area, before the pair could rally for green wave y.

 The chart below is from July 30, 2021. In it, we see that indeed the pair traded lower into the blue box to complete purple wave (c), thus green wave x; before a sharp impulse to the upside unfolded as anticipated.

The sharp impulse is proposed to be in the micro (blue) degree, and appeared to have completed 5 swings higher for white/subminutte wave i within purple (a) of green y. In other words, green wave y is expected to unfold as a purple (a)-(b)-(c) zigzag.

 Currently, the pair is expected to correct lower in white wave ii before more upside can be seen. We would expect the pair to break above the peak or white wave i in order to confirm the next leg higher in white wave iii. Lest, it gives us a double correction or a larger correction lower in ii before rallying higher. We prefer the long side on this pair, and shall be looking for dips for more long positions.

 We offer multi-time frame analysis on 52 instruments, which are updated regularly during each trading day and on weekends. We also offer daily Live Trading Room, Live Technical Analysis Sessions.

 To join us and learn more about we see the market using New Elliott Wave Theory!!

Longevity in Trading Financial Markets

 In this post, we shall be looking at longevity in trading financial markets such as the forex, commodities, futures, stocks and similar markets. Whether you have been in the market for a week, month, year or even 10 years, this post could come in handy for you.

The blog looks at the importance of staying long (longevity) in the markets, and how that can be attained by following four, clear and simple steps.

  What is longevity in the markets, and why does it matter?

 The Oxford Dictionary of longevity is “long life, the fact of lasting a long time”. During the formative stages of a beginner trader, one is usually highly motivated and excited by the enormous opportunity presented to them, which has a huge potential for generating wealth.

Motivation and excitement can be a double-edged sword, which on the one hand make one to want to do learn how to trade with view to making money; while on the other hand could render one susceptible to the “demon” of instant gratification and possible low levels of endurance in the process of learning how to trade.

When one finds the learning process challenging, or the actual application of the lessons learned in trading petrifying, one could end up either incorrectly implementing the learned lessons and the strategies, or not implementing them at all.

It is especially during drawdown times that one needs to remain resolute, and soldier on in the journey of trading. Not easy right? I know!

It is thus very important to learn “tricks of the trade” with view to enhancing the probability of staying for a long time in the market, and making tons of money of course!

 How does one achieve longevity in trading financial markets?

Step 1: Find a trading system with proven winning edge

 As there are many trading systems and strategies, it is crucial to find one system that has a winning edge’ wherein the winning trades outnumber the losing trades in a given period of time. The entire learning process aims to produce an outcome where one finds a suitable system with a winning edge.

  Step 2: Manage your risk

 Trading financial markets naturally comes with the risk of loss of money which can be quite uncomfortable, frustrating and discouraging. Managing risk entails defining a level in the market where one decides to exit a losing trade.

This level is usually an integral part of the trading system that one adopts in step 1 above, and it is at this level where one knows they were wrong in their analysis of the market direction given a certain time period. The amount of risk is usually limited to 2% (per trade) of the total capital invested.

  Step 3: Trading psychology

This aspect of trading involves personality traits such as patience, resilience, greed, fear, confidence and such other traits. The previous two steps, if done properly; will enhance the positive traits of a trader’s psychology.

For instance, if one manages their risk properly, the trait of fear when trading becomes minimized. If one has a system that has a good winning edge, the trait of resilience during drawdown period is positively enhanced. And if on the other hand, one does not manage risk properly, fear could become the order of the day each time one takes a trade. I have found literature on trading psychology very helpful in this regard. Books such as “Bullet Proof Trader” by Steve Ward or “The Disciplined Trader” by Mark Douglas can be quite a good investment.

  Step 4: Commitment

Remain committed to steps 1 through 3 above!

As mentioned elsewhere in this document, motivation and excitement are transient and therefore short-lived. That’s where commitment is required.

  Tips for longevity in the markets

· Be patient with yourself during the learning process.

· Never stop learning

· Do not be an island, find trading mates

 Click here now for more at and learn more “How to Attain Longevity in Financial Markets” plus much more!!!trading financial

  EURCAD TO CONTINUE TRADING LOWER WITH SHORT TERM TARGETS AROUND 1.4450

From 31 July 20 EURCAD has been trading lower in what appears to be impulse 5 waves that’s is clearly visible on the below 4Hourly chart.

The pair traded lower ending wave 1 in green (Minute) degree with a leading diagonal at 1.542 before we say a 3 wave WXY correction that ended wave 2 of same degree at 1.578 on 22 Dec 20. From there EURCAD found sellers in a Strong 5 waves impulse proposed to be wave 3 of same degree that lasted almost 4 months with over 1000 points, and ended at 1.472 on 01 April 21 swing low.

