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jamielea81 · 5 years ago

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When We Were Young

Chapter 1

Description: Leaving the only home your daughter had ever known wasn’t part of the grand plan. But then again, sometimes taking chances can change your whole life. And you should know that, you’ve been doing that since the start.

Pairing: Chris Evans x Reader

Warnings: Slight angst, maybe a curse word or two.

Word Count: 2,271

A/N: Super nervous about this one. As always, this is strictly for fun as I know nothing about the personal life of Chris Evans. This series takes place in 2018.

*Italics are internal thoughts*

This is it. This…is…it. Okay, deep breath. Plaster on that smile.

“We’re almost there,” you sing-songed.

“Mom…” your daughter Ellie groaned.

Turning your head to the side, your co-pilot was currently nose deep in a book.

Better than her phone.

She’s a great kid and you really couldn’t complain. At fifteen you were pulling away from your parents as were most of your friends. It had been the two of you for so long that you were closer than ever. She didn’t keep secrets from you and you didn’t keep any from her. That had been your deal for years.

“I’m hoping we beat the moving truck there. Would hate to pay them to sit around,” you said eyeing the clock on the dash.

“It’s a moving truck and you don’t exactly have a light foot,” she replied, tucking in a bookmark and setting her book on her lap.

“What are you implying Ellington?” Smirk ever-present in your voice.

“It’s just that you tend to speed mother dear. When we were on the open roads in North Carolina that was one thing, but I don’t think you’ll get away with that in Boston.”

“Just wait until you start driving. You’re going to be worse than me!” you laughed. “But your probably right.”

“Don’t forget to sign me up for classes. You promised after the move you’d enroll me.”

“I know and I will. Let’s just get the school tour and the first few days of classes settled first. One step at a time,” you replied, giving her a soft smile.

Where did the time go?

“And are you ready?” she questioned.

“Ready for what?” you asked, small frown appearing on your lips.

“You’re new job. The new house. It’s an entirely different part of the country. It’s a lot,” Ellie sighed out. “Even I know that and I’m the one that wanted this change.” She placed her hand over your right hand that held the steering wheel.

“I’m ready.” You nodded your head because you really were. “This is for you, baby. But a little part of this is for me too. Change is good,” you said shrugging your shoulders. “That’s what they say right?” You gave her a questioning look which she chuckled at.

“Absolutely, mom,” Ellie agreed.

Despite your concern, the two of you made it to the townhome before the movers. The car was unloaded and food ordered before they even pulled up.

All of your furniture had survived the move, but now that you had it in the house, the beach vibe really wasn’t matching with the old brick row home. If your savings weren’t mostly depleted, you’d consider purchasing a new living room and dining room set. Only one box of miscellaneous knickknacks was damaged beyond repair from the move up the coast. According to your daughter, it was just an excuse to go shopping.

Ellie was tucked away in her new room organizing her clothes, promising she’d actually go to sleep in the next thirty minutes. It was a big day for her and you as she would tour her new school. The school specializing in engineering was the reason you were here. While Ellie didn’t inherit the social awkwardness you experienced in junior high and most of high school, she was also incredible smart. How your beautiful daughter turned out so well rounded only being raised by you was a bit of a mystery, but you thanked your lucky stars every night.

When Ellie came to you ten months ago with a glittery pink folder filled with the school’s brochure, a list of courses she planned to take, a breakdown of tuition cost, nearby neighborhoods, and a recommendation for one of her teachers, you knew she was serious. She had been talking about Harvard since she was nine years old when her school had a special speaker that had mentioned graduating from the esteemed university. She reminded you that when she did start her college career there, because she knew she’d get in, it would be a lot easier on you if you lived locally. Sometimes she was too smart for her own good.

Reaching out to a of couple old NYU classmate who lived in Boston was the easy part. Getting your small two-bedroom bungalow solid was the tough part. The house sat on the market for two months without so much as a nibble. The two of you got to work painting every room, replacing light fixtures, baseboards, and outlets. It paid off in the end as your house was in escrow a month later.

While you liked having a detached home, it wasn’t in the budget in Boston or in any of the surrounding suburbs. Your old classmate Hillary, who was happy to reconnect really steered you toward a row home. After searching Google for months, you found a rental in the town of Belmont that was conveniently located near Ellie’s high school. And just like that, you were saying goodbye to the only town she had ever known.

Wine. You needed wine if you were going to stop worrying and get some sleep yourself. If only you could find a wine glass. Digging through the one of three boxes labeled “dishes”, you gave up your search when you came up empty after the first box.

“A coffee cup will do.”

Filling the mug three quarters of the way full, you headed back to the couch, resting your feet up on the cushions and thought about how your lives were going to change. Ellie was excited for a new city and school, but you were sure she also held onto some anxiety on the inside as she tended to do.

When you were three months pregnant, you moved to Wilmington North Carolina with your college classmate Peter who was nice enough to offer you a place to stay. You certainly couldn’t go home to Kentucky. Not when you were pregnant and single. Not that you wanted to anyway. Wilmington is where you built your life for the last sixteen years and you missed it already.

You grew up in a very structured home. Middle child to wealthy parents who weren’t shy about how much they had. They had goals for you and for the most part, you obeyed. Piano lessons, cello lessons, dance, although, that one ended shortly after you started. Private schools, tutors, math camp, really anything that would help you succeed. You did well in school because you worked hard. Not that you had a choice really. College and then back home to work for your father’s company. No doubt they had a short list of potential husbands handpicked for you by your sixteenth birthday. You’d be engaged by twenty four, married, by twenty five, first child by twenty seven. It wasn’t what you wanted. You wanted to plan out the rest of your life, not have it planned out for you. Having a child on your own terms was very much a part of your plans.

Leaving work early after only two weeks at Hayward Financial was not on your calendar for the day. Two appointments with new clients had to be canceled with new ones set up for the following week. Receiving a call from Middlebury Engineering Academy that your daughter missed third and fourth period was most certainly not a call you expected to get. She loved school. Always had perfect attendance except for that one year where she got very sick with the flu and had to miss three days. Missing class was more painful to Ellie than the illness itself. Maybe you missed something. Maybe she wasn’t as happy as she seemed. She already had a small group of friends but maybe they weren’t good kids. You slammed your hands on the steering wheel.

“Where are you Ellington Rae?”

You had already called her cellphone three times and texted her twice as much but she wasn’t responding. Home was your first stop but she wasn’t there. The coffee shop was next. It was a favorite for the two of you, stopping there at least four days a week. Unfortunately, they hadn’t seen her. The pizza place, sandwich shop, frozen yogurt kiosk, library, that clothing boutique she had been begging you to take her to since her friend Carmen had mentioned it, all turned up empty. On the verge of tears, you pulled back into your driveway for the second time that day and called your best friend who not only felt a thousand miles away but actually was a thousand miles away in Wilmington. This was the hard part about moving somewhere new. You hadn’t met the neighbors, hadn’t introduced yourself to the parents of Ellie’s friends, barely knew her teachers. You had never felt more alone than you did at that moment.

“Gwen…” you said, voice barely holding on.

“What’s wrong? Shit. Give me a second, I’m going to step outside,” she said.

You got out of the car, walking up the stairs with the phone attached to your ear and your bag in your other hand. You pushed your shoulder up to hold the phone in place while you dug for the keys.

“Okay, tell me what’s going on.

“It was a mistake coming here,” you sobbed, dropping the keys on the kitchen island. “I miss Wilmington.”

“Oh babe. You love it there. You already told me you do,” she sighed.

“Not anymore. We’re coming home. I just need, um I just need to get out of my lease. We can stay with you right?”

“Always. But that’s not going to happen. Now tell me what’s bringing this panic on.”

“I can do this. Just act like you know what you’re doing,” Ellie said to herself, taking a big breath, straightening her shoulders, and walking out the door.

Leaving campus after second period was a lot easier than she thought it would be. Between the hustle and bustle of the hallway, watching the exits apparently wasn’t a thing teachers did. She walked three blocks from campus and ordered an Uber. The app was already on her phone from when her mom’s car got a flat and they decided to get lunch rather than sit around the repair shop. Her mom would be mad at her, but this was worth it and she would apologize for it later.

Her driver dropped her off in front of the booming convention center. She’d always wanted to go to one of these things, just never figured she’d be ditching school to do it. The building was massive with an impressive architectural roof. The engineer in her was beaming, but she wasn’t here for that. No, she was on a schedule. This was her one chance and she wasn’t going to blow it standing outside. Walking past the dozen or so smokers, she made her way inside the convention center, making a stop at the registration table to grab her credentials. While most attendees lined up early to be let in as soon as the doors were open, Ellie was not the average attendee.

Checking her phone for the time, she saw the dozen or so missed calls and texts. She was going to be in so much trouble when she got home and she honestly hated herself for making her mom worry. Ellie had an hour before she could line up for the one photograph she purchased months ago. Deciding to kill time in the vendor room seemed like the best option. Maybe she could buy something for you to make up for giving you wrinkles at an early age.

After browsing for some time, Ellie settled on two matching beaded bracelets in your favorite color for each of you. Maybe when you finally forgave her, you’d wear them and go to brunch like the two of you enjoyed doing back in Wilmington.

Combing her fingers through her hair for the fourth time, Ellie leaned to the side to check the length of the line once more. There were maybe twenty to twenty five people ahead of her, so she knew it would go fast. But if she had to hear how hot Chris Evans was one more time, she was going to scream. Ellie had rehearsed what she was going to say a million times in her head, but she wasn’t sure if she’d be able verbalize the words. An opportunity like this wouldn’t happen again, at least not one this easily.

She was led into a room with two other girls not much older than herself. They were here together and couldn’t stop giggling. Chris said hello and both said hello in unison causing Ellie to sigh.

“How do you want to pose for the photo?” Chris asked.

“Could we both hug you?” one of the girls asked.

“Yeah, that would be okay,” Chris replied, giving them each a smile which only caused them to giggle more and Ellie to roll her eyes.

After the girls said goodbye, two more people were ushered in the room behind Ellie. The assistant urged her forward to a smiling Chris.

“Hi sweetheart. How would you like to pose for our photo?” Ellie gulped in reply. “Don’t be nervous. How about I just give you a side hug?”

Ellie nodded her head as Chris wrapped his arm around her waist. She turned her head to face him, seeing that he wasn’t looking at her, but at the camera.

“You’re my dad,” she exclaimed.

Chris whipped his head to the side to face her. “What?” he whispered.

“You’re my father.”

Chapter 2

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movingcompanysouthbaywebsit-blog · 4 years ago

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That Which You May Do About Moving Company Hayward Starting Next 10 Minutes

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#movers #mover #moving company #movers and packers #moving companies

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junker-town · 6 years ago

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When Gordon Hayward plays like a star, the Celtics ARE as good as we thought

When Hayward shines, Boston looks like a juggernaut.

Gordon Hayward scored 30 points on 12-of-16 shooting in Boston’s stunning, get well, wire-to-wire, 33-point win against Golden State in Oakland on Tuesday. It was the Warriors’ worst loss at home since Nov. 28, 2009 — ironically, also 33-point loss to the Celtics — and Hayward’s production off the bench was at the center of it.

