#Covid-19 Fourth wave

[covid-safer-hotties]

Noah Lyles' collapse underscores our collective COVID denial - Published Aug 10, 2024

Read the full story at either link! (covidsafehotties archive is always free of pesky in-line ads!)

We keep pretending that the pandemic is done and over, but it keeps knocking us off our feet

The 2024 Olympic Games are serving up some less-than-subtle metaphors for how poorly we handle public health. Just after winning a bronze medal in the much-anticipated men's 200-meter race, U.S. sprinter Noah Lyles collapsed on the track in exhaustion — not just because he’d completed a brutal run in just 19.7 seconds, finishing third, but also because he was sick with COVID-19, a diagnosis that he’d concealed from others. He had been favored to take home gold, as he did in the 100-meter race a few days earlier.

But seeing an American Olympic star sprawled out and gasping on the track, and then taken away in a wheelchair, was more than a shocking image. It also represented the general “mission accomplished” attitude toward SARS-CoV-2: We think we’ve won against this virus and we haven’t.

COVID isn’t just spreading like wildfire through the Olympic Village in Paris — we are undergoing surges across the globe, with the World Health Organization tracking steep rises in infections in 84 countries. After more than four years fighting this thing, it is still knocking us out.

In some parts of the U.S., the amount of COVID is so high that experts are claiming this summer surge is on par with winter waves of the virus. But none of this should be unexpected at this point. This is no longer the “novel” coronavirus that once terrified people with its unpredictability. We know how it behaves, with surges in both summer and winter, and we know how to fight against it — yet our apparent strategy at the moment is to pretend it doesn’t exist at all, even when it swipes us off our feet.

It’s true that the pandemic is much different than it was in 2020. For one thing, in spite of this surge, deaths are relatively low, following trends since vaccines became available. In 2023, COVID dropped from the fourth leading cause of death in the U.S. to the 10th, according to recent provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That's not great, but it does indicate that widespread immunity (from vaccines, previous infections or both) is giving us some level of protection. Though let’s not forget that at least 1.2 million Americans have died to date from COVID. It’s nothing to sneeze at.

Deaths aren’t the only concerning metric, of course. Sometimes a COVID infection is asymptomatic, while at other times, the symptoms last for months or years or never fully go away. Patients call this long COVID and public health experts have described it as a mass disabling event. Lyles isn’t just lucky he won a bronze medal — he’ll be lucky if he doesn’t experience months of headaches, lung issues or extreme fatigue that never goes away.

Yet long COVID is rarely factored into discussions about this pandemic, even when kids get it. Instead, it’s treated as if infections are merely a mild cold at this point. Just shake it off, as Taylor Swift might say, while her summer tour dates become superspreading events.

Millions of patients can attest that COVID is anything but mild — and it's definitely not the flu. The SARS-CoV-2 virus can worm its way into nearly every part of our bodies, trashing our immune system and damaging our organs. We tend to think of the disease as a respiratory problem, given all the coughs and sniffles it produces, but it’s really more of a vascular disease, impacting any system that relies on blood vessels. That can include damage to the brain, which can manifest in symptoms like long-term cognitive impairment and Parkinson’s disease.

Yes, a virus that can literally cause brain damage is spreading at record levels and most people are acting like it’s just another wave. Just keep running.

But we’re not just paying the price with our bodies. The economy is also getting smacked by long COVID. A recent comprehensive review in the journal Nature Medicine found that the “cumulative global incidence of long COVID is around 400 million individuals, which is estimated to have an annual economic impact of approximately $1 trillion.” That's ignoring the long list of ways that long COVID wreaks havoc on the body, including, as the study notes, "viral persistence, immune dysregulation, mitochondrial dysfunction, complement dysregulation, endothelial inflammation and microbiome dysbiosis."

[submalevolentgrace]

"While we're typically told to expect large spikes in COVID-19 cases over winter, this new wave is hitting Australia in spring.

Professor Adrian Esterman, chair of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of South Australia, said that's because there are three big things happening at the same time.

The first is that many people in Australia have waning immunity from vaccination and previous infection.

"It's now seven months since my last dose, and that means that by now I have a much-reduced protection against COVID-19, and that includes serious illness and death," Professor Esterman told SBS News.

"So although I'll still have some protection, it’s nowhere near as strong as it was seven months ago, and many people are in that situation."

The second is that new Omicron subvariants have arrived in Australia, including XBB and BQ.1.

"They've really taken over in places like Singapore and France, and they're starting to take over here," Professor Esterman said.

"[The subvariants] are much more transmissible than BA.5, they're much better at evading our immunity, and they would alone cause an increase in cases, never mind waning immunity."

The final thing in the mix is the removal of public health measures, such as mandatory isolation and mask-wearing in indoor settings.

"We've taken off all our brakes to reduce transmission, we have nothing left," Professor Esterman said.

"That means that if any new variant comes along that we don't have immunity against, it will just go straight through the population.""

[ausetkmt]

Al Jazeera English: ‘The only way for us to survive’: The life of a New York City candy seller

New York City, United States – A clock on the electronic display flickers to noon above the bustling Times Square subway station in New York City. Amid the lunchtime crowd of commuters and tourists stands María, a 31-year-old single mother from Ecuador whose daily life revolves around this transit hub.

It is here, in the tunnels underneath the city, that María earns the money she needs to survive.

On her back is her two-year-old daughter, and in her hands is a colourful tray of candy, crammed with packages of M&Ms and Kit Kat chocolates and sticks of Trident gum.

From the Times Square station, María can hop on and off the Number 7 train, a popular link to the borough of Queens. As she walks from one carriage to the next, she repeats “candy” and “dollar” — two of the few words she knows in English — hoping to make a sale.

New York City is in the midst of an immigration crisis, with more than 113,300 asylum seekers arriving since 2022 — and too few shelters to house them. With the city’s immigration policies in the spotlight, María’s interactions with the public can be tense.

“People insult us or record us without authorisation, accusing us of importing bad habits and poverty from home,” María said. “They don’t understand our situation.”

María — who is using a pseudonym to protect her privacy — is part of a population of largely Ecuadorian candy sellers who make a living on the New York City subway system.

Peddling sweets is familiar work for María: It is the same job she used to do in her hometown in the province of Cotopaxi. But it is also a necessity. Without legal papers authorising her stay in the US, finding steady employment is difficult, seemingly impossible.

“It’s what my cousin and other women from Ecuador I know do because there are no job opportunities. It’s the only way for us to survive,” María explained.

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But each sale only nets her one dollar, maybe two. After working 13 hours straight, from 7am to 8pm, she might come home with $50 on a good day, $10 on a bad one.

A ‘third wave’ of Ecuadorian migration

By the end of September, the US Border Patrol had apprehended 117,487 Ecuadorians for the fiscal year 2023 — more than four times the previous year’s total.

