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mostlysignssomeportents · 4 years ago

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No one should be on the No-Fly List. There should not be a No-Fly List.

It's been a minute, and the past four years really raised the bar on presidential evil, but here's a thing you should remeber: George W Bush was a fucking terrible president and everything he did was terrible.

The War on Terror - the latest addition to America's pantheon of Forever Wars - leveraged a national trauma to strip away human rights and incinerate official accountability.

Though this was described as a tool for punishing "terrorists," the toolkit it handed to every law enforcement officer, from G-Men to school cops, was given a real workout.

The war on terror turned everyone with a badge into a puny martinet, able to violate the rights of marginalized and disfavored people without fear of any consequences, reversing decades of hard-won progress on civil and human rights.

The punishment the war on terror has meted out to women, LGBTQ+ people, BIPOC people, political progressives, racialized people, Black people, Muslim people, and anyone who looked crosseyed at a mall cop is limitless and endless.

GWB did some really awful shit, like creating offshore torture sites (not just Gitmo, a web of them, around the world), and starting a bogus war that has raged so long that there are adults fighting it today who weren't born when it began.

In the grand scheme of things, the No-Fly List isn't even in the top ten of garbage things for which we should forever curse GWB but it is still an utter piece of shit, an idiotic policy enforced by idiots to no good purpose at the cost of enormous human suffering.

The Identity Project, and its Papers, Please! website, have been documenting the No-Fly List's incoherent cruelty since its inception. Today, they posted an extensive article explaining how the list (really many lists) works.

https://papersplease.org/wp/2021/01/19/put-them-on-the-no-fly-list/

There's this thing that happens when you study corruption: you start with this complex, difficult system, and someone who understands it begins to explain it, and as they hold up each piece and say what it does and what it's called, you have a revelation:

Ohhhh, it's just bullshit.

I mean, go read up on how mortgage-backed securities work, or pharmacy benefits managers, or special purpose acquisition compaies, or cash bail. Really lean into it, pay attention. You'll get there.

The reason it doesn't make sense to lay people isn't that it's complicated. It doesn't make sense because it's fucking nonsense. The complexity is there to delay this realization.

That's the no-fly list. It's bullshit.

The Qanon-addled white-nationalist cult members who stormed the capitol last week shouldn't be on the no-fly list because there shouldn't be a no-fly list.

And if that's not good enough for you, try this one on: they shouldn't be on the no-fly list because if we lower the already rock-bottom standards for inclusion on that list, they're coming for the people you love next.

G-men and campus cops and TSA gropeaholics and thrice bailed out aviation monopolists and small town cops flush with civil forfeiture cash won't hesitate for an instant before putting the Wall of Moms and your whole middle school gay-straight alliance on the list.

Forever.

If there's one thing we should all have learned from the four year nightmare we've just barely survived, it's that being stampeded into taking away rights from people you don't like is an utter monkey's paw, and when the fingers curl, they're coming for you.

We need to do something about the violent, deranged cult that spent the summer showing up in battle-rattle to terrorize state lawmakers, culminating in the Jan 6 riot. We need a COUP Act to investigate the links between cops and Nazis.

https://twitter.com/actdottv/status/1351291227530924032

But what we positively do not need is to expand the power of the institutions that we have good reason to suspect are shot through with unhinged white nationalists so they have even more control over who can exercise the basic human right of going from one place to another.

Always remember: the No-Fly List is composed of people we're sure are too dangerous to be allowed on a plane - but who, inexplicably, we don't have enough evidence against to convict of any crime. In other words, it's an evidence-free witch-ducking stool in the cloud(s).

#pluralistic

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psychotherapyconsultants · 6 years ago

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15 Simple Ways to Simplify Your Life

Simplifying one’s life can seem complicated. It can feel overwhelming, especially if you own a lot of stuff and your calendar is crammed with commitments.

Where do you start? What the heck do you exactly do? What does simplifying even really look like?

At its core, simplifying is making more time for the things that truly matter to us, said Rachel Jonat, who writes about simplicity and minimalism on her website The Minimalist Mom. “That means realigning how you spend your time, money, energy and even the space in your home to reflect what’s really important to you.”

Simplifying leaves space for “creative thoughts, imagination and playfulness,” said KJ Landis, a life coach and creator of the Superior Self series.

