#777; exacerbation

[mariacallous]

India’s $13.9 billion aviation industry—projected to cater to over 300 million domestically by 2030—is a ticking time bomb.

This July, in the sweltering heat at the Delhi High Court, additional solicitor general Aishwarya Bhati announced that new rules on pilot duty and rest periods would not be implemented this year after all. Introduced by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) in January, the rules were designed specifically to combat pilot fatigue. They were set to take effect in June, but were abruptly retracted. The hearing addressed a writ petition filed by the Federation of Indian Pilots (FIP), seeking clarity on when the new norms would be enforced. The DGCA’s response followed its request to airline companies in April for a tentative implementation timeline.

Concerns over pilot fatigue had been mounting in the months leading up to the announcement of the new Flight Duty Period, Flight Time Limitations, and Prescribed Rest Periods by the DGCA. The urgency deepened in November 2023 when a 37-year-old Air India pilot, Captain Himanil Kumar, collapsed at Delhi Airport while training to fly the airline's Boeing 777 fleet, and later died at the hospital. Kumar was the second Indian pilot to die on duty within three months; in August, Captain Manoj Subramanyam, a 40-year-old IndiGo pilot, suffered a fatal cardiac arrest just minutes before his flight from Nagpur.

These back-to-back tragedies raised alarm in the industry. “Another young Indian pilot passed away today due to a suspected cardiac event,” reportedly tweeted Captain Shakti Lumba, a retired IndiGo VP who is now the president of the Professional Pilots Society in India (His tweet was since deleted.) “If this doesn’t convince the DGCA, civil aviation ministry, and airlines to urgently address the stress, fatigue, and anxiety among pilots, nothing will.”

The DGCA, India’s aviation watchdog, regulates the country’s Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL). At 13 hours of flight duty time, India’s FDTL is already demanding, but after the pandemic slowdown, increased route expansion and pilot shortages have forced many to fly beyond the recommended maximum of 60 hours a week, exacerbating crew exhaustion. The DGCA finally responded to the growing crisis by revising FDTL norms in January 2024.

The new guidelines increased weekly rest periods from 36 to 48 hours and introduced quarterly fatigue reports. Its scheduled implementation on June 1, 2024, was pushed back due to pressure from operators. An airline CEO, speaking anonymously to the Economic Times in January, claimed the proposed regulations would require a 20 percent increase in pilot numbers, which would escalate expenses and lead to huge numbers of flight cancellations. Still, the DGCA held firm on the FDTL implementation deadline till early March. By the end of the month, however, it appeared to have yielded to influence from the airline lobby. A notice on the regulator’s website announced the deadline had been deferred, without providing a reason or setting a new date.

The pilot fatigue problem isn’t unique to India. In January, two pilots for Indonesia-based Batik Air fell asleep for 28 minutes mid-flight, causing their plane to veer off course between Sulawesi and Jakarta. In April, unionized Virgin Atlantic pilots in the UK voted 96 percent in favor of pursuing an industrial action in response to rising fatigue. Earlier, the CEO of Wizz Air UK faced a backlash for urging crew members to push through their fatigue to avoid flight cancellations. In May, senior pilots at Virgin Australia raised safety concerns, claiming rostering systems were pushing them "to the limits.”

But in India, the belief that overwork and fatigue are not just acceptable but essential has become entrenched across industries. The aviation crisis is just the tip of the iceberg; it is the tech industry that is leading the charge. Last year, Infosys cofounder Narayana Murthy suggested that Indian youth should work 70 hours a week for the nation's development. Murthy’s advice came up at the Indian Parliament on the first day of its winter session and found support from a list of influential Indian tech leaders, including Bhavish Aggarwal, founder of India’s first AI unicorn, Ola Krutrim; Ayushmaan Kapoor, cofounder of the AI-powered customer platform Xeno; and even veterans like Sajjan Jindal, CEO and MD of JSW Group, and Vinod Khosla of Sun Microsystems. Almost all of them justified the extended work hours, which far exceed the maximum eight to nine hours per day stipulated by the International Labour Organisation and the Indian Labour Code, as necessary for strengthening India’s economy. “We have to make India an economic superpower that we can all be proud of,” Jindal wrote on X. He cited Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, “who works 14-16 hours everyday,”as a model. In July this year, the Karnataka State IT/ITeS Employee Union said the state government had plans to increase working hours in the sector from the current maximum of 10 hours (including overtime) to a staggering 14 hours a day. As the union planned massive campaigns to oppose the move, the labor minister stated that the push for the proposal had come from the companies.

The airline companies think they have a solution to the fatigue crisis: technology. IndiGo, India’s largest airline, announced it would be an “early adopter” of a wrist-worn fatigue-monitoring device it was developing with French defense and aerospace company Thales Group. The device can provide “detailed insights into demographic data, including routes, pairings, crew profiles, and more, going beyond traditional scheduling-focused biomathematical models,” the airline stated in a press release in September. The airline, which operates 2,000 flights daily and employs over 5,000 pilots, said the device would be rolled out after a proof-of-concept trial. No date for the rollout was announced.

Wearable activity trackers are not new to the aviation industry. IndiGo’s device sounds similar to Actiwatch, a now-discontinued line of research-grade actigraphs from Philips, used to monitor sleep patterns, study circadian rhythms, and track physical activity as part of an airline’s fatigue risk-management system. But they partly rely on performance tests and subjective measures, such as self-reporting, which often results in being targeted by the airlines, says Captain C. S. Randhawa, president of the Federation of Indian Pilots. Safety management systems on the whole tend to be neglected by operators and are viewed as an additional expense, says Captain Amit Singh of the NGO Safety Matters Foundation.

In May 2023, Air India launched safety management software called Coruson, as well as BAM (Boeing Alertness Model), a fatigue-mitigation tool integrated into its rostering system, which is used by airlines to create and manage pilot schedules. Coruson, developed by cloud software company Ideagen, centralizes, analyzes, and reports on safety-related data—such as incidents, hazards, and risk assessments. BAM, developed jointly by Boeing and the software company Jeppesen, predicts and manages pilot fatigue by analyzing flight schedules and performance data. These tools were designed to prevent the creation of fatiguing rosters and pairings, Air India CEO Campbell Wilson noted in an internal message to employees. The carrier also introduced two new digital tools for its crew—the Pilot Sector Report app, to help pilots easily submit information on flight performance, incidents, and observations post-flight; and DocuNet, a digital management system that facilitates the storage, retrieval, and sharing of documents (such as flight manuals, training records, and compliance documents).

Despite these measures, the airline was fined by the DGCA in March this year for violating FDTL limits and fatigue management rules. This May, Air India Express cabin staff called in sick en masse to protest against “mismanagement.” This followed a similar protest from the crew, mostly pilots, at Vistara airlines. Both Air India and Vistara are now owned by one of India’s largest conglomerates, the Tata Group, which took over the former from the Indian government in January 2022.

Twenty-five of those who called in sick at Air India Express were terminated. Others were reportedly served an ultimatum. Those sacked were later reinstated by the airline following an intervention by the chief labour commissioner. Nearly a week before, the regional labor commissioner of Delhi had allegedly written to the Tata group chairman pointing to “blatant violations of labour laws” and insisting the legitimate concerns of the cabin crew be looked into. According to CNBC, Vistara employees said the agitation at their end had to do with recent salary updates, which fixed pilot pay at 40 flight hours—down from 70. Protesting first officers claimed that the new salary structure would result in an almost 57 percent pay cut. Under the new terms they would also have to fly up to 76 hours to earn what they were previously earning at 70 hours.

To placate the pilots and get them back to work, management had assured them that salaries for the “extra working hours” would be credited once Vistara was integrated with Air India. At the time, two Air India pilots unions had written to the chairman of the company, saying that such issues were not isolated but systemic. Burnout was the other related issue, with many pilots complaining of inadequate rest and being pushed to their limits.

Captain Singh, a former senior manager at AirAsia, tells WIRED that such effects significantly increase the risk of accidents, but also adversely affect pilot health in the long run. Tail swaps—rushing between different types of aircraft to take off immediately after disembarking from another—have become more prevalent under the 13-hour rules, and can further contribute to exhaustion, as do hasty acclimatization and, most significantly, landing three, four, or more flights consecutively, which Captain Randhawa described as a “severe energy management challenge.”

In the 2024 “Safety Culture Survey” conducted by Singh’s Safety Matters Foundation in July, 81 percent of 530 respondents, primarily medium- to short-haul pilots, stated that bufferless rosters contribute to their fatigue. As many as 84 percent indicated concerns with the speed and direction of shift rotation. “That’s the problem with the new rostering softwares the operators are introducing,” a pilot from a private airline, who requested anonymity, says. “They’re optimizers designed to make pilots work every second of their 13-hour schedule, leaving no breathing room.” The buffer-deficient timetables push pilots to their limits, so any additional pressure—like unpredictable weather—can easily overwhelm them.

Solving this issue with wrist-worn fatigue-measuring devices is contentious. But that isn’t the only problem. A year since they were hyped up, the buzz around fatigue-management tech has all but fizzled out. There have been no updates from IndiGo about the wrist device. Neither IndiGo nor the Thales Group responded to requests to comment.

[iinherdiary]

𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐒 𝐀𝐍 𝐈𝐍𝐓𝐑𝐎𝐃𝐔𝐂𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 ?

YOU KNOW NAMI? NAMI WILLIAMS?

Namie Williams, a twenty-nine-year-old originally from Austin, Texas made her way to Brooklyn around 3 years ago to pursue her dreams of being a famous singer. Though, at the moment, she's just a barista who's arguably not very good at her job, but is kept around as a personality hire.

Namie’s upbringing was colored by financial struggles exacerbated by her mother’s addiction to shopping and a hoarding problem, juxtaposed with her father’s limited income. Despite the challenges she faced, Namie has a deep love for her mother, recognizing her more as an older sister figure than a traditional parent.

Beyond the confines of her coffee making duties, Namie channels her passion for literature and music into a thriving YouTube channel, where she offers insightful book and music reviews to an audience of over 70,000 subscribers. She learned to play the guitar from her older sister at just seven years old, and often posts covers on her channel as well.

Despite being a micro influencer, Nami has struggled to find any main stream success when it comes to her music. She doesn't let this upset her though, even though it totally upsets her, and keeps her confidence unwavering. Some people say she can be a little bit WORKAHOLIC and STUBBORN, but Nami will just tell you she's HONEST and CONFIDENT

STATS !

NAME: Namie Williams

BIRTHDAY: December 12th 1995

ZODIAC: Sagittarius 

HEIGHT: 5'8

GENDER: Cis-Female

SEXUAL ORIENTATION: Bisexual

FAMILY: Mom (Lana Williams), Dad (Randall Williams), Older Sister (Mara Williams), Younger Brother (Jade Williams. Deceased, 2019)

TATTOOS: Her mother’s name “Lana” on the inside of her right wrist and “777” on the side of her left hand.