Anthropologist Soledad Alvarez, a professor at the University of Illinois Chicago, considers this spike part of Ecuador’s third major “wave” of emigration since the 1980s.

She told Al Jazeera the current exodus began in 2014, “caused by the decline in oil prices”.

“Then the pandemic came and hit Ecuador severely,” she said. “Since then, this crisis has deepened under the administrations of Lenin Moreno and Guillermo Lasso, leading to substantial migration in recent years.”

The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses in Ecuador (INEC) reports that income poverty — defined as earnings of less than $89.29 per month — reached 27 percent in June. Extreme poverty, meanwhile, hit 10.8 percent.

Alvarez also points to the deteriorating security situation in Ecuador as a motivation for leaving.

Last year was the worst for criminal violence, with 25 homicides per 100,000 people. And in 2023, the situation escalated. The homicide rate in Ecuador is now the fourth highest in Latin America.

María witnessed many of her neighbours and acquaintances leaving as a result of the violence.

The tipping point for her was when the father of her child passed away during the COVID-19 pandemic. She was alone, racking up debt, and what little she earned was sometimes stolen as the country’s crime rates ticked upwards.

“It’s not just jobs and food that we’re lacking. Ecuador has become extremely dangerous. We now live in constant fear,” María said.

She left Ecuador in the first week of April, travelling north through the Darién Gap, a dangerous stretch of jungle that connects South America to Central America. For two months, she walked and caught buses, spending $3,000 in expenses for the journey.

Risks to selling candy

Back home in Ecuador, María said selling candy was primarily women’s work. But in New York, she competes with men and even children on the subway platforms, hawking candy she bought at a wholesale store.

The presence of young children has sparked particular concern among the public. Some subway riders have taken to social media to vent their frustration.

“This is child exploitation and should be banned,” one user on TikTok said. Another called on law enforcement to intervene.

Under New York state law, child labour under age 14 is largely prohibited and can be regarded as abuse. But Alvarez, the anthropologist, said many new arrivals from Ecuador are unaware of the local laws.

Additionally, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) prohibits unauthorised commercial activity in the subway. Police can fine the candy sellers $50 if they catch them, so María is constantly on the lookout for their uniforms.

“We run away from the police when we see them. A ticket can cost what we earn in a day. Police also tell us that we can lose the custody of our children,” she said.

Gustavo Espinoza, a community organiser, explained to Al Jazeera that there are services and organisations working to educate new immigrants about the resources available to them.

However, those without legal immigration papers are often reluctant to seek assistance due to their fear of deportation, Espinoza said. They “live in constant fear”.

“There is evidently a barrier,” he explained. “There are organisations that want to help but they don’t reach the immigrants who need assistance but are afraid to ask or seek help.”

In August, New York City Mayor Eric Adams estimated the city could end up paying up to $12bn to support migrants over the next three years.

But advocates say those efforts are not enough to help migrants and asylum seekers like María, who rarely goes anywhere without her child.

Some are pushing for the New York State Senate to pass a 2023 bill that would offer universal childcare to all parents, regardless of immigration status. But that legislation is still pending.

For María and others, though, there seems to be no alternative but to carry on with their daily routines, children in tow.

María’s daughter rides on her back throughout the day: She only ever sets the two-year-old down briefly, keeping a watchful eye on the child. On top of her cargo of candy to sell, María carries around cookies and a bottle of milk to feed her child, who often dozes as her mother works.

“I can’t leave my daughter alone at home. Nobody will care for her,” María said.

Life, at least for the time being, means balancing both childcare and selling candy in the subway: “There’s no other option.”

[mariacallous]

It’s the summer tradition no one wants to partake in: Covid-19 cases are on the rise again. Hospitalizations from the virus ticked up in mid-July, increasing by 12 percent to just over 8,000 across the US for the week ending July 22. That’s nowhere near the pandemic peaks that overwhelmed health workers, but July brought the first weekly increases in hospitalizations since the US ended the federal Covid-19 public health emergency in May, just a week after the World Health Organization did the same with its global public health emergency.

The end of Covid-19 emergency status meant the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stopped tracking the virus as closely. But metrics show infections are still spreading. The pharmacy chain Walgreens reported a 42 percent positivity rate for tests during the last week of July, up from 29 percent in late June. And wastewater samples show concentrations of the virus moving upward across the country. Cases of Covid have also increased in Japan and the United Kingdom.

SARS-CoV-2 has spiked every summer since 2020. “There’s no reason that we wouldn’t see [a wave] this summer,” says Katelyn Jetelina, who writes the online health newsletter Your Local Epidemiologist. “We’re slowly but surely starting to see one summer wave and one winter wave.”

But experts have a hazier view of the building wave than in prior years. In the US, publication of hospitalization data comes a week behind the dates it captures. The CDC no longer tracks community levels of transmission. When the WHO emergency declaration was in effect, we saw more cross-government communication, but that’s less available now. “Our magnifying glass is a bit smudged compared to where we were a year ago,” says Josh Michaud, an associate director for global health policy at KFF, a nonprofit research group. “Many of the data points and indicators that we relied on in the past are no longer available to us.”

But there are still signs to watch. Wastewater testing, which can find traces of the virus expelled in feces, has shown a “sustained” increase in Covid-19 concentrations over several weeks, says Mariana Matus, CEO and cofounder of Biobot Analytics, a company that tracks Covid-19, Mpox, and opioids in US wastewater. The data from Biobot Analytics draws from about 600 wastewater data collection points and is valuable, Matus says, because it doesn’t exclude people who can’t afford testing or don’t report the results of at-home tests—and it can show the presence of Covid-19 in a community before large numbers of people get test results or are hospitalized.

But ensuring a bigger picture will require additional steps, such as expanding wastewater sampling. The decision to test wastewater largely relies on individual communities opting do their own testing. Matus imagines a more robust system that could help people make decisions based on pathogen concentrations in different regions, analogous to the Air Quality Index—data that could be easily displayed on something equivalent to a weather app. “We’re very excited about a vision and a future where people interact with wastewater data similar to how they interact with weather data, where it’s that pervasive in our society,” Matus says.

At this point, it’s too early to say there’s a massive wave of infections building—but the hospitalization data is enough to pique the attention of epidemiologists and public health experts. Although case and hospitalization numbers are still relatively low, the virus does kill hundreds of people in the US each week. And as of early 2023, it had left an estimated one in 10 survivors fighting long Covid, which can include persistent health issues like breathlessness and brain fog.

