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starseedfxofficial · 8 days ago

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Dollar Flexes Muscle: DXY Surge and Fed Moves Explained Dollar Dominance: Why the Greenback is Flexing and What It Means for You Did someone say comeback? The U.S. dollar's been out here putting in the work, and it's showing. After three straight sessions in the red, the DXY (Dollar Index) has decided it's had enough and is bouncing back, out-muscling its peers and reminding everyone why it's the heavyweight champ. So, why the sudden flex from the dollar, and how should you, the savvy trader, adjust your game plan? Let's break down the latest moves with insights that’ll help you stay a step ahead. When the Dollar Lifts Weights, Everyone Notices Today, the U.S. dollar is flexing like it just came back from the gym—pumped up and unmissable. A notable uptick in U.S. bond yields has certainly played a role, like a shot of pre-workout for the USD, fueling its rally. The DXY is now hovering close to yesterday’s peak of 106.63, proving that sometimes a little pressure is all you need to come out swinging. What’s next? The market’s watching the latest Fed speeches—Barr, Cook, Bowman, and Collins are lined up to share their takes. Traders might want to keep an eye (or both) on their screens; Fed hints are like Easter eggs in your favorite video game—easy to miss but full of opportunities. Euro Gets Dragged Along—But Not in a Good Way The EUR/USD pair took a short-lived vacation above 1.06 overnight but is now back down, closer to where it started. It’s like those times you see a great restaurant but can’t get a reservation—it just couldn’t hold its ground. The Eurozone wage data for Q3 jumped to 5.42% from 3.54%, and you’d think that’d be a reason for some euro enthusiasm, right? Well, not quite. The market had other plans, and the impact was like adding sprinkles to a cake that nobody’s eating—nice, but not game-changing. The EUR/USD is currently hovering just above yesterday’s low at 1.0523, and with ECB heavyweights Lagarde and de Guindos set to speak later, you can bet traders are hoping for some direction beyond the typical central banker script. Yen’s Short-Lived Geopolitical Drama Yesterday, the yen had a little geopolitical boost—like a dramatic twist in a TV series that got everyone talking. Unfortunately, it didn’t last long. USD/JPY is back to its usual trend, resuming its rise since the U.S. election. It’s printed a fresh week-to-date peak of 155.84, reminding everyone that the yen's appeal seems fleeting these days. If you blinked, you probably missed the yen’s shine—and if you’re a trader, you know that timing is everything. Sometimes it's like trying to catch a frisbee in the dark; even when you think you’ve got it, it’s already gone. Pound's Inflation Surprise: Is Cable Up for the Challenge? GBP/USD had a bit of a moment too, with inflation metrics coming in hotter than expected—across the board. Cable bounced from below 1.27 to a peak of 1.2714. The year-over-year services print also hit right where the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) forecast it. If you’re keeping score at home, this makes for some compelling movement. Picture it like a springboard—the pound gets a little push, then rockets up. Now the question is: can it stay there, or will it come back down once the excitement fades? Antipodeans Get Left in the Cold It’s not all sunshine and roses for everyone, though. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are both on the back foot today, trimming recent gains. With few fresh macro drivers to stir the pot, the USD’s strength is leaving the Antipodeans in the dust. It's like showing up to a party where the host forgot the snacks—not much happening, so they’re hanging around but not making waves. The Quiet Chinese Yuan Move And finally, let’s talk about the yuan. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY midpoint at 7.1935, a bit lower than the expected 7.2386. To be honest, it’s kind of like hitting a slightly different note in a song that’s already pretty predictable. A subtle shift, sure, but hardly enough to get people dancing in the aisles. Yet, as traders know, these small moves can eventually lead to something bigger. It’s like the butterfly effect—except instead of a butterfly flapping its wings, it’s the PBoC adjusting the midpoint by a fraction. Takeaway Tactics for the Savvy Trader So, what can you do with all of this information? Let’s get tactical: - Ride the Dollar Wave: The dollar’s on a surge, driven by rising yields and a general safe-haven vibe. Consider how this influences pairs like EUR/USD or GBP/USD. Remember, when the big greenback flexes, the other currencies have to scramble to keep pace. - Watch the Fed Speak Like a Hawk: We’ve got multiple Federal Reserve speakers today, and while not every speech will be groundbreaking, the market’s ultra-sensitive right now. If you’re day trading, keep an ear out—a small slip of the tongue could translate into a big pip movement. - Eurozone Data Not Always What It Seems: The wage hike in the Eurozone didn’t help the euro much, did it? The takeaway? Not all good news is equal. Sometimes the market simply shrugs. Don’t get too excited just because the data looks rosy—dig deeper to understand what the market cares about. - Keep Your Eye on the Yen for Sudden Moves: Yesterday’s geopolitical lift for the yen was short-lived, but there’s always a chance for more. Keep a flexible mindset—and, as always, stay nimble. - Mind the Antipodeans: The AUD and NZD aren’t having a great time today, and with macro drivers on the light side, they could be at the mercy of USD movements. Opportunities might come for a bounce, but timing is crucial. What’s Next? The dollar is in the spotlight, and everyone else is along for the ride. This isn’t a time to be complacent—you’ve got the tools, you’ve got the news, now it’s about putting them into action. Want more insights, tools, and ways to navigate these turbulent waters? Don’t forget to check out our resources to stay sharp, stay informed, and most importantly, stay profitable. After all, in the world of Forex, the only constant is change, and the best traders are the ones who know how to adapt. Ready to uncover more game-changing insights? Tap into our exclusive economic indicators and latest news at StarseedFX Forex News Today. Plus, don't miss our in-depth Forex courses and community membership for those elite tactics you won't find anywhere else. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated Read the full article

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billehrman · 4 years ago

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The Other Side

Who would have thought that we would be talking about the potential for an overheating economy at this juncture? Well, we are. Investors have been caught on the wrong foot, holding record levels of cash and bonds while being underweight in equities.

What has changed so quickly? Vaccines that are safe and wildly effective beyond anyone's expectation are here. The only remaining question is how quickly they can be rolled out across America and the rest of the world. We know that there will be around 70 million doses available before year-end that will build exponentially as we move through the winter into spring. It is expected that there will be enough availability here such that all of us could be vaccinated before late spring and that the whole world could potentially be vaccinated before the end of 2021. While Pfizer and Moderna are first out of the gate, we expect to hear from J & J and several others in 2021 with potentially only one dose needed to be effective and/or oral delivery systems rather than shots. All of this is simply miraculous with tremendous investment implications as we return to life as we once lived. However, there will be some permanent changes that we will need to consider when investing. For instance, some work at home will be permanent, as will increased online utilization for shopping, business, and other services that were once done in-person.

While we expect a difficult few month ahead as the number of cases and deaths rise here and abroad, yet it is time to focus on the other side in just a few months when the weather warms, vaccines are rolled out, openings are accelerated, and pent-up demand is slowly filled. Life will partially revert to how it was before the virus but clearly with some permanent changes. Add to that multiple stimulus plans pushed by a Biden administration and finally an all-in Fed. We expect the Fed to remain all-in for at least for another 18-24 months until we think they will be on the horns of a dilemma. They will face inflation above 2% on a sustained basis with higher-than-expected unemployment, as corporations have learned to do more with less. What will they do?

The stock market has had a marvelous few weeks as optimism built regarding vaccines along with a Biden win. It is generally accepted that the economy will slow during the winter but then begin a rapid and sustainable recovery by the spring running at least through 2022, which is as far out as we are comfortable forecasting at this time. A great deal will hinge on fiscal, monetary, and trade policy decisions down the road.

