#Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis

[recentlyheardcom]

Bitcoin Crashes To $64,000: Will This Historical Support Hold?

On-chain data shows Bitcoin is retesting a historically significant support level after the latest plunge in the asset’s price has gone through. Bitcoin Is Currently Retesting The Short-Term Holder Realized Price As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a new post on X, BTC has returned to the Realized Price of the short-term holders with its drawdown. The “Realized Price” here…

[coineagle]

Bitcoin Bull Cycle: Insights from Global M2 Money Supply Patterns

Key Points

Bitcoin’s potential surge is anticipated as global M2 money supply increases.

Strong on-chain metrics and historical trends favor Bitcoin’s potential uptrend.

Bitcoin [BTC], the top cryptocurrency, is currently in a state of uncertainty among various market participants. This is particularly true as the market anticipates improved conditions in the final quarter.

Bitcoin and Global M2 Money Supply

Historically, a surge in Bitcoin has been observed whenever the global M2 money supply has increased. Now that the global M2 has turned positive, a potential bull run is anticipated. This would be similar to the ones observed in late October 2023 and early January 2024, during which Bitcoin reached new all-time highs.

At the time of writing, BTC/USDT appears to be correcting in a bullish flag pattern. Another surge in Bitcoin could be on the horizon, with the expected Federal Reserve rate cut being a key factor.

Bitcoin’s Trading Range

Currently, Bitcoin is trading near the middle of its price range within a descending trend channel. A breakout to the upside could lead to a push towards the top of the channel and a potential breakout. The lower boundary is at $51k, while the upper resistance is at $66k.

Despite the consolidation, Bitcoin’s strength remains evident, especially as the bears have been unable to break the lower trendline. If Bitcoin breaks the upper trendline and stays above it, Bitcoin’s price could see a significant rally, potentially pushing it to new highs.

Market Sentiment and Accumulation

The MVRV z-score, an indicator of market sentiment, suggests that Bitcoin has been gradually declining while the network’s average on-chain cost basis has increased. This indicates low unrealized profits in the market, leaving more room for upward movement.

Furthermore, the number of Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC is nearing a new all-time high. This suggests that long-term holders, often referred to as “strong hands,” are accumulating Bitcoin, supporting the case for higher Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin’s short-term holder net position change indicates that many recent buyers are now leaving. This is often a sign of market capitulation, signaling a potential bottom. When short-term holders capitulate, it often precedes a Bitcoin price surge.

In light of strong on-chain metrics and historical trends favoring an uptrend, Bitcoin’s price is poised for potential growth. This could be realized if global market conditions improve and the Federal Reserve implements a rate cut.

[elian7420]

Twaao Warning: As Unrealized Losses for Short-Term Holders Increase, Bitcoin Market Faces Pressure

The latest report from Twaao Exchange highlights that Bitcoin prices have stagnated over the past six months, with investor sentiment remaining subdued. From a macro perspective, the spot price of Bitcoin is still 22% below its all-time high, which is relatively modest compared to typical bull market corrections. However, short-term holders are experiencing significant unrealized losses, making them the most vulnerable group in the current market and a potential source of selling pressure if the market declines further.

Interplay Between Investor Sentiment and Market Trends

Twaao Exchange in the report indicates that despite limited price fluctuations in recent months, investor sentiment has undergone significant shifts. The stagnation in Bitcoin price over the past six months has unsettled market participants, and recent downward pressure has exacerbated these concerns. Twaao analysts suggest that this change in sentiment may be driven by several factors, including shifts in the macroeconomic environment, insufficient market liquidity, and uncertainty about future price trends.

The market performance over the past three months shows a gradual weakening in demand for Bitcoin, leading to a notable market correction. This correction is evident not only in prices but also in trading activity. Data from Twaao Exchange reveals that as the market declined, trading volumes decreased, and unrealized losses increased, indicating that short-term holders are bearing much of the market pressure.