There could be a few reasons for the current uptick in cases, waning immunity among them. Just around 17 percent of the US population has received bivalent vaccines, which became widely available in the fall of 2022 and are meant to offer better protection against Omicron variants. With lower case numbers over the past few months and many people not receiving a booster shot in 2023, immunity from vaccinations and prior infections could be decreasing, making more people susceptible to the virus, says Sam Scarpino, director of AI and life sciences at the Institute for Experiential AI at Northeastern University.

Experts guessed that Covid-19 would become seasonal, peaking in the fall and winter like the flu and the common cold, but other factors have kept the virus around in warmer months. “It’s true that you have cyclical patterns for most of these respiratory diseases,” Scarpino says. “I don’t think it’s really well understood what drives those.”

There could be some particular factors at play this year. Much of the US is enduring a suffocating summer. Wildfire smoke from Canada has engulfed the East Coast and Midwest, and exposure to the particulate pollution that comes with the smoke may weaken the immune system. Those were the findings of a 2021 study: In 2020, parts of California, Oregon, and Washington that experienced wildfire smoke saw excess Covid-19 cases and deaths. Meanwhile, dangerously high temperatures are keeping people indoors in the southern part of the US, and as a respiratory virus, SARS-CoV-2 spreads most easily indoors. People also traveled at record rates during the summer’s early months, which meant more opportunities for Covid to spread. But it’s not yet clear whether one, all, or none of these factors may be driving infections.

Genomic sequencing from the CDC shows that, as of June, offshoots of the Omicron variant are responsible for all of Covid-19 cases in the US. “On one hand, this is a good sign,” says Jetelina. “We can hopefully predict where SARS-CoV-2 is going.” That’s helpful for formulating updated coronavirus vaccinations. But it’s not certain that the virus’s evolution will continue down this Omicron path. In May, experts estimated the possibility of a highly mutated variant of concern arising during the next two years at about 20 percent.

In June, the US Food and Drug Administration recommended the development of an updated Covid-19 shot, preferring a formula that would target the XBB.1.5 Omicron variant. The FDA may authorize such a shot by the end of the month. But it’s hard to know whether people will be eager to get a fifth or sixth vaccine—pandemic fatigue, distrust of public health officials, and an overall return to normal life left many unenthused about last year’s booster and contributed to the low uptake rates. And while the US government previously bought doses directly and helped distribute them for free, the distribution of vaccines is now expected to move to the private sector.

Officials are unlikely to roll out wide-ranging restrictions on masking and social distancing—and barring a threatening new subvariant or a massive peak in cases, people are unlikely to change their behaviors after living alongside the virus for more than three years. It’s too soon to know whether the latest Covid-19 cases are a blip or a big wave. But as the dog days of summer linger, Covid is hanging around too.

[skiplo-wave]

I don't think it's a coincidence that the U.S. decides it would return mummies back to Egypt nor do I think they would had let them go so easily. They are messing with to much shit over there in them sands and they found a bunch of new mummies + a new royal tomb. I think the U.S. believes by returning the mummies, these plagues will stop.

But honestly think about it. Ever since 2020, I feel like we are in that animation movie The Prince of Egypt (1998).

Now keep in mind, besides people trying to storm Area 51, there was a lot of Egypt archaeology discoveries in 2019 including a fully intact mummified lion. And you know how Egyptians feel about their cats. The cats are pharaohs in their own right. They are the guardians of the underworld but lions, psh, they are probably Hades himself. And a lot of the discoveries since the pandemic has to do with cats. There's something going on with that.

January of 2020: That whole month dragged out for a long time and so did the January of 2021.

February of 2020: Tomb of Rromulus is found. Weird sickness was going around and some people was getting blood clots in their lungs. This was right before supposedly COVID-19 entered the U.S. but it seemed it was already there because there was a number of sicknesses in December of 2019 that they thought was Influenza B.

March of 2020: COVID-19 came and the lockdowns began.

April of 2020: Random meteor showers came with no warnings. We got the threat of murder hornets. Cougars infected with the plague.

May of 2020: New variants emerged, death of a innocent and riots exploded out in the streets.

June of 2020: Chaos and destruction. Political warfare and tensions rise between world leaders. And locusts swarmed India.

July of 2020: The bubonic plague case in Mongolia. Which was the same plague that caused Black Death.

August of 2020: Accidents, crashes and shootings. Violence rates rises.

September of 2020: Protests and violence continues. A huge number of Egyptian mummies found. A dark winter is predicted.

October of 2020: New variants to come. A 120 foot long geoglyph of a cat discovered in Peru that is dated between 200 B.B. and 100 B.B.

November of 2020: Strange influenza cases that are mimicking and giving immunity towards COVID-19. Discovery that certain people with certain blood types have some type of immunity to fight off COVID-9.

December of 2020: Dark winter, COVID-19 death rises. Ancient cat carving discovered in the Amazon.

January of 2021: More chaos, influenza and COVID-19 waning. New Egyptian discoveries. More mummified cats.

February of 2021: Tensions rises from other countries, violence continue to rise ebola outbreaks and avian flu recorded.

March of 2021: Protests erupts around the world. Fuel prices start racking up.

April of 2021: Duke of Edinburgh dies. Chaos continues on U.S. soil and multiple shootings break records. Ancient cat burial discovered in Cyprus (Still messing with shit they shouldn't messing with).

May of 2021: Violence and shootings climb to a all time high. A new saber-toothed cat discovered to had roamed North America 5-9 million years ago.

June of 2021: Threat of a stronger COVID-19 variant. Brood X cicadas return from hell.

July of 2021: World tragedies all around...

August of 2021: More world tragedies. Big ass house spider threat.

September of 2021: Another dark winter predicted. New threats coming out of other countries.

October of 2021: Military, shortages, protests and violence.

November of 2021: New wave of COVID-19 hitting people bad even those who are vaxxed. Tragedies continue in a three week pace.

December of 2021: Natural disasters, fourth week tragedies and gun violence.

January of 2022: Volcano wildfires and flooding. Groceries start racking up. Tragic Hollywood deaths.

February of 2022: Human rights threatened. Russia invades Ukraine.

March of 2022: Threat of WWIII. Sanctions against Russia. Prices at the pumps and store continue to rise.

April of 2022: Natural disasters continue. Deaths, scandal and execution.

May of 2022: UK cost of living continues to rise. Nuclear weapon threat. Another COVID-19 outbreak fear. Deadly COVID-19 variant threat. Tensions rises.

June of 2022: More sanctions, massacres, bans and Queen Elizabeth II celebrated 70 years on the English throne. UK continues to struggle with food price surge.

July of 2022: Both Republican and Democrats can't get their shit together.

August of 2022: Sanctions, rockets, violence and omicron. Romains of a house-cat sized dinosaur is discovered in Argentina. Influenza that is mimicking COVID-19 and giving immunity against it is going around again.