And, thankfully, simplifying can be small and gradual, and well, simple. Below, you’ll find a variety of practical, totally doable suggestions.

Write down your reasons for simplifying your life. Delve deeper and think about why you’d like to simplify, said Courtney Carver, author of the blog Be More with Less, and the book Soulful Simplicity: How Living with Less Can Lead to So Much More.

What’s the point? How will your life and day to day improve?

For instance, maybe you’re in debt. Maybe you’re overwhelmed with all the stuff around your home, and can’t find what you need. Maybe you constantly feel stressed and overcommitted. Remind yourself of these big “whys” to help you keep simplifying.

Examine your time. Write out your ideal week, including your work schedule, commitments, chores, hobbies and downtime, said Jonat, author of several books, including her latest title The Joy of Doing Nothing. Next keep track of your time for a week. Then compare the two. “What are you spending time on that keeps you from the things you really want to do? How can you change that?” she said.

Say no to a few things. “A simpler life starts with setting boundaries around your time,” Jonat said. Saying no without any explanation is especially vital if you’re chronically overcommitted, she said.

Megan Murphy, founder of The Kindness Rocks Project, and author of A Pebble for Your Thoughts: How One Kindness Rock At the Right Moment Can Change Your Life, used to say yes to many things because she felt obligated. She used to say yes to gatherings that included friends of friends who regularly gossiped, and made her feel uncomfortable. She used to say yes to any opportunity without thinking about whether it aligned with her intentions. She noted “rather than saying ‘yes’ to things that you think you should do, begin to say ‘no” and honor the things you wish to do instead.”

Leave your wallet at home. This is particularly helpful if you tend to overspend or buy impulsively. Jonat suggested having just enough to get around, which might be a transit pass and $20. “Building that pause into your life, having to think about going home for your wallet and coming back out to buy something, is an easy way to curb your shopping habit.”

Meditate for 2 minutes. Meditation helps to simplify the mind and create calm, said Landis, author of four books, including Happy Healthy You: Your Total Wellness Toolkit for Renewing Body, Soul, and Mind. For example, she began meditating by closing her eyes and imagining the digits 1 to 10 floating by, and then reversing back to 1 several times, as slowly as possible.

Another practice, she said, is to focus on the breath, a candle or a sound, which “can allow a ‘shelf’ to open up inside where there is nothing on it.”

Discard duplicates. Carver suggested getting out a box, and filling it with any duplicates you have inside your home. Which might be anything from two sets of measuring cups to several copies of the same book or DVD.

“Once you fill the box, label it ‘Duplicates,’ and put it out of sight for 30 days. If you don’t need anything or don’t remember what was in the box, donate it.”

Create simple routines. Having to make many decisions can lead to overwhelm. This is when having simple routines—around behaviors such as eating and sleeping—can be especially powerful. As Jonat said, “If every Friday is pizza and a movie night, you have two fewer decisions to make each week.”

Setting simple routines also opens up “more time and energy to focus on the things that normally get ignored, like long lingering lunches, walks in nature (without a focus), conversations with no agendas,” said Tamsin Astor, PhD, a coach and author of the book Force of Habit: Unleash Your Power by Developing Great Habits. What can you create a routine around?

Pay attention to small moments. After selling her business, Murphy began paying attention to what brings her true joy. Which turned out to be the simple, small moments in her days: “Breathing in the salty air, searching for heart-shaped rocks along the shore, and uncovering the sense of peace felt only in solitude.”

Today, she uses her curiosity and wonder to focus on these kinds of moments. What simple moments can you point out and savor?

Schedule meaningful activities. Think about what is important to you, and put that on the calendar first for the entire week, if possible. For instance, if moving your body regularly is important to you, according to Astor, you might create this schedule: a swim on Mondays; weights on Tuesdays and Thursdays; a yoga class with a friend on Wednesdays; and a walk around your neighborhood on Saturday.

Have a clutter-free zone. “This area could be a kitchen table, your nightstand, a countertop or a drawer in your kitchen,” Carver said. “Use that clutter-free zone as inspiration to live with less.” That is, you might expand the zone a bit each day. One drawer might turn into a clutter-free dresser, which turns into a clutter-free bedroom.

Declutter monthly. Landis cleans out her closet and trinkets every month. She lets “only the most memorable items remain” (which helps her home remain a sanctuary). You might do the same, or pick another space that tends to get cluttered quickly, and declutter it monthly (e.g., your fridge, bathroom drawers, pantry).