The pair bounced higher again in 3 waves proposed to be wave 4 that ended 1.519 before it found sellers again. Now lets have a clear view on the 1Hourly chart below.

[capital-streetfx]

Technical Analysis Report Today | Forex News – 10 May 2021 | Capital Street Fx

Technical Analysis Report Today | Forex News – 10 May 2021 | Capital Street Fx

ASIAN MARKET:- Mainland Chinese stocks were down by the early morning. The Shanghai Composite was down by 0.31% to 3,408.86. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down about 0.51% to 28,490.75. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei average. Nikkei 225 is trading up 0.49 per cent at 29,502.63 on Monday , while the  Australian Index S&P / ASX 200 rose 0.95 per cent to 7,154.71. South Korea’s Kospi was up by1.66% to…

[mutange12]

GBPUSD Monday projection

Technical Analysis Overview: The GBP/USD pair has shown a mix of signals. While some indicators suggest a strong buy trend over the short term (like the 1 week rating), there’s also a noted neutral to bearish sentiment in other analyses. This indicates a potential for volatility or a consolidation phase. Sentiment from X Posts: There’s a varied sentiment among traders: Some posts suggest a…

[claramellor]

Dollar extends lower. GBPUSD above MAs again. EURUSD runs above 100 day MA

Dollar extends lower. GBPUSD above MAs again. EURUSD runs above 100 day MA

USDJPY falls toward 100 hour MA The USD has taken a moved to the downside after the ISM data. EURUSD: The EURUSD pushed back above its 100 day moving average and tested it 200 hour moving average of 1.20695. The high price just reached 1.2068. The 38.2% of the run lower from late Thursday’s high at 1.20569 and the 100 day MA at 1.20523 is now support as buyers take back more control. GBPUSD:…

[feedyourmind1031]

Currency Insights: Market Analysis by Axel Private Market

As we approach the core PCE data release this Friday, the market is showing signs of relief from the dollar's weakening trend. We are seeing gains across various sectors, including metals, crude, Brent oil, and equities, with the NASDAQ hitting record highs. Yields are also slowing down. Our primary focus remains on the core PCE data release, which will guide our market strategies and responses.

Gold

Gold has posted gains following the latest COT report. Traders have capitalized on the opportunity to enter trades and make small profits ahead of the PCE results. Currently, gold is trading above 2332.174 and is approaching a test of 2365.443.

Silver

In the previous market close, silver lacked the momentum and supply to drop below 29.900. The market has since rebounded aggressively to 30.938, bracing for the core PCE data release on Friday.

DXY (Dollar Index)

The dollar is tracking traders' sentiment ahead of the core PCE data release. If the PCE result is 0.30 or higher, the FED and policymakers might adopt a more hawkish stance, potentially limiting rate cuts to only one by year-end. A PCE result of 0.27 or lower could ease market pressures, allowing equities and metals to strengthen as the dollar stabilizes. Currently, the dollar is trading just below 104.607 after a strong rejection at 105.071.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has moved closer to 1.27038 as anticipated. We maintain our bullish outlook for this pair while awaiting further price action developments.

AUDUSD

Technically, the AUDUSD market indicates a bullish trend as structures hold up. We are monitoring whether 0.66541 will act as resistance or if the currency will break higher. Notably, there is a head and shoulders (SHS) pattern forming on the 1-hour timeframe.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD has broken above the 0.61408 range and continues to show bullish momentum on the technical charts. We expect this upward movement to persist unless the price action indicates otherwise.

EURUSD

EURUSD has returned within its range, trading above 1.08541 after failing to break below the trendline. We now anticipate the price to rise towards 1.08950, showing confidence in the established support.

USDJPY

Following the BoJ hearing, the Yen has gained strength and momentum, albeit slowly. Governor Uchida emphasized the aim to re-anchor inflation expectations despite challenges in estimating neutral interest rates accurately. With wages likely to continue rising and external pressures from potential US rate cuts, Japan faces mixed influences on its currency. We expect further market interventions for Yen pairs and await additional inflation data to gauge the economy's impact.

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc (CHF) has regained strength, winning against the dollar at 0.91580 and pushing the price lower towards 0.91329. The structure now shows a bullish sentiment, but we await further confirmation. The price is likely to hold above 0.91807 or potentially fail, which would influence our bias accordingly.

USDCAD

The USDCAD market has rejected a move towards key structures, falling aggressively below 1.36563 and potentially testing 1.36052. The bearish structure remains intact, with continued selling pressure in the market.

At Axel Private Market, we remain vigilant and adaptive, closely monitoring these key indicators and market movements as we approach the core PCE data release.