Challenges Faced by Short-Term Holders and Market Outlook

Short-term holders are currently facing high levels of unrealized losses, marking them as the most vulnerable group in the current market environment. Twaao Exchange notes that the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio for short-term holders has fallen below the breakeven point of 1.0, meaning that on average, new investors are holding positions at a loss. While short-term holders represent new demand in the market, their dominant unrealized losses introduce instability.

Twaao analysts believe that unless Bitcoin prices return to the cost basis for short-term holders, which is $62,400, the market is likely to remain weak. The overall market condition hinges on how these short-term holders cope with their current losses. Should these investors opt to sell assets during market downturns, it could exacerbate downward pressure, leading to further price declines.

Despite the challenges faced by short-term holders, the overall market still demonstrates resilience. Most long-term investors remain profitable at current price levels, indicating strong market fundamentals. The stable positions of long-term investors may provide support amid short-term volatility, preventing excessive panic in the market.

Market Volatility and Future Investment Strategies

Twaao Exchange suggests that while current Bitcoin price volatility is low, key indicators such as the seller risk ratio imply potential for increased volatility ahead. The current price range is nearing saturation, and market participants should closely monitor price changes and their impact on trading activity. As market liquidity tightens, the cryptocurrency market may enter a new phase of volatility.

In this context, Twaao Exchange advises investors to maintain flexibility in their investment strategies. Given the heightened risk faced by short-term holders, investors should assess their risk tolerance and adjust their portfolios accordingly based on market dynamics. Considering market uncertainties, diversification and risk management are effective strategies to protect assets in an increasingly volatile market environment.

Twaao cautions market participants that although Bitcoin prices may fluctuate in the short term due to liquidity constraints, the cryptocurrency bull market is likely to resume in the long term as market conditions improve and liquidity returns. Investors should remain patient and attentive to market signals to seize investment opportunities at the right time.

[digicloudm]

Bitcoin traders back in profit even as price slows alongside spot BTC ETF inflows

Bitcoin (BTC) price has experienced mounting demand-side pressure, causing it to rally more than 23% over the last two weeks to hit a 2-month high at $68,583 on July 22. During this uptrend, BTC climbed above its short-term holder (STH) cost basis, highlighting the “strength of the prevailing uptrend,” according to market intelligence firm Glassnode. The recent surge in BTC price above $68,000…

[blockinsider]

Bitcoin’s Potential 30% Surge and Record Highs on the Horizon with Trendline Breakout

Key Points

Bitcoin’s price could potentially see a 30% rally, reaching a new all-time high, following a trendline breakout.

The Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is at a 2.5-year low, indicating a possible end to the correction period.

Following a rally to $65,500 earlier this week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced some retracement and is presently trading around $64,500. Notably, on-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant has observed that BTC price has tested the short-term holder (STH) realized price.

Bitcoin STH activity forms a crucial indicator during bull markets, as the collective cost basis of this cohort forms long-term price support. Since the Bitcoin bull run began in early 2023, the BTC/USD pair has only dipped under the short-term realized price for a brief period. CryptoQuant suggests that another such dip is now concluding.

Bitcoin’s Potential Rally

CryptoQuant contributor J. A. Maartunn pointed out that the Bitcoin price has recently reclaimed the STH Realized Price. This is a positive sign as short-term holders often increase their positions when Bitcoin returns to their average cost basis, creating a support level.

Maartunn also noted that “since 2023, Bitcoin has twice reclaimed the short-term holder Realized Price, each time leading to gains of at least 30%”. Therefore, if Bitcoin price rallies another 30% from the current level, it could hit another all-time high, possibly exceeding $80,000.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode also reported a significant drop in profitability for the Short-Term Holder (STH) cohort over the past 30 days, with over 66% of their supply now in unrealized loss.

Bitcoin NVT Ratio at 2.5-Year Low

Crypto Analyst Michael van de Poppe has underscored the significance of the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio for Bitcoin, stating that it has reached its lowest, negative level in the past 2.5 years. This current dip is worse than during the collapse of Luna, last summer’s correction, or even after Bitcoin’s listing. Van de Poppe suggests that the correction period is over and advises investors to prepare for potential market movements.

