#Federalist 45 (1788)

[alohapromisesforever]

First Principles: The Powers Delegated By the Proposed Constitution To the Federal Government Are Few and Defined. Those Which Are To Remain In the State Governments Are Numerous and Indefinite

““The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined. Those which are to remain in the State governments are numerous and indefinite.” – James Madison, Federalist 45, 1788 (For those who do not understand that the Federal government took powers to itself over the past decades that it did not have the Constitutional authority to take. This is why many…

[taraross-1787]

This Day in History: James Madison on State Power

On this day in 1788, James Madison defends the Constitution in an essay that would be published in newspapers around the country. Remember, the Constitution was just an idea back then. It wasn’t legally binding. Instead, the states had to consider whether to approve or reject the new form of government that had been proposed.

Would the new Constitution protect liberty?  Or would it create a government that was too strong and powerful? States and individuals debated the matter at length.

Madison was at the forefront of those who advocated for the Constitution. As such, he became a major contributor to a series of pro-Constitution essays that are today known as the Federalist Papers. Those written arguments present a picture of the country envisioned by our Founders.

The story continues here: https://www.taraross.com/post/tdih-federalist-45

[somethingusefulfromflorida]

1788: Washington, independent (1)

1792: Washington, independent (1)

1796: Adams, Federalist (2)

1800: Jefferson, Democratic-Republican (3)

1804: Jefferson, Democratic-Republican (3)

1808: Madison, Democratic-Republican (4)

1812: Madison, Democratic-Republican (4)

1816: Monroe, Democratic-Republican (5)

1820: Monroe, Democratic-Republican (5)

1824: Adams, National Republican* (6)

1828: Jackson, Democratic (7)

1832: Jackson, Democratic (7)

1836: Van Buren, Democratic (8)

1840: Harrison, Whig (9)

1844: Polk, Democratic (11)

1848: Taylor, Whig (12)

1852: Pierce, Democratic (14)

1856: Buchanan, Democratic (15)

1860: Lincoln, Republican (16)

1864: Lincoln, National Unionist (16)

1868: Grant, Republican (18)

1872: Grant, Republican (18)

1876: Hayes, Republican* (19)

1880: Garfield, Republican (20)

1884: Cleveland, Democratic (22)

1888: Harrison, Republican* (23)

1892: Cleveland, Democratic (24)

1896: McKinley, Republican (25)

1900: McKinley, Republican (25)

1904: Roosevelt, Republican (26)

1908: Taft, Republican (27)

1912: Wilson, Democratic (28)

1916: Wilson, Democratic (28)

1920: Harding, Republican (29)

1924: Coolidge, Republican (30)

1928: Hoover, Republican (31)

1932: Roosevelt, Democratic (32)

1936: Roosevelt, Democratic (32)

1940: Roosevelt, Democratic (32)

1944: Roosevelt, Democratic (32)

1948: Truman, Democratic (33)

1952: Eisenhower, Republican (34)

1956: Eisenhower, Republican (34)

1960: Kennedy, Democratic (35)

1964: Johnson, Democratic (36)

1968: Nixon, Republican (37)

1972: -Nixon-, Republican (37)

1976: Carter, Democratic (39)

1980: Reagan, Republican (40)

1984: Reagan, Republican (40)

1988: Bush, Republican (41)

1992: Clinton, Democratic (42)

1996: Clinton, Democratic (42)

2000: Bush, Republican* (43)

2004: Bush, Republican (43)

2008: Obama, Democratic (44)

2012: Obama, Democratic (44)

2016: Trump, Republican* (45)

2020: Biden, Democratic (46)

2024: TBD

Died in office

-Resigned-

Lost the popular vote*

X = election number

Y = president number

2024 will be the 60th election, and will either see the re-election of Joe Biden (46) or the election of a Republican challenger (47). There’s a very slim chance that Biden dies in office or chooses not to run, in which case it would either see the election of Harris (47) or a Republican challenger (48). Using the linear regression, x = 60 gives us y = 48.615455, rounding up to 49. I don’t think we’re actually going to go through three presidents by 2024, the line of best fit is just above the actual curve. Roosevelt (32) saw to that, creating a plateau on the otherwise linear graph. Biden has incumbency advantage; he’s more popular than Trump (he won a majority of the popular vote), and his middle-of-the-road policies are largely inoffensive and unambitious, so if he runs he will probably win. We haven’t had two incumbents lose in a row since Ford in 1976 and Carter in 1980, but Ford was never elected; we haven’t had two elected incumbents lose in a row since Pierce in 1852 and Buchanan in 1856. But Trump lost the popular vote, so he’s more like Benjamin Harrison in 1888; he served one term then lost a rematch in 1892 to Grover Cleveland’s second non-consecutive term. There is no historical analog for a one term president who lost the popular vote followed by a one term president who won it. Hayes 1876/Garfield 1880 is close, but Garfield served less than one term because he was assassinated.

Several presidents are missing from this list because they were never elected: Tyler (10), Fillmore (13), Johnson (17), Arthur (21), and Ford (38). All of these men assumed office after the death or resignation of their boss, and failed to win a term of their own. A handful appear on the list only once because they assumed office for their first partial term then won a full term of their own; Roosevelt (26), Coolidge (30), Truman (33), Johnson (36). This shows that there’s a 4/9 chance of winning re-election if you assumed the presidency; Kamala Harris would be at a slight disadvantage if Biden died or resigned