#Bonemar kids

[pawnshopsouls]

Bronté in 3 prospectives!

//I haven’t done and Adult!Bronté and since I wanted to try designing Changeling!Bronté too, I thought I’d give this a shot!

//HE LOOKS SO MUCH LIKE GUNMAR — GUNMAR SHOULD BE PROUD!!

//More info about Bronté and his Changeling!Au here!

[hs-freeloader-blog]

Deconstructing a Loss

I’ve been a coach for a long time (not for Hearthstone, but for youth sports), and I’ve always been a big proponent of video analysis - especially analysis of failures.  I find great value in deconstructing a loss to see if there were other choices / plays that could have been made to better our chances of a successful outcome.  With that in mind, I recently played (and badly lost) my first Best of 5 in a team league.  I recorded all 3 games of the match (yep, 0-3) with the fantastic HSReplay tracker, which allows us to review the entirety of the game WITH additional information (we can easily see our opponents draws based on the app tracking his cards in realtime and matching them up with what was played).  So, without further ado:

https://hsreplay.net/replay/HLHpRHynwaP7hPQt6pG3o3

My first pass analysis was: I played well to win the board, was in a very good position to simply dominate to a win in Game 1 of the match, but my opponent drew Aluneth and that was “GG”. After talking it over with some (much) more experienced players, a question was posited about my turn 6:

That was the board as I had established it and my opponent essentially “passed” on turn 6 to play the most game-determining card in his deck.  At this point, things don’t look too bad for me... but the longer the game goes on, the harder it will likely be for me to win.  My analysis at the time: I gotta PUSH.  I play Doomguard and it discards the Councilman and the Voidwalker... not bad! The next choice may have proven to be pivotal to the outcome of the game.  I attack with my entire board and knock my opponent to 12 life.  I am staring at two cards in hand: the Dreadlord and the Soulfire.  I have one extra mana unused this turn, and - rather importantly - my secret mage opponent HAS NO SECRET UP!  (Background: 2 secrets have already been played this game, both Explosive Runes).  My in-game read: there are likely 3 secrets left in my opponent’s deck: two counterspells and one ice block.  That means that the next secret to be played is 66% likely to make the soulfire a dead in hand resource (it’s the only spell in the deck... there’s another, so maybe I top deck it and get to play one of the two). The result of this decision is pretty easy to watch in the above linked replay: he gets a crystal runner, frost bolts the Doomguard, kills my chain gang, and races for the win.

Here’s the 64K question: If I had chosen to hold the Soulfire, it would have allowed me to play another big minion as opposed to HOPE to draw another big minion... would that have given me a better chance for lethal? AS PLAYED

First, let’s analyze my outs as played.  The next turn my opponent plays a secret (to keep this analysis simpler, we will only evaluate Ice Block and Counterspell as the possibilities, since those are the two secrets played alongside Runes in MOST secret build currently).  

I had 19 cards left in the deck, including 2 Bonemares, another Soulfire and another Doomguard.  Drawing any of those 4 cards would have meant that I could have popped the block or killed him (depending on the spell).  He left 4 attack power able to hit him with a 3/5 and a 1/2.  Bonemare on the 3/5 would have meant I could pop him at 1 life, with a 7/9 taunt now needing some attention (or, you know... kill him if the secret was Counterspell).  Doomguard would have allowed me to pop him at 2 (again, or kill him).  The other Soulfire is a little more iffy, since we don’t know about the secret... so for the sake of argument, I had a 4 in 19 chance of drawing a card that popped his one and only Ice block (~21% chance of the top deck), with 3 of those being lethal if the secret was Counterspell (~16%).  No Arcanologists were played during the game, so his secret was from draw order and not player selection based on situational benefit.  So, 21% to pop his block, 16% to win, all based on a 33% chance it’s block and a 66% chance its Counterspell.  These aren’t dominant odds, but Aluneth is a heck of a card.

IF I HOLD SOULFIRE: ASSUMING ICE BLOCK

let’s say that on Turn 6 I chose to hold the Soulfire.  The next turn, here’s how it plays out: 

His Turn 7

At 12 life, my opponent plays his Lackey, his Mana Wyrm, his Ice Block the Frost Bolt to hold my Doomguard, and the Valet to kill the Chain Gang, rubbing salt in the wound by playing a free Crystal Runner.

My Turn 7

I draw a Flame Imp, meaning that I have 7 mana worth of cards and 7 mana to play it... wow!  I start with the Imp (just in CASE it’s mirror, it cannot be Runes) which knocks my life total to 17 and then Dreadlord, finally shooting the Soulfire into his Crystal Runner.  Since we cannot pop the block this turn, we work on controlling the board: my 3/5 hits his 2/3 Wyrm to kill it, and my 1/2 goes face (Opponent now at 11).  At the end of my turn, the Dreadlord kills the 2/1 Lackey and the 5/1 Crystal Runner, it hits his Valet for one (now a 2/2).