In the past two weeks, BTC price has made substantial gains, recovering more than 20% from the lows of $53,500. One of the major catalysts has been pro-crypto US presidential candidate Donald Trump surviving a major assassination attempt last weekend. This event has increased Trump’s odds of winning the upcoming election, which is celebrated by the crypto industry.

Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows over the past two weeks, compensating for the major FUD around Mt. Gox creditor repayments.

[market-news-24]

Bitcoin whales, or large-scale investors, are holding onto their BTC, indicating strong confidence in the cryptocurrency. Recent analysis from TradingView shows robust support for Bitcoin above the $60,000 mark. This trend suggests that Bitcoin's price may remain stable, reflecting positive sentiment among major investors. Stay updated to see how this could impact the broader crypto Market. Click to Claim Latest Airdrop for FREE Claim in 15 seconds Scroll Down to End of This Post const downloadBtn = document.getElementById('download-btn'); const timerBtn = document.getElementById('timer-btn'); const downloadLinkBtn = document.getElementById('download-link-btn'); downloadBtn.addEventListener('click', () => downloadBtn.style.display = 'none'; timerBtn.style.display = 'block'; let timeLeft = 15; const timerInterval = setInterval(() => if (timeLeft === 0) clearInterval(timerInterval); timerBtn.style.display = 'none'; downloadLinkBtn.style.display = 'inline-block'; // Add your download functionality here console.log('Download started!'); else timerBtn.textContent = `Claim in $timeLeft seconds`; timeLeft--; , 1000); ); Win Up To 93% Of Your Trades With The World's #1 Most Profitable Trading Indicators [ad_1] Bitcoin recently surged past the significant benchmark of $67,000 and is steadily approaching the crucial $70,000 psychological threshold. According to an analyst on X, this uptick is notable because whales holding over 1,000 BTC are not moving their coins to exchanges. This indicates that they likely expect Bitcoin prices to spike even higher in the coming days and weeks. Whales Are Not Selling, More Gains Expected? Despite a quiet weekend, the substantial price extension earlier today has bullish traders feeling optimistic. Historically, coin holders, including whales, tend to take profits when gains are perceived as shaky. However, this current cycle shows that whales are holding onto their coins, expecting a strong price recovery. The analyst highlighted that the 30-day average of BTC held by whales is 641 BTC, which has sharply decreased from mid-2023. NewsBTC This observation suggests that whales are bullish and not swayed by short-term price movements. While this doesn’t guarantee a rapid increase, it supports the outlook that Bitcoin prices may rise further in the coming sessions. Accompanying the recent breakout above $66,000, on-chain data shows that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is also climbing. The MVRV ratio for those who've held BTC for 1 to 3 months has risen above the $66,500 mark. Bitcoin Finds Strong Support Above $60,000 Another analyst highlighted that over 530,000 BTC were traded at a price of $66,250. This point is turning into a reliable support level. If bulls can absorb the selling pressure, the $66,250 line may act as a solid platform for further gains towards an all-time high. The zone above $60,000 is seen as a strong support level, with analysts noting that the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STHCB) is rising and now stands at $60,700. NewsBTC In on-chain analysis, the STHCB is a metric that tracks the average purchase price of BTC by short-term holders, those who bought their coins within the last 180 days. Historically, the STHCB has served as a support level during bull runs and a resistance level during bear markets. Currently, the STHCB sits at $60,700 and is increasing, suggesting a potential floor for Bitcoin prices. Win Up To 93% Of Your Trades With The World's #1 Most Profitable Trading Indicators [ad_2] What does it mean that Bitcoin whales are not selling? Bitcoin whales are big investors who own a lot of Bitcoin. When they don’t sell, it usually means they believe the price will go higher or stay strong. Why is Bitcoin's strong support above $60,000 important? If Bitcoin stays above $60,000, it means there's solid backing from buyers.

