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heywoodsays · 2 years

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FIFA World Cup 2022: Round of 16 Predictions

It’s been a different kind of World Cup so far — and that’s an understatement. While one always expects some upsets and some thrilling finishes, we’ve had more than our fair share of surprises and drama.

Africa had its best ever group stage with 7 wins. The warm climate of Qatar may be a factor. Two African teams have advanced this year; none advanced in Russia 4 years ago. Europe is less represented in this knockout stage than it was last time around. And while South America sent five teams to the knockout stages at the 2014 tournament in Brazil, only two have survived this time.

Favorites Brazil and Argentina are through, despite losses to Cameroon and Saudi Arabia respectively. Defending champions France also have a blemish on their record, but are through nonetheless. Regular contenders such as Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, and England are also through.

But stalwarts like Germany, Belgium, and Uruguay could not manage to make it out of the group stage this year. Mexico failed to reach the knockout stages for the first time since 1978. Dark horse favorites Denmark couldn’t make an impact. Instead, surprise performances by Japan, Korea, and Morocco stole the show.

It’s truly a “world” tournament:

Europe - 8

South America - 2

Africa - 2

Asia - 2

CONCACAF - 1

Oceania - 1 (though they play in the Asian confederation)

Still, based on the matchups, I suspect the quarterfinals will end up looking as they normally do. Here’s how I think things will pan out…

🇳🇱 Netherlands vs. 🇺🇸 USA

History The Dutch and Americans have met five times, but never in a competitive match. Of the five friendlies, the Dutch have won four. But the U.S. won the most recent contest 4-3 in Amsterdam in 2015.

Qatar 2022 Neither of these teams have looked great so far. Despite going undefeated in the group stage, the Dutch have underperformed. They benefited from being in the easiest group and yet struggled against Ecuador. The Americans, on the other hand, fought their way through a group that included England and two other teams comparable to them in the FIFA world rankings. And while they demonstrated grit in their must-win match against Iran, they never quite managed to show enough quality to defeat a top-flight team.

But there are rumors about the flu making its way through the Dutch team. I don’t think this will be one of the more exciting matchups, but I fancy the Oranje to come away with a narrow win. The Netherlands is undefeated in their last 18 matches, winning 13 of them. The U.S. win against Iran is their only victory in their last 6 games. This U.S. team is still young and has very little World Cup experience. Such experience counts for something in the playoff rounds.

Prediction: 🇳🇱 NED 1 🇺🇸 USA 0

🇦🇷 Argentina vs. 🇦🇺 Australia

History These teams last played each other in a friendly 15 years ago. Australia has not defeated Argentina since 1988. In 7 contests, Argentina has 5W, 1D, 1L. This will be their first World Cup Finals meeting.

Qatar 2022 Kudos to the Socceroos for impressive wins over both Tunisia and dark horse favorites Denmark! They even came out strong in their opener against France, before finally bowing to them after a 4–1 thrashing.

I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen again against Argentina. While La Albiceleste revealed weaknesses in their stunning loss to Saudi Arabia, they showed their mettle in wins against Mexico and Poland. (The loss to the Saudis is their only defeat in their last 39 contests, dating back to 2019.) This team is now starting to click again and should be in top form to ward off any challenge from the pesky Aussies.

Prediction: 🇦🇷 ARG 3 🇦🇺 AUS 0

🇫🇷 France vs. 🇵🇱 Poland

History France has the historic edge in this contest, with 8W, 5D, 3L. Their only previous World Cup meeting was a thrilling third-place playoff in 1982 from which Poland emerged victorious, 3-2. But France has been the better team since then.

Qatar 2022 France’s B-team suffered a 1-0 loss to Tunisia, but have otherwise been perhaps the best squad of the tournament so far. Their midfield has been on point, and Mbappé has been shining. There were some questions about this team, given their Round of 16 exit from the Euros, and recent losses to Denmark and Croatia. But France have come to play and appear poised to make a good run at defending their title.

It’s hard to see Robert Lewandowski’s Poland overcoming the depth and skill of this French squad. While the French have shown vulnerabilities in their defense (they have conceded in each game), their offensive prowess is simply too much for Poland. Les Bleus should walk away with this one.

Prediction: 🇫🇷 FRA 2 🇵🇱 POL 0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England vs. 🇸🇳 Senegal

History These two nations have never met in international football. But England has an impressive record against African competition — undefeated in all 20 games they’ve played against African nations. By contrast, Senegal have a 6-5-5 record against European teams, most recently losing to the Dutch in the group stage.

Qatar 2022 The Three Lions looks difficult to beat. If Rashford, Kane, and Saya are on their game, and a spritely Foden can make an impact coming off the bench, they should be able to score a healthy amount. But their goalless draw against the USA was a sign that this team could be stifled if faced with an opponent who wants it enough.

Senegal is Africa’s highest-ranked team, but with their star striker (Sadio Mané) out for the tournament, their path forward is a little more challenging. I’m not sure the energy from their exciting win over Ecuador will be enough to overpower or withstand one of the best squads England has sent to the World Cup in years.