PEIRECINGS: Both ears.

𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐒 𝐀𝐍 𝐈𝐍𝐓𝐑𝐎𝐃𝐔𝐂𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 ?

THAT ONE GUY...ELIJAH LEE? I THINK?

Elijah Lee, a forty-two-year-old born in Busan, South Korea until his family relocated to Idaho when he was seven, made his way to Manhattan 12 years ago after marrying his wife, Gina, who he never wanted to marry in the first place, but! That's none of my business!

Elijah has been a practicing public defense attorney for fifteen years now, finding great pride in his work and often spends his nights in his office. It seems Elijah spends more time away from his expensive apartment at the Cedar Wood Lofts. He likes to avoid his wife like the plague due to their marriage being, more or less, arranged by their parents upon their college graduation. He doesn't hate her, in fact, they were friends before they got married, he just doesn't want to be married to her.

So, he stays in his office and he throws himself into his work or his books. Elijah has always loved to read, acquiring a massive collection of all types of books. Seriously, you could spin a wheel of random titles, and this man will have the hard copy with citations inside.

Some people say he can be a little bit COCKY and CYNICAL due to his work, but Elijah would describe himself to be EMPATHETIC and PASSIONATE.

STATS !

NAME: Elijah Lee

BIRTHDAY: December 16, 1981

ZODIAC: Sagittarius

HEIGHT: 6'0

GENDER: Cis-Male

SEXUAL ORIENTATION: Bisexual

FAMILY: Mom (Ellen Lee), Dad (Jiyong Lee), Younger Brother (John Lee), Wife (Gina Lee)

[rural-panoptes]

Document Type: CRMM

Collection: FIRSTLIGHT

Document Number (FOIF) /ESFL (CRMM):

LOC-HAK-8-5-9-5

Release Decision: NOT RELEASED

Original Classification: K

Document Page Count: 3

Document Creation Date: May 29th, 2023

Document Release Date: November 18, 2055

Sequence Number: 2

Case Number: RSB-777-54-8

Content Type: MISC

File:

It has come to my attention, through second and first hand observation, that there is a severe lack of competence in the Philadelphia office. It's a shame, really, that an establishment could be so thoroughly neglected by its staff and especially management. It's a miracle that it has not burnt to the ground or become a fetid bloodbath within it's far-from-pristine walls. That is at least, as of writing this, it has not. I have my doubts that such a thing will remain true within the coming days.

I have watched from afar the affairs of former staff and property BB10467 Roderika Bloem and her intriguing companion BB782290 Violette who bound her by blood and defaced her body with blasphemous imagery and a false sense of holiness. Given Ms. Bloem's prior excellent behavior, I admit to my mistaken lax in guard, as I have previously recorded in regards to her escape. However, I cannot possibly compare in negligence to that of the Philadelphia staff at large, as well as a Mr. Finlay Abernethy.

While he may not be tenured member of the Philadelphia team, his absolute incompetence in handling one such a case should not go unspoken. Further exacerbated by his interviews with Ms. Violette, where he repeatedly shows an overly lax and friendly disposition, like that of a good-natured rivalry. While I take no issue with one such a tactic when applied in a way that is helpful, I must stress that he has done nothing but enable her or taunt her in such a way that it would likely get him killed. He is a fool, and he would deserve such a fate.

Speaking further on the negligence and incompetence of the staff at large, the treatment of Ms. Violette has shown a total lack of regard for the safety of the team and longevity of peaceful communication that they seem so desperate to have with her. She is little more than a ticking time bomb with what is essentially free reign of the facility, and knowledge far beyond that which is spoken within the rooms she is kept in. The very fact that I am seemingly the only one to notice such an occurrence should further speak to the absolute incompetence shown by the horrifically disappointing staff and Mr. Abernethy.

My purpose in the Philadelphia location was completed as needed, through the grace of God, in relieving Ms. Bloem's body of foreign blood. I have very nearly severed the connection between the two. The remaining bond should, per my recommendation, be allowed to fade naturally, lest we lose a valuable asset.

I have absolutely no faith that such a simple, mundane task will be successfully completed.

Listed below will be the various, heinous lapses in judgement and decisions bordering on gross negligence made by the Philadelphia staff and Finlay, in no particular order:

There has been no attempt to restrain Violette since the first night after her capture, except through the fitting of a standard bomb collar, the only modification to which was a synthetic band instead of the usual leather. Recently, she has simply pulled the entire device through her own neck and used it as a grenade.

No one has inquired as to any quirks of this largely unknown clan. It took a month for it to come to anyone's attention that apparently there is some vital need being unmet that other BBs consider likely to drive her to sudden and uncontrollable violence.

The only person in the room with this unrestrained dangerous and unpredictable creature during what passes as interrogations, is the crippled and severely inebriated Mr. Abernethy, who has repeatedly offered her his own blood.

Mr. Abernethy handed her a gun loaded with dragon's breath rounds.

Ms. Violette has been allowed to set the tone of and completely socially engineer every situation she is in.

The fleshcrafter was smuggled into medbay to do dubious surgery on soldiers without any clearance and little to no supervision or precaution.

I appreciate your time, as always, in reading my report, and do hope you enjoy the remainder of your days.

Fondest regards,

Eden

[deathspeaker]

Fell into a stress hole...

So years before my Dad died I encouraged him to buy a house. At the time we lived in a condo with MANY stairs. You couldn't even enter the house without going up stairs. There was no way to reach a bedroom or a bathroom without using the stairs. His health was failing and I anticipated it would only be harder to keep him out of assisted living if we stayed put.

So we moved into a smallish house (just under 1,200 sqft, to non-freedom units people yes that's a small house in America) that had no steps beyond the step up into the house. It was really inexpensive because it was a foreclosure. He spent the last 6 years of his life in it.

I am disabled. I can't hold down a job (my list of disabilities and issues has gotten even bigger in the last 2 years), so before he passed he told my brothers 'Take care of your sister.'

So even though I can't pay the mortgage of taxes for the house my eldest brother takes care of that (in exchange he gets to live for free in the house my mom got for him when his credit was too bad to sign a loan. She paid it off within 5 years of buying it but he still owed her money for it, basically paying rent till he paid her back).

It's a 3 bedroom 2 bath house. With itty bitty bathrooms and still needs repairs and updates but it's a house with a decent property in a decent neighborhood close to much of anything you need. I recognize I am insanely lucky to have this place.

So in a year my Nephew's lease is up and he pays 2k in rent a month (my mortgage is 777$), he has a wife and 2 daughters. They are currently renting a 2 bed 2 bath dinky apartment. The rent will go up if he renews the lease...

So everyone is looking at me like:

I love my nephew, I love my great-nieces, and love his wife. I would gladly give them my house because I am the kind of person who believes in making sacrifices for others, even at the cost of my own health (because I undervalue myself and my autistic ass is intent on proving that I'm not some kind of useless leech that society and libertarians keep insisting I am)

So if I give up my house to them (and I am willing to) that means I will need to find new housing. My most immediate options are to move in with my eldest brother and his wife or my mother.

I rather slit my throat than live with my mother. She is the source of like... many of my insecurities and mental health issues (or at least exacerbated existing mental illnesses to the breaking point).

And my eldest brother who loves constantly having his loud and obnoxious friends over. I am AUTISTIC. I have social phobias. I have panic attacks when I visit his house when his friends are there. Sure it would be preferable to living with my mom but that's still choosing to be shot in the gut rather than the head.

So now I'm so stressed I've fallen into a well of self-loathing and depression.

[influencermagazineuk]

Runway Chaos at Gatwick: British Airways Incident Causes Massive Delays

Massive delays were experienced by passengers at London's Gatwick Airport after a British Airways aircraft headed for Vancouver cancelled its take-off, closing the runway. This resulted in numerous flight delays and diversions, affecting a large number of people on the biggest day of the year for air travel in Europe. Chaos broke out as a British Airways flight headed for Vancouver abruptly stopped at the runway on a busy day at London Gatwick airport, causing significant disruption. A number of flights were diverted and the airport's unmarried runway was closed as a result of the overheated brakes and burst tires. In order to guarantee passenger safety, emergency services acted quickly. Technical difficulties forced the Boeing 777 flight, BA2279, to abort take-off; fortunately, none of the passengers or crew had been hurt. Even though the airline promised to prioritize safety, there have been serious consequences. Travelers are now experiencing further inconvenience as flights scheduled to arrive at Gatwick have been rerouted to other airports. Flights from Verona, Palermo, and Barcelona—operated by British Airways, easyJet, and Vueling, respectively—were among those that were diverted. Not even a massive Emirates A380 from Dubai could land at Gatwick; it had to land in Brussels. As a result of this cascading effect, hundreds of passengers were delayed or left stranded, and aircraft and crews had to be reassigned to new locations. Even although Gatwick's operations eventually resumed, the incident's results lingered all day. As they made their manner via the continuous disruptions, passengers had to cope with longer wait durations and realistic problems. The incident introduced to light the difficulties in dealing with air travel, especially in Europe all through durations of excessive call for. Authorities at Gatwick Airport burdened that safety became their pinnacle priority and highlighted how speedy the airport's fireplace branch handled the incident. The standby runway turned into to be had, but because of persevering with emergency operations, it became not used. Travelers stranded in the aftermath of the runway shutdown had extra problem as climate conditions all through Continental Europe exacerbated delays. In conclusion, despite the fact that the incident's immediately influences had been contained, its repercussions continued, influencing airline schedules and generating annoyance for heaps of tourists. Even at the busiest days of the year, the occasion at Gatwick served as a sobering reminder of the way sensitive air travel operations can be. Read the full article

[merrysithmas]

some POPPER-centric hcs:

I.

Boris and Theo celebrating Popper's birthday together for two years, waking up at two in the afternoon, blinds drawn tight - but not tight enough to banish the bright gleam of treasure chest gold that flares through the slits between them, 777 Vegas coin yellow, graffitiing malleable stripes of desert sun across the walls and crumpled sheets. Theo peeking a tired eye over the coverlet from under Boris' arm, little Popper’s big cookie-round ink eyes already awake and staring at him, tail wagging bashfully against the sheets in the silence.

Boris, who was snoring just a moment ago, starts up, suddenly, electrified, hollering a gasping realization that sounds something like, “Moy malchik!” The sound pops a breaker in Theo’s brain, letting loose a migraine from last night's bender, which is evidenced by the toppled pill bottles (Xandra's), the semi-collapsed beer cans and the vague memory of Boris' stoned over-confidence ("Potter! Look - against my head - watch - I bet I can - like the movies!"), and the ultimately ignorable ache of his hamstrings.