Replace unhelpful habits with small actions. What habits aren’t serving or supporting you? What is making you overwhelmed and stressed? Replace these habits with healthy ones.

Astor shared these examples: Replace your evening glass of wine, social media scrolling or cigarette-smoking with a bath, walk around the block, or a book and cup of tea.

Get rid of 10 pieces of clothing you no longer wear. Or set a timer for 20 minutes, and see how much clothing you can toss in a donation bin. Or participate in Carver’s minimalist fashion challenge Project 333, which involves dressing with 33 items or less for 3 months.

Automate one repetitive task. Think about a task you do regularly, and consider if you can automate it. For instance, you might create a template for an email you often send to your colleagues or clients. You might sign up for auto-pay for your mortgage and water and electric bills.

Use tiny steps. Going slow and steady can create lasting change. For instance, Carver wanted to create a meaningful morning routine. These are the tiny steps she took to get there: Instead of pushing snooze another time, she did 5 minutes of yoga. A week later, she replaced another 5 minutes of snoozing with writing. The week after that, she added 5 minutes of meditating. For the next 5 weeks, every week, she added 1 minute to each activity.

Simplifying your life may sometimes require making difficult decisions and big changes. But often there are many things you can do that are small and simple. Which is critical when you’re already feeling harried and overwhelmed. So pick a tip that resonates with you, and go ahead, and get started.

from World of Psychology https://psychcentral.com/blog/15-simple-ways-to-simplify-your-life/

#World of Psychology

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mystlnewsonline · 7 years ago

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New Post has been published on https://www.stl.news/inman-announces-another-18-real-estate-companies-sponsoring-inman-connect-new-york-2018/59003/

Inman announces another 18 real estate companies sponsoring for Inman Connect New York 2018

TALLAHASEE, Fla./ December 31, 2017 (STLRealEstate.News) –Inman announced the next 18 companies that will be sponsoring Inman Connect New York, Jan. 22-26, 2018.

Inman Connect is a week-long event that will foster connections and big business deals among more than 4,000 real estate professionals. Featuring critical, inspiring keynotes, the latest industry driving trends and research, and experts from inside the industry and out on hand to interpret and make sense of it all, CEOs, tech entrepreneurs, marketing experts, top agents and brokers, and financial executives will come together to explore a future of opportunities.

“We have lined up the best sponsors for the best-ever Connect,” said Brad Inman, Publisher. “I’m excited to see how they help our attendees drive themselves and their business.”

For more information on Inman Connect sponsorship or exhibitor opportunities, please contact [email protected].

Sponsors will include: Platinum Sponsor Wells Fargo Home Mortgage wellsfargo.com/mortgage

Wells Fargo Home Mortgage is a retail mortgage lender, which provides home mortgage solutions. It offers construction and renovation financing, home buying, and refinancing solutions, as well as jumbo, adjustable-rate, and reverse mortgages. The company serves homeowners, homebuyers, and real estate.

Gold Sponsors

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices berkshirehathawayhs.com

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices remains one of the nation’s fastest-growing real estate brokerage networks with 43,500 agents and 1,350 offices named to the brand since its launch in fall 2013. The network, among the few organizations entrusted to use the world-renowned Berkshire Hathaway name, brings to the real estate market a definitive mark of trust, integrity, stability and longevity.

Commissions Inc. (CINC) commissionsinc.com

CINC is the leading provider of web-based real estate marketing and CRM software for elite agents and teams across North America. The CINC solution includes: a consumer website that integrates with local MLS data; a complete CRM platform that allows real estate agents to nurture clients and monitor their business; and access to three mobile apps.

Firepoint firepoint.net

Firepoint is made by and for real estate professionals. In real estate software, most CRMs seem more focused on what investors and developers wanted to create rather than what actual real estate agents need. Firepoint was started not to sell software but rather to solve real estate software problems.

Realtor.com

Realtor.com is the trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers, offering the most comprehensive source of for-sale properties, among competing national sites, and the information, tools and professional expertise to help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today helps make all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com is operated by News Corp subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS.