Hayward shot 12-of-16 from the field and 4-of-7 from three. He was a game-high plus-32, meaning Boston outscored Golden State by 32 in the 28 minutes he was on the floor.

Hayward scored from all over: behind the arc, at the rim, off the dribble and as a cutter. It’s the all-around game Boston’s GM Danny Ainge salivated over when he signed the former Jazz All-Star to a four-year, $128 million deal two summers ago.

@gordonhayward sparks the @celtics win in Oakland with 30 PTS off the bench! #CUsRise pic.twitter.com/SErrGlj4ES

— NBA (@NBA) March 6, 2019

Of course, in his first regular season game after signing his contract in Boston, Hayward suffered a season-ending fractured tibia and dislocated ankle. He spent a year rehabbing and a good chunk of this season matriculating back into Boston’s rotation. Above all else wrong with Boston this year, Hayward’s inability to return to being the player he was in Utah loomed large.

But after his best game of the season by a landslide, the Celtics, who had lost five of their last six games entering the win over the Warriors, suddenly look like a rejuvenated team. Kyrie Irving said it was the ball movement, and yes, Boston’s 38 assists definitely played a role in taking down the championship favorites.

But the bottom line is the Celtics look like the great team we expected when Hayward plays well

Game Score is a metric that’s a lot like Player Efficiency Rating. Basketball-Reference defines is as giving “a rough measure of a player’s productivity for a single game.” A game score of 40 is an outstanding performance. A game score of 10 registers as average.

ESPN’s Kevin Pelton was the first to point it out: Boston is really good when Hayward registers a game score of at least 14. The Celtics are 13-1 when he plays well, according to that advanced metric. They’re 20-20 when his game score is worse than 10.

Advanced statistics usually aren’t the end-all, be-all, but the numbers in this instance don’t lie. Hayward is averaging 21 points on 60 percent shooting in games with a 14 game score. That’s the kind of production the Celtics have needed from him all along. They’re incredibly good when he plays well.

After all, this is what Ainge was banking on. Irving is a supreme scorer, a killer in crunch time and a playmaker with championship pedigree. Al Horford is a defensive anchor, a ball mover, a floor spacer and post play-maker. Jayson Tatum is a star in the making. Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart have ceilings as high as they can reach.

What Boston needed to complete its lineup was a proven wing playmaker, someone who can get a bucket for himself with or without the ball. What they needed was a healthy Gordon Hayward.

Boston’s 33-point victory over the Warriors was a glimpse at what can happen when they have one.

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camillesisley-blog · 7 years ago

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Movers & Moving Companies, Oakland, California

Movers Oakland - Buy your FREE moving quote! Give us a call today for a free no obligation quotation on our moving and storage rates! We include FREE REPLACEMENT COST insurance all Total Service Ft. It cost me at least two additional hours. After several relocations around the map, one of the most valuable lessons I have learned is how to locate a good moving company and the best way to estimate the price. You ought to be extremely calm and discover out to that you simply haven't overlooked to think about something. I've had horrible nightmares in previous moves with different businesses and so grateful to find such competent solid people. We've got several queries of their own, things clients ask us. The crew was happy to take instructions from us and had answers for all our questions. Tom was residing in a shared house in Oakland, near Ashby Bart Station.

Book with the top rated local movers in Oakland, CA according to reviews and evaluations for the upcoming transfer. Don't reserve this provider. 100/each. I asked the owner of the catering firm I was working if I could use their kitchen to instruct a sushi course. For example large boxes are suitable for electric appliances, along with bulky kitchen utensils, while wardrobe sized boxes are good for holding clothing, as its name implies. Boxes are crucial component of your move. Keep costs within your budget when you choose your services from our comprehensive list! What makes us different from other Oakland Park movers is our unflinching devotion toward delivering the greatest levels of customer satisfaction. Time to check out some Oakland moving companies, then. Brandon took our petition in the last minute and showed up on time with a great crew ready to help out us.

Excellent service. Quick, attentive and showed up in time. Our rates and service are some of the best in town. Since 3000BC United States Emirates has been used primarily for agricultural land until the 90's where it's been turned to the super city it is now. The team was very professional and attentively blanket wrapped each and every piece of our furniture. Picked up on time and fell off as expected! The men took care of my things and wrapped everything suitably. 3. Office followed the day following my move was complete. 9. EZ Express following day long distance shipping (Eastern U.S. Expert moving businesses in bhopalunderstand the sophistication of long distance transfer and automobile shipping. Each phase of the movement was orchestrated and hauled to the client. The unique thing about my transfer is that, ABF costs by the distance employed at the Trailer, so I asked Brian to load and pack the trailer as tight as possible to save a little space. Too many add-on charges and also the movers need additional instruction. What more could I say?

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betterbayconstructionus · 7 months ago

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Complete Remodeling Guide: Floor To Ceiling Transformation Through Home Remodeling Orinda

A general contractor California provides many unique services that are crucial for a smooth remodeling process including hiring subcontractors, securing permits, estimating costs, offering design support, sourcing materials, overseeing construction, and timely completion with cleanup. Top-to-bottom remodeling involves everything from false ceilings to floor tiling, which is why the use of proper equipment and high-quality materials by responsible contractors is a must!

5 Steps For A Remodel Of Your Dreams

Hayward Home Remodeling understands the importance of a structured, step-by-step process to complete remodeling. Here is what we recommend you do!

Set A Budget

Setting a budget is all about knowing where to allocate how much money. It not only helps us stay on top of our finances but also gives us a direction for our plans.

When we set a budget it is also important to highlight a ‘ budget buffer’. This refers to the amount of money we cut off from the actual budget and keep for extra expenses!

Every house remodeling contractor California is already used to working on different budgets and delivering appropriate, value-for-money results! So it is a must that we are transparent about our monetary constraints.

Conduct A Property Audit

Since you are undertaking large-scale changes to be made at almost every part of your house, it is a good idea to conduct a complete home audit to identify the top areas of concern.

After you have inspected and detected problem areas, you can always add some cosmetic interior choices to the mix and create your remodeling design plan. Usually, the main places that need attention are the bathrooms, kitchen, backyard, and roof.

Select a Contractor

Depending on your location and budget, you will easily be able to shortlist several companies offering home remodeling Orinda solutions. Now start ranking them according to expertise and review!

When selecting a home remodeling contractor, consider their experience, reputation, and credentials.

Next, we must also ensure they are licensed, and insured, and provide detailed contracts that our lawyers approve of. It is always a good idea to ask for consultancy from multiple companies so that you can negotiate prices and select the best in the market!

Once you have found your dream contractor, start explaining your design plan to them and understand their opinions about the feasibility of your choices.

Start with The Remodeling

The actual process of transforming your home will naturally be undertaken by a professional construction company California. As per your directions, this team will start with demolishing certain areas of your interior and exterior.

Following this, insulation will be installed and walls will be painted. You can select experimental wall textures and wallpapers at this stage.

The team will then move on to installing carpentry finishes including doors, windows, modular furniture, and lighting. You can carefully choose from wooden, iron, and silicon designs as well as pick out light fixtures of your choice.

Finally, countertops and tiles will be set up. Make sure to leave you the changes every step of the way so that you can suggest upgrades that can be made on the spot!

Final Thoughts

A complete floor-to-ceiling remodeling is the result of combined efforts put forth by construction contractors California, carpenters, local building inspectors, interior designers, cleaners and movers, insurance companies, etc. The successful conclusion of a remodeling project depends on attention to detailed and thorough communication between all involved parties. Which company would you select and why?

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shervonfakhimi · 7 years ago

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The Next 70 Piece? (3-25-17)

No, this is not fake news. 2nd year guard Devin Booker actually scored 70 points in an NBA game against the Boston Celtics. Even if there was some tom-foolery action late, 70 points is 70 fucking points. Give that man his due, considering some of the greatest we’ve ever seen have never reached that mark.

https://twitter.com/BenGolliver/status/845464055070449664

And if you still don’t believe me, see it for yourself. https://twitter.com/NBA/status/845473475892428800

As I was watching UCLA-Kentucky, pondering what the heck happened in Boston on March 24, 2017, I began to wonder who else could join Booker, David Thompson, David Robinson, Kobe Bryant & Wilt Chamberlain in the 70 point club. Who’s next? Let’s find out.

Just Missed: Giannis Antetoukounmpo (Not there as a scorer/shooter… YET), Karl-Anthony Towns, Carmelo Anthony (Long live the triangle, baby!), DeMar DeRozan, Kawhi Leonard (Blame Pop), Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love, Jimmy Butler, Gordon Hayward, JR Smith (too many open 3s would be needed to get there)

1) Steph Curry/Kevin Durant/Klay Thompson - Yes, any of these 3 members of Golden State’s Death Star lineup could get there if they so desire. All 3 love to run and gun, are lethal from 3 and are able to manufacture open looks due to the amount of constant pressure and fear these guys press into the minds of the opponents. Add in the masterful passing of Draymond Green & the general unselfishness Golden State plays with, these guys can be impossible to stop. Not only that, but when one is rolling, Golden State will feed that man and get him however many points he wants. Look no further than Klay Thompson’s 60 point masterpiece (in only 3 quarters, mind you) earlier this season, or has 38 point 3rd quarter bonanza a couple seasons ago, or the constant Curry barrages we’ve become accustomed to. Durant is the best scorer in our game today and can get himself a bucket from anywhere on the court and is a master at getting to the free throw line, more so than Steph or Klay. One is going to have to be scorching hot from the get go, enough to convince the others to let him cook, but that shouldn’t even be the hardest part. The hardest part would be for Golden State to not completely blow the snot out of their opponent to even give one of these guys a shot.

2) James Harden - Quite frankly, I’m surprised this hasn’t happened yet. James Harden has fit in seamlessly and perfectly as the leader of Mike D’Antoni’s high powered, fast paced offense. The additions of Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson have spread the floor perfectly for Harden to drive and get to the rim/free throw line at will, lob it over to Capela or Nene in the pick and roll for an easy dunk, or fling cross court passes to those shooters if the defense decides to help. Though Point Harden has made a monumental leap in balancing his role as scorer and facilitator, he is still an incredible scorer to counter his facilitating, as noted by his 53 point-16 rebound-17 assist performance, of which has never before been seen in the history of the NBA. His ability to bulldoze guards, run through swipes at the ball in his quest of getting to the rim, garnering him plenty of free throw attempts, and his ability to freeze centers changing speeds all contribute in his ability to finish around the rim and get to the line. This doesn’t even include his ability to draw Lou Williams-esque fouls while in the act of shooting jumpshots. In fact, as Chris Herring of 538 so astutely pointed out, James Harden has drawn more fouls on 3 point attempt than any other NBA team as a whole has (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/james-harden-gets-fouled-on-3s-more-than-any-nba-team/).The ability to get easy free throws from anywhere on the court to go along with ample room to drive and finish and his handles to free himself from defenders and hit tough jump shots over defender, Harden has as much a chance as anybody to hit the 70 point plateau.

