#A bunch of these are repeats from last year's poll

[hypersfixation]

It's 2024, time for a new blorbo poll

[hanzajesthanza]

explanation of milva's pregnancy and regis' "poll" (baptism of fire chapter 7)

for those that need it. i made a similar post a few years ago, but it was a little more meandering and "well, it could be this, it could be that." but after rereading this scene a bunch more times since then, i'm now more certain of what i have to say about it.

at the end of the novel, it's revealed that milva has been pregnant for the last two and a half months. since then, she has wanted to abort the pregnancy, but has hesitated.

“I spent too long dragging my feet, meditating, hesitating. Now it won’t be so easy…”

currently, she is in the first term, it’s the tenth week of her pregnancy, as regis… decuded, somehow, him being “something of an expert”. and she later tells geralt that the pregnancy was conceived in mid-to-late june, the sunday after the summer solstice. and it’s late august by the end of the novel, when this conversation takes place.

milva knew she was pregnant, as the dryads could tell, but her procrastination (partially) came from there not being a right time to involve herself with it, as she was busy running intelligence for geralt and leading scoia’tael commandos in july.

then, geralt set off from brokilon in early august (around the 5th/6th), and milva followed, feeling guilt out of wanting to abort her pregnancy. she wanted to save his child, ciri, in exchange for the abortion she was about to have performed.

‘(…) For I would like you to find your Ciri, Witcher. To find her and get her back, with my help.’ ‘So that’s why you rode after me,’ he said, wiping his forehead. ‘That’s why.’ She lowered her head. ‘That’s why you rode after me,’ he repeated. ‘You set off to help rescue someone else’s child. You wanted to pay; to pay off a debt, that you intended to incur even when you set off… Someone else’s child for your own. A life for a life.’

the abortion she was planning to have would have been her debt, and following geralt and saving ciri her “baptism of fire.” these are two of the largest themes of the novel (see eithne speaking of debt in ch. 1 and regis speaking of baptism of fire in ch. 5).

milva had a peasant upbringing, in a village in upper sodden. she was taught the very strict functions and definitions of a woman (why she is so enraged about the peasant clogs insulting her in chapter 4 by insinuating that she's not a virgin, and therefore no use to them to hunt a vampire).

she defines womanhood as this traditional homemaker with children running around the feet. and, not wanting to come into this “mother hen with an egg” womanhood, fled home after she killed her stepfather.

(from chapter 2, after they witness the rape of the peasant girl:)

‘(…) I ran away from home. I didn’t want to sweep the cottage and scrub the floors. I wasn’t going to wait until they arrived and put the cottage to the torch, spread me out on the very same floor and…’

from there, she became a hunter, a killer—not maria, but milva—red kite. she killed men for brokilon, led false dryad scalping expeditions, leading them right into traps. this is “the blood that calls her” now.

‘What kind of Red Kite am I? A mother hen with an egg, not a Kite… Milva laughed with the dryads on the battleground, pulled arrows from bloodied corpses. Waste of a good arrow shaft or a good arrowhead! And if someone was still breathing, a knife across the throat! Milva was treacherous, she led those people to their fate and laughed… Now their blood calls. That blood, like a wasp’s venom, is devouring Maria from the inside. Maria is paying for Milva.’

the blood she spilled is blood she will have spilled—through abortion, or pregnancy (or, miscarriage, as it so tragically happened).

milva was conflicted about her pregnancy because it (a symbol of womanhood, the very traditional womanhood she had fled) conflicted with the identity she had come into since she had escaped that life (as a hunter, as a killer). remember that geralt calls her “half-dryad, half-woman,” when mocking the company as it was formed by the fish soup. milva feels this divide herself, tearing her apart, between hen and kite.

milva wanted to have the abortion because she did not want a child, to have a child conflicted with her identity and, i mean, just generally, her life (hard to hunt toting around a baby on your breast). but she also felt guilt that she planned abortion, because of her culture and social norms.

so she wanted to, but hesitated, wanted to, then hesitated again.

she was planning to head back with dandelion once he balked, but since dandelion never faltered as she had predicted him to, she didn’t have a chance to leave the company.

she didn't want to tell the rest she was pregnant, you can guess why, because she to them was milva and not maria, she didn't want to divulge her vulnerability.

‘I thought I’d drink some ergot or some other decoction, and you wouldn’t even notice, wouldn’t even guess (…) I saw how Dandelion puts on a brave face; but thought him weak, soft, not used to hardship. I was just waiting for him to give up and then we’d have to offload him. I thought if it got hard I’d go back with Dandelion… Now just look: Dandelion’s the hero, and I’m…’

during this time, she also didn't want to have the abortion, because it would have slowed the march and prevented them from travelling. similarly, she felt guilt because if she was to carry it to term, it would slow their company even more.

also, how in hell was she supposed to find someone to perform an abortion in this wilderness, in this warzone, anyhow?

well, by some miracle chance, they happened across a barber-surgeon. in a cemetery of all places. what luck for her, a medical professional makes himself known. (this meeting was on the first night of the full moon, the 18th of august).

The root of the [mandrake], which is a valued ingredient in medicine and herb lore, long ago had great import in superstitions, particularly among the Nordlings; human effigies (called alruniks or alraunes) were carved from it and kept in homes as revered talismans. They were believed to offer protection from illnesses, to bring good fortune during trials, and to ensure fertility and uncomplicated births.

but then, of course, the nilfgaardian stampede in the refugee camp happens (chapter 4, mid-day of august 19th) and said barber-surgeon turns out to be a vampire (chapter 5, dawn of august 20th).

and again, milva having being raised in the forest, and being a smart girl, and a human, fears supernatural things with fangs which sprout from darkness and simply disappear into thin air.

‘Don’t take the piss, Witcher,’ Milva growled. ‘You know more about vampires than we do. You’re mocking Dandelion, so tell me. I was raised in the forest, I didn’t go to school. I’m ignorant. But it’s no fault of mine. It’s not right to mock. I–I’m ashamed to say–am also a bit afraid of… Regis.’

so it takes her some time to get over her fear, until said thing with fangs explains himself and assures his friends (chapter 7, late august) … and that’s where we find ourselves now.

milva finally gets a chance, ten weeks into the pregnancy, to get some medical consult (of course regis knew long before this, actually the day after they met, for when she puked after punching the peasant clogs in the face—but he says nothing and just “smiled strangely”).

I think Regis realised the truth. But he kept quiet. He kept quiet until he couldn’t keep quiet any longer. When we stopped to make camp in a deserted woodmen’s shack, Milva led him into the forest, spoke to him at length and at times in quite a loud voice. The vampire returned from the forest alone. He brewed up and mixed some herbs, and then abruptly summoned us all to the shack. He began rather vaguely, in his annoying patronising manner.

so, what is happening in this “husbands and fathers” scene? why does regis poll the men, and why does milva choose not to have the abortion?

regis polls the “husbands” of the company because he wants to pressure geralt into speaking with milva.

(also, my opinion: i think milva probably asked regis to tell all the rest all about her situation, because regis is eloquent and has no anxieties about these subjects, and milva herself is terrified. i can 💯 believe that she told him, ‘oh hell, i don’t know how to say it, you tell them all…’)

‘She demanded,’ Regis began a short while later, ‘that I prepare and give her a strong and powerful… medicament. She considers it a remedy for the problem. Her mind is made up.’ ‘And have you?’ Regis smiled. ‘Without talking to the other fathers?’

this is a good time to remember that regis can be very coy, and sometimes likes to get to his point “rather vaguely.” (unlike the very direct and action-oriented milva (lady of the lake, ch. 7)!)

for instance, in chapter 5, when revealing himself, regis does not tell all the rest himself that they shouldn’t pity him and view as a wretched creature, that he’s actually very powerful, but rather he gets geralt himself to admit that regis’ value would be “bloody high,” so high that he doesn’t believe that anyone could afford it. it's only when geralt admits this that regis finally smiles and “fucks off,” as it were.

so, as it was then then, regis doesn’t immediately state what he believes or what he wants here—rather, he peppers the others with questions to get them to come to their own conclusions, just as a wonderful philosopher does. much to geralt’s annoyance:

‘Regis, you seem to be conducting something like a poll among us. Why? You’re the physician. The agent she’s asking for… yes, the agent. The word medicament doesn’t suit me somehow… Only you can prepare and give her this agent. And you’ll do it should she ask you for it again. You won’t refuse.’ ‘I’ve already prepared the agent,’ Regis said, showing them all a little bottle made of dark glass. ‘Should she ask again, I shall not refuse. Should she ask again,’ he repeated with force.

regis indeed will provide the abortive substance to milva, he won’t refuse here. as geralt points out, he’s the physician, he’s even already prepared the agent. regis doesn’t truly care about the results of this “poll” if one of the company were to refuse and express their disagreement. it’s milva’s decision.

he’s actually not asking them for their approval, at all. so, what does he want? why does he ask? what is he asking for?

‘What’s this all about then? Unanimity? Total agreement? Is that what you’re expecting?’ ‘You know very well what it’s about,’ the vampire answered. ‘You sense perfectly what ought to be done. But since you ask, I shall tell you. Yes, Geralt, that’s precisely what it’s about. Yes, that’s precisely what ought to be done. And no, it’s not me that’s expecting it.’

ah, more vagueness (which confuses dandelion, and potentially the majority of the fandom).

‘Could you be clearer?’ ‘No, Dandelion,’ the vampire snapped. ‘I can’t be any clearer. Particularly since there’s no need. Right, Geralt?’

what regis wants is for geralt to talk to milva before she decides to go forward the abortion. because her pregnancy and his child are tangled up (her debt, her baptism of fire), which are making it difficult for her to make a decision based on what SHE wants. there's cultural pressure to keep the pregnancy, and quest pressure to drop it.

regis wants geralt to give her his shoulder to cry on, and to tell her something like: "i'm not expecting you to have an abortion just so you can help me out with finding my kid. we'll stick with you as a company, no matter what." and it's not regis that's expecting this, as he says, but milva.

again, if milva keeps the pregnancy, this will mean difficulty imposed upon on the entire company, as she ceases to be a "use" and instead becomes a "millstone" for the company to protect (also this may be why dandelion didn't understand what regis was asking geralt for. because dandelion is also a millstone for the company).

geralt has to tell milva it's okay to be vulnerable. that, uh, being pregnant is #valid? because you see how milva has come to view herself, as a hindrance:

‘You didn’t expect this when we set off, did you? When you let me join the company? You thought: “So what if she’s a peasant; a foolish, country wench?” You let me join. “I won’t be able to talk to her about brainy things on the road,” you thought, “but she might come in useful. She’s a healthy, sturdy lass. She shoots a straight arrow, she won’t get a sore arse from the saddle, and if it gets nasty she won’t shit her britches. She’ll come in useful.” And it turns out she’s no use, just a hindrance. A millstone. A typical bloody woman!’

this talk with milva is hard for geralt, because this means he has to step up and be a leader (which he did not want to be, as he expressed at the start of the novel!)

‘Right,’ the Witcher said, resting his forehead on his clasped hands. ‘Yes, too bloody right. But why are you looking at me? You want me to do it? I don’t know how. I can’t. I’m not suited for this role at all… Not at all, get it?’

so, he's reluctant to speak to her about this, but, well, tough.

It’s now or never, he thought. I can’t run away from it. There’s no point putting it off. It’s got to be done (…)

he speaks to her, providing his support, and offering some significant words about debt and sacrifice:

‘(…) You offered me help in a moment when I needed help very much. There’s no way of paying off a debt like that. It’s impossible to repay something that has no price. Some say everything in the world–everything, with no exception–has a price. It’s not true. There are things with no price, things that are priceless. But you realise it belatedly: when you lose them, you lose them forever and nothing can get them back for you. I have lost many such things. Which is why I can’t help you today.’

‘But you have helped me,’ she replied, very calmly. ‘You don’t even know how you’ve helped me. Now go, please. Leave me alone.’

geralt doesn’t tell her to not have an abortion, but rather provides his support for her no matter her decision. he tells her that he doesn’t expect her to sacrifice her pregnancy for his child, that he cannot repay her if she does. and he reminds her that “some things (…) when you lose them, you lose them forever. i have lost many such things,” he’s talking about the pregnancy, as well as his own child, ciri.

directly following this exchange is the scene of regis throwing the medicament into the bushes, which confirms that milva, no longer feeling the burdens of identity and guilt, decided to keep her pregnancy.

her deciding to keep her pregnancy means something to the company, though: that they will all be extra vulnerable, because soon milva will have to stop riding horseback and will have to rest and deliver. but geralt expresses that he (and the rest) are willing to take on that burden, to slow down the march for milva to carry her pregnancy to term, because they're a company, they're brothers in arms. they sacrifice for each other!

this is reflected in the next scene, the “change of plans” geralt informs regis about, saying that he no longer wants them to go through ysgith as they had previously planned (because it’s too dangrous for milva, which is what regis argues back to him about—“i would say even more than [physically] fit. the hormones…” ... lol, regis).

this is a huge moment for geralt’s character development, as he has come to identify himself as having a company, and then to value his company. in the beginning of the novel, he was willing to sacrifice anything for ciri, and now he has realized that there are some things (some people) which he is unwilling to sacrifice for her.

‘(…) I understood it was urgent. That it was important for you to acquire the information and set off to rescue your Ciri as quickly as possible.’

‘It is,’ Geralt said, looking away. ‘It’s very important to me. I want to rescue Ciri and get her back. Until recently I thought I’d do it at any price. But no. I won’t pay that price, I won’t consent to taking that risk. We won’t go through Ysgith.’

resulting in this reaction from regis, somewhat commending, and intrigued by him:

‘Geralt,’ the vampire said, still not taking his eyes away from the Witcher. ‘You’re a strange man. To make myself clear, I wasn’t being critical. Right, then. We give up on Ysgith, which is dangerous for a woman with child. We cross to the far bank of the Yaruga, which you consider safer.’

their new direction to across the yaruga, however, turned out to be just as dangerous, and with tragic consequences.