We still believe that the markets have far more to run as we expect earnings and cash flow to be much stronger than the consensus for 2021 and 2022 as we see a meaningful increase in operating margins ahead as corporations have learned a lot from the pandemic, including a sharper focus on their strategic objectives. Quite frankly, we are amazed at how much operating progress has been made already with plans to do significantly more in the years ahead. We expect record operating margins, profits, and cash flow in 2021 and 2022 with along with an accommodative Fed trying to cap rates, will lead to higher stock prices. But not all stocks will perform. There will be a continued rotation out of the pandemic beneficiaries, especially the defensive stocks, to companies with positive operating leverage benefitting from an economic recovery here and abroad. You need to maintain some exposure to technology as the long-term fundamentals remain unparalleled, but price does determine value.

We no longer have to wonder about a potential vaccine. The news will only get better as we hear from other companies in the months ahead. Availability will only get more plentiful too. We are optimistic that distribution can be done in an orderly and effective way such that we all can get vaccinated before the summer here and worldwide before late fall. We and the world will be open for business once again!

The second most important thing to focus on as investors is a Biden administration. We have always admired Janet Yellen, so her selection as Treasury Secretary is fine by us. It supports our belief that Biden will work both sides of the aisle fostering deals to get things done, unlike Trump. Let's see if he is successful in brokering a more moderate, near-term stimulus bill at less than one trillion through Congress before year-end. That would be a positive sign and very good for all of us. It remains clear that Biden/Democrats have big spending proposals on the horizon that will support those most in need and have growth initiatives like for infrastructure. Clearly, Biden would need to control the Senate to pass extensive spending programs and tax hikes to pay for them, so we will have to wait to see the outcome of the Georgia run-off. One way or another, we expect many stimulus plans in 2021, which will only add fuel to an already recovering economy.

We are also closely watching Biden's foreign policy moves. While he will attempt to be a consensus builder on many major issues abroad, self-interest will dominate. For instance, the ECB, especially Germany, is unlikely to come down hard on China's policies as China is their largest market. Notwithstanding, we expect global trade to pick up meaningfully in 2021 and 2022, adding to world growth and higher inflation, especially as supply constraints exist. Look at copper prices.

The Fed is in a Catch-22 as it wants to see the economy fully recover and have gone out of their way to say that they will let the economy run hot with inflation running above 2% for a sustained period. While their policy was always to pre-empt unwanted inflationary pressures, that is not the case now, so what happens when/if inflation raises its unwelcome head for a sustained period? Remember that there are multiple trillions of excess liquidity sloshing around in the financial system looking for a home. Stocks and industrial commodities are our asset classes of choice. Continue to sell bonds.

Investment Conclusions

Global growth is on the cusp of a sharp acceleration as we get our arms around the pandemic. Just take a look at the rapid recovery in China since their cases/deaths peaked months ago. We fully expect a synchronist global recovery that will accelerate throughout 2021 into 2022. While interest rates have bottomed for the cycle, the market will increase further, driven by higher-than-expected earnings growth, dividend increases, corporate buybacks, and lots of M & A.

We have positioned our portfolios accordingly, emphasizing global industrials and capital goods, commodities, transportation, and special situations. Our technology and new norm beneficiaries, which was the source of our significance outperformance this year, has declined to a slightly less than a market weight as we diversified into new areas. And we own no bonds.

Our investment webinar will be held on Monday, December 7th, at 8:30 AM EST. You can join the webinar by entering https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 into your browser or calling +646 558 8656 and entering the password 9279217852.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect, and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset mix with risk controls; do independent research and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

917-951-4139

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marioswart-blog · 4 years ago

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But they have feelings

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marikyuu · 8 years ago

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I miss the PlayMindcrack server. :c I miss playing Missile Wars.

#Personal shet #Besides ECB #PMC was the only other server I played on #and actually played the minigames #ECB has also gone down as well #:'<#Another minigame I'll never get to play again #what even is today

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fxforecast-blog · 5 years ago

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Forex Today: Safe-haven Yen eases on trade optimism, Brexit hopes underpin Sterling

Hopes of progress in the US-China trade talks kept the safe-haven Japanese yen on the defensive and continued benefitting trade-sensitive Australian and the New Zealand Dollar. The British Pound remained well supported by renewed Brexit optimism and the prevalent US Dollar selling bias provided a modest lift to the shared currency during the Asian session on the last trading day of the week. The US President Donald Trump on Thursday characterized the first day of trade talks between the top US and Chinese negotiators as very good and said that he is planning to meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday. Adding to this, a White House official said that the talks had gone probably better than expected and raised the possibility of a currency agreement, as a part of partial trade deal this week. Meanwhile, the Sterling was the best-performing major currency on Thursday and posted its largest daily percentage gains since March after Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said that a Brexit deal could be clinched by the end of October. Varadkar said that they have identified a potential path forward on the Irish border issue and how to avoid a hard border, paving the way for the resumption of EU-UK Brexit talks on Friday. On the other hand, the Greenback failed to capitalize on the positive trade-related developments and remained depressed amid increasing odds of further monetary easing by the Fed. Thursday's softer US consumer inflation figures reinforced market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates again at its upcoming meeting on October 29-30 and kept exerting some downward pressure on the buck.

President Trump: China talks went very well today, will continue tomorrow President Donald Trump: We're going to see if we can make a deal with China President Trump to meet China's Liu He at 18:45 GMT - White House Brexit: Britain is proposing a "pared-down free trade agreement" to end the Brexit stalemate - Sky News Federal Reserve's Mester: US is likely to avoid a serious downturn

Key Focus Ahead

In absence of any major market-moving economic releases during the European session on Friday, the incoming headlines from a meeting between Finance Ministers from EU member states might influence the shared currency. Apart from this, Friday's key focus will be on the resumption of EU-UK Brexit talks, which should act as an exclusive driver of the market sentiment surrounding the British Pound. Later during the early North-American session, the release of Prelim UoM consumer sentiment index from the US and Canadian monthly employment details will be eyed for some impetus. This coupled with any fresh trade-related developments might further contribute towards producing some meaningful trading opportunities on Friday. EUR/USD: Key resistance scaled ahead of Draghi's speech, US-China trade talks pivotalThe European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi is scheduled to speak at 09:30 GMT. The outgoing President is expected to reiterate his dovish stance. The EUR, however, may show resilience, as the markets seem to have priced in the ECB's recent easing. Also, currently the focus is on the dovish Federal Reserve expectations and the US-China trade talks. GBP/USD consolidates overnight strong gains to 2-week tops, just below mid-1.2400sThe GBP/USD pair was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Friday and consolidated the overnight upsurge to over 250 pips, triggered by renewed hopes that the UK and the EU can reach a Brexit deal. The British Pound turned out to be the best-performing major currency on Thursday after Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said that a Brexit deal could be clinched by the end of October. USD/JPY adds 20 pips on President Trump's commentsThe demand for the anti-risk Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened on the US President Trump's positive trade-related talks, allowing USD/JPY to jump by more than 20 pips. President Trump, while speaking at a campaign rally in Minneapolis, said that trade talks with China are going well and that a deal could be reached. President Trump will be meeting Chinese Vice Premier Liu later today. Gold steady below $1500's as positive case from geopolitics firm-upGold is currently supported in the $1,490-$1,496 tight range in Asia, despite an informal confirmation from Trump, speaking at a campaign rally, boasting how well trade talks are going with China. Risk has rallied yet Gold is at a standstill ahead of highly anticipated high-level trade talks later today in Washington when Trump and Vice Premier Lui finally meet.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

#currency forex online trading #capital forex #forexmarket #corporate forex #forexsignals

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calacuspr · 3 years ago

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Calacus Weekly Hit & Miss – Maria Andrejczyk & Yorkshire CCC

Every Monday we look at the best and worst communicators in the sports world from the previous week.