September of 2022: Queen Elizabeth II dies. More world tragedies continue. COVID-19 restrictions eases as there is a new threat of deadly variants. It's also discovered that cat's create mental maps. You can't hide from your cat.

October of 2022: More country threats. U.K. is at a crisis. U.S. is following suit with prices at the grocery store.

November of 2022: RSV and flu cases rise at a all time high. Hospitals are crowded with sick children. Avian flu outbreak wipes out millions of birds. (But what doesn't make sense about the egg prices is that they was already rising before that). But also there is a study on ancient feline mirgration into Europe.

December of 2022: Deadly viruses. Triple-demic. Extreme cold temperatures. A new tomb discovered with unknown queen. Falcon shrine. Mummified cats guarding the tomb. They found ancient cat fossils and doing feline genetic testing to find ancient DNA too!

January of 2023: More unexpected tragic deaths. Volcanos and earthquakes. Triple-demic is still making it's rounds but RSV seems to be waning. Warmer climates and deadly tornadoes. And on January 13th, Friday the 13th btw, Ancient cat fossils found in Texas. You can't make this shit up.

Aka we learned nothing from cinema classic The mummy starring Brendan Frasser and you know stop taking shit from poc burial grounds

[heresiae]

so, the EU has recently approved the use of cricket's flour in our food and... Mother has finally a new conspiracy flag to wave!!

(this is only the fourth bug they're approving for food supply, it's not even the first!!).

after the vaccines (still against but at least she doesn't tell they cause autism anymore), the yellow party that, in her opinion, were the new and improved and instead were bullshit and the old like everyone else and covid-19, she has new battle!

finally! she wasn't looking like herself without a pointless and ignorant battle to wave around (oh right, the 5G too). kind of missed the old conspiracy gal.

till now, I managed to keep my mouth shut, but I'm not sure how long will I be able to do it.

this evening she shared a list of foods that we should be on the lookout for and we should be vary of every label that say "proteins" (no more eggs people!! chicken might have fed on a cricket!!)

now I have my three brain cells fighting:

one is the rabid ones, it wants to ask her if she think all the other cultures are somewhat at fault for enjoying bugs protein in the last millennials

one is the troll one, it wants to tell her that were are already on the waiting list for the first official product with crickets flour (cookies!!) and we hope they will give us a bit of wisdom and luck [double cit]

the third one is trying to keep them quite because both approaches will just fuel Mother and it will not be good for our peace

I mean, I can barely manage her when I agree with her, you have no idea how I went very close to throw something at her when she and few friends of her where discussing how dangerous vaccines are for kids. she was a kindergarten teacher, so I was not just pissed, I was worried about her influence. but now she's no in a position to hurt anybody, so... I just want to troll her!!

LET ME TROLL HER YOU DAMN COMMON SENSE!!

[hadnewscom]

The US Faces a Summer Surge of COVID-19 - Video-As summer rolls on, the United States is facing a new wave of COVID-19 infections. The latest victims include well-known personalities like Whoopi Goldberg, whose recent positive test marks her fourth bout with the virus. Misty Montgomery, a frequent traveler,...

[gracedonahoe]

Navigating Waves: How Exogenous Factors like the COVID-19 Pandemic Shape Product Adoption

There are many things that impact product adoption and diffusion, as mentioned in this week's reading. Those include but are not limited to:

1. the product itself (is it designed well? is it significantly better than other alternatives? does it address a new or existing customer need?)

2. the market fit (is the company targeting the right audience with this product? is the price of the product appropriate for that audience? is the product being offered in the right stores to reach those consumers? are they talking about the product in the right way?)

3. the competitive landscape (are there competing products and services that may impact adoption rates? is this product competitively priced? how does our marketing compare to competitors?)

A fourth factor that did not come up in the reading but can impact product adoption rates just as much, if not more, than the aforementioned factors are what I will call "exogenous factors". These include things like geopolitical events or natural disasters/crises, which can in turn impact both customer sentiment and also customer needs/priorities. One prime example of this is the COVID-19 pandemic.

Peloton is one brand that was well positioned for a global pandemic. Its product was able to offer a home workout solution for millions of people who were now no longer able to go to gyms or workout classes. What followed was a huge increase in adoption rates for the fitness app. This is an example of how exogenous factors (such as a global pandemic) can impact adoption of a product or service -- either for the positive or for the negative. While Peloton road the pandemic wave, they have been hit hard by a "return to normalcy", as subscribers have dropped off.

[screenshots123]

📆 26 Feb 2024 📰 A pandemic that will not go away – as Covid enters its 5th year, NZ needs a realistic strategy ✍️ Michael Baker et al 🗞️ RNZ News

The World Health Organisation refers to Covid-19 as a continuing pandemic. As Scientific American put it recently, it "has been the elephant in every room - sometimes confronted and sometimes ignored but always present".

It was not meant to be like this. The 1918 influenza pandemic swept through New Zealand in eight weeks, killing 9000 people - almost 1 percent of the population. Then it was gone, returning as a new seasonal flu virus.

In doing so, it defined how pandemics were expected to behave. This model was written into pandemic plans and collective thinking across the globe.

But Covid is still circulating four years after New Zealand reported its first case, and more than two years after the Omicron variant arrived and infection became widespread.

Constantly present, it is also occurring in waves. Unexpectedly, the current fifth wave was larger than the fourth, suggesting we cannot rely on the comforting assumption that Covid will get less severe over time...

The virus has demonstrated an ability for large, unpredictable evolutionary shifts that dramatically alter its genome and spike protein...

This jump was seen with the highly mutated BA.2.86 subvariant in mid-2023.

Its offspring, JN.1, has acquired additional changes and is causing such a wave of new infections it could potentially be the next variant of concern, with its own Greek letter. It is now driving epidemic increases across the globe, including in New Zealand. This dominance by a single subvariant takes us back to the first year of Omicron in 2022.