[bizarre-blorbo-bracket]

Round 1 poll 23: Judas Iscariot from the Bible vs Reynard the Fox from mideaval European Folklore

Propaganda under the cut:

Judas Iscariot

so i've always been sort of fascinated with the judas kiss as a thing in the bible. i was just always like dang it's wild that that exists. i would attempt to draw/paint/sketch it constantly in high school and i didn't really know why. the way i learned the name of the garden of gethsemane properly was one time i was feeling extremely faint as one does and as i was gripping my head on the floor of the bathroom, face a few inches from the tile, i just heard gethsemane, gethsemane, gethsemane repeating in my head over and over again. and i was like what the fuck is gethsemane and i looked it up and i was like OH. so fast forward a little little bit and i watch the last days of judas iscariot at a formative teenage year of my life and i am WOWED. i watch that last scene with jesus and judas MANY MANY TIMES. i'm OBSESSED i want to carve it out and eat it. after watching the play in full i show it to my actually catholic friend. she enjoys it. something about judas in that play clicks for me, and suddenly there's this whole context for my relationship with judas that makes a lot of sense to me, a traumatized former catholic. i become a HOUND for all media with judas in it. i am like a connoisseur and archive. i am just obsessed with it. i listen to clown bible in full. it makes me cry every time i listen to it. JUDAS by the reverent marigold WRECKS me because it's explicitly about judas as a scapegoat as an allegory for the trans experience with religion and it is a BANGER. like it's so good. i buy a copy of the script of the last days, of corpus christi by terrence mcnally, of judas by jeff loveness. i listen to several versions of jesus christ superstar in full and i am WOWED i did not expect it to be that good. someone on tiktok says that trans men's vocal chords thicken like cis men's on testosterone but don't lengthen, and that these shorter vocal chords make it easier for us to sing in a strong, natural falsetto. and i think about how jcs is full of really high tenors and briefly i start drawing red lines all over my life like, BOY HAS VISION OF GETHSEMANE AND IS TRANS BECAUSE THE UNIVERSE WANTS HIM TO PLAY A PRINCIPLE ROLE IN JCS??? and it's a brief lapse in sanity that i don't take seriously but one of my favorite jcs jesuses also had a weirdly prophetic vision of himself playing the part in jcs (i'm obsessed with him), and i'm like okay. i don't know what to do with all that information. anyway. i haven't played anyone in jcs and likely never will but i am still very attached to judas as like a mythological figure and symbol. i wrote an essay about him for an essay class that ended up being 19 pages unspaced. prof was warned beforehand that it was going to be long and she was very nice and encouraging about it um so thank god for that. yeah i have the absolute weirdest relationship with judas. and it has only been magnified with each new media and seeing people's various takes on judas as either redemptive/antihero/tragic figure/scapegoat/etc etc etc. currently obsessed with the parallels between him and jesus and him and mary magdalene in jcs. jcs ended up kind of extending the obsession to the three of them. i have a bust of jesus looking so so forlorn in my room. impulse buy. anyway. love him deeply obsessed with him turned me insane i think

Reynard the Fox

I feel like a mega weirdo for finding this medieval archetypal creature so endearing, especially considering the atrocities he commits in the stories he’s a part of. There’s just something so fun about a really old story about a bunch of morally grey animals engaging in shenanigans meant to satirize and mirror our society.

[daydreaming-memories]

omg??? we're doing an updated paracosm pinned post???

EDIT: For asks please keep the questions in one singular ask keep it at max 3 questions. this is for our own sanity

This blog is ran by a system and we call ourselves the neon sysd.

You're mainly going to see me Nyx [he/they/fae]

But others from the system may pop up like Ribs [He/rots] or Blaze [He/Him]

We have madd/maladaptive daydreaming disorder n plenty of other but onto real info

Our main paracosm is "Daycosm 3"

It's a blanket paracosm [paracosm that has other paracosms inside of it] with a bunch of older paracosms as subcosms [smaller paracosms inside a blanket paracosm] that is a mutual paracosm [means we share it, but we could use monocosmic as well lmao] of the system

[NEW CONTENT (JAN 12 2024)

Into the Flip pit / Flipside-Ball pit-

A fnaf X dsaf X faith the unholy trinity crossover paracosm, this is mainly daydreamed by [alter]Blaze & [alter]Ribs

Scorned Reverance Ava AU/ScornRance AVA-

An Animation vs animator paracosm which is mainly daydreamed by [Alter]Drake, there are a good amount of changes compared to canon & some popular fanon hcs are heavily ignored keep this in mind

]

Major note: We may interchangiably use para, oc n character but do know we know the difference, it's just that even though we've been here a while the lines are still thin in our mind about our own paras

Our paras are mainly:

Primpara [original para, no source, generally an oc]

Fantapara [paras inspired by canon character or reimagined in a way that barely resembles canon]

Veritbonds [A very special type of para, hard to explain but close n alive]

Paraselves [for me nyx and various alters we insert ourselves]

Please be courtous & respect our boundaries

[Also please do not call our paras hot/cute or like romantic things unless we're close n we've told you elsewise makes the system uncomfortable as we're on the aroace spectrum who has been previously abused]

Also do keep in mind plenty of us are paratives [originally a para, now apart of the system] so don't be too weird

Alright now on to some info about daycosm 3 shall I?

HUGE themes of cycles, repeating patterns along with recovery from trauma/abuse.

THe paracosm is very much somehow a fantasy crossed over with scifi..?? idk i'm silly and getting tored

We have a ton of things we have on the back burner of stuff to get out for the paracosm here are some:

A paracosm wiki on notion

General paracosm guide

Magic, Tech and Science lore

Places & locations

Species/race guides [Object bio infodump \ Simple tdlr]

fauna n flora along with some dishes stuff

inuniverse books, social media and media in general

Important items

religions n cultures

holidays n events

Deities, curses and blessings

Layerverse n the concept of aus n the multiverse

groups, organizations and brands

History of paracosm

Many tournaments [like whose the most sexyman, and others but wanna mention an end of year award show]

Multiple fics [main ones on mind are pokemon crossover, minecosm v20, and some others]

old poll paracosm dumps [like 16 at least wheeze]

hey it's the end just wanted to add one last note before I post & pin this.

The paracosm has plenty of sources and inspirations that I actively distain & are as actively critical of (as I can be) due to parts of said media or things the creator(s) has done.

Always trying to be better, but just wanna dream a bit longer

it's the closet I'll have to a home anywa

[justkeepwalkingnothinghere]

(I recently reblogged my most recent poll and dropped a bunch of Castor lore in said reblog. Decided to make it it’s own post instead of being buried under a bunch of other stuff. The poll in question was asking when Castor should confess his crush to Raeda, either at Hexside when they were kids or after Eda’s Requiem roughly 30 years later)

Figured I should do a little bit of lore dumping for this instead of leaving you all in the dark. This isn’t to manipulate the votes in any way and is merely to give you all some insight on where the story will go depending on the results. Also my brain was nagging me to tell you some parts of the story, so. A few details may be subject to change.

WARNING: VERY LONG!! IT IS VERY DETAILED!! (I meant to summarize it but I ended up dumping almost the entire plot. This has been in my drafts for the last 72+ hours. Here you go!)

At Hexside: This route is fairly simple and self explanatory. After Castor’s crush on them is pointed out to him by Darius (who doesn’t want a repeat of all the pining he had to endure with Raeda), he spends some time coming to terms with it, worried that his feelings will disrupt the close best friend circle that had formed between him, Raine, and the Clawthornes. During this time, he and Lilith snuck away to Eda’s hideout in the detention room a few times as his feelings developed. Unfortunately, one day during lunch Castor forgot about a prank he was doing with Eda and Raine during that time and they overheard his and Lily’s conversation, making for a very awkward and ill-timed confession that he wasn’t quite ready for.

After a couple weeks of the three silently evaluating how they all felt about each other, they slowly starting dating. And a month and a half in, it was safe to say the trio were head over heels for each other. But things changed a lot once Eda’s curse came into the picture. Castor, Raine, Lilith, even Darius, were all there for her through the first couple of months before she eventually dropped out. Things at Hexside weren’t the same afterward. Well, at least until Eda started sneaking in and spending most of her time in her hideout. Raine, Castor, or both would bring her lunch everyday she was there and sometimes stay for a bit to hang out and talk. But Eda hiding out stopped after a while. Faust had no idea, but even decades later, it’s still up for debate whether or not Bump knew about it. He probably did. (I’m not gonna mention Lilith much after this point since I’m not entirely sure what happens after coven tryouts)

Everyone spent four more years at Hexside before graduating, in which they tried to stay in contact. Castraeda (official ship name) stayed together for years, with Raine teaching Castor the mandolin and Eda teaching him how to play Raine’s Rhapsody. Unfortunately, the curse got worse during this time and Eda quickly began to push the two away. The Raeda breakup occurred while Castor was away, with him soon hearing about it from Lilith. It was a shock to him, but he too was starting to take notice of Eda’s recent behavior. Castor and Raine tried to make it work (with Raine quickly regretting their breakup with Eda) but, as much as it hurt them, ultimately decided to break it off as well and wish each other luck in their endeavors as Raine joined the Bard Coven.

Castor went to comfort Eda soon after, not intending to separate. He stayed at the Clawthorne house with her and Gwen for a few days (Gwen adores him) before they reached a mental understanding that it was time for them to split as well, both unsure about their futures. They made sure to stay friends no matter what happened, but despite everyone’s best efforts to do so, all three of them went their separate ways and mostly went silent for the time being. Raine spent years rising through the ranks of the Bard Coven, Eda went on to become the Owl Lady, and Castor spent a few years undercover as a scout at the EC to gather as much info on Belos as he could as he started to get suspicious of the emperor’s practices. He later switched to a quiet life as a merchant at the market, always taking note of Eda’s many wanted posters, and occasionally talking to Lily when she had the chance.

Later on, a few years after Eda found King, Castor unofficially moved into the Owl House when his home was attacked by Emperor’s Coven scouts who found out he was a wild witch. He figured who else to go to than the most famous wild witch in the isles? King was a bit weird around him and the new change, but warmed up to him as time went on. They never really talked about getting back together, thinking it too soon after reuniting to do so and neither of them brought it up. They were going to stay strictly friends until they felt the time was right, which was never. Surprisingly, this never got difficult when Luz decided to stick around, but as soon as Raine was announced as the new head Bard, Castor knew things were about to get awkward.

And he was sort of right. Later that same day, he and Eda joined the BATs and began helping the group free wild witches. That day, he had never been more relieved to see Raine and Eda together. His feelings for both of them returned with full force and he started pining for those wonderful days again, where it was just the three of them. Not to mention he kicked himself for days for not getting back together with Eda sooner, having already thought about it ever since her near petrification gave him a wake up call. Raine’s presence was all it took for the trio to fall back into a familiar rhythm of sorts. A couple hours into the night, one teary eyed confession from Castor and one wonderful embrace later, they were the happiest they’d been in a long while.

But it would all have to be put on hold, as Eda and Castor’s hearts were shattered when Raine got captured. They were both distraught and had a little bit of trouble sleeping that night, despite the immense joy about King becoming a Clawthorne. And the Coven Day Parade didn’t help things. Castor was ecstatic when Eda managed to find them, only to be met with a version of Raine completely unrecognizable to him, one clearly being controlled by Terra Snapdragon. He watched and heard Eda and Raine’s fight from the nearby rooftops, his heart breaking more with every word out of Raine’s mouth. He and Eda couldn’t believe what had happened for a while after.

Now, due to Castor’s spur of the moment confession of still having feelings for them both, Eda and Castor slowly started to get a bit more affectionate. They were slowly but surely falling back into old ways. This lasted for weeks and became stronger in the days leading up to the DOU, when they needed comfort most. They were both more than a little pissed with Raine when they found out about the pretend brainwashing shortly after being rescued. But they were relived Raine was okay more than anything. Eventually, all was forgiven, especially after Raine met Luz for the first time. Which Castor thought was adorable.

It was that night when everyone else was asleep at the CATTs base that they were able to talk about their feelings a lot more than they were able to in Eda’s Requiem. Deep down, they all wanted to give things another go once all the chaos was over. And that was exactly what they were gonna do, never having stopped loving each other, which was obvious to everyone but them. Admittedly, Castor couldn’t hold in much of his enthusiasm and excitement over the next 24 hours. But as you could guess, things did not go well, starting with Castor being asked to accompany the Hexsquad in rescuing Amity, with him being the only adult in the group not directly involved with stopping the Draining Spell. Not a problem at first, but a heartbreaking fact later on.

From rescuing Luz, to feeling broken seeing the plan fail with Eda and Raine caught right in the middle, to fighting off Belos and ending up in the Human Realm, everything was a blur until he was truly able to process it all and catch his bearings that same night. He and Camila stayed up late, Castor sharing stories with her over coffee and ensuring her that he’d be there for any difficulties that they’d run into in the time everyone would be there. They formed a close friendship in the months staying with her, never moving past that point but putting quite a bit of trust in each other. It felt nice having someone to lean on when the anxiety of the situation became too much.

Castor kept thinking about the BI. Especially Raeda, fearing that the were gone without ever being able to say a proper goodbye or spend their last minutes with them. But he kept his hopes up that he’d see them again. He never let up in attempting to get the portal working. Despite the little bit of trauma from seeing Hunter get possessed, Castor helped Camila get an understanding of her surroundings, regaling her with even more tales of the wonder that was the Demon Realm. (Everything after this point is pure speculation since they haven’t reunited with Eda and King yet)

Words could not describe how happy he was to see Eda, safe and sound. He couldn’t help but cry as they embraced, having missed her and Raine beyond belief. They even shared a quick dance, completely caught in the moment. Just Eda and her sweet Spellcastor. Let’s let them have this moment for a bit longer. Because Titan knows how it’s gonna be once they find out their precious Rainestorm/Songbird is possessed by Belos.

(I did not mean to go this deep into detail, but my brain would not stop. Oh well)

After Eda’s Requiem: Almost everything above, except Castor held onto his feelings for roughly 30 or so years before finally letting it out before the DOU because he figured if things go south, he’d much rather go out knowing that Eda and Raine knew about it after all this time. He still hears about the Raeda breakup through a crow call from Lilith and ends up in the Human Realm with the kids, the reunion with Eda being a bit awkward, with neither knowing how to go about their feelings during the end of the world. He’s still going to be upset at finding out about Belos/Puppet!Raine.

Like I said, details are subject to change. Enjoy the lore everyone! Hexside TL;DR below.

Hexside TL;DR: The three get together at Hexside, break up years later in young adulthood, spend 15-20 years going about their lives, Castor moves in with Eda a few years after King comes into her life, the three reunite in Eda’s Requiem with Castor admitting he still has feelings, E and C’s hearts break with Raine being “brainwashed”, all three really discuss their feelings 24 hours before the DOU, Castor ends up in the HR with the kids, cries when he reunites with Eda months later (At this point they still don’t know about Belos!Raine).

Now let’s see how everything plays out.

Original poll.

[sammysam999]

Honestly the results - as sad as they are - are very much in accordance with the trends seen around all social media: Marginalized people are more likely to get targeted by harassment and thus more likely to get silenced and pushed from platforms (Unfortunately the dream of the internet and social media as equalizer of discussion sovereignty died rather fast...).