This can make the price more stable and less likely to drop suddenly. How does TradingView News know Bitcoin whales are not selling? TradingView News uses data from the blockchain and trading platforms to see if large amounts of Bitcoin are being moved or sold by big investors. Can Bitcoin's support level change quickly? Yes, support levels can change due to Market news, trends, and big trades. However, strong support levels are harder to break through. What should I do if I want to invest in Bitcoin? Research well, understand the risks, and consider talking to a financial advisor. It's important to know that Bitcoin prices can go up and down a lot. Win Up To 93% Of Your Trades With The World's #1 Most Profitable Trading Indicators [ad_1] Win Up To 93% Of Your Trades With The World's #1 Most Profitable Trading Indicators Claim Airdrop now Searching FREE Airdrops 20 seconds Sorry There is No FREE Airdrops Available now. Please visit Later function claimAirdrop() document.getElementById('claim-button').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('timer-container').style.display = 'block'; let countdownTimer = 20; const countdownInterval = setInterval(function() document.getElementById('countdown').textContent = countdownTimer; countdownTimer--; if (countdownTimer < 0) clearInterval(countdownInterval); document.getElementById('timer-container').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('sorry-button').style.display = 'block'; , 1000);

[todaytrand001]

Bitcoin Rebounds After Nearing Cost Basis Of Short-Term Whales

Bitcoin has found a rebound back above the $66,000 mark following a drop towards the on-chain cost basis of the short-term holder whales. Bitcoin Drawdown Had Nearly Put Short-Term Whales Under Pressure As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, BTC’s price had neared the Realized Price of the short-term holder whales during the recent drop, but had still managed to remain…

[bitcoincables]

600 Days of Bullish Bitcoin Momentum Incoming, But There's a Catch!

Crypto analyst and trader Ali Martinez believes that Bitcoin's bull run may continue for another 600 days, following historical patterns. According to Martinez, if Bitcoin mirrors previous bullish cycles, the crypto king could reach a new market peak around October 2025. However, in the short term, Bitcoin may face some challenges due to the cost basis of short-term holders. If the price falls below a certain level, these holders may panic sell, leading to more downward pressure on the price. Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing a correction of around 21%, which has been ongoing for 12 days. Martinez suggests that this correction is part of a broader uptrend and advises investors to "buy the dip." However, if Bitcoin fails to hold a support level, it could potentially correct down to $33,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $39,718. To read the original article, please click [here](https://dailyhodl.com/2024/01/25/600-days-of-bullish-bitcoin-momentum-incoming-but-theres-a-catch-says-on-chain-analyst/). [](https://dailyhodl.com/2024/01/25/600-days-of-bullish-bitcoin-momentum-incoming-but-theres-a-catch-says-on-chain-analyst/) [](https://dailyhodl.com/2024/01/25/600-days-of-bullish-bitcoin-momentum-incoming-but-theres-a-catch-says-on-chain-analyst/) [](https://dailyhodl.com/2024/01/25/600-days-of-bullish-bitcoin-momentum-incoming-but-theres-a-catch-says-on-chain-analyst/) [](https://dailyhodl.com/2024/01/25/600-days-of-bullish-bitcoin-momentum-incoming-but-theres-a-catch-says-on-chain-analyst/)

[virtualcurrencyspace]

Bitcoin Speculators Realizing Gains

BTC price gains have delivered a welcome reward to hodlers across the board in recent days as 19-month highs appeared.

While old hands are retaining their share of the BTC supply, at the other end of the spectrum, so-called short-term holders (STHs) have been busy locking in profits on their investments.

STHs refer to entities holding a given part of the supply for 155 days or less. They correspond to the more speculative class of Bitcoin investors, and their cost basis has formed a key BTC price support in 2023.

Now, with BTC/USD up almost 15% in a week, the time has come to reassess their exposure, data shows.

According to Van Straten, the total volume transfer between STHs and exchanges — coins being prepared for sale — has come close to $5 billion in the four days to Dec. 4.