3) Russell Westbrook - As if Russell Westbrook needed another statistical obstacle to overcome in his 2017 revenge tour. He might not be a good enough shooter to get him the extra points to get him to 70, but by God he sure would gun for it. It’d be very Westbrookian to follow in the paths of Kobe’s ‘damn it, I’m gunning for it’ mentality when he went for 60 points on 50 shots to get up to 70. But the difference with Westbrook is, no matter how many shots he shoots or rebounds he skies for, he will still have enough energy to pull this off. Watching Westbrook reminds me of the scene from ‘Horrible Bosses’ when Jason Bateman’s character is stocking Collin Farrell’s character swing his nunchucks through a window from his car, asking himself “Where does he get this energy!?” Now, Westbrook doesn’t get his energy THAT way, rather getting it from his relentless work ethic and passion for winning. That could certainly work in his favor to get to 70. Again, he isn’t a great shooter and sometimes shoots his team out of it, but when his jump shot is falling, it doesn’t tend to stop. Also, considering Westbrook’s prowess late in close games to go with the fact he might have to single handedly will his team back with his scoring, not only could he get 70, it might provide the best theatre possible of this bunch in his quest for 70.

4) LeBron James - Yes, LeBron is not known as a scorer. He is so damn good at everything imaginable on a basketball court that his scoring goes a bit under the radar. When he isn’t going after Charles Barkley or causing a hot take hazard when he sits games out for rest, he is still torching opponents, further implementing his staple as the best player in the league. Lost though, has been LeBron’s renaissance as a shooter. In fact, he is shooting 38.1% from 3 this season, his 2nd highest mark of his career. He is more willing to shoot it from 15 feet and beyond and is nuanced enough to beat you from the post or just plow his way for a dunk as if he were Marshawn Lynch trucking guys for extra yardage. LeBron is similar to Westbrook in that their reputations do not scream that they are shooters, but can burn you with it. They’ll need to be making them though to have a chance of sniffing 70.

5) Damian Lillard/CJ McCollum - There is some Golden State-ness here in that these two might cancel each other out, but have been to cook amongst the presence of each other. Lillard is fearless on the court, not afraid to heave it from Curry-esque distances and splash it in his opponent’s eyehole. McCollum is a bit more cerebral in his approach. He has a wicked (underrated) handle, crafty around the rim and gets to his spots, primarily around the 15 foot mark for a pull-up jumpshot, at will. He’s very smooth and almost never loses the ball from speeding himself up or forces bad shots. Both are also great at moving without the ball, running off screens and cutting to the basket with enough savvy to finish among the trees. With the addition of Jusuf Nurkic to get them easy looks off the high post and Terry Stotts’ highly technical offensive system, these two have as good a chance as any to get 70. Both also showed love to Booker after it happened too.

https://twitter.com/Dame_Lillard/status/845459578611351552

https://twitter.com/CJMcCollum/status/845462905084526592

6) Anthony Davis - Davis is, with much respect to Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic, his teammate DeMarcus Cousins and Marc Gasol, the most lethal big man we have today in regards to scoring. I mean, the man dropped an unheard of 59 point, 20 rebound masterpiece against the Detroit Pistons a season ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPdJ6K2tlgY

Davis’ first step as a big man is impeccable. Plodding big men have no chance to stay in front of him to take away his high-flying floater. He uses his length and athleticism perfectly, so much so that his hand is about at the same height as the rim when he elevates & follows through with his floater. Good luck trying to stop that. Put a smaller, quicker defender on him, he’ll shoot over the top of him or plow him in the post. Not only does he have the handle to drive and finish, he’s got the midrange jumper that he can drill in his sleep. On top of that, he is a fantastic rebounder, and can use that to his advantage to get himself easy dunks. Boogie might get in the way of Davis’ quest for 70, but when he’s rolling, there might be no one else with a better chance of 70 than Anthony Davis.

7) Paul George - This may or may not be an elaborate ploy to butter up Paul George and get him to come back to his home state (In my best Princess Leia impression: Help us PG13, you’re our only hope. Rest in peace Carrie Fisher) in Purple and Gold. Fool-proof, right? Ok, probably not, but it was worth a shot. Anyway, back to George. George has had a rocky season trying to lead Indiana into a contender, but part of that is because they are a flawed roster with too many guys that can’t shoot 3s well enough to space the floor or guard anyone in their path. This is where George comes in. He has been frustrated this year, and it is entirely possible Indiana just lays an egg to the point where George just tells his team ‘give me the ball, get the hell out of my way, screen and rebound.’ George is one of the better 1v1 scorers in the league. He has enough of a handle to shake his defenders for a step back jumper, can drain it from anywhere on the floor, and is one of the more vicious finishers at the rim. He’s also a really good defender, one that can get steals jumping passing lanes or force bad shots that could lead to easy transition dunks. I wouldn’t put it past PG13 to get to 70, I just hope it comes in a Laker uniform.

9) Kyrie Irving - Kyrie’s odds for 70 are kind of similar to those of Isaiah’s. He is not as great a mover/cutter as Isaiah is when the ball isn’t in his hands, but that doesn’t really matter (at least for the quest of 70 it doesn’t) when you have some guy named LeBron James, the best passer in the game today, dishing you the rock. But when the ball is in his hands, my goodness is he electric. His handles are on a string that allow him to get anywhere he wants on the court and he is as good as anyone at contorting his body under the rim and finishing among the trees. His shooting has improved from 3 this season, along with his free throw percentage. Plus, he’s proven, when Kyrie gets hot, he gets white hot. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mi7OSaVB3fg

The Cavs have really bought in to the pace & space era of today’s NBA. The extra transition treys Kyrie gets gives him as good a chance at anyone for 70.

10) Kemba Walker - A bit of an under-the-radar pick, but the first time All Star has to be in this conversation. The transition and growth of Kemba from an inefficient scorer to well rounded point guard has been phenomenal. He is shooting career highs in both field goal (44.5%) and 3 point percentage (40.1%) this season. His progression from 3 has really been noticeable this season, as Chris Herring pointed out in this article. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kemba-walker-doesnt-care-how-close-youre-guarding-him/. No matter how close you are, if he gets any sliver of daylight, he will shoot it, and odds are, he’ll drain it. He too has also improved his midrange game and his finishing around the rim. Charlotte has been decimated by injuries this season and do not have a ton of creators on their team outside of Kemba Walker, save for Nicolas Batum. That could both work against him or work in his favor, having to pick up the slack for the people around and drop 70 out of necessity. I don’t expect Kemba to be the next to drop 70, but he at least has the energy for it, as evidenced by his 6 day attack on the Big East tournament in 2011 or his participation in UConn’s 6 overtime classic against Syracuse in 2009.

11) Bradley Beal - Another outside-the-box pick. Beal is having a career year, living up to every penny of the max contract he signed last summer. What’s been the difference with Beal this season? Not only has he become more aggressive shooting more shots, he’s been a lot more efficient doing so, a pretty healthy combination. He’s shooting a career high in: field goal percentage (48.1%), shots attempted per game (17.1), 3 point attempts per game (7.1), free throw attempts (4.5) and free throw percentage (82.3%). His 3 point percentage this season is the 2nd highest of his career (40.4%). These numbers are great, and has a premiere playmaker at his disposal in John Wall, who can get to the paint at will to collapse the defense, freeing up plenty of drive and kick opportunities to free up Beal for an open 3. Beal is excellent at running off screens in a Klay Thompson sort of manner, and is unafraid to launch open 3s in transition rather than get an easy 2. His ability to create for himself has improved this year too, whether it be out of the pick and roll for a pull up jumper or go iso. He isn’t the greatest finisher in the paint, but good enough to get his from there. Klay Thompson put out the blueprint on how to get busy without having the ball in his hands for most of the game, and Beal has the goods to follow suit.

12) Devin Booker - I mean, he was the guy who did it. Who says he can’t do it again?

Look, 70 points in one game is damn near impossible, improbable at the highest of degrees at best. It was a damn-near miracle Booker even got there when he did it. I’m not saying it's going to happen again, or happen anytime soon for that matter, but if it does, I’m putting my money on these guys to do it. If I had to rank them, I’d say the 3 most likely to pull this off would be, in this order, Klay Thompson, James Harden and Steph Curry. Either way, this was a historic achievement and should be treated as such. Shouts to Devin Booker, and hopefully this is just a sign of things to come from the young Sun prodigy.

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justinhaywardthismorning · 7 years ago

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flauntpage · 7 years ago

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The Outlet Pass: Superstar Kemba, God Mode Horford, and the New Look Knicks

The first couple weeks of the 2017-18 NBA season have been more fun, unpredictable, and mind-boggling than anyone could've guessed. After Gordon Hayward's injury, the Boston Celtics look like they'll never lose again, Aaron Gordon appears to be a budding All-Star, and Cleveland Cavaliers general manager Koby Altman should probably consider blowing everything up and starting all over (kidding!).

Seriously, though, the season is quickly shaping into an entertaining adventure nobody saw coming: an ongoing drama between belief and skepticism. Between the Little Engine That Could and Small Sample Size Mountain. Let's take a closer look.

1. Chandler Parsons Looks (Relatively) Phenomenal

Heading into this season, expectations surrounding Chandler Parsons—at 29, post-several significant knee surgeries, after a year in which no player in the entire league (except, um, his own teammate Andrew Harrison) shot the ball worse—were lower than they will be for Netflix's inevitable rollout of Stranger Things 7. But instead of hobbling around as a $23 million ball mover, Parsons is one of the most efficient players in the entire league—last night's 0-for-4 outing against the Orlando Magic notwithstanding—and possesses its lowest defensive rating.

(When he's on the court, Memphis performs like a 79-win team! When he's off, only 29.)

Parsons isn't blowing by defenders (unless they're named "Frank Kaminsky"), but has finally rediscovered some confidence in his shot after starting the season with a petrified look on his face every time someone passed him the ball. He's averaging more points per 36 minutes than ever, and has spent nearly all his time at the four (a smart, new development that's partly due to JaMychal Green's ankle injury).

Parsons recorded two dunks in his first 100 minutes after a grand total of three in 674 minutes last season. On one play against the Charlotte Hornets, he grabbed a defensive rebound, leisurely dribbled to the top of the arc, and launched an open three. It clanged off the front iron, but that's still an encouraging level of comfort to see from a guy who was booed by his own fanbase a couple weeks ago.

What does all this mean for the Memphis Grizzlies? Parsons has only logged 19 minutes beside Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, and in that time they were outscored by 14.2 points per 100 possessions. But if they can gel some on an upcoming five-game road trip, and Parsons is able to sustain some of his efficiency in a larger role without suffering any health-related setbacks, there's a very good chance this team can not only qualify for the playoffs, but make some genuine noise once they're there.

2. Big Men and Closeouts

This might seem obvious, but with even more traditional centers stepping behind the three-point line this year, the guys asked to stop them are also drifting towards the perimeter more than they used to. The following qualifies as anecdotal evidence within a small sample size, but according to NBA.com Dwight Howard is contesting 2.7 threes per game this season, up from 1.5 last year. Marc Gasol is at 3.7 three-point contests, and last year he averaged 1.8. Steven Adams contested 2.7 threes last year and now he's at 3.6.