At Boris' startling exclamation Popper lets loose an exuberant tirade of ungodly shrieking, like set off by the crack of a gun at race he was raring for, immediately licking Boris' morning-slick skin, teenaged greasy and gross, and Boris is laughing so loud that the walls almost shake, as they are so regularly starved and thin of joy. And Theo sits up, wincing (that phantom ache again, inadmissible memories) and leans on his elbow, reaching out to pat the wild little thing who quickly turns on him, "Ok - Happy birthday! Happy birthday!"

II.

Boris and Theo washing Popper in the sink - he reeks. Sickly sweet rotten fruit-smell compounded with the wet mildewy stench of old laundry, distinctly intermixed with the odor of shit. Popper’s yelping echoes through the kitchen like an antique car horn, petrified, claws rigid on the edge of the sink, braced for continued frantic attempts to flee his sudsy prison and energized with bouts of fervor not entirely unlike a demonic possession. The one overhead light fixed accusatorily above the kitchen sink makes the whole set up look like an interrogation room - worlds away from the girly relaxing grooming videos they found on Youtube.

“Potter! Not this way!" Boris screeches - voice cracking like it has been lately - exacerbated in its rawness by the cheap, caustic brand of cigarettes he smokes. Lately they’ve been meeting the parched maw of his chapped lips like a consecutive line of ants, one after the other, his fingernails yellowing. Popper shakes violently, way before Theo is ready and can throw the ratty towel across his drenched body, whirling like a windmill, fur centripetal and spiralling, soaking their filthy t-shirts flat onto their bony bruised limbs.

“Oh, Popper," Boris outright coos, followed by a placating barrage of what is unmistakably a grandmotherly coddle of (likely) Polish. "You look just like Potter!" he declares, finally discarding his ciagrette, which dims in the puddle on the counter as it sucks up water. Theo grabs it as it does, revives it, takes a long, charring drag of nicotine and tar. His eyes narrow behind his glasses, observing the drowned-rat Maltese, frigid and shaking to its bones, and completely hates how Popper's forlorn appearance quite accurately recalls his own reflecton, just in from the pool, hair flat to his head, eyes big and, somehow always, helpless.

III.

Boris and Theo say goodbye to Popper when he is fifteen. Congestive heart failure - a diagnosis so deleterious and uncomfortably human Theo finds it hard to believe when the middle-aged vet ("Dr Janet", purple earrings, thick rectangular glasses - incense burning, loose leaf tea drinking, National Park lover) breaks it to him. She seems to understand the frozen bones in his shoulders and his unexpected quietness better than he does, leaving the room before he notices she’s gone.

Even in the darkest edges of his flayed existentialisms Theo never found room for dogs. Dogs, he supposes for the first time, in an achingly unfair realization, with their bright renewable resource of happiness (which they often give freely even to the undesevering, or unknowning, or unappreciative) are immune to such nihilistic musings. Popper stares at him from the table, ragged and old, too heavy in the middle and too thin on the edges, breathing all wrong. How did - all that time pass?

Boris, on video-chat in Kyyiv, up to no nefarious deed (he insists) is the one, for once, startled by Theo’s harsh red eyes, like he's been doping too much again, but there’s no dope - just a clinical setting and a hard shuddering breathing, from somewhere offscreen, quiet like it’s coming from a baby in crib.

Boris, like a knitted sweater, so often and inevitably pulled in many different directions until he disappears, seems to swat away half a dozen Non-English speaking acquaintances before the line goes quiet on his end and Theo can actually explain what is going on. The way he touches the screen on the video chat with his fingertips when Theo presents it to Popper (“Let me see him please,” Boris had asked, with no hidden heartbreak) makes Theo’s chest crush inward like the emotional equivalent of the impact of a car accident.

Boris says no at first, when Theo makes the suggestion, no let him go when he's supposed to, not yet, then: let me see him first, and makes it all the way to JFK before his phone rings. He doesn't answer, won't, but when he walks in the jingling door from the merciless city rain, the black tails of his coat dragging water, all sharp angles and dark shadows, he already knows.

“He couldn’t wait anymore,” Theo says. And when he meets Theo’s cherry red eyes, Boris doesn’t yell, or get angry - he cries. Right there in the lobby - he cries. Hands shielding his eyes, like a boy cowering beneath the shade of an umbrella.

IV.

Later they bump coke in the bathroom of Gramercy Tavern, shitfaced at the table, “Remember when he ate Xandra’s G-string?” Theo says so loudly it rings across the room like a papal blessing.

“Aha! Yes! So sneaky. Little pervert! Gets that from you! And the time he shit in the grocery store? Aisle 12?”

The memories pour out: “His fucking pink collar with the bell on it.” “How he howl like - ooo ooo oooo! So annoying! Always in the morning! Yes, Popchyk! I’m coming!” “Oh when we caught him fucking The Playa’s chihuahua?” “да, I told him he could do better! He was nice boy she was not so nice. Still, he got more ass than either one of us,” Boris says fondly, proudly, and clinks his shotglass to Theo for what seems like the hundreth time.

“Something deeply not right about catching a Maltese in the throes of passion,” Theo says, blinking long-disturbed eyes behind the dewy lenses of his glasses. Boris seems to agree, with a noncomittal grunt, and puts a heavy, vice-like grip onto Theo’s shoulder, shaking him until he looks up.

“Like a teddy bear getting a blowjob,” he says, and Theo laughs a half-choked laugh. They’re both crying. They’re both fucking crying.

“To Popchyk née Popper, G-string sniffer, pillow hat, accomplished singer,” Theo sniffs, sitting up straightly from his messy, hunched position over the table, head back against the booth. Boris meets his eyes, they’re both such a fucking mess. “And friend.”

“Vichnaya pamyat,” Boris says formally, in response. Theo smashes his glass, agreeing.

“Eternal memory.”

V.

“Open any one! Any one you want!” Boris crows happily, the tip of his nose red like he’s been outside in the cold but he hasn’t, not for hours, and the sloshing bottle of Christmas cheer which is sitting (carelessly, without a coaster, Theo notices with disdain) on the mahogany side table is nearly empty at only half past noon. “Oh! My big mistake!” Boris makes a big show of putting his hand to his chest in guilt, elevating the bottle and placing it on top of a book instead. “блядь,” he scoffs.

“I know what ‘bitch’ in Russian is,” Theo answers, wrapped warmly in a woolen Burberry pullover, burgundy, with the festive forest green cuffs of his starched button up curling around the ends of his sleeves. Snow is falling outside like white wafting butterflies, the stone Antwerp architecture nestled under frost, Tchaikovsky on the speakers hooked up to Boris’ sentimental iPhone.

“I know!” Boris says cheerily, gesturing towards the presents beneath the tree with a sweeping, encouraging hand. “Any one!”

Theo rolls his eyes, but as they land on the smattering of gifts wrapped festively on the dark hardwood floor his mood lifts. Picking up a small one, dark matte navy blue with a silver ribbon Boris exclaims offendedly -

“No! Any one!” he repeats, taking the blue one out of Theo’s hands and replacing it with a rather less elegant medium-sized red box, bundled together with a haphazard green string. “This one!”

The oddly-weighted box quivers in his grip, a strange feeling which sends an unexpected thrill of fear through Theo, “What is this.”

“Open!” Boris goads. “Just look!” he seems pleased with himself, taking another long hit off the joint that is smoking in the ash tray and then rubbing his palms together and leaning forward over his knees, eagerly like a kid.

The box is easy to open, just a cover over a base, which Theo lifts to reveal the small fuzzy face of a tiny, tiny round dog, so extremely gay, circular in the face like a teddy bear, pawing at the side of the box.

“You like her?” Boris asks with the trepidation of new fallen snow, peering over Theo’s shoulder.

The puppy stares at him, unblinking and cherubic, and softly licks Theo’s nose. It happily lets out the shrillest bark from its tiny lungs, a sound so high-pitched it makes the bells on the tree tingle in the vaguest memory of tinnitus.

“Ah, бубенчик Popchykova!” Boris laughs.

Theo hoists the little thing up, blinking tree lights ensconsing the ball of its fuzz, an ornament-shape itself - the puppy wriggles disorganized limbs in midair, pawing innocently for warmth and closeness. Somehow smaller, more effeminate, and more annoying than his last dog. He loves her already. Round cookie-shaped eyes and a bark that splits his skull. And the name?

It fits.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Graphics by Anna Wiederkehr

Over the past few weeks, the national media’s attention has shifted to the protests against police brutality that have arisen across the country following the death of George Floyd, a black man killed by a police officer in Minneapolis. That brutality and those protests, however, are nothing new — on-duty police officers have fatally shot about 1,000 Americans every year between 2015 and 2019, and black people are consistently most at risk of being killed by police. This year has been no different so far.

But the media hasn’t paid much attention to protests against police brutality or misconduct over the last few years. These protests, often grouped under the umbrella of the Black Lives Matter movement, featured prominently in national media during and after the 2014 demonstrations in Ferguson, Missouri. In recent years, though, they have received much less media attention.

According to our analysis of closed captioning data of cable news broadcasts from the TV News Archive1 as well as headlines of online news articles in Media Cloud’s database,2 the phrase “Black Lives Matter” appeared less than half as frequently on both mediums between 2017 and 2019 as it did from 2014 to 2016.

We also ran queries for cable news snippets and online news headlines containing the words “police,” “black” and either “violence,” “brutality,” “kill,” or “killed” to get a sense of whether these patterns were also present in coverage of the underlying issues the Black Lives Matter movement seeks to address. The query returned similar results, with a large spike in July 2016 — after a black gunman shot and killed five police officers during a peaceful demonstration in Dallas — followed by significantly fewer results until Floyd’s death. (We haven’t run a full analysis of FiveThirtyEight’s coverage, but we certainly covered the recent protests far more than past Black Lives Matter protests during the Trump administration.)

Danielle Kilgo, a professor of journalism, diversity and equality at the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, pointed to two stories involving black men shot and killed by police between 2017 and 2019 that didn’t get nearly as much national press: The protests in St. Louis after a white police officer, Jason Stockley, was acquitted of first-degree murder for a 2011 shooting in which he killed 24-year-old Anthony Lamar Smith, and the protests in Sacramento, California, after the death of Stephon Clark, a 22-year-old killed by police who said they believed he had a gun (the only item later found near Clark was his cellphone).

The protests in St. Louis, for example, shared many of the same elements as those in the past few weeks: there was a video of the incident, the protests lasted for days and turned violent at times, and dozens of people were arrested, including a journalist. “They were huge protests and they were prolonged protests, but they didn’t receive the coverage they needed to expand beyond that,” Kilgo said. She hypothesized that it was in part because the protests came on the heels of the Unite the Right rally that brought white supremacists to Charlottesville, Virginia. The rally drew a lot of media attention and may have shifted the conversation about racism away from Black Lives Matter and towards a discussion about white supremacy, she said. Kilgo also noted that the story of players kneeling during the national anthem at football games was getting a lot of coverage in the national press around the time of the St. Louis protests, especially after the president weighed in.