HIT - MARIA ANDREJCZYK

Winning an Olympic medal is the pinnacle for most athletes, particularly those in track and field events for whom the Olympic Games is the ultimate prize.

Polish javelin thrower Maria Andrejczyk came close at Rio 2016 when she finished fourth with a best attempt of 64.78, missing a place on the podium by a margin of just 0.02cm.

In 2019, her career took a back seat when she underwent surgery after being diagnosed with an osteoma, a benign bone tumour.

Remarkably, she fought back and after surgery, she was able to restart training for the Olympic Games in 2019 and won the silver medal at Tokyo 2020 with a throw of 64.61 metres.

Maria later said that she wanted to put the medal to good use and so sought a worthy cause and told Polish television: “The true value of a medal always remains in the heart. A medal is only an object, but it can be of great value to others. This silver can save lives, instead of collecting dust in a closet. That is why I decided to auction it to help sick children.”

Via a Facebook fundraiser, she soon identified a young boy named Miloszek Malysa, who has a heart defect, who needs life-saving surgery.

"I didn't spend long thinking about this, it was the first fundraiser I came across and I knew it was the right one," she said.

"He already has a head start from Kubus – a boy who didn't make it in time but whose amazing parents decided to pass on the funds they collected…And in this way, I also want to help. It's for him that I am auctioning my Olympic silver medal.”

According to Małysa's mother, Monika, there were no longer any viable options to help the boy in their home country, Poland, with their last hope being an operation in Stanford, California.

After starting the auction off at 200,000 zloty ($51,000), Maria announced that Żabka, a Polish supermarket chain, won the auction with a bid of $125,000.

"It's with the greatest pleasure that I give to you, Żabka, my medal which for me is a symbol of struggle, faith and the pursuit of dreams despite the many challenges," she added.

"I hope for you it will be a symbol of the life of which we fought for together."

Zabka then announced that they would return the medal to Maria.

"We were moved by the beautiful and extremely noble gesture of our Olympian," it wrote on Facebook.

"Therefore, we decided to support the collection of funds for the sick Miłoszek. We also decided that the silver medal from Tokyo will remain with Mrs. Maria, who showed how great she is."

The money raised will allow Małysa to get the necessary surgery at Stanford University Medical Center and underlines yet again how the sport of sport can change lives and how sports stars can be role models, making a positive difference to society.

MISS – YORKSHIRE CCC

Yorkshire County cricket Club have not done themselves any favours following the conclusion of a year-long independent investigation after former player Azeem Rafiq accused them or racism.

Rafiq, a former captain both of England’s Under-19s and Yorkshire’s Twenty20 side, first spoke publicly about his experiences at the club last September and claimed that "institutional racism" left him close to taking his own life.

Last November, after he first gave evidence to the panel appointed by Yorkshire to investigate his allegations, and two members of the panel stood down to act instead as witnesses, Rafiq’s lawyer spoke of her “serious concerns about the initial handling of Azeem’s complaint and the people appointed to be involved in that process”.

The 100-page report upholds many of Rafiq’s allegations – but when it will be made public, and how much of it will be redacted, remains uncertain while the ECB wrote to the club last week to ask for a copy of the findings.

Yorkshire have offered him their "profound apologies" after "several of the allegations" were upheld but Rafiq was understandably frustrated.

He said: "A year of pain, a year of trying to get people to listen, a year of giving people an opportunity to do the right thing and we end up with a statement that turns racism into inappropriate behaviour."

“We’ve waited a year for this report and they are still trying to bury it,” Rafiq told ESPNcricinfo.

“The ECB’s own anti-discrimination code states that any alleged breach must be investigated and dealt with in a ‘timely’ fashion. Well, it’s been more than a year and no one has been held accountable and nothing has changed.”

Given the gravity of the investigation, Yorkshire should have been complete transparent about the findings and done everything to address Rafiq’s concerns once the report was finalised.

The club said in a statement that the scope of the investigation went beyond solely examining Rafiq's allegations, also considering whether they were institutionally racist.

"The investigation has been in depth and far from easy. Sadly, historically, Azeem was the victim of inappropriate behaviour."

Rafiq responded: "To try and say that these are historical things, yes there are things that are 10 years ago but predominantly most of my allegations relate to people that are still there in leadership positions.

"It's like saying 'we're going to punch you, knock you down and then pick you back up'. To be honest I'm absolutely sick and tired.

"I'm sick and tired of giving these people, the game, Yorkshire Cricket Club, the ECB, everyone, an opportunity to the detriment of myself. The damage that this last 12 months has caused me… I don't know when I will actually know that."

The speed at which Yorkshire have dealt with the complaints and their approach to dealing with them does not suggest that they understand the seriousness of the allegations or the damage that the situation has done to their reputation.

The ECB Chairman, Ian Watmore, then demanded that Yorkshire deliver a copy of the report to the governing body. “We respect the independent process behind the review, and the club’s legal responsibilities to all parties. We also understand the frustration at the length of time this investigation has taken.

“Now that the club has a full copy of the report, we have today written to Yorkshire to formally request a copy, together with a timeline for publication.

“It has taken considerable courage for Azeem Rafiq to speak out, and it is right that his experiences should have been thoroughly investigated. We now look forward to receiving a copy of the report promptly to enable us to fulfil our role as the ultimate regulator of the game.”

Clearly there is still work to do, especially as some of those who Rafiq complained about remain at the club.

He added: “To try and tone racism down to inappropriate behaviour ... straight away for me, I find it really difficult to understand what they think they are doing. At the end of it [the statement] there is some sort of apology, but it is spoilt by the words that are used to try and minimise what my allegations were.

“I want to know which of my allegations have not been upheld. I am very comfortable, I have a lot of proof to back up the things that I am saying. I wouldn’t think twice about making sure people see that proof because I am not having, for any second of the day, a statement that turns my sufferings of over a decade into ‘inappropriate behaviour’.

“Most of my allegations are about people who are currently at the club in leadership positions so to try and say these are historic allegations from a long time ago — yes there are some things on there that go back to the start of my career, but the majority of them are about people who are still there and from during my second spell at the club.

“I have got a message for them: it isn’t going away, I am not going away. If they really want to deal with this properly, the start of it is accountability. I think the chief executive, the director of cricket, everyone who was in that room when I said it, and the inclusion and diversity manager whose front room I sat in and cried my eyes out, I think they need to go. It’s as simple as that.

“The patience is gone, it’s completely gone. I am not going to put myself through any more mental turmoil. It is time for this to be dealt with properly.”

#Tokyo Olympic Games #Tokyo 2020 #IOC #ECB #racism in sport #Yorkshire CCC #Yorkshire cricket #Azeem Rafiq #Maria Andrejczyk #Olympic javelin #Zabka

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billehrman · 5 years ago

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Responding to Change, Again!

The financial markets continued to rally big time last week as global tensions eased with the United States and China making meaningful conciliatory gestures.

Specifically, Trump postponed the imposition of 5% extra tariffs on Chinese goods by two weeks to mid-October so that China could celebrate its October 1National Day without a fresh escalation in tensions. China responded by making substantial agricultural purchases and delaying added tariffs on many U.S imports until mid-December. China also announced a huge list of U.S. imports that would be exempted from tariffs. In addition, there were comments from both sides that there could be a narrower deal now followed by subsequent deals down the line. Maybe both sides finally recognize the pitfalls to their economies if the trade conflict escalates out of control. Remember that Trump wants to get re-elected next year while China wants to succeed on Made in China 2025.