Prediction: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 ENG 3 🇸🇳 SEN 1

🇯🇵 Japan vs. 🇭🇷 Croatia

History Japan and Croatia have squared off three times before, with each team winning once and the other match in a draw. A 1997 match in Japan saw the home side victorious, but a 1998 World Cup meeting in France went to the Europeans. Their 2006 World Cup fixture in Germany ended goalless.

Qatar 2022 The Samurai Blue have been one of the most delightful surprises of this tournament. Their stunning upsets of both Spain and Germany en route to win their challenging group places them as one of the top teams of the tournament. But can their grit and determination be enough to push them past Luka Modrić and a skilled, scrappy Croatia team that were runners-up at the last World Cup?

Get ready for this to be one of the more exciting matches of the Round of 16. Both teams play with an urgency, especially when pushed. As soon as one team takes the lead, they’ll fight to tie it up. I might not usually expect Japan to put more than one into the Croatian net, but they’ve already done that against better teams. Sadly, I think their luck will run out against the more experienced Croatians.

Prediction: 🇯🇵 JPN 1 🇭🇷 CRO 1 (wins on penalties)

🇧🇷 Brazil vs. 🇰🇷 Korea Republic

History Brazil and South Korea have squared off in seven international matches, mostly friendlies. Korea has just one triumph, a 1-0 win in 1999. When the two teams faced off just six months ago, Brazil won 5-1. Neymar netted two in that game.

Qatar 2022 Like France and Portugal, Brazil rested their star players for their final group match and paid the price. But even Brazil’s reserves should have done better. A key issue for the team has been finishing. They need Neymar’s creativity to get their strikers in the best positions. There’s no reason the likes of Richarlison, Gabriel Jesus, Vini Jr., and Raphina shouldn’t be racking up goals.

The Koreans were able to best Portugal’s B-squad to secure their place in the Round of 16, knocking out Uruguay in the process. But other than that, their play has not provided much to suggest that they can beat The Seleção. It seems near impossible to score against Brazil’s top 11. They’ve recorded clean sheets in 22 of their last 32 games. In fact, they didn’t even surrender a shot on goal for the first two group stage matches. If Neymar is healthy, I think we should be prepared to see the Samba Kings break out at last.

Prediction: 🇧🇷 BRA 3 🇰🇷 KOR 0

🇲🇦 Morocco vs. 🇪🇸 Spain

History Spain and Morocco faced off in the group stages at the 2018 World Cup. That match ended in a 2-2 draw, with Spain netting an equalizer in the 90th minute. Their only two other meetings came in World Cup qualifying in 1961. Spain won both.

Qatar 2022 La Roja were the early stars of the tournament after their 7-0 thumping of Costa Rica. But a draw against a lackluster Germany and a loss to Japan have tempered expectations. Morocco, on the other hand, has been one of the most consistent teams at the tournament, even defeating the second-ranked Belgians.

But this is only Morocco’s second trip to the Round of 16, and first since 1986. This Spain team has valuable experience in high-stakes tournaments. They also have exciting young players like Gavi to bring a renewed energy as well. Looking at Spain’s pacing, control, and penchant for possession, it’s hard to see Morocco extending their brilliant run. But I wouldn’t count them out. This one could head to extra time or even penalties.

Prediction: 🇪🇸 ESP 3 🇲🇦 MAR 2

🇵🇹 Portugal vs. 🇨🇭 Switzerland

History One of two all-European battles in the Round of 16, there’s a lot of history between these two teams. The Swiss have a slight edge with 11W, 5D, 9L. The two have seen each other twice this year in the UEFA Nations League, with Portugal winning 4-0 in Lisbon and Switzerland winning 1-0 in Geneva.

Qatar 2022 Portugal joined France and Brazil as the only teams to secure their second-round berths after two games. They made several changes to their lineup against South Korea, ultimately costing them the match. But prior to that, the Portuguese looked strong — fighting off Ghana and controlling play against Uruguay.

Switzerland is much more comfortable with a slow, defensive style of play. They’re a team that ekes out 1-0 and 2-1 victories. (Their 3-2 win against Serbia was their first time scoring more than 2 goals in over a year.) But as Brazil was able to dictate the flow of their game against the Swiss, I suspect Portugal’s offense will do the same. But don’t count the Swiss out. They were still able to hold mighty Brazil to one goal, so Portugal will have their work cut out for them. I think Ronaldo and his team will prevail, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they had to go through extra time or penalties to do so.

Prediction: 🇵🇹 POR 2 🇨🇭 SUI 1

No upsets?

I realize that, in each case, I’ve predicted the favored team will win. While I really do think these are the most likely outcomes given how the teams have played so far and their histories, this is the World Cup, and there’s bound to be a surprise or two (or three). If an upset is to happen, here’s who I think is most likely to do it.

Most likely upsets

USA (16) over Netherlands (8)

Japan (24) over Croatia (12)

Morocco (22) over Spain (7)

Switzerland (15) over Portugal (9)

Senegal (18) over England (6)

Poland (26) over France (4)

Korea Rep (28) over Brazil (1)

Australia (38) over Argentina (3)

#World Cup 2022 #Qatar 2022 #FIFA #Round of 16 #Netherlands vs USA #Argentina vs Australia #France vs Poland #England vs Senegal #Japan vs Croatia #Brazil vs Korea Republic #Morocco vs Spain #Portugal vs Switzerland #sports

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