Again, these numbers are circumstantial—reliant on minutes, opponents, and scheme in a tiny sample size—and should be read with a grain of salt. Some centers (like Rudy Gobert and DeMarcus Cousins) haven't seen any uptick at all. But what matters here is the reminder that as NBA offenses continue to evolve, individual defenders are being forced to need to sharpen tools they barely used to need.

Centers who bite at Joel Embiid's pump fake, or wildly race out at Brook Lopez with no plan other than to run him off the line, put pressure on help defenders who're forced to either foul, take a very painful charge, or desert their own assignment and surrender an open look elsewhere.

Sprinting to a dead stop and then trying to laterally stick with a ball-handler is incredibly difficult, but in today's NBA this is what once-plodding seven-footers have to do if they want to stay on the floor.

3. Apologies to Jakob Poeltl

I don't think my opinion on a prospect has ever shifted faster than it has with Jakob Poeltl. It was unclear watching him last year how a seven-footer who can't shoot and doesn't possess leap-off-the-screen athleticism could carve out a meaningful role on a winning team.

This opinion was bad. Poeltl is awesome. Not only is he a putback monster who can control the offensive glass against the right matchup (Toronto's offensive rebound rate is 9.3 percent higher with him in the game), but the 22-year-old has also proven to be an agile pick-and-roll finisher, with touch and strength around the rim. His defense is phenomenal, too, particularly when switching out on the perimeter. Poeltl keeps one hand high to bother the shooter's vision, swivels his hips, and slides step for step.

This is valuable, but thanks to Jonas Valanciunas and Bebe Nogueira, Poeltl's playing time isn't as high as his skills suggest it should be.

4. Philly's Expanding Playbook

It's oh so very early, but according to Synergy Sports, the Philadelphia 76ers boast the NBA's most efficient offense after a timeout. This is a massive leap from last year, when, well, they came in dead last, averaging a measly 0.819 points per possession. Some of this is thanks to Brett Brown's willingness to experiment with the most talented and complementary roster he's ever had, and some is just because said talent is able to savage defenses that aren't as focused as they should be.

Ben Simmons is as perceptive as he is physically imposing; the 21-year-old has already figured out how to make opponents pay when they don't execute as tightly as they should (or when they're simply unable to squeeze the ball out of his hands).

After an Iverson cut towards the left wing, Simmons attacks away from the screen once he notices that Dallas Mavericks big Dwight Powell is hugged up on Amir Johnson instead of in position to ice the pick-and-roll.

The next play starts the same, with Simmons once again opening things up by cutting across the elbow. But instead of Johnson setting a screen, Joel Embiid posts up on the left block while three other Sixers (who're all respectable outside threats) clear out to the weakside. Trevor Ariza isn't in position to force Simmons towards the sideline, so the phenom behaves like a phenom and instead plows into the middle towards an open lane.

These two positive results come off action that isn't especially creative. But Brown is smart enough to realize that sometimes all he has to do is get out of the way. Wind up your franchise player, point him towards a simple two-man action, then let him wreak some havoc. Simmons's ability to read and react at warp speed is one of the many unteachable gifts he already has, and the scheme that can slow him down might not currently exist.

5. Is Ricky Rubio Finally Evolving?

Watch what happens when a defense goes out of its way to prevent Rubio from shooting the ball.

As he spins middle off Gobert's screen, Brandon Ingram leaves Joe Ingles (you know, the guy who made 44.1 percent of his threes last season and is even more accurate this year) to stunt and force a pass. The ball is eventually swung to the opposite corner, where Rodney Hood drills an open look.

This is probably more due to an antsy 20-year-old trying to make a play than a tactical decision from Lakers head coach Luke Walton, but it hints at a reality many thought we'd never see. Rubio is making shots. What's even more impressive than him making 38 percent of his threes (and a completely unsustainable 54 percent of his long twos) is a newfound bravery attached to his shot selection.

Rubio's three-point rate is currently 16.7 percent higher than his career average. Above-the-break treys are still all over the place and he still can't finish at the rim, but a willingness to fire away could change how defenses treat him over the course of the season. Off reputation alone, Rubio's gravity won't ever sniff most of his contemporaries, but an ability to make defenders pay every now and again is significant.

(Also, he has the best hair in the league.)

On Wednesday, Rubio finished with 30 points (three short of his career high) on 17 shots. For just one moment, imagine an alternate reality where these developments are taking place on a Jazz roster that also has a healthy Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors nearly back to the borderline-All-Star plane where he ascended before injuries weakened his antithetical impact. Is that the second or third-best team in the Western Conference? Does a Rubio, Hood, Hayward, Favors, Gobert lineup make the Warriors sweat?

6. Reminder: Giannis is Huge!

The sight never gets old. In the opening few minutes of Milwaukee's blowout loss against Oklahoma City on Tuesday night, Giannis glided around the floor as a taller, stronger, longer, version of all the various wing defenders employed by the Thunder. It was funny, watching OKC's fundamental identity and nightly advantage look so delicate standing beside the NBA's very own Cloverfield. On the same court as Giannis, Paul George, Andre Roberson, and Jerami Grant looked like raptors flailing around in Jurassic Park's final scene.

7. Reminder: De'Aaron Fox is Fast!

Keep an eye on the shot clock.

8. Is 2017-18 Kemba Walker About to Become 2016-17 Isaiah Thomas?

Meaning, are we in store for a second unexpected leap from a spunky Eastern Conference point guard, one season after it felt like they already spilled out all they had to offer? Earlier this week, Walker ranked third in fourth-quarter scoring (he's now at 10th, with a number that would be top five last season), has never been more efficient from inside or outside the arc, and has damn near doubled his free-throw rate.

Walker has been fantastic inside the paint, and the Charlotte Hornets look deprived of all five senses when he's off the court. This is somewhat due to the fact that they don't currently have a backup point guard, but Charlotte is still an unbelievable 33.6 points per 100 possessions better when he's in there.

There's a jumpy, unpredictability to Walker's game right now. On one recent possession against the Memphis Grizzlies, Walker pushed the ball in transition and nearly penetrated beneath the basket before he decided to pump the brakes and dribble back out to set up the offense. But once he realized no Grizzlies were nearby to escort him to the perimeter, he curled baseline and knocked down a wide open jumper. Splash.

With more pressure to shoulder a heavier load after Nicolas Batum went down in the preseason, Walker is playing with an unseen self-belief that's steadily elevating his game even higher than last year's All-Star campaign showed it could go. Taming a tiger is less complicated than corralling him off a high screen right now. He's a virtual lock to make his second-straight All-Star team.

9. The New York Knicks are Rebounding the Shit out of the Ball

Photo by Wendell Cruz - USA TODAY Sports

Remember when the Knicks were mocked for constructing a roster that essentially barred Kristaps Porzingis from spending any time at center (only three percent of his minutes have been at that position this year, down from 21 percent last year)? Well, even after three-straight wins against the Brooklyn Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Denver Nuggets that took place before they were slapped back to Earth by the Houston Rockets, these personnel decisions probably still weren't the way to go.

But what those personnel choices have done is help New York formulate a fun, possibly sustainable (?) Porzingis + Putbacks identity. With Carmelo Anthony out of the picture, Porzingis has spent the opening chapter of his third season mushrooming into an unguardable beanstock. Only Giannis, Boogie, and Steph Curry are averaging more points than Porzingis. Zero players have a higher usage rate.

Instead of spacing issues caused by the likes of Enes Kanter and Kyle O'Quinn, those two have butchered teams on the glass. The Knicks rank second in offensive rebound rate and third in total rebound rate. While almost every other team around the league is downsizing, New York has firmly positioned their 7'3" franchise player at the four. And, relative to some depressing expectations, it's working!

10. I Can't Wait for the Atlanta Hawks to be Good

If you've happened to catch any recent Hawks game at Philips Arena, you might remember sideline reporter Andre Aldridge posted up at a brand new bar that just opened along the court's baseline. It looks like the most amazing place on Earth.

The team is horrible, but have openly cuddled up beside a full-on rebuild that should (if all goes according to plan) make Philips Arena one of the NBA's most lively atmospheres a few years down the road. Until then, Dominique Wilkins and Bob Rathbun need to broadcast every home game games directly from the bar.

11. Let's Trade Jamal Murray for Kyle Lowry

The likeliness of a trade involving these two players is microscopic—the idea disintegrates if the Toronto Raptors and Denver Nuggets both look like solid playoff teams in late January (Lowry can't be dealt until that month)—so I won't spend too much time rationalizing why I think it should happen.

But it sorta makes sense! Big picture, Toronto has a rapidly progressing core simmering beneath its veteran, All-Star-caliber contributors. The aforementioned Poeltl, rookie OG Anunoby, recently signed Norm Powell, and intriguing rotation players like Delon Wright and Pascal Siakam have the future looking solid.

They're successfully rebuilding on the fly while Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and Serge Ibaka begin to decline on big-money contracts. Trading (at least) one of those three for valuable assets would punt meaningful playoff contention from 2018-2020, but allow continuity to accelerate within a new, modernized offensive system.

If they can somehow land someone with Murray's upside and turn him into their new franchise player, the Raptors would seamlessly glide from a stagnant also-ran to a promising up-and-comer. Dwane Casey has already relented a bit, playing lineups that feature four or five young pups at the same time.

The main holdup here, besides contractual issues that make matching money a little difficult with these two teams, is Denver's cooperation. Why the hell would they give up on a 20-year-old who defends his position and may own the most invaluable offensive trait in basketball: an ability to knock down pull-up threes at a reliable rate?

Denver is almost an inverse of the Raptors. Both teams are operating on two timelines, but the Nuggets are more clearly loaded to do damage five years from now. Nikola Jokic is 22, Gary Harris just turned 23, and Emmanuel Mudiay (who's made 45.5 percent of his threes this year!) is 21. Common sense says "wait." But Paul Millsap's decision to climb aboard turns maximizing the present into a conversation.

Lowry has been pretty bad this year, but he's still one of the five or six most effective all-around players at his position. Imagine how he'd look next to Jokic and Millsap. How much better would Denver be if he's there this season and next?

Again, a trade like this is extremely complicated and would dramatically shift the direction of two franchises that seem to be content with where they are. But the word impossible doesn't exist in today's NBA.

12. Can Rashad Vaughn Maybe Become a Thing?

Vaughn (who recently said "that's what we lived for" in reference to the McGriddle sandwich) entered his third season with one foot in the league and the other on a banana peel. He logged a grand total of four and a half minutes in Milwaukee's first four games (during which he was trade bait) before draining four threes in an 11-point win against the Hawks.

On Halloween, the team decided not to pick up his fourth-year option, making Vaughn an unrestricted free agent this summer. For a team that has little financial flexibility going forward, completely whiffing on a first-round pick can have painful consequences. Giannis is clearly ready to win now, and the Eastern Conference is begging someone to usurp the Cavaliers.