None of this went unnoticed by the financial markets. Stocks continued to climb, bond prices fell as the yield curve steepened, the dollar fell, and industrial commodity prices rose while precious metals fell reflecting reduced global tensions. Underneath the hood there was huge rotation in the stock market out of defensive names into more economically sensitive ones that were selling at recession level valuations. Fortunately, we began to shift the composition of our portfolios 10 days ago adding some financials, capital goods/industrials and commodity companies while reducing some of our more defensive holding including gold stocks.

While it is impossible to be certain if there is an ��all clear” at this point as we live in a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) environment, we must act and react accordingly as the cards turn up one way or another. And we hedge. We have made four major shifts in the composition of our portfolios over the last year dictated by events: the Fed over tightening last October; the Fed capitulating in December; trade tensions ratcheting up big time late spring; and now. Paix et Prospérité has outperformed the indices (especially the hedge fund inde) over this period and over our career as we respond to change quickly. As our tag line states, we review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; analyze of our asset mix and risk controls; do independent fundamental research and invest accordingly. Right now, the wind remains to our back as more liquidity is being provided by the monetary authorities than is needed in the real economy thus boosting the value of risk assets.

Remember that another round of global monetary ease has just begun: China cut the bank reserve ratio freeing up $126 billion of added bank liquidity; the ECB cut its target rate to minus 0.5% and reintroduced a program to buy more eurozone debt; the BOJ may cut again next week or wait until its next meeting to see the effects of the proposed retail tax hike October 1 on its economy; and we expect the Fed to cut the funds rate by an additional 0.25 points on September 18.

Let’s review some of the key data points reported last week that support or detract from our view that the U.S markets remain undervalued and are preferred over other markets until there is more certainty on trade and/or major fiscal/ regulatory policy changes are actually passed in key overseas economies.

The United States

The majority of economic data reported last week supports that the U.S economy remains in great shape led by the consumer combined with huge fiscal stimulus. Just read some of the following stats which serve to underline the strength of the U.S consumer: the index of consumer sentiment rose to 92.0 in September, current economic conditions rose to 106.9 and the index of consumer expectations increased to 82.4. Wow! It was also just reported that August retail sales advanced more than expected rising 0.4% from the prior month, led by motor vehicles and on-line purchases, after an upward revised 0.8% increase in July. In the first week of September, initial unemployment claims fell to only 204,000, an indication of continued employment strength. The U.S. budget gap widened to more than $1 trillion dollars in the first eleven months of the fiscal year, up 19% from a year ago, as government spending rose 7% while receipts increased only 3%. Don’t forget that the most recent two-year budget deal will expand the deficit by several hundred billion providing additional stimulus to the domestic economy.

It was also reported that core CPI and PPI accelerated slightly in August with core CPI, excluding food and energy, up 2.4% from a year ago and core PPI, also excluding food and energy, up 2.3% from August 2018. Ironically, inflation expectations moved lower in August. Manufacturing data reported last week support continued weakness as inventories are rising faster than sales and capital spending remains constrained

Despite rising inflationary pressures and the recent steepening in the yield curve, we still expect the Fed to cut rates by an additional 0.25 point on September 18. If not for trade issues and real weakness overseas, we would vote against lowering rates further. After all, our economy is doing just fine. And we expect Trump to do whatever is necessary, including reaching some interim/partial trade deals and cutting taxes on the middle/lower classes, to boost the U.S economy and stock market in 2020 before the Presidential election. China

We have not changed our view that China needs a trade deal more than the United States. We mentioned last week that exports, even in dollar terms despite the weak yuan, fell for the fourth consecutive month in August. Since the trade war began a year ago, China has cut taxes, lowered bank reserve requirements, weakened its currency and sharply increased fiscal stimulus especially on infrastructure projects. Notwithstanding all of these moves, their economy continues to slow, and companies are shifting their supply chains out of China as fast as humanly possible. None of this has gone unnoticed by the government and may explain some of their recent conciliatory moves on trade delaying some tariffs, removing some products from the tariff list including soybeans and pork and finally announcing major purchases of agricultural products.

We believe that the government wants to make a deal with Trump knowing full well that Trump needs a deal to get reelected and that the Democrats may even be more difficult to negotiate if elected than Trump. We would only consider investing in Chinese consumer companies at this time.

Eurozone/England

The ECB did exactly what was anticipated last week lowering its key interest rate and launching a program to buy additional bonds. Big deal if there is no demand for money. Industrial production has continued to decline, exports are weak and capital spending has slowed to a halt. We can only hope that Christine Lagarde, when she becomes head of the ECB in November, can convince the finance ministers to change their debt rules that currently limit spending. Draghi has tried but unsuccessfully.

We remain very pessimistic on the outlook for the Eurozone. We do not see added fiscal stimulus soon; we do not see needed regulatory reforms; we do not see trade deals with the U.S.; and we see Brexit on the horizon. Why invest here?

Japan

Japan remains on the cusp of raising its retail sales tax to 10% on October 1. Second quarter growth slowed to 1.3%, weaker than anticipated, and the third quarter growth started on an even weaker note as machinery orders slowed dramatically. Here again, we do not see how it would help its economy if the BOJ cut rates further from a negative 0.1% rate and increased its debt buyback program. And how can the government increase fiscal stimulus with its current debt load to GNP? Japan is really stuck between a rock and hard place captive to global trade conflicts and the inability to raise domestic spending. Why invest here?

Conclusions

While we are hopeful that a trade ceasefire can be reached, there can be no certainty so we remain open minded and are willing to change if events dictate. Clearly there were some concessions made on both sides last week which were meaningful, but a real trade deal is anything than certain. We believe that both sides are trying to find a middle ground and will hopefully take baby steps to achieve a series of trade deals that encompass both the trade imbalance and IP.

What we know for sure is that all monetary bodies are extremely accommodative, creating more liquidity in the system than is needed by the real economy. Clearly this helps all risk assets. The Fed is next on deck to cut rates this week. We continue to believe that our 10- and 30- year bond yields are too low viewed against the continued strength of our economy with inflationary pressures increasing somewhat. We were pleased to see that over $170 billion of corporate debt has been refinanced in just the last two weeks significantly reducing interest costs, lengthening terms, and boosting profits/cash flow. Finally, the U.S government is considering issuing 50+year bonds next year. Great news!

Despite the recent rise in the market over the last three weeks, we continue to believe that it is undervalued selling at slightly above 17 times prospective earnings with the 10- year treasury yielding 1.9% and the 30-year treasury yielding 2.3% with bank capital/liquidity ratios so high. Isn’t it amazing how quickly the pundits changed their view over the last few weeks? Fortunately, we began to shift the composition of our portfolios two weeks ago focusing on a change in tone from both China and the United States, continued dovish words out of all monetary bodies and finally comments heard on corporate conference calls. The untold story is how well corporate America is performing despite a VUCA environment.

The bottom line is that the wind continues to our back for investing as we are able find great companies with superior managements, winning strategies, rising volume, profits, cash flow, and free cash flow selling well beneath intrinsic value. Here again, look at Buffett’s bond yield v.s earnings yield matrix. Pretty straight forward decision for investors.