“Bitcoin recorded a 7% gain, culminating in a year-to-date peak of $38,800 by Dec. 1,” he commented.

“This milestone ignited the most considerable profit realization from short-term holders seen in recent times since November 2021.”

[metamoonshots]

Bitcoin (BTC)’s explosion to a new yearly high on Monday has placed the vast majority of investors’ holdings back into profit, according to a new report from Glassnode. The blockchain and market intelligence platform said that 4.7 million BTC flipped green after the rally, representing 24% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. Chaos In The Derivatives Market The asset’s rise was coupled with a slew of short liquidations clearing 35,000 BTC worth of open-interest from the perpetual futures market on October 23, after a similar 25,000 BTC liquidation on October 17. Glassnode compared the event to a similar short-squeeze in January, which took Bitcoin past $20,000 for the first time in months. Broken down by geography, data from K33 research showed that perpetual OI shark by 26,735 BTC on offshore exchanges, while it rose by 4,380 BTC in CME-regulated venues. Meanwhile, the options market has exploded, with open interest in call options registering an 80% rise by $4.3 billion. High open interest in call options is thought to indicate bullish market sentiment. “This is a relatively new development in Bitcoin market structure, where options markets are now of a comparable scale to futures,” wrote Glassnode. Passing Key Price Thresholds Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s rally took it above two important “cost-basis” levels – estimates surrounding the price at which the typical investor bought their current BTC. Firstly, the firm’s True Market Mean Price estimate currently sits in the rear-view at $29,780. “This model…has historically, seen the Bitcoin market trade half its time above, and half below this level,” Glassnode said. Bitcoin’s Short Term-Holder cost basis was also overcome at $28,000, putting the average recent investor into 20% profit. Despite the gains, Glassnode said that long-term investors were “impressively unaffected,” with their aggregate holdings breaking to a new all-time high of 14.899 million BTC. About 29.6% of this cohort currently holds their Bitcoin at a loss, similar to late 2015, early 2019, and the March 2020 market crash. Glassnode said this cohort may be more “hardened” and “firm-handed” than in previous cycles. “The market has crossed over several key levels where aggregate investor psychology is likely to be anchored, making the weeks that follow important to keep an eye on,” concluded the firm. SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored) Binance Free $100 (Exclusive): Use this link to register and receive $100 free and 10% off fees on Binance Futures first month (terms).PrimeXBT Special Offer: Use this link to register & enter CRYPTOPOTATO50 code to receive up to $7,000 on your deposits.

[ailtrahq]

On-chain data shows Bitcoin has failed in its latest retest of a historically significant metric, a sign that a bearish trend might have taken over. Bitcoin Has Been Rejected From The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis As pointed out by an analyst in a post on X, BTC is currently facing resistance at the short-term holder’s realized price. The “realized price” here refers to the cost basis or acquisition price of the average investor in the Bitcoin market. When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is below this level, it means that the investors as a whole are currently in a state of net loss. On the other hand, the asset being above this metric suggests that the overall market is holding some profits right now. In the context of the current discussion, the realized price of the entire BTC sector isn’t of relevance, but of only a particular segment: the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STHs are the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The members of this group are generally weak in their conviction, and thus, they can be quite reactive to changes in the market. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price specifically for these STHs over the past couple of years: Looks like the asset retested this line just recently | Source: @jimmyvs24 on X As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin short-term holder’s realized price is valued at about $27,800 right now. During its most recent attempt at recovery, BTC retested this line but ended up finding some major resistance at it. The indicator actually has a lot of history of acting as both resistance and support for the spot price of the cryptocurrency. Generally, this line has helped the asset during bull rallies, while it has impeded it in bear markets. From the chart, it’s visible that the asset’s price had found resistance at this mark and had remained under it throughout the bear market in 2022. With the rally that started in January of this year, though, the coin had finally managed to find a break. The realized price of the STHs had then flipped towards being a support level, as it had propelled the asset during the retests in March and June. With the crash in August, however, Bitcoin once again slipped below the line and has been unable to climb back above it since. Given the significance of the line, the latest retest of the indicator was quite important, so the fact that it ended in failure could be a worrying sign for the asset, as it may mean that a shift back towards a bearish trend might have occurred. BTC Price Retests like the one of the STH realized price can sometimes take a while to properly finish, but since Bitcoin has seen a steep decline towards the $26,700 level since the rejection, it may be confirmation that the asset was indeed rejected this time. The price of the coin seems to have been going down in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