[miraridoctor]

The COVID-19 pandemic has entered its fourth calendar year, and the virus continues to evolve and circulate widely. The latest variant gaining traction across the United States and beyond is the Omicron sub-lineage known as JN.1, which accounted for ... #Mirari #MirariDoctor #MirariColdPlasma #ColdPlasma

[brookstonalmanac]

Events 2.11 (after 1950)

1953 – Cold War: U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower denies all appeals for clemency for Julius and Ethel Rosenberg. 1953 – Israeli-Soviet relations are severed. 1959 – The Federation of Arab Emirates of the South is created as a protectorate of the United Kingdom. 1963 — The Beatles recorded their first album Please Please Me. 1970 – Japan launches Ohsumi, becoming the fourth nation to put an object into orbit using its own booster. 1971 – Cold War: the Seabed Arms Control Treaty opened for signature outlawing nuclear weapons on the ocean floor in international waters. 1978 – Pacific Western Airlines Flight 314 crashes at the Cranbrook/Canadian Rockies International Airport in Cranbrook, British Columbia, Canada with 42 deaths and seven survivors. 1979 – The Iranian Revolution establishes an Islamic theocracy under the leadership of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. 1990 – Nelson Mandela is released from Victor Verster Prison outside Cape Town, South Africa after 27 years as a political prisoner. 1990 – Buster Douglas, a 42:1 underdog, knocks out Mike Tyson in ten rounds at Tokyo to win boxing's world Heavyweight title. 1997 – Space Shuttle Discovery is launched on a mission to service the Hubble Space Telescope. 1999 – Pluto crosses Neptune's orbit, ending a nearly 20-year period when it was closer to the Sun than the gas giant; Pluto is not expected to interact with Neptune's orbit again until 2231. 2001 – A Dutch programmer launched the Anna Kournikova virus infecting millions of emails via a trick photo of the tennis star. 2008 – Rebel East Timorese soldiers seriously wound President José Ramos-Horta. Rebel leader Alfredo Reinado is killed in the attack. 2011 – Arab Spring: The first wave of the Egyptian revolution culminates in the resignation of Hosni Mubarak and the transfer of power to the Supreme Military Council after 17 days of protests. 2013 – The Vatican confirmed that Pope Benedict XVI would resign the papacy as a result of his advanced age. 2013 – Militants claiming to be from the Sultanate of Sulu invade Lahad Datu District, Sabah, Malaysia, beginning the Lahad Datu standoff. 2014 – A military transport plane crashes in a mountainous area of Oum El Bouaghi Province in eastern Algeria, killing 77 people. 2015 – A university student was murdered as she resisted an attempted rape in Turkey, sparking nationwide protests and public outcry against harassment and violence against women. 2016 – A man shoots seven people dead at an education center in Jizan Province, Saudi Arabia. 2017 – North Korea test fires a ballistic missile across the Sea of Japan. 2018 – Saratov Airlines Flight 703 crashes near Moscow, Russia with 71 deaths and no survivors. 2020 – COVID-19 pandemic: The World Health Organization officially names the coronavirus outbreak as COVID-19, with the virus being designated SARS-CoV-2.

[kammartinez]

Amanda Hoover

It’s the summer tradition no one wants to partake in: Covid-19 cases are on the rise again. Hospitalizations from the virus ticked up in mid-July, increasing by 12 percent to just over 8,000 across the US for the week ending July 22. That’s nowhere near the pandemic peaks that overwhelmed health workers, but July brought the first weekly increases in hospitalizations since the US ended the federal Covid-19 public health emergency in May, just a week after the World Health Organization did the same with its global public health emergency.

The end of Covid-19 emergency status meant the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stopped tracking the virus as closely. But metrics show infections are still spreading. The pharmacy chain Walgreens reported a 42 percent positivity rate for tests during the last week of July, up from 29 percent in late June. And wastewater samples show concentrations of the virus moving upward across the country. Cases of Covid have also increased in Japan and the United Kingdom.

SARS-CoV-2 has spiked every summer since 2020. “There’s no reason that we wouldn’t see [a wave] this summer,” says Katelyn Jetelina, who writes the online health newsletter Your Local Epidemiologist. “We’re slowly but surely starting to see one summer wave and one winter wave.”

But experts have a hazier view of the building wave than in prior years. In the US, publication of hospitalization data comes a week behind the dates it captures. The CDC no longer tracks community levels of transmission. When the WHO emergency declaration was in effect, we saw more cross-government communication, but that’s less available now. “Our magnifying glass is a bit smudged compared to where we were a year ago,” says Josh Michaud, an associate director for global health policy at KFF, a nonprofit research group. “Many of the data points and indicators that we relied on in the past are no longer available to us.”

But there are still signs to watch. Wastewater testing, which can find traces of the virus expelled in feces, has shown a “sustained” increase in Covid-19 concentrations over several weeks, says Mariana Matus, CEO and cofounder of Biobot Analytics, a company that tracks Covid-19, Mpox, and opioids in US wastewater. The data from Biobot Analytics draws from about 600 wastewater data collection points and is valuable, Matus says, because it doesn’t exclude people who can’t afford testing or don’t report the results of at-home tests—and it can show the presence of Covid-19 in a community before large numbers of people get test results or are hospitalized.

But ensuring a bigger picture will require additional steps, such as expanding wastewater sampling. The decision to test wastewater largely relies on individual communities opting do their own testing. Matus imagines a more robust system that could help people make decisions based on pathogen concentrations in different regions, analogous to the Air Quality Index—data that could be easily displayed on something equivalent to a weather app. “We’re very excited about a vision and a future where people interact with wastewater data similar to how they interact with weather data, where it’s that pervasive in our society,” Matus says.

At this point, it’s too early to say there’s a massive wave of infections building—but the hospitalization data is enough to pique the attention of epidemiologists and public health experts. Although case and hospitalization numbers are still relatively low, the virus does kill hundreds of people in the US each week. And as of early 2023, it had left an estimated one in 10 survivors fighting long Covid, which can include persistent health issues like breathlessness and brain fog.

There could be a few reasons for the current uptick in cases, waning immunity among them. Just around 17 percent of the US population has received bivalent vaccines, which became widely available in the fall of 2022 and are meant to offer better protection against Omicron variants. With lower case numbers over the past few months and many people not receiving a booster shot in 2023, immunity from vaccinations and prior infections could be decreasing, making more people susceptible to the virus, says Sam Scarpino, director of AI and life sciences at the Institute for Experiential AI at Northeastern University.

Experts guessed that Covid-19 would become seasonal, peaking in the fall and winter like the flu and the common cold, but other factors have kept the virus around in warmer months. “It’s true that you have cyclical patterns for most of these respiratory diseases,” Scarpino says. “I don’t think it’s really well understood what drives those.”

There could be some particular factors at play this year. Much of the US is enduring a suffocating summer. Wildfire smoke from Canada has engulfed the East Coast and Midwest, and exposure to the particulate pollution that comes with the smoke may weaken the immune system. Those were the findings of a 2021 study: In 2020, parts of California, Oregon, and Washington that experienced wildfire smoke saw excess Covid-19 cases and deaths. Meanwhile, dangerously high temperatures are keeping people indoors in the southern part of the US, and as a respiratory virus, SARS-CoV-2 spreads most easily indoors. People also traveled at record rates during the summer’s early months, which meant more opportunities for Covid to spread. But it’s not yet clear whether one, all, or none of these factors may be driving infections.