“The whole news broadcast couldn’t be about racism,” she said, pointing to other stories related to racism, like racist rhetoric coming from the president, that could have drawn the media’s attention away from Black Lives Matter. “I think they were just blinded by other things. There’s lots of shiny objects floating around in our political landscape right now.”

It’s not only important for protest movements to receive media coverage — the focus of the coverage also makes a difference. In order to successfully achieve policy aims, protest movements must walk a fine line. They need to be disruptive enough to capture and hold national attention, but also retain enough public support to pressure politicians into action.

Kilgo’s research suggests that this task may be a particularly tough one for the Black Lives Matter movement because protests about anti-black racism tend to get less legitimizing news coverage. In a review of 777 news articles from 20 different newsrooms in Texas, Kilgo found that press reports were more likely to emphasize the disruption caused by protests and less likely to emphasize legitimate political grievances, compared to reports of protests about other issues like health and immigration. And the coverage of protests against anti-black racism was also more likely to rely on official sources rather than protestors’ perspectives.

I spoke with Drexton Clemons, a 26-year-old stand-up comic in New York City who has been out protesting several times since George Floyd’s death, about what it has been like to watch the coverage and observe the media at the protests. He told me that while media was present throughout the entirety of one protest he attended, he felt the media presence was heavier later on in the day, “as if to capture some of the brutality that the police are doing onto the protesters, as well as the rioting or looting.”

“They’re missing hours and hours and hours of people peacefully protesting,” he said, “but it almost seems as if they don’t care about that particular narrative.”

Kilgo told me media coverage often fails to explore the nuances in interactions between the police and protesters. “This idea of police militarization and police and their actions at protests was really reduced to the idea of ‘clashes’ or the idea that they were arresting someone,” she said of coverage of previous protests. This isn’t the first time journalists have been arrested at Black Lives Matter protests, but now that the police have attacked and arrested multiple journalists, “there is a discussion of protection of the press, a First Amendment right,” something she says was mostly absent from previous coverage. But she also noted that the same amendment that protects the free press also protects the protesters’ rights to peaceably assemble.

So far, it seems that the protests in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death have, despite the hurdles Kilgo’s study highlighted, managed to retain public support while capturing the media’s attention. A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted from May 28 to June 2 found that when asked to choose, 59 percent of Americans were more concerned about “the actions of police and the death of an African American man,” while only 27 percent reported being more concerned that the protests had turned violent.

But the road to permanent change is long. A recent study from Omar Wasow, suggests that areas that saw violent protests in the 1960s saw an increase in President Richard Nixon’s vote share in the 1968 election. (Nixon ran on a “law and order” platform and waged a “war on drugs” that exacerbated many of the racial inequalities in the criminal justice system that the protesters are working to undo.) It is unclear to what extent the lessons from the 1960s will apply today, but having public support undoubtedly will help activists pressure politicians to implement reforms. And much of that public support may be contingent on how the story of the movement is covered by mainstream press.

[iowamedia]

‘Staffing crisis’ grips Iowa hospitals as COVID cases climb

‘Staffing crisis’ grips Iowa hospitals as COVID cases climb

A recent job posting that seeks temporary critical care nurses for a major Des Moines hospital offered pay of $100 per hour and a weekly stipend of about $1,200 for three months of work. The demand for so-called “traveling nurses” from other states has risen as longstanding nursing shortages have been exacerbated by a surge of COVID-19 hospitalizations. There were 777 people infected by the…

[jeramymobley]

Business Success Requires A Clear View Of Reality

The vast majority of organizations convene some form of leadership team meeting each week. Key members of the company update the management team and the organization’s leader on wins and progress, and also raise concerns about initiatives that are off track, metrics that are stagnating, or other potential problems on the horizon.

As in all leadership settings, it’s crucial for businesses to gather real-time information—both positive and negative—to adjust strategy and tactics as needed. In a crisis, this is even more crucial.

When Alan Mulally arrived as President and CEO of Ford Motor Company in 2006, Ford was facing an existential crisis. While many leaders would have been repelled by such a grave challenge, Mulally was compelled to leave his executive position at Boeing and join Ford for that exact reason: the chance to resurrect an iconic American business.

Mulally was a standout leader at Boeing, serving as the CEO of the commercial airplanes division and leading the development of the Boeing 777 — the most profitable aircraft in the company’s history. He also helped shepherd the company through the September 11 crisis with a transparent, team-based leadership approach. Even compared to that experience, however, Ford presented a unique leadership challenge.

I recently heard Mulally describe one of his first leadership team meetings at Ford. Everyone came prepared with their updates and reported an overwhelming number of “green light,” or on-track, initiatives. However, it was clear these updates did not align with reality. Even though Ford was on pace to lose $17 billion dollars in 2006, Mulally’s key executives were signaling that everything was going according to plan. This could only have been true if the plan was to lose a record amount of money.

Mulally quickly realized Ford’s prior leadership created an environment and culture where executives felt unsafe sharing bad news or potential problems. As a result, the management team was not highlighting critical issues or bringing them to the table for leadership to solve. Ford’s management was living in a world of ignorant bliss exacerbated by a lack of trust and accountability.

Mulally set a clear expectation for his team that he valued transparency first and foremost. He wanted managers to highlight potential problems—red and yellow lights, rather than green—so that Ford could tackle issues and blind spots openly.

Slowly, but surely, Mulally’s team came to meetings with less than stellar reports and leadership began to have a more accurate picture of the company’s problems. Getting this clarity was crucial to Mulally’s larger plan to resurrect the company based on clear vision and goals.

Ironically, as Mulally used organizational openness to revitalize Ford, a regression in transparency at his previous employer, Boeing, now has the company embroiled in a crisis. Even before COVID-19 began, Boeing was struggling from the fallout of their disastrous 737-MAX launch, with massive financial implications.

A key responsibility for every leader is to create an environment of psychological safety and trust, empowering their team to bring problems to the surface for analysis and debate and ensuring that all ideas can be heard without retribution or denigration. While hiding or downplaying problems makes for more harmonious management meetings, doing so leads to catastrophic failure in the long-run.

This is truer than ever today. Even the most successful businesses are facing significant challenges, and company dashboards today should be filled with red and yellow lights to highlight and face those problems. Similarly, leaders need to encourage new ideas and perspectives to be evaluated and debated, not dismissed. Ignoring problems and only running meetings where everybody agrees with each other is a recipe for disaster.

With leadership, we reap what we sow. If you don’t give your team a safe environment to challenge each other and highlight potential problems, those issues will inevitably sink you—without warning.

“Show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome.” – Charlie Munger

Contributed to Branding Strategy Insider by: Robert Glazer, Founder & CEO, Acceleration Partners

At The Blake Project we are helping clients from around the world, in all stages of development, redefine and articulate what makes them competitive at critical moments of change through online strategy workshops. Please email us for more.

Branding Strategy Insider is a service of The Blake Project: A strategic brand consultancy specializing in Brand Research, Brand Strategy, Brand Growth and Brand Education

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[ailleurs-l4s]