As Malcolm Brogdon, Jabari Parker, and Khris Middleton each become eligible for a significant pay raise in the next couple summers, the pressure will be on Milwaukee's front office to complement their franchise megastar with a championship-caliber supporting cast before he can flee as a free agent.

On paper, Vaughn is an ideal puzzle piece: a 6'6" three-point threat who may one day be able to reliably knock down threes, make plays when the ball is swung his way, and threaten defenses by pulling up off a dribble hand-off or initiating his own pick-and-roll. Maybe the Bucks believe waiting to see if Vaughn pans out is a waste of everybody's time, especially now that Tony Snell already fills the role he was meant for.

But money issues constrict ways in which Milwaukee can improve from the outside. Internal improvement is key. Vaughn's team option feels negligible now, but giving up on him so soon may come back to haunt this team in one way or another.

13. The Spurs are Perfect Even When They're Not

Even though Patty Mills' game-tying three didn't fall, San Antonio's execution of this elevators action at the end of a recent loss against the Indiana Pacers exemplified why they're the coolest cucumbers around.

Everything about this is ideal...until the ball leaves his fingertips.

14. Jordan Clarkson's Usage Rate is Higher than Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, and Just About Everybody Else

To suggest Clarkson has made the most of his reduced playing time is to suggest that Kendrick Lamar sometimes steals the spotlight when he's on other people's songs. In ten fewer minutes than he averaged last year, Clarkson is averaging the same amount of points, knocking down threes at a more accurate clip, posting the highest assist rate of his career, and, generally standing out as a quality contributor off Los Angeles' bench. (He launched six threes in 14 freaking minutes against the Toronto Raptors!)

He's efficient for the very first time despite his usage percentage soaring into the rarified air normally reserved for All-Stars. Some of this is because he's the only shot creator on the floor, often paired with the likes of Corey Brewer, Kyle Kuzma, and Josh Hart. And some of it's because he's been instructed to attack. It's too early to speculate whether this is a breakout campaign or just an early-season surge, but Clarkson's production is flying under the radar in a city that thinks Lonzo Ball is the only player who ever lived.

15. Al Horford is Playing Better Defense Than Everybody Else

The Boston Celtics have the best defense in the NBA because Al Horford is playing like its best defender. When he's off the floor they guard like a bottom-10 unit, but when he's out there, nailed down as a human lighthouse guiding Boston's young pack of swarming athletes everywhere they should go, the Celtics are well-choreographed misery.

Individually, the overwhelming talent Horford has had to corral is beyond impressive: Giannis (twice), Ben Simmons, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kristaps Porzingis, and Kevin Love. All opponents are shooting just 56.2 percent at the rim when Horford is on the floor. When he rests, that number spikes all the way up to 74.6 percent. The difference ranks in the 98th percentile among players at his position, according to Cleaning the Glass).

For the fleeting minority that still scoffs at Horford's occasional humdrum box score, and are fed up with the Ambien-akin side-effects commonly linked to what happens after repeated exposure to negated entry passes, crisp high screens, and perfect execution of myriad pick-and-roll coverages, Horford remains an overpaid waste. Nearly a dozen years of evidence proves they're wrong, and this year he's definitively worth every penny.

Using priceless instincts, flawless habits, and a wingspan that allows him to cover more ground than anyone his size should (only seven players contest more shots every game, per NBA.com), Horford has glued himself inside the all-too-early Defensive Player of the Year (pseudo-MVP?) conversation. He shouldn't leave it anytime soon.

16. Tristan Thompson is a Black Eye on Cleveland's Bloody Face

The Cavaliers have dropped five of their last six games, with all five losses coming up against teams few, if anybody, projected to make the playoffs. Life is rough. But on a team with defensive woes that are as much due to mental indifference as they are physical fragility, Thompson's struggles across the board are particularly worrisome.

Two years ago, the Cavaliers allowed 101.7 points per 100 possessions with Thompson on the floor. This season, his defensive rating is 111.2. His minutes are down, his confidence is low, and his offensive role is non-existent. It's obviously possible for the Cavaliers to bounce back after Isaiah Thomas returns and LeBron James starts to feel like a superhero.

But up until he suffered a calf injury against the Indiana Pacers that will sideline him about a month, Thompson was a non-threat off the ball who launched more long twos than he ever should. If James leaves in free agency this summer, the $36 million Thompson is owed over the next two years turn that contract into one of the league's roughest (from Cleveland's perspective!) agreements.

To be fair, once he's healthy, Thompson's numbers should stabilize once Cleveland works an actual point guard into their rotation. Teams were able to switch James-Thompson pick-and-rolls, and the sliver of opportunity born from that action mainly arrived after a mistake. Here's an example, as miscommunication between Jrue Holiday and Dante Cunningham leads to an easy dunk.

17. Dillon Brooks is Found Money

I wonder how a lucky a front office feels whenever they draft someone 45th overall and then immediately watch him flourish in consequential ways. Is this like finding a $20 bill in your back pocket or hearing your train approach the second you descend onto a subway platform?

The Memphis Grizzlies have had their fair share of first-round blunders, but scoring with guys like Brooks has helped keep this organization afloat, stiff-arming a rebuild further out than it probably should be.

I don't have much to say about Brooks. He seems to be a cagey one-on-one defender, someone who's relentless and difficult to screen. That's nice. He's also committed a bunch of rookie mistakes and isn't really making his threes. But the fact that he's averaging 30 minutes per game on one of the league's most pleasant surprises is telling.

The value of a second-round pick is never more clear than in transcendent figures like Manu Ginobili or Draymond Green, but they still feel like an undervalued commodity. Think about how different the Los Angeles Clippers might look today if they drafted someone like Brooks a few years ago?

Plucking a helpful contributor in the second round takes quite a bit of luck, but some teams have an ability to carve their own more often than others.

18. Your Weekly Reminder that the Golden State Warriors are Unfair

Kevin Durant is shooting 49 percent from behind the three-point line, and his three-point rate has never been higher.

The Outlet Pass: Superstar Kemba, God Mode Horford, and the New Look Knicks published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

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amtushinfosolutionspage · 7 years ago

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The Outlet Pass: Superstar Kemba, God Mode Horford, and the New Look Knicks

The first couple weeks of the 2017-18 NBA season have been more fun, unpredictable, and mind-boggling than anyone could’ve guessed. After Gordon Hayward’s injury, the Boston Celtics look like they’ll never lose again, Aaron Gordon appears to be a budding All-Star, and Cleveland Cavaliers general manager Koby Altman should probably consider blowing everything up and starting all over (kidding!).

1. Chandler Parsons Looks (Relatively) Phenomenal

Heading into this season, expectations surrounding Chandler Parsons—at 29, post-several significant knee surgeries, after a year in which no player in the entire league (except, um, his own teammate Andrew Harrison) shot the ball worse—were lower than they will be for Netflix’s inevitable rollout of Stranger Things 7. But instead of hobbling around as a $23 million ball mover, Parsons is one of the most efficient players in the entire league—last night’s 0-for-4 outing against the Orlando Magic notwithstanding—and possesses its lowest defensive rating.

(When he’s on the court, Memphis performs like a 79-win team! When he’s off, only 29.)

Parsons isn’t blowing by defenders (unless they’re named “Frank Kaminsky”), but has finally rediscovered some confidence in his shot after starting the season with a petrified look on his face every time someone passed him the ball. He’s averaging more points per 36 minutes than ever, and has spent nearly all his time at the four (a smart, new development that’s partly due to JaMychal Green’s ankle injury).

Parsons recorded two dunks in his first 100 minutes after a grand total of three in 674 minutes last season. On one play against the Charlotte Hornets, he grabbed a defensive rebound, leisurely dribbled to the top of the arc, and launched an open three. It clanged off the front iron, but that’s still an encouraging level of comfort to see from a guy who was booed by his own fanbase a couple weeks ago.

What does all this mean for the Memphis Grizzlies? Parsons has only logged 19 minutes beside Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, and in that time they were outscored by 14.2 points per 100 possessions. But if they can gel some on an upcoming five-game road trip, and Parsons is able to sustain some of his efficiency in a larger role without suffering any health-related setbacks, there’s a very good chance this team can not only qualify for the playoffs, but make some genuine noise once they’re there.

2. Big Men and Closeouts

Again, these numbers are circumstantial—reliant on minutes, opponents, and scheme in a tiny sample size—and should be read with a grain of salt. Some centers (like Rudy Gobert and DeMarcus Cousins) haven’t seen any uptick at all. But what matters here is the reminder that as NBA offenses continue to evolve, individual defenders are being forced to need to sharpen tools they barely used to need.

Centers who bite at Joel Embiid’s pump fake, or wildly race out at Brook Lopez with no plan other than to run him off the line, put pressure on help defenders who’re forced to either foul, take a very painful charge, or desert their own assignment and surrender an open look elsewhere.

Sprinting to a dead stop and then trying to laterally stick with a ball-handler is incredibly difficult, but in today’s NBA this is what once-plodding seven-footers have to do if they want to stay on the floor.

3. Apologies to Jakob Poeltl

I don’t think my opinion on a prospect has ever shifted faster than it has with Jakob Poeltl. It was unclear watching him last year how a seven-footer who can’t shoot and doesn’t possess leap-off-the-screen athleticism could carve out a meaningful role on a winning team.

This opinion was bad. Poeltl is awesome. Not only is he a putback monster who can control the offensive glass against the right matchup (Toronto’s offensive rebound rate is 9.3 percent higher with him in the game), but the 22-year-old has also proven to be an agile pick-and-roll finisher, with touch and strength around the rim. His defense is phenomenal, too, particularly when switching out on the perimeter. Poeltl keeps one hand high to bother the shooter’s vision, swivels his hips, and slides step for step.

This is valuable, but thanks to Jonas Valanciunas and Bebe Nogueira, Poeltl’s playing time isn’t as high as his skills suggest it should be.

4. Philly’s Expanding Playbook

It’s oh so very early, but according to Synergy Sports, the Philadelphia 76ers boast the NBA’s most efficient offense after a timeout. This is a massive leap from last year, when, well, they came in dead last, averaging a measly 0.819 points per possession. Some of this is thanks to Brett Brown’s willingness to experiment with the most talented and complementary roster he’s ever had, and some is just because said talent is able to savage defenses that aren’t as focused as they should be.

Ben Simmons is as perceptive as he is physically imposing; the 21-year-old has already figured out how to make opponents pay when they don’t execute as tightly as they should (or when they’re simply unable to squeeze the ball out of his hands).

The next play starts the same, with Simmons once again opening things up by cutting across the elbow. But instead of Johnson setting a screen, Joel Embiid posts up on the left block while three other Sixers (who’re all respectable outside threats) clear out to the weakside. Trevor Ariza isn’t in position to force Simmons towards the sideline, so the phenom behaves like a phenom and instead plows into the middle towards an open lane.