Tumblr is in this case not different even if it advertises itself as "queerest site on the web"... which we can argue about, but also: White queer communities more often than not struggle with dismantling racism in their own ranks... otherwise they might be less white actually. Part of the struggle is often white fragility, but in queer (and leftist) spaces I feel often also plays the self-image of those groups specifically as progressive a role in those struggles. Because the self-image doesn't fit with the reality of those groups as progressives or as discriminated class themselves. It causes a dissonance that the communities struggle to address. Add to this the current trend especially of online spaces of catastrophizing every misstep a person does as the worst thing ever, which is especially bad in certain spaces of tumblr and you create an environment even less likely to examine potential shortcomings.

All of that makes it so, that we can see some queer and leftist communities develop nearly a resistance to investigate discriminatory behaviors and blind spots in their own ranks. All of which causes a hostile environment for POC. Which might sting more because, well, we expect racism from the right, we expect racism from not small parts of society in general, but shouldn't other marginalized people know better? Shouldn't leftist groups know better? Shouldn't groups that have declared anti racism and inclusion part of their causes do better? And, yes, the answer is they should. But we don't. Not enough at least.

Additionally tumblr doesn't offer much reason to resist this hostile environment either: Especially those using social media for activism/journalism might endure hostility if they can still reach more people with their work that way, however tumblr is by now comparable small and not worth to deal with racist harassment. There are other alternatives that offer a bigger audience. And those who just seek community instead of using their social media for educating others? Probably moved to discord.

And then of course there is the issue of moderation on tumblr. Basically badly constructed and enforced moderation has a provable impact especially on marginalized people. Especially automated moderation and moderation using AI causes disproportionately marginalized people to get punished and banned. Tumblr is running on losses and the point at which that was noticeable for the longest time is the way moderation works or better doesn't work. While during the last months the cases causing most attention are the repeated false flaggings and bans against trans women (because there is probably a bunch of transphobes and radfems mass reporting them), we can assume that POC on tumblr got and get hit probably similarly often. But because the communities they had on tumblr did shrink over the last few years massively, I fear that any outcry is lacking the reach to cause many waves. Which obviously causes even less reasons to stay on this site...

So...yeah, it's not that surprising that the results point to tumblr being that white. Even with the limited reach and other reasons to take the poll with a grain of salt, it tracks with general sad development on social media. As depressing as it is.

Wanna see some actual numbers on this bc of another post. I’m curious.

Also yes I know categorization of race is complicated especially outside US contexts etc. etc. I just wanna know how comparatively cracker-dominant this site is, this ain’t a census survey.

If you white-mixed its up to you what to choose I ain’t measuring your genealogy or some shit.

Reblog this, maybe even multiple times, to increase response pool and visibility.

[ivankahasbeentreatedsounfairly]

By Jim Rutenberg and Alan Feuer

Former President Donald J. Trump and his allies are rolling out a late-stage campaign strategy that borrows heavily from the subversive playbook he used to challenge his loss four years ago, this time with reinforcements from outside groups built on the false notion of a stolen election.

With Election Day only three days away, Mr. Trump is already claiming the Democrats are “a bunch of cheats,” as his allies in battleground states spread distorted reports of mishaps at the polls to push a narrative of widespread fraud.

Mr. Trump and his most prominent supporters have pointed to partisan polling and betting markets to claim that he is heading for a “crushing victory,” as his top surrogate Elon Musk recently put it. The expectation helps set the stage for disbelief and outrage among his supporters should he lose.

And in a direct echo of his failed — and, prosecutors say, illegal — bid to remain in power after the 2020 election, some of his most influential advisers are suggesting he will yet again seek to claim victory before all the votes are counted, a move that ushered in his efforts to deny his defeat four years ago and helped set the stage for the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

In many respects, though, the effort that led to Jan. 6 never ended.

“It’s been four years of spreading lies about elections and recruiting volunteers to challenge the system, filing litigation,’’ said Joanna Lydgate, the chief executive of States United Democracy Center, a nonprofit group that works with state officials to bolster confidence in their elections. “What we’re seeing today is all of that coming to fruition.”

The Trump campaign did not respond to an email seeking comment.

In a statement, Dana Remus, a top lawyer for Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, said, “It isn’t surprising that he is already questioning the results of a still ongoing election” and added, “He failed when he tried this in 2020, and he will fail again.”

Polls show the race is effectively tied, leaving the possibility that Mr. Trump will win and have no reason to dispute the outcome. In that case, the question of whether to accept the results would fall to Ms. Harris, who has said she would uphold “free and fair elections” and the “peaceful transfer of power.”

For all the similarities, there are important differences between now and 2020, some of which reassure the coalition of civil rights lawyers, Democrats, Republicans and election administrators working to prevent a repeat of 2020:

Congress has passed a new law, the Electoral Count Reform Act, meant to make it harder to stop the final certification of the results by Congress on Jan. 6, as Mr. Trump tried to do four years ago.

Mr. Trump no longer has control of the federal government — which he sought to use to press his 2020 case. In the states, there are fewer like-minded Republicans in key positions of power than there were four years ago.

Some of the loudest clarions for stolen election theories have paid heavily for circulating them, including Fox News, which last year paid Dominion Voting Systems $787 million to settle a lawsuit over the network’s promotion of false theories that Dominion’s machines had switched votes.

And the experience of 2020, along with more recent clashes over voting issues, has taught election administrators lessons about fortifying themselves against a similar effort this year.

“You have the benefit of something having happened once before,” said the Pennsylvania secretary of state, Al Schmidt, a Republican. “You learn from it to guide you moving forward.”

But the threat of another chaotic post-election period remains.

While Mr. Trump no longer has control of the federal government, a movement of activists has succeeded in putting election-doubting conservatives in position across the voting system, as poll watchers, election workers and even local officials in charge of certifying local results.

The new law has loopholes that Mr. Trump could try to exploit. For instance, the law sets a new, hard deadline by which states must send their final, certified election results to Washington ahead of the Electoral College vote. But some Trump-aligned officials have called for blocking certification at the local level, raising the possibility that the process could be stalled ahead of that deadline. The law has no clear remedy for cases where it is missed.

blob:https://www.tumblr.com/1a9bd5cd-e5eb-4efc-a32c-03dc9af494fe

Finally, though some news organizations like Fox and Newsmax have faced serious defamation claims for spreading conspiracy theories about Dominion voting machines, the major social media platforms have dramatically scaled back efforts to curb false content.

None have gone farther than X, formerly Twitter, whose founder, Mr. Musk, has actively used the platform to promote the sense that Mr. Trump is destined to win and to spread his own false voting claims.

“There has been a lot of investment by allies of President Trump to suggest that his victory is inevitable,” said David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, a nonpartisan organization that advises election officials. “That’s the expectation being set among some of his supporters.”

Step 1: Claim Victory

The period leading up to Election Day has featured several scenes that seem to be ripped from court filings in the federal case charging Mr. Trump with election interference over his actions after his defeat in 2020. (Mr. Trump has pleaded not guilty.)

When Stephen K. Bannon, an influential right-wing media figure and close Trump adviser, was released from prison on Tuesday, he quickly told reporters that Mr. Trump should act preemptively on election night and simply claim victory.

As Mr. Bannon said: “He should stand up and say: ‘Hey, I’ve won this. And we have teams right now that are going to make sure that this thing is not going to be stolen.’”

In recently filed court papers naming Mr. Bannon as a co-conspirator in Mr. Trump’s federal election interference case, the special counsel, Jack Smith, noted that Mr. Bannon had said the same thing four years ago.

“What Trump’s going to do is just declare victory, right?” he said, according to the records, later adding, “That doesn’t mean he’s the winner, he’s just going to say he’s the winner.”

Mr. Trump did just that, unleashing a barrage of lawsuits challenging swing-state results, nearly all of which failed as various judges found claims of fraud to be lacking.

That legal failure did not stop his efforts. He and several allies then sought to convince Republican legislators in states that President Joseph R. Biden had won that they had the power to submit their own slates of pro-Trump Electoral College delegates, effectively rejecting the popular vote. Several of those involved in that operation were later indicted.

The new law specifies that only governors or other executives can send electors to Washington, cutting state legislatures out of the process. Yet, some Trump allies have already suggested they could again turn to state lawmakers.

An architect of the 2020 strategy, John Eastman, recently told Politico that he believed the new law was unconstitutional. (Mr. Eastman is under indictment in Arizona and Georgia over his 2020 election activities and has pleaded not guilty in both states.)

Step 2: Sow Doubt

Elections always bring a range of human and technological errors, but Mr. Trump and his allies have distorted the nature of such events, painting them as evidence of Democratic wrongdoing.

“They’ve already started cheating in Lancaster,” Mr. Trump said at a rally on Tuesday night in Allentown, Pa. A day earlier, he had posted on Truth Social that Lancaster County, Pa., had discovered “Fake Ballots and Forms.”

Pennsylvania was “cheating and getting caught at large-scale levels rarely seen before,” he declared later in the week.

In reality, the episode in Lancaster was worrisome but was not evidence of widespread of malfeasance. Election officials said that a batch of suspicious registration applications — not ballots — had been turned in by a canvassing firm. Officials reported them to law enforcement agencies.

In 2020, it was a fringe of Mr. Trump’s advisers and allies that cheered him on. Now, the entire party machinery — and prominent and influential allies — are using various levers to claim publicly that the only way Mr. Trump can lose is through cheating.

The Republican National Committee, which is now under the joint leadership of the former president’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, and the one-time party counsel, Michael Whatley, has made “election integrity” a top priority. (The lawyer in charge of the committee’s “election integrity” team, Christina Bobb, was charged with conspiracy by the Arizona attorney general in connection with her efforts to keep Mr. Trump in power four years ago; she pleaded not guilty.)

Last week, Mr. Whatley posted online about the arrest of a woman at polling station in Delaware County, Pa., who had been urging voters to remain in line, calling the incident election interference. The local authorities later defended the arrest, saying the woman had been acting disruptively.

Using another tactic from 2020, Mr. Trump and his allies have also complained this year that states like Pennsylvania and Arizona are unlikely to finish counting votes until well after Election Day, suggesting the delays are somehow improper or nefarious.

In 2020, conspiracy theories about the pace of the vote count were some of the first to swirl in the days after Mr. Trump’s defeat.

Election officials note that mail ballots can take more time to count and that delays are not a sign of trouble. Still, they have been working to speed the process, knowing they are in a race against misinformation.

“You’ve got to decrease the amount of time,’’ said the secretary of state in Nevada, Cisco Aguilar. “Shut down the chatter.”

Step 3: Disrupt

While Mr. Trump’s 2020 effort was chiefly focused on disrupting the last step of the election — certification of the results in Congress — Mr. Trump’s allies this year have also zeroed in on vulnerabilities at the beginning of the process.

That starts with about 10,000 local jurisdictions where officials have a mandate to certify the votes before sending them up to their state capitals, which upon their own statewide certifications then send their totals and delegate slates on to Washington.

Though the task is prescribed by law as mandatory throughout the states, board or commission members in at least 20 counties across eight states have moved to block certification, in some rare cases succeeding at least temporarily.

Officials across the swing states have prepared legal papers to force any recalcitrant boards to certify results on time.

Both sides are paying close attention to the process, which Mr. Bannon seemed to hint at during his remarks this week.

“The only thing that matters,’’ he said, “is votes that can be certified from American citizens, and that’s what we’re focused on.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/us/politics/donald-trump-kalama-harris-campaign.html

[clearturtletrash]

Horikoshi’s writing of Shouto and the problems I have with it

If you’re a fan of the way Shouto’s treated in the manga, don’t read, we’ll end up disagreeing on everything and you’ll probably end up offended lol. Because I’m not (satisfied, that is). 

This post is spoiler-heavy for anime onlys, and for manga readers not up to date with the last arc (and last chapter for that matter, which is 301).

So, about Shouto and how he’s handled, along with ‘his’ story.

I don’t get how Horikoshi, whose writing I respect immensely, managed to depict such an incredible and alluring storyline with the Todoroki family, with some of the most complex character writing I’ve seen, but fumbled the one character he had to actually focus on.

Literally more than half the people in the Todoroki storyline are more interesting and more developed than Shouto at this point. Hawks, Endeavour, Dabi, Rei… a good bunch of fans are way more invested in their story than his, and I am too. It’s really sad, because if you asked me two years ago Shouto would have probably been one of my favorite character. But he was completely shafted, given no internal conflict, and at this point, I have the same interest in him as I do for Fuyumi and Natsuo, which basically means his only interesting feature to me is that he’s Endeavour’s child (oh, and he does have a cool design, but that can only get you so far).  

Deku and Katsuki are more popular than him by a landslide compared to before if we believe the Japanese popularity polls, because Hori actually bothers to give them focus, conflict, and cool moments (even though, sometimes I feel like Horikoshi forgets Deku’s his main character lol). It’s a testament to how great Shouto was and how much potential had that he’s still that popular despite everything. Because, let’s be real, Endeavour and Dabi have taken the focus because they have much more emotional energy, while Shouto is just stuck in the crossfire, as a punching ball and stress relief (and eventually as the person who’ll save him I guess) for Touya (see how he was relegated to first aid during the big fight against Tomura? how he did absolutely nothing against Touya who was burning him alive? And how Touya had no interest in Shouto outside of the fact he was Endeavour’s son? Story of the way Hori treats him). He has no particular interesting insight to give on the Todoroki family either as he was too small to remember the important events, so even on this point we can’t count on Horikoshi to write something for him, everything comes from Fuyumi, Natsuo, and Rei. He's really had one great moment in S2 and S3 and that’s it. The way Horikoshi struggles to give him a personality doesn’t help either (he admitted some time ago he was hard to write sometimes, and… yeah, I can see that).  I’m really trying to like his character but the manga gives us nothing, and keeps developing Endeavour, Dabi, and Hawks, which is great (I really love all three of them) but makes no sense given who’s supposed to be the main focus.

In the Endeavour agency arc, Endeavour’s thoughts and struggles were heavily touched upon, and Bakugou and Deku are in sync for 90% of it while Shouto’s just… there. as fodder for Endeavour, and maybe as a link between Endeavour and Bakugou/Deku too. He’s supposed to be a part of both these storylines, but instead, he just ends up as a way for them to overlap. we don't even take a peek in his thoughts, even though it's supposed to be an arc about the Todorokis!

I say all this as someone who eagerly waited for the day Horikoshi would portray Shouto, Katsuki, and Deku as a trio, but yeah, Shouto feels more like a third wheel than anything. if he wanted to establish them that way, he should have done it right after the sports festival arc, but after this arc, they have no scene together, and the focus shifted on Deku and Katsuki. Too little too late I guess.  