Bronze Sponsors

Chetu chetu.com

Chetu is a full-service software development provider with experience in real estate and property management technologies, including customer relationship management (CRM) systems, analytics platforms, marketing automation tools, plus mobile applications with virtual and augmented reality features. Chetu’s real estate developers have expertise integrating MLS and IDX data while adhering to all regulatory standards. For more information visit Chetu.com.

Contactually contactually.com/how-contactually-works/for-agents

Contactually is a relationship management platform that helps real estate professionals turn existing contacts into relationships that create results. Agents can generate more referrals and close deals faster with automated follow-up reminders, contact organization, effective email templates and much more. Contactually is the CRM that helps agents prioritize clients and leads to drive more business.

CoreLogic corelogic.com

CoreLogic is a leading property information, analytics and services provider. The company’s combined public, contributory and proprietary data sources include over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years. The company helps real estate professionals identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk.

GeoCV geocv.com

GeoCV is the only provider of virtual tours for via 3D-enabled smartphones. The Virtual Open House is an all-in-one solution for the full suite of real estate marketing visuals, delivering 3D tours, floor plans and photos at an affordable price, without sacrificing the highest quality. Agents can sell smarter while acquiring new business.

Matterport matterport.com

Matterport is changing the face of real estate marketing with it’s all-in-one marketing tool that wins listings and engages buyers. Their end-to-end media platform allows anyone to quickly, easily, and affordably create immersive virtual experiences from real-world properties, viewable right from a desktop, mobile browser, or VR headset. With Matterport provides 3D immersive tours, unlimited hi-res photography, virtual reality, teaser videos, floor plans, and more.

Nodalview nodalview.com

Nodalview is a unique platform that transforms smartphones into the ultimate toolkit for real estate agents to create high definition, perfectly exposed pictures, 8k 360° panoramas and quality videos. Nodalview leverages smartphone technology into a complete cutting edge visual marketing tool.

Onjax onjax.com

Onjax is a provider of superior technology and web marketing solutions for real estate businesses. The Onjax Real Estate Web Platform is an all-inclusive system encompassing a CMS real estate websites, and premium map-based IDX property search, along with the powerful and easy-to-use PureAgent CRM. Onjax is one real estate platform for the entire team.

RealKey realkey.com

RealKey is a transaction management platform for mortgage and real estate professionals. Leveraging modern technology, intuitive design, and extensive industry experience, RealKey has developed the simplest, most integrated, and accurate transaction management platform in the world. Their patented technology ensures that loan and real estate transactions are accurate, complete, and error free the first time. No more back-and-forth with underwriting, processing, transaction coordination, or compliance. RealKey allows agents to close more transactions in less time.

ReferralExchange referralexchange.com

ReferralExchange’s Referral Network creates great real estate experiences between real estate agents and customers. ReferralExchange matches clients outside of an area, price point or property type with three great agents, handles all paperwork/tracking, and pays a 25% referral fee at closing. They utilize a curated network of 23,000+ agents to ensure that clients are matched to agents who fit their specific needs.

Revaluate revaluate.com/inman

An Inman Innovator Award Finalist and a Swanepoel Top 20 Trendsetter, Revaluate researches, follows and analyzes prospects, telling top 10 agents, teams and brands in both real estate and mortgage who is most likely to move in the next 3-6 months.

SecureShare portal.secureshare.cloud/forms/realestate

The only program real estate agents need to go paperless. SecureShare provides unlimited cloud storage, e-signature and PDF markup so agents can execute transactions without printing, scanning or faxing. SecureShare is a one-stop solution to take real estate business paperless and save time and money.

Streak streak.com

Streak is the only CRM integrated entirely within Gmail/G Suite inbox. Real estate professionals from companies like Keller Williams, Coldwell Banker, and Engel & Volkers use Streak to manage their buyers, sellers, properties, and more. It’s as easy to use and setup as a Google Sheet, but has the power and flexibility of a fully featured CRM.

Tweak Cloud tweak.com

Tweak Cloud allows real estate agents to accelerate the production of print and digital marketing materials by empowering negotiators and their assistants to create marketing collateral in a web browser without complicated software or licences. Property details and images can be populated automatically in templates, creating savings of up to 70% on traditional design methods. Other features include full brand control and automated print routing with live reporting.

Inman Connect New York will take place at the New York Marriott Marquis from Jan. 22-26, 2018. The best and the brightest in real estate and technology are expected to attend. For information on how to receive a press pass, please contact [email protected].