These two positive results come off action that isn’t especially creative. But Brown is smart enough to realize that sometimes all he has to do is get out of the way. Wind up your franchise player, point him towards a simple two-man action, then let him wreak some havoc. Simmons’s ability to read and react at warp speed is one of the many unteachable gifts he already has, and the scheme that can slow him down might not currently exist.

5. Is Ricky Rubio Finally Evolving?

Watch what happens when a defense goes out of its way to prevent Rubio from shooting the ball.

As he spins middle off Gobert’s screen, Brandon Ingram leaves Joe Ingles (you know, the guy who made 44.1 percent of his threes last season and is even more accurate this year) to stunt and force a pass. The ball is eventually swung to the opposite corner, where Rodney Hood drills an open look.

This is probably more due to an antsy 20-year-old trying to make a play than a tactical decision from Lakers head coach Luke Walton, but it hints at a reality many thought we’d never see. Rubio is making shots. What’s even more impressive than him making 38 percent of his threes (and a completely unsustainable 54 percent of his long twos) is a newfound bravery attached to his shot selection.

Rubio’s three-point rate is currently 16.7 percent higher than his career average. Above-the-break treys are still all over the place and he still can’t finish at the rim, but a willingness to fire away could change how defenses treat him over the course of the season. Off reputation alone, Rubio’s gravity won’t ever sniff most of his contemporaries, but an ability to make defenders pay every now and again is significant.

(Also, he has the best hair in the league.)

6. Reminder: Giannis is Huge!

The sight never gets old. In the opening few minutes of Milwaukee’s blowout loss against Oklahoma City on Tuesday night, Giannis glided around the floor as a taller, stronger, longer, version of all the various wing defenders employed by the Thunder. It was funny, watching OKC’s fundamental identity and nightly advantage look so delicate standing beside the NBA’s very own Cloverfield. On the same court as Giannis, Paul George, Andre Roberson, and Jerami Grant looked like raptors flailing around in Jurassic Park‘s final scene.

7. Reminder: De’Aaron Fox is Fast!

Keep an eye on the shot clock.

8. Is 2017-18 Kemba Walker About to Become 2016-17 Isaiah Thomas?

Meaning, are we in store for a second unexpected leap from a spunky Eastern Conference point guard, one season after it felt like they already spilled out all they had to offer? Earlier this week, Walker ranked third in fourth-quarter scoring (he’s now at 10th, with a number that would be top five last season), has never been more efficient from inside or outside the arc, and has damn near doubled his free-throw rate.

Walker has been fantastic inside the paint, and the Charlotte Hornets look deprived of all five senses when he’s off the court. This is somewhat due to the fact that they don’t currently have a backup point guard, but Charlotte is still an unbelievable 33.6 points per 100 possessions better when he’s in there.

There’s a jumpy, unpredictability to Walker’s game right now. On one recent possession against the Memphis Grizzlies, Walker pushed the ball in transition and nearly penetrated beneath the basket before he decided to pump the brakes and dribble back out to set up the offense. But once he realized no Grizzlies were nearby to escort him to the perimeter, he curled baseline and knocked down a wide open jumper. Splash.

With more pressure to shoulder a heavier load after Nicolas Batum went down in the preseason, Walker is playing with an unseen self-belief that’s steadily elevating his game even higher than last year’s All-Star campaign showed it could go. Taming a tiger is less complicated than corralling him off a high screen right now. He’s a virtual lock to make his second-straight All-Star team.

9. The New York Knicks are Rebounding the Shit out of the Ball

Photo by Wendell Cruz – USA TODAY Sports

Instead of spacing issues caused by the likes of Enes Kanter and Kyle O’Quinn, those two have butchered teams on the glass. The Knicks rank second in offensive rebound rate and third in total rebound rate. While almost every other team around the league is downsizing, New York has firmly positioned their 7’3″ franchise player at the four. And, relative to some depressing expectations, it’s working!

10. I Can’t Wait for the Atlanta Hawks to be Good

If you’ve happened to catch any recent Hawks game at Philips Arena, you might remember sideline reporter Andre Aldridge posted up at a brand new bar that just opened along the court’s baseline. It looks like the most amazing place on Earth.

The team is horrible, but have openly cuddled up beside a full-on rebuild that should (if all goes according to plan) make Philips Arena one of the NBA’s most lively atmospheres a few years down the road. Until then, Dominique Wilkins and Bob Rathbun need to broadcast every home game games directly from the bar.

11. Let’s Trade Jamal Murray for Kyle Lowry

The likeliness of a trade involving these two players is microscopic—the idea disintegrates if the Toronto Raptors and Denver Nuggets both look like solid playoff teams in late January (Lowry can’t be dealt until that month)—so I won’t spend too much time rationalizing why I think it should happen.

They’re successfully rebuilding on the fly while Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and Serge Ibaka begin to decline on big-money contracts. Trading (at least) one of those three for valuable assets would punt meaningful playoff contention from 2018-2020, but allow continuity to accelerate within a new, modernized offensive system.

If they can somehow land someone with Murray’s upside and turn him into their new franchise player, the Raptors would seamlessly glide from a stagnant also-ran to a promising up-and-comer. Dwane Casey has already relented a bit, playing lineups that feature four or five young pups at the same time.

The main holdup here, besides contractual issues that make matching money a little difficult with these two teams, is Denver’s cooperation. Why the hell would they give up on a 20-year-old who defends his position and may own the most invaluable offensive trait in basketball: an ability to knock down pull-up threes at a reliable rate?

Denver is almost an inverse of the Raptors. Both teams are operating on two timelines, but the Nuggets are more clearly loaded to do damage five years from now. Nikola Jokic is 22, Gary Harris just turned 23, and Emmanuel Mudiay (who’s made 45.5 percent of his threes this year!) is 21. Common sense says “wait.” But Paul Millsap’s decision to climb aboard turns maximizing the present into a conversation.

Lowry has been pretty bad this year, but he’s still one of the five or six most effective all-around players at his position. Imagine how he’d look next to Jokic and Millsap. How much better would Denver be if he’s there this season and next?

12. Can Rashad Vaughn Maybe Become a Thing?

Vaughn (who recently said “that’s what we lived for” in reference to the McGriddle sandwich) entered his third season with one foot in the league and the other on a banana peel. He logged a grand total of four and a half minutes in Milwaukee’s first four games (during which he was trade bait) before draining four threes in an 11-point win against the Hawks.

As Malcolm Brogdon, Jabari Parker, and Khris Middleton each become eligible for a significant pay raise in the next couple summers, the pressure will be on Milwaukee’s front office to complement their franchise megastar with a championship-caliber supporting cast before he can flee as a free agent.

On paper, Vaughn is an ideal puzzle piece: a 6’6″ three-point threat who may one day be able to reliably knock down threes, make plays when the ball is swung his way, and threaten defenses by pulling up off a dribble hand-off or initiating his own pick-and-roll. Maybe the Bucks believe waiting to see if Vaughn pans out is a waste of everybody’s time, especially now that Tony Snell already fills the role he was meant for.

But money issues constrict ways in which Milwaukee can improve from the outside. Internal improvement is key. Vaughn’s team option feels negligible now, but giving up on him so soon may come back to haunt this team in one way or another.

13. The Spurs are Perfect Even When They’re Not

Even though Patty Mills’ game-tying three didn’t fall, San Antonio’s execution of this elevators action at the end of a recent loss against the Indiana Pacers exemplified why they’re the coolest cucumbers around.

Everything about this is ideal…until the ball leaves his fingertips.

14. Jordan Clarkson’s Usage Rate is Higher than Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, and Just About Everybody Else

To suggest Clarkson has made the most of his reduced playing time is to suggest that Kendrick Lamar sometimes steals the spotlight when he’s on other people’s songs. In ten fewer minutes than he averaged last year, Clarkson is averaging the same amount of points, knocking down threes at a more accurate clip, posting the highest assist rate of his career, and, generally standing out as a quality contributor off Los Angeles’ bench. (He launched six threes in 14 freaking minutes against the Toronto Raptors!)

He’s efficient for the very first time despite his usage percentage soaring into the rarified air normally reserved for All-Stars. Some of this is because he’s the only shot creator on the floor, often paired with the likes of Corey Brewer, Kyle Kuzma, and Josh Hart. And some of it’s because he’s been instructed to attack. It’s too early to speculate whether this is a breakout campaign or just an early-season surge, but Clarkson’s production is flying under the radar in a city that thinks Lonzo Ball is the only player who ever lived.

15. Al Horford is Playing Better Defense Than Everybody Else

The Boston Celtics have the best defense in the NBA because Al Horford is playing like its best defender. When he’s off the floor they guard like a bottom-10 unit, but when he’s out there, nailed down as a human lighthouse guiding Boston’s young pack of swarming athletes everywhere they should go, the Celtics are well-choreographed misery.

For the fleeting minority that still scoffs at Horford’s occasional humdrum box score, and are fed up with the Ambien-akin side-effects commonly linked to what happens after repeated exposure to negated entry passes, crisp high screens, and perfect execution of more pick-and-roll coverages, Horford remains an overpaid waste. Nearly a dozen years of evidence proves they’re wrong, and this year he’s definitively worth every penny.

16. Tristan Thompson is a Black Eye on Cleveland’s Bloody Face

The Cavaliers have dropped five of their last six games, with all five losses coming up against teams few, if anybody, projected to make the playoffs. Life is rough. But on a team with defensive woes that are as much due to mental indifference as they are physical fragility, Thompson’s struggles across the board are particularly worrisome.

Two years ago, the Cavaliers allowed 101.7 points per 100 possessions with Thompson on the floor. This season, his defensive rating is 111.2. His minutes are down, his confidence is low, and his offensive role is non-existent. It’s obviously possible for the Cavaliers to bounce back after Isaiah Thomas returns and LeBron James starts to feel like a superhero.

But up until he suffered a calf injury against the Indiana Pacers that will sideline him about a month, Thompson was a non-threat off the ball who launched more long twos than he ever should. If James leaves in free agency this summer, the $36 million Thompson is owed over the next two years turn that contract into one of the league’s roughest (from Cleveland’s perspective!) agreements.

To be fair, once he’s healthy, Thompson’s numbers should stabilize once Cleveland works an actual point guard into their rotation. Teams were able to switch James-Thompson pick-and-rolls, and the sliver of opportunity born from that action mainly arrived after a mistake. Here’s an example, as miscommunication between Jrue Holiday and Dante Cunningham leads to an easy dunk.

17. Dillon Brooks is Found Money

I don’t have much to say about Brooks. He seems to be a cagey one-on-one defender, someone who’s relentless and difficult to screen. That’s nice. He’s also committed a bunch of rookie mistakes and isn’t really making his threes. But the fact that he’s averaging 30 minutes per game on one of the league’s most pleasant surprises is telling.

Plucking a helpful contributor in the second round takes quite a bit of luck, but some teams have an ability to carve their own more often than others.

18. Your Weekly Reminder that the Golden State Warriors are Unfair

Kevin Durant is shooting 49 percent from behind the three-point line, and his three-point rate has never been higher.