We began shifting the composition a few weeks ago away from defensive stocks which were over owned selling at historically high multiples to more economically sensitive stocks selling at recession multiples generating huge free cash flow with dividend yield well above even the 30-year treasury bond. Many of these investments provide multiple ways to win like UTX mentioned last. We maintained our exposure to technology, cable with content, retail like HD and TGT, telecommunications, airlines and many special situations. We added banks, capital goods/industrials, industrial commodities and machinery. We own no bonds and are flat the dollar.

We are looking forward to our inaugural “Investment Committee” webinar tomorrow, September 16 from 8:30 am – 9:15 am EST. We will begin the webinar with a review of the global investment environment and after our 15-minute presentation, we will open up the call for your questions. You can join the webinar by typing the following in your browser: https://zoom.us/j/9179217852. To ensure a better experience you may wish to download the free Zoom software from the Zoom download center onto your computer for the best possible experience: https://zoom.us/download

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; analyze your asset mix with risk controls; do independent research and…

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

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espnsoccer · 5 years ago

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The year dictator Robert Mugabe and a death threat wrecked Nasser Hussain's World Cup dream [ad_1] Beset by illness, diminished by injuries and one Test down against resurgent opponents, England’s cricketers were entitled to feel a little beleaguered as they wandered through the corridors of The Cullinan hotel here last week. If it felt as if they were under siege at their city centre base, though, Nasser Hussain can put their current situation into perspective.The former England skipper still suppresses a shudder when he talks about The Cullinan. ‘That damned Cullinan hotel’, he called it in his autobiography, Playing With Fire, because it was there on the eve of the 2003 World Cup that he found himself at the centre of one of the biggest crises to have afflicted English cricket in the modern era.England were due to play against Zimbabwe in Harare in their opening game of the tournament that February but Hussain and others had become increasingly concerned about reports of widespread human rights abuses perpetrated by the regime of the dictator, Robert Mugabe. Against a background of widespread food and water shortages, there were calls for England to boycott the fixture. Nasser Hussain during the World Cup defeat to India. England went out in the group stageAt the time, comparisons were drawn with the game the England football team played in Berlin in 1938 when all the players in a line-up that included Stanley Matthews gave the Nazi salute before the match. It is an image that still has the power to shock. Hussain and others did not want to be on the wrong side of history this time.Hussain and his team spent several days holed up in the gilded cage of The Cullinan as the affair quickly turned into a political and diplomatic morass. South Africa were keen for the fixture to be fulfilled because they wanted Zimbabwe’s support for their bid to host the 2010 football World Cup. The ICC were desperate for England to travel to Harare for the sake of the tournament.Hussain and his team were left in a quandary. They spent most of their time at The Cullinan debating the issue among themselves, listening to entreaties from the then ICC chief executive Malcolm Speed and from the ECB, who were also keen for the players to travel so they would avoid sanctions from the ICC and who were telling Hussain the moral argument was irrelevant.‘The bloke who was really winding me up was Speed,’ Hussain said. ‘I told him he should come and sit in some of our meetings. Some of it didn’t seem fair: asking Jimmy Anderson, aged whatever, who had just come out of Burnley, to try and make his mind up about politics in Zimbabwe and Mugabe.’ Hussain thought it was unfair the likes of Jimmy Anderson had make his mind up about politics At one stage, Hussain was led into a side room to meet the Zimbabwean players, Andy Flower and Henry Olonga, who had been smuggled into the hotel after their black armband protests in their opening game against Namibia. ‘Those are two very brave men,’ England’s then coach Duncan Fletcher told Hussain after the meeting.Other teams were staying at The Cullinan, too. Hussain remembers a conversation with Muttiah Muralitharan in the breakfast room where the Sri Lankan expressed surprise at England’s reluctance to play in Harare. ‘I didn’t feel like explaining our position over my toast and Vegemite,’ Hussain said.At the height of the deliberations, England received a letter from a group called the Sons and Daughters of Zimbabwe. ‘Come to Harare and you will die,’ it read. ‘And how safe are your families back in the UK? Even if you survive, there are foreign groups who are prepared to hunt you and your families down for as long as it takes, and they will do that in your very own country.’The letter was a decisive factor for some members of the team and in the end, England said they were boycotting the game for security reasons. They forfeited the fixture and, after defeats to India and Australia, they were knocked out of the tournament at the group stage. Hussain were caught out by an affair which turned into a political and diplomatic morassLast week, as England went through their final nets session before the second Test here, Hussain sat in the empty North Stand at Newlands and thought back to those fraught discussions and the conflict that raged between ideological objections to playing in Zimbabwe and his responsibility to players who saw the World Cup as the pinnacle of their careers.‘Even then, I was thinking how would history judge us and judge me,’ he said. ‘Looking back at what Mugabe has done to the country and how that country has gone and recently when it was all discussed again after he died, I felt pleased by the decision we took.‘Even though we fudged it and hid behind security a little bit, my motive was always pretty much “I don’t want to lead an England cricket team in Zimbabwe”. It was because of what the regime stood for and what I had seen and because of speaking to Olonga and Flower. It didn’t sit comfortably with me fulfilling that fixture.‘I also, as a captain, had a responsibility to other people in that room like Nick Knight. We had a pretty good white ball side then. It wasn’t like this side but it was okay and that was their chance, that was their World Cup and that was their one chance. I owed it to them as well that they didn’t look back with regret about missing that chance. Some of them still do. I’m not going to name names but some of them look back and think “that was our chance to have a really good World Cup and we blew it”. England received a letter from a group called the Sons and Daughters of Zimbabwe‘It’s not about me but I have never looked back with regret. Some people doubt the decision we took but I think we did the right thing. At times, I wonder whether we should have gone and taken more of a stand. Maybe that could have been me wearing a black armband in support for them if they were wearing it. I hid behind security in the end. Once you get a letter like that, if you’re a young lad, you are very worried and you are thinking of your family.‘The whole time we were at The Cullinan, it felt like we were under siege... holed up for hour after hour because we swayed one way then the other. And I felt I was under siege personally. I would go from one meeting to another, all trying to pull you in various directions.‘It is part of your job as captain that you have these responsibilities. It is not just tossing a coin and putting a few slips in. You are an ambassador for your country and when you take that job you have to realise that things like this do occur. When they do, you have to show some kind of leadership.’ https://espnsoccer.co/?feed_id=54125 https%3A%2F%2Fespnsoccer.co%2Fthe-year-dictator-robert-mugabe-and-a-death-threat-wrecked-nasser-hussains-world-cup-dream%2F

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therapybg · 5 years ago

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The Fall of the Emerald City