Confinement JOUR 26 et JOUR 27 (JOUR 34 et JOUR 35) - Lou

Traverser le monde Mardi matin, à 8h40, en quittant le 55b Scarborough Terrace, Mount Victoria, j’ai la désagréable sensation d’être littéralement arrachée à la Nouvelle Zélande. Dans le fond, c’est assez irrationnel, car je ne suis dans le pays que depuis le 10 janvier 2020 - mais l’attachement à un lieu, à une personne est-il réellement proportionnel au temps passé à cet endroit ou avec elle ? - et j’attribue cette perception à la rapidité avec laquelle tout s’est enchaîné depuis vendredi dernier, jour où nous avons signifié à l’Ambassade notre intérêt pour le dernier vol de rapatriement et où nous avons appris, quelques heures après, que nous en serions. Dire que nous espérions presque une réponse négative ne serait pas entièrement loin de la vérité… Ce matin, jeudi 23 avril, alors que je peaufine, depuis mon bureau, chez moi, ce texte maladroitement griffonné dans l’avion, je peux néanmoins affirmer que c’était mieux ainsi. Mais, minute papillon. Retournons à Wellington encore quelques instants… Le taxi collectif arrive avec les 5 minutes d’avance potentielles annoncées lors de la réservation en ligne. Nous avons beau avoir mis le réveil tôt pour avoir le temps de tout finaliser sans nous presser, les dernières minutes ressemblent toujours à un champ de bataille ! Tout se passe donc très vite, nous chargeons nous-mêmes nos sacs dans la remorque avec 5 minutes d’avance, nous nous engouffrons dans le minibus vide, nous partons. En deux secondes, la maison a disparu. Les ruptures les plus franches sont-elles moins douloureuses ? Alors que je suis dans le dernier round de ce vol quasi interminable qui nous ramène à la maison, je revois l’olivier, au fond, au coin de la cour, celui-là même dont les branches, agitées par un vent fort, nous avait réveillées en pleine nuit il y a quelques jours. Quelle drôle de place tout de même pour un olivier ! En même temps, quel bonheur de l’avoir eu à nos côtés ces quelques semaines. Nous filons directement à l’aéroport sans récupérer qui que ce soit d’autre en chemin. Simplement parce qu’il n’y a plus de vol au départ de Wellington ou si peu. Le trajet dure moins de 15 minutes, 15 minutes aussi douloureuses qu’emplies de gratitude à l’égard de cette ville que nous avons tant aimée et qui nous a tant donné en un petit mois, même en y étant confinées. En particulier, une sérénité et un sentiment de sécurité extrêmement précieux dans le contexte chaotique dans lequel est actuellement plongé le monde. Forcément, cette situation exceptionnelle exacerbe les impressions. Le chauffeur nous dépose devant la porte des Départs. Le parking est complètement vide. Il n’y a personne. Quatre, cinq personnes, tout au plus, qui prennent certainement le même vol intérieur que nous. « Bon retour » nous lance-t-il, avant de disparaître. Pour entrer dans l’aéroport, il nous faut montrer patte blanche aux deux dames masquées-gantées postées juste derrière les portes et prouver qu’un vol international nous attend quelque part. « You are with the Embassy? » « Yes! » « You can go. » C’est étrange, un aéroport vide. Cela n’a pas de sens. Nous récupérons notre carte d’embarquement, déposons nos sacs et allons patienter dans le hall, sous la protection de deux immenses aigles tout droits sortis des studios WETA et de la mythologie du Seigneur des Anneaux (que nous n’aurons finalement pas regardée). Nous sommes 26 dans ce Bombardier Q300 à hélices pouvant en accueillir le double. Pour respecter la distance de sécurité interpersonnelle de 2 m imposée par le gouvernement, seuls les sièges côté hublot sont occupés. Autant dire que les places étaient chères et que nous avons été bien inspirées de prendre nos billets avant d’avoir la réponse de l’Ambassade. D’ailleurs, entre le matin et le soir, leur prix avait doublé… L’aéroport de Wellington se trouve dans un quartier périphérique de la ville. Il fait beau quand nous quittons la terre ferme. La baie et ses collines habitées s’offrent à notre regard une dernière fois alors que le pilote fait une boucle au dessus de la ville pour s’orienter dans la bonne direction. Quelques minutes seulement après le décollage, nous longeons déjà la côte Est de l’Île du Sud. Au loin, à l’horizon en regardant vers l’Ouest, les Alpes, qui traversent toute l’île dans le sens de la longueur, sont recouvertes d’un manteau neigeux. Quelle splendeur ! D’en haut, je refais une partie de la route parcourue en février en voiture. Là, la péninsule de Kaikoura, ici, l’embouchure du fleuve Hurunui, là, la péninsule de Banks où est tapie Akaroa, le pier de New Brighton et les rues en quadrillage de Christchurch, la ville plate… Je me souviens qu’à l’aller, en janvier, je n’avais pas été aussi impressionnée par ce relief de la côte Est ; je l’avais trouvé bien plus sec et aride que je ne le présumais. C’est étrange comme les perceptions changent selon le point de vue et l’expérience. Récupération des bagages, l’aéroport de Christchurch est vide. Nous sommes invités à en sortir le temps d’être autorisés à y re-rentrer à 13h. Il est 11h30. Il y a déjà des grappes de Français dehors. Certains se connaissent. D’autres arrivent en taxi, en voiture, en van. Par chance, le soleil est au rendez-vous. Et finalement, nous nous mettons en rang dès 12h. Certains ont des masques, d’autres pas. Les 2m de sécurité ne sont globalement pas respectés. A nouveau, pour pouvoir entrer dans l’aéroport, nous devons présenter la lettre – non nominative – de l’Ambassade disant, à qui de droit, que nous sommes inscrites sur le vol de 5 pm pour Paris le 21 avril, puis nos passeports – « oh, you’ve got long hair now! » –, puis une autre attestation prouvant que nous sommes bien celles à qui sont destinées les deux places. « You can go. » Hormis un vol intérieur vers Auckland dans l’après-midi et un autre vers Chatham Island, l’aéroport ne semble être ouvert que pour nous. Heureusement car nous prenons beaucoup de place ! L’atmosphère est un peu particulière. Très calme cependant. Nous nous glissons dans la longue queue déjà formée des candidats au voyage. Trois personnes de l’Ambassade – reconnaissable grâce à leur gilet jaune fluo au dos duquel est agrafée une feuille siglée de l’Ambassade de France – passent dans les rangs pour distribuer divers documents à compléter avant de partir, puis vérifier qu’ils sont bien remplis, en particulier, que les adresses que nous donnons sont bien celles inscrites sur nos passeports. Nous ne savons pas si cela signifie, par exemple, qu’il est impossible d’aller confiner ailleurs que chez soi… Mais il semblerait que ce soit plus notre adresse fiscale qui les intéresse. Au bout de ce premier circuit, nous nous arrêtons devant deux personnes assises derrière une table à côté de laquelle trône un drapeau français. Distance de sécurité oblige, nous tendons nos passeports au monsieur tandis que la dame raye nos noms sur la liste des passagers. Il y a a priori des personnes sur liste d’attente, attendant probablement à l’extérieur de l’aéroport en espérant des désistements de dernière minute. Quel stress ce doit être ! Puis nous donnons notre déclaration sur l’honneur attestant que nous paierons les 850 € du vol au Trésor Public avant le 1er juillet, sachant que le vol, affrété par Qatar Airways, est aussi subventionné par l’état français – à quelle hauteur, nous ne le savons pas. Dernière étape avant de pouvoir nous délester de nos bagages : quatre femmes travaillant à l’aéroport distribuent les précieux sésames, à savoir nos cartes d’embarquement. Nous en avons trois chacune, une pour le vol Christchurch – Perth, une pour le Perth – Doha et enfin une pour le Doha – Paris. Trois cartes mais nous allons bien rester dans le même avion, les deux arrêts prévus étant des escales techniques – ravitaillement en kérosène et en repas – et de changement d’équipage. C’est à ce moment que nous découvrons que les placements ont été faits par ordre alphabétique et non par groupe de personnes voyageant ensemble, alors même que c’est une information dont disposait l’Ambassade. L’une est en tête de l’avion quand l’autre est en queue… Mais, il est hors de question de faire ce vol de 28h chacune de son côté. Tout le monde est dans le même cas, mêmes les familles avec enfants, placés à côté d’un des deux parents quand ils ne sont pas mariés. C’était sûrement plus pratique à organiser ainsi mais cela génère un petit pincement à l’heure où tout est déjà un peu noué et promet un beau jeu de chaises musicales à l’embarquement… Plus légères de 12 et 13 kg, nous passons la sécurité puis l’immigration. Il n’y aura finalement aucune trace de notre séjour en Nouvelle Zélande sur notre passeport… A l’aller, nous les avions juste scannés et à la sortie, si c’est bien une personne en chair et en os qui assure les vérifications, elle se contente de le scanner à nouveau. Quelle tristesse… Maintenant, il n’y a plus qu’à attendre. Nous nous étalons sur les divers halls d’embarquement de l’aéroport. Ce qui, pour le Boeing 777 que nous allons investir, représente tout de même quasi 500 personnes. Il n’y aura donc pas de distanciation sociale dans cet avion là. Les partants ? A première vue, en grande majorité, de jeunes pvtistes, les aînés ayant sans doute été déjà rapatriés. Coralie en repère un arborant un T-Shirt estampillé « In tartiflette we trust ». « En voilà un qui annonce la couleur ! » Il est 16h30 passés quand débute l’embarquement zone par zone. Le fond de l’avion en premier. Coralie s’insère dans la queue déjà formée. Sa mission, négocier avec son / sa voisin/e un changement de place pour que nous puissions voyager ensemble. Elle se tourne vers le gars à côté d’elle, jette un œil à sa place ! Bingo, c’est son voisin théorique ! Quelle drôle de coïncidence ! Et qui plus est, c’est monsieur Tartiflette ! What a flair ! Il accepte volontiers d’autant qu’il voyage seul et se récupère une place avec plus d’espace, détail de taille quand on s’apprêter à passer 28h dans un espace aussi confiné qu’un avion. Tout le monde s’installe, les migrations se multiplient, très sagement. Il fait presque nuit quand l’avion décolle de Christchurch et file vers sa première destination intermédiaire, Perth, sur la côte Ouest de l’Australie. C’est parti pour retraverser la planète dans l’autre sens ! Alors que la moitié de la planète est confinée, que nous convergeons vers un pays - le nôtre accessoirement - où les habitants - bientôt nous - ne sont autorisés à se déplacer que dans un rayon d’un kilomètre une fois par jour, la perspective d’en parcourir 20 000 d’un coup est vertigineuse ! Dernier goodbye aux sommets enneigés des Alpes dépassant à peine de la couche nuageuse arrivée avec la nuit tombante. Vénus est déjà dans le ciel, telle un phare que nous ne cherchons pas à approcher, ou un trait d’union entre ce pays que nous quittons et celui que nous rejoignons. « C’est étrange d’être rapatrié dans un pays qui est moins sûr que celui que l’on quitte » relève Coralie. Très juste ! C’est en effet l’inverse en général. Mais nous ne nous attardons pas plus que cela sur cette étrangeté. Une de plus dans un océan de bizarreries. L’avion est plein à craquer. Une personne sur deux porte un masque, fait à la main ou acheté, parfois un foulard. Ce qui n’empêche pas de l’enlever, de le glisser sur le menton, de se ronger les ongles, de le trifouiller… Bref, encore quelques heures pour s'y faire et le porter sans saborder ses efforts. Nous avons aussi des masques mais n’avons prévu de les mettre qu’en sortant de l’avion, arrivées à Paris. Notre raisonnement étant que le virus ne circulant pas en Nouvelle Zélande et que toute personne avec des symptômes du virus étant interdite de vol, il y a peu de chance que quelqu’un soit contaminé ci. Peu ne voulant pas dire pas, nous nous lavons et nous désinfectons les mains plus que de raison. Nous arrivons à Perth en pleine nuit. Ravitaillement, changement d’équipage. Comme prévu, nous ne sommes pas autorisés à sortir. A peine pouvons-nous nous dégourdir les jambes. C’est amusant car les messages délivrés à l’arrivée en Australie ne sont pas adaptés au caractère exceptionnel de ce vol alors même qu’une vraie personne les transmet et sait pertinemment qu’il s’agit d’un vol de rapatriement. Température extérieure, météo du jour alors que cela n’a strictement aucune importance. Même chose à Doha avec un étonnant « Have a nice stay in Doha ! ». Le séjour le plus rapide de l’histoire du tourisme ! Depuis notre départ de Christchurch, en plus de remonter en latitude, nous remontons également le temps. Notre nuit semble éternelle, elle s’écoule depuis 20h quand le jour finit par se lever à Doha, à 4h du matin. La cité restera cependant dans la brume de chaleur matinale. Seule chose que nous voyons, comme à Christchurch, comme à Perth, les rangées d’avions des compagnies nationales alignés sur le tarmac et privés de vol jusqu’à nouvel ordre. C’est étrange, ce monde arrêté net. Dernière « ligne droite », plus que 6h45 de vol, après celui de 6h ou un peu plus, et l’autre de 11, ou un peu plus. Dire que c’est un long voyage est un euphémisme… Nous évitons de penser, je crois. Mais tout se passe bien, la filmothèque est bien fournie. Nous enchaînons les films, les repas, les interludes de sommeil, les bouts de discussion… Beaucoup ont un train à prendre dans la journée pour aller en province. Certains seront récupérés par un parent à qui il a fallu envoyer une copie des cartes d’embarquement avant de partir pour justifier le déplacement… Le marathon n’est pas encore terminé. Le commandant de bord finit par annoncer que nous entamons la descente vers Paris Charles de Gaulle et que nous devrions atterrir dans 20 minutes. Voilà, c’est bientôt fini. Nous ne savons pas réellement où nous allons arriver - pas géographiquement bien sûr - mais nous arrivons. Je vois la Tour Eiffel, les tours de La Défense, le Palais de justice de Porte de Clichy, la Seine, les grandes avenues de la capitale. D’en haut, tout semble absolument normal. Dernières secondes en suspension. Touchdown ! Applaudissements nourris. Un gars se hasarde à lâcher « Dépression ! », provoquant l’hilarité dans la cabine… Il fait beau, il fait chaud, c’est toujours bon à prendre. Tout le monde rallume son téléphone pour annoncer à la Terre entière, que, ça y est, nous venons de nous poser. Nous sommes tous attendus. Les réponses affluent rapidement, c’est un moment, somme toute, plutôt heureux. Allez hop, nous enfilons nos masques. En sortant de l’avion, de l’autre côté d’une vitre, patientent des gens en partance pour le Canada. Ils sont plusieurs à porter une sur-tenue de peintre ou de bricolage, et un masque. C’est assez impressionnant. Bienvenue au pays… Le passage de la douane se fait rapidement. Même masqués. On nous fournit une attestation de retour à domicile à remplir et à présenter, avec nos cartes d’embarquement, en cas de contrôle policier. Tout cela est finalement très administratif, factuel. Plus que les bagages à récupérer et nous pourrons y aller. Une dernière étape qui nécessite cependant la plus grande attention malgré les 36 heures de voyage que nous venons d’enchaîner car 85% des bagages sont des sacs à dos, et parmi ceux là, plus de la moitié sont des Quetchua, et au sein de cette moitié, nous sommes nombreux à avoir exactement les mêmes dans les mêmes couleurs ! Voilà, nous sommes sorties. Personne pour accueillir qui que ce soit, c’est vide, c’est un peu triste, c’est comme ça. Pour la première fois de notre vie de voyageuses, nous optons pour un taxi afin de rentrer plus rapidement chez nous. Sur le trajet, essentiellement de l’autoroute même si la fin se fait en ville et nous étonne presque car il y a finalement pas mal de personnes dehors, nous échangeons quelques mots sur la situation, l’impact sur son quotidien de chauffeur - peu de courses sur Paris, restent les rares vols arrivant, parfois vides, à Roissy -, les décisions prises par le gouvernement, la météo…, et nous voilà au pied de notre immeuble. Soulagement. Quand nous ouvrons la porte de notre appartement, les couleurs et le soleil nous accueillent. Nous sommes chez nous, nous sommes bien, nous sommes là où nous devions être. Nous penserons plus tard. Nous sortirons plus tard. A 20h, les fenêtres ouvertes, nous entendons des gens applaudir, d’autres klaxonner en voiture. Il nous faut quelques secondes pour connecter les informations entre elles. Et quelques autres encore pour aller nous joindre au groupe, même si, nous n’étions pas là. C’est émouvant. La suite va pouvoir commencer… Presqu'île de Kaikoura, Ile du sud, Nouvelle Zélande