The Outlet Pass: Superstar Kemba, God Mode Horford, and the New Look Knicks syndicated from http://ift.tt/2ug2Ns6

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yahoo-roto-arcade-blog · 7 years ago

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Week 7 Fantasy Sleepers: Darkwa a bright light in Giants backfield

Sorry Wayne Gallman, but Orleans Darkwa may have kicked you to the curb. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Week 7 Fantasy Flames: Hundley to cash for sleeper seekers

Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 18 fpts, RB: 12 fpts, WR: 11 fpts: TE: 10 fpts; .5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 7 Flames in the comments section below.

Brett Hundley, GB, QB (5 percent started, $20 in Yahoo DFS) Matchup: vs. NO (Game over/under: 47)

Any aspiring NFL quarterback who happened to splash a quarter in a wishing well would ask to be jettisoned to a handful of ripe locales – New England, New Orleans, Green Bay … With Aaron Rodgers likely sidelined for the remainder of the season due to a broken collarbone, Hundley parachutes into an ideal scenario. When he came out of UCLA in 2015, scouts questioned his ability to process and properly assess progressions. He was tabbed “inaccurate” and “ineffective,” a short field focused passer who, despite his plus athleticism (4.63 40-yard) and size (6-foot-3, 226 pounds), would only develop into an average backup. It’s those knocks that explain why he plummeted to Round 5 of the NFL Draft. However, he made noticeable strides in Year 3, evidenced by his excellent Preseason play. Yes, it was practice football against fellow second-stringers, but his observational learning behind a generational quarterback clearly paid dividends. He completed a respectable 63.2 percent of his attempts, was an advantageous runner and took more shots downfield. Now thrust into a favorable fantasy situation, Hundley has a chance to silence his harshest critics. He didn’t electrify at Minnesota in Rodgers’ absence, but the unexpected expanded role, scaled down playbook and uninviting environment were definitely influential. With a week to prepare and a bevy of terrific weapons around him, he could surprise. The matchup also isn’t too shabby. The Saints D, though on an upward track thanks to Marshon Lattimore and its aggressive pass rush, has given up 7.9 yards per attempt, 290.6 yards per game, nine touchdowns and the seventh-most fantasy points to QBs. In a game with shootout written all over it, the dual threat comes up green.

Fearless Forecast: 230 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 2 turnovers, 31 rushing yards, 18.1 fantasy points

Marlon Mack, Ind, RB (13 percent started, $15 in Yahoo DFS) Matchup: vs. Jax (Over/Under: 44)

Father Time is and forever will be undefeated. All of the fantasy generation’s great ones – Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson – eventually wear down and are rendered statistically useless. Sadly, Frank Gore is slowly trending in that direction. Though he remains upright and continues to contribute substantive snaps, the eleventh hour has nearly arrived for the Colts’ elder statesman. Mack, ascending rapidly, is the only Indy rusher to roster henceforth. That is, if Chuck Pagano will remove head from keyster. The indecisive head coach said late last week Mack wasn’t ready for an expanded role, but quickly changed his mind leading up to Monday’s game in Tennessee hinting he would increase the rookie’s touches. The result: TWO carries. Of course, Mack ripped a 20-plus yard run, his fifth of the season and second only to Kareem Hunt, then effectively disappeared. Dumbfounding. On a team desperate for playmakers outside T.Y. Hilton, he should receive double-digit touches at a minimum. He’s tallied a sensational 3.7 YAC/att and forced eight missed tackles … on just 27 carries. But apparently Pagano is the “genius” with all the answers. What do we stat nerds really know? This week, maybe, just maybe, the light in the attic flips on for Chuck. Despite showcasing one of the finest secondaries in the land, the Jags remain vulnerable up front. On the season they’ve given up 5.36 yards per carry to RBs. Admittedly, it’s a risky recommendation, but Mack is someone I would roll the dice on in the FLEX.

Fearless Forecast: 10 carries, 55 rushing yards, 1 receptions, 7 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 12.7 fantasy points

Orleans Darkwa, NYG, RB (4 percent started, $16 in Yahoo DFS) Matchup: vs. Sea (Over/Under: 39)

Equipped with a name reminiscent of a Marvel Universe villain, Darkwa, and his Giants teammates, pulled off a stunner of unfathomable proportions. They marched into Denver with a Big Sky-level offense, mostly dominated and scored their first victory of the season. Ah, the NFL, where nuttiness is the norm. Thought to be merely a change-of-pace option after Wayne Gallman’s emergence, Darkwa now possesses the upper hand. Against the Broncos, he blasted and burrowed his way to 130 yards on 22 touches. His supportive 3.3 yards after contact per attempt was extraordinary, but what made the night particularly special; he achieved it against numerous overloaded boxes. According to NFL NextGenStats, he saw eight or men in the box a week-high 80.9 percent of the time. Credit to Darkwa. Credit to New York’s often lambasted offensive line. Gallman and Shane Vereen will remain involved, but, at this juncture, the backfield climber is starter-worthy in 12-team leagues. Seattle ranks No. 5 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs, but the standing is deceiving. Despite Bobby Wagner’s excellent gap coverage (No. 5 in runs-stop%), chunk plays by opposing rushers have been commonplace. On the year, the ‘Hawks have given up 4.84 yards per carry to RBs. Assuming the trench mound movers continue to create space, Darkwa has excellent odds of cracking the 80-yard mark with a possible score. Ride the hot hand.

Fearless Forecast: 15 carries, 72 rushing yards, 1 reception, 9 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.6 fantasy points

Nelson Agholor, Phi, WR (24 percent started, $15 in Yahoo DFS) Matchup: vs. Was (Over/Under: 48.5)

Not long ago fantasy breakout soothsayers always trumpeted the “third-year wide receiver.” Earlier this century, before spread formations and college concepts invaded NFL playbooks, the learning curve for even the most talented pass-catching prospects was rather steep. It’s why many took multiple seasons to reach their full potential. But due to explosive first-year performances by the likes of Odell Beckham, Mike Evans and Michael Thomas, to name a few, in recent campaigns, unfair and often unreachable expectations have been placed on rookie wideouts. Don’t pay an instant dividend and your image will be forever tarnished. Agholor exemplifies this mentality. Ballyhooed out of USC, he’s blossomed in his third season. The game is slower. Philly’s system is now a fluent language. Chemistry with his quarterback is established. For some guys, it simply takes time. Through six weeks, the overlooked target is quietly WR16 in fantasy. He’s lured just 13.2 percent of the targets share, but the premium looks he’s received have cashed. His 2.63 fantasy points per target and 11.6 yards per target rank top-10 at the position. Most impressively, connections from Carson Wentz to Agholor have resulted in a 147.9 passer rating. It might not be McNabb-to-Owens, but what they’ve achieved thus far is quite commendable. Matched this week against a rigid Washington secondary allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs, the Eagle is still a trustworthy WR3. Josh Norman may not return and his likely adversary, Bashaud Breeland (94.7 passer rating allowed), is also a possible no go. Fly, Eagle. Fly.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 13.9 fantasy points

Bennie Fowler, Den, WR (1 percent started, $10 in Yahoo DFS) Matchup: at LAC (Over/Under: 42)

The injury imp’s wickedness knows no bounds. From David Johnson to Beckham to Rodgers to Emmanuel Sanders, no position is ever safe from its wrath. When misfortune strikes, we’re all pressed into previously unthinkable situations. Starting a largely unwanted receiver tied to an average quarterback with red-zone issues in a conservative offense is certainly one of them. But with Sanders ruled out (ankle) and a pair of teams on bye (Detroit and Houston), Fowler possesses deep-league fantasy appeal. Yes, his 13.0 targets share and minimal contributions since Week 1 are difficult to ignore, but he’s the primary beneficiary of Sanders’ absence. He’s trusted inside the 20, undeterred in traffic and, right now, the best receiving option Trevor Siemian has outside a banged up Demaryius Thomas. C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker and Jamaal Charles will be leaned on, but Fowler is a suitable TD candidate against the Chargers. Recall he torched the division rival for a pair of scores Week 1. Throw in Casey Hayward (107.5 passer rating allowed) and Co.’s struggles defending the pass – they’ve surrendered nine touchdowns, a 64.3 catch percentage and the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year – and a WR3 return seems entirely possible. With 27.6 percent of the Sanders’ targets allotted elsewhere, Fowler could morph into a golden fantasy goose.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 50 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 13.0 fantasy points

WEEK 7 SHOCKER SPECIAL (Under 10-percent started)

Dion Lewis, NE, RB (6 percent started, $17 in Yahoo DFS) Matchup: vs. Atl (Over/Under: 55)

Chucky, Jason Voorhees, Bill Belichick. What do the all have in common? Every fall their evil hijacks television screens. When it comes to running backs, Beelzichick may be child’s play compared to former “Lucifer,” Mike Shanahan, but he’s certainly no saint. James White, Rex Burkhead, Mike Gillislee and Lewis have comprised a brain-racking backfield. Predicting who stands out from the crowd any given week is usually an exercise in futility. However, between the blurred lines lies clarity. Gillislee’s fumble lost last week in New York paved the way for the plucky Lewis to gain more opportunities, which he instantly took advantage of. On 11 carries he gained 52 yards, found the end zone, notched 3.7 yards after contact per attempt and posted a 135.5 elusive rating, the fourth-highest of the week per Pro Football Focus. Snake slithery, Lewis is one of the toughest RBs to corral. He sports impeccable vision, a sick jump cut and terrific burst. Pound for pound, he’s the best RB on New England’s roster. And he deserves more run. Due to Belichick’s rascally ways, the Pats will continue to employ a hard-to-read RBBC. Still, based on the recent uptick in snaps played (14-18-29 last three weeks), Lewis is a highly useful RB2 in 12-team and deeper leagues. New England’s Week 7 opponent, Atlanta, is one of the league’s most generous run defenses. On the year, the Falcons have allowed 4.32 yards per carry, 145.8 total yards per game, four total touchdowns and the eighth-most fantasy points to the position. In the Super Bowl rematch, look for Lewis to do his best White impersonation.

Fearless Forecast: 13 carries, 64 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 13 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.7 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 7 FLAMES

#TEAMHUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their “Flames” (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Goff, McFadden, D. Lewis, Doctson, Stills, O’Leary, Saints

— Quentin Babb (@quentin_babb) October 17, 2017

Fan Week 6 results: My Week 6 results: 1-11 (Season: 27-38; W: ASJ L: Donte Moncrief, Washington, Kevin Hogan, Alvin Kamara, Andre Ellington, Taylor Gabriel, Alex Smith, Ricardo Louis, Willie Snead, A.J. Derby)

Want to bull rush Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise. Also check out his TV show, “The Fantasy Football Hour,” now available in 75 million households on Fox Sports Regional Networks, and his new podcast, “The Fantasy Record.”