To come back to the Todoroki storyline, I feel like Horikoshi simply woke up one day and decided Endeavour was more interesting to write lmao. at this point, it’s more Endeavour’s storyline than Shouto’s, even though Shouto’s supposedly one of the main characters. it has come to a point where, even though I know it ought to focus on Shouto because he’s (at least he should be) the main focus of this particular storyline, I’m hoping it won’t, because that’s just the least interesting aspect of this whole thing.  

I’d say even Ochako’s treated better by the story, because at least Horikoshi tries to challenge her views and beliefs (even though for now it’s not very conclusive), while Shouto’s inner growth hasn't been put into question in how many chapters?

(btw, by inner growth, I’m not talking about his problem with his fire side, because that’s just been rinse and repeat for more than 200 chapters. I mean, srsly it’s been already 3 times since this problem has caused him to lose/fail... and it's not even satisfying like Katsuki or Deku (except for the first time in the sport festival, because that was when his character was still handled very well by Horikoshi). Why? Simply because when he loses, the stakes aren’t high, it’s all training or exams, so he’s just like, "oh, I have to maybe learn how to deal with it!", but there’s no real pressure he’s under. It’s not like Deku, who, if he does not progress, will break all his bones, and who failed to rescue Katsuki because of his broken arms (=and had a mental breakdown immediately afterwards and blamed himself). It’s not like Katsuki either, because Katsuki has a personality that makes low stakes feel like high stakes, which isn’t the case for Shouto. just compare Shouto's reaction when he loses because of his setbacks to Katsuki's reaction when he lost to Deku the first time (mental breakdown), or when Katsuki failed the provisional license exam (another mental breakdown, not caused just by his failing, but yeah). And anything else about Shouto's inner growth is tied to his reaction to Endeavour’s arc, which isn’t a flaw, and 100% depends on the way Endeavour acts. Apart from this, he has 0 internal conflict).  

Sorry, I’ve gone off on a tangent lol.

To get back to the point I was making, and to further develop my analogy with Ochako, let’s look at their relationship with Deku, because there’s a major difference there, which is clearly in favor of Ochako.  Deku has a big impact on Ochako, yes, but the reverse is also true. People complain she’s all about him (which, yeah, probably), but at least, she made a big impact on him too. She was the main reason ‘Deku' became his hero name. Shouto and Deku have a nice friendship, and Deku clearly considers him one of his best friends. but... it’s all one-sided in terms of impact, I can’t think of a single thing Shouto has done who changed/motivated Deku, while Deku literally changed his life. Because of this, he’s not one of the people who’s intrinsically tied to Deku’s character development, because he’s not Ochako, Inko, Katsuki or All Might (and probably soon Tomura).

His writing feels so fast compared to the others too. Shigaraki / Deku and Toga / Ochako have been paralleled for ages, have had a conversation at least once, and have had deep encounters early on. Nonetheless, both Deku and Ochako are just coming to terms with the fact these villains aren’t so different from them. However, Shouto’s only interaction with Dabi is a ten second eye contact when Dabi kidnapped Katsuki. Dabi had more interactions with Endeavour for fuck's sake! Shouto then learns Dabi’s Touya, and speed runs the development of Ochako and Deku. He doesn’t even need 10 chapters to process they’re ’the same'. Where were all the reflection and doubts? Okay, it’s his brother, so the parallels are easier, but still, it shows Horikoshi doesn’t allow Shouto to have that much introspection, and I feel it’s because Horikoshi just doesn’t care that much. Even worse! Horikoshi introduces another hero parallel to Dabi in the character of Hawks. A parallel much more interesting and compelling, because it parallels Dabi MUCH BETTER. They’re opposites in every ways (particularly in regards to their relationship with Endeavor), and know each other. Touya and Shouto don’t even seem to have spoken to each other...

And so, the only thing that still was interesting and that Horikoshi still bothered to develop was Shouto’s relationship with Endeavour, but in the end, even that was overshadowed by the much more complex, fucked up, and challenging relationships of Endeavour and Touya (and Endeavour and Hawks) as seen in 301 and before. Clearly the one Dabi’s fixated on is Endeavour.

one last thing: Shouto's stuck in a weird loop where Horikoshi kind of makes him comes close of the Bakugou and Deku duo, and then when we start to think they’re an actual trio, he does everything in his power to make it very clear how that’s NOT where he belongs either, since OFA/All Might/Deku/Katsuki is another storyline. It’s as if Horikoshi doesn’t want him here (see: how he decided the ‘win all might’ scene didn’t have to include him), but puts him there sometimes anyway. It’s probably because Shouto’s so popular, which, yeah, would be fine, if he could stick to it!

His supposed admiration for All Might (I feel like everybody forgets it's a part of his character, and I don't blame them) is brought up once every blue moon, which compared to Deku and Katsuki, is just ridiculous. And, once again, All Might has a much deeper and more interesting relationship with Endeavour than with Shouto. At this point, I don’t even know what Hori could do to make me want to read about him. I much prefer the dynamic of Hawks/Endeavour/Touya and Katsuki/Deku/All Might.

I hope the future will prove me wrong for his character. Actually, I hope everything I’m saying is wrong and idiotic, and Horikoshi will make every scene I criticized worth it and a means to an end. I mean, he clearly has the talent and writing ability to pull off some of the best character development I’ve ever seen, so anything’s possible. but yeah, I don’t really believe it for now, and I’m frustrated, because Shouto had so much potential.

tldr; I liked Shouto as a character, but he dwindled after some time, and now I feel as if he’s not the focus of his own storyline, because this place is occupied by the much more dynamic relationships of Endeavour, Touya and Hawks. And I’m not even mad, because their dynamic is much more interesting. However, I feel like Horikoshi grew bored of Shouto, and has put much more soul into Katsuki and Deku as of late.

I’m welcoming any responses, if people are seeing an aspect of his character I don’t, please enlighten me! I miss enjoying his character, and I’m not opposed to seeing him in a different light. I just needed to put down my thoughts in writing to make sense of them lol.

[gwydpolls]

I wrote a bunch of replies, and added a bunch of things to another Early Modern and earlier poll. All unique suggestions made it into a future poll.

I fear several replies got lost and i am too tired to go back through and figure out which of the many things people said got lost. the few things I likely lost were explanations of why something wasn't listed. (Eliminated in previous polling or currently in a winner pair up, waiting for a new match). It was not malice, just exhaustion,

Once again, I want to thank everyone for putting in suggestions. When I dropped the first one in the summer of 2023 I had no idea we'd still be doing this over a year later. It has been an immense pleasure.

Upcoming polls: We have a little more 19th century left. I am working on another early modern and earlier poll based on plentiful suggestions from poll 61 and whatever turns up after.

I also have a few Death and Disappearance stragglers I've been saving up after last year's incredibly successful reader suggested poll. Depending on my health and the robustness of suggestions, I may do a rare repeat.

Reminder of the Death and Disappearance Rules:

All entries must be pre-2000 to count. I already feel ghoulish enough doing the ones from my lifetime. I am not comfortable doing 20th century deaths.

The death, murder, or disappearance must be a bonefide mystery. (Identity of victim, identity of killer, means of death or disappearance, etc. are all reasonable categories. Medical mysteries are just fine) If it is solved as it reasonably can be like Diagalov Pass, Sommerton Man, etc. it in not eligible. I will use my judgement here. No fictional stuff, please.

I will not do JFK or RFK. I absolutely refuse. All suggestions on these will be ignored. I have my reasons.

If you are curious: Martha P. Johnson was understandably last Autumn's winner, so not eligible.

Starts Tomorrow!

Note about response delays

I got home just in time to catch COVID from my roommate. It's my first time and I'm not in great shape given my other health stuff.

I will do my best to answer people as best I can.

Yes, I'm resting and taking Paxlovid. The Millennials are supplying juice and soup.

Thank you all for the excellent suggestions. The ones I know we haven't done before will likely appear in future polls.

[introvertguide]

City Lights (1931); AFI #11

The following review is for my very favorite Charlie Chaplin film, City Lights (1931), yet I always feel like I am not the right audience to make a review. I cannot talk about the rave reviews because at the time because it did well but was not nominated for any awards. It was Chaplin’s last silent film and the world was generally enamored by “talkies” at this point. It is most definitely a favorite amongst critics and film polls today. Many of the greatest directors like Orson Welles and Stanley Kubrik have called it a masterpiece. But the story is 75% slapstick set pieces and a thin love story, so it is not a movie that I should like as much as I do. But I do. Let me go over the plot and then I can better explain myself:

SPOILER ALERT FOR A NINETY-YEAR-OLD MOVIE!!! i DON’T KNOW WHY I HAVE TO DO THIS FOR A FILM THAT CAN BE SEEN FOR FREE ON YOUTUBE, BUT PEOPLE LIKE TO COMPLAIN!!!

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The film starts with a little set piece in which a new statue is revealed in the city and the tramp is sleeping on it. He tries to blend in to the white marble statue but it obviously doesn’t work. He catches his trousers getting off the statue and eventually leaves. That is it for the scene.

This tramp then encounters a blind flower girl while she is selling flowers. A bunch of coincidental sounds make her think he is rich, since she can’t see his tramp attire, and he buys a flower for his lapel with what little money he has. Remember this girl, she is the best part of the film. 

The tramp keeps a drunken millionaire from committing suicide when he tries to jump off a bridge and this is turned into a series of pratfalls in which the two keep falling in the river and helping each other out. They go back to the rich man’s house and he gets the tramp drunk. They go out to for a night on the town and drunkenly cause problems in a set piece at a dance hall. 

In the morning, the millionaire does not remember the tramp and has him thrown out. The tramp takes the opportunity to quickly borrow the rich man’s car and buys all of the blind flower girl’s flowers and gives her a ride home. He returns the car and the rich man angrily takes it to go out and get drunk. Later that night, the drunk rich man invites the tramp to a lavish party but again throws him out in the morning. This becomes a Jekyll and Hyde situation with alcohol that repeats throughout the film.

The tramp goes to see the flower girl and she is not there. He goes to the house where he dropped her off and overhears that the girl is sick. He decides to get a job (a street sweeper) that has one of the few legitimately funny moments. The tramp is cleaning up horse poop (which is gross) and starts walking and sees a whole herd of donkeys being led threw town. He wants no part of that so he turns to go the other way and an elephant walks by. Not a bad joke. 

On his lunch break, the tramp brings the girl flowers and groceries while the grandma of the girl is out selling flowers so there is nobody to identify the tramp visually. This is important. One day it turns out that the girl has not paid rent and she will be evicted if she can’t come up with $22. I think I have more than that in my change jug, but that was a lot of money back then since the average yearly wage was about $1200. This was during the Depression and a couple hundred a year was good for a flower girl. Anyway, the tramp promises to pay off the debt the next day.

The tramp goes to work and is fired for being late again. He takes an opportunity to enter a boxing match in which he will fake the fight and split the $50 prize with the other contestant. Unfortunately, the man has to leave suddenly and another man is chosen who is actually a very good boxer and doesn’t want to split anything. The two dance around in another set piece (which is actually well choreographed) and the tramp loses. 

The tramp wanders that evening wondering what he will do when he runs into the drunken millionaire. The two go back to the mansion and he gives the tramp $1000 to help out. It turns out that some burglars broke in try to steal the money but are chased off by the tramp yelling for the police. The rich man is struck on the head in the ruckus and this sobers him up enough to not remember the money exchange and he wants the tramp gone. The police show up and the tramp has a bunch of cash so he is accused of being the burglar. The tramp manages to escape with the money, but the police are looking for him.

In the morning, the tramp gives the girl the money so she can pay the rent and get an operation for her eyes. He knows he can’t hide so he says goodbye and leaves. Honestly, if this film was made today, he would have been killed in a hail of gunfire. Luckily, this was Charlie Chaplin so the tramp was caught by police in a slapstick set piece. 

He is incarcerated for a couple of months and gets out to find things are a little different. The girl can see and had enough money left to buy her own flower shop. She sees the tramp outside staring at her and she proclaims “I’ve made a conquest!” She offers him a lapel flower and a coin out of kindness and grabs his had had to give it to him. She suddenly realizes from the feel of his arm and hand that this was the man who had helped her. The tramp is uncertain that she will like him and says “You can see now?” and she replies “Yes, I can see now.” The tramp’s face breaks into a smile and the film fades out. The end. 

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I have to say that I really don’t like anything that has to do with millionaire. I have seen this film about a dozen times and I always begin to wonder why I like it during the dinner scenes with the drunken millionaire and tramp. But then I see the tramp being kind to the blind flower girl. I laugh at the elephant and then feel impressed with the boxing much. A true twist with the jail time and then that moment of pure joy when the flower girl can finally see the man who changed her life and he smiles at her. This might be my favorite ending so far of the movies we have watched on the AFI list. 

The actress who played the blind girl was Virginia Cherrill and she was very convincing in her role. This had something to do with her not being legally blind but having poor eyesight to the point of barely functioning without corrective lenses. She could barely see anything and it really shows. There were times in which she put out her arm for guidance and she meant it. She could not climb stairs or walk along a sidewalk very well without some help.

I really had a hard to getting into this film when I was younger and didn’t make it all the way through until I was in my 20s. I am not a fan of slapstick and the start of this has so many set pieces. That 4 minute statue scene really doesn’t do this movie justice. My mom is one of the group that is watching these movies along with me (as supportive parents do) and she said that the ending is worth it. It is well worth dealing with a lot of drunken slapstick to see that smile at the end.

So should this movie be on the AFI list? Absolutely. And not for the Chaplin comedy that he is known for because it almost seems like he was phoning that part in. The comedy was far less creative (with the exception of the boxing) than his other films on this list, but that simple plot line with the blind flower girl is one of the mostly involving and satisfying that I know. Bravo movie and bravo Charlie Chaplin. Would I recommend it? Yes, just be patient with the film if you are not a fan of slapstick. A couple of the scenes between the introduction of the drunken millionaire and the house party are cringy and don’t hold up (for me at least) but the end is well worth it. Looking back at the beginning of this review, maybe I am perfect for this critique because even somebody like me who hates slapstick can love this film.

[spraxinoscope]

Oct. 14: Why I still think Trump has a ~75% chance of winning

Epistemic status: Who even am I? You shouldn’t listen to me. But see the final section for details.

By ‘winning,’ I mean still being president on 1/22/21, and there being no serious actionable plan to get him out.

2500 words of paranoia and bad math after the cut.

Polling factors:

Today, 538 gives Trump a 13% chance of an EC victory, so let’s use that as a starting point. As Nate Silver will tell you every chance he gets, 2016 presidential polls were only off by a few percentage points, and that’s probably still true. But a similar (or even smaller) systematic polling error would be enough to flip some battlegrounds, bumping Trump up to something like 25-30%. Have pollsters managed to correct for the systemic errors of 2016? There’s true meaningful debate around this, but the balance of evidence seems to be that the pollsters never figured out what caused the errors, and so were not able to fix them.