© Lou Camino | Hans Lucas

[rightsinexile]

Accountability needed for killings of Burundian exiles in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Thijs Van Laer writes from Kampala, Uganda. Originally published by International Refugee Rights Initiative on 9 September 17.

Congolese authorities must hold to account those responsible for the killing of dozens of Burundian asylum seekers and refugees, International Refugee Rights Initiative (IRRI) said today. According to MONUSCO, on 15 September, Congolese government security forces killed at least 36 and injured over 100 Burundians in Kamanyola (South Kivu province), during demonstrations by Burundians against threatened expulsions.

“The Congolese authorities must ensure that their investigation, into what appears to be a seriously disproportionate use of force by its security services, is independent and credible and they should prosecute those responsible,” said Thijs Van Laer, programme manager at IRRI. “MONUSCO and UNHCR should be involved in such an investigation and must work with the government to improve the security situation of Burundian refugees and asylum seekers in DRC.”

Burundian asylum seekers who witnessed the events and Congolese civil society who visited the locality described to IRRI the disproportionate use of force by the Congolese police and military. The security services reportedly opened fire after a group of Burundians went to the local office of the Congolese intelligence agency (Agence Nationale de Renseignement, ANR) to seek answers regarding the ongoing detention of four of them for possessing machetes and clubs. “The police said they were rebels and that they had arms. That was not true," a Burundian asylum seeker who witnessed the events told IRRI.

He and other Burundians in Kamanyola feared the four would be sent back to Burundi and currently their whereabouts are unknown. These concerns come amidst a wider fear of forced returns from DRC given that the situation in Burundi remains unpredictable. A Congolese army spokesperson confirmed such intentions, saying: “We want to drive them out of the country, which is to their own country, to Burundi.” A recent UN commission of inquiry reported that there are “reasonable grounds to believe that crimes against humanity have been committed in Burundi since April 2015.”

As the situation on Friday deteriorated, some protesters started throwing stones at police officers, who fired warning shots and requested military reinforcement. An elderly Burundian asylum seeker said: “A police officer started beating some of us. They then shot in the air and afterwards [the military] started shooting at people, slaughtering them. […] I only survived because God protected me. They could have killed us all.” MONUSCO stated that after a Congolese soldier was killed, “Congolese defense and security forces allegedly responded through indiscriminate firing on the protesters.” According to multiple sources, at least 36 Burundians were killed and more than 110 were wounded, some seriously. At least one security officer was killed by a stone and others were wounded.

Following the events, many Burundians sought safety at a MONUSCO base less than a kilometre away from the site, where many still reside without sufficient humanitarian assistance. MONUSCO did not intervene during the massacre, despite its mandate to protect civilians, but did organise the evacuation of the wounded, including to Bukavu and Goma. It has called upon the Congolese authorities to use force only as the last resort and to “swiftly open legal actions.” UNHCR and the Burundian minister of external relations have called for an investigation into the events. The Congolese government, qualifying the Burundians as an armed group, has announced the opening of such an investigation.

While the majority of the 43,769 Burundian refugees in DRC live in an overcrowded refugee camp, over 2,000 Burundians in Kamanyola live among the Congolese community. The majority of them arrived in April 2015, prompted by the controversy following president Pierre Nkurunziza’s bid for a third presidential term. Some have already obtained refugee status, while others were in the process of doing so.

In August, IRRI published a report based on research with Burundian refugees and asylum seekers in Uganda. Most arrived in Uganda between March and June 2017, fleeing because of ongoing abuses committed by Imbonerakure, a youth group linked to the party in power, or because of killings or disappearances of their family members. Some came to Uganda after experiencing difficulties in neighbouring countries such as Tanzania and DRC. In recent weeks, scores of Burundians have returned from Tanzania, with many more signed up for return.

“Burundi’s neighbouring countries, including DRC, are obliged, under international law, to shield those fleeing human rights abuses in Burundi from further violence in their host country,” Van Laer said. “Attempts to forcibly return refugees are not only illegal, but might also exacerbate tensions in Burundi.”

For further information: Thijs Van Laer (in Uganda) or +256 777 188 962 (English, French, Dutch).

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[a380flightdeck]

Is the Airbus A380 coming of age?

- Cheap oil exacerbates divergence in passenger & cargo markets growth - When full, 509-seat A380 has 16.8% lower block fuel burn per seat against 264-seat 777-300ER - 83% full A380 burns similar fuel per seat against a full 777-300ER - On payload-tonne basis, 777-300ER is ~25% more fuel efficient than A380 - In 2012, each 1% of oil price change affected route profitability by 2%; 2016: 0.56% - 1.7% widebody up-gauging mainly done via denser configurations - 37.5% of total A330 fleet leased, 20.6% 777 & 16.6% A380 - Lessors should remove refitting cost penalty to boost A380 appeal - Excluding Amedeo, only 11% of total A380 fleet is leased

On the surface, the 75% slump in oil prices since July 2014 has enabled Airbus Group SE to improve the relative competitiveness of its A380 superjumbo, while postponing the service entry date of an upgrade including equipping the people-mover with a next-generation engine to as late as 2024 or 2025.

Yet the broader implications of the oil price collapse go far beyond, prompting changes in the air travel demand mix, which tilt the balance in favour of price-sensitive leisure travellers as carriers slash airfares to grab a bigger market share and stimulate further growth. At the same time, the upcoming influx of belly cargo capacity brought on by the deliveries of Boeing 787, 777X and the Airbus A350, means the current cargo doldrum symbolises a paradigm shift that is unlikely to reverse course.

This analysis examines the effects of these cost and demand driver changes, and whether their confluence could spur new A380 sales, should these favourable trends be sustained.

Attractive seat economics when filled

The superjumbo received a crucial shot in the arm in December last year when Japan’s All Nippon Airways (ANA) ordered 3 new-built examples in return of the favour Airbus did when the French plane-maker, a major creditor of the bankrupt Skymark Airlines, had supported ANA’s turnaround bid at the last minute and scuppered Delta Air Lines’s effort to acquire a roughly 20% stake in the beleaguered carrier, in spite of ANA’s public dismissal of the notion.

Immediate focus is placed on ANA’s plan to deploy the A380 on the Tokyo Narita-Honolulu route from 2018 onwards, where the Star Alliance carrier lags its arch-rival Japan Airlines (JAL) in seat share at 19% against the latter’s 35%, with an over 90% load factor achieved in the overall Tokyo-Hawaii market. JAL operates 4 times daily on the route, deploying the 312-seat 2-class Boeing 777-200ERs on a flight, the 199-seat 2-class 767-300ERs “Sky Suite 767” (SS6) on two flights and the remaining flight on a 186-seat 2-class 787-8 Dreamliner.

ANA, on the other hand, flies twice-daily using the Air Japan 214-seat 767-300ERs. As the figures show, the 428 daily seats operated by ANA on the route is half that of JAL’s 896 seats and two daily A380 flights in a configuration of around 500 seats would enable ANA to take the lead back easily.

The A380 is particularly well-suited on the route given its seat economics, providing room for the carrier to cope with any competitive response from JAL, on which it used to fly the 2-class 447-seat Boeing 747-400 configured with 55 Business and 392 Economy seats. On the other hand, as Tokyo Haneda has a daytime operational ban on the superjumbo between 0600 and 2300, the A380 will have little impact on the Tokyo Haneda-Honolulu route, where both JAL and ANA fly once daily using the 2-class 777-200ER and 767-300ER, respectively.

Most importantly, while the A380’s unique characteristic of having a superb seat economics when filled is nothing new, as International Airlines Group (IAG) chief executive Willie Walsh remarked, “its unit costs, if you can fill the plane, are very attractive”; little research has been done to illustrate the point and to its critics, the superjumbo’s inflexibility and the adverse impact of a yield dilution in an effort to fill the superjumbo up.

In a modelled ANA operation more representative of its normal network deployment, the lucrative Tokyo Narita-Los Angeles route is being looked at, where 4-class offerings with a premium economy product are featured prominently. ANA flies a daily flight using the 4-class 264-seat 777-300ER revamped with 10-abreast economy seats, alongside its joint venture (JV) partner United Airlines’s 252-seat 787-9 daily flight. JAL and its partner American Airlines (AA) operate a daily 777-300ER flight in a 244-seat 4-class and 310-seat 3-class configurations, respectively. The ANA/United and JAL/American alliances divide up the route pretty evenly at 35.61% and 38.23% seat shares, respectively, with the remainder held by Singapore Airlines’s daily 4-class 379-seat A380 flight featuring an all-Business upper deck.