There are a number of different impressions on the work of L. Frank Baum in the The Wizard of Oz. You may know that between the book, the stage play and the muslcal versions are lots of multi-dimensional elements. Knowledge "The yellow brick road is a symbol for knowledge: it is a rabbit hole that takes you to wisdom and, which is shaped as a spiral, becoming wider and wider as you go along on it. Dorothy takes the pointed road, but she soon discovers that the yellow brick road splits into more directions." https://lievarts.com/the-psychology-of-philosophy-an-analysis-of-the-wizard-of-oz-1939/ It is this fragmenting of persepctives which makes it useful for the MK Ultra spooks, politics and mythic narrative, imagery and vivid colors ... Political "Taylor also claimed a sort of iconography for the cyclone: it was used in the 1890s as a metaphor for a political revolution that would transform the drab country into a land of color and unlimited prosperity. It was also used by editorial cartoonists of the 1890s to represent political upheaval." (The Storm) "The 1902 stage adaptation mentioned, by name, President Theodore Roosevelt and other political celebrities. For example, the Tin Woodman wonders what he would do if he ran out of oil. "You wouldn't be as badly off as John D. Rockefeller", the Scarecrow responds, "He'd lose six thousand dollars a minute if that happened."" Subversion " Good Witch Glinda" used an innocent, ignorant patsy (Dorothy) to overthrow both her own sister witch (Witch of the West) and the Wizard of Oz, leaving herself as undisputed master of all four corners of Oz" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_interpretations_of_The_Wonderful_Wizard_of_Oz FragmentationFragmenting personalities, creating mirrors, reorienting characteristics, taking a fable and by turns moving it into multiple independent structures, to be called up at will. Useful toolkit when aided by psychotropic drugs and emotional torture. But, I digress......the cyclone that carried Dorothy to the Land of Oz represents the economic and political upheaval, the yellow brick road stands for the gold standard, and the silver shoes Dorothy inherits from the Wicked Witch of the East represents the pro-silver movement. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_interpretations_of_The_Wonderful_Wizard_of_Oz Allegory "Quentin Taylor, for example, claimed that many of the events and characters of the book resemble the actual political personalities, events and ideas of the 1890s. Dorothy—naïve, young and simple—represents the American people. She is Everyman, led astray and seeking the way back home." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_interpretations_of_The_Wonderful_Wizard_of_Oz Music and Emotion The song "over the rainbow," the character of Judy Garland and the three other main characters are iconic elements of popular culture. The same fantasyscape echoes Alice in Wonderland and Charley and the Chocolate factory, a sense of hyper - reality that is intensely colorful, hence memorable (see it's use as a mind control device).

Suggestion If we move the "plotlines"to the current day, where do we see the Emerald City? Who are the "Wizards" of Oz behind the curtain, beside the throne? In an intel sense it's Comey, Clapper, Obama and Hillary directing their events behind the scenes. Why does Hillary Clinton appear so often in the color green? That one was a trick question, I know the answer to that one and I think you do too. Green represents everlasting evil, she is the high priest (Wizard). In the banking sense it's vipers, but a rabble of vipers, rather than a cohesive enitity. They were a gutless rabble even in 2007-2008 when all thier pieces were in play, but people never saw thru it at the time. Their media is rapidly deflating as we go to print. All of their channels, megaphones and toyboys are in the shitter. Note my use of suggestive imagery :) #Don'tForgetoFlush

Plotlines But, let's say the cabal do destroy Seattle (The Emerald City). The need to pin it on a patsy. They can't claim credit directly, it is to be used for another purpose. What have they waiting in the wings? At the beginning of the plot Dorothy kills a witch by dropping a house on her head. Just on a simple level let's look at "housing drop kills"as a motif. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3011960/china-showing-signs-similar-japanese-housing-bubble-led-its Script Having grown up in a country where a housing bubble was used to transfer our national wealth to the "troika" (the cowardly lion, tinman and scarecrow of IMF, EU and ECB), I'm aware of the technique, but they've used it already in the USA? "Fool me twice, shame on you." GWB It will not work with property developer in the White House. They might want to bring in a financial crash, but Trump has them stymied on that too, the economy will not implode if a city explodes. He already wants them to collapse, so in that sense they play into his hand and pass over direct control to Him. Discount that one in the short term (you don't have to, I would).

They need a massive event to bring in the NWO bullshit. What would a mass killing by bombing achieve currently(remember they never anticipated Trump's multiple successes, he is a major curve ball)? In the current moment, I don't know (it's still behind the curtain). I do know how they used 911, attacking arab countries in plain sight. That game is already spent too, so what exactly is left? I think they're in checkmate actually. Me The only short term value is killing lots of people, but politically they've been destroyed, financially they're waning, manpower is way down (if you can't pay scumbags, they won't work for you), the terror stuff is gone now the police are doing police work. On the media side we've got them on the run. Christianity is popping up all over the place destroying their secular defeatism. So whatever they want to bring in is not going to work (in this moment). My best guess is they pull something smaller, to "save face" with their global crew of scum and pull an "abort." Of course, we can't work on that basis (...that bad people won't do bad things), we need to face the facts at hand. If there is a massive event, they get to call in the UN following an Obama EO. That would trigger something alright, uniting already pissed off patriots. It looks like the old civil war gambit (again the republicans win). For that, they'd need to plant the bombing on a Trumpkin. It seems a stretch, nobody I know would believe it. It would be hard to pin it on Putin, so China is the fallguy, but that would simply unite both countries and they lose by default. We've already had that before as well. Their media assets are pretty much out of credibility at this time. So it's 5th and down deepstate. The "real" Lion has his boot on your neck.

https://twitter.com/ginnylourn/status/1190772435462823936 Forces of Good and Evil One last thing to note. God is already here this time round. " “We dare not harm this little girl," he said to them, "for she is protected by the Power of Good, and that is greater than the Power of Evil. All we can do is carry her to the castle of the Wicked Witch and leave her there.” ― L. Frank Baum, The Wonderful Wizard of Oz The witch is dead (in the water) https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/1993810-the-wonderful-wizard-of-oz?page=2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_interpretations_of_The_Wonderful_Wizard_of_Oz https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wizard_of_Oz_(1939_film)#/media/File:Wizard_of_Oz_lobby_card.jpg https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3011960/china-showing-signs-similar-japanese-housing-bubble-led-its https://lievarts.com/the-psychology-of-philosophy-an-analysis-of-the-wizard-of-oz-1939/ https://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/Project+Monarch (Monarch) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_MKUltra (MKUltra) http://kommoncents.blogspot.com/2015/05/mk-ultra-laurel-canyon-and-birth-of.html (Laurel Canyon) https://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?id=504 https://americanhistory.si.edu/blog/populism-oz https://illuminatimovies.net/wizard-oz/ Read the full article

#city #Green #Lines #Money #people #Politics #road

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its-veso · 5 years ago

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Will EUR/USD hit the lowest since 2017? It is on the edge

EUR/USD has been falling toward the lowest levels in two years.

Trade headlines and euro-zone data dominate trading today.

Friday’s four-hour chart is showing oversold conditions for EUR/USD.

Hard data has been outweighing hardline views from the European Central Bank – and this sends EUR/USD[1] close to the cliff.

Germany has reported a plunge of 2.2% in Retail Sales in July – more than double the 1% slide – and on top of a downward revision for June’s data. Consumption has been keeping the German economy up amid a manufacturing slump – but this motor is stuttering as well. So far, the government in Berlin has been unkeen to intervene and stimulate the economy.

See New German government needed to spend and lift the euro[2]

The data outweigh hawkish comments from Klaas Knot, the Dutch member of the ECB[3]. Knot pushed back against calls on the bank to resume its bond-buying scheme and said that markets may have gone too far in expectations for stimulus. The Dutchman joined his German counterpart, Jens Weidmann – who also rejected “acting for the sake of acting.” Another German member, Sabine Lautenschlaeger, echoed her colleagues’ words by saying it is much too early for a huge stimulus package.”

However, ECB President Mario Draghi and several other colleagues want looser monetary policy – and may get their way.

Trade calm for now

Currency markets have not only ignored Knot’s comments but also the optimism that stock markets express over the US-Sino trade war. On Thursday, President Donald Trump touted talks between the world’s largest economies – but neither side has confirmed they actually took place.

China has called for calm and focusing on removing tariffs rather than enacting new ones. Beijing has hinted that it would refrain from immediate retaliation to new US levies due out on Sunday, September 1.

However, barring any surprise, Washington is set to slap new duties and China will – even if not immediately – respond with counter-measures that they had already prepared. News from both countries and especially tweets from Trump may rock markets later today.