_____

Source: news by Inman, distributed by PRNewswire.com on STL.News by St. Louis Media, LLC (PS)

#Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices #real estate professionals #STLRealEstate.News #top agents #Wells Fargo Home Mortgage

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garynsmith · 7 years ago

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Inman announces another 18 sponsors for ICNY18

http://ift.tt/2pXyuta

Inman announced the next 18 companies that will be sponsoring Inman Connect New York, Jan. 22-26, 2018.

“We have lined up the best sponsors for the best-ever Connect,” said Brad Inman, Publisher. “I’m excited to see how they help our attendees drive themselves and their business.”

For more information on Inman Connect sponsorship or exhibitor opportunities, please contact [email protected].

Sponsors will include:

Platinum Sponsor

Gold Sponsors

Firepoint has been in your shoes. We were agents like you. While looking for real estate software, it appeared that most CRMs seemed more focused on what investors and developers wanted to create rather than what an actual real estate agent needed. We didn’t start this to sell software, we started Firepoint to solve real estate software problems.

Realtor.com® is the trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers, offering the most comprehensive source of for-sale properties, among competing national sites, and the information, tools and professional expertise to help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today helps make all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com®.

Bronze Sponsors

Contactually is a relationship management platform that helps you turn existing contacts into relationships that create results. Generate more referrals and close deals faster with automated follow-up reminders, contact organization, effective email templates and much more. Contactually is the CRM that helps you prioritize clients and leads to drive more business.

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading property information, analytics and services provider. The company's combined public, contributory and proprietary data sources include over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years. The company helps clients identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. For more information visit www.corelogic.com.

GeoCV is the only provider of virtual tours via 3D-enabled smartphones. The Virtual Open House is an all-in-one solution for the full suite of real estate marketing visuals, delivering 3D Tours, Floor Plans and Photos at an affordable price, without sacrificing the highest quality. Sell smarter while acquiring new business!

Matterport is changing the face of property marketing with it's all-in-one marketing tool that wins listings and engages buyers. Our end-to-end media platform allows anyone to quickly, easily, and affordably create immersive virtual experiences from real-world properties, viewable right from a desktop, mobile browser, or VR headset. With Matterport you get 3D Immersive Tours, Unlimited Hi-Res Photography, Virtual Reality, Teaser Videos, Floor Plans, and more!

Onjax is a provider of superior technology and web marketing solutions for real estate businesses. The Onjax Real Estate Web Platform is an all-inclusive system encompassing our CMS real estate websites, our Premium Map-Based IDX Property Search, along with our powerful and easy-to-use PureAgent CRM. The one real estate platform for your entire team.

RealKey is a transaction management platform for Mortgage and Real Estate professionals. Leveraging modern technology, intuitive design, and extensive industry experience, we have developed the simplest, most integrated, and accurate transaction management platform in the world. Our patented technology ensures that your loan and real estate transaction is accurate, complete, and error free the first time! No more back-and-forth with underwriting, processing, transaction coordination, or compliance… with RealKey, you close more transactions in less time.

ReferralExchange’s Referral Network creates great real estate experiences between agents and customers. ReferralExchange matches clients outside of your area, price point or property type with three great agents, handles all paperwork/tracking, and pays a 25% referral fee at closing. We utilize a curated network of 23,000+ agents to ensure that clients are matched to agents who fit their specific needs.

The only program you need to go paperless. With SecureShare you get unlimited cloud storage, e-signature and PDF markup so you can execute transactions without printing, scanning or faxing starting at $9.99 per month. Simply put, SecureShare is a one-stop solution to take your Real Estate business paperless and save you time and money!

Tweak Cloud allows realtors to accelerate the production of print and digital marketing materials by empowering negotiators and their assistants to create marketing collateral in a web browser without complicated software or licences. Property details and images can be populated automatically in templates, creating savings of up to 70% on traditional design methods. Other features include full brand control and automated print routing with live reporting.

from Inman http://ift.tt/2EbUtzJ via IFTTT

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silviajburke · 8 years ago

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7 Federal Reserve Tools and Why They’re All Flawed

This post 7 Federal Reserve Tools and Why They’re All Flawed appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

[Ed. Note: Jim Rickards latest New York Times best seller, The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis (claim your free copy here) transcends politics and the media to prepare you for the next crisis]

In recent decades, the Fed has engaged in a series of policy interventions and market manipulations that have paradoxically left it more powerful even as those interventions left a trail of crashes, collapses and calamities.