Genomic sequencing from the CDC shows that, as of June, offshoots of the Omicron variant are responsible for all of Covid-19 cases in the US. “On one hand, this is a good sign,” says Jetelina. “We can hopefully predict where SARS-CoV-2 is going.” That’s helpful for formulating updated coronavirus vaccinations. But it’s not certain that the virus’s evolution will continue down this Omicron path. In May, experts estimated the possibility of a highly mutated variant of concern arising during the next two years at about 20 percent.

In June, the US Food and Drug Administration recommended the development of an updated Covid-19 shot, preferring a formula that would target the XBB.1.5 Omicron variant. The FDA may authorize such a shot by the end of the month. But it’s hard to know whether people will be eager to get a fifth or sixth vaccine—pandemic fatigue, distrust of public health officials, and an overall return to normal life left many unenthused about last year’s booster and contributed to the low uptake rates. And while the US government previously bought doses directly and helped distribute them for free, the distribution of vaccines is now expected to move to the private sector.

Officials are unlikely to roll out wide-ranging restrictions on masking and social distancing—and barring a threatening new subvariant or a massive peak in cases, people are unlikely to change their behaviors after living alongside the virus for more than three years. It’s too soon to know whether the latest Covid-19 cases are a blip or a big wave. But as the dog days of summer linger, Covid is hanging around too.

[kamreadsandrecs]

Amanda Hoover

It’s the summer tradition no one wants to partake in: Covid-19 cases are on the rise again. Hospitalizations from the virus ticked up in mid-July, increasing by 12 percent to just over 8,000 across the US for the week ending July 22. That’s nowhere near the pandemic peaks that overwhelmed health workers, but July brought the first weekly increases in hospitalizations since the US ended the federal Covid-19 public health emergency in May, just a week after the World Health Organization did the same with its global public health emergency.

The end of Covid-19 emergency status meant the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stopped tracking the virus as closely. But metrics show infections are still spreading. The pharmacy chain Walgreens reported a 42 percent positivity rate for tests during the last week of July, up from 29 percent in late June. And wastewater samples show concentrations of the virus moving upward across the country. Cases of Covid have also increased in Japan and the United Kingdom.

SARS-CoV-2 has spiked every summer since 2020. “There’s no reason that we wouldn’t see [a wave] this summer,” says Katelyn Jetelina, who writes the online health newsletter Your Local Epidemiologist. “We’re slowly but surely starting to see one summer wave and one winter wave.”

But experts have a hazier view of the building wave than in prior years. In the US, publication of hospitalization data comes a week behind the dates it captures. The CDC no longer tracks community levels of transmission. When the WHO emergency declaration was in effect, we saw more cross-government communication, but that’s less available now. “Our magnifying glass is a bit smudged compared to where we were a year ago,” says Josh Michaud, an associate director for global health policy at KFF, a nonprofit research group. “Many of the data points and indicators that we relied on in the past are no longer available to us.”

But there are still signs to watch. Wastewater testing, which can find traces of the virus expelled in feces, has shown a “sustained” increase in Covid-19 concentrations over several weeks, says Mariana Matus, CEO and cofounder of Biobot Analytics, a company that tracks Covid-19, Mpox, and opioids in US wastewater. The data from Biobot Analytics draws from about 600 wastewater data collection points and is valuable, Matus says, because it doesn’t exclude people who can’t afford testing or don’t report the results of at-home tests—and it can show the presence of Covid-19 in a community before large numbers of people get test results or are hospitalized.

But ensuring a bigger picture will require additional steps, such as expanding wastewater sampling. The decision to test wastewater largely relies on individual communities opting do their own testing. Matus imagines a more robust system that could help people make decisions based on pathogen concentrations in different regions, analogous to the Air Quality Index—data that could be easily displayed on something equivalent to a weather app. “We’re very excited about a vision and a future where people interact with wastewater data similar to how they interact with weather data, where it’s that pervasive in our society,” Matus says.

At this point, it’s too early to say there’s a massive wave of infections building—but the hospitalization data is enough to pique the attention of epidemiologists and public health experts. Although case and hospitalization numbers are still relatively low, the virus does kill hundreds of people in the US each week. And as of early 2023, it had left an estimated one in 10 survivors fighting long Covid, which can include persistent health issues like breathlessness and brain fog.

There could be a few reasons for the current uptick in cases, waning immunity among them. Just around 17 percent of the US population has received bivalent vaccines, which became widely available in the fall of 2022 and are meant to offer better protection against Omicron variants. With lower case numbers over the past few months and many people not receiving a booster shot in 2023, immunity from vaccinations and prior infections could be decreasing, making more people susceptible to the virus, says Sam Scarpino, director of AI and life sciences at the Institute for Experiential AI at Northeastern University.

Experts guessed that Covid-19 would become seasonal, peaking in the fall and winter like the flu and the common cold, but other factors have kept the virus around in warmer months. “It’s true that you have cyclical patterns for most of these respiratory diseases,” Scarpino says. “I don’t think it’s really well understood what drives those.”

There could be some particular factors at play this year. Much of the US is enduring a suffocating summer. Wildfire smoke from Canada has engulfed the East Coast and Midwest, and exposure to the particulate pollution that comes with the smoke may weaken the immune system. Those were the findings of a 2021 study: In 2020, parts of California, Oregon, and Washington that experienced wildfire smoke saw excess Covid-19 cases and deaths. Meanwhile, dangerously high temperatures are keeping people indoors in the southern part of the US, and as a respiratory virus, SARS-CoV-2 spreads most easily indoors. People also traveled at record rates during the summer’s early months, which meant more opportunities for Covid to spread. But it’s not yet clear whether one, all, or none of these factors may be driving infections.

Genomic sequencing from the CDC shows that, as of June, offshoots of the Omicron variant are responsible for all of Covid-19 cases in the US. “On one hand, this is a good sign,” says Jetelina. “We can hopefully predict where SARS-CoV-2 is going.” That’s helpful for formulating updated coronavirus vaccinations. But it’s not certain that the virus’s evolution will continue down this Omicron path. In May, experts estimated the possibility of a highly mutated variant of concern arising during the next two years at about 20 percent.

In June, the US Food and Drug Administration recommended the development of an updated Covid-19 shot, preferring a formula that would target the XBB.1.5 Omicron variant. The FDA may authorize such a shot by the end of the month. But it’s hard to know whether people will be eager to get a fifth or sixth vaccine—pandemic fatigue, distrust of public health officials, and an overall return to normal life left many unenthused about last year’s booster and contributed to the low uptake rates. And while the US government previously bought doses directly and helped distribute them for free, the distribution of vaccines is now expected to move to the private sector.

Officials are unlikely to roll out wide-ranging restrictions on masking and social distancing—and barring a threatening new subvariant or a massive peak in cases, people are unlikely to change their behaviors after living alongside the virus for more than three years. It’s too soon to know whether the latest Covid-19 cases are a blip or a big wave. But as the dog days of summer linger, Covid is hanging around too.