[recentlyheardcom]

Bitcoin Forming A Signal That's Usually "Very Bullish," Analyst Says

An analyst has identified how Bitcoin is again above the price foundation of the short-term holders, an indication that may be bullish for the asset. Bitcoin Is Again Above The Realized Value Of Brief-Time period Holders As defined by CryptoQuant neighborhood supervisor Maartunn in a brand new publish on X, BTC has reclaimed the Realized Value of the short-term holders. The “Realized Value” right…

[coineagle]

Why Bitcoin Could Plunge to $54K – The Key Factors at Play

Key Points

Bitcoin’s short-term holders’ average cost basis indicates a potential local top for the cryptocurrency.

Whale accumulation trends and other metrics suggest a continued downtrend for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is projected to maintain a downward trend in the forthcoming weeks. This is indicated by the average cost basis of short-term holders, which suggests a potential local peak for Bitcoin (BTC).

Bitcoin’s Volatile Movements

Over the past few days, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility. On August 21st, it peaked at $61.8k, only to drop to $59.7k a few hours later. These fluctuations could be attributed to the liquidity pools that have accumulated around BTC recently.

The cumulative liq levels delta was significantly positive, indicating a short-term price pullback to flush out overeager bulls.

Short-term Holder Cost Basis as a Barrier

CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci suggested that the realized prices of short-term Bitcoin holders could be used to identify resistance zones. These are individuals who have held BTC in their wallets for less than 155 days.

Kesmeci observed that the 1-3 month BTC holding group had an average cost basis of $64k, while the 3-6 month group had an average cost basis of $66k. With market prices below this zone, most of these holders were likely incurring losses.

Therefore, a price increase into this area would likely prompt underwater holders to exit the market at near break-even, potentially increasing selling pressure.

Whale Accumulation/Distribution Trends

Wallets holding between 10k-1M BTC witnessed a sustained accumulation phase from early December 2023 to late January 2024. During this time, the price of Bitcoin appreciated by 16%.

By March, BTC had increased by another 70%, but this was accompanied by the BTC whale cohort (those with more than 10k coins) distributing and taking profits during the rally.

This whale cohort has been in a distribution phase for the past six weeks, despite Bitcoin’s price performance not being strongly bullish. This implies an anticipation of a price dip and continued downtrend.

The 1-month liquidation heatmap more clearly illustrates the range potential. The substantial liquidity at $63k, $67k, and $70k is likely to attract prices in the coming weeks. However, the liquidity built up at $54k and $49k are also significant magnetic zones. Currently, the price action and whale accumulation trends do not favor a breakout past $66k.

[dotengine]

$28,100 Next Level To Break For Bitcoin, Here's Why

On-chain data suggests the $28,100 level could be the next major resistance to break for Bitcoin if history is anything to go by. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Is Valued At $28,100 Currently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC price has recently neared the short-term holders’ realized price. The “realized price” is a metric that basically represents the cost basis…

[digicloudm]

Bitcoin price hits bull market trendline that last sparked 30% gains

Bitcoin faces a battle for a key bull market trendline, which it lost for the first time in nearly a year in June. Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin (BTC) price action retesting the short-term holder (STH) realized price. BTC price sends short-term holders into the black Bitcoin STH activity is a key point of reference during bull markets, as the aggregate cost basis…

[netgainers]

On-chain data shows that the bitcoin short-term holder cost basis has now increased to $25,300; Here's what it tells us about the market. Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis increased recently According to data from on-chain analytics firm glass... netgainers.org