Note that Trump’s decline in the polls is driven by voters who approved of the president until very recently. Consider the sort of person who still had a favorable of opinion of Trump right up until fall 2020. Generally, dips in Trump’s favorability ratings seem to have been due to conservative infighting. Often, when a person stops supporting Trump, it’s because he is being insufficiently racist. These constituents’ loyalty may be wavering, but they are not likely to switch sides.

As a complete asspull hypothesis, I’d guess that some people who tell pollsters they no longer support Trump are trying to pressure him into adopting more hardline policy and will never vote for a Democrat.

I would posit that the 13% number is the absolute hard minimum chance of Trump winning an EC victory, fair and square. Error bars push that number higher. Taking average polling data over time also pushes that number higher, since it’s almost never been this low.

Dysfunction factors:

So, those are the odds for a free and fair election. What are the odds of the election being free and fair? I’m glad you asked! Zero. 

Election integrity has taken major hits recently. Citizens United turned elections into ad campaigns. Shelby County v. Holder made laws against discriminatory election practices unenforceable. The Hatch Act is also not being enforced. The numerous alleged campaign finance law violations brought against the 2016 Trump campaign all amounted to nothing (except jail time, and subsequent pardons, for some functionaries).

Fine, let’s say elections can never be perfectly fair, but even if we grade on a curve and request that elections be as fair as possible, we’re still not doing great, and it’s been getting worse since 2010.

Hey, remember all those jokes from like 2004 onwards about how unreliable and insecure electronic voting machines are? That shit never got fixed. Remember the story from this week about some 90,000 New Yorkers getting the wrong mail-in ballots?

Remember when the Russians got into the Illinois voter database in 2016? The institutions that were supposed to defend against that kind of thing have since been gutted or captured by republicans.

Hey, remember when the Iowa primary was so dysfunctional that they ended the vote count without ever producing a final tally or figuring out what the problems were?

Election integrity groups have been sounding the alarm continuously on this one. Electoral commissions and underfunded, understaffed, and undertrained in use of modern systems. This is a huge problem all by itself, and it gets worse when applied to the next issue.

Malfeasance factors:

In my American public school civics education, I learned that Richard Nixon was a crook who paid some burglars to spy on the democrats, because of how crooked he was. I did not learn that ratfucking is bog-standard procedure, in every election, all over the world. I had to learn that on my own, later. Generally speaking, the election integrity talking heads take the opinion that most countries routinely interfere in the elections of most countries, and the Ds and the Rs have never not been spying on each other. The extraordinary thing about Watergate was that Republican congressmen were weirdly amenable to allowing an investigation into one of their own, a mistake they have never since repeated.

Some amount of ratfucking is to be expected. The nation has weathered this factor before. But, like electoral competence, this may be getting worse over time. State governments have very wide purview when it comes to voting procedure, and Republican states are wasting no time in finding creative new ways to toss out ballots. The most common reason for a mail-in ballot to be rejected is that the signature on the envelope doesn’t match the voter’s signature on file. There is no official criteria or standard practice for how close a signature has to be to count as a match. Signatures are not useful security for anything, anyway.

Georgia’s 2018 election was arguably illegitimate. Irregularities included voting sites closed at the last minute for unclear reasons and fraudulent ballot collectors stealing ballots. Calls for recounts all failed. Other southern states are on thin ice. All the big Texan cities are getting one ballot drop box each, in case you thought Texas would be allowed to turn blue.

Red states already have various laws permitting them to throw out ballots that arrive after the election. Sabotaging the post office or throwing out all uncounted ballots soon after the election, as most sitting Republicans in congress and governors have already gone on record to suggest may be necessary, is a violation of the letter but not the spirit of existing restrictive voting laws.

The big thing, of course, is that the right wing media landscape has been fully saturated with the idea that Democrats will engage in conspiracies to steal the election, and action will need to be taken to thwart these plots. To that end, Republicans at all levels of government, including at the DOJ, have repeatedly signaled willingness to take unprecedented measures to stamp out fraud. These include numerous voter purge plans, new criteria for dismissing ballots, and sending the DHS or other law enforcement agencies to take custody of ballots.

In addition, the MAGAs are organizing ‘poll watcher’ groups to secure urban voting sites. Even if these groups fully obey the law and do not engage in anything that could legally be termed intimidation or harassment, that’s still a lot of leeway. Of course, over the last couple years, we’ve all learned that right wing protesters can sometimes bend or break the law and get away with it, and sometimes receive cooperation from the police. This goes triple for blue cities in red states, which is exactly what we’re worried about.

Malfeasance in general is made easier by the unprecedented levels of geographically-sorted voting blocs. It is trivially easy to tell whether a district will go hard for Trump or hard for Biden. So, whether interference is coming from law enforcement officers, protesters, or semi-sanctioned militias, they will know which lines to intimidate and which boxes to steal.

Russiagate set a clear precedent: It doesn’t matter if it’s blatant, outrageous, or corrupt. Republicans do not want to defect, and right wing media will keep the base in line. Democrats will be outraged, and then fold. There are no remaining nonpartisan referees to appeal to.

Pundits like to imagine that sitting Republicans in congress will not blatantly steal an election for fear that it will lead to them getting voted out of office, to which I would suggest that the obvious answer is the correct one: Voted out how?

Democrats shooting themselves in the goddamn foot factors:

Trump likes to say that the election will be illegitimate if he loses. Mainstream news outlets like to push back against this. The NYT, for instance, has been loudly insistent that the election is totally secure all year.

It’s not, and they’re morons. No experts agree with them on this. Trump fabricating a bunch of fictional threats does not invalidate the numerous actual threats.

Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer would not be anyone’s first pick for the task of contesting an election, but that’s who we got.

Possible October surprises:

Hey, what do you guys think this year’s James Comey is going to be? The only real prediction I have is that something very destabilizing happens in the week before the election, but the particulars could be anything. Some fun possibilities:

DNC hacked again

Federally sanctioned repeat of the 1985 MOVE bombing

Hunter Biden cocaine sex tape

Anything that startles people, destabilizes institutions, and distracts from other issues is a viable possibility.

Scenarios after a contested election:

There are plenty of bluechecks and think tanks who have already gamed this out in detail. You don’t have to take my word for any of this part. The choices are:

There are rival sets of state electors, and Congress decides which ones count. Result: McConnell and Barr play Calvinball until they get the outcome they like, Trump remains in office.

The supreme court decides. Result: Trump remains in office.

The militias decide. Result: Trump remains in office, plus the Handmaid’s Tale happens.

There’s an orange revolution. After months of protracted struggle, Trump is ousted from office. However, in the meantime, ~8 states have seceded and Russia has annexed Alaska. In the ensuing chaos, John McAfee claims the presidency.

Probability estimates:

Trump’s odds of a ‘legitimate’ EC victory are only at 13% as of this moment, but the running average is higher, with occasional spikes above 30%. Polling errors add a little extra. Let’s say 25%.

Trump’s odds of losing the EC vote, but clawing it back through malfeasance until enough Republicans agree that he’s won, are very low in the case of a Biden landslide. But a landslide is unlikely, and as the results are closer, the probability of Republicans declaring themselves winners approach one. Note that, at least from mainstream news coverage, this won’t look like the power grab that many democrats fear. It will look like a lot of confusion and disarray, with an unclear EC count, followed by a cascade of authorities and sources declaring Trump the winner and securing the acceptance from government bodies one at a time. For the most likely election outcomes in which Trump doesn’t win straight up, I’d say a 30% chance Trump remains in office.

The election being a total dysfunctional disaster, with multiple states unable to certify results, is at least 5%. At least! In such a case, I’d give Trump an 80% chance of remaining in office.

In general, I believe that the only way that Biden gets to be president is if everything basically holds together and works like it’s supposed to, and also Trump legitimately loses the EC. There is one way for everything to go right. There are many ways it can go wrong.

The NYT has fixated on the possibility that Trump clearly loses, but refuses to leave office anyway. I’d give this no more than a 1% chance of happening. But I think there’s a major blind spot around the possibility that we have no idea who won, because the whole thing is obfuscated by multiple layers of confusion and malfeasance. What tools to democrats have for investigating malfeasance? What tools do they have for persuading people that they won when the results are in question? What tools to they have for enforcing election laws that they didn’t have in 2017?

I think they have approximately one asset, and it’s a populace that’s willing to rise up in defense of their rights. But the DNC spent the last five-ish years antagonizing and alienating anyone left of Dianne Feinstein, so, the efficacy of a potential national mobilization has been severely compromised.

Any protracted contested election scenario either favors Trump remaining in power, or the eventual balkanization of the US. One reason there are no good scenarios for a contested election is that mainstream media has been so adamant that the election is secure. When the Democrats are trying to contest results, they will be struggling against their own narrative.

Then, I add a 10% chance that a last minute October surprise tips the race to Trump. It happened last time, and Comey wasn’t even trying; now that every government office is staffed with Trump appointees who are trying, they have a decent shot at this.

Summing up these odds, I arrive at Trump having around a 70% chance.

Then, I add another 5%, because I bet there’s things I haven’t thought of, and every year there’s some small chance that the far right will go all in on a race war, and this would be a good opportunity for them.

I will take actual bets on these odds.

My biases:

Numerous.

I grew up in a red community in a red state and was bullied a lot by kids who grew up to be far-right; I have a chip on my shoulder about this that precludes dispassionate analysis.

I believe the RNC has looked at US demographic trends and likely consequences of climate change, and has accepted a certain amount of fascistic will to power as a necessary evil. This is mere supposition on my part.

Despite the fact that I am more or less an asshole stoner burnout weeb, I remain convinced that the editorial staff at the NYT and several other major American journalistic institutions are somehow even dumber than I am. Although this may sound unlikely, this assumption has been invaluable for making predictions about the world.

I am a paranoid person.

My motivations for writing this:

Believe it or not, I’m only doing this to assuage anxiety. I’ve been convinced that Trump’s odds for remaining in office have been significantly higher than polls would suggest since 2018, and it’s maddening to see so few other people agree even though my core assumptions keep not going away.

If anyone read this far: I’m sorry, and I hope this motivates you to vote, if you weren’t going to already. If Trump remains in office, protests against him will benefit from having the mandate of a clear popular vote win, even if not an EC win, so I do believe that even people outside battleground states should vote.

I don’t know about Tumblr, but on Twitter, ‘no-hopers’ are characterized (fairly or not) as being defeatist Bernie bros who think that Trump should win the election to teach the DNC a lesson. I disavow this idea in the strongest possible terms. I think Biden can win and urgently should win. But every time I see someone talking about the Biden presidency as if it were a sure thing, it takes another year off my lifespan.

No matter what happens, we will be fighting racism and corruption for the rest of our lives, because that’s what ethical behavior entails in this world. But a Biden term vs. a second Trump term are in no way equivalent, and things can still get worse.

In conclusion, [that picture of the guy at the folding table with the ‘prove me wrong’ sign]

[thecollegefootballguy]

The Top 25 Teams of the Decade: #7 LSU

Hello everybody, we’re celebrating the arrival of the 2020′s by looking at the 25 best programs of the previous decade.

We’re on to the top ten to celebrate the #7 team from the 2010′s:

Louisiana State University Tigers

Record: 103-28 (.786) Division Titles: 2 Conference Titles: 2 Bowl Seasons: 10 Major Bowls: 3 Playoff/BCS Berths: 2 Final Top 25 Finishes: 9 Final Top 10 Finishes: 4 Final Top 5 Finishes: 2 National Championships: 1 Best Season: 2019

The present champions clock in just outside of the Decade’s Top 5. LSU was consistently good in the 2010′s, and occasionally the best team in the sport. LSU began the decade as one of the biggest names in college football. The Tigers had won two national championships in the 2000′s (’03 and ‘07) under two different coaches. Les Miles was well established as one of the preeminent head men in the game, though Nick Saban, Miles’ direct predecessor in Baton Rouge, was already threatening that supremacy by winning the national title in 2009 for Alabama.

LSU began the decade strong. The Tigers didn’t blow anybody away to begin the 2010 season, but they won. #21 Louisiana State beat #18 North Carolina in Atlanta 30-24 to begin September and capped the month off with a 20-14 win over eventual Big East co-champion #22 West Virginia. LSU was now flirting with the top ten, but the Tigers kept getting caught up in close games. Louisiana State had a couple one score games with Tennessee and #12 Florida, but stayed unbeaten until the end of October when they went face to face with fellow unbeaten #4 Auburn. #6 LSU fell at Jordan-Hare 17-24, briefly tumbling out of the Top Ten. Two weeks later, the Tigers knocked off #5 Alabama 24-21 to leap back in to the top ten. The win over the Crimson Tide put Louisiana State comfortably in second place in the division standings, and if Auburn ended up winning out and going to the BCS Championship, then LSU would get the SEC’s bid to the Sugar Bowl. It didn’t happen. The #6 Tigers lost to #12 Arkansas in Little Rock 23-31. The 10-2 Razorbacks then took the spot in the Sugar Bowl, where they lost to Ohio State. Louisiana State was relegated to the Cotton Bowl, where they beat #18 Texas A&M 41-24. LSU finished 8th in the AP Poll, the 2nd highest SEC team after national champion Auburn.

2011 was different. The Tigers began the year ranked 4th in the nation, and ended up being better than that. #4 Louisiana State outpaced #3 Oregon 40-27 in Arlington. It was a great start to the year which also saw LSU beat #25 Mississippi State and #16 West Virginia before the month was out. The offense was exploding and the defense was even better, only allowing more than 11 points three times before the BCS Title Game (spoilers (lol)). Needless to say, they were up to #1 at this point. The Tigers absolutely mauled #17 Florida and #19 Auburn in October before their fateful date with fellow unbeaten Alabama. In the most recent regular season #1 vs #2 matchup, Louisiana State was able to edge out Bama 9-6 in overtime in Tuscaloosa which opened the door to a 12-0 regular season. LSU destroyed #3 Arkansas 41-17 to seal the undefeated record. In the SEC Championship Game, the Tigers shut down #12 Georgia 42-10 and were on their way to the national championship game. With no other undefeated teams left from the BCS conferences, Bama ended up as the #2 pick in the rankings. The rematch, a first in the Title Game, didn’t go Louisiana State’s way. This time, the offense was completely shut down by the Crimson Tide. LSU lost 21-0 in a near unwatchable shutout. It was a horrific, embarrassing way to end what was shaping up to be one of the easiest open and shut, national championship, undefeated seasons of the BCS era. In a way, LSU never recovered under Les Miles.