EUR/USD has been under pressure also due to this calm – the rise in US yields has propped up the dollar.

A busy end to the month

The economic calendar[4] features additional market-moving events. Preliminary Euro-zone inflation figures stand out. Both headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI are projected to stand at 1% year on year. However, initial CPI figures from Germany have missed expectations and this may push the all-European numbers lower.

See EU Inflation Preview: ECB’s aggressive stimulus coming and nothing can change that[5]

Inflation numbers also stand out in the US with the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge – Core Personal Consumption Expenditure for July. Despite the acceleration of the parallel Core CPI measure for August from 2.1% to 2.2%, Core PCE is projected to remain unchanged at 1.6%.

See US PCE Price Index preview: A brief history of inflation targets[6]

It is essential to note that today is the last trading day of the month and some money managers may rush to adjust their portfolios, triggering high volatility.

Looking into the weekend, there is another significant event apart from the trade tariffs – the German states of Saxony and Brandenburg hold regional elections. The far-right AfD is expected to make gains, eroding support from both the CDU and the SPD – the coalition partners at the national level. – weakening the central government in the continent’s largest economy.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has been under pressure since losing the uptrend support line and it is suffering from downside momentum on the four-hour chart. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flirting with 30 – indicating oversold conditions – and implying a temporary bounce.

The 2019 low of 1.1027 is critical support. It is followed by the psychologically important number of 1.1000, and then by 1.0960, which was a support line in 2017. Further down, 1.0900 and 1.0810 are noteworthy.

Resistance awaits at last week’s low of 1.1050. It is followed by 1.1090, which was a swing low on Thursday, and by 1.1115, which capped EUR/USD this week and also in the previous one.

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs[7]

References

^ EUR/USD (www.fxstreet.com)

^ New German government needed to spend and lift the euro (www.fxstreet.com)

^ ECB (www.fxstreet.com)

^ economic calendar (www.fxstreet.com)

^ EU Inflation Preview: ECB’s aggressive stimulus coming and nothing can change that (www.fxstreet.com)

^ US PCE Price Index preview: A brief history of inflation targets (www.fxstreet.com)

^ Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs (www.forexcrunch.com)

from Forex Crunch http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ForexCrunch/~3/luTQS0ou1FE/

#Forex News #Forex Crunch

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chloe-jayde · 6 years ago

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Why the Yuan Could Break 7 ... or 6 ... or 8

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/why-the-yuan-could-break-7-or-6-or-8

Why the Yuan Could Break 7 ... or 6 ... or 8

(Bloomberg Opinion) — Don’t sweat the line-in-the-sand stuff. China’s currency will probably weaken beyond 7 per U.S. dollar because economic conditions warrant it and the policy response encourages it. Even in China, fundamentals can’t be ignored indefinitely.

Despite the parlor game among some market participants about the desire or ability of the People’s Bank of China to keep the yuan above that level, it lacks long-term perspective: China’s growth is slowing and the exchange rate ultimately will reflect that.

As the economy slackens, officials have been easing fiscal and monetary policy. In these circumstances, it’s natural for a currency to soften, as it has in the past year, with a drop approaching 8% versus the dollar. This cooling expansion reflects trends underway long before President Donald Trump took office. The era of double-digit growth is behind China: Its workforce is receding; and authorities have been trying to crack down on excess lending and the debt it racks up. Tariffs imposed by the White House are a further squeeze and sanctions against technology firms have been eroding confidence. I doubt the PBOC is much interested in expending too much more capital fighting this trend. Massaging it? Yes. Making sure things don’t get wild and crazy? You bet.

Since China ended the yuan’s peg to the dollar in 2005, the currency has moved up and down, albeit with the central bank’s blessing. The exchange rate roughly responds to the same kind of economic and financial pressures as other major currencies. Sure, Beijing will nip and tuck monetary policy, prevent capital flight and prevent too much financial dislocation. Verbal broadsides against speculators of the kind delivered over the weekend by Guo Shuqing, the head of China’s banking and insurance regulator, are part of the tool kit. It will be about the velocity of the move below 7 and its timing, not the level itself.

This isn’t to trivialize the issues at stake. The Chinese state plays a much bigger role in commerce and markets than in Europe or Japan.(1) A freely traded yuan, in the manner of the euro or yen, is a pipe dream for now. (Even for these currencies, big, round numbers have come and gone. In Japan, 100 yen per dollar was once the line in the sand, and I remember when $1.20 per euro, and even $1.40, was a big deal.)

Fretting about how Trump might respond is also fruitless: China will get abuse whatever it does. Being branded a currency manipulator in the Treasury’s semi-annual report is hardly more consequential than tariffs and punitive steps against Huawei Technologies Co.

When I sent a Bloomberg News headline on July 21, 2005 that China ended its peg, people were so caught up in its prospects for appreciating that they overlooked the fact it could weaken, too. The mantra from the U.S. and its allies, as well as many investors, was that flexibility is good because China can respond more easily to shifts in its economy.

Flexibility, in truth, was code for the yuan moving only one way: stronger. In theory, that would chip away at the competitive advantage of Chinese industry, though officials were loath to say so explicitly. Now, almost a decade and a half later, flexibility means letting the yuan weaken.

China was right then to go with the flow, albeit with some fits and starts. It would be right now, too. Flexibility covers all manner of sins.

(1) Japan used to intervene frequently in the market to cushion swings in the yen, but has been largely absent the past decade. For most of the euro’s life,ECB action has been virtually non-existent.

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#6 #7 #8 #break #Yuan

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jettadarkwynd · 6 years ago

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Why the Yuan Could Break 7 ... or 6 ... or 8

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/why-the-yuan-could-break-7-or-6-or-8

Why the Yuan Could Break 7 ... or 6 ... or 8

China was right then to go with the flow, albeit with some fits and starts. It would be right now, too. Flexibility covers all manner of sins.

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#6 #7 #8 #break #Yuan

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cute1dfacts · 6 years ago

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Why the Yuan Could Break 7 ... or 6 ... or 8

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/why-the-yuan-could-break-7-or-6-or-8

Why the Yuan Could Break 7 ... or 6 ... or 8

China was right then to go with the flow, albeit with some fits and starts. It would be right now, too. Flexibility covers all manner of sins.

Read More https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/why-the-yuan-could-break-7-or-6-or-8

#6 #7 #8 #break #Yuan

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breakbit · 6 years ago

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Why the Yuan Could Break 7 ... or 6 ... or 8

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/why-the-yuan-could-break-7-or-6-or-8

Why the Yuan Could Break 7 ... or 6 ... or 8

China was right then to go with the flow, albeit with some fits and starts. It would be right now, too. Flexibility covers all manner of sins.

Read More https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/why-the-yuan-could-break-7-or-6-or-8

#6 #7 #8 #break #Yuan

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billehrman · 6 years ago

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Buffett and Munger Are Licking Their Chops

The financial markets have been under immense pressure ever since Trump announced that he would be raising tariffs to 25% on the initial $250 billion of Chinese exports to the U.S. on May 10th while also threatening to impose 25% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese exports by the end of June unless substantive movement was made in trade negotiations. His administration then threw down the gauntlet by blacklisting Huawei from dealing with our technology companies threatening China 2025. Trump went all in.

The simple truth is that no one knows what the eventual outcome will be to the trade conflict so traders run for cover as the pundits/experts remind us all throughout the day how bad things could get: The sky is falling! As you would guess, cash levels have gone through the roof; investor sentiment has plummeted and even investors are frozen despite historically cheap valuations. Markets hate uncertainty! Bearishness is everywhere which is consistent with market bottoms, not tops. Our market remains undervalued… we see no recession, we see a friendly Fed and we buy great companies with rising earnings, cash flow/ free cash flow with above market dividend yields (far above 10-year treasury yields) and large share repurchase programs.