[g86950332]

Weekly Market Insights and Currency Analysis for Traders – Axel Private Market

Welcome to our weekly market update brought to you by Axel Private Market. As we approach the end of another trading week, let's delve into the latest market trends and currency analysis to help you make informed trading decisions.

Market Overview: In the past week, we've witnessed a mix of economic data and geopolitical tensions shaping market sentiment. The US dollar experienced a slowdown following the release of US jobless claims, prompting speculation about potential rate cuts. However, concerns about labor market conditions persist, keeping investors cautious.

US Economy: Recent data showed that the US economy added 175,000 jobs in April, falling short of expectations. Additionally, jobless claims rose, signaling potential challenges in the labor market. Despite this, corporate buybacks surged, buoying equity markets.

Commodities: WTI crude oil and RBOB gasoline closed higher amid escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. The Hamas-Israel conflict and disruptions to crude oil supplies have contributed to elevated oil prices.

Currency Analysis:

GOLD and SILVER: Both GOLD and SILVER have displayed bullish momentum, supported by strong volume.

DXY: The US dollar has shown weakness, failing to breach key resistance levels. Further downside is expected if specific support levels are breached.

GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, and USDCAD: Each currency pair presents unique dynamics, with technical analysis suggesting potential price movements in the upcoming sessions.

As we look ahead to the next trading week, it's crucial for traders to stay informed and adaptable. Axel Private Market remains committed to providing insights and analysis to guide your trading strategies in today's dynamic market environment.

Stay tuned for more updates and remember to trade wisely.

[immortalcapitalltd]

Forex Technical Analysis (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, BTCUSD, ETHUSD) 30 August 2021 - Analytics & Forecasts - 30 August 2021

Forex Technical Analysis (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, BTCUSD, ETHUSD) 30 August 2021 – Analytics & Forecasts – 30 August 2021

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, BTCUSD, ETHUSD and so on H1 Forex Technical Analysis + Prediction shared on YouTube. The turning point probability and trend probability were measured from Fractal Wave. Hence, to yield better performance, use this prediction together with Price Action Tools derived from Fractal Wave like: Support, Resistance, Fibonacci Ratio Analysis, Harmonic Pattern, Elliott Wave, X3…

[gambitaibot]

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Anticipation Builds Around BoE Announcement

POUND STERLING ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS

Halifax house price index slows for the first time in 2023!

Fed speakers will dominate the cable trading day.

GBP/USD prints new high but can it be sustained?

GBPUSD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The British pound briefly crept above the May 2022 swing high at 1.2667 to reach 1.2669 yesterday printing a fresh yearly high. Looking at money market pricing below, the probability for the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates by 25bps has now climbed to almost 100% — up from 83% on Friday. As mentioned in my analysis last week, no surprises are expected here but what is of more importance is the BoE’s messaging going forward. Hawks are jumping in and revising rate hikes to the upside (60bps by year end) but with the Federal Reserve looking to pause in its hiking cycle, the BoE may not want to be too aggressive in its messaging. I think the BoE will allow for data dependency to drive decision making but look out for growth and inflation forecasts as well. A final factor to consider is the vote split which revealed a 7–2 split in favor of a hike while the 2 dissenters preferred rates to remain on hold. We are likely to see a similar split, perhaps 6–3 but will any members opt for a rate cut?

Source: Refinitiv

Earlier this morning the UK’s Halifax housing report (see economic calendar below) printed the first decline for the year on a month-month basis. Halifax Bank’s mortgages director stated the following:

“The economy has proven to be resilient, with a robust labor market and consumer price inflation predicted to decelerate sharply in the coming months.”

“The economy has proven to be resilient, with a robust labor market and consumer price inflation predicted to decelerate sharply in the coming months.”

If this really is the beginning of a reduction in inflationary pressures, the BoE’s current market pricing may change drastically, hurting the pound in the short-term.

Later today, Fed speakers are back in focus after their obligatory blackout period and will be closely watched as to how they portray the recent US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data as well as their takes on tomorrow’s US CPI.

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Daily GBP/USD price action still tests the upper bound of the rising wedge chart pattern (black) with no real conviction from bulls to make a meaningful push higher. The next stop would be the June 2020 swing low at 1.2813. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) looks to be opposing the higher highs on GBP/USD and I still remain skewed towards a pullback lower. That being said, upcoming US CPI and the BoE announcement will dictate the short-term directional bias for the pair.

Key resistance levels:

1.2813 (June 2020)

1.2667

Wedge resistance

Key support levels:

1.2584

1.2500

Wedge support

1.2400

MIXED IG CLIENT SENTIMENT

IG Client Sentiment Data (IGCS) shows retail traders are currently net SHORT on GBP/USD with 66% of traders net short (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment but due to recent changes in long and short positioning we arrive at a short-term cautious disposition.

Contact and followWarrenon Twitter:@WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.