Football teams rarely ever go 13-0 in two consecutive seasons, the Tigers were no different. Louisiana State started the year ranked 3rd in the AP poll, and fully were expected to contend again. After beating a bunch of nobodies and the worst Auburn team in a generation, LSU fell to #10 Florida, severely wounding the Tigers’ chances to repeat as SEC champions. #9 Louisiana State rebounded by beating #3 South Carolina and then turned around the next week and were the last team to beat then-#20 Texas A&M, who by the end of the season were perhaps the hottest squad in college football. LSU climbed back to #5 in November, and could have taken control of the SEC West with a win over #1 Alabama. In a hard fought contest, the Tigers lost 17-21 to officially fall out of the race. Louisiana State did win out over rivals #22 Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Arkansas to finish 10-2. #9 LSU faced off against #15 Clemson in the Peach Bowl and lost 24-25 in a close bout. 10-3 with a final #14 ranking isn’t a bad follow up to a near championship season, but it was still disappointing especially with Alabama romping over Notre Dame to win their second consecutive title.

2013 was a pretty similar result. The Tigers started strong with a win over #20 TCU 37-27 in Arlington and then pretty easily beat eventual SEC Champion Auburn 35-21 back before anybody thought they were good. However, #6 Louisiana State fell to #9 Georgia 41-44 before the month of September was out. LSU climbed back to 6th in the polls with a 17-6 win over #17 Florida, but were then upset by rival Ole Miss to officially end their championship aspirations. A listless, 17-38 loss to #1 Alabama delivered the Tigers their third loss. Louisiana State rebounded with a commanding 34-10 win over #9 Texas A&M to recoup some of their prestige. A win over Iowa in the Outback Bowl delivered LSU their second consecutive 10-3 record and #14 final ranking in the AP Poll. 

The Tigers really began to disappoint in 2014. It would end up being Les Miles’ worst or second worst season in Baton Rouge depending on who you ask. Louisiana State was expected to be their usual competent selves, beginning the year ranked 13th. A win over #14 Wisconsin in Houston kicked things off well, but they lost their first SEC game to Mississippi State 29-34. Two weeks later, #15 LSU was completely demolished 7-41 by #5 Auburn. It was their worst loss in years. This horrible pants-ing in the Tiger Bowl knocked the Bayou Bengals out of the AP poll for the first time since 2008. The indignities didn’t stop there. The Tigers beat #3 Ole Miss 10-7 in the Magnolia Bowl to push their way back into the spotlight, but then suffered back to back losses to #4 Alabama and unranked Arkansas to fall back out of the rankings. It was an even worse gut punch that they took the Crimson Tide to overtime before losing 13-20. 8-4 Louisiana State might have been the best 8-4 team in the nation, but it didn’t help them against 7-5 Notre Dame. The Irish beat LSU 31-28 in the Music City Bowl, putting Les Miles on the hot seat heading into 2015.

The revenge tour started pretty well. The Tigers began the season with wins over #25 Mississippi State and #18 Auburn. In October, Louisiana State beat #8 Florida 35-28. LSU was undefeated through two months 7-0 and climbed up to 4th in the rankings, but you know how this went. The Tigers suffered a trio of successive losses to #7 Alabama, Arkansas, and #25 Ole Miss, which dropped them all the way out of the rankings. Wins over Texas A&M and Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl propped Louisiana State back to 9-3, but the embarrassing way that the team fell from Playoff participant to unranked was a real stain that still threatened Miles’ job.

2016 was the breaking point. LSU began the season ranked 5th in the AP Poll, expectations were high. The Tigers immediately lost 14-16 to unranked Wisconsin in Green Bay and at the end of September they lost to unranked Auburn. That was it for Miles. The head coach who had guided Louisiana State to their third ever national championship in 2007 and would have won another title in 2011 if not for the extreme circumstance that pitted them against Alabama in a repeat matchup. Defensive line coach Ed Orgeron was promoted for the interim. LSU was able to hold serve through October with a 38-21 win over #22 Ole Miss before losing to #1 Alabama as expected. The Florida game was postponed to the end of the year due to Hurricane Matthew. A 10-16 loss to the #21 Florida was a black eye which threw Orgeron’s ability to retain the job in doubt. The Tigers rebounded with a 54-39 win over #22 Texas A&M to end the year which, with intensive lobbying from the players, helped Orgeron keep the gig as the full time head coach. Good move.

Louisiana State in 2017 looked pretty much the same under Orgeron as they did under Miles in 2015. Well, not quite. Miles never lost to Troy. Miles did lose to Mississippi State. Once. Through 12 years in Baton Rouge. Orgeron’s Tigers lost to both in September. It wasn’t a hot start to his first year as the official head coach. LSU rebounded with back to back wins over #21 Florida and #10 Auburn. Of course, they lost to Alabama because that’s what happened through most of the 2010′s. #16 LSU lost 17-21 to #14 Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl. A #18 final ranking and a 9-4 record is what eventually tanked Miles. It was a black cloud hanging over Orgeron.

Things started to trend back up in 2018. #25 LSU opened the year with an easy win over #8 Miami. By the end of September, the Tigers also scraped past #7 Auburn. #5 Louisiana State suffered their first loss to #22 Florida, but the Gators turned out to be better than anticipated that year. LSU rebounded with a commanding 36-16 win over #2 Georgia. The Tigers then shut down #22 Mississippi State 19-3 to climb all the way to 3rd in the rankings. But, yet again, in came #1 Alabama to ruin the Bayou Bengals’ season. The Crimson Tide blanked LSU 29-0, the Tigers’ worst loss to Bama since 2002. Louisiana State did rebound, and finished the year on a three game win streak, capped off with an epic 7 overtime win over #22 Texas A&M. LSU was selected by the Playoff committee to play against #7 UCF in the Fiesta Bowl. The Golden Knights were undefeated in the past two seasons and would have a very real claim to a second straight national title with a win in Phoenix. The #11 Tigers won 40-32 and ended the year in the top ten for the first time since 2011.

Everything came together in 2019. LSU’s offense bloomed in a way never seen in all of college football before Joe Burrow took the field in Baton Rouge. The Tigers passed their first test in Austin when they scraped past the #9 Longhorns 45-38. Louisiana State climbed up to 6-0, scoring 42 or more points every game. The meat of the SEC schedule proved a stiff challenge, but LSU was up to the task. The #2 Tigers beat #7 Florida 42-28 and managed to put away #9 Auburn 23-20. After a bye, Louisiana State faced off against #3 Alabama, the team that had tormented LSU every time since that 2012 BCS Championship Game. The Tigers outpaced the Tide 46-41. Louisiana State was 9-0 and the path was wide open for their first West Division title since 2011. Undefeated LSU was pitted against #4 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. The Tigers easily handled the Bulldogs 37-10 to cement their place in the Playoff. As the #1 seed, Louisiana State hosted #4 Oklahoma in the Peach Bowl. LSU dismantled the Sooners 63-28 in one of the most lopsided semifinal games in the short history of the Playoff. In the National Championship Game, the Tigers faced off against Clemson. Those other Tigers from South Carolina were the scourge of Alabama, and kept the Tide and the SEC as a whole from utterly dominating the 2010′s unlike anything ever seen in college football. It wasn’t a very interesting game. Louisiana State was measurably better in every way and LSU cruised to a 42-25 win to finally earn their elusive national championship this decade in the last possible year.

I think some people will take issue with me placing the Tigers so far down the list. After all, only 7 or 8 teams actually won national championships and only a few played for it twice in the 2010′s. But, as has been painfully aware to Louisiana State fans from 2012 to 2018, LSU didn’t win anything special for most of the decade. All of the teams above the Tigers on the list have won their division more than twice as many times as LSU in the same span. All but two more than double Louisiana State’s conference champions. LSU was a good team in the 2010′s, they were great for most of the decade in fact. They just weren’t among the best outside of 2011 and 2019. Only winning 2 division titles in 10 years won’t put you in the top 5.

I’m optimistic for Louisiana State in the 2020′s. They seem to have a great foundation upon which to build yet higher plateaus. As for the rivalry tally I’ve been keeping...

Louisiana State absolutely dominated most of their rivals: 7-3 against Arkansas, Auburn, AND Florida, 8-2 against Ole Miss and Mississippi State. But, the most important rivalry would end up mostly frustrating the Tigers. LSU went 3-8 against Alabama in the 2010′s, which kept them from being higher (likely much higher) on this list.

[eightyonekilograms]

Alright, a couple last responses and then I’ll calm down and go to bed.

@firebendinglemur​: Scenarios 1 and 3 rely on top Democratic power holders being desperate and furious, with little to lose, and Scenario 2 makes the same assumption about Republicans.  Neither of these are even remotely true about top party leadership; the loser's share of the pork barrel is still enough to keep them all fat and happy, they'd be insane to fight a shooting war over it.

The party leaders are dead. Their power is broken.

Do you remember what everyone’s attitude was like around, say, August of 2015? When Trump had a significant but not overwhelming lead over the rest of the crowded Republican primary field? My memory of that moment was that one or two wonks were screaming about the danger ahead, but everyone else, including most Republicans, was completely sanguine about it. Everyone was just taking it for granted that Trump would flame out in a couple more weeks and we’d get on with the real primary.

Part of this was probably an assumption that the 2016 primary would work the same way as 2012 did: with a repeated cycle of some Republican clown suddenly shooting to the top of the polls, staying there for a few weeks until he embarrassed himself, and then vanishing behind Romney again. 

But I think a big part of it was that everyone (including Republican elites!) was just assuming, “The top party leadership will take care of this. There’ll be some conversation in the ‘smoke-filled room’ that will get rid of Trump, and let someone sensible take over.”

And we were all wrong, because none of us realized there was no party leadership at the GOP. The smoke-filled room was empty. Oh, it still nominally existed, there was/is still an RNC and a GOP organization headed by Rince Peebar or whoever, but it had no power to contradict voters anymore. The whole thing was like a standing house but where the logs underneath had completely rotted away, and came it crashing down the moment Trump kicked them.

This happened for a bunch of reasons: social media, the decline of gatekeeping mass media outlets, universally increasing distrust at “the elites” etc., but the point is that it happened so gradually we never even noticed.

The process took a little longer with the Democrats, but Hillary’s loss combined with the (real or perceived) knife-in-the-back treatment of Bernie basically extinguished all confidence in the Democratic party machinery. Now Democratic voters run the show, over any and all objections. Just look at the last few years: everyone at the DNC hated AOC but that didn’t matter one bit, Pelosi didn’t want to impeach but was driven inexorably by the will of Democratic voters, Biden was The Anointed but can’t get a large fraction behind him, etc.

My point with all this is that the Democratic and Republican parties-- by which I don’t mean the collective will of their voters, as we increasingly use those terms; I mean the actual party institutions-- are, for all practical purposes, dead. Maybe future events will bring them back in some form, but right now they’re dead. What the party leaders want is irrelevant. If voters want a violent reaction to the events of the 2020 election, they will eventually get it, because in 2020 noncompliant legislators are hastily primaried out of existence until people get what they want.

I mean, think about what you’re saying: “the loser’s share of the pork barrel is still fat enough to keep them happy”. Dude, just imagine what people’s reaction to that would be. Imagine Trump stealing the 2020 election, Democratic voters demanding an extraconstitutional response because they have nothing to lose, and the Democratic party leaders going “nah, our share is big enough that we should go along with it”. C’mon, you know what would happen: they’d be run out of town with torches and pitchforks, and their replacements would take up the fight voters wanted.

We killed the party machinery. Whether that will turn out to be good or bad in the long run, I don’t know, we don’t have enough historical perspective yet, but we did. The kinds of quid pro quo arrangements you’re talking about are a thing of the past.

@youzicha: I guess there is still a lot of space between "the president is decided by who is supported by the military" and a civil war. C.f. the 1993 Russian constitutional crisis: it was resolved by having some tanks shell the parliament, but it didn't lead to a war.

I’m not an expert on Russian history, so please correct me if I’m wrong, but my sense is that most ordinary Russians weren’t particularly invested in either side of the 1993 crisis, and considered it a power struggle between two different sets of elites. It seems to me like 1993 didn’t become a war when Rutskoy’s side correctly perceived that Russians just didn’t care.

That’s a very different situation from what we have now, where a large fraction of the voting population considers the other side (of the populace, not merely its leaders) both an existential threat and scheming to steal power by whatever means necessary. This is much more volatile than an apathetic populace disinterestedly watching a squabble over the throne.

---

Look, a bunch of you are saying I’m wrong and that actual war is unlikely, and you’re all making some good points. All I’m saying is that a significant portion of this confidence seems to be simply coming from a belief that It Can’t Happen Here, and I’m incredulous that people are still placing faith in that in 2019. Trump himself Couldn’t Happen Here, until he did.

[wandererslullabi]

SGA/SSA aren’t LGBT+ terms you should be using

In fact, they’re not even really terms from our community at all.

In this post I’m going to be talking about two terms sometimes used by some people in our community: SSA (same sex attracted) and SGA (same gender attracted). Note, however, that this post is NOT about SGL (same gender loving) which is a completely unrelated, lovely term created for and by black LGBT+ people. To clear things up, the SGA term is not based on the SGL term; SGA was already an entirely separate term based in violent homophobia, which I’ll speak on below.

So, what’s wrong with SGA and SSA, and why do I have the right to speak about it?

I was born and raised a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, a church that until recently also went by the nickname “Mormons.” (Yeah, I know it’s a mouthful. Don’t worry, I’ll be using LDS, Mormon, or The Church for the rest of this post.)

This church has a very long, horrible history of homophobia and transphobia which continues to this day, and they’re known for using the SGA/SSA terms to describe LGB+ people, to the extent that the SSA and SGA terms are considered fairly taboo in the queerstake community (queerstake  being what much of lds LGBT+ call ourselves). I grew up hearing the SSA/SGA terms with lot of negative connotation, and to put it shortly, the church has for a long time “encouraged” lds LGBT+ people to call themselves “same sex/gender attracted” instead of LGBT+.

This statement, by the church leader Dallin H. Oaks (more on him here in a post by a gay mormon) is a pretty good example of the kind of rhetoric they use to encourage this: “We should note that the words homosexual, lesbian, and gay are adjectives to describe particular thoughts, feelings, or behaviors. We should refrain from using these words as nouns to identify particular conditions or specific persons.” (x)

This kind of rhetoric is repeated so often in the church that “same sex/gender attracted” is the way a majority of cis straight lds people refer to LGBT+ people aside from negatively using the word “gay” or “homosexual.”  They often use it talking about how we “suffer” from SSA/SGA, are “afflicted” with SSA/SGA, “struggle” with SSA/SGA. Instead of being gay, we “have” SSA/SGA.