We think Buffett and Munger must be licking their chops right about now as the earnings yield on stocks as an asset class has further widened its gap to bond yields.

We also know that one tweet could turn things around. So, what to do? While we spent a lot of time over the last few weeks putting the trade war in perspective as exports from China are a tiny sliver of our economy and theirs too, we recognize that it is newsy to embellish the worst-case scenarios which we deem unlikely. We are bombarded all day about the downside risks of the trade war without discussing any of the long-term positives. Do you think that Buffett and Munger listen to CNBC?

We are most concerned about the near-term uncertainties/disruptions all of this creates for consumers and businesses around the world. Clearly companies will accelerate shifting their supply chains and may already have begun buying as much as possible ahead of the June 30th possible cutoff points. And consumers, seeing the possibility of higher tariffs filtering through to higher consumer prices later in the year may buy early altering their historic patterns. It could be a great fall but miserable Christmas for retailers.

The hike to 25% tariffs is a one-off event. It won’t happen again next week or next year. In the meantime, prices hiked for higher tariffs will come down over time as supply chains are shifted out of China and demand will recover quickly. In the end, higher tariffs may be deflationary and stimulate growth. How ironic! An investor, like a company, must take a long-term view making only some small changes along the way to preserve/redirect capital to benefit overall performance. It’s hard playing the long ball sometimes, but we can assure you that Buffett/Munger know that compounding returns over time is the key to success. They measure their success over decades, not years nor months nor days. And they have done pretty well.

The greatest opportunities come at times like this. Are you an investor or a trader? We can only imagine that Buffett and Munger are looking at the chance to finally commit billions buying stocks and hopefully companies at bargain prices as others panic out of fear. Both of them love to buy as stocks are falling. Is Apple a better buy at $178 or $210? Munger has probably added to his Chinese holdings big time too which have been hit fallen more than stocks here. They truly look longer term over the valley when everyone is looking in the abyss. They look at the long-term potential for each investment and compare it to its current cost/intrinsic long-term value to come to an estimate of future returns. We try to do that, but we don’t have the Buffett/Munger advantage of having the float of a huge insurance company balance sheet to invest. So, we raised a lot of cash and shifted the composition of our portfolios weeks ago taking some risk off to be in position to take advantage as others panic.

Our one disagreement with Buffett/Munger and the Fed is that we feel that low inflation is NOT transitory therefore the stock market multiple today is way too low. That’s a biggie!

One side note about the recent decline of the markets: while the averages may not have declined much from their recent highs, take a look under the hood and you will find devastation in many sectors of the market, especially if there is any Chinese exposure like semis. As we mentioned weeks ago when we took cash to over 17% of our assets by first selling anything with Chinese exposure and then reducing sectors that were dependent on an acceleration in global growth which we had thought would take place with a trade deal. Yes, we shifted our view! We added defensive stocks with stable growth/high dividend yields, technology and some additional special situations all with great managements, winning strategies, huge free cash flow, and not penalized much, if at all, by higher Chinese tariffs.

Let’s take a quick look at some of the data points reported last week which for the most part came out on the weaker than expected side:

1.) We were most disappointed with the Fed notes which came out last week. The Fed is one step behind on both the prospects for the U.S. economy and inflation. The Fed is standing pat expecting the economy to do fine and inflation to pick up. Wrong on both counts especially if trade tariffs are increased on all Chinese exports. Low inflation is NOT transitory. We continue to believe that the December Fed rate hike was NOT justified and needs to be reversed. The Fed failed to acknowledge in their notes the impact of our rates on the dollar which continues to soar as the yield differential widens with rates abroad. The U.S. economy needs lower short rates and a weaker dollar. We expect the Fed to lower rates BEFORE the fall.

It was reported last week that U.S. manufacturing survey slumped to a 9-year low in May. In addition, the services index fell to a 39-month low. Both numbers remained over 50 indicating growth continues albeit slowly. New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 1.1% in April after rising 1.7% in March, shipments fell 1.6% after a 0.5% March decrease and unfilled orders declined 0.1% after rising 0.1% the month before. Finally, new home sales declined in April although up nearly 7% from a year ago.

While we have lowered our second-quarter GNP to 1.5%, consumer spending is likely to have accelerated to 2.5% gain from the first quarter. We cannot see the economy really accelerating much beyond 2.25% in the second half of the year led by the consumer without a resolution on trade. We still believe that 2020 will be a better year as Trump pulls out all stops to win the election…. that may include several trade deals. You can bet on it!

2.) The big news out of Europe was the resignation of Theresa May as Prime Minister of Britain after continuing to fail backing for the Brexit divorce agreement. If a hard Brexit occurs, it is not good for anyone. We continue to have a bleak outlook for all of the Eurozone without major financial, fiscal and regulatory reforms. What more can the ECB do at this time? Nada!

Economic activity continues to weaken in the Eurozone and growth is likely to be less than 0.3% in the second quarter and less in subsequent quarters. European stocks are statistically cheap for a reason.

3.) Japan’s economy is not much better than Europe’s. Manufacturing activity fell back into contraction in May as exports fell at the fastest pace in four months. We do not believe that Prime Minister Abe will move forward on raising the sale tax in October although he says that he will. Japan’s economy, as is others, are tied to the success of trade talks with the U.S. and China. We would avoid investing here until we know more on trade.

4.) The re-election of Prime Minister Modi and his government was a real bright spot last week. We continue to favor investing in India as we have all year.

A successful investor, like Buffett and Munger, take the long view investing in great companies when others panic not discriminating amongst investments. Management is the key. Why not listen to both the Home Depot and Lowe’s quarterly conference calls and discern for yourself which one you would want to own longer term? A hint…we own HD! Also listen to Target and Kohl’s quarterly conference calls. Another hint…. we have owned TGT!

We do NOT buy the market. We buy stocks in companies that can excel in any environment. When these stocks go down caught in trading programs, it is an opportunity to add to them at better prices. Buffett/Munger do and say the same thing every time. Maintaining excess liquidity, staying disciplined and being patient are necessities during stressful times like this.

Buffett/Munger are licking their chops as stock prices are falling into their buy zones.

We need to be thankful/remember those who sacrificed their lives for our way of life.

We have added to our defensive stocks that would not be hurt from higher Chinese tariffs…mainly health care and consumer related. We have also added to domestic sectors that benefit from lower interest costs… mostly housing related. And we have added to technology companies that drive security and productivity returns far above the buyer’s cost of capital. While we have reduced our financials somewhat due to Fed’s stubborn stance, we like the sector very much as it is significantly undervalued relative to intrinsic value. And we keep adding to and finding new special situations which are individually unique and have nothing to do with the economy. We have reduced holdings in areas hurt by higher tariffs and lower global growth. Cash is up! We own no bonds and are flat the dollar which will remain strong until the Fed cuts rates.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look always at your asset mix with risk controls; do independent research… and

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

#economy #stockmarket

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taylordmorris · 6 years ago

Text

Why the Yuan Could Break 7 ... or 6 ... or 8

New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/why-the-yuan-could-break-7-or-6-or-8

Why the Yuan Could Break 7 ... or 6 ... or 8

China was right then to go with the flow, albeit with some fits and starts. It would be right now, too. Flexibility covers all manner of sins.

Read More https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/why-the-yuan-could-break-7-or-6-or-8

#6 #7 #8 #break #Yuan

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