The following is a survey of seven Federal Reserve tools in the Fed toolkit to stimulate the economy if recession or deflation gains the upper hand and why their toolkit is flawed.

Helicopter Money

The image of the Fed printing paper money, and dumping it from helicopters to consumers waiting below who scoop it up and start spending is a popular, but not very informative way to describe helicopter money. In reality, helicopter money is the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy in a way designed to provide stimulus to a weak economy and to fight deflation.

Helicopter money starts with larger deficits caused by higher government spending. This spending is considered to have a multiplier effect. For each dollar of spending, perhaps $1.50 of additional GDP is created since the recipients of the government spending turn around and spend that same money on additional goods and services. The U.S. Treasury finances these larger deficits by borrowing the money in the government bond market.

Normally this added borrowing might raise interest rates. The economic drag from higher rates could cancel out the stimulus of higher spending and render the entire program pointless.

This is where the Fed steps in. The Fed can buy the additional debt from the Treasury with freshly printed money. The Fed also promises to hold these newly purchased Treasury bonds on its balance sheet until maturity.

By printing money to neutralize the impact of more borrowing, the economy gets the benefit of higher spending, without the headwinds of higher interest rates. The result is mildly inflationary offsetting the feared deflation that would trigger helicopter money in the first place.

It’s a neat theory, but it’s full of holes.

The first problem is there may not be much of a multiplier at this stage of the U.S. expansion. The current expansion is 90 months old; quite long by historical standards. It has been a weak expansion, but an expansion nonetheless. The multiplier effect of government spending is strongest at the beginning of an expansion when the economy has more spare capacity in labor and capital.

At this point, the multiplier could actually be less than one. For every dollar of government spending, the economy might only get $0.95 of added GDP; not the best use of borrowed money.

The second problem with helicopter money is there is no assurance that citizens will actually spend the money the government is pushing into the economy. They are just as likely to pay down debt or save any additional income. This is the classic “liquidity trap.” This propensity to save rather than spend is a behavioral issue not easily affected by monetary or fiscal policy.

Finally, there is an invisible but real confidence boundary on the Fed’s balance sheet. After printing $4 trillion in response to the last financial crisis, how much more can the Fed print without risking confidence in the dollar itself? Modern monetary theorists and neo-Keynesians say there is no limit on Fed printing, yet history says otherwise.

Importantly, with so much U.S. government debt in foreign hands, a simple decision by foreign countries to become net sellers of U.S. Treasuries is enough to cause interest rates to rise thus slowing economic growth and increasing U.S. deficits at the same time. If such net selling accelerates, it could lead to a debt-deficit death spiral and a U.S. sovereign debt crisis of the type that have hit Greece and the Eurozone periphery in recent years.

In short, helicopter money, which both Trump and the Fed may desire, could have far less potency and far greater unintended negative consequences than either may expect.

Negative Real Rates Achieved Through Financial Repression

Another form of stimulus in the Fed’s toolkit is negative real interest rate policy achieved through financial repression.

Negative real rates exist when nominal interest rates are lower than the rate of inflation. A simple example would be a 2.5% yield on ten-year Treasury notes and inflation of 3.0%. That would produce a negative real interest rate of -0.5% (2.5% – 3% = -0.5%).

A negative real rate is an encouragement to borrow and invest because the borrower can repay the lender in cheaper dollars. Negative real rates also cause a fall in the exchange value of the dollar since capital will flow to other currencies with positive real returns.

A lower dollar is inflationary in itself because it increases the costs of imported goods. The U.S. has a persistent trade deficit and is a net importer so such increased costs feed through supply chains and result in higher prices.

The Fed can achieve negative real rates by using financial repression, also called fiscal dominance. The Fed can encourage inflation by keeping nominal short-term rates low, while negating higher long-term rates with bond purchases.

Negative real rates and financial repression have been used in the past to erode the real value of government bonds and reduce the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio over time. The period from 1946 to 1970 is a classic case during which the U.S. debt GDP ratio declined from 100% to 30% before gradually going up again (today the ratio is 104%).