His Turn 8

Now at 11 life, my opponent has a bit more board to have to deal with. The issue with this analysis is that we don’t know all the cards in his hand.  We know he’s played one Frost Bolt (last turn into the Doomguard) and we know he doesn’t draw one of his Fireballs until Turn 9, but if it’s Ice Block I think the right play is to simply play it as a two-turn-lethal.  I’m at 17 life, and if he went all face with what we know he has in hand (Deckhand, Firelands Portal, and the Valet on board) he can knock me to 8. If he already had the second Portal or a Fireball in hand with the second Frost Bolt, this SHOULD ABSOLUTELY be his line, since it would be a lethal I cannot stop even with a taunt - but if he only had ONE of these, perhaps he choses to control the board instead. Since he only had 11 cards left to go, and would be drawing 4 prior to his next turn, one could argue that he should take this line regardless and just play to his outs (since he’d draw so much).

But what if he goes conservative? Well, he can play the Portal to kill my Doomguard, getting a 5/5 on his side (let’s just keep the same minion as in the original), he can clear the 3/2s with his Valet and Deckhand.  That leaves me with a 1/2 and an undamaged Dreadlord and him with a 5/5. He’s at 11 and I’m at 17.

My Turn 8

I top deck a... wait for it... Kobold Librarian!  I play it, dropping to 15 life, because I NEED GAS.  I get it in the form of the most powerful card in my deck: Bloodreaver Gul’dan.  Unfortunately, this game isn’t reaching turn 10, so he’s useless.  I have 7 mana to go... you guessed it: Tap. Now at 13 life, I’ve got the badly needed Doomguard.  It’s played, discarding Gul’dan.  The 5/7 crashes into his 5/5.  I have complete board control again with a 1/2, a 2/1, a 4/5, and a 5/2.  My opponent get’s knocked 5 more from 11 down to 6.  Getting there!

Unfortunately, to get there I’m now at 13 life and I haven’t popped the block.  My opponent draws a Fireball and simply hits face and pings.  Next turn I can pop the block, but the following turn is Turn 10 and he’s drawn all but 3 of his cards needing Portal, Fireball, or Pyro - OR the combination of 2nd Lackey, ANY secret, Medivh’s Valet #2 and second Frost bolt.  Since there’s no way the bottom 3 cards can be holding all of those outs, I’m simply dead. IF I HOLD SOULFIRE: ASSUMING COUNTERSPELL

This, statistically, is the more likely scenario.  Also (as said above) since my opponent was VERY likely to have me at a 2 turn lethal starting on Turn 7 if the secret was Ice Block... I’m betting it was Counterspell.  This explains why he went through such pains to clear my board (He was dead if he didn’t!).

My Turn 7

I draw a Flame Imp, meaning that I have 7 mana worth of cards and 7 mana to play it... wow!  I start with the Imp (just in CASE it’s mirror, it cannot be Runes) which knocks my life total to 17 and then Dreadlord, finally shooting the Soulfire into his Crystal Runner which get’s countered.  Since we cannot pop the block this turn, we work on controlling the board: my 3/5 hits his the Crystal Runner as does the 1/2. At the end of my turn, the Dreadlord kills the 2/1 Lackey and the 5/1 Crystal Runner, it hits his Valet and Wyrm for one each (both now 2/2).

His Turn 8

My opponent is in a little bit of a pickle... Just kidding!  He trades both 2/2s into the Doomguard and hits the Dreadlord with the Portal.  He gets his 5/5 and the maybe drops the Deckhand to knock me down 2.  He’s still at 12 and now I’m at 15 with no board.

My Turn 8

I top deck a... wait, I’ve already written all this... Kobold Librarian!  I play it, dropping to 13 life, because I NEED GAS.  I get it in the form of the most powerful card in my deck: Bloodreaver Gul’dan.  Unfortunately, this game isn’t reaching turn 10, so he’s useless.  I have 7 mana to go... you guessed it: Tap. Now at 11 life, I’ve got the badly needed Doomguard.  It’s played, discarding Gul’dan.  The 5/7 crashes into his 5/5.

His Turn 9

I have a fearsome 5/2... he has a 2/1 just hanging on board.  My board is yet again cleared and he simply drops everything he can either into my face or onto his board.  Chance of winning: 0.

SUMMARY

We could go through and look at each possible top deck to see if there was a statistically better way to run the last few turns (in terms of chance to top deck lethal).  My in-game analysis was that I could not continue to fight for board because he was getting twice the resources I was each turn, while not taking any face damage to do so (Lifetap can be a bitch!).  In the end, I feel like I gave myself outs for the next turn (which didn’t happen, granted), but the next turn was really the only turn that I COULD have used to win.  This analysis was more to see if I had actually missed a winning line, and the answer is: nope.  The only real winning line I see is top decking Doomguard or either Bonemare on Turn 7, and the only way those top decks are game winning is if my opponent is within striking distance... and that’s where the Soulfire on 6 decision happened.

I guess I should feel better that I didn’t misplay into a loss, but knowing that I was playing a 60% favored matchup and lost still stings.  I do think looking at these kinds of choices and there possible outcomes is a VERY good thing for any aspiring player to do - especially in a case like this because at the time I did not think there WAS another choice... hearing someone else pitch one opened my mind up to other lines that I was clearly overlooking in the moment, and not running the analysis now would mean that the next time I found myself in that situation... well, I’d wonder what to do!