On the return sector with 56 knots en-route headwind, a fully-laden A380 in a hypothetical 4-class 509-seat configuration – 8 First Class, 78 Business, 52 Premium Economy and 371 Economy seats and 8 tonnes of belly cargo can have a 16.80% lower block fuel burn per seat of 3.4327 litres (L) of fuel per passenger per 100 kilometres (km), compared to the 4.1257L used by ANA’s 4-class 10-abreast 777-300ER. This per-seat fuel efficiency stems from the A380 supplying 92.20% more capacity or available seat kilometres (ASKs), but only using 59.91% more trip fuel at 137.75 tonnes against the 777-300ER’s 86.14t. The A380’s faster long-range cruise (LRC) speed at Mach 0.85, albeit in reality it is often considerably higher, leads to an 18 minutes shorter block time and a cruise fuel burn of only 71.20% higher at 111.36t versus the 777-300ER’s 65.05t.

As the 777-300ER is much smaller and hence easier to fill up, any realistic aircraft evaluation comparing the two should take into account a correspondingly lower load factor assumption for the A380. In doing so, the sensitivity of the A380 to load factor could be discerned from a per-seat block fuel burn perspective. A load factor equal to 83% would yield a per-seat block fuel burn of 4.136L per passenger per 100km, and any lower figure would tilt the balance in favour of the “Big Twin”.

Reduced emphasis on fuel saving helps A380 business case

Admittedly, the actual make-or-break load factor figure could be somewhat lower, since the A380’s luxurious cabin outfit, such as Etihad Airways’s US$32,000 “The Residence” complete with a butler and a dedicated shower facility that is proving more popular than originally anticipated, as well as Qatar Airways’s “revolutionary” New Business Class currently under development, will have a positive accretive effect on yields.

Nevertheless Boeing and its proponents are likely to point to the 83% figure on per-seat fuel burn as a reflection on the inflexibility of the A380, whose use is limited to trunk routes where frequencies do not have an outsized importance in an expansive global network, as IAG chief executive Willie Walsh alluded to. As unit cost increases when the A380 is not fully filled, as fewer passengers share the fixed costs such as capital costs, the US$1.4 million 3C base check conducted every 6 years and the 22 flight attendants versus just 16 on the 777-300ER, the break-even load factor (BELF = Cost per ASK/yield) would inevitably rise faster than the higher yield could compensate for.

In addition, Boeing often touts the cargo-hauling capability of the 777-300ER and that of its successor, the 777-9. At 5,200ft³, the -300ER’s revenue cargo volume out of a 7,120ft³ total cargo volume means it is able to carry 23 tonnes of belly cargo even after fully loading passengers’ luggage. This is in stark contrast to the A380’s total cargo volume of 5,875ft³ and a revenue cargo volume of 2,995ft³, enabling it to only ferry 8 tonnes of belly cargo. In fact, on a per payload-tonne basis, the 777-300ER burns 2,148.28L of fuel, a whopping 24.94% more efficient than the A380’s 2,861.98L per payload-tonne, underlining the -300ER’s mini-freighter credentials.

Yet the changing dynamics in the marketplace are beginning to work in the A380’s favour, and new sales could be spurred should they prove to be a longer-term phenomenon.

First and foremost, the low oil price means the route profitability is not as susceptible to the former’s fluctuation as it used to be. Where Airbus found in 2012 that a 1% change in oil price will impact a route’s profitability by 2%, today’s Singapore jet kerosene price of just US$37.54 per barrel, down from around US$135 per barrel in July 2012, yields a sensitivity figure of just 0.56%. This means the premium airlines place on the 777-9, which promises a further 20% reduction in block fuel burn per seat compared to a 777-300ER and a 15% lower cash operating cost (COC), and in natural extension to the A380 given their identical unit costs at present, is drastically reduced.

Indeed, it deserves to be asked whether the airline industry is facing a new normal with sustained low oil price for an extended period of time, or “lower for longer”. Not least there is a 1.8 million barrels per day surplus going into the stockpile, compounded by Iran’s 0.5 million barrels per day production capacity joining the international oil market last week, there are signs that Saudi Arabia’s strategy of driving high-cost shale producers out of business is faltering.

According to the consultancy Wood MacKenzie, the cash cost of US’s shale oil is at US$15 per barrel and even at a price of US$30 per barrel, only 6% of production worldwide fails to cover its average variable costs and faces shutdown. Moreover, the US shale oil industry has been becoming more productive, with a well in the Bakken region originally producing 200 barrels a day in 2011 now producing close to 700 barrels a day, reckons ANZ commodity strategist Victor Thianpiriya.

Airlines favour denser 350-seater, not 777X/A380, for incremental up-gauging

An unintended consequence of the low fuel price is the extra boost provided to the growth in passenger numbers, which increased briskly by 6.55% from 3.327 billion passengers in 2014 to a forecasted 3.545 billion last year, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The growth rate is expected to accelerate further this year to 6.85%, carrying 3.782 billion passengers. Since 2004, passenger number has almost doubled from 1.975 billion passengers, significantly outpacing both the 45.58% growth in number of tonnes of airfreight from 36.2 million to 52.7 million, and the 53.36% growth in the number of flights from 23.8 million to 36.5 million.

Yet it would be unwise to jump on the conclusion that the apparent up-gauging explaining the link between growth in passenger numbers and the considerably slower growth in flight numbers would benefit the A380.

For one thing, the up-gauging appears to be concentrated in the narrowbody market, where Boeing reckons its seat count is growing by 4-5% annually to converge around the 162 seats sweet spot as the larger A321 takes up an increasing proportion of deliveries. The widebody market, on the other hand, the Chicago-based plane-maker says the seat count in this segment is only increasing at a 1.7% per annum pace. This could be proven by taking the weighted average of the seat count growth figures with the 30,630 single-aisle and 10,270 in-service widebody aircraft by 2034, which combined to yield a 3.21% overall up-gauging rate.

This 3.21% overall up-gauging rate plus a 3.34% growth in the number of flights leads to a 6.55% 20-year forecast growth in passenger traffic, which is quite realistic as worldwide passenger traffic grew by 6.0% in 2014 and 6.5% in 2015, accelerating to a 6.7% growth this year. Putting aside the disagreements on the narrowbody up-gauging trend first given the popularity enjoyed by the Airbus A321 and the re-engined A321neo, the above reverse-engineering of long-term traffic forecast nevertheless vindicated the 1.7% up-gauging rate in the widebody market.

Intriguingly, on paper this 1.7% up-gauging rate would call for the development of a 777-9 and a stretched A350-1000, loosely dubbed as the -1100, as in 10 years’ time the average widebody seat count of 297 seats would become 352 seats, the exact 777X configuration in realistic airline use. But the market is deeply divided on whether the “sweet spot” of the widebody market would move up from a 350-seater such as the 777-300ER and A350-1000 that burns 25% less block fuel. On the one hand, while proponents such as Qatar Airways’s vociferous chief executive Akbar Al-Baker said “we would be interested in a stretch of the A350-1000. Airbus has no alternative – to be competitive it will have to do something that is bigger and better than the 777-9X. It would be bigger than the -9X and we believe it will have a superior fuel burn”; the versatility of such a “mini-people mover” remains questionable – AerCap’s chief executive Aengus Kelly lamented in an Aviation Week interview that it “would not be a lessor aircraft” due to a limited operator base.

In fact, airlines worldwide seem to be accommodating more seats into the same 350-seater rather opting for a bigger plane in a push to slash per-seat operating cost, whose trip cost rises at a slower pace than the seat count, thus producing better per-seat economics. From Air France’s 468-seat configuration with 10-abreast economy class at 17-inch seat width, to Air Canada’s 458, Emirates’s 427 and Qatar’s 358, now 75% of total 777 deliveries are made in such a configuration.

For Airbus, relying on the A350-1000 and Spaceflex concept to increase its seat count to 366 seats not only reduces development and production costs, simplifies its assembly line, whilst satisfying most airlines’ demands, this could also eliminate the dilemma where an A350-1100 inevitably cannibalises further A380 sales. Facts that Virgin Atlantic is imminently placing an order for 12 A350-1000s, possibly at the expense of its order for 6 A380s, TAM switching 12 existing A350 orders from the -900 variants to -1000s and Air Caraïbes’ 439-seat 10-abreast A350-1000s illustrate the point further – the “sweet spot” is converging around 350-seaters such as the A350-1000.

Secondary market could alleviate demand gap

Make no mistake, while one day the marketplace may eventually demand the higher-capacity 777-9 and A380, this would only happen when airlines exhaust their primary means to make existing assets more operationally efficient through the adoption of denser configurations. This could take as late as 2034 for the average seat count to reach 416 seats, an around 83% load factor for a 500-seat A380.

Therefore it is best for Airbus to postpone the launch and entry into service (EIS) date of the A380neo, which burns 10-13% less block fuel per seat, as much as possible to wait for some of the up-gauging demand to materialise first, before launching the re-engining programme 5-6 years before EIS. This means an A380neo decision as late as 2018 or 2019, despite calls by Emirates president Sir Tim Clark that “we would like them to get on with it. But for us to have ordered another 100 A380s, believe me if we could at Dubai International Airport, we would”. “We obviously want more than one customer and we’re looking at that in cold blood. This is not going to be an emotional decision. We’re building a plane for customers who want the aircraft and it’ll have to be at a good price,” Airbus Group chief executive Tom Enders said of the A380neo.

During these intervening years, establishing a secondary market for the superjumbo is crucial in alleviating the demand gap. As things currently stand, the A380 lags behind other widebody aircraft in lease penetration. The A380 has 30 in-service leased examples, including Doric, Novus Aviation Management, BBAM over Emirates, ICBC over a China Southern example, with 20 ordered by Amedeo and another 3 by Air Accord. This gives the A380 a 16.61% leased fleet. This figure seems artificially high, as Amedeo has so far failed to place a single aircraft with airlines. Excluding Amedeo, the leased fleet percentage would drop to 11.04%.

This compares to the 20.61% leased 777 fleet and the A330’s 37.52% with 603 aircraft being leased. The 10.30% and 13.57% A350 and 787 figures, while seemingly low, these aircraft programmes are at an early stage in their life-cycles and when many airlines begin to receive their deliveries, sale-and-leaseback (SLB) would be a popular means to line up financings around 6 months in advance.

Improving the A380’s low proportion of leased fleet is important since liquidity declines as aircraft size increases. The average refurbishment and period between consecutive leases is just 28 days, especially on popular single-aisle aircraft that can be quickly redeployed across different markets. Should potential aircraft buyers deem the risk of being unable to resell the aircraft and the search cost being prohibitive, demand in the primary market would be dampened.