The difficulty is that in the 1950s and 1960s the economy had an inflationary bias due to a rapidly growing consumer population bumping up against capacity constraints. Today the situation is the opposite with an aging demographic and numerous deflationary forces from debt deleveraging and technology.

The Fed may want to engineer a mild form of negative real rates using financial repression, but it is not clear the Fed can actually do so given deep-seated deflationary trends. The Fed’s failure to hit its inflation targets for the past four years suggests this particular stimulus tool may not be availing.

Interest Rate Cuts in a Recession

Although the nominal Fed funds target rate is low, just 0.50% currently, it is still positive. The Fed could announce two 0.25% rate cuts at two successive FOMC meetings if it so chose.

This is unlikely at the moment because the Fed has announced its intention to increase rates three times in 2017. However, each rate hike can be viewed as adding one bullet to the Fed’s revolver, giving the Fed more ammunition to fire if the U.S. economy goes into a recession.

Historically, it takes 300 to 400 basis points of rate cuts to steer the U.S. economy out of recession. Fed policy today can be understood as a desperate race to get the fed funds rate to 3.5% before the next recession hits without actually causing a recession in the process.

The Fed is unlikely to achieve its goal because it may take until the end of 2019 to raise rates that much and the economy is likely to go into recession before then. Still, the Fed will raise rates as much as it can, whenever it can in order to cut them again when a recession emerges.

Savers Save More When Facing Negative Interest Rates

Negative interest rates were first viewed as an extension of interest rate cuts after the policy rate hit zero. If a central bank had a policy rate of 1%, it could implement four 0.25% rate cuts before hitting zero. At that point, the central bank could cut rates further by pushing the policy rate into negative territory.

This can be done by paying a premium above par for non-interest earning Treasury bills that mature at par thereby “earning” a negative total return on the bills. The original view was that negative rates were just more of the same from the perspective of rate cuts.

However, empirical evidence from negative rate experiments in Japan and Europe suggests that negative interest rates are not just more of the same from a rate cut perspective. Negative rates are designed to stimulate lending and spending. Yet, certain behavioral reactions produce the opposite of the effects intended.

Savers facing negative rates actually save more to compensate for lost interest. Consumers interpret negative rates as a deflation signal and defer purchases in anticipation of lower prices. Negative rates actually produce more saving and deferred spending.

While negative interest rate policy remains in the Fed’s policy toolkit, there are high hurdles to its use based on unsatisfactory results to date.

Market Manipulation and QE

Forward guidance is the technical name for Fed propaganda or market manipulation through its choice of words in The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements, press conferences and speeches. It is used to signal future Fed policy without tying the Fed to specific dates and policy rates.

Forward guidance is one of the Fed’s favorite tools because it can be used ambiguously and can easily be reversed when the Fed wants to signal a change.

Forward guidance was used extensively in conjunction with quantitative easing (QE) from November 2008 to March 2015. The Fed executed three programs of QE called QE1, QE2 and QE3.

QE1 lasted from November 2008 to June 2010 and involved the purchase of $600 billion of mortgage-backed securities.

QE2 lasted from November 2010 to June 2011 and involved the purchase of $600 billion of mostly intermediate term Treasury securities.

QE3 started in September 2012, and was initially indefinite as to an end-date and the amounts to be purchased. QE3 involved both Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities. Actual purchases reached $80 billion per month until December 2013 when a “taper” program began that reduced purchases monthly until they reached zero on Oct. 29, 2014.

The Fed’s goal was to suppress rates so that market participants would bid up the price of riskier assets such as stocks, real estate, and corporate debt.

Many purchases of risky assets are made on a leveraged basis with funds borrowed in short-term money markets such as repurchase agreements or floating rate notes.

In order to work as intended, market participants needed some assurance that the Fed would not suddenly change course, and raise rates. This would cause huge losses on the leveraged portfolios. The Fed provided this assurance by forward guidance.

Initially the guidance was provided by specific dates and intentions such as keeping rates at zero for an “extended period,” or “for some time,” or “at least through 2015” etc. Later the forward guidance took the form of expressions of intent such as “patient” with regard to rate hikes.

The meaning of words like “patient” was supplied by Fed insiders to friendly reporters like Jon Hilsenrath at the Wall Street Journal who dutifully passed the information along to readers and the market as a whole.