#_category:yct:001000854 #_uuid:158c7ae1-80dd-3484-be6d-0602439d0a5a #_lmsid:a077000000CFoGyAAL #_author:Brad Evans #_revsp:54edcaf7-cdbb-43d7-a41b-bffdcc37fb56

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footballleague0 · 7 years ago

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Preseason BPI reveal shows just how dominant the Golden State Warriors will be

The 29 NBA teams that are not the Warriors should brace themselves: Their odds of knocking off Golden State are even longer this season. The Warriors have a 57.9 percent chance to repeat as NBA champs, according to preseason numbers from ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI). That makes them even heavier favorites than they were this time last year, when they were still the likeliest team to win it all (52.4 percent) by an overwhelming margin.

BPI is a forward-looking model that predicts the strength of each team on offense, defense and altogether. In making its game predictions, the model takes into account factors such as the strength of the two teams, the game’s location and rest differential between the two squads. BPI simulates the season 10,000 times to create its projections for both the season and the playoffs.

During the season, the model will adjust daily to include information gathered from every game that is played. But in the preseason, with no games played so far, the model is based on past performance combined with Vegas win totals.

And right now, that tells us …

The Warriors are really, really good

Breaking news, right? But seriously, it is notable that they are even heavier favorites than they were a year ago. The reason for that is simple: The model, quite frankly, thinks the Warriors are better than it did this time last year. Not better than how they ended up — that’s a different question altogether — but how good they were expected to be.

BPI believes the Warriors, who are returning all the key players from last season’s championship run, are 9.4 points better than the average team. That breaks down to a +5.6 rating on offense and a +3.7 on defense (that adds up to 9.3, but as a result of rounding their total BPI rating is +9.4).

ESPN Analytics

We mentioned earlier that the season is simulated 10,000 times to create BPI’s projections. Guess how many times the Warriors made the playoffs in those simulations? Yep, all 10,000. In fact, they never finished worse than the 5-seed in any simulation.

Some other Warriors projections while we’re on the subject:

Expected regular-season win total: 63.1. Chance to be the No. 1 seed in the West: 91.3 percent. Chance to reach the Finals: 67.2 percent.

Yeah, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant are a tough out.

Their most challenging opponent will come from within the Western Conference: the Houston Rockets, at a total BPI rating of +5.1. That’s a pretty wide gap between BPI’s No. 1- and No. 2-ranked teams.

Though BPI doesn’t specifically make an adjustment for the addition of Chris Paul, Vegas certainly recognizes the impact the star point guard can bring to Houston and adjusts its win totals accordingly, which in turn is reflected in BPI.

But the Rockets are not the second-most likely team to win the title next season.

If not the Warriors or Rockets, then who?

The Boston Celtics, that’s who.

That means Kyrie Irving jumped from the reigning Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers to the team favored to hold that title next. The revamped Celtics — with Irving and Gordon Hayward now on their roster — have a 12.1 percent chance to win the whole thing, best in the East. When the Warriors are taking up such a high likelihood of winning it all, 12.1 percent isn’t that bad.

Boston’s BPI rating is +4.9, fourth-best in the NBA behind the Warriors, Rocket and Spurs. Despite that, the C’s are the second-most-likely to win the Finals because they are in the East.

The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are sixth in BPI (+3.8) and have the fifth-best chance to win it all, at 6.4 percent. The Celtics and Cavs have a 55.8 percent and 27.9 percent chance, respectively, to be the No. 1 seed in the East.

As for Cavs-Warriors IV in the NBA Finals? BPI believes there’s a 17.5 percent chance of it happening.

But back to the Irving-Isaiah Thomas deal. How valuable is the Nets’ 2018 first-round pick the Celtics gave up?

According to BPI, that pick has an 11 percent chance of being the No. 1 overall pick, a 33 percent chance of being in the top three and a 59 percent chance of being in the top five.

If those are lower than you were expecting, that’s because BPI actually doesn’t think Brooklyn is the worst team in the NBA. That honor belongs to the Chicago Bulls (-7.2), who dealt Jimmy Butler to the Minnesota Timberwolves this offseason. The Atlanta Hawks, who lost Paul Millsap and Tim Hardaway Jr. and traded Dwight Howard, are the second-worst team in the league at -5.8.

It’s no surprise, then, that the Bulls and Hawks also have the best shot at the No. 1 overall pick next summer, with a 20.9 percent and 14.8 percent chance, respectively.

While Boston might keep an eye on the pick it traded to Cleveland, much more important to the Celtics is the Lakers’ pick, which becomes theirs if it falls between 2-5 as a result of the trade the 76ers made with the Celtics for the first overall pick in the 2017 draft. That pick has an 18.3 percent chance of falling in the zone that would result in the Sixers shipping it to Boston. The Celtics will receive a different pick in 2019 if the Lakers’ pick falls outside that zone.

Who are the big movers?

We already discussed the Bulls and Hawks, the two teams expected to see the largest drop in wins this season. They are followed by the Jazz (expected to win 10.3 fewer games in 2017-18) and Pacers, who each lost a star — Hayward and Paul George, respectively — this offseason.

The Timberwolves, who were on the other end of that Butler trade, are projected to win 47.6 games, a 16.6-win increase from their total a season ago. The 76ers are behind them, projected to win 42 games after winning 28 a season ago.

Neil Johnson contributed to this story.

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.

The post Preseason BPI reveal shows just how dominant the Golden State Warriors will be appeared first on Daily Star Sports.

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giantsfootball0 · 7 years ago

Text

Preseason BPI reveal shows just how dominant the Golden State Warriors will be

And right now, that tells us …

The Warriors are really, really good

ESPN Analytics

Some other Warriors projections while we’re on the subject:

Expected regular-season win total: 63.1. Chance to be the No. 1 seed in the West: 91.3 percent. Chance to reach the Finals: 67.2 percent.

Yeah, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant are a tough out.

But the Rockets are not the second-most likely team to win the title next season.

If not the Warriors or Rockets, then who?

The Boston Celtics, that’s who.

Boston’s BPI rating is +4.9, fourth-best in the NBA behind the Warriors, Rocket and Spurs. Despite that, the C’s are the second-most-likely to win the Finals because they are in the East.

As for Cavs-Warriors IV in the NBA Finals? BPI believes there’s a 17.5 percent chance of it happening.

But back to the Irving-Isaiah Thomas deal. How valuable is the Nets’ 2018 first-round pick the Celtics gave up?

According to BPI, that pick has an 11 percent chance of being the No. 1 overall pick, a 33 percent chance of being in the top three and a 59 percent chance of being in the top five.

It’s no surprise, then, that the Bulls and Hawks also have the best shot at the No. 1 overall pick next summer, with a 20.9 percent and 14.8 percent chance, respectively.

Who are the big movers?

Neil Johnson contributed to this story.

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.

The post Preseason BPI reveal shows just how dominant the Golden State Warriors will be appeared first on Daily Star Sports.

from https://dailystarsports.com/2017/09/20/preseason-bpi-reveal-shows-just-how-dominant-the-golden-state-warriors-will-be/ from https://dailystarsports.tumblr.com/post/165560059946

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flauntpage · 7 years ago

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The Outlet Pass: Superstar Kemba, God Mode Horford, and the New Look Knicks

1. Chandler Parsons Looks (Relatively) Phenomenal

(When he's on the court, Memphis performs like a 79-win team! When he's off, only 29.)

2. Big Men and Closeouts

3. Apologies to Jakob Poeltl

This is valuable, but thanks to Jonas Valanciunas and Bebe Nogueira, Poeltl's playing time isn't as high as his skills suggest it should be.

4. Philly's Expanding Playbook

5. Is Ricky Rubio Finally Evolving?

Watch what happens when a defense goes out of its way to prevent Rubio from shooting the ball.

(Also, he has the best hair in the league.)

6. Reminder: Giannis is Huge!

7. Reminder: De'Aaron Fox is Fast!

Keep an eye on the shot clock.

8. Is 2017-18 Kemba Walker About to Become 2016-17 Isaiah Thomas?

9. The New York Knicks are Rebounding the Shit out of the Ball

Photo by Wendell Cruz - USA TODAY Sports

10. I Can't Wait for the Atlanta Hawks to be Good

11. Let's Trade Jamal Murray for Kyle Lowry

12. Can Rashad Vaughn Maybe Become a Thing?

13. The Spurs are Perfect Even When They're Not

Everything about this is ideal...until the ball leaves his fingertips.

14. Jordan Clarkson's Usage Rate is Higher than Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, and Just About Everybody Else

15. Al Horford is Playing Better Defense Than Everybody Else

16. Tristan Thompson is a Black Eye on Cleveland's Bloody Face

17. Dillon Brooks is Found Money

Plucking a helpful contributor in the second round takes quite a bit of luck, but some teams have an ability to carve their own more often than others.

18. Your Weekly Reminder that the Golden State Warriors are Unfair

Kevin Durant is shooting 49 percent from behind the three-point line, and his three-point rate has never been higher.

The Outlet Pass: Superstar Kemba, God Mode Horford, and the New Look Knicks published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

0 notes

flauntpage · 7 years ago

Text

The Outlet Pass: Superstar Kemba, God Mode Horford, and the New Look Knicks

1. Chandler Parsons Looks (Relatively) Phenomenal

(When he's on the court, Memphis performs like a 79-win team! When he's off, only 29.)

2. Big Men and Closeouts

3. Apologies to Jakob Poeltl

This is valuable, but thanks to Jonas Valanciunas and Bebe Nogueira, Poeltl's playing time isn't as high as his skills suggest it should be.

4. Philly's Expanding Playbook

5. Is Ricky Rubio Finally Evolving?

Watch what happens when a defense goes out of its way to prevent Rubio from shooting the ball.

(Also, he has the best hair in the league.)

6. Reminder: Giannis is Huge!

7. Reminder: De'Aaron Fox is Fast!

Keep an eye on the shot clock.

8. Is 2017-18 Kemba Walker About to Become 2016-17 Isaiah Thomas?

9. The New York Knicks are Rebounding the Shit out of the Ball

Photo by Wendell Cruz - USA TODAY Sports

10. I Can't Wait for the Atlanta Hawks to be Good

11. Let's Trade Jamal Murray for Kyle Lowry

12. Can Rashad Vaughn Maybe Become a Thing?

13. The Spurs are Perfect Even When They're Not

Everything about this is ideal...until the ball leaves his fingertips.

14. Jordan Clarkson's Usage Rate is Higher than Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, and Just About Everybody Else

15. Al Horford is Playing Better Defense Than Everybody Else

For the fleeting minority that still scoffs at Horford's occasional humdrum box score, and are fed up with the Ambien-akin side-effects commonly linked to what happens after repeated exposure to negated entry passes, crisp high screens, and perfect execution of more pick-and-roll coverages, Horford remains an overpaid waste. Nearly a dozen years of evidence proves they're wrong, and this year he's definitively worth every penny.

16. Tristan Thompson is a Black Eye on Cleveland's Bloody Face

17. Dillon Brooks is Found Money

Plucking a helpful contributor in the second round takes quite a bit of luck, but some teams have an ability to carve their own more often than others.

18. Your Weekly Reminder that the Golden State Warriors are Unfair

Kevin Durant is shooting 49 percent from behind the three-point line, and his three-point rate has never been higher.

The Outlet Pass: Superstar Kemba, God Mode Horford, and the New Look Knicks published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

0 notes