It’s used as a way to essentially brainwash LGBT+ lds people into distancing ourselves from the LGBT+ community and further envelop ourselves in the church’s “you should repent from your homosexual behavior” mentality. The two terms are used fairly interchangeably; I’d argue SSA is used more often, but SGA is starting to get used more as well. In any case, it contributed to my younger self’s phase of “I won’t label my orientation” because I’d been trained to think that if I didn’t label it and I kept doing what the church said, my attraction to girls would either go away or I could just ignore it. Which, uh, didn’t really work, seeing as I’m extremely queer now.

A church university called BYU has, in particular, been homophobic to an extreme, actively participating in anti-LGBT+ efforts. In fact, they’ve been ranked one of the least LGBT friendly universities in the entire US! What an incredible achievement! You can read the history of their homophobia (and some transphobia) in this article (including a fairly extensive timeline from the 1950s up to the end of 2018). To sum up some of the really bad parts, though (the sources are in the link):

They repeatedly banned LGBT+ people from their university entirely, then banned students from being openly LGBT+, and are suspected of firing several staff members for being gay, as well as for suspending and expelling students for dating or kissing people of the same gender

In the 60s through 70s, they began administering “electric aversion therapy” in order to “cure” LGB+ students (this “therapy” involved showing gay people nude pictures of the same gender and giving them electroshocks in order to make them associate those feelings negatively). This method was ineffective at making the LGB+ people straight (obviously), but the people who underwent it reported extreme decrease in mental health and increased suicidal thoughts. At one point this therapy was required for anyone suspected of being gay. The therapy ended in 1983, but only because of the overwhelming reports that it wasn’t working.

In 1965 there were 5 reported suicides of gay Mormons at the university in a single year, and the LGBT+ Mormon suicidality in Utah has continued to be high. 

In the 70s, when Dallin H. Oaks was president of the school, he created a surveillance system to “catch” LGB+ people, including literally spying on gay bars and implementing recording devices to watch for any suspected LGB+ students, as well as posting fake gay advertisements to “ensnare” them.

Dallin Oaks also helped create the Institute for Studies in Values and Human Behavior, which was dedicated to proving that being gay was a choice, in order to re-affirm the church’s stance on homosexuality at the time. The freaking director of the institution, Allen Bergin, once said that homosexuality was “caused by some combination of biology and environment.” (thankfully, the church no longer believes being gay is a choice, though they talk about how “SSA/SGA behavior” is a choice as often as they can.)

I suggest y’all also read the Payne Papers (aka Prologue), which was written by two gay BYU students in 1977 in response to a homophobic professor at the university.

In 1997 there was a poll where 80% of students said they wouldn’t live with a roommate attracted to people of the same gender.

“In 2000 a reported 13 students were suspended from the University when caught watching the TV series Queer As Folk. The next year two gay students (Matthew Grierson and Ricky Escoto) were expelled under accusations deemed ‘more probable than not’ of hand-holding or kissing.”

In 2005, The Foundation for Attraction Research (FAR) was founded, run by mostly BYU professors. In 2009 the organization published Understanding Same-Sex Attraction which advocated therapy to change sexual attraction (evidently they didn’t learn their lesson lol).

In 2014, a BYU survey to students only gave the option of “heterosexual but struggles with same-sex attraction" or "heterosexual and does not struggle with same-sex attraction” for people’s sexual orientation. Y’all, this was only a year before same-gender marriage was legalized in the US. That’s just bad.

LGBT+ students are currently still facing risk of expulsion from the school if they hug, kiss, or date someone of their same gender. Celibacy is mandatory.

All LGBT+ groups are currently banned from meeting on campus, so there’s only a single LGBT+ group for the school that meets at a library in the city.

And of course, this is only what happened at a single Mormon university. You’d be surprised how much power the LDS church has, especially in Utah. Ya know Dallin H. Oaks, the homophobe? Yeah, last October he gave a homophobic and transphobic talk in front of over 4 million church members from all over the world.

During the course of all that homophobia at BYU, “same sex attraction” and “same gender attraction” were both terms used regularly in this therapy and in the church, alongside “homosexual.” And as I said earlier, they still use these terms today! In fact, if you wanna see them in action, you can just visit this page on their official website, which has “same sex attraction” right there in the title. The entire website continues to follow the implied idea of “we’ll tolerate you saying you’re gay, lesbian, or bisexual, but we’d prefer if you’d just say you’re same sex/gender attracted, because being gay/bi/lesbian is a lifestyle, and we don’t support it” and the whole website is basically “it’s okay to be attracted to the same gender, but it’s a sin to ever do or think anything gay!”

You can also just search the internet for “same sex attraction” or “same gender attraction” and a bunch of christian articles will pop up with rampant internalized homophobia among LGBT+ church members, and a bunch of homophobia from the church itself. It’s possible this SSA/SGA rhetoric isn’t specific to my church, as I haven’t researched other church’s histories as thoroughly, but the church absolutely contributed to anti-LGBT+ efforts throughout history, using “SGA” and “SSA” the entire time. This isn’t even a thing of the past, LGBT+ Mormons are still freaking here going through all this--conversion therapy is still not banned in Utah.

So, TL;DR: the “same sex/gender attraction” phrase was used in LGB+ conversion therapy, and is still used to perpetuate homophobic rhetoric in the church today. Because of that, a lot of my fellow LGBT+ Mormons are uncomfortable with the terms being used as umbrella descriptors for our orientations. So when someone tells you “SSA/SGA was used in Mormon conversion therapy, please don’t use it,” take them seriously. Yes, I understand that they’re sometimes helpful terms when talking about LGB+ identities, and I’m (sometimes) more okay with the usage of the terms than others, but in general, if you’re not a person affected directly by the church’s usage of these terms (read: an active LGBT+ Mormon or ex-Mormon), please don’t use them liberally, and don’t use them to freaking discourse about who does or doesn’t belong in the community. “SSA/SGA and trans” is not how you should be defining our community, I don’t care whether you’re an exclusionist or an inclusionist, just don’t. And you should never. freaking. use them. to refer to any LGBT+ Mormon who asks you not to.

And, last of all, as a bi person, y’all should not be implying that attraction to the same gender is the only thing about our orientation that makes us LGBT+. I’m not just LGBT+ because I’m attracted to the same gender, I’m LGBT+ because I’m attracted to multiple genders. My attraction to multiple genders makes me inherently Not Straight. Biphobia and monosexism is an issue that greatly affects mspec people, and it’s time monosexual LGBT+ people recognize that homophobia is not the only type of oppression we face. Not even to mention how SGA and SSA terms are exclusive of nonbinary orientations, which don’t always involve even having a same gender to be attracted to.

Exclusionists and inclusionists alike please reblog. Y’all need to listen up. Queer Mormons aren’t here to play.

[uk-news-talking-politics]

The road to independence: How Covid and Brexit pushed Scotland from the Union

By Chaminda Jayanetti

At least they've noticed. Boris Johnson's flying visit to Scotland late last month wasn't much of a response to rising support for Scottish independence - but it was, at least, a response.

Johnson's desperation not to be the prime minister who 'lost the union' might be the only thing motivating him to try and hold it together, given that, like David Cameron, he instinctively sucks at electoral teat of English nationalism, casually alienating Scottish voters with the insouciance of a man for whom everything in his life has been cleaned up after him.

The recent turn in the polls towards independence is much more dangerous for unionists than the Yes campaign surge in 2014. During the referendum campaign, the surge in support for independence came from undecided voters rather than supporters of the union. But 2019 and 2020 have seen a much more direct shift of opinion from No to Yes.

The shift has had two big drivers - the first of which is Brexit.

"If you go back to the 2014 referendum, there was no relationship at that referendum between people's attitudes towards Europe, and whether or not they voted Yes or No," says polling expert John Curtice.

The Brexit vote then sparked a movement of pro-union Remain voters towards Yes, but one that was balanced out by pro-independence Leave voters shifting towards No - initially at least.

"Last year it became clear that the group of people who were moving from No to Yes because they voted Remain was now larger than the group moving in the other direction," says Curtice. "So by the end of 2019 and by the time Boris Johnson gets his majority, it's very clear that the pursuit of Brexit is beginning to undermine support for the Union, such that we were getting close to but were not quite at the 50-50 mark."

And then came the coronavirus.

"When the pandemic started, I briefly thought 'well, this could be curtains [for independence], at least for a good few years'," says James Kelly of pro-independence website Scot Goes Pop! "The fact that it's gone completely the other way demonstrates how catastrophic Westminster's handling of the crisis has been."

Critics of the SNP argue the Scottish government has overstated the extent to which it has deviated from the decision-making at Westminster in handling the pandemic, and Scotland has endured many of the same problems as the rest of the UK, most notably with outbreaks in care homes.

"It is really interesting that at a point where two governments are following a similar path in policy terms to a crisis, they are getting very different responses from the public for what is essentially a very similar response," says Edinburgh-based political consultant Mark Diffley.

First minister Nicola Sturgeon has enjoyed sky-high popularity in Scotland during the pandemic - the complete reverse of Johnson's subterranean personal ratings. And this support is not limited to SNP voters.

"The really striking thing was that the cohort of 2014 No voters, which of course would include lots of Leave voters as well, rate the first minister's handling of the crisis more positively than the prime minister's handling," says Diffley.

"Which is quite something when you sit and think about it - a Conservative prime minister against an SNP first minister coming off worse amongst unionists."

While survey data has long shown Scottish voters have more trust in the devolved government than in Westminster, Sturgeon's style - and her visibility fronting most of the ongoing daily press conferences - contrasts with that of the prime minister.

"There's been a sense in which basically she's just levelled with people," says Curtice, "and she's kind of said, 'this is difficult, I'm probably going to worry about some of these decisions I've made for the rest of my life'. There is no promise of 'sunny uplands'."

Her focus on enabling people to reunite with loved ones when easing lockdown, in contrast to Johnson's focus on reopening the economy, also gives her leadership a more empathetic tone than the prime minister's, while steering away from the tub-thumping partisanship of the Tory leader.

"It's certainly possible to construct a case that would argue that perhaps Nicola Sturgeon has got the tone correct and given the impression that she knows what she's doing," says Curtice.

By contrast, Johnson is a "liability" for the unionist cause, says Kelly.

Scotland is now pursuing a 'zero Covid' strategy, with no deaths from one day to the next, whereas the Tories appear ready to tolerate an ongoing level of communal infection as they try and reopen the economy.

"The feeling is that things were going badly when Scotland was following Westminster's lead, and then improved markedly when Nicola Sturgeon went her own way," says Kelly. "It's not that what happened in care homes is directly Westminster's fault, but Scotland at that point had locked itself into a Westminster-led 'four nations' strategy that was hopelessly misconceived."

Diffley points to a basic communications problem for the UK government: "Stuff that goes wrong - UK's fault. Stuff that goes right - plaudits to the Scottish government."

All this feeds through to the independence debate. Just as Brexit proved that Scotland's wishes could be overruled by the UK government, many Scots increasingly feel the pandemic shows they are better off governing themselves.

But with rising support for independence among Leave voters since the pandemic started, does that make an explicitly pro-EU Yes campaign risky in a second referendum?

"Insofar as Brexit becomes an essential part of the story, Yes support will fall further among Leave voters," says Curtice. "But it doesn't have to gain at the same rate amongst Remain voters in order to for it to match its losses."

Instead, the big challenge Brexit poses to the Yes campaign is the wearily familiar issue of the border. If Yes promises to pave the way for Scotland to rejoin the EU, we could see a repeat of the wrangling over the Northern Irish border after the 2016 Brexit vote - although that would also leave the UK government adopting the very same logic to argue against independence that it previously rejected in arguing for a hard Brexit.

The independence debate still has years left to run. But Kelly is confident that Brexit and the pandemic mean that voters will no longer see the union as the safe option.

"My guess is the pandemic may have shifted opinion to the point where that's less likely to happen.  There's a feeling now that we're being run by a bunch of clowns in London, and that things won't get any better, and will probably keep getting worse, unless we do something about that."

[makeste]

BnHA Smash!! 01 and 02: Smash!!Might is a Fucking Menace

okay, so. I have about a million other things I should be doing instead, including (1) responding to asks and/or finishing in-progress metas, (2) reading Vigilantes, and last but not least, (3) actually making a dent in the ever-increasing backlog of Actual Work That I Really Should Be Doing Instead.

so naturally I’m procrastinating by taking my first stab at reading BnHA’s cute 4-panel omake spinoff series, BnHA Smash!! IT JUST MAKES SENSE. look, I have exactly one thing I felt like actually doing and not procrastinating today, so I might as well do the thing. basically it’s my attention span’s world and I’m just living in it.

anyway! so apparently this series was scanlated by good ol’ Fallen Angels. that’s right; prepare yourselves for some very creative cursing, fellas. other background info for anyone who, like me, is unfamiliar with this spin-off: this series debuted on November 9, 2015, a little over a year after the original series. said original series was currently at chapter 66, meaning the Final Exam arc was just wrapping up.

so now that we’re all properly oriented, let me go over a few disclaimers real quick and then we’ll get started!

all comments are my unspoiled reactions from my initial readthrough of the chapter. I did a quick edit for grammar and clarity afterward, and added a few ETAs in the process, but aside from that there are no changes.