[denimbex1986]

'Barbie and Oppenheimer are both making big waves at the box office despite releasing at the same time. As the post-pandemic box office continues to recover, slowly climbing back towards the kind of theatrical revenue numbers experienced in 2019, big hits like Barbie and Oppenheimer are incredibly important wins for the future of the theatrical experience, but they're not the most important factor in a proper theatrical recovery, and their success may even expose some of the biggest challenges to the health of the post-pandemic box office.

After seemingly hitting rock bottom in 2020, the box office has experienced some big wins on its road to recovery, including some new all-time box office record-setting performances like Top Gun: Maverick becoming the fifth-highest-grossing movie of all time at the domestic box office (12th-highest globally), Spider-Man: No Way Home becoming the seventh-highest-grossing movie globally, and Avatar: The Way of Water becoming the third-highest-grossing movie globally. Despite numerous record-setting box office performances since 2020, including Barbie and Oppenheimer, the box office is still missing a key factor behind the success of the pre-pandemic box office.

The Box Office is Shrinking (And it Started Before the Pandemic)

The box office is slowly improving after hitting historic lows during the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2020 box office dropped $30 billion from a record-setting 2019. In 2021, it increased over 100 percent, but was still down 60 percent from 2019. In 2022, it surged 60 percent, but still came up short of 2019's numbers by 35 percent. The first half of 2023 was up nearly 20 percent over the first half of 2022, yet it's still down over 22 percent from the first half of 2019, partially from a much-smaller 381 movie release calendar in the first half of 2023 vs. 670 from the first half of 2019.

It's important to note ticket sales had already been declining for several decades before the pandemic and that any box office revenue increases seen year-over-year were largely due to increases in ticket prices and inflation. Despite 18 years of consecutive growth at the domestic box office from 1986 to 2004, the years since have struggled to see back-to-back years of revenue growth. 2023 is on track to become the first time the box office has grown for three consecutive years since 2004, only thanks to the massive pandemic crash that preceded it. The last time the box office fell below 2022's $7.37 billion domestic total was 1999's $7.34 billion (without adjusting for inflation).

Oppenheimer and Barbie Led a Massive Box Office Surge

The head-to-head release of Barbie and Oppenheimer on July 21st resulted in some historic box office earnings as both movies drew huge audiences, including the viral trend of "Barbenheimer" double-features. While Barbie won the weekend with a $162 million opening, Warner Bros.' biggest opening in seven years. Oppenheimer set its own record as the biggest R-rated opening since Joker, and Nolan's biggest non-Batman opening with $82.5 million. Combined, Barbenheimer earned $235 million total, the first time in history two movies have opened over $80 million in the same weekend.

Barbenheimer led the charge for the biggest weekend so far in 2023 with a total domestic gross of $311.3 million across all releases. After Barbie and Oppenheimer, Sound of Freedom came in third place with $19.8 million and Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One came in fourth place with $19.4 million, followed by a variety of other recent releases like Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Insidious: The Red Door, Elemental, and more all earning under $7 million. As the 29th weekend of 2023, it out-earned the equivalent weekend from all previous years, coming in ahead of the previous record holder, Jul 19-21, 2019, with $263.9 million, led by The Lion King.

Blockbusters Are Becoming a Bigger Portion of Box Office

Prior to the pandemic, box office revenue was slowly climbing despite steadily decreasing ticket sales, but also more and more movies were hitting monolithic box office achievements as the blockbuster movies gobbled up a larger and larger percentage of box office. This is most evident by looking at the opening weekend of each of the highest-grossing movies every year as a percentage of the gross box office in their respective opening weekends. A quick glance at the highest-grossing movies of all time reveals that almost all the top 10 box office-earning movies were released in the last decade, but a closer look at the data reveals an even more concerning trend.

Calculating the revenue of the highest-grossing movies as a percentage of the gross box office in their respective opening weekends reveals recent movies like Avatar: The Way of Water, Avengers: Endgame, and Spider-Man: No Way Home accounted for nearly 90 percent of the box office in their opening weekends, while Avatar (2009) and The Dark Knight (2008) were 55-60 percent, and going back even further, Mission Impossible II (2000) was 53 percent, and Titanic (1997) was just 30 percent. This shows smaller movies used to account for a much larger share of the box office, but now the biggest blockbusters often account for as much as 90 percent of revenue.

This is accompanied by a sharp decrease in the number of movies released every year since the pandemic. In the first six months of 2019, 670 movies were released theatrically. In 2020 that number plummeted to 276, and has slowly grown to 381 in the first six months of 2023, barely more than half as many as 2019. Despite the thinner release calendar, average revenue per movie from the first half of 2023 is $11.5 million, 36 percent higher than the $8.4 million from 2019. Inceases are usually a good sign, but in this context, it's clear the change comes at the cost of smaller films as blockbusters dominate the theatrical landscape.

Why Barbie and Oppenheimer Aren't Enough On Their Own

Barbie and Oppenheimer are big, much-needed successes, and a pleasant return to an era where the box office was distributed among many different movies like it was a few decades ago, but this just proves how dire the current circumstances are. While this kind of box office behavior was to be expected a few decades ago, it's increasingly rare now. Even before the pandemic, the box office was dominated mostly by monolithic successes, most of which earn front-loaded box office hauls. Ideally, the Barbenheimer performance followed by long-tail legs would define a healthier box office, but things are moving in the opposite direction.

Blockbusters are an integral part of the box office landscape, but it's clear that the ere where the box office saw meaningful year-over-year growth with the distribution of box office revenue spread among many movies is over. The box office is more concentrated than ever in 2023. In 2019, over 50% of the total box office came from movies making under $300 million and nearly 35% came from movies making under $100 million. Barbie and Oppenheimer are certainly pulling more than their own weight, but their success is the exception that proves the rule and highlights the lack of success down the food chain.

The best sign of a true box office recovery won't just be measured by the total box office revenue being generated by the movies at the top, but a healthy selection of movies across multiple genres and budget levels all seeing success together. Since Oppenheimer and (to a lesser extent) Barbie could be seen as somewhat "mid-budget" movies, their simultaneous success is certainly at least a partial step in the right direction, but the way they crowded out most of the other movies in theaters shows just how much growth the box office truly needs to see a proper recovery.'

[mariacallous]

The comeback claimed by Boyko Borissov reflects the disarray in the ranks of his opponents and their failure to offer voters clear choices. But can he now claim power?

For the past two years, Bulgaria looked to have well and truly called time on Boyko Borissov.

A three-time prime minister since 2009, Borissov and his GERB party suffered a wave of anti-government protests in 2020, was widely criticised for its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and then lost three elections in 2021 – two parliamentary and one presidential.