So much so that Lehman Brothers wrote in 1998, “the ratings agencies require an 18-month source of liquidity because this is the length of time they feel it will take to market and resell the aircraft in order to maximise value”. While Amedeo has tried to lower the refurbishment cost by standardising the A380’s configuration with an all-Business upper deck, the US$25 million refitting cost penalty faced by Singapore Airlines (SIA) on its 5 early-built A380s is self-defeating. The existence of such a barrier only goes to deter interested potential lessees and threatens to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The removal of the refitting cost penalty would be a step in the right direction in attracting more airlines in the high-volume business, such as Saudi Arabian Airlines on Hajj pilgrimage flights and Turkish Airlines.

A key opportunity has arisen lately with British Airways (BA), whose home base at London Heathrow has long hit full capacity. “We see second-hand A380s as an attractive opportunity. I don’t mind where the aircraft come from. What we’ve said is we’re interested and therefore if there are aircraft available, don’t be afraid to talk to us. We’ve already had some discussions with potential lessors,” International Airlines Group (IAG) chief executive Willie Walsh declared.

A potential feedstock could come from fellow oneworld member Malaysia Airlines Berhad (MAB), whose 6 Rolls-Royce-powered aircraft are built in the 2012-2013 timespan and will be replaced by 4 smaller A350-900s. As the beleaguered carrier seeks its path to return to profitability, it would look to withdraw the A380s from its fleet sooner rather than later. British Airways may even be able to acquire the aircraft, instead of leasing them, if the price is sufficiently low. With United Airlines vacating New York John F. Kennedy airport’s Terminal 7 due to its loss-making Premium Service (p.s.) transcontinental operation there, thereby vacating enough gates to make way for an A380-compatible one, BA does seem to require more A380s for its Blue Ribbon 6-times daily service. 4 of them are currently operated by the refurbished 275-seat 747-400s and the remainder by 224-seat 777-200ERs. A 469-seat A380 will provide 11 more Club World seats, 25 more World Traveller Plus and 158 more World Traveller seats than a refurbished 747-400.

Japan’s ANA now also becomes a prime candidate for leased A380s, given the high fixed cost and investments involved in training and maintenance support. These measures, especially the removal of the US$25 million per aircraft refitting cost penalty, should make the A380’s secondary market more liquid. If any of the challenges above seemed insurmountable, at least Airbus could find solace in its arch-rival Boeing 747-8. With a dwindling backlog of just 20 examples, comprising 4 from now-defunct Transaero and 2 from Nigeria’s Arik Air that are unlikely to be delivered, this prompted the world’s biggest plane-maker to slash the 747 production rate from the current 1.3 per month, to 1 per month in March 2016, then to just 0.5 per month from September onwards. By taking a US$885 million pre-tax charge and US$569 million on a post-tax basis, Boeing is pinning its hope on a 2019 recovery in the cargo market. Even this seems to be a long shot for Boeing, as Seabury reckons a modal shift from air to sea has meant the air tonnage growth is reduced from 7.3% to just 2.6% between 2000 and 2013, which looks set to continue now that the West Coast seaport congestion is resolved. The latest cargo traffic figures showed a 2015 growth of just 2.2%, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The market consensus is for Boeing’s 747 production to end after completing the Air Force One requirement, with investment bank Credit Suisse predicting a 2018 fourth-quarter programme termination.

In conclusion, the oil price collapse has led to a moderately improved appeal for the A380 superjumbo. When fully filled, the A380 can burn up to 16.8% less fuel per seat than a competing 777-300ER depending on mission profiles and configuration settings. But the modest 1.7% widebody up-gauging trend is indicative of airlines’ reliance on using denser configurations over the 350-seater 777-300ER and A350-1000 instead of opting for a physically larger aircraft. This will shift the demand for the 777-9 and A380 further out in timeline.

It takes more than the recent flurry of orders, including Iran Air’s order for 12 examples, to prove that the A380 is finally coming of age.

[erectiledysfunc]

erectile dysfunction women

Contents

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[glenmenlow]

Business Success Requires A Clear View Of Reality

The vast majority of organizations convene some form of leadership team meeting each week. Key members of the company update the management team and the organization’s leader on wins and progress, and also raise concerns about initiatives that are off track, metrics that are stagnating, or other potential problems on the horizon.

As in all leadership settings, it’s crucial for businesses to gather real-time information—both positive and negative—to adjust strategy and tactics as needed. In a crisis, this is even more crucial.

When Alan Mulally arrived as President and CEO of Ford Motor Company in 2006, Ford was facing an existential crisis. While many leaders would have been repelled by such a grave challenge, Mulally was compelled to leave his executive position at Boeing and join Ford for that exact reason: the chance to resurrect an iconic American business.

Mulally was a standout leader at Boeing, serving as the CEO of the commercial airplanes division and leading the development of the Boeing 777 — the most profitable aircraft in the company’s history. He also helped shepherd the company through the September 11 crisis with a transparent, team-based leadership approach. Even compared to that experience, however, Ford presented a unique leadership challenge.

I recently heard Mulally describe one of his first leadership team meetings at Ford. Everyone came prepared with their updates and reported an overwhelming number of “green light,” or on-track, initiatives. However, it was clear these updates did not align with reality. Even though Ford was on pace to lose $17 billion dollars in 2006, Mulally’s key executives were signaling that everything was going according to plan. This could only have been true if the plan was to lose a record amount of money.

Mulally quickly realized Ford’s prior leadership created an environment and culture where executives felt unsafe sharing bad news or potential problems. As a result, the management team was not highlighting critical issues or bringing them to the table for leadership to solve. Ford’s management was living in a world of ignorant bliss exacerbated by a lack of trust and accountability.

Mulally set a clear expectation for his team that he valued transparency first and foremost. He wanted managers to highlight potential problems—red and yellow lights, rather than green—so that Ford could tackle issues and blind spots openly.

Slowly, but surely, Mulally’s team came to meetings with less than stellar reports and leadership began to have a more accurate picture of the company’s problems. Getting this clarity was crucial to Mulally’s larger plan to resurrect the company based on clear vision and goals.

Ironically, as Mulally used organizational openness to revitalize Ford, a regression in transparency at his previous employer, Boeing, now has the company embroiled in a crisis. Even before COVID-19 began, Boeing was struggling from the fallout of their disastrous 737-MAX launch, with massive financial implications.

A key responsibility for every leader is to create an environment of psychological safety and trust, empowering their team to bring problems to the surface for analysis and debate and ensuring that all ideas can be heard without retribution or denigration. While hiding or downplaying problems makes for more harmonious management meetings, doing so leads to catastrophic failure in the long-run.

This is truer than ever today. Even the most successful businesses are facing significant challenges, and company dashboards today should be filled with red and yellow lights to highlight and face those problems. Similarly, leaders need to encourage new ideas and perspectives to be evaluated and debated, not dismissed. Ignoring problems and only running meetings where everybody agrees with each other is a recipe for disaster.

With leadership, we reap what we sow. If you don’t give your team a safe environment to challenge each other and highlight potential problems, those issues will inevitably sink you—without warning.

“Show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome.” – Charlie Munger

Contributed to Branding Strategy Insider by: Robert Glazer, Founder & CEO, Acceleration Partners

At The Blake Project we are helping clients from around the world, in all stages of development, redefine and articulate what makes them competitive at critical moments of change through online strategy workshops. Please email us for more.

Branding Strategy Insider is a service of The Blake Project: A strategic brand consultancy specializing in Brand Research, Brand Strategy, Brand Growth and Brand Education

FREE Publications And Resources For Marketers

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Business Success Requires A Clear View Of Reality

The vast majority of organizations convene some form of leadership team meeting each week. Key members of the company update the management team and the organization’s leader on wins and progress, and also raise concerns about initiatives that are off track, metrics that are stagnating, or other potential problems on the horizon.

As in all leadership settings, it’s crucial for businesses to gather real-time information—both positive and negative—to adjust strategy and tactics as needed. In a crisis, this is even more crucial.

When Alan Mulally arrived as President and CEO of Ford Motor Company in 2006, Ford was facing an existential crisis. While many leaders would have been repelled by such a grave challenge, Mulally was compelled to leave his executive position at Boeing and join Ford for that exact reason: the chance to resurrect an iconic American business.

Mulally was a standout leader at Boeing, serving as the CEO of the commercial airplanes division and leading the development of the Boeing 777 — the most profitable aircraft in the company’s history. He also helped shepherd the company through the September 11 crisis with a transparent, team-based leadership approach. Even compared to that experience, however, Ford presented a unique leadership challenge.

I recently heard Mulally describe one of his first leadership team meetings at Ford. Everyone came prepared with their updates and reported an overwhelming number of “green light,” or on-track, initiatives. However, it was clear these updates did not align with reality. Even though Ford was on pace to lose $17 billion dollars in 2006, Mulally’s key executives were signaling that everything was going according to plan. This could only have been true if the plan was to lose a record amount of money.

Mulally quickly realized Ford’s prior leadership created an environment and culture where executives felt unsafe sharing bad news or potential problems. As a result, the management team was not highlighting critical issues or bringing them to the table for leadership to solve. Ford’s management was living in a world of ignorant bliss exacerbated by a lack of trust and accountability.

Mulally set a clear expectation for his team that he valued transparency first and foremost. He wanted managers to highlight potential problems—red and yellow lights, rather than green—so that Ford could tackle issues and blind spots openly.

Slowly, but surely, Mulally’s team came to meetings with less than stellar reports and leadership began to have a more accurate picture of the company’s problems. Getting this clarity was crucial to Mulally’s larger plan to resurrect the company based on clear vision and goals.

Ironically, as Mulally used organizational openness to revitalize Ford, a regression in transparency at his previous employer, Boeing, now has the company embroiled in a crisis. Even before COVID-19 began, Boeing was struggling from the fallout of their disastrous 737-MAX launch, with massive financial implications.

A key responsibility for every leader is to create an environment of psychological safety and trust, empowering their team to bring problems to the surface for analysis and debate and ensuring that all ideas can be heard without retribution or denigration. While hiding or downplaying problems makes for more harmonious management meetings, doing so leads to catastrophic failure in the long-run.

This is truer than ever today. Even the most successful businesses are facing significant challenges, and company dashboards today should be filled with red and yellow lights to highlight and face those problems. Similarly, leaders need to encourage new ideas and perspectives to be evaluated and debated, not dismissed. Ignoring problems and only running meetings where everybody agrees with each other is a recipe for disaster.

With leadership, we reap what we sow. If you don’t give your team a safe environment to challenge each other and highlight potential problems, those issues will inevitably sink you—without warning.

“Show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome.” – Charlie Munger

Contributed to Branding Strategy Insider by: Robert Glazer, Founder & CEO, Acceleration Partners

At The Blake Project we are helping clients from around the world, in all stages of development, redefine and articulate what makes them competitive at critical moments of change through online strategy workshops. Please email us for more.

Branding Strategy Insider is a service of The Blake Project: A strategic brand consultancy specializing in Brand Research, Brand Strategy, Brand Growth and Brand Education

FREE Publications And Resources For Marketers