I’m aware that not everyone may be familiar with Smash!! even if they’ve read/watched the original series, so I’ve tried to make this recap comprehensible even if you haven’t read the spin-off. that being said, it’s probably more enjoyable if you have, so you can either purchase the first volume from Viz here, or read the chapter online (I don’t want to link directly, but the spin-off is available on most of the usual sites. literally just google “read mha” and you’ll find some good options).

this readthrough contains a handful of sorta-kinda spoilers for the BnHA manga, although there are no direct spoilers. just an indirect reference to a joke in chapter 242, as well as a reference to a theory which as of now is in no way canon. but just to be on the safe side I’m posting a heads-up.

and I think that’s it! so here we go.

so we’re opening with a brief summary of the series. people have superpowers and shit’s nuts. you know the drill

there’s also a brief description of the way that the superhero economy works, complete with Mt. Lady’s employees unionizing and demanding better pay

...what

guys I keep staring at this and thinking that surely, SURELY it doesn’t say what I think it says. sidekick... what... manager??

you know what? Viz unfortunately doesn’t include this series as part of their subscription package (WHAT AM I PAYING YOU FOR, VIZ), but it does at least include a free preview of Smash, and I bet you that this, the first fucking page of the series, is a part of that preview. so... let’s see...

okay, see, this actually makes sense! so did the FA scanlating team collectively all have a fucking stroke?! just, what??

this is one of the reasons why I had difficulty reading Vigilantes too, tbh. those early chapter scans were, uh. but at least Vigilantes has a Viz scanlation too. I don’t want to spend 10 bucks just to read one volume of this, but we’ll see. anyways

so now there’s a strip about baby!Izuku watching his favorite clip of All Might saving one hundred people from a bus accident or whatever

lol Inko you should not have left your shrewdly calculating four-year-old son unattended omg

TWELVE MONTHS’ WORTH OF TEXTBOOKS HOW CAN THIS EAGER YOUNG MIND RESIST

and this is why you don’t leave your credit card info saved on the computer when you have kids. life lessons learned today

this is the first indicator we have ever had that baby!Izuku wasn’t perfect and was, in fact, capable of being a little shit and giving his mom plenty of gray hairs in his own special way. ngl, I fucking love it

also 12,800 yen is about $118 USD, which is honestly a really good deal for a year’s worth of textbooks. he got three boxes of books! I just googled the average cost of college textbooks, and the google article said the average student spends about $1200 a year. so this is a fucking steal tbh

OH MY GOD INKO HOW MANY TIMES MUST HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF BEFORE YOU LEARN

at least install a fucking adblocker ffs. you’re lucky quirk supplement ads are the worst of the ads he’s getting! PARENTAL CONTROLS

now we are cutting to a comic about baby!Izuku defending another boy from my problematic fave, as seen in page one of the original series!

lmaooo

I’m not clear on how much of this spin-off can actually be considered canon. my understanding is that it is Horikoshi-reviewed and approved, even though he doesn’t actually write it. but it’s obviously a humor series, so a lot of it is just going to be jokes. that being said, I think my approach is going to be “if it’s not completely ridiculous and doesn’t contradict the actual manga, go ahead and consider it canon”

(ETA: I might change this up after reading the first two chapters. most of these strips would have terrifying implications if they were actually canon sob.)

anyhoo, this actually does contradict the manga in that we saw this encounter play out very differently. but I kind of wish it was canon regardless because looool. these cocky preschoolers and their fucking Battle Tears

the next comic is Mt. Lady accidentally stepping on a guy’s face and the guy being way too fucking happy about it (read: having a fucking nosebleed and taking an upskirt shot). we’re just going to skip this entirely. this is another problem I was having with Vigilantes too. you know, for all my complaints about Mineta and such, BnHA as a whole is so much tamer than it could be, and I need to give Horikoshi credit for that. he mostly knows where to draw the line, and to his credit he’s also much, much better about this kind of thing than he was when he first started. maybe Mineta’s standings in the character poll results are helping to clue him in

anyway, I’ll mostly just skip past the iffy stuff because I don’t have patience for it and there’s still plenty of other stuff to cover. so on to the next strip

which features a bunch of reporters fawning over Mt. Lady’s flashy quirk while Kamui Woods laments in the shadows

and yet we know this kid will have a prominent rise within the next six months. it’s so strange to revisit the start of the series and see how much things have changed in such a short time

oh my god

no one who dresses up as a giant mushroom could possibly have good intentions. I. just

and look at the fucking disappointment in Deku’s eyes. KAMUI WOODS HE BELIEVED IN YOU!

now some strange man is coming up to Deku and is all HEY YOU, YOU’RE A HERO OTAKU, TELL ME WHAT TO BUY MY SEVEN-YEAR-OLD SON FOR HIS BIRTHDAY. better not ask him unless you’re prepared to shell out $120 bucks for some fucking textbooks

hey, what!!

WE DIDN’T EVEN GET TO SEE WHAT HE BOUGHT HIM? unless it’s the action figure the kid appears to be holding? but I’m just going to go ahead and assume Izuku recommended the number one best gift that any seven-year-old child would love, i.e. a giant sword

now it’s a sludge monster omake!

so Izuku is trudging home all depressed after CERTAIN INCIDENTS, and Sludgey is glooping his way out of a sewer towards him

oh no All Might

my biggest takeaway from this is the fact that the entire second half of chapter one takes place after All Might has emerged from a fucking sewer. I forgot all about that somehow. or maybe it never fully processed until just now. but omg. this entire chapter must have smelled so fucking bad. these poor kids

wow All Might

sure called that one wrong. ah well nobody’s perfect

looooool

lmao, Smash!!All Might appears to be quite a bit more vain than the original. wow dude

btw, friendly reminder (and I think this is something that was actually pointed out to me after one of the recaps; that’s one of my favorite things about doing these) that All Might, after saving Deku, actually read his notebook before signing it. super-fast, I guess, because he’s the best. but yeah, so he knew exactly how smart and observant Deku was, and how much he wanted to be a hero. his decision to pick him as his successor didn’t just come out of the blue; even before the “my body moved on its own” thing, there was a lot Deku had going in his favor. this is one of those little details of which BnHA has so many, and which I love

lmao what the fuck

ngl this version of the series would have been amazing in its own way. but yeah. so this is why we clearly can’t assume everything in Smash!! is canon lol. but I can already tell I am going to enjoy the shit out of this series

now we’re cutting to Deku running at Sludgey in order to save Kacchan, oh shit. the most dramatic part of chapter one. clearly no moment is sacred

sob what

I don’t understand this strip at all. is this supposed to be a serious moment inserted unexpectedly among this multitude of joke strips? or did I miss the punchline? heeeeelp

(ETA: okay so. my best guess is that All Might wrote all over Deku’s life-saving advice, and so the joke is that Deku no longer knows what to do when assaulting sludge men because HIS NOTES ARE RUINED. idk. what does 25 P mean??)

now All Might has Done The Thing and saved my boys, and now Mt. Lady is helping with the cleanup. scooping up all the bits of sludge and putting it in trash bags

oh my god

nope nevermind. nope. nope

-- shit. okay, you know what? this first chapter has been a real in-your-face reminder of the fact that the sludge monster was not made of cute sparkly 2018-trending-fad slime, but was in fact composed of RAW FUCKING SEWAGE. (ETA: to be clear, I’m pretty sure the joke in this strip is that she accidentally picked up dog-doo during her clean-up. but still, the fact that it was indistinguishable from the rest of the gunk speaks for itself.) I think I forced myself to gloss over this fact originally due to the nope factor. but just. Izuku and Katsuki were both choking to death on this shit?? and just, how the fuck did they make it out of this not traumatized

and also, like. All Might was straight up going to leave Izuku alone afterwards, just, “well enjoy your autograph, fine citizen” and blasting off out of there. and everyone fucking saw Katsuki almost suffocate to death later on, and after giving him a pat on the back they fucking let him go off on his own too? and you can’t even make the argument that this was Just Another Day In Quirk Society either, because more than a year later, Katsuki is still a bona fide fucking celebrity from the media coverage of his attack. it clearly was not something that happens every day. in conclusion, these kids are resilient as fuck, and thank god for that because people apparently just do not give a shit, holy christ

anyway. at least Mt. Lady had gloves

OH MY GOD

I FUCKING KNEW IT OH MY GOD. THE ROIDS. MUSCLES LIKE THAT DON’T JUST GROW ON TREES, I DON’T CARE HOW MANY LBS OF GARBAGE THIS KID HAULED OFF THE BEACH. THIS BOY BEEN HITTIN THE JUICE

Smash!!Might is so fucking shady omfg. probably sells cheap counterfeit electronics on Amazon

oh shit and that’s the end of the fucking chapter lol. that’s it?? that was only eight pages. fuck it, let’s read another. but first here’s Horikoshi’s note on the spin-off

so he really feels that Neda gets the spirit of the series and understands him. that’s very encouraging. the best spoofs and parodies are done out of love. I really think I’m going to enjoy this series

so! onward to chapter two

so here’s All Might dressed as Mr. 2 Bon Clay from One Piece, I guess??

“you know what’s funny? dressing a man in girl’s clothes LOL.” guys can we grow the fuck up. and also acknowledge that All Might can look good in anything, so this questionable gag wouldn’t have even landed anyway. you work that tutu All Might

lmao check out the past users of OFA here

All for One for All theory fucking confirmed lol. just look. that’s him in the back of the conga line. clearly

so Deku is all “hell yes why would I possibly say no??” but then

HIS LIMBS. lmao. sign here

in all seriousness, given the shit this kid has been through since the part of the series, All Might probably should have gotten him to sign a liability waiver of some sort. not that it would have stood, since Deku is underage! anyways Deku you totally have grounds to sue the shit out of the Symbol of Peace should you ever choose to do so. and the trend of Smash!!Might being shady af continues yes please give me more I love it

so now All Might is giving Deku his fitness plan which has a really elaborate name

given that this is Smash!!Might, I can’t help but wonder if this plan is in actuality some sort of MLM scheme. All Might are you trying to get Deku to do Herbalife

lol what in the fuck

the original series skipped right over a hell of a lot, it would seem. like the time Deku traveled to Arizona and fought coyotes in a poncho

I’m starting to suspect that Neda-sensei might be on some sort of substance. “let’s see what jokes can I make about chapter 2 of BnHA. I know, I’ll send the protagonist to a fictionalized version of the American Southwest in a sombrero, and then turn him into a 65-year-old oil tycoon.” naturally

lmao that’s really it, that’s the strip. moving right along. okay??

now Izuku is staring at the intimidating piles of Beach Trash and is all “I HAVE TO PICK ALL THIS SHIT UP?”

omg Deku no

somebody call Marie Kondo. Deku none of this is salvageable. not even to reuse in a color page photoshoot spread four years from now

OH SHIT

PROVED ME WRONG OH SNAP. SHOWED ME RIGHT WHERE I COULD PUT THOSE SASSY TAKES. MY BAD DEKU I’M SORRY

anyways I don’t know what Smash!!Might is so upset about. he probably wove some kind of clause into the contract Deku signed that allows him a percentage of the profits. unless Deku already spent it all on textbooks

what the fuck is this fucking series lmao

time for a round of “what is All Might casually crushing in this panel?” is it (a) a cardboard box, or (b) like, a mini-fridge or some fucking shit. IT COULD BE EITHER. IT MAKES EQUALLY AS MUCH SENSE EITHER WAY. “HEROES THESE DAYS ARE [FLEEEEEEX] OBSESSED WITH BEING FLASHY” 

holy shit no wonder he ran away to the Sierra Nevada. it’s only a matter of time before this freak fucking kills someone

NOW WE’RE CUTTING AWAY TO KAMUI WOODS DRESSED LIKE A DAFFODIL, IN THE SAME FUCKING COMIC STRIP, BECAUSE REASONS

my jokes about the mangaka being high as a fucking kite when he wrote this are gradually becoming less jokes and more serious inquiries??

lol so he coincidentally just stumbled across All Might and Deku at this exact moment

AND IT WAS A FUCKING REFRIGERATOR OH MY FUCKING GOD

do you guys remember during the final exam when All Might beat the everloving shit out of Deku and Kacchan, and everyone was all “JESUS CHRIST WOULD YOU LEARN TO FUCKING HOLD BACK A LITTLE THEY ARE CHILDREN YOU MANIAC.” but now we can see plain as day that he was, in fact, holding back. anyways Smash!!Might is terrifying as shit and if this had been the main series I would have already pegged him as the final villain by this point

here he is now wearing an old-timey bathing suit but looking more like an escaped convict than anything else

this panel is actually canon. I’ve decided. this 100% definitely happened at some point. especially the swimsuit

now two bikini babes are walking up and they’re all “IS THAT ALL MIGHT??” with excited sparkly eyes because they don’t know that he’s actually a deranged con artist who crushes refrigerators like empty soda cans. this spin-off has truly opened my eyes

LOOK AT THIS SKEEVY FUCK. JUST LOOK

AND NOW HE’S RUNNING OFF AND LEAVING DEKU TO DROWN IN EXHAUSTION, SON OF A

“SUDDEN BUSINESS” KSJLDKF SMASH!!MIGHT IS A FUCKING MENACE TO SOCIETY AND ALSO DOES NOT GIVE ONE SINGLE FUCK. NOT ONE!! HE’S OUT THERE FUCKLESS, AND NO ONE IS SAFE

now Deku is approaching his mom all serious and says he wants to change up his diet

and she’s looking at the menu he prepared all impressed and thinking that she might join him. as long as it’s for your health, Inko. if this manga starts making jokes about your weight, I will beat it over the head with Deku’s textbooks

OMFG

THIS WENT IN THE EXACT OPPOSITE DIRECTION I WAS EXPECTING, AND THIS IS THE MOST AMAZING THING I’VE EVER READ WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK. the whole fucking family is on the juice. and the fucking mangaka is on some special juice of his own oh my stars

now we’re cutting to Mt. Lady stomping on a car

thank fuck no one was actually in there. also does she not wear shoes

and also, it only just occurred to me that she must be another person with a special quirk costume, because her suit shrinks and expands along with her. Hagakure and Momo are really getting shafted by the costume design team here. they need to fire some people

anyway so Mt. Lady slipped on this carelessly placed vehicle and fell down and crushed an entire building whoops

bruh, you think you’re “ow.” let’s hope that building was empty too

and now she’s toppling another building just fucking because, I guess. and saying she can’t do urban areas

lmao and now the sidekick [CENSORED] manager from chapter one is back to guilt-trip her omg

I need this man to show up in every freaking chapter. please. respect my wishes

and now Izuku is standing on top of his collected pile of garbage screaming in victory

I only just realized that there’s still a big old Pile O’ Trash on this beach, though. someone needs to haul all of this junk away. or else get All Might and Mt. Lady to crush it all with a combined effort

oh shit here it comes y’all, the famous “eat my hair” scene. potential comedy gold right here omg

lol what the fuck

this man is a fucking billionaire and he’s out here clipping coupons and deleting pictures of his son in order to make room for them smdh

okay now we’re doing the hair scene

oh. oh no. I know where this is going sob please keep this comic rated PG for the children Neda

motherfucker they really --

Smash!!Might is a straight-up felon. this man has no fucking scruples. that’s okay Midoriya-shounen, if you don’t want to eat my hair we could just try some REDACTED, jesus christ I am going to need some bleach for my eyes after this

OR LET’S JUST STRAIGHT UP GO THERE WHY NOT

lmao sob. well, two chapters in and we’ve established that no territory is off-limits here. it’s a brave new world. wow

 so that’s it! our introduction to BnHA Smash!! I enjoyed it a lot and I will definitely be reading more! I’m not sure what kind of schedule I’ll keep, but this is a really good procrastination manga thus far, so knowing me I might actually work my way through this relatively quickly. especially since the Manga At Large is on break this week. anyways my deepest apologies to the many people who have been requesting for me to start Vigilantes instead. I just need something lighter right now, and this is a good fit. one of these days I’ll get my shit together with the other two spinoffs as well.