Then autumn 2022 brought a comeback. On October 2, GERB won Bulgaria’s fourth general election in 18 months, marred by record low turnout.

With a fraction over a quarter of the popular vote, GERB is in pole position for talks on forming a coalition government. Borissov, however, owes such success less to GERB’s popularity than to the disarray of others and the disillusionment of voters.

Analysts say he faces a daunting task to secure a majority in parliament, and, if he does, to make it last.

“This is a crisis of an organic nature, which adopts its own logic and could continue for a long time,” said Strahil Deliyski, a political commentator and assistant professor at Sofia University.

Lack of clarity

GERB won 25.3 per cent of votes in the election, ahead of We Continue the Change, which led the previous government, on 20.2 per cent. Turnout, however, was just 39 per cent, reflecting widespread apathy after years of political crisis, polarisation and inconclusive elections.

That 63-year-old Borissov should make a comeback comes as no surprise, say analysts. But it’s no thanks to GERB’s own programme.

“GERB is first again mostly because the alternatives to Borissov are modest, whether we like it or not,” said political commentator, novelist and theatre director Peter Dentchev.

“Crises should be used as occasions for clearly manifested positions and ideas but in Bulgaria we confuse procedurality with politics,” he told BIRN. 

The former government – an uneasy alliance of pro-Western reformists, populists and the pro-Russian old guard – frequently gave out contradictory messages while in office, and the election campaign provided little clarity as to where the parties really stand.

Talk of eradicating corruption and reforming the judiciary failed to gain traction with voters, while Borissov regaled the GERB constituency with claims about progress and political tranquillity in the 2010s when he dominated the political scene. 

But it was not just about punchy slogans, said Dentchev. “For example, nobody, even the party members themselves, can exactly pinpoint where We Continue the Change lies on the right-left spectrum,” he said.

Dentchev believes the same can be said of other parties too, including the far-right, pro-Russian Revival, which registered its best election result yet.

“They are not outspoken about how they will make their nationalist ideals work but just exploit the Russophile ressentiment that continuously tell us that the West and the European Union will erase our traditional values and so on – but with no actual politics offered,” he told BIRN.

Politicians of the past criticised what they saw as a lack of healthy debate or clear-cut messages.

“Politicians are paralysed by fear that they will lose the citizens’ trust or that they will hurt somebody’s interests – and certain interests must be challenged, especially those of the whole mafia structure that’s instilled in the state institutions,” Ivan Kostov, prime minister between 1997 and 2001, said in a radio interview on October 8. 

“The level of understanding of what politics consists of is still very low in Bulgaria,” he said. “Most politicians are only communicating through endless exchanges of fire between them instead of seeing themselves as players with specific roles in the political theatre.”

“Different opinions should be challenged through argumentation not through ostracising.”

Pressure to form cabinet, even if short-lived

Such lack of vision may be evident in the bind Borissov now finds himself in.

After welcoming the ousting of Petkov’s reformist cabinet in June, the GERB leader is now trying to cosy up to precisely those pro-European parties that led the government.

His first moves were not to seek alliance with Revival or GERB’s traditional partners in the Movement for Rights and Freedoms – a party mired in corruption allegations – but to make overtures to Petkov’s We Continue the Change and its allies in Democratic Bulgaria.

He called Revival “proper, serious people” with whom it would be “easy to govern.” But in the same breath, Borissov lamented their ideological differences. “They want to initiate referenda to take us out of the EU and NATO, to not get involved in entering the Eurozone and stop any aid to Ukraine. After all, this is opposite to our main programme points.”

Perhaps trying to reinvent himself, particularly in the eyes of Brussels, Borissov has instead spoken of the need to initiate a “Euro-Atlantic coalition” in Bulgaria and declared it is time to see “Who’s with Putin and who’s not.” 

As journalist and editor Angel Petrov wrote in an op-ed on October 7, such talk “could be a manoeuvre to draw votes from We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria, but it is a new development in an environment where the fragmented political life has made the public discourse rather inward-looking.” 

Deliyski, of Sofia University, said he was unconvinced by Borissov’s call for a “Euro-Atlantic coalition” given that, in theory at least, most parties are supportive of the EU and against Russia’s war in Ukraine, albeit to varying degrees.

But it is still possible that unlikely looking partners could yet enter alliance together given that, on economics and tax policy, there is little between the main parties, he told BIRN.

Deliyski identified four factors currently in play: public expectations that political parties should break the cycle of snap elections; worry among some parties about losing voters; the expectations of foreign allies for Bulgaria to improve its military capabilities; and the desire among some party people with significant business interests to see Bulgaria pass certain laws in order to unlock EU funds.

“Most of these factors indicate that a cabinet, even if short-lived, is needed,” said Deliyski. “Not that risks for the future of Bulgaria will be less if there is a government: after all, the current political players are all in a desperate state. They are losing the ability to regulate social tensions.”

[ennovance]

Terrible…

China, birthplace of COVID, lays tracks for a new #globalhealth crisis

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/global-pandemic-bats-deforestation/

🇨🇳China Braces For New Covid Wave With Up To 65 Million Weekly Cases

https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/china-braces-for-new-covid-19-wave-with-up-to-65-million-weekly-cases-16728131.htm #COVID19 #virus #tailrisk #BLACKSWAN #philly #phl #Philadelphia #publichealth #RiskManagement @Reuters @PHLPublicHealth @PhillyInquirer

The economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States will reach $14 trillion by the end of this year, our team of economists, public policy researchers and other experts estimate. That makes it by far the costliest disaster the country has suffered this century.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-05-15/covid-pandemic-us-economic-costs-14-trillion #pandemic #COVID19 #virus #tailrisk #BLACKSWAN #philly #phl #Philadelphia #publichealth #RiskManagement #MemorialDay2023 @WSJ @PHLPublicHealth @PhillyInquirer @latimes

China, Once Pioneer of Zero Covid, Shrugs Off Looming Wave 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-once-pioneer-of-zero-covid-shrugs-off-looming-wave-2485e089

🏋️‍♂️The Covid Emergency Is Over. Covid’s Still Here. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/nyregion/ny-covid-emergency.html #COVID19 #virus #tailrisk #BLACKSWAN #philly #phl #Philadelphia #publichealth #RiskManagement #MemorialDay2023 @WSJ @PHLPublicHealth @PhillyInquirer

🏢 Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre-covid forecasts

Attributing this increase to covid would make it the fourth-leading cause of death

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/05/23/our-model-suggests-that-global-deaths-remain-5-above-pre-covid-forecasts #COVID19 #virus #tailrisk #BLACKSWAN #philly #phl #Philadelphia #publichealth #RiskManagement #MemorialDay2023 @PHLPublicHealth @PhillyInquirer