It was understood that some time would elapse between the end of forward guidance and the beginning of a rate hike cycle. This was designed to allow market participants time to unwind leveraged bets or arrange longer-term financing in an orderly way. Any market participants who missed the signals or read the tea leaves incorrectly were on their own.

Forward guidance officially ended in March 2015 when the FOMC removed the word “patient” from their policy statements. The first rate hike took place nine months later in December 2015.

Forward guidance worked exactly as planned in the sense of channeling investors into stocks and real estate instead of artificially low yielding Treasury notes. But, it is not clear what if any impact this “portfolio channel effect” had on economic growth.

It is more likely that the combination of QE and forward guidance created asset bubbles in stocks and real estate that are in danger of bursting or that will need to be unwound in the next liquidity crisis.

Forward guidance can be used independently of QE as it was in the brief period from November 2014 (after the taper) until March 2015 (the end of forward guidance). This is likely to be the case in future.

If the economy begins to show signs of a recession in 2017, the Fed will not only pause in its rate hikes, but will use forward guidance to indicate it does not intend to resume rate hikes soon.

Any future use of forward guidance will be a strong indication that rate cuts may be coming next. In an economic downturn, the likely sequence of events will be a pause in rate hikes (signaled by forward guidance), then actual rate cuts, then more forward guidance signaling that rates will remain at zero, and then finally a new round of quantitative easing, QE4.

Whether negative rates are added to this monetary science experiment remains to be seen. If negative rates are used, they are likely to be presaged by their own unique form of forward guidance.

Using Currency Wars to Stimulate the Economy

Reducing the foreign exchange value of the dollar, also known as a currency war, is another means of trying to stimulate the U.S. economy. This can be done by coordinating rate policy with foreign central banks.

If the Fed pauses in its tightening cycle while the European Central Bank persists in its current taper of asset purchases, the net result is likely to be a decline in the USD/EUR cross-rate.

Currency wars can also be fought by direct market intervention, although this is rare and is usually reserved for cases of disorderly market movements in exchange rates.

The problem with currency wars is that any beneficial impact of exchange rate devaluation is strictly temporary as trading partners on the losing side tend to cheat and try to devalue their own currencies in a sequence known as beggar-thy-neighbor. The end result of currency wars is usually inflation in the form of higher import prices, rather than real growth through higher exports.

The Nuclear Option — Gold

The final weapon in the Fed’s arsenal is the financial equivalent of nuclear war. The Fed could instantly create inflation and achieve nominal if not real growth by massively devaluing the dollar when measured as a unit of gold.

This was last done in 1933–34 and was highly successful. Stocks rallied and commodity prices boomed in the middle of the Great Depression (1929–1940). This boom was not sustained because the Fed and Treasury prematurely tightened monetary policy and fiscal policy in 1937, which put the U.S. economy back into a severe technical recession from 1937–1938.

The Fed could use this nuclear option by coordinating with the Treasury to make a two-way market in gold using printed money. This would work exactly like quantitative easing, except the Fed would buy or sell gold instead of Treasury bonds.

The Fed would set an arbitrarily high fixed price for gold such as $5,000 per ounce. The Fed would make that price stick by offering to buy gold from any seller at $4,900 per ounce and selling gold to the market at $5,100 per ounce. This amounts to a 4% band or spread around the target price, a classic pegging technique.

Gold could be removed from or added to the U.S. hoard at West Point, NY, and money would be created by or destroyed by the Fed in order to make the target price stick.

If, for example, the price of gold was $1,300 per ounce before the operation, the effect would be to devalue the dollar from 1/1,300th of an ounce of gold to 1/5000th of an ounce of gold, a 75% devaluation of the dollar. This devaluation would not take place in isolation.

A 75% dollar devaluation in gold would signal devaluation in all other goods and services and result in $100 per ounce silver, $200 per barrel oil, etc.

This is obviously an extreme measure and would only be used in the face of strong persistent deflation.

Yet, the fact that that technique exists and has been used in the past is one reason to conclude that deflation will not in fact persist beyond certain limits because the Fed and Treasury have the ability to stop it as they did in 1933.

This review of 7 Federal Reserve tools in their toolkit consisting of interest rate hikes to fight inflation, and a litany of tools to fight deflation, shows that the Fed will be fully engaged in manipulating the U.S. economy for an indefinite period of time.

Kind regards,

Jim Rickards for The Daily Reckoning

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